marine weather discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 138 PM EST sun Feb 19 2017
Marine weather discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and tropical North Atlantic from 07n to 19n between 55w and 64w and the southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
...Gulf of Mexico...
Model preference: global model consensus. High confidence through Tuesday night...then low thereafter.
Weak high pressure across the eastern Gulf and low pressure analyzed across Texas and north-central and NE Mexico is supporting gentle to moderate se winds this afternoon. Buoy data and ship observations indicate seas are generally 2-3 ft in the NE and far SW Gulf and 3-5 ft across the NW and central portions of the Gulf. Winds are forecast to increase into fresh to strong levels through Monday morning across the western half of the Gulf as the pressure gradient strengthens. An elongated low pressure area and associated troughing will emerge off the se Texas coast Monday and move eastward into the central waters by Tuesday. Model guidance shows the elongated troughing and associated broad low pressure remaining nearly stationary across the central waters Tuesday night through Wednesday night late and then dissipating on Thursday. Due to a continued lack of model consensus...as last night's ECMWF run carried the low farther east...confidence in the extended portion of the forecast is low.
...Caribbean Sea and tropical N Atlantic from 07n to 19n between 55w and 64w...
Model preference: global model consensus. High confidence.
High pressure N-NE of the Caribbean is maintaining moderate to occasional fresh easterly to southeast flow across the waters... except near the Gulf of Honduras and along the coast of Colombia between 73w and 77w where a fresh to strong nocturnal pulse is expected for one more overnight period tonight into Monday morning with seas topping out at 8-10 ft. Seas are generally 3-5 ft...except 5-8 ft in the aforementioned areas of stronger winds. A broad low pressure system in the NW Gulf of Mexico is forecast to develop Tuesday and will help to weaken the pressure gradient in the Caribbean Wednesday and Thursday. As a result... relatively tranquil marine conditions are expected Tuesday through Thursday.
...SW N Atlantic including the Bahamas...
Model preference: global model consensus. Moderate to high confidence.
High pressure centered near 28n64w will shift E-NE overnight tonight while an area of low pressure focused on a 1015 mb low centered near 31n77w and the associated forming cold front extending S-SW to the Florida coast near Jupiter will continue moving E-se and deepen slightly to a position of 28n67w by Monday night. An area of scattered showers and tstms has moved well east of the boundary in a line extending from 28n73w to 27n77w at 19/1800 UTC. Scatterometer data and buoy observations show gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across most of the forecast area with seas generally 3-5 ft W of 70w...and 5-7 ft elsewhere. By Monday night...the cold front will be located across the northeastern zones and begin to dissipate. A new cold front is forecast to move into the area from the NW and clip the NE zones introducing a new round of fresh to strong northerly winds Monday through Tuesday generally E of 72w. Seas are expected to range from 7-9 ft in the area of maximum winds W of the front. High pressure across the se conus will slowly shift E-se Tuesday through Thursday.
.Warnings...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS ii collaboration chat, or by telephone:
.Gulf of Mexico... None.
.Caribbean Sea and tropical N Atlantic from 07n to 19n between 55w and 64w... none.
.SW N Atlantic including the Bahamas... None.
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/abouttafbprod.Shtml#owf
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National digital forecast database (ndfd) at: http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/marine/grids.Php
For additional information, please visit: http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/marine
.Forecaster Huffman. National Hurricane Center.