WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Yearly, Monthly Heat Records Dissolve In 2015's Global Onslaught

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 2:04 AM GMT on January 21, 2016

The year 2015 ended in spectacular fashion, winding up as the warmest year in more than a century of recordkeeping--and it’s wasn’t even close to a photo finish. NASA and NOAA held a joint press conference on Wednesday to release their global climate assessments for the year. It had become obvious in recent weeks that 2015 was heading toward a new record high, but the final numbers were still startling. NOAA calculated that the average global temperature across both land and ocean surfaces for 2015 was 0.90°C (1.62°F) above the 20th-century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F). This makes 2015 the warmest calendar year, as well as the warmest of any 12-month period, in global temperature data going back to 1880. Using a slightly different technique, NASA confirmed that 2015 was the warmest year in this 136-year period.

The margin of 2015’s victory is itself noteworthy. NOAA calculated that 2015 beat the previous record warmth of 2014 by 0.16°C (0.29°F), which is the largest such margin for any year. NASA came up with a slightly smaller value--0.13°C (0.23°F)--which tied with 1998’s margin of victory.

Last year was the third-warmest on record for satellite-based estimates of temperature through the lowest five miles of the atmosphere, as calculated by the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH). Record warmth was recorded for autumn (September-November) as well as for December. Because these are indirect, large-scale estimates of temperature well above ground level, derived from satellite data, they need not correspond to trends in direct ground-based measurements of surface temperature.


Figure 1. Yearly global temperature (as expressed against the 20th-century average), 1880 - 2015. Shaded red bars indicate the average for each decade. Despite a relatively flat temperature trend in the first decade of the 2000s, global warming didn’t “stop” then. Each decade since the 1960s has been warmer than the prior one. Image credit: NASA/NOAA.



Figure 2. Departure of temperature from average for 2015, the warmest year for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Image credit: National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) .

The role of El Niño
We can give El Niño credit (or blame) for part of this year’s record-smashing global temperature, but the shadow of longer-term warming due to human influence is inescapable. El Niño events tend to increase heat transfer from the ocean to atmosphere by spreading warm water across a broad stretch of the tropical Pacific, so as our climate warms, we can expect the biggest record-year spikes to occur during El Niño (as evident in Figure 2, below). That said, the huge margin of 2015’s record is comparable to the typical amount of global-scale warmth produced by a strong El Niño: several tenths of a degree Celsius. This means that 2015 may well have set a record even if El Niño were absent.

“2015 was remarkable even in the context of the ongoing El Niño,” said NASA/GISS director Gavin Schmidt. “Last year’s temperatures had an assist from El Niño, but it is the cumulative effect of the long-term trend that has resulted in the record warming that we are seeing.”


Figure 3. Departures from average in global monthly temperature from 1980 to 2015, with colors showing whether each month was characterized by El Niño (red), La Niña (blue), or neutral conditions. Image credit: NASA/NOAA.

What next?
The second year of a major El Niño tends to warm the global atmosphere even more than the first, as the atmosphere gradually adjusts to the ocean-surface warming. This means that 2016 has a very good shot at breaking the global temperature record that was just set by 2015, which in turn beat out 2014. Since records began in 1880, there have never been three consecutive record-warm years--another piece of evidence that long-term climate change is underpinning our current string of warmth. It would be exceedingly unlikely for El Niño to extend into 2017, so we might expect that year to break the string, but barring a huge volcanic eruption, the decade of the 2010s has an excellent chance of ending up warmer than the 2000s (see shaded bars in Figure 1).

The UK Met Office will soon be releasing its annual forecast of global temperature for the next decade (here’s the forecast issued in January 2015). As we discussed early last year, the now-positive state of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation suggests that we may have embarked on a decade or two of more-frequent El Niño events and accelerated atmospheric warming, similar to what occurred in the 1980s and 1990s. The PDO helps explain a good bit of the multidecadal variation in global temperature, including the slowdown in atmospheric warming evident in the 2000s and early 2010s. During these slowdowns, Earth’s oceans are taking up a larger fraction of the heat being trapped by human-produced greenhouse gases; during the speedups, the oceans are returning some of that heat to the surface. All the while, ever-increasing amounts of human-produced greenhouse gases are pushing up both the peaks and valleys of global temperature.

Earth's warmest December on record
In a fitting capstone to a sizzling year, December 2015 was the warmest calendar month in Earth’s 136-year temperature record, according to the NOAA/NCEI monthly recap released on Wednesday. December 2015 was the eighth consecutive month that a monthly high temperature record was set in NOAA's database. NASA also rated December 2015 as the single warmest calendar month in its database.

Figure 4. Departure of temperature from average for December 2015, the warmest December for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Record warmth was observed over vast swaths of the globe, including far eastern North America, northern South America, southern Africa, and central and northern Europe, as well as most of the equatorial Indian Ocean and western North Atlantic. Image credit: National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) .

Arctic sea ice comes in at 4th lowest December extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during December 2015 was the 4th lowest in the 36-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). An usual surge of warm air during the last week of December that brought temperatures above freezing close to the North Pole, and brought sea ice formation to a virtual halt. Arctic sea ice was close to a record minimum (for that time of year) going into 2016, possibly due to this warm surge.

Notable global heat and cold marks set for December 2015
Hottest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: 40.6°C (105.1°F) at Armero, Columbia on December 26 and 31, and also at Guaymaral, Colombia on December 31.
Coldest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: -63.8°C (-82.8°F) at Geo Summit, Greenland, December 16.
Hottest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: 47.2°C (117.0°F) at Port Augusta, Australia, December 19.
Coldest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: -43.1°C (-45.6°F) at Dome Fuji, Antarctica, December 1, and at Pole of Inaccessibility, Antarctica, December 2.

Major stations that set (not tied) new all-time heat or cold records (for any month) in December 2015
Queenstown (South Africa) max. 40.4°C  1 December
Estcourt (South Africa) max. 40.4°C 1 December
Belem (Brazil) max. 38.5°C 1 December
Caxias (Brazil) max. 42.7°C 2 December
Vryburg  (South Africa) max. 42.3°C 6 December
Van Zylsrus (South Africa) max. 43.8°C 6 December
Kuruman  (South Africa) max. 40.8°C 7 December
Frankfort  (South Africa) max. 38.1°C 7 December
Pretoria  (South Africa) max. 41.0°C 7 December
Ottosdal  (South Africa) max. 42.0°C 7 December
Rustenburg (South Africa) max. 39.4°C 7 December
Bethlehem (South Africa) max. 35.6°C 7 December (revised to 36.2°C on 24 December)
Cooma (Australia) max. 39.5°C 20 December
Ladysmith (South Africa) max. 41.5°C 24 December
Richard Bay (South Africa) max. 42.7°C 24 December
Cedara (South Africa) max. 40.4°C 24 December
Pietermaritzburg (South Africa) max. 42.1°C 24 December
Tigerhoek (South Africa) max. 43.2°C 30 December
Robertson (South Africa) max. 44.8°C 30 December

Kudos go to Maximiliano Herrera for supplying the data for the "Notable global heat and cold marks set for December 2015" and "Major stations that set (not tied) new all-time heat or cold records in December 2015" sections of the post.

Coming up: full coverage of the big mid-Atlantic snowstorm
We’ll have a full update Thursday afternoon on the mammoth winter storm that will be developing from the central Appalachians onward to the East Coast over the next several days. Computer models remain insistent that snow amounts of 15-25” are quite possible over large parts of Virginia, West Virginia, Maryland, and the District of Columbia. High-impact snows may extend further north, but the uncertainty there is greater, and the amounts should drop off rapidly toward the north edge of the storm (see embedded tweet below for one forecaster’s unofficial take). If you are in the targeted areas, now is the time to make any needed preparations. To find out the odds that a given amount of snow will fall in your area, check out the innovative probabilistic maps being generated by the NWS offices serving the Baltimore-Washington and New York City areas. We’ll be covering the storm with a WU liveblog on Friday and Saturday; watch for details.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson


Climate Change Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 426. washingtonian115:

People were so focused on the blizzard they forgot about this.Accidents have been reported.I went out and the melted snow on the car tracks have turned into ice.This is like natures way to stop people from preparing.


The roads were like an ice skating ring. Working from home the rest of the week.
Quoting 1. Drakoen:



The roads were like an ice skating ring. Working from home the rest of the week.


Atlanta/Birmingham Part 3 (Charlotte or Raleigh was part 2)
Quoting 2. GeorgiaStormz:



Atlanta Part 3 (Charlotte or Raleigh was part 2)


Raleigh.
Quoting 435. sar2401:

Yes indeed, this is the pattern I've been talking about for a while. As snow piles up further north of while we keep getting less and less and modified Arctic air, enough phasing will occur to at least get the snow line down into the central Southeast states and further toward the Gulf. Unfortunately, this cold air will produce freezing rain and sleet before it produces snow, It may take several more systems like we'll see Friday to get at least some snow flurries down to you, but I think it will happen within the next three weeks. The same as the upcoming storm will be high impact for the areas from about North Carolina to DC this time, we will see high impacts storms further south. I'm hoping we don't get several freezing rain events before we finally get snow since that's likely to really completely screw things up here. Could be a tough month ahead for all of us.
Yep..The next trof is no slouch either..


That said, the huge margin of 2015’s record is comparable to the typical amount of global-scale warmth produced by a strong El Niño: several tenths of a degree Celsius. This means that 2015 may well have set a record even if El Niño were absent.

Pretty remarkable
the GFS at 60 hours? reminded me of the 93 storm. i dont know why, but me googling it yesterday may have something to do with that.
They completely messed this event up. Roads were untreated. Numerous accidents being reported in and around the Beltway.
Welcome to DC.
The weekend event should be better since everyone will be off the roads.

Steve Chenevey FOX5Verified account %u200F@stevechenevey 11m11 minutes ago
Yep, #Arlington roads are in GREAT shape... Clarendon Blvd - count the wrecks in this pic #snow #DC #VA



Quoting 8. Drakoen:

They completely messed this event up. Roads were untreated. Numerous accidents being reported in and around the Beltway.
Sounds terrible..Not to mention what is transpiring over Texas as we speak.
About an inch on the ground, and approaching two. This really caught people off guard.
Quoting 1. Drakoen:



The roads were like an ice skating ring. Working from home the rest of the week.


Kenilworth Avenue to Greenbelt was also a sheet of ice. I had dinner with a professional colleague (from MN) in hyattsville and drove him back to Greenbelt. Long tough trip. the snow fell, melted and refroze into ice.

Probably should have been more alert to it and roads should have been pretreated.. monday morning quarterbacking I confess because I wasn't thinking about more than a little snow on the roads.. much MUCH worse than that verified!!
Quoting 11. Climate175:

About an inch on the ground, and approaching two. This really caught people off guard.

I don't understand why, NWS put up the Advisory this morning.
Quoting 4. hydrus:

Yep..The next trof is no slouch either..



Well, I guess the upside for this storm is that areas around NYC shouldn't see more than 3" to 6" compared to earlier doom-like amounts. Boston and New England may end up with very little or nothing. The problem for forecasters is the snow cutoff line is going to be very sharp, with areas getting a foot and areas getting an inch likely be within 25 miles of each other. This is the same problem forecasters experienced in the January 27, 2015 storm, but they'll need to come up with estimates to hang their hats on within the next 12 hours or so. The chances of those being wrong to either the high or low side is probably fairly high, and that's not even counting how much of the initial precipitation may fall as rain instead of snow near the coast. This is one of those times I'm glad I didn't pursue a met career. I'd be old enough to to probably be in charge of some office, and my forecast would probably come out about two days before my immediate "retirement" was strongly suggested. :-)
Quoting 13. 1Zach1:


I don't understand why, NWS put up the Advisory this morning.
You have people who just don't heed the warning.
I really wish Dr. Masters and Bob Henson would not have posted a new entry about a topic un-related to the impending major storm. Their entry contains lots of good information that should be reviewed and discussed.

However, most of the folks posting tonight are concerned with the monster storm approaching. As am I.

Perhaps they can re-post it during a quieter time. Just my two cents. Then again, it is their blog.
Quoting 10. hydrus:

Sounds terrible..Not to mention what is transpiring over Texas as we speak.
What's happening in Texas? I just got back in from a day of furniture moving and hadn't heard of any problems in Texas.
Quoting 16. violet312s:

I really wish Dr. Masters and Bob Henson would not have posted a new entry about a topic un-related to the impending major storm. Their entry contains lots of good information that should be reviewed and discussed.

However, most of the folks posting tonight are concerned with the monster storm approaching. As am I.

Perhaps they can re-post it during a quieter time. Just my two cents. Then again, it is their blog.
I would have belayed the hot 2015 discussion until Sunday as well, but I don't run the blog. I think you're right that the implications of another record year won't get discussed as much over the next couple of days as they would on Sunday. Just my Zimbabwean two cents worth, which is worth a lot less than two US copper zinc affairs. :-)
Quoting 16. violet312s:

I really wish Dr. Masters and Bob Henson would not have posted a new entry about a topic un-related to the impending major storm. Their entry contains lots of good information that should be reviewed and discussed.

However, most of the folks posting tonight are concerned with the monster storm approaching. As am I.

Perhaps they can re-post it during a quieter time. Just my two cents. Then again, it is their blog.
Howdy Violet..Sometimes folks just leave the other blog up and continue to discuss the posts listed there...I took my last one down, but some may still be commenting on it.
I swear, every time with these clippers we always get either more snow than expected or none/a dusting/bust
Quoting 17. sar2401:

What's happening in Texas? I just got back in from a day of furniture moving and hadn't heard of any problems in Texas.
The low pressure area that will be responsible for the major storm is wrapping up in that region..The center is over the TX Panhandle....

Quoting 20. Articuno:

I swear, every time with these clippers we always get either more snow than expected or none/a dusting/bust
Clippers should never be underestimated. Manitoba Maulers being the worst......Definitely the coldest.
Quoting 12. georgevandenberghe:



Kenilworth Avenue to Greenbelt was also a sheet of ice. I had dinner with a professional colleague (from MN) in hyattsville and drove him back to Greenbelt. Long tough trip. the snow fell, melted and refroze into ice.

Probably should have been more alert to it and roads should have been pretreated.. monday morning quarterbacking I confess because I wasn't thinking about more than a little snow on the roads.. much MUCH worse than that verified!!
Seems as if temperatures close to freezing during the day, which prompted some melting, high humidity, and then temperatures falling five or six degrees below freezing right after sunset, was the cause of the ice you experienced. I don't know that all those events were predicted. Pretreatment is an expensive process, and one most road departments don't like to use unless icing is a high probability event. This is one of those times when studded snow tires or even good old fashioned chains are a good option, especially if it's going to be slow going anyway.
I guess I'll just settle with severe weather. :/
Quoting 24. Andrebrooks:

I guess I'll just settle with severe weather. :/
I do not know where your at, but severe is on the table, and a few tornadoes seems likely....specially on the northern gulf coast....This is my opinion, not a forecast.
Quoting 21. hydrus:

The low pressure area that will be responsible for the major storm is wrapping up in that region..The center is over the TX Panhandle....


Ah, OK, but, other than wind, not a lot of sensible weather changes due to the developing low. Looks like the WAA and speed of the low will spare the TX Panhandle from anything other than some rain showers before the low rockets off to the SE.
Quoting 19. hydrus:

Howdy Violet..Sometimes folks just leave the other blog up and continue to discuss the posts listed there...I took my last one down, but some may still be commenting on it.


Hydrus, thanks for the answer on the last blog. I had to go work on a Coursera course.
00z NAM has some strange stuff going on, shows rain starting out in the DC area (even though it's below freezing the entire time) and by the 00z Sun timeframe its just dumping snow over WVA/MD/VA border area.
Little excerpt from our local Mets...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
721 PM CST WED JAN 20 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HAVE CONCENTRATED ON SHORT TERM SO WILL MAKE THIS QUICK AND
SOMEWHAT SHORT.

HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH EFFECTIVE FROM 6 AM FRIDAY UNTIL
NOON SATURDAY.

CURRENTLY UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW
NOW EXITING TO OUR EAST AS NEXT SYSTEM ALREADY GEARING UP IN
SOUTHERN PLAINS AS CAN BE SEEN IN LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. RAIN
WILL SPREAD INTO THE MID STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS OUT OF EAST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI BY THURSDAY EVENING. LOW THEN TRACKS UP THROUGH
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA ON FRIDAY WHILE CLOSED 850
MBAR LOW TRACKS JUST SOUTH OF THE ALABAMA BORDER. SOMEWHAT RARE TO
SEE CLOSED 700 MBAR LOW THIS FAR SOUTH BUT WE HAVE ONE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. ALSO...GOOD DEFORMATION ZONES DEVELOPS ACROSS TENNESSEE.
SO EVERYTHING STACKING UP FOR A GOOD SNOW EVENT HERE IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BE HEFTY AND
RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN.


.CLIMATE...THE HEAVIEST CALENDAR DAY SNOWFALL IN THE MONTH OF
JANUARY SINCE 1950 IS 8.1 INCHES ON JANUARY 7TH 1988. YOU CAN FIND
A COMPLETE LISTING OF JANUARY SNOWS >= TO 5.0 INCHES SINCE 1950 ON
THE NWS NASHVILLE FACEBOOK PAGE.
Quoting 28. Qazulight:



Hydrus, thanks for the answer on the last blog. I had to go work on a Coursera course.
What is that.?...If you have time to explain...:)
Woah there, is this '96part 2. The historical snow maps and tracks and everything line up pretty well, too bad this wont actually come and drop a lot in the NE.

Quoting 1. Drakoen:



The roads were like an ice skating ring. Working from home the rest of the week.
I'm staying at home as well.This clipper blew up over D.C and this is just the start with 2 and half inches in my yard sure as yeck is brighter outside now too.
Must be some snowfall rates, 6-8" near Boston in 2 frames, would be cool if this kept up haha

Quoting 29. 1Zach1:

00z NAM has some strange stuff going on, shows rain starting out in the DC area (even though it's below freezing the entire time) and by the 00z Sun timeframe its just dumping snow over WVA/MD/VA border area.
The NAM is great with winter systems. Problem is those very warm waters off the coast do throw the models off...

Violet312s: Yep on it just depends for storm in Triangle. The good news is that decision time on charity event will come and decision will be made.
Quoting 33. washingtonian115:

I'm staying at home as well.This clipper blew up over D.C and this is just the start with 2 and half inches in my yard sure as yeck is brighter outside now too.
Isnt winter full of surprises.?..Ice storms, frozen fog, wind ripping it all over, blizzards, and the like...and there's more...lots more...I luv ribbin ya Wash..You come back with snappy retorts...:)
Quoting 37. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Ahhh...heck....i would just split to Bermuda before Jonas threw down the icy cold mess...Return flow should knock it down before the next round....Good evening Keep...
Quoting 35. hydrus:

The NAM is great with winter systems. Problem is those very warm waters off the coast do throw the models off...




As much as I want the northern tracks, I can't say I believe the NAM for a second. But we'll see! Storms always go haywire on their way along the gulfcoast by 50-100 miles, ruins many a snow event in GA/AL. We'll how this sets up. The more dynamic the system the more variable it becomes sometimes.

Tough decisions forecasting for NYC though.
Quoting 31. hydrus:

What is that.?...If you have time to explain...:)


https://www.coursera.org/learn/analytics-excel

I just dropped out. I didn't understand the test after the lecture. So I dropped out. I will restart after I complete Khan Academy Calculus and Statistics.

I finished Python for Informatics, and Interactive Python and history of the Internet.
According to data from NASA:
2015 is the record hottest calendar year globally.
2014-2015 is the record hottest 2-calendar-year period globally.
2013-2015 is the record hottest 3-calendar-year period globally.
2012-2015 is the record hottest 4-calendar-year period globally.
2011-2015 is the record hottest 5-calendar-year period globally.
2010-2015 is the record hottest 6-calendar-year period globally.
2009-2015 is the record hottest 7-calendar-year period globally.
2008-2015 is the record hottest 8-calendar-year period globally.
2007-2015 is the record hottest 9-calendar-year period globally.
2006-2015 is the record hottest 10-calendar-year period globally.
2005-2015 is the record hottest 11-calendar-year period globally.
2004-2015 is the record hottest 12-calendar-year period globally.
2003-2015 is the record hottest 13-calendar-year period globally.
2002-2015 is the record hottest 14-calendar-year period globally.
2001-2015 is the record hottest 15-calendar-year period globally.
2000-2015 is the record hottest 16-calendar-year period globally.
1999-2015 is the record hottest 17-calendar-year period globally.
1998-2015 is the record hottest 18-calendar-year period globally.
1997-2015 is the record hottest 19-calendar-year period globally.
1996-2015 is the record hottest 20-calendar-year period globally.
1995-2015 is the record hottest 21-calendar-year period globally.
1994-2015 is the record hottest 22-calendar-year period globally.
1993-2015 is the record hottest 23-calendar-year period globally.
1992-2015 is the record hottest 24-calendar-year period globally.
1991-2015 is the record hottest 25-calendar-year period globally.
1990-2015 is the record hottest 26-calendar-year period globally.
1989-2015 is the record hottest 27-calendar-year period globally.
1988-2015 is the record hottest 28-calendar-year period globally.
1987-2015 is the record hottest 29-calendar-year period globally.
1986-2015 is the record hottest 30-calendar-year period globally.
1985-2015 is the record hottest 31-calendar-year period globally.
1984-2015 is the record hottest 32-calendar-year period globally.
1983-2015 is the record hottest 33-calendar-year period globally.
1982-2015 is the record hottest 34-calendar-year period globally.
1981-2015 is the record hottest 35-calendar-year period globally.
1980-2015 is the record hottest 36-calendar-year period globally.
1979-2015 is the record hottest 37-calendar-year period globally.
1978-2015 is the record hottest 38-calendar-year period globally.
1977-2015 is the record hottest 39-calendar-year period globally.
1976-2015 is the record hottest 40-calendar-year period globally.
1975-2015 is the record hottest 41-calendar-year period globally.
1974-2015 is the record hottest 42-calendar-year period globally.
1973-2015 is the record hottest 43-calendar-year period globally.
1972-2015 is the record hottest 44-calendar-year period globally.
1971-2015 is the record hottest 45-calendar-year period globally.
1970-2015 is the record hottest 46-calendar-year period globally.
1969-2015 is the record hottest 47-calendar-year period globally.
1968-2015 is the record hottest 48-calendar-year period globally.
1967-2015 is the record hottest 49-calendar-year period globally.
1966-2015 is the record hottest 50-calendar-year period globally.
1965-2015 is the record hottest 51-calendar-year period globally.
1964-2015 is the record hottest 52-calendar-year period globally.
1963-2015 is the record hottest 53-calendar-year period globally.
1962-2015 is the record hottest 54-calendar-year period globally.
1961-2015 is the record hottest 55-calendar-year period globally.
1960-2015 is the record hottest 56-calendar-year period globally.
1959-2015 is the record hottest 57-calendar-year period globally.
1958-2015 is the record hottest 58-calendar-year period globally.
1957-2015 is the record hottest 59-calendar-year period globally.
1956-2015 is the record hottest 60-calendar-year period globally.
1955-2015 is the record hottest 61-calendar-year period globally.
1954-2015 is the record hottest 62-calendar-year period globally.
1953-2015 is the record hottest 63-calendar-year period globally.
1952-2015 is the record hottest 64-calendar-year period globally.
1951-2015 is the record hottest 65-calendar-year period globally.
1950-2015 is the record hottest 66-calendar-year period globally.
1949-2015 is the record hottest 67-calendar-year period globally.
1948-2015 is the record hottest 68-calendar-year period globally.
1947-2015 is the record hottest 69-calendar-year period globally.
1946-2015 is the record hottest 70-calendar-year period globally.
1945-2015 is the record hottest 71-calendar-year period globally.
1944-2015 is the record hottest 72-calendar-year period globally.
1943-2015 is the record hottest 73-calendar-year period globally.
1942-2015 is the record hottest 74-calendar-year period globally.
1941-2015 is the record hottest 75-calendar-year period globally.
1940-2015 is the record hottest 76-calendar-year period globally.
1939-2015 is the record hottest 77-calendar-year period globally.
1938-2015 is the record hottest 78-calendar-year period globally.
1937-2015 is the record hottest 79-calendar-year period globally.
1936-2015 is the record hottest 80-calendar-year period globally.
1935-2015 is the record hottest 81-calendar-year period globally.
1934-2015 is the record hottest 82-calendar-year period globally.
1933-2015 is the record hottest 83-calendar-year period globally.
1932-2015 is the record hottest 84-calendar-year period globally.
1931-2015 is the record hottest 85-calendar-year period globally.
1930-2015 is the record hottest 86-calendar-year period globally.
1929-2015 is the record hottest 87-calendar-year period globally.
1928-2015 is the record hottest 88-calendar-year period globally.
1927-2015 is the record hottest 89-calendar-year period globally.
1926-2015 is the record hottest 90-calendar-year period globally.
1925-2015 is the record hottest 91-calendar-year period globally.
1924-2015 is the record hottest 92-calendar-year period globally.
1923-2015 is the record hottest 93-calendar-year period globally.
1922-2015 is the record hottest 94-calendar-year period globally.
1921-2015 is the record hottest 95-calendar-year period globally.
1920-2015 is the record hottest 96-calendar-year period globally.
1919-2015 is the record hottest 97-calendar-year period globally.
1918-2015 is the record hottest 98-calendar-year period globally.
1917-2015 is the record hottest 99-calendar-year period globally.
1916-2015 is the record hottest 100-calendar-year period globally.
1915-2015 is the record hottest 101-calendar-year period globally.
1914-2015 is the record hottest 102-calendar-year period globally.
1913-2015 is the record hottest 103-calendar-year period globally.
1912-2015 is the record hottest 104-calendar-year period globally.
1911-2015 is the record hottest 105-calendar-year period globally.
1910-2015 is the record hottest 106-calendar-year period globally.
1909-2015 is the record hottest 107-calendar-year period globally.
1908-2015 is the record hottest 108-calendar-year period globally.
1907-2015 is the record hottest 109-calendar-year period globally.
1906-2015 is the record hottest 110-calendar-year period globally.
1905-2015 is the record hottest 111-calendar-year period globally.
1904-2015 is the record hottest 112-calendar-year period globally.
1903-2015 is the record hottest 113-calendar-year period globally.
1902-2015 is the record hottest 114-calendar-year period globally.
1901-2015 is the record hottest 115-calendar-year period globally.
1900-2015 is the record hottest 116-calendar-year period globally.
1899-2015 is the record hottest 117-calendar-year period globally.
1898-2015 is the record hottest 118-calendar-year period globally.
1897-2015 is the record hottest 119-calendar-year period globally.
1896-2015 is the record hottest 120-calendar-year period globally.
1895-2015 is the record hottest 121-calendar-year period globally.
1894-2015 is the record hottest 122-calendar-year period globally.
1893-2015 is the record hottest 123-calendar-year period globally.
1892-2015 is the record hottest 124-calendar-year period globally.
1891-2015 is the record hottest 125-calendar-year period globally.
1890-2015 is the record hottest 126-calendar-year period globally.
1889-2015 is the record hottest 127-calendar-year period globally.
1888-2015 is the record hottest 128-calendar-year period globally.
1887-2015 is the record hottest 129-calendar-year period globally.
1886-2015 is the record hottest 130-calendar-year period globally.
1885-2015 is the record hottest 131-calendar-year period globally.
1884-2015 is the record hottest 132-calendar-year period globally.
1883-2015 is the record hottest 133-calendar-year period globally.
1882-2015 is the record hottest 134-calendar-year period globally.
1881-2015 is the record hottest 135-calendar-year period globally.
1880-2015 is the period of record.
Quoting 21. hydrus:

The low pressure area that will be responsible for the major storm is wrapping up in that region..The center is over the TX Panhandle....




WHOA. That's one mosh pit of weather, that is.
"This system caught our region off guard" Traffic is stuck in place with multiple accidents in and around the city.Mayor is not trying to take responsibility.
Quoting 41. Qazulight:



https://www.coursera.org/learn/analytics-excel

I just dropped out. I didn't understand the test after the lecture. So I dropped out. I will restart after I complete Khan Academy Calculus and Statistics.

I finished Python for Informatics, and Interactive Python and history of the Internet.
So backed up to regroup and recommence your studies with coursera...Edison use to say failure is the finger pointing you to success....I didnt like all he said, but that line was decent...:)
Quoting 44. nonblanche:



WHOA. That's one mosh pit of weather, that is.
Just wait until it gets a nice shot of gulf juice and subtropical jet energy..Then the best, as the pressure falls like a lead brick off the Eastern Seaboard..Stacked nice too, makes it healthy and strong to grow big and powerful...Hope it does not stall , thats bad.
JanetElizabeth ‏@JanetScanlon 4m4 minutes ago
@capitalweather 66 West is a parking lot right at rosslyn. Hasn't moved in an hour. I would suggest taking 29

Cristina Marcos ‏@cimarcos 5m5 minutes ago
Officially the WORST commute home I've ever had. What's normally a 10 min drive took 2 hours and 10 mins. #dcsnow
Quoting 45. washingtonian115:

"This system caught our region off guard" Traffic is stuck in place with multiple accidents in and around the city.Mayor is not trying to take responsibility.


You want a public official to take responsibility? Especially the Mayor?

I hear the beltway is known tonight as the slip and slide way.
Quoting 45. washingtonian115:

"This system caught our region off guard" Traffic is stuck in place with multiple accidents in and around the city.Mayor is not trying to take responsibility.
Lol..It is only his job to warn the citizens in his area of authority about any type of impending danger...This includes weather...
42. DCSwithunderscores
3:02 AM GMT on January 21, 2016

According to data from NASA:
2015 is the record hottest calendar year globally.


Yep...This warming stuff is great for winter storms...Wait until hurricane season..4 or 5 major hurricanes making landfall on low lying highly populated areas with sea levels rising.....I like to think positive..can you tell.?
Thanks for the update guys! Let me know when the El-Nino Jet is coming back to Soo Cal!
Quoting 50. hydrus:

Lol..It is only his job to warn the citizens in his area of authority about any type of impending danger...This includes weather...


IMHO - THAT IS WRONG. A Mayor is supposed to get his or her departments organized and authorized to handle the impending crisis... The Mayor is the leader of the city/county. When stuff doesn't get done correctly in the City/County the MAYOR gets kicked out or not re-elected. Unless the DC Mayor is just a figure head and some sort of council or commission has all the power.

Even if the Mayor has to get/solicit permission from the governor to use emergency funds or get a state of emergency declared.

Bottom line, there is a lot a Mayor can do.
Let It Snow..........Let It Snow........Let It Snow!
Well good times, accident close into DC has shut down I-66W (entrance from 29 for locals), people are getting out of their cars and walking apparently.
Quoting 54. Dakster:



IMHO - THAT IS WRONG. A Mayor is supposed to get his or her departments organized and authorized to handle the impending crisis... The Mayor is the leader of the city/county. When stuff doesn't get done correctly in the City/County the MAYOR gets kicked out or not re-elected. Unless the DC Mayor is just a figure head and some sort of council or commission has all the power.

Even if the Mayor has to get/solicit permission from the governor to use emergency funds or get a state of emergency declared.

Bottom line, there is a lot a Mayor can do.


Does that apply to Flint Michigan or is that a different issue where all the folks are after the governor?
Quoting 52. Patrap:

@JimCantore 30 min ago. Latest preferred low tracks shows classic lower 48/gulf low (friday) transfer to east coast low (saturday)

I,ve got a ten spot that says thats exactly how it goes down..I,ve got another ten that sez the central pressure gets into the low 970,s...any takers.?
Capital Weather Gang %u200F@capitalweather 5m5 minutes ago
Steady light snow continues near i95, in DC & east. Duration surprising. May take another hour or so to clear.
Quoting 48. washingtonian115:

JanetElizabeth ‏@JanetScanlon 4m4 minutes ago
@capitalweather 66 West is a parking lot right at rosslyn. Hasn't moved in an hour. I would suggest taking 29

Cristina Marcos ‏@cimarcos 5m5 minutes ago
Officially the WORST commute home I've ever had. What's normally a 10 min drive took 2 hours and 10 mins. #dcsnow

Im betting there will be a lot of sick day calls Thursday and Friday!
Quoting 53. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Thanks for the update guys! Let me know when the El-Nino Jet is coming back to Soo Cal!
just a little break is all

Quoting 62. washingtonian115:

Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather 5m5 minutes ago
Steady light snow continues near i95, in DC & east. Duration surprising. May take another hour or so to clear.



Were it I.......I would be having a 4 day weekend.
Quoting 54. Dakster:



IMHO - THAT IS WRONG. A Mayor is supposed to get his or her departments organized and authorized to handle the impending crisis... The Mayor is the leader of the city/county. When stuff doesn't get done correctly in the City/County the MAYOR gets kicked out or not re-elected. Unless the DC Mayor is just a figure head and some sort of council or commission has all the power.

Even if the Mayor has to get/solicit permission from the governor to use emergency funds or get a state of emergency declared.

Bottom line, there is a lot a Mayor can do.
Evening DAK...Did you read my comment thoroughly.?..I was saying exactly that..It is his or her job to warn the citizens in his area of influence...Of any danger , whether it be weather or chicken pox epidemic....
Quoting 62. washingtonian115:

Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather 5m5 minutes ago
Steady light snow continues near i95, in DC & east. Duration surprising. May take another hour or so to clear.

36. snow2fire

Yes very much so. I will base it on the safety of those driving to the event and the status of the park we are using that connects to the American Tobacco Trail. NO way will we do the usual walk. But we have a covered shelter (look up Solite Park in Durham).

I hope by 9pm tomorrow we will have a good idea of the rain line.

I did make the call to have the porta-potty delivered tomorrow. From a company in Burlington.

If we make it a "go" will you attend? :)
Quoting 27. sar2401:

Ah, OK, but, other than wind, not a lot of sensible weather changes due to the developing low. Looks like the WAA and speed of the low will spare the TX Panhandle from anything other than some rain showers before the low rockets off to the SE.
Dont feel left out, the low is goin to give you some nice , windy, severe weather too...A tornado or two even...They love to spin up at night and move inland.
Quoting 62. washingtonian115:

Capital Weather Gang %u200F@capitalweather 5m5 minutes ago
Steady light snow continues near i95, in DC & east. Duration surprising. May take another hour or so to clear.



This really over performed we weren't forecast to get up to an inch and I have over that here. Light snows keep backfilling to the west.
Quoting 66. hydrus:

Evening Drak...Did you read my comment thoroughly.?..I was saying exactly that..It is his or her job to warn the citizens in his area of influence...Of any danger , whether it be weather or chicken pox epidemic....


Dak != Drak
Quoting 67. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Even I thought this would be clear in 20 mins when i looked at radar like an hour and change ago.
Lil something before our ice and snow event..Possible thunderstorms..



1/00Z. FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE CSV THRU AT LEAST 21/06Z.
EXPECT FREEZING FOG FORMATION AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH DENSE FREEZING
FOG BEING POSSIBLE...BNA/CSV 21/03Z-21/15Z...AND IFR FOG CKV. VSBYS
AND CEILINGS SHOULD BOTH IMPROVE TO MVFR BY AROUND 21/18Z...AS THE
POTENTIAL OF LIGHT SHWRS SPREADS SW TO NE ACROSS MID STATE. ENOUGH
ATM INSTABILITY COULD BE IN PLACE FOR SOME ISO TSTMS 21/18Z-21/24Z...
BUT WITH DEVELOPMENTAL LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES..
.WILL MENTION VCTS
REMARKS ONLY...AS LIGHT SHWRS SHOULD AT LEAST PREVAIL. NE TO E SFC
WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS GENERALLY EXPECTED THRU 21/24Z.


&&
If dc can't handle this snow....
Quoting 72. Drakoen:



Dak != Drak
Sorry...I,m whooped..I should call it a night..
Quoting 64. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

just a little break is all




It's been over Nor Cal for 11 storms which is great! Our biggest water storage reservoir Shasta Lake has risen from 29% full capacity to 41% today.......all good and great. Even our 2nd largest Lake Oroville is rising as well. In Soo Cal we have had 6 storms with 4 at my location having combined rainfall totals of less than 1/2". The other 2 storms were awesome with combined totals of just under 5". So January has been about average in Soo Cal for rain totals. I am getting antsy and want either that yellow/red colored portion of that jet pointed at Pt Conception for extended periods in Feb and March, as Central-Soo Cal- Central/Southern Sierra's are below normal on rain and snow. Great for our water storage thus far but need to share the hose a little bit more than it has recently.
Quoting 51. hydrus:

42. DCSwithunderscores
3:02 AM GMT on January 21, 2016

According to data from NASA:
2015 is the record hottest calendar year globally.


Yep...This warming stuff is great for winter storms...Wait until hurricane season..4 or 5 major hurricanes making landfall on low lying highly populated areas with sea levels rising.....I like to think positive..can you tell.?


I am just wondering if that warm water stacking up on the Eastern Seaboard becuase of the Glaciers melting in Greenland will throw the models off. It would be one thing to get a Cat 5 running up the coast, quite another for it to be unexpected.
Atlanta > DC

GFS time
Quoting 75. vdb0422:

If dc can't handle this snow....


Much less volume this weekend and more prep. Should be "fine"
Quoting 80. GeorgiaStormz:

Atlanta > DC

GFS time
I spy a NW shift, still early though.
Quoting 71. Drakoen:



This really over performed we weren't forecast to get up to an inch and I have over that here. Light snows keep backfilling to the west.
This is just the beginning of a long weekend..Doug Kammerer thinks we'll have another inch from this clipper.Good bands set up over the D.C area.

Capital Weather Gang %u200F@capitalweather 2m2 minutes ago
Coating to 2" have fallen across region. Totals from NWS:
Out to 78hrs on the GFS 00z looks like 20-24 inches. A bit less than previous with the deformation banding setting up more to the west and south.
Quoting 82. 1Zach1:

I spy a NW shift, still early though.


I didn't rly see the shift anymore once it hit the coast. But the low evolution is back redevelopment near the benchmark like the NAM and old solutions. We'll see. Operational could outpace Ensembles soon as the high resolution becomes more and more critical

Mean while..

I like Levi's adjustments to the hi res nam low reflectivity scale. Much more natural and filled

2015 might be the new year deniers will claim global warming stopped. It looks like the perfect cherry for them to pick going forward...except UKMET says 2016 is liable to be warmer.

Oh, well, they can always start over again next year.
Just watched local met WRAL. No clarity. He's doing his best.


clips boston too
Lol.The CMC says everyone in the immediate area gets almost 3 feet
Quoting 93. washingtonian115:

Lol.The CMC says everyone in the immediate area gets almost 3 feet



That is incredible
GFS 00z run the QPF distribution looked unnatural compared to previous runs. The 500mb low progression would have brought higher totals farther east.
spinning up nicely

Quoting 96. Drakoen:

GFS 00z run the QPF distribution looked unnatural compared to previous runs. The 500mb low progression would have brought higher totals farther east.
That's what I was thinking.
Quoting 89. GeorgiaStormz:

I like Levi's adjustments to the hi res nam low reflectivity scale. Much more natural and filled


I'm sure his site is also getting hammered with everyone looking at model runs but, so far, it seems to working without a hitch. Much to his credit for what's basically a one-man show too.
Quoting 100. sar2401:

I'm sure his site is also getting hammered with everyone looking at model runs but, so far, it seems to working without a hitch. Much to his credit for what's basically a one-man show too.


You are correct. He tweeted that during the 0z GFS run tonight, his website had the most simultaneous viewers its ever experienced.
UKMET 00z. Absolutely crushed.

Quoting 91. violet312s:

Just watched local met WRAL. No clarity. He's doing his best.
If this helps any, the position of the stationary front shown on the current map is probably a good idea of the route the low will take until it hits the Atlantic.

Quoting 102. Drakoen:

UKMET 00z. Absolutely crushed.


How does it look snow total wise?
Quoting 104. Tornado6042008X:

How does it look snow total wise?


I would wait for the meteogram but it looks to be around 2 feet out to 72 hr, with more on the way.
Quoting 101. CarolinaHurricanes87:



You are correct. He tweeted that during the 0z GFS run tonight, his website had the most simultaneous viewers its ever experienced.
Levi has done an outstanding job bringing together almost any model you'd want to see or use in one place and in a consistent format. Analyzing models used to be quite the chore what with having to use 8 or 10 different sites, all of which used different formats for model display. Levi not only makes it easy to see each model, he makes it dead easy to compare run to run and model to model changes. I know I'd wouldn't be anywhere near as aware of what models are doing without the resources on his site - and that doesn't even count tropical weather, the original focus of the site.
DCA meteogram from the UKMET which only goes out to 72 hrs:

Quoting 79. Qazulight:



I am just wondering if that warm water stacking up on the Eastern Seaboard becuase of the Glaciers melting in Greenland will throw the models off. It would be one thing to get a Cat 5 running up the coast, quite another for it to be unexpected.
I think it's already started. Joaquin was a good example, with every single model but one having completely the wrong path for that hurricane. None of them had the intensity right. We'll see more of these model fails until the mets and programmers are able to get these new forcings in the models - and it's assuming they are really able to do that.
Not sure I'm doing this quote part right but yes, I'm feeling antsy too and have been waiting patiently for the firehose to aim south of Point Conception. I was sure February was going to send it but each model run tells me another dry story about SOCAL. Waiting....

.
Quoting 77. HurricaneHunterJoe:



It's been over Nor Cal for 11 storms which is great! Our biggest water storage reservoir Shasta Lake has risen from 29% full capacity to 41% today.......all good and great. Even our 2nd largest Lake Oroville is rising as well. In Soo Cal we have had 6 storms with 4 at my location having combined rainfall totals of less than 1/2". The other 2 storms were awesome with combined totals of just under 5". So January has been about average in Soo Cal for rain totals. I am getting antsy and want either that yellow/red colored portion of that jet pointed at Pt Conception for extended periods in Feb and March, as Central-Soo Cal- Central/Southern Sierra's are below normal on rain and snow. Great for our water storage thus far but need to share the hose a little bit more than it has recently.
Quoting 107. Drakoen:

DCA meteogram from the UKMET which only goes out to 72 hrs:


Still a very sharp cutoff of snow to the north. Bounce that orange ball 50 miles either way and a whole bunch of forecasts get thrown into the wind. Man, I'm glad I'm not having to figure this out for a living. Someone's going to look like a genius and someone's going to be the goat before this is over.
Quoting 109. GROOVEDERCI:

Not sure I'm doing this quote part right but yes, I'm feeling antsy too and have been waiting patiently for the firehose to aim south of Point Conception. I was sure February was going to send it but each model run tells me another dry story about SOCAL. Waiting....

.
Now is not the time to get antsy. Wait until President's Day Weekend. If there's no firehose by then, start to get antsy. I spent a lot of time floating around in various California floods rescuing the unprepared and recalcitrant between MLK Day and President's Day over a period of almost 30 years. In almost every case, I was getting antsy before they hit. :-)

EDIT: You did fine on the quote thing too.
Sterling Radar, Composite View


Quoting 57. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Does that apply to Flint Michigan or is that a different issue where all the folks are after the governor?


yes - although Michigan decided they didn't need oversight, because the government was over reaching... and now look, you can't even drink the water. I do hold Michigan government accountable for that and other disasters.

Things changed and the State (and Feds) cleaned up Lake Eerie... The "dead lake"... So you can't tell me that good leadership can't make a difference.

I have family that live in Michigan and have been there for a long time... I joke with them about the state motto of "Pure Michigan"...

Stay safe those of you getting dumped on with snow. Drive as safe as you can.
Goodmorning everyone, I only got about 0.5" of snow this evening at my residence in Pittsylvania County, VA. However, it looks like a big mess this weekend. I've heard everything from 12-25 inches for my area. Was hoping for a lot of snow but no so much when I had to work.lol
Quoting 70. hydrus:

Dont feel left out, the low is goin to give you some nice , windy, severe weather too...A tornado or two even...They love to spin up at night and move inland.
Yes, whatever this becomes, it will be another nighttime event. This what Birmingham has to say in the HWO. I'm in the area south of the line -

THERE IS A CHANCE OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...HAIL...AND A
FEW TORNADOES FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THESE THREATS WILL
DEVELOP THURSDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
TUSCALOOSA...TO CLANTON...TO UNION SPRINGS. THE THREATS WILL
GENERALLY BEGIN AROUND 9 PM WEST...AND END BY 7 AM FRIDAY IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
Quoting 112. Patrap:

Sterling Radar, Composite View





Amazing. Bone dry here in Lancaster, PA, Dewpoint at 14, 60% humidity. The radar has had snow returns over us, but has to be virga, not a single flake getting to the surface.
The next one in the Pipeline I believe will bring you some.
Quoting 17. sar2401:

What's happening in Texas? I just got back in from a day of furniture moving and hadn't heard of any problems in Texas.


I live in Texas. Some will see that as being a problem.
Quoting 106. sar2401:

Levi has done an outstanding job bringing together almost any model you'd want to see or use in one place and in a consistent format. Analyzing models used to be quite the chore what with having to use 8 or 10 different sites, all of which used different formats for model display. Levi not only makes it easy to see each model, he makes it dead easy to compare run to run and model to model changes. I know I'd wouldn't be anywhere near as aware of what models are doing without the resources on his site - and that doesn't even count tropical weather, the original focus of the site.


2005 was a huge pain in the ass with all the links we had to scour. Levi has made things tremendously easier and kept it free. That is the biggest thing because lots of sites tried to charge for a lot of the things he is doing now.
Quoting 117. Patrap:

The next one in the Pipeline I believe will bring you some.


I know, State College says that the MINIMUM is one inch, so we'll get it. I'm hoping for a foot+ though. Our in house met posted this: Link (10-16" for those who don't click the link, but it's a regional view of his thoughts)
Keep Have you been getting any snow lately?
Quoting 122. Dakster:

Keep Have you been getting any snow lately?
no just cold but we get the next system tuseday and another one after that too ring in groundhog day
Quoting 106. sar2401:

Levi has done an outstanding job bringing together almost any model you'd want to see or use in one place and in a consistent format. Analyzing models used to be quite the chore what with having to use 8 or 10 different sites, all of which used different formats for model display. Levi not only makes it easy to see each model, he makes it dead easy to compare run to run and model to model changes. I know I'd wouldn't be anywhere near as aware of what models are doing without the resources on his site - and that doesn't even count tropical weather, the original focus of the site.



I honestly forget it's TROPICAL tidbits - it's my go to wx site. Long gone are the days of twisterdata.com and mag.ncep.noaa.gov and the difficult-to-use wunderground wundermap (which I use only for ECMWF data now)
Quoting 16. violet312s:

I really wish Dr. Masters and Bob Henson would not have posted a new entry about a topic un-related to the impending major storm. Their entry contains lots of good information that should be reviewed and discussed.

However, most of the folks posting tonight are concerned with the monster storm approaching. As am I.

Perhaps they can re-post it during a quieter time. Just my two cents. Then again, it is their blog.


Hi, Violet. We appreciate the feedback! It's been a challenge juggling the blog this week. Obviously the snowstorm is top on people's minds. At the same time, today's 2015 global climate report was front-page news around the world, given its remarkable results, so it seemed inappropriate to delay our post on it. Rest assured we'll now be focusing on the snowstorm until the threat has passed.

There is one more 2015 climate roundup that we're saving for next week--the list of all-time national record highs from around the world--so that will give everyone a chance to return to this topic once the dust (or snow!) has settled.
need to see the 00z euro...
Quoting 128. watchingnva:

need to see the 00z euro...


Not special, looks like NWS grids, OTS to the east as before.
To Bob & Jeff,
Thanks for the recent updates. Nice of you to put in the extra mile on your slow time!
I am happy that you guys have branched out beyond your original plan on this being a tropical only blog.
Joining in 2005 at the height of tropical insanity, it's nice to read about other weather problems as well.
Guess his server upgrade before the 2015 hurricane system is doing well. 1000+ to Levi! (or should I say Levi32?)


Quoting 100. sar2401:

I'm sure his site is also getting hammered with everyone looking at model runs but, so far, it seems to working without a hitch. Much to his credit for what's basically a one-man show too.
Good night blog, procrastination is bad. Very bad. As long as I can survive my 8 am tomorrow, I'll make it.

Quoting 100. sar2401:

I'm sure his site is also getting hammered with everyone looking at model runs but, so far, it seems to working without a hitch. Much to his credit for what's basically a one-man show too.


And I'm responsible for some of that traffic as I've recommended it to all my weather friends at school...they all use it, lol.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
STORM WARNING
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 03-20152016
10:00 AM RET January 21 2016
==================================
Northeast of Rodrigues Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 03R (996 hPa) located at 15.3S 74.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west southwest at 10 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
==============
120 NM radius from the center, extending up to 300 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 320 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 330 NM in the northeastern quadrant with gale force winds in this quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS: 16.7S 73.3E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 18.3S 72.0E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 21.9S 71.0E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 25.4S 72.5E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
================
Over the last 6 hours, the cloud pattern has clearly improved with the emergence of a curved band, becoming better and better defined. At 0600Z, this band is wrapping around a good half of the circulation center, which is worth T=2.5 in Dvorak analysis. 0340Z and 0430Z ASCAT swaths cover the eastern half of the circulation and show winds ranging from 30 kt up to 35 kt, even reaching locally 40 kt. This suggests Dvorak analysis could be underestimating the system intensity. On the satellite imagery, the upper level clouds suggest that two evacuation channels are progressively appearing, one in the north and one in the south.the system is currently tracking west southwestward.

For the next 24 hours, it is likely to move southwestward, over the northwestern edge of the low to mid-tropospheric ridge. While remaining under a cell of upper level high geo-potentials, the system should deepen without any particular environmental constraints.

On Thursday to Friday night, with a poleward upper level outflow channel, ahead of a polar trough, the low will draw benefit from good upper level environmental conditions and deepen quite rapidly. Consequently, it should be steered by the mid-level ridge in its east, and track southwestward on Friday, and bend south to south southeastward on Saturday.

From Sunday or Monday, ahead of an upper trough, the northwesterly vertical wind shear should increase and the ocean heat content decrease south of 27.0S. The low may weaken and begin an extratropical transition from Sunday evening. The weakened system may move temporarily westward over the northern side of the subtropical anticyclone building in its south.

This forecast is based on the available numerical weather prediction models, in rather good agreement.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #32
HURRICANE WARNING
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR, CATEGORY THREE (08F)
18:00 PM FST January 21 2016
=============================
South of Niue
East of Nukuʻalofa (Tonga)

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING for Niue is now CANCELLED

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Victor, Category Three (970 hPa) located at 22.0S 170.1W has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots. Position poor based on hourly GOES infrared imagery. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 3 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
==============
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=============
60 NM from the center in northern semi-circle
120 NM from the center in southern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
=============
140 NM from the center in northern semi-circle
240 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
200 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Eye cloud filled. Deep convection remains persistent. Cloud tops warming past 3 hours. Organization remains good. Outflow good. Sea surface temperature is around 26-27C. System lies under a strong upper divergence region in a low to moderate sheared environment. System is tracking west southwest due to the sub-tropical ridge located to the south. Dvorak analysis based on embedded center pattern with low level circulation center embedded in MG yields DT=4.0, MET=4.0, PT=4.0. Final Dvorak intensity based on MET.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.5/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===================
12 HRS: 22.1S 171.6W - 60 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 22.5S 173.2W - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 25.2S 175.1W - 50 knots (CAT 2)
SREF with some strong trends...
Kentucky will take a hit, and the Carolina's..



Most of the South African heat records broken in December have once again been obliterated, often by 2-3°C, this January.
And 'Tigerhoek' should be 'Tijgerhoek' -- the station is near the town of Riviersonderend.
Quoting 142. stefaanCPT:

Most of the South African heat records broken in December have once again been obliterated, often by 2-3°C, this January.
Should see more of the extreme weather...It is occurring on a regular basis around the world...Blows my mind
This has me a bit worried (the winds for Saturday)

"Windy. Rain and snow in the morning will transition to mainly rain in the afternoon. High 37F. Winds NE at 40 to 60 mph. Chance of precip 100%. Snow accumulating 1 to 3 inches. Winds could occasionally gust over 80 mph"
Good morning, and thanks for thorough update on 2015, Doc and Bob. I think the coverage of upcoming Jonas is intense in here anyway ;-)

This Winter Storm Could Set Coastal Flood Records
Climate Central, Published: January 20th, 2016
The chatter about this weekend’s snowstorm has reached a fever pitch. And while snow total maps are de rigueur for any weather site worth its road salt, it’s the coastal flood impacts that could also go down in the record books and drive major damage.
Areas north and west of Washington, D.C. are under a blizzard watch from Friday afternoon through late Saturday. The National Weather Service is warning of “potential life threatening conditions” due to strong winds and heavy snow. Parts of the Washington, D.C. area could receive up to of 3 feet of snow, putting this storm in the record books and paralyzing travel in the area.
Hurricane Hunters are planning to survey the storm on Thursday while local National Weather Service offices around the U.S. are launching extra weather balloons, all in an effort to gather more data to feed into forecasts in the coming days. The intense efforts underscore just how serious this storm is and fears that it could end up ranking among the biggest and most costly storms to ever hit the region.
While the snow is certainly the most notable and visual phenomenon, parts of the East Coast could also face a major storm surge event that could wreak havoc and up the damage. The fact that the storm is slow moving and showing up during the highest tides of the month means prolonged flooding is possible, particularly around the Chesapeake Bay and parts of New Jersey and Long Island. The National Weather Service Mount Holly, N.J. office, which covers the Jersey Shore and Philadelphia, is already anticipating a top 5 coastal flood event. ...

More see link above.

Wow, indeed, recon is going to be out:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 201715
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1215 PM EST WED 20 JANUARY 2016
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JANUARY 2016
WSPOD NUMBER.....15-051

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. A66/DROP 8 (26.5N 95.0W) / 22/0000Z
B. AFXXX 03WSA TRACK66
C. 21/2000Z
D. 10 AS SPECIFIED IN THE NWSOP
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE / 22/0200Z

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE TRACK A65
WITH A CONTROL TIME OF 23/0000Z.

$$
WJM
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
321 AM EST Thu Jan 21 2016

Valid 12Z Thu Jan 21 2016 - 12Z Sat Jan 23 2016

...Significant winter storm to affect a region stretching from the Ozarks
to the Mid-Atlantic through early Saturday...

...Severe weather is possible across the central/eastern Gulf coasts...

...Heavy rainfall will spread along the West Coast...


Water vapor imagery early this morning showed an upper trough moving
through the Central Plains. This system is expected to strengthen rather
markedly as it dips down into the southern U.S. and eventually lifts
northward reaching the Carolinas by Saturday morning. The initial surface
low which tracks across the Tennessee valley will give way to deepening
coastal low. This latter feature takes over and becomes a dominant force
in setting up heavy snow bands over the Mid-Atlantic and very gusty winds.
With all that said, the National Weather Service hazards page displays a
winter storm watch stretching from the Tennessee valley into the interior
Carolinas and up into the Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic region. Even a
blizzard watch is in effect across the Washington, D.C. metro area along
with adjacent locations. The current forecast indicates high snowfall
totals are possible from Kentucky eastward into the Southern/Central
Appalachians and across the Mid-Atlantic. Many of these locations will be
measuring the snow in feet, particularly from Washington, D.C. and
Baltimore back into the higher terrain of West Virginia and Virginia.
While there is a lot of focus on the heavy snow and blizzard conditions,
significant icing is likely to the south. The current forecast calls for
at least 0.10 inches of ice accumulations from southeastern Missouri
across southern Kentucky and over much of the western/central Carolinas.
For the latest information on this developing winter storm, please view
the heavy snow/ice discussion (QPFHSD) issued by the WPC winter weather
desk.

Given the robust nature of the closed low tracking along southern tier of
the nation, an active period of thunderstorms is expected over much of the
central/eastern Gulf coasts. Many of these storms may become severe per
the latest convective outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. The
forecast on Thursday suggests an enhanced risk of severe storms with
tornadoes being a likely threat from far southeastern Texas across
southern Louisiana/Mississippi, and into the far western Florida
Panhandle. This convective threat will slide eastward by the following day
as the upper low accelerates to the east.
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
511 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016

VALID 12Z THU JAN 21 2016 - 12Z SUN JAN 24 2016


DAYS 1 THROUGH 3...

...WEST...

HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ANOMALOUSLY FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE INTERIOR
TO FORM A SHARP UPPER RIDGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON THU. AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PAC WILL ATTEMPT TO
ADVANCE DOWNSTREAM ON THU... AS AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE TRIES
TO REACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CA. THE SOUTHERLY
TRAJECTORY OF PACIFIC MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL SPELL HEAVY
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WA CASCADES. THEN ON FRI... THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE DOWNSTREAM... THE SYSTEM REACHING THE WEST
COAST ON THU WILL SHEAR INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... WHILE
ANOTHER VERY FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROLL INTO
NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND OREGON. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY SNOW FOR THE SIERRA.

...LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH TN/SOUTHERN OH VALLEYS INTO MID-ATL
STATES AND NORTHEAST...

PHASING MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO SPUR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER
MS VALLEY THU EVENING. THIS IS FORECAST TO MARK THE ONSET OF WHAT
IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR THE REGION AND IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE EASTERN U.S. FROM
THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST.

PHASING SHORTWAVES OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO
ESTABLISH AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH WITH A MID-UPPER CENTER CLOSING OFF
OVER THE REGION BY FRI MORNING. STRONG LOW LEVEL INFLOW AHEAD OF
THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE WILL DIRECT ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
OVER A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD WINTRY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER
OHIO VALLEYS THU NIGHT INTO FRI. BOLSTERED BY FAVORABLE UPPER JET
FORCING AND LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING
AN INCREASING INDICATION FOR AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWS ACROSS
KENTUCKY AND EASTERN TENNESSEE.

BY LATE FRI AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND TRACK TO THE
EAST...THE PARENT SURFACE LOW THEN MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...WITH ENERGY TRANSFERRING TO A
LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION AFFORDED BY AMPLIFYING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTERACTING
WITH COLD AIR DAMMING WITH ENSURE WIDESPREAD FROZEN PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...WITH HEAVY SNOW LIKELY FURTHER TO THE
NORTH. FAVORABLE UPPER JET FORCING...LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
ALONG WITH OROGRAPHIC FORCING ARE EXPECTED TO RAISE THE
PROBABILITY OF HEAVY AMOUNTS ALONG THE VA/MD PIEDMONT BACK INTO
THE BLUE RIDGE LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT.

BY EARLY SAT THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ITS TRACK NORTH ALONG
THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH A WELL-DEFINED COMM-AHEAD MOVING
FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.

WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT AT LEAST SOME PORTIONS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE IMPACTED WITH VERY HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...CONFIDENCE IN ITS PLACEMENT HAS BEEN TEMPERED BY
MODEL SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING/TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
EUROPEAN MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK FASTER AND PAINT HEAVIER AMOUNTS
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN THE NCEP MODELS. THE WPC FORECAST WAS
LARGELY COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.

PEREIRA
Quoting 145. JerseyShoreGirl:

This has me a bit worried (the winds for Saturday)

"Windy. Rain and snow in the morning will transition to mainly rain in the afternoon. High 37F. Winds NE at 40 to 60 mph. Chance of precip 100%. Snow accumulating 1 to 3 inches. Winds could occasionally gust over 80 mph"
Morning J-Girl..I lived in Barnegat for a while during the 1970,s. We lost our grandparents house on the bay in Dec of 1992. Suffice it to say, this is a large and powerful system, almost every dynamic is in place to bring a crippling blizzard , and it may not leave in a hurry like some past storms. There still a spread discrepancy, but not much. Forward speed and movement is raising more eyebrows. Naturally, the longer its parked near the east coast, the longer dangerous conditions will persist. Watch close to the experts, make arrangements in case you lose power. Check everything you may need if the roads are closed. I do not know where exactly your located, but surge will probably be an issue, especially at high tide..Most of all stay safe..:)
Quoting 150. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Morning Keep..I dont think I,ve seen the models this consistent for such a long period of time...Some long standing records could fall from this storm.
looks as if its too be a power house of a storm that's for sure

we will see how it evolves today and tonight

gonna be interesting for sure
Quoting 153. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

looks as if its too be a power house of a storm that's for sure

we will see how it evolves today and tonight

gonna be interesting for sure
There actually sending a recon flight. If its out of Biloxi, the fuel bill should not be to high..:)
Quoting 149. hydrus:

Morning J-Girl..I lived in Barnegat for a while during the 1970,s. We lost our grandparents house on the bay in Dec of 1992. Suffice it to say, this is a large and powerful system, almost every dynamic is in place to bring a crippling blizzard , and it may not leave in a hurry like some past storms. There still a spread discrepancy, but not much. Forward speed and movement is raising more eyebrows. Naturally, the longer its parked near the east coast, the longer dangerous conditions will persist. Watch close to the experts, make arrangements in case you lose power. Check everything you may need if the roads are closed. I do not know where exactly your located, but surge will probably be an issue, especially at high tide..Most of all stay safe..:)


I am in skirts of Barnegat (I can see the lighthouse out of the kitchen window). I remember the storm of 92, I was living in Point Pleasant. That is the storm I watched a corner of a section of condos roof lift, slam back down and back up and off it went. So many homes get destroyed in these storms. The snow is not what bothers me... its the winds and surge!

I will prepare as it is very likely we will be without power with these forecast winds and heavy wet snow. I've been through many storms living here on the coast, and I've learned it is no joke to not pay attention (that is why I am here this morning) and to PREPARE.

Good luck to all in the path of the storm! Please if you feel those wind forecasts are accurate keep up the good work with the models because some of us rely on them!
High tides between Baltimore and New York are around 1 am and 1 pm Saturday, 2 am/pm Sunday. Full moon occurs Saturday night.
JSG, born in PPB. I was away for 92 and Sandy but these storms can be rough. Our family had one of the original beach houses on Ocean Ave built by my grandfather. It is still there. Of course built like a fortress. Models have been consistent. Expect the worst, hope for the best.

In SC the dreaded ice looks to be paying me a visit. Again...

Stay safe.

Quoting 159. JerseyShoreGirl:



I am in skirts of Barnegat (I can see the lighthouse out of the kitchen window). I remember the storm of 92, I was living in Point Pleasant. That is the storm I watched a corner of a section of condos roof lift, slam back down and back up and off it went. So many homes get destroyed in these storms. The snow is not what bothers me... its the winds and surge!

I will prepare as it is very likely we will be without power with these forecast winds and heavy wet snow. I've been through many storms living here on the coast, and I've learned it is no joke to not pay attention (that is why I am here this morning) and to PREPARE.

Good luck to all in the path of the storm! Please if you feel those wind forecasts are accurate keep up the good work with the models because some of us rely on them!
If it keeps trending even just a little more south when it transitions offshore, Florence,SC and vicinity may be back in the ice. Deja vu 2014. Potential for a lot more wind this time.

Quoting 153. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

looks as if its too be a power house of a storm that's for sure

we will see how it evolves today and tonight

gonna be interesting for sure
Here is the ETSS tide predictions for the NJ shore. They take the observed water levels plus the predicted tide and surge to produce their forecast. It is not 100% accurate especially with nor'easters but..





Quoting 159. JerseyShoreGirl:



I am in skirts of Barnegat (I can see the lighthouse out of the kitchen window). I remember the storm of 92, I was living in Point Pleasant. That is the storm I watched a corner of a section of condos roof lift, slam back down and back up and off it went. So many homes get destroyed in these storms. The snow is not what bothers me... its the winds and surge!

I will prepare as it is very likely we will be without power with these forecast winds and heavy wet snow. I've been through many storms living here on the coast, and I've learned it is no joke to not pay attention (that is why I am here this morning) and to PREPARE.

Good luck to all in the path of the storm! Please if you feel those wind forecasts are accurate keep up the good work with the models because some of us rely on them!
Andean glaciers dry, lead to evaporation of lakes [Link]
165. 900MB
Quoting 163. smog00:

Here is the ETSS tide predictions for the NJ shore. They take the observed water levels plus the predicted tide and surge to produce their forecast. It is not 100% accurate especially with nor'easters but..








Do you have the chart for the Battery? Rumor has it flooding may come close to the subways.
Also, what do the abbreviations on the left margin, like "hat" stand for?
Good Morning all. Only received about 1/8" in Western Fairfax last night, roads weren't bad for me this morning. Sad to see so many people were stuck on the roads last night and either never made it home or barely made it home to just turn around and go back to work. Looking forward to see if the models keep to a SW snow slot like the NAM and GFS last night.
Here is the chart for the Battery and I linked the site.



ETSS


Quoting 165. 900MB:



Do you have the chart for the Battery? Rumor has it flooding may come close to the subways.
Also, what do the abbreviations on the left margin, like "hat" stand for?

Quoting 165. 900MB:

Also, what do the abbreviations on the left margin, like "hat" stand for?
HAT: Highest Astronomical Tide
MHHW: Mean Higher High Water
MSL: Mean Sea level
MLLW: Mean Lower Low Water
169. 900MB
Quoting 167. smog00:

Here is the chart for the Battery and I linked the site.



ETSS





Thanks! What does "Hat" mean?
In regards to P-type across Central NC

PRECIPITATION RATES AND INTENSITY WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS
AND THE SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. THE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT ONLY INCREASE MOISTURE AND LIFT
BUT ALSO DRIVE WARM ABOVE FREEZING AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE INTO THE EASTERN PIEDMONT CHANGING AN INITIAL SURGE OF
SNOW AND SLEET TO MORE FREEZING RAIN AND SOME SLEET WITH
ADDITIONAL WARMING IN THE COASTAL PLAIN CHANGING THE PTYPE TO
FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN TOWARD MIDDAY. ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE TRIAD...THE SNOW WILL HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE DAY RESULTING
IN SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS NORTH OF I-40. STRONG COLD AIR
DAMMING SUPPORTED BY WET BULB TEMPERATURES THAT ARE TRENDING EVEN
COLDER WILL ALLOW THE COLD AIR DAMMING TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN NEAR
AND WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 1. SURFACE WARMING WILL PENETRATE NORTH AND
WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE FREEZING/MELTING POINT THE TRIANGLE AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT BY
DARK CUTTING OFF ADDITIONAL FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION. ITS WORTH
NOTING THAT SOME GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE ECMWF...KEEP BOUNDARY
LAYERS TEMPS SUBFREEZING INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN WESTERN PARTS
OF THE TRIANGLE RESULTING IN POTENTIALLY EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANT
FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS.
Well.. It's a balmy 23 degrees with no wind. Time to slip on the thinsulate gloves and hat and head out the door. No mittens or mad bomber hat today! And this will be the last walk to work for two weeks. Driving to Fayettville AR tommorow and will be in Nacogdiches TX Saturady.

Short sleeve shirts and Cotten for two weeks.

Cheers
Qazulight
Good Morning Folks; the current look and forecast for Conus. It's gonna get nasty out there over the next two days as this Winter low deepens.

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

Put together a self-updating blog focusing on the Western North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina area (GSP NWS area).

Sunrise at the Pisgah Astronomical Research Institute is looking spectacular this morning..
Quoting 41. Qazulight:



https://www.coursera.org/learn/analytics-excel

I just dropped out. I didn't understand the test after the lecture. So I dropped out. I will restart after I complete Khan Academy Calculus and Statistics.

I finished Python for Informatics, and Interactive Python and history of the Internet.


Calc is fun, stats not so much
And the forecast; the upside is the the West Coast is getting plenty of rain and snowpack from this El Nino which should really help with reducing the recent drought issues:

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
321 AM EST Thu Jan 21 2016

Valid 12Z Thu Jan 21 2016 - 12Z Sat Jan 23 2016

...Significant winter storm to affect a region stretching from the Ozarks
to the Mid-Atlantic through early Saturday...

...Severe weather is possible across the central/eastern Gulf coasts...

...Heavy rainfall will spread along the West Coast...


Water vapor imagery early this morning showed an upper trough moving
through the Central Plains. This system is expected to strengthen rather
markedly as it dips down into the southern U.S. and eventually lifts
northward reaching the Carolinas by Saturday morning. The initial surface
low which tracks across the Tennessee valley will give way to deepening
coastal low. This latter feature takes over and becomes a dominant force
in setting up heavy snow bands over the Mid-Atlantic and very gusty winds.
With all that said, the National Weather Service hazards page displays a
winter storm watch stretching from the Tennessee valley into the interior
Carolinas and up into the Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic region. Even a
blizzard watch is in effect across the Washington, D.C. metro area along
with adjacent locations. The current forecast indicates high snowfall
totals are possible from Kentucky eastward into the Southern/Central
Appalachians and across the Mid-Atlantic. Many of these locations will be
measuring the snow in feet, particularly from Washington, D.C. and
Baltimore back into the higher terrain of West Virginia and Virginia.
While there is a lot of focus on the heavy snow and blizzard conditions,
significant icing is likely to the south. The current forecast calls for
at least 0.10 inches of ice accumulations from southeastern Missouri
across southern Kentucky and over much of the western/central Carolinas.
For the latest information on this developing winter storm, please view
the heavy snow/ice discussion (QPFHSD) issued by the WPC winter weather
desk.

Given the robust nature of the closed low tracking along southern tier of
the nation, an active period of thunderstorms is expected over much of the
central/eastern Gulf coasts. Many of these storms may become severe per
the latest convective outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. The
forecast on Thursday suggests an enhanced risk of severe storms with
tornadoes being a likely threat from far southeastern Texas across
southern Louisiana/Mississippi, and into the far western Florida
Panhandle. This convective threat will slide eastward by the following day
as the upper low accelerates to the east.

A broad, deep upper trough positioned over the western U.S. will foster
the development of abundant rainfall along the immediate coast. Regions of
enhanced orographic lift can expect the highest totals which includes the
Shasta, Sierra Nevada, Olympics, and Washington Cascades. Given the strong
Pacific influence of this air mass, snow should generally concentrate over
the highest elevations of the West.


Rubin-Oster


Current U.S. Drought Monitor
CFSv2 continuing to hint a El-Nino rebuilding come Fall. This is very interesting to see on the CFSv2 because if you look @ the Indian Ocean it is showing a -IOD so kind of hard to believe but its worth posting as it was the CFSv2 which took charge @ this time last year showing the 2015/2016 Winter El-Nino.

And finally, the enhanced convective outlook from SPC along the Northern Gulf Coast for today. Have to see how this unfolds today; awaiting real time reports from Patrap later today...........................

It is very possible that we have entered a several year period of a relatively warm ENSO same as what happened in the early 1990's (1990-1993). So those jumping on the La-Nina bandwagon may need to hold on for a while because relative warm ENSO years feature high PDO which we have seen consistently for over 2 years now.
Exciting "good morning" story from frozen northern Europe:
Underwear-clad Norway man foils theft in -17C (1,4F)
The Local (Norway), Published: 21 Jan 2016 08:34 GMT+01:00
A car thief in Norway got more than he bargained with when the vehicle's owner, dressed only in his underwear, clung heroically to the vehicle's roof in temperatures of -17C to foil the theft.
In a scene worthy of a Hollywood movie, a 25-year-old Norwegian man was woken on Tuesday night by the unwelcome sound of his car's engine starting up, police reported. ...

More see link above.
182. beell
Last 4 runs of the GFS and NAM
180 hr Forecast P-Type


01/20 12Z GFS (left), 12Z NAM (right)


01/20 18Z GFS (left), 18Z NAM (right)


01/21 00Z GFS (left), 00Z NAM (right)


01/21 06Z GFS (left), 06Z NAM (right)
(click for larger images)
Quoting 182. beell:

Last 4 runs of the GFS and NAM
180 hr Forecast P-Type


01/20 12Z GFS (left), 12Z NAM (right)


01/20 18Z GFS (left), 18Z NAM (right)


01/21 00Z GFS (left), 00Z NAM (right)


01/21 06Z GFS (left), 06Z NAM (right)
(click for larger images)


Interesting as GFS has dramatically lowered snowfall amount across NJ and eastern MD. I wonder if this is due to a change over to rain due to the strong onshore flow bringing warm air into eastern MD and even into parts of the DC metro. Also GFS has trended toward the Euro with pulling the heaviest snowfall totals back into Virginia and NC.

Virginia Terry McAuliffe declares a State of Emergency ahead of major winter storm this weekend
GFS totals for snow went from 18" to 6" in NJ. Also Easterside of DC totals dropped from 20 plus inches to 12" to 16". Also seeing a change over to rain in some places.

I mean look at this. GFS did not show this in its earlier runs.

Quoting 184. 1Zach1:

Virginia Terry McAuliffe declares a State of Emergency ahead of major winter storm this weekend


He should as I said from the jump its VA that is going to take the brunt of this storm.
Quoting 178. tampabaymatt:




The severe threat won't be as high this time, and you can see why, the upper system is further north, and thus the surface low will be too.

However, the southern stream is remaining robust over FL, and this will allow for strong upper divergence, which mean rain chances and rainfall coverage will still be above average compared to a typical front, and moisture return will also be continued deeper than average ahead of this system as it has been. So strong thunderstorms and heavy rain are a good but, but it looks like too low of instability and not impressive enough dynamics will keep the severe threat down.

To me, dynamics and shear are enough for still a marginal risk such that one or two cells could go severe in terms of isolated severe gust or a tornado.
I think the blog should note that warm ENSO years like what we experienced during the early 1990's featured BIG TICKET weather events across the SE US up to New England. Let me start it off by telling you what happened. March 1992 EPIC hailstorms ravaged C FL with over 3' of hail in Altamonte Springs, Southern US Thanksgiving Tornado Outbreak in November 1992, and then came the Hail Mary of the all folks the Superstorm of March 13th, 1993.

So if you think it is looking active now well this same set up that occurred in the early 1990's may infact be playing itself out now.
Looks that way as far as snow goes, but we've got a lottery of severe weather, wind, ice and coastal flooding to impact much of the eastern US. Wow.

Quoting 186. StormTrackerScott:



He should as I said from the jump its VA that is going to take the brunt of this storm.
Quoting 187. Jedkins01:



The severe threat won't be as high this time, and you can see why, the upper system is further north, and thus the surface low will be too.

However, the southern stream is remaining robust over FL, and this will allow for strong upper divergence, which mean rain chances and rainfall coverage will still be above average compared to a typical front, and moisture return will also be continued deeper than average ahead of this system as it has been. So strong thunderstorms and heavy rain are a good but, but it looks like too low of instability and not impressive enough dynamics will keep the severe threat down.

To me, dynamics and shear are enough for still a marginal risk such that one or two cells could go severe in terms of isolated severe gust or a tornado.


Tornado risk is very low Jed but we will need to watch for damaging winds from any organized thunderstorms that develop due to the strong upper air dynamics as a result of stronger surface low over Alabama early Friday.


Quoting 187. Jedkins01:



The severe threat won't be as high this time, and you can see why, the upper system is further north, and thus the surface low will be too.

However, the southern stream is remaining robust over FL, and this will allow for strong upper divergence, which mean rain chances and rainfall coverage will still be above average compared to a typical front, and moisture return will also be continued deeper than average ahead of this system as it has been. So strong thunderstorms and heavy rain are a good but, but it looks like too low of instability and not impressive enough dynamics will keep the severe threat down.

To me, dynamics and shear are enough for still a marginal risk such that one or two cells could go severe in terms of isolated severe gust or a tornado.


Ruskin is not too impressed with severe thunderstorm chances for tomorrow's event, and neither is the SPC. However, Ruskin notes that we can't take our guard down with the subtropical jet screaming over FL. I'm at 2.68" for the month, and the official Tampa reporting station is at 2.97", but most of W C FL and SW FL are above these numbers. As long as the severe threat is low, I say bring the rain on.
192. beell
Quoting 183. StormTrackerScott:



Interesting as GFS has dramatically lowered snowfall amount across NJ and eastern MD. I wonder if this is due to a change over to rain due to the strong onshore flow bringing warm air into eastern MD and even into parts of the DC metro. Also GFS has trended toward the Euro with pulling the heaviest snowfall totals back into Virginia and NC.





01/21 03Z SREF 850 mb Temps (0°C isotherm indicated by alternating red/blue contour).
Valid @ 54 hrs



01/21 03Z SREF 2m Temp (0°C isotherm also indicated)
Valid @ 54 hrs


It may be better than it looks but WAA will always be a factor along the coast at least. A lot of moisture with this storm. The profile should cool pretty quick. Some mixed slop for some in the areas you mentioned.

Quoting 192. beell:




01/21 03Z SREF 850 mb Temps (0°C isotherm indicated by alternating red/blue contour).
Valid @ 54 hrs



01/21 03Z SREF 2m Temp
Valid @ 54 hrs


It may be better than it looks but WAA will always be a factor along the coast at least. A lot of moisture with this storm. The profile should cool pretty quick. Some mixed slop for some in the areas you mentioned.




My issue is 60 to 80 mph gust over SST's are are about as warm as you will ever see this time of year this is why from the get go I suspected the heaviest snow will be more in Virginia and even in NC due to strong NNW winds driving snow across much of that state.

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
STORM WARNING
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE CORENTIN (03-20152016)
16:00 PM RET January 21 2016
==================================
Northeast of Rodrigues Island

At 12:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Corentin (990 hPa) located at 15.8S 74.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 9 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=============
100 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 230 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
==============
120 NM radius from the center, extending up to 300 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 320 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 330 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS: 17.5S 72.5E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 19.4S 71.2E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 23.2S 70.5E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 26.6S 72.6E - 60 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)

Additional Information
================
Over the last 6 hours, convective clouds summits have warmed, probably because of the diurnal cycle. In the meantime, a cloud band has spread in the southern semi-circle, while wrapping around the center. At 0900z, the system has been upgraded to the moderate tropical storm stage and named Corentin by the Meteorological National Service of Mauritius. The low level center is still difficult to locate precisely but its structure is improving. 0344z and 0430z ASCAT swaths cover the eastern half of the circulation and show winds ranging from 40-45 kt, on a significant part of the circulation. The upper level divergence is impressive on the equatorial side and well illustrated by the cirrus clouds. This analysis is taking into account the ASCAT wind data and is a little bit higher than Dvorak analysis alone.

Over the next 24 hours, Corentin is likely to track southwestward, over the northwestern edge of the low to mid-tropospheric ridge. While remaining under a cell of upper level high geopotentials, the system should deepen steadily without any particular environmental constraints.

Tomorrow, with the strengthening of the upper level outflow channel on the southern side, ahead of a polar trough, the low could draw benefit from even better upper level environmental conditions and deepen quite rapidly. Consequently, it should be steered by the mid-level ridge in its east, and track southwestward on Friday, then bend south to south southeastward on Saturday.

From Sunday, ahead of an upper trough, the northwesterly vertical wind shear should increase and the ocean heat content decrease south of 27.0S. The low may weaken and begin an extratropical transition from Sunday evening. The weakened system may move temporarily westward over the northern side of the subtropical anticyclone building in its south.

This forecast is based on the available numerical weather prediction models, in rather good agreement.
Quoting 191. tampabaymatt:



Ruskin is not too impressed with severe thunderstorm chances for tomorrow's event, and neither is the SPC. However, Ruskin notes that we can't take our guard down with the subtropical jet screaming over FL. I'm at 2.68" for the month, and the official Tampa reporting station is at 2.97", but most of W C FL and SW FL are above these numbers. As long as the severe threat is low, I say bring the rain on.


Local meteorologist here keep repeating that this "will not be a repeat of the previous storms." We should see some storms and they could have some gusty winds, but that's about it. They keep repeating that no severe weather is expected.


from the neural model......


Data in tabular format for the Nino3.4 SSTA predicted for the next four seasons:
FMA 2016 1.46 ºC
MJJ 2016 0.34 ºC
ASO 2016 -0.25 ºC
NDJ 2016-17 -0.58 ºC

The Peninsula of Florida has an advancing rain/cloud shield that may help keep heating instability down but the Northern Gulf coast is clear at the moment so instability due to afternoon heating issues, and the warmer Gulf flow in advance of the front later this afternoon, could makes thing rather bumpy. Don't know about the tornadic threat but severe storms and straight line winds will be an issue later today/early evening:

Southern Mississippi Valley sector loop

From the Miami NWS Disco...

FOR FRIDAY, WITH THE INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWER,
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE. HOWEVER, THIS LOW WILL
TRACK MUCH FURTHER TO THE NORTH THAN THE PREVIOUS LOWS HAVE. ALSO,
THERE WILL BE A JET IN THE AREA, BUT LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL
AFFECT AREAS FURTHER. THERE IS A NEGLIGIBLE, 40 KTS 850MB JET IN
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA AS WELL. HELICITY VALUES ARE ALSO
ON THE LOW SIDE, SITTING BETWEEN 100 AND 200. THERE IS SOME 500MB
PVA TO SOUTH, LIKELY TO HELP ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE KEYS MID
DAY FRIDAY. ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE CLOUD COVER, WHICH LOOKS TO BE
ABUNDANT ON FRIDAY. IF IT IS, AS FORECAST, THEN IT WILL INHIBIT
DIURNAL HEATING, HELPING TO REDUCE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SO, RIGHT NOW, MOSTLY SHOWERS, WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY.
THINKING, WHICH SEEMS TO GO ALONG WITH SPC, IS THAT THEY WILL BE
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG ONES.

HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL THE MATTER OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODELS
ARE INDICATING THERE COULD BE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH, AS THE LOW
MAY WANT TO SPLIT AND JUMP TO THE COAST, OFF OF SOUTH CAROLINA BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY TO THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, ALLOWING FOR A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE WIND FORECAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT, A LINE THAT DOES
FORM, MAY HAVE SOME STRONG GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. BUT, STILL
THINKING BELOW SEVERE THRESHOLDS FOR NOW, ALTHOUGH THAT COULD
CHANGE IF THE FORECAST TRACK CHANGES SOME.

Link
The mostly snow to mostly rain transition occurs over tens of miles in NC.

1/4 to 1/2 inch ice + snow + sleet for Raleigh. That will shut things down for sure...

from scripps.......


still ugly for california......


Quoting 199. snow2fire:

The mostly snow to mostly rain transition occurs over tens of miles in NC.

1/4 to 1/2 inch ice + snow + sleet for Raleigh. That will shut things down for sure...



There is no way to determine where the transition lines will be this far in advance. Past history and models can get it in the ballpark, but the details will not be clear until the event starts.

.25 to .5"+ freezing rain and 30 mph wind gusts will be very ugly!
12z NAM has the low hugging the coast more than the 06z did.
The GFS shows another plume of >0.C air making its way to the North Pole next Wednesday. If it comes to pass as it did a few weeks ago, the North Pole will literally be warmer than some stations in places such as Arkansas, Tennessee, and central Mexico:



The Arctic anomalies will, again, be off the charts:


Plus winds. If the forecast verifies, expect power outages and blocked roads. Any snow will be heavy and sticky, followed by freezing rain. Let us hope it does not verify.

Quoting 199. snow2fire:

The mostly snow to mostly rain transition occurs over tens of miles in NC.

1/4 to 1/2 inch ice + snow + sleet for Raleigh. That will shut things down for sure...


Quoting 205. Neapolitan:

...the North Pole will literally be warmer than some stations in places such as Arkansas, Tennessee, and central Mexico:


Are you not confusing temperature anomaly with absolute temperature in the second graphic?
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #33
STORM WARNING
TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR, CATEGORY TWO (08F)
0:00 AM FST January 22 2016
=============================
Southwest of Niue
Southeast of Fua'amotu (Tonga)

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Victor, Category Two (975 hPa) located at 22.0S 171.7W has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots. Position poor based on hourly GOES infrared imagery. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 5 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
40 NM from the center in northern semi-circle
100 NM from the center in southern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
=============
100 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
240 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
200 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
80 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Deep convection has decreased with cloud tops warming past 6 hours. Organization has also decreased slightly. Outflow good. Sea surface temperature is around 26C. System lies under a strong upper divergence region in a moderate sheared environment. System is tracking west-southwest due to the sub-tropical ridge located to the south. Dvorak analysis based on shear pattern with low level circulation center about 1/3 degree from strong temperature gradient yields DT=3.5, MET=3.0, PT=3.5. Final Dvorak intensity based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/4.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===================
12 HRS: 22.2S 173.3W - 55 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 22.8S 174.9W - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 29.0S 176.1W - 45 knots (CAT 1) Out of Area of Responsibility
209. vis0
NOT AN OFFICIAL WxU WARNING those warning are on Wundergrounds warning pages the following is my caring souls advice

Folks in the hard hit areas make sure nothing will cause snow to build on your roofs THIS INCLUDING BUSINESSES AND SPECIALLY FLAT TOP ROOFS.

WHY?

SHRT REPLY:: Its going to be wetter snow when drier snow would be expected so if one thought you'd see 15 inches of dry snow  you might see 15 inches of HEAVIER wet snow.  IN A SHORT PERIOD (24hrs))

LOOONG REPLY::Remember when science or i stated that any dramatic rise in  added energy as aGW or El Nio and in this year(S) case both that weather systems via Nature will choose how  this extra energy is put out / doled out / presented into your life.

It can be faster storms, strong storms, lower lasting storms, sudden shifting storms and many more manifestations. 
In other words more energy content and one of those energy content elements is water.
Now you've heard that the drier the snow the higher the snowfall total as in lets say its wet snow and there is an inch of water to be converted to drier snow and lets say that will turn into 16 inches of dry snow fall, while if it where wet snow  "only" 7 inches might fall.

  NOW imagine that nature decides that the extra energy in this LOW is in transferring more efficiently wet snow (via long fetches of 50 mph winds), so instead of having 6 inches of wet snow in 24 hrs its 10 inches OF WET SNOW or 15 inches of WET SNOW in a short time.  THIS IS not just 4 to 11 more inches its almost TWO TIMES  MORE weight in a short periods SO CLEAR ANYTHING ON THE ROOFS that would cause the blowing snow to be retained toward your roofs DO IT CAREFULLY you have 8-12 daylight  hrs.

For sar2401 & Barbamz its translated some majeekal device explanation on my zilly pg blog pg.6 cmmnt#281 (pssst hover over the dot before "6" its a link shhhh)
Feeling good about the prospects of severe weather for the central Gulf Coast today. After weeks of boring weather, hopefully something finally happens here, lol.

Water vapor imagery shows considerable drying of the column on the backside of the upper low over the Kansas/Missouri area, with a secondary upper low over northwest Texas contributing to the formation of a surface low. If we can get some decent surface heating via periodic breaks in sunshine (which visible satellite images and my backyard observations suggest), we could get some pretty decent lapse rates here.

Sorry New Englanders, but I'll worry about the snow aspect after I've had the convective side of this. xD
Quoting 207. AdamReith:



Are you not confusing temperature anomaly with absolute temperature in the second graphic?



I was wondering the same thing.
Went grocery shopping for some last minute things yesterday night.They were sold out of a lot of poultry along with beef and lamb.Their were only a few things of milk left and the bread was picked over (thankfully the selection I get their was still two left).It is only going to get worst today at the grocery store but I have did my shopping so no need to go stir crazy.We're ready (I'm getting new flash light batteries just in case though).





NOAA’s National Weather Service to host news conference on impending winter storm

Posted January 20, 2016

National Weather Service Director, Louis Uccellini, Ph.D., will host a news conference tomorrow at 1:00 p.m. ET to announce the latest winter storm forecast and preparations taking place for the impending winter storm for the Eastern U.S. He also will discuss the state of forecasting and weather modeling, followed by a Q&A session.
WHAT:
News conference on impending winter storm
WHEN:
Thursday, Jan. 21, 2016

Media arrival: 12 noon ET
News conference: 1:00 p.m. ET
For the New York tri-state area-

... Winter storm and blizzard preparedness information...

Winter storm and blizzard watches has been posted for much of the
tri-state area. This means hazardous winter weather
conditions... such as heavy snow and blizzard conditions due to winds
of 35 mph or higher with snow and blowing snow reducing visibility
to less than 1/4 mile for at least 3 hours... may affect the area
in the next 24 to 48 hours... but its occurrence... location and
timing are still uncertain.

Stay tuned to NOAA all hazards weather radio... your local
media... or visit our web site at... weather.Gov/NYC as this watch
may be upgraded to a warning.

Before the storm strikes... be prepared.

At home or work the following items should to be available...

* flashlights and extra batteries.

* Canned food and a manual opener... bottled water and essential
medications.

* A first aid kit.


* Sufficient heating fuel.


* A working fire extinguisher and smoke alarm.


* Salt and sand.


* A battery powered radio.

Make sure your pets have plenty of food... water and shelter.

Make sure your vehicle is fully checked and winterized. Carry a
winter storm survival kit including blankets... cell phone... a
flashlight with extra batteries... a shovel and a map.

If you become stranded in your vehicle... ensure the tail pipe is
clear... then stay inside... run the engine 10 minutes each hour for
heat... keep your window open to avoid Carbon monoxide
poisoning... and from time to time exercise body parts to keep
blood circulating and to keep warm. Tie a colored cloth to your
vehicle.

If caught outside... try to stay dry and cover exposed body parts.

For additional information on preparing for winter storms... please
visit... weather.Gov/NYC/winterweather.Html
Here is the current chart from Nola NWS on the weather threat for them today; looking like from the afternoon into the late evening:
Quoting 215. weathermanwannabe:

Here is the current chart from Nola NWS on the weather threat for them today; looking like from the afternoon into the late evening:



The NAM even suggests the potential for some discrete storms. All facets of severe weather are possible, but in my opinion the greatest threat is for large hail and isolated tornadoes.
Quoting 177. StormTrackerScott:

CFSv2 continuing to hint a El-Nino rebuilding come Fall. This is very interesting to see on the CFSv2 because if you look @ the Indian Ocean it is showing a -IOD so kind of hard to believe but its worth posting as it was the CFSv2 which took charge @ this time last year showing the 2015/2016 Winter El-Nino.


Last week it was showing a La nina and you didn't post anything about it.
Quoting 217. Gearsts:

Last week it was showing a La nina and you didn't post anything about it.
It is not apart of the agenda (as in El nino causing chaos in florida)
Quoting 217. Gearsts:

Last week it was showing a La nina and you didn't post anything about it.


Best way to monitor is ENSO is to do it in real-time; even the consensus is bad this time of year.

Climatology doesn't favor a second El Nino, though.
Quoting 207. AdamReith:

Are you not confusing temperature anomaly with absolute temperature in the second graphic?
Quoting 211. tampabaymatt:
I was wondering the same thing.
Not sure what you mean. The top graphic shows actual NH temperatures for next Wednesday; the bottom graphic shows NH temperature departures from average--that is, anomalies--for the same day and time. The North Pole will be warmer than Arkansas; it will also experience a (far) bigger temperature anomaly than Arkansas.
Quoting 220. Neapolitan:

Not sure what you mean. The top graphic shows actual NH temperatures for next Wednesday; the bottom graphic shows NH temperature departures from average--that is, anomalies--for the same day and time. The North Pole will be warmer than Arkansas; it will also experience a (far) bigger temperature anomaly than Arkansas.


But that map doesn't show the north pole being warmer than 0C
Quoting 220. Neapolitan:

Not sure what you mean. The top graphic shows actual NH temperatures for next Wednesday; the bottom graphic shows NH temperature departures from average--that is, anomalies--for the same day and time. The North Pole will be warmer than Arkansas; it will also experience a (far) bigger temperature anomaly than Arkansas.


I can see where the North Pole will have a much larger temperature anomaly, but I don't see how it will be warmer temp wise than Arkansas. There is a portion of the map near Greenland that looks to be similar in temp to Arkansas, but for the most part the Arctic is covered in blue and purple colors. It's entirely possible I'm missing something though. Regardless, if that is the case, it is truly exceptional and should really be pointed out as a significant newsworthy statistic.
223. vis0

Quoting 110. sar2401:

Still a very sharp cutoff of snow to the north. Bounce that orange ball 50 miles either way and a whole bunch of forecasts get thrown into the wind. Man, I'm glad I'm not having to figure this out for a living. Someone's going to look like a genius and someone's going to be the goat before this is over.
indubitably baaaaaad timing some might say

Max if such a storm (not necessarily this one) closed its LOW while still over warm waters (lets sat off NE Florida) and does it too quick to be called a TS AT the TIME,  does it count as a TS on ones prediction table on your pg?
el Nino-aGW - is throwing a monkey-wrench onto Max's charts.
205. Neapolitan
2:39 PM GMT on January 21, 2016

The GFS shows another plume of >0.C air making its way to the North Pole next Wednesday. If it comes to pass as it did a few weeks ago, the North Pole will literally be warmer than some stations in places such as Arkansas, Tennessee, and central Mexico:


If you like that, you,ll love what I found on one of the models for February...I,m swamped, but will post it ASAP.
Quoting 206. HaoleboySurfEC:

Plus winds. If the forecast verifies, expect power outages and blocked roads. Any snow will be heavy and sticky, followed by freezing rain. Let us hope it does not verify.




I was trying not to think about the wind too... :)

Last year, we got 1/10 inch ice and 3 in snow. Lost evergreen trees and power for several hours - had chance to set up generator power management etc. The trees I saved can't take another round of being folded over to the ground. It ain't looking good for this storm.

At this point, gotta prepare for no power for some period... freezing bulk water, stocking up food/water, check 2000W generator, get extra fuel, etc, etc. AARG ... good news is won't have to go far to find somewhere with power (once streets are passable).
226. RayT
Quoting 201. ricderr:

still ugly for california......




True. but if there is any good news its that California is really the only area in major dought. Texas is ok for once the midwest is fine. All we need is a decent rain to hit Cali and the country will be almost drought free.
227. MahFL
DC Mayor apologizes for last nights snow screw up. Good luck for tomorrow.....lol.
Quoting 192. beell:




01/21 03Z SREF 850 mb Temps (0°C isotherm indicated by alternating red/blue contour).
Valid @ 54 hrs



01/21 03Z SREF 2m Temp (0°C isotherm also indicated)
Valid @ 54 hrs


It may be better than it looks but WAA will always be a factor along the coast at least. A lot of moisture with this storm. The profile should cool pretty quick. Some mixed slop for some in the areas you mentioned.


S.O.S. The column is almost frigid above 850 mb's. Once the low is offshore, northerly winds over land will head south, erasing any warm air. I dont know why he even posts those charts.
Quoting 227. MahFL:
DC Mayor apologizes for last nights snow screw up. Good luck for tomorrow.....lol.
Like the snow was his fault? haahaha or was it more like- sorry folks, I don't pay attention to the weather.
Jeez he's got access to all the same info as everyone else, even us in Fla know the $#7#'s about to hit the proverbial fan.

If I can read Capital Weather Gang, so can he.
NAM 12z over 30 inches for DC.
231. MahFL
Lake Shasta did rise by 2 % just yesterday from rain and some mountain run off as temps warm over there slightly.

62% of Historical Avg. For This Date.
232. MahFL
Quoting 229. aquak9:

Like the snow was his fault?


The Mayor is female.

Quoting 230. Drakoen:

NAM 12z over 30 inches for DC.


12z GFS appears to be crushing DC as well.
Around 3 feet for the western DC suburbs on the GFS 12z. Models trending much more favorably wit the QPF.
"He" being used as a general term. Male, female, or somewhere in between- it STILL coulda/shoulda been maybe just a little more up-to-date on conditions in it's living area.

236. MahFL
Quoting 226. RayT:


All we need is a decent rain to hit Cali and the country will be almost drought free.


A lot of the rain is currently locked up in the mountains as snowpack. Come the spring thaw the countryside should moisten up some. I don't know exactly how they measure the drought though. Maybe someone can shed light on that ?
Quoting 222. tampabaymatt:



I can see where the North Pole will have a much larger temperature anomaly, but I don't see how it will be warmer temp wise than Arkansas. There is a portion of the map near Greenland that looks to be similar in temp to Arkansas, but for the most part the Arctic is covered in blue and purple colors. It's entirely possible I'm missing something though. Regardless, if that is the case, it is truly exceptional and should really be pointed out as a significant newsworthy statistic.
When I speak of the North Pole, I'm talking about that geographic point at 90N where the Earth's axis of rotation meets its surface, and not the Arctic in general. Now, the North Pole in those images is where the lines of longitude come together a bit north of Greenland. If you look closely at that image on the temperature graphic, you'll see that it's colored light blue at that point:



And if you look closely at the Arkansas portion of that same graphic, you'll see that parts of it are the same light blue as the North Pole--meaning it's the same temperature--while other parts (the Northwest part of the state) are of a darker blue than the North Pole, meaning it's colder:



Thus, my original comment stands. And, yes, it is indeed exceptional and noteworthy--especially given that it happened just a few weeks ago.
238. MahFL
Some good news though for the west :

"For most of the West, snowpack and snow water equivalent numbers are running above-normal to well above-normal in general. "
I don't know squat about the actual dynamics related to the configuration of the polar jet except the general notion that it usually demarcates the cooler air from the North with the warmer air to the South during Winter in the Northern Hemisphere. To the degree that we have a strong El Nino this year, and the resulting lower split-jet pattern, I can see (pursuant to the comment below as to the GFS next week) that if the pattern is right in any given stretch of time, that it can lead to an influx of warmer air toward the pole from the warmer Pacific basin in between the normal polar air shots in Winter.


Thank you for the tide charts.

Not looking to good (so far) for the Jersey coast with these winds. I truly hope the snow amounts stick to the low side of this forecast, and even more so praying that the winds are much less. Three days of those gusts will not be pretty.

Friday Night
Cloudy and becoming windy with snow showers becoming a steady accumulating snow later. Low 28F. NE winds at 10 to 20 mph, increasing to 25 to 35 mph. Chance of snow 100%. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected. Winds could occasionally gust over 50 mph.

Saturday
Windy. Rain and snow in the morning will transition to mainly rain in the afternoon. High 37F. Winds NE at 40 to 60 mph. Chance of precip 100%. Snow accumulating 1 to 3 inches. Winds could occasionally gust over 80 mph.

Saturday Night
Windy. Periods of rain and snow in the evening, becoming snow late. Low 28F. Winds NNE at 25 to 35 mph. Chance of precip 100%. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected. Winds could occasionally gust over 50 mph.
Year Dec
2001 54
2002 42
2003 72
2004 51
2005 67
2006 77
2007 49
2008 54
2009 65
2010 49
2011 53
2012 51
2013 66
2014 78
2015 112

That December global temperature anomaly is, in laymanspeak, a 'bit of a doozie'. It's fully 0.33C higher than the previous record anomaly, set in 2014 (NASA GISS). By contrast, the December record in the then record 1997/98 El Nino event was just 0.11C higher than the previous record.

Something's up.
Philly, burbs and much of Jersey is now under a blizzard watch.
Blizzard Smizzard... what's going in in NW Florida? Right??

Yesterday afternoon looked like this here:



This morning looked like this:

Just watched sunset and moonrise by the Alp webcams. Very beautiful. Here just two shots (for more here is the source with a selection; will be stunning later with the moon light; you can go back for hours or days or even animate the pics to show a whole day):





Here once again the cam on the summit of Bavarian Forest in Southeastern Germany with those beautiful snow-covered firs:


Click the pics to enlarge them. Weather is supposed to be milder next week, so not sure how long winter wonderland may last.
Edit: Map where the cams are located.
12Z GFS


06Z GFS


Appears to be a very slight northwest shift...very slight. Not near as far north and west as the NAM however.
248. vis0

Quoting 180. StormTrackerScott:

It is very possible that we have entered a several year period of a relatively warm ENSO same as what happened in the early 1990's (1990-1993). So those jumping on the La-Nina bandwagon may need to hold on for a while because relative warm ENSO years feature high PDO which we have seen consistently for over 2 years now.
NATURE:: Lets have both after all i have to use both extremes to clean the mess humans are making and please don't tell me i cannot create both during 1 natural year, look off the US east coast.  Watch me create snow with hurricane force winds.
PS washi115 keep up the "reverse psychology" on me, i enjoy it its fun.

Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather 19m19 minutes ago
Based on incoming model data, we may need to increase forecast snow totals. Stay tuned. Detailed update by noon.
Local TV stations probably emphasized the forecasted storm so much that any warnings about slick roads went over most people's heads. If you aren't a weather geek like a lot of us, a person wouldn't have the faintest idea that the weather setup, light snow & cooling road beds at rush hour, could lead to such a nasty commute.

Capital Weather summed it up this morning in a tweet.



I sent a text to a friend who works in Baltimore yesterday about the Fri/Sat storm, but not having read the NWS discussion that morning, I failed to warn her about the potentially horrid commute. It was a very local story, and obviously very under warned given its impact.

Quoting 229. aquak9:

Like the snow was his fault? haahaha or was it more like- sorry folks, I don't pay attention to the weather.
Jeez he's got access to all the same info as everyone else, even us in Fla know the $#7#'s about to hit the proverbial fan.

If I can read Capital Weather Gang, so can he.
Quoting 240. JerseyShoreGirl:

Thank you for the tide charts.

Not looking to good (so far) for the Jersey coast with these winds. I truly hope the snow amounts stick to the low side of this forecast, and even more so praying that the winds are much less. Three days of those gusts will not be pretty.

Friday Night
Cloudy and becoming windy with snow showers becoming a steady accumulating snow later. Low 28F. NE winds at 10 to 20 mph, increasing to 25 to 35 mph. Chance of snow 100%. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected. Winds could occasionally gust over 50 mph.

Saturday
Windy. Rain and snow in the morning will transition to mainly rain in the afternoon. High 37F. Winds NE at 40 to 60 mph. Chance of precip 100%. Snow accumulating 1 to 3 inches. Winds could occasionally gust over 80 mph.

Saturday Night
Windy. Periods of rain and snow in the evening, becoming snow late. Low 28F. Winds NNE at 25 to 35 mph. Chance of precip 100%. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected. Winds could occasionally gust over 50 mph.



That sounds nightmarish. Full moon too. Would spell coastal damage..
Quoting 205. Neapolitan:

The GFS shows another plume of >0.C air making its way to the North Pole next Wednesday. If it comes to pass as it did a few weeks ago, the North Pole will literally be warmer than some stations in places such as Arkansas, Tennessee, and central Mexico:



The Arctic anomalies will, again, be off the charts:




Oh No! Not Again!
They will be doing January swimming trips up there soon if this sort of thing continues?
Looks like a big ice storm for Charlotte, darn. Would prefer rain or snow but we always seem to get stuck with ice.
Quoting 229. aquak9:

Like the snow was his fault? haahaha or was it more like- sorry folks, I don't pay attention to the weather.
Jeez he's got access to all the same info as everyone else, even us in Fla know the $#7#'s about to hit the proverbial fan.

If I can read Capital Weather Gang, so can he.


Apologize? In my opinion whoever is running the Transportation department should be summarily fired. There is NO excuse for the idiocy that caused the traffic disaster last night. I was stuck in the miserable mess for 10 hours.

It doesn't take a !@%^ genius to figure out that if you have even an inch of snow and sub-freezing temperatures that road conditions would rapidly turn into a black-ice laden nightmare. You'd think the morons making these decisions would at least have a passing familiarity with what happened in Atlanta in 2014. But apparently the idiots making the calls have absolutely no idea what they're doing. They literally waited until all major roadways were shut down solid before sending out any salt/plow trucks. By then of course, the trucks just added to the problem since they couldn't move. Eventually they sent out police to to shut down the roads and escort the trucks so that they could lay down sand/salt on the roads.

It looked like an exaggerated car wreck scene from an over-the-top movie. The sides of the roads were literally strewn with disabled/dented vehicles from cars to big rigs. Vehicles couldn't make it up the hill at the 270 spur due to ice. I saw multiple fender benders as cars and trucks just slid into one another, unable to stop. At one point I witnessed a five vehicle sandwich take place as each vehicle, desperate top try and stop the slide, went sideways and hit the vehicle in front of them.

Incompetence, stupidity, or both. If anyone needed any additional incentive to stay home for the upcoming blizzard they had plenty last night. If the transportation authorities in these areas can't even handle a 1" snowfall properly, they're going to be worse than useless when 18"-36" coat the area.
Going to head out early today for the afternoon but it's going to be interesting as to how the low trajectories pan out (further north or south, etc.) in terms of the impacts in specific areas and totals relative to rain, snow, icing, etc. Similar to the cones of impact with tropical lows, one area can be really hard hit, an another spared, depending on the difference between a few hundred miles relative to the trajectory and broader synoptic environment on all sides in-front-and behind the low. this surface chart was issued around 9:30 this morning





254. Xyrus2000

Our Mayor in D.C said that she failed to put her salt trucks out there because "they only expected flurries" on roads that were 15 degrees! The city officials and others are to blame.What happened yesterday should have never happened.They underestimated the clipper and in the end the results were accidents and backed up traffic.
Quoting 254. Xyrus2000:



Apologize? In my opinion whoever is running the Transportation department should be summarily fired. There is NO excuse for the idiocy that caused the traffic disaster last night. I was stuck in the miserable mess for 10 hours.

It doesn't take a !@%^ genius to figure out that if you have even an inch of snow and sub-freezing temperatures that road conditions would rapidly turn into a black-ice laden nightmare. You'd think the morons making these decisions would at least have a passing familiarity with what happened in Atlanta in 2014. But apparently the idiots making the calls have absolutely no idea what they're doing. They literally waited until all major roadways were shut down solid before sending out any salt/plow trucks. By then of course, the trucks just added to the problem since they couldn't move. Eventually they sent out police to to shut down the roads and escort the trucks so that they could lay down sand/salt on the roads.

It looked like an exaggerated car wreck scene from an over-the-top movie. The sides of the roads were literally strewn with disabled/dented vehicles from cars to big rigs. Vehicles couldn't make it up the hill at the 270 spur due to ice. I saw multiple fender benders as cars and trucks just slid into one another, unable to stop. At one point I witnessed a five vehicle sandwich take place as each vehicle, desperate top try and stop the slide, went sideways and hit the vehicle in front of them.

Incompetence, stupidity, or both. If anyone needed any additional incentive to stay home for the upcoming blizzard they had plenty last night. If the transportation authorities in these areas can't even handle a 1" snowfall properly, they're going to be worse than useless when 18"-36" coat the area.


Wow, that must have sucked. It probably would have been better if there was a little more snow pack on the roads. Then snow tires would have something to bite into. A slight glazing of snow can be the worst for traction.
At least the storm is coming in mostly during the weekend. They should just tell everyone to stay home tomorrow to keep traffic to a minimum.
2016, the Year the Climate Forcing's Double down.



259. vis0

Quoting 229. aquak9:

Like the snow was his fault? haahaha or was it more like- sorry folks, I don't pay attention to the weather.
Jeez he's got access to all the same info as everyone else, even us in Fla know the $#7#'s about to hit the proverbial fan.

If I can read Capital Weather Gang, so can he.
i have a hunch its not the ability to get / see the forecast they must have some storm central headquerters that has every meteorologist within 50 miles plus national linkups.

i think its the "not thinking in a QUASI-scientific" manner and probably thinking lets save the brine or whatever is used there for light snow-ice accumulation instead  lets use it for the 12+ inches. If the politicians ask any person in the weather / science field or wxch-wxu fan they'll tell you use the brine now and tell people not to go out during the big storm as only plows can really remove anything over 4 inches.
re: post 254 Xyrus

Please, don't hold back. Tell us how you really feel.
Quoting 256. washingtonian115:

254. Xyrus2000

Our Mayor in D.C said that she failed to put her salt trucks out there because "they only expected flurries" on roads that were 15 degrees! The city officials and others are to blame.What happened yesterday should have never happened.They underestimated the clipper and in the end the results were accidents and backed up traffic.


Here in Charlotte they put down the salt and brine for yesterdays clipper and it was a complete waste. They'll put down more salt and more brine today and tomorrow, and it will again be a waste (washed away by rain before the frozen price starts). Government does nothing, people complain. Government spends too much money, people complain. Tough job.
Quoting 257. Sfloridacat5:



Wow, that must have sucked. It probably would have been better if there was a little more snow pack on the roads. Then snow tires would have something to bite into. A slight glazing of snow can be the worst for traction.
At least the storm is coming in mostly during the weekend. They should just tell everyone to stay home tomorrow to keep traffic to a minimum.
D.C has already announced that they will have schools closed tomorrow.A lot of school districts are closed today and will be closed again Friday.Government and Federal workers will be dismissed early but are encourage to telework.Other private sectors are encourage to do the same.So by the time the snow starts it won' turn into the disaster Wednesday was.
JUST GREAT!! 6:40pm game on Sunday..black ice..not a good day for travel on Sunday..

Brad Panovich Meteorologist
4 mins ·

Quick Winter Storm VLOG update: On way back now, and the storm is coming with me. The million dollar question is about of sleet vs ice vs rain vs snow. Ice and sleet are winning out right now. Be ready for a major ice storm around Charlotte.

(You can check out the video on his FB page)




Isobars tightly packed. Winds will be very bad..
Excellent report there, 254. Xyrus2000
I'm just wondering as I occasionally do what would happened if a person was in a 10 hour sub zero traffic jam in an electric car?
I can understand that in a petrol car you could keep tuning on the engine to warm the car up but what about 10 hours in an electric car and then to make things worse, what if the batteries were not fully charged to start with.
Have manufactures thought about these kinds of scenarios?
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION


12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES/FORECAST CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~

CYCLONE SWEEPING THROUGH THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...TRANSFERRING TO
COASTAL LOW SAT...TRACKING UP MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY SUN
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF/CMC BLEND
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE



This will update when the Euro comes in.
Quoting 265. hydrus:





Isobars tightly packed. Winds will be very bad..


Meanwhile, another dry tail end of a cold front goes through Soo Cal........Oh El Nino, why have you forsaken me so?
Quoting 256. washingtonian115:

254. Xyrus2000

Our Mayor in D.C said that she failed to put her salt trucks out there because "they only expected flurries" on roads that were 15 degrees! The city officials and others are to blame.What happened yesterday should have never happened.They underestimated the clipper and in the end the results were accidents and backed up traffic.
Hello Wash..I heard that there actually was a winter weather advisory put out yesterday morning. If thats true, then some of the folks likely knew that conditions were not good for driving...Either way, glad you prepared..it looks bad.
270. MahFL
Blizzard Warning now for DC.
271. MahFL
Quoting 266. PlazaRed:

Excellent report there, 254. Xyrus2000
I'm just wondering as I occasionally do what would happened if a person was in a 10 hour sub zero traffic jam in an electric car?
I can understand that in a petrol car you could keep tuning on the engine to warm the car up but what about 10 hours in an electric car and then to make things worse, what if the batteries were not fully charged to state with.
Have manufactures thought about these kinds of scenarios?


You'd die, depending on how much warm clothing you had with you...
Quoting 263. ncstorm:

JUST GREAT!! 6:40pm game on Sunday..black ice..not a good day for travel on Sunday..

Brad Panovich Meteorologist
4 mins ·

Quick Winter Storm VLOG update: On way back now, and the storm is coming with me. The million dollar question is about of sleet vs ice vs rain vs snow. Ice and sleet are winning out right now. Be ready for a major ice storm around Charlotte.

(You can check out the video on his FB page)


Are you coming to Charlotte for the game? I'm lucky I'm only an 8-10 minute walk from the stadium. Will be tough traveling for anyone further out! Be safe
Quoting 262. washingtonian115:

D.C has already announced that they will have schools closed tomorrow.A lot of school districts are closed today and will be closed again Friday.Government and Federal workers will be dismissed early but are encourage to telework.Other private sectors are encourage to do the same.So by the time the snow starts it won' turn into the disaster Wednesday was.


At home teleworking by the fireplace with a toddy sounds like the plan!
Quoting 266. PlazaRed:

Excellent report there, 254. Xyrus2000
I'm just wondering as I occasionally do what would happened if a person was in a 10 hour sub zero traffic jam in an electric car?
I can understand that in a petrol car you could keep tuning on the engine to warm the car up but what about 10 hours in an electric car and then to make things worse, what if the batteries were not fully charged to state with.
Have manufactures thought about these kinds of scenarios?


Maybe I'm missing something, but how would that be any different than the potential for a regular car to run out of gas?
Quoting 254. Xyrus2000:



It doesn't take a !@%^ genius to figure out that if you have even an inch of snow and sub-freezing temperatures that road conditions would rapidly turn into a black-ice laden nightmare.


Evidently it does take a genius! Sorry that was hard to resist.

I feel badly for you and all the other people that had to go through hours of frustration. Most of us have a hard time avoiding frustration if a store line is longer than 5 people. I can't imagine how anxiety ridden, scary and infuriating it must have been. I certainly understand the rant and hope that this weekend's mess will be much more fun than a nightmare for all.

If anyone has elderly (or less mobile) neighbors, I hope folks can find the time to check in on them and maybe drop off some emergency supplies ahead of time.

Good luck to you all!
Quoting 264. HurricaneHunterJoe:




you been reported mods sould remove this post
Quoting 254. Xyrus2000:



Apologize? In my opinion whoever is running the Transportation department should be summarily fired. There is NO excuse for the idiocy that caused the traffic disaster last night. I was stuck in the miserable mess for 10 hours.

It doesn't take a !@%^ genius to figure out that if you have even an inch of snow and sub-freezing temperatures that road conditions would rapidly turn into a black-ice laden nightmare. You'd think the morons making these decisions would at least have a passing familiarity with what happened in Atlanta in 2014. But apparently the idiots making the calls have absolutely no idea what they're doing. They literally waited until all major roadways were shut down solid before sending out any salt/plow trucks. By then of course, the trucks just added to the problem since they couldn't move. Eventually they sent out police to to shut down the roads and escort the trucks so that they could lay down sand/salt on the roads.

It looked like an exaggerated car wreck scene from an over-the-top movie. The sides of the roads were literally strewn with disabled/dented vehicles from cars to big rigs. Vehicles couldn't make it up the hill at the 270 spur due to ice. I saw multiple fender benders as cars and trucks just slid into one another, unable to stop. At one point I witnessed a five vehicle sandwich take place as each vehicle, desperate top try and stop the slide, went sideways and hit the vehicle in front of them.

Incompetence, stupidity, or both. If anyone needed any additional incentive to stay home for the upcoming blizzard they had plenty last night. If the transportation authorities in these areas can't even handle a 1" snowfall properly, they're going to be worse than useless when 18"-36" coat the area.



At least you made it! Atl > DC

It's always the "it wont snow much" that does it.
278. MahFL
Quoting 274. CarolinaHurricanes87:



Maybe I'm missing something, but how would that be any different than the potential for a regular car to run out of gas?


If your driving in bad weather you are advised to keep your tank full, in 10 hours you won't run out of gas, as you only run the engine a few mins each hour to warm the car up. Of course if your caught in a blizzard with no gas then yer you'd also freeze to death.
Quoting 262. washingtonian115:

D.C has already announced that they will have schools closed tomorrow.A lot of school districts are closed today and will be closed again Friday.Government and Federal workers will be dismissed early but are encourage to telework.Other private sectors are encourage to do the same.So by the time the snow starts it won' turn into the disaster Wednesday was.



hey....we don't need no stinkin snow to close schools......we've got the pope coming to juarez on the 17th which is the town right next to us on the border...and they are expecting hundreds of thousands to line up at the border fence to watch the popemobile go by
Quoting 276. Tazmanian:



OK Taz
281. MahFL
I was told a story from Scotland, one time when a motorist was caught out in a blizzard he just happened to be a women's stocking seller, he had a good supply of them in his car so he put them all on his arms, legs and head and survived the cold. He looked kinda silly when rescued but was unharmed.
Quoting 271. MahFL:



You'd die, depending on how much warm clothing you had with you...

I suppose if it was a traffic jam, you could always plead with a nearby gas driven car owner to let you in and share the warmth along with assorted road rage stories and the possible future of humanity?

Then again if you were stuck in a blizzard out on a lonely stretch of road, you would in fact almost certainly die.
Moral must be don't drive in locations where snow is probable.
Quoting 279. ricderr:




hey....we don't need no stinkin snow to close schools......we've got the pope coming to juarez on the 17th which is the town right next to us on the border...and they are expecting hundreds of thousands to line up at the border fence to watch the popemobile go by


Is it safe in Juarez? Is he going to talk some Anti-Cartel stuff? Be safe Pope!
Quoting 271. MahFL:



You'd die, depending on how much warm clothing you had with you...


You go get in the next car.
Quoting 284. Qazulight:



You go get in the next car.


No need to be out.................stay HOME!
Quoting 269. hydrus:

Hello Wash..I heard that there actually was a winter weather advisory put out yesterday morning. If thats true, then some of the folks likely knew that conditions were not good for driving...Either way, glad you prepared..it looks bad.
Hello Hydrus.I was able to get back last night by cutting through areas where I know traditionally traffic isn't bad (bonus for being a native).By the time I reached home snow had accumulated pretty quickly on the roads and cars were sliding.
Quoting 273. HurricaneHunterJoe:



At home teleworking by the fireplace with a toddy sounds like the plan!
I have the hot coco with me too :) Kids are having shredded chicken tacos for dinner which will be prepared in my slow cooker.
Winter Weather Preparedness: Know Before It Snows
By: Portlight , 10:19 PM GMT on January 20, 2016



As the Northeast braces for what is forecast to be an historic blizzard, here are some general tips for preparing for winter weather, and some specifically for people living with disabilities:

People with disabilities may want to take extra care during the cold weather season. Some disabling conditions may limit sensory abilities and the ability to maintain body heat, so be particularly vigilant about staying warm when you are out in low temperatures.

Wear multiple layers of clothing, including a scarf around your neck, a winter hat, lined boots and two pairs of socks.

If possible, wear thermal gloves underneath mittens to keep your hands warm.

It’s also a good idea to carry a cell phone.
Went out to grab lunch at a local supermarket, wasn't too crowded, produce was limited but (surprisingly to me) the fruit was still well stocked. Chips, water, beer/wine, breakfast stuff was pretty much gone. Line to the local Costco Gas was out of the parking lot and into the main road, the gas station right next door was packed as well.
Quoting 285. HurricaneHunterJoe:



No need to be out.................stay HOME!

Sometimes you get bushwhacked by conditions:

People Rescued But Highways Still Closed (2007 PA)

Quoting 276. Tazmanian:



You're such a stiff, lighten up a little.
Quoting 290. thomaskerr1027:



Wow
I'm hanging this on the wall.Not every winter you see 3 feet being forecast for D.C.
Quoting 282. PlazaRed:


I suppose if it was a traffic jam, you could always plead with a nearby gas driven car owner to let you in and share the warmth along with assorted road rage stories and the possible future of humanity?

Then again if you were stuck in a blizzard out on a lonely stretch of road, you would in fact almost certainly die.
Moral must be don't drive in locations where snow is probable.


I grew up in SE Minnesota, when Fall came along you would always add a blanket and extra warm clothes to your vehicle that stayed there in the case of an emergency. If you plan right you won't freeze to death.
Quoting 290. thomaskerr1027:



Wow
That's the max snowfall map.
Quoting 276. Tazmanian:



I believe that would be considered "indirect cursing", which is allowed on the blog per Keeper.
Quoting 292. washingtonian115:

I'm hanging this on the wall.Not every winter you see 3 feet being forecast for D.C.


I would assume this is the high level forecast vs. the low level or most likely. I believe the "most likely" forecast is still in the 18-24" range. Correct me if I'm wrong.
Quoting 296. Sfloridacat5:



I would assume this is the high level forecast vs. the low level or most likely. I believe the "most likely" forecast is still in the 18-24" range. Correct me if I'm wrong.
Yes that is the upper end but it is not everyday D.C sees something like that.This storm will be the type that your children tell their children and then grandchildren.
Quoting 271. MahFL:



You'd die, depending on how much warm clothing you had with you...
lol... or you could ask the nicest looking person in a car close to you to let you stay warm in their combustion powered vehicle.... :/
Quoting 286. washingtonian115:

Hello Hydrus.I was able to get back last night by cutting through areas where I know traditionally traffic isn't bad (bonus for being a native).By the time I reached home snow had accumulated pretty quickly on the roads and cars were sliding. I have the hot coco with me too :) Kids are having shredded chicken tacos for dinner which will be prepared in my slow cooker.


Im coming over for dinner..........will work it off with my snow shovel for you!
Quoting 295. tampabaymatt:



I believe that would be considered "indirect cursing", which is allowed on the blog per Keeper.
Some [redacted] bloggers here are so [redacted] hypocritically thin-skinned. Enjoy being El Nino's [redacted]. LOL.
I'll add that accurate snowfall totals can be quite difficult to forecast for a major storm such as this. It will be interesting to see where "the major banding" sets up and repeats over time. These locations could see some remarkable totals.

While on the other hand, some areas may not see totals that are being forecast.

It will be fun to watch the storm unfold. Just hope everyone stays safe.
Quoting 298. washingtonian115:

Yes that is the upper end but it is not everyday D.C sees something like that.This storm will be the type that your children tell their children and then grandchildren.


I lived in the D.C. area for 16 years. I remember some really nice snowfalls (8-12" range), but nothing to this extent.
Quoting 294. AGWcreationists:

That's the max snowfall map.


Still, those are some impressive forecast totals!
Quoting 266. PlazaRed:

Excellent report there, 254. Xyrus2000
I'm just wondering as I occasionally do what would happened if a person was in a 10 hour sub zero traffic jam in an electric car?


You plug in one of these every so often.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 5
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1150 AM UNTIL
700 PM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...SCATTERED-NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM AND
INTENSIFY FROM EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL POSE A RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES...IN ADDITION
TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF
NATCHITOCHES LOUISIANA TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.


...THOMPSON
Quoting 306. Misanthroptimist:



You plug in one of these every so often.


My plug in car will idle longer with the heat on that my gas vehicles will. Only exception is that if I have a full tank of diesel in the truck - it will idle for a couple of days. (Fuel tank size is quite large)

Those heated car blankets are nice and don't draw a lot of power, you could run one of those for a long time. Start and stop the car every couple of hours to bring the battery back up to par if your gas vehicle is running low on fuel.

Finally, if you are routinely in cold weather then you should have a cold weather survival kit (we have them in our vehicles in Alaska). One of things we carry is a 7-day candle. Some people do regular candles and a coffee can. And either a lighter, waterproof matches, small propane torch as well. Crack the windows open so you don't die of carbon monoxide poising and light the candle... It will keep you warm enough to survive. Be careful not to knock the candle over if you do this... I also carry a few magnesium road flares (Not the glow stick ones) because those will burn in pretty bad conditions and you can use them to start a fire. Another thing is non-perishable food, especially protein like protein bars.
Actual amounts being forecast...

Quoting 308. Dakster:



My plug in car will idle longer with the heat on that my gas vehicles will. Only exception is that if I have a full tank of diesel in the truck - it will idle for a couple of days. (Fuel tank size is quite large)

Those heated car blankets are nice and don't draw a lot of power, you could run one of those for a long time. Start and stop the car every couple of hours to bring the battery back up to par if your gas vehicle is running low on fuel.

Finally, if you are routinely in cold weather then you should have a cold weather survival kit (we have them in our vehicles in Alaska). One of things we carry is a 7-day candle. Some people do regular candles and a coffee can. And either a lighter, waterproof matches, small propane torch as well. Crack the windows open so you don't die of carbon monoxide poising and light the candle... It will keep you warm enough to survive. Be careful not to knock the candle over if you do this... I also carry a few magnesium road flares (Not the glow stick ones) because those will burn in pretty bad conditions and you can use them to start a fire. Another thing is non-perishable food, especially protein like protein bars.


I'm not sure how to calculate how long hydrogen fueled car would last - but the Toyota Mirai can serve as an emergency generator.

http://insideevs.com/toyota-mirai-can-serves-emer gency-power-supply-using-chademo/
NWS says snow is possible next Wednesday into Thursday......
Tornadic cell getting ready to cross TX/LA border

Quoting 308. Dakster:



My plug in car will idle longer with the heat on that my gas vehicles will. Only exception is that if I have a full tank of diesel in the truck - it will idle for a couple of days. (Fuel tank size is quite large)

Those heated car blankets are nice and don't draw a lot of power, you could run one of those for a long time. Start and stop the car every couple of hours to bring the battery back up to par if your gas vehicle is running low on fuel.

Finally, if you are routinely in cold weather then you should have a cold weather survival kit (we have them in our vehicles in Alaska). One of things we carry is a 7-day candle. Some people do regular candles and a coffee can. And either a lighter, waterproof matches, small propane torch as well. Crack the windows open so you don't die of carbon monoxide poising and light the candle... It will keep you warm enough to survive. Be careful not to knock the candle over if you do this... I also carry a few magnesium road flares (Not the glow stick ones) because those will burn in pretty bad conditions and you can use them to start a fire. Another thing is non-perishable food, especially protein like protein bars.

This reminds me when I spent a year in Sondrestromfjord, Greenland Air Base (1968-69). The winters were dark and really cold (-77 degrees once). We had to leave the vehicles running 24/7 AND plug them in so immersion heaters would keep the block and battery warm. Looked similar to this (but pic from AK):



Sondrestromfjord, Greenland Air Base, but now called, Kangerlussuaq Airport.





Everyone stay safe!
I guess there are two upsides to what happened in DC overnight, The first is that it's going to encourage everyone to stay off the streets and stay home this weekend since no force on earth is going to be able to clear the roads for travel. The second is some people may have a better understanding now about why an inch of snow and some ice can completely snarl up cities like Atlanta and Birmingham.

Just some light stratiform rain in SE AL at the moment with a temperature of 55. The low in Texas is at 1011 mb but forecast to deepen rapidly as it move east into the Gulf Coast states. The chances for severe storms seem much greater west of me since they have had some clearing and higher temperatures. It doesn't look like any daytime clearing is going to happen here. Still the chance of the deepening low increasing the CAPE and shear enough to pick up some strong storms but nothing like what may happen in LA and, MS, and far SW AL.

Next is the question of frozen stuff. The snow line has now moved to just about over my house. North of here, it looks like the changeover from rain to snow may start about 3:00 Friday afternoon, depending on the track and strength of ULL forecast to move through the area. The snow should continue until about midnight in the west and maybe 0400 in the east. Snow from about Montgomery north to Birmingham looks like it may accumulate from one-half to one inch by Saturday morning, and one to two inches from there north. North of Huntsville, two three inches looks likely, with some freezing rain first. Travel conditions will range for dicey to impossible. I don't think there's much chance for any accumulation near to or south of me, but there might be enough for the kids to run out and look at a snow flurry.

Read this quick if you're interested since it's just about time for a new blog!
CWG has updated their forecast.
CWG is forecasting a total of up to 30 inches in N.W D.C with the potential amount of 40 inches.Almost 4 feet! whew
Looks like I'll get a decent snow here in Greenville. They are saying 1 to 3 inches here. The only thing I don't like is there will be ice mixed in! We had snow falling for about 30 minutes yesterday. None if it stuck though.

Eric
Quoting 315. sar2401:

I guess there are two upsides to what happened in DC overnight, The first is that it's going to encourage everyone to stay off the streets and stay home this weekend since no force on earth is going to be able to clear the roads for travel. The second is some people may have a better understanding now about why an inch of snow and some ice can completely snarl up cities like Atlanta and Birmingham.

Just some light stratiform rain in SE AL at the moment with a temperature of 55. The low in Texas is at 1011 mb but forecast to deepen rapidly as it move east into the Gulf Coast states. The chances for severe storms seem much greater west of me since they have had some clearing and higher temperatures. It doesn't look like any daytime clearing is going to happen here. Still the chance of the deepening low increasing the CAPE and shear enough to pick up some strong storms but nothing like what may happen in LA and, MS, and far SW AL.

Next is the question of frozen stuff. The snow line has now moved to just about over my house. North of here, it looks like the changeover from rain to snow may start about 3:00 Friday afternoon, depending on the track and strength of ULL forecast to move through the area. The snow should continue until about midnight in the west and maybe 0400 in the east. Snow from about Montgomery north to Birmingham looks like it may accumulate from one-half to one inch by Saturday morning, and one to two inches from there north. North of Huntsville, two three inches looks likely, with some freezing rain first. Travel conditions will range for dicey to impossible. I don't think there's much chance for any accumulation near to or south of me, but there might be enough for the kids to run out and look at a snow flurry.

Read this quick if you're interested since it's just about time for a new blog!



I'll be hunting about 30 minutes South of Montgomery West of Georgiana, sure would be nice if we got a dusting there but I know it's not likely.
Quoting 311. CraigsIsland:



I'm not sure how to calculate how long hydrogen fueled car would last - but the Toyota Mirai can serve as an emergency generator.

http://insideevs.com/toyota-mirai-can-serves-emer gency-power-supply-using-chademo/
Slick first concept, but it's only going to be sold in California, and California only has 20 hydrogen filling stations. At $58,000 each, price is a major concern, even in California. At 2000 watts, the emergency generator would only last about six hours tops with no easy way to refill, so it's more a gimmick than anything else right now.
Quoting 309. washingtonian115:

Actual amounts being forecast...




Looks like we're in the 2ft+ range.
Quoting 319. 69Viking:



I'll be hunting about 30 minutes South of Montgomery West of Georgiana, sure would be nice if we got a dusting there but I know it's not likely.
There's a somewhat better chance of a dusting west than east since the colder air arrives when there's still some moisture to work with. I still don't see much chance for accumulation, but there might be a little on grassy areas. There will probably be enough in snow squalls to mess up a good shot at that 8 point buck standing about 50 yards away though if you were hunting late tomorrow afternoon. :-)
Michael Ventrice
‏@MJVentrice
El Nino update: Still very strong, but is now more central based rather than East Pacific based.
Snow map with the range (24-30 inches):

I'm anxious to see what the 18Z NAM does. NWS State College has not updated their snowfall maps since 5AM so maybe they are still confident in those numbers.
The storm is currently over eastern Texas:

Quoting 324. sar2401:

There's a somewhat better chance of a dusting west than east since the colder air arrives when there's still some moisture to work with. I still don't see much chance for accumulation, but there might be a little on grassy areas. There will probably be enough in snow squalls to mess up a good shot at that 8 point buck standing about 50 yards away though if you were hunting late tomorrow afternoon. :-)


I'm leaving in a couple hours to head North so I'll definitely be in the stand tomorrow afternoon so we'll see what happens.
Thanks for the info on the electric cars.
I have yet to see one here in Spain, I'm sure they exist somewhere.
Its the heating system I am fascinated by as they will probably not produce much heat when running if they are electric as in electric motors.
I must investigate them, as one day they might arrive here in my village.
Meanwhile almost all the cars here are diesel, mine getting about 60 MPG, I recently totally rebuilt to engine to run super lean and even though its 26 years old and done about 300,000 miles it still runs very good.

Fascinating stuff about the impending bad weather on the East Coast!
Increased chance of la nina conditions by the peak of hurricane season. 50-60%. Uncertainty due to the speed of the deterioration of el nino.
Quoting 314. RickWPB:


This reminds me when I spent a year in Sondrestromfjord, Greenland Air Base (1968-69). The winters were dark and really cold (-77 degrees once). We had to leave the vehicles running 24/7 AND plug them in so immersion heaters would keep the block and battery warm. Looked similar to this (but pic from AK):



Sondrestromfjord, Greenland Air Base, but now called, Kangerlussuaq Airport.





Everyone stay safe!
My brother worked for 3M most of his career and was stationed at the then home office in Minneapolis for about eight years. I made the mistake of visiting him one February. He had a diesel GMC pickup. Getting it set up to survive the night was a major undertaking. He had to fill up the tank since it had to idle all night. Even with a bunch of additives, it wouldn't start when it hit -15 or below. He then had to get it close enough to the house (no garage) to plug in the block heater since, even with the engine idling, it still wouldn't keep the lower block warm enough. Next came plugging in the blanket to cover the battery, since that would freeze solid without additional heat. He had a special blanket he used to cover the windows because there was no way to scrape ice off it when it was 20 below. Final check to make sure the heat wasn't too high (windshield would crack if it got too hot) and make sure the doors were unlocked (the locks would freeze no matter what you did). He told me 3M was hiring. I decided to pass on that job offer. :-)
Quoting 328. Drakoen:

The storm is currently over eastern Texas:



The temperatures behind the cold front in Texas aren't that cold (50s F), and the surface inflow along and north of the stationary-warm front boundary is coming directly off the Atlantic, which makes me wonder about how far south the snowline will actually get.
Quoting 314. RickWPB:


This reminds me when I spent a year in Sondrestromfjord, Greenland Air Base (1968-69). The winters were dark and really cold (-77 degrees once). We had to leave the vehicles running 24/7 AND plug them in so immersion heaters would keep the block and battery warm. Looked similar to this (but pic from AK):



Sondrestromfjord, Greenland Air Base, but now called, Kangerlussuaq Airport.





Everyone stay safe!


In interior Alaska the vehicles run all night long and jacked up in drive so the tires rotate. Otherwise they freeze in place and you can't drive off... Luckily I don't live in that area. I can see while at home a heated garage being absolutely mandatory.

Stay safe everyone. Heed the warning of don't go out unless you have to.
Quoting 312. washingtonian115:

NWS says snow is possible next Wednesday into Thursday......
Yep..Euro sez it too...
Quoting 332. sar2401:

My brother worked for 3M most of his career and was stationed at the then home office in Minneapolis for about eight years. I made the mistake of visiting him one February. He had a diesel GMC pickup. Getting it set up to survive the night was a major undertaking. He had to fill up the tank since it had to idle all night. Even with a bunch of additives, it wouldn't start when it hit -15 or below. He then had to get it close enough to the house (no garage) to plug in the block heater since, even with the engine idling, it still wouldn't keep the lower block warm enough. Next came plugging in the blanket to cover the battery, since that would freeze solid without additional heat. He had a special blanket he used to cover the windows because there was no way to scrape ice off it when it was 20 below. Final check to make sure the heat wasn't too high (windshield would crack if it got too hot) and make sure the doors were unlocked (the locks would freeze no matter what you did). He told me 3M was hiring. I decided to pass on that job offer. :-)


I grew up just South of Minneapolis, the struggle with the cold is real!
Quoting 272. CarolinaHurricanes87:



Are you coming to Charlotte for the game? I'm lucky I'm only an 8-10 minute walk from the stadium. Will be tough traveling for anyone further out! Be safe


I was planning on it..have my tickets but now I don't know considering the weather up that way.. the roads even coming from my direction early sunday morning or coming back from Charlotte late at night wont be pretty :(
The SPC has increased the severe potential for FL tomorrow.

SAR - Yeah Minneapolis is a lot colder than Anchorage and even with today's better tech and vehicles that struggle is still there. New additives are good to around -40F now. After that it gets dicey. You know its bad when it is too cold for propane to ignite.

Battery blankets, oil pan heaters, transmission pan heaters, block heaters are needed. I see those ice blankets for sale all over too. You through them over the windshield and they peel off in the morning. I've scraped my windows at -20F, it isn't fun. I usually let the truck idle in the morning to melt it now and I pre-treat the night before with deicing fluid that keeps ice from sticking to the windows.

You forgot about the winter fronts. I've driven on the highway in sub zero temps and nearly shut the truck off... At least you get a warning as the heater stops working and then you look at the temp gauge is buried past the C mark...

Overall I do love it as the snow and cold give you different outdoor activity possibilities when the weather cooperates.

This low between Iceland and Scotland is your Jonas-Blizzard next Wednesday according to GFS. The British Isles should see once again a storm with heavy rain, and even my place mid Germany could experience stormy and windy weather next week, as Jonas is going to enhance the force of the zonal flow from the Atlantic into Europe, as far as I can see.
Quoting 331. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Increased chance of la nina conditions by the peak of hurricane season. 50-60%. Uncertainty due to the speed of the deterioration of el nino.

There's a new Kelvin wave and not much cold waters building like the 97,98 El nino. This El nino will takes more time to transition later this year.
Quoting 266. PlazaRed:

Excellent report there, 254. Xyrus2000
I'm just wondering as I occasionally do what would happened if a person was in a 10 hour sub zero traffic jam in an electric car?
I can understand that in a petrol car you could keep tuning on the engine to warm the car up but what about 10 hours in an electric car and then to make things worse, what if the batteries were not fully charged to start with.
Have manufactures thought about these kinds of scenarios?

In my opinion, electric cars haven't got what it takes to be in city traffic in sub-freezing temps, (especially when 10 hour commutes are possible.) Not even in any traffic for two hours at sub-freezing temps.
edit: maybe hybrids can do it but not all-electric,
12z NAM.
Quoting 338. tampabaymatt:

The SPC has increased the severe potential for FL tomorrow.




It looks like the chance for severe weather is quite low for my areas of S.W. Florida. But if we do see some severe weather down here, our local meteorologist will need a serving of Crow.
Because this meteorologist has said repeatedly yesterday and today that we will NOT see any severe weather here.
Quoting 337. ncstorm:



I was planning on it..have my tickets but now I don't know considering the weather up that way.. the roads even coming from my direction early sunday morning or coming back from Charlotte late at night wont be pretty :(


I wrote in the previous blog about my sister being stuck in Atlanta for 3 days due to severe thunderstorms across the S.E. cancelling so many flights a couple days before Christmas. I felt really sorry for her.
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FL
PANHANDLE AND NRN/WRN FL INTO SERN AL/SRN GA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT
RISK...INCLUDING ALL OF FL AND NEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTS...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTH GEORGIA EARLY FRIDAY.

...SYNOPSIS...
A UPPER LOW/SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE CROSSING THE
SERN U.S. FRI...WITH ACCOMPANYING STRONG/CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM EXPANDING TO AFFECT A LARGE PORTION OF THE
ERN U.S. -- PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...RIDGING ALOFT WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...WHILE AN ERN PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE W COAST LATE.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT -- TRAILING FROM A LOW OVER NRN AL A
THE START OF THE PERIOD -- IS FORECAST TO SURGE EWD ACROSS GA AND FL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...CLEARING THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING AS THE LOW CROSSES THE COASTAL CAROLINAS VICINITY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS -- AND SOME SEVERE RISK -- WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
STORM SYSTEM AS IT CROSSES THE SERN CONUS.

...THE SOUTHEAST STATES...
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT
SERN AL/SRN GA. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED...FAIRLY
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND
FIELD SUGGEST ONGOING RISK FOR OCCASIONAL ROTATING STORMS -- AND
ASSOCIATED RISK FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ALONG WITH LOCALLY
GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS.

WITH TIME...SEVERE RISK WILL SPREAD ACROSS GA...AND LATER IN THE
EVENING MAY AFFECT THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AS THE LOW SHIFTS NEWD.
MEANWHILE FARTHER S...WINDS SHOULD VEER ACROSS FL AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...LIMITING TO SOME DEGREE THE TORNADO RISK.
WHILE AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...GREATER SEVERE
RISK APPEARS TO BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THE FRONTAL BAND OF
STORMS MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS WRN FL BEFORE SHIFTING INLAND AND
GRADUALLY WEAKENING. RISK SHOULD END FROM W-E THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON AS STORMS -- AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT -- MOVE
OFFSHORE.

..GOSS.. 01/21/2016

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
Quoting 338. tampabaymatt:

The SPC has increased the severe potential for FL tomorrow.


That's not exactly tomorrow, since the SPC uses zulu time, and midnight comes at 1800 CST today. Most of the severe potential is from about 2100 tonight until about 0600 (CST) tomorrow morning for me, and probably before 0300. The potential for you is maybe 0200 through about 1100 EST. Seems as if things are going to have to change a lot though for that severe potential to be realized, although I've been fooled in the past by fast developing ULL's.
Off the snow topic for a moment.

With 18"of rain across it's watershed since December 23, 2015, with most coming in the last 10 days. Shasta Lake has added 500,000 acre feet of water or about 163 BILLION gallons of water into the lake. Lake is now up to 42% of capacity and has risen 30 feet to near 950 feet at the dam. Shasta Dam max height is 1067 feet, so the lake can take a lot more water but just amazing what has occurred the last 10 days! I think another good storm before a small dryout period. Gotta thank El Nino for it's help. For the best help to California's drought, we hope most precip falls from Yosemite National Park and points north of there. It helps the most there as the largest storage lakes are up there.




Quoting 339. Dakster:

SAR - Yeah Minneapolis is a lot colder than Anchorage and even with today's better tech and vehicles that struggle is still there. New additives are good to around -40F now. After that it gets dicey. You know its bad when it is too cold for propane to ignite.

Battery blankets, oil pan heaters, transmission pan heaters, block heaters are needed. I see those ice blankets for sale all over too. You through them over the windshield and they peel off in the morning. I've scraped my windows at -20F, it isn't fun. I usually let the truck idle in the morning to melt it now and I pre-treat the night before with deicing fluid that keeps ice from sticking to the windows.

You forgot about the winter fronts. I've driven on the highway in sub zero temps and nearly shut the truck off... At least you get a warning as the heater stops working and then you look at the temp gauge is buried past the C mark...

Overall I do love it as the snow and cold give you different outdoor activity possibilities when the weather cooperates.
It is not  as bad as Sar claims. I have lived in northern MN for almost 50 years now and the cold here puts Minneapolis at the kids table in the cold dept and other than plugging your car in or putting your bra on the front of your diesel not much else is done. 
Here is a tip if your #1 diesel starts to gel add a little gasoline to it but I doubt many of you will see temps that cold.
Here is another one for you lucky folks in the DC area is you start getting a heavy buildup of  snow on your roof you may want to clear it off. Depending on the density of the snow it can add a massive amount of weight to your roof

Heatwave!!
Quoting 332. sar2401:

My brother worked for 3M most of his career and was stationed at the then home office in Minneapolis for about eight years. I made the mistake of visiting him one February. He had a diesel GMC pickup. Getting it set up to survive the night was a major undertaking. He had to fill up the tank since it had to idle all night. Even with a bunch of additives, it wouldn't start when it hit -15 or below. He then had to get it close enough to the house (no garage) to plug in the block heater since, even with the engine idling, it still wouldn't keep the lower block warm enough. Next came plugging in the blanket to cover the battery, since that would freeze solid without additional heat. He had a special blanket he used to cover the windows because there was no way to scrape ice off it when it was 20 below. Final check to make sure the heat wasn't too high (windshield would crack if it got too hot) and make sure the doors were unlocked (the locks would freeze no matter what you did). He told me 3M was hiring. I decided to pass on that job offer. :-)


I grew up in Port Huron, MI and lived some of my adult life in Ann Arbor, MI. I remember many times having to put a heater in the garage along with something to produce heat under the hood or the car would not start in the morning.

At one place I lived, there was an in-floor oil furnace (small house). One winter it was so cold and snowy that the oil line kept freezing up. I'd have to go out and push the snow away and fashion it into a bed so I could lay down on it and point my hair dryer on the supply line to thaw it out. Every few hours, I'd bundle up thoroughly and then don my dear departed husband's snowmobile suit to do the job. Glad that cold snap didn't last long. I moved to a better house by the next winter.
Quoting 334. Dakster:



In interior Alaska the vehicles run all night long and jacked up in drive so the tires rotate. Otherwise they freeze in place and you can't drive off... Luckily I don't live in that area. I can see while at home a heated garage being absolutely mandatory.

Stay safe everyone. Heed the warning of don't go out unless you have to.
My brother's neighbor built a three car heated garage for his house. Said it cost about $700-$1000 a winter to keep it heated, depending on when winter started and how cold it got. My brother, being a cheapskate and impervious to cold weather (he didn't stop wearing shorts until it regularly got to zero), decided he could pay for all his various heaters for a long time before he spent the money to build a garage and keep it heated. This was back about 1978 or so. I guess all that's changed in the Minneapolis area. I saw an ad for a new development in Hennepin the other day. It only mentioned the size of the rooms and square footage once, but it talked about the heated garage three times - once in all CAPITAL letters. :-)
Quoting 350. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


This is going to slam real hard! It already has the look.
Quoting 347. sar2401:

That's not exactly tomorrow, since the SPC uses zulu time, and midnight comes at 1800 CST today. Most of the severe potential is from about 2100 tonight until about 0600 (CST) tomorrow morning for me, and probably before 0300. The potential for you is maybe 0200 through about 1100 EST. Seems as if things are going to have to change a lot though for that severe potential to be realized, although I've been fooled in the past by fast developing ULL's.


If you get in the "zone" south of the warm front things can change fast. That's what happened here. Last week, the day before we had severe weather temperatures were in the 50s and 60s with rather low dew points. I was thinking things really needed to change for us to get severe weather. But then the warm front pushed north of our area and we got into that perfect zone (south of the warm front with the approaching cold front moving into the area) for severe weather.
And sure enough severe storms starting firing off just as forecast.
Quoting 347. sar2401:

That's not exactly tomorrow, since the SPC uses zulu time, and midnight comes at 1800 CST today. Most of the severe potential is from about 2100 tonight until about 0600 (CST) tomorrow morning for me, and probably before 0300. The potential for you is maybe 0200 through about 1100 EST. Seems as if things are going to have to change a lot though for that severe potential to be realized, although I've been fooled in the past by fast developing ULL's.


It's going to be interesting to be at the Hunting Camp for possible severe weather. With enough heavy rain the creek comes out of its bank and cuts us off from about a 1/3 of the 110 acres, pretty cool to see! Were in a valley so chance of getting hit by a tornado is slim but that doesn't stop trees from coming down with high winds.
Seeing all the thunderstorm activity associated with this storm, indicated just how dynamic it is, is a good sign for Heavy Snow and Thundersnow.
Quoting 355. Climate175:

This is going to slam real hard! It already has the look.


Starting to wind up!
Quoting 358. Drakoen:

Seeing all the thunderstorm activity associated with this storm, indicated just how dynamic it is, is a good sign for Heavy Snow and Thundersnow.
There has even been a tornado watch with the storm. Very fierce and robust.
Quoting 353. Kittykatz:



I grew up in Port Huron, MI and lived some of my adult life in Ann Arbor, MI. I remember many times having to put a heater in the garage along with something to produce heat under the hood or the car would not start in the morning.

At one place I lived, there was an in-floor oil furnace (small house). One winter it was so cold and snowy that the oil line kept freezing up. I'd have to go out and push the snow away and fashion it into a bed so I could lay down on it and point my hair dryer on the supply line to thaw it out. Every few hours, I'd bundle up thoroughly and then don my dear departed husband's snowmobile suit to do the job. Glad that cold snap didn't last long. I moved to a better house by the next winter.
And some poor sap moved into your old house. :-) Just too many horrible winters in Cleveland for me too get nostalgic when I see pictures of how pretty the snow looks out in Geauga County again. It is beautiful, but eventually you have to do things like go to work or get groceries, and the beauty of it all wears thin pretty quick, especially when it turns to nasty brown sludge on the roads and builds up those two foot crud drifts in the wheel wells. I'll take the occasional snow flurry down here compared to that any day.
Quoting 344. Sfloridacat5:



It looks like the chance for severe weather is quite low for my areas of S.W. Florida. But if we do see some severe weather down here, our local meteorologist will need a serving of Crow.
Because this meteorologist has said repeatedly yesterday and today that we will NOT see any severe weather here.



Some parts of FL have gone from nothing to SLGT in a matter of 24 hours.
Low is winding up on visible loop in NE TX
Quoting 358. Drakoen:

Seeing all the thunderstorm activity associated with this storm, indicated just how dynamic it is, is a good sign for Heavy Snow and Thundersnow.


I can already hear Jim Cantore shouting with exuberance in the distance..
now I see what the weather folks are worried..NOAA is predicting 3.4 inches of rain with this coming storm around MD and DC area's.............................now I read this........................How many inches of snow equals one inch of rain?On average, thirteen inches of snow equals one inch of rain in the US, although this ratio can vary from two inches for sleet to nearly fifty inches for very dry, powdery snow under certain conditions.
Quoting 349. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Maybe another drip drip drip storm for Soo Cal Saturday. Glad Nor Cal is getting pounded for an extended period.......but do want to see that El Nino Jet coming into Soo Cal for extended periods also.
Quoting 359. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Starting to wind up!


Source.
Quoting 364. Articuno:



I can already hear Jim Cantore shouting with exuberance in the distance..
Get ready!
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 1h1 hour ago
By mid-Jan 1998, below-normal 20C isotherm to 130W. In 2016, it's around ~165W. #ElNino dissipation slower this yr?
Quoting 362. tampabaymatt:



Some parts of FL have gone from nothing to SLGT in a matter of 24 hours.


Yeah, I'm thinking we could see some strong storms. The further south you go down the state, you're getting further away from the dynamics needed for severe weather. But I wouldn't be surprised if we see a nasty line of storms even down in my area.
Quoting 357. 69Viking:



It's going to be interesting to be at the Hunting Camp for possible severe weather. With enough heavy rain the creek comes out of its bank and cuts us off from about a 1/3 of the 110 acres, pretty cool to see! Were in a valley so chance of getting hit by a tornado is slim but that doesn't stop trees from coming down with high winds.
The rain could get pretty heavy if we get some training lines set up over us. I'm already up to 0.42 just from the stratiform rain out ahead of the low. I had to drive over to a little burg called Brantley yesterday, about 50 miles west of here, for two couches we just had to get. I was really surprised at all the standing water still left in the roadside ditches and in the river overflow areas. The Pea River was still running high, and it won't take much to bring the creeks and rivers back out of their banks again. I passed about six bridges and culverts either just recently repaired from washouts or with just enough paving left to make one lane around the washout. Things could also get interesting for your drive back to Florida.
Per Jim Cantore:

12z NAM total ICE ACCRETION from @MikeWDross is CRIPPLING from northeast GA 2 North Carolina maxing near #Charlotte



Quoting 351. nymore:


It is not  as bad as Sar claims. I have lived in northern MN for almost 50 years now and the cold here puts Minneapolis at the kids table in the cold dept and other than plugging your car in or putting your bra on the front of your diesel not much else is done. 
Here is a tip if your #1 diesel starts to gel add a little gasoline to it but I doubt many of you will see temps that cold.
Here is another one for you lucky folks in the DC area is you start getting a heavy buildup of  snow on your roof you may want to clear it off. Depending on the density of the snow it can add a massive amount of weight to your roof


I reached CFPP this year because I still had some summer fuel (treated though) in the tank... Some powerservice diesel kleen arctic fixed it. Gasoline in a new DPF/SCR equipped diesel is a no-no... T Straight Kerosene is OK. Home heating fuel isn't because it can contain too much sulfur. (not to mention it's illegal to use it as it isn't road taxed).

In fact my new truck, in the manual says no winter front (or bra), but it could help.

Sar - I admit, when I look at a house before I go ANY further I look to see if it has a heated garage and how big that garage is. If it doesn't have one, I look to see if I could put one in if the price was right. If the answer to both questions is NO, I look at the next house. I currently only have a one car heated garage... The wife gets that parking spot.

I love walking out with a drink in sub zero weather and by the time I make it to the truck it's frozen. :(
Already looks nasty.

Quoting 345. Sfloridacat5:



I wrote in the previous blog about my sister being stuck in Atlanta for 3 days due to severe thunderstorms across the S.E. cancelling so many flights a couple days before Christmas. I felt really sorry for her.


American Airlines have already started cancelling flights into Charlotte..



By Ely Portillo

elyportillo@charlotteobserver.com

American Airlines said Thursday that it is canceling all flights to and from Charlotte on Friday because of an expected winter storm.

The move will impact hundreds of flights. American operates more than 90 percent of air service each day at Charlotte Douglas International Airport – typically about 600 flights – so air travel on Friday to and from Charlotte will be mostly stopped until Saturday, when American plans to resume flying from the city.

The airline is completing all of its outbound flights Thursday evening, and won’t leave any aircraft overnight at Charlotte Douglas because of an anticipated 1/2 inch of ice. Ice on airplane wings is a major hazard, and deicing planes is a costly and time-consuming operation.

The airline has notified travelers who are scheduled on the flights, and will waive change fees to book a new flight.

Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/business/art icle55851915.html#storylink=cpy
Quoting 364. Articuno:



I can already hear Jim Cantore shouting with exuberance in the distance..
Yep...Thundersnow is almost certain...and not because of J. Cantore..:)
Quoting 375. ncstorm:



American Airlines have already started cancelling flights into Charlotte..



By Ely Portillo

elyportillo@charlotteobserver.com

American Airlines said Thursday that it is canceling all flights to and from Charlotte on Friday because of an expected winter storm.

The move will impact hundreds of flights. American operates more than 90 percent of air service each day at Charlotte Douglas International Airport – typically about 600 flights – so air travel on Friday to and from Charlotte will be mostly stopped until Saturday, when American plans to resume flying from the city.

The airline is completing all of its outbound flights Thursday evening, and won’t leave any aircraft overnight at Charlotte Douglas because of an anticipated 1/2 inch of ice. Ice on airplane wings is a major hazard, and deicing planes is a costly and time-consuming operation.

The airline has notified travelers who are scheduled on the flights, and will waive change fees to book a new flight.

Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/business/art icle55851915.html#storylink=cpy


It's going to be a nightmare for anyone trying to travel across the eastern U.S. for the next few days.
Quoting 362. tampabaymatt:



Some parts of FL have gone from nothing to SLGT in a matter of 24 hours.
That's principally due the continuing shift south in the path of the main low and the ULL that's going to develop later today and track even further south. There's a certain amount of safe rather than sorry going on, at least in part due the the recent history of storms here and in Florida, since the instability parameters are marginal at best to support any severe storms. Doesn't mean there's no chance of severe storms, but what happens here earlier tonight and tomorrow morning will be a pretty good indicator of what's likely to happen tomorrow in Florida.

SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 6
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
215 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD EASTWARD FROM
LOUISIANA INTO MISSISSIPPI LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING. THE STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE RISK OF A
FEW TORNADOES...DAMAGING GUSTS...AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF JACKSON
MISSISSIPPI TO 30 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF HOUMA LOUISIANA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 5...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.


...THOMPSON
Quoting 365. LargoFl:

now I see what the weather folks are worried..NOAA is predicting 3.4 inches of rain with this coming storm around MD and DC area's.............................now I read this........................How many inches of snow equals one inch of rain?On average, thirteen inches of snow equals one inch of rain in the US, although this ratio can vary from two inches for sleet to nearly fifty inches for very dry, powdery snow under certain conditions.


Rule of thumb is 10:1 and that's what I'm expecting. That gives us in DC 2-3 feet.

Quoting 380. georgevandenberghe:



Rule of thumb is 10:1 and that's what I'm expecting. That gives us in DC 2-3 feet.


yes that's what I always ran with too 10 inches for 1 inch of rain..going to be a good storm up there,hopefully it doesn't slow down any.
The NAM is hanging up the precip in CT/RI/LI for a while. Could be some big totals if that verified.
Quoting 377. Sfloridacat5:



It's going to be a nightmare for anyone trying to travel across the eastern U.S. for the next few days.
The cancellations already taking place as a precaution will join those the inevitable weather delays and cancellations cause as this storm really gets cranked up. All those planes stuck at some other airport means those same planes needed for a later flight either won't get to another airport or will arrive many hours late. The later the flights, the more pilots will go on the law, meaning they will be required to take the mandatory 12 hour rest period, even if they just spent six hours sitting in the cockpit waiting for a takeoff slot. Less available pilots means even planes on the ground in a city with no snow won't be going anywhere. The snowball downhill (pun intended) is going to lead to an almost complete shutdown in US commercial airline traffic by Sunday. Anyone planning a flight this weekend should either plan on staying home or finding a hotel now, before the rush begins.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SACRAMENTO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL DELAYS AND CHAIN CONTROLS. GUSTY WINDS MAY BRING WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES AT TIMES.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HANFORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...10 TO 20 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
Looks like the Secondary Low is just now developing in the SE Corner of Oklahoma. HERE IT COMES! hello everyone
TORNADO WARNING
LAC009-212045-
/O.NEW.KLCH.TO.W.0011.160121T2018Z-160121T2045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
218 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
AVOYELLES PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 245 PM CST

* AT 218 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR EVERGREEN...OR NEAR BUNKIE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
COTTONPORT AND HESSMER AROUND 225 PM CST.
MANSURA...PLAUCHEVILLE AND DUPONT AROUND 230 PM CST.
MARKSVILLE AND MOREAUVILLE AROUND 235 PM CST.
BORDELONVILLE AND BIG BEND AROUND 245 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
HAMBURG.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3123 9179 3122 9175 3117 9170 3114 9172
3112 9172 3111 9170 3109 9172 3107 9171
3099 9178 3085 9204 3085 9220 3094 9228
3097 9224 3096 9221 3099 9221 3127 9186
3127 9184
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 232DEG 39KT 3091 9214

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$
Quoting 351. nymore:


It is not  as bad as Sar claims. I have lived in northern MN for almost 50 years now and the cold here puts Minneapolis at the kids table in the cold dept and other than plugging your car in or putting your bra on the front of your diesel not much else is done. 
Here is a tip if your #1 diesel starts to gel add a little gasoline to it but I doubt many of you will see temps that cold.
Here is another one for you lucky folks in the DC area is you start getting a heavy buildup of  snow on your roof you may want to clear it off. Depending on the density of the snow it can add a massive amount of weight to your roof


To me the first MN tip is stay away from diesel!

My old toyota was very reliable below 0F. It would reliably not start. Tricks I used.

1. Remove the battery and take it to a warm place. A 70F battery puts out 2.5x the current of a 0F battery.
2. Use ether starting fluid (not usually necessary)

I did not experience below -10F so don't know where those tricks would fail... they worked at -10F.

I expect a modern well maintained gasoline car to start to -15F without help. Below that level I'd look
at a block heater if I lived someplace cold. I live in DC.. not relevant. I have not had a cold related failure to start since 1988 and that last was due to a cold and old battery (at +5F)


Quoting 373. Dakster:



I reached CFPP this year because I still had some summer fuel (treated though) in the tank... Some powerservice diesel kleen arctic fixed it. Gasoline in a new DPF/SCR equipped diesel is a no-no... T Straight Kerosene is OK. Home heating fuel isn't because it can contain too much sulfur. (not to mention it's illegal to use it as it isn't road taxed).

In fact my new truck, in the manual says no winter front (or bra), but it could help.

Sar - I admit, when I look at a house before I go ANY further I look to see if it has a heated garage and how big that garage is. If it doesn't have one, I look to see if I could put one in if the price was right. If the answer to both questions is NO, I look at the next house. I currently only have a one car heated garage... The wife gets that parking spot.

I love walking out with a drink in sub zero weather and by the time I make it to the truck it's frozen. :(


The solution here is stronger drink!
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 241 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 232 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 228 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 228 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
TORNADO WARNING     JACKSON MS - KJAN 226 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
TORNADO WARNING     LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 218 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 215 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 209 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 208 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 205 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 155 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 119 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
TORNADO WARNING     SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 117 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 113 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 105 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
TORNADO WARNING     LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 1243 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 1234 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
TORNADO WARNING     LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 1204 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
TORNADO WARNING     LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 1202 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
There's a large plume of moisture and clouds all the way down to the Yucatan and NW Caribbean that is gonna get pulled ahead of the developing storm. Not sure if this is part of the equation or not but looks like a player. It's racing NE very fast
Quoting 385. tampabaymatt:




I'm not sure why the WPC keeps depicting these precip holes the GFS generates over FL that are erroneous. All they need to do is look at the results of the event compared to the GFS depiction and ignore it from then on. The GFS always has circular areas of precip reduction across the interior FL peninsula when a convective system will be passing across the state from the gulf, but the results never actually follow that unless there is legitimate reasons for why in the synoptic setup would lead to such.

Given that 9/10 times its a GFS bug and the WPC hasn't picked up on it. With the last system that had all the severe weather, they did the same thing, forecasting only a quarter inch across east central and interior central FL when actual QPF averages were 1-2 inches widespread with locally higher totals. The NWS in Ruskin and Melbourne however had 1-2 inch QPF in these areas, getting the forecast right on the dot with precip.

I'm still puzzled as to why the GFS does this, because it's almost as if it thinks there is high terrain on the west coast of FL. It seems to only do this with fast moving weather events that move from west to east from the gulf.
Quoting 392. georgevandenberghe:



The solution here is stronger drink!


I knew someone was going to say that or at least think that... BUT...

The building Squall Line Thumpers are really taking form out in the GOM, as they stream towards the Nado Watch Box.





For the Greenville - Spartanburg and Charlotte areas

issued by The National Weather Service
Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
3:44pm EST, Thu Jan 21
... WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY...
* LOCATIONS... THE PIEDMONT OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN PIEDMONT OF SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS INCLUDES THE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG AREA AS WELL AS CHARLOTTE METRO.
* HAZARDS... A SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WILL START TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN... SLEET... AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA IS LIKELY.
* TIMING... THE WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
* ACCUMULATIONS... SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 10 INCHES... ALONG WITH AROUND ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH OF ICE.
* IMPACTS... HEAVY SNOW AND SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION COULD MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... AND COULD COMBINE WITH GUSTY WINDS TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES AND DOWNED TREE LIMBS.
* WINDS... NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
* TEMPERATURES... IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET... AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.
More Information
... MAJOR WINTER STORM EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
.A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE AREA TONIGHT... WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET... AND FREEZING RAIN BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. DAMAGING ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS... WHILE HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE AND SNOW ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 ACROSS THE LAKELANDS REGION.
Latest Reuters roundup:
U.S. East Coast girds for up to 2-1/2 feet of snow
WASHINGTON | By Ian Simpson, US | Thu Jan 21, 2016 3:16pm EST


(Click to enlarge).
Good night with a last current impression from the Alp cams. Tomorrow evening a band of bad weather will cross us in Europe, causing very severe conditions with ice rain and black ice in Germany ...
Quoting 361. sar2401:

And some poor sap moved into your old house. :-) Just too many horrible winters in Cleveland for me too get nostalgic when I see pictures of how pretty the snow looks out in Geauga County again. It is beautiful, but eventually you have to do things like go to work or get groceries, and the beauty of it all wears thin pretty quick, especially when it turns to nasty brown sludge on the roads and builds up those two foot crud drifts in the wheel wells. I'll take the occasional snow flurry down here compared to that any day.
Yeah, the slush and the icy crud is what always took the "beauty" out of the whole snow experience. I remember it well from growing up in Southeastern Michigan. Also remember that our garage had the curious ability to build up mounds of dirty ice on the floor in various and curious shades of brown, black, gray and semi-clear. The same thing could happen on roadsides and along sidewalks. When the large snowbanks would partially melt then refreeze, the resulting mountains of frozen icy-slush could feel as hard as concrete if/when one would slip and fall on them.

A climate which produces real winter conditions brings about a lifetime of memory details such as these, even when one moves away from that into a climate zone which rarely if ever experiences such things.
NWS in Greenville - Spartanburg Calling for 2-10 inches of snow and up to 1/2 inch of ice. Seems as though they have a really tricky forecast, as this is a pretty safe forecast. This tells me that they're not sure if they're going to get more ice or more snow in this region.

NY still looking at 5-8 inches...with heavy winds. DC close to 2 ft -- All depends on whether sleet mixes in with snow, if it does I expect totals to be less.
Quoting 398. Jedkins01:



I'm not sure why the WPC keeps depicting these precip holes the GFS generates over FL that are erroneous. All they need to do is look at the results of the event compared to the GFS depiction and ignore it from then on. The GFS always has circular areas of precip reduction across the interior FL peninsula when a convective system will be passing across the state from the gulf, but the results never actually follow that unless there is legitimate reasons for why in the synoptic setup would lead to such.

Given that 9/10 times its a GFS bug and the WPC hasn't picked up on it. With the last system that had all the severe weather, they did the same thing, forecasting only a quarter inch across east central and interior central FL when actual QPF averages were 1-2 inches widespread with locally higher totals. The NWS in Ruskin and Melbourne however had 1-2 inch QPF in these areas, getting the forecast right on the dot with precip.


Irony will be when you graduate you are employed by the NWS, working at WPC doing QPF, following their operating procedures.
932  
WUUS54 KJAN 212053  
SVRJAN  
MSC021-049-149-212145-  
/O.NEW.KJAN.SV.W.0009.160121T2053Z-160121T2145Z/  
 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
253 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...  
NORTHWESTERN HINDS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...  
NORTHEASTERN CLAIBORNE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...  
 
* UNTIL 345 PM CST  
 
* AT 252 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER NEWMAN...OR  
11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF VICKSBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE  
TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.  
 
* THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...  
EDWARDS AROUND 310 PM CST.  
BOLTON AROUND 325 PM CST.  
BROWNSVILLE AROUND 330 PM CST.  
CLINTON AROUND 335 PM CST.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
BUILDING.  
 
 
 
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CST FOR SOUTHWESTERN  
MISSISSIPPI.  
 
LAT...LON 3211 9075 3222 9084 3248 9047 3234 9028  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 235DEG 31KT 3221 9072  
 
HAIL...1.00IN  
WIND...60MPH  
 
 
 
10  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.


The Nexlab MS Page

The Nexlab AR Page

The Nexlab LA Page

Main Text Page

Is anyone thinking the LOW near the SE Corner of Oklahoma looking to go slightly further north than thought?
Just WOW... I lurk here to find info, but this storm has me very nervous. I am prepared but nobody can be totally prepared for the uncertain. Thanking all for the free info here.
Quoting 386. BayFog:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SACRAMENTO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL DELAYS AND CHAIN CONTROLS. GUSTY WINDS MAY BRING WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES AT TIMES.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HANFORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...10 TO 20 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

Only areas more like 7,000 feet or above will see those kinds of snows. It's currently 48 in Reno, and the low isn't expected to get below freezing until Sunday, when the moisture will have moved east. It's going to be very windy across the pass and into western Nevada though, so a bad time to decide to take the motorhome across the hill. Looks like some heavy lowland rain at times, so more of a dent in the drought continues.
Quoting 408. TampaSpin:

Is anyone thinking the LOW near the SE Corner of Oklahoma looking to go slightly further north than thought?

Appears to be a bit north of forecasted track, but that is only going off water vapor imagery. Lowest pressures at the surface maybe south of what we see on the imagery...mabye a titled rotation to the NE as you go vertical within in the storm... don't know just a guess..



Quoting 350. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


It just won't quit today.. the forecast kept showing the cessation of precipitation from this morning and now with that big green and yellow blob heading our from from the Gulf it appears that we will have continuous wettage into tomorrow morning. BLOWN FORECAST ALERT!! and I was planning on tennis today :(
Quoting 397. RitaEvac:

There's a large plume of moisture and clouds all the way down to the Yucatan and NW Caribbean that is gonna get pulled ahead of the developing storm. Not sure if this is part of the equation or not but looks like a player. It's racing NE very fast


It's the southern stream jet, given that it's upper moisture, it won't really add much to the moisture equation since the upper levels are limited to how much water they contribute because they are cold, that and the fact that convection is what produces heavy precip.

With that said though, what it will contribute is an increasingly divergent flow pattern ahead of the upper system. Divergence aloft induces lifting from below, increasing convection, pressure falls , and rainfall coverage.

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #34
STORM WARNING
TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR, CATEGORY TWO (08F)
6:00 AM FST January 22 2016
=============================
Southwest of Niue
Southeast of Nukuʻalofa (Tonga)

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Victor, Category Two (978 hPa) located at 22.1S 172.1W has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots. Position poor based on hourly GOES infrared imagery. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 6 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
40 NM from the center in northern semi-circle
100 NM from the center in southern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
=============
100 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
200 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
200 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
80 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Deep convection has decreased with cloud tops warming past 6 hours. Organization has also decreased . Outflow good. Sea surface temperature is around 26C. System lies under a strong upper divergence region in a moderate sheared environment. System is tracking west southwest due to the sub-tropical ridge located to the south. Dvorak analysis based on shear pattern with low level circulation center about 1/3 degree from strong temperature gradient yields DT=3.5, MET=3.0, PT=3.5. Final Dvorak intensity based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/4.0/W1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===================
12 HRS: 22.5S 173.6W - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 23.4S 174.9W - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 26.5S 176.0W - 45 knots (CAT 1) Out of Area of Responsibility

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
STORM WARNING
TEMPETE TROPICAL MODEREE CORENTIN (03-20152016)
22:00 PM RET January 21 2016
==================================
Northeast of Rodrigues Island

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Corentin (987 hPa) located at 16.7S 73.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 10 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=============
60 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 120 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 230 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
==============
120 NM radius from the center, extending up to 250 NM in the southeastern quadrant, up to 300 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 330 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS: 18.4S 71.6E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 20.4S 70.7E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 24.3S 70.9E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 27.1S 73.4E - 55 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)

Additional Information
================
Over the last hours, deep convection has clearly develop near the center, mainly in the eastern semi-circle, wrapping around the center. 1702z ASCAT swaths cover the eastern half of the circulation and show a large maximum wind radius, with the max winds in the eastern part of the circulation.

Over the next 12 hours, Corentin is likely to track southwestward, over the northwestern edge of the low to mid-tropospheric ridge. While remaining under a cell of upper level high geopotentials, the system should deepen steadily without any particular environmental constraints.

Tomorrow, with the strengthening of the upper level outflow channel on the southern side, ahead of a polar trough, the low could draw benefit from even better upper level environmental conditions and deepen quite rapidly. Consequently, it should be steered by the mid-level ridge in its east, and track southwestward on Friday, then bend south to south southeastward on Saturday.

From Sunday, ahead of an upper trough, the northwesterly vertical wind shear should increase and the ocean heat content decrease south of 27.0S. The low may weaken and begin an extratropical transition from Sunday evening. The weakened system may move temporarily westward over the northern side of the subtropical anticyclone building in its south.

This forecast is based on the available numerical weather prediction models, in rather good agreement.
Could be a game changer if it developed further north than forecasted!

Quoting 411. ILwthrfan:


Appears to be a bit north of forecasted track, but that is only going off water vapor imagery. Lowest pressures at the surface maybe south of what we see on the imagery...mabye a titled rotation to the NE as you go vertical within in the storm... don't know just a guess..




Quoting 403. barbamz:

Latest Reuters roundup:
U.S. East Coast girds for up to 2-1/2 feet of snow
WASHINGTON | By Ian Simpson, US | Thu Jan 21, 2016 3:16pm EST


(Click to enlarge).
Good night with a last current impression from the Alp cams. Tomorrow a band of bad weather will cross us in Europe, causing very severe conditions with ice rain and black ice in Germany ...
Good night, Barb. Nice picture of the temperature inversion trapping smoke that commonly builds up in winter in mountain valleys. I don't know what the rules are there, but there are "alert" days when no one can use their fireplaces in Lake Tahoe and Reno. Landlords are supposed to remove the firewood and post a notice in rental ski condos on such days. I hear people have been known to sneak in wood purchased at the local convenience store for fires anyway. I don't know if that's true, but the last time I was in Lake Tahoe in winter, the local 7-11 had more firewood stacked outside than most legitimate wood yards. :-)
Quoting 412. JNFlori30A:

It just won't quit today.. the forecast kept showing the cessation of precipitation from this morning and now with that big green and yellow blob heading our from from the Gulf it appears that we will have continuous wettage into tomorrow morning. BLOWN FORECAST ALERT!! and I was planning on tennis today :(


Yeah there wasn't even precip in the forecast for us today as earlier as last night, it was expected to reach near 70 for high. Instead we've been stuck in the 50's with periods of cold rain, lol. This morning I had to commute to school with rain and a temp of 41. I normally am a rain lover, but not when I have to walk across campus in a 41 degree light rain shower, lol.
Sar, is there anything that you do not know? What in the world are you doing in the boonies of southeast Alabama?!
Quoting 384. sar2401:

The cancellations already taking place as a precaution will join those the inevitable weather delays and cancellations cause as this storm really gets cranked up. All those planes stuck at some other airport means those same planes needed for a later flight either won't get to another airport or will arrive many hours late. The later the flights, the more pilots will go on the law, meaning they will be required to take the mandatory 12 hour rest period, even if they just spent six hours sitting in the cockpit waiting for a takeoff slot. Less available pilots means even planes on the ground in a city with no snow won't be going anywhere. The snowball downhill (pun intended) is going to lead to an almost complete shutdown in US commercial airline traffic by Sunday. Anyone planning a flight this weekend should either plan on staying home or finding a hotel now, before the rush begins.
Looks like the low is further north does it not Pat?

Quoting 417. Patrap:

Norman, OK WFO – False Color RGB Loop



Controls are ACTIVE
Quoting 415. TampaSpin:

Could be a game changer if it developed further north than forecasted!


The low track hasn't changed much over the last couple of model runs, and I really don't expect it to now. Much like what we see with tropical systems, there will be an occasional wiggle, but maybe only 25 miles or so either way. Of course, even such a small deviation in track can have quite an effect on actual snowfall. As I've been saying all along, the only way anyone will know for sure is four to six hours in advance, and then only by following observations and synoptics of what the low track and the area the attendant precipitation shield is covering.
I always defers to the HPC,SPC,NWS as I am not a met and never forecast.

Quoting 379. Patrap:


SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 6
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
215 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD EASTWARD FROM
LOUISIANA INTO MISSISSIPPI LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING. THE STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE RISK OF A
FEW TORNADOES...DAMAGING GUSTS...AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF JACKSON
MISSISSIPPI TO 30 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF HOUMA LOUISIANA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 5...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.


...THOMPSON
I agree....many that think they won't be affected could! Just by a 25mile move to the north or south!

Quoting 422. sar2401:

The low track hasn't changed much over the last couple of model runs, and I really don't expect it to now. Much like what we see with tropical systems, there will be an occasional wiggle, but maybe only 25 miles or so either way. Of course, even such a small deviation in track can have quite an effect on actual snowfall. As I've been saying all along, the only way anyone will know for sure is four to six hours in advance, and then only by following observations and synoptics of what the low track and the area the attendant precipitation shield is covering.
If the low shifts more southerly, would that mean more snow possible for Alabama?
Quoting 378. sar2401:

That's principally due the continuing shift south in the path of the main low and the ULL that's going to develop later today and track even further south. There's a certain amount of safe rather than sorry going on, at least in part due the the recent history of storms here and in Florida, since the instability parameters are marginal at best to support any severe storms. Doesn't mean there's no chance of severe storms, but what happens here earlier tonight and tomorrow morning will be a pretty good indicator of what's likely to happen tomorrow in Florida.
662  
WGUS54 KJAN 212111  
FFWJAN  
MSC051-163-220015-  
/O.NEW.KJAN.FF.W.0001.160121T2111Z-160122T0015Z/  
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
FLASH FLOOD WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
311 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A  
 
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
YAZOO COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...  
SOUTHERN HOLMES COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...  
 
* UNTIL 615 PM CST  
 
* AT 311 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING  
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE  
ALREADY FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.  
 
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...  
YAZOO CITY...DURANT...BENTON...FRANKLIN...LEXINGTON...GO ODMAN...  
PICKENS...VAUGHAN...MYRLEVILLE...LITTLE YAZOO...PHOENIX...  
TINSLEY...EBENEZER...BROZVILLE...TOLARVILLE...COXB URG...BENTONIA...  
EDEN AND SATARTIA.  
 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED  
AREA.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD  
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3311 8982 3307 8982 3300 8988 3291 8992  
3289 8996 3282 9002 3261 9034 3260 9035  
3258 9040 3258 9045 3256 9045 3252 9050  
3254 9059 3285 9055 3312 9012  
 
 
 
CME  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.


The Nexlab MS Page

The Nexlab AR Page

The Nexlab LA Page


Quoting 420. Alagirl:

Sar, is there anything that you do not know? What in the world are you doing in the boonies of southeast Alabama?!
LOL. I only know about how airport traffic is handled because I was a private pilot and was required to know such things. I also spent a fair bit of time flying for both business and pleasure, and some of that was spent curled up in various positions on terminal floors. I hated flying (or trying to fly) in the kinds of weather ahead for this weekend. I'm in the boonies of SE Alabama now precisely because I'm far away from things like crowds, high real estate price, crime, and blizzards. Even the people are nicer, and even if you're a Yankee. :-)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Just noticed CPC issued their Feb precip outlook, predictably, itlooks wet for FL.

Quoting 426. Alagirl:

If the low shifts more southerly, would that mean more snow possible for Alabama?
Probably not, just because the low is not originating in the Gulf. Low track is a lot more important in those cases. With this low, and especially upper level low late tonight and tomorrow, it more depends on the amount of cold air available to our north. The warm air advection we're having is also going up the Mississippi and Ohio Valley, which is relatively warming the air there from the teens into the mid-20's. By the time more cold air invades, most of the moisture will be gone, at least from central and south Alabama. As I said before, there still might be enough for some minor accumulations around Birmingham and Tuscaloosa but really nothing other than a chance for a kid-size flurry here, and that's still an outside chance. The good thing is that the changeover doesn't look like it will include any ice. That's the only thing a position change in the low could affect at this point.
Quoting 406. nrtiwlnvragn:



Irony will be when you graduate you are employed by the NWS, working at WPC doing QPF, following their operating procedures.


I've noted many times of my utmost respect for the NWS, and I do hope to work for the NWS eventually.
With that said, I'm not going to agree with everything the NWS forecasts. Also the WPC has a different way of forecasting compared to local NWS offices, and each offices varies as well, in the same way, so does the SPC and NHC differ, and this also applies to individual forecasters.

The WPC tends to follow model outputs more aggressively than typically you'll see with local NWS offices, and so their forecasts can change drastically within a few updates, this is especially true with the QPF. I generally forecast in a way that is more like local NWS offices and how most local NWS forecasts do. Now again, there are even variances among forecasters, bur for the most part, the approach I take is a conservative "wait and see" blended guidance approach.

Also, even if I did work for the WPC, sure I would learn to follow their way of doing things, and why shouldn't I? I'd be too proud, too big for my britches, and foolish if I ruined a chance to work their over my disagreements. Disagreeing is part of being human, but what I don't do is let it stop me from learning from others who disagree, and learn to get along. Given the place is run by people with way more experience in meteorology and school then me, you better believe I'd be asking questions, and learning their methods.

Much of the worlds violence, ignorance, racism, hatred, discrimination and more comes from having a proud and stubbornly narrow view, of which we all can be prone to, and though I can fall into as well like anyone else, for that very reason I make it my goal to avoid such a mindset as best as I can.
Quoting 341. Gearsts:

There's a new Kelvin wave and not much cold waters building like the 97,98 El nino. This El nino will takes more time to transition later this year.

Forget it this Nino is done.
SPC AC 211731

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FL
PANHANDLE AND NRN/WRN FL INTO SERN AL/SRN GA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT
RISK...INCLUDING ALL OF FL AND NEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTS...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTH GEORGIA EARLY FRIDAY.

...SYNOPSIS...
A UPPER LOW/SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE CROSSING THE
SERN U.S. FRI...WITH ACCOMPANYING STRONG/CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM EXPANDING TO AFFECT A LARGE PORTION OF THE
ERN U.S. -- PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...RIDGING ALOFT WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...WHILE AN ERN PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE W COAST LATE.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT -- TRAILING FROM A LOW OVER NRN AL A
THE START OF THE PERIOD -- IS FORECAST TO SURGE EWD ACROSS GA AND FL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...CLEARING THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING AS THE LOW CROSSES THE COASTAL CAROLINAS VICINITY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS -- AND SOME SEVERE RISK -- WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
STORM SYSTEM AS IT CROSSES THE SERN CONUS.

...THE SOUTHEAST STATES...
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT
SERN AL/SRN GA. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED...FAIRLY
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND
FIELD SUGGEST ONGOING RISK FOR OCCASIONAL ROTATING STORMS
-- AND
ASSOCIATED RISK FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ALONG WITH LOCALLY
GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS.

WITH TIME...SEVERE RISK WILL SPREAD ACROSS GA...AND LATER IN THE
EVENING MAY AFFECT THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AS THE LOW SHIFTS NEWD.
MEANWHILE FARTHER S...WINDS SHOULD VEER ACROSS FL AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...LIMITING TO SOME DEGREE THE TORNADO RISK.
WHILE AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...GREATER SEVERE
RISK APPEARS TO BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
AS THE FRONTAL BAND OF
STORMS MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS WRN FL BEFORE SHIFTING INLAND AND
GRADUALLY WEAKENING. RISK SHOULD END FROM W-E THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON AS STORMS -- AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT -- MOVE
OFFSHORE.
After days of saying "we would not see any severe weather" with this next front, the local news meteorologist just said "we could see some strong thunderstorms and some of them could become severe" tomorrow.



Icing Product Image
Victor
I could see there being a good possibility of severe weather tomorrow. I know of a few events that were rearranged around this in East Central Florida..