U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Day Three

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acus03 kwns 240700 
swody3 
Storm Prediction Center ac 240659 


Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0159 am CDT sun Mar 24 2019 


Valid 261200z - 271200z 


..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
severe thunderstorms are not currently expected across the Continental U.S. On 
Tuesday. 


..synopsis and discussion... 
Preceding frontal passage on Monday scoured out the favorable 
low-level moisture across much of the Southern Plains and southeast, 
with offshore flow preventing any return moisture. A shortwave 
trough will traverse the southeast but this limited moisture and 
instability will preclude thunderstorm development. Some low-level 
moisture remains across Florida and deep south Texas but warm temperatures 
aloft and the lack of forcing for ascent should temper thunderstorm 
chances. 


Farther west, shortwave ridging will move across the plains, while 
several low-amplitude shortwave troughs move through the strong 
southwesterly flow extending from off the central California coast into the 
northern rockies. Surface Lee troughing will deepen across the 
central and southern High Plains and some modest moisture return is 
possible within the strengthening southerly/southeasterly winds. 
This increasing low-level moisture coupled with convergence along 
the Lee trough and orographic enhancement will result in 
thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening. 


A lightning strike or two is also possible across the Interior 
Valley of California during the afternoon and evening and along the northern 
California coast overnight. However, thunderstorm coverage is currently 
expected to be less than 10%. 


.Mosier.. 03/24/2019 


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