For southeast sector of Metarea VII, prepared by reunion, see area 2 below.
Note: wx observations. ====================== Could all vessels experiencing unexpected, severe wx/sea state please make every effort to report this to saws via cape town radio.
Area 1: ======= forecast valid from 231000 to 241000 utc:
Wind in knots, wave heights in meters. No sea state given if waves less than 3m.
Gale warnings: ============== nil.
Synoptic situation at 06:00z ============================= high 1022 hpa 34s22w high 1022 hpa 40s35e low 986 hpa 59s32e low 976 hpa 60s15e low hpa 1012 3044e.
1. Cold front: 50s29e 55s36e into 59s32e into 60s15e
Area forecast: ============== cape east (32.5s/40s, 20e/35e). Wind : E to NE 15 to 25 in the west, otherwise se 15 to 25, reaching 30 in places over the North-East. Vis : good, but moderate in showers and rain in places, except the north-west, but poor in places in the North-East. Sea state: 3.0m in places over the central northern parts, subsiding, mainly SW swell.
Durban east (25s/32.5s, East Coast/55e) wind : E to se 15 to 25 in the west, but N to NE 10 to 20 but NW 10 in the South West. Vis : moderate to poor in showers and rain. Sea state: 3.0m in the South-West, mainly E to se swell.
Mozambique channel: wind : N to NW 10 in the north, otherwise variable 05. Vis : moderate in showers and thundershowers in places.
Madagascar east: wind : se 05 to 15 in the extreme north-west, otherwise E to NE 10 to 20. Vis : moderate in showers in places.
Marion forties east: (40s/50s, 35e/50e) wind : NW 15 to 25 but SW 10 in the north west. Vis : good, but moderate in showers and rain in the South West.
Area 2: ======= marine meteorological bulletin from Meteo-France/La Reunion on area ack (amsterdam-Crozet-kerguelen)
Date: 17/02/23 at 0500utc
Averaged wind speed on Beaufort scale. (Wind gusts may be about 40% stronger than the averages given here.).
Part 1: warning : nil.
Part 2: general synopsys, 17/02/23 at 0000 UTC : - low pressure area 990 hpa between 51s/67e and 49s/79e, quickly moving eastward and deepening. - Cold front axis : 38s/48e, 42s/65e, 40s/81e, 44s/88e, 52s/85e, with before convective area over south of ams, crossing area. - Convective area axis 32s/42e, 35s/45e, 37s/49e crossing wam over period. - Filling high 1025 hpa near 33s/95e, associated ridge extending to 60e. - New ridge high reaching west of area over cro.
Part 3: forecast for 24 hours from 17/02/23 at 0600 UTC to 17/02/24 at 0600utc :
Wam (30s/40s,50e/65e) : squalls and showers. Wind: temporarily northwest 4/6 over northwestern area to before convection, then becoming variable 2 to 4 from west, locally increasing southeast 4/6 in southern at behind convection. Sea : moderate. Visi: very poor in squalls.
Ams (30s/40s,65e/80e) :showers and squalls mainly over southern. Wind: mainly northwest 4 to 6, soon backing southwest 3 to 5 in south, behind convective area. Gusts in convective area. Sea : moderate, at times rough in south. Visi: very poor in squalls.
Cro (40s/50s,50e/65e) :showers, clearing from eastern. Wind: south-westerly 5 or 6, at times 7, decreasing and becoming anticlockwise 3 to 5 at over western area but west 5/6 over southern area. Sea : moderate to rough. Moderate W to SW swell. Visi: poor in precipitations then good
Ker (40s/50s,65e/80e) :showers over southern area. Wind: southwesterly 5/7 with gusts. Sea : moderate to rough. W to SW swell increasing moderate at end. Visi: poor in precipitations