Greenland experiences melting over 97% of its area in mid-July

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 25, 2012

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Son Nghiem of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, CA, was analyzing radar data from the Indian Space Research Organization's Oceansat-2 satellite last week when he noticed that 97% of Greenland appeared to have undergone surface melting on July 12--an event completely unprecedented in 30 years of satellite measurements. In a July 24 press release from NASA, Nghiem said, "This was so extraordinary that at first I questioned the result: was this real or was it due to a data error?" Multiple satellite data sets confirmed the remarkable event, though. Melt maps derived from three different satellites showed that on July 8, about 40 percent of the ice sheet's surface had melted, as a strong ridge of high pressure set up over Greenland. By July 12, the melting had expanded to cover 97% of Greenland. As I blogged about last week, temperatures at at the top of the Greenland Ice Sheet, 10,551 feet (3216 meters) above sea level, and 415 miles (670 km) north of the Arctic Circle, had risen above the freezing mark four times in the 12-year span 2000 - 2011. But in mid-July 2012, temperatures eclipsed the freezing mark on five days, including four days in a row from July 11 - 14. Interestingly, ice core records show that in 1889, a similar pronounced melt event occurred at the top of the Greenland Ice Sheet, and such events occur naturally about every 150 years. "But if we continue to observe melting events like this in upcoming years, it will be worrisome," said Lora Koenig, a NASA/Goddard glaciologist and a member of the research team analyzing the satellite data. Such an event could occur as early as this weekend: the latest wunderground forecast for the Greenland Summit calls for above-freezing temperatures to return again by Saturday through Tuesday, with a high of 36°F (2°C) on Tuesday. This would come close to the record warm temperature at Summit of 3.6°C set just two weeks ago. Exceptionally warm temperatures in Greenland this July have been made more likely by the fact that Arctic sea ice area has been at record low levels so far this month. Furthermore, the Greenland Ice Sheet has become darker this July than at any point since satellite measurements began (Figure 2), allowing Greenland to absorb more solar energy and heat up.


Figure 1. Extent of surface melt over Greenland's ice sheet on July 8 (left) and July 12 (right). Measurements from three satellites showed that on July 8, about 40 percent of the ice sheet had undergone thawing at or near the surface. In just a few days, the melting had dramatically accelerated and an estimated 97 percent of the ice sheet surface had thawed by July 12. Image credit: NASA.



Figure 2. The albedo (reflectivity) of the Greenland Ice Sheet at its highest elevations (2,500 - 3,200 meters, or 8,200 - 10,500 feet) has steadily decreased in recent years as the ice has darkened due to increased melting and dark soot being deposited on the ice from air pollution. This July, the high elevations of Greenland were the darkest on record, which helped contribute to the record warm temperatures observed at the Greenland Summit. Image credit: Dr. Jason Box, Ohio State University.


Video 1. Melt water from the record July temperatures in Greenland fed the raging Watson River, which smashed two bridges connecting the north and south of Kangerlussuaq (Sønder Strømfjord), a small settlement in southwestern Greenland. The flow rate of 3.5 million liters/sec was almost double the previous record flow rate.

Greenland's Petermann Glacier
Greenland's glaciers have seen significant changes in recent years, as they respond to warmer air and water temperatures. Northwest Greenland's Petermann Glacier has seen two massive calving events in the past two years, though it is uncertain if these events were caused by the warming climate. The most recent event came on July 16, 2012, when the glacier calved a 46 square-mile iceberg two times the size of Manhattan. The same glacier calved an iceberg twice as big back on August 4, 2010--the largest iceberg observed in the Arctic since 1962. The freshwater stored in that ice island could have kept the Delaware or Hudson rivers flowing for more than two years, or kept all U.S. public tap water flowing for 120 days. According to a university press release by Andreas Muenchow, associate professor of physical ocean science and engineering at the University of Delaware's College of Earth, Ocean, and Environment, “While the size is not as spectacular as it was in 2010, the fact that it follows so closely to the 2010 event brings the glacier’s terminus to a location where it has not been for at least 150 years. Northwest Greenland and northeast Canada are warming more than five times faster than the rest of the world, but the observed warming is not proof that the diminishing ice shelf is caused by this, because air temperatures have little effect on this glacier; ocean temperatures do, and our ocean temperature time series are only five to eight years long — too short to establish a robust warming signal.”


Figure 3. The massive 46 square-mile iceberg two times the size of Manhattan that calved from Greenland's Petermann Glacier on July 16, 2012, as seen on July 21, 2012, using MODIS satellite imagery. Image credit: NASA.

Related posts
Record warmth at the top of the Greenland Ice Sheet (July 18, 2012)
Unprecedented May heat in Greenland; update on 2011 Greenland ice melt
Greenland update for 2010: record melting and a massive calving event

Jeff Masters

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1186. CJ5
4:35 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
What a win-win that would be for Mega Corporations, huh? ExxonMobil can render the world unlivable, then Monsanto can save the day by warping nature through GMOs! We can pay for unhealthy air and water--then we can pay again for intentionally mutant veggies from a lab. I can barely wait! :-\

On a larger point: the persistent belief that the technology that got us into this mess will get us out of it falls squarely in the realm of "magical thinking".


Well, if you want to give up on technology then why are you so concerned with global warming? Technology is the ONLY thing that is going to make this planet sustainable for the population in the future. If you don't want or believe that, then the next best alternative is for GW to destroy most of the population and those that live can go back to living in caves and grass huts!
Member Since: July 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1755
1185. pcola57
2:27 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Quoting pcola57:
The African waves are lining up...
Not wanting to be an alarmist but they are Huge this year..

Satallite:Afrika yr.no.


Thanks for the update Dr. Masters..
This drought is very serious indeed..
I wondered last night and posted on the blog about the Jet Steam and it's influence concerning the drought..
Chicklit and I reasearch as best we could and really could not come up with a good link for it..
WU has a daily graphic but it's not very good (sorry WU)..
Anyone have a better time lapseto current and forecasted Link out out there?
TIA.. :)
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6878
1184. Some1Has2BtheRookie
2:25 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Deleted
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4755
1183. Neapolitan
2:25 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Quoting yoboi:


did not say the veggies would be good for ya....they are altering seeds to grow in almost any condition...
Vegetable matter grows via photosynthesis, of course, a process in which sunlight is converted into chemical energy that feeds plants. Through evolution, nature has optimized this process over a period of many millions of years. Now, a profit-over-people corporation such as Monsanto may come along with promises that their labs have created plants that create more chemical energy from the same amount of sunlight, which to many is the equivalent of a weightlifter bulking up on artificial steroids.

First, I don't want to eat any such food. Nor do I want my children, their children, or anyone I care about eating it.

Second, Monsanto is infamous for genetically engineering the seeds they sell to be non-reproductive. IOW, the melon, tomato, and apple seeds they sell are sterile, and can't be used to grow more crops; a farmer--or someone trying to live off the land in the newly agricultural region of Northern Alaska--will have to buy seeds from them every year. Isn't that great?

Third, as with the oil situation, this is putting entirely too much power into the hands of an industry that has already proven that humans count less than dollars.

I could go on, but I won't. The bottom line is, bad all the way around. Wouldn't it be better to just kick our fossil fuel habit as quickly as possible?
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13600
1182. hydrus
2:18 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:


A Florida cross tracker as Baha said yesterday?
Too far out, but it should be interesting. It will probably develop into a named system.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21735
1181. StormTracker2K
2:17 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
..huh?


next week there are signs we may have something to track later in the week.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
1180. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:16 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1179. weathermanwannabe
2:16 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Quoting pcola57:
The African waves are lining up...
Not wanting to be an alarmist but they are Huge this year..

Satallite:Afrika yr.no.


Wait until you see the size of the ones that start to roll out in late August................:)
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9326
1178. GTcooliebai
2:15 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
1177. StormTracker2K
2:15 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Quoting hydrus:


A Florida cross tracker as Baha said yesterday?
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
1176. StormTracker2K
2:14 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Quoting hydrus:
A long way out, but it is interesting. Shows a low nearing Florida.


Yeah I saw that this morning. Very interesting and one we need to watch as we head into next week.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
1175. pcola57
2:13 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
The African waves are lining up...
Not wanting to be an alarmist but they are Huge this year..

Satallite:Afrika yr.no.
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6878
1174. ILwthrfan
2:12 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Quoting dabirds:
Hey ILwthr, was sad watching those reds/yellows change to light green or poof this a.m. Kind of expected it though. Looking at those updated drought maps, it appears we are going to challenge/break another '34 record - the bad one - sooner than I expected.


Yes it's bad. I see that your area just broke the all-time number of days above 105 for a single season on July 25th. Ridiculous. Statistics for the St. Louis area. Hopefully this will change for the good, but CPC says three more months of historical heat.


> 105 degrees
1. 11x's - 2012*
2. 10x's - 1934
3. 8x's - 1936
4. 6x's - 1930
5. 5x's - 1954/1901
7. 4x's - 1980/1966
9. 2x's - 1881


> 100 degrees
1. 37x's - 1936
2. 29x's - 1934
3. 22x's - 1954
4. 21x's - 1930
5. 18x's -1980/1881
7. 16x's - 2012*
8. 15x's - 2011/1953/1901
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1535
1173. yoboi
2:11 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


All of the warming events mentioned are regional and not global warming events. As I stated yesterday, their intent is to make the argument seem reasonable. Through the use of smoke and mirrors, this is another misrepresentation and a misdirection of the facts. Research the events mentioned and discover it they were truly global, as the author tries to lead you to believe, or if they were regional. Also, know the source of the information. The author of this article: A geologist that has worked for the petroleum industry for the past 10 years. I most appreciate his capabilities - "The ability to research a topic goes hand in hand with strong problem solving ability. My IT skills are a product of a keen research capability, while my web site is a testament to my problem solving skills." - Wow! Just wow! His website is a testament to his problem solving skills??? What problems has he solved??? Why did he not just say that his skill set trumps the thousands of climatologists that have a PhD in climatology and 20, 30, 40 years or more of study in their field of expertise? OK, I do admit that all of this is circumstantial evidence that this author is biased towards the message of the petroleum industry. Do some research and discover for yourself what his intents are.

Here is some more from his own mouth - "Welcome to the apologetics part of my site where I discuss some of my own opinions concerning scientific issues of interest to the public." - Are you impressed yet? He is going to give us his opinions of the scientific issues. Why not use the data that the science is based on????

Look, we all know that you can do a Google search and find information that supports your way of thinking. The information is useless unless it can be fully supported by the facts. His "warming" periods throughout man's history were REGIONAL events and not GLOBAL events. He starts off his conversation with a deception! .... Geeeeeeeeeeze!!!


i have a question, when doing a global study do you use any regional data ??? i really don't know the answer..
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2388
1172. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:11 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
..hmmm all thru the earths history it has gone from warm to cold, over and over again, the only difference in THIS change..is that WE are here to witness it happening in OUR time..Mother earth is Laughing at us
yes it has happen correct but its happening faster and faster then ever before and it will continue to become faster and faster than before
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
1171. LargoFl
2:09 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Humans need to adapt to the changing weather patterns just as the animals and insects do..trouble is we are so set in our ways..hmmm maybe like the dinosaurs were?...and where..are THEY now?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40899
1170. LargoFl
2:07 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


All of the warming events mentioned are regional and not global warming events. As I stated yesterday, their intent is to make the argument seem reasonable. Through the use of smoke and mirrors, this is another misrepresentation and a misdirection of the facts. Research the events mentioned and discover it they were truly global, as the author tries to lead you to believe, or if they were regional. Also, know the source of the information. The author of this article: A geologist that has worked for the petroleum industry for the past 10 years. I most appreciate his capabilities - "The ability to research a topic goes hand in hand with strong problem solving ability. My IT skills are a product of a keen research capability, while my web site is a testament to my problem solving skills." - Wow! Just wow! His website is a testament to his problem solving skills??? What problems has he solved??? Why did he not just say that his skill set trumps the thousands of climatologists that have a PhD in climatology and 20, 30, 40 years or more of study in their field of expertise? OK, I do admit that all of this is circumstantial evidence that this author is biased towards the message of the petroleum industry. Do some research and discover for yourself what his intents are.

Here is some more from his own mouth - "Welcome to the apologetics part of my site where I discuss some of my own opinions concerning scientific issues of interest to the public." - Are you impressed yet? He is going to give us his opinions of the scientific issues. Why not use the data that the science is based on????

Look, we all know that you can do a Google search and find information that supports your way of thinking. The information is useless unless it can be fully supported by the facts. His "warming" periods throughout man's history were REGIONAL events and not GLOBAL events. He starts off his conversation with a deception! .... Geeeeeeeeeeze!!!
..hmmm all thru the earths history it has gone from warm to cold, over and over again, the only difference in THIS change..is that WE are here to witness it happening in OUR time..Mother earth is Laughing at us
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40899
1169. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:05 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
What a win-win that would be for Mega Corporations, huh? ExxonMobil can render the world unlivable, then Monsanto can save the day by warping nature through GMOs! We can pay for unhealthy air and water--then we can pay again for intentionally mutant veggies from a lab. I can barely wait! :-\

On a larger point: the persistent belief that the technology that got us into this mess will get us out of it falls squarely in the realm of "magical thinking".
they want to see magic i suggest they watch greenland the next eight days
and ice will disappear right before their eyes
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
1168. hydrus
2:05 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21735
1167. LargoFl
2:04 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40899
1166. Some1Has2BtheRookie
2:04 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Deleted
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4755
1165. muddertracker
2:04 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Quoting pcola57:


Bathwater..LOL


For sure. We definitely need something in there to expend some of that energy...just think if nothing forms in (or gets there) until mid September? Ugh!
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2351
1164. yoboi
2:03 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
What a win-win that would be for Mega Corporations, huh? ExxonMobil can render the world unlivable, then Monsanto can save the day by warping nature through GMOs! We can pay for unhealthy air and water--then we can pay again for intentionally mutant veggies from a lab. I can barely wait! :-\

On a larger point: the persistent belief that the technology that got us into this mess will get us out of it falls squarely in the realm of "magical thinking".


did not say the veggies would be good for ya....they are altering seeds to grow in almost any condition...
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2388
1163. hydrus
2:01 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
A long way out, but it is interesting. Shows a low nearing Florida.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21735
1162. NSB207
2:01 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Seems we in Florida are entering the doldrum month of August. Ocean and land temps closer and seabreeze minimal.

I remember growing up in Miami with out A/C
A fan did a pretty good job!
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 32
1161. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:00 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
1160. dabirds
2:00 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Hey ILwthr, was sad watching those reds/yellows change to light green or poof this a.m. Kind of expected it though. Looking at those updated drought maps, it appears we are going to challenge/break another '34 record - the bad one - sooner than I expected.
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 772
1159. Neapolitan
2:00 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Quoting yoboi:



not really a true statement, they now have genetic seeds that don't require that much sunlight to grow and produce a larger harvest...
What a win-win that would be for Mega Corporations, huh? ExxonMobil can render the world unlivable, then Monsanto can save the day by warping nature through GMOs! We can pay for unhealthy air and water--then we can pay again for intentionally mutant veggies from a lab. I can barely wait! :-\

On a larger point: the persistent belief that the technology that got us into this mess will get us out of it falls squarely in the realm of "magical thinking".
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13600
1158. LargoFl
1:59 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
.............................watch the swirl develop at the end of the run,maybe this is what they are watching for off the coast of new england
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40899
1157. goosegirl1
1:58 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:
the SPC added a little area near GA, FL and included all of VA..I knew it was going to expand some further down south..



The moderate risk was pushed south to my area- some the teenage boys will be jealous :) but the shine is wearing off for me.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1234
1156. muddertracker
1:58 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
...........................................wow just look at the gulf water temps..its amazing nothing is trying to form out there


Lots of fuel...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2351
1155. LargoFl
1:56 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
....looking up at around ny or mass..see the blue watch...are they thinking whatever that is hitting the northeast..Might develop out in the atlantic at some point?..that is NOT 98L
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40899
1154. LargoFl
1:53 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Quoting pcola57:


Yes they have been there for quite a few days..
wish they would make up their mind and go "somewhere"..LOL.. :)
..they might just come onshore again today..something to watch when the sea breeze starts up
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40899
1153. pcola57
1:52 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
...........................................wow just look at the gulf water temps..its amazing nothing is trying to form out there


Bathwater..LOL
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6878
1152. ncstorm
1:52 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
the SPC added a little area near GA, FL and included all of VA..I knew it was going to expand some further down south..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16030
1151. kwgirl
1:51 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
..Anyone want to discuss tropical weather...Or today's server outbreak?.
Will the outbreak of servers be severe? Sorry, could't contain myself. Good morning all! another hot sticky day in the keys. Luckily no POPS and the wind is calm. Perfect weather for hunting bugs. Have a good day everyone. And those in the anticipated severe weather area, please stay safe.
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
1150. Doxienan
1:51 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
In reply to Neopolitan, I want to point out that in the next decade or two, we might see forms of geoengineering that will whiten the sky, preventing sunlight from reaching the Earth, and thereby reduce further the amount of sun needed to grow crops. Of course, the plan is to cool us down, but it's a catch-22.
Member Since: April 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 53
1149. schwankmoe
1:51 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
The name "Greenland" was a marketing ploy


let's be honest, if we're going to take the name of a country as 100% indicative of its actual qualities, then north korea is a democracy.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 687
1148. LargoFl
1:51 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
...........................................wow just look at the gulf water temps..its amazing nothing is trying to form out there
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40899
1147. pcola57
1:50 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
.........................................nice line of storms out in the Gulf


Yes they have been there for quite a few days..
wish they would make up their mind and go "somewhere"..LOL.. :)
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6878
1146. islander101010
1:50 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
t.w30w.15n....got.to.watch.this.one.closely...
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4877
1145. LargoFl
1:48 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
.........................................nice line of storms out in the Gulf
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40899
1144. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:48 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
1143. LargoFl
1:46 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Quoting muddertracker:
Weather Statements already up for NY:

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BERGEN...BRONX...FAIRFIELD... HUDSON...KINGS (BROOKLYN)...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)...NORTHERN ESSEX... NORTHERN NASSAU...PASSAIC...QUEENS...ROCKLAND...SUFFOLK AND WESTCHESTER COUNTIES...

AT 843 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OSSINING TO NANUET TO RAMSEY TO 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WEST MILFORD...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OSSINING TO NANUET TO RAMSEY TO WEST MILFORD...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAIN IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. THIS COULD CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.
..good to see they are getting the rains
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40899
1142. ncstorm
1:46 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Quoting hydrus:
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
840 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

VALID 12Z MON JUL 30 2012 - 12Z THU AUG 02 2012


HIGH LATITUDE MID LEVEL VORTICES OVER NRN CANADA WILL CONSOLIDATE
INTO ONE MEAN MID LEVEL LOW AND PERSIST NORTHEAST OF HUDSON BAY
THIS PERIOD WITH A CONTINUATION OF A MID LEVEL BLOCKING RIDGE IN
THE NORTH ATLANTIC ACROSS THE DENMARK STRAIT. NOAM PATTERN
EVOLVES AGAIN INTO THE PERSISTENT EPAC/PAC NORTHWEST TROF WITH
CONTINUED MID LEVEL RIDGING IN THE PLAINS AND ALONG THE ROCKIES
FRONT RANGE WITH AN ERN CONUS TROF THAT MAY EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS
NRN FL
. OVERALL MID LEVEL HTS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
WITH THE ERN CONUS TROF. WELL ABOVE AVG TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THRU
THE PLAINS TO THE WRN MS VALLEY THIS PERIOD.

OVERALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. LARGEST DIFFERENCE IS THE
ECMWF DEEPER AND SLOWER NERN PAC VORTEX APPROACHING THE B.C. COAST
DAY 7 THURS. ALL OTHER GUIDANCE IS WEAKER AND FASTER WITH THIS
FEATURE WITH GOOD ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT WITH THE WEAKER AND FASTER
SOLUTION. UPDATED MORNING HPC PRELIMS BASED ON A BLEND OF GFS AND
ECMWF ENS MEANS THRU THE SEVEN DAY PERIOD.

MONSOONAL PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE FROM THE MEXICAN SIERRA
INTO SWRN CONUS ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SRN EDGE OF
THE WESTERLIES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE.

ATLANTIC AND CARRIBBEAN BASINS CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY UNFAVORABLE
FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD AS SEEN BY VELOCITY POTENTIAL
ANOMALIES WHILE THE WESTERN PACIFIC REMAINS HIGHLY FAVORABLE. AN
EASTERLY WAVE MAY APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLIES TUES/WED WITH A
DECREASING NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVORING THIS THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS AND ENCOUNTERING MORE SHEAR AND LESS MOISTURE LESSENING ITS
CHANCE OF MUCH IMPACT.
ROSENSTEIN






there are so many factors with a trough..will the wave/cyclone be strong enough to feel the effect..the 06z GFS keeps it very weak and heads it west into the GOM..the Euro has a much stronger system and therefore it feels the trough..also you have to factor into the timing of trough and the approaching system..will it be there to pull the system north or will it miss it and oh well, you got a problem on your hands then..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16030
1141. pcola57
1:40 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Good morning WU blogers..
Looks as if a significant high danger of severe weather today for some of us..
Possibly some needed rainfall as well..

Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6878
1140. ILwthrfan
1:38 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
We need something to track..badly.. Hope you get some rain but in a decent way and not a server thunderstorm/hurricane way.Unfortunately our rain has only come from server events this summer...


Yes, could always do without the severe, although to get a real good rain...

We need about 2-4 tropical storms to come out of the GULF and move north to sit and spin. We are already -10 to -15 inches to date across the area.
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1535
1139. washingtonian115
1:38 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Wash115, I think the focus today will be about the severe weather in the NE states as the North Atlantic is relativly quiet.
Yes I know that's what I said inn my post 1115(lol).
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17480
1138. muddertracker
1:36 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Thank goodness .we need the rain.Just not the damage that comes with it.sorry hon!.Just going to have to get use to it.You could recommend her to a place like Washington state where they are known to have cool summers.


yeah...I wish...my brother's a lifer..she goes where he goes..lol She hated Texas, hated Virginia, Really Hated Alabama, hates NY...lol...the only place she really likes is home (S. Korea) and Italy (but they were only there a very short time).
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2351
1137. GeorgiaStormz
1:36 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
1136. Tropicsweatherpr
1:35 PM GMT on July 26, 2012
Wash115, I think the focus today will be about the severe weather in the NE states as the North Atlantic is relativly quiet.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14553

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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