U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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acus01 kwns 242001 
swody1 
Storm Prediction Center ac 242000 


Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0300 PM CDT sun Mar 24 2019 


Valid 242000z - 251200z 


..there is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon 
and evening over parts of the middle Mississippi Valley and arklatex 
regions... 


... 
Severe thunderstorms are expected from North Texas to southern 
Missouri and southwestern Illinois, mainly offering hail and 
damaging gusts. 


..20z update... 
Based on observational trends and short-term guidance, minimal 
updates necessary as slight/enhanced risks appear to capture main 
corridor of severe weather that is expected to unfold through the 
afternoon and evening. See discussion below for additional details. 
Some spatial adjustments were made across the middle Mississippi 
Valley for a northward expansion of mainly isolated/marginal hail 
potential. 


.Guyer.. 03/24/2019 


Previous discussion... /issued 1126 am CDT sun Mar 24 2019/ 


... 
Morning water vapor loop shows a progressive upper low over 
southeast NE, with an associated mid-level speed Max over KS/OK. 
This feature will track eastward today into the middle MS valley, 
providing increasing ascent and deep-layer vertical shear for 
thunderstorm development/organization. Visible imagery shows 
substantial clearing/heating is occurring across southern MO and 
southwest IL, where surface dewpoints are rising into the 50s and 
low level lapse rates are steepening. This should aid in the 
development of scattered thunderstorms by mid-afternoon across 
southern MO. Forecast soundings show shear profiles favorable for 
discrete supercells capable of large hail. The tornado risk will be 
limited by veering low level winds and rather low dewpoint values. 
However, the damaging wind threat should increase as storms track 
eastward into southern Illinois during the late afternoon. Have added an 
enh risk area for hail coverage across parts of southeast MO and 
southwest IL, where 12z cam solutions provide greatest confidence. 


..arklatex region... 
Latest surface analysis shows a weak warm front extending from 
southeast OK into southern Arkansas. The air mass south of this front is 
relatively moist and moderately unstable with dewpoints near 60f. 
Models are consistent in the development of scattered intense storms 
this afternoon, with supercells capable of hail expected. This 
activity is likely to organize into a more linear structure through 
the evening, but continue to pose a risk of hail along with locally 
damaging winds. Activity may remain strong well into the night, 
affecting southeast Arkansas/northeast la and western MS. Similar to 
northern area, parameters and confidence support inclusion of enh 
risk area for afternoon/evening hail risk. 


$$ 

Mesoscale Discussion


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acus11 kwns 242212 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 242211 
ilz000-moz000-arz000-250015- 


Mesoscale discussion 0234 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0511 PM CDT sun Mar 24 2019 


Areas affected...central/southern Missouri and southern Illinois 


Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 32... 


Valid 242211z - 250015z 


The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 32 
continues. 


Summary...the severe threat continues in ww32 with large hail as the 
primary threat. Storms should continue moving east over the next 3-4 
hours. 


Discussion...multiple severe warned storms have developed within 
ww32 along/ahead of a cold front in central/southern Missouri. Large 
hail continues to be the primary severe threat with cold air aloft 
and mostly unidirectional shear through the vertical profile 
yielding around 40-50 knots of effective bulk shear. Damaging wind 
gusts remain possible, but as daytime heating begins to wane, 
low-level lapse rates will diminish limiting this threat. 
Additionally, a brief, weak tornado is possible, but low-level flow 
is relatively weak and surface winds are mostly south-southwest 
limiting srh. Storms should continue moving east across 
central/southern Missouri into southern Illinois through 03z. As the 
cold front slides southeast, the severe threat will diminish across 
ww32 from west to east through the evening. 


.Nauslar/Thompson.. 03/24/2019 


..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Attention...WFO...pah...ilx...Meg...lsx...lzk...sgf...tsa... 


Latitude...Lon 36489349 36579358 36849347 37279312 37949256 38659197 
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37968865 37388892 36958934 36648968 36509013 36499186 
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