U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus03 kwns 290704 
Storm Prediction Center ac 290702 

Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0202 am CDT Monday Aug 29 2016 

Valid 311200z - 011200z 

..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 

scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop on Wednesday from 
the southern and central rockies eastward across the lower to middle 
Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms could also develop across the 
Florida Peninsula on Wednesday and Wednesday night. 

An upper-level trough is forecast to move south-southeastward across the Great 
Lakes region and middle MS valley on Wednesday with a weak extension of 
the trough back into the Central Plains. At the surface...a cold front is 
forecast to move southward into the middle MS valley on Wednesday with a 
moist airmass in place across the southern and Central Plains extending 
into the lower to middle MS valley. Warming surface temperatures during the day on 
Wednesday could result in pockets of moderate instability across 
these regions but deep-layer shear is expected to be insufficient 
for organized convection. 

Concerning Florida...the National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 
tropical storm to develop in the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday/day 1 
and gradually strengthen on Tuesday/day 2. This system is forecast 
by NHC to move into the northeast Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday/day 3 
potentially to the western coast of Florida on Thursday/day 4. The GFS 
solution appears to represent the NHC forecast to some extent and 
suggests that the rainbands associated with the tropical storm may 
remain to the west of the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. Still...a 
marginal tornado threat can not be ruled out late in the day 3 
period across central and southern Florida. This will depend upon the strength 
and actual track of the tropical system. At this time...uncertainty remains 
too substantial for the addition of a marginal risk for day 3 across 
the Florida Peninsula. 

.Broyles.. 08/29/2016