U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus03 kwns 190728 
Storm Prediction Center ac 190727 

Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0227 am CDT Tue Jun 19 2018 

Valid 211200z - 221200z 

..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across the 
southern High Plains...and over parts of the northern rockies... 

Isolated hail is possible on Thursday across parts of the southern 
High Plains and northern rockies. 

In general, northwest flow aloft will stretch from the Pacific 
northwest across the plains and into the lower MS valley on 
Thursday, with embedded shortwave troughs across the northern 
rockies and mid MS valley. The Idaho/Montana trough will be accompanied by a 
cold front which will provide a focus for thunderstorms. 
Northwesterly flow aloft across the southern High Plains and 
sufficient low-level moisture will support a few storms capable of 
hail mainly over northeast nm. 

..southern High Plains... 
Surface winds are likely to veer to southerly by late afternoon 
across southeast Colorado into eastern nm, with 50s f dewpoints into 
eastern nm. Strong heating and increasing upslope flow should lead 
to a few storms, mainly from northeast nm, but possibly continuing 
eastward into the Texas/OK panhandles. Northwesterly flow aloft atop 
light southerly surface winds will lengthen hodographs, supporting a 
few cells capable of severe hail. 

..much of central and southwest Montana and vicinity... 
A cold front will provide a focus for storm development as the 
shortwave trough progresses east across Idaho and into Montana. Cooling 
aloft will support at least 1000 j/kg MUCAPE, with sufficient 
deep-layer shear for a few long-lived storms capable of wind and 

.Jewell.. 06/19/2018