- Day Three
acus02 kwns 240545
Storm Prediction Center ac 240545
Day 2 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 am CDT Wed Apr 24 2019
Valid 251200z - 261200z
..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of
the lower Mississippi Valley...
Thunderstorms associated with a wind damage and isolated tornado
threat will be possible across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley
..lower Mississippi Valley...
An upper-level low will move eastward into the lower Mississippi
Valley on Thursday. At the surface, a low with an attendant cold
front is forecast to move from East Texas into northern Louisiana by
afternoon. A moist airmass ahead of the front, should destabilize
during the day as thunderstorms develop along and ahead of the
front. A pocket of moderate instability will be possible in
southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi where NAM forecast
have MLCAPE values peaking near 1500 j/kg. In addition, forecast
soundings have 0-6 km shear values in the 40 to 50 kt range across
the lower Mississippi Valley suggesting the shear environment will
be favorable for severe storms. At this point, storm Mode is still
in question. Although supercells will be possible with discrete
cells ahead of the front, a bowing line segment appears the most
probable form of severe storm development. Wind damage is forecast
to be the greatest threat although an isolated tornado threat could
occur with supercells that develop across the moist sector ahead of
the front, and with rotating cells embedded in the line.
..maximum risk by hazard...
Tornado: 5% - slight
wind: 15% - slight
hail: 5% - marginal