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Salience: On the Eve of the 2016 Election

By: Dr. Ricky Rood, 5:10 AM GMT on November 05, 2016

Salience: On the Eve of the 2016 Election

A different version of this blog appears on ClimatePolicy.org

Salience is a word that in the social sciences has come to mean relevance, or perhaps, goodness of fit of knowledge to a particular problem. I use salience, probably overuse it, in class when I talk about making climate-change data relevant to planning and decision making. In conversational English, salience refers to something being important or most notable.

On my list of to-do blogs was a reflection and analysis of climate-change policy during the Obama administration, and then a discussion of the climate-change positions of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. However, the way the election has evolved, climate change and environmental policy do not appear to be very salient to choices at hand. There is certainly no meaningful nuance of policy and positions from any analysis I might provide.

About a year ago, I was writing about some of our students at University of Michigan preparing to go to the Conference of the Parties in Paris. Even at that time, I commented about our behavior seeming to be a concerted effort to accelerate our decline into the Dark Age. That particular comment was motivated by the accumulated impacts of the anti-science movement. More broadly, however, there is an anti-knowledge movement in the U.S., which is dangerous. Science-based knowledge and knowledge in general has become conflated with political and cultural groups of people. It has become tribal knowledge. Knowledge that is, therefore, untrusted.

During the decade I have been writing blogs, I have taken a number of road trips across the Plains. I have noted a number of times how the world I live in day to day is irrelevant to what I experience on these trips. My world is full of people talking about the importance of their research, the importance of climate change, science, policy, politics, communication, the Washington Post, the New York Times, and the Daily Show. My world is caught up in self-importance, knowing, and the seeing the future and what needs to be done.

At times, I have said that what goes on in Washington seems completely disconnected from the reality in the center of the country – not salient. However, that is not case. Driving across the country shows the impacts of energy policy. There are great fields of wind turbines, huge piles of corn at ethanol plants, and flaring oil wells. Of course, our agricultural policy makes the enormous farms and ranches possible. There was a time when the flirtation with a carbon market was labeling grasslands as carbon management. For the most part, energy policy might make sense; climate policy does not. For those who are haves, climate policy seems a financial threat for, yet another, manageable weather risk. For those who are have nots, climate policy is simply not salient.

Climate policy is entangled with other values associated with its tribe. Knowledge is in a stew full of emotion, beliefs, self-identification, and cultural values.

The immediacy and urgency of the Presidential election have removed issues such as climate change from the public clamor, if not, in fact, as a decision point in the election. We have arrived at a point that the specifics of climate change, science policy, and environmental protection seem less of an issue than the preservation of our efforts to have policy and regulation anchored in describable, objective knowledge. Science-based knowledge, deductive reasoning, inductive reasoning, and objective analysis are all viewed as tainted by the prejudices, interests, and manipulations of corrupt individuals and institutions. We devolve to cult of personality, exaggerated attacks of character, innuendo, fear, and corroborating fantasies posed as reports of facts and events.

After November 8, 2016, however, climate change, science policy, and environmental protection will be of essential importance to our economic wellbeing and societal success. As we move forward in a world of too many people, uneven resources, and unsustainable practices, knowledge-based decision making will be at the foundation of stability and security.

Many scientific organizations have compared Hillary Clinton’s and Donald Trump’s approach to science and science policy (see below). The interesting nuances of Democratic and Republican approaches to science since World War II are not present in these analyses. Ms Clinton’s approach is knowledge-based; Mr. Trump’s approach is whim-based and unpredictable. The choice has never been so definitive.

r


For those still centered on climate and science:

ScienceDebate.org: Candidates Answer 2016 Questions

Scientific American: Grading the Presidential Candidates on Science

Scientific American: Trump Versus Clinton: Worlds Apart on Science

IFLScience: American Presidential Stances on Science Issues

National Geographic: Top Takeaways From Presidential Candidates’ Views on Science

University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR): Federal Transition 2017

Forbes: Marshall Shepherd: Weather And Climate Priorities Facing The Next US President

Climate Change Politics

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

That describes it accurately. Just my 2 cents, this isn't an election about science.

For 36 years presidential politics have promised improvements to the economy, make better paying jobs, make health care affordable, and make our kids smarter. Actually it seems like education was hardly mentioned this election cycle. Anyways, people aren't willing to hear anyone say that anymore and want to upset the apple cart. Since the early 80's, factories started their consolidation and movement across the border to save a buck and the prime directive for any company anywhere is to destroy unions and hire dozens of VPs with the directive to squeeze a buck from all the processes involved.
A politician talking about health care doesn't get heard when the voter truly wants in their heart for everyone to get cancer and a politician talking about climate change isn't heard by someone that wants the world to burn. Trump can win because he is an insult.
What a depressing election season, I want it to be over peacefully.
A rather good article from the "Low Country".
When a City Stops Arguing About Climate Change and Starts Planning
Charleston, South Carolina, is adapting to a hotter, wetter and riskier future.


RISING TIDES AND A NEW STRATEGY
About three dozen times a year, the city of Charleston floods during king tides. The floods block streets and shut down businesses for days at a time. A half century ago, Charleston averaged about four days of nuisance flooding a year. In 1995, Charleston had 18 flood days. Last year, it jumped to 38 days, according to recent studies by William Sweet, a NOAA oceanographer. In 30 years, Charleston will likely see 180 days of nuisance flooding.

Link
It won't matter who wins in the long game.
The long game is lost.
Our system is about creating your own reality or to distort the reality of the other.

Seriously, how can you convince 49-51 percent of the voting public they need to focus on long-term policy when they create and live in their own version of the world?

We're guilty of this too, if we make broad assumptions that a reality exists where sweeping reforms are established to mitigate the really ugly AGW impacts we've got baked into the system. Also when we cheer the window dressing, we help sustain the ruse.

I assume rock weathering is our geologic solution, and I won't be disappointed! ;-)
Here's a funny one (ok, kind of). Read this article :
Unprecedented Spike in CO2 Levels in 2015 (Climate Central, March 2016).
Now look at this : CO2 (.gif)
Source.
One of the key predictions of hypothesis , was an increase in extreme precipitation events, what is going on in Siberia now is clear proof of that very thing.

Districts like Abyisky and Srednekolymsky have faced five months of snow in just four weeks.

Link


“As the world gathers in Morocco for the historic first meeting under the Paris agreement – called “COP22” but now also “CMA1” – it does so with the unprecedented involvement of corporate interests who have fought climate action around the world, funded climate change denial and whose fundamental interest is in extracting and burning as much fossil fuel as possible…..
representatives of companies such as ExxonMobil, Chevron, Peabody, BP, Shell and RioTinto will have unquestioned access to most discussions in Marrakech, will be called upon for advice and will be walking the corridors and holding private discussions with countries that are trying to move the world to stop consuming the products those companies have based their businesses on….
Jesse Bragg from Corporate Accountability International says it is clear those groups are driven by a profit motive and not by the desire to curb carbon emissions, and so have a conflict of interest.”

Link
Thanks for this Ricky.

This election is as tight as a bull's ass at fly time.
Another very well written article of distinction, Ricky. I'm still in awe at how your writing can be so placidly contemplative while also jolting the reader with sobering consequences regarding the subject at hand.

An amazing thing happened to me a few weeks ago. I have been so racked with wave after wave of negative news regarding this election, that after I mailed in my absentee ballot in October, I imposed a full news embargo on myself. I have taken steps to remove all news links from my browsers and handheld devices, programmed the television to avoid news programs and talk shows by activating the parental controls, and temporarily suspended my newspaper subscription. Even my mail is now being held for general delivery at the post office until November 9th to avoid political mailers. About the only thing I have to contend with is the occasional hit-and-run TV advert, and a doorbell ring with someone toting a flyer. The former is dealt with by the mute button, and the latter semi—successfully fended off with a "no solicitation" doormat.

What an amazing, quiet life I currently live. While I'll be lifting the embargo towards the end of this week, I'm relishing my current state of zen by staying within the calm eye of this political storm flailing around me. I think I'll name this storm "Godzilla"...
Quoting 11. weatherhistorian:

Thanks for this Ricky.

This election is as tight as a bull's ass at fly time.


That's a good one, Chris. I live in Texas and I have never heard that one before. ;)
Reading At global climate talks, patience blends with urgency
At least that’s how many climate experts see it. They anticipate the conference will feature both a push for faster global action on emissions and an underlying practical reality: On some fronts, patience will be a vital asset in building needed consensus.
This is the kind of false equivalency in news reporting that gave us Trump. There is only one practical reality and currently it is not on the side of the Paris agreement. The carbon budget for 2C is quickly running out and there is at present no practical means for capturing and sequestering CO2.
Quoting 15. bappit:

Reading At global climate talks, patience blends with urgency
At least that's how many climate experts see it. They anticipate the conference will feature both a push for faster global action on emissions and an underlying practical reality: On some fronts, patience will be a vital asset in building needed consensus.
This is the kind of false equivalency in news reporting that gave us Trump. There is only one practical reality and currently it is not on the side of the Paris agreement. The carbon budget for 2C is quickly running out and there is at present no practical means for capturing and sequestering CO2.

I agree with you. From the article: "Even with the pledges made in Paris, the world is heading toward a likely temperature rise of 2.9 to 3.4 degrees C this century, the UN Environment Program said Thursday."

Here's what's at stake :
Turn Down the Heat: Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts, and the Case for Resilience
World Bank (w/ video).


Turn Down The Heat - Why a 4 C Warmer World Must be Avoided (.pdf document - 6 Mb file)
World Bank, 2012.
A Report for the World Bank by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics.

From climateanalytics.org's summary of this report :
This report provides a snapshot of recent scientific literature and new analyses of likely impacts and risks that would be associated with a 4 Celsius warming within this century. It is a rigorous attempt to outline a range of risks, focusing on developing countries and especially the poor. A 4 C world would be one of unprecedented heat waves, severe drought, and major floods in many regions, with serious impacts on ecosystems and associated services. But with action, a 4 C world can be avoided and we can likely hold warming below 2 C.

From the introduction :
"Levels greater than 4 C warming could be possible within this century should climate sensitivity be higher, or the carbon cycle and other climate system feedbacks more positive, than anticipated."

Turn Down The Heat - Confronting the New Climate Normal (.pdf document - 17 Mb file)
World Bank, 2014.
A Report for the World Bank by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics.

From climateanalytics.org's summary of this report :
The data show that dramatic climate changes, heat and weather extremes are already impacting people, damaging crops and coastlines and putting food, water, and energy security at risk. Across the three regions studied in this report, record-breaking temperatures are occurring more frequently, rainfall has increased in intensity in some places, while drought-prone regions are getting dryer. If the planet continues warming to 4 C, climatic conditions, heat and other weather extremes considered highly unusual or unprecedented today would become the new climate normal-a world of increased risks and instability.
I remember, long ago, reading about the temporary atmospheric cooling possible after a limited exchange of nuclear weapons. This was after the 1980s nuclear winter hype had passed, but before AGW impacts became discussed routinely.

I went off to find the old article, thinking I wouldn't find it. It was in a military journal and they aren't all indexed that well.

Then I found this, by WU's own Jeff Masters!

The Effect of Nuclear War on Climate
https://www.wunderground.com/resources/climate/nu ke.asp

18. vis0
This blog does have a political lean so i hope this comment is not removed/censored.

As to the near future::
Yes i see how the late investigation odds are changed the outcome of the election yet that is in the past.  Only some uncovering by wikkileaks (yeah right) of 2 close results states could change the final results.  My inside source sez in ~yr watch leaks from Russian sources damage Trump and we'll lean that Julian Assange was used (at worst acted as an agent) as after he ran away n (as in not wanting to be arrested) Russia feed him (wikkileaks) some neutral inside info Assange fell for it since it made him look "smart".  Russia then just feed Assange negative Clinton stuff (most made up illegalities as to Clinton eMails) and soon enough Trump and Assange will find out they were dooped. My question is will Assange be used to tear in Trump and if Assange figure that he was used will he at least allow himself to be used to balance out the damage he did (the noblest thing he can do in the minds of some) or we Assange stop passing out Russian feed leaks through Wikkileaks thus leaving Russia to find someone else?
 
Now for the now::
 
There are some (many) that only learn through experience.
My parents are from a country life (in Puerto Rico) mom more religious but they cannot get a hold of science (mainly Mother) unless they can touch it, smell it feel it. Well 90% of science cannot be smelled, felt, touched since one cannot survive in space. They (particularly Mother) believe in religious words cause smooth talking people [present it, i interpret the "wurd of Gawd" to mean the FACTUAL proven areas of Science, thus if one spreads the word of gawd one is spreading FACTUAL true n tested science not religious points of views. Example 1+1 =2 AS TO PHYSICS that is a "wurd of gawd" as 1+1=2  AS TO PHYSICS in ANY LANGUAGE be it here on this Earth or another planet with complex beings.
 
My sis thinks "they" (people whom are uneducated/undereducated be it unwillingly or willingly). Some might be but i cannot judge as some of those she thinks are stupid are people whom would leave my sis in the dust as to planting and growing the crops that make the delicious foods she/we eat so they are not stupid i think they are just "down home folks" that know much more as to taking care of themselves as country folk  and since most of their lives they have taught themselves to only believe what they can feel through the main physical senses they prefer someone whom is them-self when they talk.  If something changed how they make their final decisions from pre WWII to after WWII i think its 3 things
1) pre WWII down home folks had a thinking to listen respect those educated as in learning of thongs that the down home folks where not into as going to the moon, hence e you saw country folk so proud when USofA went to the moon (so i'm told ; - P)
2) What i call "the great white lie" of the 1970s that taxes are bad for you together with educated people are trying to hoodwink the country folk, latter done through Sunday mass i.e. moral majority as history proved members wee not moral and there never THEN was a majority.
3) You guessed it either the Earth becoming sick via 2 "ethereal" interaction causes animals EVEN MORE SO the complex animal (humans for now) to become ill in the thought patterns add to that a man made version which i stated since a JHS 104 NYC science c lass report i wrote as to how a portable haarp used by Gangs (higher intelligent gang members, street (smart) gang members are the look outs**) since the 1960's is leading to rising ADD ARTIFICIALLY by 20-25% (i think aGW has risen ADD by 3-6% by 2132 AD IF portable haarp is not figured out by the FBI/CIA (internationally) Humans NATURALLY will developed ADD at 25% NOT a good thing if you want evolution to stay ahead of de-evolution (Devolution...stop singing Freedom of Choice by Devo, Wxu member TWI).
 
Does not mean the person doing the talking (in this case politicking) is good nor bad just when one is themselves if those listening do not have a keen sense of historical intuition they fall for the words of the smooth talker that is being themselves cause the energy (not words) flowing is smooth. Like when young ladies more than young men fall for the "wrong guy" sindrome or syndrome.
 
You saw it with Ronald Reagan NOT with Prez. Bush Sr., with Prez.  Clinton with Young Prez. Bush, with Prez. Obama and even Bernie...oh and many car sales people...
 
(which is the big line i sent Clinton Campaign just after FBI sytated new letters have nothing new but they never used as i think if Mrs. Clinton uses "Trump is acting like the car salesmen (person) selling a lemon country folk that are moderate/independent have that floating in their thoughts as they voted and remember how when they where young a smooth talking car dealer sold them a lemon and would vote against Trump be it for Johnson or Clinton and i thought that line could counter-act the late FBI investigation but as usual who listen to vis0 uh or maybe it was lost in the eMail ;- P)
 
...that are the best at selling their words.  Sadly what i call persona intuition is not 100% affective in determining how a person will do in helping all (as to politicians)  when "persona intuition" is used by it self BUT that is what humans used before we began to grow intellectually so its still in our "genes" and is not a bad thing in itself but not the best when used by itself to determine the qualities of a another person/living thing.   Best is the blend of persona intuition and historical intuition.
 
Why is not persona intuition by itself good?
 
Cause that means one can elect a person that is  GOOD COMMUNICATOR even if their words don't make sense TO SOME and/or intellectuals.
 
 One last example, President Jimmy Carter.  
Look at how he does so much good at helping those in need (respects women, acts  as the "good" word mentions as in helping other.  But guess what he was not a good communicator as President so a communicator (actor) won, don't knock actors maybe the opposite of Trump as to first presented persona  will be an actor that "the other side" and moderates will like and vote her in.   NOT COMPARING Trump to the next 2 examples GOT THAT (there hope i communicated the last 2 words) but 2 extreme examples of people that were themselves when speaking had the furthest apart views from each other but their ability to communicate brought out the masses was Hitler and Dr. Martin Luther King. (NOT comparing intelligence just ability to bring out the masses)
 
 
In closing if you have a mind that is centered on historical intuition and are hoping that no president become   then EDUCATE YOURSELF so that when you run for president your mind flows not just as to facts and sciences but so the words coming out of your mouth come out with ease thus allowing not to change everyone's mind (that is impossible) but opening the minds of majority so those in the middle hear and accept your ideas so they can be tested once elected.  Look Obama won by more percentage, the difference was Obama could Communicate to those in the middle...okay so could Michelle.
 
 
If you are thinking of leaving the USofA due to the political climate you are helping those that want extreme anarchy THINK of how people in
Concentration camps whom sacrificed their life to get out the news of Hitlers evil Germany and helped pass the word to the world of such evil or today's unjust style social thinking that weighs heavy on mainly African Americans (people of colour)  yet those human beings go out and work to maintain the Good America so work to make America Good (for all)  again.
 
 
BTW where is my cookie, notice my latest comment on my "zilly blog" (link auto scrolls page THERE to comment in question) had it this close though i thought a 3 electoral votes state would push one or the other over and i thought Russia (hackers) would interfere with compu'r reading of votes in DC to create a tie as none would get to 270 as a 3 electoral college state would not be counted due to hacking concerns.
 
Sincerely a terrible communicator and good nut,
vis0
welp, looks like that's about it for the climate. it was a nice planet while it lasted.
re post 18

There is no logic to apply here. People are gullible and hypocritical.

They will favor myth over fact.

They will almost always default to a position that is ripe with hypocrisy out of self preservation.

We got a sledgehammer. We did same in 68, 72, 80, 84, 00 and 04. In between those we got technocrats who liked to tinker around the edges while being polite in our own house and using a sledgehammer overseas to maintain empire. This choice was between a new sledgehammer and a known technocrat could be called from a mile off.

The climate was off the rails before, and any radical action was at least 20 years off when it was needed 20 years ago.
A really must see article from the NYT. Interactive, and truly sobering

Greenland Is Melting Away

ON THE GREENLAND ICE SHEET — The midnight sun still gleamed at 1 a.m. across the brilliant expanse of the Greenland ice sheet. Brandon Overstreet, a doctoral candidate in hydrology at the University of Wyoming, picked his way across the frozen landscape, clipped his climbing harness to an anchor in the ice and crept toward the edge of a river that rushed downstream toward an enormous sinkhole.

If he fell in, “the death rate is 100 percent,” said Mr. Overstreet’s friend and fellow researcher, Lincoln Pitcher.




Link
A warm climate is more sensitive to changes in atmospheric CO2 - Phys.org, November 9.
(...) Using these estimates based on Earth's paleoclimate sensitivity, the authors computed the warming over the next 85 years that could result from a human-induced, business-as-usual greenhouse gas emission scenario. The researchers project that by the year 2100, global temperatures will rise 5.9C (about 10.5F) above pre-industrial values.
(...) "The only way out is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible," concluded Friedrich.
Quoting 22. BaltimoreBrian:

*** The Global Dangers of Trump's Climate Denial


It has been said here, by me and at least one other, that when climate actions come, they will be authoritarian and wrapped in a flag.

I still think that true, although not this time.

But if you look at the voters who got their candidate in and see how quickly they were mobilized by bold, authoritarian claims, you can see the distant future where the climate action mantle is claimed by a right-populist, unbound by truth, to rise to power. They will "sweep it all up, things related and unrelated." We've seen it before.

This is a great article though. It isn't skinny on details, even though it's from NatGeo :D
Could 1 term of trump put us over the tipping point as far as the global temp. Would it be irreversible? It seems that we are already on that brink. I just heard that the U.S. is backing out of the Paris Agreement asap. WHAT IS HE THINKING!!!
A new source of science information: Anthropocene Magazine
Down the rabbit hole we go..together.

🌈

Lisa Simpson nailed it over a decade ago.
Today's abridged selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment. Visit my blog for today's complete selection in comment #1971.



*** Climate change: Nations will push ahead with plans despite Trump

*** The Global Dangers of Trump's Climate Denial

*** Earth's plants are countering some of the effects of climate change: More photosynthesis means a slower rise in carbon dioxide level...for now

Reconstructing Greenland's climate

*** Prospects for the Climate, and Environmentalism, Under President Trump

* Climate, human influence conspired in Lake Urmia's decline

!!! Nearly 600,000 Children Die From Breathing Toxic Air Every Year (with video)

*** Remote sensing data reveals hundreds more species at risk of extinction

*** Coastal cities at risk from rapid sea-level rise with warming above two degrees Celsius

!!! Record hot year may be the new normal by 2025: No matter what we do, it is inevitable that the record hot year of 2015 will soon become an average year

*** Agulhas Current is widening, not strengthening as climate warms: Study has important implications for global climate

!!! Probing subterranean depths of Earth's carbon cycle



*** What it would really mean if Trump pulls the U.S. out of the Paris climate agreement

!!! Donald Trump Could Put Climate Change on Course for 'Danger Zone'

*** When Bats Look for Meals Near Wind Power, Bats Die

!!! Trump poised to erase Obama policies: Here's what Trump has pledged to do by executive fiat in key policy areas

!!! How Trump Could Walk Away From Decades of Climate Deals (with video)

* Africa: Marrakech UN Conference Spotlights Water, the 'First Victim' of Climate Change, As Part of the Solution
Quoting 25. Newbeliever:

Could 1 term of trump put us over the tipping point as far as the global temp. Would it be irreversible? It seems that we are already on that brink. I just heard that the U.S. is backing out of the Paris Agreement asap. WHAT IS HE THINKING!!!


I suppose that this will largely depend on how the rest of the world responds to this. I know that the ship seems to have sailed on this one, but we can still catch it before it gets into deeper waters.
From the Bering to Maine, Hot Oceans Are Killing the Puffin

“The Bering Sea has been off-the-charts warm. We’ve never seen anything like this. We’re in uncharted territory. We’re in the midst of an extraordinary time.” Nate Mantua, an ecologist at NOAA’s Southwest Fisheries Science Center in Santa Cruz, California in this National Geographic article.

Link
An open letter to the president-elect from Democratic Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse:

An Open Letter To President-elect Donald J. Trump

This is an open letter to President-elect Trump. I want you to know that America expects better of you as President than what it saw in the campaign you ran. You are now to be our President, and that brings new responsibilities. I hope you feel the call of history to live up to them.

That history calls on you to remember that America is a wonderfully diverse country. We are Christian and Jewish and Muslim and Hindu and none of the above. We are gay and straight. We are black, brown, white and innumerable combinations. We are young and old, female and male, with and without disabilities, urban and rural, and liberal and conservative. Every one of us is an equal American. Every one of us deserves a voice that our President will hear.

I am gravely concerned about climate change. You campaigned as blissfully unconcerned. As President, you will hear from our military and all our national labs and from NASA (the folks who put a rover on Mars and may know a little bit about real science) how deadly serious this is. Listen to them. There is a grown-up world of people beyond the creepy alt-right and the fossil fuel industry who actually know what they are talking about. You may go to any major university and confirm what they will tell you. You have responsibilities as President. Remember the full-page ad you signed in the New York Times in 2009 calling for strong climate action. “We support your effort,” your ad said to the Obama administration, “to ensure meaningful and effective measures to control climate change, an immediate challenge facing the United States and the world today. Please don’t postpone the earth. If we fail to act now, it is scientifically irrefutable that there will be catastrophic and irreversible consequences for humanity and our planet.” The signatories did not include just you, but your children, Donald, Jr., Eric, and Ivanka. Their future and their reputations are in your hands too.

More than anything else, I want you to know how you have scared people, particularly young women. I can’t tell you how many women and girls I’ve heard from, or heard about from their parents, in the first days after your election. Little girls who cried when they heard you had been elected. Students who wept together, comforted by their teachers. Mothers who cried, and hid their crying from their kids. I heard from friends, family, nieces, college students, mothers and grandmothers, and from old friends reporting about their spouses and daughters. I received a flood of texts and emails. Over and over, they spoke of tears and fear. Over and over they repeated the same words: “scared,” “frightened,” “terrified.” Of you. It has broken my heart to hear so much of this in the last few days, and to try to reassure them that it will somehow be okay. These youngsters are not faking it or making it up. This is heartfelt and widespread. You may not have intended it, but you came across as an ogre to them in this campaign. You frightened them. You frighten them now. This is real. You have a lot of damage to repair.

I don’t need to say what dark impulses you have stirred that Latino and African-American friends recognize. The dog whistle is not just heard by the racists. It is heard loud and clear by people for whom racism is a regular fact of their lives, people who grew up with different expectations and fears in their lives because of that racism, people who heard the Jim Crow stories from their parents and grandparents, people who now have to have “the talk” with their sons. They are Americans, too, and this experience is in their lives, at their hearts.

Finally, please also bear in mind that Secretary Clinton got more votes than you did. Without the electoral college, she’d be President. If past presidential years are any guide, there were likely more votes cast nationwide for House Democratic candidates than for Republican candidates. In 2012, House Democrats won the national vote by over a million votes. Without REDMAP’s gerrymandering, Speaker Pelosi would have the gavel. It will take a while to know whether more votes were cast for Democratic candidates for the Senate in total than for the Republican candidates, but it’s possible that Democrats got more votes than Republicans across the board in both elected branches of the federal government. Either way, working together is the right thing to do, and will make you successful, not trying to drive a harsh, partisan agenda from a position of having lost the popular vote.

You will find that Democrats love America just as much as you do. We want to work with you. I believe that the role of President of the United States is vastly different from the role of candidate, and that the Donald Trump of the campaign will not succeed as President. The campaign is over, and real responsibilities lie ahead. For all our sakes, I wish you well.
* Toasty October Keeps U.S. on Track for 2nd-Hottest Year (!)
* Climate Change Doesn't Really Care Who Was Elected (that's a provocative, click-bait title...)
Climate Central - November 2016.

Documenting things that are disappearing from climate change and human activity
Iceland Magazine - November 2016.
American photographer Justin Benttinen : "I am starting work on a project to document things that are disappearing from climate change and human activity," he explains and adds, "The aim is to create books of the photos designed to last a thousand years so that people of the future can know what we were like even if industrial civilization has a setback for 50 or a 100 years and all of our digital files are lost."

Strange Pumping Effect above Asia Threatens the Ozone Layer (!)
Scientific American - October 2016.
A weird phenomenon is happening high above the Tibetan Plateau and the Himalayas that could prove to be an atmospheric nightmare. Pollutants that gather from India and China in the lowlands around the mountains can be boosted as high as 18 kilometers, reaching the stratosphere (...) Once aerosols are that high they can spread globally, destroy the ozone layer that protects us from ultraviolet radiation and exacerbate global warming, researchers warn.
Until a few years ago "we thought human activities had little impact on the stratosphere," says Jean-Paul Vernier, a remote-sensing expert at the NASA Langley Research Center. (...) And most models looking at future climate change scenarios did not account for aerosols in the stratosphere.
Many of us including the authors here, knew of this months ago...from this very article published 2 mths ago.

Its a must read piece on how climate policy will be corrupted.



Trump Picks Top Climate Skeptic to Lead EPA Transition
Choosing Myron Ebell means Trump plans to drastically reshape climate policies
By Robin Bravender, ClimateWire on September 26, 2016


Donald Trump has selected one of the best-known climate skeptics to lead his U.S. EPA transition team, according to two sources close to the campaign.
Myron Ebell, director of the Center for Energy and Environment at the conservative Competitive Enterprise Institute, is spearheading Trump’s transition plans for EPA, the sources said.
The Trump team has also lined up leaders for its Energy Department and Interior Department teams. Republican energy lobbyist Mike McKenna is heading the DOE team; former Interior Department solicitor David Bernhardt is leading the effort for that agency, according to sources close to the campaign.
Ebell is a well-known and polarizing figure in the energy and environment realm. His participation in the EPA transition signals that the Trump team is looking to drastically reshape the climate policies the agency has pursued under the Obama administration. Ebell’s role is likely to infuriate environmentalists and Democrats but buoy critics of Obama’s climate rules.
Ebell, who was dubbed an “elegant nerd” and a “policy wonk” by Vanity Fair, is known for his prolific writings that question what he calls climate change “alarmism.” He appears frequently in the media and before Congress. He’s also chairman of the Cooler Heads Coalition, a group of nonprofits that “question global warming alarmism and oppose energy-rationing policies.”
Ebell appears to relish criticism from the left.
In a biography submitted when he testified before Congress, he listed among his recognitions that he had been featured in a Greenpeace “Field Guide to Climate Criminals,” dubbed a “misleader” on global warming by Rolling Stone and was the subject of a motion to censure in the British House of Commons after Ebell criticized the United Kingdom’s chief scientific adviser for his views on global warming.
More recently, Ebell has called the Obama administration’s Clean Power Plan for greenhouse gases illegal and said that Obama joining the Paris climate treaty “is clearly an unconstitutional usurpation of the Senate’s authority.”
He told Vanity Fair in 2007, “There has been a little bit of warming ... but it’s been very modest and well within the range for natural variability, and whether it’s caused by human beings or not, it’s nothing to worry about.”
Ebell’s views appear to square with Trump’s when it comes to EPA’s agenda. Trump has called global warming “bullshit” and he has said he would “cancel” the Paris global warming accord and roll back President Obama’s executive actions on climate change (ClimateWire, May 27).
Leading the Trump DOE team: GOP hired gun McKenna.
The president of MWR Strategies is well known in Republican energy circles. He was director of policy and external affairs for the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality under then-Gov. George Allen (R) and was an external relations specialist at the Energy Department during the George H.W. Bush administration.
His lobbying clients in 2016 include Koch Companies Public Sector LLC, Southern Company Services, Dow Chemical Co. and Competitive Power Ventures Inc., according to public disclosures.
And heading Interior’s transition effort is Bernhardt, co-chairman of the Natural Resources Department at the law firm Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck.
He served as Interior’s solicitor during the George W. Bush administration after holding several other high-ranking jobs at the department.
In addition to the EPA, Interior and DOE team leaders, GOP energy expert Mike Catanzaro is also working on energy policy for the Trump transition team (Greenwire, Sept. 14).
During the Obama transition in 2008, a relatively small team was assembled ahead of the election in order to map out broad policy goals.
Following the election, the operation expanded dramatically and teams were dispatched to work out of agencies to gather information from political staffers and career officials, write flurries of memos and compile thick binders of intelligence to hand over to the incoming leadership (Greenwire, Aug. 19, 2016).
Should Trump win in November, Ebell, McKenna and Bernhardt will likely be leading similar efforts to reform their respective agencies.
Ebell and McKenna directed questions about their roles to the Trump transition team. The Trump campaign and Bernhardt did not respond to requests for commenstor.
Trump's win upends climate fight We know this, but this is from Politico, and it can be useful to see what the political class reads.
Art can really become reality,....

Spookie, downright spookie stuff.

Powdered Toast Man was my hero.

😱
WMO Press Release - Nov 8.
The global climate 2011-2015: heat records and high impact weather


"(...) This report confirms that the average temperature in 2015 had already reached the 1 C mark. We just had the hottest five-year period on record, with 2015 claiming the title of hottest individual year. Even that record is likely to be beaten in 2016," said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas.

"The effects of climate change have been consistently visible on the global scale since the 1980s: rising global temperature, both over land and in the ocean; sea-level rise; and the widespread melting of ice. It has increased the risks of extreme events such as heatwaves, drought, record rainfall and damaging floods," said Mr Taalas. (...)


Full report by the World Meteorological Organization :
The Global Climate in 2011-2015 (pdf, 5 Mo)


So, What Can I Do?
The Macroscope - September 2016.

A lot of people ask me how they can live more sustainably, and help combat global environmental issues like climate change in their own lives. Here's my advice.
Quoting 36. 999Ai2016:

WMO Press Release - Nov 8.
The global climate 2011-2015: heat records and high impact weather


"(...) This report confirms that the average temperature in 2015 had already reached the 1 C mark. We just had the hottest five-year period on record, with 2015 claiming the title of hottest individual year. Even that record is likely to be beaten in 2016," said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas.

"The effects of climate change have been consistently visible on the global scale since the 1980s: rising global temperature, both over land and in the ocean; sea-level rise; and the widespread melting of ice. It has increased the risks of extreme events such as heatwaves, drought, record rainfall and damaging floods," said Mr Taalas. (...)


Full report by the World Meteorological Organization :
The Global Climate in 2011-2015 (pdf, 5 Mo)


So, What Can I Do?
The Macroscope - September 2016.

A lot of people ask me how they can live more sustainably, and help combat global environmental issues like climate change in their own lives. Here's my advice.


The last link gave some good advice as to what we can do as individuals. As stated in the article, individual changes can make a difference, but would not suffice on their own.
If there are no actions by individuals, there is little hope for actions on a large scale.
Regarding personal action. Take the time to read the science yourself do a study and make your own conclusions. Who is on what side why and how come.

But my study has produced this. Become vegan if or whenever possible. It is the singular most important thing I may do. I personally do the rest, hybrid, super insulation, renewable heat for the most part. But that singularly is the most effective thing I do.

AS to past action to add. Restricting my children to two was probably overall the most important thing.
Now probably I would not have a one. Sad but that is the reality of AGW and to my opinion how radical the solutions to its devolvement are becoming.
Keep waitig for joint or political action and you will be waiting forever. Clearly that is not in the cards.

The people must as history usually attests lead the way. The leaders will eventually follow. We by our example bring the other to our side. Not by words but by our conduct. Veganism for instance back in the early 1990's was a little known of afterthought. Now it is becoming mainstream. Curiously Bill disavowed it about when his wife announced. Curious that. To me it said in a nutshell how important that and its threat to the side that is what they are. A crowd I put Hillary firmly in the midst of. Change but not to much nor to radical, that sort of crowd.

Trump is far worse than Hillary of course. But really the reality is about thirty seconds was all they gave AGW. Which was no accident. The cards dear readers are all slanted against us. Even Hilllary would not have done near enough.

Don't wait for them I firmly attest. We must move, this thing is to near. Do all we can. For me I will be vegan and suggest it to others. But make up your own mind on it. Don't take my study and word as fact. If you cannot do that, absolutely can not. Do the rest. You must.

My neighbors two of them husband and wife. Well meaning good intentioned peoples. Added to the platform of our states politic that we initiate a apollo type program to devolve AGW. And that slightly modified was indeed put in eventually. They drive the biggest pick up truck available and do have need for that thing to manage their properties. And know what, when they dry their clothes here in arid New Mexico they use a clothes drier, because that is just the way things are done.

Point being in this final paragraph, don't believe for a minute personal action could not solve this thing. It certainly could but requires personal change. Always those that say it may not be enough are those saying we are not willing enough for the personal change. I am. Maybe just maybe bunches of us are. Telling us we are not and it is not enough what we may do, is by my read a way to have us not be that.

Why do political prisioners like Ghandi himself was at times, go on hunger strikes?. It is as what we eat and why, is so important to us. We do it three or more times a day it is at times everything to us. Aside from the obvious environmental benefits (which you yourself must arrive at through your own study), what more important statement may we make?
This we will eat and only this. Why? As the world is burning and we will not be its fire. So the politics will go this way or that. We We will remain every day and all day with this thing. Be vegan. If you can and may.

If not do the rest. It will have less impact but it may be all you may. Politics will not get us there. It will help a bit but really in most causes the political reality follows the cause not the other way around. So it must be with this.
Trust me in this. Neither side wants this thing of AGW, right nor left. It is as Gore stated, a very inconvient truth,(is he still vegan?). They must be brought kicking and screaming to its various remedies and solutions. As they also, the solutions, are inconvient and at times painful. But we can quite obviously not with our words bring them to even discuss this thing, nor our vote remedy it, nor our science pull them into logical corners from which they will invariably but cannot escape. We must simply act as if this is as important as it is, always and continually. We must lead these lives we describe. Now

I personally live still as a king. Abeit a king of a slightly lesser kingdom. That by far and large is all that is needed. I as they say can be the change that is needed.
For The Arctic Ocean Above 80 North, It’s Still Summer in November

It’s going to be the hottest year on record — by a long shot. Just ask Gavin Schmidt at a NASA that the climate change denying Trump Administration has now imperiled. But in one region — the Arctic — the rate of heat accumulation has been outrageously extreme. And it is there that this new record warmth could inflict some of the worst damage to an increasingly fragile Earth System.

Link

Trump’s denial of catastrophic climate change is a clear danger



By Katrina vanden Heuvel November 15 at 8:00 AM

Donald Trump’s stunning victory has left millions in dread and moved thousands into the streets. Fear has spread among immigrants and Muslims. The 20 million who have received health insurance under Obamacare worry about Trump’s vow to repeal it. The media speculates about what he might do: Will he really tear up the Iran nuclear deal or order the CIA to start torturing people again? But it is Trump’s denial of catastrophic climate change — he has repeatedly said he considers it a “hoax” — and his vow to reverse all of the progress made under President Obama to address it that pose some of the most chilling and potentially irreversible threats.

Voters heard little about climate change in the endless election campaign. The contrast between the two candidates was night and day, with Hillary Clinton promising to expand on Obama’s climate initiatives and Trump vowing to repeal them. Yet not one question was posed about climate change in the presidential debates. The media gave more airtime to the size of Trump’s hands than to the scope of his climate delusion.

Yet the stakes are huge. Climate change isn’t a distant concern; it is a clear and present danger. Mr. Trump may not believe that, but the generals in the Pentagon have no doubts. A Pentagon report says that climate change is an “urgent and growing threat to our national security.” In January, Pentagon officials were instructed to include climate change in every decision, from readying troops for battle to testing weapons.

As environmentalist Bill McKibben pointed out last week, climate change is already here. The world’s global warming — and the melting of the Arctic ice caps — are now occurring at a much faster rate than scientists previously predicted. Most of the summer sea ice in the Arctic has melted. That’s enough heat, McKibben reports, that record-warm water swept across the Pacific this spring, killing “vast swaths of coral.” That’s enough heat to already cause steady increases in droughts and shocking downpours and floods in wet areas. It has already begun to raise the levels of the ocean. Scientists now suggest that, even with the Paris climate talks, we are on a trajectory to increase the Earth’s temperature 3.5 degrees Celsius or more. If we do that, many cities around the world will be underwater.

Under Obama, the United States played a leading role in getting China — and eventually India — to join the 2015 Paris agreement, with countries pledging carbon reduction commitments needed to keep the world from warming more than 2 degrees Celsius. Many scientists believe that goal is not enough, but meeting even that level will require dramatic and immediate action. One-hundred-and-nine countries responsible for nearly eighty percent of greenhouse-gas emissions have now ratified the agreement, enacting it into international law. The United States represents about 20 percent of the pledged reductions of world greenhouse-gas emissions. Much of this will come from Obama’s Clean Power Plan, designed to enforce Environmental Protection Agency standards on carbon emissions, calling on the states to reduce power plant emissions by 32 percent by 2030.


In the campaign, Trump announced that he would seek to repeal the Clean Power Plan and withdraw from the Paris agreement. He has also pledged to go forward with the Keystone XL and Dakota Access pipelines, to slash investment in climate research and development in renewable energy and efficiency innovation, to open up leasing of oil, gas and coal on federal lands onshore and offshore and to revive coal. He has named Myron Ebell, a notorious climate-change denier and head of a think tank funded in part by the coal industry, to head his EPA and energy transition team. Conservative Republicans who dominate the majority in Congress have railed against Obama’s plans. Oil and coal barons — think the Koch Brothers, among the richest people in the world — wield big money and deep pockets on the Republican right.

There are limits on what Trump can do. The stock price of bankrupt Peabody Energy coal company rose upon Trump’s election, but coal is virtually dead, unable to compete in price with natural gas, production of which Trump plans to expand. More dangerous are reports that he’ll move to loosen regulation of gas pipelines. Methane leaks from pipelines are a far more potent contributor to global warming than even carbon emissions.

Elections do have consequences — often ones not intended by voters. Americans elected George W. Bush, who called for a more modest U.S. role in the world and got the president who drove the disastrous invasion of Iraq. A minority of Americans voted for Trump, largely because they wanted change — but few had any idea of the calamitous consequences that will follow if he carries through his know- nothing stance on climate change.

Trump’s efforts will be and must be resisted. 2014 saw the People’s Climate March — billed as the largest demonstration on climate ever in New York City. Another protest is being planned for Washington next spring. Civil disobedience helped stall the building of the Keystone XL and Dakota Access pipelines, and those protests will surely ramp up. The divestment campaign has removed trillions from oil industry investments and will continue to spread. Other countries will invest in renewable energy and efficiency innovations, winning global markets and jobs that the United States will forfeit. In this country, California and New York and other states will continue to push toward renewable energy and require higher efficiency and mileage stands, forcing manufacturers to respond. Democrats in the Senate and House will fight a long, rearguard action to limit the damage.

But time is not on our side, or on the side of civilization. McKibben noted that the real contest isn’t between Democrats and Republicans or Clinton and Trump, but between “human beings and physics,” and physics “is not prone to compromise.” If we don’t move quickly, very quickly, then any progress will be too late. We can’t afford to drift for four or eight years; we can’t afford to stall what little momentum has been created. Trump may think that it will be easy to reverse Obama’s climate measures. He is about to find out that millions of concerned citizens here and abroad will use every nonviolent means possible to stop him from accelerating the worst crisis humans have ever faced. That isn’t about politics; it is about survival.
Warm Winter Cyclone Damaged Arctic Sea Ice Pack

NASA
Faster than forecast: the story ice tells about abrupt anthropocene climate change with Jason Box

Link
Science and Politics Post-Election: Where Do We Go From Here? Lessons from Carl Sagan

Trump’s rise — and his narrow victory — should make us question the degree to which expertise will continue to matter in politics. We know that it does when it’s time to make policy, but on the politics, its salience is simply low and will probably remain so. Repeated warnings from experts across disciplines and across the political spectrum fell not on deaf ears, but on deeply disengaged and distracted ones. It is tempting to blame others for this problem, including politicians who abandoned their Constitutional principles to support Trump as well as media coverage that too often balanced bigotry, threats of violence, repeated falsehoods, attacks on the democratic process itself and sexual assault with email servers. But such complaints will not change anything, certainly not history. [emphasis in original]

It is therefore up to the scientific and academic community itself to become a more powerful political constituency.
80,000 reindeer have starved to death as Arctic sea ice retreats

“Reindeer are used to sporadic ice cover, and adult males can normally smash through ice around 2 centimetres thick,” says Bruce Forbes at the University of Lapland in Rovaniemi, Finland, who led the study. “But in 2006 and 2013, the ice was several tens of centimetres thick.” …………….
Knock-on effects
In both 2006 and 2013, ice in the Barents and Kara seas near the Yamal peninsula began to retreat in early November, a time when it normally builds up rapidly following the summer thaw. A lack of sea-ice cover led to soaring evaporation and humidity. This, combined with unseasonal warm air temperatures, led to abundant formation of rain clouds.

Prevailing winds blew the clouds over the southernmost tip of the peninsula, where indigenous Yamal Nenet herders were leading huge reindeer herds south. Torrential rain for 24 hours left all snow cover in the region sodden.

But within hours, temperatures plunged to -40 °C for the rest of winter, suddenly turning the waterlogged snow into impenetrable, solid ice for months that prevented feeding.

In 2013, these events led to the starvation of 61,000 of the 275,000 reindeer on the peninsula. “Losing 22 per cent of the population has never happened before,” says Forbes.


Link
Marrakech climate talks: US accepts petition calling for fossil fuel lobbyists to be excluded
The Guardian - Nov 16.

A petition calling for fossil fuel lobbyists to be excluded from the UN climate change negotiations has been forced into the hands of the US delegation in Morocco, where almost 200 nations are meeting to work out ways to implement the 2015 Paris agreement to limit greenhouse gas emissions.
The US delegation initially said it could not formally receive the petition signed by more than 500,000 people but later contacted Corporate Accountability International, agreeing to receive it on Wednesday. (...)


Military Leaders Urge Trump to See Climate as a Security Threat
Scientific American - Nov 15.

Dozens of military and defense experts advised the president-elect that global warming should transcend politics. It may well end up in the paper shredder, but a bipartisan group of defense experts and former military leaders sent Donald Trump's transition team a briefing book urging the president-elect to consider climate change as a grave threat to national security. (...)
The Reindeer story has several items in it beyond the tragic loss of life of these creatures, and the folks who depend on them. It confirms on a grand scale, one of the many facets the hypothesis predicted.
That periods of rain would fall, or ice would fall, in the cold parts of the year in the very far North. Another thing that is telling is that this study is on the Yamal peninsula. Where blow out craters have been seen.
And lastly, this fall we have seen the reports of 5 months of snow in the first month of winter in Siberia. Here’s hoping another of those 24 hour rain events doesn’t fall on this snow pack there, one does not shovel ice to get to the out house.
Are Trees Sentient Beings? Certainly, Says German Forester
Yale Environment 360 - Nov 16.

In his bestselling book, The Hidden Life of Trees, Peter Wohlleben argues that to save the world's forests we must first recognize that trees are "wonderful beings" with innate adaptability, intelligence, and the capacity to communicate with - and heal - other trees.

Hundreds of U.S. Businesses Call For Continued International Climate Action
Yale Environment 360 - Nov 16.

More than 360 U.S.-based businesses, including some of the world's largest multinational corporations, sent a letter to U.S. and world leaders this week asking them to continue to support the Paris climate agreement and speed up the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy. (...)
From the we're so screwed file -


‘Largest’ Shale Oil Reserve Discovered in US

Oil explorers in the U.S. state of Texas say they’ve discovered the largest deposit of shale oil in a region known as the Permian Basin.

The so-called Wolfcamp formation, explorers believe, could hold up to 20 billion barrels of oil, worth up to $900 billion. The find could be three times bigger than the state of North Dakota’s Bakken rock formation, the largest find of unconventional oil ever discovered.

“The fact that this is the largest assessment of continuous oil we have ever done just goes to show that, even in areas that have produced billions of barrels of oil, there is still the potential to find billions more,” said Walter Guidroz, coordinator for the U.S. Geological Survey’s energy resources program, in a statement.


Link
In the past, I have looked up these oil shale deposits ages, they are very very, old. 250 to 300 million years. We are now burning well over 250 million years of stored sunlight, every day, just to visit Aruba in the winter, or to haul the kids to Disney World.
From Pole to Pole, Global Sea Ice Values are Plummeting

In total, global sea ice coverage is now about 3,865,000 square kilometers below average.

If you think that number sounds really big, it’s because it is. It represents a region of lost ice nearly 40 percent the size of the land and water area of the entire United States including Alaska and Hawaii. To visualize it another way, imagine all of the land area of Alaska, California, Texas, Montana, Arizona and New Mexico combined and you begin to get the gist.


Link
This is a reef setting on top of the Wolfcamp shale formation in West Texas -

One more shot -
55 and 56, ...... This where they haul all the oil babies (petroleum engineering students) in Texas to, so they can understand the power of tiny little creatures fixing sunlight everyday for tens of millions of years.
For decades, when I think of this subject of modern American energy, I have tried to see those ancient seas , with their tiny creatures taking in long gone photons in their bodies with weeks long life spans. Then dying and drifting to the floor of some sea that only a thousand people ever heard of. And by the most magic thing we have ever seen , taking that sunlight to seafloor with them, and covered by mud. And not by tens of years, as is our view, but tens of millions of years.

Here's the best thought experiment about this I ever saw -

Put one gallon of gas in your car, drive it till it stops. Now push it back home. That is work, of all those tiny creatures over tens of millions of years collecting all those photons.

When one rolls that marble around one's head.
Quoting 58. RobertWC:

For decades, when I think of this subject of modern American energy, I have tried to see those ancient seas , with their tiny creatures taking in long gone photons in their bodies with weeks long life spans. Then dying and drifting to the floor of some sea that only a thousand people ever heard of. And by the most magic thing we have ever seen , taking that sunlight to seafloor with them, and covered by mud. And not by tens of years, as is our view, but tens of millions of years.

Here's the best thought experiment about this I ever saw -

Put one gallon of gas in your car, drive it till it stops. Now push it back home. That is work, of all those tiny creatures over tens of millions of years collecting all those photons.

When one rolls that marble around one's head.


One does not see this -

This chart says it all.

Quoting 44. bappit:
Science and Politics Post-Election: Where Do We Go From Here? Lessons from Carl Sagan

Trump’s rise — and his narrow victory — should make us question the degree to which expertise will continue to matter in politics. We know that it does when it’s time to make policy, but on the politics, its salience is simply low and will probably remain so. Repeated warnings from experts across disciplines and across the political spectrum fell not on deaf ears, but on deeply disengaged and distracted ones. It is tempting to blame others for this problem, including politicians who abandoned their Constitutional principles to support Trump as well as media coverage that too often balanced bigotry, threats of violence, repeated falsehoods, attacks on the democratic process itself and sexual assault with email servers. But such complaints will not change anything, certainly not history. [emphasis in original]

It is therefore up to the scientific and academic community itself to become a more powerful political constituency.
To be "a more powerful political constituency" requires people to act. Expecting to win the day merely because you are correct, because you can cite all the facts, is foolish.
Telling the obvious :

The risky promise of "negative emissions":
Why we should not assume that land-based measures will save the climate
(.pdf file)

Stocholm Environment Institute - 2016 (policy brief).

Increasingly, models used to study possible mitigation pathways assume that negative emission options will be available at a large scale. Not surprisingly, they find that relying on negative emission options in the comfortably distant future reduces near-term mitigation costs. In the real world, however, this "easier and less expensive" strategy poses fundamental risks, as a growing number of climate scientists have noted. (...)

Even if negative emission options prove to be technically feasible, society may find the ecological and social costs to be unacceptably high, with potentially major adverse impacts on biodiversity, food security, water resources, and human rights. (...)

A review of modelled mitigation pathways suggests that the goal of limiting warming to 2 C or 1.5 C can still be achieved without excessive reliance on negative emissions. This would require immediate global mitigation on a scale that greatly exceeds that which was pledged by nations under the Paris Agreement, as well as protecting land carbon stocks by reversing forest loss and allowing degraded forests to recover. (...)
Mystery as dead "polar bears" wash up on tiny Scottish island 1400 miles from Arctic
The Mirror - Nov 15.
(...) The nearest habitat of the creatures is in the Arctic, 1400 miles from the island. But in recent years, the creatures have been recorded drifting from their natural habitat on ice floes as global warming takes its toll. (...) Colin said: "They are three metres long and you can also make out a head and eye socket now.
"I can't see what else it could be. There's no other sea creature that has that fur."
His conclusion was shared on Saturday via the Friends of Colonsay Facebook page.
The site admin wrote: "We must assume that a small family was marooned upon an ice floe which melted, causing them to drown."
From Climate Crocks:

Did Fake News put Trump in the White House?

November 17, 2016



[...]

Washington Post:

Paul Horner, the 38-year-old impresario of a Facebook fake-news empire, has made his living off viral news hoaxes for several years. He has twice convinced the Internet that he's British graffiti artist Banksy; he also published the very viral, very fake news of a Yelp vs. "South Park" lawsuit last year.

But in recent months, Horner has found the fake-news ecosystem growing more crowded, more political and vastly more influential: In March, Donald Trump's son Eric and his then-campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, even tweeted links to one of Horner's faux-articles. His stories have also appeared as news on Google.



In light of concerns that stories like Horner's may have affected the presidential election, and in the wake of announcements that both Google and Facebook would take action against deceptive outlets, Intersect called Horner to discuss his perspective on fake news. This transcript has been edited for clarity, length and - ahem - bad language.

You've been writing fake news for a while now - you're kind of like the OG Facebook news hoaxer. Well, I'd call it hoaxing or fake news. You'd call it parody or satire. How is that scene different now than it was three or five years ago? Why did something like your story about Obama invalidating the election results (almost 250,000 Facebook shares, as of this writing) go so viral?

Honestly, people are definitely dumber. They just keep passing stuff around. Nobody fact-checks anything anymore - I mean, that's how Trump got elected. He just said whatever he wanted, and people believed everything, and when the things he said turned out not to be true, people didn't care because they'd already accepted it. It's real scary. I've never seen anything like it.

You mentioned Trump, and you've probably heard the argument, or the concern, that fake news somehow helped him get elected. What do you make of that?

My sites were picked up by Trump supporters all the time. I think Trump is in the White House because of me. His followers don't fact-check anything - they'll post everything, believe anything. His campaign manager posted my story about a protester getting paid $3,500 as fact. Like, I made that up. I posted a fake ad on Craigslist.

[...]

Read the rest of the transcript and the complete article here

Quoting 64. Xandra: - Stuff about mainstream news snipped -

I'm not impressed with mainstream news either. Seems they compete more for attention, not more enlightenment.
This just in, breaking on the wire,.....


Pretzel's now determined to be the cause of Global warming...


This just released from President Trumps chief counsel, Bannon..


Quoting 67. BaltimoreBrian:

A lot of nonvoters are mad at the election results. If only there were something they could have done! ;)

Global warming: The state of the climate in 2016 from The Economist.


Brian the link for the first article does not work
Thanks for fixing it.
Sorry about that SunnyDaysFla, it's fixed now. Thanks for letting me know :)
Energy and Environment
The North Pole is an insane 36 degrees warmer than normal as winter descends

Faster and faster as Keeper would say... so frightening watching the stupidity for profit steal any chance our descendants have for a healthy future.
Regarding the not voting thing, I thought I may mention. I just had a visit from a relative in North Carolina who stated the early voting hours and accesibility were just off the charts, And absentee voting was a bit hard as well. Youi work two jobs like many do,both parents in a family working to boot, and you can not for one endure long hours standing in line to vote. Sure its important but day care for your kids may just not be available.

IN New Mexico for instance we have the most accomodative of early voting, absentee voting, and usually even on election day with a few exceptions, no lines. The result 12 years of a left leaning presidential voter and left leaning senate and congress representatives(by majority there is one right wing person in congress). Before all that NM was usually right or middle.

From Dr. Rood's blog:
Science-based knowledge and knowledge in general has become conflated with political and cultural groups of people.
That was inevitable. First, the impacts of CO2 pollution are necessarily political issues because they are so profound and affect so many people. Second, it is our scientific knowledge of CO2 pollution impacts that has pushed these issues into the public space of politics. Science has inexorably become intertwined with politics.

I think it is a mistake to use the word conflated. That word has misleading connotations.--Who did the conflating? No one. It just inevitably happened.--I think "intertwined" is better. Still, one understandably wants to look askance at the resulting situation: the resulting political competition is asymmetrical. If one side originates in established science, their detractors do not have science as a political resource. They at best have only fake science. The question then becomes: are they willing to use fake science, and if so, why?

Barack Obama describes the scene in Obama Reckons with a Trump Presidency, a New Yorker article by David Remnick who traveled with Obama around the time of the election.
"An explanation of climate change from a Nobel Prize-winning physicist looks exactly the same on your Facebook page as the denial of climate change by somebody on the Koch brothers' payroll. And the capacity to disseminate misinformation, wild conspiracy theories, to paint the opposition in wildly negative light without any rebuttal--that has accelerated in ways that much more sharply polarize the electorate and make it very difficult to have a common conversation."
Again Obama:
"Trump understands the new ecosystem, in which facts and truth don't matter. You attract attention, rouse emotions, and then move on."
And again:
"We've seen this coming," he said. "Donald Trump is not an outlier; he is a culmination, a logical conclusion of the rhetoric and tactics of the Republican Party for the past ten, fifteen, twenty years. What surprised me was the degree to which those tactics and rhetoric completely jumped the rails. There were no governing principles, there was no one to say, 'No, this is going too far, this isn't what we stand for.' But we've seen it for eight years, even with reasonable people like John Boehner, who, when push came to shove, wouldn't push back against these currents."

[David Remnick, the article's author] asked about Trump's capacity to eliminate serially a long string of Republican contenders. "Donald Trump beating fifteen people said less about his skills and more about the lack of skills of the people he beat," Obama said. "But, obviously, he tapped into something. He's able to distill the anger and resentment and the sense of aggrievement. And he is skillful at challenging the conventions in a way that makes people feel something and that gives them some satisfaction."
I would add to Obama's list of factors: an immature sense of entitlement.

People use fake science because they are afflicted with an immature sense of entitlement. They are like spoiled children who think they can demand whatever they want. It is they who have conflated fake science with the political discourse.

The proper course of action is to attack this immature sense of entitlement, to demonstrate its existence and show the consequences it has had.

The goal is to return to what we used to have. Obama yet again:
Ideally, in a democracy, everybody would agree that climate change is the consequence of man-made behavior, because that's what ninety-nine per cent of scientists tell us," he said. "And then we would have a debate about how to fix it. That's how, in the seventies, eighties, and nineties, you had Republicans supporting the Clean Air Act and you had a market-based fix for acid rain rather than a command-and-control approach. So you'd argue about means, but there was a baseline of facts that we could all work off of. And now we just don't have that."
I would add that I do not think that the immature sense of entitlement is restricted to Republicans or working class people. For instance, it afflicts anyone who does not take seriously the call by Kevin Anderson and others TO STOP FLYING (or at least curtail it).
Regarding post 72 Bappit
"People use fake science because they are afflicted with an immature sense of entitlement. They are like spoiled children who think they can demand whatever they want."

Bappit I am not trying to troll you or slam your point of view but simply to disagree and voice it.
These peoples are suffering from lack of wealth and security in their future and know in their heart of hearts most of what they hear are lies. So they grasp at whoever throws them a straw they may cling to.
I heard a worker at Walmart just the other day lauding the end of welfare under the new president. The food stamps his family undoubtably uses and health care he has due to the low income provision of medicade are in his mind not welfare. And social security is not in his mind also socialism. And his medicare if he reaches that age is not socialism as well. He hates all socialism you know. It is communistic.

Entitled, no it is just he does not know things for what they are. Exceptionalism. Obama adheres to that notion. Are we really? CAn one be one and not the other? Is one pot calling the other than black.

Fake then. How can they know what is real and what is fake when they lack the skills of logic and cognitive ability which enables us to make such determinations?
That to my opinion is the crux of the issue. They lack the means to seperate the wheat from the chaf. It is impossible for them. Without the rudder of logic and discernment who to follow or trust but one who tells you perhaps what you wish you may be but cannot be, but wish so you may make it so?

I, if I was that, would not consider myself entitled nor exceptional but vote and act by those who treat me(which means in the politic tells me what I like to hear) as best they may. What other tool would I have?
So then it becomes who can best tell a tale. Which part right or wrong in that story we have no ability to determine. Who best tells the tale becomes the issue.
Could someone please message me and please explain how to post articles on this blog?
Quoting 74. ronnm:
These peoples are suffering from lack of wealth and security in their future and know in their heart of hearts most of what they hear are lies. So they grasp at whoever throws them a straw they may cling to.
What I take away from Obama observations is that the lies have been going on for decades now (Obama suggests 20 years) and are becoming more frequent and more pervasive. What started (perhaps) with the Merchants of Doubt promoting tobacco back in the 70's has become generalized. It is not a phenomenon limited to climate change or industry special interests. It has become an accepted strategy in the U.S. for obtaining and maintaining political power. (Boehner did not disavow it.)

It is obviously based in a sense of entitlement. This technique or strategy of making bald faced lies is available for use, and they are comfortable in using it even though it is highly unethical and, frankly, immoral (certainly with tobacco). They seem to have no shame in employing it. They must have a sense of entitlement that supersedes ethical concerns.

I suppose one could call it a cynical sense of entitlement, but the tribal element of it (I agree with Rood's use of that word) or the group-think that it involves is a sign of what in ordinary circumstances would be viewed as an immature mode of behavior. Instead of using their own faculties for ethical decision making, they ignore any consideration of responsible behavior (what Obama refers to as going "beyond the pale") and merely follow the crowd. Where it has become a question of ideological purity (RINO's), I would say it is surpassing immaturity and morphing into hysteria.

I suppose that if someone thinks that their personal actions will have no effect and thus are comfortable in not acting then they approach things with a cynical sense of entitlement, too, such as, "Well, I might as well do what I've been doing." If they dig in their heels when someone points out their cynicism, then they may be adopting an immature attitude.
ABC 2010: First They Came for the Climate Scientists

November 21, 2016



Fake News and the “Alt Right” is nothing new to Climate Scientists.
See this 2010 item from ABC News – the same folks celebrating the elevation of Donald Trump and Richard Bannon to the White House have been threatening scientists for most of a decade.

Right-wing group led by Trump propagandist launches campaign against Elon Musk, Tesla and SpaceX | Electrek
.... they say they are against “Big Energy” in their manifesto, but in the section about ‘Big Energy’ they only attack the solar industry because they receive tax breaks. Does the solar industry really represent “Big Energy”? If your goal is really to attack energy subsidies, solar and renewable energy subsidies should be your last target considering their share of federal subsidies:

To make their point about Musk and his companies specifically, the group has been using statements that have long been debunked. ....

.... led by Ingraham, who is now being considered by Donald Trump as the next White House Press Secretary....
I've been reading fake news for years, think WUWT.
That's the template.
It's TMZ news, that's our problem. That's the Big Media format An endless stream rich bozos coming out resturants, clubs, workouts, and courts.

3 dead polar bears wash up on a beach in Scotland . And what that means. Get run over like a cross town bus.

Just watch "Good Morning America" , a Disney product, 2 mins of news And it's off the latest breakdown of some rich jackass. Then we get "deep" reporting.

It's not fake news, it's "pop corn news", empty crap about people who will never stand in line with you at the supermarket. It's about jiggling the keys it front of the baby. It's bread and circuses. except the circus in first now.

Kayne West is in the metal ward in LA. Hundreds of hours will be given to him. The drought in Bolivia .......... zip.
I've been reading fake news for years, think WUWT.
That's the template.
It's TMZ news, that's our problem. That's the Big Media format An endless stream rich bozos coming out resturants, clubs, workouts, and courts.

3 dead polar bears wash up on a beach in Scotland . And what that means. Get run over like a cross town bus.

Just watch "Good Morning America" , a Disney product, 2 mins of news And it's off the latest breakdown of some rich jackass. Then we get "deep" reporting.

It's not fake news, it's "pop corn news", empty crap about people who will never stand in line with you at the supermarket. It's about jiggling the keys it front of the baby. It's bread and circuses. except the circus in first now.

Kayne West is in the metal ward in LA. Hundreds of hours will be given to him. The drought in Bolivia .......... zip.



Kong's a pretty good king. Keeps to himself, mostly, but you don't go into someone's house and start dropping bombs unless you're picking a fight
Quoting 79. Xandra:
[...]
Fake News and the "Alt Right" is nothing new to Climate Scientists…


While I discussed fake news as it relates to Facebook in my WU blog, here's an interesting story about where some of it comes from:

We Tracked Down A Fake-News Creator In The Suburbs. Here's What We Learned

Laura Sydell | NPR: All Things Considered | November 23, 2016

A lot of fake and misleading news stories were shared across social media during the election. One that got a lot of traffic had this headline: "FBI Agent Suspected In Hillary Email Leaks Found Dead In Apparent Murder-Suicide." The story is completely false, but it was shared on Facebook over half a million times.

We wondered who was behind that story and why it was written. It appeared on a site that had the look and feel of a local newspaper. Denverguardian.com even had the local weather. But it had only one news story — the fake one.

[…]

"That was sort of the thread that started to unravel everything… I was able to track that through to a bunch of other sites…"

The sites include NationalReport.net, USAToday.com.co, WashingtonPost.com.co. All the addresses linked to a single rented server inside Amazon Web Services. That meant they were all very likely owned by the same company. Jansen found an email address on one of those sites and was able to link that address to a name: Jestin Coler.

[…]

"The whole idea from the start was to build a site that could kind of infiltrate the echo chambers of the alt-right, publish blatantly or fictional stories and then be able to publicly denounce those stories and point out the fact that they were fiction," Coler says.

He was amazed at how quickly fake news could spread and how easily people believe it. He wrote one fake story for NationalReport.net about how customers in Colorado marijuana shops were using food stamps to buy pot.

"What that turned into was a state representative in the House in Colorado proposing actual legislation to prevent people from using their food stamps to buy marijuana based on something that had just never happened," Coler says.

[…]

Coler says his writers have tried to write fake news for liberals — but they just never take the bait.

Coler's company, Disinfomedia, owns many faux news sites — he won't say how many. But he says his is one of the biggest fake-news businesses out there, which makes him a sort of godfather of the industry…
This long post is not directly AGW/CC related, but the policies of the incoming U.S. government in Washington, D.C. will affect the the funding and support of climate science severely.

I believe, like many other informed people, that there is a strong likelihood that Trump's ratings will drop steadily as he fails to deliver on campaign promises. Wasn't his vote tally less than 1/4 of the "eligible" U.S. voters actually voted for him? And of course, he lost the popular vote by over 2 million.

The American right wing - a corporate funded and run sector - has used hundreds of millions of dollars to fund the finest persuasive propaganda and media techniques money can buy. With the new and very persuasive powers of the internet, they pushed propaganda like the highly successful "Put Hillary the liar in Jail" meme. This Hillary and jail meme is a "huge" obsession with Trump fans, and he will lose support as he abandons this and other campaign promises. Also, Trump is not "draining the Washington DC swamp of insiders and lobbyists" as he promised to do, but rather he expanding the boundaries of that swamp and increasing it's influence.

Trump cannot "bring the jobs back" because many of them don't exist. He believes in stiffing workers and not honoring contracts, tries to cheat the unions at his hotels, and is not likely to support increasing the minimum wage requirements. He buys foreign goods instead of buying U.S. made products. Based on such facts, it is illogical - even insane - for people to believe that he would bring good-paying manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. He can't - and he won't do these things - but how will his supporters react when he tries to pass the blame for his failures?

More and more semi-skilled and skilled manufacturing and repetitive jobs continue to disappear due to replacement by robotics and automation. There are many people in the U.S. and elsewhere with less than average IQ - after all, and IQ of 100 is "average" and about one-third of the population is between 85 and 115 IQ. (Like population issues, this topic is uncomfortable for many people to discuss.) Many modern technology jobs require higher intelligence and sitting in a cubicle. But even high-tech jobs are not immune to pay degradation. I went from $55/hour as senior desktop support tech for Windows, and senior Novell network administrator in 2000 - to leaving the field when I couldn't get a job above $12/hr in 2001. (And of course, being 60 y/o and slower and les efficient than the young hot-shot techies didn't help.)

People of "less than average" intelligence could in the past work at well-paying union and non-union manufacturing jobs, buy nice cars and houses, and live as friends and neighbors of many of the "more intelligent" segments of human societies. In the futurist and utopian novels and books I read in my youth, the "workers" - who did the hard, dangerous and often boring manufacturing jobs - would be replaced by robots and automation - and that is exactly what is happening. The fatal flaw in the reasoning of those futurist writings was that they expected the working class to be freed to pursue art, poetry and other intellectual and cultural pursuits - which requires that the "system" (governments?) would have to provide incomes to the displaced workers, because the wealth would be created by the machines, not the labor of humans.

We all know how that turned out - rather than supporting the displaced workers, the wealth flowed - and continues to flow - into the bank accounts of the uber wealthy - the real "elites." And while their accumulation of wealth continues to grow, they have managed to deflect the logic and reason about blue-collar job losses towards blaming "trade agreements" and ethnic and racial hatred. The very people who have been duped and robbed of their livelihoods believe that they can and will be rich and successful themselves - if only they work with the Tea Party folks and elect and support the very people who took their jobs away - the corporate interests. This is freaking insane - and I don't know what can be done about it - especially since the concept of politicians and judges as public servants rather than corporate toadies has been pretty much lost. Do those rare remaining dedicated public servants like Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, and some of the new incoming Democratic women senators stand a chance of holding back the tide? If their job performance is strong as they oppose the policies and practices of Trump and his incoming administration, will they inspire voters to send them "reinforcements" two years from now in the next election cycle?

I could go on with the details, probably for many, many pages, but I will stop and summarize thusly:

In the past few decades, there have been fundamental changes in the financial, manufacturing, and communication sectors of modern western society. These changes have caused permanent job losses for large numbers of people and the reduction or elimination of reasonable income for this segment. Those people cannot - or will not - face reality and recognize the true causes of manufacturing job losses and the redistribution of wealth to the already wealthy. Plus, human psychology hinders the ability of many to recognize the present and future threats of environmental degradation and AGW/CC.

There have also been incredible advances in science and engineering - including earth sciences such as meteorology and climate science.

With narcissism and greed dominating politics more and more, sacrifice and a reduction in energy and resource use to mitigate AGW/CC and environmental degradation are not popular ideas. Right-wing and nationalist liars are ascending to positions of power in many democracies around the world, leaving those who rely on reason, science, and logic to chart a course into the future with a very difficult task. The legend of Sisyphus has taken on new meaning as I watch the Trump and other nationalists and greedy monsters replace leaders who at least tried to make even a small bit of progress towards dealing with the problems that we humans face. Even if the U.S. turns the politics around a bit in two and four years, the boulders of positive progress are right now rolling back down the hill. (I especially like the "weight" given to the Climate Change boulder)



[Cross-posted at the Arctic Sea Ice Blog]
People are tweeting #ThanksNASA after a Trump adviser suggested he'd axe its earth science research arm

Scientists have taken to Twitter to talk about all the important work NASA's earth science program does, using the hashtag #ThanksNASA.

Link
Climate Change Has Left Bolivia Crippled by Drought
“Bolivians have to be prepared for the worst.” — President Evo Morales.


*****

Like many countries, Bolivia relies on its glaciers and large lakes to supply water during the lean, dry times. But as Bolivia has heated with the rest of the world, those key stores of frozen and liquid water have dwindled and dried up. Warming has turned the country’s second largest lake into a parched bed of hardening soil. This heat has made the country’s largest lake a shadow of its former expanse and depth. It has forced Bolivia’s glaciers into a full retreat up the tips of its northern mountains — reducing the key Chacaltaya glacier to naught. Multiple reservoirs are now bone-dry. And, for hundreds of thousands of people,

Link
91. Xulonn
5:27 PM GMT on November 25, 2016


You, are one of the many reasons I read this site, and this post was one of your better efforts. It does seem that the "Monsters Behind the Door", have broken into the room. And the despair with those of us who follow this topic is soul crushing. I see in comments across the web.

It's a bit like standing on the beach at after the Battle of Dunkirk, and knowing the "Little Ships" din't save you.
But, like that time, there forces lose in the world that may stop Mr. Trump and all he stands for. At least that is what I tell myself. In the mean time, as read for post , I was playing "Hell in a Bucket", in my head.

One of the great parts of my youth was watching Walter Cronkite's , "You are There" on Sundays . This was long before Sundays were gobbled-up by football, and NASCAR. And to my young mind, the highlight of those very dull afternoons, Walter taking me back in time as modern reporter, and reporting on great events from the past. Then the "Twenty Century' came on, again with Walter, and than great theme song. We could do anything, go back time and interview Napoleon
, or fly to the Moon.

As I think about our fate, I glad I'm not in a cave in Northern Spain 40,000 years ago , I'm glad I wasn't watching the first plague ship sail into the harbor at Genoa, I'm glad I wasn't a Soviet soldier at Stalingrad. Humans have always believed, that their time is the most important. But our time, just might be that time.


Now back to the body count, of Bolivians , and puffins.
Quoting 91. Xulonn:

This long post is not directly AGW/CC related, but the policies of the incoming U.S. government in Washington, D.C. will affect the the funding and support of climate science severely.

I believe, like many other informed people, that there is a strong likelihood that Trump's ratings will drop steadily as he fails to deliver on campaign promises. Wasn't his vote tally less than 1/4 of the "eligible" U.S. voters actually voted for him? And of course, he lost the popular vote by over 2 million.

The American right wing - a corporate funded and run sector - has used hundreds of millions of dollars to fund the finest persuasive propaganda and media techniques money can buy. With the new and very persuasive powers of the internet, they pushed propaganda like the highly successful "Put Hillary the liar in Jail" meme. This Hillary and jail meme is a "huge" obsession with Trump fans, and he will lose support as he abandons this and other campaign promises. Also, Trump is not "draining the Washington DC swamp of insiders and lobbyists" as he promised to do, but rather he expanding the boundaries of that swamp and increasing it's influence.

Trump cannot "bring the jobs back" because many of them don't exist. He believes in stiffing workers and not honoring contracts, tries to cheat the unions at his hotels, and is not likely to support increasing the minimum wage requirements. He buys foreign goods instead of buying U.S. made products. Based on such facts, it is illogical - even insane - for people to believe that he would bring good-paying manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. He can't - and he won't do these things - but how will his supporters react when he tries to pass the blame for his failures?

More and more semi-skilled and skilled manufacturing and repetitive jobs continue to disappear due to replacement by robotics and automation. There are many people in the U.S. and elsewhere with less than average IQ - after all, and IQ of 100 is "average" and about one-third of the population is between 85 and 115 IQ. (Like population issues, this topic is uncomfortable for many people to discuss.) Many modern technology jobs require higher intelligence and sitting in a cubicle. But even high-tech jobs are not immune to pay degradation. I went from $55/hour as senior desktop support tech for Windows, and senior Novell network administrator in 2000 - to leaving the field when I couldn't get a job above $12/hr in 2001. (And of course, being 60 y/o and slower and les efficient than the young hot-shot techies didn't help.)

People of "less than average" intelligence could in the past work at well-paying union and non-union manufacturing jobs, buy nice cars and houses, and live as friends and neighbors of many of the "more intelligent" segments of human societies. In the futurist and utopian novels and books I read in my youth, the "workers" - who did the hard, dangerous and often boring manufacturing jobs - would be replaced by robots and automation - and that is exactly what is happening. The fatal flaw in the reasoning of those futurist writings was that they expected the working class to be freed to pursue art, poetry and other intellectual and cultural pursuits - which requires that the "system" (governments?) would have to provide incomes to the displaced workers, because the wealth would be created by the machines, not the labor of humans.

We all know how that turned out - rather than supporting the displaced workers, the wealth flowed - and continues to flow - into the bank accounts of the uber wealthy - the real "elites." And while their accumulation of wealth continues to grow, they have managed to deflect the logic and reason about blue-collar job losses towards blaming "trade agreements" and ethnic and racial hatred. The very people who have been duped and robbed of their livelihoods believe that they can and will be rich and successful themselves - if only they work with the Tea Party folks and elect and support the very people who took their jobs away - the corporate interests. This is freaking insane - and I don't know what can be done about it - especially since the concept of politicians and judges as public servants rather than corporate toadies has been pretty much lost. Do those rare remaining dedicated public servants like Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, and some of the new incoming Democratic women senators stand a chance of holding back the tide? If their job performance is strong as they oppose the policies and practices of Trump and his incoming administration, will they inspire voters to send them "reinforcements" two years from now in the next election cycle?

I could go on with the details, probably for many, many pages, but I will stop and summarize thusly:

In the past few decades, there have been fundamental changes in the financial, manufacturing, and communication sectors of modern western society. These changes have caused permanent job losses for large numbers of people and the reduction or elimination of reasonable income for this segment. Those people cannot - or will not - face reality and recognize the true causes of manufacturing job losses and the redistribution of wealth to the already wealthy. Plus, human psychology hinders the ability of many to recognize the present and future threats of environmental degradation and AGW/CC.

There have also been incredible advances in science and engineering - including earth sciences such as meteorology and climate science.

With narcissism and greed dominating politics more and more, sacrifice and a reduction in energy and resource use to mitigate AGW/CC and environmental degradation are not popular ideas. Right-wing and nationalist liars are ascending to positions of power in many democracies around the world, leaving those who rely on reason, science, and logic to chart a course into the future with a very difficult task. The legend of Sisyphus has taken on new meaning as I watch the Trump and other nationalists and greedy monsters replace leaders who at least tried to make even a small bit of progress towards dealing with the problems that we humans face. Even if the U.S. turns the politics around a bit in two and four years, the boulders of positive progress are right now rolling back down the hill. (I especially like the "weight" given to the Climate Change boulder)



[Cross-posted at the Arctic Sea Ice Blog]


Hmm, I wonder if you are one of those people of " less than average intelligence?" There is so much wrong with this but you don't t even understand the strategy that Trump used to win the election- not the popular vote that you so foolishly reference. Using the "he won the popular vote" shows "less than average" intelligence so everything after that is not believable.
In spite of the election of AGW/CC denier/hoaxist Donald Trump as President of the U.S., I believe that there is still hope for continuing to convert conservatives and evangelicals into accepting the science-backed reality of AGW/CC.

I am philosophically a deist with no formal religious beliefs - and not an evangelical Christian, but I recognize that this segment of U.S. society is a significant one. In addition to the ongoing efforts of evangelical Christian and conservative Dr. Katharine Hayhoe, an earth sciences professor at Texas Tech University, I've just discovered a new (to me) "Yankee" or "northerner" evangelical Christian Republican meteorologist from Minnesota who is firmly on the side of logic and reason.
Quoting the Washington Post:
Republican meteorologist and serial entrepreneur Paul Douglas writes a daily weather and climate column at Star Tribune. He is founder of AerisWeather and co-author of the book "Caring for Creation: The Evangelical's Guide to Climate Change and a Healthy Environment."
Here is a LINK to a column written by Paul Douglas, and published by the Washington Post on November 18 by their "Capital Weather Gang.

It looks like the tide is turning with respect to TV meteorologists, as more and more of them they are beginning to accept the science of AGW/CC and report on it and discuss it on their weather shows. Although I haven't watched cable or network TV for about 25 years, I know they have a huge audience of average citizens in the U.S.


So I am in a discussion with another individual that I frequently blog with and he throws the follow at me...

"CO2 emissions make absolutely no difference one way or another….Every scientist knows this, but it doesn't pay to say so…Global warming, as a political vehicle, keeps Europeans in the driver's seat and developing nations walking barefoot." - Dr. Takeda Kunihiko, vice-chancellor of the Institute of Science and Technology Research at Chubu University in Japan.

"The [global warming] scaremongering has its justification in the fact that it is something that generates funds." - Award-winning Paleontologist Dr. Eduardo Tonni, of the Committee for Scientific Research in Buenos Aires and head of the Paleontology Department at the University of La Plata.

"Whatever the weather, it's not being caused by global warming. If anything, the climate may be starting into a cooling period." Atmospheric scientist Dr. Art V. Douglas, former Chair of the Atmospheric Sciences Department at Creighton University in Omaha, Nebraska, and is the author of numerous papers for peer-reviewed publications.

"Global warming has become a new religion." - Nobel Prize Winner for Physics, Ivar Giaever.

"Many [scientists] are now searching for a way to back out quietly (from promoting warming fears), without having their professional careers ruined." -- Atmospheric physicist James A. Peden, formerly of the Space Research and Coordination Center in Pittsburgh, Pa.

"Creating an ideology pegged to carbon dioxide is a dangerous nonsense ... . The present alarm on climate change is an instrument of social control, a pretext for major businesses and political battle. It became an ideology, which is concerning." -- Environmental Scientist Professor Delgado Domingos of Portugal, the founder of the Numerical Weather Forecast group, has more than 150 published articles.

"Warming fears are the worst scientific scandal in history…When people come to know what the truth is, they will feel deceived by science and scientists." - UN IPCC Japanese Scientist Dr. Kiminori Itoh, an award-winning PhD environmental physical chemist

"Since I am no longer affiliated with any organization nor receiving any funding, I can speak quite frankly. The main basis of the claim that man's release of greenhouse gases is the cause of the warming is based almost entirely upon climate models. We all know the frailty of models concerning the air-surface system" - Atmospheric Scientist Dr. Joanne Simpson, the first woman in the world to receive a PhD in meteorology, and formerly of NASA, who has authored more than 190 studies and has been called "among the most preeminent scientists of the last 100 years."

"The IPCC has actually become a closed circuit; it doesn't listen to others. It doesn't have open minds… I am really amazed that the Nobel Peace Prize has been given on scientifically incorrect conclusions by people who are not geologists," - Indian geologist Dr. Arun D. Ahluwalia at Punjab University and a board member of the UN-supported International Year of the Planet

"Real measurements give no ground for concern about a catastrophic future warming." - Scientist Dr. Jarl R. Ahlbeck, a chemical engineer at Abo Akademi University in Finland, author of 200 scientific publications and former Greenpeace member.

"Anyone who claims that the debate is over and the conclusions are firm has a fundamentally unscientific approach to one of the most momentous issues of our time." - Solar physicist Dr. Pal Brekke, senior advisor to the Norwegian Space Centre in Oslo. Brekke has published more than 40 peer-reviewed scientific articles on the sun and solar interaction with the Earth.

"It is a blatant lie put forth in the media that makes it seem there is only a fringe of scientists who don't buy into anthropogenic global warming." - U.S Government Atmospheric Scientist Stanley B. Goldenberg of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA.

"Even doubling or tripling the amount of carbon dioxide will virtually have little impact, as water vapour and water condensed on particles as clouds dominate the worldwide scene and always will." – . Geoffrey G. Duffy, a professor in the Department of Chemical and Materials Engineering of the University of Auckland, NZ.

"After reading [UN IPCC chairman] Pachauri's asinine comment [comparing skeptics to] Flat Earthers, it's hard to remain quiet." - Climate statistician Dr. William M. Briggs, who specializes in the statistics of forecast evaluation, serves on the American Meteorological Society's Probability and Statistics Committee and is an Associate Editor of Monthly Weather Review.

"The Kyoto theorists have put the cart before the horse. It is global warming that triggers higher levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, not the other way round…A large number of critical documents submitted at the 1995 U.N. conference in Madrid vanished without a trace. As a result, the discussion was one-sided and heavily biased, and the U.N. declared global warming to be a scientific fact," Andrei Kapitsa, a Russian geographer and Antarctic ice core researcher.

"Nature's regulatory instrument is water vapor: more carbon dioxide leads to less moisture in the air, keeping the overall GHG content in accord with the necessary balance conditions." – Prominent Hungarian Physicist and environmental researcher Dr. Miklós Zágoni reversed his view of man-made warming and is now a skeptic. Zágoni was once Hungary's most outspoken supporter of the Kyoto Protocol.

"For how many years must the planet cool before we begin to understand that the planet is not warming? For how many years must cooling go on?" - Geologist Dr. David Gee the chairman of the science committee of the 2008 International Geological Congress who has authored 130 plus peer reviewed papers, and is currently at Uppsala University in Sweden.

"Gore prompted me to start delving into the science again and I quickly found myself solidly in the skeptic camp…Climate models can at best be useful for explaining climate changes after the fact." - Meteorologist Hajo Smit of Holland, who reversed his belief in man-made warming to become a skeptic, is a former member of the Dutch UN IPCC committee.

"The quantity of CO2 we produce is insignificant in terms of the natural circulation between air, water and soil... I am doing a detailed assessment of the UN IPCC reports and the Summaries for Policy Makers, identifying the way in which the Summaries have distorted the science." - South Afican Nuclear Physicist and Chemical Engineer Dr. Philip Lloyd, a UN IPCC co-coordinating lead author who has authored over 150 refereed publications.

"All those urging action to curb global warming need to take off the blinkers and give some thought to what we should do if we are facing global cooling instead" - Geophysicist Dr. Phil Chapman, an astronautical engineer and former NASA astronaut, served as staff physicist at MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

"The 'global warming scare' is being used as a political tool to increase government control over American lives, incomes and decision making. It has no place in the Society's activities." - Award-Winning NASA Astronaut/Geologist and Moonwalker Jack Schmitt who flew on the Apollo 17 mission and formerly of the Norwegian Geological Survey and for the U.S. Geological Survey.

"Earth has cooled since 1998 in defiance of the predictions by the UN-IPCC….The global temperature for 2007 was the coldest in a decade and the coldest of the millennium…which is why 'global warming' is now called 'climate change.'" - Climatologist Dr. Richard Keen of the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at the University of Colorado.

"I have yet to see credible proof of carbon dioxide driving climate change, yet alone man-made CO2 driving it. The atmospheric hot-spot is missing and the ice core data refute this. When will we collectively awake from this deceptive delusion?" - Dr. G LeBlanc Smith, a retired Principal Research Scientist with Australia's Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO).
Here's how to silence a climate change denier:

1. Remind them it is pollution that we are concerned about. Pollution in the air, water and land.
2. examples of places where pollution has gone out of control and what health effects it is having on the people.
3. Bonus points if you can use some of their own conspiracy sites about radiation from Japan's nuclear meltdown, mercury in fish/crops/vegetables causing autism, lead in water/ soil causing ADHD, and direct that towards your point why this is important and why we must focus on cleaning the environment.

My guess, they will either silently agree or try to change their attack to something else. Easier to blame people like Al Gore, than to worry about little things like decline of bees to pollenate food crops. It is my suspicion that these people don't deny the human impacts of the environment, but rather deny that there is anything we can do to fix it. It is a rather defeatist attitude.
Quoting 100. ILwthrfan:

So I am in a discussion with another individual that I frequently blog with and he throws the follow at me...


In the few of those that have actual, clear claims (other than the typical vague "it's a conspiracy," or "there is no proof" arguments) it is so easy to find clear, well-established evidence to the contrary. In those cases if these are actual quotes from actual scientists, then all I can say is that they are either venturing far outside of their areas of expertise or are otherwise just being flat out misleading.

There is really no reason to do a point-by-point rebuttal because each of these are tired, overused, and easy to clear up claims. I feel sorry for your acquaintance and the apparent lack of scientific literacy.
Katharine Hayhoe tweets:
How to talk climate 'round the table? Don't get sucked into science debate: it's just a smokescreen for the real obj'ns, to perceived sol'ns
Katharine Hayhoe has tweeted a series of conversation starters, the obvious alternative to waiting for someone else to frame the conversation and control what you talk about.
Hayhoe: "1. @elonmusk's solar roofs. Cheaper than shingles, who wouldn't want one?!"
Hayhoe: "2. is climate is a pro-life issue? @mitch_at_EEN says, yes it is"
Hayhoe: "3. Fort Hood is saving $168M of taxpayer's money by going renewable"
Hayhoe: "4. Little Georgetown TX is going all-renewable to save big money"
Hayhoe: "5. Many TX oil patch workers lost their jobs due to gas boom-but solar picked them up!"
And it doesn't stop there, nor are you required to pic from her list. She retweets Tim Bell:
Concerned about #climate? Here's one incredibly simple thing you can do about it.

Spoiler: talk about it!
The PIG is about to start voting –

Pine Island Glacier In West Antarctica Is Melting From Inside Out

A rift in Pine Island Glacier ice shelf, West Antarctica, photographed from the air during a NASA Operation IceBridge survey flight, Nov. 4, 2016. This rift is the second to form in the center of the ice shelf in the past three years. The first resulted in an iceberg that broke off in 2015. Photo: NASA/Nathan Kurtz

The rift formed at the very base of the ice shelf nearly 20 miles inland in a region where the ice had thinned compared to the surrounding ice shelf.


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Accelerated ice shelf rifting and retreat at Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica
Authors
Seongsu Jeong,
Ian M. Howat,
Jeremy N. Bassis
First published: 28 November 2016

Abstract

Pine Island Glacier has undergone several major iceberg calving events over the past decades. These typically occurred when a rift at the heavily fractured shear margin propagated across the width of the ice shelf. This type of calving is common on polar ice shelves, with no clear connection to ocean-ice dynamic forcing. In contrast, we report on the recent development of multiple rifts initiating from basal crevasses in the center of the ice shelf, resulted in calving further upglacier than previously observed. Coincident with rift formation was the sudden disintegration of the ice mélange that filled the northern shear margin, resulting in ice sheet detachment from this margin. Examination of ice velocity suggests that this internal rifting resulted from the combination of a change in ice shelf stress regime caused by disintegration of the mélange and intensified melting within basal crevasses, both of which may be linked to ocean forcing.

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Did Föhn Winds Just Melt Two Miles of East Antarctic Surface Ice in One Day?

It’s right there in the satellite image. A swatch of blue that seems to indicate an approximate 2-mile long melt lake formed over the surface of East Antarctica in just one day. If confirmed, this event would be both odd and concerning. A part of the rising signal that melt stresses for the largest mass of land ice on the planet are rapidly increasing.

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The Pine Island Glacier, which is believed to have been thinning for at least 70 years, is particularly vulnerable because it slopes downward inland, leading to the creation of “valleys” that lie below sea level.

“The really troubling thing is that there are many of these valleys further up-glacier. If they are actually sites of weakness that are prone to rifting, we could potentially see more accelerated ice loss in Antarctica,” Howat said. “This kind of rifting behavior provides another mechanism for rapid retreat of these glaciers, adding to the probability that we may see significant collapse of West Antarctica in our lifetimes.”


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The Economist only allows non-subscribers to access one article. So allow me to share some old frat-boy wisdom. Once you've indulged, toss your cookies and you can indulge again!
Quoting 116. BaltimoreBrian:
The Economist only allows non-subscribers to access one article. So allow me to share some old frat-boy wisdom. Once you've indulged, toss your cookies and you can indulge again!
Or use Firefox for Windows and the "Self Destruct Cookies" add-on. You can set it to automatically delete cookies on exiting any website.
True, but whitelisting is a pain and I don't like having to log in to a site after every time I've closed a window. So I toss my cookies when I feel the need.
This needs to be spread far and wide :
On Giving Tuesday, Support Increasingly Embattled Climate Scientists
By: Jeff Masters


Climate science and climate scientists in the United States are likely to be under unprecedented assault by powerful politicians in the coming four years. Climate-change-denying politicians are already in high positions in Congress, and soon we will have a president who has publicly denied climate change science. On Giving Tuesday, November 29, I urge you to make a tax-deductible donation to the nonprofit Climate Science Legal Defense Fund (CSLDF) to help protect the crucial research of climate scientists from political interference.

Link
Neven @ Artic Sea Ice gets a well deserved profile piece on the Washington Post website…

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Quoting 120. RobertWC:

Neven @ Artic Sea Ice gets a well deserved profile piece on the Washington Post website…

Link


From the article:

Curlin is, in the end, a creature of our saddening climate times — in which we have unprecedented volumes of data and analysis available, for the expert and for the amateur alike, allowing us to watch at high resolution as the world burns. It’s fascinating, it’s all-consuming — and sometimes, it’s also devastating. You can be a good analyst, you can even help scientists themselves think about things in a new way — but then, sometimes you also have to stop and feel.
With Temperatures Hitting 1.2 C Hotter than Pre-Industrial, Drought Now Spans the Globe

Jeff Goodell, an American author and editor at Rolling Stone, is noted for saying this: “once we deliberately start messing with the climate, we could inadvertantly shift rainfall patterns (climate models have shown that the Amazon is particularly vulnerable) causing collapse of ecosystems, drought, famine and more.”

We are in the process of testing that theory. In the case of drought, which used to just be a regional affair but has now gone global, Goodell appears to have been right on the money.


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Quoting 118. BaltimoreBrian:True, but whitelisting is a pain and I don't like having to log in to a site after every time I've closed a window. So I toss my cookies when I feel the need.
With the "Self Destruct Cookies" plug-in, you just click the cookie plugin icon in the toolbar and make your choice - the easiest and quickest white-listing and configuration method I've ever seen. You were talking about websites where you don't log in, and this plugin is fantastic for dealing with restrictions at such website's.
Up in other worlds -

A word about the Scribblers, he like Neven, he runs a troll free site. He like Neven , goes dark every now and then , even more than Neven. And like Neven, his readers are some of the smartest most interesting people one will ever read.

If one cares about climate change . He's at it everyday hammer and thongs. And when I stumbled across him years ago , I gave up my own efforts to join him . Now he has world wide readership.
His threads are a deep insight being on the ground .

Why ? Because he throw's the trolls too.

The US free speech idea , ends at the government printing office, and the county courthouse. A blog on the web is a private space. I don't have to listen to the same endless gibberish , over and over, and over.

Or as I have come call them , "Right wing fur balls" .............. Thank-you for hacking up that right wing fur ball. From the same tiny incestuous pod of the old white men for a decade. Who believe that Jesus could have rode a dinosaur.

Neven , many have ended all this . His site was full of things I have never seen , his readers knew what they were doing. his site is a world treasure.
RickyRood has created a new entry.