U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

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Storm Prediction Center ac 260658 

Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0158 am CDT Tue Mar 26 2019 

Valid 281200z - 291200z 

..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 

a strong thunderstorm may occur over parts of Kansas and Oklahoma on 
Thursday evening or Thursday night but an area of organized severe 
thunderstorms is not currently expected. 

A broad mid-level trough over the western U.S. Will gradually move 
east on Thursday. An associated belt of strong flow will extend 
through the base of the trough from the eastern Pacific through The 
Four Corners and into the Central High plains. In the low levels, a 
frontal zone associated with a disturbance moving across the upper 
Great Lakes into Ontario will become draped across the southern 
Great Lakes west-southwestward to a low/triple point over northwest 
OK. Southerly low-level flow over the southern Great Plains will 
contribute to moistening with upper 50s to near 60 degrees f 
dewpoints east of a dryline and south of the front. A Stout capping 
inversion will likely inhibit convective development during the day 
in the warm sector to the east/southeast of the triple point. 
Thursday night storm development seems more probable, both in an 
upslope regime into the Central High plains and near/north of the 
surface front, as a warm advection regime develops over the Central 
Plains. Steep 700-500mb lapse rates may contribute to a stronger 
updraft capable of hail growth within this corridor, but the 
marginal character/limited coverage precludes an outlook area at 
this time. 

.Smith.. 03/26/2019