U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus01 kwns 250601 
Storm Prediction Center ac 250600 

Day 1 convective outlook corr 1 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0100 am CDT Mon Mar 25 2019 

Valid 251200z - 261200z 

..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of 
Alabama and Georgia... 

Corrected for hail probabilities 

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of Alabama 
into western Georgia Monday afternoon into early evening. Hail is 
the primary risk. 

..Gulf states... 

Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts two distinct short-wave 
troughs upstream of the Gulf states. One feature is digging 
southeast along the Illinois/MO border while the lower-latitude short wave 
is approaching the arklatex. Deep convection is noted ahead of these 
features at 0530z from northeast Texas into western Kentucky. Latest model 
guidance suggests this activity will propagate southeast and weaken 
by sunrise along a corridor from middle Tennessee into central la. 
Boundary-layer moisture has been slow to recover across the central 
Gulf states and this early-day convection is expected to remain weak 
before spreading into northern Georgia. Redevelopment is expected along a 
pronounced front later in the afternoon. If sufficient low-level 
heating can materialize in the wake of this weak convection/debris, 
isolated surface-based thunderstorms should materialize within a 
veered boundary-layer flow regime ahead of the wind shift. 
Convective temperatures are expected to be breached as temperatures 
warm into the upper 60s/lower 70s. Forecast soundings suggest 
deep-layer shear will support supercell development and large hail 
is the primary risk with convection that evolves within favorably 
forced region of upper trough. This activity is expected to spread 
into portions of Georgia during the late afternoon. 

South of the mid-level jet, along the trailing cold front, 
negligible large-scale forcing/weak low-level convergence will be 
noted along the wind shift into the Upper Texas coast region. It's not 
entirely clear how much convection will evolve along the front 
across southern la west to the Upper Texas coast, but boundary-layer 
heating and favorable buoyancy should be adequate for a few storms. 
Forecast soundings suggest supercell structures are possible and 
hail is the primary concern. 

.Darrow/nauslar.. 03/25/2019 


Mesoscale Discussion

acus11 kwns 250648 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 250647 

Mesoscale discussion 0238 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0147 am CDT Mon Mar 25 2019 

Areas affected...parts of northeast Texas...northwest Louisiana and 
adjacent southern Arkansas 

Concerning...severe potential...watch unlikely 

Valid 250647z - 250815z 

Probability of watch issuance...5 percent 

Summary...some risk for severe hail and wind may linger in stronger 
storms for another hour or two, mainly across the Interstate 20 
corridor of northeast Texas, before likely diminishing by 4-5 am 
CDT. An additional severe weather watch is not anticipated. 

Discussion...the most vigorous thunderstorm development is now 
generally focused west-northwest through north/northeast of Tyler 
TX, within a remnant axis of stronger, but waning boundary layer 
destabilization associated with yesterday's daytime heating, and a 
return flow of Gulf moisture that persists. This now appears to be 
just ahead of a southward advancing surface cold front, which may 
gradually tend to undercut the stronger convection and associated 
unstable boundary layer air through 09-10z, as it progresses across 
the Interstate 20 corridor. As this occurs, storm intensities are 
expected to diminish. Until then, some risk for severe hail and 
gusty surface winds may remain possible in isolated stronger storms 
for another hour or two. 

.Kerr.. 03/25/2019 

..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


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