Intense heat wave bakes the Eastern U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:27 PM GMT on July 22, 2011

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Intense heat seared large sections of the U.S. on Thursday, with dozens of new daily high temperature records adding to the formidable number of new records piling up this week. On Wednesday, 140 daily maximum temperature records were tied or broken, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. This represents over 2.4% of all stations in the U.S., which is an exceptionally high number of records for one day. Over the past 30 days, daily high temperature records have outpaced low temperature records by more than 4 to 1, 1859 to 453, and by almost three to one over the past year. Daily high temperature records set yesterday included 100° at Detroit, the first time in sixteen years that city has seen the century mark. Two hyperthermia deaths were reported in the Detroit area, bringing the heat wave death toll for the U.S. to 24 for the week. Newark, NJ hit 103°, just 2° below that city's all-time record hottest temperature of 105°. That record may be challenged today, as the temperature in Newark at 11am was already 100°. Other notable temperatures yesterday included 101° in Syracuse, NY, only 1° below that city's all-time high of 102°; 95° in Binghamton, NY, 3° below their all-time high; 102° in Toledo, 3° below their all-time high; 102° in Raleigh, 3° below that city's all-time high of 105°. Accompanying the heat was high levels of air pollution, which also contributes to mortality. Air pollution reached code red, "Unhealthy", in Gary Indiana yesterday, and was code orange, "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" in thirteen other states.

The blast furnace-like conditions will continue today across much of New England and the mid-Atlantic, where high temperatures are expected to climb above 100° in Washington D.C., Baltimore, and New York City. Air pollution is expected to exceed federal standards and reach code orange, "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups", in at least 18 states today, according to the latest forecasts from EPA. The pollution will be worst in Washington D.C. and Baltimore, where "code red" conditions--"Unhealthy"--are expected. The heat will continue in the mid-Atlantic states through Sunday, then ease on Monday when a cold front is expected to move through.


Figure 1. July temperatures in the lower 48 states between 1895 - 2010 showed a warming of about 1.2°F (red line) during that time period. The warmest July on record was 1936, with an average temperature of 3.1°F above average. The year 2006 was a close second, just 0.1°F behind. If model projections of an increase in U.S. temperature of 4 - 6.5°F by 2100 are correct, an average July in 2050 will have temperatures warmer than the record warm temperatures of 1936. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

The summer of 2011's place in history
July 2011 is on pace to be one of the five hottest months in U.S. history, but may have a tough time surpassing the hottest month of all time, July 1936. In that year, the dry soils of the Midwest's Dust Bowl helped create the most extreme heat wave in U.S. history during July. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a look back at this great heat wave in his current post. I expect that by the time July 2011 is done, it will be a top-five warmest July on record, but will not surpass July of 1936 or July of 2006 (which holds second place, just 0.1° cooler than July 1936.) The summer of 1936 was also the hottest summer in U.S. history. That mark will also be tough to surpass this year, since June 2011 was the 26th warmest June on record, and June 1936 was the 11th warmest. August 1936 was the 4th warmest August on record. At this point, there's no telling how warm August 2011 will be, though NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a much above average chance of warmer than average conditions over 95% of the contiguous U.S for the first week of August.


Figure 2. The 8 - 14 day outlook from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center predicts much above average chances of warmer than normal temperatures during the last few days of July and the first four days of August.

Climate change and U.S. heat waves
The heat index--how hot the air feels when factoring in both the temperature and the humidity--has been exceptionally high during this week's heat wave, due to the presence of very high amounts of water vapor in the atmosphere. That has made this heat wave a very dangerous one, since the body is much less able to cool itself when the humidity is high. The high humidities in the Midwest were due, in great part, to the record rains and flooding over the past few months that have saturated soils and left farmlands flooded. Today's extreme heat index values over the mid-Altantic are due, in large part, to near record warm ocean temperatures off the mid-Atlantic coast. According to the UK's HADSST2 data set, sea surface temperatures between 35° - 40°N and 75 ° - 70°W, along the coast from North Carolina to New Jersey, were 5.4°F (3.0°C) above average during June 2011. This is the warmest such temperature difference for any month in the historical record, going back to the 1800s. The most recent sea surface temperature anomaly maps from NOAA show that the July ocean temperatures have not been quite as extreme, but ocean temperatures in this region during July have averaged nearly 2°C above average, the second highest July ocean temperatures on record, behind 2010.

During the 1930s, there was a high frequency of heat waves due to high daytime temperatures resulting in large part from an extended multi-year period of intense drought. By contrast, in the past 3 to 4 decades, there has been an increasing trend in high-humidity heat waves, which are characterized by the persistence of extremely high nighttime temperatures. In particular, Gaffen and Ross (1999) found that summer nighttime moisture levels increased by 2 - 4% per decade for every region of the contiguous U.S. between 1961 - 1995. Hot and humid conditions at night for a multi-day period are highly correlated with heat stress mortality during heat waves.

Not surprisingly, the frequency, intensity, and humidity of heat waves is expected to increase dramatically in coming decades, if the forecasts of a warmer world due to global warming come true. A study presented in the U.S. Global Change Program Impacts Report, 2009, predicted that by 2080 - 2099, a heat wave that has a 1-in-20 chance of occurring in today's climate will occur every 2 - 3 years over 95% of the contiguous U.S. (Figure 3.) I estimate that this week's U.S. heat wave has been a 1-in-5 to 1-in-20 year event for most locations affected, so heat waves like this week's will be a routine occurrence, nearly every year, by the end of the century. According to a study published by scientists at Stanford University last month, though, this may be too optimistic. In their press release, lead author Noah Diffenbaugh said, "According to our projections, large areas of the globe are likely to warm up so quickly that, by the middle of this century, even the coolest summers will be hotter than the hottest summers of the past 50 years."


Figure 3. Simulations for 2080-2099 indicate how currently rare extremes (a 1-in-20-year event) are projected to become more commonplace. A day so hot that it is currently experienced once every 20 years would occur every other year or more frequently by the end of the century under the higher emissions scenario. Image credit: U.S. Global Change Program Impacts Report, 2009.

Arctic sea ice continues its record retreat
Sea ice in the Arctic continues to melt at the fastest pace in recorded history, as July ice extent has been averaging 5 - 10% less than the record low values set in 2007. According to the July 18 update from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, the rapid decline in the past few weeks is related to persistent above-average temperatures, and an early onset of the melting season due to especially low snow cover in Europe and Asia during May and June. High pressure and clear skies have dominated in the Arctic this summer, but that pattern is changing. The latest 2-week forecast from the GFS model shows that low pressure will dominate the Arctic for the next two weeks, bringing cloudier skies and less melting. This will likely slow down the melting enough so that sea ice loss will no longer be on a record pace by the 2nd week of August.

Tropical Storm Cindy
Tropical Storm Bret is dead, and Tropical Storm Cindy is moving over very chilly waters of 20°C, and does not have long to live. Cindy is not a threat to any land areas.

Invest 90L: an African wave worth watching
An African wave (Invest 90L) near 14N 55W, 400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving west-northwest at about 15 - 20 mph. This wave is generating a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms due to the presence of a large amount of dust and dry air from the Sahara, and will spread heavy rain showers and strong gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles tonight through Saturday. The wave has a modest degree of spin to it, and is under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots.

Dry air will continue to be a problem for 90L through Sunday, but once it finds a moister environment near the Bahama Islands early next week, it could develop. However, the expected track of the disturbance takes it over the rugged terrain of Hispaniola, which would inhibit development. Furthermore, wind shear is expected to rise to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, on Saturday, and could increase further by Monday, according to most of the computer models. Of the latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the four reliable models for predicting formation of a tropical depression, only the NOGAPS model shows development of 90L. The NOGAPS predicts the wave could attain tropical depression status on Tuesday, over the northwestern Bahama Islands just off the coast of Southeast Florida. The other models generally depict too much wind shear for the wave to develop. Right now, the deck appears stacked against development for 90L through at least Monday. NHC is predicting a 20% chance of development by Sunday. The eventual track of 90L next week has been trending more to the south in recent model runs, as they are generally depicting a weaker trough of low pressure developing over the Eastern U.S. This reduces the chances 90L will move up the U.S. East Coast, and increases the chances that it will enter the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 4. Satellite image of Hurricane Dora taken July 20, 2011 by NASA's Aqua satellite.

Hurricane Dora in the Eastern Pacific weakening
Hurricane Dora in the Eastern Pacific put on an impressive burst of intensification yesterday, topping out as an impressive Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds, just 1 mph short of Category 5 status. However, high wind shear acted to knock a hole in Dora's eyewall, which has now collapsed, and steady weakening of the storm will occur today. Dora is expected to move parallel to the coast of Mexico, and should not cause any major trouble in that country. Dora is the second major hurricane in the East Pacific this year; Hurricane Adrian topped out as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds in early June. A NOAA P-3 aircraft will be investigating Dora over the next few days, to learn more about how Eastern Pacific hurricanes weaken when they move over colder water.

Vacation
This will be my last post until Thursday, unless 90L gets far more interesting than the current forecast. I'm headed up north to Lake Michigan to cool off and relax for a few days. In my absence, Angela Fritz will be handling the blogging duties, and she will have a post on the latest forecast for 90L on Saturday. Angela is on Pacific time, so her posts will be later in the day than I make them.

Jeff Masters

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1870. jmgallego
9:12 PM GMT on July 24, 2011
Thank you for point out and sharing the July temperature chart.

I have a question, although the "trend" is showing an increase of 1F per century, what does the "long term average" means? How long is the "long term"?
Thanks!
Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
1869. aislinnpaps
12:22 PM GMT on July 24, 2011
Good morning, everyone. Getting ready to take my Golden down to the lake to beat the heat for a little while before people begin showing up. Anything new going on with the tropics?
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3167
1868. nigel20
6:17 PM GMT on July 23, 2011
Tropical disturbances have a mind of there own; they can develope anytime they want to example: Cindy and Bret.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8489
1866. CybrTeddy
5:42 PM GMT on July 23, 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:
IMO 2pm TWO on 90L = 10%.



A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE AND INTERACTION WITH
HISPANIOLA BY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
SUNDAY.

90L has virtually no chance of developing.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24580
1865. Slamguitar
5:27 PM GMT on July 23, 2011
90L and 33W seem to be picking up now.
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
1864. HurricaneSwirl
5:25 PM GMT on July 23, 2011
Anyone know why what happened to 90L happened? Looked at CIMSS vorticity and it virtually disappeared overnight. Shear was and still is around 10 kts, not to increase until later. Doesn't look like it ingested dry air. It had a very strong moisture shield and it was entering DMAX while it was losing it's organization.. Anyone determined the cause? Probably was the dry air after all.
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1863. CybrTeddy
5:19 PM GMT on July 23, 2011
IMO 2pm TWO on 90L = 10%.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24580
1862. BahaHurican
5:18 PM GMT on July 23, 2011
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
I love it to Teddy but Job,kids ,elderly mother,20 acres to take care of and not to account kids very active in sports and also church function activities does not allow me the luxury to spend all my awaken hrs tracking tropical waves.But I still feel God has blessed me and my family and its them and him I devote my time to.Hobbies are nice but should not be put above neccessities .Take care.
Glad to see u in the blog when u have the time... I respect your opinions though I may not always agree with them.

I think the problem with the "NHC bashing" that I've seen in this blog is not so much the criticism, but the tone of it. A lot of things can be said with respect and not be offensive. Now I didn't go back to read the posts u guys are referring to, but I think there's a place for constructive criticism of any group. When that stops at a governmental level, we start edging towards dictatorship.

However, some people figure they have to be rude with it... and while NHC is not by any means perfect, I think they deserve the respect due them as honorable men and women in the front line of tropical weather. Their responsibility is serious, and to malign their reputation by imputing to them dishonest motives [i.e. to pad their numbers] not only denigrates their status but also could amount to slander or libel.

Let's be clear. To disagree with NHC and its personnel is a perfectly legitimate thing to do; after all, nobody's perfect. But to call people liars in a public forum.... well, u all understand me when I say "them's fighting words".

So be careful little mouth what you say. And if you accuse someone of something, for God's sake have the facts / proof to back it up.

Quoting Hurricanes101:


and that occurred after how many drinks?
Can't believe God would get drunk like that and give up secrets so easy...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
1861. stillwaiting
5:11 PM GMT on July 23, 2011
Quoting atmoaggie:
Wet week.

Percent of normal rainfall better than 200% for most of SE LA:


1.5 inches so far today. That knee-high grass is happy (and safe for today).
did you check out the NO sounding thiis morning excessively moist all the way up
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
1860. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5:11 PM GMT on July 23, 2011
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
1859. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5:07 PM GMT on July 23, 2011
90L/INV/XX
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
1858. aspectre
5:06 PM GMT on July 23, 2011
1828 DestinJeff "The Chart does not actually dictate what happens, but rather actual atmospheric dynamics at any given time.
The Chart never changes, and thankfully has been posted into submission here so collectively we are less likely to assume a certain outcome based on its various peaks and such.
"

Be interesting to see a NewChart based on the most recent 20years (stretched vertically by a factor of 5) for comparison with The(100year)Chart.

And that 100years... Is the period covered revised every year, or is it just a static chart that really never changes from the years used when it was first created.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
1857. HimacaneBrees
5:05 PM GMT on July 23, 2011
Quoting DestinJeff:
Just for gits and shiggles:



Yes!!! It's "THE CHART"
Member Since: August 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1005
1856. IceCoast
5:02 PM GMT on July 23, 2011
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Ice Coast I respet your opinion.But as a son of a WW2 veteran and countless uncles and friends that fought for this country no one has more love and respect for the U>S>A then me.Thats why people like Pat on this blog,regardless if I always agree with thier views they always have my respect first and foremost.But if you believe that a gov agency is always on the levelthan sir you are incorrect.But like I said before man tgoday seems to worry more about mans opinion than God's.I hope you have a good day,respect your opinion just dont agree.Got that right from all the ones who fought and died for us to have that freedom.


Well first and foremost I also respect your opinion, but I think we shouldn't compare the actions of government agencies such as the FBI or CIA with the NHC. I see no reason for the NHC to lie to us, and have not seen any evidence of them doing so for as long as i've watched the tropics. Like I said earlier, if anything they are conservative in there forecasts. It seems we have the exact opposite beliefs, and are never going to agree, but that's what makes this country great.
Have a good day. :)
Member Since: October 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1267
1855. yonzabam
5:01 PM GMT on July 23, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
30-35W, 13N - Watch it...






That wave has some very strong vorticity to it. Spinning like a top.

Link
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3013
1854. wunderkidcayman
5:00 PM GMT on July 23, 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Never seen that before, how accurate is that?

not very at all I don't use it
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12719
1853. wunderkidcayman
4:59 PM GMT on July 23, 2011
Quoting Tazmanian:
90L is RIP wind shear too high

no it is not 5-10kt right near to it as shown on the 15Z shear map
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12719
1852. CybrTeddy
4:59 PM GMT on July 23, 2011
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Experimental cyclone genesis probs

Nothing for three weeks:



Never seen that before, how accurate is that?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24580
1851. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:58 PM GMT on July 23, 2011
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
To the ones that get mad at folks bashing the Nhc?My only question is this, are they not a goverment agency?Are they not paid by the taxpayers of America?Now I agree they are trained experts, but are they God.Are they above being critisized.I believe I have a say if I as a taxpayer are footing the bill.But really gets me about the nursemaids on here for the NHc is the fact these are the same people that bash the presidents, the congress,the military,the postal service etc.Guess what; just like the NHC they are employed by the gov.Who is the gov? We are. We pay all thier salaries.I personally also find the Nhc is a very accurate and informative agency.But they are open game just like any other,To be so naive that its not possible they would not pad numbers is a joke.Do you believe our other gov agencies are always completly honest and upstanding lol The Cia lol,gov agency,FBI gov agency.I think the reason people are not as open minded on here because they are computer weather nerds and bashing the NHC would be well a sacrilidge.Funny how they do not seem to be near as offended on here when some one bashes God.Sign of the times I guess.Just MHO, which means nothing but maybe its something to think about.God bles and good day.


go ahead take away the only early warning system we have for hurricanes then we see how many get out the way when its coming
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
1850. EYEStoSEA
4:58 PM GMT on July 23, 2011
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1496
1849. Neapolitan
4:57 PM GMT on July 23, 2011
NEW BLOG ENTRY
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1848. Tazmanian
4:57 PM GMT on July 23, 2011
90L is RIP wind shear too high
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
1847. Stormchaser2007
4:56 PM GMT on July 23, 2011
Experimental cyclone genesis probs

Nothing for three weeks:

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
1846. EYEStoSEA
4:56 PM GMT on July 23, 2011
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1496
1845. MariettaMoon
4:55 PM GMT on July 23, 2011
This series of major weather events since December 2009 has been unbelievable. From record high sea surface temperatures to several major & record snowstorms, record annual snowfalls, extremely long ski season in the west, incredible tornado outbreaks, record main stem river flooding, "some" record cold, "widespread and plentiful" record heat, record dew points, extreme heat index values, extreme drought. Of course there has always been extreme events, but so many 100 year events in this year and a half span, and I'm only talking about the United States. Of course, we'll have to wait longer to see if we have been violently shoved into new climate normals in this country. Of course, there are some historical temperature extremes that have yet to be broken in this country, but most of them will eventually go. All in all, average temperature is the main key. The only thing missing in this 1 year and 7 month period is a devastating hurricane season.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
1844. Patrap
4:55 PM GMT on July 23, 2011
Ice Coast I respet your opinion.But as a son of a WW2 veteran and countless uncles and friends that fought for this country no one has more love and respect for the U>S>A then me.Thats why people like Pat on this blog,regardless if I always agree with thier views they always have my respect first and foremost.But if you believe that a gov agency is always on the levelthan sir you are incorrect.But like I said before man tgoday seems to worry more about mans opinion than God's.I hope you have a good day,respect your opinion just dont agree.Got that right from all the ones who fought and died for us to have that freedom.


Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
lol God a girl Pat lol.Better watch that one lot of thunderstorms in the area today lol.Have a good day my friend.
As the son of a WW-2 Vet,and a Vet myself,I have the freedom to believe whatever I want.

Many died for that right... right?

Have a good one as well.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
1843. drs2008
4:53 PM GMT on July 23, 2011
Quoting Tazmanian:
90L RIP
Disagree.Convection is increasing.
Member Since: July 4, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 197
1842. SAINTHURRIFAN
4:52 PM GMT on July 23, 2011
lol God a girl Pat lol.Better watch that one lot of thunderstorms in the area today lol.Have a good day my friend.
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 709
1841. CybrTeddy
4:52 PM GMT on July 23, 2011
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Cyber - could you paste the link to the site you are pulling that version of the GFS. thx

Link
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24580
1840. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:50 PM GMT on July 23, 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:
12z GFS 128 hours, off Africa.


Wow, not even five days away from now. Let's see if it shows consistency.

That would be something...To get 90L (a far stretch), and then to get that to develop. Don and Emily...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32870
1839. SAINTHURRIFAN
4:50 PM GMT on July 23, 2011
Ice Coast I respet your opinion.But as a son of a WW2 veteran and countless uncles and friends that fought for this country no one has more love and respect for the U>S>A then me.Thats why people like Pat on this blog,regardless if I always agree with thier views they always have my respect first and foremost.But if you believe that a gov agency is always on the levelthan sir you are incorrect.But like I said before man tgoday seems to worry more about mans opinion than God's.I hope you have a good day,respect your opinion just dont agree.Got that right from all the ones who fought and died for us to have that freedom.
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 709
1838. Tazmanian
4:49 PM GMT on July 23, 2011
90L RIP
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1837. 7544
4:49 PM GMT on July 23, 2011
90l is firing new convection at this hour may get better organize by tonight
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1836. Hurricanes101
4:48 PM GMT on July 23, 2011
Quoting Patrap:
God's not a "paid" member, but she is a Huge Lurker she explained at Mardi Gras last March.


and that occurred after how many drinks?
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
1834. Patrap
4:47 PM GMT on July 23, 2011
God's not a "paid" member, but she is a Huge Lurker she explained at Mardi Gras last March.
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1832. CybrTeddy
4:45 PM GMT on July 23, 2011
12z GFS 128 hours, off Africa.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24580
1831. SAINTHURRIFAN
4:44 PM GMT on July 23, 2011
I love it to Teddy but Job,kids ,elderly mother,20 acres to take care of and not to account kids very active in sports and also church function activities does not allow me the luxury to spend all my awaken hrs tracking tropical waves.But I still feel God has blessed me and my family and its them and him I devote my time to.Hobbies are nice but should not be put above neccessities .Take care.
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 709
1830. weaverwxman
4:44 PM GMT on July 23, 2011
Oh man the blog has gone to he-- in a handbasket
Member Since: November 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 383
1829. jrweatherman
4:44 PM GMT on July 23, 2011
StormW's blog this morning.

UPDATE…JULY 23, 2011 11:30 A.M. EDT:
It is once again quite this morning in the tropics. The office will be closed for the weekend…time to rest. I will be looking at things on and off however. On a reverse note, once the Cape Verde season begins, and we get a ramp up of activity, I will have the office open 7 days a week.
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1063
1827. IceCoast
4:42 PM GMT on July 23, 2011
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
To the ones that get mad at folks bashing the Nhc?My only question is this, are they not a goverment agency?Are they not paid by the taxpayers of America?Now I agree they are trained experts, but are they God.Are they above being critisized.I believe I have a say if I as a taxpayer are footing the bill.But really gets me about the nursemaids on here for the NHc is the fact these are the same people that bash the presidents, the congress,the military,the postal service etc.Guess what; just like the NHC they are employed by the gov.Who is the gov? We are. We pay all thier salaries.I personally also find the Nhc is a very accurate and informative agency.But they are open game just like any other,To be so naive that its not possible they would not pad numbers is a joke.Do you believe our other gov agencies are always completly honest and upstanding lol The Cia lol,gov agency,FBI gov agency.I think the reason people are not as open minded on here because they are computer weather nerds and bashing the NHC would be well a sacrilidge.Funny how they do not seem to be near as offended on here when some one bashes God.Sign of the times I guess.Just MHO, which means nothing but maybe its something to think about.God bles and good day.


I don't think anyone got mad at anyone bashing the NHC. I was just a little irritated by the comment on the number padding. You know what's naive is not looking at the data before making a comment like that. I would love for you or anyone else to show me the data of all the tropical cyclones the NHC has named to "pad numbers."
I can sure show you evidence that says the opposite. If anything they are conservative in naming systems. How many times has this blog been in a frenzy saying a TD should've have been declared etc. And bringing religion into this argument is absolute nonsense.
Member Since: October 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1267
1826. VAbeachhurricanes
4:41 PM GMT on July 23, 2011
Quoting spathy:


It was last year.
Something tropical.
Or is my brain as lame as my foot?
Planters warts frozen BTW.
We were talking about your elevation and where inland was best to go.


Earl came a little close for comfort last year, I think that was it because I was off at college and my mom was calling asking what to do haha, so I asked on here.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
1825. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:40 PM GMT on July 23, 2011
Quoting spathy:


It was last year.
Something tropical.
Or is my brain as lame as my foot?
Planters warts frozen BTW.
We were talking about your elevation and where inland was best to go.


Earl?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32870
1824. CybrTeddy
4:39 PM GMT on July 23, 2011
I'm a proud weather nerd then Saint.

All hail the chart.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24580
1822. weaverwxman
4:37 PM GMT on July 23, 2011
Quoting atmoaggie:
The site's tools have been successfully applied to a post they should have been.

I noticed that comment was removed quickly.
Member Since: November 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 383
1821. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:37 PM GMT on July 23, 2011
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Normally when the percentage is 20% or less they do not specify possible tropical cyclone just a strong tropical wave.


Ohhh. I don't know, maybe they are seeing something we aren't.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32870
1820. Patrap
4:35 PM GMT on July 23, 2011
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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