- Day Three
acus03 kwns 240713
Storm Prediction Center ac 240713
Day 3 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 am CDT Wed Apr 24 2019
Valid 261200z - 271200z
..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of
the Florida Peninsula...
Thunderstorms associated with a marginal wind damage threat are
expected across parts of the Florida Peninsula on Friday.
An upper-level trough along with an associated cold front are
forecast to move eastward to the eastern Seaboard on Friday. Ahead
of the front, a moist airmass will be in place across the Florida
Peninsula where surface heating will result in some destabilization
by afternoon. The models suggest that thunderstorms will initiate
along the front in the Florida Panhandle and eastern Gulf of Mexico,
with this convection moving eastward onto the western Florida
Peninsula during the afternoon. Forecast soundings at Tampa Bay for
21z on Friday show veered southwest to westerly wind profiles with
steep low-level lapse rates and about 30 kt of deep-layer shear.
This should be sufficient for marginally severe wind gusts
associated with the stronger multicells. The severe threat is
expected to remain isolated mainly because instability and
deep-layer shear are expected to be marginal for severe storms.