- Day Three
acus03 kwns 160731
Storm Prediction Center ac 160730
Day 3 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 am CDT sun Jun 16 2019
Valid 181200z - 191200z
..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across portions
of the middle Atlantic into the lower Ohio and Tennessee valleys...and portions
of the southern/Central Plains...
Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible on Tuesday across
parts of the mid Atlantic into the lower Ohio and Tennessee valleys,
as well as the southern/Central Plains.
..mid Atlantic into the lower Ohio and Tennessee valleys...
Yet another low-amplitude shortwave trough should move from the
lower Ohio/Tennessee valleys into the mid Atlantic on Tuesday. Around 30-40
kt of mid-level west-southwesterly flow should be present ahead of
this feature. At the surface, a weak boundary should remain situated
from southwest to northeast across parts of the Ohio Valley into
PA/NY. Thunderstorms that form ahead of the shortwave trough and to
the south of the front may pose an isolated severe risk as they move
eastward, with moderate to strong buoyancy combining with sufficient
shear to support occasionally organized updrafts. Given the
potential for multiple rounds of convection on preceding days across
these areas, confidence is low in any more than a marginal risk for
A gradual increase in west-northwesterly mid-level flow should occur
across the southern/Central Plains on Tuesday, and related effective
bulk shear will likewise slowly strengthen through the day. Although
details regarding convective evolution remain unclear owing to
subtle influences for large-scale ascent and the potential for
ongoing convection Tuesday morning, a broad area of severe potential
is evident across this region as a moist low-level airmass combines
with diurnal heating to support moderate to strong instability.
Areas of greater severe hail/wind risk will probably become more
evident as the influence of convection from prior days becomes
clearer, and an upgrade to slight risk may eventually be needed for
some portion of this region.