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Arctic sea ice volume now one-fifth its 1979 level

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:52 AM GMT on February 19, 2013

The stunning loss of Arctic sea ice extent in recent years is undeniable--satellite measurements have conclusively shown that half of the Arctic sea ice went missing in September 2012, compared to the average September during 1979 - 2000. But the extent of ice cover is not the best measure of how the fire raging in Earth's attic is affecting sea ice--the total volume of the ice is more important. But up until 2010, we didn't have the measurements needed to say how the total volume of ice in the Arctic might be changing. Scientists relied on the University of Washington PIOMAS model, which suggested that the loss of Arctic sea ice volume during September might be approaching 75% - 80%. The model results were widely criticized by climate change skeptics as being unrealistic. However, in April 2010, a new satellite called Cryostat-2 was launched, which can measure ice volume by beaming pulses of microwave energy off of the ice. With two years of data to Cryosat-2 data to analyze, the results of the PIOMAS model have now been confirmed by a study published on-line in February 2013 in Geophysical Research Letters. In a University of Washington news release, co-author Axel Schweiger said, "people had argued that 75 to 80 percent ice volume loss was too aggressive. What this new paper shows is that our ice loss estimates may have been too conservative, and that the recent decline is possibly more rapid." The U.K.'s Natural Environmental Research Council reported that the team of scientists found that from 2003 to 2012, the volume of Arctic sea ice declined 36% in the autumn and 9% in the winter. The measure of sea ice volume is a good indicator of how the Arctic's most stable, "multi-year" ice is fairing. As the multi-year ice declines, sea ice extent, the total area covered by sea ice, in an "Arctic death spiral". The new study shows that thick, multi-year ice has disappeared in areas north of Greenland, around the Canadian Archipelago, and to the northeast of Svalbard, Norway.


Figure 1. Arctic sea ice volume in thousands of cubic kilometers during the September minimum in 1979 compared to 2012, as estimated by the University of Washington PIOMAS model. Arctic seas ice volume has declined by more than a factor of five. Image credit; Andy Lee Robinson.


Figure 2. The Polar-5 aircraft, carrying the EM instrument that was used to validate Cryosat-2 sea ice thickness measurements, flying over the validation site. Image credit: R. Willatt.

Why care about Arctic sea ice loss?
If you remove an area of sea ice 43% the size of the contiguous U.S. from the ocean, like occurred in September 2012, it is guaranteed to have a significant impact on weather and climate. The extra heat and moisture added to the atmosphere as a result of all that open water over the pole may already be altering jet stream patterns in fall and winter, bringing an increase in extreme weather events. The record sea ice loss in 2012 also contributed to an unprecedented melting event in Greenland. Continued sea ice loss will further increase melting from Greenland, contributing to sea level rise and storm surge damages. Sea ice loss will also continue to crank up the thermostat over Arctic permafrost regions. This will potentially release a significant fraction of the vast amounts of carbon currently locked in the permafrost, further accelerating global warming.

Related Posts
Earth's attic is on fire: Arctic sea ice bottoms out at a new record low (September 2012)
Half of the polar ice cap is missing: Arctic sea ice hits a new record low. September 6, 2012 blog post
Wunderground's Sea Ice page
Arctic Death Spiral Bombshell: CryoSat-2 Confirms Sea Ice Volume Has Collapsed by Joe Romm at climateprogress.org.

Jeff Masters and Angela Fritz

Sea Ice Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting indianrivguy:
anyone remember what we are talking about?

Nope, Not I.
Good morning Mate!

G'evening everyone up over!
After at least an hour of work, I have put together a graph of the number of tornadoes from 2000-2013. 2013 doesn't have a graph, however, due to not even being 2 months into 2013. Click for a bigger image. I had a slight issue on the bottom, as the bars don't start at 900. The numbers are graph is still correct, it just starts a little lower than I intended.


1004. Zappy
Quoting wxchaser97:
After at least an hour of work, I have put together a graph of the number of tornadoes from 2000-2013. 2013 doesn't have a graph, however, due to not even being 2 months into 2013. Click for a bigger image.




Scale is everything... I was confused at first, until I looked left at the scale. Perhaps you should start at 0?
Quoting Zappy:


Scale is everything... I was confused at first, until I looked left at the scale. Perhaps you should start at 0?

Usually I would start at 0, but since no year has a tornado count of less than 900 that is where I started.
Quoting indianrivguy:
Good morning Mate!

G'evening everyone up over!

G'afternoon mate!
Quoting indianrivguy:
anyone remember what we are talking about?


We were talking about how smart and wonderful women are, and about their overall superiority.

I'm sure of it. And you know we Never Forget.
As stated in post #944, portions of Arkansas are expecting well over 1/2" ice accumulation.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
As stated in post #944, portions of Arkansas are expecting well over 1/2" ice accumulation.






when ices gets up too 3/4" what do we call that ???


doom?

i think a town in TX one time got 3/4" of ices i wounder what year that was
Quoting Tazmanian:





when ices gets up too 3/4" what do we call that ???


doom?

i think a town in TX one time got 3/4" of ices i wounder what year that was


I think it would still be called crippling since it is over 1/2", per the bottom graphic.
winter storm 17
xx/xx/xx
Quoting Tazmanian:





when ices gets up too 3/4" what do we call that ???


doom?

i think a town in TX one time got 3/4" of ices i wounder what year that was

We had an incredibly crippling ice storm up here in December of 2008, areas in central/western MA, as well as some other parts of the NE region, received over an inch of ice. It literally shut parts of the state down for weeks. Worcester MA, where this picture was taken, was one of the hardest hit areas:



Hopefully we don't see anything like that tomorrow in AR.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

We had an incredibly crippling ice storm up here in December of 2008, areas in central/western MA, as well as some other parts of the NE region, received over an inch of ice. It literally shut parts of the state down for weeks. Worcester MA, where this picture was taken, was one of the hardest hit areas:



Hopefully we don't see anything like that tomorrow in AR.


I live just west of Worcester and I had no power for 4 days, my sister was out for 6 days and we were among the lucky ones; some people were out for weeks. Luckily none of us were hurt or suffered any great damage to our property.

Hope it went well for you.
Quoting JohnLonergan:


I live just west of Worcester and I had no power for 4 days, my sister was out for 6 days and we were among the lucky ones; some people were out for weeks. Luckily none of us were hurt or suffered any great damage to our property.

Hope it went well for you.

It wasn't bad here, the core of ice was mostly confined to Worcester and west from there, I'm a little further east. We had a major rain event with that storm, followed by a major snow event a week or so later.
Quoting goosegirl1:


We were talking about how smart and wonderful women are, and about their overall superiority.

I'm sure of it. And you know we Never Forget.


Well, that certainly deserves a standing ovation.

1016. ncstorm
Updated QPF map from the HPC

Quoting JohnLonergan:


I live just west of Worcester and I had no power for 4 days, my sister was out for 6 days and we were among the lucky ones; some people were out for weeks. Luckily none of us were hurt or suffered any great damage to our property.

Hope it went well for you.


I was one of those unfortunate ones! I was visiting home (Merrimack Valley) from school and within 30 minutes of getting back from the airport lost power. Out for 12 days. I remember going snowboarding at Crotched Mt. and that area was even worse, absolute destruction of trees everywhere. Needless to say I was happy to get back to Colorado where the Snow Gods had blessed us in Steamboat that year.
BREAKING: First death reported from Winter Storm Q in Oklahoma... RIP
The Weather Channel reports that Q has claimed one life in Oklahoma when an 18 year old boy slid off the road.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

It wasn't bad here, the core of ice was mostly confined to Worcester and west from there, I'm a little further east. We had a major rain event with that storm, followed by a major snow event a week or so later.


Are you farther south and east? We got crushed in Western Essex county.
Sadly, the winter storm in the Midwest right now has claimed a life. 18 year old kid went off the road and died.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Sadly, the winter storm in the Midwest right now has claimed a life. 18 year old kid went off the road and died.

First, it is sad to hear that winter storm Q claimed a life.

Second, that was already posted twice.

And third, you are really stubborn about the naming of winter storms.
Quoting IceCoast:


Are you farther south and east? We got crushed in Western Essex county.

I'm down in SW Norfolk Country, near the NE tip of RI. We mostly just got rain from that storm, about 3.5" of it. The storm was massive, it produced some of the highest liquid precip equivalents I've ever seen up here.
Quoting wxchaser97:

First, it is sad to hear that winter storm Q claimed a life.

Second, that was already posted twice.

And third, you are really stubborn about the naming of winter storms.


1. Yep. Loss of life from a winter storm is tragic.

2. I know, I was just posting what I saw on twitter

3. Yes, yes I am. :)


The graphic shows nine simplified graphs, which essentially illustrates how actual temperature change from roughly the past 100 years relates to scientific predictions of temperature change in scenarios where man is not contributing to global warming and where man is indeed contributing to global warming.

The six graphs that cover six of the seven continents on the planet all show the same thing: observed temperature increased significantly from the past 50 years onward. These changes correlate very well with predictions where man contributes to global warming. Needless to say, predictions which disregard anthropogenic (or manmade) effects point to cooler temperatures in all six continents. The continent that has been spared forceful increases in temperature was Antarctica, the one continent with no permanent residents.

This grim (and hot) state that is anthropogenic global warming is further backed by two additional graphs of temperature anomalies above land and oceans. As the IPCC report says:

"The observed patterns of warming, including greater warming over land than over the ocean, and their changes over time, are only simulated by models that include anthropogenic forcing. The ability of coupled climate models to simulate the observed temperature evolution on each of six continents provides stronger evidence of human influence on climate [...]"
to have my updated map within half an hour

Looks like some elevated convection is forming along the dryline out in Eastern New Mexico ahead of the next round of this winter storm

Dewpoints ahead of the line are near 50, behind, teens

I remember the ice storm of 2008. Southern VT got hit hard but at my house it was all rain. If you went higher in the mountains it was all ice and at the summit of Stratton, there was over 3" on the trees.
Quoting partylight:
I remember the ice storm of 2008. Southern VT got hit hard but at my house it was all rain. If you went higher in the mountains it was all ice and at the summit of Stratton, there was over 3" on the trees.


My dad used to work at Stratton when he was a teen back in the 80s haha
That's a lot of snow, the next wave should start to develop across Texas and Oklahoma overnight as that low ejects out of the SW and interacts with this moisture

Quoting tornadodude:
Hurricane Isaac Louisiana Recovery Assistance Tops Half-Billion Milestone

One of my cousins is down there right now helping out with the recovery efforts.
Quoting wxchaser97:

One of my cousins is down there right now helping out with the recovery efforts.


I chased Hurricane Isaac solo in my Ford Taurus and a parking garage lol

Measured several 80mph gusts in Gulfport, Ms. As well as witnessed a brief tornado that caused some minor damage.
Quoting tornadodude:


I chased Hurricane Isaac solo in my Ford Taurus and a parking garage lol

Measured several 80mph gusts in Gulfport, Ms. As well as witnessed a brief tornado that caused some minor damage.

I wish I could've chased Isaac, but too far away and still in HS. All I got from him in SE MI was some clouds and maybe a shower or two.
Quoting tornadodude:


I chased Hurricane Isaac solo in my Ford Taurus and a parking garage lol

Measured several 80mph gusts in Gulfport, Ms. As well as witnessed a brief tornado that caused some minor damage.


Your biggest threat may have come from the Ford Taurus. :) That is one time a Humvee may have served you better.
Similar to what happened with Nemo in New England...the governor of Kansas is ordering all non-emergency management officials to stay off the roads tomorrow.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Your biggest threat may have come from the Ford Taurus. :) That is one time a Humvee may have served you better.


haha this taurus has been through baseball sized hail, inside a tornado, and through a hurricane.

Warning: There is some language in the video


Cloudsat of HARUNA nearly through the eye..
Torn~ Wow that was too close! Lucky it wasn't together more.

HARUNA TRMM click pic for very large quicktime animation through the eye.

WINTER STORM Q... my 100th update
__________________

Major Plains snowstorm...possibly the worst snowstorm in recent years... Notice the dark purple in there!



caveat emptor... in this case it's not a just purchase for home storing, but also for immediate use. (get it?)

click image for larger view...
Quoting Skyepony:
Torn~ Wow that was too close! Lucky it wasn't together more.

HARUNA TRMM click pic for very large quicktime animation through the eye.




Yeah it was relatively week, thankfully. We couldn't stop either, as there were cars behind us that couldn't see us, so we would have been rear ended.

I saw 5 other tornadoes that day/night, including this beauty


Warning: There is some language in the video



(Music is also by yours truly)
Quoting Tazmanian:





when ices gets up too 3/4" what do we call that ???


doom?

i think a town in TX one time got 3/4" of ices i wounder what year that was


I can vouch for what 3/4 of an inch of freezing rain does. All you have to do is search for the ice storm of 1998 ... Link

...and all I can say is "Good Luck". Being in the middle of that nightmare was an absolute nightmare. Bring on two or three feet of snow and I'd NEVER complain.

Best of luck to all of you. I wouldn't wish it on my worst enemy...or maybe I would... :-)

Lindy
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
WINTER STORM Q... my 100th update
__________________

Major Plains snowstorm...possibly the worst snowstorm in recent years... Notice the dark purple in there!



caveat emptor... in this case it's not a just purchase for home storing, but also for immediate use. (get it?)

click image for larger view...

Actually I can't see anything as the image isn't showing up.
Quoting tornadodude:


haha this taurus has been through baseball sized hail, inside a tornado, and through a hurricane.





Nice video. Gutsy move, dude. In my younger days I would have liked to have been with you on that ride. These days I find that I break a little easier and I am a little harder to put back together.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Nice video. Gutsy move, dude. In my younger days I would have liked to have been with you on that ride. These days I find that I break a little easier and I am a little harder to put back together.


Thanks!

Yeah, it will catch up to me one day, but until then I keep chasing.

Quoting wxchaser97:

Actually I can't see anything as the image isn't showing up.

huh??? Ok, I just tried another uploading site, check below.. if not CLICK HERE
Here are my 2012 chase highlights, combination of videos and pictures, pretty neat

Warning: There is some language in the video








Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:

huh??? Ok, I just tried another uploading site, check below.. if not CLICK HERE


Ok it is working now, thanks.
Bailing for now, stay Safe All, break out the cleats or golf shoes for the ice.
See Ya All on the Flip Side....
Quoting tornadodude:
Here are my 2012 chase highlights, combination of videos and pictures, pretty neat


Strangely, this still fits just fine, lol:

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Strangely, this still fits just fine, lol:



Funny haha

Youtube didn't provide the old embed code for that video, so I had to change it to the old one, so it would show up here
Quoting JNCali:
When we pull back and look at the larger view of humanity, not limited by the industrialized western culture American Dream consumer driven everything disposable paradigm (if that in fact is possible) we quickly find that happiness can be as basic as waking up, being able to breath, having water and food, having a child survive, not being forced into prostitution, being able to take a bathroom break while working in a factory... etc.. It is just too easy to be detached from reality and think that our biggest problem is deciding whether to eat at McDonalds or Burger King for dinner.. imho




I agree completely!
Oh come on. Q? That's pushing it TWC. There's no Q hurricane names so they could easily just be like "Winter Storm Quinn" or something.

Telling it like it is - something I try to do best. Here's the bottom line on naming winter storms.

Honestly, I'm NOT 100% against the idea. It's a good idea and it can be a fun way to pass the time before the real naming gets underway. However, I strongly disagree with TWC's orchestration of it.

Rationalizing naming these things is certainly a 'good catch' if you will. TWC claims the purpose is to raise public awareness and encourage preparedness. It doesn't affect certainty in the event. Why is that necessary with a snowstorm? Meteorologists convey their thoughts and try their best to warn the public, and the media sans TWC's naming system hypes the threat of snow to death and towns, counties, states, etc. go to hell and back to prepare accordingly.

People, including on this very blog in the past, have been highly critical of TWC's new direction. Coast Guard Alaska and all that irrelevant crap, where is the weather on that channel? It's spiraling downwards in classic fashion (like MTV, History). So with all this crap to try and rack in new viewers, what do you think this naming winter storms is? Obviously an even bigger attention ploy. You really think public awareness is in their best interest? Look at half the TV shows that play on the channel, even when the weather is acting up.

You all play your parts perfectly in this, starting a firestorm because we all have a difference of opinion. The reason the approval of naming the storms is so high on this blog? It's because most of you flap (censorship) to the naming of hurricanes; obviously you'd jump on this opportunity to name snowstorms!

And I know it's true, because I was once a HUGE fan of naming snowstorms in similar fashion to hurricanes. Takes one to know one, and many of the comments I read exhibit the same mentality I once had on the topic.

TWC's handling of the names bothers me too. They would say the name 'Nemo' more than they would the antecedent 'the storm'. I think they would use the name even more frequently than they would a hurricane name in order to enforce their naming system. Like no, you don't own the weather.

It's obvious a lot of people in the general public will pick up on the names. The main body of TWC's viewers is people who aren't into weather, think they give a damn if snowstorms are named? Doesn't change the inconvenience. Since so many people rely on TWC the way they do, they take on these names without much more thought.

Consider our excitement on a hurricane name. For instance, I liked 'Irene' and thought it was friggin' sweet to be threatened by that name. But to everyone else it was like "Irene? WTF" They're totally indifferent to names.

Names should be localized and coordinated with other private sector interests. The storm deemed 'Athena' in the NE was much much different than the run-of-the-mill 'Brutus' storm that affected the Mountain States. As others have said, who died and made them king? Their naming list is arbitrary and all they want out of the names is "OMG IT'S SNOWING!?%&# #Nemo".

Plus, I feel like their names need to be ridiculous, I mean absolutely ridiculous. Like I said, the general public is indifferent to hurricane names. Sandy or Nemo? You and I know which name would belong to a hurricane, but not too many people in the public would because they feel a hurricane would have a funny name like Nemo. They need to disambiguate. I really like NWS Buffalo's strategy of themes each year...Why can't they do something like a weather instruments theme. Winter Storm Barometer? Lol.

I know places like Europe name their windstorms, but they don't have hurricanes and those windstorms pose legitimate threats the way hurricanes do to us. Most of our snowstorms are just nuisances (RIP Oklahoma victim), and meteorologists will certainly alert the public if a storm is more serious. Not to mention tropical cyclones are much more uniform and have a specific life cycle.

Big snowstorms name themselves. Knickerbocker storm, Storm of the Century, Lindsay Storm, Boxing Day snowstorm, etc. TWC just wants to sensationalize and continue veering off their main goal.
"If you're 27 or younger, you've never experienced a colder-than-average month."

http://grist.org/article/hot-in-here-how-the-if-y oure-27-or-younger-meme-took-off/
It's snowing tonight at my birthplace, Tuscon AZ!
The NAM and GFS certainly show a lot more destabilization of the atmosphere across central Louisiana tomorrow when compared to last night's runs. Both models show at least 1000 j/kg of CAPE, which is more than sufficient for severe thunderstorms, especially given the phenomenal wind shear. My main concern about tomorrow is that if supercells develop, and they actually sustain themselves ahead of the squall line that should be pushing through eastern Texas by 21z, then they have great potential to produce significant to violent tornadoes.

Having significant tornadoes move through central Louisiana (populated area) during rush hour is not good. But then again, this is more of a worst-case scenario.

Here's hoping for a rainy mess.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The NAM and GFS certainly show a lot more destabilization of the atmosphere across central Louisiana tomorrow when compared to last night's runs. Both models show at least 1000 j/kg of CAPE, which is more than sufficient for severe thunderstorms, especially given the phenomenal wind shear. My main concern about tomorrow is that if supercells develop, and they actually sustain themselves ahead of the squall line that should be pushing through eastern Texas by 21z, then they have great potential to produce significant to violent tornadoes.

Having significant tornadoes move through central Louisiana (populated area) during rush hour is not good. But then again, this is more of a worst-case scenario.

Here's hoping for a rainy mess.



What worries me is that if we continue to see systems moving through the U.S. with such impressive dynamics and shear heading into the Spring, the missing "ingredient" instability will no longer be lacking. Imagine mid to late Spring moisture and instability in combination with the type of systems we've seen move through the southern U.S. It's a troubling thought.
@ post 1058...

Nemo was an outstanding storm of this season, and ranking close to that of 1978... '22 Knickerbocker, Snowtober 2011 and '93 Storm of the Century are storms with "unofficial" names but named so because of something really outstanding like the time it occurred on, the damage (to a specific location, like the Knickerbocker).. No weather organization came up with names in the old days...

I like the naming system, TWC had to start off the idea much before even coming with the names... With now winter storms named by the media, it would be hard for anyone to forget the unofficial name associated to the storm..

Being directly impacted by a named winter storm is more likely to be longer remembered than by a storm that hits somewhere else...

Q could be the second storm to be remembered by many...
This idea began this season, I could see it being more favored 5 years from now...

example...


If I say Katrina, what does anyone think of? Someone called like that or the hurricane?
Quoting Tazmanian:





when ices gets up too 3/4" what do we call that ???


doom?

i think a town in TX one time got 3/4" of ices i wounder what year that was


The ice storm in Western KY in January 2009 gave my area 2 inches of pure ice. It did catastrophic damage to the electrical utility system here. Many areas were without power for 2 weeks or more.
1065. MrMixon


Well the snow has tapered off here in Nederland for now, which is a bit worrisome because so many of this winter's storms have started off with a promising squall only to shut down earlier than expected. We've only got an inch or two of snow on the ground so far.

However, there's still plenty of moisture in the area and I'm encouraged by this forecast...

.
Quoting Jedkins01:



Although not weather related, please don't ban me for sharing this :)


sharing what? don't see anything
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
@ post 1058...

Nemo was an outstanding storm of this season, and ranking close to that of 1978... '22 Knickerbocker, Snowtober 2011 and '93 Storm of the Century are storms with "unofficial" names but named so because of something really outstanding like the time it occurred on, the damage (to a specific location, like the Knickerbocker).. No weather organization came up with names in the old days...

I like the naming system, TWC had to start off the idea much before even coming with the names... With now winter storms named by the media, it would be hard for anyone to forget the unofficial name associated to the storm..

Being directly impacted by a named winter storm is more likely to be longer remembered than by a storm that hits somewhere else...

Q could be the second storm to be remembered by many...
This idea began this season, I could see it being more favored 5 years from now...

example...


If I say Katrina, what does anyone think of? Someone called like that or the hurricane?


If you weren't affected by it then why do you care? Think of it from a layman's view.

And actually I think a lot of people think of a person named Katrina first, lol. But that name is sacred; it's a bit different.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The NAM and GFS certainly show a lot more destabilization of the atmosphere across central Louisiana tomorrow when compared to last night's runs. Both models show at least 1000 j/kg of CAPE, which is more than sufficient for severe thunderstorms, especially given the phenomenal wind shear. My main concern about tomorrow is that if supercells develop, and they actually sustain themselves ahead of the squall line that should be pushing through eastern Texas by 21z, then they have great potential to produce significant to violent tornadoes.

Having significant tornadoes move through central Louisiana (populated area) during rush hour is not good. But then again, this is more of a worst-case scenario.

Here's hoping for a rainy mess.


Fortunately (for the people of Louisiana) it appears that the best CAPE will be displaced to the west of the best shear by a couple hundred miles at least.

The best combination of CAPE and shear appears to be in South Central Louisiana between 2-6pm tomorrow, with Baton Rogue, Lake Charles, and New Orleans all in the threat area. I expect the deep moisture to struggle to make it further North than Alexandria, Louisiana.

This is from the 00z run, hour 21 (or 3pm CST Tomorrow)



The red outlined area is where I anticipate the highest tornado threat. The precip shown in the red area could very well be discrete storms, as the NAM isn't great at showing that.

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


sharing what? don't see anything



Well that's weird, its the 3rd or fourth time I've attempted to post images the last few days and haven't been able to. I'm not sure why, it's only been this way recently.
Quoting Jedkins01:



Well that's weird, its the 3rd or fourth time I've attempted to post images the last few days and haven't been able to. I'm not sure why, it's only been this way recently.


I've noticed that if you try to share an image from Facebook or Twitter, it won't show.

Quoting wxgeek723:


If you weren't affected by it then why do you care? Think of it from a layman's view.

And actually I think a lot of people think of a person named Katrina first, lol. But that name is sacred; it's a bit different.


I would only care for it as being a storm of the season, must have impacted a very large area or caused so much damage for me to remember it if it didn't hit my area..

And yes, (sacred?) I don't think someone would come to mind quicker than Hurricane Katrina.. we would have to survey that
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I would only care for it as being a storm of the season, must have impacted a very large area or caused so much damage for me to remember it if it didn't hit my area..

And yes, (sacred?) I don't think someone would come to mind quicker than Hurricane Katrina.. we would have to survey that


It depends on whether or not you already know a Katrina really...
Quoting wxgeek723:


It depends on whether or not you already know a Katrina really...


well, kind of true... I'll survey New Orleans first.
unfortunately I see power outages for northern Arkansas from this...

SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS...BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF ICE
AND UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH OF SLEET.
this is odd...for a small area inland. Vermont

* LOCATIONS...THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS TO
INCLUDE THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF ORLEANS...LAMOILLE AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

* HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 14 INCHES OF DRY FLUFFY SNOW.

* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...MAINLY TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
this is odd...for a small area inland. Vermont

* LOCATIONS...THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS TO
INCLUDE THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF ORLEANS...LAMOILLE AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

* HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 14 INCHES OF DRY FLUFFY SNOW.

* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...MAINLY TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.



Sounds like an upslope snow event
There is an area being monitored for a watch, link.


Quoting tornadodude:


Sounds like an upslope snow event


no lake effect to work with before it happens...
Quoting tornadodude:


I've noticed that if you try to share an image from Facebook or Twitter, it won't show.




Ok, I'm not along then.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


no lake effect related from it either..


Ok it should work now :)


Quoting Jedkins01:



Ok, I'm not along then.

To get Facebook or Twitter images to show up you have to take out the "s" in https.
Quoting tornadodude:




they are not connected. as far as snow goes. Altitude may play a role here
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


they are not connected.


what are you talking about?
Why do I always have to open your posts Tornadodude? Who dislikes you so. What's the closest you've ever come to a twister during your chasing?
Quoting Tribucanes:
Why do I always have to open your posts Tornadodude? Who dislikes you so. What's the closest you've ever come to a twister during your chasing?


that is a good question...happens to me too
Quoting Tribucanes:
Why do I always have to open your posts Tornadodude? Who dislikes you so. What's the closest you've ever come to a twister during your chasing?


I'm not really sure who keeps clicking "-" on my posts. There are a few older members here who dislike my storm chasing, assuming that's the problem.

I've been inside a weak tornado, I posted the video on the last page
Sweet, I'll check it out. They dislike your chasing? Do you have a meteorology background or relative field of study? Not that it's a must; I'm guessing you've at least gone to spotter classes, right?
Quoting Tribucanes:
Sweet, I'll check it out. They dislike your chasing? Do you have a meteorology background or relative field of study? Not that it's a must; I'm guessing you've at least gone to spotter classes, right?


I have attended several spotter classes, and I have a year of MET school as well as 4 years of chasing.

I have been studying meteorology on my own since 6th grade. It has always been a passion, particularly the severe weather aspect.

I always stop to help. I have tended to injured people, come back to places to help with recovery, as well as donated to disaster areas. I am also currently a part of a research group. We are working on proving the wind speeds inside the mini suction vortices inside tornadoes.

Pretty fascinating stuff
Or I could be getting the "-" because I tend to shy away from GW, AGW, and CC talk.

To me, that talk is similar to politics and religion, just something I'd rather not discuss.

Anyway, severe threat could ramp up over north central Texas overnight
That's really exciting stuff. Sounds like your qualified and doing more than glory chasing. The research ground sounds intriguing. There is a strong argument for why people shouldn't chase. The dad with no experience who loads up the wife and kids, or the teenagers with no experience, and the many many who fall in the middle of with no experience. You don't fall in any of those categories. Doing the right moral thing in helping the injured too; good for you. Hope it goes well for you, stay safe this year.
Quoting Jedkins01:
Ok it should work now :)




that's pretty funny haha
1094. Bielle
.
Quoting Tribucanes:
That's really exciting stuff. Sounds like your qualified and doing more than glory chasing. The research ground sounds intriguing. There is a strong argument for why people shouldn't chase. The dad with no experience who loads up the wife and kids, or the teenagers with no experience, and the many many who fall in the middle of with no experience. You don't fall in any of those categories. Doing the right moral thing in helping the injured too; good for you. Hope it goes well for you, stay safe this year.


You're absolutely right. There are most definitely many people out there who don't know exactly what they are doing. I love helping people learn more about it. I just wish some people weren't so stubborn and would take help when it's offered. It's the people who think they know all they need to know who get hurt.

I am proud of my videos and chases, but in no way am I in it just for that. I've gone on chases with no cameras, just to go out and enjoy it. Nothing more adrenaline rushing than to be standing under a meso in the great plains, feeling the inflow rushing into a powerful thunderstorm, it's exhilarating. I love it.

The research aspect is amazing. The guy who heads it is finishing up his PHD this spring (just have to narrow down 450 pages of a dissertation first haha)

1086 Tribucanes: Why do I always have to open your posts tornadodude? Who dislikes you so. What's the closest you've ever come to a twister during your chasing?
1088 tornadodude: I'm not really sure who keeps clicking "-" on my posts. There are a few older members here who dislike my storm chasing, assuming that's the problem.

Nope, trolls have been trying to knock many of the better informed bloggers off this site.
You join KeeperOfTheGate, Neapolitan, Patrap, StSimonsIslandGuy, MichaelSTL amongst others in being thus targetted.
If you want to stay out of the GW/AGW debates here I completely get it. That's your right and many here echo that sentiment. Often I find it necessary to strongly defend the Dr's position and that of the vast vast majority of climate scientists. I find his posts call for that discussion at least some of the time and it's a discussion that really does need to be had. That said, it can be quite contentious, and that is not what many come here for. I'm out for the night, good luck to ya, and keep on keepn on.
Random and rather insignificant compared to current the current winterstorm, but it's not often Seattle has variable weather. This will definitely be one of the stronger systems for us this winter.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
328 PM PST WED FEB 20 2013

...A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY...

A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS. ONE TO TWO FEET OF NEW SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY MORNING. A WINTER STORM WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THIS.

LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWLANDS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MOST AREAS WILL BECOME BREEZY FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES ASHORE AND SOME AREAS WILL BECOME WINDY. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 OR 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR. WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AND GRADUALLY TAPER FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND.

LASTLY...LARGE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WAVES ARE PREDICTED TO REACH 22 OR 23 FEET ON SATURDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING. AT A MINIMUM...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS CAN BE ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY. THE TIDES WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE LOW-LYING COASTAL COMMUNITIES THAT ARE TYPICALLY IMPACTED BY LARGE OCEAN SWELLS.
Quoting aspectre:
1088 Tribucanes: Why do I always have to open your posts tornadodude? Who dislikes you so. What's the closest you've ever come to a twister during your chasing?
1088 tornadodude: I'm not really sure who keeps clicking "-" on my posts. There are a few older members here who dislike my storm chasing, assuming that's the problem.

Nope, the problem is that trolls have been trying to knock many of the better informed bloggers off this site. You join KeeperOfTheGate, Neapolitan, Patrap, StSimonsIslandGuy, MichaelSTL amongst others in being thus targetted.


All smart people, too. Interesting. MichaelSTL always had some great severe weather posts.
Quoting Tribucanes:
If you want to stay out of the GW/AGW debates here I completely get it. That's your right and many here echo that sentiment. Often I find it necessary to strongly defend the Dr's position and that of the vast vast majority of climate scientists. I find his posts call for that discussion at least some of the time and it's a discussion that really does need to be had. That said, it can be quite contentious, and that is not what many come here for. I'm out for the night, good luck to ya, and keep on keepn on.


Oh I find the debating to be fascinating. I am very open minded about it, sometimes tho, people from both sides (that's the problem, sides) tend to get a little pushy. anyway, that's enough of that. Thanks for the encouragement, have a good night!
If you set your filter to show all, then you can see all the posts. Upper left above the comments.
Quoting Seattleite:
Random and rather insignificant compared to current the current winterstorm, but it's not often Seattle has variable weather. This will definitely be one of the stronger systems for us this winter.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
328 PM PST WED FEB 20 2013

...A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY...

A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS. ONE TO TWO FEET OF NEW SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY MORNING. A WINTER STORM WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THIS.

LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWLANDS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MOST AREAS WILL BECOME BREEZY FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES ASHORE AND SOME AREAS WILL BECOME WINDY. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 OR 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR. WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AND GRADUALLY TAPER FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND.

LASTLY...LARGE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WAVES ARE PREDICTED TO REACH 22 OR 23 FEET ON SATURDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING. AT A MINIMUM...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS CAN BE ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY. THE TIDES WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE LOW-LYING COASTAL COMMUNITIES THAT ARE TYPICALLY IMPACTED BY LARGE OCEAN SWELLS.


Sounds pretty intense. 20ft+ waves? wow
Ah, that's really too bad Aspectre. Really sad, hopefully management can undo the trolls doing that. They shouldn't be allowed that kind of power. Thanks for the heads up.
Quoting Skyepony:
If you set your filter to show all, then you can see all the posts. Upper left above the comments.


That's what mine is set to
LOL thanks Skyepony, that does it.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
1:19 PM WST February 21 2013
===========================

A weak low [11U] is located in the monsoon trough near 13S 104E, about 460km south of Christmas Island. The low is moving slowly westwards and may develop into a tropical cyclone on Saturday or Sunday. This system is expected to pass to the south of Cocos Island. A direct impact is not expected, but it may cause squally winds and heavy rainfall over the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=====================================
Friday: Low
Saturday: Moderate
Sunday: High

system #2
---------

A low [10U] in the Northern Region near 11.0S 129.0E is slowly developing and is expected to move into the Western Region during Friday or early Saturday. This low may develop into a tropical cyclone late on Saturday or on Sunday.

Next week there is a significant risk that this system will become a severe tropical cyclone and impact the Pilbara or West Kimberley. People in the Pilbara and Kimberley are advised to stay up to date with weather forecasts and warnings.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=====================================
Friday: Low
Saturday: Moderate
Sunday: High
The new SPC outlook for tomorrow should be out soon as well.

I expect it to be a slight risk, with a 10% hatched area for tornadoes, across Southern Louisiana.


Solar wind flowing from this sinuous coronal hole could reach Earth on Feb. 21-22. Credit: SDO/AIA.


Quoting tornadodude:


That's what mine is set to

Mine too. Sometimes you have to go to another blog. Click on someones handle to get it to take.
Quoting Skyepony:


Solar wind flowing from this sinuous coronal hole could reach Earth on Feb. 21-22. Credit: SDO/AIA.



Mine too. Sometimes you have to go to another blog. Click on someones handle to get it to take.


Possible Auroras?
flare going to come off there i reckon
Quoting tornadodude:


I'm not really sure who keeps clicking "-" on my posts. There are a few older members here who dislike my storm chasing, assuming that's the problem.

I've been inside a weak tornado, I posted the video on the last page
May a thousand fire ants inhabit the pants of the one who is harming you, Tornadodude. I enjoy your posts, always have.
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
May a thousand fire ants inhabit the pants of the one who is harming you, Tornadodude. I enjoy your posts, always have.


That's a lot of fire ants

Thank you

This is the beautified version of my tornado graph from earlier. I also did one, that is beautified, on Atlantic tropical cyclones from 2000-2012. I made these graphs all on my own with the help of Paint.net and MS Excel, mostly Excel. Click on either one of the images for the bigger version of that one.



Quoting tornadodude:


That's a lot of fire ants

Thank you

Perhaps just a hundred then.
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Perhaps just a hundred then.


I won't tell
Parts of northern Texas, Oklahoma, and southern Kansas are dealing with wintry precip, while areas just to the south are being monitored for a severe weather watch.

Mesoscale discussion #180
Quoting aspectre:
1086 Tribucanes: Why do I always have to open your posts tornadodude? Who dislikes you so. What's the closest you've ever come to a twister during your chasing?
1088 tornadodude: I'm not really sure who keeps clicking "-" on my posts. There are a few older members here who dislike my storm chasing, assuming that's the problem.

Nope, trolls have been trying to knock many of the better informed bloggers off this site.
You join KeeperOfTheGate, Neapolitan, Patrap, StSimonsIslandGuy, MichaelSTL amongst others in being thus targetted.
we had clusters of them working with multi handles flagging everything and everyone but that is not happening anymore

now its working the way it was meant to work
Quoting wxchaser97:
This is the beautified version of my tornado graph from earlier. I also did one, that is beautified, on Atlantic tropical cyclones from 2000-2012. I made these graphs all on my own with the help of Paint.net and MS Excel, mostly Excel. Click on either one of the images for the bigger version of that one.





I like the graphics, it's interesting to note that there were over 700 tornadoes alone in April last year
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
FULL MOONS GET NAMES???


yup. always had names.
Quoting tornadodude:


I like the graphics, it's interesting to note that there were over 700 tornadoes alone in April last year

Thanks, I just wish I was actively tracking/forecasting severe weather a couple years ago as I missed some big events.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Thanks, I just wish I was actively tracking/forecasting severe weather a couple years ago as I missed some big events.


There are bound to more

The first significant tornado events are remember are those in May of 03 and 04. There were some pretty significant ones.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


yup. always had names.


adding to the TWC naming thing here...
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


adding to the TWC naming thing here...


no. the naming of the full moons was way, way before.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


no. the naming of the full moons was way, way before.


I mean, they mention that since they are naming storms...
oh, heh
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
FULL MOONS GET NAMES???


They really shortened the lore on that..they only had 2 names for February.. Here's a more complete list for Feb: Ice Moon, Storm Moon, Horning Moon, Hunger Moon, Wild Moon, Red & Cleansing Moon, Quickening Moon, Solmonath (Sun Moon), Big Winter Moon.
Everyone has been taking the 1-question survey above Jeff avatar, about the winter storm names?
Quoting Skyepony:


They really shortened the lore on that..they only had 2 names for February.. Here's a more complete list for Feb: Ice Moon, Storm Moon, Horning Moon, Hunger Moon, Wild Moon, Red & Cleansing Moon, Quickening Moon, Solmonath (Sun Moon), Big Winter Moon.


fun names... also thanks for the wu mail...
The Russian meteor is reportedly the largest infrasound ever recorded by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, which have monitoring sites networked around the globe.

I wonder if the elephants in India could hear it. It would be interesting to see if any were caught on film around this time, in zoos for example.

Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
The Russian meteor is reportedly the largest infrasound ever recorded by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, which have monitoring sites networked around the globe.

I wonder if the elephants in India could hear it. It would be interesting to see if any were caught on film around this time, in zoos for example.



Interesting, I must now search youtube for animal reactions to the meteorite
Quoting Skyepony:
Everyone has been taking the 1-question survey above Jeff avatar, about the winter storm names?

I can't see any survey above his avatar or anywhere. I want to do it, but I can't find it.
Quoting wxchaser97:

I can't see any survey above his avatar or anywhere. I want to do it, but I can't find it.


Right above About Jeff Masters? Are you a member? Maybe ads there instead?
Quoting Skyepony:


Right above About Jeff Masters? Are you a member? Maybe ads there instead?

I see a white space above About Jeff Masters and I am a paying member.

EDIT: I had to turn off AdBlock plus since it is installed on the browser I am using. I now see the survey.
Quoting Skyepony:


They really shortened the lore on that..they only had 2 names for February.. Here's a more complete list for Feb: Ice Moon, Storm Moon, Horning Moon, Hunger Moon, Wild Moon, Red & Cleansing Moon, Quickening Moon, Solmonath (Sun Moon), Big Winter Moon.


now, I never heard of some of those names.
Quoting wxchaser97:

I see a white space above About Jeff Masters and I am a paying member.

EDIT: I had to turn off AdBlock plus since it is installed on the browser I am using. I now see the survey.


Ah, that explains why I can't see it. I too have adblock.
A blog for a fuller description on my graphs plus some additional info.
I am really tired and need my sleep to track the severe storms later today, good night/morning everyone.
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
CYCLONE TROPICAL HARUNA (09-20122013)
10:00 AM RET February 21 2013
=======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Haruna (965 hPa) located at 22.4S 41.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 2 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=======================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 55 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Storm Force Winds
=================
65 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the south

Gale Force Winds
===================
80 NM radius from the center, extending up to 85 NM in the south

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
105 NM radius from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 22.1S 42.1E - 80 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
24 HRS: 22.4S 42.9E - 75 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
48 HRS: 24.7S 45.1E - 35 knots (Depression sur Terre)
72 HRS: 26.7S 48.9E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)

Additional Information
========================
Haruna still presents a large eye structure. Over the past six hours, the eye continued to widen and the deep convection ring has warmed. According to the last satellite pictures (met7) and mw imagery (SSMIS at 02.28z), Haruna hat reached a peak of intensity around 02.00z and shows actually signs of weakening. Over the past six hours, Haruna continues to track very slowly east southeastward at 2 knots

An upper to mid level trough, well depicted on water vapor imagery south of 30.0s, is transiting south of the system. Under combined influence of a westerly steering flow present to the north of the trough and a south southeasterly steering flow associated with the mid levels highs located over southern Africa, the system should continue today and tonight on a slow eastwards or northeastwards track. From Friday to Sunday, as the trough bypass the system, Haruna should be embedded within a northwesterly steering flow on the southwestern side of a near equatorial ridge, and accelerate a little. Over high energetic potential seas (29-30 C and under the upper level ridge, environmental conditions are favorable. But on the other hand, the slow track is unfavorable for intensification. Intensity may also fluctuate during the next 36 hours. Actual forecast of intensity has been lowered.

Haruna presents an important threat for the southwestern coasts of Madagascar. The potential area of landfall is still rather wide around Tulear (uncertainty of more than 200 km north and south of Tulear). Uncertainty exists also for the time of landfall, although Friday or Friday night is highly suggested by the guidance. Inhabitants of this area should monitor the evolution of this system and stay tuned with information provided by their national weather services.

After the system would get back over waters to the southeast of Madagascar (Sunday and beyond), the system should be within a barometric col situation and should gradually slow down. At the end of the forecast period, Haruna could miss the trough and not moves towards the mid-lats. As a low to mid-level highs should build by the southwest, a gradual turn towards the north or the northwest could be expected. Over that portion of the forecast track,environmental conditions appear unfavorable (strong northwesterly wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures). However, some modest intensification may be possible. Given the high spread shown by the models, there is a higher than usual uncertainty in the track forecast of that system.
1141. LargoFl
Good Morning Folks!..the Blogs coffee is perked for when You get here..have a great day everyone!
1142. LargoFl
1143. LargoFl
Interesting tidbit...my local met said that one of these storms coming thru this week and next week..will possibly dump yet another 2-3 feet of snow in the northeast,like the last one.....winter isnt over yet huh
1144. LargoFl
1145. LargoFl
1146. LargoFl
folks along the gulf coast,heed your warnings.........
1147. Gearsts
Levi Cowan‏@TropicalTidbits

If the NAO persists negative, trade winds get reduced & SSTs warm in tropics, while cooling off US coast, a trademark of big seasons.
Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie, if you're here. Seems a quiet morning. A warmer 53 degrees here in my part of Louisiana and a 50% chance of tornados today. Fun. Hopefully not until after school as getting ten special ed kindergarten boys to stay in storm position in the hallway is not easy.

There's french toast, belgian waffles and bacon on the sideboard with Largo's coffee. Enjoy.
Live streaming thunderstorm/sleet from Norman, Oklahoma


Live video by Ustream
Morning everyone. Tdude, do you think the SPC is a little conservative in going with just a 5% tornado risk today?

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Morning everyone. Tdude, do you think the SPC is a little conservative in going with just a 5% tornado risk today?



I was honestly expecting them to go 10% hatched due to the risk of a strong tornado, they may upgrade at later outlooks tho
SPC is highlighting a pretty large area of the SE for severe potential on Monday:

Good morning. No big changes are expected from the mainly dry conditions for Puerto Rico.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
509 AM AST THU FEB 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE AREA...WILL
MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVED INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...BUT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS LEFT ABOUT AN INCH OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE
WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THEN IN THE AFTERNOON
CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PUERTO RICO AS THE FLOW
TURNS MORE EASTERLY AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ACROSS THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...OVERNIGHT PASSING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY WHERE A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH THE AREA...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND OVERALL SHOWER ACTIVITY. THEREAFTER...SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND REMAIN ISOLATED
AND LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FLOW HAS BECOME EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE USVI. SHRA...MTN OBSCURATIONS AND MVFR CONDS ARE NOTED IN
SOUTHEAST PR AND LIKELY TO CONT THRU AT LEAST 21/12Z. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE DURING THE DAY WILL BRING LCL MVFR TO WRN PR AFT
21/17Z...DUE TO CIGS. EXPECT CLRG FROM E-W AFT 21/21Z. LLVL WIND
FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY AFT 21/21Z 10-20KT.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM TODAY. SWELLS ARE SUBSIDING AND THE
LOCAL BUOYS ARE SHOWING THE DECREASE IN SEA HEIGHTS.
HOWEVER...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP TO 6 FEET BEFORE SEAS
INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 84 74 / 40 30 30 20
STT 85 73 85 73 / 40 30 30 20
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie, if you're here. Seems a quiet morning. A warmer 53 degrees here in my part of Louisiana and a 50% chance of tornados today. Fun. Hopefully not until after school as getting ten special ed kindergarten boys to stay in storm position in the hallway is not easy.

There's french toast, belgian waffles and bacon on the sideboard with Largo's coffee. Enjoy.

You know I'm here. lol
Quoting tornadodude:


I was honestly expecting them to go 10% hatched due to the risk of a strong tornado, they may upgrade at later outlooks tho


Hmmm, I'm in that area and it was 50%, not 5.
Quoting AussieStorm:

You know I'm here. lol


Glad to see you. Hope you've dried out a little.
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Hmmm, I'm in that area and it was 50%, not 5.


50%? The highest SPC goes for tornadoes is 45%
Quoting LargoFl:
Morning Largo, Hope that weather stays north on sunday. I have tickets to the 500 for the first time. Last thing on my nascar bucket list and now it looks like rain. Oh well theres always monday and tuesday if needed
Feel free to watch as thunder sleet continues here in Norman, Oklahoma


Live video by Ustream

Or on my site: live stream
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Glad to see you. Hope you've dried out a little.

Dried out but going to be drenched again from Friday night to Sunday morning. 130mm(5.1in) Is being forecasted.
Quoting tornadodude:


50%? The highest SPC goes for tornadoes is 45%


Wasn't SPC, was local news and TWC. But big difference between 5 and 50%. Personally, I prefer 5% or 0.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Dried out but going to be drenched again from Friday night to Sunday morning. 130mm(5.1in) Is being forecasted.


Stay safe with that much rain. Hope your crick behaves and stays in it's banks. We've more rain of course and more on the weekend. I just want it to dry out enough to be able to take the kids to recess at school.
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Wasn't SPC, was local news and TWC. But big difference between 5 and 50%. Personally, I prefer 5% or 0.


Well the percentages are for different things. Spc is a 5% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a point
It takes a special type of person to be up at 530am just to watch thundersleet haha
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Stay safe with that much rain. Hope your crick behaves and stays in it's banks. We've more rain of course and more on the weekend. I just want it to dry out enough to be able to take the kids to recess at school.

I'll try to set up my streaming cam on the creek. Fingers crossed I still know how to hook it up.
1166. LargoFl
yes i too hope the rain stays away from Daytona sunday as well,this is going to be a great race if the weather holds out...
1167. LargoFl
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
145 PM EST WED FEB 20 2013 /245 PM CST WED FEB 20 2013/

...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK...

RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION HAS ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS
ABOVE BASE FLOWS AND SATURATED SOILS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE IN RECESSION AT THIS TIME BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO BASE LEVELS BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF
RAINFALL BEGINS LATE THIS WEEK.

COMPUTER MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE SPECIFIC DETAILS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION
BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. BECAUSE
THESE STORM SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING AND PULL IN A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF GULF MOISTURE...THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD
EVENT OF COMPARABLE MAGNITUDE OR GREATER THAN LAST WEEK IS
POSSIBLE INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE FIRST RAINFALL EVENT ON FRIDAY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AND
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO
4 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND INTO
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA SHOULD THIS SYSTEM MOVE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED.

THE SECOND RAINFALL EVENT IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN ON MONDAY AND
LAST THROUGH TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE MORE
UNCERTAIN BUT COULD EASILY MEET OR EXCEED PREVIOUS RAINFALL FROM
THE FIRST EVENT.

AVERAGE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY...

SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.........5 TO 8 INCHES
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.........5 TO 8 INCHES
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA......3 TO 5 INCHES
SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.....3 TO 4 INCHES
FLORIDA BIG BEND..........2 TO 4 INCHES

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT LOCALLY HEAVIER STORM TOTALS DOUBLE
THESE AVERAGE AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOILS IN MANY LOCATIONS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF THIS MAGNITUDE COULD CREATE ANOTHER ROUND OF DANGEROUS FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.

IMPACTS ON RIVERS...

SHOULD THESE ANTICIPATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OCCUR...SIGNIFICANT RISES
ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WOULD BE LIKELY. CURRENTLY...THE
FOLLOWING BASINS ARE WELL ABOVE BASE FLOWS AND VULNERABLE TO
FLOODING...

CHOCTAWHATCHEE...INCREASED FLOODING POTENTIAL BETWEEN GENEVA AND
BRUCE INTO NEXT WEEK.

CHIPOLA...INCREASED FLOODING POTENTIAL AT MARIANNA AND ALTHA INTO
NEXT WEEK.

APALACHICOLA...MINOR FLOODING POTENTIAL AT BLOUNTSTOWN CONTINUING
INTO NEXT WEEK.

FLINT...MINOR FLOODING POTENTIAL AT ALBANY AND AN INCREASED FLOOD
POTENTIAL FROM NEWTON TO LAKE SEMINOLE.

WITHLACHOOCHEE...MINOR FLOODING POTENTIAL AT VALDOSTA.

OTHER VULNERABLE STREAMS INCLUDE THE MUCKALEE CREEK AND
KINCHAFOONEE NORTH OF ALBANY AS WELL AS THE SPRING CREEK IN MILLER
COUNTY AND THE LITTLE RIVER NEAR HAHIRA.

AS WITH ANY HYDROLOGIC RIVER PREDICTION...RISES AND EVENTUAL CRESTS
ARE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS AND ENTERS THE
BASIN. FOR THIS REASON...THIS OUTLOOK MAY BE UPDATED FREQUENTLY IN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR THE LATEST FLOOD AND RIVER INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/TALLAHASSEE AND CLICK ON THE RIVERS AND LAKES LINK.

$$

EVANS/GODSEY
1168. ncstorm



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0184
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0508 AM CST THU FEB 21 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...N CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 211108Z - 211245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ELEVATED STORMS HAVE VERY SLOWLY BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER
ORGANIZED ACROSS N CENTRAL TX OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT WW
STILL REMAINS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY HAS REVEALED A SUBTLE INCREASE IN STORM
INTENSITY/ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS WITHIN THE LINE OF
CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS N CENTRAL TX -- PARTICULARLY BETWEEN ABI
/ABILENE TX/ AND FSI /FORT SILL OK/. THIS IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF
THE CONTINUED ADVANCE OF COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
SYSTEM...PRESUMABLY STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTING
IN SOME INCREASE IN ELEVATED CAPE WITH TIME.

HAVING SAID THAT...STORMS REMAIN SUB-SEVERE...WITH NO CELL AT ANY
TIME THIS MORNING SUGGESTIVE OF ANY MORE THAN PEA-SIZED HAIL PER
WDSS-2 MESH DATA. WITH CONVECTION-ALLOWING HIGH-RES MODEL RUNS
SHOWING NO FURTHER INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS REGION FOR ANY SIGNS OF APPRECIABLE CONVECTIVE INCREASE
WHICH COULD WARRANT WW CONSIDERATION.

..GOSS.. 02/21/2013


ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 31459799 31519899 32109945 33069907 34199817 34009701
32969674 31499768 31459799


1169. LargoFl
1170. ncstorm
1171. LargoFl
Quoting ncstorm:
gee possible 7 inches of rainfall..there's going to be alot of flooding all along the gulf coast
1172. LargoFl
1173. LargoFl
7 day for the Tampa Bay area.....
1174. ncstorm
00z CMC





06z GFS
Thunder-sleet in OKC right now

Everyone have a great Thursday. Aussie, have a great Friday.
According to the NWS in Wichita, the city has received 10 inches. Snow is still coming down very hard and is expected to do through the day.

Haruna is very slowly approaching landfall, and continuing to maintain a large, ragged, cloudy eye:



As close as it is, it still likely has another day or so over water, but it probably won't strengthen, if anything it'll weaken.
The GFS wants to bring a major bomb of a storm into NW Australia in about 6 days. Other models are also showing something in that area, but strength, timing, and placement are inconsistent between the different models. The GFS is by far the strongest though, there'd be problems if this verified:



Definitely an area to watch in the coming days.
It took two years to get winter to return and now it does not want to leave. GFS Ensembles keep cooler than average temperatures across much of the East through early to mid-March.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It took two years to get winter to return and now it does not want to leave. GFS Ensembles keep cooler than average temperatures across much of the East through early to mid-March.

Guess a groundhog named Phil is wrong...
1183. pcola57
Good Morning All..
Can tell by Radar things are going to get rough for some folks today..
Quite a mixed bag..





1184. pcola57
Current Jet Stream Analysis..





1185. pcola57
Plenty of moisture to work with..
High Dew Points..
Dry slot near central Texas..





1186. ncstorm

Buckled pavement closes US 89 south of Page
Detour will add 45 miles around closure using US 160 and SR 98


February 20, 2013
ShareThis

PHOENIX – US 89 in northern Arizona is closed because a 150-foot section of pavement buckled this morning about 25 miles south of Page, according to the Arizona Department of Transportation.

The cause is not related to weather and may be a geologic event.

US 89 is closed northbound at US 89A, which takes traffic west toward Jacob Lake. In Page, US 89 is closed at the junction with State Route 98.

The alternate route to Page will take drivers east on US 160 to SR 98 (about 50 miles) and north on SR 98 to Page. The detour is about 45 miles longer than the direct route.

ADOT crews are on scene and are deploying geotechnical engineers to investigate. It is not known at this time how long the road will be closed.

For the latest highway conditions across Arizona, visit ADOT’s Travel Information site at www.az511.gov or call 5-1-1.

View map of the closure area and detour route.





1190. pcola57
New Drought Monitor Analysis..



Last weeks Image for comparison..



ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 210942
SPC AC 210942

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 AM CST THU FEB 21 2013

VALID 241200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
WITHIN PERSISTENT BROADER SCALE UPPER TROUGHING...IN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF A SPLIT FLOW EMERGING FROM THE PACIFIC...MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS WILL DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND. AS IT DOES...IT APPEARS LIKELY TO
GRADUALLY COME IN PHASE WITH ANOTHER STRONG JET STREAK EMERGING FROM
THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC...THEN TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BEFORE LIFTING TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE
PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS APPEARS PROBABLE ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SIGNIFICANT SECONDARY WAVE WILL FORM
ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE ADVANCING/REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE VARIABILITY LINGERS AMONG THE MODELS
AND MODEL ENSEMBLES...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT PEAK SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY...AS A MOIST WARM
SECTOR OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF STATES.
DEEP LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE AND SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE RISK FOR
DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES.

..KERR.. 02/21/2013
1192. ncstorm


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0186
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0722 AM CST THU FEB 21 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SE TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 211322Z - 211445Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE THIS MORNING ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND A WATCH COULD
BECOME NECESSARY BY MID MORNING.

DISCUSSION...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NWD WITH THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS SE TX...IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK TRIPLE POINT
LOW JUST SW OF ACT. A SPECIAL 12Z SOUNDING FROM CLL SHOWED BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S...BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE...RESULTING IN MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG WITH LITTLE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. OTHER REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS FARTHER S SHOWED A MUCH
WARMER ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND STRONGER CAP...THOUGH THE CLL
SOUNDING IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE FWD SOUNDING ABOVE 850 MB.
THUS...IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...WHICH COULD BE AIDED BY A SUBTLE APPARENT SPEED MAX OVER
S CENTRAL TX PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IF STORMS CAN MOVE EWD ALONG
THE WARM FRONT...THERE WILL BE A CONDITIONAL RISK OF
TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. STILL...THE PRIMARY QUESTION WILL BE THE
DEGREE OF DEVELOPMENT FARTHER S INTO THE WARM SECTOR...SINCE STORMS
FORMING NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE RATHER QUICKLY OVER THE
COOLER/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FARTHER NE. N OF THE WARM
FRONT...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS.

..THOMPSON/GOSS.. 02/21/2013
1194. pcola57
Quoting LargoFl:
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
145 PM EST WED FEB 20 2013 /245 PM CST WED FEB 20 2013/

...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK...

IRST EVENT.

AVERAGE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY...

SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.........5 TO 8 INCHES
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.........5 TO 8 INCHES

SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA......3 TO 5 INCHES
SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.....3 TO 4 INCHES
FLORIDA BIG BEND..........2 TO 4 INCHES



Wow..
I really hope it's somewhat less for us here..
Looks like it's gonna be soggy for sure..
1195. LargoFl
Quoting pcola57:


Wow..
I really hope it's somewhat less for us here..
Looks like it's gonna be soggy for sure..
..well the flood warnings are up Pcola..you stay safe up there,some models drop 7 inches plus..gee
1196. LargoFl
guess this says it all, Heavy rain,slow moving storm..
1197. LargoFl
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
358 AM CST THU FEB 21 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

.A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS
AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL GENERATE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST.
1198. LargoFl

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

* FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON

* PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA AND ALL OF CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE
WATCH AREA WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDARTOWN TO
CUMMING TO HOMER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA TO AROUND 4 INCHES OVER
CENTRAL GEORGIA.

THE WATCH TIME PERIOD IS FOR THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. A SECOND ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY
RAIN MAY ADD ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WATCH AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS MAY REQUIRE AN EXTENSION OR ANOTHER
WATCH ISSUANCE.

* LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THE HEAVY RAIN
REPEATEDLY MOVES OVER THE SAME AREA. ALSO...STORM DRAINS...
DITCHES...AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY BECOME QUICKLY CLOGGED WITH
DEBRIS AND CAUSE EXTENSIVE STREET FLOODING.

WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING OF THE LARGER CREEKS OR RIVERS IS MOST
LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH THE EXPECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE CHATTAHOOCHEE...FLINT...OCMULGEE AND
OCONEE RIVER BASINS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES...MAINLY
SOUTH OF ATLANTA TO ATHENS.

HOWEVER...DUE TO WET ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS...ISOLATED
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING MAY AFFECT FLOOD PRONE ROADS AND STRUCTURES
NEARBY. THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE ABBEVILLE AREA SINCE THE
OCMULGEE RIVER WAS IN MINOR FLOOD JUST THIS WEEK.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It took two years to get winter to return and now it does not want to leave. GFS Ensembles keep cooler than average temperatures across much of the East through early to mid-March.

That's almost completely opposite the CPC March outlook that just came out a while ago:

CPC"
1200. LargoFl
I guess if you live in a flood zone, from louisianna to georgia..its time to prepare Now..the possible heavy rains and stalled front over you creates a very dangerous situation for you folks,stay safe folks,7-8 inches or more will surely put those rivers and streams over their banks huh..wow
1201. LargoFl
RAP model......................
1202. LargoFl
NAM model....................................
1203. LargoFl
GFS,Stll raining in same places..................
1204. LargoFl
GFS at 72 hours,...wow
1205. LargoFl
...DISCUSSION...
WITHIN PERSISTENT BROADER SCALE UPPER TROUGHING...IN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF A SPLIT FLOW EMERGING FROM THE PACIFIC...MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS WILL DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND. AS IT DOES...IT APPEARS LIKELY TO
GRADUALLY COME IN PHASE WITH ANOTHER STRONG JET STREAK EMERGING FROM
THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC...THEN TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BEFORE LIFTING TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE
PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS APPEARS PROBABLE ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SIGNIFICANT SECONDARY WAVE WILL FORM
ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE ADVANCING/REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE VARIABILITY LINGERS AMONG THE MODELS
AND MODEL ENSEMBLES...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT PEAK SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY...AS A MOIST WARM
SECTOR OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF STATES.
DEEP LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE AND SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE RISK FOR
DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES.
1207. LargoFl
one week from today,yet another one forming......
the storms of the north pac did not delivered the needed goods this winter. oahu waimea bays eddie would go surf tournament most likely wont be held. they need 20foot plus extra large swell and decent conditions. this is not unusual i think its every other yr they get what they need.
1209. LargoFl
GS..your not in a flood zone are you?
This ain't good.
Ice


Hail


Goodnight folks. Catch ya's in the AM.
Stay safe Stay warm, take heed of all warnings.
1211. ncstorm
The CPC 6-10 day outlooks are modified every day. To hold an outlook that is a month ahead as verifiable just dosen't seem feasible..jmo..

"6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster."
1212. LargoFl
this warning from the NWS about says it all huh..stay safe folks....................THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD
EVENT OF COMPARABLE MAGNITUDE OR GREATER THAN LAST WEEK IS
POSSIBLE INTO NEXT WEEK.
"looks around.Sees nothing of interest going on".
1215. LargoFl
1216. LargoFl
1217. LargoFl
Another possible Nor'easter....................THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. RIGHT NOW...THE PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO BE
MAINLY RAIN AT THE COAST AND A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND
FREEZING RAIN INLAND. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS FAR INTERIOR ZONES.

THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS EVENT THOUGH
AND VARIATIONS IN TRACK AND MAGNITUDE AS WELL AS TIMING WILL LEAD
TO CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TYPE. MONITOR THE LATEST
NWS FORECASTS FOR UPDATES.
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1222. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A STRONG COASTAL STORM TO IMPACT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS GIVEN THAT THE STORM IS STILL NEARLY 3 DAYS
IN THE FUTURE...SO EXACT PTYPES/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

THE STORM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY WET SNOW TO THE
REGION. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE NORTH OF
THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE AND AWAY FROM THE COAST. HOWEVER...THE
THREAT FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND
POWER OUTAGES WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW OCCURS.

STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST MAY ALSO REQUIRE THE NEED FOR SOME
WIND HEADLINES.

FINALLY...COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE EASTERN MA COASTLINE WITH THE HIGHEST RISK DURING THE SUNDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

$$
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
...DISCUSSION...
WITHIN PERSISTENT BROADER SCALE UPPER TROUGHING...IN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF A SPLIT FLOW EMERGING FROM THE PACIFIC...MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS WILL DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND. AS IT DOES...IT APPEARS LIKELY TO
GRADUALLY COME IN PHASE WITH ANOTHER STRONG JET STREAK EMERGING FROM
THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC...THEN TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BEFORE LIFTING TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE
PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS APPEARS PROBABLE ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SIGNIFICANT SECONDARY WAVE WILL FORM
ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE ADVANCING/REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE VARIABILITY LINGERS AMONG THE MODELS
AND MODEL ENSEMBLES...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT PEAK SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY...AS A MOIST WARM
SECTOR OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF STATES.
DEEP LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE AND SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE RISK FOR
DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES.


Looks like mainly S alabama and the panhandle of florida area....neither the GFS or ECMWF shows warmth into the mississippi valley, or much warm air over the region....not sure it'll be a big event... or what the SPC was talking about with the "moist warm air" overspreading the central and eastern gulf states.
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1228. pcola57
NASA Astronomy Picture of the Day



Gravitational Tractor
Illustration Credit & Copyright: Dan Durda (FIAAA, B612 Foundation)

Explanation: How would you change the course of an Earth-threatening asteroid? One possibility - a massive spacecraft that uses gravity as a towline - is illustrated in this artist's vision of a gravitational tractor in action. In the hypothetical scenario worked out in 2005 by Edward Lu and Stanley Love at NASA's Johnson Space Center, a 20 ton nuclear-electric spacecraft tows a 200 meter diameter asteroid by simply hovering near the asteroid. The spacecraft's ion drive thrusters are canted away from the surface. Their slight but steady thrust would gradually and predictably alter the course of the tug and asteroid, coupled by their mutual gravitational attraction. While it sounds like the stuff of science fiction, ion drives do power existing spacecraft. One advantage of using a gravitational tractor is that it would work regardless of the asteroid's structure. Given sufficient warning and time, a gravitational tractor could deflect the path of an asteroid known to be on a collision course enough to miss planet Earth.
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A strong nor'easter could develop out of this...
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Tromsø is positioning itself as an emerging support hub for the new Arctic frontier, with research institutes, a university, and impressive infrastructure.

The Norwegian government also seems to want to showcase the city’s role in the opening of the Arctic region to increasing exploitation of resources. So much so, in fact, that it covered journalists’ travel expenses to attend the Arctic Frontiers conference.

I received an invitation to participate in late fall. I was torn. Journalists are supposed to maintain independence from sources. On the other hand, journalistic organizations have cut back so much that there is very little money available to pay for reporters to cover issues like the polar paradox.

Here was the dilemma that I and other journalists faced: Decline the invitation to have travel expenses paid, in which case the plans now being made to exploit resources in a warming Arctic would receive less attention than they deserved.

Or accept the invitation, be transparent about it, and do our best to air out the serious issues surrounding the polar paradox honestly and fairly — but leave ourselves open to criticism that we had lost our independence.

Welcome to another paradox of the emerging Anthropocene epoch: The folks who are eager to develop their Arctic oil reserves — which will add to global warming — were more than willing to help us cover the issue with travel support. There were no strings attached. (Other than my own loss of sleep while wrestling with the issue.)
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1237. pcola57
GOES East..
Plenty of moisture..
Water Vapor still showing Dry Slot in Texas..



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1242. dabirds
Feel for the folks in AR, had one like that after Thanksgiving a few years back, took almost a week to get power back. Hoping for mainly snow in S C IL. StL radio saying should be getting there in an hour or so, radar shows a little closer, but may have to wet the atmosphere a little first. Plenty things of interest happening out here.
That's a lot of lightning:

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JeffMasters has created a new entry.
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1247. pcola57