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Wunderground launches BestForecast; Giovanna kills ten in Madagascar

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:41 PM GMT on February 15, 2012

Weather Underground's meteorologists have spent over five years developing and testing a powerful forecasting system called BestForecast, which has been used to provide all of our forecasts for non-U.S. locations for the past several years. After some final improvements made in the past year, the forecasts from BestForecast have become competitive with forecasts from the National Weather Service (NWS) over much of the U.S. As of today, BestForecast forecasts are the default on the site. What's cool about BestForecast is that we can make its forecasts specific for any site that collects weather data. We gather several years of weather data from a site and optimize the forecast to suit the unique microclimate of a particular station. Thus, "backyard meteorologists" that own and maintain one of the more than 22,000 personal weather stations that record and send live weather conditions to Weather Underground will now have a forecast specifically generated for their own backyard. BestForecast also gives the expected precipitation amounts (in inches), and provides ten days of forecast information, instead of the seven days provided by the National Weather Service.

Users can evaluate the reliability of these forecasts themselves and get a second opinion by switching back to the National Weather Service forecasts that were previously published. In some areas, the National Weather Service will out-perform BestForecast, so play around with using both, and see what works the best for your location. Web site visitors can switch between best forecast and NWS forecasts using the switch "BestForecast" ON|OFF at the top of the forecast page. To create transparency in our forecasts, wunderground.com will publish the recent accuracy of its temperature forecasts over the past 20 days for every location, alongside the accuracy of the NWS. The accuracy is given in terms of the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), in degrees Centigrade. A lower RMSE is better. The "MaxT" number is the verification of the daily high temperature forecasts, while the "Average" number is for the hour-by-hour forecasts.

A video demonstration of BestForecast is available on the wunderground.com About Our Data page.


Figure 1. Visible image from NASA's Terra satellite of Tropical Cyclone Giovanna over Madagascar, taken at 10:45 UTC Wednesday February 15, 2012. At the time, Giovanna was a tropical storm with 45 mph winds. Note the extensive plume of runoff and sediment stirred up by the storm flowing southwards along the east coast of Madagascar. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Cyclone Giovanna kills ten in Madagascar
At least ten people were killed by Tropical Cyclone Giovanna in Madagascar, which hit the island nation as a powerful Category 3 storm with 125 - 130 mph winds at 22 UTC Monday night. An estimated 600,000 people lived in areas that received hurricane-force winds, but the eyewall of the storm missed the capital of Antananarivo, which received peak winds of 38 mph, gusting to 55 mph. Many remote areas that were affected by the storm have not been heard from yet, so the full extent of Giovanna's damage is not yet known. Giovanna is currently in the Mozambique Channel between Madagascar and Mozambique as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds, and is slowly intensifying. Latest computer model forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models conflict, with the ECMWF model predicting the storm will swing around and pass very close to the southern tip of Madagascar next week, and the GFS model predicting landfall in Mozambique this weekend. Meanwhile, Madagascar must also keep an eye on Tropical Cyclone Thirteen, which is gathering strength over the waters to the east of the island, and is on a course that will bring it close to Madagascar next week.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

thanks doc
i will check out the feature
sounds interesting
That is very cool. Thanks Doc!

Those storms just West of Houston are firing up really fast
i figured that the death toll would unfortunately rise....Thx Dr. Masters
So, how do we switch back to the NWS zone forecast?

I must say that today's forecast for my location (Olathe, Kansas) is somewhat ludicrous. "High of 55F with a windchill of 28F. Winds from the SSE at 5-10 mph. Chance of rain 100%."

Windchill of 28? While it's 55 out? Seriously? I'm assuming you meant that wind chills could be as low as 28 in the morning (which is also a stretch) but the way it's worded that is not clear.
Also: there's a reason that NWS and most outlets do not give 10 forecasts...they're not that accurate!
I use classic view: does this mean I will have no option to turn off Best Forecast.

The more I look at your forecasts, the less I think of them. Local forecasters like NWS and news outlets just give better forecasts. Doesn't matter how much use you make of the backyard data, a local forecaster with experience is just more accurate.
Ah, this is what happened! The temperatures in this part of Vermont are forecast to be at least 10 degrees higher this week on Wunderground's forecasts as compared with NWS. I think this time NWS may be correct for this one as we're near the NWS high with overcast skies and not warming up much. It will be good to have another forecast to watch though!
I'm not impressed with this BestForecast either. The forecast for my home in Baltimore zip uses a station with a patchy record.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
gee if that last few frames pan out, look out eastern seaboard, a nor'easter is coming your way, ty for posting that.
BBC hasn't updated their Giovanna story in over 24 hours. Sure a lot more deaths will be reported.
13. Inyo
also just saw the nor'easter. I only follow the GFS but that seems like a huge flip flop in the models - this run also showed much more rain into CA in the long term. Could the pattern change finally be here? I doubt it but it is possible
I wonder how these little fellas would weather a storm like Giovanna since they're native to Madagascar. Link
That is too cute!

Quoting HurrikanEB:
I wonder how these little fellas would weather a storm like Giovanna since they're native to Madagascar. Link
I doubt this nor-easter that is forecast will actually verify.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
That is too cute!

Bet they'd make great fish-bait. j/k

I wouldn't use em but would sure attempt to tie a "fly" if I was fishing locally.
And here we have the ugliest ASCAT of any TC i have ever observed

Thirteen
Iran denies cutting off oil exports to six EU countries, heralds nuclear advances
Reuters Feb 15, 2012 – 8:06 AM ET | Last Updated: Feb 15, 2012 8:33 AM ET REUTERS/Jumana El Heloueh

TEHRAN — Iran’s Oil Ministry denied state media reports on the Islamic state stopping its crude exports to six European countries on Wednesday.

“We deny this report … If such a decision is made, it will be announced by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council,” a spokesman for the ministry told Reuters.

Iran’s English language Press TV had earlier said Tehran has stopped exporting oil to France, Portugal, Italy, Greece, Netherlands and Spain.


The Severe storm is the easternmost one

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC005-347-405-419-151915-
/O.NEW.KSHV.SV.W.0027.120215T1814Z-120215T1915Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1214 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL ANGELINA COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN NACOGDOCHES COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN SAN AUGUSTINE COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHERN SHELBY COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 115 PM CST

* AT 1214 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF ETOILE...OR 16 MILES EAST OF
LUFKIN...AND MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.


* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MARTINSVILLE...SAN AUGUSTINE...BLAND LAKE AND NEUVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3180 9437 3167 9401 3123 9433 3130 9453
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 201DEG 29KT 3133 9443

$$

ITO
Thailand smog today. Kinda lowers the real estate appraisal. 500 miles north to south in this satellite photo.

Those who like to track many tropical cyclones in the Atlantic will be dissapointed if this Euro forecast of MSLP pans out,as it shows high pressures in the Atlantic Basin for June,July and August. However,the main factor will be ENSO as the transition from La Nina to Neutral takes place in the Spring. The big question is if El Nino will show up by the Summer or fall or it stays in Neutral.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Those who like to track many tropical cyclones in the Atlantic will be dissapointed if this Euro forecast of MSLP pans out,as it shows high pressures in the Atlantic Basin for June,July and August. However,the main factor will be ENSO as the transition from La Nina to Neutral takes place in the Spring. The big question is if El Nino will show up by the Summer or fall or it stays in Neutral.



This kind of stuff posted by the government should be banned. They can't predict $hit. Just like it was gonna be a dry winter with no rain in TX when in fact it was the complete opposite. The government sucks.
Quoting RitaEvac:


This kind of stuff posted by the government should be banned. They can't predict $hit. Just like it was gonna be a dry winter with no rain in TX when in fact it was the complete opposite. The government sucks.
if i remember dr masters forecast for you it was the same remember no relief from the drought. a week later we had the leftovers of an e pac system and now all these wet fronts good for you
Quoting RitaEvac:


This kind of stuff posted by the government should be banned. They can't predict $hit. Just like it was gonna be a dry winter with no rain in TX when in fact it was the complete opposite. The government sucks.


ECMWF is the European model. Are you saying Europe sucks?
Reverse Climategate?

Link

Link
Quoting Skyepony:


ECMWF is the European model. Are you saying Europe sucks?


ECMWF is a very good model for forecasts..reffering to the usual 10 day and less :D
Quiet on the Blog today. Most long term weather forcasting is problematic for obvious reasons and subject to many short-term variables. As far as the upcoming H-season we will have to just see how conditions pan out. The US has been very lucky the past several years given the relatively high number of storms so it's really not about the numbers but the ultimate trajectory and landfall location. I am always remninded of Andrew in a relatively quiet El Nino year.
Quoting RitaEvac:


This kind of stuff posted by the government should be banned. They can't predict $hit. Just like it was gonna be a dry winter with no rain in TX when in fact it was the complete opposite. The government sucks.


Not to pick on you, but I just have to post this. Best scene in 'The Life of (non Baltimore) Brian'.
What have the Romans ever done for us?
Link
The Febuary Euro forecast for ENSO calls for warm Neutral by the Summer.

Dr Masters~ Really like the RSME feature. I've been toggling between the two for a while now. Used to do the math from time to time to see which was better.

Getting a weatherplug for my PWS so it was uploading to Wunderground 24/7 helped immensity. Lately for my PWS~ Bestforecast & NWS have been near neck & neck with Bestforecast out-preforming NWS for the daily high.
ECMWF forecasting a windy day for me next wendesday(20+kts). GFS has windy day for me this sunday(20kts)
Quoting Skyepony:


ECMWF is the European model. Are you saying Europe sucks?


lol, well they are bankrupt and can't seem to leverage their money...
Iran trumpets nuclear breakthrough as EU oil threats send crude prices spiking

The intimation of a cut sent oil prices spiking. Brent North Sea crude rose to $119.99 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate light sweet crude soared as high as $102.54 per barrel.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Those who like to track many tropical cyclones in the Atlantic will be dissapointed if this Euro forecast of MSLP pans out,as it shows high pressures in the Atlantic Basin for June,July and August. However,the main factor will be ENSO as the transition from La Nina to Neutral takes place in the Spring. The big question is if El Nino will show up by the Summer or fall or it stays in Neutral.



I wouldn't put much stock in 6 months ahead of time forecasts.

The skill level is only around 1 or 2 percent above chance.

In some cases, they don't even do as good as chance,which may even imply somehow over-thinking the problem.
Quoting RitaEvac:


This kind of stuff posted by the government should be banned. They can't predict [anything]. Just like it was gonna be a dry winter with no rain in TX when in fact it was the complete opposite. The government sucks.


You might want to re-read the associated information with regards to seasonal CPC forecasts. They are probabilistic and mostly based upon past conditions. No two seasons are identical and there are exceptions to the average. ENSO is one of the most predictable, but it's not only ENSO's teleconnections that matter.

You might also want to review the source of the ECMWF model. Hint: it's nickname is the "Euro" model.
No thanks on the "BestForecast". It's far too general and doesn't capture the nuances that the NWS provides for local areas. I don't understand why this would be made the default forecast, but thanks for at least letting us toggle it off.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The Febuary Euro forecast for ENSO calls for warm Neutral by the Summer.



National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) mean is a little more agressive towards Nino, with GFDL really agressive.


Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Reverse Climategate?

Link

Link
I saw that yesterday when it broke. Pretty convincing evidence of the denialist wedge strategy, if you ask me. (Not that further evidence was needed; anyone with a functioning brain can see where the dollars are, and for what purpose they're being spent.)
Looks like an average season this year. 10 to 12 storms max as El-Nino looks like it's coming and it could be extremely strong by end of October.
Quoting Neapolitan:
I saw that yesterday when it broke. Pretty convincing evidence of the denialist wedge strategy, if you ask me. (Not that further evidence was needed; anyone with a functioning brain can see where the dollars are, and for what purpose they're being spent.)


+100
Thanks Jeff...
Is this change the reason why the Mobile App for wunderground has turned so bizzare in the last few days? We don't need to be told the temperature is in F (like 77F), because obviously it's not in C!

Moreover, what is the point in a forecast that goes out 11-12 days? That is silly, rather like weather.com giving a ten day forecast based largely on climatalogical norms.

Go back to the old way. Please.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
DC gets Dual Polarization radar, finally!!!


GOOD!!!



U.S. weather radar network gets upgrade
By Doyle Rice, USA TODAY
Updated 1/23/2012 12:57 AM


After a year that saw hundreds of Americans killed in severe weather, a new radar system is being installed at all 160 National Weather Service forecast offices around the USA.

The weather radar will be used to better predict, identify and forecast all forms of precipitation and storms, including the biggest killers: tornadoes, flash floods and hurricanes.

"This is the most significant upgrade to the nation's weather radar network since Doppler radar was first installed in the early 1990s," said Jack Hayes, weather service director.

The new radar, known as "dual-polarization" or "dual pol," should help forecasters better pinpoint the type of precipitation and the rate at which it is falling, as well as better identify tornadoes.

"Dual-polarization technology provides significantly more information and clearer pictures of current weather conditions, helping weather service meteorologists provide more accurate and timely forecasts," Hayes said.

Most of the weather radar that Americans see on television, online and on mobile devices comes from the National Weather Service. Commercial weather services %u2014 such as The Weather Channel, AccuWeather and the Weather Underground%u2014 take the raw radar data from the weather service and make it more user friendly, according to weather service meteorologist and radar expert Paul Schlatter.

Twenty dual-pol radars have been installed, and 109 are scheduled for 2012, said Chris Vaccaro, weather service spokesman. The $50 million project should be complete by May 2013.

"The real benefits to the public are better forecasts and warnings," Schlatter said.

Current weather radars transmit and receive pulses of radio waves that only measure the horizontal dimensions of targets (such as cloud and precipitation droplets). The dual-pol radar transmits and receives the pulses in both horizontal and vertical dimensions.

The weather service says this should lead to better estimation of the size and distribution of raindrops, snowflakes, hailstones and drizzle, as well as improving forecasters' ability to identify areas of extremely heavy rainfall that are closely linked with deadly flash floods.

It will also help during tornado outbreaks. "We will have far more detailed information about what the radar is scanning," Schlatter said.

If there is a tornado on the ground, he said, the radar will detect debris, such as flying grass and leaves. Forecasters will then be able to alert the public to the tornado's presence. This will be especially useful when tornadoes can't be seen, such as at night or when they are wrapped by rain.
Dual-pol radar will also help identify the types of winter precipitation. Although current images often show different colors for different precipitation (usually green for rain, purple for mixed precipitation and blue for snow), those images are really only an estimate of what is out there, Schlatter said.
Quoting AlwaysThinkin:


Not to pick on you, but I just have to post this. Best scene in 'The Life of (non Baltimore) Brian'.
What have the Romans ever done for us?
Link


Good skit, but quite a bit of over-simplification. It's also technically wrong.

The Romans often brought slavery and forced gladiator fights to people too.

Aqueducts, indoor plumbing and multi-storied architecture existed in the Minoan civilization, pre-dating the Roman and Greek's similar achievements by nearly two millenia.

Irrigation, early water pumps, electroplating, and possibly mechanized rock saws existed in Israel, Egypt, and Babylon at least as far back as 1000 to 1600 years B.C.

The Bible mentions one of the oldest, if not THE oldest reference to large, mechanical siege engines.

2 Chronicles 26, 14, And Uzziah prepared for them throughout all the host shields, and spears, and helmets, and habergeons, and bows, and slings to cast stones.

15And he made in Jerusalem engines (Hebrew "chishabown", for "contrivance" or "warlike machine",) invented by cunning men, to be on the towers and upon the bulwarks, to shoot arrows and great stones withal. And his name spread far abroad; for he was marvellously helped, till he was strong.

Elsewhere in the Bible, "Engine" is a different root word, which was used for a battering ram.

But clearly, the machines described here are large scale siege weapons which shoot appropriate sized arrows and large stones, much as the trebuchet and scorpion tale invented in the end of the Roman era, or later in Medieval Europe.

It's likely that the ancient Egyptians were trading with the ancient Minoans.

These are clear, ancient examples of how "high" technology and complex machines were actually invented, in some cases, thousands of years earlier than perhaps what people may be aware from normal education or information channels.

Our culture has forgotten much about it's origins through the advancement and reliance of modern technology.
Days in a row without a Major Cane U.S landfall. Will the 2012 Atlantic season end the streak?



Link
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Looks like an average season this year. 10 to 12 storms max as El-Nino looks like it's coming and it could be extremely strong by end of October.
Bring on that El Nino that should completely end the drought in Texas for awhile anyway. In 80s here with very high humidity, Sunday it was snowing and sleeting.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
DC gets Dual Polarization radar, finally!!!


Imagine 2 or 3 of those in space on polar orbit on different planes, like the windsat and ascat. It would be perfect for getting better data about both tropical weather and other weather systems.
50. Inyo
Quoting RitaEvac:


This kind of stuff posted by the government should be banned. They can't predict $hit. Just like it was gonna be a dry winter with no rain in TX when in fact it was the complete opposite. The government sucks.


um, the model is called the 'Euro'. What do you suppose that means and who do you suppose maintains this model? Hint: not the US Government.
51. Inyo
Temps peaked at 42 today and are dropping... NWS called for 41 as the high and Wunderground's new forecast called for 50. Unless there's a strong warm front on the way, looks like NWS wins this round.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Reverse Climategate?

Link

Link


Since there really wasn't a "climategate" to begin with, there can't be a reverse.

After reading through the docs and emails in those links, my reaction can be summed up in two words: "Well, duh!". None of it is really all that surprising, and just confirms what those who follow climate science have known for a while; the loudest skeptics/deniers are on the take. Which shouldn't be all that surprising considering that the Heartland Institue has done this before (they paired up in the 90's with Philip Morris to have their "scientists" discredit the real scientists looking into the health issues caused by second hand smoke).

One thing I did find interesting was that the Heartland Institue seems to get a lot of it's money from a single large "anonymous" donor. I was under the impression that the Koch's bankrolled the organization, but apparently they don't pay in as much as this "anonymous" donor.
Quoting DavidHOUTX:
That is very cool. Thanks Doc!

Those storms just West of Houston are firing up really fast


Choo choo, here comes the train!
I was getting ready to walk home today from school. I put my winter jacket on and all..got outside and it's T-shirt weather! Where did the winter go!? Now, it was only 6C, but that is more than hot enough for T-shirts up here in the usual "cold north".

Also, politics in Ontario has heated rapidly today. A new plan to reduce thousands of jobs and raise taxes exponentially has been introduced. Unlike in America, the tax increases are supported by the conservatives so those appear likely to occur.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 10-20112012
22:00 PM RET February 15 2012
=====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 10 (1000 hPa) located at 14.7S 83.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
30 NM radius from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5/W0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 16.2S 82.2E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 16.3S 80.6E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 17.5S 78.1E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 18.6S 74.4E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
=======================

According to the very last available satellite pictures, the little central dense overcast pattern is degrading. The ASCAT swath at 1534 PM UTC suggests a poorly defined low level circulation reaching near gale force wind at least in the southern semi-circle.

The low level environment is not favorable, with a very poor polar inflow and quite not existing monsoon flow, and despite of quite correct upper level conditions during the next 24 to 36 hours with a good polar outflow, intensification may remain slow. Beyond this hour, the increasing vertical wind shear should limit the development of the system despite of the improving of both trades and monsoon flows.

System might continue to track west-south-westward on the northern edge of the subtropical high pressures rebuilding in the south.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Service will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
22:00 PM RET February 15 2012
================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Giovanna (994 hPa) located at 24.1S 41.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 9 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
20 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
40 NM radius from the center extending up to 60 NM in the western semi-circle and up to 80 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/18 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 24.9S 40.9E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 25.2S 40.1E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 25.9S 38.7E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
72 HRS: 26.4S 40.2E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
=====================

Convection has organized in a curved band feature west and south of the broad low level circulation during the past six hours. Microwave picture TRMM 1511 PM UTC (37ghz) depict a broad but well defined low level circulation.

System is expected to keep on tracking south south-westward within the next 12 hours. Beyond, it is forecast to adopt a slow hook shape track westward and after eastward on and after 48 hour. System should indeed remain under the influence of weak and opposite steering flows in the middle troposphere between 12-48 hours. Beyond 48 hours, a mid troposphere ridge should rebuilt in its northeast and lead the system eastward.

System might rapidly intensify with good environmental conditions (weak vertical wind shear, ocean heat content very high and good low level inflow). Intensity should level off between day 2 and day 3/day 4 due to the slow movement of the system.

The present RSMC official forecast track is close to ECMWF model. However, deterministic models and ECMWF ensemble forecast are also highly dispersed.

This important differences seem to be product by intensity forecasts that are more or less strong by different models

On Sunday, landfall over Mozambique is not excluded. But now, that is not the RSMC option for official forecast track.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #28
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
6:00 AM FST February 16 2012
===================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category One (990 hPa) located at 21.9S 177.3W has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 4 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared radar imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Gale Force Winds
==================
20 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
50 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
50 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
20 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Organization remains same in past 24 hours. Convection has slightly increased in the last 24 hours. System lies just to the south of an upper ridge axis with good divergence aloft. Vertical wind shear is moderate, system is moving south towards a high shear environment. Sea surface temperature around 26C.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.5 wrap on log10 spiral, yielding DT=2.5, PT=3.0 and MET=3.0, final Dvorak based on MET.

T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Most global models agree on a southward movement with gradual
Weakening.

Forecast and Intensity:
=======================

12 HRS: 22.9S 177.4W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 24.0S 177.1W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS: 26.0S 175.4W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on TC JASMINE will be issued at 2:30 AM UTC..
The March 11th strong earthquake off the east coast of Honshu in Japan has created tons of debris caused by the big tsunami that has moved across the Pacific and is about to reach the West Coast.

Link
Quoting nofailsafe:


Choo choo, here comes the train!


It doesn't look like we will really get much out of this. North of Houston is getting soaked!
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Days in a row without a Major Cane U.S landfall. Will the 2012 Atlantic season end the streak?



Link


I think it's ridiculous that Ike and Gustav aren't considered major hurricanes at landfall. Ike did more damage than every storm that's ever hit the USA with the exception of Katrina.
61. MTWX
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


It doesn't look like we will really get much out of this. North of Houston is getting soaked!

A bunch of flood and flash flood warnings going out for that area!
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I think it's ridiculous that Ike and Gustav aren't considered major hurricanes at landfall. Ike did more damage than every storm that's ever hit the USA with the exception of Katrina.


I couldn't agree with you more. I sat right here in Houston when Ike's eye went right over my house! It was quite an experience. I live in a pretty large apartment complex inside the 610 loop and to hear the constant 110 mph winds tear the gutters off everything was pretty crazy. Ike blew the chimneys off every apt complex in my area. It also tore half of Reliant Stadiums roof off and that roof was built to handle a CAT 5 Hurricane.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I think it's ridiculous that Ike and Gustav aren't considered major hurricanes at landfall. Ike did more damage than every storm that's ever hit the USA with the exception of Katrina.

Yeah, Ike was definitely a major hurricane at landfall. Gustav is more debatable.
Quoting MTWX:

A bunch of flood and flash flood warnings going out for that area!


Yes Indeed! North of Houston is really getting a lot of rain today.
We are finally saying goodbye to Jasmine!
and I though winter was over for us here in NYC, BUT;


big NYC snow? rain? what do you think
Quoting MTWX:

A bunch of flood and flash flood warnings going out for that area!


Need a better water management system.

With all these models able to predict where excesses and lacks of rainfall will be days, weeks, and even months in advance, we should be pumping water to and from places ahead of time to take up the slack.

A "smart water grid" would help alleviate both the flooding of the Mississippi basin and the droughts in Texas and other plain states, but pumping water ahead of time.

You don't need enough water to save every tree and blade of grass. You only need enough extra to save the livestock and the hay fields and human crops. This would require much less than say, trying to water all life.

I propose more advanced systems, including pipes and pumps, to capture run-off and pump it to lakes and ponds for storage...even if you have to pump it back up-hill in some cases.

This would also help reduce flash-flooding, because you could set up the system to pump water some place else. That wouldn't prevent 100 year floods, but it would reduce the impact of flash floods in general.

Like take 2 or 3 meter radius pipes and run them from the Mississippi at about the Arkansas/Louisiana border, across to the plains states, with junctions along the way. This way you can pump water to whoever needs it, from whoever has it, instead of farmers relying on local irrigation systems and chance to provide water.

Local irrigation systems are useless in regional droughts, so why not have a multi-regional, irrigation system managed by the member states?


I just get sick of most of these droughts and floods which are theoretically preventable, or at least reducible, in mutually beneficial ways.


This entire project would pay for itself in livestock and produce in just one year, even if it was an inter-state project between Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Missouri.

Now unfortunately, this requires the Federal Government because it would fall under "interstate commerce", but the point is, this is theoretically feasible, and should only cost a few hundred million to a few billion.

It would have paid for itself in 2011 alone.
Off-Topic at least 365 prisoners had died here in Honduras after a fire start in the Penal of Comayagua.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
and I though winter was over for us here in NYC, BUT;


big NYC snow? rain? what do you think
winter ends in 35 days from now lots can happen in 35 days lots
there will be several large events coming up to take us into spring
Quoting allancalderini:
Off-Topic at least 365 prisoners had died here in Honduras after a fire start in the Penal of Comayagua.


Just wondering.

Aren't prisons typically made of concrete and metal?

How did a fire get big enough to kill that many people? Even with them locked in their cells, I don't understand what was burning to kill that many people? Floor polish? paint? Ceiling tiles? Was there wooden flooring or wall panels?

That just doesn't make sense at all.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, Ike was definitely a major hurricane at landfall. Gustav is more debatable.


Just imagine if Ike took his original forecasted path straight into South Florida. He would've been at least a Cat. 4 and the damage just as bad, if not even worse.
Kind of interesting to troll over the numbers of some of the concerned (that left their location) over Bestforecast.. Really showing the RMSE has been a key improvement. With RMSE the 20 day average of error the low number is the winner..


inyo~ WU wins on your max temp with NWS winning the average.
The quality of the forecasted high temperature for this day is good. MaxT RMSE [2.07], Average RMSE [2.41]
The National Weather Service forecast quality is good. MaxT RMSE [2.23], Average RMSE [1.46]

oreodogsghost~ WU wins for average temps, NWS wins high temps.
The quality of the forecasted high temperature for this day is good. MaxT RMSE [2.24], Average RMSE [1.68]
The National Weather Service forecast quality is good. MaxT RMSE [2.09], Average RMSE [2.10]

rwdobson~ Interesting both the NWS & Bestforecast are having difficult calling it for your area. You might can use both to help come up with your own forecast based on the usual error of both the models. NWS is slightly ahead.
The quality of the forecast high temperature for this day is fair. MaxT RMSE [3.07], Average RMSE [2.21]
The National Weather Service forecast quality is fair. MaxT RMSE [2.54], Average RMSE [2.01]

My place in WNC Bestforecast is rated good & NWS fair (bestforecast microclimate advantage showing). In FL they are both excellent. MS both Good. Most places it's comparable, a few better, a few worse..


Rita~ You got a point there..

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
winter ends in 35 days from now lots can happen in 35 days lots


I sure hope so, the long range GFS has some major cold shots with possible severe weather ahead of them.
But I can wait till spring for tornados, right now I wan't snow.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Looks like an average season this year. 10 to 12 storms max as El-Nino looks like it's coming and it could be extremely strong by end of October.


Can you post the link to the forecast of a strong El Niño? Thx
Quoting caneswatch:


Just imagine if Ike took his original forecasted path straight into South Florida. He would've been at least a Cat. 4 and the damage just as bad, if not even worse.

Yeah, you would've been screwed. :P
Quoting Skyepony:
Kind of interesting to troll over the numbers of some of the concerned (that left their location) over Bestforecast.. Really showing the RMSE has been a key improvement. With RMSE the 20 day average of error the low number is the winner



Do we know what stations are being used for verification of the forecasts? If they are being verified against personal weather stations, WU might have a better RMS but that wouldn't necessarily mean a better forecast. I've seen some pretty questionable temps reported by PWSs.
Quoting RTSplayer:


Just wondering.

Aren't prisons typically made of concrete and metal?

How did a fire get big enough to kill that many people? Even with them locked in their cells, I don't understand what was burning to kill that many people? Floor polish? paint? Ceiling tiles? Was there wooden flooring or wall panels?

That just doesn't make sense at all.


I have done some interior structural fire fighting. We would train in concrete buildings. Add a little fuel ( hay bails), set it on fire and then put it out. The concrete acts like an oven and it does not take long for consumables to reach a flash point. The room becomes smoke filled and very dark in a very short time. Most, probably, died from smoke inhalation and toxic fumes. BTW, when a hay bail burns, it gives off cyanide gas.
Skye, I looked and here's what WU is saying for forecast quality for my nearest station (KKSOVERL5):

The quality of the forecasted high temperature for this day is good. MaxT RMSE [2.10], Average RMSE [2.24]
The National Weather Service forecast quality is good. MaxT RMSE [1.58], Average RMSE [1.68]

So it looks like quality really varies from station to station even within a small area...in this case it looks like NWS is winning handily. But for some other station nearby, both are doing much worse than they are for this one.

To me, this shows a big problem with trying to tailor forecasts to a specific PWS.
Gotta evening of t-storms lining up upwind of our location.

Since being here in Mid TN I've noticed that any forecast beyond 48 hours is subject to significant change, I don't even look at the 7 day let alone a 10 day..

As to those cute little Madagascar Chameleons.. I bet more than a few will find themselves in Mozambique thanks to Giovanna!


Quoting jrweatherman:


Can you post the link to the forecast of a strong El Niño? Thx

Quoting rwdobson:


Do we know what stations are being used for verification of the forecasts? If they are being verified against personal weather stations, WU might have a better RMS but that wouldn't necessarily mean a better forecast. I've seen some pretty questionable temps reported by PWSs.


We do know what station is being used for verification.. It is which ever station you select..you can select the airport or the one in your neighbor's backyard. The RMSE is located on the forecast page for which ever station you selected & are viewing..it compares the Bestforecast to the NWS forecast given for that same location. That way you can choose the better.. If one has out-preformed the other the last 20 days..your right it might not out-preform it today..but chances are it will. Many locations out of the US like this one..Bestforecast is the only source. It would be better if in those places if the RMSE was still given.
Quoting jrweatherman:


Can you post the link to the forecast of a strong El Nio? Thx




POAMA shows a little different
25 million tons of tsunami debris floating toward US shores - Fox News 2-15-12



Now imagine a Tsunami offshore of the West Coast of North America, just as this material is moving in close. Their debris and ours would co-mingle inland, a horrific thought, but remotely possible.
What a bust for Houston today.. We were expecting 2+ inches of rain and didn't get barely a 1/4 inch!
Quoting Skyepony:


We do know what station is being used for verification.. It is which ever station you select..you can select the airport or the one in your neighbor's backyard. The RMSE is located on the forecast page for which ever station you selected & are viewing..it compares the Bestforecast to the NWS forecast given for that same location. That way you can choose the better.. If one has out-preformed the other the last 20 days..your right it might not out-preform it today..but chances are it will.


My point is, even if BF does out-peform NWS statistically, it may not be a meaningful improvement. The ability to simulate a PWS that collects bad data does not result in a more useable forecast. It just means you can predict what the bad data will say. I'd much rather verify forecasts against a quality-assured station that uses known methods...
Quoting rwdobson:
Skye, I looked and here's what WU is saying for forecast quality for my nearest station (KKSOVERL5):

The quality of the forecasted high temperature for this day is good. MaxT RMSE [2.10], Average RMSE [2.24]
The National Weather Service forecast quality is good. MaxT RMSE [1.58], Average RMSE [1.68]

So it looks like quality really varies from station to station even within a small area...in this case it looks like NWS is winning handily. But for some other station nearby, both are doing much worse than they are for this one.

To me, this shows a big problem with trying to tailor forecasts to a specific PWS.


I see it as a great tool..especially since it gives you the error for both Bestforecast & NWS.. Since you have several stations in a small area you can find the one that has been giving the best forecast..be it NWS or Bestforecast & give that one some weight when considering the different forecasts for the area.

It's a great weather tool.. but if all you want to see is NWS, click once & you will forever see NWS forecast. This has been available for months or more...I see now it really went unnoticed.
Quoting StormTracker2K:




Notice how approximately half of the models start heading back towards La Nina by the middle/end of this year.
Quoting rwdobson:


My point is, even if BF does out-peform NWS statistically, it may not be a meaningful improvement. The ability to simulate a PWS that collects bad data does not result in a more useable forecast. It just means you can predict what the bad data will say. I'd much rather verify forecasts against a quality-assured station that uses known methods...


One thing that could be done to look into this issue further would be for Dr. Masters and his team to create visual representations of the RMSE for both the NWS forecast and the WU BestForecast values. If we could see it on a map, we could more easily ascertain how the error changes over a region.

Might also be helpful to see the BestForecast values in a gridded forecast just like the gridded forecast database from NWS, then we can see if the values it is producing make physical sense (like warmer temps in large urban areas, cooler temps in valleys, etc).
Quoting Bergeron:




POAMA shows a little different



Thank you...
Quoting rwdobson:


My point is, even if BF does out-peform NWS statistically, it may not be a meaningful improvement. The ability to simulate a PWS that collects bad data does not result in a more useable forecast. It just means you can predict what the bad data will say. I'd much rather verify forecasts against a quality-assured station that uses known methods...


When you've shelled out for a quality-assured station, assembled & precariously mounted it on your roof, figured out the software..get it uploading 24/7 to Wunderground..it's awesome to get a personal forecast for it.

Since your not using your own PWS & you feel your neighbor's is shoddy data.. just pick the local airport or what ever you feel is quality assured..WU might best the NWS forecast or not..atleast they give you the stats to know which you should weight more..
And you thought it was just Texas?
Fears of British super-drought after record low rainfall in winter

--------

"When you use the word drought you become a hostage to fortune. Events can occur at the last minute to make you look silly," said Andrew Chapman, a senior environment planning officer with the agency. "But the position is becoming very serious. In simple terms, unless we get a downpour that lasts for several weeks in the very near future, we are in trouble. There could be severe water shortages in many parts of the country." Worst affected areas would include the Midlands, East Anglia and the south-east of England, say agency officials.

The impending crisis--which could have widespread consequences for farmers, food production, tourism, industry and domestic life--has been building for the past 18 months. Reservoirs were already low this time last year. Then came 2011, the driest year in England and Wales for 90 year.

In addition, we are now experiencing the driest winter on record, though this could change over the next few weeks, meteorologists have said. The crucial point is that boreholes and reservoirs are now at "notably low" or "exceptionally low" levels. At the RSPB reserve at Titchwell Marsh in Norfolk, springs have dried up and many of the birds, including populations of bearded tits, marsh harriers and reed warblers, are now struggling to find food. Fresh water plants and animals such as water voles are also suffering. "This is a very worrying situation to have at this time of year," said Grahame Madge, an RSPB official. "This is an incredibly important wildlife site that we cannot afford to have damaged. We are going to have to look very carefully at how we manage water supplies there in coming years."

In addition, rivers have dried up in several areas. These include tributaries of the Welland in Lincolnshire and the Chess in Buckinghamshire. Fish have become stranded in pools and had to be rescued by agency workers and moved to areas where water is flowing.

"We sometimes have to carry out such rescues in summer," said Ian Barker, the Environment Agency's head of water, land and biodiversity. "But we are having to do this in mid-winter, the one time of year when there is supposed to be plenty of water and rainfall. That is certainly not a healthy state."

The impending water crisis is particularly worrying for farmers. At this time of year, many build storage lagoons to hold water that they can use later in the year to irrigate crops. But to be allowed to dam up water that would otherwise flow into rivers, farmers have to be given permits by the Environment Agency.


Uh-oh

Full article...
Quoting Skyepony:


When you've shelled out for a quality-assured station, assembled & precariously mounted it on your roof, figured out the software..get it uploading 24/7 to Wunderground..it's awesome to get a personal forecast for it.

Since your not using your own PWS & you feel your neighbor's is shoddy data.. just pick the local airport or what ever you feel is quality assured..WU might best the NWS forecast or not..atleast they give you the stats to know which you should weight more..


You don't seem to understand what I mean by "quality assured."

You don't just "shell out for" a quality assured station. Quality assurance involves both proper installation and ongoing things like checks, calibration, maintenance, etc.

Few, if any, PWS will be quality assured. For one thing, most people cannot erect a 10-m tower to measure winds in their backyards, and even if they could, it would probably not be free from obstructions as needed. And even if it is somehow properly installed, will the operator perform the needed ongoing QA? Probably not. Few do.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, you would've been screwed. :P


I know, thankfully we were prepared just in case, but even that gave me stitches and a scar LOL
I sooooo hope the GFS is right with this weekend storm... Both the 12 and 18z runs show me getting 1+feet of snow... That would be more than I've had all year! I don't think I could make it through a winter without one big nor'easter to track... The 12 and 18z runs of the GFS were incredibly consistent, which gives me hope :D
Honestly BestForecast has performed better for me than almost anything else ever since I discovered it about a year ago. However its precipitation chances seem to be a bit too bias to the GFS model.


Well if you are from Philly northward, good news for you is that you get more than a foot of snow on the 18Z GFS. Bad news if you love snow and are south of there, DC gets all rain on this run...
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Well if you are from Philly northward, good news for you is that you get more than a foot of snow on the 18Z GFS. Bad news if you love snow and are south of there, DC gets all rain on this run...

The cold air appears to be chasing the precipitation here...like usual.
Quoting rwdobson:


You don't seem to understand what I mean by "quality assured."

You don't just "shell out for" a quality assured station. Quality assurance involves both proper installation and ongoing things like checks, calibration, maintenance, etc.


Right. So if we have several personal weather stations with their own biases, the BestForecast is just working to match those biases. Then it produces a forecast that best "matches" your area. Unfortunatly this implies that there was a problem with the forecast that needed correcting, instead of a problem with the weather station.

There is probably more uncertainty with weather forecasts than weather stations, but without any type of consistent QC or station type used in BestForecast, the uncertainty bars for measurements is going to start getting pretty big too - maybe rivaling the uncertainty of the forecasts.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I sooooo hope the GFS is right with this weekend storm... Both the 12 and 18z runs show me getting 1+feet of snow... That would be more than I've had all year! I don't think I could make it through a winter without one big nor'easter to track... The 12 and 18z runs of the GFS were incredibly consistent, which gives me hope :D


18Z GFS was stronger and more to the west....
Quoting WxGeekVA:


18Z GFS was stronger and more to the west....

The NE still gets hammered regardless.
we wait as always for the next set of model runs see if depiction remains
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Well if you are from Philly northward, good news for you is that you get more than a foot of snow on the 18Z GFS. Bad news if you love snow and are south of there, DC gets all rain on this run...


One thing to remember on that map is that precip you see is accumulated amount through the past 6 hours. The 0 line is the actual temp for that exact hour of the run. Best thing to look at is the 70% RH line for that hour of the run and use the 540 thickness or 0 at 850 line.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The NE still gets hammered regardless.


But I get all rain now....

a lot of moisture being pumped into the gulf from the East Pacific..
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Well if you are from Philly northward, good news for you is that you get more than a foot of snow on the 18Z GFS. Bad news if you love snow and are south of there, DC gets all rain on this run...
I hope you get the snow Geek...You are Jonesing hard for something wet and cold besides beer...I will summon the Snow God, and there will be snow..
Quoting:-92. Neapolitan.
With the title of "You thought is was just Texas?"

Sorry I cant quote direct as only half the page is present from 50/101.
Anyway, I don't think its anything like as bad here in England as all of you on the ground in Texas are having but it is interesting to note that the map that Nea put up shows most of the flat and easily farmed land in England where a lot of food is grown, I would estimate that upwards of 20 million people live in the high risk areas. Plus of course being a sporting bunch, they are hosting the Olympics in London as well this year.
I am in the north of England at the moment and the ground is soaking wet here,water everywhere. One of the main risks will not be continuing drought but bush/moor/forest fires, as everywhere there are large areas of dead, dry vegetable matter.
It needs to rain heavily in the next 6 weeks to avoid big problems.
5.2 quake in the Aleutian Islands...
Quoting WxGeekVA:


But I get all rain now....



i get rain no matter what xD
Quoting WxGeekVA:


18Z GFS was stronger and more to the west....

That kinda cancels itself out... Farther west brings the rain/snow line farther inland (bad for me), stronger means the storm generates more of its own cold, pushing the rain/snow line back (good for me)
Quoting hydrus:
I hope you get the snow Geek...You are Jonesing hard for something wet and cold besides beer...I will summon the Snow God, and there will be snow..

Wow! Looks like I'll see a lot of some on Sunday and Monday based on that model.

Local weather forecasts and the new BestForecast don't show anything, unfortunately.
Quoting rwdobson:


You don't seem to understand what I mean by "quality assured."

You don't just "shell out for" a quality assured station. Quality assurance involves both proper installation and ongoing things like checks, calibration, maintenance, etc.

Few, if any, PWS will be quality assured. For one thing, most people cannot erect a 10-m tower to measure winds in their backyards, and even if they could, it would probably not be free from obstructions as needed. And even if it is somehow properly installed, will the operator perform the needed ongoing QA? Probably not. Few do.


Bestforecast did indeed used to suck on my PWS cause it was 10' off the ground & data was only uploaded when my PC was on. Because of Bestcast & an invest.. I was motivated to get it uploading 24/7 & mounted 30' up in the air, free of obstacles..easier than you described (check with radio shack & other neighbors with antenna's & such). If anything it has been a motivation to keep up with it.

Bestforecast many times now bests the NWS forecast as a few miles more inland from the ocean here makes a huge difference. NWS forecast for my town is made for a spot that gets much more wind from the sea some days then here. Same thing for my place in the mountains. Bestforecast has bested NWS for all the PWSs I watch in that area.

Personal Weather Stations make Wunderground very unique in the weather community even if every station isn't 100% correct..suspect data tends to stands out. This really just makes it all just that more useful, especially in microclimates.

If you don't trust PWSs choose your closest airport or NWS...if you don't trust that data why bother?
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Well if you are from Philly northward, good news for you is that you get more than a foot of snow on the 18Z GFS. Bad news if you love snow and are south of there, DC gets all rain on this run...
eh, I'm not a fan of 18z runs. Or 6z runs.

0z and 12z is the only way to go.

Especially when you are looking out more than a few days out in time.
The NAO is too positive for what the last few runs have been saying.... But the GFS has also been overdoing troughs this year so...
Quoting WxGeekVA:
The NAO is too positive for what the last few runs have been saying.... But the GFS has also been overdoing troughs this year so...

There's the key... I struggle to buy this storm because:
a) The nao won't allow it and
b) The GFS has shown inconsistency with this storm and has had a tendency to overdo troughs and storms this year
Gotta believe the euro solution at this point, unfortunately
No snow for the D.C area this week.My prayers have been answered.things have been going my way today.
The heaviest snow as usual would be right next to the rain, so we can't be sure of snow amounts until we know within 50 or so miles where the low will track.

And which model has been better this year, the GFS, NAM ,or ECMWF, because the ECMWF is buying this snowstorm at all anymore
119. Rev
Hmmm. As of right now, the new "BestForecast" system is predicting a 50% chance of thunderstorms next Saturday with a high temp of 23F and a low temp of 9F in Laramie, Wyoming. This confuses me.
Quoting Rev:
Hmmm. As of right now, the new "BestForecast" system is predicting a 50% chance of thunderstorms next Saturday with a high temp of 23F and a low temp of 9F in Laramie, Wyoming. This confuses me.
That's hilarious.LOL.
Hopefully this will be worth my time:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0120
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0546 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 152346Z - 160045Z

PARTS OF SRN LA /IN VICINITY AND E OF LCH/ ARE BEING MONITORED INTO
THE EVENING FOR A POTENTIAL WATCH.

STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD TEND TO REMAIN N OF THE NWRN
GULF COAST REGION AS A PROGRESSIVE KS/OK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS
TOWARD THE TN/OH VALLEYS...PER TRENDS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
HOWEVER...12Z ECMWF/18Z GFS SUGGEST SOME DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS SRN LA THIS EVENING WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION/TSTM POTENTIAL ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH
EXTENDED FROM JUST N OF LCH ESEWD THROUGH FAR SRN LA AND AHEAD OF
THE PROGRESSIVE MCS. IT IS ACROSS THIS PART OF LA WHERE CONCERN
REMAINS FOR PARCELS TO BECOME SURFACE BASED...OR AT LEAST REMAIN
NEAR SURFACE BASED...POSING A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT /ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADO THREAT/.

TRENDS IN LATE AFTERNOON OBJECTIVE ANALYSES ACROSS SRN LA SHOWED
WEAKENING OF SURFACE BASED INHIBITION FROM W-E...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SWRN-S CENTRAL LA...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF A BOOST IN THETAE ALONG
AND S OF THE WARM FRONT. GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 50 KT
AND AN INCREASE IN THE LLJ TO 40-50 KT OVER SRN LA PER WSR-88D
VWPS...SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO ROTATE WITH
SUBSEQUENT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A TORNADO. ONGOING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EVENING AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
FACTORS SUGGEST SRN LA WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT INTO THE EVENING.

..PETERS.. 02/15/2012
Geek what did you do? I am in classes all day and I come back to see you let the GFS shift it farther west!
off topic but,
This is the forecast weather discussion for the NYC area from the NWS:

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FAMILIAR PATTERN THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME...WITH WESTERLY MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PREVAILING KEEPING COLD AIR TO THE NORTH. QUESTIONS
ARISE ON PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SRN BRANCHES THIS WEEKEND.
THE DEGREE OF PHASING WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN ACTUAL
FORECAST FOR OUR AREA...PARTICULARLY THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY...INITIAL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE MAIN TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM HUDSON
BAY. AS THIS HAPPENS FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
WEEKEND...SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH/CLOSED LOW EJECTS TO THE EAST AND
WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF STATES. GFS DOES PHASE THE
SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN BRANCHES...WITH THE RESULT A POTENT COASTAL
STORM PASSING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK. THE OPERATIONAL RUN DOES HAVE
SOME SUPPORT FROM OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
.

PROJECTING NAM OUT BEYOND 84 HOURS...ONE WOULD NOT EXPECT PHASING TO
OCCUR AS NORTHERN TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUICKLY BY 00Z
SUNDAY...AND SRN TROUGH/SFC LOW LAGS WAY BACK TO THE SOUTH.

AS FOR ECMWF...LACK OF PHASING ALSO RESULTS IN A TRACK TOO FAR SOUTH
TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE AREA...AT LEAST REGARDING
PRECIPITATION.

WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...AND TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. IF GFS IS CLOSE TO
BEING CORRECT...WINTRY MIX TO RAIN NEAR THE COAST
...WITH LONGER
PERIOD OF WINTRY WEATHER INTERIOR ZONES. LACK OF COLD AIR/HIGH
PRESSURE PLACEMENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM LEADS ME TO BELIEVE MORE
LIQUID THAN FROZEN FOR THE CWA...BUT STAY TUNED.

if people here say over a foot for NYC, so why rain for the coast????????
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Well if you are from Philly northward, good news for you is that you get more than a foot of snow on the 18Z GFS. Bad news if you love snow and are south of there, DC gets all rain on this run...
The GFS still has this system getting fairly strong...
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
off topic but,
This is the forecast weather discussion for the NYC area from the NWS:

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FAMILIAR PATTERN THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME...WITH WESTERLY MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PREVAILING KEEPING COLD AIR TO THE NORTH. QUESTIONS
ARISE ON PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SRN BRANCHES THIS WEEKEND.
THE DEGREE OF PHASING WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN ACTUAL
FORECAST FOR OUR AREA...PARTICULARLY THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY...INITIAL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE MAIN TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM HUDSON
BAY. AS THIS HAPPENS FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
WEEKEND...SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH/CLOSED LOW EJECTS TO THE EAST AND
WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF STATES. GFS DOES PHASE THE
SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN BRANCHES...WITH THE RESULT A POTENT COASTAL
STORM PASSING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK. THE OPERATIONAL RUN DOES HAVE
SOME SUPPORT FROM OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
.

PROJECTING NAM OUT BEYOND 84 HOURS...ONE WOULD NOT EXPECT PHASING TO
OCCUR AS NORTHERN TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUICKLY BY 00Z
SUNDAY...AND SRN TROUGH/SFC LOW LAGS WAY BACK TO THE SOUTH.

AS FOR ECMWF...LACK OF PHASING ALSO RESULTS IN A TRACK TOO FAR SOUTH
TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE AREA...AT LEAST REGARDING
PRECIPITATION.

WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...AND TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. IF GFS IS CLOSE TO
BEING CORRECT...WINTRY MIX TO RAIN NEAR THE COAST
...WITH LONGER
PERIOD OF WINTRY WEATHER INTERIOR ZONES. LACK OF COLD AIR/HIGH
PRESSURE PLACEMENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM LEADS ME TO BELIEVE MORE
LIQUID THAN FROZEN FOR THE CWA...BUT STAY TUNED.

if people here say over a foot for NYC, so why rain for the coast????????


Because there is an expected difference between forecasts from the NWS and those from weather enthusiasts?
Maybe this isn't a coincidence anymore...I knew people get back on when they think the "ghost is clear" when they think I'm not around anymore...I knew I wasn't crazy!!.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Because there is an expected difference between forecasts from the NWS and those from weather enthusiasts?


I'm always right, I don't know what you are talking about.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Because there is an expected difference between forecasts from the NWS and those from weather enthusiasts?


awok, so who is talking here.... rain or snow. I want snow though.
I know it's early to tell but... any opinions or assumptions???
129. MahFL
Well the Bestforcast was way off for me today temperpature wise, it forecast 77 and we got to 69, so not a good start really......back to the drawing board ?
I hope this hurricane season isn't whack.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Geek what did you do? I am in classes all day and I come back to see you let the GFS shift it farther west!


I didn't do anything.... I wanted it to shift east too!!!
Quoting washingtonian115:
I hope this hurricane season isn't whack.
This is the cursed hurricane hurricane list.
Quoting washingtonian115:
This is the cursed hurricane hurricane list.
I know this is the cursed hurricane list but I want to see Issac strive.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I hope this hurricane season isn't whack.


yeah hopefully not... like another boring Katia
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


yeah hopefully not... like another boring Katia


Lee was worse. Trust me.
Quoting Ameister12:

Wow! Looks like I'll see a lot of some on Sunday and Monday based on that model.

Local weather forecasts and the new BestForecast don't show anything, unfortunately.
Should be interesting anyway.
Winter: Y U NO SNOW?
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


yeah hopefully not... like another boring Katia
Well it's nice seeing a major hurricane out their minding their own buisness.Well shipping interest will be affected...
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I didn't do anything.... I wanted it to shift east too!!!


Well there is always the 0z GFS, hopefully its just offshore pounding us with snow!
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Snow doesn't like us this winter.Gotta go to Europe for a winter wonderland.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Well there is always the 0z GFS, hopefully its just offshore pounding us with snow!
Ha...pounding us with snow(if you get the joke it'll make since).Now I'm about to get off.But I bet people will return...
Quoting WxGeekVA:
The NAO is too positive for what the last few runs have been saying.... But the GFS has also been overdoing troughs this year so...


excuse me?


Its slightly negative for now:)

now if your saying its too positive for when the system is forecast, then that would make sense lol :D
My BestForecast in N GA is only 1-2 degrees different than the NWS Forecast
Quoting SPLbeater:


excuse me?


Its slightly negative for now:)

now if your saying its too positive for when the system is forecast, then that would make sense lol :D


Yeah, that's what I meant. It won't be negative enough for the kind of storm the operational GFS has...
Cool people + this radar image....

Quote from Guardian article:
Heartland operates on a range of issues besides the environment. But discrediting the science of climate change remains a key mission. The group spends $300,000 on salaries for a team of experts working to undermine the findings of the UN climate body, the IPCC.

It plans to expand that this year by paying a former US department of energy employee to write an alternative curriculum for schoolchildren that will cast doubt on global warming. The fundraising plan notes the anonymous donor has set aside $100,000 for the project.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/feb/15 /leak-exposes-heartland-institute-climate?INTCMP=S RCH
Quoting washingtonian115:
.Now I'm about to get off.But I bet people will return...


I see she is gone so it safe..............

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
there will be several large events coming up to take us into spring


Keeper, this comment makes me feel so much better when I know you are an Optimist.
Quoting 1911maker:


I see she is gone so it safe..............



Keeper, this comment makes me feel so much better when I know you are an Optimist.


Optimism might brighten the mood, but it does not shape reality.

Signed,

The Pessimist

ETA: Hmm. But neither does pessimism. I guess that leaves us with realism.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Optimism might brighten the mood, but it does not shape reality.

Signed,

The Pessimist

ETA: Hmm. But neither does pessimism. I guess that leaves us with realism.




Quoting WxGeekVA:






;)
READERS IN COUNCIL Thursday, Feb. 16, 2012
Health threat from cesium-137

By STEVEN STARRSENIOR SCIENTIST, PHYSICIANS FOR SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY
University of Missouri

Regarding the Feb. 14 article reprinted from Sentaku magazine, "Put children before politics": Thank you for endorsing this idea. I would like to comment on one aspect of the article regarding cesium-137, which makes up 40 percent of the long-lived radionuclides created by nuclear power plants.

Because cesium-137 has a 30-year half-life, the land seriously contaminated by the Fukushima disaster will remain dangerously radioactive for up to 300 years. There is a great deal of experience with cesium-137 in the seriously contaminated regions of Belarus and Ukraine. Once radioactive cesium makes its way into the soils, it will bioconcentrate and biomagnify in foodstuffs, particularly mushrooms, berries and wild game.

Food grown in these regions is contaminated with cesium-137, and sadly most of the children living there who eat this food have become unhealthy. The Belrad Institute, after nine years of research and hundreds of autopsies, found that cesium-137 concentrates in the vital organs, particularly the heart and endocrine system. Professor Yuri Bandazhevsky discovered that children contaminated with cesium-137 that produced 50 atomic disintegrations per second (becquerels) per kilogram of body weight caused irreversible heart damage in a child.

Source: Japan Times



Jiji: Experts warned today there’s high possibility of strong inland quake hitting Fukushima plant — Water 150km deep may seep into fault triggering massive tremor

Title: Inland Quake May Hit Fukushima Nuclear Plant: Study Warns Source: Jiji Press Date: 2012/02/15-23:26

There is a high possibility of a strong inland earthquake hitting the crippled nuclear power plant in Fukushima Prefecture, experts warned Wednesday. [...]

Water was found some 150 kilometers under the surfaces of the two faults, and the water, ascended from the Pacific slab because of underground pressure, is believed to have seeped into the Idosawa fault, triggering the massive Iwaki shake [...]

A similar event may happen in the Futaba fault, the researchers think.

Cross reference source:
Wall Street Journal, Study Predicts Increased Earthquake Activity Near Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Plant; Suggests Security Measures:


Link
Quoting rwdobson:
Skye, I looked and here's what WU is saying for forecast quality for my nearest station (KKSOVERL5):

The quality of the forecasted high temperature for this day is good. MaxT RMSE [2.10], Average RMSE [2.24]
The National Weather Service forecast quality is good. MaxT RMSE [1.58], Average RMSE [1.68]

So it looks like quality really varies from station to station even within a small area...in this case it looks like NWS is winning handily. But for some other station nearby, both are doing much worse than they are for this one.

To me, this shows a big problem with trying to tailor forecasts to a specific PWS.


They may not be filtering out outliers, or some are somehow slipping through which can really skew a forecast.

It's a new feature so there may still be some bugs.
The effect of Offshore winds in Rincon
http://republicofaustin.com/3-heartbreaking-photos- of-desert-like-lake-travis-during-the-texas-drough t/

Drove by Lake Travis this past weekend it still looks like this because they have received little to No rain since Sept. 2010 and just to the East around 30 miles water is standing, what a difference 30 to 50 miles can make.
Anybody played NWS Hotseat lately?
Quoting sunlinepr:
The effect of Offshore winds in Rincon

Looking Good!
Quoting SPLbeater:
Anybody played NWS Hotseat lately?

They need to add more scenarios.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They need to add more scenarios.


yeah. but what they got is fun :D i like the severe weather across georgia scenario
Why does the greatest area of ascent always have to remain to my north? The only time I get any real severe weather is during a tropical storm or hurricane.
Quoting rwdobson:


You don't seem to understand what I mean by "quality assured."

You don't just "shell out for" a quality assured station. Quality assurance involves both proper installation and ongoing things like checks, calibration, maintenance, etc.

Few, if any, PWS will be quality assured. For one thing, most people cannot erect a 10-m tower to measure winds in their backyards, and even if they could, it would probably not be free from obstructions as needed. And even if it is somehow properly installed, will the operator perform the needed ongoing QA? Probably not. Few do.


Then you can do a bias analysis and correct for errors. A thousand "ok" data sources across a region will yield more accurate results than 1 "good" data source if handled correctly. If you know to expect a certain amount of error from the data coming in, and adjust accordingly you can improve over a single station, even if it that single station is in perfect working order.

There's no such things as perfect data. There are always missing, corrupt, and/or wacked out data even from the best data sources. Before forecasters even touch the data, it is processed, error-corrected, and packaged into a form that's actually usable either via analysis tools or models.

Typically forecasters and operational model runs use what's known as level 3 data. This data is adjusted, error, corrected, and interpolated onto a regular grid (otherwise models like GFS would explode). In most cases, you could pop the data into something like Panoply or GrADS and it wouldn't look like distorted garbage. Raw data is considered level 1, and if you don't know where it came from or what you're doing then it's little more than bit mush. Any model I'm aware of would puke ASCII and die if you tried to feed it level 1 data.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Why does the greatest area of ascent always have to remain to my north? The only time I get any real severe weather is during a tropical storm or hurricane.

Nobody told you to stay in boring Louisiana.
Heavy snow causes damage to Italy’s historical landmarks
Posted on February 15, 2012

February 15, 2012 – ROME – Heavy snow in recent weeks has already wreaked havoc across Europe — now it is damaging some of the continent’s most recognized historic monuments. The Colosseum in Rome has been forced to shut after small pieces of its walls crumbled away as a result of freezing temperatures. And buildings in the historic walled town of Urbino — a UNESCO World Heritage Site — are reported to be at risk of collapse under the weight of snow, following unprecedented blizzards in the area. In the Italian capital, thousands of tourists have been disappointed to discover the Colosseum, one of the city’s most popular attractions, is closed to visitors, while checks are carried out to determine the extent of the damage and to help prevent further movement. Cristiano Brughitta, spokesman for Italy’s Ministry for Cultural Heritage and Activities, said the damage was caused by ice forming on the walls of the monument. David Pickles, senior architect at English Heritage, told CNN such damage was an extreme version of the natural wear and tear buildings face during everyday weather. “There’s a whole freeze/thaw cycle of damage to buildings where moisture gets into the stonework, into the pores of the stone, it then freezes and expands very significantly, it then breaks up the stone and then when it thaws, bits of stone will start falling off. “That’s happening all the time, of course, that’s one of the major decay mechanisms in historic buildings anyway, because they’re largely water permeable… You can’t treat stone to stop it happening.” -CNN
An unusually powerful explosions in Siberia, Russia at February 2012 -are the repetition of the Tunguska explosion in 1908?
Wednesday, 15 February 2012 15:37

As reported the Geophysical Service of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences- two unusually powerful explosions occurred in the last few days in the south of Western Siberia, a few dozen kilometers of the town of Belovo, Kemerovo Region, Russia. The first explosion took place February 9, 2012 at 20:30 pm, the explosion was such a huge force, that the inhabitants of cities Belovo Prokopevsk, Novokuznetsk, Kemerovo felt such powerful tremors of the earth, which in many apartments the furniture were falling, many residents were in the panic, ran into the street, thinking that this is an earthquake, but according to the Geophysical Service of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, that have been published already after a few minutes after these shocks- Russian Academy of Sciences excluded the possibility of an earthquake, as an explosion occurred on the surface of the earth, the force was M3.6 on the Richter scale. After this - at February 12, 2012 was another explosion, a little weaker, than the previous explosion, and the Geophysical Service of the Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences also noted, that it was an explosion but was not an earthquake and this explosion occurred exactly at the same place (the copy of the report message of Geophysical Service of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences can be viewed at the top of this article). All the local press of the Kemerovo region for several days discussed these strange explosions, for first- these explosions can not be explained by the extraction of minerals, since the extraction of minerals in Russia at night time is strictly prohibited, and secondly, the explosions were so much force, that they were equivalent to an explosion of several thousand tons of explosives, and so much explosives do not have the local companies, that extract minerals in this region. Therefore, put forward suggestions, that it were the explosions like of the Tunguska explosion of 1908 or it were the testing of new models of tectonic weapons. Two days ago the specialists of Russian Academy of Sciences from Moscow arrived in Kemerovo, now in the area of explosions are prohibited the access of local residents.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Nobody told you to stay in boring Louisiana.


I stay because of the hurricanes.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I stay because of the hurricanes.

What about Texas? Alabama? Mississippi? Florida? South Carolina? North Carolina?

Silly Kori, more than one state gets hit by hurricanes.
Also, we can't forget my recent enslavement to Walmart.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What about Texas? Alabama? Mississippi? Florida? South Carolina? North Carolina?

Silly Kori, more than one state gets hit by hurricanes.


Judging by admittedly incomplete research I've done on Louisiana hurricane history, it appears that the state is among the top five in the US to witness annual hurricane strikes.

Though I suppose Florida is always an option.

ETA: Or Guam. That island is probably built to withstand typhoons anyway, so what do I have to lose?
Quoting sunlinepr:
Heavy snow causes damage to Italy’s historical landmarks
Posted on February 15, 2012

February 15, 2012 – ROME – Heavy snow in recent weeks has already wreaked havoc across Europe — now it is damaging some of the continent’s most recognized historic monuments. The Colosseum in Rome has been forced to shut after small pieces of its walls crumbled away as a result of freezing temperatures. And buildings in the historic walled town of Urbino — a UNESCO World Heritage Site — are reported to be at risk of collapse under the weight of snow, following unprecedented blizzards in the area. In the Italian capital, thousands of tourists have been disappointed to discover the Colosseum, one of the city’s most popular attractions, is closed to visitors, while checks are carried out to determine the extent of the damage and to help prevent further movement. Cristiano Brughitta, spokesman for Italy’s Ministry for Cultural Heritage and Activities, said the damage was caused by ice forming on the walls of the monument. David Pickles, senior architect at English Heritage, told CNN such damage was an extreme version of the natural wear and tear buildings face during everyday weather. “There’s a whole freeze/thaw cycle of damage to buildings where moisture gets into the stonework, into the pores of the stone, it then freezes and expands very significantly, it then breaks up the stone and then when it thaws, bits of stone will start falling off. “That’s happening all the time, of course, that’s one of the major decay mechanisms in historic buildings anyway, because they’re largely water permeable… You can’t treat stone to stop it happening.” -CNN


It's amazing how cold they are and how warm we are.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Judging by admittedly incomplete research I've done on Louisiana hurricane history, it appears that the state is among the top five in the US to witness annual hurricane strikes.

Though I suppose Florida is always an option.

ETA: Or Guam. That island is probably built to withstand typhoons anyway, so what do I have to lose?

Uhm...Then you wouldn't get Severe Weather.

I'd say Alabama is your best bet. :)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Uhm...Then you wouldn't get Severe Weather.

I'd say Alabama is your best bet. :)


Hurricanes produce severe weather.
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
123 PM EST WED FEB 15 2012

VALID FEB 15/1200 UTC THRU FEB 19/0000 UTC



THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE WORSE INITIALIZATION OF THE TROUGH'S
PLACEMENT OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NUNAVUT THIS MORNING COMPARED
TO THE NAM/ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
ALLOWING AN UPSTREAM PERTURBATION CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC TO
CUT THROUGH THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ON
THURSDAY...WHICH THEN PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SLOWS
THE ENTIRE GFS SOLUTION. THE COMBINATION OF WORSE INITIALIZATION
AND QUESTIONABLE AND EVEN SUSPICIOUS PHASING OF THE SEPARATE
STREAMS IS SUFFICIENT TO DISCARD THE GFS PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE
PERIOD.


Link
Quoting sunlinepr:
Jiji: Experts warned today there’s high possibility of strong inland quake hitting Fukushima plant — Water 150km deep may seep into fault triggering massive tremor


That's all well and good.... except that 150km deep is about 75km inside the friggin mantle. Kinda doubt water can exist there. Not to mention... pretty sure all plate tectonics exist solely on the earths crust... you know, the part that floats on top of the mantle? Just sayin.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
123 PM EST WED FEB 15 2012

VALID FEB 15/1200 UTC THRU FEB 19/0000 UTC



THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE WORSE INITIALIZATION OF THE TROUGH'S
PLACEMENT OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NUNAVUT THIS MORNING COMPARED
TO THE NAM/ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
ALLOWING AN UPSTREAM PERTURBATION CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC TO
CUT THROUGH THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ON
THURSDAY...WHICH THEN PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SLOWS
THE ENTIRE GFS SOLUTION. THE COMBINATION OF WORSE INITIALIZATION
AND QUESTIONABLE AND EVEN SUSPICIOUS PHASING OF THE SEPARATE
STREAMS IS SUFFICIENT TO DISCARD THE GFS PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE
PERIOD.


Link


Is that just for the 12z?
Quoting KoritheMan:


Optimism might brighten the mood, but it does not shape reality.

Signed,

The Pessimist

ETA: Hmm. But neither does pessimism. I guess that leaves us with realism.


I should have put a smiley after that.

The optimist considers a realist a pessimist

A pessimist considers a realist a optimist

The still warrants a smiley, but it also has a lot of truth in it.

Quoting WxGeekVA: good graphic, you pessimist. :)
Quoting KoritheMan:


Hurricanes produce severe weather.

I'm talking about non-tropical severe weather, as were you. Not sure why you changed to hurricane-related severe weather. :P
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm talking about non-tropical severe weather, as were you. Not sure why you changed to hurricane-related severe weather. :P


I should have just generalized from the start and said I like extreme weather.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Is that just for the 12z?


It is but the 18Z discussion won't load right. It says similar things though...
0z NAM 75hrs:


NAM 84hrs: It wants a snowstorm for mid-atl XD

Quoting KoritheMan:


I should have just generalized from the start and said I like extreme weather.


Ever consider the Diplomatic Corps, Kori?
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
0z NAM 75hrs:




I'll see your hour 75 and raise you hour 81 and a Southern VA blizzard...

Quoting WxGeekVA:


I'll see your hour 75 and raise you hour 81 and a Southern VA blizzard...



Already have 84 up ;)


DC snowstorm 0Z NAM FINALLY!!!!!!!!!
Hello boys and girls!

Quoting WxGeekVA:


I'll see your hour 75 and raise you hour 81 and a Southern VA blizzard...

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
0z NAM 75hrs:



Come on moisture, come on moisture, stay in Southeastern North Carolina and let the blue line come through. :(

It doesn't even have to accumulate that much, I just want to see it fall!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Come on moisture, come on moisture, stay in Southeastern North Carolina and let the blue line come through. :(

It doesn't even have to accumulate that much, I just want to see it fall!


It looks like the NAM wants it to after 84 hour mark, we will have to wait till the 12z tomorrow though. It wants too.
Quoting Grothar:


Ever consider the Diplomatic Corps, Kori?


Yes.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yes.

No.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No.


Maybe.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Maybe.


Possibly.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Possibly.

Probably Not.
See, now those answers keep you out of trouble.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Probably Not.


Maybe someday.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Maybe someday.


Tomorrow.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Tomorrow.


The Day After Tomorrow...
Quoting Grothar:
See, now those answers keep you out of trouble.


What if I like trouble?

*whistles innocently*
Quoting WxGeekVA:


The Day After Tomorrow...


The day after the day after tomorrow.
Quoting KoritheMan:


The day after the day after tomorrow.


so yesterday?
..
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
NAM 84hrs: It wants a snowstorm for mid-atl XD



but i dont want snow, i want exciting weather
Quoting sunlinepr:
An unusually powerful explosions in Siberia, Russia at February 2012 -are the repetition of the Tunguska explosion in 1908?
Wednesday, 15 February 2012 15:37

As reported the Geophysical Service of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences- two unusually powerful explosions occurred in the last few days in the south of Western Siberia, a few dozen kilometers of the town of Belovo, Kemerovo Region, Russia. The first explosion took place February 9, 2012 at 20:30 pm, the explosion was such a huge force, that the inhabitants of cities Belovo Prokopevsk, Novokuznetsk, Kemerovo felt such powerful tremors of the earth, which in many apartments the furniture were falling, many residents were in the panic, ran into the street, thinking that this is an earthquake, but according to the Geophysical Service of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, that have been published already after a few minutes after these shocks- Russian Academy of Sciences excluded the possibility of an earthquake, as an explosion occurred on the surface of the earth, the force was M3.6 on the Richter scale. After this - at February 12, 2012 was another explosion, a little weaker, than the previous explosion, and the Geophysical Service of the Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences also noted, that it was an explosion but was not an earthquake and this explosion occurred exactly at the same place (the copy of the report message of Geophysical Service of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences can be viewed at the top of this article). All the local press of the Kemerovo region for several days discussed these strange explosions, for first- these explosions can not be explained by the extraction of minerals, since the extraction of minerals in Russia at night time is strictly prohibited, and secondly, the explosions were so much force, that they were equivalent to an explosion of several thousand tons of explosives, and so much explosives do not have the local companies, that extract minerals in this region. Therefore, put forward suggestions, that it were the explosions like of the Tunguska explosion of 1908 or it were the testing of new models of tectonic weapons. Two days ago the specialists of Russian Academy of Sciences from Moscow arrived in Kemerovo, now in the area of explosions are prohibited the access of local residents.



If it was even within several orders of magnitude of that size, most of the biggest governments on earth have spy satellites, weather satellites, and mapping satellites, which would have detected it.

Even Google has mapping satellites powerful enough to have detected the destruction of a 30m to 100m impact or air bust scale explosion.

Maybe 10m to 20m impact meteor?

I still think the U.S. government could spot that with it's spy satellites, since they can see trucks and cars easily in Iraq.


It could be a geological event, such as a Methane bomb.

Is there any more information on this?
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


so yesterday?

A week after five days after a week before Tuesday.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

A week after five days after a week before Tuesday.


Let me end this: Whenever Chuck Norris allows it.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

A week after five days after a week before Tuesday.


no, four days before 2 weeks after a day
I just searched for these alleged explosions with Google, and the only thing I found was a power station that exploded on the 7th.

I couldn't find any mention of large explosions on the 9th or 12th.

In fact, there are some articles written on the 9th about the explosion that happened on the 7th.




The explosion seems to have happened on the 7th at a power station, and the plume that is seen on video is nowhere near kiloton scale.

The other explosions supposedly on the 9th and 12th I can't find any mention of still.
Found a cool story on the BBC.

Made in North Korea

As North Korea marks the birthday of its former leader, the late Kim Jong-il, there is still great uncertainty about the direction in which his son and heir, Kim Jong-un, intends to take the country - but if he aims to breathe new life into the economy, he will find foreign businesses keen to exploit any opportunities.

Might be only me who is interested in the private economy of NK. :P
Nope.

I found an exact copy of the article above, but as far as additional sources, I've found none regarding any kiloton scale explosion on the 9th or 12th in Russia.

No clue if that's just conspiracy nonsense or what.


Surely, the U.S. government or Google Earth would know about it by now if a meteor or methane explosion had happened.
OOGALEY BOOGALEY

i finally finished my 3rd math unit (3/10) and onto a new one...which, the subject is a bit easier...lol.
Quoting SPLbeater:


no, four days before 2 weeks after a day


Read the post above you lol
Hey WxGeekVA...here somethin for ya :D

you think u could write a blog on this possible snowstorm, the NAM mid-atlantic and the GFS Northeast systems? I would appreciate if you could do this n mail me when ur finished :D
What about some Krakatau watching?

night all
Quoting MahFL:
Well the Bestforcast was way off for me today temperpature wise, it forecast 77 and we got to 69, so not a good start really......back to the drawing board ?


Looking at the stats for the last 20 days at your location~ Orange Park, FL...WU barely out-preformed NWS for both high temp & average.

The quality of the forecasted high temperature for this day is good. MaxT RMSE [2.14], Average RMSE [1.97]
The National Weather Service forecast quality is good. MaxT RMSE [2.38], Average RMSE [2.00]


invest west of Peru... hmm

LOW PRESSURE CENTER 1012 MB AT 09S 87W.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM E QUADRANT OF CENTER
we may have a EL Nino froming

Quoting WxGeekVA:


Let me end this: Whenever Chuck Norris allows it.



Ok....Let's end this fighting....

HA!.I knew people would return when I was off...And it seems the models are flip flopping all over the place.... again...Please let it be rain...
here ya go hades

XX/INV/XXE


90 hrs 0z GFS.

Rejoice GEEK
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


90 hrs 0z GFS.

Rejoice GEEK
Ahhhhhhhh.
223. beell
Quoting sunlinepr:
An unusually powerful explosions in Siberia, Russia at February 2012 -are the repetition of the Tunguska explosion in 1908?
Wednesday, 15 February 2012 15:37

As reported the Geophysical Service of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences- two unusually powerful explosions occurred in the last few days in the south of Western Siberia, a few dozen kilometers of the town of Belovo, Kemerovo Region, Russia...


About 240 kilometers NW of Belovo

Seversk
Quoting washingtonian115:
Ahhhhhhhh.


please let this happen!!!!!!!! i want SNOWWWWWW!!
Quoting beell:
Quoting sunlinepr:
An unusually powerful explosions in Siberia, Russia at February 2012 -are the repetition of the Tunguska explosion in 1908?
Wednesday, 15 February 2012 15:37

As reported the Geophysical Service of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences- two unusually powerful explosions occurred in the last few days in the south of Western Siberia, a few dozen kilometers of the town of Belovo, Kemerovo Region, Russia...


About 240 kilometers NW of Belovo

Seversk


If it was above ground and as big as the article claims, then wouldn't our infrared weather satellites and visible satellites have detected both the fireball and the smoke?

If it was a meteor, someone had to see the fireball on entry. Anything big enough to make a kiloton class explosion would be lighting up the entire sky long before it made impact or air burst.

If it was a nuclear bomb under ground, why would the Russians test detonate a kiloton class bomb in 2012, after decades of supposedly downsizing nuclear arsenals? Particularly since they've had multi-megaton bombs for half a century.


?
Quoting RTSplayer:


If it was above ground and as big as the article claims, then wouldn't our infrared weather satellites and visible satellites have detected both the fireball and the smoke?

If it was a meteor, someone had to see the fireball on entry. Anything big enough to make a kiloton class explosion would be lighting up the entire sky long before it made impact or air burst.

If it was a nuclear bomb under ground, why would the Russians test detonate a kiloton class bomb in 2012, after decades of supposedly downsizing nuclear arsenals?


Very true... checking for cross references if it is not Science fiction...
Quoting sunlinepr:


Very true... checking for cross references if it is not Science fiction...


Unfortunately, I can't find anything on it.

On the 7th a power station near St. Petersburg had an unrelated explosion.

Besides the article you quoted, there is no mention of it. I was 7 or 8 pages deep on Google, not one peep from anyone, anywhere in government or media; not even a citizen or someone mentioning it on a forum or blog.
Quoting RTSplayer:


Unfortunately, I can't find anything on it.

On the 7th a power station near St. Petersburg had an unrelated explosion.

Besides the article you quoted, there is no mention of it. I was 7 or 8 pages deep on Google, not one peep from anyone, anywhere in government or media; not even a citizen or someone mentioning it on a forum or blog.


My bad.... seems like fiction....

It's interesting that the comment by Beell mentioning Seversk; the info in Wikipedia says;

Seversk - Secret city that was known as Tomsk-7

Seversk is the site of the Siberian Group of Chemical Enterprises, founded in 1954. It comprises several nuclear reactors and chemical plants for separation, enrichment, and reprocessing of uranium and plutonium. Following an agreement in March 2003 between Russia and the United States to shut down Russia's three remaining plutonium-producing reactors, two of the three plutonium producing reactors (the two that are sited at Seversk) have now been shut down.[5][6]

Nuclear warheads are produced and stored on the premises. One of the most serious nuclear accidents at SGCE occurred on 6 April 1993, when a tank containing a highly radioactive solution exploded.

Tomsk-7 explosion

There was a nuclear accident at the Tomsk-7 Reprocessing Complex on April 6, 1993, when a tank exploded while being cleaned with nitric acid. The explosion released a cloud of radioactive gas. TIME magazine has identified the Tomsk-7 explosion as one of the 10 world's "worst nuclear disasters".[8]
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
10:00 AM RET February 16 2012
================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Giovanna (988 hPa) located at 24.6S 41.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 4 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
50 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
80 NM radius from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 25.0S 41.1E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 25.4S 41.2E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 26.1S 42.0E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 26.6S 43.7E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================

Convection has organized on a 0.8ao log 10 curved band pattern during the last 6 hours.

Environmental conditions remain favorable for the deepening of the system within the next 3 days. Indeed, oceanic heat content is sufficient, low level feeding is good equatorward and is progressively improving poleward, upper level wind shear is weak below the upper ridge axis and two good outflow channels are expected to develop north and south of the system. On Sunday and after, system should begin to weaken under the strengthening of the upper level constraint.

System is forecast to move slowly generally southward for the next 48 to 60 hours under the influence of opposite steering flows in mid-troposphere (a ridge in its west and another one in its east). Beyond, although there are still some spread amongst the various guidance, system should track eastwards, under the probable influence in the mid-troposphere ridge that rebuilt north of the system.

Most of the members of the last ensemble forecast of the ECMWF (15FEB/1200 PM UTC run) are now in agreement with the recurvement eastward in the direction of the south of Madagascar and only a few members (less than 5 amongst the 51) show a westwards motion towards the Mozambique coasts.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 10-20112012
10:00 AM RET February 16 2012
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 10 (1000 hPa) located at 15.0S 81.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
80 NM radius from the center in southwestern quadrant and up to 130 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5/S0.0/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 15.1S 80.7E - 30 knots (Depresssion Tropicale)
24 HRS: 15.4S 79.9E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 16.7S 76.2E - 30 knots (Depresssion Tropicale)
72 HRS: 18.3S 71.0E - 30 knots (Depresssion Tropicale)

Additional Information
=======================

Intensity estimate at 0000 AM UTC has been corrected. Latest ascat pass clearly shows near gale to locally gale force winds in the southern semi-circle (but not in the northern semi-circle). As an upper level trough is located to the southwest of the system, a northwesterly constraint is evident with a low level circulation center located to the northwestern edge of the cloud mass.

No major changes in the forecast philosophy, but a lower than usual confidence for the intensity forecast with such a small system:

No feeding equatorward seems to be the main limitant factor for the development of this low. Monsoon inflow should improve slightly at 48 hours.

System is expected to be less or more under the north-easterly upper level wind shear, on the northern edge of the high level ridge, trough the forecast period.

System should continue to track west southwestward on the northern side of the subtropical high pressure that are building in its south.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #30
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
18:00 PM FST February 16 2012
===================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category One (995 hPa) located at 23.5S 176.6W has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 6 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS visible/enhanced infrared imagery with animation.

Gale Force Winds
==================
40 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
90 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
40 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
20 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Low level circulation center partially exposed with deep convection displaced to the east of low level circulation center. System lies just to the south of an upper ridge axis with good divergence aloft. Vertical shear is moderate to high. System is being steered to the southeast by deep layer mean northwesterly into an area of high shear. Sea surface temperature around 26C.

Dvorak analysis based on shear pattern with low level circulation center about 60 nautical miles from edge of deep convection, yields DT=2.0, PT=2.5 and MET=2.0, final Dvorak based on DT but due to final Dvorak constraint final Dvorak would be 2.5 as past 6 hour Final Dvorak was 3.0.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24 HRS

Most global models agree on a south southeast movement with gradual weakening.

Forecast and Intensity:
=======================

12 HRS: 24.6S 176.0W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS: 25.6S 175.2W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on TC JASMINE will be issued at 14:30 PM UTC..


Looks like a nice storm will form.


GFS says Good morning WXGeekVA, here's a monster snowstorm for you!
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


please let this happen!!!!!!!! i want SNOWWWWWW!!
the weatherguys are beginning to think this will be a huge waether maker for you folks up there, classic nor'easter in fact, be careful up there
Tropical Cyclone Jasmine.



Click Thumbnail for larger image.



Quoting WxGeekVA:


GFS says Good morning WXGeekVA, here's a monster snowstorm for you!


snow? why does the weather channel say a big rainstorm?
Tropical Cyclone Giovanna.



Click Thumbnail for larger image.
Tropical Depression 13 (Indian Ocean)



Click Thumbnail for larger image.
Uh-oh...30% on Day 3.



DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 AM CST THU FEB 16 2012

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SAT AND SAT NIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF STATES THRU THE S ATLANTIC COAST STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY CONCERNING SHORT
WAVE DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DISTINCT BRANCHES OF
STRONGER FLOW THAT PERSIST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. HOWEVER...A
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN MEXICAN
PLATEAU ON FRIDAY APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY SUPPRESS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING CURRENTLY
PRESENT...AND CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A STALLED
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 12Z
SATURDAY.

ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SUBTLE DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODELS
CONCERNING THE SPECIFICS OF THIS EVOLUTION...PARTICULARLY TO THE LEE
OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...MOST GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES
THAT A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL MIGRATE INLAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL GEORGIA BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY 850
MB JET IN EXCESS OF 50 KT...ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
CYCLONE...AS A STRONGLY DIFLUENT WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB JET
STREAK...SHIFTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...STRENGTHENS IN EXCESS OF
90 KTS.

...CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES INTO THE S ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
DESPITE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION EVIDENT IN THE MODEL DATA...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM...IT APPEARS THAT A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER PRESENT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ADVECT INLAND WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW. EVEN IF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO NOT
STEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY...AS COLDER MID-LEVEL AIR PROBABLY WILL REMAIN
DISPLACED TO THE WEST...SUFFICIENT CAPE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IN THE PRESENCE OF WIND PROFILES
EXHIBITING LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THIS SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED
STORM CLUSTER...OR CLUSTERS...AS WELL AS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.

IT CURRENTLY SEEMS MOST PROBABLE THAT ONE LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM COULD EVOLVE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY MID DAY SATURDAY...BEFORE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND TORNADOES...WITH PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT TORNADIC
THREAT IN DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THAT APPEARS POSSIBLE JUST
AHEAD OF THE LINE.

SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THE DETAILS ARE LESS CLEAR AS THE
SURFACE CYCLONE EITHER MIGRATES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PIEDMONT...OR
REDEVELOPS EASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

..KERR.. 02/16/2012
Quoting WxGeekVA:


GFS says Good morning WXGeekVA, here's a monster snowstorm for you!

^ Overreaction.

Let me guess, the blue line comes through my area AFTER the precipitation ends, right?
CONUS 12Z





Click Thumbnail for larger image.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


GFS says Good morning WXGeekVA, here's a monster snowstorm for you!
>.>...
Quoting LargoFl:
the weatherguys are beginning to think this will be a huge waether maker for you folks up there, classic nor'easter in fact, be careful up there


GOOOD we have only had 1.5 inches of snow...these past few winters have spoiled us in the snow department..I WANT MORE like 2010/2011 snow!!!
Perfect Parade weather in NOLA tonight.

Krewe of Muses



246. JRRP

247. MTWX
Another segment of the never ending disaster... Link
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

^ Overreaction.

Let me guess, the blue line comes through my area AFTER the precipitation ends, right?


This year, 6 inches is a monster snowstorm for me. I think about a foot right now is possible, but things can change... And yeah, you miss out, sorry.
Quoting sunlinepr:
What about some Krakatau watching?

As crazy as watching a volcano with Krakatows history sounds...This brotha would love to do it..pfft
Quoting RitaEvac:


i havent looked at normal SST for this time of year, but that seems abnormally warm, specially the gulf and just off the southeast coast near the GS!!??
excerpt from nws tallahassee

On Saturday, however, the ingredients appear to be coming together
for possibly the most widespread and significant Severe Weather Event
of the season thus far for Southeast Alabama, Southwest and South
Central Georgia, and the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle! With 0-6km
Bulk Shear Values quite possibly exceeding 80 kts, 0-3km Bulk Shears
of 50 to 60 kts, along with an 850 mb jet in excess of 50 kts,
combined with vigorous 0-1 km Helicities between 300-500 m^2/s^2,
very strong diffluent flow aloft, a rapidly deepening Sfc Low which
the models keep trending further and further to our West, Surface
Dewpoints rising into the mid 60s which could result in ML Capes
nearing 500 J/KG. This is expected to set the stage for the
development of a Large MCS with the distinct possibility of
Vigorous forerunning Supercells capable of producing Significant
Dangerous Tornadoes, as well as possible widespread straight line
wind damage. In summary, the above mentioned severe weather
parameters are very high in this instance, making this a potential
event of quite rare proportions.

It should be noted, however, that this event is still a few days
away, so the timing intensity, and overall threat level could change
before Saturday, but ALL interests in our CWA should keep abreast of
the latest forecasts from the National Weather Service in
Tallahassee, FL and the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK, and
be prepared to take quick and decisive action if needed as this
could be a very rare event for our region.
Quoting Skyepony:


If you don't trust PWSs choose your closest airport or NWS...if you don't trust that data why bother?


I was just about to suggest that. There are a number of lousy weather stations in my area, so I set my preferred stations to airports only. That was before the Best Forecast thing came out, but when it did, the accuracy was much better. I toggled back and forth for a couple of weeks, then just left it on Best.
The TCHP is warming in the Western Caribbean.

Quoting nfloridandr:
excerpt from nws tallahassee

On Saturday, however, the ingredients appear to be coming together
for possibly the most widespread and significant Severe Weather Event
of the season thus far for Southeast Alabama, Southwest and South
Central Georgia, and the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle! With 0-6km
Bulk Shear Values quite possibly exceeding 80 kts, 0-3km Bulk Shears
of 50 to 60 kts, along with an 850 mb jet in excess of 50 kts,
combined with vigorous 0-1 km Helicities between 300-500 m^2/s^2,
very strong diffluent flow aloft, a rapidly deepening Sfc Low which
the models keep trending further and further to our West, Surface
Dewpoints rising into the mid 60s which could result in ML Capes
nearing 500 J/KG. This is expected to set the stage for the
development of a Large MCS with the distinct possibility of
Vigorous forerunning Supercells capable of producing Significant
Dangerous Tornadoes, as well as possible widespread straight line
wind damage. In summary, the above mentioned severe weather
parameters are very high in this instance, making this a potential
event of quite rare proportions.

It should be noted, however, that this event is still a few days
away, so the timing intensity, and overall threat level could change
before Saturday, but ALL interests in our CWA should keep abreast of
the latest forecasts from the National Weather Service in
Tallahassee, FL and the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK, and
be prepared to take quick and decisive action if needed as this
could be a very rare event for our region.
ty for posting this, a very real dangerous event is beginning to form, as the models are slowing coming together, people need to start paying attention to whats forming in the days to come,even here in the tampa bay area the local weather guy said to watch for potential severe storms sat night and sunday morning, i hope That changes for us, but we can use any rain it can give us. had I-75 closed yesterday because of brush fires, we are very dry
With my usual bad luck, this is all south of my area in GA but from the SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook:

People really need to watch this and see what happens, it could be interesting. If discrete cells form ahead of the main line, we could have some storms similar to the April 14-16,2011 Tornado Outbreak.
Heavy rain event to take place near TX and LA coasts and offshore. Models pegging at some 4 inches somewhere. Pacific flow is in full throttle

last time there were discussions about a "rare" severe weather event we had tornado pass very near our home. it was so unusual you could hear the jet (roar) overhead for over an hour before the storms finally rolled in.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


invest west of Peru... hmm

LOW PRESSURE CENTER 1012 MB AT 09S 87W.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM E QUADRANT OF CENTER
good surf for costa rica coming
Areas with 10,000 Bq/m² of radioactivity considered "highly contaminated" by study — Over 30,000 square kilometers in Japan exceed level, 8% of nation

Published: February 16th, 2012 at 8:34 am ET By ENENews

Japan’s science ministry says 8 per cent of the country’s surface area has been contaminated by radiation from the crippled Fukushima nuclear plant.
It says more than 30,000 square kilometres of the country has been blanketed by radioactive caesium.
The ministry says most of the contamination was caused by four large plumes of radiation spewed out by the Fukushima nuclear plant in the first two weeks after meltdowns.
The government says some of the radioactive material fell with rain and snow, leaving the affected areas with accumulations of more than 10,000 becquerels of caesium per square metre. [...]
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
With my usual bad luck, this is all south of my area in GA but from the SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook:

People really need to watch this and see what happens, it could be interesting. If discrete cells form ahead of the main line, we could have some storms similar to the April 14-16,2011 Tornado Outbreak.


i am just inside the 15% line up in the Piedmont of NC
Got my ashes yesterday and very proud to have them displayed on my forehead. It is a joke the the burning of palms to create the ashes is contributing to GW is an absolute joke.