Marine Weather for HS 015

Forecast
weather bulletin for the high seas for Metarea VII. East of 20e. Issued by the South African Weather Service on the 17th of October 2017 at 17:00 UTC.

For southeast sector of Metarea VII, prepared by reunion, see area 2 below.

Note: wx observations. ====================== Could all vessels experiencing unexpected, severe wx/sea state please make every effort to report this to saws via cape town radio.

Area 1: ======= forecast valid from 172200 to 182200 utc:

Wind in knots, wave heights in meters. No sea state given if waves less than 3m.

Note the wind speeds quoted here are the expected average speeds. Individual gusts may exceed these values by a factor of up to 1.5. Wave heights are significant wave heights which may be accompanied by individual waves 1.5 to 2.0 times higher.

These estimates of winds and waves do not take into account the enhancing effects of the Agulhas Current off the South African East Coast.

Gale warnings: ============== 1. Cape east: W to SW 35 in the central parts, spreading to the east by mid period. 2. Durban east: W to SW 35 in the south-east

Synoptic situation at 12:00z ============================= high 1034 hpa 34s28w. Low 1014 hpa 37s05w low 1010 hpa 33s33e low 970 hpa 54s04w low 994 hpa 37s43e.

1. Cold front: 28s16w 30s07w 35s04e 40s10e 45s11e 50s09e 55s04e into 54s04w. 2. Cold front: 27s37e 30s42e 35s46e into 37s43e.

Area forecast: ============== cape east (32.5s/40s, 20e/50e) wind : W to SW 20 to 30, reaching 35 in the central parts, spreading to the east by mid period, becoming N to NW 15 to 25 in the west in the first period. Vis : moderate in showers and thundershowers. Sea state: 3.5 to 4.5m, reaching 5.0 to 8.0m in places in the central parts spreading to the east in the second period, with W to SW swell.

Durban east (25s/32.5s, East Coast/55e) wind : N to NW 15 to 25 in the east in the first period, otherwise W to SW 20 to 30, reaching 35 in the south-east but S to se 15 to 25 in the north-west, becoming N to NE 15 to 25 in the west in the second period. Vis : moderate in showers and thundershowers in the south, otherwise good. Sea state: 3.0m, reaching 4.5 to 6.0m in the South-West, with SW swell.

Mozambique channel: wind : NE to N 10 to 20 but S to se 15 to 25 in the South-West spreading northwards, and reaching 30 in places in the south. Vis : good, but moderate with showers in the south in the first period. Sea state: 2.5 to 3.0m in the south, with SW swell.

Madagascar east: wind : se to E 10 to 20 in the north, otherwise NE 15 to 25, becoming SW to NW 10 to 20 in the second period. Vis : good, but moderate with showers in the south in the second period.

Marion forties east (40s/50s, 35e/50e) wind : NW 20 to 30 in the north at first, otherwise SW to S 15 to 25, reaching 30 in the north in the second period. Vis : good. Sea state: 3.0 to 3.6, reaching 4.0 to 5.0m in the extreme north, with SW to W swell.

Area 2: ======== marine meteorological bulletin from Meteo-France/La Reunion on area ack (amsterdam-Crozet-kerguelen)

Date: 17/10/17 at 1700 UTC

Averaged wind speed on Beaufort scale. (Wind gusts may be stronger than averages given here).

Part 1: warning : gale force 8 running or forecasted over all the areas.

Part 2: general synopsys, 17/10/17 a 1200 UTC : - high 1025 hpa near 31s/80e, extending by ridge towards ams, moving north-eastern slowly. - Cold front cf axis 33s/58e, 35s/70e, 40s/76e, 45s/75e, 48s/70e, with a clockwise 993 hpa near 50s/64e, moving eastward 20/25kt. Cold front cg axis 30s/41e, 35s/45e, 43s/45e, moving eastward 20/25kt.

Part 3: forecast for 24 hours from 17/10/17 at 1800 UTC to 17/10/18 at 1800 UTC : wam (30s/40s,50e/65e) : frontal rains and showers with cg. Wind: northwesterly 4/5 increasing 6/7, locally 8 over far southeastern area ahead of cg backing WNW 5/7 behind. Sea: moderate to rough, locally very rough. Moderate westerly swell. Vis: poor in precipitations.

Ams (30s/40s,65e/80e) : frontal showers with cf, then rains and showers with cg. Wind: northwest 4 to 6 from northern to southern, increasing locally 8 over far southwestern area ahead of cf. Sea: moderate to rough, locally very rough. Moderate westerly swell. Vis: poor in precipitations.

Cro (40s/50s,50e/65e) : frontal rains and showers, squalls with cg. Wind: westerly 3/5, increasing quicky NW 6/7 ahead of cg, becoming clockwise 7/8 over southern. Sea: moderate to rough locally very rough. Moderate northwesterly swell, becoming locally heavy. Vis: poor in precipitations.

Ker (40s/50s,65e/80e) : frontal rains and showers, squalls. Wind : northwesterly 4 to 6 from southern to northern, increasing 7/8 ahead of cg in second period. Sea : moderate to rough, becoming very rough. Moderate northwesterly swell. Vis: poor under precipitations.

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