NOAA’s latest climate update about one of the biggest drivers for this spring and summer is here.

Rain and storms look to threaten your Valentine’s weekend plans across much of the South. A few strong to severe storms could produce large hail or tornadoes as they rumble across western Texas Friday night. The severe threat shifts east to include much of Texas, Louisiana and parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas on Saturday. Damaging winds will be the main threat in places like Dallas, Houston, San Antonio and Shreveport. Any rain that falls will be beneficial for drought-stricken locations, however too much rain in a short period of time could lead to flooding. The severe threat will shift further east around the Gulf Coast by Sunday. Watch this video for your latest hour-by-hour forecast.

As Milan hosts the Winter Olympics, southern Italy is battling catastrophic flooding. Firefighters in Cosenza pulled off 50 water rescues in a single day after the Busento River burst its banks, forcing families and pets to evacuate by raft. Meanwhile, 300 firefighters in Sardinia worked overnight clearing fallen trees and helping secure a ship torn from its moorings by extreme winds. This is the reality of extreme weather hitting Italy's infrastructure at the worst possible time.

A new crack in the iced-over Lake Erie is so huge, you can see it from space. The massive opening stretches for dozens of miles, and it’s coming with a warning about the danger of venturing out onto the frozen, but unstable landscape.

A rapid warming trend will continue into Valentine's weekend. Temperatures 20 to 30 degrees above average are forecast across the Plains with highs in the 60s as far north as South Dakota. The ridge of high pressure and the core of the warmth will shift east next week, allowing the Northeast to finally get in on the warmer weather fun. Watch this video for the latest forecast.