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Half of the polar ice cap is missing: Arctic sea ice hits a new record low

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:53 PM GMT on September 06, 2012

Extraordinary melting of sea ice in the Arctic this summer has shattered the all-time low sea ice extent record set in September 2007, and sea ice continues to decline far below what has ever been observed. The new sea ice record was set on August 26, a full three weeks before the usual end of the melting season, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Every major scientific institution that tracks Arctic sea ice agrees that new records for low ice area, extent, and volume have been set. These organizations include the University of Washington Polar Science Center (a new record for low ice volume), the Nansen Environmental & Remote Sensing Center in Norway, and the University of Illinois Cryosphere Today. A comprehensive collection of sea ice graphs shows the full story. Satellite records of sea ice extent date back to 1979, though a 2011 study by Kinnard et al. shows that the Arctic hasn't seen a melt like this for at least 1,450 years (see a more detailed article on this over at skepticalscience.com.) The latest September 5, 2012 extent of 3.5 million square kilometers is approximately a 50% reduction in the area of Arctic covered by sea ice, compared to the average from 1979 - 2000. The ice continues to melt, and has not reached the low for this year yet.


Figure 1. A sunny, slushy day at the North Pole on September 1, 2012. Webcam image courtesy of the North Pole Environmental Observatory.


Figure 2. Sea ice extent on September 5, 2012, showed that half of the polar ice cap was missing, compared to the average from 1979 - 2000. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Why the Arctic sea ice is important
Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system. The polar ice caps help to regulate global temperature by reflecting sunlight back into space. White snow and ice at the poles reflects sunlight, but dark ocean absorbs it. Replacing bright sea ice with dark ocean is a recipe for more and faster global warming. The Autumn air temperature over the Arctic has increased by 4 - 6°F in the past decade, and we could already be seeing the impacts of this warming in the mid-latitudes, by an increase in extreme weather events. Another non-trivial impact of the absence of sea ice is increased melting in Greenland. We already saw an unprecedented melting event in Greenland this year, and as warming continues, the likelihood of these events increase.


Figure 3. August set a new record for lowest Arctic sea ice extent. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.



Figure 4. Arctic sea ice death spiral as plotted by Jim Pettit using data from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency.

Huge storm pummels Alaska
A massive low pressure system with a central pressure of 970 mb swept through Alaska on Tuesday, generating hurricane-force wind gusts near Anchorage, Alaska that knocked out power to 55,000 homes. Mighty Alaskan storms like this are common in winter, but rare in summer and early fall. The National Weather Service in Anchorage said in their Wednesday forecast discussion that the forecast wind speeds from this storm were incredibly strong for this time of year--four to six standard anomalies above normal. A four-standard anomaly event occurs once every 43 years, and a five-standard anomaly event is a 1-in-4800 year event. However, a meteorologist I heard from who lives in the Anchorage area characterized the wind damage that actually occurred as a 1-in-10 year event. A few maximum wind gusts recorded on Tuesday during the storm:

McHugh Creek (Turnagain Arm)... ... ..88 mph
Paradise Valley (Potter Marsh)... ... 75 mph
Upper Hillside (1400 ft)... ... ... ... 70 mph
Anchorage port... ... ... ... ... ... ... .63 mph

The storm has weakened to a central pressure of 988 mb today, and is located just north of Alaska. The storm is predicted to bring strong winds of 25 - 35 mph and large waves to the edge of the record-thin and record-small Arctic ice cap, and may add to the unprecedented decline in Arctic sea ice being observed this summer.


Figure 5. An unusually strong storm formed off the coast of Alaska on August 5 and tracked into the center of the Arctic Ocean, where it slowly dissipated over the next several days. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Aqua satellite captured this natural-color mosaic image on Aug. 6, 2012. The center of the storm at that date was located in the middle of the Arctic Ocean. Image credit: NASA.

Arctic storms may be increasing due to climate change
This week's Alaskan storm is the second unusually strong low pressure system to affect the Arctic in the past month. On August 4 - 8, a mighty storm with a central pressure of 963 mb raged through the Arctic, bringing strong winds that helped scatter and break up Arctic sea ice. According to a detailed post at NASA Earth Observatory, that storm was in the top 3 percent for strongest storms ever recorded north of 70 degrees latitude. A study of long-term Arctic cyclone trends authored by a team led by John Walsh and Xiangdong Zhang of the University of Alaska Fairbanks found that number and intensity of Arctic cyclones has increased during the second half of the twentieth century, particularly during the summer. Dr. Zhang explained that climate change has caused sea ice to retreat markedly in recent decades and has also warmed Arctic Ocean temperatures. Such changes may be providing more energy and moisture to support cyclone development and persistence. The strong storms of this week and a month ago would have had far less impact on the ice just a decade ago, when the sea ice was much thicker and more extensive.

A sea ice decline double-whammy
The monster Arctic storms like we've seen this year have sped up the rate of sea ice loss, but increased water temperatures and air temperatures due to human-caused global warming are the dominant reasons for the record melting of the Arctic sea ice. A July 2012 study by Day et al. found that the most influential of the possible natural influences on sea ice loss was the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). The AMO has two phases, negative (cold) and positive (warm), which impact Arctic sea ice. The negative phase tends to create sea surface temperatures in the far north Atlantic that are colder than average. In this study, the AMO only accounted for 5% - 31% of the observed September sea ice decline since 1979. The scientists concluded that given the lack of evidence that natural forces were controlling sea ice fluctuations, the majority of sea ice decline we've seen during the 1953 - 2010 period was due to human causes.

Joe Romm has a more in-depth look at the new Arctic sea ice record and what it means for the future over at climateprogess.org.

Angela Fritz and Jeff Masters
Turbulence
Turbulence
Beautiful orographic formations over the mountains on a windy evening.

Sea Ice Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

ACE (104kt) (Source) %u2014 Storm:
1) 9.52 Leslie 8) 2.45 Debby
2) 9.47 Isaac 9) 1.44 Florence
3) 8.19 Gordon 10) 1.38 Alberto
4) 7.71 Ernesto 11) 0.865 Beryl
5) 7.51 Kirk 12) 0.245 Helene
6) 5.43 Michael 13) 0.245 Joyce
7) 2.72 Chris
Total: 57.2

Damage
(millions
USD)
3,061

Deaths
61
1002. 7544
Quoting K8eCane:


Yes...Let em go to church if they want to. Not our place to fix it. Leslie is almost dead isnt she?


maybe now a weaker leslie will go west lol
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Today's recon flight into 90L was cancelled. They will try again tomorrow, if warranted.


Pressure has dropped by an amazing rate of 1mb per 8 hours.

Woo hoo.
1004. VINNY04
Quoting K8eCane:


Yes...Let em go to church if they want to. Not our place to fix it. Leslie is almost dead isnt she?
dont know i havent checked on leslie for a while. havent payed any attention to her because she isnt close to florida
1005. LargoFl

000
WTNT42 KNHC 071451
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 07 2012

LESLIE HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY TOO LONG AND THE OCEAN BENEATH HAS
COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY. IN FACT...ONE OF THE AXBT SONDES LAUNCHED FROM
THE NOAA PLANE CURRENTLY IN LESLIE MEASURED A SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE OF 24.5 DEGREES CELSIUS. CONSEQUENTLY...THE CONVECTION
HAS DIMINISHED AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. THE
NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ALSO MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF
981 MB...BUT BOTH SFMR AND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS ONLY SUPPORT AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS. ONCE LESLIE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
COOL POOL IT HAS CREATED FOR ITSELF...THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO BE LOW. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...LESLIE SHOULD HAVE
LOST TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOME A STRONG POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE.

THE STEERING CURRENTS COLLAPSED A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO RESULTING IN
LESLIE BEING NEARLY STATIONARY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
AND CANADA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD ACCELERATE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT
EVENTUALLY WILL FORCE LESLIE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH THIS
SOLUTION PRIMARILY IN THE FIRST 3 DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF.

THE WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...
WILL GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE WAVES AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 26.8N 62.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 27.1N 62.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 28.0N 62.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 29.0N 62.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 30.5N 61.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 33.3N 60.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 39.0N 57.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 45.5N 53.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

1006. K8eCane
Quoting 7544:


maybe now a weaker leslie will go west lol


I dont think she can go west. But she can sit there and "spinout"
Quoting nyhurhunter:
So what caused the other record low sea ice extent 1,450 years ago, Humans?


It was more a local warming event at the time due to a certain alignment in the North Atlantic Oscillation–Arctic Oscillation & El Niño. Here is some more on it..
1008. Bielle
Quoting VINNY04:
Friday
Partly cloudy with thunderstorms and rain showers. High of 90F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

Friday Night
Partly cloudy with thunderstorms and rain showers. Low of 70F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

Saturday
Partly cloudy with thunderstorms and rain showers. High of 90F. Winds from the SSW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40% with rainfall amounts near 0.3 in. possible.

Saturday Night
Partly cloudy with thunderstorms and rain showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with thunderstorms and rain showers. Low of 72F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

Sunday
Partly cloudy with thunderstorms and rain showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with thunderstorms and rain showers. High of 88F. Winds from the SW at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50% with rainfall amounts near 0.3 in. possible.

Sunday Night
Overcast with thunderstorms and rain showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy. Fog overnight. Low of 72F. Winds from the West at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

Monday
Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and rain in the morning, then overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm and rain. High of 90F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 70% with rainfall amounts near 0.3 in. possible.

Monday Night
Mostly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and rain in the evening, then overcast. Fog overnight. Low of 72F. Winds from the NE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

Tuesday
Overcast in the morning, then partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and rain. High of 90F. Winds from the ENE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy. Low of 68F. Winds from the NE at 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday
Partly cloudy. High of 90F. Winds from the NE at 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy. Low of 68F. Winds from the NE at 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday
Partly cloudy with a chance of rain. High of 88F. Winds from the ENE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

Thursday Night
Partly cloudy. Low of 66F. Winds from the NE at 5 to 15 mph.

Friday
Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. High of 86F. Winds from the ENE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

Friday Night
Clear with a chance of a thunderstorm. Low of 64F. Winds from the ENE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

Saturday
Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. High of 88F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 50%.

Saturday Night
Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. Low of 72F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

Sunday
Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. High of 88F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

Sunday Night
Partly cloudy. Low of 72F. Winds less than 5 mph.

Monday
Partly cloudy. High of 86F. Winds less than 5 mph.

Monday Night
Clear. Low of 72F. Winds less than 5 mph

should be an interesting yet quite nice week.


This would be helpful perhaps if we knew the location.
I'm out before the blog police start accusing me of policing the blog...
1010. VINNY04
Quoting seminolesfan:
Like you posting your entire forecast outlook without even including the location is a good use of blog space?
sorry that was for Plant City. Go Gators!
1011. 7544
90l starting to fill now at this hour
Quoting bappit:

The deniers are perfectly happy if we don't talk about it.


I didn't say don't talk about it. I said go somewhere else and talk about it. Debate it all you want. Just please, can we please stick to the fact that there are 3 storms and more on the way? Not to mention crazy weather happening all over the US (and other places) that may or may not be caused by AGW but debating it here isn't going to change or solve anything because it is weather that is happening right now and personally I'd rather see what is going on right now than to debate wth caused it.
TIA
Quoting Bielle:


This would be helpful perhaps if we knew the location.
So, by all means, please quote the WHOLE thing...
1014. VINNY04
Quoting Bielle:


This would be helpful perhaps if we knew the location.
my bad. its plant city. its in florida.
Quoting VINNY04:
sorry that was for Plant City. Go Gators!


Don't be bringing sports into this blog...It is a weather blog...Go Hogs! ;)
1017. K8eCane
Quoting SrChiefFan1:


Don't be bringing sports into this blog...It is a weather blog...Go Hogs! ;)


oh my goodness...GO TARHEELS
Quoting K8eCane:


I dont think she can go west. But she can sit there and "spinout"


Why couldn't she go west? (sorry if that's a dumb question - trying to learn, that's all.)
Quoting GTcooliebai:
ACE (104kt²) (Source) — Storm:
1) 9.52 Leslie 8) 2.45 Debby
2) 9.47 Isaac 9) 1.44 Florence
3) 8.19 Gordon 10) 1.38 Alberto
4) 7.71 Ernesto 11) 0.865 Beryl
5) 7.51 Kirk 12) 0.245 Helene
6) 5.43 Michael 13) 0.245 Joyce
7) 2.72 Chris
Total: 57.2

Damage
(millions
USD) Deaths
3,061 61


Problem with ACE is that only the portion of that value which actually effected land should be counted when rating a storm.

The entire value is useful in terms of comparing the activity of a season or a storm over it's lifetime for climatological purposes, but it's useless for rating a storm's impacts on humanity.

More useful would be if the computer models predicted the total ACE score, Ike, and HSI effecting land ahead of time, to use as a forecasting tool...


Adding a few severity index calculations to each frame of a model is an insignificant amount of processing, and I'm perplexed as to why it hasn't already been implemented, especially on HWRF and GFDL.
1020. bappit
Quoting Skyepony:
Quoting nyhurhunter:
So what caused the other record low sea ice extent 1,450 years ago, Humans?


It was more a local warming event at the time due to a certain alignment in the North Atlantic Oscillation–Arctic Oscillation & El Niño. Here is some more on it..

"The Medieval period is found to display warmth that
matches or exceeds that of the past decade in some regions, but which falls well below recent levels
globally. This period is marked by a tendency for La Niña–like conditions in the tropical Pacific.
The coldest temperatures of the Little Ice Age are observed over the interval 1400 to 1700 C.E.,
with greatest cooling over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere continents. The patterns of
temperature change imply dynamical responses of climate to natural radiative forcing changes
involving El Niño and the North Atlantic Oscillation–Arctic Oscillation."
1022. K8eCane
Quoting MNhockeymama:


Why couldn't she go west? (sorry if that's a dumb question - trying to learn, that's all.)


I think theres a blocking ridge there but not sure. It might be an ULL but someting is blocking her. I could be wrong. Im learning too. Have been for 6 years but i am a slow learner LOL
Straying away from the current blog topic for a moment: congrats to TS Leslie for being the first storm this year to go into double digits where ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) is concerned. Leslie now leads the season, with an ACE of 10.3025 and counting. Meanwhile, Michael is quickly climbing the ranks, having accumulated an ACE so far of 7.0475. (Michael will be in third place by the end of the day, and second place tomorrow unless she falls apart.)

FWIW, 2012's overall ACE of just under 61 is larger than the total amount for all of 1997 or 2009 (and 2002's total of 65 will be surpassed by morning).

ACE

There's now been a at least one active storm in the Atlantic every day for the past 23. That is, since Gordon formed on August 16.
Quoting goosegirl1:


You are creating an arguement based on something yo know to be a fallacy. Please stick to facts. Facts don't change.

Sure they do. Facts are frequently modified by new information.
1026. VINNY04
Quoting K8eCane:


oh my goodness...GO TARHEELS
oh boy here we go again....but i love to argue this one!
Quoting K8eCane:


I think theres a blocking ridge there but not sure. It might be an ULL but someting is blocking her. I could be wrong. Im learning too. Have been for 6 years but i am a slow learner LOL

Thanks! I hear ya: slow learner - lol!
Is there a way to search for all posts you have ever made on the blog, for a specific comment or sentence?!

I may need to look up something I said a few weeks ago, due to an ironic sequence of present-day events.
1029. bappit
Quoting MNhockeymama:


I didn't say don't talk about it. I said go somewhere else and talk about it. Debate it all you want. Just please, can we please stick to the fact that there are 3 storms and more on the way? Not to mention crazy weather happening all over the US (and other places) that may or may not be caused by AGW but debating it here isn't going to change or solve anything because it is weather that is happening right now and personally I'd rather see what is going on right now than to debate wth caused it.
TIA

Ehhh, Leslie is dog meat. 90L never was. Michael is fading. They picked a pretty good time to get this topic out of the way. I was impressed by the restraint shown on the blog the last couple of weeks about the record minimum set back in August.
!

-


*move along*
1031. VINNY04
8 days till the NHL CBA expires. for those who care to know....
What one believes metaphysically is a matter of faith. This is a faith that has limits in the physical world; it is one that is personal and spiritual, and one should be free to believe as they may.

However, what one believes physically is a matter of fact. There must be physical evidence that supports this belief. It should be founded in evidence and consistently tested. The results should be repeatable and have no limit in the physical world.

One should not be free of ridicule to "believe" in disproved theories (e.g., the world is flat and the sun rotates around it), nor should one free of scrutiny to give the metaphysical physically-causal attributes for these would not be repeatable.
1037. VINNY04
Quoting PensacolaDoug:




Yet oddly enough our national motto has always been "In God we trust".

My name is Doug,and I approved this message.
doug for president!
Quoting greggebhardt:
You weather people blew it when you cooperated with Gore. No one believes what you or the government says anymore!


Al Gore is very genuine in his concern about global warming. Environmental science formed part of his studies at college. He knows a lot about the subject, and those who deride him as a political bandwagonner with ulterior motives are pretty ignorant.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:




Yet oddly enough our national motto has always been "In God we trust".

My name is Doug,and I approved this message.

Actually, "In God we trust" has only been our national motto since 1956. Prior to that "E Pluribus Unum" was the national motto. (I like the old motto better.)

My name is also Doug and I approve *this* message. :)
Quoting RTSplayer:
Is there a way to search for all posts you have ever made on the blog, for a specific comment or sentence?!

I may need to look up something I said a few weeks ago, due to an ironic sequence of present-day events.


Google it if you have an idea of how the words went.
.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:




Yet oddly enough our national motto has always been "In God we trust".

My name is Doug,and I approved this message.
That phrase, along with 'under God' in the Pledge of Allegiance was added by the Eisenhower Administration.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:




Yet oddly enough our national motto has always been "In God we trust".

My name is Doug,and I approved this message.


who's god are we trusting? which one?
Quoting PensacolaDoug:




Yet oddly enough our national motto has always been "In God we trust".

My name is Doug,and I approved this message.


Actually that isn't true. The motto first was placed on coins in 1864 and then signed into law in 1956 by President Eisenhower
Quoting VINNY04:
doug for president!


Might as well have him run....his information that he presents is wrong...
GFS Fix Released on September 5, 2012

Change in land surface model in global forecast system and associated cool and moist bias in near surface temperature and moisture fields


Technical Implementation Notice 12-42
National Weather Service Headquarters Washington DC
330 PM EDT Tue Sep 4 2012

Beginning with the 1200 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) model
run on Wednesday, September 5, 2012, the National Centers for
Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Central Operations will implement
a fix to the Land Surface Model used to drive the Global Forecast
System (GFS). This correction is expected to improve the cool
and moist bias in the near surface air temperature and moisture
fields during the warm season.

Starting in mid-June 2012, NCEP confirmed a problem with the GFS
near-surface temperature and moisture simulations. The model was
not verifying in the late afternoon over the central United
States when drought conditions existed. Specifically, users noted
a significant 2m cold and wet bias in both the MOS and GFS
gridded products. The NCEP Environmental Modeling Center (EMC)
traced the problem to a look-up table used in the land surface
scheme that modulates evapotranspiration based on vegetation type
and root zone depth. Current settings allowed for excessive
transpiration and plant-extraction of soil moisture from deeper
soil layers, which caused the lower atmospheric boundary layer to
become too moist and cool.

This summer, EMC conducted a parallel test of the GFS with
corrected land surface parameters. EMC found the change to the
land surface model significantly reduced the cold/wet bias over
and improved the 0-3 day precipitation forecasts. An analysis of
the parallel test results can be viewed here:

www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/GFS/ppt/gfs_lsm_analysis_09 0412_final.pptx

In addition, the Meteorological Development Lab (MDL) evaluated
the GFS MOS guidance generated from the GFS parallel output. MDL
concluded the corrections in the GFS parallel output had the
desired effect of reducing the cold/wet bias resulting in
improved bias and error scores in the GFS MOS temperature and
dewpoint guidance. Slight improvement was also noted in the GFS
MOS probability of precipitation guidance generated from the GFS
parallel output..............
1055. A4Guy
Seems odd that we are going into the peak of the hurricane season, and we may not have any active storms (pending the wave coming off Africa this weekend). With such a busy pre-season, I wonder if the trend will continue, or if things will be quiet. Seems like the cool fronts are starting early which should keep CV stroms away...but any Carib storms could move in our general direction.
Too many kids on here these days. I suppose that's why so many mature minds have left.
What is going on this morning? This blog is for tropical weather!!
Quoting Birthmark:

Actually, "In God we trust" has only been our national motto since 1956. Prior to that "E Pluribus Unum" was the national motto. (I like the old motto better.)

My name is also Doug and I approve *this* message. :)


Thank you for the clarification. I learn something new most every day!
1062. VINNY04
Quoting yoboi:



or the 16 trillion in debt we are....i wonder how much of the 16 trillion was used to study climate change...
dont know. i would have to reasearch that.
Quoting FL1980:


Yeah its too bad Al Gore didn't have this agenda while he was vice-president. Oh that's right, he couldn't make millions off of it while being VP. This is the biggest scam of all time. How can anyone buy into this garbage.
Al Gore’s venture capital firm invested $6 million in a software company that stands to make billions of dollars from cap-and-trade regulation — further fueling controversy that Gore lied about his profiteering from cap-and-trade to Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) and the House Energy and Environment Subcommittee...

Link
1064. intampa
"in god we trust" is that abrahams god, yawheeh, zuez, sheeba, buhda, posieden,mohammed, jesus the son of "god",hercules and the other greek gods etc etc etc.... just which god do we trust
1065. bappit
Quoting AussieStorm:
The Weatherman Is Not a Moron




Link

"Catering to the demands of viewers can mean intentionally running the risk of making forecasts less accurate. For many years, the Weather Channel avoided forecasting an exact 50 percent chance of rain, which might seem wishy-washy to consumers. Instead, it rounded up to 60 or down to 40. In what may be the worst-kept secret in the business, numerous commercial weather forecasts are also biased toward forecasting more precipitation than will actually occur. (In the business, this is known as the wet bias.) For years, when the Weather Channel said there was a 20 percent chance of rain, it actually rained only about 5 percent of the time."
1066. yoboi
Quoting Birthmark:

I always go with the god that has the best hat. Currently, that is Thor, imo.



sounds like the syfy channel is your information underground????
So I guess nobody cares that the GFS got another upgrade.... :(

Its supposed to fix the cooler and moister bias the GFS has in hot drought summers, making the input of how much humidity should exist in a drought actaully shine through in the model, should help forecast highs and troughs.

Current settings allowed for excessive
transpiration and plant-extraction of soil moisture from deeper
soil layers, which caused the lower atmospheric boundary layer to
become too moist and cool.
Quoting Birthmark:

Sure they do. Facts are frequently modified by new information.


You cannot state what you know to be untrue order to support a fallacy. It doesn't follow, and no one will take you seriously. Peace.
Quoting masonsnana:
What is going on this morning? This blog is for tropical weather!!


Nah, it's a romper room, now. Who manufactures Ritalin? I think I'll buy shares in the company.
Quoting A4Guy:
Seems odd that we are going into the peak of the hurricane season, and we may not have any active storms (pending the wave coming off Africa this weekend). With such a busy pre-season, I wonder if the trend will continue, or if things will be quiet. Seems like the cool fronts are starting early which should keep CV stroms away...but any Carib storms could move in our general direction.
peak is monday then we be on the downslope
1071. bappit
Quoting intampa:
"in god we trust" is that abrahams god, yawheeh, zuez, sheeba, buhda, posieden,mohammed, jesus the son of "god",hercules and the other greek gods etc etc etc.... just which god do we trust

Basically I think it says we don't trust ourselves.
It is time for you blog cops to start enforcing the rules!!!Global warming,natl. politics,and religion are great topics to discuss,just not here.I hold strong opinions on each but I come here for tropics weather,nothing else.You are ruining the blog!!
Quoting bappit:

"Catering to the demands of viewers can mean intentionally running the risk of making forecasts less accurate. For many years, the Weather Channel avoided forecasting an exact 50 percent chance of rain, which might seem wishy-washy to consumers. Instead, it rounded up to 60 or down to 40. In what may be the worst-kept secret in the business, numerous commercial weather forecasts are also biased toward forecasting more precipitation than will actually occur. (In the business, this is known as the wet bias.) For years, when the Weather Channel said there was a 20 percent chance of rain, it actually rained only about 5 percent of the time."


even at the NWS here a 20% chance of rain either materializes into a 40% or a 5-10% chance of rain.
1075. VINNY04
Quoting masonsnana:
What is going on this morning? This blog is for tropical weather!!
its been like this all day
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
So I guess nobody cares that the GFS got another upgrade.... :(

Its supposed to fix the cooler and moister bias the GFS has in hot drought summers, making the input of how much humidity should exist in a drought actaully shine through in the model, should help forecast highs and troughs.
This is more of a "tail wagging the dog' type of upgrade rather than a upgraded physics model. Minor improvements to MOS output verification and small mesoscale moisture improvement, but probably not much of an effect on the synoptic scale, IMO.
It seems that the models they use are more accurate for the North atlantic and adjecent areas, but as you can see in the diagrams in that article the pacific was also affected, but as they say in the article, the models are more north atlantic based. The reality is that the climate is changing, but to say it can only be caused by one thing(humans) seems irresponsible to me, knowing that all we have to compare with are models. Which we know are not nearly always accurate. Furthermore, even if the "greenhouse effect is responsible, how do we know that all that CO2 came from humans,it could have come from various other sources. Im not saying that you are wrong, you are not. Im just saying that without questions there would be no science.
Quoting Skyepony:
Quoting nyhurhunter:
So what caused the other record low sea ice extent 1,450 years ago, Humans?


It was more a local warming event at the time due to a certain alignment in the North Atlantic Oscillation–Arctic Oscillation & El Niño. Here is some more on it..
Quoting seer2012:
It is time for you blog cops to start enforcing the rules!!!Global warming,natl. politics,and religion are great topics to discuss,just not here.I hold strong opinions on each but I come here for tropics weather,nothing else.You are ruining the blog!!


actually this is Dr Master's blog, many times he does include global warming topics so discussing global warming is not off topic.
Ya'll have fun today. It looks like a beautiful day here in the Panhandle of Florida and I think I'll go enjoy the beach. Have a super weekend and enjoy life and don't sweat the little things...
1080. VINNY04
Quoting SrChiefFan1:
Ya'll have fun today. It looks like a beautiful day here in the Panhandle of Florida and I think I'll go enjoy the beach. Have a super weekend and enjoy life and don't sweat the little things...
sounds like a plan
1081. lavinia
Quoting 954FtLCane:


actually this is Dr Master's blog, many times he does include global warming topics so discussing global warming is not off topic.


True...but religion and politics ARE off topic.
Quoting goosegirl1:


You cannot state what you know to be untrue order to support a fallacy. It doesn't follow, and no one will take you seriously. Peace.

If it will make it easier, suppose I encounter someone who says that they believe E=MC Hammer and I go with the more scientific equation. Are both beliefs equally valid or is the one supported by the known facts superior?
Quoting bappit:

"The Medieval period is found to display warmth that
matches or exceeds that of the past decade in some regions, but which falls well below recent levels
globally. This period is marked by a tendency for La Niña–like conditions in the tropical Pacific.
The coldest temperatures of the Little Ice Age are observed over the interval 1400 to 1700 C.E.,
with greatest cooling over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere continents. The patterns of
temperature change imply dynamical responses of climate to natural radiative forcing changes
involving El Niño and the North Atlantic Oscillation–Arctic Oscillation."


Thanks~ I had remembered that backwards..La Nina, positive AMO & PDO made medieval warm. This time ENSO is averaging warm too.

Crazy chart in there looking at the last ~1500 years how positive everything suddenly is.
E=MC Hammer


That was ROFL worthy for sure!
and if ya really want to know the truth
there is much more occuring
then the simple changing
of the earths climate
we are actually changing
the building blocks
of all life itself


the greatness field experiment ever performed

we ourselves are the subject of our own result
Quoting yoboi:



sounds like the syfy channel is your information underground????

Nah, just my one-stop shopping center for used deities.
Maybe Dr. M was off topic - he knew this s... would follow.
Quoting lavinia:


True...but religion and politics ARE off topic.


Unfortunately global warming discussion is usually followed by people's political and religious discourses. An unnecessary evil. You see scientific facts aren't good enough for many when they're blinded by religion and politics.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and if ya really want to know the truth
there is much more occuring
then the simple changing
of the earths climate
we are actually changing
the building blocks
of all life itself


the greatness field experiment ever performed

we ourselves are the subject of our own result


I picture Rod Serling smoking a cigarette in the background.
Considering that half of Dr. Master's post was about the melting polar Ice cap, I don't think talking about global warming is out of line here.
1091. sar2401
Quoting 7544:
gota admit 90l looks better now than it did all day yesterday and early this am while under only 5 k of shear this may be the window where it could form in the next 6 to 12 hours as it drift eastward keep a checking stranger things have happen with gulf systems


What is it with you an 90L? You've been pumping this mess since before it got in the Gulf. 90L looks worse now than it ever has. Even the NHC has lowered the survival probability to 20%.
1092. MTWX
Quoting yoboi:


i live in southwest la this will be our first cool front, the first one usually does not digg down real south in the gom usually takes oct front to do that, example when the front picked up wilma in 2005 think that was oct timeframe.....


I was thinking it is a bit early in the year too, but I have no objection to a high in the upper 70's for Sunday. Especially after this week of mid to high 90's we have had!
Quoting 954FtLCane:


Unfortunately global warming discussion is usually followed by people's political and religious discourses. An unnecessary evil. You see scientific facts aren't good enough for many when they're blinded by religion and politics.
Just goes to show how intertwined the whole GW idea is with religion and politics. Because the theory is based on beliefs not hard science, just like the other two. There never will be a consensus on any of the three. Just people thinking everyone else is wrong/lying/stupid when they hold the opposing belief. Nothing will be changed...
Quoting VINNY04:
im gonna try again. QUIT!!!!!!
So you get your mouthy opinion and you can tell other's to "QUIT"? Welcome to the ignore list. Welcome to the ignore list.
1095. sar2401
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and if ya really want to know the truth
there is much more occuring
then the simple changing
of the earths climate
we are actually changing
the building blocks
of all life itself


the greatness field experiment ever performed

we ourselves are the subject of our own result


That is very profound...I'm sure it must be, because I have no idea what you're talking about. :)
1096. VINNY04
Quoting SouthTampa:
So you get your mouthy opinion and you can tell other's to "QUIT"? Welcome to the ignore list. Welcome to the ignore list.
they said to stop talking about it so we did. but then people kept bring ing it up
1097. yoboi
Quoting MTWX:


I was thinking it is a bit early in the year too, but I have no objection to a high in the upper 70's for Sunday. Especially after this week of mid to high 90's we have had!


it's def been hot and humid here past few days wonder how much rain the front will bring...cool weather meeting warm sure some severe storms might show up...
Quoting MTWX:


I was thinking it is a bit early in the year too, but I have no objection to a high in the upper 70's for Sunday. Especially after this week of mid to high 90's we have had!


No kidding, today will be close to 100, tomorrow it just depends on when the front pushes through but should get close to 90 or above and then Sunday will be glorious.

To bad the rain chances have dropped for tomorrow. We need the rain.
1099. sar2401
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I picture Rod Serling smoking a cigarette in the background.


Now that's pretty funny. "Welcome to the...AGW Zone".
Quoting SouthTampa:
What one believes metaphysically is a matter of faith. This is a faith that has limits in the physical world; it is one that is personal and spiritual, and one should be free to believe as they may.

However, what one believes physically is a matter of fact. There must be physical evidence that supports this belief. It should be founded in evidence and consistently tested. The results should be repeatable and have no limit in the physical world.

One should not be free of ridicule to "believe" in disproved theories (e.g., the world is flat and the sun rotates around it), nor should one free of scrutiny to give the metaphysical physically-causal attributes for these would not be repeatable.



Metaphysics is not entirely about faith.

There are certain Metaphysical(beyond physical) things which can be proven logically, even without physical evidence.

If you are talking about the origin of the universe, it is obvious that is both a physical and a metaphysical issue.

Why is it metaphysical? Because you must ask the questions, "Why and how should anything exist at all? Why not nothing?"


Now it is true that some aspects of Metaphysics are "unprovable" or "non-falsifiable," but not being provable does not make a theory false. Not being falsifiable certainly does not make a hypothesis or a spiritual claim false, yet certain things can still be shown to be more likely, or more rational than others.

Examples:

"This sentence is true and unprovable."

You cannot prove the sentence false, and there's no reason to doubt it, yet if the sentence really is true, you cannot prove it either, and this has been proven(seriously).


On creation:

Chaos First Argument (Mine originally, I think):


Now you may ask, "What happened 'before' the universe/multi-verse existed? Before laws of physics existed, etc, was there true chaos?"


If there is true chaos, then anything can happen.

If anything can happen then it's possible for an omnipotent being to exist.

If an omnipotent being exists it can then establish order, removing chaos, and prevent the existence of any other omnipotents or omnipotent wannnabes.


Order First:

See the last paragraph above.

By definition, God is fundamental reality, or more scientifically, "The rational principle which governs the universe".



The notion of the "Sky Fairy" God, which atheists mock, actually any manner of "creationism" believes, except in the form of visions or metaphor (for human understanding). There is an ontological barrier between us and the true omnipotence, not that "it" can't do whatever it wants, but that we cannot comprehend the full reality of "it," as one would need to be omnipotent in order to fully comprehend an omnipotent, and since "There can be only one," that comprehension is not ontologically possible.

Similarly, you can never truly understand the universe, because no matter how good your model might be, you would need to know the position of every entity: light, particles, fields, or other energy or matter forms known and unknown, in order to actually test your model. Our absolute knowledge of anything in the universe is nearly zero, as even our best measurements are merely approximations with very large margins of error.



One of the glaring problems of the scientific method is that one time events, such as creation of the universe or any alleged symmetry breaking or any other similar theory, cannot be repeated for testing, and therefore would not be considered "science" in the modern definition, even though they must be some form of physical knowledge.
Quoting masonsnana:
What is going on this morning? This blog is for tropical weather!!
But this forum is not only for tropical weather. It's for weather of all types, and climate, too (in fact, it's a "Whatever Dr. Masters has chosen to write about" forum). It's certainly not a religious forum, and it's only a political forum insofar as discussing solutions for avoiding catastrophic climate change goes against the political ideologies of some forum members, so they drag politics into it.

The thing is, some people don't like what science is telling them--that is, that we humans are disrupting our environment at an increasing pace. So rather than deal with the scientific facts and move onto discussing ways we can keep from rendering that environment completely unlivable, they instead "kill the messenger", so to speak, and simply pretend that there is no disruption, or that we're not causing it, or that it's not so bad, and so on. It's an unfortunate byproduct of sub-par journalism that so many otherwise intelligent people have failed to grasp the true consequences of what's happening--but that doesn't and won't make those consequences any less devastating.
1104. Kumo
Quoting reedzone:


Well, there are people in here (very few) that are Christian Conservative like me who believes in Global Warming, but is not caused by man. Scientists have proven that GW is real, but I believe it is an aging/natural issue as the world gets older in time. If you think this is bad, read the book of Revelations, the world is going to get worse in time (if you believe in the word of God)


I really think that the book of Revelation and other prophetic works were meant to serve as a warning of what could potentially happen if we make the wrong choices.

I really don't think God (regardless of how anyone personally sees him, through Christianity, Islam, Judaism, etc.) would rather us to just sit back and let end of the world prophecy to "just happen".

While prayer and meditation are healthy, these practices won't fix the damage that humans have caused to this world.

We've got well documented scientific evidence and data that humans are the chief cause of this accelerated global warming.

Folks need to start putting pressure on elected officials (Conservative, Liberal, Libertarian, etc.) to institute a "Carbon Tax". Revenue could go into production of affordable bioplastic materials that absorb CO2.

Link

This would allow us more time to cheapen the cost of alternative fuels and technology, while making a huge impact in returning atmospheric CO2 to pre-industrial levels.

Jesus, Muhammad, and Buddha were great men of even greater action, I am pretty sure they won't mind if we begin taking the steps needed to save our planet. It would not surprise me if we did them proud by being a little more proactive.

Edit: References to political affiliation
1105. bappit
Quoting nyhurhunter:
It seems that the models they use are more accurate for the North atlantic and adjecent areas, but as you can see in the diagrams in that article the pacific was also affected, but as they say in the article, the models are more north atlantic based. The reality is that the climate is changing, but to say it can only be caused by one thing(humans) seems irresponsible to me, knowing that all we have to compare with are models. Which we know are not nearly always accurate. Furthermore, even if the "greenhouse effect is responsible, how do we know that all that CO2 came from humans,it could have come from various other sources. Im not saying that you are wrong, you are not. Im just saying that without questions there would be no science.

The parameters for the system are fairly constant except for the CO2 we are putting in. We can identify the CO2 as coming from fossil fuels by the isotopes.
1107. ncstorm
Our scientific power has outrun our spiritual power. We have guided missiles and misguided men.
Martin Luther King, Jr.
Quoting VINNY04:
they said to stop talking about it so we did. but then people kept bring ing it up


I'm sorry bringing what up?

"Once I thought I was out...they pulled me back in"

12z GFS?
1109. Michfan
Wow first GW, now politics and religion. This has gotten out of hand around here.
1110. yoboi
Quoting Neapolitan:
But this forum is not only for tropical weather. It's for weather of all types, and climate, too (in fact, it's a "Whatever Dr. Masters has chosen to write about" forum). It's certainly not a religious forum, and it's only a political forum insofar as discussing solutions for avoiding catastrophic climate change goes against the political ideologies of some forum members, so they drag politics into it.

The thing is, some people don't like what science is telling them--that is, that we humans are disrupting our environment at an increasing pace. So rather than deal with the scientific facts and move onto discussing ways we can keep from rendering that environment completely unlivable, they instead "kill the messenger", so to speak, and simply pretend that there is no disruption, or that we're not causing it, or that it's not so bad, and so on. It's an unfortunate byproduct of sub-par journalism that so many otherwise intelligent people have failed to grasp the true consequences of what's happening--but that doesn't and won't make those consequences any less devastating.


kinda like cherry picking information in the cause???
1112. Grothar
According to recent medical research;

"Banging your head against a wall uses 150 calories an hour."

Just wanted you to know, since reading the blog this morning, I have lost 23 pounds.........
1113. ncstorm
Just to refresh those coming in for the first time and rearing back from all the hot air on the blog, it seems Angela gave the green light for politics to be discussed on the blog..


1115. sar2401
Quoting yoboi:


it's def been hot and humid here past few days wonder how much rain the front will bring...cool weather meeting warm sure some severe storms might show up...


The SPC has the area from IL through Ohio and down to northern MS and AL in the slight risk area today. Further south, we may get a few strong to severe storms tomorrow afternoon. It will sure be nice to see highs only in the mid-80's and lows in te low 60's though. It hasn't been that low in central AL since Memorial Day. A long, hot summer for sure.
Quoting nyhurhunter:
It seems that the models they use are more accurate for the North atlantic and adjecent areas, but as you can see in the diagrams in that article the pacific was also affected, but as they say in the article, the models are more north atlantic based. The reality is that the climate is changing, but to say it can only be caused by one thing(humans) seems irresponsible to me, knowing that all we have to compare with are models. Which we know are not nearly always accurate. Furthermore, even if the "greenhouse effect is responsible, how do we know that all that CO2 came from humans,it could have come from various other sources. Im not saying that you are wrong, you are not. Im just saying that without questions there would be no science.


One line in that is modeling. It only goes back 1500 years because of the physical evidence gathered. Scroll down for the maps of what was gathered.

There is other studies that are more recent, even this summer. As the AMO has gone very positive it's given us a first hand look at how things went down during that medieval period...ice getting swept out, the warm currents around Greenland.

Greenhouse effect is very repeatable using chemistry. We know exactly how many moles of heat each chemical compound holds. We also know what we dig up & burn. There is also some cutting edge satelittes that can watch & count it as it rises from areas of rediculous releases. The new Japanese one caught this out west.. Tenting houses for termites & using sulfuryl fluoride.

Kilogram for kilogram, sulfuryl fluoride is about 4,000 times more efficient than carbon dioxide at trapping heat, though much less of it exists in the atmosphere.

Its climate impact in California each year equals that of carbon dioxide emitted from about 1 million vehicles. About 60 percent of the world’s sulfuryl fluoride use occurs in California.

Sulfuryl fluoride blocks a wavelength of heat that otherwise could easily escape the Earth, the scientists said. Carbon dioxide blocks a different wavelength, trapping heat near the surface.


“The only place where the planet is able to emit heat that escapes the atmosphere is in the region that sulfuryl fluoride blocks,” said Blake, chemistry professor. “If we put something with this blocking effect in that area, then we’re in trouble – and we are putting something in there.”

The chemists worry that emissions will increase as new uses are found for sulfuryl fluoride – especially given the ban of methyl bromide, an ozone-depleting pesticide regulated under the Montreal Protocol. Sulfuryl fluoride emissions are not regulated, though officials do consider it a toxic contaminant.



At some point you've got to stop questioning everything & learn enough to ask the right questions...


sorry to be off topic
Ive always wondered about the humans disrupting the world theory.
Sure we are doing that somewhat, but say in places where it says "dont spit on the ground, dont walk in the woods", are we humans not "animals", a part of nature, why cant we at least do normal things in nature, i can see how littering hurts, but as to "disturbing the normal part of nature", by walking in it etc....

I dont think any life form in charge at any time ( dinosaurs for example) were so removed from the rest of the world, yet we as humans are so trying to stay far away from nature, when we could still be apart of it, while still caring for it.

It would be fun to explore OFF a trail once in a while, and just look around....without littering or anything, what kind of creature is a human that we shouldt walk or talk there?
1119. sar2401
Quoting ncstorm:
Just to refresh those coming in for the first time and rearing back from all the hot air on the blog, it seems Angela gave the green light for politics to be discussed on the blog..



That's not quite true. She stated that political issues as they are direcly related to climate change and kept civil were acceptable. She said nothing about political campaigning. There's a difference.


24 hrs
1122. Grothar
WEATHER
1125. yoboi
Quoting Kumo:


I really think that the book of Revelation and other prophetic works were meant to serve as a warning of what could potentially happen if we make the wrong choices.

I really don't think God (regardless of how anyone personally sees him, through Christianity, Islam, Judaism, etc.) would rather us to just sit back and let end of the world prophecy to "just happen".

While prayer and meditation are healthy, these practices won't fix the damage that humans have caused to this world.

We've got well documented scientific evidence and data that humans are the chief cause of this accelerated global warming.

Folks need to start putting pressure on both elected officials to institute a "Carbon Tax". Revenue could go into production of affordable bioplastic materials that absorb CO2.

Link

This would allow us more time to cheapen the cost of alternative fuels and technology, while making a huge impact in returning atmospheric CO2 to pre-industrial levels.

Jesus, Muhammad, and Buddha were great men of even greater action, I am pretty sure they won't mind if we begin taking the steps needed to save our planet. It would not surprise me if we did them proud by being a little more proactive.



carbon tax??? more taxes that's all we need....if they did create a carbon tax there would be so many loopholes....and the money generated would go to foolish spending....we are 16 trillion dollars in debt
We'll never get a new blog as long as we keep blogging about GW and politics - playing Doc's hand.
1127. bappit
Quoting Skyepony:
At some point you've got to stop questioning everything & learn enough to ask the right questions...
OK...here's a weather related flash for y'all:

I'll pay someone $100 to come over and wash my boat tomorrow....$150 if they wear a bikini....$200 if the person wearing the bikini is not Neapolitan...or Grothar....
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Quoting mcluvincane:


Obama= iran gets a nuke


Richard Prior was a pretty smart man when it came to politics.



I'm Jewish, my grandmother lives in Jerusalem. I have deep worries that iran will have a nuke soon. We must stop them at all cost
1134. sar2401
Quoting Grothar:
According to recent medical research;

"Banging your head against a wall uses 150 calories an hour."

Just wanted you to know, since reading the blog this morning, I have lost 23 pounds.........


Gro, the knots on your head must be huge. :) It was much better last night. I sure hope a new blog gets posted pretty quick.
1135. ncstorm
Quoting sar2401:

That's not quite true. She stated that political issues as they are direcly related to climate change and kept civil were acceptable. She said nothing about political campaigning. There's a difference.


yeah good luck with that!

yall do know this blog is up through the weekend..LOL..what a hot mess! Im out till later..
Since this is now Foxnews and CNN blog site.. all I have to say is this... you get 4 years to do something in office.. I don't care what side you are.. republican or democrate... it's not about your side.. it's about what is right for this country.. Obama had 4 years to do something.. and he's done almost nothing outside of giving the go-ahead to get OBL. The unemployment rate is higher.. the Deficit (that he said he would get into the surplus after 4 years) is the worst ever. He cut military spending.. cut funds to Nasa.. said No to the pipleline with Canada... I can go on and on. I'm independent.. but I vote for President on what he has done.. and he's done 90% bad or nothing. Lets see what Romney has.. if he can't do it in 4 years.. we elect another in 2016. Don't think of it as "if your life is better than 4 years ago" think of it as "is the country better than 4 years ago" it's not about you.. it's about the country.. and it continues to get worse.
Now back to Weather!
Quoting Grothar:
According to recent medical research;

"Banging your head against a wall uses 150 calories an hour."

Just wanted you to know, since reading the blog this morning, I have lost 23 pounds.........



Why am i spending my lunchtime on here?
Quoting Grothar:
According to recent medical research;

"Banging your head against a wall uses 150 calories an hour."

Just wanted you to know, since reading the blog this morning, I have lost 23 pounds.........


They're coming to take me away, Ha-ha
They're coming to take me away, Ho-ho
Hee-hee-haa-haa
To the funny farm
Where life is beautiful all the time
And I'll be happy to see those
Nice young men in their clean white coats and
They're coming to take me away, ha-ha!
Quoting mcluvincane:


I'm Jewish, my grandmother lives in Jerusalem. I have deep worries that iran will have a nuke soon. We must stop them at all cost


What about the other 50 countries that possess a nuclear weapon/s? Remind me again of which country is the ONLY country to use one on anther foe?

I understand your concern about Iran with respect to your family but I would think she would have far bigger problems that just a nuke from Iran. Those countries have been fighting for 2,000 years and its not going to stop this generation either.


at 120 hrs it's ZZZZzzzzzzz........

Quoting Kumo:


I really think that the book of Revelation and other prophetic works were meant to serve as a warning of what could potentially happen if we make the wrong choices.

I really don't think God (regardless of how anyone personally sees him, through Christianity, Islam, Judaism, etc.) would rather us to just sit back and let end of the world prophecy to "just happen".

While prayer and meditation are healthy, these practices won't fix the damage that humans have caused to this world.

We've got well documented scientific evidence and data that humans are the chief cause of this accelerated global warming.

Folks need to start putting pressure on both elected officials to institute a "Carbon Tax". Revenue could go into production of affordable bioplastic materials that absorb CO2.

Link

This would allow us more time to cheapen the cost of alternative fuels and technology, while making a huge impact in returning atmospheric CO2 to pre-industrial levels.

Jesus, Muhammad, and Buddha were great men of even greater action, I am pretty sure they won't mind if we begin taking the steps needed to save our planet. It would not surprise me if we did them proud by being a little more proactive.



I'm sorry, but Muhammad was not a "Great Man" unless you measure "Greatness" in the same sense as Genghis Khan. Forced marriages and conversion at the point of a sword does not make somebody "great". It makes them a monster.


As for Jesus, there are absolutely no records of him participating in physical violence, except on one or two occasions in which he reportedly chased the animals and the hypocritical, corrupt priesthood and money changers out of the temple complex with a whip. I think, given the text, just about everyone would agree it was the right thing to do.

Muhammad and his followers killed Christians and Jews whenever they encountered them, almost without fail.

How can you put him in a group with Jesus as a "Great Man"?

That's ridiculous.
Quoting ILwthrfan:


What about the other 50 countries that possess a nuclear weapon/s? Remind me again of which country is the ONLY country to use one on anther foe?



That was once with the first weapon in a giant war.
No garuntees it wouldnt happen in a WWIII if hell broke loose.


But what does that have to do with weather or climate?
1146. sar2401
Quoting presslord:
OK...here's a weather related flash for y'all:

I'll pay someone $100 to come over and wash my boat tomorrow....$150 if they wear a bikini....$200 if the person wearing the bikini is not Neapolitan...or Grothar....


Gro can't do it. He's unconscious from banging his head against the wall. :)


nothing thru 168 hrs...... 53 days until the election... any idea what this where this blog will be?
Quoting mcluvincane:


I'm Jewish, my grandmother lives in Jerusalem. I have deep worries that iran will have a nuke soon. We must stop them at all cost


i believe to stop iran from aquiring nukes
we must ensure that no other nation has nukes

how can you deny something that is so bad to one
if another already has them

if war is to come to iran
it will be mankinds final mistake
Quoting ILwthrfan:


What about the other 50 countries that possess a nuclear weapon/s? Remind me again of which country is the ONLY country to use one on anther foe?


Ummm... the other 50 hasn't said the want to blow Israel off the map
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1151. MTWX
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



Why am i spending my lunchtime on here?


Comic relief.... That's why I'm here today...
Quoting seminolesfan:
Just goes to show how intertwined the whole GW idea is with religion and politics. Because the theory is based on beliefs not hard science, just like the other two. There never will be a consensus on any of the three. Just people thinking everyone else is wrong/lying/stupid when they hold the opposing belief. Nothing will be changed...

Nonsense. Opposition to AGW is certainly non-science-based, and frequently religious in nature. However, the science behind AGW is very solid and substantial.
1153. bappit
Quoting Grothar:

That woooooshing sound is the shear.
Quoting mcluvincane:


Obama= iran gets a nuke

Really?

A. Who says?
B. So what if they do?
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



That was once with the first weapon in a giant war.
No garuntees it wouldnt happen in a WWIII if hell broke loose.


But what does that have to do with weather or climate?


Your right politics is a dead street and to each will always have their own. Those line of storms will find a way to miss me again, wonder if the NWS will have back to back busted forecasts. They were calling for 2" of rain today.
Quoting Birthmark:

Nonsense. Opposition to AGW is certainly non-science-based, and frequently religious in nature. However, the science behind AGW is very solid and substantial.
The belief in the science behind AGW is very solid and substantial. FTFY...
Quoting ILwthrfan:


What about the other 50 countries that possess a nuclear weapon/s? Remind me again of which country is the ONLY country to use one on anther foe?



Japan and Germany were planning to deploy a "Dirty Bomb" to the U.S. even earlier than the U.S. bomb developments; they did not yet have the technical skill to make a true nuclear device, but they were TRYING to do so. As I recall, there were problems and the vessel carrying the bomb was later sank. They already had the bomb armed and on the vessel for deployment. I think it was a submarine, but it's been like 2 years since I saw this on the History Channel.


Also, pretty much everyone used WMD in WWI and WWII and nearly every war since then.

Japan was dropping Bubonic Plague and other weaponized disease agents and poisons on China throughout the war.
Quoting Birthmark:

Really?

A. Who says?
B. So what if they do?


Would you have said that about a past fanatic named hitler. Do you remember a guy named Chamberlain?
1159. sar2401
Quoting ncstorm:


yeah good luck with that!

yall do know this blog is up through the weekend..LOL..what a hot mess! Im out till later..

I sure hope you're wrong about that. If you're right, that would give me a lot of time to not be on the computer, so maybe it wouldn't be so bad after all. :)
Quoting RTSplayer:



I'm sorry, but Muhammad was not a "Great Man" unless you measure "Greatness" in the same sense as Genghis Khan. Forced marriages and conversion at the point of a sword does not make somebody "great". It makes them a monster.


As for Jesus, there are absolutely no records of him participating in physical violence, except on one or two occasions in which he reportedly chased the animals and the hypocritical, corrupt priesthood and money changers out of the temple complex with a whip. I think, given the text, just about everyone would agree it was the right thing to do.

Muhammad and his followers killed Christians and Jews whenever they encountered them, almost without fail.

How can you put him in a group with Jesus as a "Great Man"?

That's ridiculous.


Please the story of Lot, then the story of Elisha. Get back to us then...
Quoting Birthmark:

Really?

A. Who says?
B. So what if they do?


Really? Are you ahmadinejad's brother? He's a terrorist. Nukes in a terrorist hands are not good. Think about it
Quoting Pirate999:


Would you have said that about a past fanatic named hitler. Do you remember a guy named Chamberlain?

Godwinned!!!

That answers neither of my questions.
Quoting Birthmark:

Really?

A. Who says?
B. So what if they do?


Really dude? you know if they do...then Isreal hits them.. that starts a War.. and if they don't..Iran will use it against Isreal. Now be smart.. do you really think it's okay for a country to have a Nuke when they say they want to destroy another country off the face of the earth? If this was S Africa getting a nuke.. it wouldn't be that much pressure.. but it's Iran. Wake up
Quoting mcluvincane:


Really? Are you ahmadinejad's brother? He's a terrorist. Nukes in a terrorist hands are not good. Think about it

That looks like an attempt to answer my second question. What terrorist acts has Ahmadinnerjacket committed?

And again, who says he'll get a nuke if Obama is re-elected? He's had four years of Obama...where's his nuke?
Quoting RTSplayer:



Metaphysics is not entirely about faith.

There are certain Metaphysical(beyond physical) things which can be proven logically, even without physical evidence.

If you are talking about the origin of the universe, it is obvious that is both a physical and a metaphysical issue.

Why is it metaphysical? Because you must ask the questions, "Why and how should anything exist at all? Why not nothing?"


Now it is true that some aspects of Metaphysics are "unprovable" or "non-falsifiable," but not being provable does not make a theory false. Not being falsifiable certainly does not make a hypothesis or a spiritual claim false, yet certain things can still be shown to be more likely, or more rational than others.

Examples:

"This sentence is true and unprovable."

You cannot prove the sentence false, and there's no reason to doubt it, yet if the sentence really is true, you cannot prove it either, and this has been proven(seriously).


On creation:

Chaos First Argument (Mine originally, I think):


Now you may ask, "What happened 'before' the universe/multi-verse existed? Before laws of physics existed, etc, was there true chaos?"


If there is true chaos, then anything can happen.

If anything can happen then it's possible for an omnipotent being to exist.

If an omnipotent being exists it can then establish order, removing chaos, and prevent the existence of any other omnipotents or omnipotent wannnabes.


Order First:

See the last paragraph above.

By definition, God is fundamental reality, or more scientifically, "The rational principle which governs the universe".



The notion of the "Sky Fairy" God, which atheists mock, actually any manner of "creationism" believes, except in the form of visions or metaphor (for human understanding). There is an ontological barrier between us and the true omnipotence, not that "it" can't do whatever it wants, but that we cannot comprehend the full reality of "it," as one would need to be omnipotent in order to fully comprehend an omnipotent, and since "There can be only one," that comprehension is not ontologically possible.

Similarly, you can never truly understand the universe, because no matter how good your model might be, you would need to know the position of every entity: light, particles, fields, or other energy or matter forms known and unknown, in order to actually test your model. Our absolute knowledge of anything in the universe is nearly zero, as even our best measurements are merely approximations with very large margins of error.



One of the glaring problems of the scientific method is that one time events, such as creation of the universe or any alleged symmetry breaking or any other similar theory, cannot be repeated for testing, and therefore would not be considered "science" in the modern definition, even though they must be some form of physical knowledge.



We can create the conditions of the big bang in a super collider again and again. Seems repeatable to me.
Quoting Birthmark:

That looks like an attempt to answer my second question. What terrorist acts has Ahmadinnerjacket committed?

And again, who says he'll get a nuke if Obama is re-elected? He's had four years of Obama...where's his nuke?


Might be in your back yard if you keep being blind
Quoting scottsvb:


Really dude? you know if they do...then Isreal hits them.. that starts a War.. and if they don't..Iran will use it against Isreal. Now be smart.. do you really think it's okay for a country to have a Nuke when they say they want to destroy another country off the face of the earth? If this was S Africa getting a nuke.. it wouldn't be that much pressure.. but it's Iran. Wake up

I think it is you who needs to wake up. You appear to be having a bad dream.

Israel has a couple of hundred nukes. Even Ahmadinnerjacket can do that math. There will be no attack on Israel. It's sabre-rattling for the locals to cheer about, and that's all.
Quoting seminolesfan:
The belief in the science behind AGW is very solid and substantial. FTFY...

You fixed nothing. You merely stated what you want to be true for what is actually true. Happens all the time among anti-science types.
Heads up Newfoundland..


Quoting seminolesfan:
The belief in the science behind AGW is very solid and substantial. FTFY...


Physically doing some of the experiments in college where you calculate the energy, see how it behaves, what holds it & how..understanding the science & the math..seeing the results chemistry can bring forth with your own hands & eyes.. That makes my belief in the science behind AGW solid & substantial.
Quoting Birthmark:

I think it is you who needs to wake up. You appear to be having a bad dream.

Israel has a couple of hundred nukes. Even Ahmadinnerjacket can do that math. There will be no attack on Israel. It's sabre-rattling for the locals to cheer about, and that's all.


ran could care less about dying. It's all for Allah. They have the same mentality as a suicide bomber.
Quoting mcluvincane:


Might be in your back yard if you keep being blind

Yeah, I'm gonna stick that on my list of things to worry about...oh, right behind Sasquatch with a hand grenade. Yes, that's about where it belongs.

Name me one nation in the history of the world that voluntarily committed suicide. Because you are asking people to believe that Iran will do just that.

It's silly.
Quoting mcluvincane:


ran could care less about dying. It's all for Allah. They have the same mentality as a suicide bomber.

Says who and on the basis of what evidence?
1174. atl134
Quoting VINNY04:
almost as funny as Clinton saying that the country is in better shape then it was 4 years ago.


August 2008: -274k jobs
August 2012: +96k jobs

I'd rather the economy be in rehab than in the shock trauma unit.

Anyway...

as for Leslie and Michael, the NHC track seem to have them holding a convention outside Newfoundland on Wednesday. I have to think there's a huge margin of error on that just because of storms being so close to each other. If Michael doesn't turn east fast enough to give some space that's gotta create problems for Newfoundland with Leslie.
1175. Kumo
Quoting yoboi:



carbon tax??? more taxes that's all we need....if they did create a carbon tax there would be so many loopholes....and the money generated would go to foolish spending....we are 16 trillion dollars in debt


Any mandate would have to be carefully worded to limit such loopholes and there would need to be someone to closely monitor and strictly limit how revenue from a carbon tax is spent. This is not something we should just make a half-ass attempt at integrating within our excessive government, this is something that we need to take very seriously.

Completely agree with you on the 16 Trillion, and the 1+ Trillion we are adding to that every year, under the past two administrations, government has gotten too big. I can think of several ridiculous taxes that need to be either cut or eliminated. (Alcohol, Tobacco, OBAMACARE, etc.)

There's a silver lining to investing in atmospheric CO2 extraction, namely in the amount of jobs that can be created and the benefit to our economy. Best part of it is that we won't have to make immediate and drastic changes to our modern lifestyles in order to begin cleaning up the mess we've made.
1176. intampa
yall might as well give up the global warming argument. remember you are trying to talk to people who believe the earth is about 10000 yrs old, man and dinosaurs walked the earth together and above all there god is the absolute truth and infallible. no matter how much evidence is presented there god will always be infallable so give it up and they will shut up and we can get back to watching the storms and reading everyones comments about storms and watching all the neat graphics people post.
1177. Kumo
Quoting RTSplayer:



I'm sorry, but Muhammad was not a "Great Man" unless you measure "Greatness" in the same sense as Genghis Khan. Forced marriages and conversion at the point of a sword does not make somebody "great". It makes them a monster.


As for Jesus, there are absolutely no records of him participating in physical violence, except on one or two occasions in which he reportedly chased the animals and the hypocritical, corrupt priesthood and money changers out of the temple complex with a whip. I think, given the text, just about everyone would agree it was the right thing to do.

Muhammad and his followers killed Christians and Jews whenever they encountered them, almost without fail.

How can you put him in a group with Jesus as a "Great Man"?

That's ridiculous.


"Great" as in men that have made impacts on humanity and religion that are still relevant in the modern world today.

I am not here for an extensive religious debate nor to condemn any single religion for the mistakes of its followers and leaders (personally it is none of my business how other people choose to live their spiritual lives), but no religion is without blood on it's hands.
Oh my, this all took a fascinating turn today. It's a shame, because I thought some of the discussion last night was pretty interesting and mostly pretty thoughtful.

Maybe these things can only go so long or have so many participants before they're bound to turn into something akin to the monty python "argument" sketch.
1179. CJ5
Quoting RTSplayer:


Wow. You think Obama is radical?

Look who Romney has chosen as his running mate?!

Paul Ryan.

This guy is so anti-middle class it's ridiculous (forget his claims and look at his policy proposals).

As for "lower class," I think this guy probably pisses in their drinking water for S&Gs...


At least he's not QUITE as bad as Ron Paul was. Ron Paul destroyed his entire campaign with a single EVIL, heartless comment, and sadly the entire republican/Tea Party audience shouted "YEEEEAAAH," in agreement. He as much as said "tough luck" to the hypothetical example of a 30yr patient who needed a life-saving proceedure, but didn't have insurance.

"Out of the abundance of the heart the mouth speaks."


They should have kicked him off the podium immediately, but the audience was equally evil and heartless.


These guys are the exact opposite of the Parable of the "Good Samaritan," which is ironic because they claim to be in support of evangelicals, and for some reason most conservative "Christians" of many movements support these guys.

Such people should be banned from even running for office in this country, and that's what Romney has for a running mate. Like I said, Paul Ryan isn't QUITE as bad as Ron Paul, but then again, he maybe was more fortunate and didn't get "caught" in such a blatantly "honest" evil remark.


The "Tea Party" and Republicans don't care about you or me, all they care about is making it easier for the top 10% to stay in wealth and power, and screw everyone else.


None of this comment has any merit. It is just talking points. Both parties have issues but the left candidate is doing more than branding socialism as acceptable.
Quoting CJ5:


None of this comment has any merit. It is just talking points. Both parties have issues but the left candidate is doing more than branding socialism as acceptable.

Nonsense. Politically, Obama is nearly indistinguishable from Bush or Romney. They all follow the same failed economic principles. Obama is nowhere near socialism.
1181. CJ5
Quoting Birthmark:

Nonsense. Politically, Obama is nearly indistinguishable from Bush or Romney. They all follow the same failed economic principles. Obama is nowhere near socialism.


As I stated, there are some similarities between the parties but none can compare to the current slate of liberals. Yes, Obama is a socialist. His idols where socialists, his ideals are socialist and his goal is socialism. He said it in his own book and his policies reflect as much. Those who think otherwise are blinded by the brand. I know people don't want to hear it. Did you watch the convention? It was all about free stuff and government programs. How do the left believe we are going to pay for all of it?

Did you know in 1980 our federal government's total spending was 947 billion dollars. Do you know what we will spend on education alone in 2012? 941 billion. Does the education rank of student reflect the money spent? No. What is one of the talking points of the Dems? More money for education. It is laughable!
I wish Dr Masters would do a new tropics blog...and maybe the blog get back to regular tropics and weather. I knew when I saw the blog was about icecap melting, it was opening a can of worms, that seems to have turned into a can of snakes. As someone else stated, no one on either side is going to convince the other, and especially not through comments on here. Most don't want to see the other side or agree with them, so it's futile, especially on this blog.

New blog pleeeease Dr!
Religion...politics...more attitude polarization. Well, I'm out.

Luau time!



Quoting CJ5:


As I stated, there are some similarities between the parties but none can compare to the current slate of liberals. Yes, Obama is a socialist. His idols where socialists, his ideals are socialist and his goal is socialism. He said it in his own book and his policies reflect as much. Those who think otherwise are blinded by the brand. I know people don't want to hear it. Did you watch the convention? It was all about free stuff and government programs. How do the left believe we are going to pay for all of it?

Did you know in 1980 our federal government's total spending was 947 billion dollars. Do you know what we will spend on education alone in 2012? 941 billion. Does the education rank of student reflect the money spent? No. What is one of the talking points of the Dems? More money for education. It is laughable!

What socialist policies would those be, exactly? The one where he hands no strings attached cash to the banks that got us into this mess? lol