U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus03 kwns 240713 
Storm Prediction Center ac 240713 

Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0213 am CDT Wed Apr 24 2019 

Valid 261200z - 271200z 

..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of 
the Florida Peninsula... 

Thunderstorms associated with a marginal wind damage threat are 
expected across parts of the Florida Peninsula on Friday. 

..Florida Peninsula... 
An upper-level trough along with an associated cold front are 
forecast to move eastward to the eastern Seaboard on Friday. Ahead 
of the front, a moist airmass will be in place across the Florida 
Peninsula where surface heating will result in some destabilization 
by afternoon. The models suggest that thunderstorms will initiate 
along the front in the Florida Panhandle and eastern Gulf of Mexico, 
with this convection moving eastward onto the western Florida 
Peninsula during the afternoon. Forecast soundings at Tampa Bay for 
21z on Friday show veered southwest to westerly wind profiles with 
steep low-level lapse rates and about 30 kt of deep-layer shear. 
This should be sufficient for marginally severe wind gusts 
associated with the stronger multicells. The severe threat is 
expected to remain isolated mainly because instability and 
deep-layer shear are expected to be marginal for severe storms. 

.Broyles.. 04/24/2019