U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus01 kwns 280546 
Storm Prediction Center ac 280545 

Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1245 am CDT Friday Oct 28 2016 

Valid 281200z - 291200z 

..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 

isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible today across 
parts of California and the intermountain west. No severe 
thunderstorms are expected today or tonight across the United 

An upper-level ridge will move eastward into the middle to upper MS valley 
today as a shortwave trough moves northeastward from coastal California into the 
intermountain west. Surface heating...steep lapse rates and large-scale 
ascent in the vicinity of the shortwave trough should be enough for 
isolated to scattered thunderstorm development in the higher terrain 
this afternoon. No severe thunderstorms are expected across the 
Continental U.S. Today or tonight. 

.Broyles/picca.. 10/28/2016 


Mesoscale Discussion

acus11 kwns 261915 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 261914 

Mesoscale discussion 1807 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0214 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 26 2016 

Areas affected...cntrl/S-cntrl OK 

Concerning...severe potential...watch unlikely 

Valid 261914z - 262115z 

Probability of watch issuance...20 percent 

Summary...some isolated hail and damaging wind gusts are possible 
this afternoon across portions of central and S-central OK. Limited severe 
coverage is expected to preclude the need for a ww. 

Discussion...recent radar imagery has shown a gradual strengthening 
trend with the cluster of thunderstorms over central/E-cntrl OK. This increase 
is likely a result of modest downstream destabilization and the 
arrival of stronger forcing for ascent associated with the 
approaching shortwave trough. However...instability remains tempered 
by a relatively warm-layer between 850 and 700 mb and this lack of 
instability is expected to keep storms mostly sub-severe...despite 
favorable shear profiles promoted by strong middle/upper level flow. 
General expectation is for the current cluster to continue southeastward 
along its outflow with development favored on the SW portion of the 
cluster where instability is somewhat higher as a result of slightly 
warmer temperatures and relatively better low-level moisture. 
Eventually...a more southward motion may result as development along the 
SW flank continues and the flow aloft turns more northerly. 

Sporadic hail and a strong wind gust or two are possible but the 
anticipated transient nature of the strongest updrafts will likely 
preclude the need for a ww. 

.Mosier/Goss.. 10/26/2016 

..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Latitude...Lon 34169782 34989707 35739637 35719560 35469513 34719525 
33909615 33869725 34169782