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Zow! It's Zeta!

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:39 PM GMT on December 30, 2005

The unbelievable Hurricane Season of 2005 has decided to ring in the New Year with a final tropical storm, and a final record. Satellite imagery indicates that an area of low pressure in the eastern Atlantic has developed into Tropical Storm Zeta about 1000 miles south-southwest of the Azores. Zeta is the latest tropical storm on record to form in the Atlantic. The previous record was held by Hurricane Alice of 1954, which also formed on December 30, but earlier in the day than Zeta.

Like its Greek cousins Delta and Epsilon of November, Zeta formed in conditions one would not normally expect a tropical storm to form--sea surface temperatures are only 24 C (2 1/2 degrees below the 26.5 C minimum usually needed), and under wind shear of 20-25 knots (usually, wind shear of 15 knots or less is required.) However, all these storms formed from pre-existing low pressure systems, and these type of systems are more resistant to shear thanks to their well-developed circulations.



Zeta is trapped under a strong ridge of high pressure that will force it to move on a slow westward track for the next three days. A trough of low pressure moving across the central Atlantic may weaken the ridge enough to turn Zeta northwards and recurve it on Monday, but the ridge may be strong enough to insulate Zeta from this trough and keep the storm moving westward through at least five days, when another, stronger trough of low pressure should be able to turn Zeta northwards and dissipate it.

Zeta has an impressive satellite signature today, with good spiral banding and upper-level outflow. There is 20-25 knots of wind shear over the storm, and this shear is expected to increase substatially to 40-50 knots by New Year's Day. This may make Zeta's existence a very short one. The SHIPS intensity model is calling for Zeta to dissipate by January 1. If Zeta can survive past January 1, shear levels are expected to relax, and Zeta could hang around for most of the week. I don't expect Zeta to threaten any land areas, or make it to hurricane strength.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

simply amazing.

it's zeta all right.

oh, and i wonder if any models have addressed a lengthening of the hurricane season with additional energy in tropical waters being available?
Incredible! What an appropriate end to the 2005 season. Is it the latest december forming storm on record?


this has to be a joke. december 30th? jumpin jesus inna chicken basket.

i think this would be the latest december forming storm, unless one formed on the 31st one year.
wow, didn't expect that... was too busy getting ready for the 8-10 inches of rain the So-Cal mountains may be getting in the next few days
I'm glad the guys at NHC had a nice Christmas break...now it's time to get back to work!
That wasn't much of a Christmas Break, but after all the Tropics needed one last surprise in 2005.

Will there even be an off-season? Will Tropical Storm Alberto or Hurricane Alberto be a mid-winter surprise? (It has happened before!)
Yes it is a record - by 9 hours. Hurricane Alice (1954) formed on December 30, 1954 at 2 am EST.
UN-FREAKING BELIEVABLE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This season will never END!!!!!!!
...Late season tropical storm...the 27th of the year...forms in the
eastern Atlantic...
At 1 PM AST...1700z...the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located
near latitude 25.0 north... longitude 36.9 west or about 1070
miles...1720 km... southwest of the Azores.

Zeta is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph ...13 km/hr. A turn
to the west-northwest is expected during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph... 85 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Although some strengthening is possible later today...a
weakening trend is expected to begin tomorrow.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles
...140 km from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb...29.62 inches.

Repeating the 1 PM AST position...25.0 N... 36.9 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 50 mph. Minimum central pressure...1003 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 PM AST.

Forecaster Franklin


This is INSANE!
What are the chances....
The season has to end when the calendar runs out. At least we can probably say, no matter what, the next storm will be Alberto. Whether that is in January or July is another question.
13. IKE
A weakening trend is expected tomorrow!?!?! Right...wink, wink. It'll probably be a hurricane by tomorrow and survive for awhile.

The folks at the NHC are probably ready to jump off of a cliff.

Another storm...I was shocked at first...and almost spilled my coffee on my keyboard, but then realized this is the 2005...er...and 2006 hurricane season. Anything is possible.

UNBELIEVABLE!!!!

AMAZING!!!!!!!
Hey guys, isn't this crazy? lol
15. irvy
Once again, the underground is first on the scene- You guys do good work- now make sure you steer it away from South Florida! OK!
16. IKE
A hurricane/ts on NEW YEARS DAY?

I'm still shaking my head.
Hey 21, Happy New Year from
Zeta!
Zeta!Just had to jump in didja?
...a little later than we expected, but you made it!
Now go take your turn at the end of the line along with your siblings Delta and Epsilon. And no hard left turns please.
You know the way.

Doc out. Have a great day everyone!
(see prev blog's post)

I guess you weren't kidding...Zeta is real..
thanks for being on the ball here and '21 thanks for checking this blog off and on and letting us know about it.

Now we just watch and wait....
My thoughts exactly Irvy.
Just when you might think we've seen it all, along comes Zeta! Absolutely unbelievable, but there it is folks.
Happy New Year!
What a cute lil storm :)
Ooops, hard left turn made already....darn these things don't listen!

ZETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

Ya know if this was April 1st, I'd think it was a prank!
Really out now...
I dont think Zeta will set a new ACE index for the year though--but will be close!
The NHC expects it to weaken in 24hrs??? Can anyone say EPSILON?? (the NHC's worst nightmare) HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE :)
LOL Palm, that's right!
Okay, Dr. Jeff. This pilgrimage of storms ceases to be even mildly humorous.

Since Alice in '54 was in a very bad drought decade for TX and OK (Reference book: The Year No Rain Would Fall) how do the weather patterns in '54 and '05 compare?

Will the tropical outlook stabilize and will we get rain in north Texas?
Tropical Storm Zeta
Amateur Hurricane Center - www.theahc.webhop.net
Advisory 1 - Noon EST December 29, 2005

The amazing hurricane season of 2005 continues with the absolutely mind-blowing formation of Tropical Storm Zeta over the eastern atlantic this morning. Is it possible? No. But since when does the atlantic care? Dvorak numbers are running around T2.5/35kt, QuickScat passes show winds of at least 40kt, and bouy observations show a quickly falling 1006mb pressure...so the initial intensity is 40kt. It is important to note that the eye-like feature visible on visible imagery is NOT an eye - merely a gap in the clouds near the center.

The system has been drifting slowly northwest, and this general motion seems likely to continue, at least in the short term. Thereafter, a turn to the west-northwest is expected as westerlies blow over the system. However...such a turn would only occur if the high shear weakens Zeta, and given Epsilon's behavior a few weeks ago, this does not seem a sure thing. Therefore...the forecast will show a turn, but if the storm does not weaken as forecast the motion will be more northwesterly.

The intensity forecast seems straightforward - or would with the Epsilon Factor removed. Given the recent speedy pressure drop (10mb in 24 hours), Zeta is forecast to strengthen through 12 hours. However, upper-level shear will sharply increase over the storm in about 24 hours, but as we saw with Epsilon, that does not nessessarily affect a shallow, somewhat hybrid system. The forecast calls for dissipation at 48-72 hours, in accordance with model guidance and the NHC. Though it is possible the storm could survive beyond that point, it seems unlikely. However, should the storm survive past about January 2, shear levels are expected to relax, and Zeta could linger as long as a week into the New Year. Working somewhat towards such a lifespan is the once more favorable 200mb temps over the storm, a situation again similar to Epsilon.

No threat to land areas is ever expected from Zeta.

Initial: 25.0N 37.0W 40kt
12 Hour: 26.0N 38.0W 45kt
24 Hour: 26.5N 38.5W 40kt
48 Hour: 26.8N 39.0W 35kt...dissipating
72 Hour: Dissipated near 27.0N 40.0W
...and the hits just keep on coming!
Tropical Storm Alice2 formed at 6 am CST December 30, 1953. It was dissipated January 6, 1954. This is the only January named storm on record, and no storms actually have formed in January.
HOLY!!!!!! What a year!
Greetings from Alaska and Hello to my Floridian friends. My New Years Wish for all of you is a quiet hurricane season for 2006. No more Katrinas or Ritas and the rest of them can just go play in the middle of the ocean somewhere away from land too. It might be boring, but at least no one would be hurt or homeless from the storms. I know, in a perfect world , right? :)

Have a Wonderful New Year bloggers!

Destiny in Alaska
Whoops, I guess Alice2 was in 1954.
we did it we did it we did it wow wow wow now i can say we saw A to Z wow wow this is so cooool we did it we did it we did it wow wow wow what a way to end 2005 and this end time we this have one more day of hurricane year 2005 and we got the Z storm wow wow wow coooooooooooooooooooooool what a way to end 2005
Yup...A to Z, baby!!!
If Zeta becomes a hurricane after Jan. 1 will it be counted as the 15th hurricane of 2005 or the 1st hurricane of 2006?????
gippgig: It would be part of the 2005 season, because it became a named storm in 2005.
Hey everyone,

I just checked in on the NHC site to see if they had completed any new reports for this season. I was shocked to say the least to see an advisory for Tropical Storm Zeta!! I hadn't even thought about looking at the models, satellites,etc. for the past two weeks. Many of us predicted a Zeta to form this season or the possibility thereof, but NOONE including the NHC predicted this one.

Basically, NOONE was even looking for him/her. I know I wasn't.


I'm just waiting for someone to post...Yep, I predicted this storm just two days ago.LOL
Hey hurricanechaser!
what is up with this weather? a ts in the atlantic, flooding rains here in nor cal, and fires in the south west. what's next? or should i even ask?
David,

You can know retire your latest Handle
"KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta"

you got all four of your storms before the last two were a reality....
Maybe a mid-winter hurricane landfall with record snow?
44. rlk
One thing I wonder about is whether systems such as Delta, Zeta, and perhaps Epsilon and Vince would even have been classified as tropical systems in previous years. All three of these are/were atypical, shallow systems over unusually cold water in unusual locations that formed as full-fledged tropical storms from extratropical systems, and I wonder if in previous years systems such as these simply would never have been categorized.

There was a system in the Mediterranean in mid-January about 10 years ago (see this link to Jack Beven's site) that looked a lot like a hurricane also, and apparently systems like that have been recorded before in the Mediterranean. A ship reported 84 MPH winds -- on the higher end of category 1 -- well before the storm reached its peak of organization.

Clearly this season is very unusual (3 very strong cat 5 storms, and two more strong cat 4's); what's not clear to me is whether the seemingly atypical late season storms really are quite as atypical as they seem, or whether we're simply classifying these systems as tropical when in previous years that might not have been the case.

Alice's track in 1954 looked more like a classic hurricane -- it formed as a tropical depression in the tropics (or at least subtropics) and eventually recurved.
ok, the latest water vapor loop looks similar to what we've already seen this season with Epsilon where there are both signs of strenthening in the near term with hints of westerly shear impinging on the storms overall circulation.

If you look at it closely, you will see the convection increasinging on its North and NW quadrent as it tries to wrap around the circulation center. If this continues, it will most certainly increase in intensity.

This is a straightforward analysis and anticipation for the next 12 to 24 hours. The big question is whether the convection will continue to wrap itself around the circulation center from the North to NW to South and NE or will the shear that is already noticable on this water vapor loop be able to make its way into Zeta's inner core in time to halt any significant strenthening.

The best guess right now would be continued strenthening with the recent increased deep convection around the center with the shear first creating a steady state system followed by weakening past 24 hours. Therefore, I am going to hesitantly suggest that this hybrid will reach 55-60 mph. No forecast for maximum intensity can be assured based on the such a short time frame of less than 3 hours. I will have to say that the atmospheric conditions are more respresentative of Epsilons environment during the last couple of days when she was pulsating every couple of hours with no definate trend being sustained. That being said, it is simply too early to predict its maximum intensity without a persistent trend for at least 3 hours as I know you've all heard me say before. It takes that long for any sustained convection to influence a change in intensity. Any convection that develops and fades within 2 hours will generally have no effect on the intensification process (i.e. strengthening).
Hey Tony (tornadoty). Sorry I just saw your post. It's great to see everyone back in here again.:)
Hey rlk...Honestly, you bring up an excellent point. I would have to suggest that previous seasons such as 1933 had these hybrid sytems that had obvious subtropical characteristics were not declared tyropical cyclones and thus skews the official record. In other words, I do believe this season has been the most active on record but it is being cushioned by these hybrid storms in a way 1933 wasn't at a time there was obviously true tropical storms missed since there was no satellite imagery available to even locate them in the first place.
I'm going to go bold on this one and predict that Zeta actually DOES reach hurricane intensity. By this time tomorrow, I think it will be a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. After that, it will just meander and slow down before dissipating in about a week.
Forgot to give the latest water vapor link.:)



Link
Hey Crazy,

At this point your bold prediction isn't that "crazy"...lol. It is a possibilty that can't be discounted with a hybrid like Zeta. However, I wili go on record and predict this far in advance that Zeta doesn't quite achieve hurricane intensity. How close it will come waits to be seen. I must add this disclamer as should anyone in forecasting..."I reserve the right to change my mind".:)
Hey everyone,

I wish I could hang around and watch what happens, especially those 3 to 6 hour trends of persistence that is the key to its future intensity. Unfortunately, I have to take care of more important responsibilties right now (my Dad is talking about suicidal thoughts) and I hope to return late tonight. I wonder how strong Zeta will be by then.:)

I hope everyone has a wonderful day and an even better "New Year".:)

Your friend,
Tony


Good luck hurricanechaser! God Bless!
They have got to be kidding....I am going to buy some Starbuck's for those forecasters working at NHC and ship it to them.

Dr. Masters, do you want some also?
By the great prophet Zarquon! ZETA ?! See what happens when I take my eye off the ball and start printing recipes from the blog ?!

News Flash !!

We are now predicting the 2005 hurricane season to continue through March of 2007.

It was previously considered impossible for one season to extend into subsequent years, but since every other law of physics has been broken by this season's storms, this just seems obvious.


heheheheheh


57. TBA
Actually the 2005 Hurricane season will end at 12:00 midnight EST on Dec 31. Any storms that form in Jan-May 2006 will be in the 2006 Hurricane season.



You gotta be f********* kidding!
Boy after reading discussion 2, you'd think the NHC guys are fed up with this season and will be happy to be done with the Greek letters.... I seem to remember with Epsilon they got fed up with that storm, at one point quipping "I wont even try to venture an intensity forecast" or something to that effect since the storm kept breaking all the rules...

Anyone want to place odds we return to greek letters next year?

<<
Although the atmosphere seems to want to develop tropical storms ad
nauseam...the calendar will shortly put an end to the use of the
greek alphabet to name them.
>>
Very little chance of this one lasting past tomorrow aft/evng. It'll accompany us just to the end of year, then bow out, in a most timely way.
re: greek letters. Maybe the North Atlantic stays busy enough so the NHC adopts the western Pacific practice of constantly-cycling names. Example: if the last storm of a year is Vince, the first of next year's is Wilma, not Alphonso. Would solve the problem of retiring Greek letters like Beta ...
Maybe it just wants to hang around to watch the ball drop :)
I actually think sending the NHC coffee is a brilliant plan. If anyone here lives in/near Miami, perhaps they could deliver it with our thanks for their hard work.
Link

Absolutely unbeleivable! Are they going to extend the hurricane season to year round?
Zeta comes and Zeta goes
You never know the way the wind blows
If you thought this year kept you on the run
Wait till next year for TWICE the fun

Love and Light to All,
Sean White
Starbucks has gift certificates and the NHC's address in Miami is:

National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
That's correct TBA, after 0000 UTC tomorrow (7:00 pm EST), the next storm to form will be named Alberto - not Eta, and the next depression will be numbered 1 - not 31.
Guess the tropics felt neglected, nobody paying attention to them for, gosh, days!

I have no idea what the next Greek letter is, and I really don't want to find out!
Next Greek letter is Eta - but it has a little over 24 hours to form.
Wow. OK now this is getting ridiculous. It looks like the only way the 2005 hurricane season is going to end is because we ran out of 2005. The next Greek letters are Eta, Theta and Iota. With a little over a day left I'd say this is the end, but it's 2005 so what do I know? (sigh of exasperation):> Have a great New Year everyone. I'll be back sometime early week with a new blog.
Unfortunately, we will probably be hearing forever about "the record breaking 26 storms and 13 hurricanes of 2005". A serious effort should be made to inform everyone - especially the news media - that there was a 27th storm & 14th hurricane (Epsilon) - but wait until Jan. 1 & Zeta is gone!
Hey there me2ca, thanks for the info on Pacific names. I was wondering how they handled it over there, since it seems like they have that situation a lot in the western Pacific. But this season in the Atlantic must have them all beat!
Does it seem like the Pacific (or at least parts of it) have been kind of tame and quiet this year compared to the Atlantic? Maybe in other years (like 2006?) things will heat up over there again and the Atlantic will get a little bit of a break.

I'm also wondering if we'll be seeing any South Atlantic storms this season.

Michael that was too funny!
RLK, that was a GREAT link about the Mediterranean cyclone. That storm wasn't "tropical" but seemed to have cyclonic circulation around a warm core. And it seems like the "polar low" is an even more extreme case of the same thing, because the core could still be below freezing and still have a 'warm core' compared with the rest of the storm. They're just gonna have to re-examine their definitions at the NHC.
Hurricanechaser, hope your emergency situation doesn't become tragic. Our thoughts and prayers are with you. Your insights here are appreciated.
Hey everyone,

I am back and will be going to see my Dad tomorrow. I believe He will be ok in time. Most importantly, I want to personally thank Palmetto, Phillyfan, and tornadoty (tony) for your thoughtfulness, concern, and prayers in such a personal matter for me.

Despite the fact I have a great appreciation for everyones input regarding the weather, it pales in comparison to my respect for each of you as individuals. Thanks so much for all you do and who you are.

Your friend,
Tony


Anytime, Chaser....
Clearly the tropics are just playing with us.



Zeta on Water Vapor. :)

Happy New Year!

- Miraweb
Hey Phillyfan,

YOu bring up an important observation regarding the correlations between Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone development and their Atlantic Basin counterparts. Geberally speaking, an active (above normal) Eastern Pacific season usually correlates to near normal or even below normal Atlantic seasons. The same is true for an active Atlantic corresponding to a relatively inactive Eastern Pacific. The correlation generally isn't that significamce betwee Western Pacific development and Atlantic cyclones.

The most significant reason is the ENSO climate cycle which relates to the water temperatures just off Peru that have remained neutral (defined by near normal sea surface temperatures)the past couple of seasons. However, a warming trend of these waters refered to as an El Nino event not ony have significant effects on weather around the globe but also directly upon the Atlantic Basin hurricane activity as well as the activity in the Eastern Pacific. Specifically, below normal Atlantic development induced by stronger than normal westerly wind shear blowing east to west across the Atlantic. In contrast, These warmer waters help induce more frequent tropical storms for the Eastern Pacific as a result. The reverse is true in the La Nina cycle which is defined by these same sea surface temperatures characterized by below normal temperatures which in turn significantly alters the wind shear in the upper levels and becomes very conducive for Atlantic Tropical cyclone genesis. The cooler waters usually creates less favorable conditions for the Eastern Pacific storms.

Interesting, it appears we may not only have a neutral ENSO phase but even could become a weak La Nina for the upcoming 2006 hurricane season. However, one should not simply assume that this will in itself determine a new season of 20 plus storm formations because there are other climatic factors involved. It simply means the 2006 season will not be inhibited whatsoever by the El Nino phase of the El Nino cycle. That being said, I personally expect a very active 2006 season but not close to this years levels.


Kokopeli! The flute player, water spirit.....
Sorry big correction.:)

Specifically, below normal Atlantic development induced by stronger than normal westerly wind shear blowing WEST to EAST across the Atlantic.

Please excuse the typo..gerberally speaking..lol:)
Wow...I'm sorry I didn't proof read my post.:)

I will check back in later. I hope you all are having a great night.:)

Your friend,
Tony
Hurricanechaser, if this is a La Nia winter, then I am in big trouble come spring. The last La Nia winter (1998-1999) was followed by a tremendous midwest tornado season (specifically 4/8-9/99 and 5/3/99). Furthermore, the Super Outbreak of 4/3-4/74, with 148+ tornadoes, 24+ F4s, and 6 F5s, followed a La Nia winter. So I will be busy next year.
hey hurricanechaser we did it we got from A to Z this year wow and i got a big storm comeing in with 60mph winds and higher the lowet mb i have see so far from this storm is 29.57 or 1001mb and falling how low will it go!
I had a dream once. My posts went through - LOL.

I issued an advisory on Zeta this morning, and will issue another one tonight. For sat images and NHC graphics:

http://s91794711.onlinehome.us/ncw/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=188

For my latest advisories:

http://s91794711.onlinehome.us/ncw/phpBB2/viewforum.php?f=8

And for a slightly easier-to-remember url:

www.theahc.webhop.netLink
86. Inyo
I don't have the picture anymore but i once saw a sattelite image of a storm that looked much like that hitting San Francisco.. It had hurricane-force winds but was cold-core. There are records of non tropical systems developing eyes when they become intense, but it is rare.. and hard to define them.
I think they ought to retire the Greek alphabet :-)

Happy New Year everyone!
Happy_July_4th.gif
We need some scientific help, here.

DMS816 lost his family homestead in the 9th Ward during Katrina. Next month, the bulldozers come in and take down the house and tree his father planted. The tree, a pine, survived the storm and is still alive.

Please apply all those left-brain skills you have and drop him a note on his site with suggestions about grafting, etc to save the stock from his father's tree.

Thanks, and Happy New Year.

Dallas
Hey all.. How is everyone tonight?
Unbelievable. Just now I go to my favorites looking for a website, and accidentally I click on the water vapor image and there is Zeta?!?!?!?! I was stunned, and I thought I was going to be the first to know about it, then informing you all. However, we are the WUNDERGROUND and we get info first. Nice work Jeff Masters reported YET another storm hehehehe.

Happy new years.

88889, here it is.
I do predict it will be a hurricane by tomorow. It will obviously head east and dissapate thereafter :)
I used to live in Florida.... Need I explain to ANYONE why I moved to Minnesota...LOL

I prefer a snow storm to a rain storm..... But that's only 6 months outta the year though....

"...this is GOD's Country! Here in Minnesota, people walk on water 6 months outta the year!"

--as said by my dad on numorus occasions--
I'm in the Twin Cities...today was walking on slush. Commute was a breeze though (hey, 5" of snow doesn't slow us down).
INCREDIBLE! I guess it's still 2005!
Just spent the last 4 days in the Keys. The weather couldn't have been nicer, perhaps i'll update my blog. But to come back to Zeta! I had seen a hint of the possiblity before i left. Then to spend the days seeing what (mostly) Wilma had done. The rebuilding & repairs are incredible. They started with mostly tourists stuff~ it's open & on down there. I ignored the internet, coupled with the in the face of adversity we shall rebuild attitude going on down there a new storm was still a shock.

As for Zeta~ i think she'll, over the next 4-5 days, head generally (with a few wild wobbles) NW, perhaps more Northward toward day 4. Intensifing, weaking & intensifing again, into a smaller compact storm along the way.
Trouper415 mail for you one last hurricane of 2005
good night ever one
well who'd have guessed we'd get one more storm for the record books?! I'm out of province on vacation and justthought I'd check in and whoooooooo... another TS!

... anyways, this gives me a chance to wish all of you all the best and a happy new year...

How come the name Alice was used so many times from 1953-1954? In checking the tropical weather archive, the name Alice was the first storm of the 1953 Hurricane season and the first and last storm name used in 1954.

Can someone explain this?
Those were the first years of naming hurricanes, and at the time they had only one name list - which started with Alice. So the first storm in 1953 was Alice, as was the first in 1954. However, Hurricane Alice2 was AT THE TIME believed to have formed in 1955 - but was later redetermined to have been part of the 1954 season. Therefore, 1954 has two Alices and 1955 started with 'B'.
If a storm forms in January, I guess it will start with A for whatever the A name is for Season 2006, right?

And has that ever happened for one to form in Jan, Feb, or March....I know there was one in April before.
103. IKE
ZETA getting better organized. Is anyone surprised? Could it make it to a hurricane? Yes is a possibility. Need to fix a pot of coffee and drink it to realize I'm not dreaming. A named storm on New Years Day.

Happy New Years to all AND to ZETA!!!!!!!!!!!!!
104. IKE
Per forecaster Stewart at the NHC....."but I would
prefer to wait and see if the CDO-like feature persists for at
least another 6 hours before increasing the intensity any further."

UNBELIEVABLE!!!!!!!!! Dam storm COULD make it to a greekacane.

The SHIPS intensity model is calling for Zeta to dissipate by January 1


hmmm i think it may be comethe frist ever hurricans of 2006 so i think it will last longer the jan 1st any of you think?
i live in ca and i would like to no what time on my tv will i see the ball dorp in new york i no it drops at 12am but what time can i see the ball drop in ca on tv any one?
Hey there KRWZ, watch your TV at 9pm tonight, that's what time it will be in California when it's midnight here in the East.
KRWZ, check this out:

Link
So, it should be 9 PM, your time..... (smile)
Good heavens, KRWZ, what in the world are you doing up at that ungodly hour out there? LOL
Hurricanechaser, thanks for the explanation. I'm not sure I followed it all, but it seems like in an El Nino year when there is extra warm water in the eastern Pacific, there is more shear (and fewer hurricanes) in the Atlantic. And vice versa too, if the Eastern Pacific is unusually cool then there is less shear over the Atlantic and more hurricanes. I think I followed that! ;-)

Tornadoty, it doesn't sound very good for the midwest this spring. It almost seems like November was a preview. BTW did we have a La nina in November, and is that why there were so many tornadoes in Indiana etc. ?
hey palmettobug53

hey phillyfan909

we are geting it hard over her so any way what up happy new year to you
hey palmettobug53 thanks for the link what is it any way
would it be fuuny if a cat 5 hurricane would hit new york at 12 am or right on 2006! hehehehehehe this kinding!
KRWZ bite your tongue! ;-)

And happy new year!!
Just a place you can go to see what time it is in the different zones of the US. Haven't really looked at it in depth, but think you can also use it to see what time it is anywhere in the world.
BBL....blog hoppin this morning!
hey phillyfan909 i was this kinding on that post there but any way whats up i hop you are haveing a good new year over her we been geting it hard with high winds
i see palmettobug53 thanks
i be back soon
KRWZ I know you were kidding, that's ok. It's not that I care about NY City that much, but it's only 100 miles away from me. (now it's my turn to be just kidding!)

Weather here isn't very exciting but that's ok. About 40 degrees, gray overcast, occasional rain, very little wind. Not like in California.
Happy New Year
Hey Phillysfan,

We are currently still in the neutral phase of the ENSO cycle. There are currently signs that a weak La Nina could develop in time for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season for 2006. And you got the interpretation of my explanation absolutely correct.:) I hope you have a great New years Day:)

Thanks,
Tony


hey hurricanechaser happy new year
It would only be natural for Zeta to become a hurricane in the last advisory of 2005...
Have a Happy New Year, everyone!
Happy new years everyone.
wow this storm is big come to my blog when you get a ch a take a look at the mb i am get from this storm you will say wow! no why the lowet mb i have see from this storm is 29.08 yes that is the right mb so come to my blog and say wow
Zeta
words to say
never became a cane
died on 1-4-06
wow..
what a year that was
Deleted Post.