Severe Storms, Including a Few Tornadoes, Possible in the Southern Plains Sunday

Brian Donegan
Published: January 15, 2017

Severe thunderstorms are expected to flare up Sunday and Monday in parts of the southern Plains on the warm side of Winter Storm Jupiter.

(MORE: Winter Storm Jupiter a Major Ice Threat)

The setup involves a compact upper-level low pressure system pivoting out of northern Mexico over a somewhat warm and humid air mass over parts of the southern Plains.

Severe thunderstorms with mainly penny-sized hail were reported in southern New Mexico Saturday evening, covering the ground and causing some vehicle damage in Alamogordo.

Current Radar

Here's a look at what to expect.

Severe Weather Forecast

Sunday/Sunday Night

  • Scattered severe thunderstorms should develop by afternoon in far west Texas.
  • Tonight, a line of thunderstorms, some of which will be severe, will push into north-central and central Texas 
  • The primary severe threats will be damaging straight-line winds and hail.
  • However, a few tornadoes are possible in west and central Texas both in any discrete supercells and embedded in the line of storms tonight.

Thunderstorm Forecast

Monday/Monday Night

  • The severe threat will be lower, but a few severe storms are possible from east Texas into northwest Louisiana and Arkansas.
  • Strong straight-line winds will be the primary severe threat.
  • Heavy rain and local flash flooding will also be a threat, as these storms may only move very slowly east.

Monday's Thunderstorm Forecast

(MAPS: 7-Day Rain/Snow Forecast)

Rainfall Outlook

In general, 1 to 2 inches of rain are expected across parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and northwest Louisiana through Monday night, with a few spots seeing more than 3 inches, especially in east Texas.

Rainfall Forecast

A widespread and major flood event is unexpected at this time, since this rain falls over a period of several days.

However, localized flooding cannot be ruled out where any areas of heavy rain stall over the same location for several consecutive hours, known as training.

(MORE: January Thaw Ahead for Parts of South, East)

MORE: Flooding in Texas

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