U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Today
Tomorrow
Day Three

000 
acus01 kwns 221953 
swody1 
Storm Prediction Center ac 221951 


Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0251 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019 


Valid 222000z - 231200z 


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of 
northeast nm...the OK/Texas Panhandle into western OK and the Texas South 
Plains... 


... 
A few severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the 
Texas/Oklahoma panhandles and South Plains regions, this afternoon 
into early evening. Large hail, locally severe wind gusts, and a 
tornado or two are possible. 


..southern High Plains -- 20z update... 


Low level moisture has been slow to return northward this afternoon, 
with a 52 f dewpoint noted as far north as lbb as of 1930z. Showers 
have also kept temperatures cooler across the northern Texas Panhandle 
where showers and cloud cover have been greater than areas further 
south and east where temperatures had warmed into the mid to upper 
60s. An 18z radiosonde observation from Ama indicated very steep lapse rates, but very 
little instability due to limited heating and a shear profile 
marginally supportive of supercells. A narrow corridor of stronger 
instability was noted in 19z mesoanalysis from the Texas Big Bend 
northward along the nm/Texas border where better heating has occurred 
and marginally better moisture exists. Convection which has 
initiated over eastern nm will continue to track northeast and will 
pose a threat for severe hail, though some stronger wind gusts are 
possible as well. As such, the slight risk has been extended 
westward across a small part of northeast nm to address this trend. 


Storms may try to remain cellular as they develop eastward into the 
Texas Panhandle, but latest hi-res trends suggest linear storm Mode may 
be more likely given a deep boundary layer and only modest 
directional shear in the lowest 3km. A short-lived tornado threat is 
possible early in convective evolution if cells can remain discrete, 
mainly across western to central portions of the Texas Panhandle. The 5 
percent tornado probs have been adjusted slightly based on latest 
guidance and surface obs. Otherwise, several bowing segments are 
expected to develop across the central/eastern OK/Texas panhandles and 
shift eastward into western OK through around 06z. More intense 
bowing segments could continue to pose a severe wind threat into the 
evening hours across parts of far western OK before the threat 
diminishes after 06z toward central OK. The slight and marginal risk 
areas have been expanded eastward to account for this greater 
probability for strong winds given expected bowing convective 
elements and only weak boundary layer cinh through late evening. 


.Leitman.. 03/22/2019 


Previous discussion... /issued 1108 am CDT Fri Mar 22 2019/ 


..southern High Plains... 
Latest visible satellite imagery shows gradual clearing is occurring 
across eastern nm and West Texas. This will encourage boundary-layer 
heating and mixing, allowing low-level moisture to rapidly return to 
this corridor. Surface dewpoints are expected to rise into the 
lower 50s by early afternoon. Meanwhile, water vapor imagery shows 
a well-defined shortwave trough rotating across northwest nm. 
Large-scale ascent ahead of this feature will overspread the 
discussion area by mid-late afternoon, helping to initiate scattered 
thunderstorms. 


Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and 
sufficient MLCAPE for robust updrafts. Strong deep-layer shear and 
favorable low-level hodograph structures also support a few discrete 
supercells capable of large hail (possibly very large) and perhaps a 
tornado or two. Storms are expected to congeal into one or more 
linear structures capable of gusty/damaging winds as they move 
eastward into a progressively more stable environment and weaken. 


$$ 

Mesoscale Discussion


000 
acus11 kwns 222234 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 222233 
txz000-okz000-nmz000-230000- 


Mesoscale discussion 0225 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0533 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019 


Areas affected...Texas Panhandle 


Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 30... 


Valid 222233z - 230000z 


The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 30 
continues. 


Summary...strong/severe thunderstorms will spread across portions of 
the Texas Panhandle this evening. Large hail and damaging winds remain 
the primary threats. 


Discussion...leading edge of large-scale forcing for ascent is 
spreading across northeast nm into the Texas Panhandle. In response to 
this forcing, convection has gradually increased in areal extent and 
intensity from the northern Texas Panhandle, southwest into Deaf Smith 
County. This activity appears to be evolving into a small mesoscale convective system that 
should propagate east across the Texas Panhandle as low level jet increases then 
veers toward western OK. While isolated supercells have been the 
predominate Mode early, forcing should encourage storm mergers that 
will lead to a squall line over the next few hours. Wind/hail are 
the primary threats as this complex matures and shifts east. 


.Darrow.. 03/22/2019 


..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Attention...WFO...lub...Ama...abq... 


Latitude...Lon 34510313 35550280 36510174 35880100 34330235 34510313