WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Tropical Storm Arlene slides toward Mexico coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:56 PM GMT on June 29, 2011

Tropical Storm Arlene hasn't intensified much on paper, but thunderstorm activity has increased, and it looks impressive on satellite considering it was just named 24 hours ago. In a 5:30pm EDT special update, the National Hurricane Center said the tropical storm had winds of 60 mph. Thunderstorm activity increased on the southern end of the storm this afternoon, and there is some suggestion that these stronger thunderstorms could begin to wrap around the storm, if it only had more time over the warm, conducive waters of the Bay of Campeche. Tampico, Mexico has sustained winds up to 20 mph out of the north-northeast this evening. Radar indicates the heaviest rainfall is occurring on the southern side of the storm in association with the coldest cloud tops on satellite. Although flooding is expected, this storm is bringing some much needed rain to central Mexico, assuming it can be absorbed into the very dry soil.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Arlene at 5:32pm CDT on June 29, 2011. The strongest convection is to the south of the center of the storm.

An Air Force hurricane hunter reconnaissance mission was in Arlene this afternoon/evening, and found slightly stronger winds than expected. The circulation is broad and surface winds near the center of the storm are only around 35-40 mph. The highest wind speeds were found displaced from the center, associated with the strongest convection. The recon mission measured a minimum central pressure of 996 millibars, which is down from 1000 millibars in the 5pm advisory.

Arlene is having an impact on the U.S., as well. Brownsville, Texas saw a line of heavy showers earlier, and will continue to get rain throughout the evening from the outer rain bands of the storm. Coastal flood statements and rip current statements have been issued from South Padre Island to Port Lavaca, Texas. Strong rip currents and tidal overflow is expected during the next few days as lingering effects of Arlene.


Figure 2. Brownsville, Texas radar at 5:37pm CDT on June 29, 2011. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Arlene are reaching as far north as Brownsville, and coastal flood/rip currents are expected along the southern Texas coast for the next few days.

The forecast for Arlene remains almost the same as this morning. Slight strengthening (to 65 mph) is expected over the next few hours before landfall, though the National Hurricane Center admits there's a small chance winds could exceed hurricane strength. The tropical storm will come ashore south of Tampico, Mexico, just after 2am EDT, and likely will have just missed being 2011's first hurricane by few more hours over water.

Introducing wunderground's Angela Fritz
This evening's post was written by Angela Fritz, who joined wunderground this year after a stint doing weather for CNN. Angela has a Masters degree in meteorology from Georgia Tech, and specialized in hurricane research for her graduate work. She is doing hurricane forecasting for a private weather company this summer, and will be filling in for me on my blog this hurricane season when I am on vacation, mid-July through early August. Angela's excellent writing skills will be put to good use adding content to our Severe Weather Headlines and climate change sections of our web site.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Evening update... woop woop
Thank you Dr Masters for the update.
thanks for the new update!!


Thanks for the update. i think it will peak out at 65mph and everyone watch those waves in the central atlantic they look pretty nice
Quoting Levi32:
Good evening everyone.

000
URNT12 KNHC 292331 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012011
A. 29/23:11:10Z
B. 21 deg 45 min N
095 deg 50 min W
C. NA
D. 51 kt
E. 137 deg 55 nm
F. 178 deg 56 kt
G. 137 deg 55 nm
H. EXTRAP 996 mb
I. 19 C / 399 m
J. 25 C / 392 m
K. 22 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 01
O. 0.02 / 15 nm
P. AF309 0301A ARLENE OB 07 CCA
MAX FL WIND 64 KT N QUAD 20:26:50Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX WINDS FL AND SFC ASSOC WITH AREAS OF CONVECTION WELL AWAY FROM CNTR.
LARGE AREA IN CNTR APPROX 40 NM ACROSS OF WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.

;

Exactly what I've been saying all day has kept Arlene to only slow, gradual strengthening.

That also answers Jed's question from earlier. Thunderstorm gusts well removed from the center don't really count. It's the same as land-based thunderstorms in the lower 48. You might get TS-force winds, but does that truly reflect the pressure gradient from the low pressure area spawning those storms? Usually no.


Levi, does a broad area of lower winds like that signify anything?
I kindly disagree with Angela. It still has another 12-18 hours over water, and shouldn't be making landfall at 2AM.

Thanks Dr. Masters and Angela.
Quoting FLdewey:
Evening update... woop woop
DEWEY!!! Good to see you! Called for rain here today...We got nothing except some impressive clouds.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Thank you Dr Masters for the update.


Thank you..... Angela?

===
This evening's post was written by Angela Fritz, who joined wunderground this year after a stint doing weather for CNN.
===


Welcome aboard, Angela.
T.C.F.A.
01L/TS/A/CX
MARK
21.95N/95.86W
Arlene is slowing down, is down to 4 mph. More time over water.
Quoting TomTaylor:


Levi, does a broad area of lower winds like that signify anything?


Monsoonal lows will do that sometimes. It's a birthmark from Arlene's origins that she will have to rid herself of before making it to hurricane status. Does she have the time? It's certainly possible, but without a recon until the morning, she may never get upgraded before landfall due to inconclusive evidence, even if she is a hurricane. We'll see.
thanks for the update welcome to the underground
Quoting P451:


Thank you..... Angela?

===
This evening's post was written by Angela Fritz, who joined wunderground this year after a stint doing weather for CNN.
===


Welcome aboard, Angela.


Yes,welcome aboard to Angela.
Quoting Levi32:


Monsoonal lows will do that sometimes. It's a birthmark from Arlene's origins that she will have to rid herself of before making it to hurricane status. Does she have the time? It's certainly possible, but without a recon until the morning, she may never get upgraded before landfall due to inconclusive evidence, even if she is a hurricane. We'll see.


"A hurricane warning (HWW) is issued when a hurricane with sustained winds of 74 mph (65 knots, 118 km/h) or higher is expected in a specified coastal area in 36 hours or less"

The NHC issued hurricane warnings, meaning don't they expect it reach hurricane status before landfall?
Quoting Levi32:
Thanks Dr. Masters and Angela.

Hey Levi can i please have your thoughts on the tropical waves over the atlantic right now and if you see development in the future, also will texas get any relief from the drought anytime soon like will the texasridge weaken and do u think arlene will get to a hurricane? thanks :)
Good to have you, Angela. Looking at your CV and resume, you definitely have some enviable skills and experience. Your Master's thesis on IKE in the North Atlantic? How cool is that? ;-)

Anyway, ATCF says:

AL, 01, 2011063000, , BEST, 0, 214N, 958W, 50, 996, TS, 50, NEQ, 60, 40, 70, 0, 1008, 200, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ARLENE, D,
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


"A hurricane warning (HWW) is issued when a hurricane with sustained winds of 74 mph (65 knots, 118 km/h) or higher is expected in a specified coastal area in 36 hours or less"

The NHC issued hurricane warnings, meaning don't they expect it reach hurricane status before landfall?


Not necessarily.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND
HURRICANE WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA
NORTHWARD TO LA CRUZ.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


"A hurricane warning (HWW) is issued when a hurricane with sustained winds of 74 mph (65 knots, 118 km/h) or higher is expected in a specified coastal area in 36 hours or less"

The NHC issued hurricane warnings, meaning don't they expect it reach hurricane status before landfall?
I would have to say yes and no.Theirs certainly a chance she could reach hurricane strength which is why they put the warning up.
Quoting Levi32:


Monsoonal lows will do that sometimes. It's a birthmark from Arlene's origins that she will have to rid herself of before making it to hurricane status. Does she have the time? It's certainly possible, but without a recon until the morning, she may never get upgraded before landfall due to inconclusive evidence, even if she is a hurricane. We'll see.
so if Arlene was to make it to hurricane status, it would have to shed that large area of calm winds? or at least shrink it?

and yea, I figured it had to do with the monsoonal origins of the storm

Levi, Any chance for development with this one ?


TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 51W/52W S OF 15N
MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE
SURGE AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE
IS WELL DEFINE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SATELLITE WINDS INDICATING A BROAD CURVATURE. WAVE IS BENEATH AN
UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WAVE.
Welcome to WU, Angela. Glad to have you on board.

And thank you for the post.
Quoting elninosucks:

Hey Levi can i please have your thoughts on the tropical waves over the atlantic right now and if you see development in the future, also will texas get any relief from the drought anytime soon like will the texasridge weaken and do u think arlene will get to a hurricane? thanks :)


The tropical waves aren't in a position to do a whole lot out there. They will have to be watched in the Caribbean.

Texas will likely get their relief later in the summer due to tropical moisture.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Good to have you, Angela.

AL, 01, 2011063000, , BEST, 0, 214N, 958W, 50, 996, TS, 50, NEQ, 60, 40, 70, 0, 1008, 200, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ARLENE, D,
So what does that mean?
Just glad Arlene is the only one out there.
This Angela/Arlene thing is confusing lol.

Thanks for the update.
29. P451
Mexico Radars ending 2345z.



Quoting washingtonian115:
So what does that mean?


50 knots/996 millibars -> 60 mph/996 mb. --> No change in strength.
Arlene is only moving 4MPH so it could make hurricane status before landfall. Being a large, slow moving storm, Arlene could cause a lot of flooding damage & death.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:

Levi, Any chance for development with this one ?


TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 51W/52W S OF 15N
MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE
SURGE AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE
IS WELL DEFINE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SATELLITE WINDS INDICATING A BROAD CURVATURE. WAVE IS BENEATH AN
UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WAVE.


It will be following a fairly favorable upper-level environment through the Caribbean, so it should be watched. However, the trade winds through the Caribbean are currently rather fast as they flow into Arlene, making it difficult for the tropical wave to amplify.
Nice new post to explain what is going on. So how many storms will there be when Dr. M is on vacation??? Things usualy heat up while he is gone.
"Arlene, my darling"...
Quoting Dakster:
Nice new post to explain what is going on. So how many storms will there be when Dr. M is on vacation??? Things usualy heat up while he is gone.


A bunch. Every time he goes on vacation, we get at least one named storm during that period.
Quoting Dakster:
Nice new post to explain what is going on. So how many storms will there be when Dr. M is on vacation??? Things usualy heat up while he is gone.
"Several"
Quoting Neapolitan:
Good to have you, Angela. Looking at your CV and resume, you definitely have some enviable skills and experience. Your Master's thesis on IKE in the North Atlantic? How cool is that? ;-)

Anyway, ATCF says:

AL, 01, 2011063000, , BEST, 0, 214N, 958W, 50, 996, TS, 50, NEQ, 60, 40, 70, 0, 1008, 200, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ARLENE, D,

Be nice, Neo.
Overall convection continues to improve, it's a shame we will be losing visible sat soon though.
Quoting GainesvilleGator:
Arlene is only moving 4MPH so it could make hurricane status before landfall. Being a large, slow moving storm, Arlene could cause a lot of flooding damage & death.
Based off of the last vortex message it was about 95 miles off shore. At that speed it would have 19 more hrs before landfall. However, I expect that it will speed up with time and likely has somewhere around 15 hrs before landfall. Given that timing, it will have a decent amount of time and it will make it through the next DMAX so it does have a shot at hurricane status. Shear, dry air, upper level conditions, and SSTs are all favorable for further intensification.

The only thing is, I don't know if it will intensify to hurricane status as the broad low level circulation, proximity to land, lack of time, and perhaps lack of another recon flight will all be working against Arlene's run at hurricane status.
Quoting Levi32:


It will be following a fairly favorable upper-level environment through the Caribbean, so it should be watched. However, the trade winds through the Caribbean are currently rather fast as they flow into Arlene, making it difficult for the tropical wave to amplify.

Levi wont the shear in carribean weaken as arlene moves out of the picture
tropical wave got new t.storms with it.
Quoting Levi32:


It will be following a fairly favorable upper-level environment through the Caribbean, so it should be watched. However, the trade winds through the Caribbean are currently rather fast as they flow into Arlene, making it difficult for the tropical wave to amplify.
Thank you. Just surprised that the NHC keeps mentioning it in such a favorable way. Do you still think the Caribbean is at a pretty high risk this year ? Several attempted to develop in the Caribbean last year without much success. Could that be the case this year again or can we expect development while they are in the Caribbean ?
Quoting Tazmanian:




it means i post this



taz, is that you?
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Be nice, Neo.

I was being nice; anyone wanting to be a met or climatologist should be jealous of Ms. Fritz's already-impressive resume.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Based off of the last vortex message it was about 95 miles off shore. At that speed it would have 19 more hrs before landfall. However, I expect that it will speed up with time and likely has somewhere around 15 hrs before landfall. Given that timing, it will have a decent amount of time and it will make it through the next DMAX so it does have a shot at hurricane status. Shear, dry air, upper level conditions, and SSTs are all favorable for further intensification.

The only thing is, I don't know if it will intensify to hurricane status as the broad low level circulation, proximity to land, lack of time, and perhaps lack of another recon flight will all be working against Arlene's run at hurricane status.

Hey, Big Guy, how ya been? How come I have to log in now to see your posts.

You been drinking my Heineken Again!!?

Hey, love the blog. Great links in there.
Quoting TomTaylor:
taz, is that you?



LOL no prsslord
okay i see now what theyll do at NHC, there upgrading it to 65 next. recon found constant winds in the NE quad of 60-65-70, and 3 dropsondes of hurricane force.
and at the 2 am it should be 70 or 75.
49. P451
We've got rough 2/3rds of a system here. Not conducive to strengthening. Entire NW quadrant is almost non-existant at the moment.



Will just have to wait and see how she handles that NW quadrant. As of now earlier convection continues to wane. Will she generate another burst and will it build a complete core?

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


A bunch. Every time he goes on vacation, we get at least one named storm during that period.
I am calling for 20 named and 5 cat 5's...
Quoting Neapolitan:

I was being nice; anyone wanting to be a met should be jealous of Ms. Frtiz's already-impressive resume.

Okay, just checking. You realize she's not a "climatologist" though?

A great resume indeed. Good to have her aboard.
Looks like we can have a chance of 3 new tropical storms in the atlantic after Arlene

Follow this link if you want to see the map I am using:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=20 11062912&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation
actually it could be 4 or more. According to GFS
So helping arlene is the fact that according to the fixes that recon shows it appears that the center has relocated and became stacked once again, along with it slowing down.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Thank you. Just surprised that the NHC keeps mentioning it in such a favorable way. Do you still think the Caribbean is at a pretty high risk this year ? Several attempted to develop in the Caribbean last year without much success. Could that be the case this year again or can we expect development while they are in the Caribbean ?
I'm not Levi, but the reason why they keep mentioning it is because upper level conditions are expected to become favorable as an upper level anticyclone moves over the Caribbean in a few days. This will reduce shear and help provide upper divergence to ventilate any convection. Additionally, MJO will be in our basin, and last night's 0z runs had the GFS and ECMWF had something come out of the Caribbean and enter the Gulf at the end of the run (around 7-10 days). The 12z GFS of today also showed a vort max coming from the Caribbean and making landfall in northern Florida. Now keep in mind, this is over a week out, so models at this time are sketchy at best, but I can see why the NHC has been mentioning the waves.
Quoting P451:
We've got rough 2/3rds of a system here. Not conducive to strengthening. Entire NW quadrant is almost non-existant at the moment.



Will just have to wait and see how she handles that NW quadrant. As of now earlier convection continues to wane. Will she generate another burst and will it build a complete core?



Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Thank you. Just surprised that the NHC keeps mentioning it in such a favorable way. Do you still think the Caribbean is at a pretty high risk this year ? Several attempted to develop in the Caribbean last year without much success. Could that be the case this year again or can we expect development while they are in the Caribbean ?


Above-normal heat content for this type of a year in the eastern Caribbean and central Atlantic, along with more ridging across the Atlantic, puts the Caribbean at higher risk.
Thanks Dr. Masters and Angela.
Quoting Neapolitan:

I was being nice; anyone wanting to be a met or climatologist should be jealous of Ms. Fritz's already-impressive resume.


I am LOL.

You don't see much women meteorologists, so that's very good for her to do what she's accomplished.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
So helping arlene is the fact that according to the fixes that recon shows it appears that the center has relocated and became stacked once again, along with it slowing down.

For a moderately strong TS?
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Hey, Big Guy, how ya been? How come I have to log in now to see your posts.

You been drinking my Heineken Again!!?

Hey, love the blog. Great links in there.
gotta bad rep somehow

idk, perhaps the trolls are after me, or maybe my posts just really are bad lol

and oh yeah, thanks for reminding me about my blog, I was going to announce it on this blog so people could see.

For those looking for any and all weather links, I suggest you check out my blog!

I got a little over 4 hundo of them links, so check it out
Quoting Levi32:


Above-normal heat content for this type of a year in the eastern Caribbean and central Atlantic, along with more ridging across the Atlantic, puts the Caribbean at higher risk.
Tom and Levi, thanks for answering and putting me on edge LOL j/k but I never feared hurricanes before but thanks to Ivan I do now. Not so much Cat1-3 but above that I do.
Quoting caneswatch:


I am LOL.

You don't see much women meteorologists, so that's very good for her to do what she's accomplished.


I'd say thats true to an extent, but women in weather are a growing field especially in areas of research and education.
Quoting TomTaylor:
gotta bad rep somehow

idk, perhaps the trolls are after me, or maybe my posts just really are bad lol

and oh yeah, thanks for reminding me about my blog, I was going to announce it on this blog so people could see.

For those looking for any and all weather links, I suggest you check out my blog


Nah, man. It ain't you. Just a bad element.

Enjoy your posts. Just bummed to see them hidden.
via Twitter
angelafritz I <3 wunderground.com/tropical
about 22 hours ago

Welcome to WUnderland Angela...
It is a strange and WUnderful place

Good luck and thanks for joining us,
it is always a "trying time" when Jeff goes on vacation!
So, thanks for being ready to try to "keep us together"
while he is off.

CRS
Quoting unruly:
DEWEY!!! Good to see you! Called for rain here today...We got nothing except some impressive clouds.


LOL... we got dumped on today, so the yard is happy. How have ya been? Ready for 2011; Year of the kitteh.
improved Dvorak tonight



70. P451
dvorak showing the poor core structure nicely this evening. Perhaps she wraps up as she comes closer to land which should aide in her tightening up.



The convective burst on her east side is warming at this time so it is tough to call how well it might wrap around into that NW quadrant in the coming hours and how intense it might be.


For me it's something to check in on in the morning hours. Did it/Didn't it. Time to sign off-

Quoting MrstormX:


I'd say thats true to an extent, but women in weather are a growing field especially in areas of research and education.


I meant to say right now, but yes, I know there are more coming along into the field.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Okay, just checking. You realize she's not a "climatologist" though?

A great resume indeed. Good to have her aboard.

I didn't say she was; I merely noted that anyone wishing to become one could do worse than follow her career path. She earned a BS in Meteorology from Valpo, then an M.S. in Earth and Atmospheric Science from GIT, and has even published a few articles in between chasing tornadoes across the plains. Okay, I'll shut up now; I'm just happy to see yet another professional on board.
Quoting P451:
dvorak showing the poor core structure nicely this evening. Perhaps she wraps up as she comes closer to land which should aide in her tightening up.



The convective burst on her east side is warming at this time so it is tough to call how well it might wrap around into that NW quadrant in the coming hours and how intense it might be.


For me it's something to check in on in the morning hours. Did it/Didn't it. Time to sign off-



All true. She will struggle to get her core tightened enough to reach hurricane status, though it is very possible that she will make it. Tough call, though. It's a wait and see deal at this point.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Nah, man. It ain't you. Just a bad element.

Enjoy your posts. Just bummed to see them hidden.
lol, you're bummed? I'm bummed! Sometimes I wonder if I type all this text for nothing since nobody can see it lol

pretty disappointing
Quoting P451:
dvorak showing the poor core structure nicely this evening. Perhaps she wraps up as she comes closer to land which should aide in her tightening up.



The convective burst on her east side is warming at this time so it is tough to call how well it might wrap around into that NW quadrant in the coming hours and how intense it might be.


For me it's something to check in on in the morning hours. Did it/Didn't it. Time to sign off-


She sure isn't as tight as she once was. Although she was never really quite stacked to begin with...
Quoting Neapolitan:

I didn't say she was; I merely noted that anyone wishing to become one could do worse than follow her career path. She earned a BS in Meteorology from Valpo, then an M.S. in Earth and Atmospheric Science from GIT, and has even published a few articles in between chasing tornadoes across the plains. Okay, I'll shut up now; I'm just happy to see yet another professional on board.


Ahh Valpo, the closest met school to my house...meet one of the professors once..good guy, smart with weather as well.
Welcome Angela!!!! and Go Dawgs!!!!!
Quoting TomTaylor:
lol, you're bummed? I'm bummed! Sometimes I wonder if I type all this text for nothing if nobody can see it lol

Nope. Don't sweat the small stuff.

People will find a way to read if they want good info.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Tom and Levi, thanks for answering and putting me on edge LOL j/k but I never feared hurricanes before but thanks to Ivan I do now. Not so much Cat1-3 but above that I do.
Like I said, models out that far are sketchy at best, so I wouldn't really worry about it
80. wpb
mexico radar near the center has anyone posted?
Quoting FLdewey:


LOL... we got dumped on today, so the yard is happy. How have ya been? Ready for 2011; Year of the kitteh.
"snaps salute" Ready!!!
Hoping for some thunderstorms here but its not happening yet...
Test
Arlene on MIMIC. It doesn't have much time.
So.... Any Stormchasers going to Mexico for this one? Gonna be intresting to see condtions on the Mexican Coast tommorow.
Quoting presslord:
Welcome Angela!!!! and Go Dawgs!!!!!


Since GT is a rival of my favorite team,

It's all about The U!!!!!
Quoting presslord:
Welcome Angela!!!! and Go Dawgs!!!!!


Hahaha, I approve of the "Go Dawgs!"
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Nope. Don't sweat the small stuff.

People will find a way to read if they want good info.
well, I'd certainly hope so.

Quoting cat5hurricane:

She sure isn't as tight as she once was.
lmao, woah there! talk about inappropriate!


jk. Sorry, I had to, first read that and busted up. back to the tropics now
Quoting wpb:
mexico radar near the center has anyone posted?
Link
Quoting MrstormX:


I'd say thats true to an extent, but women in weather are a growing field especially in areas of research and education.
I think it's sexist to even discuss whether someone is a man or a woman and stupid. This person is a person who is a met, not a man or a woman. Get it?
Texas Drought Declared Natural Disaster

Drought and wildfires have lead to the decision by the US Department of Agriculture to declare the entire state of Texas a natural disaster

KCBD in Lubbock reports that in all, 213 counties in Texas have lost at least 30 percent of their crops or pasture.

The disaster declaration will allow farmers and ranchers to qualify for emergency loans at lower interest rates.

"This is a disaster," Texas farmer Scott Harmon said. "This is a train wreck."
Going back to earlier comments, many models are predicting multiple East Coast straddling storms. This seems to be a trend and I suspect we will see an invest in that region over the next week. Here is the models that support this phenomenon:


CMC
- 3 storms

GFS
- 3-4 storms

NOGAPS - 1 land-falling storm

NAM - At least 1 storm

NMM - 1 evident storm

HWRF
- 1 Storm in latest run, but up to 3 earlier
Quoting Patrap:
Texas Drought Declared Natural Disaster

Drought and wildfires have lead to the decision by the US Department of Agriculture to declare the entire state of Texas a natural disaster
And a President desperate for re-election.
China~ More than 16,000 people were forced to evacuate their homes Wednesday as torrential rains pelted parts of south Guangdong Province, local flood control authorities said. Heavy rains unleashed by summer monsoons started to pound the Pearl River Delta and the province's west coastal region Tuesday evening, disrupting traffic and forcing people in low-lying areas to leave their homes, said a spokesman with the provincial flood control headquarters. Over 13,500 of the evacuees were from the worst-hit city of Yangjiang, while the evacuation of the rest 2,500 was reported in the city of Taishan, where downpours flooded 20 villages, said the spokesman. The headquarters Wednesday sent a work team to the rain-ravaged regions to direct flood-relief operations. Torrential rains also lashed nearby Fujian Province and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, prompting local authorities to issue warnings of potential geological disasters. Authorities in the southwestern province of Sichuan also asked residents to guard against possible landslides and mountain torrents as more rains are expected to hit parts of the province later this week.
Quoting MrstormX:
Going back to earlier comments, many models are predicting multiple East Coast straddling storms. This seems to be a trend and I suspect we will see an invest in that region over the next week. Here is the models that support this phenomenon:


CMC
- 3 storms

GFS
- 3-4 storms

NOGAPS - 1 land-falling storm

NAM - At least 1 storm

NMM - 1 evident storm

HWRF
- 1 Storm in latest run, but up to 3 earlier


We cannot know if they are cold-core lows or not though, like we have seen so far this season.
Quoting TomTaylor:
lol, you're bummed? I'm bummed! Sometimes I wonder if I type all this text for nothing since nobody can see it lol

pretty disappointing


I Can see your Posts and I Read them. I Read everyone's posts... Im sure everyone reads your posts.. but you have to understand there are 3 groups of people on the blog:

1) People like me, who see the posts... but cannot fathom an reply to your question/comment

2) People who see it, but tend to ignore.. since they think that the question/comment is annoying/silly/unappropriate/unuseful (they just dont care)

3) E.g. Levi - People who reply/answer to any question/comment and answer no matter what belief the person holds.


Mad Face...
Nigeria~ Eleven people were killed by lightning in two communities in northern Nigeria during torrential rains, Red Cross and local officials said Wednesday. Eight peasant farmers were killed and another 12 injured on Tuesday during a thunderstorm outside Balanga village in Gombe State, Nigerian Red Cross official Bala Ahmed said. "The farmers were working on their farms when it started to rain and they sought shelter under a tree which was then struck by lightning," Ahmed said. In a separate incident in Damaturu, the Yobe state capital, three people were struck by lightning during a downpour in a timber market, the head of the market, Abbati Muhammad said. Lightning "struck and three people who had come to buy firewood were caught in it and died on the spot", he said. Lightning strikes occur in Nigeria during the rainy season which has just begun. Nigeria experienced severe flooding last year, which left scores dead and affected around half a million people in two-thirds of its 36 states, according to the emergency agency, which has predicted unprecedented heavy rainfall and severe flooding this rainy season. Several other cities, including the nation's commercial capital Lagos, have experienced flooding in recent days as a result of heavy rains.
Quoting twincomanche:
I think it's sexist to even discuss whether someone is a man or a woman and stupid. This person is a person who is a met, not a man or a woman. Get it?


I don't know why you are quoting me, my comment was positive and now I'm sexist?
100. Tygor
Quoting twincomanche:
And a President desperate for re-election.


Somehow I doubt he's trying to get Texas votes as it's as Red as it comes.
A lightning strike at a primary school in western Uganda has killed 18 students and injured at least 50 others. Lightning hit Runyanya Primary School in Kiryandongo district, about 225 kilometres north-west of Kampala, killing 15 girls and three boys, police spokeswoman Judith Nabakooba said. "The injured were taken to hospital nearby and 15 of those who were seriously injured were transferred to Mulago hospital [in Kampala]," she said. Local media reported that a further 21 pupils were burned after lightning struck at a second school in Zombo district, around 380 kilometres north of Kampala. Police could not confirm the incident. Ms Nabakooba could not provide an exact figure for the total number killed by lightning in recent weeks, but local newspaper The Daily Monitor reported a total of 28 killed and scores injured in the past week, including Tuesday's incidents. Uganda is experiencing unseasonably heavy rainstorms and concern about the number of recent lightning strikes has prompted politicians to demand an official explanation from government.
Quoting Skyepony:
A lightning strike at a primary school in western Uganda has killed 18 students and injured at least 50 others. Lightning hit Runyanya Primary School in Kiryandongo district, about 225 kilometres north-west of Kampala, killing 15 girls and three boys, police spokeswoman Judith Nabakooba said. "The injured were taken to hospital nearby and 15 of those who were seriously injured were transferred to Mulago hospital [in Kampala]," she said. Local media reported that a further 21 pupils were burned after lightning struck at a second school in Zombo district, around 380 kilometres north of Kampala. Police could not confirm the incident. Ms Nabakooba could not provide an exact figure for the total number killed by lightning in recent weeks, but local newspaper The Daily Monitor reported a total of 28 killed and scores injured in the past week, including Tuesday's incidents. Uganda is experiencing unseasonably heavy rainstorms and concern about the number of recent lightning strikes has prompted politicians to demand an official explanation from government.
Let's see now someone is asking government for a explanation of a lightening strike? This has to be the height of absurdity.
It just gets more bazarr.. UK~

A "mild tsunami" along the South West coast was probably caused by an underwater landslide, a coastal expert has said. The unusual tidal surge struck the Cornwall, Devon, Dorset and Hampshire coastline on Monday morning. There were reports of rivers changing direction, fish leaping out of water and hair standing on end due to static. Dr Mark Davidson, from the University of Plymouth, said the surge was quite a "rare" occurrence. The first reports of the event came from St Michael's Mount in Cornwall. Boatman Dave Ladner said: "The funniest thing was on the causeway all the ladies' hair was standing on end with the static. "The sea on the eastern side was probably 8ins (20cm) to a 1ft (0.3m) higher than the rest and it was pouring over the causeway like a torrent rather than just a gentle meeting in the middle." Roland Stewart from Millbrook, near Plymouth, said: "It was quite violent in a way, my dinghy was moving around with the movement of the water and I just wondered what the hell was going on.... within 15 minutes it was all over."

Amateur video footage shot on the Yealm estuary, to the east of Plymouth, shows the surge. Bob Brown was launching his dinghy at the mouth of estuary at 1015 BST, an hour after low tide when he saw the wave. He said: "The tide was coming in from left to right, all of a sudden it stopped coming in from the sea and went back the other way. "It came back at quite a force, all the boats were bobbing around. "To see a tide suddenly stop and go back the other way at four times the speed was unbelievable." He said a local landowner told him the first thing he noticed was "lots and lots of fish jumping out of the water". Dr Davidson, an associate professor in coastal processes, told BBC Spotlight: "[Surges] are quite rare and it's probably not a tidal phenomenon. "It's probably more likely to be a tsunami of some kind, obviously it's quite mild. "It's probably not due to an earthquake, which is the normal source. "It's probably more likely to be a sub-marine landslide." According to the Tidal Gauge Anomaly measure, which records the difference between the forecast tide and the actual tide, the anomaly on Monday morning in Newlyn, Cornwall was 0.2m (0.7ft), in Plymouth 0.3m (1ft) and in Portsmouth 0.4m (1.3ft). The MET Office in Exeter said it did not think anything in the weather could have caused the change in the tidal pattern. The British Geological Survey said there was no seismic activity in UK waters over the weekend.
THIS ONE IS JUST TO CLOSE TO LAND WE MAY NOT BE SO LUCKY THE NEXT TIME!
Quoting MrstormX:
Going back to earlier comments, many models are predicting multiple East Coast straddling storms. This seems to be a trend and I suspect we will see an invest in that region over the next week. Here is the models that support this phenomenon:


CMC
- 3 storms

GFS
- 3-4 storms

NOGAPS - 1 land-falling storm

NAM - At least 1 storm

NMM - 1 evident storm

HWRF
- 1 Storm in latest run, but up to 3 earlier
I only see one true storm on that GFS run. There are two other blobs of precipitation I see (and they also show up on vort maps), but I wouldn't call those storms as they don't even show up on the pressure maps. Also, the one storm the GFS does appear to develop from a trough split, doesn't look very strong



two closed isobars is maybe a very weak TS but even if that solution came true, with NHC's conservative background in mind, I doubt that would get a name.
Good evening, all. Arlene certainly looks healthier this evening, although she could use more convection in her northwest quadrant. I doubt she will reach hurricane strength, at any rate.
Quoting elninosucks:
Press 1 if Obama is a bad president and if Arlene will make it to hurricane stregtnth press
press 1.1 if u hate obama and arlene will only be a ts
press 2 if u like obama and arlene will be a hurricane
press 2.2 if u like obama and arlene wont be a hurricane
I'm going with option 1.1


Ummm...Don't include Obama in a poll on a weather site. That will get you banned.
Quoting sunlinepr:


Mad Face...
LOL thats quite the face

105 - video of that if you can see it: Link

A tsunami in the loosest sense.
Quoting gulfbreeze:
THIS ONE IS JUST TO CLOSE TO LAND WE MAY NOT BE SO LUCKY THE NEXT TIME!


Sometimes, that's what causes them to ramp up (Humberto)

Man though, Arlene was exactly what Texas needed. Mexico needed it too as well.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


We cannot know if they are cold-core lows or not though, like we have seen so far this season.


Phase analysis will tell you if the model is forecasting something cold core or not. I checked CMC 12Z earlier they were all cold core.
Quoting Neapolitan:

I didn't say she was; I merely noted that anyone wishing to become one could do worse than follow her career path. She earned a BS in Meteorology from Valpo, then an M.S. in Earth and Atmospheric Science from GIT, and has even published a few articles in between chasing tornadoes across the plains. Okay, I'll shut up now; I'm just happy to see yet another professional on board.


I agree with you on that very impressive and we as in the blog can use all the help we can get. CNN's loss our gain.

Welcome to the show Angela

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Sometimes, that's what causes them to ramp up (Humberto)

Man though, Arlene was exactly what Texas needed. Mexico needed it too as well.
I don't think Texas is going to get significant rains from Arlene. Maybe an inch or two across deep south Texas.
Quoting Skyepony:
It just gets more bazarr.. UK~

A "mild tsunami" along the South West coast was probably caused by an underwater landslide, a coastal expert has said. The unusual tidal surge struck the Cornwall, Devon, Dorset and Hampshire coastline on Monday morning. There were reports of rivers changing direction, fish leaping out of water and hair standing on end due to static. Dr Mark Davidson, from the University of Plymouth, said the surge was quite a "rare" occurrence. The first reports of the event came from St Michael's Mount in Cornwall. Boatman Dave Ladner said: "The funniest thing was on the causeway all the ladies' hair was standing on end with the static. "The sea on the eastern side was probably 8ins (20cm) to a 1ft (0.3m) higher than the rest and it was pouring over the causeway like a torrent rather than just a gentle meeting in the middle." Roland Stewart from Millbrook, near Plymouth, said: "It was quite violent in a way, my dinghy was moving around with the movement of the water and I just wondered what the hell was going on.... within 15 minutes it was all over."

Amateur video footage shot on the Yealm estuary, to the east of Plymouth, shows the surge. Bob Brown was launching his dinghy at the mouth of estuary at 1015 BST, an hour after low tide when he saw the wave. He said: "The tide was coming in from left to right, all of a sudden it stopped coming in from the sea and went back the other way. "It came back at quite a force, all the boats were bobbing around. "To see a tide suddenly stop and go back the other way at four times the speed was unbelievable." He said a local landowner told him the first thing he noticed was "lots and lots of fish jumping out of the water". Dr Davidson, an associate professor in coastal processes, told BBC Spotlight: "[Surges] are quite rare and it's probably not a tidal phenomenon. "It's probably more likely to be a tsunami of some kind, obviously it's quite mild. "It's probably not due to an earthquake, which is the normal source. "It's probably more likely to be a sub-marine landslide." According to the Tidal Gauge Anomaly measure, which records the difference between the forecast tide and the actual tide, the anomaly on Monday morning in Newlyn, Cornwall was 0.2m (0.7ft), in Plymouth 0.3m (1ft) and in Portsmouth 0.4m (1.3ft). The MET Office in Exeter said it did not think anything in the weather could have caused the change in the tidal pattern. The British Geological Survey said there was no seismic activity in UK waters over the weekend.
strange days indeed and stranger yet to come
I dont think arlene will stregnthen anymore. all the deep thunderstorm activity is weakining
The Doc's post from a day or two ago about weather extremes also got noticed over here, the Guardian even providing piccies:

Link
Quoting elninosucks:
I dont think arlene will stregnthen anymore. all the deep thunderstorm activity is weakining
pack it up turn off the computer step away from the keyboard see ya later
I expect Arlene to become a minimal hurricane during DMAX.

Quoting twincomanche:
Let's see now someone is asking government for a explanation of a lightening strike? This has to be the height of absurdity.
Not for a country that is so religious that it came close to making homosexuality a capital offense. I wouldn't expect rational thought.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Good evening, all. Arlene certainly looks healthier this evening, although she could use more convection in her northwest quadrant. I doubt she will reach hurricane strength, at any rate.


I think it'll be a close call, but chances are that even if she makes it, the NHC won't upgrade without visible light or recon to help confirm.
Oh well, if every storm were a hurricane that would get very boring very quick. I don't see much more intensification from Arlene due to her proximity to land, but also her overall lack of a consistent COC.
Quoting elninosucks:
I dont think arlene will stregnthen anymore. all the deep thunderstorm activity is weakining
that's probably due to the convective diurnal minimum. I'd expect convection to flair up again later as we begin to head toward the convective d max
Quoting TomTaylor:
gotta bad rep somehow

idk, perhaps the trolls are after me, or maybe my posts just really are bad lol

and oh yeah, thanks for reminding me about my blog, I was going to announce it on this blog so people could see.

For those looking for any and all weather links, I suggest you check out my blog!

I got a little over 4 hundo of them links, so check it out


Man it'll take a life time to understand every thing all those sites have to offer. you are definitely not lacking of bookmarks thanks for sharing them.

blsealevel
never mind i was wrong looks more of rapid intensification now..
Quoting Levi32:


I think it'll be a close call, but chances are that even if she makes it, the NHC won't upgrade without visible light or recon to help confirm.


True, but they could also upgrade it since the government of Mexico has already issued hurricane warnings and its a threat to land. That's what they usually do, or sometimes do, don't they? Upgrade the system just a little because it is a threat to land?
Quoting elninosucks:
never mind i was wrong looks more of rapid intensification now..


You flip between predictions like a fish.

Quoting Levi32:


I think it'll be a close call, but chances are that even if she makes it, the NHC won't upgrade without visible light or recon to help confirm.
Well they usually have recon constantly survey storms that are approaching land, don't they?
Quoting KoritheMan:

I don't think Texas is going to get significant rains from Arlene. Maybe an inch or two across deep south Texas.


I meant that it was what they needed but they're not getting.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Well they usually have recon constantly survey storms that are approaching land, don't they?


We won't have recon until 12Z in the morning.
Quoting Patrap:
Texas Drought Declared Natural Disaster

Drought and wildfires have lead to the decision by the US Department of Agriculture to declare the entire state of Texas a natural disaster

KCBD in Lubbock reports that in all, 213 counties in Texas have lost at least 30 percent of their crops or pasture.

The disaster declaration will allow farmers and ranchers to qualify for emergency loans at lower interest rates.

"This is a disaster," Texas farmer Scott Harmon said. "This is a train wreck."


Driving around outside Corpus Christi, you can definitely tell the difference between those few farmers that have irrigation and those that don't. Driving back from Houston this weekend the dried sorghum leaves were blowing across the road like tumbleweeds. Was hoping Arlene would come in North of Tampico so we could get some rain. Haven't watered the lawn in over a week in hopes we could get some, but I guess it's time to jack up the water bill a little more.
Also there might be a recon tonight. Why? Because this morning they sent one out at around 5 or so, when there wasn't one scheduled.


Looks impressive on RGB.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Looks impressive on RGB.


Sure does, but you can easily see on that image that the west side of the "eyewall" isn't there.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


You flip between predictions like a fish.

hey i said it was weakining due becuase i saw a pic of arlene like 7 hours ago i made a mistake.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


We won't have recon until 12Z in the morning.
Ah, you're right. I should have checked the NHC's site I guess. :P
Quoting Skyepony:
A lightning strike at a primary school in western Uganda has killed 18 students and injured at least 50 others. Lightning hit Runyanya Primary School in Kiryandongo district, about 225 kilometres north-west of Kampala, killing 15 girls and three boys, police spokeswoman Judith Nabakooba said. "The injured were taken to hospital nearby and 15 of those who were seriously injured were transferred to Mulago hospital [in Kampala]," she said. Local media reported that a further 21 pupils were burned after lightning struck at a second school in Zombo district, around 380 kilometres north of Kampala. Police could not confirm the incident. Ms Nabakooba could not provide an exact figure for the total number killed by lightning in recent weeks, but local newspaper The Daily Monitor reported a total of 28 killed and scores injured in the past week, including Tuesday's incidents. Uganda is experiencing unseasonably heavy rainstorms and concern about the number of recent lightning strikes has prompted politicians to demand an official explanation from government.


We watch these tropical waves coming off Africa and we wonder what impact they will have on North America. It's worth thinking sometimes about what impact they've already had on Africa.
I doubt that they wont want a recon out there tonight, because its an intensifying tropical storm that could be a Hurricane at landfall towards a populated area (Tampico) - they'll want a plane in there.
Quoting MrstormX:
Oh well, if every storm were a hurricane that would get very boring very quick. I don't see much more intensification from Arlene due to her proximity to land, but also her overall lack of a consistent COC.
make every storm a hurricane well thats a tall order i will see what i can do
143. xcool
getting ready for pattern change next couple weeks thanks Arlene open doors now.
Quoting xcool:
getting ready for pattern change next couple weeks thanks Arlene open doors now.

Do you think the ridge will weaken next week that could allow tropical moisture into the US GULF COAST
Good evening all.
There was an article some time ago, quoting research being done on weather systems in East and Central Africa, particularly Lightening.
The research showed a link between High Lightening activity, and strong Tropical Waves. ???

Anyone remember this?
I cant find it....
146. srada
NWS in Wilmington, NC..

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT IN
THE VARIOUS LONG-RANGE MODELS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH REGARDS TO
THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A CUT-OFF (OR NEARLY SO) UPPER LOW NEAR
THE NC/VA COAST THIS WEEKEND. LAST NIGHT`S 00Z ECMWF WAS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING THIS FEATURE WHICH WOULD HAVE DRAMATIC
CONSEQUENCES FOR TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. THE 06 & 12Z GFS SHOWS THE
SAME FEATURE BUT KEEPS IT OUT NEAR 70 DEGREES W LONGITUDE...TOO FAR
EAST FOR ANY DIRECT CONSEQUENCES LOCALLY. OF MORE IMPORTANCE IS THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS JUST WEST OF THE
CAROLINAS. VIRTUALLY ALL THE MODELS SHOW THIS...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT TO THE AREA. MODELS EVEN SHOW A THERMAL LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY NEXT WEEK DUE TO SUSTAINED
HIGH TEMPERATURES.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


You flip between predictions like a fish.
handle + join date + posts = Something smells rotten in the State of Denmark.
Quoting TaylorSelseth:

Not for a country that is so religious that it came close to making homosexuality a capital offense. I wouldn't expect rational thought.


Well said.
Rainy with winds out of the NNW @ 23 mph in Tampico, MX.
Quoting pottery:
Good evening all.
There was an article some time ago, quoting research being done on weather systems in East and Central Africa, particularly Lightening.
The research showed a link between High Lightening activity, and strong Tropical Waves. ???

Anyone remember this?
I cant find it....


I remember the papers.. Lightning = intensification.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
handle + join date + posts = Something smells rotten in the State of Denmark.
no you are kidding really i would have never figured that one out thanks

Quoting Skyepony:


I remember the papers.. Lightning = intensification.

Thanks Skye.
Was it a Dr. Masters Blog that mentioned it?
I really dont recall, but would like to read it again in light of all the reported lightening strikes in Africa.

ICLP centre

Link
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
no you are kidding really i would have never figured that one out thanks



C'mon Keep, be nice.
Thanks for the warm welcome, everyone!

YES - I'm a Yellow Jackets fan, even though I didn't spend my undergrad there. It's hard to be a fan of anything but basketball at Valpo!

Jeff will be back tomorrow with a new post, but I'll be filling in for him when he takes time off this summer. I have big shoes to fill! :)
Quoting TomTaylor:
lol, you're bummed? I'm bummed! Sometimes I wonder if I type all this text for nothing since nobody can see it lol

pretty disappointing

I can see it.
06/29/2011 0625 PM
Wagner, Phillips County.
Hail e2.75 inch, reported by public.
Estimated baseball size hail knocking horses over.
Tornado on the ground headed to or around Glasgow, Montana.



Quoting pottery:

Thanks Skye.
Was it a Dr. Masters Blog that mentioned it?
I really dont recall, but would like to read it again in light of all the reported lightening strikes in Africa.
rapid firing thunderstorm activity is an indication that waves are strong as these waves venture out over water and keep the lightening could indicate a possible strong tropical system will dev into the waves future but i think we really need to do some more checking into that
Quoting bluenosedave:


We watch these tropical waves coming off Africa and we wonder what impact they will have on North America. It's worth thinking sometimes about what impact they've already had on Africa.


Not just Africa. I think this one that nailed Uraganda is partually that invest that turned landcane over India & did a bunch of damage. This piece here is trouble..
Quoting angelafritz:
Thanks for the warm welcome, everyone!

YES - I'm a Yellow Jackets fan, even though I didn't spend my undergrad there. It's hard to be a fan of anything but basketball at Valpo!

Jeff will be back tomorrow with a new post, but I'll be filling in for him when he takes time off this summer. I have big shoes to fill! :)


Welcome Angela, looks like you joined on my birthday, May 2. Awesome.
Quoting angelafritz:
Thanks for the warm welcome, everyone!

YES - I'm a Yellow Jackets fan, even though I didn't spend my undergrad there. It's hard to be a fan of anything but basketball at Valpo!

Jeff will be back tomorrow with a new post, but I'll be filling in for him when he takes time off this summer. I have big shoes to fill! :)


Your welcome
Quoting nopepper:


Driving around outside Corpus Christi, you can definitely tell the difference between those few farmers that have irrigation and those that don't. Driving back from Houston this weekend the dried sorghum leaves were blowing across the road like tumbleweeds. Was hoping Arlene would come in North of Tampico so we could get some rain. Haven't watered the lawn in over a week in hopes we could get some, but I guess it's time to jack up the water bill a little more.
Best thing to do is let it go dormant. All you are doing watering in this kind of drought is pulling the roots to the surface and making it more likely it gets killed by heat.
Quoting blsealevel:

ICLP centre

Link

Thanks much, for that.
I will need to read it more carefully this time....

see you guys tomorrow......
Quoting angelafritz:
Thanks for the warm welcome, everyone!

YES - I'm a Yellow Jackets fan, even though I didn't spend my undergrad there. It's hard to be a fan of anything but basketball at Valpo!

Jeff will be back tomorrow with a new post, but I'll be filling in for him when he takes time off this summer. I have big shoes to fill! :)


----------------------
Thanks for stoping by
...a great bunch here,
and never dull.

CRS
165. xcool
sorry i'm back
Quoting angelafritz:
Thanks for the warm welcome, everyone!

YES - I'm a Yellow Jackets fan, even though I didn't spend my undergrad there. It's hard to be a fan of anything but basketball at Valpo!

Jeff will be back tomorrow with a new post, but I'll be filling in for him when he takes time off this summer. I have big shoes to fill! :)


You're welcome!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
no you are kidding really i would have never figured that one out thanks

LoL yea, you folks up north are so trusting.
I think it's going to be difficult for Arlene to continue to strengthen past it's max winds already (60mph) because of her proximity to land.

Half of her structure is already impacting Mexico and it just seems to late for anything to ramp up to a hurricane, or a stronger tropical storm.

I'm not eating crow, it just seems as if it's too late.
Quoting angelafritz:
Thanks for the warm welcome, everyone!

YES - I'm a Yellow Jackets fan, even though I didn't spend my undergrad there. It's hard to be a fan of anything but basketball at Valpo!

Jeff will be back tomorrow with a new post, but I'll be filling in for him when he takes time off this summer. I have big shoes to fill! :)
don't worry you will do fine iam sure and again welcome to this place called weather underground
Quoting pottery:

Thanks Skye.
Was it a Dr. Masters Blog that mentioned it?
I really dont recall, but would like to read it again in light of all the reported lightening strikes in Africa.


I remember discussing it in Masters' blog when Katrina about struck me coming & intensifying across FL..

Here's a paper..
Quoting angelafritz:
Thanks for the warm welcome, everyone!

YES - I'm a Yellow Jackets fan, even though I didn't spend my undergrad there. It's hard to be a fan of anything but basketball at Valpo!

Jeff will be back tomorrow with a new post, but I'll be filling in for him when he takes time off this summer. I have big shoes to fill! :)

I am sure you have already heard, but it seems like every time the Doc takes off, crazy things happen. Welcome aboard
Quoting angelafritz:
Thanks for the warm welcome, everyone!

YES - I'm a Yellow Jackets fan, even though I didn't spend my undergrad there. It's hard to be a fan of anything but basketball at Valpo!

Jeff will be back tomorrow with a new post, but I'll be filling in for him when he takes time off this summer. I have big shoes to fill! :)


Welcome aboard :)

You'll have your hands full while Dr. Masters is on vacation, we usually get at least one named storm while he is gone.
Quoting Grothar:
are you getting some rain
Quoting Skyepony:


Not just Africa. I think this one that nailed Uraganda is partually that invest that turned landcane over India & did a bunch of damage. This piece here is trouble..


Oi! Something wicked this way comes.
Quoting Hurricanes12:
I think it's going to be difficult for Arlene to continue to strengthen past it's max winds already (60mph) because of her proximity to land.

Half of her structure is already impacting Mexico and it just seems to late for anything to ramp up to a hurricane, or a stronger tropical storm.

I'm not eating crow, it just seems as if it's too late.


Typically, when systems are making landfall in an area like this, the coast seems to ramp the system up, like Alex of last year. Went from strong Category 1 to strong Category 2 right before landfall.
Quoting Hurricanes12:
I think it's going to be difficult for Arlene to continue to strengthen past it's max winds already (60mph) because of her proximity to land.

Half of her structure is already impacting Mexico and it just seems to late for anything to ramp up to a hurricane, or a stronger tropical storm.

I'm not eating crow, it just seems as if it's too late.


Keep the faith. Arlene senses that she is running out of time, and has slowed down. Cat 1 on next advisory, and dont be shocked by a rapid ramp up to 90 mph.
Welcome Angela. Thank you for the update.
Quoting bluenosedave:


Oi! Something wicked this way comes.
You need to wear thimbles if you can't sew any better than that.
Seems a little stronger than 60 mph at this time. Maybe 65 mph? Still has to work on some things before it can become a hurricane, but it still has a good 8-12 hours before landfall.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
are you getting some rain


Not a drop.
say 65 to 75 peak intensity
Quoting Grothar:


Not a drop.
Raining in Ft Myers.
Q: How strong will Arlene be at the 11PM full advisory?

A. 60 mph

B. 65 mph
C. 70 mph
D. 75 mph
E. Higher or lower than listed

Italicized: Possible
Bold: More likely

That's my choice.
Quoting donna1960ruled:


Keep the faith. Arlene senses that she is running out of time, and has slowed down. Cat 1 on next advisory, and dont be shocked by a rapid ramp up to 90 mph.


Do you see something I'm not seeing? I think Arlene will be close to a hurricane at landfall, but not 90 mph.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: How strong will Arlene be at the 11PM full advisory?

A. 60 mph
B. 65 mph
C. 70 mph
D. 75 mph
E. Higher or lower than listed
Italicized: Possible
Bold: More likely
That's my choice.


I think Arlene will peak at 70 mph.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: How strong will Arlene be at the 11PM full advisory?

A. 60 mph

B. 65 mph
C. 70 mph
D. 75 mph
E. Higher or lower than listed

Italicized: Possible
Bold: More likely

That's my choice.

B
C
im going with b
Quoting twincomanche:
Raining in Ft Myers.


Hey, Is Grandma's Kitchen, off exit 24 still there?
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
You need to wear thimbles if you can't sew any better than that.


By the way, where's that shipment of eye of newt you promised me?
She looks a littled peaked. (Is that the right word?)


With no Recon inside of Arlene it would be hard to believe that they increase the intensity. Pretty weird that there are no scheduled missions into the system until late tomorrow morning.

Come to the think of it, they might increase the intensity due to the increase in organization on satellite since Recon left.
Quoting Grothar:


Not a drop.


Never lucky with rain, are you Groth?

We got a nice storm earlier.
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, Is Grandma's Kitchen, off exit 24 still there?
Never been there.
Quoting Grothar:
She looks a littled peaked. (Is that the right word?)




Not when using it in a sentence like that, no.
With no recon available for this update, they will probably go off satellite appearance and t-numbers.

What are the numbers at the time?
Quoting Grothar:
She looks a littled peaked. (Is that the right word?)


Whats Up Gro?
Still looks like an elongated COC. Will she tighten up closer to land, or run out of time?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: How strong will Arlene be at the 11PM full advisory?

A. 60 mph

B. 65 mph
C. 70 mph
D. 75 mph
E. Higher or lower than listed

Italicized: Possible
Bold: More likely

That's my choice.


E or Even.....F Arlene is the bomb. We are doooooomed!!


Vorticity with the wave at 51/52W looking pretty good.
Quoting caneswatch:


Never lucky with rain, are you Groth?

We got a nice storm earlier.


Just lightning and gray. No rain.
Quoting bluenosedave:


By the way, where's that shipment of eye of newt you promised me?
They declared it an endangered species and dumped out all my traps.Link
Quoting elninosucks:
never mind i was wrong looks more of rapid intensification now..
lol
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: How strong will Arlene be at the 11PM full advisory?

A. 60 mph

B. 65 mph
C. 70 mph
D. 75 mph
E. Higher or lower than listed

Italicized: Possible
Bold: More likely

That's my choice.


I still say 60 MPH. I am more concerned with the fact that she has slowed down 4 MPH over the last few hours. The last few updates have resulted in the forward speed being slower than the run before it.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
With no recon available for this update, they will probably go off satellite appearance and t-numbers.

What are the numbers at the time?



UW - CIMSS


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 986.9mb/ 61.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.8 3.6 3.6

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Not when using it in a sentence like that, no.


Thanks, when I get tired, I forget my English sometimes.
Quoting Grothar:


Just lightning and gray. No rain.
Yu need to live over on the left coast.
NEARING LANDFALL
01L/TS/A/CX
MARK
21.95N/96.06W
Quoting Grothar:


Thanks, when I get tired, I forget my English sometimes.


peaked was correct...

peaked2 (pkd)
adj.
Having a sickly appearance: You're looking a little peaked today.


http://www.thefreedictionary.com/_/dict.aspx?word =peaked
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
With no recon available for this update, they will probably go off satellite appearance and t-numbers.

What are the numbers at the time?


ADT is at 3.8.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


peaked was correct...

peak·ed 2  (pkd)
adj.
Having a sickly appearance: You're looking a little peaked today.


I interpreted it wrong, oops.
lol.
Quoting Grothar:


Thanks, when I get tired, I forget my English sometimes.


would that be the old southern slang word for puny looking.....peaked? cant be peeked..hummm...pekid, nah...lol...just dont know ~~~
Quoting twincomanche:
Yu need to live over on the left coast.


Too hot over there. We like our little corner of the world here.


Quoting CybrTeddy:


ADT is at 3.8.
SAB is T3.0 and TAFB is T3.5.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


ADT is at 3.8.

Quoting Stormchaser2007:



UW - CIMSS


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 986.9mb/ 61.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.8 3.6 3.6



Looks similar to TS Dennis at 4.0

Quoting Grothar:


Too hot over there. We like our little corner of the world here.


Copy
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


peaked was correct...

peak�ed�2 �(pkd)
adj.
Having a sickly appearance: You're looking a little peaked today.


http://www.thefreedictionary.com/_/dict.aspx?word =peaked


Gee, thanks Caicos. I needed a lift tonight.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


would that be the old southern slang word for puny looking.....peaked? cant be peeked..hummm...pekid, nah...lol...just dont know ~~~


You have to teach me more words, EYES!
I'd hold at 60 mph, or increase slightly, to 65 mph.

Quoting Skyepony:
A lightning strike at a primary school in western Uganda has killed 18 students and injured at least 50 others. Lightning hit Runyanya Primary School in Kiryandongo district, about 225 kilometres north-west of Kampala, killing 15 girls and three boys, police spokeswoman Judith Nabakooba said. "The injured were taken to hospital nearby and 15 of those who were seriously injured were transferred to Mulago hospital [in Kampala]," she said. Local media reported that a further 21 pupils were burned after lightning struck at a second school in Zombo district, around 380 kilometres north of Kampala. Police could not confirm the incident. Ms Nabakooba could not provide an exact figure for the total number killed by lightning in recent weeks, but local newspaper The Daily Monitor reported a total of 28 killed and scores injured in the past week, including Tuesday's incidents. Uganda is experiencing unseasonably heavy rainstorms and concern about the number of recent lightning strikes has prompted politicians to demand an official explanation from government.
very sad.

I wonder if that is all that unusual over there, though. That region is known for being the thunderstorm capital of the world, having more thunderstorms form/thunderstorm days and having the highest concentration of lightning strikes per year than anywhere else in the world.
Quoting Grothar:


Just lightning and gray. No rain.


More false hope, but no worries. There's more rain coming tomorrow.
Lets Vote if arlene becomes a hurricane
A: Yes
b: no
Im going with B no
A little blow-up on the SE but the rest is a little ragged.

Quoting Grothar:


Gee, thanks Caicos. I needed a lift tonight.


If I do recall....you said Tampico on Thursday,right ?.....looking that way :)
interesting look to the radar over south fl,line going due south on westcoast and storms going north on the east side???theirs a bit of vort that was over north fl i suppose it slipped south???
Quoting elninosucks:
Lets Vote if arlene becomes a hurricane
A: Yes
b: no
Im going with B no


C. maybe
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
NEARING LANDFALL
01L/TS/A/CX
MARK
21.95N/96.06W


Dang, that rain needs to spin up to the NW part.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:


Vorticity with the wave at 51/52W looking pretty good.

yes I know we need to watch it

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 51W/52W S OF 15N
MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE
SURGE
AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE
IS WELL DEFINE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SATELLITE WINDS INDICATING A BROAD CURVATURE.
WAVE IS BENEATH AN
UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WAVE.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'd hold at 60 mph, or increase slightly, to 65 mph.

convection looks like it's waned a little, but spiral banding looks to have improved
xx/xx/xx
9n/38w
Quoting Grothar:


Too hot over there. We like our little corner of the world here.




Uhgg, you don't need a storm surge in there.
the surface circulation has now stacked back onto the mid level circulation, anyone notice the big jump back to the NE in the 5A advisory to the 5th advisory
5:
21.1 North ; 96.1 West

5A:
21.4 North ; 95.8 West
I DO SEE A SPIN!! with the wave at 51/52W looking pretty good.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


If I do recall....you said Tampico on Thursday,right ?.....looking that way :)


Actually, both Levi & I said it. I wrote it would hit the area as a strong tropical storm after the 27th or 28th. I think it was posted on the 21st or 22nd. Thanks for remembering, EYES. You are a nice lady. Levi had it in one of his early videos.
Quoting skkippboo:


Uhgg, you don't need a storm surge in there.


There are only two bloggers on here right now who know which home it is. And they won't say, will they?????
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:

what part you don't get in the TWD there is no wave near that area there is only one near 51/52W and one in the Carib
xx/xx/xx
12n/54w
Quoting Grothar:


Actually, both Levi & I said it. I wrote it would hit the area as a strong tropical storm after the 27th or 28th. I think it was posted on the 21st or 22nd. Thanks for remembering, EYES. You are a nice lady. Levi had it in one of his early videos.


I stated on my Facebook that I expected a landfall near Tampico but was leaning more on a landfall just north of Tampico. I also stated that I was forecasting a 60 MPH storm but didn't think it would get any stronger. That is why I still believe the storm will get no greater than 60 MPH. Now that is if it comes ashore but if it were to stall or swerve at the last minute than the entire forecast is out the window.
The Los Alamos National Laboratory in the New Mexico

"We feel very comfortable that material is secure,"

Link
Quoting wolftribe2009:


I stated on my Facebook that I expected a landfall near Tampico but was leaning more on a landfall just north of Tampico. I also stated that I was forecasting a 60 MPH storm but didn't think it would get any stronger. That is why I still believe the storm will get no greater than 60 MPH. Now that is if it comes ashore but if it were to stall or swerve at the last minute than the entire forecast is out the window.
I stated to my dog that it would land just south of tampico on Thursday morning as a strong TS/low end cat 1
Quoting Grothar:


There are only two bloggers on here right now who know which home it is. And they won't say, will they?????


I have no idea which house, but I can tell you that none of them need a storm surge.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


C. maybe


Cat 2
Quoting wolftribe2009:


I stated on my Facebook that I expected a landfall near Tampico but was leaning more on a landfall just north of Tampico. I also stated that I was forecasting a 60 MPH storm but didn't think it would get any stronger. That is why I still believe the storm will get no greater than 60 MPH. Now that is if it comes ashore but if it were to stall or swerve at the last minute than the entire forecast is out the window.


Yes, I remember you writing that the other night and that is what you said. At this point, I do not think it will swerve, though. The ridge to the North is very strong.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
1000 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2011

...ARLENE APPROACHING THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 96.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ENE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
Quoting donna1960ruled:
Cat 2

You are crazy.
Quoting skkippboo:


I have no idea which house, but I can tell you that none of them need a storm surge.


Why do you think I watch the tropics so closely on this blog?
and the truth spills out. NHC back to thinking 70 mph. 60 mph still.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
1000 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2011

...ARLENE APPROACHING THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 96.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ENE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


Thanks for the update, 09. Hope you didn't break your F5 key.
will that about dos it for this storm looks like its makeing land falll in the same spot has last year storm?
Quoting donna1960ruled:


Cat 2
not this one we are almost done with it got about 2 or 3 hrs to go before before landfall sometime early thursday morning before sunrise
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, I remember you writing that the other night and that is what you said. At this point, I do not think it will swerve, though. The ridge to the North is very strong.


Yeah it has picked up some speed and is now moving at 6 MPH again. I think that landfall is tomorrow night around 8 PM from what I last saw. That would give us almost 24 hours to watch and see what happens.
Quoting Grothar:


Thanks for the update, 09. Hope you didn't break your F5 key.
On a Mac you have to use two keys (Command+R)...it sucks lol. I just got on the NHC page and it was there so it was convenient lol. What's up Gro?
Grother. I DID, think i fried NHC's server
000
WTNT41 KNHC 300240
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
1000 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2011

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 64 KT ON ITS FIRST PASS THROUGH ARLENE WHICH EQUATES TO
ABOUT 50 KT SURFACE WINDS AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 996 MB.
SEVERAL SFMR WIND MEASUREMENTS CLOSE TO 50 KT WERE ALSO RECORDED ON
THAT PASS AND THE SUBSEQUENT ONE AROUND 2300 UTC. EARLIER
MICROWAVE PASSES REVEALED A PROMINENT BAND OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE BUT A LACK OF ANY DISTINGUISHING CENTRAL FEATURES. THE
LATTER MATCHES WHAT THE PLANE ALSO FOUND...A LARGE REGION OF LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. ON THE BASIS OF THE PLANE
REPORTS AND 0000 UTC TAFB/SAB SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS OF
3.5/3.0...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT. ALTHOUGH THE
WINDS ALOFT ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE AND THE WATERS UNDERNEATH THE
CYCLONE ARE VERY WARM...THE CURRENT STORM STRUCTURE DOES NOT SEEM
SUITABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. BESIDES...THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING IS DECREASING NOW THAT LANDFALL SEEMS
IMMINENT. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE
STATISTICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND INDICATES ARLENE REACHING A
PEAK INTENSITY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IMMEDIATELY BEFORE LANDFALL.

THE SEQUENCE OF AIRCRAFT FIXES FROM THE MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON
FLIGHTS YIELDED LITTLE OVERALL MOTION...BUT RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THAT ARLENE MAY HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE SLIGHTLY FASTER. A
STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD INDUCE A GENERALLY WESTWARD
TRACK TO NEAR LANDFALL. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS
POSSIBLE AFTER THAT AS THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE CHANGES AND AS
THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH LAND. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO BUT A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO EARLIER
DECELERATION.

AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS HAVE EXPANDED
SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
MODIFIED ACCORDINGLY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 21.5N 96.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 21.5N 97.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 21.3N 98.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 01/1200Z 20.7N 99.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 02/0000Z 20.5N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN
LANDFALL SOON!
wolftribe09, landfall is tomorrow morning, i little less than 12 hours left.
Ya think it could get any hotter or drier here on the eastern Mississippi Gulf Coast? The water is hot, hot hot and so is the temp. Need some rain here bad...
Radiation in urine found in residents near Fukushima

Japan's Fukushima nuclear disaster has taken another bad turn as residents located about 20 miles from the Daiichi nuclear facility now have radiation detected in their urine and one official said it will be "difficult" for people to live in the area.

Around 15 residents in the village of Iitate and in the town of Kawamata, located about 20 miles from the site of the Daiichi nuclear meltdown,, were found to be passing radiation in their urine, with some experts saying there “won’t be a problem” if vegetables are not consumed.

More than 3 millisieverts of radiation was discovered in the residents, it was confirmed this week. Levels of radioactive iodine as high as 3.2 millisieverts were found in six people, with total exposure levels over two months since radiation leaks began measuring between 4.9 and 14.2 millisieverts.

International Business Times (IBT) notes these levels are much higher than estimated 20 millisieverts annual radiation exposure.

Nanao Kamada, a professor of radiation biology at Hiroshima University, said: “This won't be a problem if they don't eat vegetables or other products that are contaminated,” IBT reports. “But it will be difficult for people to continue living in these areas.” he added.

Digital Journal Article...

Meanwhile, there was a 5.5 quake in central Japan a few hours ago that has injured at least seven.




Arlene is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 10.2 to 20.3 centimetres in the Mexican states of Tamaulipas, Veracruz and eastern San Luis Potosi, with possible accumulation of about 38 cm over mountainous terrain.

These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, the hurricane centre warns.

CBC meteorologist Johanna Wagstaffe says some downpours will reach into south Texas, with the potential for flash and urban flooding but also the hope of beneficial rainfall.

Link


Willkommen, Fraulein Fritz

I have been working at ATT in ATL this past
week, staying right across the street from your
Alma Mater. Very nice campus. Marble slab ice cream
is great.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
On a Mac you have to use two keys (Command+R)...it sucks lol. I just got on the NHC page and it was there so it was convenient lol. What's up Gro?


You need to upgrade. Where are our globes?
I hear a Tropical Wave may increase our moisture here in Florida next week! The rain we had yesterday was sure nice! I think Sarasota Bradenton Airport's rain gage is broken! They said we picked .37 yesterday and I know we got more!
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Grother. I DID, think i fried NHC's server


LOL. Hey, we need those guys.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
wolftribe09, landfall is tomorrow morning, i little less than 12 hours left.


According to NOAA's 10 PM, the storm is about 120 miles from the coast. Moving at 6 MPH it would take 20 hours to reach landfall. That would be around 6-8 PM
Yeah, but its okay if their server is fried now, becuase we won't need them again until 2 am. lol
quoting: wolftribe09
Stated in the NHC's discussion on Arlene states:
THE SEQUENCE OF AIRCRAFT FIXES FROM THE MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON
FLIGHTS YIELDED LITTLE OVERALL MOTION...BUT RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THAT ARLENE MAY HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE SLIGHTLY FASTER.
A
STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD INDUCE A GENERALLY WESTWARD
Quoting Grothar:


Why do you think I watch the tropics so closely on this blog?


A. You live on the coast.

B. You have the same sick fascination the rest of us do with these things that are both beautiful and deadly.

I see that you, like me, are in the "All of the above" category.
Quoting nopepper:


A. You live on the coast.

B. You have the same sick fascination the rest of us do with these things that are both beautiful and deadly.

I see that you, like me, are in the "All of the above" category.

You might as well add me to that list as well.....
The "All of th Above" List :o)

Taco :o)
Taco? :o)
lol
the remnants from the low supposed to be left in the BOC and help the next tropical wave get going and possibly form. as well as the MJO assissting
LIFT OFF!
Good night everyone. Check back in the morning to see 60 MPH Arlene? 65 MPH Arlene? 70 MPH Arlene? Hurricane Arlene?
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Taco? :o)
lol
the remnants from the low supposed to be left in the BOC and help the next tropical wave get going and possibly form. as well as the MJO assissting
Yea I see that happening but I sure hope it will bring some "Good Rain" up here on the North Gulf Coast.... Now I donot want a Hurricane but I would take some good Tropical Rain though....


Taco :o)
Good Evening.....Irrespective of whether Arlene makes Hurricane status before landfall or not, I am amazed at the huge size of this storm...It would have really alleiviated short-term drought issues in the "entire" region of Texas if landfall had been further North, or, in any Southern State for that matter.....One huge system for sure that may not have had time to consolidate because of it's size........Flooding in Mexico will be great but they also dodged a huge bullet had she had time to consolidate and intensify.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
quoting: wolftribe09
Stated in the NHC's discussion on Arlene states:
THE SEQUENCE OF AIRCRAFT FIXES FROM THE MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON
FLIGHTS YIELDED LITTLE OVERALL MOTION...BUT RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THAT ARLENE MAY HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE SLIGHTLY FASTER.
A
STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD INDUCE A GENERALLY WESTWARD


True it is now moving faster. Yet if the storm is 90 miles out and traveling at 6 MPH then how is it early mourning? That is 15 hours from 10 PM which would come out to 1 PM

Are they talking about the center or the west edge of the storm?
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Evening.....Irrespective of whether Arlene makes Hurricane status before landfall or not, I am amazed at the huge size of this storm...It would have really alleiviated short-term drought issues in the "entire" region of Texas if landfall had been further North, or, in any Southern State for that matter.....One huge system for sure that may not have had time to consolidate because of it's size........Flooding in Mexico will be great but they also dodged a huge bullet had she had time to consolidate and intensify.


Agree 100% with that.
Quoting Skyepony:
Launch in ~ 1 min.
What was being launched?

I can't watch the livestream because I'm in my phone
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Agree 100% with that.


The storm remnants look to be headed towards Mexico City which will be a huge life-threatening flood threat for poorer residents in the valleys and hill-tops surrrounding the Capital.....We will probably see lives lost as a result......The slower she goes the worse for Mexico.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
quoting: wolftribe09
Stated in the NHC's discussion on Arlene states:
THE SEQUENCE OF AIRCRAFT FIXES FROM THE MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON
FLIGHTS YIELDED LITTLE OVERALL MOTION...BUT RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THAT ARLENE MAY HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE SLIGHTLY FASTER.
A
STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD INDUCE A GENERALLY WESTWARD


Well, on second thought. If NOAA thinks the storm is going to speed up than it would be tomorrow mourning. If it stayed at 6 MPH then wouldn't that make it 1-2 PM? That was why I was confused on it. I have a problem believing the storm is gonna speed up anymore though; especially with it being so close to land.
Quoting wolftribe2009:


Yeah it has picked up some speed and is now moving at 6 MPH again. I think that landfall is tomorrow night around 8 PM from what I last saw. That would give us almost 24 hours to watch and see what happens.
8 pm tomorrow night i don't think so this thing is less than 6 hrs away from landfall maybe somewhere near 2 am or just after
NEARING LANDFALL
01L/TS/A/CX
MARK
21.95N/96.16W
NEARING LANDFALL
01L/TS/A/CX
MARK
21.95N/96.86W
Quoting TomTaylor:
What was being launched?

I can't watch the livestream because I'm in my phone


Something for the Air Force. It was in VA. Had it been at KSC or a new weather toy I'd have known.

Awesome night launch..looked like a shooting exploding star.
Quoting sunlinepr:


Arlene's upper-level anti-cyclone is HUGE!
Quoting Skyepony:


Something for the Air Force. It was in VA. Had it been at KSC or a new weather toy I'd have known.

Awesome night launch..looked like a shooting exploding star.

It was incredible. Fortunately throughout my life, I was lucky enough to be able to witness several launches--a truly spectacular sight.

Shortly after helping out in the aftermath of Hurricane Andrew, I made the trip up to view the shuttle Discovery that December. That might have been nearly 20 years ago, but it is something you will never forget...
Last minute intensification before landfall? TF1/JSL
I remember Tropical Storm Arlene in June 2005! It hit the Florida Panhandle as a 70 mph Tropical Storm! We here in Sarasota, Florida got a lot of rain!
Quoting CatfishJones:
Last minute intensification before landfall? TF1/JSL

Most likely not. It's just cycling itself out with renewed convection bursts that will flare up and die out.
Little bit of vindication.

ALTHOUGH THE
WINDS ALOFT ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE AND THE WATERS UNDERNEATH THE
CYCLONE ARE VERY WARM...THE CURRENT STORM STRUCTURE DOES NOT SEEM
SUITABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.
FINAL APPROACH
01L/TS/A/CX
MARK
21.81N/96.86W
MOVEMENT SOUTHWEST
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Little bit of vindication.

ALTHOUGH THE
WINDS ALOFT ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE AND THE WATERS UNDERNEATH THE
CYCLONE ARE VERY WARM...THE CURRENT STORM STRUCTURE DOES NOT SEEM
SUITABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.
what happened to your other login - CyclonicVoyage?
Look how strong the convection is over the Yucatan towards the end of this loop.


Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Evening.....Irrespective of whether Arlene makes Hurricane status before landfall or not, I am amazed at the huge size of this storm...It would have really alleiviated short-term drought issues in the "entire" region of Texas if landfall had been further North, or, in any Southern State for that matter.....One huge system for sure that may not have had time to consolidate because of it's size........Flooding in Mexico will be great but they also dodged a huge bullet had she had time to consolidate and intensify.
how true, Arlene will provide much needed rain to Mexico. Yes, there will be flooding in some areas, but a lot of areas will recieve greatly needed rain, seems like 75% of mexico will get rain from Arlene.
Quoting capelookout:
what happened to your other login - CyclonicVoyage?



I still have it. I was cleaning out some really old paperwork couple weeks ago and found the log in info for this name, thought I would see if it was still active. Surprised it was.
This was my first handle at WU, back in my hardcore DJ days, lol, shortly after I moved to FL from South Bend, IN.
well looks like our first landfalling tropical storm of the season is very near we are now at day 30 of the 2011 hurricane season we have 152 days to
Still a very odd looking storm, very linear tonight.

Sucking in some dry air too.
Quoting IceCoast:
Look how strong the convection is over the Yucatan towards the end of this loop.




active strikes white

Good night Arlene, and good bye.
You've been a pretty cyclone since we first saw you.
Now, it's time to say hasta-lavista as you slide into Mexico.
Be gentle.
.
.
.
315. Tygor
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Sucking in some dry air too.


Texas drought is so bad it's able to kill tropical storms in a single bound :)
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


peaked was correct...

peak�ed�2 �(pkd)
adj.
Having a sickly appearance: You're looking a little peaked today.


http://www.thefreedictionary.com/_/dict.aspx?word =peaked
Was just about to reply to that... amazing how people get peaked, peeked, and piqued confused so regularly.... unusual set of homonyms, IMO.

To wit: Despite the fact that I was feeling a bit peaked this evening, I nevertheless peeked into the blog for a few moments, piqued by the question of whether Arlene had peaked in intensity.

:o)

Quoting KoritheMan:

I don't think Texas is going to get significant rains from Arlene. Maybe an inch or two across deep south Texas.

hey I think I'll get more then your saying gut feeling of mine ;)
318. skook
Looks like the 2am edt prediction wasn't too far off.
next batch of rainbands coming from the ese
Quoting BahaHurican:
Was just about to reply to that... amazing how people get peaked, peeked, and piqued confused so regularly.... unusual set of homonyms, IMO.

To wit: Despite the fact that I was feeling a bit peaked this evening, I nevertheless peeked into the blog for a few moments, piqued by the question of whether Arlene had peaked in intensity.

:o)



Seems some need to get a life and not worry about and stop pecking on people.......picking on people....or is it piquing on people......oh well!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


active strikes white



No surprise there. Lines up perfectly with that band.
Quoting taco2me61:

You might as well add me to that list as well.....
The "All of th Above" List :o)

Taco :o)
Im on the same list.
Quoting Skyepony:


Something for the Air Force. It was in VA. Had it been at KSC or a new weather toy I'd have known.

Awesome night launch..looked like a shooting exploding star.
I was hoping it was a weather toy. oh well, glad it was a successful latch
Well, I think Arlene was a good first tropical cyclone. Lots of good info, lots of wishcasting,wrong forecasts,correct forecasts, we got it all with the first storm of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane season. I enjoy this blog a lot and look forward to many more nights and days of all of your input. Thank You All
Pretty good swirl just south of Haiti but no thunderstorm activity to go with the wave. Can anyone tell me if there is a tropical wave here? I could have sworn there was.

Link
Should have landfall within the next three hours.

Does not appear Arlene will make Hurricane status.
Landfall appears to be imminent. IR shows this quite nicely. Arlene has sure picked up the pace from not to long ago.


Aww right before me cybrteddy!
Quoting wolftribe2009:
Pretty good swirl just south of Haiti but no thunderstorm activity to go with the wave. Can anyone tell me if there is a tropical wave here? I could have sworn there was.

Link
That's due to an upper level trough which can be observed on the satellite derived upper level winds




according to the NHC surface analysis from the hours ago there is also a tropical wave in the area



the tropical wave is pretty weak, however, since it has no convection due to poor upper level conditions brought on by the upper level trough which are now causing very high shear levels and confluence aloft. This is also noted by the very weak 850 mb vorticity signature and tpw signature. The tropical wave around 53W is looking much better as it already has what looks to be a ridge in the upper levels, which is ventilating the system and keeping wind shear to a minimum. Also has a lot of moisture, convection, and vorticity with it, which are all signs of a strong, healthy wave.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Well, I think Arlene was a good first tropical cyclone. Lots of good info, lots of wishcasting,wrong forecasts,correct forecasts, we got it all with the first storm of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane season. I enjoy this blog a lot and look forward to many more nights and days of all of your input. Thank You All


Yea, Arlene was a good first. Just like last year it was a massive, monsoonal low that was our first named storm that plowed into the Yucatan and then Mexico. Seems repetitive that we're doing this dance again, albeit not as strong as Alex. I still have a nasty feeling in my stomach, maybe even stronger than ever now about this season.

So much for no named storms in June.. cranked out one in the very last week.
Structure seems to have improved, wonder if we will see an increase in intensity from NHC.

Looks like Arlene won't make hurricane status. Her inner core was never well established from the get go. She just needed more time over water and a little better conditions could of helped as well. Congrats to the GFS for sniffing this one out way in advance. The ECMWF has had to play catch up.
Nope, guess not.

000
WTNT31 KNHC 300550
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
100 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2011

...ARLENE NEARING THE COAST OF MEXICO WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 97.0W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA NORTHWARD TO LA
CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA CRUZ NORTHWARD TO LA PESCA MEXICO
* PALMA SOLA SOUTHWARD TO VERACRUZ MEXICO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD ALREADY HAVE BEEN
COMPLETED.
GFS have anything popping up elsewhere in the next 2 weeks?
Quoting robert88:
Looks like Arlene won't make hurricane status. Her inner core was never well established from the get go. She just needed more time over water and a little better conditions could of helped as well. Congrats to the GFS for sniffing this one out way in advance. The ECMWF has had to play catch up.


Um the ECMWF nailed the central pressure. GFS had it waaaaay too weak.

Edit: I guess you meant in terms of long-term forecast. In that respect, the GFS did see it earlier.
Looks like the NHC had the forecast intensity correct for landfall initially. A broad core that didn't have time to wind up was to blame for keeping Arlene away from hurricane status. Mexico is a little bit lucky, but this storm will still cause plenty of problems.

*** Welcome Angela! ***
ASCAT finally got a decent pass. This was Arlene at 0300z or about 3 hours ago.

Quoting Levi32:


Um the ECMWF nailed the central pressure. GFS had it waaaaay too weak.

Edit: I guess you meant in terms of long-term forecast. In that respect, the GFS did see it earlier.


Yeah I meant long-term. The GFS still has some kinks...but imo it sniffs out development better than any other model. It did a great job last season...especially the 2nd half. It is only going to get better with the upgrades.
Quoting MonkeyMan504:
GFS have anything popping up elsewhere in the next 2 weeks?
It doesn't develop any storms in the next two weeks, but it has been consistently hinting (just about all the runs for the last day or so) at something coming out of the Caribbean and into the Gulf of Mexico in a little over a week, and also something developing off of Florida (not a trough split) in a little over a week as well.

0z GFS 180hrs



0z GFS 228 hrs



0z ECMWF from yesterday also a little something coming out of the Caribbean and entering the Gulf of Mexico. But it too did not develop an actual storm.

It's a long ways out, but the MJO will be in our region and upper level conditions do look like they will become favorable over the Caribbean as an upper level anticyclone moves into the area from the East, so we will have to keep our eyes on it. There is also a nice looking wave just west of 50W. Lots of convection, moisture, good vorticity, and minimal shear and good divergence aloft thanks to some weak ridging aloft (this is the upper level anticyclone that will be moving west and into the Caribbean).
close up of the ascat pass on Arlene. Pass was at 0312z, or a little over 3 hours ago. I don't see any wind barbs indicating winds over 40 knots. Granite, this pass doesn't show the whole storm, but NHC definitely made the right call in not upgrading this to hurricane status. Highest winds on this pass are ~40 knots, which is a good 20 knots away from hurricane wind speeds.




343. tessa
I sure had hoped that Arlene would turn toward Texas. We need rain bad here. Been way too many fires. We could use a good 2 or 3 day soaking. Well, maybe next time....if the High Pressure would go away!!!
Well Arlene sure gave us a nice run for the first storm of the year. In early June it looked quite likely that we would get a June storm, despite it being climatologically unfavorable, since the MJO was forecasted to be in our area of the world. By mid June, however, this began to look increasingly unlikely. To my surprise, however, we did manage to pull off a June storm and kick off our season ahead of the climatological average.

Looking back a few days ago, I never thought Arlene would intensify as much as she did. Improving upper level conditions as a result of upper level anticyclone moving overhead certainly helped the storm intensify, but I think another big reason why Arlene strengthened as much as she did was the location she was in. As Levi explained, and Dr. Masters mentioned, the BOC's shape favors storm intensification due to the forced convergence provided by the frictional force of the surrounding land which slows down the winds overland which in turn reduces the Coriolis effect (since it is directly proportional to wind speeds). When the coriolis force is reduced, it means there is less force pushing out on the winds (this force deflects winds, which causes winds to spin clockwise around a high pressure and counter clockwise around a low pressure system in the northern hemisphere, rather than flowing in a straight line toward the area of higher or lower pressure), which allows winds to move more directly down pressure gradients since the pressure gradient force becomes more dominant. When winds flow more directly down their pressure gradient, surface convergence is increased, thus creating an effect known as "forced convergence". Of course, the upper level anticyclone moving overhead to reduce shear and increase divergence aloft, as well as the warm SSTs, moist environment, the weak upward phase of the MJO in the basin, and the extra vorticity from a tropical wave all played their respective roles in allowing Arlene to intensify. However, given the minimal amount of time this system had, the large, broad monsoonal nature of the storm, and decent, but certainly not exceptional, upper level conditions, I think had Arlene formed in a different location under the same conditions and time allotment, she would not have intensified nearly as much.

Anyway, enough speculation, Arlene should be coming ashore within the next several hours. Although the mid and low level circulations have become more aligned allowing the storm to become more virtically stacked and convection is firing once again, she lacks a solid inner core and convection around the storm is nowhere near symmetrical. Instead, convection is completely lopsided with the most intense convection on the eastern side. She will probably try to pull in this convection and throw it more evenly around the center of the storm and convection should continue to fire as we reach dmax, but time is running out and already about 40% of the storm is overland. So, Arlene has likely already reached her peak intensity, although slight intensification may occur since the dmax is still to come and the convection will be pulling in around the center.



As far as the effects of this storm, wind and storm surge shouldn't be too much of a problem with Arlene, since she is only a moderate to strong tropical storm. Nonetheless, this storm will likely produce widespread flooding, landslides, and local flash flooding. Fortunately, however, Mexico is suffering from one of its worst droughts in its history, so this should be a big time drought buster for much of Central Mexico. South Texas should also get a decent amount of rain from this storm too as bands of thunderstorms will reach the area. However, don't expect the dissipating/remnant storm to drift north into texas and then rain or provide moisture for Texas or any other regions of southern United States. instead, Arlene will be steered by the ridge straight across Central Mexico where it should die quickly due to the mountainous terrain. Once again, in the process, it will bring a lot of moisture with it, which means lots of rain and also enhanced monsoonal flow for the few days after the storm is dead.

Latest 5 day QPF






Well, I'm out for tonight. Stay safe if you live in Central Mexico or South Texas!
The blog goes "poof"
Looks like Arlene is making landfall. She tried to make a run at cane status...but her core was quite wimpy.
347. Ylee
Not quite....Noticing Arlene is speeding up, and the NHC is still forecasting some last minute strengthening before landfall, which should be happening at any moment.
She is starting her weakening trend now ...cloud tops are warming
...ARLENE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR CABO ROJO MEXICO... ------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

4:00 AM CDT Thu Jun 30
Location: 21.5°N 97.3°W
Max sustained: 65 mph
Moving: W at 9 mph
Min pressure: 996 mb


000
WTNT41 KNHC 300848
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
400 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF ARLENE
IS MAKING LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR CABO ROJO. WHILE
ASCAT DATA SHOWED WINDS NO HIGHER THAN ABOUT 40 KT AROUND 0312
UTC...BANDING HAS INCREASED NOTABLY SINCE THAT TIME IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE BOTH 55 KT AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO THAT
VALUE. THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING WELL NORTH OF THE CENTER IN
THE STRONG BANDING FEATURES. WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS THE CENTER MOVES INLAND. A RAPID DECAY IS LIKELY LATER
TODAY AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF MEXICO.

ARLENE ACCELERATED AS IT APPROACHED THE COAST OVERNIGHT...AND IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT. MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER WILL MOVE A LITTLE SLOWER AND DECOUPLE FROM THE
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AS THE FORMER IS BLOCKED BY THE SIERRA MADRE
ORIENTAL MOUNTAIN RANGE. BECAUSE OF THE FASTER INITIAL MOTION...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS ARLENE DISSIPATED BY 36 HOURS.

WIND RADII HAVE BEEN MODIFIED BASED UPON THE EARLIER ASCAT PASS AND
DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 42055.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 21.5N 97.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...
12H 30/1800Z 21.4N 98.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 01/0600Z 21.0N 99.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN



000
WTNT31 KNHC 300846
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
400 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2011

...ARLENE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR CABO ROJO MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 97.3W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM N OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA NORTHWARD TO LA
CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA CRUZ NORTHWARD TO LA PESCA MEXICO
* PALMA SOLA SOUTHWARD TO VERACRUZ MEXICO

THE HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS
MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.3 WEST...OR ON THE
COAST OF MEXICO VERY NEAR CABO ROJO. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
INLAND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TODAY...AND ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ONSHORE
THROUGH THIS MORNING.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR
AND TO THE NORTH OF CABO ROJO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN


Lots of rain for a thirsty Mexico
Yucatan and other areas of southern Mexico have been getting rain for 3-4 days straight now, waiting for Tropical wave/TS Arlene to hone in on her final destination. Central and Southern Mexico will have their rainfall. Unfortunately Northern Mexico,like Texas,will remain bone dry.
Everbody head for between the sheets, now that we have had a landfalling tropical cyclone in the atlantic basin?
good morning windward moving wave has organized a bit and might further organize more this afternoon. but the hope rule is in effect. better hurry up. as for the a girl cyclone. she was a massive tropical storm
Nice little eye (or eye-like feature) popping out right at landfall in the last few frames, accompanied by some heavy convection. If she'd just had another few hours, Arlene coulda had class. She coulda been a contender. She coulda been somebody...

Ah, well, a good first one anyway. She was unexpected; it was only a few days ago that most were convinced June would finish at 0-0-0...

Could somebody explain this??
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 JUN 2011 Time : 084500 UTC
Lat : 21:33:25 N Lon : 97:32:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 984.0mb/ 65.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.0 4.2 5.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : -22.8C Cloud Region Temp : -66.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 85km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 35.8 degrees

************************************************* ***

Quoting Neapolitan:
Nice little eye (or eye-like feature) popping out right at landfall in the last few frames, accompanied by some heavy convection. If she'd just had another few hours, Arlene coulda had class. She coulda been a contender. She coulda been somebody...

Ah, well, a good first one anyway. She was unexpected; it was only a few days ago that most were convinced June would finish at 0-0-0...





yes, looks like an occluded eye to me on here
G'morning dayshift- (says hi to night shift too, aspectre, AtHome, whoever else might be a'draggin' around)

Arlene was certainly a healthy tropical storm. If that was sitting offa my coast right now? My entire county would be in freak mode.

Boss at the hopsital where I work, made us all sign up for "emergency crew" list. She said, "Don't worry, we never get stuck here, they never hafta use the list." Another co-worker started fussing- "I got stuck here for 3 days last time!"

"What? When?" asked Boss. "Faye? Frances? Jeanne?"

"NO" said old co-worker. "Dora in '64!"

Gee I work with some OLD people!!!

Quoting aquak9:
G'morning dayshift- (says hi to night shift too, aspectre, AtHome, whoever else might be a'draggin' around)

Arlene was certainly a healthy tropical storm. If that was sitting offa my coast right now? My entire county would be in freak mode.

Boss at the hopsital where I work, made us all sign up for "emergency crew" list. She said, "Don't worry, we never get stuck here, they never hafta use the list." Another co-worker started fussing- "I got stuck here for 3 days last time!"

"What? When?" asked Boss. "Faye? Frances? Jeanne?"

"NO" said old co-worker. "Dora in '64!"

Gee I work with some OLD people!!!

LOL
Quoting Patrap:


Arlene tried right up til landfall almost got her an eye.Her increase in speed may have cost her the chance to become a hurricane.
The Storms impact is well under way this morning.


Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop
Quoting islander101010:
good morning windward moving wave has organized a bit and might further organize more this afternoon. but the hope rule is in effect. better hurry up. as for the a girl cyclone. she was a massive tropical storm


i told a buddy of mine this morning that same exact thing. told him if it was in the middle of the GOM, it would be as big as Katrina was.
Good morning aquak.Its now been 2 years and 9 months since a storm of any consequence has hit the conus.(IKE).Its been 5 years and 7 months since a major has hit the conus.(Wilma).this tear is starting with the same pattern as last.Unlike the majorityof folks on here I for one hope it stays that way.The only active season i want to see is the one called the NFL, lets get the deal done!I have not seen Ike on the blog lately?i hope he is alright.Probably did not want to get involved in the under 14 weather blog lol.Well aquak ,who dat God bless and maybe the teens on this blog will get out and enjoy thier lives.Youth wasted is a tragedy and in these days computers and cell phones waste a lot of our youths time.
Hi Saint! I'm sure Ike is enjoying life. I miss his morning QPF but TomTaylor covered that this morning.

Would love to see a calm Season™, but in all honesty, would love to see some rain, too. Would be GLAD to see the majors stay outta the gulf.

Blessings back atcha there, Saint. Good to see ya, as always.
Good early morning guys.

And we have landfall...

Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Good morning aquak.Its now been 2 years and 9 months since a storm of any consequence has hit the conus.(IKE).Its been 5 years and 7 months since a major has hit the conus.(Wilma).this tear is starting with the same pattern as last.Unlike the majorityof folks on here I for one hope it stays that way.The only active season i want to see is the one called the NFL, lets get the deal done!I have not seen Ike on the blog lately?i hope he is alright.Probably did not want to get involved in the under 14 weather blog lol.Well aquak ,who dat God bless and maybe the teens on this blog will get out and enjoy thier lives.Youth wasted is a tragedy and in these days computers and cell phones waste a lot of our youths time.


I'm enjoying mine :)
369. MahFL
Its amazing how the core of TS Arlene looks to be doing so well over MX.
Thats great young man.Hope you do a lot a lot of outdoor activities.and spend time with family and friends its a great start to maturity.And hopefully you have a spiritual guidance as well.Good luck and enjoy all youth has to offer.Besides electronics lol.
She's a 2-cycle tropical system... runnin` on a 50:1 mix of seawater and oil.

Thanks BP!
Quoting MahFL:
Its amazing how the core of TS Arlene looks to be doing so well over MX.


She just made landfall, give it approximately another hour to hour and a half.

I truly believe if Arlene had another 6-12 hours over water, we would have had our first hurricane of the season.
first pictures of the system moving into the windwards. plenty of showers texas this one might be yours
Quoting islander101010:
first pictures of the system moving into the windwards. plenty of showers texas this one might be yours


Been here since pre Katrina and the post by TomTaylor is one of the best I have seen. Where did you come from? Anyway, excellent analysis. For those of us how mostly lurk and learn and stay out of the other clutter on here, Thanks. I run several large media companies... I get some of my best tropical planning info from the Masters blog...
Quoting islander101010:
first pictures of the system moving into the windwards. plenty of showers texas this one might be yours


I sure hope so. I'm on the southeast gulf coast of TX and we sure do need the rain, but I'll believe it when I see it.
Our beach access roads were to close last night because of the rip currents and because we've had so many drownings lately.
As always with BoC systems, it's the time over water. They often seem to like to take their time in getting themselves together (land interaction a constant), but when they do, they are dangerous.

Luckily for Mexico, they get to avoid a hurricane, the rain'll be problematic enough initially. It's just a bit north of where Karl was last year.
Good Morning...

Hopefully Arlene will not cause too many problems in Mexico today and upcoming ones.
Quoting Bobbyweather:
Could somebody explain this??
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 JUN 2011 Time : 084500 UTC
Lat : 21:33:25 N Lon : 97:32:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 984.0mb/ 65.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.0 4.2 5.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : -22.8C Cloud Region Temp : -66.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 85km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 35.8 degrees

************************************************* ***


Rapid Intensification at landfall?
If Arlene wasn't starting rapid intensification at landfall, she was definitely strengthening a lot faster.
Why do these storms always seem to ri at landfall!
Good Morning. I am sure that Dr. M will re-address the flooding issues in Mexico associated with Arlene. She is really big storm and any jogs SW or rain-soaked remnants reaching down towards Mexico City could be disasterous for the folks in flimsy housing in the low-lands or on the hill sides. Hopefully the Mexican authorities (legal or otherwise) have gotten the word out....Who Knows.
Quoting aquak9:
G'morning dayshift- (says hi to night shift too, aspectre, AtHome, whoever else might be a'draggin' around)

Arlene was certainly a healthy tropical storm. If that was sitting offa my coast right now? My entire county would be in freak mode.

Boss at the hopsital where I work, made us all sign up for "emergency crew" list. She said, "Don't worry, we never get stuck here, they never hafta use the list." Another co-worker started fussing- "I got stuck here for 3 days last time!"

"What? When?" asked Boss. "Faye? Frances? Jeanne?"

"NO" said old co-worker. "Dora in '64!"

Gee I work with some OLD people!!!



Morning Aqua. I'm running late. Or early? Spent all night organizing my home office/library/craft room formerly known as my youngest' bedroom. Lol. Just now loggin' on to check what Arlene was up to. I see you've got the dayshift well in hand. I'll just be lurking for a few. Have a good one. :)
Quoting MrstormX:
Why do these storms always seem to ri at landfall!
Good morning X..Happens a lot in the Bay of Campeche. All that really warm water and only a short time to reach hurricane strength....Unless of course it moves north out of the bay into the gulf. Then you can end up with something like Audrey in 57.


A little bit of purple starting to show up in the Caribbean.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:


A little bit of purple starting to show up in the Caribbean.
Little off the east coast of the U.S.too...
392. srada
Good Morning..I see Arlene is still hanging in there

Interesting on the HWRF this morning, developing the tropical wave in the atlantic..coming close to florida and then head out to sea

Quoting stormwatcherCI:


A little bit of purple starting to show up in the Caribbean.
The island of Hispaniola could be hit with heavy rain in 84 hours..
Thank the lord for the uncharacteristic structure yesterday. Arlene had a lot of structural bugs to work out yesterday and overnight. Looks like that happened right at landfall.
Well Bret is next, I wonder how long that will take?
With Arlene in the books, it's time to start looking out east for Bret. However, Bret could be taken off the Eastern Seaboard next week, not likely IMO. Nonetheless, it's time to start wave watching.




398. HCW
Quoting srada:
Good Morning..I see Arlene is still hanging in there

Interesting on the HWRF this morning, developing the tropical wave in the atlantic..coming close to florida and then head out to sea



That is from April 22nd
Caribbean disturbance shows up on the accum. precip..
402. HCW
Quoting hurricanehunter27:

Rapid Intensification at landfall?



No even at 984 mb it wouldn't have been Rapid Intensification cause you need a 42 mb drop in less than 24 hours for RI
Looks like Arlene could have been a monster if she had not run out of ocean!
Wondering if troughiness isn't setting up on the East Coast for a bit. High pressure has been dominant so I wouldn't expect it to hang on for too long. Also mention of the first tropical wave of the year for the peninsula, whoo hoo, need all the rain we can get.

Miami NWS

THE TREND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IN THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE NOT GOOD...IF YOU WANT IT DRIER WITH MORE SUN THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. BECAUSE BOTH MODELS LAG THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A CONTINUED BAND OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AS WELL AS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS
TO RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY.
HAVE TRENDED
THE FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND TOWARDS THIS SCENARIO...BUT
NOT AS PESSIMISTIC AS THE MODELS SHOW. THE FORECAST SKY COVER AND
POPS MAY NEED FURTHER INCREASING IF THESE CLOUDIER AND WETTER
TRENDS CONTINUE.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTH FL ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
THE LATEST ECMWF
RUN IS VERY WET TUE-THU OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A SLUG OF DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIB...WITH PWATS INCREASING
TO ABOUT 1.4 INCHES AND NO DOUBT A MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE. SO NEAR
CLIMO POPS LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY.

MARINE...SSE WINDS 10-15 KT TODAY WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. SEAS WILL CONTINUE LOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
UKMET now trying to make a storm off the East Coast also, but I'm guessing it is cold cored.



DGEX shows a strange feature off of Florida's East Coast.
could have another invest shortly banding already apparent on the last vis.
Quoting MrstormX:


DGEX shows a strange feature off of Florida's East Coast.


Probably associated with the twave mentioned in the Miami NWS discussion I posted.
That Twave approaching the Caribbean won't be entering a very nice region for development.
Quoting islander101010:
could have another invest shortly
Wouldnt doubt it. That wave looks rather energetic..
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Probably associated with the twave mentioned in the Miami NWS discussion I posted.


It's possible, many models have tried to spin stuff up there over the past week, but the runs haven't been very consistent.
GFS model was dead on, first to show Arlene and had it big and broad just as she is
Quoting MrstormX:


It's possible, many models have tried to spin stuff up there over the past week, but the runs haven't been very consistent.



Need a bit more time in the Central & West ATL, IMO. Not quite there yet.
Arlene is HUUUGGGE
MODEL FORECASTS ARE SIMILAR.

...CLOSED LOW POSSIBLY FORMING NEAR THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND...

PREFERENCE: ECMWF

THE NEW ECMWF HAS TRENDED EASTWARD AND NOW GENERALLY AGREES WITH
OTHER SOLUTIONS THAT LIE
NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS...INCLUDING THE UKMET/CANADIAN...WITH THE
NAM SLOWER AND GFS FASTER RESPECTIVELY. ENSEMBLE MEMBER SPREAD IS
QUITE LARGE AS WELL...AND WITH CONTINUITY RELATIVELY POOR AT THE
MOMENT RECOMMEND A SOLUTION NEAR THE CONSENSUS WHICH IS THE ECMWF.
Can always look at the CMC Ensemble, a storm wherever you want one ;)


Quoting MrstormX:
That Twave approaching the Caribbean won't be entering a very nice region for development.
for now tutt rules the carib basin...
Quoting MrstormX:
That Twave approaching the Caribbean won't be entering a very nice region for development.


Wind shear is screaming at 40-50kts. No chance of anything developing.
not sure if these are the same systems?
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Wind shear is screaming at 40-50kts. No chance of anything developing.
Quoting stillwaiting:
for now tutt rules the carib basin...


Which is why I'm not super interested, if that shear weren't there the wave could easily explode into a full fledged hurricane much akin to what Dennis did in '05. Tropical development is more likely in the GOM or on the East Coast imo.
Looks like NHC was "testing" the wave in the Central Atlantic yesterday via SHIPS, which did not develop it.
Quoting MrstormX:


Which is why I'm not super interested, if that shear weren't there the wave could easily explode into a full fledged hurricane much akin to what Dennis did in '05. Tropical development is more likely in the GOM or on the East Coast imo.
If a frog had wings . . . ;~/
Quoting stillwaiting:
for now tutt rules the carib basin...
It will be interesting to see what happens once Arlene dissipates and the wave moves into the Caribbean.
Heavy rains and gusty winds here in Barbados
raining bad here this morning looks like were heading for more than 1 inch of rain lol

Nice T-Wave with a spin NE of Brazil.
Meanwhile there is a lot of HEEEAAAAT warnings over the US.
438. Jax82
SST

TCHP
No TC is going to form in this, I just don't see it happening.

Quoting juniort:
Heavy rains and gusty winds here in Barbados
It may be my eyes. but that wave east of you seems to have some spin...
Quoting MrstormX:
No TC is going to form in this, I just don't see it happening.

Theres definitely a lot of shear. TUTT will move slowly west, and then the Caribbean should be able to support some type of development.
Good morning! I see Arlene managed to slightly intensify right as it made landfall to 65 mph peak. Arlene will dissipate overland today and after that the tropics will be very quiet once again. 1-0-0 everyone for June, when half of us thought June wouldn't see a named storm.

I'd be watching off the East Coast over the next week however, possibility of trough splits as indicated by the CMC, UKMET and hinted at by the GFS.
Quoting MrstormX:
No TC is going to form in this, I just don't see it happening.



I completely agree.
Quoting MrstormX:
No TC is going to form in this, I just don't see it happening.


I see 50 knots of SHEER right south of Haiti. if the SHEER disappears, we'll see a TD or TS by a week or so.
If the SHEER does not, we dont see anything until Mid-July or so.
Quoting hydrus:

That darn blue capial H is over my house again...is there anyone I can call to have it removed?
Quoting muddertracker:

That darn blue capial H is over my house again...is there anyone I can call to have it removed?
Maybe late next week..It does not look promising though...Two week GFS...Link
Good morning all. Looks like Arlene is just about over land now. Hopefully flooding isn't too bad for Mexico. Time to start watching for Bret.
Coming Inland. Mexican Radar Sites



If this kills the blog let me know, I'll pull it.
Whoever said that extreme southern tx wasnt going to get much rain from arlene just earn themselves a plate of crow...pouring outside rightnow
Also - watch for a Cape Verde system, possibly a Hurricane, this month. GFS & ECMWF are showing a pattern change in the long run off the Cape Verde islands, which shows above-average heights to develop over the central Atlantic, this would force westerly shear and SAL northward away from the ITCZ and cause that same belt of shear to actually start to enhance storms outflows. And the MJO should still be in our region too. Levi, any similar thoughts?
Didn't want to go to bed lastnight. Knew she'd go ashore.

By the MJO forecast something interesting should be along shortly.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Also - watch for a Cape Verde system, possibly a Hurricane, this month. GFS & ECMWF are showing a pattern change in the long run off the Cape Verde islands, which shows above-average heights to develop over the central Atlantic, this would force westerly shear and SAL northward away from the ITCZ and cause that same belt of shear to actually start to enhance storms outflows. And the MJO should still be in our region too. Levi, any similar thoughts?


That is interesting, always exciting when Cape Verde season starts, climatically speaking should we expect ridging to be similar to last year or will systems actually trek to the US this year?
Quoting MrstormX:


That is interesting, always exciting when Cape Verde season starts, climatically speaking should we expect ridging to be similar to last year or will systems actually trek to the US this year?


The setup reminds me of Bertha actually from 2008, except a tad later in the month. That's where I'd watch for our 2nd or third storm of the season.
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
Whoever said that extreme southern tx wasnt going to get much rain from arlene just earn themselves a plate of crow...pouring outside rightnow


Glad ya'll got rain. I had given very south TX hope of a good rain.



Quick look over the world news...Vehicle accidents are ruling the day so far..ya'll be careful out there.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Also - watch for a Cape Verde system, possibly a Hurricane, this month. GFS & ECMWF are showing a pattern change in the long run off the Cape Verde islands, which shows above-average heights to develop over the central Atlantic, this would force westerly shear and SAL northward away from the ITCZ and cause that same belt of shear to actually start to enhance storms outflows. And the MJO should still be in our region too. Levi, any similar thoughts?


I thought the term "pattern change" was banned from this site last year:)?
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
Whoever said that extreme southern tx wasnt going to get much rain from arlene just earn themselves a plate of crow...pouring outside rightnow
I am so glad a little of Texas is getting good rains. Clear and hot here in South Central Texas with no rain chances. Alex did give us a little rain last year but Arlene is suppose to stay well south of us. We need a system to move north thru south Texas, maybe before end of Summer? That high pressure is just parked on top of Texas and will not move.
Quoting clwstmchasr:


I thought the term "pattern change" was banned from this site last year:)?


No that was spurious low and anything that involves pumping the ridge.
Interesting freshly published paper on Water vapor intrusions into the High Arctic during winter.
Quoting clwstmchasr:


I thought the term "pattern change" was banned from this site last year:)?

Banned? why?
Quoting CybrTeddy:


No that was spurious low and anything that involves pumping the ridge.


lol
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Also - watch for a Cape Verde system, possibly a Hurricane, this month. GFS & ECMWF are showing a pattern change in the long run off the Cape Verde islands, which shows above-average heights to develop over the central Atlantic, this would force westerly shear and SAL northward away from the ITCZ and cause that same belt of shear to actually start to enhance storms outflows. And the MJO should still be in our region too. Levi, any similar thoughts?


The GFS does show less shear over the Cape Verde area by mid-July. It's possible we could start to see some healthier-looking waves out there, but a storm out there in July would be rare. We had one in 2008, but that was special. It will be hard to get one before August.
look at the east coast!!
WeatherUnderground still hasn't fixed the map of the landmass of Mexico near the border, when you zoom in it's correct but full extent it's still wrong (outline of coast)
Glad to see southern Texas getting some rain from Arlene.
New blog. :)
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all. Looks like Arlene is just about over land now. Hopefully flooding isn't too bad for Mexico. Time to start watching for Bret.


Good Morning Levi.

I don't think it will be bad overall, but it may be bad for the local jungle roads, they wash out easily, but it gives jobs for a few weeks to those who are not working. Another upside is that the crooked cops in Tampico will have to halt their "shakedowns" of people passing through. The ground could sure use the water, if it just came down a little slower, it would be a really good thing. Too bad nobody can tell Arlene what to do. I think that holds true for most women bearing that name too (in my experience).

Are you still in AK?