WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

July 22, 2011: A day of records

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:56 PM GMT on July 23, 2011

The crest of the extreme heat wave of July 2011 has passed, although temperatures are still going to be dangerously hot in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. New York City (Central Park) will reach 100° again, as well as Philadelphia and possibly Washington Dulles. Heat index values could surpass the 110° mark today, and excessive heat warnings are in effect from New York City to South Carolina, as well as a large portion of the Central United States. Yesterday, the heat index soared past 120° in Wilmington, DE (124), Easton, MD (125), Annapolis, MD (120) and Atlantic City, NJ (122), among others. A more complete list of Friday's heat index extremes can be found here.

Numerous records fell yesterday as far north as Maine. There were plenty of daily records to talk about, but here are some of the noteworthy all-time record high temperatures:

Newark, NJ: 108° (old record was 105° set in 2001)
Washington Dulles, DC: 105° (old record was 104° on multiple dates)
Bridgeport, CT: 103° (ties the old record set in 1957)
Hartford, CT: 103° (old record was 102° set on multiple dates)
New Haven, CT: 102° (old record was 101° set in 1926)

Baltimore hit 106°, one degree shy of their all-time high record which was set in 1936. New York City (Central Park) set a daily record of 104°, which was 2 degrees shy of their 106° all-time high record, which was also set in 1936. More on the record-setting year of 1936 in yesterday's blog from Jeff. Two notable all-time record high minimums were also set yesterday: 84° in New York (Central Park) and 86° in Newark, NJ.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, keeps track of 303 select stations in the U.S. with long standing record histories. So far this summer, seven of these have broken or tied their all-time maximum temperature records. Some of these were long-standing:

• Amarillo, TX 111° (1892)
• Dodge City, KS 110° (1874 tied)
• Newark, NJ 108° (1893)
• D.C. Dulles 105° (1962)
• Tallahassee, Fl 105° (1883)
• Hartford, CT 103° (1885)
• New Haven, CT 102° (1780)

The last summer to have more all-time high records than this year was 2002, which set 9. Christopher C. Burt estimates that yesterday probably rates in the top five hottest days on record for the mid-Atlantic states (Washington D.C. to Boston).

Invest 90L


Satellite imagery of NHC Invest 90L this morning.

Invest 90L is looking ragged on satellite as it makes its way across the Caribbean islands. While this wave looked ripe for eventual development earlier this week, it has really taken a turn for the worse as it moved across the Main Development Region of the North Atlantic. Today, low level circulation is could favorably be described as less than moderate, and almost nonexistent at higher levels. Today, not one of the global models I've looked at (ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, or GFS) develop 90L, but they are coming into better agreement that the wave's track will be across the Caribbean islands and into the Gulf of Mexico, rather than up the east coast of Florida. This could be one of the reasons the models are not suggesting development—too much land interaction, not enough time over open warm waters. However, its hard to say that this wave will not show some signs of improvement when it reaches the Gulf. Water will be toasty, moisture will be relatively high, and wind shear will remain incredibly low. Today the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. My forecast has been the same for the past two days, right around 20% chance of development over the lifetime of the wave.

Thanks to our weather historian Christopher C. Burt for some useful information on heat waves and yesterday's records. I'll have another blog on Monday.

Angela

Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Link

Crown Weather TWD spells it all out for 90L.


He is a bit bullish. However, 90L is no longer.
Quoting clwstmchasr:


He is a bit bullish. However, 90L is no longer.
I disagree. Vorticity has increased somewhat which leads me to believe SOMETHING is still there.
Morning everybody... que bola, as they used to say in Cuba one time ago?

Here we had overnight showers, but nothing windy enough to wake me up.... lol...

self designated king of the wishcasters?
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
You do see that whatever 90L becomes is expected to move into Central or South Texas. I know it is much needed.


Yes. It would be great! I hope it's a rain maker for a lot of my neighbors to the south. We may get some up here on the upper coast too. I know this isn't Dolly but we got rain from her outer bands so fingers crossed. Depending on where it rounds the edge of this high it could be very beneficial. :)
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Yes. It would be great! I hope it's a rain maker for a lot of my neighbors to the south. We may get some up here on the upper coast too. I know this isn't Dolly but we got rain from her outer bands so fingers crossed. Depending on where it rounds the edge of this high it could be very beneficial. :)
Dolly was a real rainmaker. She was not designated until right after she passed us but brought flooding rains and very gusty winds.
Rather impressive TWave coming into view at 30W.



sweet spot?
90L RIP
Quoting stormpetrol:
First time since I started looking at the vorticity with this that it looks like one circulation rather than a "twinnie"... Now we may see some interesting things today. Though with the ULLs to the west of it not sure how that will work...
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Yes. It would be great! I hope it's a rain maker for a lot of my neighbors to the south. We may get some up here on the upper coast too. I know this isn't Dolly but we got rain from her outer bands so fingers crossed. Depending on where it rounds the edge of this high it could be very beneficial. :)
The Heat Goes On ... And On ... And On


There's no relief in sight the last week of July as temperatures will remain above average with highs in the low 100s. Heat index values will make it feel as if the temperatures is near 110 degrees each afternoon.


Each evening, expect temperatures to fall into the 80s around midnight and then eventually into the upper 70s by sunrise. Skies will remain clear with a few clouds developing in the morning.








The ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere will be in control of our weather for the next several days. It will keep a lid on our atmosphere meaning no rain through the week. Highs Monday through Wednesday will be between 100 and 105 for much of the area. The high will move east of the area by the end of the week resulting in more cloud cover and a small drop in afternoon highs. Specifics are found on the YNN 8 Day Forecast.


A tropical wave in the Caribbean has only a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. This very low chance is due to its interaction with the land masses of Hispaniola and Cuba during the next few days. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are accompaning this disturbance. The computer models are still taking this system into the Gulf heading to the coast of Mexico by the end of the week. Just one model carries the system to Texas.

Unfortunately the High Pressure system is stuck over the Center Part of Texas, any rain chances will be on the outer edges of Texas unfortunately.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I disagree. Vorticity has increased somewhat which leads me to believe SOMETHING is still there.
Best vorticity since it entered the CAR, IIRC... most forecasters were not expecting much from this storm before today, so I guess if anything happens it'll be in this 48 hour period... still not really slowing down, though.
Quoting Chicklit:
Rather impressive TWave coming into view at 30W.



sweet spot?
That's down around 6N, right?
Quoting BahaHurican:
That's down around 6N, right?


Yes, Baha. It is still pretty close to the equator.



Levi cited a model yesterday that develops it but still a ways out fo sho.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I disagree. Vorticity has increased somewhat which leads me to believe SOMETHING is still there.


I meant that 90L was no longer designated. Yes, the wave and moisture surge are still there.
Unfortunately the High Pressure system is stuck over the Center Part of Texas, any rain chances will be on the outer edges of Texas unfortunately.



Well, I'm trying Bo! Lol. Maybe, just maybe, the high will slide east enough to bring you some rain. It does happen. One recent example was how Ike was supposed to go into STX but he ended up turning north somewhat at the last minute. So it's not set in stone yet.
Out for now... TTYL...

Have a good one, now.
2017. crownwx
Quoting clwstmchasr:


He is a bit bullish. However, 90L is no longer.


When I wrote that discussion at 5-6 am this morning, 90-L hadn't been deactivated, even though track models haven't been run over the last couple of days.
ROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER CUBA AND THE
ADJACENT WATERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH AND INTERACTS
WITH LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.



YAY at last they drop it too 0%
90L is now a big RIP
Quoting Tazmanian:
ROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER CUBA AND THE
ADJACENT WATERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH AND INTERACTS
WITH LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.



YAY at last they drop it too 0%
Yes, Taz. Dropped to near 0% but not gone LOL.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Unfortunately the High Pressure system is stuck over the Center Part of Texas, any rain chances will be on the outer edges of Texas unfortunately.



Well, I'm trying Bo! Lol. Maybe, just maybe, the high will slide east enough to bring you some rain. It does happen. One recent example was how Ike was supposed to go into STX but he ended up turning north somewhat at the last minute. So it's not set in stone yet.
I hear you but the last 12 months it has been high pressure, La Nina or Center of storm system too far to North to give us rain kicking our butts. Persistence has been unbelievable since last June. Honestly last few years in Texas it has been Continued Drought with an occasional flood due to a tropical system. The only thing that has saved Texas last few years is tropical systems, they have given me majority of my rain. We may get a nice rain but then it is 3 or 4 months with nothing then another decent rain, no rainy periods the past year. So i would love to be surprised.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Yes, Taz. Dropped to near 0% but not gone LOL.
its done 90L RIP
now we wait for the next full moon on aug 13th for start of next round
lucky those islands are there 90 could of been a brute
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I hear you but the last 12 months it has been high pressure, La Nina or Center of storm system too far to North to give us rain kicking our butts. Persistence has been unbelievable since last June. Honestly last few years in Texas it has been Continued Drought with an occasional flood due to a tropical system. The only thing that has saved Texas last few years is tropical systems, they have given me majority of my rain. We may get a nice rain but then it is 3 or 4 months with nothing then another decent rain, no rainy periods the past year. So i would love to be surprised.



We were very lucky last summer. Most of the rain came from the tropical storms... Can you imagine how much worse shape Texas would have been without them? That's 2 years of terrible drought with significantly lower lake level...
2026. IKE
..NEAR 0 PERCENT..

Next.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I hear you but the last 12 months it has been high pressure, La Nina or Center of storm system too far to North to give us rain kicking our butts. Persistence has been unbelievable since last June. Honestly last few years in Texas it has been Continued Drought with an occasional flood due to a tropical system. The only thing that has saved Texas last few years is tropical systems, they have given me majority of my rain. We may get a nice rain but then it is 3 or 4 months with nothing then another decent rain, no rainy periods the past year. So i would love to be surprised.


Yeah. I know. Sigh. I hope you are surprised. Pleasantly! Kinda hard to stay positive. Does look like the x90l is firing up some new storms over the water. Maybe someone will get some beneficial rains.
Quoting IKE:
..NEAR 0 PERCENT..

Next.
back to hurry up and wait
Quoting IKE:
..NEAR 0 PERCENT..

Next.



plzs tell them IKE i been trying too say it all day sunday be no one got it lol
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Yeah. I know. Sigh. I hope you are surprised. Pleasantly! Kinda hard to stay positive. Does look like the x90l is firing up some new storms over the water. Maybe someone will get some beneficial rains.
That is all I am hoping for, It has been overcast off and on so far this morning but no rain yet. I keep hoping. What we have had so far this year is nowhere near what we should have had.
Could always start looking at the barley there, real faint indication of a low shown on OSCAT from last night at about 11N 39W.









Link
Good morning, everyone. We are at our usual 30% chance of rain, but also, like most every other day, nothing close on radar to us.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
That is all I am hoping for, It has been overcast off and on so far this morning but no rain yet. I keep hoping. What we have had so far this year is nowhere near what we should have had.


Looks like it's getting very close to you on satellite. Hope it gives you a good soaking. :)
90L was 10% yesterday due to interaction with land. Today it's 0% due to interaction with land.
new tropical wave to watch
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
90L was 10% yesterday due to interaction with land. Today it's 0% due to interaction with land.



and 90L is done
90L RIP


Next
Quoting Skeptic33:



We were very lucky last summer. Most of the rain came from the tropical storms... Can you imagine how much worse shape Texas would have been without them? That's 2 years of terrible drought with significantly lower lake level...
Without the tropical rains the last few years majority of Texas Lakes would be bone dry
You can see where Typhoon Ma-on cooled the sst off the coast of japan:



Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Without the tropical rains the last few years majority of Texas Lakes would be bone dry


They're very low in East Texas. Not easy to launch a boat for sure. Of course you could just walk to the fishing holes I guess. :)
the next two will say this

ABPZ20 KNHC 251139
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 25 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
2042. IKE

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
back to hurry up and wait
Yup. Fine with me.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


They're very low in East Texas. Not easy to launch a boat for sure. Of course you could just walk to the fishing holes I guess. :)


Or Drive.
3 hrs. ago



Now. Vorticity moving back over water.

Quoting IKE:

Yup. Fine with me.


Thought about you last week when I passed your hometown on the I-10. Went to Pensacola and Palm Bay for vacation, but missed the dang shuttle launch.
Hope all is well.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Without the tropical rains the last few years majority of Texas Lakes would be bone dry


Just have to hope that La Nina doesn't come back this fall. If we don't get anything from tropical systems, we'd need El Nino to bring us above average rainfall to help break drought during fall, winter and spring, much like 2007 which was very nice till La nina came back in the fall that year. :(
Quoting bluheelrtx:


Or Drive.


Lol. Sad but true. We need rain BAD! :)
Quoting Tazmanian:
90L RIP


Next


How many times now Taz, for goodness sake stop beating a so called dead horse!
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
3 hrs. ago



Now. Vorticity moving back over water.



That's exactly where the it looks to be building new storms. Hmmmm...maybe he's not done yet? Lol. I know I'll catch it for that comment. :)
2051. FLdewey
Quoting DestinJeff:
Vorticity looks like it may be working down a bit, and if the vort tracks westward, land interaction not such a player.

We've seen Near 0% make hay before, so I wouldn't write off 90L just yet.


Poor kitteh! RIP.

Well stacked or not at least it'll bring some rain to Central and South Florida.

Quoting DestinJeff:
Vorticity looks like it may be working down a bit, and if the vort tracks westward, land interaction not such a player.

We've seen Near 0% make hay before, so I wouldn't write off 90L just yet.


What he just said. :)
Quoting DestinJeff:
Vorticity looks like it may be working down a bit, and if the vort tracks westward, land interaction not such a player.

We've seen Near 0% make hay before, so I wouldn't write off 90L just yet.
Agreed.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


That's exactly where the it looks to be building new storms. Hmmmm...maybe he's not done yet? Lol. I know I'll catch it for that comment. :)
Rob@ Crown Weather did say he is not expecting any development before tomorrow.
2055. Stats56
Quoting DestinJeff:
Vorticity looks like it may be working down a bit, and if the vort tracks westward, land interaction not such a player.

We've seen Near 0% make hay before, so I wouldn't write off 90L just yet.


Agreed, maybe no longer an invest, but still an area of interest for those of us on the Gulf Coast.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Rob@ Crown Weather did say he is not expecting any development before tomorrow.


He could be right. I've seen dome unexpected things in the tropics before. Wouldn't give up on it yet.
Good Morning. As I mentioned earlier this am (insomnia issue around 2:00 am) best result for 90L would be for it to hold together and bring some rain to Texas down the road per the current ridging pattern in the Gulf (see link). Let's see what happens and maybe Texas will get lucky.

Link



The NAM certainly likes to show some Thunderstorm activity with old 90L..........don't jump my case.......i know the NAM is not a Tropical Model but it is a good indicator and a good model to show out to 48hrs of Thunderstorms!
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. As I mentioned earlier this am (insomnia issue around 2:00 am) best result for 90L would be for it to hold together and bring some rain to Texas down the road per the current ridging pattern in the Gulf (see link). Let's see what happens and maybe Texas will get lucky.

Link



Would you stop Wishcasting for rain PLease...........LOL........hey Brother. Ya i sure hope you all get the needed rain!
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. As I mentioned earlier this am (insomnia issue around 2:00 am) best result for 90L would be for it to hold together and bring some rain to Texas down the road per the current ridging pattern in the Gulf (see link). Let's see what happens and maybe Texas will get lucky.

Link


That would be a best case indeed. :) Fingers crossed.
Quoting TampaSpin:



Would you stop Wishcasting for rain PLease...........LOL........hey Brother. Ya i sure hope you all get the needed rain!


No let him wish! Lol.
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
new tropical wave to watch



Another big one as well. This T-wave is twisting up a lot of atmosphere. NoGaps tries to develop it, if I am not mistaken? However, it may be just a little early yet IMO.
Quoting TampaSpin:



Would you stop Wishcasting for rain PLease...........LOL........hey Brother. Ya i sure hope you all get the needed rain!


Hey TS. 90L is presently the only game in town so I am going to try to hype it as much as I can within reason.......... :)
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Another big one as well. This T-wave is twisting up a lot of atmosphere. NoGaps tries to develop it, if I am not mistaken? However, it may be just a little early yet IMO.



Yep the one that is about to roll off Africa might start getting talked about before ever rolling off. Its a biggie. And the one in the Central Atlantic certainly has a small chance!






Wow, plenty of mositure in the Caribbean and GOM for some brewing to occur. Not seen it like that for a while.
2067. P451
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I disagree. Vorticity has increased somewhat which leads me to believe SOMETHING is still there.


It still is a tropical wave but it's present chances of further development are quite low. As with anything when it hits open water things can change. It's history hasn't shown an ability to develop beyond an occasional surge in convection at times. Never was organized and never had a good surface reflection.

So we're not talking about something that almost developed, got hindered, and could develop again. We're talking about a wave that never got going throughout it's history. It will need a little more than just hitting open water. It's lacking the environment needed to spin up. It's problems appear to extend beyond land interaction.







Quoting P451:


It still is a tropical wave but it's present chances of further development are quite low. As with anything when it hits open water things can change. It's history hasn't shown an ability to develop beyond an occasional surge in convection at times. Never was organized and never had a good surface reflection.

So we're not talking about something that almost developed, got hindered, and could develop again. We're talking about a wave that never got going throughout it's history. It will need a little more than just hitting open water. It's lacking the environment needed to spin up. It's problems appear to extend beyond land interaction.










I don't think its lacking environment, cause conditons with moisture and Shear is not bad.


Old 90L has little vorticity. Just not much spin ocurring.
2071. P451
Quoting Chicklit:


Yes, Baha. It is still pretty close to the equator.



Levi cited a model yesterday that develops it but still a ways out fo sho.


NOGAPS develops it bringing it to the islands as a well developed storm around 180hr. NOGAPS has formed a lot of phantom storms this season so it's success rate is low. Have to see if other models catch on or not.



Sometimes I think these waves have minds of their own. Some just can't develop no matter how pristine the conditions are and a single adversity is exaggerated. Others, on the other hand, want to develop and will do so in the face of much adversity. Those are the ones you fear, the Wilma's and Katrina's of the world.



WOW, look at the Convergence in the Central Atlantic ..........that has a chance.
Quoting P451:


NOGAPS develops it bringing it to the islands as a well developed storm around 180hr. NOGAPS has formed a lot of phantom storms this season so it's success rate is low. Have to see if other models catch on or not.






Ya that is strange too with the NOGAPS.........that use to be one of the slower more conservative models to show anything. Heck over the past few years when it showed something you could almost bet on it coming.
2076. ncstorm
I usually dont post anything coming off of Africa but I have to say that is an impressive wave entering the water..

Just looking at Vorticity.........90L does not have much at 850MB......but look at 700MB! Gotta think 90L might not be done yet.



WOW!! LOOK AT THIS MAP!!
2079. P451
Quoting TampaSpin:



I don't think its lacking environment, cause conditons with moisture and Shear is not bad.


It's lacking something. As with many systems in what was it.. 08 or 09 - we saw low shear, no sal, no dry air, open hot water, and invests didn't develop.

Clearly there are other important factors we don't understand - and my guess is this wave is demonstrating that.

What we can see and do understand is...
It has had some modest mid-shear of 10-15kts to deal with. It never had high convergence or divergence. It never took advantage of diurnal cycles instead feeding off of daytime heating. It only occasionally had some vorticity with it but nothing impressive or prolonged.

Just lacking all around. If not for that initial large convective bursting as it was looking to pass through the islands it would have never been upgraded to an invest. After that first widespread burst went away it could have been deactivated.

So far it's been like an F student that occasionally got himself a D- and got attention for it. :)

2080. P451
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
WOW!! LOOK AT THIS MAP!!


Some nice waves with some nice divergence with them all.

Down the road we may see one or more of them develop.
Their is some searing taking place right now as per this latest image



20 to 30 kts currently



But looks like 90l will be moving into lower shear area in the next 24 hrs or so.



Looking at water vapor loops still has some spin with it right now though its seems to be at the higher levels at present.

2082. P451
Quoting TampaSpin:



Ya that is strange too with the NOGAPS.........that use to be one of the slower more conservative models to show anything. Heck over the past few years when it showed something you could almost bet on it coming.


It's as if it swapped places with the CMC over the winter.

Remember the GFS last June? Developed everything on Africa into a hurricane it seemed. EMCWF? Developed everything in the Caribbean plowing northward into Florida.

This year? Crickets....(except for that random May cat2 both models insisted would be off of Tampa lol) it's the NOGAPS making all the noise. I think 2 days ago Levi posted a run of the NOGAPS and it showed SEVEN tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin in the 180hr time frame. LOL.

Clearly the model was tweaked in some way.
Quoting P451:


It's lacking something. As with many systems in what was it.. 08 or 09 - we saw low shear, no sal, no dry air, open hot water, and invests didn't develop.

Clearly there are other important factors we don't understand - and my guess is this wave is demonstrating that.

What we can see and do understand is...
It has had some modest mid-shear of 10-15kts to deal with. It never had high convergence or divergence. It never took advantage of diurnal cycles instead feeding off of daytime heating. It only occasionally had some vorticity with it but nothing impressive or prolonged.

Just lacking all around. If not for that initial large convective bursting as it was looking to pass through the islands it would have never been upgraded to an invest. After that first widespread burst went away it could have been deactivated.

So far it's been like an F student that occasionally got himself a D- and got attention for it. :)




Good Post......One thing i always look at is Convergence! If a system has no Convergence it just not spinning. I got into an argument the other nite when on poster was saying a system does not need Convergence..........I DON"T AGREE WITH THAT AT ALL! If you don't have a good Convergence return.......good chance the 850MB Vorticity won't be there either.
90L is refusing to die. Gotta agree with Tampa on here. Think this will get a bump back to 10 maybe 20% later on today. Vorticity and thunderstorms increasing and its about to cross the hot zone of the Carribean. It's got obvious issues to overcome, but agian its far from dead.



Quoting ncstorm:
I usually dont post anything coming off of Africa but I have to say that is an impressive wave entering the water..



July climatology is still a little hard to beat. We had an incredible looking one come off the coast about 3 weeks ago (almost looked fully developed shortly after hitting the water) and it fell apart and dissipated after passing west of the Cape Verde Islands. However, we are now getting closer to Aug-Sept period so chances are (and we will know it when we see it) that once that "first" long track wave develops into a storm before hitting the Antilles, the Cape Verde switch will be on and the models will start to develop the ones that follow going into the peak of the season.
Quoting TampaSpin:



Good Post......One thing i always look at is Convergence! If a system has no Convergence it just not spinning. I got into an argument the other nite when on poster was saying a system does not need Convergence..........I DON"T AGREE WITH THAT AT ALL! If you don't have a good Convergence return.......good chance the 850MB Vorticity won't be there either.




Just like cutting the gas line on a car. Sure it will run for a little bit but, not for long. Convergence is the life blood of storms.
2090. P451
VORT Loop (200/500/700/850)





Also keep in mind with this wave that it wasn't really expected to develop (sans the NAM/NOGAPS which had it well developed north of E-Cuba by today) until...starting today.

Right around today was when it was modeled to get going.

So let's see if vort, convergence, and divergence increase during the day. If so it will be very slow to occur.



2091. Levi32
Quoting TampaSpin:



Good Post......One thing i always look at is Convergence! If a system has no Convergence it just not spinning. I got into an argument the other nite when on poster was saying a system does not need Convergence..........I DON"T AGREE WITH THAT AT ALL! If you don't have a good Convergence return.......good chance the 850MB Vorticity won't be there either.


Um yes a system can spin without surface convergence. The angular momentum of a low pressure area doesn't just magically disappear as soon as there is no net piling up of air at the center of low pressure. It takes time to spin down - a lot of time.
2092. bwi
From one of the maps posted down below, looks like some north winds in Jamaica. I'm not done following 90l yet -- will be watching surface winds and pressures in Cayman Island today to see if anything stirs back up as the disturbance passes to the north.
I always like to post this stat from the NOAA Mariner's Guide to Tropical Storms (circa 2000) once the wave train starts to emerge from Africa:

Each hurricane season approximately 60 of these waves cross the tropical North Atlantic. Although the majority of these waves pass through the basin without any significant tropical cyclone development, passage of these waves is often accompanied by squally weather with brief periods of higher sustained winds.
Quoting P451:
VORT Loop (200/500/700/850)





Also keep in mind with this wave that it wasn't really expected to develop (sans the NAM/NOGAPS which had it well developed north of E-Cuba by today) until...starting today.

Right around today was when it was modeled to get going.

So let's see if vort, convergence, and divergence increase during the day. If so it will be very slow to occur.






You must have looped that, NICE JOB!
2096. P451
Quoting TampaSpin:



Good Post......One thing i always look at is Convergence! If a system has no Convergence it just not spinning. I got into an argument the other nite when on poster was saying a system does not need Convergence..........I DON"T AGREE WITH THAT AT ALL! If you don't have a good Convergence return.......good chance the 850MB Vorticity won't be there either.


I think it's quite important as well. Maybe not an end all but it is important. This system presently has little to no venting and little to no inflow.

Convergence/Divergence:





If air isn't moving then the system isn't spinning.
2097. Levi32
Quoting P451:
VORT Loop (200/500/700/850)





Also keep in mind with this wave that it wasn't really expected to develop (sans the NAM/NOGAPS which had it well developed north of E-Cuba by today) until...starting today.

Right around today was when it was modeled to get going.

So let's see if vort, convergence, and divergence increase during the day. If so it will be very slow to occur.





Your loop comparison indicates that the wave axis may be tilted a bit with height.
I agree Levi, the tilting is very telling.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:




Just like cutting the gas line on a car. Sure it will run for a little bit but, not for long. Convergence is the life blood of storms.
Quoting P451:


I think it's quite important as well. Maybe not an end all but it is important. This system presently has little to no venting and little to no inflow.

Convergence/Divergence:





If air isn't moving then the system isn't spinning.



Exactly.....if its not there.....we won't see nothing. But, 24hrs can make a big difference in both as we know. Guess Levi missed the point we was making.........you gotta have these in place for development........but, once a system is in place and those features regrece then it can spin itself out like a top.
2100. Levi32
The NOGAPS still tries to cook something up out of this monsoon trough eventually.

Quoting DestinJeff:
look at the precipatable water with 90L (yes, I'm still calling it that for ease ... has it been deactivated anyway?)



not officially on the FTP site however, this was the last entry.

AL, 90, 2011072412, , BEST,
it aint dead yet
2103. P451
Quoting TampaSpin:



You must have looped that, NICE JOB!


Not sure why after all this time I finally thought to do that. Overlaying makes analysis easier. lol.


Mid Shear/Upper Shear(tendency)



It's in a narrow little pocket there. I think it needs more room.


2104. Levi32
Quoting P451:


I think it's quite important as well. Maybe not an end all but it is important. This system presently has little to no venting and little to no inflow.

Convergence/Divergence:





If air isn't moving then the system isn't spinning.


No not quite. The air can move in a circular path without its vector field having any significant net radial inward flux towards the low center. Decaying lows exhibit this all the time, and can take days to stop spinning, the whole time without any significant convergence of the surface winds.
Also note ... those convergence/divergence plots aren't always correct ... Divergence is easier to pick out, but the convergent regions can be small and obscured by cloud cover. However, if there is consistently nil divergence aloft, you can imply that there is nil convergence in the boundary layer.
No surprise...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0935 AM EDT MON 25 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z JULY 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-055

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARK: MISSION ON TROPICAL STORM DORA FOR
25/2000Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 24/2300Z.


Wind directions imply modest convergence earlier.



Directions now:



Seem lacking as of late.
Quoting Levi32:


No not quite. The air can move in a circle without its vector field having any significant net radial inward flux towards the low center. Decaying lows exhibit this all the time, and can take days to stop spinning, the whole time without any significant convergence of the surface winds.


I like your tropical tidbits much better than many of your posts in that you simplify the issues (for the common man) on the tidbits; on your posts, I think you lose lots of regular folks on here with the The air can move in a circle without its vector field having any significant net radial inward flux towards the low center. type of stuff.......No a criticism but just an observation; you are very good at what you do nonetheless...................... :)
Quoting Levi32:


No not quite. The air can move in a circular path without its vector field having any significant net radial inward flux towards the low center. Decaying lows exhibit this all the time, and can take days to stop spinning, the whole time without any significant convergence of the surface winds.


SELDOM,,,,,,,SELDOM do you ever see that Levi am i wrong!

I look at Convergence and Divergence graphics along with Vorticity graphics every day. I can remember anytime that i have seen as you are describing a system when trying to develop. Not sure i have seen one before.
the sal is slacking up along the coast of africa...quite a few distubances set to come off the coast...this could be the african train starting to get going...if the sal stays away we could have 3 storms by early august...the people thats been saying this is a busted season you have no idea what you are talking about...this will be a very active and dangerous system the way conditions are setting up..so everyone the show is just about to get started...
2111. SLU
Cyclonic turning at 8n 33w right where the convection is.

One thing I do note. The plot in southern cuba has been changing direction reasonably in a way that suggests some stronger low level turning. Perhaps someone can animate a GIF of those?

Link
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/archive/tropics /caribbean/


edit: haha, beat to the punch by a scatterometer pass.
2113. Levi32
Quoting TampaSpin:


SELDOM,,,,,,,SELDOM do you ever see that Levi am i wrong!

I look at Convergence and Divergence graphics along with Vorticity graphics every day. I can remember anytime that i have seen as you are describing a system when trying to develop. Not sure i have seen one before.


Quite often the "naked swirls" that we track have no significant surface convergence, though they must always have some small amount if there is a pressure gradient between the low center and the outside environment. However, even if the pressure is nearly equalized, you can have a left-over vorticity that takes a little while to go away before the momentum is dissipated. It's not that uncommon. Left-over vortices from MCCs are another example of such features.
90L is developing nice thunderstorms where the vorticity product indicates spinning. Low cloud movement is hard to make out on satellite, definately no closed low yet though. With waters being as warm as they are, thunderstorms are likely to persist, which will gradually lower pressures in the area SW of cuba. It's definately possible to see a spin start up around the caymans in the next 48hours, but we are more than 2 days away from a TS.
2115. 7544
Quoting SLU:
Cyclonic turning at 8n 33w right where the convection is.



91L soon ?
Quoting Levi32:


Quite often the "naked swirls" that we track have no significant surface convergence, though they must always have some small amount if there is a pressure gradient between the low center and the outside environment. However, even if the pressure is nearly equalized, you can have a left-over vorticity that takes a little while to go away before the momentum is dissipated. It's not that uncommon. Left-over vortices from MCCs are another example of such features.



LEVI, we are talking about DEVELOPING SYSTEMS that are trying to develop. If those items as described are not present ........you will get no development. Is that not correct? NOT SOMETHING THAT IS ALREADY DEVELOPED!
Quoting Levi32:


Quite often the "naked swirls" that we track have no significant surface convergence, though they must always have some small amount if there is a pressure gradient between the low center and the outside environment. However, even if the pressure is nearly equalized, you can have a left-over vorticity that takes a little while to go away before the momentum is dissipated. It's not that uncommon. Left-over vortices from MCCs are another example of such features.


I agree, if the vector of movement is tangential to the circle, there is no convergence or divergence.
2118. Levi32
Quoting TampaSpin:



LEVI, we are talking about DEVELOPING SYSTEMS that are trying to develop. If those items as described are not present ........you will get no development. Is that not correct? NOT SOMETHING THAT IS ALREADY DEVELOPED!


No development and no spin are very different things. The latter is what you mentioned, as you said no convergence equates to no spin.
This low is holding and getting together and looks like it's got no so many inhibiting variables... Still not taken in consideration by Weather Outlook link...





2120. Levi32
Quoting SouthALWX:
One thing I do note. The plot in southern cuba has been changing direction reasonably in a way that suggests some stronger low level turning. Perhaps someone can animate a GIF of those?

Link
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/archive/tropics /caribbean/


edit: haha, beat to the punch by a scatterometer pass.


2121. Levi32
ASCAT missed the tropical waves on both sides in the current pass.
Quoting Levi32:


No development and no spin are very different things. The latter is what you mentioned, as you said no convergence equates to no spin.



We was talking about developing systems and only developing systems. Not things that was already developed.
Quoting Levi32:


No development and no spin are very different things. The latter is what you mentioned, as you said no convergence equates to no spin.

Any thoughts on the system at 8N and 33W it has a decent spin and some good convection but is pretty far south. you see this trying to develop down the road?
Seeing as how you dont get geostrophic flow typically in the boundary layer ... I have to concede that you are both right. Sort of. If there is cyclonic spin in the boundary layer, you have atleast some tiny amount of convergence. Friction ensures this.

edit: thanks levi. Not as conclusive as I'd hoped sadly.
2127. Patrap
Pop Tart or Cheerios?

You decide.
Quoting Patrap:
GOES-13 Carribean Low Cloud Product Loop


Pretty good spin it appears just north of Jamacia......that is also where the 850mb vorticity is also located.
2129. Levi32
Quoting SouthALWX:
Seeing as how you dont get geostrophic flow typically in the boundary layer ... I have to concede that you are both right. Sort of. If there is cyclonic spin in the boundary layer, you have atleast some tiny amount of convergence. Friction ensures this.

edit: thanks levi. Not as conclusive as I'd hoped sadly.


Yes, correct in the boundary layer, I will concede. Above that, geostrophic flow is more easily (nearly) obtained, especially in the absence of a significant pressure gradient force.


Rut roh!
2131. Patrap
90L has a opportunity today and downstream as well.

Dont write it off,, esp in the improving environment developing along with it.

Sup, TS
Yesterday afternoon I had a pop up shower come over my house. It was very small and lasted about 30 minutes at most. Of course that was the 30 minutes I had been allotted to water my lawn, so I was watering in the rain. The rain did not do much, just raised the humidity to oppressive levels and did not cool us off at all. Temp at my house stayed in the upper 90's all day and probably peaked over 100 for a short time.

I will be watching ex-90L just for the moisture and rain potential. (But living on the gulf coast I am also keeping a wary eye on it as well, I have seen to many systems with 0% chance of development fool everyone.)

We have a 30% chance of rain being on the southern border of the ridge in North Central Texas and hopefully some of the moisture in LA will make it this way.

Does anyone have any thoughts on the system at 8N and 33W? looks pretty decent
Quoting Levi32:


Yes, correct in the boundary layer, I will concede. Above that, geostrophic flow is more easily (nearly) obtained, especially in the absence of a significant pressure gradient force.


Im pretty sure the low level swirls most are talking about are atleast partially well within the frictional layer. Regardless, decaying cyclones even in the boundary layer can have great spindown times with little convergence, especially over water.
Quoting Patrap:
Pop Tart or Cheerios?

You decide.


I'll take the Toaster Strudel coming off of Africa instead.

Pop Tarts and Cheerios off of Cuba just don't excite me like they used to.
TD 11W

GFS:



CMC:

I've been watching for a week or so, and I've finally moved into the camp of those who see something that might start to spin. Early visible looks promising to me this morning. I'm watching this closely for the next 24 hrs to see if anything happens. Definitely hoping it turns into a rain maker for upper Texas coast!
2138. Patrap
Im going wit da Cheerio's and skim Milk,,

Dats a Heart Healthy choice the Box say's.
Quoting Patrap:
90L has a opportunity today and downstream as well.

Dont write it off,, esp in the improving environment developing along with it.

Sup, TS


Yep, gonna have to agree. Just last night I wrote it off, but starting to maybe see things change. Looks different this morning than previous days
2140. P451
Quoting Levi32:
ASCAT missed the tropical waves on both sides in the current pass.


:(

Would have been nice to see it. This wave has always produced what appears to be cyclonic surface flow in it's "north-west quadrant" throughout it's trek (and then nothing but easterly winds in the other three). Curious to see a detailed look at what is going on with that NW side.
2141. bwi
Cayman Brac observations.
2142. Patrap
Remember to "factor in" the fact that Dr. M is on "Vacation".


Development is usually a given in that respect.
any areas get any decent amount of rain from ex-90 does not seem too wet
Ladies and Gentlemen, we are gathered here today...

invest_DEACTIVATE_al902011.ren
Quoting Patrap:
Pop Tart or Cheerios?

You decide.
Quoting Patrap:
90L has a opportunity today and downstream as well.

Dont write it off,, esp in the improving environment developing along with it.

Sup, TS


Hey Pat.........do the box thingy with those little round things with them there holes in em..........LOL! Those Honey nut one's are my favorites.
2146. P451
Quoting Levi32:


No not quite. The air can move in a circular path without its vector field having any significant net radial inward flux towards the low center. Decaying lows exhibit this all the time, and can take days to stop spinning, the whole time without any significant convergence of the surface winds.


True, but when you're looking to initiate a spin it would certainly help to have surface convergence and divergence aloft. This system has constantly lacked convergence and never had impressive divergence aloft - briefly looking good during an early flare up as it entered the NE Caribbean.

Again though most models showed nothing was to come together until about today. It's still a tropical wave that had been modeled to develop at some time.

area of disturbed weather 8N 33W moving WNW at 15-20 mph. very little covection so far, but good 850mb vort and convergence and divergence as well. some dry air to the north will cause cslow development. a little migration further north would be quite interesting. position of IVAN 2004 and ABBY OF 1980
Currently, ex-90L reminds me of TS Gaston from last year...yet that could very quickly change.

Floods in Chicago

Meanwhile, much of Southern Ontario has seen less than 20% of our typical July precipitation, in what can be described as near-drought conditions. Link
2149. Levi32
Quoting Neapolitan:
Ladies and Gentlemen, we are gathered here today...

invest_DEACTIVATE_al902011.ren


I'm not ready to say R.I.P. just yet. The coffin can wait a couple more days just in case we have a Lazarus to deal with.
Been getting some rain the past few days where I'm at. For the month I have now 2.74" grass is green, but really need a lot more rain, talking inches and inches of rain to get down deep for trees and as the water levels on lakes, ponds, detention ponds are down.

FYI, for some reason with the .25" or .75" of rain we get on a day the frogs at night are croaking loud over in the detention ponds in the subdivision. Usually you wont hear them do that unless we got lots and lots of rainwater...maybe a storm with lots of rain is on the way...
90L is still hanging in there and shows signs of getting its act together...its currently being influenced by land area but as soon as it gets south of western cuba all hell could break loose with this system...the ssts are approaching 90 degrees and very little shear to talk about...this will have to be watched carefully and for anyone to ignore this thing is just crazy..im giving it with the heavy convection and it does already have a weak suface circulation a 50% chance of developing into a depression in 24-36 hours...
I find it strange that 90L has been deactivated at the most promising time of its life....
Quoting cloudburst2011:
90L is still hanging in there and shows signs of getting its act together...its currently being influenced by land area but as soon as it gets south of western cuba all hell could break loose with this system...the ssts are approaching 90 degrees and very little shear to talk about...this will have to be watched carefully and for anyone to ignore this thing is just crazy..im giving it with the heavy convection and it does already have a weak suface circulation a 50% chance of developing into a depression in 24-36 hours...


lol, starting to think now this thing is gonna finally ramp itself up just as the NHC deactivates it, it ends up coming alive
2155. Levi32
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I find it strange that 90L has been deactivated at the most promising time of its life....


Well in reality they have considered it dead for 48 hours already, since the last model cycle run on it was 12z the 23rd.
Great the tropics are dead. i thought late july would be better
Quoting Levi32:


I'm not ready to say R.I.P. just yet. The coffin can wait a couple more days just in case we have a Lazarus to deal with.


Now THAT is something that I can understand...... :)
Quoting Levi32:


Well in reality they have considered it dead for 48 hours already, since the last model cycle run on it was 12z the 23rd.


It's got wide open water in front of it now, which has not been the case for days. Things might just change...
rita isnt that always the case look at powerful katrina they wanted to say that was dead also...anytime you have a system with the size of and envelope this thing had in the atlantic it has to be watched carefully...im starting to get really concerned if this attains tropical depression strength it could fire the engines rapidly...i seen this happen so many times...
Quoting Levi32:


Well in reality they have considered it dead for 48 hours already, since the last model cycle run on it was 12z the 23rd.


Although they have run no models doesn't mean the necessarily mean they had to deactivate it now does it? Or is there a restriction? Regardless, I doubt it develops, but that doesn't mean it doesn't have a chance.
NHC needs to move its 0% circle back to the East a bit.
If for some reason old 90L gets a LLC, folks should be aware that it might spin up pretty quick, don't be shocked if a 50-60mph storm ramps up in the Gulf is what I'm trying to say...

Quoting neutralenso:
Great the tropics are dead. i thought late july would be better


What would you call what we were looking at 2 days ago then? This is perfectly normal for July, be patient.
Question.........Do any of the models re-develop 90L at this time?
rita i agree 100% remember what camille did when it was south of western cuba...this is late july not liking this scenario very much...i think we may be dealing with a depession in 36 hours...
The WRF Model kinda likes old 90L chances heading toward Texas


Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Question.........Do any of the models re-develop 90L at this time?



3 days ahead..
On another note, on visible sat, notice the strong easterly flow piling into the back side of old 90L, those low level clouds are racing
2172. P451
Quoting CybrTeddy:


What would you call what we were looking at 2 days ago then? This is perfectly normal for July, be patient.


Yup...we're just about to get started.



Quoting cloudburst2011:
rita i agree 100% remember what camille did when it was south of western cuba...this is late july not liking this scenario very much...i think we may be dealing with a depession in 36 hours...


Yea, but I think time is on our side, it's moving to fast and will be coming ashore somewhere this week don't you think?
2174. Levi32
The wave is now past the central Caribbean "graveyard" of strong trade winds and is now being supported by those winds piling in from the east, as Rita said. The western Caribbean is more favorable to tropical waves for that reason.
Quoting sunlinepr:




Thanks........As I mentioned this morning, Texas could certainly use it so it would be nice to see a low end tropical system bring them some rain (nothing above TS strength).
yes rita i agree it will coming ashore somewhere on the gulf coast this week but it certainly has the time to strengthen significantly as it trecks through the gom...ssts are crazy 90-92 degrees...this is a boiling pot.. so i dont think time is on our side ...
Quoting cloudburst2011:
rita isnt that always the case look at powerful katrina they wanted to say that was dead also...anytime you have a system with the size of and envelope this thing had in the atlantic it has to be watched carefully...im starting to get really concerned if this attains tropical depression strength it could fire the engines rapidly...i seen this happen so many times...


Things do change unexpectedly in the tropics for sure. I don't remember exactly what it was about Rita's development. Something about the tropical wave that was to become Rita and a stalled front? I think? Anyway, no one expected her to develop how she did. There's a video on Youtube of the HH flight into her and I swear they said, "And we were calling this tropical trash two days ago." Lol. Ya just never know. :)
2178. Patrap
If and once a LLC forms, that'll be the spark needed for this thing, it's free to do what it wants once that missing link is established
@typhoonfury
James Reynolds
Parts of Philippines being deluged by TD 10W right now, flooding could well be a big concern by morning!!
TD Ten in the West Pacific will have to be watched. JTWC is pretty conservative on intensity, while the ECMWF and GFS show a decent system.






2182. beell
Some shear on the west side of the wave. Mainly due to the NE winds in the low levels opposing the upper level SW winds. A hindrance.

Still a viable wave. Count me in on the "still watching" group.
2183. Levi32
Off to work. Back later.
so a few models are calling for redevelopment of old 90l. if this does redevelop where might it go? louisiana, texas, ms.? what is in place to steer ex-90l? i see dr. masters says that wind sheer is low in the gulf. can anyone tell me how fast an invest can turn into a major, and maybe give examples? tia!
2185. P451
Quoting SouthDadeFish:


Although they have run no models doesn't mean the necessarily mean they had to deactivate it now does it? Or is there a restriction? Regardless, I doubt it develops, but that doesn't mean it doesn't have a chance.


Most models didn't predict significant organization until today (going back 60-72 hours ago, we're now at that threshold).

As to the invest declaration itself in my opinion the surge in convection as it passed through the islands into the NE Caribbean warranted the upgrade. Once that initial period of development waned 90L was barely alive and could have easily been de-activated as quickly as it was activated.

I would not doubt if those who decided to upgrade it felt just 12 hours later it no longer warranted it.

This system could have simply remained an AOI that bore watching as an active tropical wave. That's all it's been except for approximately a six hour window early on.


Now we're entering the point in time where models (outside of the nogaps and nam which developed it rather quickly from the start and had it as a decent TS north of Cuba today) began to organize/develop the system.

I wouldn't be surprised if it's upgraded to an invest once again in the 24-48 hour time frame. IF it begins to organize of course.

Watch the convergence, divergence, and vorticity maps for improvement today - as 90L was lacking in all three categories throughout it's life.

If they begin to improve then you got something. If they remain weak, well, same old open wave not looking to develop.

Quoting TampaSpin:
NHC needs to move its 0% circle back to the East a bit.


That's how I see it too. It seems to have shed the widespread convection and concentrated down into something with potential, just past Jamaica. That's how it looks to me now, so we'll see won't we...
This is a test of the Emergency Alert System. Or a test of the 90L Alert System.
Quoting sarahjola:
so a few models are calling for redevelopment of old 90l. if this does redevelop where might it go? louisiana, texas, ms.? what is in place to steer ex-90l? i see dr. masters says that wind sheer is low in the gulf. can anyone tell me how fast an invest can turn into a major, and maybe give examples? tia!


Here is the current WU pressure chart showing the ridging in the Northern Gulf (Yall in the Northern Gulf have a protective bubble at the moment) so I am thinking Mexico or Texas but not etched in stone depending on what happens with the ridging over the week..........Several examples of relatively fast spin ups but really too many too mention. Given the possible Texas heading on this one, I would use Humberto from a few years as a good example of a rapid spin-up right against the coastline of Texas.

Link
Quoting DestinJeff:
This is all gettimg too "Nick Burns, Your Company Computer Guy" for me to keep up with.

No matter .. 90L, or whatever, is emerging into that area of the Caribbean where waters are very warm and land interaction may not be quite as much of an issue.
Hey, I resemble that remark...
The crow will flow if 90L spins up.
2194. FLdewey
Ahhh... the wishing is strong with this one.

Where is my remote... someone hit the FF button.

Ship it!
90L is nearing a location that is known for RI, take a deep breath, got a feeling 90L will give us a bit of a surprise!
Land interaction is the only problem 90L is facing at the moment. Once it reaches the abnormally warm Gulf Of Mexico waters, it might really try to pull a Humberto before coming ashore somewhere between Corpus Christi and Tampalico, probably just north of Brownsville is the prime target.
Does anyone else think the NHC is being quite too conservative?
Quoting TampaSpin:


Yep! That's the one. :) Am grateful for all the guys and gals that fly into these things. And I'd love to go with them one day. Sigh. I guess this is a day for dreaming. :)
sst where ex-90l is are at 30 and the gulf of mexico is at 31, so its very warm out there. low sheer in the gulf and it seems to the naked eye that ex-90l has a general spin to it. once land gets out the way how long might it be before we know if ex-90l has a chance to become more than an ex? tia!
oh, and thanks weathermanwannabe
I believe the cashews are about to hit the fan...

i posted this earlier.......this is the NAM........no its not a Tropical Model but a good model to 24-48hrs out to show Thunderstorm activitiy........LOOKS DANG GOOD HERE!


Quoting PcolaDan:


Only 9km depth. That's pretty shallow isn't it? I imagine that must of been a good shake. A lot of quake activity past few days.
2205. SLU
The 30w blob now recognised as a wave

I'm strongly compelled to wishcast rain into my parched yard! Come to daddy...
Quoting hurricaneben:
Does anyone else think the NHC is being quite too conservative?



They always are in the development stage. This is really no surprise as we have seen this often. Hey nothing is there as they are currently saying CORRECT! At least not yet!
2184. sarahjola 10:46 AM EDT on July 25, 2011

BTW, I miss-spoke when I used Humberto as an answer to your question; Humberto remained as a Cat 1 when it came ashore I believe and certainly not a major when it spun up quickly.
2211. FLdewey
AGUA!

Quoting stormpetrol:
90L is nearing a location that is known for RI, take a deep breath, got a feeling 90L will give us a bit of a surprise!


I agree with ya...storms do tend to get their act together in this area...I wonder why?
2213. FLdewey
Quoting KeysieLife:
I believe the cashews are about to hit the fan...



LMAO... skeerd.
Quoting DestinJeff:


That satellite is so vain.

It probably thinks this site is about him...
2215. P451
Quoting NOLALawyer:
The crow will flow if 90L spins up.

Not sure if I recall a post warranting crow to be served one way or another in regards to 90L.







Quoting FLdewey:
Ahhh... the wishing is strong with this one.

Where is my remote... someone hit the FF button.

Ship it!


Very. Not sure why as it only looked decent once early on and since then has been the same....lacking in many areas needed for development. Starting today it's entering the area where it was expected to organize. So let's see how it fairs.
2216. FLdewey
Quoting muddertracker:


I agree with ya...storms do tend to get their act together in this area...I wonder why?


Communism
2217. P451
Quoting KeysieLife:
I believe the cashews are about to hit the fan...



Check out Africa...

Quoting FLdewey:


Communism

bahahahha...yeah...that explains everything...but seriously, though...is it heat content or b/c westerlies die down in this area? Pressures tend to lower in this area? Why?
Suface Low might be trying to develop in the Western side of the Blob!


From Wiki; Andrew in 1992 might be a better example of RI:

Andrew attained hurricane status early on August 22 about 650 miles (1,050 km) east-southeast of Nassau, Bahamas.[1] The hurricane accelerated as it tracked due westward into an area of very favorable conditions, and late on August 22 began rapidly intensifying; in a 24 hour period the pressure dropped 47 millibars (1.4 inHg) to a minimum pressure of 922 millibars (27.2 inHg).[1] On August 23 Andrew attained Category 5 status on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, and at 1800 UTC that day it reached peak winds of 175 miles per hour (282 km/h) while located a short distance off Eleuthera island.[5]

2222. P451
Quoting muddertracker:


I agree with ya...storms do tend to get their act together in this area...I wonder why?


Higher and deeper ocean heat content.
More room - less land interaction by far.
More moisture/lower shear - as SA is left behind.
Topography of CA aiding in the spinning up/tightening of cores.

It's just a real comfortable zone for tropical development.
Quoting muddertracker:


I agree with ya...storms do tend to get their act together in this area...I wonder why?
This is the area of the Cayman Trench. Waters are extrememly deep and warm.
2224. FLdewey
Quoting muddertracker:

bahahahha...yeah...that explains everything...but seriously, though...is it heat content or b/c westerlies die down in this area? Pressures tend to lower in this area? Why?


That's a great question... I'm guessing it's an area that is favorable compared to further East. As you mentioned better heat - of course no land interaction.

We need a history map.
2225. FLdewey
The CHART!

My eyes.... ahhhhhhhh.
2226. SQUAWK
Quoting DestinJeff:
I like to do first-page Google results research, and what I found is remarkable concerning hurricane actvity over the last 100 years.

As it happens, and according to this equally as remarkable graphic, hurricanes and tropical storms are LESS LIKELY to form in June and July. This of course in direct contradiction to what many would desire, but The Chart doesn't lie.

Behold:



(used with expressed, written consent of Major League Baseball)


Ya know how to put them in their place DJ! Good job!
2227. Patrap
Wow! Lots of reasons why! Thanks everyone.
Gonna get REEEEEAAAAALLLLL interesting once this thing gets to western Cuba
Quoting DestinJeff:
I like to do first-page Google results research, and what I found is remarkable concerning hurricane actvity over the last 100 years.

As it happens, and according to this equally as remarkable graphic, hurricanes and tropical storms are LESS LIKELY to form in June and July. This of course in direct contradiction to what many would desire, but The Chart doesn't lie.

Behold:



(used with expressed, written consent of Major League Baseball)



Dam it Jeff..........Stop downcasting. Stop being so honest!......ROFLMAO
Quoting DestinJeff:
I like to do first-page Google results research, and what I found is remarkable concerning hurricane actvity over the last 100 years.

As it happens, and according to this equally as remarkable graphic, hurricanes and tropical storms are LESS LIKELY to form in June and July. This of course in direct contradiction to what many would desire, but The Chart doesn't lie.

Behold:



(used with expressed, written consent of Major League Baseball)


Ooooo; had to bust out "the CHART"
2233. Patrap
Depth of 26C isotherm

Wow just checking in and I see x-90L still hanging in there.... Looks to be coming to the Gulf sooner than we all think, thats why I have never writen off this "Wave".....


Taco :o)
Quoting RitaEvac:
Gonna get REEEEEAAAAALLLLL interesting once this thing gets to western Cuba


Techinially..........this is also an African Wave also........just sayn!
Isotherm
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

An isothermal process is a change of a system, in which the temperature remains constant: ΔT = 0. This typically occurs when a system is in contact with an outside thermal reservoir (heat bath), and the change occurs slowly enough to allow the system to continually adjust to the temperature of the reservoir through heat exchange. In contrast, an adiabatic process is where a system exchanges no heat with its surroundings (Q = 0). In other words, in an isothermal process, the value ΔT = 0 but Q ≠ 0, while in an adiabatic process, ΔT ≠ 0 but Q = 0.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes


Speed this up if you don't believe a surface spin is not there..........WOW! READY SET GO!!!!!!
tampaspin it was the the biggest wave i have seen come off africa in a long time...if it wouldnt of been for the sal that drained it we would be looking at a major hurricane covering 600 miles which would of destroyed the caribbean...now we have something that shrunk in area size quite a bit so this is going to give someone problems down the road..i would say with the high expected to weaken anyone from texas to pensecola has to watch this...
Speed convergence racing in from the east of old 90L, low level clouds racing towards it on visible loop
2243. P451
Quoting DestinJeff:
I like to do first-page Google results research, and what I found is remarkable concerning hurricane actvity over the last 100 years.

As it happens, and according to this equally as remarkable graphic, hurricanes and tropical storms are LESS LIKELY to form in June and July. This of course in direct contradiction to what many would desire, but The Chart doesn't lie.

Behold:



(used with expressed, written consent of Major League Baseball)


LOL!



Also, behold, the history since 1851(atlantic) 1949(epac)!





Q: Is there going to be another tropical storm this season?

A: YES! Look at the map!

Quoting P451:

Not sure if I recall a post warranting crow to be served one way or another in regards to 90L.






Really? I can see several esteemed members standing at the graveside of 90L and tossing flowers on the casket.

There is no "wishing" involved here. Storms do what they do.However, the tenacity to which people cling to those little circles the NHC places on storms is often comical.
Quoting DestinJeff:
Sorry, had to go to the 'pen to bring The Heat.

I will leash that beast now, and I apologize for now warning you all before I whipped it out.
Soooo... DOOM:CON level is sustained at the moment? Phew, thought we might have got a 10mph gust and some rain spots on the car...
Quoting blsealevel:
Isotherm
From

So if a storm is whipping along very quickly, it wouldn't take advantange of the heat b/c it wouldn't be able to interact with it? How slow does a tc need to be moving in order to take full advantage of the heat source interaction? (If I am wrong...please correct me)
Surface spin is observed at 19N 78W......just off shore of Cuba off the Tip!

2248. P451
Quoting TampaSpin:
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes


Speed this up if you don't believe a surface spin is not there..........WOW! READY SET GO!!!!!!




This script should be referenced with a METHOD of POST. If you don't understand this, see this forms overview.




Are we DOOM?
No matter what happens with 90L, just remember I told ya so.

2250. scott39
90L will get to eat its can of spinach in about 24 hours!
actually, the wind shear is not so hostile for ex-90L. I think we need to keep a close eye on this system.
Quoting P451:







Are we DOOM?


OMG :o) You Guys are "Killing Me"


Taco :o)
Sorry...........try this one.........Zoom and LOOP and turn the speed up........easily seen!

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.h tml
2254. FLdewey
No take backs Jeff
2255. P451
Quoting NOLALawyer:


Really? I can see several esteemed members standing at the graveside of 90L and tossing flowers on the casket.

There is no "wishing" involved here. Storms do what they do.However, the tenacity to which people cling to those little circles the NHC places on storms is often comical.


This is a bit drastic.

I have seen not one post either hypecasting or downcasting 90L that was unreasonable in any way.

Some observed that 90L is a weak open wave they don't expect to develop.
Some observed that 90L is a weak open wave that they think has a chance of development down the road.

I have seen nothing outside of those boundaries. No 'Cat5 headed to NOLA'. No 'what are you looking at there is nothing there.' type posts.

Everything anyone has posted on 90L the past few days has been more than reasonable. I have not seen one post that would deserve to be called out whether or not 90L (a deactivated invest) develops.







The Cayman Trench. I was curious...so...
If a center were to form, would be just North or NW of the western tip of Jamaica
Good morning guys. Just because 90L has been deactivated, well, that does not mean that we need to stop monitoring it. You guys can count me in the "still watching" group. Ex-90L has really shrunk down in size to a little blob just to the south of Cuba. Vorticity is weak in the 850 mb. levels, but fairly strong farther up. As it heads west, it will enter very warm Sea Surface Temperatures and Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, along with a favorable environment. At this time, I would give Ex-90L a 10% chance for development in the next 48 hours.

Definitely not writing this one off yet. Will be interesting what the NHC doest at 2pm. Will they knock it back up to 10 or 20% ?




Quoting weathermanwannabe:
2184. sarahjola 10:46 AM EDT on July 25, 2011

BTW, I miss-spoke when I used Humberto as an answer to your question; Humberto remained as a Cat 1 when it came ashore I believe and certainly not a major when it spun up quickly.


Here's another RI story in just about the same place that Humberto came ashore. Written by DRM. Still gives me chills. Link

Overnight, Audrey intensified rapidly, and more than doubled her forward speed from the 7 mph speed observed that afternoon. When residents of Cameron awoke on June 27, the escape routes had already been flooded by the storm surge. Audrey now packed top winds of 145-150 mph--an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane, the most powerful June hurricane on record. A massive storm surge of 12 feet swept through the bayous the morning of June 27, pushing inland over 25 miles. The final death toll will never be known, but it is thought 550 people--including over 100 children--perished in Audrey. It was America's deadliest hurricane disaster between the time of the New England Hurricane of 1938 (682 killed) and Hurricane Katrina of 2005 (1833 killed).

Comparison of Audrey and Rita
Why was Audrey so much deadlier than Hurricane Rita of 2005? Rita hit the same region of coast with weaker winds (Category 3, 115 mph), but a storm surge even higher (15 feet). Rita destroyed virtually 100% of Cameron, whereas Audrey destroyed 75% of the town. Nearly two years later, Cameron is mostly just concrete slabs and trailers, thanks to Rita. However, Rita caused only one direct death in Southwest Louisiana--a drowning in Lake Charles. The answer is preparedness. Rita was a massive Category 5 hurricane several days before landfall, giving people plenty of time to receive the warnings and evacuate. Warning systems are much better now than in 1957, and Cameron was deserted when Rita hit. But Audrey did something hurricane forecasters still fear could cause a high death toll in the future, despite our better warning systems--rapid intensification with a sudden forward speed increase overnight, bringing a much stronger hurricane to the coast far earlier than expected. If this nightmare scenario happens to one of our major cities in the future, another Audrey-like death toll could easily result.
2262. P451
Quoting BobinTampa:
No matter what happens with 90L, just remember I told ya so.



YES.

This is an amendment we need to add to Jeff's guide of take back protocol.




Quoting TampaSpin:
Sorry...........try this one.........Zoom and LOOP and turn the speed up........easily seen!

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.h tml


Seems to be some rotation in there. Would be nice to get a scat pass on this system. Surface obs have always detected a rotation but it always seemed incomplete - NW quad only - with all other quads being easterly winds.

Could be interesting later today.
we mustn't get our hopes up with this one weve already had two it would rock THE CHART to get 3
2264. scott39
If the NHC thought that ex90L was not going to develope eventually....they would have killed it 24 hours ago.
Quoting P451:


YES.

This is an amendment we need to add to Jeff's guide of take back protocol.






Seems to be some rotation in there. Would be nice to get a scat pass on this system. Surface obs have always detected a rotation but it always seemed incomplete - NW quad only - with all other quads being easterly winds.

Could be interesting later today.


Wait and watch the next 24hours.........if 90L is gonna mean anything at all the next 24hrs will tell us something i would think.
2266. Matt74
Quoting RitaEvac:
Gonna get REEEEEAAAAALLLLL interesting once this thing gets to western Cuba
I agree. I'm no expert but i think we need to watch this one closely.
It appears a center might be forming around 19.5N/77W, ex 90L has a nice spin to it now imo.
2268. P451
"I'll have another blog on Monday.

Angela "


A fresh blog would be nice. Hopefully there will be one when I check back in later today.

Have a good afternoon all-
850 mb showing some good yellow, more than it had most of yesterday. Ex-90L or whatever is still on my radar. IMO it should be 10%.
I don't see the spin people are talking about
Hurricane Camille 1969

This powerful, deadly, and destructive hurricane formed just west of the Cayman Islands on August 14. It rapidly intensified and by the time it reached western Cuba the next day it was a Category 3 hurricane. Camille tracked north-northwestward across the Gulf of Mexico and became a Category 5 hurricane on August 16. The hurricane maintained this intensity until it made landfall along the Mississippi coast late on the 17th. Camille weakened to a tropical depression as it crossed Mississippi into western Tennessee and Kentucky, then it turned eastward across West Virginia and Virginia. The cyclone moved into the Atlantic on August 20 and regained tropical storm strength before becoming extratropical on the 22nd.

A minimum pressure of 26.84 inches was reported in Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, which makes Camille the second most intense hurricane of record to hit the United States. The actual maximum sustained winds will never be known, as the hurricane destroyed all the wind-recording instruments in the landfall area. The estimates at the coast are near 200 mph. Columbia, Mississippi, located 75 miles inland, reported 120 mph sustained winds. A storm tide of 24.6 ft occurred at Pass Christian, Mississippi. The heaviest rains along the Gulf Coast were about 10 inches. However, as Camille passed over the Virginias, it produced a burst of 12 to 20 inch rains with local totals of up to 31 inches. Most of this rain occurred in 3 to 5 hours and caused catastrophic flash flooding.

The combination of winds, surges, and rainfalls caused 256 deaths (143 on the Gulf Coast and 113 in the Virginia floods) and $1.421 billion in damage. Three deaths were reported in Cuba.
2273. scott39
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wheres my blood pressure meds???!!!
stormpetrol its becoming more pronounced you can see it pretty easily on wv..
Link

LSU low cloud...you can def. see some wrapping up where vorticity is the highest...sort of inbetween Jamaica and that area of Cuba that sticks out on southeast side...
Quoting RitaEvac:
I don't see the spin people are talking about


you dont necisarilly have to, u can just check the vorticity
Quoting scott39:
Wheres my blood pressure meds???!!!


I wouldn't put stock into it right now considering its over a month out (lol), but it shows what type of pattern we will be dealing with a month or less from now - Several systems active at one time, all following almost the same path.
Quoting muddertracker:
Link

LSU low cloud...you can def. see some wrapping up where vorticity is the highest...sort of inbetween Jamaica and that area of Cuba that sticks out on southeast side...


Wow, that image shows it clearly.
2280. scott39
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I wouldn't put stock into it right now considering its over a month out (lol), but it shows what type of pattern we will be dealing with a month or less from now - Several systems active at one time, all following almost the same path.
Thats my birthday too! Pattern looks to be interesting.
I've organized my thoughts on 90L in the blog I just wrote. Feel free to check it out.

Latest 850 mb vorticity suggests the greatest area of spin is just west of the strongest burst of convection.
2282. emcf30
Quoting FLdewey:
No take backs Jeff


Oh geez, I thought we agreed to take backs. Did we get over ruled.
Thy Kingdom come, Thy Don will come...
Quoting RitaEvac:
If a center were to form, would be just North or NW of the western tip of Jamaica

if a center were to form as it is doing now it current location is as 18.5N 77.5W the vort at 925,850,700,500 would just about agree with me anyway in that location a ts will develop rapidly very rapidly in time remeber I said TS not TD remeber this are waters that wilma made it record for rapid development of course condition not as favored but favered enough
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I've organized my thoughts on 90L in the blog I just wrote. Feel free to check it out.

Latest 850 mb vorticity suggests the greatest area of spin is just west of the strongest burst of convection.


Nice job! Very clear explainations and clean writing!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Interesting and dangerous setup starting to appear that cannot be ignored over the next month.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:



Good lord man...You think that model can spit out the Powerball numbers for Wednesday??


In all seriousness however, that really could happen this year.
the circulation right now looks to be forming at 19.3N and 77.0W..its easy to see on wv...its just to the west of the heavy convection starting to fire up between cuba and jamaica...
2289. FLdewey
Quoting emcf30:


Oh geez, I thought we agreed to take backs. Did we get over ruled.


Take backs for wishca... I mean forecasts are acceptable. The chart however can never be taken back.
hey stormpetrol I see it near where you has it but you have it too far N I have it at 18N
Quoting muddertracker:


I'm sure theirs a math formule to figure that one out
but I ant the right one to give you a correct answer
but i did run across this maybe it will help answer some other queastions that i saw here too

www.met.reading.ac.uk/~thermod/hurricane/pdf_pape rs/rotunno87.pdf
ex-90L has a very good spin right now !!!
Quoting muddertracker:


Nice job! Very clear explainations and clean writing!
Thank you very much!

And 2269, nice 852 hour forecast haha
2294. FLdewey
LMAO... models that far out are less than meaningless. You'd be better off giving a monkey the keys to Photoshop.

True story.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey stormpetrol I see it near where you has it but you have it too far N I have it at 18N


i think its at 19.5
Jason will be coming on saying WOW pretty soon
I guess some might call me out, but its looking more like to me that old 90L might become a player. I am playing it safe tho and not stating what kind of player..........LOL
Quoting TampaSpin:
I guess some might call me out, but its looking more like to me that old 90L might become a player. I am playing it safe tho and not stating what kind of player..........LOL


Maybe a swing up over Cuba into Tampa Bay!!
Quoting RitaEvac:


Maybe a swing up over Cuba into Tampa Bay!!



NO NO don't suck me into that one with everyone just bacause i live in Tampa.........that aint even right Rita..........LOL
I'll take it for the team, a 60mph storm right at my doorstep, need rain
Quoting cloudburst2011:
the circulation right now looks to be forming at 19.3N and 77.0W..its easy to see on wv...its just to the west of the heavy convection starting to fire up between cuba and jamaica...

cloudburst2011 you will never find the COC on WV imagery we do not use WV to find the COC of tropical system/surface lows WV imagery looks at upper levels not surface you got that get it cleared I don't want to see you make that mistake again
Quoting TampaSpin:
I guess some might call me out, but its looking more like to me that old 90L might become a player. I am playing it safe tho and not stating what kind of player..........LOL

I see it going a little more north say TX/LA are just my opinion though.
Quoting RitaEvac:
I'll take it for the team, a 60mph storm right at my doorstep, need rain


if its slow movin its mine
2305. beell
700mb vorticity centered over the wave axis.

2307. tkeith
Quoting DestinJeff:
<<<<<<< Staring Contest on 3.

1. 2. 3.
ahhhh...&*$%$#, I blinkked
2308. SQUAWK
Quoting DestinJeff:
NHC is authorized Take Backs, too, you know.

Hey they are the ones that play with crayons anyway.

Sorry was out for awhile. DOOM:CON is not elevated at the moment, but the Boys on the Board over at DOOM:CON are scheduled for a Conference Call at 1300 EST to discuss possible scenarios.


Is that 1700 ZULU?
Quoting FLdewey:
LMAO... models that far out are less than meaningless. You'd be better off giving a monkey the keys to Photoshop.

True story.

"Caution should be employed when using the forecasts made by the CFS. However, it is useful when monitored daily in assessing forecasts for the coming months, the confidence levels in these forecasts and in an assessment of how such long range models perform."

No, it's not "less than meaningless." If it was that, why would they bother putting out the product in the first place? It's not to be taken literally, but only as indicator of the pattern setting up during the heart of the season.
2310. skook
Quoting RitaEvac:
Jason will be coming on saying WOW pretty soon





and taz will come on and say," plz stop quoting jason".
Quoting beell:
700mb vorticity centered over the wave axis.




Looking much better Beell.....and conditions are starting to ripen as well as Shear falls as old 90L advances to the West!
ahhhhhhhhhh 90L coming back too life and fast
Quoting skook:





and taz will come on and say," plz stop quoting jason".




LOL
2315. Patrap
Sulu, bring us around for another look,,

if i was the nhc i would bump it back up 20%
Quoting skook:





and taz will come on and say," plz stop quoting jason".


Taz should just be getting up and coming on........LOL......can't wait.......LOL
2319. FLdewey
Riiiight.

"LASER"

How about just more slightly better than meaningless? Literally. ;-)

And don't down the monkey... he had good numbers last year. Or was it a chicken?
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Good lord man...You think that model can spit out the Powerball numbers for Wednesday??


In all seriousness however, that really could happen this year.


lol, I wish.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Taz should just be getting up and coming on........LOL......can't wait.......LOL




am here right now lol been up about 4am
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


852 hrs out?? Where do you get that long of a GFS run?
2324. aquak9
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

cloudburst2011 you will never find the COC on WV imagery we do not use WV to find the COC of tropical system/surface lows WV imagery looks at upper levels not surface you got that get it cleared I don't want to see you make that mistake again


maybe he meant rgb- I have confused it myself with water vapor
Link

LSU low cloud product...it is the bomb diggity..
aquak it was a typing error thats exactly what i meant i have all these windows open getting all the info i can on this developing system..i didnt even notice what he said lol...thanks aqua for being on your toes..
Tampa - you know the burial grounds will protect you ...
Quoting CanesfanatUT:


852 hrs out?? Where do you get that long of a GFS run?


Not GFS, CFS. I found it in Rob Lightbown's Tropical Weather Discussion from this morning.

Quoting FLdewey:
Riiiight.

"LASER"

How about just more slightly better than meaningless? Literally. ;-)

And don't down the monkey... he had good numbers last year. Or was it a chicken?


I'm just saying, it's there for a reason. Is it highly improbable for that exact situation to pan out? Of course it is, that's just simply not going to happen. That's why there is a big disclaimer right above the model. But at the same time, we shouldn't just sit here and only try to forecast the weather 24 hours in advance for the rest of our lives.
2332. FLdewey
Quoting DestinJeff:
Holy 850 Vort...

We are all doom.

Clearly.


Thanks for clearing that up.
2333. yoboi
does anyone have a hurricane dolly track???
nhc has the wave farther west than we have it
Quoting Tazmanian:
if i was the nhc i would bump it back up 20%


Honestly even 30% over the next 48hrs might not be so reasonable to me......based on vorticity and now look at the Convergence and Divergence that just updated! BIG DIFFERENCE!




2338. beell
Quoting TampaSpin:



Looking much better Beell.....and conditions are starting to ripen as well as Shear falls as old 90L advances to the West!


Looks the same as yesterday at 700mb. Nothing at the surface.
Looks to me like a Yucatan rain maker. I know just call me a downcaster...
Quoting TampaSpin:


Honestly even 30% over the next 48hrs might not be so reasonable to me......based on vorticity and now look at the Convergence and Divergence that just updated! BIG DIFFERENCE!







yup
Quoting marknmelb:
Tampa - you know the burial grounds will protect you ...


Sure hope that holds true.........LOL......leaving for Indiana to visit my family next Monday......don't wanna have to leave early or not leave at all for any storm.......
Quoting DestinJeff:


I am so sorry you only have one day to live.


LOL
2346. aquak9
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

ha ha ha ha how in heavan earth and hell are you to get mixed up with that RGB/WV COMPLETELY DIFFRENT LETTERS PLUS RGB=LOW-MID LEVELS/WV=UPPER-UPPER LEVELS


GO LOOK AT POST 2327- -

AND HUSH.
Quoting weaverwxman:
Looks to me like a Yucatan rain maker. I know just call me a downcaster...


youre upsetting the wishcasters
Quoting yoboi:
does anyone have a hurricane dolly track???

Quoting yoboi:
does anyone have a hurricane dolly track???
2350. yoboi
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


thanks
DEWEY!! Raise the doomcon STAT!!!
Quoting yoboi:
does anyone have a hurricane dolly track???
Dolly came from way down in the SE corner of the Caribbean tracking wnw.
Quoting cloudburst2011:
aquak it was a typing error thats exactly what i meant i have all these windows open getting all the info i can on this developing system..i didnt even notice what he said lol...thanks aqua for being on your toes..

ok that is understandable and I am sorry for lashing out like that I know how you could of mix it up right now myself I have 15 tab open on one window plus I have 3 other windows open as well as I said I am sorry
2355. yoboi
Quoting wxmobilejim:


thanks
Quoting wxmobilejim:

thanks
Quoting yoboi:


thanks


You're welcome. :)
my suggestion on the raising of the doomcon is NO DONT DO IT, youll only regret it later,
2358. aquak9
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

ok that is understandable and I am sorry for lashing out like that I know how you could of mix it up right now myself I have 15 tab open on one window plus I have 3 other windows open as well as I said I am sorry


Ok, we cool.
(hands can of cashews back to dewey)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
DEWEY!! Raise the doomcon STAT!!!


thunderboomers over the center
2360. hcubed
Quoting FLdewey:
LMAO... models that far out are less than meaningless. You'd be better off giving a monkey the keys to Photoshop.

True story.


So THAT explains your avitar...
Quoting FLdewey:
LMAO... models that far out are less than meaningless. You'd be better off giving a monkey the keys to Photoshop.

True story.



Doesn't it say "State Farm" in the bottom left, hard to see though?
2362. FLdewey
Quoting CybrTeddy:
DEWEY!! Raise the doomcon STAT!!!

Almost looks annular to me...
Quoting aquak9:


Ok, we cool.
(hands can of cashews back to dewey)


dont waste the nuts
Quoting FLdewey:

Almost looks annular to me...


Pinhole???
Quoting weaverwxman:
Looks to me like a Yucatan rain maker. I know just call me a downcaster...


NO! Yucatan BAD! Come to Texas and find unconditional Love!
Quoting FLdewey:
Riiiight.

"LASER"

How about just more slightly better than meaningless? Literally. ;-)

And don't down the monkey... he had good numbers last year. Or was it a chicken?


A chicken. The chicken then got banned for being a correct chicken.
Quoting HTownJitters:


NO! Yucatan BAD! Come to Texas and find unconditional Love!


now that you say that, i think itll hit everyone else except tx
Q: What will the NHC give 90L at 2PM?

A. Near 0%

B. 10%
C. 20%
D. 30%
E. Drop it from TWO or higher than 40%

*I know that 90L has been deactivated, but to make it easier, just gonna go along and act like it wasn't*
Well I guess it is time for me to finally say hello to everyone. I have been a lurker for years. I have a really big interest in weather (especially tropical)......now back to lurking and learning :)
I will wish it to Texas.Just don't see that happening. I think by end of season Texans might be asking when will this train of storms ever stop.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: What will the NHC give 90L at 2PM?

A. Near 0%

B. 10%
C. 20%
D. 30%
E. Drop it from TWO or higher than 40%

*I know that 90L has been deactivated, but to make it easier, just gonna go along and act like it wasn't*


B. 10%
2373. FLdewey
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Doesn't it say "State Farm" in the bottom left, hard to see though?

LOL... we actually could use a disaster, if for no other reason, to deplete the marketing budgets of insurance companies. The GEICO commercials are fine, farmers is pushing it. The state farm commercials need to be buried.

Now Dairy Queen get's 10 points for a random Olympic joke.
DOOM:CON meeting in 25. We'll see what level it is at then. No need to jump the gun.....ex90L ain't developing that fast.
Quoting FLdewey:

I'm sorry for your loss.

~Dewey

roflmao..bahhaha...at least a cat wasn't involved...bahha
I put the red circle where i believe a Developing Low is forming........

Quoting weatherh98:


now that you say that, i think itll hit everyone else except tx


Well, it is always a long shot at this stage, but that is the fun of wishcasting. The first 5 visible frames this morning made me think it looked much more interesting, but extrapolating from there is not exactly science.
2380. FLdewey
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Pinhole???


I know you can't see me... but I pointed to my nose, and pointed to the screen... ifyaknowhatimsayin.
Quoting DestinJeff:
DOOM:CON operates on a "two-person concept",

like in Wargames: "TURN YOUR KEY, SIR!"

Rarely will both parties agree to "turn [their] key". Thus, DOOM:CON is seldom elevated. However, unilateral raising of the DOOM:CON is not without precedent, but the unintended consequences of such action can be disastorous.

Right now, I have one key and I remember leaving the keys with Dewey last season. I hope he didn't get them duplicated. They clearly say "DO NOT DUPLICATE".

Either way, DOOM:CON is at Level 5 right now, so enjoy the beverage of choice and resume normal activities.


You had left the keys with me that I put away in a secure location here in the UP. I heard Dewey came up and broke in. IDK where they are now.
2382. FLdewey
Quoting DestinJeff:
Right now, I have one key and I remember leaving the keys with Dewey last season.


... and that's why Dewey doesn't drink Tequila any more.
Quoting TampaSpin:
I put the red circle where i believe a Developing Low is forming........



A developing low is forming?...I don't think that makes very much sense..,,lol.
Can I blink yet?
My eyes are getting dry.
2386. JLPR2
Little TW almost seems more interesting than 90L.




Quoting TampaSpin:
I put the red circle where i believe a Developing Low is forming........



There also appears to be a ULL to the west of 90L?
2389. JLPR2
Also, who stole the ITCZ from 40W and further? XD
Quoting CaneAddict:


A developing low is forming?...I don't think that makes very much sense..,,lol.




Not really sure what you don't understand about a Developing Low forming. Would it be better just for YOU to say a Surface Low Forming.........there you go.
2391. hydrus
2392. Patrap
guys 90L is moving wnw if it continues this track for the remainder of its life span then it will end up in southern texas
Starting to look blustery now here in Grand Cayman
2396. alfabob
Might have some trouble holding off those trade-winds again to the SE, would definitely collapse any surface circulation it gets going. Although this is probably the first time that organization has survived the night, so maybe it has a chance still.
Quoting TampaSpin:




Not really sure what you don't understand about a Developing Low forming. Would it be better just for YOU to say a Surface Low Forming.........there you go.

Can't say anything on the blog anymore without someone nit picking it apart.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: What will the NHC give 90L at 2PM?

A. Near 0%

B. 10%
C. 20%
D. 30%
E. Drop it from TWO or higher than 40%

*I know that 90L has been deactivated, but to make it easier, just gonna go along and act like it wasn't*



let's say B to start again
Looks like the Crazies are coming on, so i am getting off until they drink and pass out..........LOL.....see you all later!
Quoting TampaSpin:




Not really sure what you don't understand about a Developing Low forming. Would it be better just for YOU to say a Surface Low Forming.........there you go.


He kinda has a point there, doesn't he? You can't have a developing low forming if it is already developing.

Right?
oi, you lot. New blog.
Quoting TampaSpin:
I put the red circle where i believe a Developing Low is forming........



There's a hint of rotation on the east side, but it could be an illusion created by the burst of convection.

Even so, I don't see how the NHC can keep it at 'near 0%'. I'd say 20% at 2pm. But, if it starts to develop, it could do so very quickly and be a hurricane by the time it gets into the GOM, Given the heat in the water there. Land interaction will be a problem for it, though.
Next African wave holding on...



2404. Buhdog
getting that comma shape....
Quoting DestinJeff:


I knew the The Chart was in a Cold Storage facility in the UP of Michigan, but was grossly unaware about the DOOM:CON Chart keys. This is a game changer! I knew we should have not come up with those plans while in WunQuentin last fall.

Tap-codes between cells to come up with plans like this are not advised in the future.


I'm going to guess he found out where the facility was when we were texting back and forth about the chicken saying where Paula was going.

Gotta get disposable cells the next time.

Either way, the chart and the keys are missing. I've seen the chart pop up on here a few times, which means Deweys got a color copier. Might have to check his place out for counterfeit 20's.

Nice water temps ahead of ex90, but I'm going to be pessimistic and not give it much.
Quoting FLdewey:

LOL... we actually could use a disaster, if for no other reason, to deplete the marketing budgets of insurance companies. The GEICO commercials are fine, farmers is pushing it. The state farm commercials need to be buried.

Now Dairy Queen get's 10 points for a random Olympic joke.


Maybe a missed point, my apologies.

That was State Farms GFS based rate watch hurricane model, it automatically sends out rate increases based on the threat level. They claim the, "Big 886er" as they call it, is one of the more accurate in the industry. They are also working on the "SuperB2160" that will be used in quarterly flood zone reviews.
anyway guy I will be off I am going to go do some bird shooting for the next couple of days I should back on WED if not earler
Hey, all.  Just in from lawn maintenance., and too lazy to read the last few hundred posts...  What is 90L doing this afternoon?
(Using his Jim Carrey Grinch voice) Tough crowd, tough crowd. :)
NEW BLOG