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Zeta (again!), and the Texas drought

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:06 PM GMT on January 05, 2006

I was hoping to be able to declare an end to the Hurricane Season of 2005 today, but Zeta had other ideas. After weakening to a tropical depression last night, Zeta has made another comeback and is a tropical storm again. Satellite imagery is showing deep convection moving in towards Zeta's center on the east side, and both ship reports and satellite measurements support calling Zeta a tropical storm once again. The wind shear has apparently dropped this morning, allowing the re-organization. This is likely to be short-lived, and extremely high levels of wind shear are forecast to impact the storm tonight. This shear will surely tear Zeta apart by Saturday at the latest.

The Texas/Oklahoma drought
The latest drought map for the U.S. was released today, as it is every Thursday by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Comparing today's image to the one from a month ago shows the steady increase in area and severity of the drought affecting Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and surrounding areas. Today's drought map now puts the Dallas/Fort Worth metro area into the "exceptional" drought category, the most severe category of drought. Ninety-day rainfall totaled less than half normal across the southern Mississippi Valley, resulting in "severe" drought expanding into northeastern Arkansas and southwestern Missouri, while the "extreme" drought in southern Texas joined the extreme drought area in the north. Twelve-month rainfall deficits exceed 20 inches in southeast Oklahoma, northeast Texas, southwest Arkansas, and parts of Louisiana. It's ironic to note that had Hurricane Rita hit Houston and moved northward across Dallas/Fort Worth as originally forecast, her 4-8 inch rains would have likely saved tens of millions of dollars in drought damage the area is seeing now. Of course, Rita would have done billions in other damage, so I'm sure given the choice, the drought-stricken areas will take the drought!

Easing of the Northwestern U.S. drought
Figure 1 also shows a marked easing of the drought affecting the Northwest U.S., where most areas have been under a significant 5-7 year drought. While just one season of rains cannot put enough groundwater back into the aquifers to fully break such a long term drought, conditions this winter are a fantastic turn around for an area that was under extreme to exceptional drought for years.


Figure 1. Drought maps for December 6 and January 3, showing the progression of the drought over Texas, and the relaxing of the drought over the Northwestern U.S.

Jeff Masters
Wildfire near Stephenville
Wildfire near Stephenville
This wildfire was put out by the brave firefighters in Erath County, TX on January 3rd, 2006

Drought

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Good information. Thanks for the update Dr Masters!
a bried look at the fire hazard warnings over the last several days shows dangerous conditions moving much farther south. whereas red flag warnings were confined to OK and N. TX last week, now they have been issued for metro Houston, San Antonio, even down the coastal bend to Corpus. these dry cold fronts are killing us in Central TX! last year it wouldn't stop raining with them.


Link
Link

oops here's the nws warnings map
If it lasts past the Midnight Update Tonight It Breaks the "Longet Lasting Tropical Storm in January" Record
Old Record is Alice Of Course fo 5.75 Days
amazing rose bowl last night - too bad t.u. can't bring back some of that excess CA moisture with them!
Zeta is amazing...I hope she breaks the record, as long as she poses no harm.

Out of curiosity, if there had been another names storm to have formed before January 1, what would have come after Zeta?

Thanks,
Mark
The Oklahoma Climate Survey has a couple of interesting maps that they update daily showing the consecutive number of days since the last rainfall greater than 0.1" and 0.25" from the Oklahoma Mesonet. These are accessible from the OCS/Mesonet Ticker Home Page

days less than 0.25"

days less than 0.10"
Eta would have been next.
Eta, Theta, and Iota were coming up.
followed by kappa, lambda, mu, nu, xi, omicron, pi, rho, sigma, tau, upsilon, phi, chi, psi and omega.

just out of curiosity, is there any provision for what happens when a greek name is retired? is that letter just skipped the next year that alphabet must be used?

also, what happens if a single season exhausts both the regular list and the greek alphabet?
For the probably ten thousandth time - no, there is no procedure for retiring Greek names.

No, there's no provision for after the greek...god forbid we need one O_O_O
I really feel for ya'll in the drought sticken areas. So much that i'd have to repectfully disagree with Dr Masters here ~ i'd take a hurricane over an exceptional drought any day. In fact during the 1998 drought, that's what eveyone prayed for around here~ a storm, prefurably a wet tropical one. El Nino brought a mild, wet winter, everything grew. Then, mid spring, the rains stopped & 95 deg F + temps began, high pressure with a strong wind from the west. By summer, temps were 100-110. East central fl started burning to the ground. 100's of homes & businesses were lost in our county alone. For months the smoke was so bad, we did nothing outside, terrible for the pony's respitory tract, people with asthma had it real rough. At the time, i worked a few days a week in Seminole, many times we were detoured huge distances to go around the enormous fire lines. At least the tolls were suspended, due to the evacuations. We were in a constant state of concern, for our lawns, our wells, the animals & with sprinkles purchased to go on the roof, our home. There were crazy stessed out people out there on July 4th with guns, ready to shot anyone possessing fireworks. It came to a head when the county north of us was evacuated. Volusia told everyone to go, even on beachside, mandatory. The govenor had told the tourist to go elseware, months before. Lucky for us, the 100 acres to the west of the neighborhood never caught a fire. But I-95 had burned, in some places on both sides, from just south of Jacksonville down through most of Brevard county, along with a lot of other land in central fl. It forever changed the scenery. Since then we gave our firefighters all new state of the art trucks & about anything else they've asked for. Damage from a hurricane would most likely cost more, but you can hide from the wind & probibly find a few of your things afterward. The drought fires, all you could do was have sprinklers ready for your roof & some stuff packed. After Frances & Jeanne we all joked~ atleast the state wasn't on fire.
You can clearly see the low developing off the coast on this GFS run:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2006010512&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
check out my blog, i have my theory of the drought on it and when the drought will probbaly end.
Wow, I had no idea the drought was so bad around D/FW (my hometown). That shot of Lake Lavon is shocking.
The next tropical storm would be named Alberto. 2005 is over, so we are done with the Greek alphabet for now. (evil cackle) I think that the low predicted to form off Africa is the last chance for anything to develop until around May. Colby, what's your opinion on the low, and is it possible to tell the difference between a tropical and extratropical cyclone by looking at those models?
folks I'm sure that this has been asked before, but did the 2005 hurricane season (and the need to apply ever more Greek names) end on December 31st, or will any storms that form through the winter before the "traditional" start of the new hurricane season still be considered part of the "2005 season"?
A question I posed in yesterday's blog:
- is whether these very persistent and tenacious hybrid storms like Zeta, Vince, and Gamma (which seem to be a phenomenon not seen before this season) represent the shape of things to come with global climate change? Could we end up with hurricanes forming throughout the year, just with more frequent and damaging storms in summer/fall?
It doesn't matter how much climate change we have, thermodynamics don't change. However, if Alberto forms next week, all bets are off.

California Severe Storm & Flooding

This bulletin identifies a disaster-affected area. The information should be reviewed by all associates. Loan officers, borrowers, and correspondents must be notified that the required property inspection process could delay the funding of their loans. Make arrangements for immediate property inspections on any loans that may be time sensitive such as purchases.


DISASTER AREA
CALIFORINA

Affected Areas
Counties of Del Norte, Humboldt, Mendocino, Napa, Sacramento, Sonoma, Trinity, Butte, El Dorado, Lake, Lassen, Marin, Nevada, Placer, Plumas, San Joaquin, San Mateo, Sierra, Siskiyou, Solano, Sutter, Yolo, and Yuba.
Zip Code List will follow.
Tropical Storm Alpha update is out by the nhc what all take a look
Califonia what about sonora ca and angel camp ca?
hi Colby, I recognize the immutability of the laws of thermodynamics, but there is more than just thermodynamics at play here.

Each tropical system represents a complex interplay between atmospheric and ocean conditions (including lots of interrelationships that we don't understand yet) - how else do we explain these never-before-seen systems if not as a symptom of global climate change?
24. F5
They may or may not be unprecedented. For starters, how accurate is our tracking and for how long? As mentioned in a previous blog of either Dr. Masters or Steve Gregory, there may have been other storms like these last few that simply were nothing more than blips on shipping radars, due to the inability to properly monitor them. Satellite radar, ocean buoys, ship data, airplane reconnaisance, etc., at the required sophistication level haven't been around all that long. So, it is entirely possible that these events are not unprecedented, simply missed in the past.

KRWZ:

Sonora is in Tuolumne County; Angel's Camp is in Calavaras County.

Neither of those is listed on the "Disaster" bulletin at this time.

hey F5, it's possible that these sort of systems were missed in the more distant past but we've had the same tools we have now for quite a few years. Seems strange that we've not spotted anything like these systems until this year.

It's 88 degrees here in Orange County right now (about 3 p.m.) with the hot Santa Winds blowing from the mountains to the north and east.

Pretty comfy for January! :)


That's "Santa Ana Winds"...
i found this after doing some research, it sheds light on the drought and its cause, also how similar it is to the dust bowl. similar to the theory i have on my blog.

NASA Explains 'Dust Bowl' Drought

NASA scientists have an explanation for one of the worst climatic events in the history of the United States, the "Dust Bowl" drought, which devastated the Great Plains and all but dried up an already depressed American economy in the 1930's.




Siegfried Schubert of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md., and colleagues used a computer model developed with modern-era satellite data to look at the climate over the past 100 years. The study found cooler than normal tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures combined with warmer tropical Atlantic Ocean temperatures to create conditions in the atmosphere that turned America's breadbasket into a dust bowl from 1931 to 1939. The team's data is in this week's Science magazine.

These changes in sea surface temperatures created shifts in the large-scale weather patterns and low level winds that reduced the normal supply of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and inhibited rainfall throughout the Great Plains.

"The 1930s drought was the major climatic event in the nation's history," Schubert said. "Just beginning to understand what occurred is really critical to understanding future droughts and the links to global climate change issues we're experiencing today," he said.

By discovering the causes behind U.S. droughts, especially severe episodes like the Plains' dry spell, scientists may recognize and possibly foresee future patterns that could create similar conditions. For example, La Nias are marked by cooler than normal tropical Pacific Ocean surface water temperatures, which impact weather globally, and also create dry conditions over the Great Plains.

The researchers used NASA's Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) atmospheric general circulation model and agency computational facilities to conduct the research. The NSIPP model was developed using NASA satellite observations, including; Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System radiation measurements; and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project precipitation data.

The model showed cooler than normal tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures and warmer than normal tropical Atlantic Ocean temperatures contributed to a weakened low-level jet stream and changed its course. The jet stream, a ribbon of fast moving air near the Earth's surface, normally flows westward over the Gulf of Mexico and then turns northward pulling up moisture and dumping rain onto the Great Plains. As the low level jet stream weakened, it traveled farther south than normal. The Great Plains dried up and dust storms formed.

The research shed light on how tropical sea surface temperatures can have a remote response and control over weather and climate. It also confirmed droughts can become localized based on soil moisture levels, especially during summer. When rain is scarce and soil dries, there is less evaporation, which leads to even less precipitation, creating a feedback process that reinforces lack of rainfall.

The study also shed light on droughts throughout the 20th century. Analysis of other major U.S. droughts of the 1900s suggests a cool tropical Pacific was a common factor. Schubert said simulating major events like the 1930s drought provides an excellent test for computer models. While the study finds no indication of a similar Great Plains drought in the near future, it is vital to continue studies relating to climate change. NASA's current and planned suite of satellite sensors is uniquely poised to answer related climate questions.

NASA's Earth Science Enterprise funded the study. The Enterprise is dedicated to understanding the Earth as an integrated system and applying Earth System Science to improve climate, weather, and natural hazard prediction using the unique vantage point of space. For information about NASA and agency programs on the Internet, visit:
Califonia any news on angel creek in angel camp is it runing high at this time?
If Zeta somehow survives a few more days it'll be within range of the hurricane hunters - or are they shut down for winter?
Quote from Snowboy:
folks I'm sure that this has been asked before, but did the 2005 hurricane season (and the need to apply ever more Greek names) end on December 31st, or will any storms that form through the winter before the "traditional" start of the new hurricane season still be considered part of the "2005 season"?

Snowboy,

As has been previously explained, the need for the Greek alphabet ended with the 2005 calendar year.

Any new storms will use the 2006 name list starting with Alberto.

The name lists are for the calendar year and not just the "huuricane season".
33. Inyo
I'll take a flood over a drought any day. You can't run from a drought, and the droughts (and associated fires) don't stay in the canyon bottoms. Also, floods can do a lot of damage to southern California, but a drought of the type we have seen evidence of in tree rings, in the last 1000 years, could make the area completely uninhabitable to most of the people. Which might not be a bad thing... but i don't want to see the drought anyway.

after the recent storms, we are at or a bit above our average rainfall out here for the winter... the creeks are running well, but nothing like last year at this time when everything was under water.
neeed help



Link


what going on her oh is the Z storm her?
Zounds! Zeta lives!
thanks so much for that info, LKCMSL - so the 2006 hurricane season is underway!
TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORT FOR TROPICAL STORM ALPHA IS OUT BY THE NHC WHAT ALL TAKE A LOOK
Quote from Snowboy:
thanks so much for that info, LKCMSL - so the 2006 hurricane season is underway!

No prob.

And if a new storm forms, while Zeta is still hanging around, it will probably be the first time that two hurricane seasons "overlapped". 8=0
hey LKMSL, hadn't thought about that. That would be way cool (another first for the record books), esp. since these Atlantic storms aren't threatening death and destruction
Regarding the Greek alpha, our local paper had an article about Zeta this morning. It states that the Greek alphabet will not be used again:

" Zeta will be the last tropical storm to have a Greek alphabet name. Starting this year, forecasters will use a reserve list of English alphabet names if the annual list of 21 names is exhausted, Pasch said.

Unsettlingly enough, after a year when the English list was exhausted in mid-October, the reserve list will also have 21 names. "

He was quoting NHC specialist, Richard Pasch. To read the full article, go to:

Link
what do they mean this would be the only time we see the Z storm?
I have been a lurker here for about 2 years, never making a post. I have to say that I really enjoy reading a majority of the posts and blogs that are on this site. ForcasterColby and hurricanechaser seem to be the one that I enjoy the most.

I have to say at times it gets really really old to keep reading the same questions over and over and over again. Recently in one of the 170 post blogs, I counted at least 7 or 8 posts asking the same questions. People it doesn't take that long to read through previous posts to get your answer.... sorry about the Rant.

I'm originally from Central Florida(both as a Civie and as an Enlisted man in the Navy) and moved to Alabama where the 'Canes seemed to be following me. :) I enjoy coming here every day to see the latest on the next TS or 'Cane.

I wanted to add my two cents into the posts above about how come we "never" really took into account the "hybrid" systems that we seem to have see pop up this year. My guess would be that if we go back to the previous peak in activity in the Atlantic basin, it would put us in the 30's-70's (I could be wrong with the span) and our technology with satellites and ship observations has greatly improved in the last 3 decades. I believe that these storms existed before, but now we can get much more detailed information with our new Satellites.

Who knows what we may find out in the next 30 years. It could be found that there are more storms that should be classified as a "tropical" or warm core storm. Some of those polar lows look interesting.

Anyways, keep up the good work Jeff, and I look forward to reading everyones comments.. :)



interesting article palmettobug53, thanks
- I'm glad to see the end of the greek letters
Well KRWZ, if you take 2 seconds, and take into context what was saidm there will be no more Zeta storm ever.

No more Greek Alphabet either. There is going to be a primary list of name's and a secondary list of English names in case we go over 21 storms.

Now, that wasn't hard to figure out from that nice post that palmettobug53 posted... did you really have to ask that question?
I think Zeta is the first North Atlantic storm to have a name starting with "Z" since the regular list of names excludes "Z".
hey SickOfDumbQuestions, sorry for my contribution to the long list of dumb questions... :-)

On another note, it is possible that the weird end-of-season storms we're seeing now were around before and that we just didn't have the technology to see them. It's also possible that they represent something new, and are a symptom of larger-scale shifts in atmospheric dynamics resulting from global climate change. It would be prudent to take the latter possibility into account and think about what the impliactions might be.
hmmm i loike to no what kind of name's they got for the 2nd one if we go over 21 like we did this year
hey SODQ, you have mail...

and KRWZ, there may be a place where you can get the list (and reserve list for 2006) - anyone have a link? we may need the first name soon...
No, snowboy, I haven't gotten that far, as to looking up a list of the backup names! I don't know if I even WANT to know! LOL
Forecasters predict that hurricane seasons will be more active than usual for at least another decade.

MIAMI, Florida (AP) -- Zeta again strengthened into a tropical storm Thursday and could break the record for the storm lasting the longest into January since record keeping began in 1851
According to the NHC site, the greek names are still used.
Zeta will go back to 30kt at the 10PM advisory, though why I don't know.
so maybe the site needs updating - it was an NHC forecaster that was being interviewed in palmettobug53's article...
They won't update anything about storm names until they receive the revised list for 2011.
Let me apologize if my post came off much more negative than it should. After reading through it again after it posted, I felt that the tone was harsh and want to apologize to all whom I angered or offended.

A quick statement from me:

Tropical Storm Zeta
Amateur Hurricane Center
www.theahc.webhop.net
Statement - 9:00PM EST January 5, 2006

Again, there is not enough change with Zeta to issue an advisory. However, a breif update:

Zeta continues to fire deep convection, and is appearing somewhat more likely to survive the oncoming trough. Cold cloud tops down to as low as -70c are evident quite near the center, and the low and mid-level circulations are stacked again. Normally, I would increase initial intensity now, but a QuickScat pass does not show any uncontaminated 30kt(35mph) vectors. Given that convection has developed over the area where tropical storm force winds were observed earlier, however, I will assume 35kt(40mph) winds exist there and leave the forecast as-is.
Tropical Storm Alpha update is out by the nhc what all take a look
They didn't downgrade it! I'm glad, but a bit suprised - the models initialized at 30kt and that's a pretty solid indicator.
thanks KRWZ for the notice on the NHC update, I just spent some time at the NOHC site checking out the sat images

- pretty cool that you came up with the KRWZ name when two of the storms (Wilma and Zeta) hadn't formed yet, and when no one thought there would ever be a Zeta..
Hey Colby,

I'm very glad they didn't downgrade it too. I've already given up tracking Zeta once today when it became a depression (I only track storms and hurricanes). I don't want to stop again only to find it resurrected again tomorrow!

Dave

Dave Foster's Hurricane Pages
hey hurricane Wilma where hurricane Fred hehehe would you like to go out for a pizza tonight hehehe

snowboy yes it is so what are they say whit the A storm #2 update?
Wow ... still a tropical storm... barely...Didn't expect to see that.
Bye to greek names. In the article that was mentioned above a decision hadn't been made concerning Zeta's statistics. Since it formed in 2005, I think the statistics should be included in 2005.
SickOfDumbQuestions- This is a place for people who know nothing about weather to learn. Dont come here and critisize other people. If you have nothing better to do then thats pretty sad. quit complaining about peoples questions.
Hehe, let me rephrase that. There are people here who know nothing about weather and thus, this is a place for them to learn. There are also very knowledgeable people here who help the needy. A true equilibrium.
THESE NUMBERS COULD CHANGE...AS CINDY MAY BE UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE
AT LANDFALL IN LOUISIANA...AND EMILY MAY HAVE BRIEFLY REACHED
CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH.

any news on this yet?
hey haydn whats up
KRWZ,
Will this link help? It has summaries of some of the strorms. ...none for Cindy and Emily yet...I'm looking for more links.

Link
KRWZ,
Not much.....no drought here.....just me and my raisins....Today was a normal day though I feel for the people in the drought area. My sister is in this area. I'm going to have to call her and see how things are going.
Here's another report link. I think it's more official. The Katrina report is 42 pages. Some may disagree with the first landfall. Since I don't have access to the data, I have no opinion at this moment.

link
I think we have found the replacement for the Energizer Bunny . Looks like crap but it is trying to hold on to all that it can, still turning.
haydn TX need some rain what give tx some rian any hurricane out there for tx so tx can have some rain i think 10 to 20 inc of rain would do it
How about the persitance in these late season storms, kind of amazing. I think it would be worth the money to get out there and find out why.
It is amazing.
Or if patterns of late season storms mean something for the following season. What was the season after Alice #2 like? anyone know.
Texas isn't the only area that needs rain. The whole midwest needs rain.

Progressivepulse, I'd like to know about the storms too. Storms should not persist in high shear and low sst. NOw before Alberto comes there will be time to figure that out.
Found Something

The 1955 Atlantic hurricane season was an ongoing event in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone formation. It officially began on June 1, and ended on November 30.

The 1955 season was a fairly active one, with twelve tropical storms forming.

Three hurricanes hit North Carolina in 1955: Connie, Diane and Ione. Hurricane Connie swamped the Outer Banks and Hurricane Diane caused millions of dollars in damages.

Hurricane Janet struck Belize as a Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Beach erosion was severe, hundreds were killed, and dozens of oceanfront homes were completely destroyed. Janet had a recorded minimum central pressure of 914 millibars, making Janet one of the most intense storms on record in the Atlantic.

That was the season after Alice.
There were 12 more storms. NC had three hits and Cat 5 Janet hit the Yucatan at that intensity. To some not a good season. All this stuff can be found at Wikipedia. The other option is to do a google search and look for links. If you have multiple windows open, you can post on the blog and be searching for stuff st the same time. Many times I answer my questions without posting.

what all give tx 30 to 40inc of rian do you think they would like to have that?
I think that would flood them KRWZ, dry ground and lots of rain are not good bedfellows.
KRWZ,

Are you affected by the drought? I know others on this blog are. IN the SE there is a greater chance of relief from a tropical system than in other areas. Last year the only rain for a few months was from the hurricanes that hit Fl. Good for us. Bad for them. Hope it doesn't happen like that again.
not at once....too much erosion
Progressivepulse,

I noticed we posted at the same time with the same info. What are the odds of that? Are you in an area of drought conditions?
made my frist post
haydn no i live in ca where we got a lot of rain that tx needs but they are not get it
Hope everyone has a good day tmorrow. Here it's midnight. If I happen to wake at 4 I'll check on Zeta. My prediction when I wake is a depression. I'll see if it verifies later on. Goodnight.
Hey David, send some over to central Florida please :)
from the context I assumed you were in CA. Have a good day tomorrow. I'm in SC.
Have a good night hadyn
one final comment.....hm....maybe Zeta will come and strike central Fl...
I am in West Palm, FL haydn. Plentiful rain here when needed. We are in our dry season now, mid to upper 70's everyday, 50 to 60 at night, "perfect". Exept for this weekend, supposed to be in the 30's. BREAK OUT THE MOON BOOTS.
Hiya atmos, good to see ya.
Hey Progressive, great to see you too :)

Haydn, I would welcome it with open arms if it stayed at its current strength. We are 4" behind this season.
P.S.S. I agree. Last comment for sure or I'll spend another two hours on this blog. It's going to track NW, get sheared apart, and when I get up...poof....2005 is history.
Weird hurricane question: If Zeta split into 2 storms would we have
a) 2 Zetas
b) Zeta & Eta
c) Zeta & Alberto
d) a situation nobody ever thought of before

Is there any information on hurricanes splitting in two? At one point the forecast for Delta (as I recall) mentioned that as a possibilty & I remember hearing many years ago that the Stormfury criteria were so strict because many years before that a seeded hurricane split in 2 & one part hit land.

Looks like Zeta is trying to develop a little convection on the NW side for a change. In any case, I think the coming mid-level shear will kill it dead in a day.
If Zeta spawned a second storm it would be named Alberto, as it will form in 2006 and take the first name on the 2006 list. There have been instances where tropical cyclones have split. The NHC can help you with that (FAQ) or you could try Wikipedia.
haydn no do not give the Z storm to fl give the Z storm to tx now that where they need it the mosts
Yeah David they do. I was only joking as it would be a "minor inconvenience" if it were to hit central Florida, although we would welcome the rain as well. But hopefully a big trof will drop down next week and bring some much needed moisture to the plains.
hey atmosweather
Hey David, good to see you :)
have you see you no oh today
hey atmosweather yes it is and for the frist time in a week we had no rain but this will not last long

her is soem new news that may be you can hlep me with

ANOTHER WAVE PROGGED TO BRUSH THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN GFS BUILDS WEAK RIDGING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY.
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE STRONG ZONAL POLAR JET
TRAVERSING THE PACIFIC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS
HOWEVER QUICKLY BECOME OUT OF PHASE WITH TIMING OF FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVES NEXT WEEK. POLAR JET POSITION WILL DETERMINE IF NORCAL
RECEIVES A SERIES OF GLANCING BLOWS FROM SHORT WAVES OR MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.



then her this one


HOWEVER IT DOES APPEAR THE JET IS STRENGTHENING
ONCE AGAIN OVER EASTERN CHINA AND THE WEST PAC...SO WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF WE RETURN TO A WET PATTERN AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

so look like we may get bback in to it
well atmosweather drop we a e mail on my post that i did then when i can i will get back to you i got to get some sleep now
Hey David, good to see you :)
Have a good night David, will email you now
hey atmos, KRWZ or anyone else on night shift?
Zeta looks bad. The convection is dying - but a little bit of convection has wrapped around to the west side. This seems quite odd.
Zeta is still a tropical storm according to the 4AM advisory. I can't believe they didn't downgrade it. On the other hand, it has looked worse - a lot worse - before & come back. Guess we shouldn't give up quite yet - but I'm not optimistic.
Hey Snowboy.......
You should check out my blog that I got going about global warming. I gotta say I am getting a bit of flak from some people. I don't know.....just seems like alot of weather "anomolies" in recent years.Ice caps melting at record paces, Earth's temperature rising.Sounds alot like global warming to me. BUT..... this is my opinion. I got alot of links,"facts" that I have found. This one is particularly interesting....
http://www.worldviewofglobalwarming.org/index.html
Take a look at the glacier before & after pics. Look at the last set on the bottom. Man.....that glacier & ice looks like a lake now. Another little tidbit I saw in the Miami Herald today was that 2 huge icebergs had broken off from Antartica & were adrift off the South American coast.
One of the biggest ongoing points in my blog is.... our we causing it or is this a natural cycle.My opinion is we are causing it.This issue to ME is the biggest concern we have as human beings. Not as country's, religions,races & such.
C'mon people we are supposed to be in the new millenium....
We are still using fossil fuels.. this is absurd to say the least. I would like to see energy take the leaps & bounds that technology has taken in the past 10-20 years.

To me solar is the one that makes most sense.
I'd put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don't have to wait 'til oil and coal run out before we tackle that."
Thomas Edison (18471931)

Thomas Edison had the right idea long time ago.
I realize solar is not viable in all places. There are other types of alternatives for these places.
I still say we are starting to see the very 1st signs of what is to come for us.
112. dcw
They didn't downgrade it based on QuickScat...wtf is going on with this storm??
113. Oxfat
Fshhead,

The problem with alternate energy sources such as solar and wind is that they can only be supplemental. On rainy days and calm days, people still need power. So we still need base capacity to meet peoples needs when conditions arent right for sun/wind power. The alternate sources then are add-ons to a complete power system rather than replacements to conventional power generation. This is okay to a certain extent.

Cycling the large conventional power plants (nuclear and coal) adds wear and tear. They are designed to run consistently at 100% power. Additionally, if you cycle them completely offline, it takes time to bring them back up. You cant just flip a switch.

Moving to solar/wind will be gradual, and never be a complete replacement for conventionally produced power. It is worth pursuing, but it should not be billed as this great, wonderful solution to our energy problems.
Hey all... How is everyone?

My email seems to not be working
Weatherdude - If you are out there. I have been trying to email ya! Email is not working!!
Zeta downgraded for the 10AM, and with good reason. To quote the NHC in reference to myself: "this will be the final advisory...part deux...on the system".
Hey 21. How's it goin? Gonna be a cold weekend for us it seems. Had hoped to take boat out to beach on Saturday for the Mardi Gras King Cake party at the boardwalk. Brrrr. Think it will be too cold will have to drive.
Hey G-breeze! It's going good here, how about you? I didn't even know they were having that at the boardwalk.. Definately too cold for a boat!!!
Yes 21, kick off to Mardi Gras season at Bamboo Willie's. Krewe of Nereids. I am so glad we are back to some sense of normalcy around here since Ivan put an end to last year's celebration!
Yeah, you're right about that!
Hey 21! and hello to everyone else
122. Inyo
with all the talk about 'climate change' i have to kind of laugh at people who say it isnt happening. The climate has never been stable in the history of the earth. We've had numerous ice ages, droughts, heat waves, etc, and even in the last 1000 years there have been strong fluxuations (the 'little ice age' and in california at least, some very long term droughts and wet periods). In fact, if anything, the climate has been relatively stable lately.

Now, we don't know to what extent we affect it, or whether or not we are the cause for the recent warming. We do know it is changing. I take all that 'global warming is a conspiracy by evil Europe to ruin us' stuff to be complete nonsense. however, it certainly isnt a clear case, either. It will be interesting to see what happens. I myself think it is entering a period of more rapid change, and that we do have some effect on it.

As for the fuels, some people are saying solar and wind power can only complement 'conventional' fuels. At this time, that is true. However, it is silly to claim that solar power can 'never' be our mainstay, and that we won't find other replacements for coal or nuclear. Who knows what technology will bring. As for 'where do you get power when its cloudy'... if you notice, its never cloudy everywhere, and we have an integrated power grid in this country. also, batteries.
Hey Dude!
Hey 21!!! I figured you were really busy this morning. :-) Did not know about the email thing till now.
Us Central Florida folks are not used to this:

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL REACH CENTRAL FLORIDA
TONIGHT...WITH AIR TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THESE TEMPERATURES...COMBINED WITH 10 MPH WINDS...WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S AFTER 1 AM...WITH MINIMUM WIND CHILLS REACHING THE UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY.

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND WINDS NEAR ORABOVE 10 MPH WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILLRESULT IN VERY UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS FOR THOSE NOT USE TO THECOLD OR ANYONE REMAINING OUTDOORS FOR LONG PERIODS OF TIME IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS TONIGHT...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND GLOVES. BRING PETS INSIDE OVERNIGHT.
ohhh... Did you try to email me? I tried to send you a few but they took forever to load... I think it's messed up.
Yeah...I sent one this morning and I think mine took a while to send as well.
I didn't get it... Try to send one in a little while... I'm archiving files.. Be back in a little bit!

:-)
OK..I sure will :-)
Email didnt work :-(
I sent a question about the email to who ever is responsible for it....hope to hear something soon.
See ya Zeta. Or are you playing hide and go seek?

Looks like we have more stormy weather on the way according to what you posted eh 88889?
To think that I actually used to live in this stuff...yuckLink
in relationship to the dustbowl era of 1931 to the number of hurricanes that formed in the same year is a 21 named storms 10 of which was hurricane strenght. What do you think the possiblity that this is the same pattern of weather. Put
135. Oxfat
Inyo,

. if you notice, its never cloudy everywhere, and we have an integrated power grid in this country. also, batteries.

Battery backup for the power grid is totally unworkable. Wherever you heard this from, they are not giving you good information. The amount of power that we use is so great that it can only be provided by large generators running 24 hours a day. The integrated grid idea is correct only to a point. It is not feasible to send power over long distances. Your bill may show you are buying power from a long ways away, but in reality your local generator is supplying it, and monetary transactions cascade back from region to region to the company you bought it from.

And I think people underestimate how much land area would need to be dedicated to solar generators if we were to build on the assumption that we would make up for cloudy areas by transmitting power from sunny areas. That means that we would have to have generators everywhere just to ensure that we were catching the sun as it was available.

that 'global warming is a conspiracy by evil Europe to ruin us' stuff to be complete nonsense

I mostly agree with you. Europeans use the global warming as a political tool against us, as one would expect. It is not a conspiracy, however political leaders have used issues like this to maintain their political base for much longer than Ive been alive (not inconsiderable, as my body reminds me). By making one country look bad, you solidify your strength. The people Ive met in Europe (a limited sample, Ill admit) are very nice, just trying to make a living and enjoying their families. The discord originates with those who try to sway public opinion to match their own agendas.
136. Oxfat
Inyo,

. if you notice, its never cloudy everywhere, and we have an integrated power grid in this country. also, batteries.

Battery backup for the power grid is totally unworkable. Wherever you heard this from, they are not giving you good information. The amount of power that we use is so great that it can only be provided by large generators running 24 hours a day. The integrated grid idea is correct only to a point. It is not feasible to send power over long distances. Your bill may show you are buying power from a long ways away, but in reality your local generator is supplying it, and monetary transactions cascade back from region to region to the company you bought it from.

And I think people underestimate how much land area would need to be dedicated to solar generators if we were to build on the assumption that we would make up for cloudy areas by transmitting power from sunny areas. That means that we would have to have generators everywhere just to ensure that we were catching the sun as it was available.

that 'global warming is a conspiracy by evil Europe to ruin us' stuff to be complete nonsense

I mostly agree with you. Europeans use the global warming as a political tool against us, as one would expect. It is not a conspiracy, however political leaders have used issues like this to maintain their political base for much longer than Ive been alive (not inconsiderable, as my body reminds me). By making one country look bad, you solidify your strength. The people Ive met in Europe (a limited sample, Ill admit) are very nice, just trying to make a living and enjoying their families. The discord originates with those who try to sway public opinion to match their own agendas.
Goodbye Zeta. What a way to end the season!
138. Inyo
i'm gonna respond even though this is an old blog.

Battery backup for the power grid is totally unworkable. Wherever you heard this from, they are not giving you good information.

what about 'wet batteries' IE pumping water up a hill in the daytime and using it at night? It's far from a solution to the whole thing but there are other methods than just big piles of chemical batteries.

And I think people underestimate how much land area would need to be dedicated to solar generators if we were to build on the assumption that we would make up for cloudy areas by transmitting power from sunny areas.

very true.. but think of the massive amount of space - thousands of square MILES - worth of south-facing rooftop in Los Angeles, San Diego, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Albequerque, Salt Lake City, other areas with relatively sunny climates. I am not saying solar power can ever be the entire source but if technology brings up the efficiency of the stuff, we have a LOT of space to use without using up farmland or wild areas.

Europeans use the global warming as a political tool against us, as one would expect.

hmm, perhaps they do, I am no expert on European politics. However, i would say to some extent, they have reason to be angry. If China were doing something that many scientists thought could lead to our entire west coast being uninhabitable, i think we might 'conspire' against China too. The fact is that we are by far the largest producer of CO2, and if human-caused greenhouse warming occurs, it will affect the poor more than the rich - and also could have very extreme effects on europe if the Gulf Stream gets messed up (yes i know that this is only a theory and isnt likely to happen... but you are talking about ice ages and stuff here.. serious stuff).

I admit i am not an expert on power generation and furthermore, that solar power isn't going to 'save' us from fossil fuels any time soon. It does seem like it has a lot more potential than some people make it out to have, though
139. F5
China is doing just that. That was and is a major problem with the Kyoto protocol. It punished the US and other developed countries while doing nothing for two MAJOR polluters in China and India. The only thing it would have done is wrecked our economy, which is what you are starting to see in Western Europe where they adopted the treaty.

Is there global warming? On a short-term, the best answer is "maybe". Again, you have to question the reliability of older data when comparing it to current data. However, even assuming that it is occurring, how much effect is due to man and how much is due to natural factors that are out of our control, such as solar activity, natural oscillations in sea-surface temps such as ENSO, North Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation, and other trends anomolies that may not have even been discovered yet. That's at the heart of the issue for those who oppose Kyoto that are not part of industry lobbying (they have their own agenda of course). How can you proscribe certain levels of emissions which can only be obtained by putting a huge throttle on the US economy for something which is at best an unproven theory?

Now, none of this should preclude research and investment into both cleaning the emissions of our current energy production and into alternative energy sources. But, you probably won't find that many people interested in putting their money into research that isn't likely to have a big payoff.

If anything, we need to be finding ways to reduce pollution from our emissions to provide a healthier environment in the air and water as a priority over CO2 emissions IMO. That's one thing we do know the effects of, more or less.