Marine Weather for HS 015

Forecast
weather bulletin for the high seas for Metarea VII.East of 20e. Issued by the South African Weather Service on the 16th of July 2019 at 08:30 UTC.

For south-east sector of Metarea. VII, prepared by reunion, see area 2 below.

Note: wx observations. ====================== Could all vessels experiencing unexpected, severe wx/sea state please make every effort to report this to saws via cape town radio.

Area 1: ======= forecast valid from 161000 to 171000 utc:

Wind in knots, wave heights in meters. No sea state given if waves less than 3m.

Note the wind speeds quoted here are the expected average speeds. Individual gusts may exceed these values by a factor of up to 1.5. Wave heights are significant wave heights which may be accompanied by individual waves 1.5 to 2.0 times higher. These estimates of winds and waves do not take into account the enhancing effects of the Agulhas Current off the South African East Coast.

Gale force warnings: ==================== 1. Cape west: NE to N 35 in places in the west spreading to the central and eastern parts.

2. Gough forties: SW to S 35 in the east from evening. 3. Meteor forties: cyclonic 35 in the north moving east 4. Marion forties east: NW to W 35 in places in the south from afternoon.

Synoptic situation 06:00z: ========================== high 1026 hpa 22s03e high 1034 hpa 30s61e low 1002 hpa 34s19w low 998 hpa 37s12w low 994 hpa 38s02w low 998 hpa 41s10e

1. Cold front: 23s21w 30s08w 35s01w into 38s02w

Area forecast ============== meteor forties (40s/50s, 00e/20e) wind : cyclonic 25 to 35 in the north moving east, otherwise S to se 15 to 25 but SW to W 10 to 20 in the extreme south. Vis : moderate to poor in showers and rain, but good at times. Sea state: 3.5 to 4.5, reaching 5.0 to 7.0m in the south-east, subsiding from overnight, SW swell.

Cape east (32.5s/40s, 20e/50e) wind : NE to N 15 to 25 in the otherwise N to NW 15 to 25 but variable 05 to 10 in the south. It will become NW 20 to 30 in the west towards the end of the period. Vis : good. Sea state: 3.0 to 4.0m, reaching 4.5 to 5.0m in the west, subsiding towards the end of the period, SW swell.

Durban east: wind : NE to N 15 to 25 in the west but variable 10 to 15 in the South-West at first. Vis : good. Sea state: 3.0m in the east, SW swell.

Mozambique channel: wind : S to se 15 to 25, becoming variable 05 to 10 in the south overnight. Vis : good.

Madagascar east: wind : se to E 15 to 25, reaching 30 in places in the north. Vis : good but moderate in showers in places in the west and in the North. Sea state: 3.0 to 4.0m, SW swell but south-easterly in the North.

Marion forties east (40s/50s, 35e/50e): wind : SW 10 to 15 in the extreme north, otherwise NW to W 20 to 30, reaching 35 in places in the south from afternoon. It will become N to NE 15 to 25 in the northwest from evening vis : moderate in showers at first, otherwise good. Sea state: 3.5 to 4.5m, reaching 5.0 to 6.0m in the south, SW swell.

Area 2: ======== marine meteorological bulletin from Meteo-France/La Reunion on area ack (amsterdam-Crozet-kerguelen)

Date: 19/07/16 at 0500utc

Averaged wind speed on Beaufort scale. (Wind gusts may be about 40%

Stronger than the averages given here.).

Part 1: warning:strorm espected over ker, strong gale running over cro, gale expected over ams.

Part 2: general synopsys, 19/07/16 at 0000 UTC :

- low 976 hpa near 52s/57e, moving eastward. Warm front wf 45s/68e,

50s/65e, 53s/60e, 51s/57e. Cold front cf 51s/57e, 51s/60e, 50s/62e,

47s/63e, 45s/62e, 43s/60e, 41s/50e.

- High 1034 hpa near 31s/52e, moving eastward.

Part 3: forecast for 24 hours from 16/07/19 at 0600 UTC to 17/07/19

At 0600utc :

Wam (30s/40s,50e/65e) :frontal rain cf in south.

Wind: W 4/6 in south becoming anticlockwise 3/5.

Sea: rough to very rough, becoming moderate in northwest soon. Long

SW swell 3/4m decreasing 2/3m later. Cross sea in south.

Visi: poor in cf.

Ams (30s/40s,65e/80e) :showers and squalls, frontal rain cf in south later.

Wind: W 4/6 in south, locally 7/8 over far southern soon,

Anticlockwise 2/4 in north.

Sea: very rough, becoming rough in north. Long SW swell 5m decreasing

3/4m later. Cross sea in south.

Visi: poor in cf.

Cro (40s/50s,50e/65e) : frontal rain cf in north at first, showers and squalls soon.

Wind: W 8/9 with severe gusts in southeast, but W 4/6 in northwest,

Becoming anticlockwise 3/5 in northwest later.

Sea: very rough to high becoming rough in northwest. Long WSW swell

3/4m.

Visi: poor in cf.

Ker (40s/50s,65e/80e) : frontal rain or snow (wf, cf), showers and squalls soon.

Wind: NW to W 7/8 in west, increasing 9 in southwest soon, then 10

Later, but decreasing W 5/6 in northwest soon. N 4/6 in east,

Increasing 7/8 soon. Severe gusts.

Sea : rough to very rough becoming very rough to high locally very

High over far southern at end. Long WSW swell 3/4m increasing 5m

Later.

Visi: poor to very poor in precipitations.

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