Iras, Chuuk, Federated States of Micronesia Severe Weather Alertstar_ratehome

...INVEST 90W NOW THE SUBJECT OF AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT NEAR CHUUK...

Over the past 24 hours, Invest 90W has shown an improved convective
signature with good poleward outflow aloft (a sign that the system
may be strengthening). As such, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has
upgraded Invest 90W to a TCFA (Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert),
meaning the formation of a tropical cyclone (tropical depression
strength or stronger) is likely within the next 24 hours. Overall,
the models continue to showN a gradually strengthening system the
next several days, with current forecast tracks taking the system
through western Chuuk State and eastern to east central Yap State,
with a passage south of Guam.

This will likely bring locally heavy rainfall, sustained winds of 35
knots or more (with higher gusts), and an increasingly hazardous sea
state. Rainfall amounts in the 4 to 8 inch range, with locally
higher amounts, are possible for all of Chuuk State westward through
at least eastern Yap State. This could then expand further west
across central Yap state over the weekend, dependent on how quickly
90W strengthens and what track it ends up taking. Locations currently
to be most affected through early Monday morning include:

Generally north of 6N:

In Chuuk State:
Chuuk, Losap, Fananu, Onoun, and Polowat.

In eastern and Central Yap State (most probable):
Pikelot, West Fayu, Gaferut, Faraulep, Fais, and Ulithi.

In the remainder of Yap State (possible):
Satawal, Lamotrek, Olimargo, Ifalik, Eauripik, Sorol, and Yap
proper.

Residents are urged to pay close attention the next few days to your
local emergency management, the National Weather Service Guam webpage
(which can be found at www.weather.gov/gum), information put out by
Weather Service Offices Chuuk and Yap, and our social media pages.

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CHST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Large breaking waves of 7 to 9 feet.

* WHERE...North facing reefs of Chuuk.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM ChST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and
localized beach erosion.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The trade surge has relaxed over the
region, however, a tropical disturbance has taken its place
allowing for surf to remain high along north facing reefs. The
disturbance is expected to move farther to the northwest over the
next few days. This will allow the surf to fall below the 9 foot
threshold for High Surf Advisory.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to
dangerous surf conditions.

&&

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CHST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds 10 to 20 kt with frequent gusts up to 30 kt
and seas 7 to 10 feet.

* WHERE...Chuuk Coastal Waters.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM ChST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...As Invest 90W continues to develop, the
wind field is anticipated to expand over Chuuk's coastal waters.
The latest satellite trends show the system is slowly moving
west-southwest at an estimated speed of 5 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid boating in hazardous conditions.

...DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE TO BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY
WINDS...AND CHOPPY SEAS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

Corrected typos

A tropical disturbance, known as JTWC's Invest 90W, is centered near
9N154E northeast of Weno, Chuuk. This system is slowly consolidating
as it continues to move to the northwest, likely to move north of
Chuuk as stronger southwesterlies develop overhead. The chance of
this system developing into a significant tropical cyclone during its
closest approach near Chuuk remains low. However, the proximity of
this system is expected to bring heavier showers, strong winds and
possibly near gale-force gusts late today and potentially overnight.
Due to the loose organization of 90W, variability in areas of
convective development may produce periods of little to no weather
followed by sporadic heavy showers and thunderstorms. In addition,
high uncertainty remains regarding rainfall amounts, but model trends
indicate 3 to 5 inches at Weno, Chuuk the next 48 hours, to then
possibly be higher at outer islands such as Fananu and eastern islands
of Yap State. By the weekend, conditions are expected to improve
considerably at Weno as 90W continues to move away from the area to
the west-northwest, where showers and winds may become more impactful
across eastern Yap State.

Combined seas are expected to remain just below hazardous criteria
for small craft, but likely to become hazardous during the weekend
across Chuuk State and eastern Yap State as more significant
northerly swells and much higher local wind waves develop. Seas will
become more choppy over the next several days, so mariners must
continue to monitor the latest marine forecasts before venturing out
to the outer islands.

Residents and mariners should monitor the latest forecasts for the
region at weather.gov/gum/PublicForecasts and any information shared
by WSO Palau and WSO Yap for their local regions.