U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus02 kwns 240545 
Storm Prediction Center ac 240545 

Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1245 am CDT Wed Apr 24 2019 

Valid 251200z - 261200z 

..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of 
the lower Mississippi Valley... 

Thunderstorms associated with a wind damage and isolated tornado 
threat will be possible across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley 
on Thursday. 

..lower Mississippi Valley... 
An upper-level low will move eastward into the lower Mississippi 
Valley on Thursday. At the surface, a low with an attendant cold 
front is forecast to move from East Texas into northern Louisiana by 
afternoon. A moist airmass ahead of the front, should destabilize 
during the day as thunderstorms develop along and ahead of the 
front. A pocket of moderate instability will be possible in 
southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi where NAM forecast 
have MLCAPE values peaking near 1500 j/kg. In addition, forecast 
soundings have 0-6 km shear values in the 40 to 50 kt range across 
the lower Mississippi Valley suggesting the shear environment will 
be favorable for severe storms. At this point, storm Mode is still 
in question. Although supercells will be possible with discrete 
cells ahead of the front, a bowing line segment appears the most 
probable form of severe storm development. Wind damage is forecast 
to be the greatest threat although an isolated tornado threat could 
occur with supercells that develop across the moist sector ahead of 
the front, and with rotating cells embedded in the line. 

..maximum risk by hazard... 
Tornado: 5% - slight 
wind: 15% - slight 
hail: 5% - marginal 

.Broyles.. 04/24/2019