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Yucatan Stan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:09 PM GMT on October 02, 2005

Tropical Storm Stan
Tropical Storm Stan is holding together as it moves slowly across the Yucatan Peninsula. Stan came ashore this morning as a 45-mph tropical storm just south of Cozumel Island, the same place Hurricane Emily hit earlier this season. Stan looks pretty good for a storm whose circulation is over land--some impressive spiral bands lie to the east over the Caribbean, and the upper level ouflow is good on all sides except the west. The wind shear is a low 5 knots over the storm.

Stan will have to re-organize once it pops out into the Gulf of Mexico Monday, and will have at least 36 hours or so to intensify over the warm 29 - 30C waters of the Gulf as it tracks westward towards the northeast coast of Mexico. Wind shear is expected to remain very low, under 5 knots, and Stan could be a Category 1 hurricane as it approaches the Mexican coast south of Brownsville on Tuesday. It is not certain Stan will make it ashore on Tuesday, as the ridge that is driving Stan westward is forecast to weaken. Stan may stall, loop back, or even turn northwards and threaten the U.S. later in the week. Complicating the long range forecast is the fact that most of the computer models expect a second tropical storm to form in the region by Wednesday or Thursday. The formation location varies depending upon which model one looks at, but ranges from Key West to Cedar Key to west of Jamaica to the southern Bahama Islands, or possibly the Carolina coast.

Tropical Storm Otis
Hurricane Otis is now Tropical Storm Otis, with 70 mph winds. Otis is looking like much less of a threat to Mexico and Arizona today. This is a small storm, and is expected to weaken further before it crosses the Baja Peninsula Monday, bringing at most 3 - 6 inches of rain to that region. By the time Otis makes it to northern Mexico, the storm will have dissipated, and should bring only 2 -4 inches of mostly beneficial rains to drought-starved southern Arizona.

TD 19
Tropical Depression 19 is struggling with wind shear, and is not expected to live long. It is unlikely that this storm will get a name, and instead be torn apart by wind shear within three days as it heads northward over open ocean, far from land.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbed area of weather that was 500 miles east of Trinidad and the southern Lesser Antilles Islands has diminshed, and tropical storm developement in this area is not expected. An area of clouds north of Puerto RIco is primarily due to a upper-level low, and development is not expected.

Taiwan and China
Typhoon Langwang (Chinese for Dragon King), made landfall on Taiwan at dawn Sunday as a Category 3 typhoon with 120 mph winds. Passage over the 10000 foot high mountains of Taiwan significantly weakened Longwang, which is expected to strike mainland China today as a Category 1 hurricane. Longwang did heavy damage on Taiwan, injuring at least 36 people. In a freakish double-whammy, a magnitude 5.4 earthquake hit the island as Longwang came ashore. No damage reports from the earthquake have been received yet.

My next update will be at 10pm EDT tonight.
Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Dr Masters is suggesting a 2nd tropical system my develop in the areas surrounding Florida, from Key West, eastern Gulf, southern Bahamas West of Jamaica, or as far north as the Carolinas. Looks like an interesting week for everybody if Stan goes north as well and doesn't hit the Mexican Coastline later this week.
come on TD 19 you can make it try to get the T storm ok TD 19 so we can get the V storm next ok TD 19 so come on you can make it
The latest NAM 12Z...which has run thru 48 hours develops a low just east of Florida...Miami area..then crosses it into the gulf. High pressure is still north and east of the system. Imagine it continues it west..northwest. Imagine it gets turned North/Northeast by the cold front coming east on Thursday.
duh! duh! duh! another one bites the dust (cape verde storm) Doesn't look good for TD 19
TD 19 has been laid to rest. The 11am advisory is the last one issued by the NHC unless regeneration occurs. Looks like the "T" storm will be what happens around Florida.
PS that was probaly sahara dust
you can make it TD19 do not be like TD 10 did we sould be at the V storm by now if TD 10 got you now what
Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number 8


Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on October 02, 2005



the depression consists of an ill-defined low-level cloud swirl well
to the west of decaying convection. With an environment
characterized by westerly wind shear and very dry air...there seems
little chance that the system will recover...and this will be the
last advisory unless an unexpected regeneration occurs.

Now a shallow system...the depression is moving with the low layer
flow...at 315/11. This general motion is expected until the remnant
low dissipates during the next day or so. The GFS had been alone in
forecasting the northwestward motion of a decaying system and at
this point appears to have gotten it right. The official forecast
is adjusted to follow the GFS and shallow BAM guidance.

Forecaster Franklin


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 02/1500z 17.0n 35.7w 25 kt...dissipating
12hr VT 03/0000z 18.2n 37.0w 25 kt...remnant low
24hr VT 03/1200z 20.0n 38.9w 20 kt...remnant low
36hr VT 04/0000z...dissipated



Good Morning all,
Looks like we're going to have alot to watch here next week.....
Good morning everyone....just wanted to check in....everything is coming together for an interesting couple of weeks....I would not be surprised if the USA gets hit 2 more times.....stan could very well stall and then turn north.....and the other storm is supposely popping up close by........where oh where will our next storm be.....I heard shes somewhere at sea.....lookout oh US OF A......cause Tammi wants to come out and play........not bad for an amateur.......
13. IKE
Stan...the man...hitting the Yucatan!

According to the latest NAM...which I know isn't the most reliable..in 3 days a significant low/Tammy? will be south of the Florida panhandle. With a trough/cold front coming southeast, this looks like a north/northeast Gulf storm is possible.
Ughhh....please don't say that IKE. Alabama coast has been dodging bullets since Ivan.....I'd love to keep it that way.
what if the TD19 dos make it to the T storm frist and then we would have the V storm ad then we will have the W storm then we are done and this would be the frist that we got to W
16. IKE
Not me saying it..BamaMom. Just looking at models...er...computer models. The latest GFS...which ran earlier is kind of picking up on a similar scenario.

You should be happy...your Tide killed the Gators!
18. IKE
My prediction...this year WILL make it thru the entire alphabet. Greek names to follow.
19. dcw
Agreed, Ike. I don't think it's even possible to have fewer than 4 storms for the rest of the year.
anyone have more information on what's supposed to pop up near the Bahamas?
2nd day of October and we are at "S" name and we may have the "T" name this week. We will go thru the NHC alphabet and get into at least Tropical Storm Beta by end of November.
I'm waiting for what the NHC says about that area east of Bahamas
This Floridian is going to keep a very close eye on the tropics for the next few days - models cooking up some very ominious scenarios.

I know most here are tired of hearing about the Katrina emergency management fiasco, but here is a new twist from the NY Times (registration required):

Stumbling Storm-Aid Effort Put Tons of Ice on Trips to Nowhere


Link

Here is my Favorite Part:
"Some people, including Michael D. Brown, the former FEMA director, have questioned why the agency spends so much money moving ice.

"I feebly attempted to get FEMA out of the business of ice," Mr. Brown told a House panel this week. "I don't think that's a federal government responsibility to provide ice to keep my hamburger meat in my freezer or refrigerator fresh."

Hah! Here is a guy that has no idea what it is like to live through the aftermath of a hurricane. Sweltering in the steaming tropical subsidence left in the wake of a hurricane, deprived of electrical power for days or weeks, ice is a huge comfort for most, and a lifesaver for the frail, elderly and those needing to keep their insulin cold.

Hamburger meat, indeed! I am glad Mr. Brownie has gone back to whatever Arabian horse-hole he crawled out from. Bye Bye Brownie!!

Sorry for the rant, but I found that idiotic statement to be so ignorant I just had to get it off of my chest.
3 more to go be for we get to the A storm wow back to A
Oh for a crystal ball!! Carolinas to Jamaica is a pretty big area. The hard part when they form so close is that by the time you know if it is coming you don't have a lot of time before landfall.
The NHC now says that the broad (Tammy?) area of showers and thunderstorms east of the Bahamas is still currently in an unfavorable upper level enivorment by may become more favorable for development in the next couple of days.
27. IKE
Hope the NAM doesn't hold true. Tammy in the gulf as a significant storm in 84 hours. With a blast of chilly air coming down from the plains and heading east...ugh. Not a good scenario. Looks like rain for Florida and here where I'm at in the panhandle. Think I'll keep an eye on it...plus the fact my other halfs name is TAMMY!
Why can't they at least finish it out with Xavier-Yvonne-Zachary or something like that before starting in on the Greeks?
so when was the last time we got to W dos any one no if we will get to W next year to or not any one no this one let me no ok all
30. IKE
When the NHC says...may become MORE favorable...usually it isn't good. They know something...obviously.
They may have to rethink their lists after this hurricane center if we go to 22 or more named storms
32. IKE
Don't think there are enough X..Y...or Z names or the NHC doesn't think so.
Sorry they said conductive for development rather than favorable. Is there a difference?
they got X Y an Z for EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC like xina York and Zelda can they put it for the ATLANTIC to let me no on this one
Yeah, Im with you HECKER....how often do we get that far anyways......I think they havent much experience getting this far.....How many times have we gotten to the X Y Z names......maybe twice......they do need to use these letters....the rarity is a nasty coincidence.....theres Xena Ying-ling and Zorro......lol....hey, dont laugh the taiwanese just got hit by LONGWANG.......Headline....LONGWANG destroys all of Taiwans infrastructure..........LOL........wow.......
How many times are we going to get to xyz storms, it may never happen again in our lifetime. This is truly an amazing season only once in 150 years has there ever been 21 storms, and that was in 1933
Matilda: could you provide the link your talking about. I can't seem to find this on teh NHC site. Thanks!
39. IKE
Conducive..per wordweb..."Tending to bring about"....in plain English...TAMMY......
Yes DCW, Katrina did. I shouldn't have said "coast". We live about 100 miles north of Gulf Shores but Ivan still did a number on my little town. Katrina didn't do a thing this far inland thank goodness. Ivan was the worst hurricane I've been thru in all of my 40 years. After that 1 and the destruction of Katrina and Rita, if someone says "evacuate"...I'm gone yesterday.
I don't know how clearly names like Xavier and Yvonne would come across the radio on a boat, etc.
I can't wait to get to the greek names. There's something ominous sounding about "Hurricane Alpha."
The NHC outlook goes on quicker on the Miami National weather Office under Tropical weather on the left hand side of the screen
43. IKE
Per the latest NHC tropical weather outlook..."A broad area of showers and thunderstorms...associated with a
westward-moving tropical wave and an upper-level low...is centered
a few hundred miles east of the central Bahamas. Although
upper-level winds are currently unfavorable for tropical cyclone
development...they could become more conducive over the next few
days as this system moves westward."
BlueWatch i am with you i can not wait to get to Hurricane Alpha." too and i can not wait to get to the W too
ok....everyone in gator land dont get mad.......but what would happen if stan and tammi got together......hmmmmmmm..............URBAN..........a new baby storm.........lol
I've tried to pull up some of the links that ya'll have posted but have no luck in getting them to load. Any suggestions as to why?
THanks. Thought I was going loopy. I don't understand why everyone else posts their updates before NHC. I usually look at the sun-sentinel posts of NHC and they are always earlier than the actual NHC site. Very strange. lol
we've nevver gotten to V or W
in 1933, there were no names
I still don't know how to link
BlueWatch - "Hurricane Alpha" does sound scary, on more than one level. Most frightening of all, however, is "Hurricane Omega"

(please note: feeble attempt at humor)
Hey coconut....that link isnt really the OFFICIAL site....its ran by FIU....one of them colleges....
Prayers, calculations, and good sense - the standard staple of "interesting" weeks.
BamaMom - Got Java? (installed on your computer, that is)
Yeah your right. The NHC has based their list on the number of storms that did develop in 1933 which was 21 storms and hurricanes. They don't use QUXYZ perhaps they may have to
weeeeeee this is the frist time evere that we got to V and the W storm weeeeeee that is so cool
The Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) is a component of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) located at Florida International University in Miami, Florida. The TPC mission is to save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings, forecasts and analyses of hazardous tropical weather, and by increasing understanding of these hazards. The TPC vision is to be America's calm, clear and trusted voice in the eye of the storm and, with its partners, enable communities to be safe from tropical weather threats.
They use the NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER as a front....its really the TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.......
calm, clear and trusted voice? Sounds like an infomercial
Thank god it's an independent enity from the politics of Goverment.
My sister is friends with someone who's a meteorologist there. It's kinda cool b/c I have seen some updates from him and even heard him on the radio and in the paper. The best part is that when there is something getting too close for comfort we have been able to call him to get an expert answer to our questions.
...unfortunately "Hurricane Iota" does NOT impress me at all. But there are some other cool names. Omikron. Rho. Psi.

Wow, imagine the frat hurricane parties.
A blob toga party!!!
Where???????????
Talking to me? Where = NHC
A few years ago they tried to change (mid 90s) They tried to elimanate the phrase "National Hurricane Center in favor of Tropical Prediction Center but the public had always knew it as NHC so in order not to confuse the public today they use both names. The reason they tried to change is they track all tropical systems not just hurricanes as the old name applys National Hurricane Center
or do you mean where is the blob toga party!!
BlueWatch - LOL! Actually Charlie did a number on "fraternity/sorority row" at UCF in Orlando. Looks like it spawned a small tornado there, pine trees snapped in half, roofs blown off the frat houses....
well it look like that some years that we get to this the G storm and some years we this get to the M or N storm and some years we this get to the R storm but i do not think we got that march down then that or did be for we got to the 2005 hurrican year any one no this one let me no
Man.....something is up......the atmosphere has changed here in florida....im in Orlando and its hot, windy and moist....we've already had a shower went by 30 minutes ago.....pretty strong for 11:30 in the morning..... theres a strong pressure gradient developing......something is getting its groove on whether it be stan or something else.....
Toga party...where??????
71. IKE
Looks like the east-coast of Florida is in for rain/easterly fetch...maybe some riptides. Could last a few days with Tammy? coming west.
Hmmm - lol The blob toga party; maybe within a week or two?

Think I'll break out my Kevlar toga for that one.
73. IKE
The Orlando marine discussion.."Marine...advisory conditions will continue through tonight with
east winds to near 20 kts and seas in the 5-7 feet range. Marine
conditions look to deteriorate further early next week as easterly
wave approaches and tightens gradient across the east central Florida Atlantic
waters Monday night into Tuesday. Expect gusts to around 25kt near scattered
showers this afternoon."....

Tammy? moving west.
Hi fsu...noticed how you said the weather has changed in orlando...here in jax it underwent a very noticable change yesterday around 3pm...decent onshore flow, scattered heavy showers, although brief...today as well, very tropical/damp/breezy...actually a pleasent change from the previously boring weather we had last week.
i am hoping that TD 19 will get the T storm and then the next storm will be the V storm then we go one more to go tand that is W
Yepper...........well i gots to go....I hope everyone enjoys the weather........lol........
If they are really going to do this Greek thing, how about some real names instead of just letters, e.g.

Aias-Briseis-Gordias-Demeter-Eumenides-.....-Odysseus (or is that one an omikron?)

And what happens if you have to retire a letter?
Retire a letter - ha!

"Sorry, Alpha has been retired. You will now have to refer to those as Athena Bits."

Or maybe, we'd use a different alphabet after that.
what this go in to the 2006 names
I think 8888888 just wants to yell out the words, WILLLLLLLLLLLLLLMMMMMMMMAAAAAAAA, lol.
"....Gamma waves pounding the coast..."
weatherboyfsu - echo aquak9. Live on the east coast, commute to Orlando. Been very breezy with convergence line & popcorn showers blowing in for the last three days. I think at first it was the pressure gradient between the strong high north and TD20/Stan, aided by the offshore ULL. Now, there are several "blobs" of convection a ways offshore, doing that old-time cylconic twist. It will be interesting to see which of these becomes the dominant one over the next day or two.

Considering restocking on plywood today...
aquak9 - LOL again! Think I'll opt for that lead-lined toga instead!
things changed in swfla a couple of days ago...had our hardest rains of the year in the last few days...strong tropical type downbursts...8 inches in the cape.....although we desperatley needed it...I hope it is not a pre cursor to some of the models that keep spawning a system on our doorstep..
herenu go dr.masters. somemodels form a system from the ull and here is what the nhc thinks


A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...IS CENTERED
A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT...THEY COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD
when will they do the next one for TD 19 any one no right now it is at 11am i would like to see the 2pm
Pretty amazing to think that there is yet another possibility of a storm forming. I feel sorry for the people west of us but I will surley take depressions over hurricanes here in SFL any day.
Could someone help me out with this statement from the NHC?

"LOW-LEVEL WLY FLOW IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE IN THE DEEP TROPICS FOR
EARLY OCT WITH A LOT LESS SHEAR THAN AVERAGE AS WELL."

What is normal for this time of year and what impact will it have on future development?


89. OGal
Thanks Orlando, Jax, and commuter guy, I am in Winter Springs and thought there might have been a wave move through last night. Heavy, Heavy, hard rain and wind. I agree guys something is up. How bout Terrible Tom on Channel 9. Has he said anything about impending doom???
Typically, the ITCZ shifts too far south for a circulation to form, and the jet stream shifts south, inducing more shear. The impact of less shear and the impressive westerlies menas an October like this past July, with a well-above average number of storms, is possible.
this time of year the tropical flow is usually confined to the itcz and ull and troughs dominate the area. so far this year there is a tropicaL flow all the way into the gulf. this is a late august early septem,ber period. also the shear is not to bad in alot of placesin the tropics including the atlantic. now this should lead to more storms than normal. and it has shown. we havd had 2 depressions, one of whihc is diispating td 19. and a named storm already. oct looks to be busy with the gfs blowing up atleast 3 storms in the next 12-14 days. we will have to see
Thanks tornadoty
The NHC is now making ref to the area of cold core upper level low spinning east of the Bahamas. Looks like a small center is starting to form just east of the southeast Bahamas. Does anyone else agree with me on this? I think that cold core low is starting to warm with good outflow. Let me know your thoughts on this area since I do live in S.FLA.
Thanks Lefty also.
ProgressivePulse - I think on the "shear" part of the statement: it is not unusual for the surface easterly trade winds to blow faster than the upper easterly steering flow, which has the effect of westerly shear. So they are saying the trade winds (Easterlies) are weak.

yeas sails. i just posted a comemnt to dr.masters as alot of the global models have been forming a system from it and i think a system, who knows how strong, could affect florida if this thing forms, whihc i think it will. i am more shocked at dr.masters denial on achnowledging it in his rest of the tropics statement. maybe he forgot a ull can become warmcore as this one looks to be dping. there is shear freom and ul gugh and a ull. the ull is to its north near ga, the il high is over stan. that high is suppose to move west and weaken and the ull near ga is suppose to kick ne. at that poinnt, 2-3 days from now, i suspect we will see development
how about hurricane ZOO
My opinion is that anywhere along that system a depression could form. Probably won't happen till tomorrow or tuesday but it all depends on which area decides to take control.
sails the latest gfs forms maybe 2 systems from that ull, thjough i doubt the 2 systems maybe one, but it has it do it near ga and affect no land. thats just the gfs take. the ukmet and canadian last night foprm a decent cyclone and take it across florida. new runs of those 2 be out soon.

the gfs also shows atleast 2 cyclones crossing the atlantic and enetring the carribean thru 8 days. need to wait for the rest of the model run to see where they go but the full runs last night had a landfalling cyclone in the carolinas thru 14 days
To me now it looks like the area around 22N to 25N is the dominate area, agreed? Trying to get a better feel for what I am seeing on the WV loops.
k guys redskins game on. be back later
weather looks nasty here in Ft Lauderdale...very windy, dark sky and sideways rain ..

103. code1
Great! Flying to Miami from the panhandle this afternoon and back on Thurs. Looks like I am in for a fun ride both ways. Pray for us guys!
Good luck Eagles! Also, doppler rainfall in Sept. indicates possible strike on the periphery of Rita. I called the hurricanes in La., N.C, and, La. in early July after reviewing estimates and watching how storms run around the periphery of previous deluges. So far, a lot of critics of this theory but absolutely little proof of its merit.
so how long will it take stan to get in the gulf and where is it now?
any one there??
hey i am up to 4 so far this year what see if i can get this up to 6 or 7 and last year i this got 3 wow
any one want to go out for a pizza?
Progessive - My attempt to catalog the blobs:

(Locations Approximate)
35N 70W - Small, cyclonic turning, signs of anti-cylconic outflow to N &E.
24N 75.7W Shearing under Stan outflow, slight cylconic turning, weakening convection, Probablt just upper-level diffluence.
25N 70W Under moderate westerly shear,cyclonic turning but having trouble wrapping up on west side. Signs of anti-cyclonic outflow N&E.
20N 65W A lot of convection, but pretty disorganized & "blobby" at this time. Slight N/NE shear on west side


Gentleman and gentle women, Place your bets!
guygee i would like to Place my bets on all of them starting at $100
25 70 36hrs.
My bet is on 25N 70W, take away the shear from stan which should happen in the next couple of days and watch out. Appears to have the strongest convection at this time.
My bet is on 35N 70W LOL
2570 appears to be starting to pull moisture in from 3570 amature observance.
i win
These are some rather strong storm cells coming in off the atlantic, West Palm here. Brief though.
Progressive - Tend to agree that one looks most organized at this time. I wonder, though, if already that far north, does that put Florida at less risk? Second choice is 20N 65W, but that one will take more time to organize. Could tunr into a seperate system(?) or too close?

(8888888889gg just a figure of speach, and hangman's humor at that. I won't even buy a $1 Lotto ticket :-)
For the record 25 70 is the ULL that we have been watching for days now. It was what the models brought to the GA coast a few days ago. Now seems they want to push it across FL.
I actually think it will pop a little south of 25N around 23 or 24N
i do not think that we do not have TD19 no more do we?
Some serious rain coming down on me.
Link
122. dcw
ROFL @ Gamma Waves
Current west motion would do that for sure, and I do remember on late friday, I read the update on accuweather and they said west to west southwest motion could be expected in reference to the high pressure above.
Hi all....I have been lurking for some time. I have learned alot and picked up some good links. Thanks for being so good at sharing information, special thanks to Lefty and tornadoty. Some day I may feel confident enough to post and opinion. In the mean time I will continue to look and to learn.
I tend to follow NHC though especially when they are this close to land.
StormJunkie - 36 hours until the "T" name? Seems reasonable, could be one of those "instant TS's" if the shear relaxes (lots of structure already in place). But I have trouble seeing what will push it due west or WNW into Florida like the models indicate.

Still considering the plywood errand, maybe tomorrow morning...
35N 70W - Small, cyclonic turning, signs of anti-cylconic outflow to N &E.
24N 75.7W Shearing under Stan outflow, slight cylconic turning, weakening convection, Probablt just upper-level diffluence.
25N 70W Under moderate westerly shear,cyclonic turning but having trouble wrapping up on west side. Signs of anti-cyclonic outflow N&E.
20N 65W A lot of convection, but pretty disorganized & "blobby" at this time. Slight N/NE shear on west side


Hmmm...guygee...I think I'd like to buy a vowel instead.
aquak9 - So "none of the above"?
Make sure you ask questions when you have them Missy. Best way for lurkers and amatuers like myself to learn.

Remeber that blobs/unformed storms are the hardest to predict track for. If 25 70 works out. my only confidence would be in a Miami to Outer Banks forcast, with a tendancy for central/N FL. Again, that is right now and could change at any point in the next 36hrs. At some point that storm should make a N ward turn 4 to 5 day time frame.
130. code1
CCFLA you have mail.
Not sure about T name, although it could be, I was thinking more of atleast a depression recognized by the NHC.
As soon as my house is in the "cone of uncertainty", then I know I'm safe. As long as all the models go over my coordinates 5 days out, the I know I'm safe.
Hold on, guygee, I'll be serious, I look at yourlist
24N 75.7W....25N 70W.... I think they will pick the last couple of alphabet names.
aquak9 - Please consider donating to the "Foundation for the Humor Impaired" (as I think I am a beneficiary). A good joke is a terrible thing to waste.

(i.e. I guess I would rather buy that vowel as well)
Great point about the 5 day model forcasts Aquak. I have always been a fan of if the 5 day points are over you you are safe. Usually see several model jumps between three and 5 days. It is usually the 3rd to 5th jump that is correct.
136. dcw
Gotta love technology, eh?
137. IKE
Looks like it's at 24N/ 70W. I'll choose the 25N/70W one.
What have I missed?
Yea Ike, we have not gotten down to splitting hairs on center yet. 25 70 give or take a couple of degrees N/S and E/W
does anyone think Stan the man will turn more north and hit texas?
141. IKE
I have to admit...Stan looks impressive over the Yucatan. Good outflow.

Ya'll think a Tammy might develop? It's a rather impressive wave.
I do think it is safe for NHC to take TD19 off the floater now, lol. I would like to see them put this area of concern on.
hey sj. hey guys. only here for a second. skins whipping that seahawk butt lol
Are we talking about Blobby III north of Puerto Rico? There is also a very impressive wave coming off of Africa. I wonder if it will meet the same fate of TD 19.
145. IKE
Yup. Blobby the 3rd?
Also, Stan looks like its strenghthening over the Yucatan. Is it just me?
Anyone watch the ND , PURDUE game last night. Impressive ND offense. ND USC in 2 weeks could be the highest scoring game ever given the 2 defenses and the power of the offense.
148. IKE
I agree. Stan does look healthier.
Blobby- Rita
Blobby Jr.- Stan
Blobby III- System N of PR
I gave up football after I DVR'd that game last night so I could watch it when I got home for the wedding. Watched the whole game in fast forward. Lucky I did not tear my room apart watching that disgrace. Looked like a bunch of 2yr olds trying to play ball. We should not have even showed up for that game.
151. IKE
Blobby III..
152. IKE
Stormjunkie...you must be a Gator fan? or South Carolina?
IKE - Agree with StormJunkie hard to pinpoint yet, but in the latest visible I can see the "25N/70W" starting to pull some north winds at the surface below 25N. Stuff is popping and blowing around in that area pretty fast. Anyone have any good links to ship reports in that area?
Not the ND game. Talking about the Auburn game. I won't even refer to the other team that was there for a little while. Although as a fan I am used to dealing with that crap. Seen it for years.
My last post should clarify that IKE.lol.
156. IKE
It looks like it's getting sheared slightly at 25/70 but it is definitely a circulation there...moving west. I guess the shear is expected to relax. The Nam develops it and the GFS is not as aggressive...but the GFS didn't pick-up Stan either....not early anyway.
Where is floater 2 now? Is it going to end up over the 25 70 area?
158. dcw
Hmm. So what do you guys think, will Blobby III become Tammy?
If it does I would be worried, dcw, the girls have gone nuts this year.
Floater 2 is still on dead 19, they said they were going to stop reporting so chances are they will take it off soon.
161. dcw
Indeed, especially considering I live in central FL.
162. IKE
It has been a bad year for the females........
Hi y'all.
Is it just me fabulating, or is Stan really moving N/NW now? If so, that is certainly not what the official predictions indicate should happen. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the overall motion of the system such in the last 3-4 frames i the link below?

Link
Dcw, my grandparents live in Ocala. Where do you live?
165. IKE
Indeed here too..especially since I'm in the panhandle of Florida; Like someone else said..think it gets dawn North by Friday.
Well, they do say women are the stronger sex :)
My understanding is the the larger scale models like the GFS and the GFDL do not handle undeveloped storms well.
168. IKE
Stan looks like it's moving west-northwest to me.
Going from memory, but I do belive the Bamms are semi reliable in the early stages also.
It looks like it's moving a LITTLE bit more N of W, but not NNW or NW by any means.
olefosse - I see the original center pretty much still scooting west just above 20N about midway across the Yucatan Peninsula, but it really doesn't look much a "center of circulation" anymore. Convection has really expanded towards the north, so I wouldn't be shocked if a new center reforms N or NW of the Yucatan. If that happens it would throw the current models out of whack.
I just got finished making my latest obs on Stan. It appears to me that the trof over Missouri, extending ssw into the nw Gulf is in no hurry to pull out. Also the wv loops indicate to me that the upper air flow in the sw gulf is from the sw towardes the north central gulf coast. I now have to go out on a limb with this next obs because the bouys in the gulf that I count on for pressure obs are out of service. With all that said, I don't think this ridge building to the north of Stan is occurring, nor is this high pressure going to be that strong. The entire gulf is becoming loaded with moisture, the most I've observed in weeks, besides the named systems. I just don't believe that NHC has a handle on Stan yet. Stan also appears to be moving wnw or nearly nw at 310 degrees.
Thanks StormJunkie, I will...on the side,Missy
lefty420 thanks so much for you thoughts on this suspect area east of the SE Bahamas. I really enjoy your passion for weather. I, with my partner own and operate a weather reporting service called Iwindsurf.com. Take a look at the site it is pretty cool. I am a avid windsurfer, have been thoughout the Caribbean windsurfing and I a love to track storms. We offer our service to boaters, windsurfers, dive companies, Brian Norcross Channel 4 Weather in Miami, the National Hurricane Service Jim Lushine has also used our data. We install, operate, and maintain all of our sensors. Our slogan is: the don't come down until they blow down! We lost four sensors last year. None this year so far. Write me back, it was good hearing from you. Check our our site! Thanks
nice site, sails1.
I can't help it but the last several frames of the sat loop really show a expanding area of distrubed weather north of PR and Dominincan Rep. Unbelieveable! It is expanding indicating that the strong area of HP north of this area is building in! One draw back is the southeast shear cutting like a knife thru the SW corner of the developing low. I am thinking that the pressures should be starting to lower maybe I am wrong but it sure looks suspect! I will not be surprise if the NHC don't start to make mention of a systems starting to develp by the 5pm advisory. Upper level winds not too great for devop but are getting better. Keep your eyes on this one, if the thunderstorms and actvity doen't dye off at night.
thanks AM....what are your thoughts on the area on and to the north of PR?
The NHC mentioned it in the last two advisories sails. The first said devlopment unlikely due to shear and the most recent said shear should reduce over the next day or two and devlopment could occur then. I would expect a similar statement at 5:00.
stormjunkie....it appears to me that the NHC may be somewhat conservative on their assessment of this area. What do you think?
Yes and it if it does develop it is heading straight for florida weather it develops or not....
Jed, we are 4 to 6 days out from that, and although FL appears to be the target area, I would not be suprised by a more northerly track, or a approach to the coast with a turn out to sea.

The NHC always seems to be a little conservative with systems forming, but they did mention it which is saying something.
well it look like that TD 19 did not make it it may come back or it may not come back so we will see on that so when could we see TD 21?
is TS stan back overe the water yet?
184. IKE
Per the afternoon Key West discussion..."The next weather maker will be the trough over the Bahamas. The models
differ on how they handle it...with NAM bringing a closed low across
southern Florida on Tuesday...and spinning it up into a hurricane in the
central Gulf on Thursday. GFS/UKMET/ecmf are much less aggressive
with the feature and only bring an open wave at the surface across
southern Florida on Tuesday...but they do generate a tropical cyclone in the
central Gulf by Thursday."

ALL generate a tropical cyclone. Interesting...with a cold front coming in from the west. Ugh....
boy has soon as i come on her it LOL what up with but when i am not on her there is a lot of you on her what up with too and where did evere one go? any one for a pizza?
Is Stan the system that some models are showing hitting the Baja in about a week?
Just had pizza 8888. Thanks though.
NWS out Miami in its discussion says that South Florida is in for a potentialy very wet week. The northern edge of a tropical wave will move thru tonight A low may form in the vicinity of Keys, or eastern gulf for Tuesday and Wednesday and they mention that one model suggests several distubances will move out of the NW Carribean late in the week ahead of a trough toward S Florida but it is to early to worry about that until there is some consistantly with the model. Tuesday and Wednesday looks to be the wetest at this time
This wave moving across S Florida must not be the ULL that we have been watching. I just do not see the ULL area moving across S FL. Just my take. Not sure what this wave is though and moving through tonight?
What we have been looking at ULL for the past week is now the at 25/70 The wave the NWS is talking about has been going west but just behind Stan I think Accuweather has shown the tropical wave on one their graphics separate from 25/70
Got ya Matilda. That is what has been confusing me as I would think the ULL would take a more northerly path. Just my take and most likely wrong.
I guess this wave has been underneath our radar as we have been focusing on Stan. We sure have been having squally weather in South Florida since last night enhanced by the wave and moving swiftly to the west by the High to our north
Jumping in . Waving meekly (yeah, right) from good ol Middleburg Fl. I'm Bren and I've been following these blogs ever since Bob (Weatherguy03) told me about them. Waving to Bob. Be nice to my daughter! I'm a wannabe weather guesser, I suppose. Hurricane season fascinates me and IMO there is nothing better than a good thunderstorm. Since I've been lurking here, I've started coming to this site before I check out TWC, NOAA, Intellicast and a couple of other Hurricane sites I have in my favorite places. Y'all are really interesting and although I don't know even a fraction of what some of you know about the weather systems, I hope you don't mind if I sit here in the back of the bus and watch the show from time to time. I feel like a voyeur, that's why I thought I'd do a quick intro.
Welcome Cappu.
my blog is updated

**Did Stan reform near the tip of the Yucutan??**
StanLink he'll probably be in the gulf in an hour or so...
just had a pretty viscious thunderstorm roll off the Atlantic and move across our island (see radar for zip code 31522) Before that a strange hot day here, temp up to 87. Strange to have the temps so far above normal with a ENE flow off the water, but the water here is still 83. With the ridge so far to the north, it would be ideal for something to form and head west into the GA coast. Today is the 107th anniversary of the last major hurricane to hit the GA coast, a 938 mb hurricane on the south GA coast which brought its northern (right) eyewall across St. Simons and caused a storm surge 18 feet above normal high tide. The weather for the week prior to that hurricane was similar to now--steady ENE winds, showery, warmer than normal.
Sails, that PR system does look impressive
extract from this afternoon's Charleston, SC discussion:

.LONG TERM /WED THROUGH SUN/...AN INTERESTING YET COMPLICATED MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD IS IN STORE WITH THIS PACKAGE. THE MODEL SUITE OFFERS A
PLETHORA OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS...ALL VASTLY DIFFERENT FROM EACH
OTHER AND WITH SIGNIFICANT FORECAST IMPLICATIONS. THE THINKING FOR
WED THROUGH THU IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE LAST FEW DAYS. SHOULD
HAVE THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA AND AN INVERTED
TROUGH STRETCHING SW-NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SC/GA COASTS SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE HEAVY PRECIP RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. CLOUDS WILL
BE ABUNDANT...AND WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST
WITH A PRETTY SHARP DECREASE AS ONE MOVES INLAND.

THE FRI THROUGH SUN PERIOD IS WHERE THE REAL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FRIDAY...WITH
A STRONG COLD FRONT TREKKING INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY
SATURDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/DGEX/NOGAPS/UKMET ALL...TO SOME
DEGREE...DEVELOP A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT FRI OR SAT. THE CANADIAN IS
BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A MONSTROUS SUBTROPICAL LOW SPINNING
UP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY. THE OTHERS EITHER DEVELOP A
DISCRETE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE PERIOD OR BRING SOMETHING
OF A TROPICAL ORIGIN ACROSS FL UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THAT
PERIOD. WITH THIS PACKAGE...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE FRONT STALLING JUST
OFFSHORE BUT WITH DECENT COASTAL CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN
ESSENCE...THE FCST WILL BE PRETTY SIMILAR TO THE EARLIER PART WITH
THE HIGHEST POP AND CLOUD COVER RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
WATERS.
&&

.MARINE...WINDS NORTHEAST AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 5
TO 8 FEET IN OUR COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT NEARLY STEADY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE PERIODS WHERE THE GRADIENT
PINCHES OFF THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN IS
UNCERTAIN.

WINDS IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING SO THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE DROPPED IN A FEW HOURS...BUT
WILL LEAVE IN EFFECT FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO
HEADLINES.

RATHER UNSETTLED MARINE ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE
WITH A PERSISTENT INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH FROM WED THROUGH FRI.
WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN
A POSSIBLE WAVE MOVES UP THE COAST. DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHEN
TRENDS START TO DEVELOP...WINDS AND SEAS MAY NEED TO BE DRASTICALLY
INCREASED FOR THE WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT WILL ATTEMPT TO SHOW THE
GENERAL TREND AND LINE UP WITH NEIGHBORS.
I discovered this blog just before Katrina and it is a wonderful source of information and ideas that is shared by everybody. You can bet that if a tropical system is developing it was already talked about days before the NWS, NHC, or TWC has even mention it. Case in point Rita, We all knew something was going to develop as it was known as the BLOB NE of PUERTO RICO days before. Welcome!
The GFS takes our bahama system into the Gulf and brings it as far as 90 W by Wed night and has it as a hurricane Thursday (others have it more as a hybrid) Since New Orleans is at 90 W they could potentially get affected--as Rita showed, it doesnt take a direct impact or a very strong surge anymore to break through the levees there.
my 'gut' tells me that the system will not go that far west, but really--the last thing New Orleans needs!
The NHC outlook at 5:30 is the exact thing they said at 11:30am about our system east of Bahamas
just looked St. SImons...impressive
One good thing, the major rivers in GA are all at their lowest levels of the year--so that should keep river flooding down if a system heads this way.
206. IKE
The latest NAM 18Z model spins up an impressive storm in the eastern gulf in 84 hours and deepens it significantly compared to the 12Z run...

Hurricane Tammy? In the gulf?
The Canadian is as strong--but makes it a hybrid system.
Just a tidbit of info... Hurricane Tanya, the only "T" storm ever formed on October 27 th...It is only October 2nd.
hybrid meaning subtropical right?
was that in 1995
yup
Sebastien, also in 1995, the 1st "S" storm formed on October 21st, compared to stan, which formed on october 2nd.
I was looking at the analog for that year the other day and you can see the same trough in the NE US and it protected us from all those hurricanes that year. They all looked perfect in their curve asthe went around the mid Atlantic high pressure by about 500 miles apart I think there was 5 systems
yes hybrid = subtropical sorry.
why all the conversation about where Stan is going? Isnt it obvious? I mean cmon people - you cant WILL a storm into falling along your PREFERED forcast track - I said late last week "Cat 1 SW Gulf late monday early tuesday moving almost DUE west into mexico" -- and was blasted - its become more than just a little evident that Stan will not even come close to Brownsville and have no affect at all on the U.S.
216. IKE
Latest Mobile, Al. marine discussion..."Marine...deep east->ne wind flow will endure through late Wednesday.
Anticipated surface low should develop over Bahamas Monday and move westward
into eastern Gulf of Mexico by midday Tuesday. As a result...wind flow will become
more northeasterly with respect to/time (i.E., Through tue). ETA model and GFS both agree surface
low will develop and are close in their positions of feature over
time. Of course...models change...so stay tuned. Depending on exact
track and magnitude of surface low...marine winds could be near gale
force...or remain solidly in the small craft range. Towards the end
of period...approaching cold front from northwest...causes most significant
frontal passage since late last Spring. Usually...magnitude
decreases as event nears. Winds will remain closer to small craft
exercise caution in Mobile Bay through late Monday"

A storm/possibly tropical storm or hurricane, then a surge of cooler air.
None of my posts have been about Stan today--talking about a possible future Tammy.
houstonian you were right then and you are right now.
Ike
Next week will be very interesting for the northern, and eastern Gulf, Florida, and the rest of SE coast of the US.
Of course Stan in the SW Gulf as well.
The only interest I have in Stan is whether or not he becomes a hurricane--if he does it will help towards setting a new record for hurricanes in a season (old record 12, 1969) Stan would be #10 I believe.
221. IKE
Just about ALL of the discussions for this afternoon that I have read...Mobile...NO...Tallahassee...Key west...Miami...Orlando....tampa...Jacksonville...talk of this system developing into a possible strong storm. The Jacksonville discussions talks of a nor-easter...a strong storm and a hybrid type system maybe. This could get interesting and apparently most of the models are picking up on it...with plenty of warm air..then much cooler air to follow. Ugh...leee...
Ike, actually storms with hyrbid characteristics almost never become major. So this one might be fun to watch--been a long time since we had good gales here on St. Simons.
223. IKE
Even Birmingham,Al is talking about it in their discussion.." GFS is coming more in line
with NAM model with regards to strong easterly wave moving into NE
Gulf of Mexico late Tuesday. Will this become T.S. Tammy? The
models have slowed down the influx of deeper moisture into
central Alabama...and tapered off rain chances Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Any significant rain threat on Wednesday will be
confined to southeast counties."...

I guess it moves north-northeast toward Thursday time-frame with an influence from the cold front.

You're right... this system may have wide spread strong, but not severe winds. Going up the east coast of the Us as the front slows down along the coastal area. Even Lefty might get some winds!
Look at the satelite pics from late this afternoon there is a almost unbroken line of convection from 30/70 southeastward to 10/50 this must be caused by some sort of convergance in the atmosphere. Very unusual!
The NHC/TPC should drop the Greek alphabet and sell the naming rights for any post-Wilma storms on Ebay. All fear Hurricane Goldenpalace.com
Matilda, I have never seen that either!
It looks like the front is behind schedule, but I doubt it. High pressure timing is going to affect the path of Stan. With a faster forward speed, and a loss of six hours, there could be a slightly to the north of the current path forecast on the next NOAA update. By the way, the discussion is already wrong as moisture from Otis is here ahead of schedule.



FXUS64 KAMA 021919
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
219 PM CDT SUN OCT 2 2005

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW MORE WARM AND DRY ARE IN STORE FOR THE PANHANDLES BEFORE THE
NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE FACT THAT
THE MODELS ARE HOLDING THE FRONT UP BY AROUND 6 HOURS...THERE STILL
SEEMS TO BE PLENTY OF COLD AIR BEHIND IT AND HAVE THUS LOWERED
TEMPERATURES MAINLY FOR WED INTO SAT. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM OTTO
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BUT DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL SEE
ANY PRECIP FROM THIS UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. COMES CLOSER. THE BEST LIFT FROM THIS
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT AND
MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT.

AS STATED PREVIOUSLY TEMPS WERE LOWERED WED-SAT BUT IT MAY NOT HAVE
BEEN ENOUGH AS H85 TEMPS SUGGEST HIGHS COULD BE AROUND 60 WED AND
LOWER 60S THU. THINK THIS MAY HINGE A BIT ON CLOUD COVER AND
UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE PREVENTS FROM GOING TOO COLD AT THIS TIME.
LOW TEMPS WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES
THU MORNING BUT FRI MORNING MAY BE THE COLDEST AS WINDS DIMINISH AND
THE SKIES CLEAR OUT. IN FACT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES SEE THE FIRST FROST OF THE YEAR.

THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER ITS
DOUBTFUL WE WILL SEE TEMPS LIKE TODAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THIS
FRONT WILL PUSH WELL INTO CENTRAL TEXAS PREVENTING THE GULF FROM
OPENING UP TOO SOON.

HENNIG

That is a great idea for next year. Sell then naming rights for 2006 and put the money toward this years storms. That could be done each year. Pretty good MEAT.
Houstonian, you are correct. There are too many illogical statements and presumptions about the path of Stan. The principle of non-contradiction is not followed. The models do not claim to have more than short term accuracy. However, let's not ignore the cold front bearing down on the gulf! Also, doppler estimated rainfall is a real tool because it tells of events the models do not estimate! Nobody has successfully challenged the argument.
It appears almost like a "training effect" I remember an effect in late 80's with that effect and it was in the Bahamas going SE ward for couple of thousand miles and it brought S Florida rain and windy conditions and at that time they forecast a Tropical Storm to develop in the Key West area and moving it northward AND IT DID! I'll look and tell you which storm that was
Cirro, many have challenged your theory that drought leads to a tropical system decieding where to go. You just choose to stick to your theory. Which is fine, but it is at very best far fetched speculation.
It was Tropical Storm Marco in October 1990 developed near the Cuban coast south of Key West and went up Gulf of Mexico very close to west Coast of Florida 989ml and 65mph winds
233. IKE
So a system moves into the eastern gulf on Wednesday and another storm/Stan is in the extreme SW gulf as well. Could there be 2 storms in the gulf at the same time? Has that ever happened?
Matilda... you are so right about Rita, if you read the blogs here you knew it was coming.....also with Katrina, I sent an email to Brian Norcross asking why no one was even mentioning it and they blew it off and this was on August 18th.. where are you at?
It has happen and I don't think it was to long ago
In order for to happen one would have to be in the SW gulf and the other in the E or NE gulf
237. IKE
Looks like the 18Z GFS keeps it as a hybrid type system in the Gulf..then redevelops it/Tammy off of the east coast of Florida heading up the northeast with a nor-easter over New England by weeks end.
2 blocks from the beach in Fort Lauderdale. When Katina blew in it was wild the winds were west/northwest and as it scooted SW just before the coast our winds switched rapidly to the NE and then to the SE after went ashore in Hallandale. We could see the waves on the ocean and they were incredible!
Oh thanks IKE I'm leaving for Boston on Friday night
240. dcw
Umm...is it just me, or has Stan turned somewhat east of north since the 5 advisory? The center is off the northern yucatan now, with strong subscidence showing.
241. IKE
Looks like your in for a lot of rain from this system and east winds...how strong? Isn't known yet.
242. IKE
Sorry about that mitilda...maybe it won't come to be.
Satelite suggest that Stan is already set to reintensify as it comes off the coast in an hour or so. Convection is already starting to develop on the NW side of the storm It is more organized now than it was this morning
244. dcw
Never mind previous comment, vis loop is showing a center SW of the subscidence.
I can't believe Stan is still a Tropical Storm and it's just about ready to enter the Gulf of Mexico!

I believe Stan may intensify into a hurricane sooner than predicted.
if it somehow misses me in Fort Lauderdale this week then maybe I'll get a taste of it in Boston this upcoming weekend call me a storm chaser
Does anybody think that Stan will hang around long enough offshore for Wednesday's front to pick it up and take it northeast? Or is this Tammy-to-be more of a potential threat? (I'm in the FL panhandle by the way)
So a system moves into the eastern gulf on Wednesday and another storm/Stan is in the extreme SW gulf as well. Could there be 2 storms in the gulf at the same time? Has that ever happened?
Wait... That looks like a healthy wave off of Africa. And it's south of where TD 19 formed. Is this the storm that the GFS model was predicting a few days ago?
fear get that one i this did i found what i was looking for
People. We're missing the truly big story in the tropics.

The, ahem, landfall of Typhoon Longwang.

China's in for long, hard night.
Current plans are to be in Pensacola this coming Fri. & Sat. Wou;d it ne wise to re-schedule? THX
is it me or could we see a lot more TD out there next week?
It looks to me like there is some outflow developing on the northern side of the W Atlantic disturbance...and possibly the eastern side as well...does anyone else notice that too?
i think that we may get up to may be TD 30 would that be cool let me no if any one have this ? for me
As mention earlier look at that long area of convection stretching from the SE US southeast towards ITCZ zone and then eastward Lots of mischief to contend with.
Yeah, we should definitely see TD 21 pretty soon here.
I predict 23 named storms and 26 TD by the end of November
259. IKE
I thought the same thing about some outflow starting on the system east of Florida.
i think that we may see TD 21 and TD 22 in a few days and that would be V and W
23 named storms so that would be T V W then A B G and O and i think the O storm will be a fun storm if any one have this ? let me no and if any one no to may last ? let me no on that one too
oops i fear got the D one too
Some of the observations here on Stan are way too extreme. Notice of past events needs to be taken into account. At the very best they are limited in scope and much too random.
The Greek Alphabet:

Alpha
Beta
Gamma
Delta
Epsilon
Zeta
Eta
Theta
Iota
Kappa
Lambda
Mu
Nu
Xi
Omicron
Pi
Rho
Sigma
Tau
Upsilon
Phi
Chi
Psi
Omega
whats up yall. back fora min. lots of good football today. just wanted to say redskins 3-0 lol.
Another thing about the Greek alphabet:

If we do get up to Alpha, and we get up to it again next year, would they use the same name? Or would they go straight to Beta?
what is if we will get done with The Greek Alphabet then what if more storm
Wish the Masters update was in. Two hours to go. Look at the latest imagery on Stan. It does appear farther north. Any definite predictions by anybody out there on the next landfall and exact location?
Philadelphia 3-1
Just wanna say skins suck..LOL..J/K..nah happy for Brunnell, since my Jags stunk it up today..LOL..
for The Greek Alphabet i say that we will get to the Z storm
Hey guys. I have been busy all weekend. What is with the 1800Z GFS? It shows Stan, a TC off the east coast. Another TC off the west coast of FL and a third in the Atlantic.
273. avlos
lucky for china longwang was a pretty small storm with poor outflow... so when it hit taiwan it circulation was virtually destroyed. watching the loop at Link was pretty neat, also watching the radar from taiwan was interesting as well. On a pathetically childish note for which i apologize ahead for, i was talking to one of my coworkers today about Longwang and when i mentioned it, he started cracking up, I had no clue and then it dawned on me. BTW Longwang means Dragon King in chinese.
Sorry this was at the 120 hour.
Going by a 30-frame animation at http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html, it looks like there *seemed* to be a center of circulation further south and then, as convection covered that center, the *real* one became more visible further north? (No longitude and lattitude lines on this animation to check where the NHC said was the center.)
wg, it wasn;t pretty but who cares. we 3-0 lol. still no respect. like i say all along. it comes down to defense. and sorry bout the jags. i thought they had that game. we got the broncos next week so lets see what we can do


the center of stan looks to be where the nhc says it is. might be slightly north but based on ir and vis satelite it looks prettymuch where it is stated to be
i fix the center at 20.64n 89.8. at 5pm it was fixed at 20.7n 89.4w so i fix it slightly south of the nhc but mine is a aproximation. also motion is erractic due to its slow speed and weak steering currents so a south wobble if its true, even though slight, would not be a big change in forcast track.
wow look at this big one Super Typhoon HELEN (Dianmu/09W)
June 16 - 19
Max. Sustained Winds: 285 kph (155 kts.)
Central Pressure: 879 mb.

with a 879 mb what would that make the winds in mph i no the winds was not 285pmh a
155kts is 178mph . thats about what would be expected from a 879 system, though those winds might be to low i would expect 180-190 but its important to remeber its not that hard for a storm in the pacific to have winds of 170-190mph
for her why do they not call them Super hurricane when the winds get up to 155mph like they do in the W pacific
Hi Lefty, Been reading the blog for weeks now and have posted very little. You seem very knowledgeable so I was wondering if it was possible to have a period from Nov to Jun that is abnormally cool that could cause next years hurricane season to be less active?
Found the "LonLat" option - no disagreement with the NHC after all. :p
Just jumpy about wobbles, I guess.
I still have my eye on Stan and will until he goes into Mexico.
One interesting thing--the heat content of the water in the Bay of Campeche is much lower from about 20.5 N on south. So if Stan doesn't get to the north, like around 21 N or beyond, he may have a hard time reaching hurricane status. WSW or SW motion is not unusual in the Bay of Campeche in October.
not really as its not the air tempature but the sun that gives the tropics there heat. it might make it a slow season to start but the reason the season peak is sept is that the time from spring till late summer the sun is at its highest angle and heats the tropics vary effiecently. so the key is how hot or cold the waters in the tropics are and roight now we appear to be in a cycle of hotter watter temps. this years temps are 2-4 degress hotter than normal. so it would be hard to not have that trend continue next year. also if we don't have any storms in the carribean those temps could play into stronger guilf staorm and nor easters this winter. if u look at the carribean there waters are really hot as we have not had any storms to take that heat away and the currents can only do so much. so this winter will be brutal. if any one remebrs our last crazy season, 1995, that janurary we had one of the worse blizzards in the north east and that storm even had gale force wonds as it formed over florida. so this winter will be colder and wetter basically. but those water temps are really tied to sunlight more and not air tempature
It would have been interesting if this had been a strong El Nino year with shear preventing the formation of lots of storms and surpressing their intensity. Think of the energy that would have been available for winter storms from all the warm water!
st, there is a msall cool eddy but the majority of the bay is extremely warm and he will likley reach hurricane status with ease.

I made a post a few days ago lefty about winters following years with 18 or more storms (there have been 4) All were followed by extreme winter weather events in the northeast US.
st i expect a huge winter here in the north east. hope we get a 96 blizzard type storm. nothing like 2 feet of snow lol. plus i want to experience thunder snow again. that was awsome
That map is different from the one I saw on Steve's blog. Sometimes I question how well we know how deep the warm waters are--how is temperature mapped at depth?
yeah st, i remebr that post and i have noticed the trnd myself. i expect this winter to be a good one. thank good i don;t use gas or oil to heat my house lol. plus my house , actually apartment, is on the top floor so i actually get good heating from the lower untis so in the winter i barely have to run the heat lol.
Lefty, Thank you very much for your explanation.
its pretty much the same map just different colors and mine is more specifric if u will. he also notes the heat content ion the gulf could support atleast a cat 2 so it should not be a problem with stan reaching cat 1 status and the ships makes him a 95mph hurricane in 72 hrs so we will see what happens. i personally think he will stall in the bay but eventually make landfall like roxanne in 95
Here is that post again--

1887--busiest season of the 19th century 19 storms and hurricanes--followed by the blizzard of March 1888

1933--21 storms and hurricanes followed by Feb 1934 coldest month of all time in NYC and Boston, snowiest February of all time in NYC and coldest temps of all time in Boston (downtown), -18F; Central Park, -15F; and Philadephia -11F

1969 12 hurricanes (record) and 18 total storms including subtropical storms followed by

Dec 1969 great snowstorm over interion NE with many records set (although not in the megalopolis) and Jan 1970--coldest month of all time in Burlington, VT and Albany, NY

1995--19 storms and hurricanes followed by

The great blizzard of Jan 1996. Heaviest snow of all time in Philadelphia. State snow record set for NJ. Snowiest winter ever for NYC, Boston and Philadelphia. Coldest state temp record set in MN.

4 years isn't much--but there aren't many hurricane seasons with 18 or more storms to provide a sample.
ur welcome siesta
yeah st. i live in northern va. it snowed almost 3 days in the blizzard of 96. we had over 2 feet and it came down so heavy at times it was accompained by thunder. i was 16 than. i also was not into weather like i am today and would love to track a blizzard like that this year
Lefty what are your thoughts about the system being forecast by some models late in the week in the NE gulf? Models seem to be forecasting a good storm, tropical or hyrbid. Charleston weather discussion seems like they are quite alarmed. Jacksonville is following a more wait and see approach. Do you think something strong will form?
i think a cat 2 or higher storm and wherew it will be i don;t know but tell u this much, ia m trying to make plans to chase her if she comes close to va beach. so to answer ur question, i think we wil have a cyclone and it will be tammy and remebr thos women this year
can a blizzards be like a hurricane too and can they get a eye too and do they get a name and dos any one have a photo of a blizzards like hurricane that has a eye any one no this ? let me no
During the white christmas snowstorm of 1989 we had thundersnow here on St Simons for two hours between 2:30-4:30 am on December 23rd. Whiteout. Temps of 22/21 degrees.
good evening everyone, just a thought about the ants connection and tc's, here in Dania Fl we have been getting downpours all day long, however I have noticed all these black ants crawling up my house, they are everywhere. I cant think in the last 4 years I have had any ant problem living here. Except for your occasional fire ant pile. But I have not had black ants ever.
i hope its not a sign for something to come. Katrina and Rita were enough for S Fla this year.
Arlene- strongest June storm since Allison '95

Cindy- borderline TS/Cat. 1

Emily- borderline cat. 4/5 (strongest July hurricane on record)

Gert- minimal tropical storm (the outcast)

Irene- cat. 2, long transition to extratropical

Katrina- 5th strongest ever, 3rd strongest ever to strike the US, deadliest US hurricane since 1928, possibly cat. 5 landfall

Maria- cat. 3 in Atlantic

Ophelia- incredibly destructibe for a cat. 1

Rita- 14th strongest to strike US, 3rd strongest ever, possibly cat. 4 landfall

Tammy- ?

Wilma- ?


Look at it this way: Once we reach the Greek Alphabet, there will be no more female names this year. :)
304. dcw
Yes, 888888888888889, they can. There was a Mediteranian (spelling?) "hurricane" once, only there was snow in the eyewall and it was January :P
My guess is a hybrid system with pressures around 976 mb sweeping up North FL/SE GA and tracking up the coast and seeing the lowest pressure and strongest winds here on GA coast since the 1993 superstorm. But you know my lousy record with predictions!


And yeah 88888888 a lot of strong blizzards and noreasters develop eye type features.

A wacky storm in December 1994 deepened to 967 mb over the Gulf Steam and as I remember really looked tropical--well defined eye on satellite, although I cannot locate any pics now. The eye structure degraded some as it crashed ashore in Rhode Island, but was still recognizable. Doppler radars showed winds of over 120 kts at 3000 feet over Rhode Island.

One note about that, there was a layer of much cooler air in 40s pulled in from Massachusetts Bay, and this provided some stability and insulation from the wild winds further up--so the 10 or 15% reduction in wind speeds did not apply. Wind gusts did hit the low 90s mph in some places, but no winds approaching 100 kts like you might expect with a doppler reading like that were recorded anywhere in New England.
can a blizzards be like a hurricane too and can they get a eye too and do they get a name and dos any one have a photo of a blizzards like hurricane that has a eye any one no this ? let me no
water temps where the 'eye' formed in the Dec 1994 storm were 78 F
Intense winter stoms in Europe get named, but not the ones here.
dos a blizzard get a name? any one no that if no why?
why are we talking ne gulf and charlston and Jacksonville?
The 'ultrabomb' storm of Jan 1990 which passed about 350 miles offshore and did not give much effects to the NE United States deepened to 936 mb (!) and had an eye type structure on Jan 4, 1990.
dos any one have a satellite or photo of a eye in a blizzard like hurricane so i can see it?
cause models indicate that either a hurricane or a stong subtropical storm will form in the northeasten Gulf Wednesday or Thursday and sweep up across NE FL and SE GA and up the east coast.
j this is why


THE FRI THROUGH SUN PERIOD IS WHERE THE REAL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FRIDAY...WITH
A STRONG COLD FRONT TREKKING INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY
SATURDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/DGEX/NOGAPS/UKMET ALL...TO SOME
DEGREE...DEVELOP A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT FRI OR SAT. THE CANADIAN IS
BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A MONSTROUS SUBTROPICAL LOW SPINNING
UP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY. THE OTHERS EITHER DEVELOP A
DISCRETE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE PERIOD OR BRING SOMETHING
OF A TROPICAL ORIGIN ACROSS FL UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THAT
PERIOD. WITH THIS PACKAGE...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE FRONT STALLING JUST
OFFSHORE BUT WITH DECENT COASTAL CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN
ESSENCE...THE FCST WILL BE PRETTY SIMILAR TO THE EARLIER PART WITH
THE HIGHEST POP AND CLOUD COVER RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
WATERS.
dos any one have a link to the big blizzards that made landfall
be back later guys
lefty

what's pop in last line of forcast also what is baroclinic system

I like Joe Gibbs but am from Orange Crush country so gotta go with Thunder at invesco field

this is not very good, first one I could find.

http://www.fettes.com/shetland/storm%20history.htm
POP = Probability Of Precipitation
stsimons, yes I remember your posts as well, I suppose we just might still be cussing and dis-cussing the weather long after hurricane season is over. And I was thinking earlier how these female storms have been beee- otches this year, hope we are wrong about Tammy. Anyway, the weather here in jax has made a complete change starting Sat 3pm...something's going on out there, the pine trees are wiggling thier fingers, the clouds are practicing exploding into the sky...yes something's going on out there..
tnx st simons

I hope the pop is high inland here in SC we have been a mini drought here and i had to stetch hoses 200ft to water trees that i thought were established three years ago

what's "cape" I am readint the forcast out of Wilmington NC

tnx again
What was the major regional natural history event of the 20th century? No contest.

Lake Erie froze over by December 14, 1976, an early record. This normally puts an end to the lake effect snowstorms created by winds picking up moisture from the lake surface, converting it to snow and dumping it when those winds reach shore. But that winter something different happened.

It began to snow just after Christmas and a few inches accumulated almost every day through the next month. By late January snow depth in Buffalo was 30 to 35 inches and street plowing was already falling behind -- 33 of the city's 79 plows were in for repairs. More ominous, snow depth on the 10,000 square miles of Lake Erie surface was also almost three feet.

Although the National Weather Service had posted blizzard warnings, that fateful Friday, January 28, 1977 started out quite pleasant. There was little wind and it wasn't too cold for late January. But suddenly, just before noon, the infamous Blizzard of '77 hit.

The temperature quickly plummeted to near zero and the winds arrived with gusts peaking at over 70 miles per hour. This produced a wind chill that dropped almost off the chart to 60 below. Only about seven inches of new snow fell over the next several days, but western New York and nearby Canada were also inundated with those tons of snow blown in off Lake Erie.

As one consequence, visibility remained at zero for the first 25 hours of the storm. Drivers found themselves being buried and many, surrounded by the whiteout, were forced to stay in their cars. Some of those contributed to the 29 death toll, dying of carbon monoxide poisoning or exposure. (In another episode carbon monoxide from a snow blower started in an enclosed garage killed not only the operator but his daughter in a nearby bedroom.) Hearing of people marooned in their cars, police struggled over drifts to bang on car roofs. They were relieved to receive no answer because they had no way of digging anyone out.

Ordinary snow would not have been so bad. During this same period the east end of Lake Ontario received almost six feet, but theirs didn't pack the way it did in Buffalo. Here the wind was so strong that it broke up snow crystals and compressed them into drifts that were cement-like in quality. At the same time buildings acted like snow fences causing the drifts to accumulate in some places to 30 feet, enough to bury a house.

The problem became more than the usual too few plows; now it was plows that could not penetrate the drifts. Some broke down, were quickly buried and themselves contributed to the difficulty of opening roads. The state's National Guard and Department of Transportation, the Army Corps of Engineers, nearby towns and commercial firms had to bring in earth moving equipment to handle the huge accumulation.

Seven western New York counties were designated part of a major national disaster area and soldiers were dispatched from Fort Bragg in North Carolina to assist in the clean-up. It lasted well into February.

Although there was some looting and theft during the storm, it was mostly an episode that brought the community together. Stores and restaurants and hotels provided food and places to stay, often free. Agencies like the Salvation Army and the Red Cross as well as city and county departments worked continuously through the emergency to provide services. Individual people helped not only neighbors but strangers as well.

and this is the year 1977
MysteryMeat at 9:59 PM GMT on October 02, 2005 Wrote:
"The NHC/TPC should drop the Greek alphabet and sell the naming rights for any post-Wilma storms on Ebay. All fear Hurricane Goldenpalace.com"

Hurricane Enron will knock out electrical power for months.
But on the bright side, the Dept. of Homeland Security will be able to upgrade and hire the manager of the Budweiser Clydedales to oversee FEMA.
The GFS has a large hurricane in the western Atlanic two weeks from now...
Baroclinic systems are storms which get their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts, like mid latitude storms with fronts and different air masses. The strongest cold front of the fall is forecast to move into the southeast on Thurs/Fri. A lot of energy will be available to form a hurricane in the Gulf--and the question is whether the hurricane will maintain its identity as a seperate storm racing north on the east side of the trough containing the cold front, and how far north it will get before it merges with the front and creates a strong gale storm. The upper level winds off the eastern US from GA north will be strong--and unlike a tropical system a subtropical system or a purely midlatiture extratropical cyclone can derive energy from strong upper level winds--instead of shearing such a system, the can strengthen it!

Conditions will be favorable for a hurricane to develop in the central or NE gulf by Wendesday/Thursday. A situation like this is even harder to forecast because you have the added uncertainty of transitioning into a subtropical and midlatitude system. If a hurricane hits just right, as it moves into the zone of temperature contrasts and upper level winds and jets, the jets will form an outflow channel and strengthen the storm even as it looses tropical characteristics, or allow it to maintain its strength. However, they can also weaken the hurricane before it starts to transition--so forecasting is very tricky.

Examples of hurricanes that became hybrid and then powerful storms without tropical characteristics at all are Hazel, which caused hurricane force winds and over a foot of rain as far north as Toronto after landfall on the NC/SC border, and Audrey, which made landfall on the LA/TX border and turned into a viscious 972 mb storm tracking over Ohio which caused severe wind damage on land and a great deal of damage to Great Lakes shipping.

So the models are forecasting a tropical or hybrid system to form over the Gulf and sweep to the NE--but aside from the usual uncertainties in path and intensity, are the uncertainties regarding the transition from a tropical cyclone into a powerful subtropical cyclone and midlatitude cyclone. The models are having a hard time with this and although they agree that a storm will form, they disagree on how well it will transition and how effectively it will take advantage of the temperature contrasts and upper level energy and jet streaks.
326. IKE
A new blog by Dr. Masters
CAPE = convective available potential energy.
and for future reference, here is a glossary :)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/jetstream/append/glossary_a.htm
and here is a guide to contractions/acronyms/abbreviations used in the discussions.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/jetstream/append/acronyms_a.htm
st simons

wow quite a detailed answer and discussion we do usually get a strong cold front in early October here... cant give specifics but just remember cold (for here) cub scout campin trips with my son!!!

we really do need some rain ahead of this system because if we just getr cool dry winds the risk of wildfires will be really high though not like the Santa Anas

jldfish where in the upstate are you we sit here in the clemson area