U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Day Three

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acus03 kwns 160731 
swody3 
Storm Prediction Center ac 160730 


Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0230 am CDT sun Jun 16 2019 


Valid 181200z - 191200z 


..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across portions 
of the middle Atlantic into the lower Ohio and Tennessee valleys...and portions 
of the southern/Central Plains... 


... 
Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible on Tuesday across 
parts of the mid Atlantic into the lower Ohio and Tennessee valleys, 
as well as the southern/Central Plains. 


..mid Atlantic into the lower Ohio and Tennessee valleys... 
Yet another low-amplitude shortwave trough should move from the 
lower Ohio/Tennessee valleys into the mid Atlantic on Tuesday. Around 30-40 
kt of mid-level west-southwesterly flow should be present ahead of 
this feature. At the surface, a weak boundary should remain situated 
from southwest to northeast across parts of the Ohio Valley into 
PA/NY. Thunderstorms that form ahead of the shortwave trough and to 
the south of the front may pose an isolated severe risk as they move 
eastward, with moderate to strong buoyancy combining with sufficient 
shear to support occasionally organized updrafts. Given the 
potential for multiple rounds of convection on preceding days across 
these areas, confidence is low in any more than a marginal risk for 
now. 


..southern/Central Plains... 
A gradual increase in west-northwesterly mid-level flow should occur 
across the southern/Central Plains on Tuesday, and related effective 
bulk shear will likewise slowly strengthen through the day. Although 
details regarding convective evolution remain unclear owing to 
subtle influences for large-scale ascent and the potential for 
ongoing convection Tuesday morning, a broad area of severe potential 
is evident across this region as a moist low-level airmass combines 
with diurnal heating to support moderate to strong instability. 
Areas of greater severe hail/wind risk will probably become more 
evident as the influence of convection from prior days becomes 
clearer, and an upgrade to slight risk may eventually be needed for 
some portion of this region. 


.Gleason.. 06/16/2019 


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