Invest 92L Could Develop Into a Tropical Cyclone Early This Week; Heavy Rain, Gusty Winds Expected Along Southeast Coast

Chris Dolce
Published: August 27, 2017

An area of low pressure off the Southeast coast has become better organized and it could become the next Atlantic tropical cyclone early this week. 

This weather system, for now, has been dubbed Invest 92L – a naming convention used to identify features that have a chance to develop into a tropical depression or storm – by the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

(MORE: Invest Explained)

The NHC has given Invest 92L a high chance of formation into a tropical depression or storm within the next day or so before it merges with a front. The next named storm in the Atlantic would be "Irma."


Invest 92L Potential Development Area

The latest forecast guidance suggests the area of low pressure will track northeastward away from Florida and parallel to the Southeast coast. A southward dip in the jet stream across the eastern United States would be responsible for sending this system northeastward.

This area of low pressure is expected to strengthen as it moves northeastward regardless of whether or not it is tropical in nature. It is also possible that this system will merge with a front in the region before development occurs.

(MORE: Hurricane Central)

Early Week Forecast

In the near-term, this system will continue to enhance rainfall in the Florida Peninsula. That rainfall could contribute to localized flooding from a tropical moisture surge associated with this system.

A flood watch remains in effect for parts of southern Florida where periods of heavy rainfall over saturated ground may lead to flooding.

Sarasota, Florida received 8.12 inches of rainfall on Saturday and 12.24 inches since Wednesday. Other impressive rainfall totals since Wednesday include 8.25 inches in Fort Myers and 6.49 inches in Naples.

(MAPS: Weekly Planner)

Additional rainfall is expected Sunday into Monday across the Florida peninsula, before this system moves out of the area.


Forecast Through Tuesday

Depending on how closely the low tracks to the Southeast coast early this week, areas as far north as the coastal Carolinas could see bands of heavy rain.

Additionally, the low-pressure system in tandem with strong high pressure over the Northeast will create an onshore wind flow. That would result in gusty northeast winds, high surf, rip currents and possible coastal flooding from Georgia to the mid-Atlantic.

Here is a breakdown of where impacts may be experienced early this week:

  • Sunday: Heavy rain and gusty winds are possible from South Florida into coastal Georgia and the southern coast of South Carolina.
  • Monday: Rain and thunderstorms linger in Florida and spread into eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia.
  • Tuesday: Rain and gusty winds are expected along the mid-Atlantic coast.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected along the Southeast coast, with locally higher amounts. Rough surf, rip currents and coastal flooding are also anticipated Monday and Tuesday along the coast from Georgia to the mid-Atlantic.

(MORE: Where Every U.S. Landfalling Hurricane Began Its Journey)


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