- Day Three
acus03 kwns 240700
Storm Prediction Center ac 240659
Day 3 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 am CDT sun Mar 24 2019
Valid 261200z - 271200z
..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
severe thunderstorms are not currently expected across the Continental U.S. On
..synopsis and discussion...
Preceding frontal passage on Monday scoured out the favorable
low-level moisture across much of the Southern Plains and southeast,
with offshore flow preventing any return moisture. A shortwave
trough will traverse the southeast but this limited moisture and
instability will preclude thunderstorm development. Some low-level
moisture remains across Florida and deep south Texas but warm temperatures
aloft and the lack of forcing for ascent should temper thunderstorm
Farther west, shortwave ridging will move across the plains, while
several low-amplitude shortwave troughs move through the strong
southwesterly flow extending from off the central California coast into the
northern rockies. Surface Lee troughing will deepen across the
central and southern High Plains and some modest moisture return is
possible within the strengthening southerly/southeasterly winds.
This increasing low-level moisture coupled with convergence along
the Lee trough and orographic enhancement will result in
thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening.
A lightning strike or two is also possible across the Interior
Valley of California during the afternoon and evening and along the northern
California coast overnight. However, thunderstorm coverage is currently
expected to be less than 10%.