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World's Largest Weather Instrument

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:05 PM GMT on August 05, 2005

If you've driving the stretch of I-15 between Los Angeles and Las Vegas and get off at the Baker exit near Death Valley, you have the opportunity to see the ultimate tacky weather object--the world's tallest thermometer. Rising a full 134 feet above the dusty streets of Baker (population: 700),
the working thermometer is the brainchild of Baker resident Willis Herron, who spent $700,000 erecting the huge instrument. In an article in the June 2005 issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Willis says: "Awww, I know it's tacky. But I also know people won't be able to pass it more than four or five times without saying, 'What is that?'". And hopefully pull off the expressway to take a look--and buy a burger at the Mad Greek restaurant or a slice of strawberry pie at the original Bun Boy restaurant, now owned by Steve Carter, whom Herron sold the thermometer to in 2000.

The thermometer weighs 76,812 pounds, sports 4900 light bulbs, and is held together by 125 cubic yards of concrete--much of this added after 70-mph winds snapped the thermometer in half shortly after it was built in 1991. The 134 foot height is symbolic of the 134 degree maximum temperature recorded in Death Valley in 1913--the all-time record for North America.

Dr. Jeff Masters
The world's tallest thermomerter!
The world's tallest thermomerter!
Located in Baker, California, 109 degrees

Humor

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Jedkins u7sually disagrees with Stormtop so this storm is really worrying me NOW.
if either one of you are still on can you please answer me?
Rays, the folks at NHC have heard of highs too and you can be sure that any developing high is figured into their considerations. At least wait for a trend to develop before thinking the NHC is clueless or that the storm will hit Florida.
Thanks for answering me. I always listen to the NHC but you know after last year and this is 2005 weird things do happen?
But I thought that I heard last year with I think Frances they flew one of the planes out to check out the High. I am not really sure on that, but when the planes get out there we will know alot more on this storms path. Right or Wrong?
ok it's past 11pm where is Jedkins & StormTop with their 11pm predictions? Or does anyone else have a prediction they want to share?
1507. Alec
hi wild. the models keep shifting back and forth between NC and out to sea. im thinking it will head out to sea(maybe the outer banks). the high's strength is critical in determining how far west or east irene will travel. thats my quick analysis. gotta go bye..........
OK GUYS MY LATEST UPDATE ....irene still this evening looks like a formidablke storm lots of convection wrapped around all sides pretty evenly...the storm is strengthing even though the nhc is being conservative one of the reasons they havent increased it is because the recon plane wont be out there until tomorrow morning and by that time you will see a storm with 65 to 70 mph winds and very organized...the nhc has irene on a wnw heading but i find that hard to believe because they have not been able to find a clear center..i think the center is south of all the heavy convection and the storm i believe is moving west...in about 24 hours there will be a 500 mb high building to the nw of bermuda and all the data i have read tonight and the atmospheric charts lead me to believe due to the very weak trough over the se us there is nothing to keep the high from strengthing to 700mb which would definitely block any north or nw movement...the movement will be wnw then a due west heading for the next 24 hours with a possible stall by irene off the se coast sometime friday night or saturday...irene will move erratically most of saturday being caught between the high pressure to the north and the middle level low over the islands that will begin to nudge it west and possibly sw...if the high pressure builds to 700mb the threat to florida will increase..i would not let my guard down florida is by no means out of the woods..i think the recon plane when it finally locates the center it will be to the south of the nhc position...for those who believe in models the new forecast shows 4 models shifting once again to the left..the stalling by irene will only give it time to strengthen and im still predicting a cat 3 storm ...the hurricane watches for the us will be delayed until possibly sunday night as irene moves at a snails pace...i still think the watch will go up on the middle fla coast to the s car n car border...if the high goes to 700 mb then the watch will be shifted southward to include southern florida..the bottom line is we have a storm that wants to take its time and make everyone worry on the east coast..i can assure you of one thing i am certain this storm with the 500 mb high cant turn out to sea and miss the usa...this storm will affect someone on the east coast from miami to wilmington nc....if there is any weakness in the high after 72 hours the bullseye switches to the right along the s carolina georgia coast...my prediction of a landfall cat 3 would be myrtle beach or charleston.the way it stands now....my next info will be at 10am i will know much more by then........
1509. iyou
Stormtop-what causes a hurricane to stall?
a hurricane can stall for many reasons one reason is a blocking high when the storm wants to go north and the high forces it back south but in this situation the steering currents along the se coast of the us are very weak and the high pressure nw of bermuda combined with the ridging of the bermuda high will cause irene to slow down then to the south of irene there is a middle level low pressure system where irene will get caught in a squeeze play and may meander and move erratically out in the water for 24 hours until the low moves sw and gets away from irene...the 500 mb high will bridge with the bermuda high and become one strong high preesure system possibly 700 mb...thats why south fla is not out of the woods by any means..i hope i answered your question...
Good ideas from everyone today. It will probably be a few days before Irene's destination becomes clear.
Good night all.
This forecast came from flaweather.com what do you guys think of it? think it's feasible?

Tropical Storm Irene: Continues to head to the Northwest in the general direction of the Southeast United States. Although there is a large spread in the computer model forecasts, the National Hurricane Center has gained a fairly good grasp on discounting the Easternmost models. It appears that the Ridge will not weaken enough for a Northward move that would completely miss an affect on land. Irene will continue to the Northwest or even North Northwest for the next 2 days, gaining latitude to about 30 degrees North. About that time, Irene will encounter a Bermuda High building across the region from the East of Irene, toward the Carolina Coast. Not only will this allow Irene to strengthen near the Gulf Stream, but will do so as Irene moves slowly to the West Northwest towards the US Coast. There is a slight chance Irene may not reach the US Coast a all, since this forecast as more than 5 days away, however... Our most confident forecast remains to be a system that is of hurricane strength making landfall along the Southeast Coast of North Carolina, most likely not until Tuesday, possibly later, depending on its forward speed later this weekend.
Stormtop...Nice work...so far you've missed the location of Irene's center, it's current direction, it's intensification trends, and you're forecast track bears no resemblance to any credible data I can find anywhere. One wonders....with someone with thirty years of experience, how can you miss the mark by so much? I'm not an expert...I'm a casual observer of the blog for the past two weeks...but I live in Central Florida, so I have a KEEN interest on credible threats based on good data...and based on YOUR prediction that I'm not out of the woods yet...I am now confident that this thing will go nowhere near me.
Stormtop-- I hope your right witht he 700mb high pressure pushing Irene back to FL. I got my money on your predictions...
...waiting for your next update...
1515. Jedkins
I am still here and dont bash me yet becase it ain't happenin anyway,now florida landfall chances are decreasing but aren't up yet the possiblility based on this high there is a possibility that this could loop back like jeanne and dunhill3 thats exactly the attitude that made people forget jeanne and then they relized a categor 3 is heading straight for the east coast and many barely had time to prepare because they weren't WORRIED about it.I am not saying its likely to hit florida I am saying that it can happen so in case it does dont ignore the storm,but the most likely landfall seems to be the outer banks to me as category 2.
1516. Jedkins
See that is what happened with jeanne I just dont know if the possibilites are as high as they were with jeanne.
1517. SEFL
There is nothing similar with Jeanne about this storm. Stormtop is certainly tenacious, but wrong again (0-9?)
1518. Jedkins
And yes a a stall out would send it towards florida because the ridge would continue building south in fact the track for jeanne last year before the loop of jeanne occured was almost the exact same forecast as Irene same area and same strength.And the same steering currents.
If that high doesnt build and do a "Jeanne", then he is wrong....if it does and Irene comes back, the NHC are a bunch of lamers...
well mr dunhill i stick by my forecast and wait until saturday..irene will stall she has no other way to go when she gets into the influence of the bermuda high..if it strengthens like i think it might you will be apologizing to me sunday..if if the high doesnt strentgthen enough to pull irene towards the wsw then my forcast land fall position is the s carolina coast not n carolina..the stormw will make landfall between myrtle beach and the chaarleston area late tuesday night...sir i would not let your guard down just yet irene hasnt even come upon the high pressure system yet so dont be so quick to call me wrong..by the way i got the intensity right on the nose ..i suppose you need to scroll up and read my last post from 11pm last night...sir my advice to you is be ready to take quick ation you have a very complex situation with irene almost like jeanne...just a little food for thought sir..
1521. Jedkins
Yes there ARE THINGS THAT ARE SIMILAR TO JEANNE WITH IRENE.The most likely hood remains near the forecast track the left half of the track which I thnk puts NC under the bullseye but the possibility to do the same as jeanne REMAINS....That is my line of thinking.
Ok, so ALL of the models. . except the GF.. models, have it going off the coast of the US and out to sea. The NHC still seems to think it will come close.

All of the models are in good alignment, usually that means they will have it right.
Stormtop.. can you post a link or tell us how far she is from the high, you say she hasnt come close to it yet.
punkasshans-- i just looked at the models too. It seems they all ignore the H that could build up..eh?
1525. Jedkins
No then you would have aready called them that with jeanne are y'all trying not to listen look NHC goes byt what they think as mostlikely track and THEY ADMIT THEY ARE WRONG SOMETIMES TO THAT DONT MAKE THEM UNRELIEABLE.This type of storm is hard to forecast as was jeanne VERY similar steering currents and last year they origanally thought jeanne was going to pass near the outer banks of NC but many factors lessened the possibility to do that and instead of a category 1 near the outer banks a category 3 in southeast florida coast now maybe y'all will understand and if not I did my best to tell y'all and if still want more out of me than you are ignoring my words.
i agree jed people better stay tuned becuse this baby is going to slow down to a crawl if not become stationary..oh by the way MR . DUNHILL you talk about me getting the position of irene wrong well for your information sir the nhc also got it wrong in the latest advisory they placed the center more to the east sir..i suggest you read a little more about what they say and a little less critcism on your part would be appreciated...
I guess every single model could be wrong if something huge were to happen. Other than that, you would think at least 2 would have a different course. (I say GF models are basically the same). Along with the fact the center has rebuilt further to the east. . its looking more likely this storm misses the coast.

We have never had all of the models aiming the same direction. This is the first time (at least since it got near the SE coast). Even the BAMM has it going north now.
1528. Jedkins
Yes but sometimes with this type of situation that chance lessens and makes it harder to predict enough said eather. I think it will hit NC or slow down greatly and do a loop back,similar to jeanne with the north caolina situation I say category 2 with the florida not sure probably a 3.
BTW... when is the recon info coming out?? 11am??
Also when hurricanes slow down and stall, that when they can change direction the most, right?
With Irene heading NW and eventually making a nice loop around the west side of Bermuda and out to sea...

Anyone think the wave east of the Windward Islands is looking rather impressive in the last few satellite images...?
StormT - BIG JUMP TO THE WEST IN THE LAST 60 MIN..........
1533. Jedkins
I know this getting rediculus the estimating crap shoudn't be used as much they need to mesure actual windspeed direction of movent,actuall center location and windswaths,because not only do they go more conervative but unless this thing is a pretty good hurricane it's hard to pinpoint the center and models seem to do a little better with actual recon data.
1534. Jedkins
Yes they can and that would also by more time for the ridge,allowing it to build and intensify which would fill in the gap quickly.
A stalling hurricane might be vulnerable to direction changes, but it also would likely weaken. The deep water heat content is low in front of Irene. If she sits and spins, she will stir up cold water and do potential harm to herself.
1536. Jedkins
Are you certain or are you just looking at sattelite....lol.
Jeanne was a much further south storm. . it never made it over 30 N, which Irene is destined for. They also forecasted a stall in Jeanne, which they havent for Irene. There are a lot of differences between the two.

Yes they did say Jeanne would go to NC, AFTER IT STALLED. If Irene can stall out than we might have an issue. At this point the storm is moving at 15mph to the NW and forecasted to stay at that speed.
Who was it last night that said the storm will go in the direction of the deepest convection???

Well don't look now (or do) But all the deepest convection has shifted to the W or SW side and is pulling this to the LEFT or West.
1539. Jedkins
That would take a complete stall,if it still had a slow meandering pace it shouldn't hurt it much hey it didn't hurt jeanne much.
1540. Jedkins
Not really punk lol but I dont need to argue like a child.
1541. Jedkins
Yes that is EXACTLY WHAT I AM SAYIING but if it don't stal my prediction brings it to florida.
1542. Jedkins
Whoops north caorlina I meant typo.
yes recon im watching it ..big jump to the west its starting to come close to the high and that will keep it from going nw..once it passes the weakness at 30 degrees all bets are off this baby will stall and give someone fits along the east coast...irene will still have a chance to swing back to florida so all people pay attention to it at least for the next 2 days....i expect the west motion to continue and irene to start slowing in the next advisory....
1544. Jedkins
I mean in terms of where it is it is close but yes florida may want to watch very closely if really begins to slow down.
think that is just a flare up and just looks like a west move.

so when does the recon info come in??? anyone know??
1546. Jedkins
If that does happen the line of thought will have to change dramatically for the NHC.
1547. Jedkins
Flare up more intensification it will be interesting to see what the recon finds when it goes in there.
Stormtop... do u have a link on where that high is or hows its moving??
1549. Jedkins
Dont know when it is scheduled to fly into the storm.
ill be back later after i review some more data thats up to date....jed talk to you later buddy...
If it gets past 70W before 30N I am concerned that the strenght forecasts are way to modest. The water below 30N, 70W is far warmer than the water to the N of Irenes current position. Image-Link
If this system does make the W or SW jog or change in direction. What will turn it back N. Won't it be to strong by then to re-curve NW?????
well if the high strenghtens and it turns W/SW, it then cannot turn back N/NW. Stormtop did mention Irene getting closer to the high and starting to go west
if u look here

Link

last frame or 2 u see a more west direction..but could be just flare up?
Stormtop, I can still see how FL at least northern FL need to keep an eye on this storm, its been tracking now due west for 2-3 hours now, and growing. I think this high is much stronger then the models have been predicting, right now it appears that Irene is tracking left outside of NHC forecast track at 5am. It will be interesting to see the upcoming advisory at 11am
ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2005

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DEFINITELY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE
YESTERDAY. THERE IS A LOW-LEVEL CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP
CONVECTION AND A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. MICROWAVE DATA
SHOW A CONVECTIVE RING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER OF IRENE.
T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE REACHED 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SO
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS. HOWEVER...A
MORE ACCURATE MEASUREMENT OF THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF IRENE
WILL BE KNOWN WHEN AN AIR FORCE PLANE REACHES THE CYCLONE LATER
TODAY. THIS IS THE FIRST FLIGHT INTO IRENE. THE SHEAR AHEAD OF
IRENE IS FORECAST TO BE LOW..AND THAT SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE OVER A POCKET OF
RELATIVELY COOL WATERS LEFT BY FRANKLIN AND HARVEY. SO
INTENSIFICATION BEYOND CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE STRENGTH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS.

IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS
AROUND A STRONG MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE MOVES
EASTWARD...IRENE SHOULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND
NORTH INTO AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 3 DAYS AND IN
FACT...IRENE COULD BEGIN MEANDERING. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MANY
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH SHOW BASICALLY VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW
NEAR THE 3 TO 5 DAY FORECAST POSITION OF IRENE. EVENTUALLY...A
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED WHICH SHOULD TURN
THE CYCLONE AWAY FROM THE US COAST. THAT IS STILL TOO FAR IN THE
FUTURE TO BE CERTAIN.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/1500Z 28.3N 66.8W 55 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 29.2N 68.1W 65 KT
24HR VT 13/1200Z 30.0N 69.3W 75 KT
36HR VT 14/0000Z 31.0N 70.0W 75 KT
48HR VT 14/1200Z 32.0N 71.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 15/1200Z 34.0N 72.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 16/1200Z 35.0N 72.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 17/1200Z 36.5N 71.5W 75 KT


$$
NNNN


Well damn, its going to pull a Jeanne and stall out. . .
"AS THE RIDGE MOVES
EASTWARD...IRENE SHOULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND
NORTH INTO AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS"

this is just the opposite of what Stormtop has been saying...
i dont see it moving nw anymore, at least the nhc confirmed the fact of some additional strengthing, but I dont think the nhc has a grasp of tracking this storm
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/archive/model/AL962005_lrg.gif

Watch out, could we be looking at a new storm in the future?
NOTE:

12 UTC models have NOT ONE hitting the coast. Yes they have it stalling out, but just as the NHC says, it moves out to sea.

Even the GF models have shifted.
Ok I have now lost allllll confidence in the NHC. The storm is moving WNW if not W. This is so wierd. No track change??? ARE THEY BLIND??
53rd im in the same boat with you, they must have all went to lunch early, or basing their facts before 9am, since about 9 this thing has been cooking much more west, with maybe a slight movement north
Hello guys.....we'll ive been looking for a precise forecast from our outspoken "STORMTOP".....forgive me if Ive missed it, but I havent seen a precise forcast from him.......has anyone seen one.....I would like to know...if he hasnt, then It wont be considered....anyone can wait till the last moment......
he said he will have one at 11am

Im still hoping it curves back to FL and hits us... (*devil*)
the NHC track is way off

Link
click on "trop fcst point" its already moving west of that.. BAM!
this reminds me of the GFS model run, I think yesterday, where it had her moving up to 30 deg, then curving back SW...

*waiting for Stormtop's update*
1568. Jedkins
Use the WU zoom satelite it is more up to date then the floater and can zoom in closer it is definately in the short term for now moving west or west southwest and slowing down
1569. Jedkins
I think the gfs is right there except for the disapate part lol.
Maybe it is just me but to my eyes the storm over the past few hours has not been moving north-west. It in fact looks to be moving west to wnw and all of the convection is on the south-west side of the storm and not on the north-east side of the storm which caused its north-west movement. Maybe it is just expanding or in fact moving west but if this continues then it is heading toward warmer waters. what do you people think?
Link

thats the track
Is it true that we have to wait for the NOAA from MacDill to get out there to get a true output on the High Pressure. Jedkins or Stormtop?
I see it taking a weakness in the ridge which is off the coast of central florida, hope it is just temporary lord knows we dont need anymore FL based suprises
Irene sensed that there is cold water up ahead.. so she turned west ha
NHC confirms a new depression may be trying to form east of the Windwards...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS FORMED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST.
YEP.. Jose is coming after his girl Irene... :D
This may sound kind of stupid but i have seen some weird things out of storms. Hurricane ivan last year was orriginally supposed to split the state of florida in half making landfall in marathon and just going right through the state but at jamaica after heading wnw and appearing to go nw all of a sudden goes due west for a day avoiding the mountains and then went around cuba across the smallest and flattest part of the island. All storms make unforecasted moves and this one already has a bad track record with the nhc and no models are seeing what is happenning right now so i do not know what forecast to trust until the hurricane hunter goes out there today and finds out the truth. Maybe the high is stronger than it should be or maybe the storm is stronger than they are saying it is. the nhc will not declare the west motion until it sustains itself for 6 hours at least.
Almost there 68W 28N--Link

I bet it will make it to 70W without being at 30N. It has gotten rather un-rganized which would cause it to go West right now.
Visible images show that the center is directly on the NHC forecast points. They still have it right. New convection starting to develop around this center.
Well you are wrong. The next forecast point is to far to the N of the the center and it has it as a CAT 1. wrong and wrong. The weaker it is at this point the further west it will go. and right now it is not ready to become a CAT1 or go that steeply north. This could change if she strenghtens significantly right now. But she is having a real tough time. She hit a wall of a High Pressure and bounced off making her weaken as she changed directions.
where the hell is Stormtop.... I gotta see what he says

and yes punk..u r wrong. NHC is too far north, she just turned left like recon said
think that Florida might be in it again for this one if Stormtop is Right.
What recon observation are you getting? can you give me a link?
look at

Link

and zoom in. you'll see she never touches the 30 mark
The ciculation, you have to agree, is where the new burst of convection is located, right?
I'm still going with the concept that the weaker she is - the further west she'll go - the stronger she is - the further north she'll go. This is the pattern she's been following for a few days now. At this moment, she has lost most of her significant convection - and appears to have drifted west.
well.. b4 I thought was the eye was really just a patch of no clouds. this could be the same. have to wait to c where she moves next.
punk - I would agree with you that the forecast points remain pretty accurate. The attempted burst at new convection is near the forecast points. The previous convection, which has now died off - is what caused the illusion of a westward drift.
There is no "eye", just a center of circulation, and it is just north of the new convection. The new convection, to me, looks like it is on the south edge of the center of circulation. This center of circulation would have been right on top of the old tropical storm point that it has now passed. The storm is getting its act together again and it will be strengthening very soon.
I wouldnt be surprised if this storm LOOKS like it has an eye over the next few IR frames. However, that will fill in shortly. It may be slightly weaker than they would have expected because of the reduction in high cloud tops over the last hour or so. . but its on the rebound. It may delay the hurricane status by one advisory, but even than, the next advisory isnt untill 5pm, and thats a long time away. 4 hours of development can lead to a lot of strengthening. However, once it goes another 1-2 degrees north, this storm hits cool water temps. We might even see it fall apart once again for a few hours.
im surprised as close as she is, no watches are up yet....
punk, I'm with you... the center is still very near the NHC forecast points and still moving wnw to nw. The westward movement some are seeing is likely due to the upper low to the southwest pulling the western outflow even farther west, which makes it appear the storm's center of mass has shifted westward. If you watch the visible loop (Link) you can clearly see a surface high is centered just off the right side of the view. The surface flow on the west side of this high pressure center, where Irene is now, clearly has a southerly component which should keep the storm moving wnw to nw for a little while longer at least. It looks like Irene just shot northwestward into the weakness too fast and even as the Bermuda high tries to build back westward toward the US coast Irene will have already gone too far north to get pushed back to the coast.
The local meteorologist is saying she may stall and come closer to the coast.
hey..look at the last frames just now.. it really looks like there is an "eye" now

Link
so you are saying that this stormm could not pull a Jeanne?
Storm or Jenkins if you are on would like your input......
who is "you"?
punk this storm is just getting to feel the high pressure system which is stronger then the hurricane center says..i figure its a little over 600mb high to the north of irene and combined with the middle level low to the south of irene in the islands irene will begin to slow which she already has started to do...once she comes to a stall the nhc will again have to revise the track position the computers are now saying..to show you how screwd up the computers are they are all saying that irene is going out to sea which if you believe that i will sell you the superdome i own...thats why i have little faith in computers...i will repeat this one more time FLORIDA IS NOT OUT THE WOODS...IT HAS A LONG WAY TO GO YET..THIS IS A SCENARIO SETTING UP LIKE JEANNE..THIS STORM IS GOING TO GET STRONGER AS IT APPROACHES THE TEMPS ARE RUNNING 88 DEGREES WHERE IT IS NOW WITH LITTLE SHEAR AND NOTHING TO STOP IT FORM BECOMING A CAT 3 HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL...IT WILL BE DELAYED BECAUSE OF THE SLOW DOWN AND EVEN A POSSIBILITY OF A STALL FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS..SO FLORIDA DONT LET YOUR GUARD DOWN THE WEAKNESS HAS FILLED AND IRENE CANT GO OUT TO SEA I REPEAT THIS AGAIN CANT GO OUT TO SEA THE HIGH PRESSURE IS JUST TO STRONG TO TURN NORTH INTO IT...RECON WILL BE DOWN THERE TO CONFIRM THE CENTER POSITION AND REMEMBER GUYS THIS IS THE FIRST RECON FLIGHT INTO IRENE SINCE IT GOT STARTED...THEY WILL CONFIRM A MORE WEST COURSE....ILL BE BACK LATER.....
Everyone should try the following satellite link. It has a high quality zoom and the images today are being updated every 5 to 10 minutes... once you turn up the speed you can really get a good idea of the core's organization and the exact center of circulation.

Link
whats up Stormtop..glad to c u.

yeah the models r all screwed up, they ALL say the storm will go out to sea.. LOL

Im really anxious to see what the high will do!!!!!
Thank YOu Storm top but do you see more of a west movement to this storm as it appears in the Satellite?
when do u think that the nhc will finnally come out and say that they have been wrong the past few days and that the models are screwed up. If this storm stalls this storm could go anywhere from south florida to bermuda, anything could happen!!!
You know they were way off with Jeanne last year, nobody is right people are wrong and computers are wrong. SO lets not dog anybody.
they were also off with charley last year, ppl were expecting this storm to hit tampa as a cat 2 and it hit punta gorda/port charlotte as a strong cat 4. People died b/c they were so off but that storm did give credibility to the fsu model b/c it had that storm right on the money the whole time.
I know I live in Tampa and got ready for it to hit but they did say that Punta Gorda way in that cone of uncertainty that people should always can percautions. I would like to know what the FSU Model is saying right now.
Hey everyone.

Due to the extremely heavy posting occuring on Jeff and Steve's Blog's, it was requested yesterday by many, including Steve that a sub-blog for tropical discussion be created.

Just passing knowledge, here that the evolution blog has been established for this sole purpose. Thanks for using it and alleviating much of the comment congestion on the main blog's.

I have made a tropical weather chat room. Thanks evolution for giving me the idea.
miamihurricane,

the NHC never say it is definately going to hit a location. they give a window. . punta gorda was inside that window. The storm moved and it hit them. I remember many times, hours before it made landfall, the weather channel, the NHC and others saying that it was moving south of the previous projected landfall. the people of punta gorda should have been prepared and have evacuated. the NHC just suggests what people should do, if no evacuation order was given, thats the local administrations fault, not the NHC. If you are in the cone, you are in danger!

This year they have forecasted the storms VERY well. Emily was perfect and so was Dennis along with the tropical storms. Dont come out and say they know nothing. Just wait for the storm to follow their excact path. I still think it will.
Also, for anyone interested.

HurricaneKing has established the 'weather chat room blog'.
He asks anyone who wishes to discuss weather, and whatever else to visit his blog.

Hopefully with the establishment of these two new sub-blogs we can alleviate the intense volume of posts occuring on the main blogs. They need to remain open for Jeff and Steve to realistically answer questions and add comments and discuss important data when appropriate.
1611. SEFL
RECON FIX 28,5N / 67.1W 997mb, max wind 60Kts. Here is position as fixed by the recon flight. Still nw.
ok another fly in the ointment the nhc is not talking about is a cold front that is moving towards the east coast as we speak...this is another reason why i think irene will slow down to a crawl and this baby will start to move erratcally saturday and sunday...recon is finally getting the NW MOTION OUT THE WAY AND SAYS ITS MOVING WNW WHICH I KIND OF AGREE WITH RIGHT NOW BUT THAT WILL CHANGE AS TIMES GOES BY...IRENES NEW PRESSURE 29.44INCHES MEASURED BY AIR RECON..THIS STORM WILL PLAY BALL WITHT HE NHC AND WILL KEEP THEM ON THERE TOES ALL WEEKEND...I STRESS ONCE AGAIN UNTIL SUNDAY PEOPLE IN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE AND BE READY FOR THIS THING TO STALL OUT AND START TO MEANDERING IN AND ERRATIC FASHION...IM JUST BEING CAUTIOUS I DONT WANT FLA TO BE CAUGHT OFF GUARD..THE LATESET CONE BY THE NHC IS A JOKE..THERE IS NO LANDFALL CURRENTLY IN THE CONE...THE NHC THEORY IS ITS GOING OUT TO SEA AND NOT AFFECTING ANYONE .....I DONT BUY THAT WHAT IM SEEING FROM THE VAPOR AND SATELLITE PICS AND ALSO THE DATA I HAVE SEEN FROM THIS HIGH PRESSRE SYSTEM REINFORCING THE BERMUDA HIGH...I AM NOT READ Y TO MAKE A PREDICTION YET BECAUSE I FEEL WE WILL BE DEALING WITH IRENE UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...IM NOT TRYING TO BE PROBLEMATIC BUT TRYING TO BE REAL ABOUT THIS..THIS IS NO JOKE PEOPLE ARE GOING TO BE IN THE LINE OF FIRE..IF YOU COULD ONLY SEE THE POSSIBILITIES SOME OF THESE COMPUTERS ARE FORCASTING...ONE HAS IT GOING OVER BERMUDA..I DONT SEE HOW THAT CAN HAPPEN BEING ITS ALREADY SSE OF BERMUDA IT WOULD HAVE TO DO A BACKWARD FLIP..IM OPEN FOR QUESTIONS RIGHT NOW WHILE I REVIEW THE LATEST DATA FROM THE RECON...
hi stormtp when do you think they will get a good fix on the high pressure that could block this thing from going North? DO you think there could be the possibility that it could turn and go to East Central FLorida?
1614. SEFL
This storm will continue wnw, nw and perhaps meander a little after three days. Then the steering currents related to the cold front will most likely push it out to sea. This storm will not impact Florida. you need to back off and look at the big picture , where she been and where looks to be going instead of just eye balling the the storm.

Those periodic wobbles are just that, not a change in direction. The recon confirmed the direction. Stormtop is certainly tenacious and I appreciate his concern about Florida, but he is getting lost in the trees.
RAY I THINK YOU WILL GET A GOOD READ ON THE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH I HAVE AT OVER 600MB RIGHT NOW BY TOMORROW MORNING...THE WAY YOU CAN TELL RAY IS WATCH THE STORMS FORWARD MOVEMENT ..IT WAS MOVING AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY AT 17MPH..RIGHT NOW ITS MOVING AT 13 MORE LIKE 10 IN MY ESTIMATION...AS TIME GOES BY THE SLOWER IT WILL GO RAY AND THEN WHEN IT TRIES TO BUCK THE HIGH WHICH IT IS DOING NOW IT WILL BE STOPPED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE...NOT TO MENTION THE COLD FRONT THATS GOING TO BE ALONG THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY...THERE IS LOTS GOING ON RIGHT NOW RAY LOTS OF POSSIBILITIES...THE ANSWER TO YOUR QUESTION IS YES SURE IT COUILD STALL AND MOVE BACK TOWARDS FLORIDA..WHEN A HURRICANE IS STALLED ALL BETS ARE OFF RAY...KEEP AND EYE ON THIS ONE..I WILL NOT CALL FLA OUT THE WOODS UNTIL SUNDAY IF THEN..
thank you storm will you have ab update with the 5:00 or are yoiu going to wait till the 11:00?
what about the wave going towards the Caribbean what do you see going on with that one? Jose?
based on the past, Jeanne and Andrew were supposed to do the famous curve out to see, with a possibility of a nc landfall, last minute changes happen and people could only get 1-2 days notice of being threatened by a storm. Its best to be on guard then shrug it off and say its not hitting someplace.
I think we need to watch that wave for one to two days before we can really make a strong prediction on that wave turning into a depression, let alone Jose. It does not look strong on satellite at the moment (or at least when I last looked).
cornflake,

I agree, it is good to be on guard. However, I too dont think its going to Florida. But I wont get to watch it much over the weekend, as I dont have internet when I am at home.
The FSU Superensemble is right a great percentage of the time. How can we know what it is predicting?
1622. SEFL
Some additional forecast tracks

http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_spaghetti2.aspLink
I think that after last year Everyone should have learned to always be on Guard with these things.
OK RIGHT NOW THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE STORM IS TO THE BACK...THIS IS CRUCIAL THERE IS A REASON WHY THE CONVECTION IS NOT DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM LIKE IT SHOULD BE...THE REASON IS THE HIGH PRESSURE IS TO STRONG FOR CONVECTION TO FORM IN THER NORTH OR NE QUADRANT OF THE STORM..YOU NEED TO LOOK AT ALL OF THE PUZZLE..THIS STORM IS STRENGTHING AND IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED..SATELLITE PICS SHOW A DEFINITE WNW MOVEMENT AND A SLOWER SPEED IN THE LAST HOUR...THIS STORM IS SLOWING DOWN AND YOU WILL SEE THAT IN THE NEXT ADVISORY WITH THE WINDS UP PRETTY CLOSE TO HURRICANE FORCE..A PRESSURE OF 29.34 INCHES USUALLY MEANS 75 -80 MPH WINDS..IRENES PRESSURE IS CONTINUING TO FALL AND I WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF IRENE REACHES HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 11PM...
sefl, we all know that these models cant predict the highs all the time, I think Stormtop might be right that this high is building stronger then thought and forecasted. Also throughout the development of Irene, these models haven't really been doing a good job. I only believe models when they all are stacked up on each other not so spread out and frequent changes in their tracks
1626. SEFL
Stormtop, please don't shout.
so you are saying that hthe High is getting stronger faster then what the NHC thinks?
1628. SEFL
It looks like 5 of the 6 are "stacked up" Do you not think the nhc knows about the placement of the high. They have said all along the high would have an impact. You can choose to believe stormtop and I will choose to place more credence in the NHC. We all have opinions, and shouting them out doesn't make one better than another.

The NHC discussions have been on target all week. Stormtop has modified his all week....just put the turn west off til later. I think the NHC record is better, thats all.
1629. SEFL
Also the NHC forecast is not simply taking the models at face value. The models are part of the forecast. The discussion even comments on their thoughts about the models and why they make the forecast they do. They are not operating in a vacuum and they aren't idiots.
No, I'm not saying I am not doubting the NHC forecast, what I am saying is nobody can give a perfect forecast, things change in weather without any notice. Its the nature of the beast. Just like how everybody put faith in Jeanne last year of pulling out into the big blue ocean, sometimes its hit or miss. Nobody should put their guard down. Look at Ivan came through the panhandle exited off VA/NC looped back down to FL as a wave and emerged as TS in the Gulf again days later. Do you think NHC predicted that to happen!
this is what the nhc thinking is right now for all of you are wondering....the high pressure system that i said is a 600mb high has split up into 2 highs leaving and alley way for the storm to take to the north and move out to sea...i cant see this happening because none of the convection right now is in the north or ne quadrant...i think this scenario will not materialize...but thats why they have the cone like they do ...just for everyones understands there thinking....
1632. WSI
Quote from Stormtop...

"..IF YOU COULD ONLY SEE THE POSSIBILITIES SOME OF THESE COMPUTERS ARE FORCASTING"


What computers are showing this Stormtop? I have yet to see a model that is predicting this. What link did you get this from? What model is it?
1633. SEFL
Cornflake, of course the NHC didn't predict Ivan's path at the start but the constantly updated that and all predictions. I wasn't surprized by Jeanne, I had plenty of notice from the NHC to put up the shutters and prepare for the hurricane. That's what their predictions are about. Its not taking the predicted path when Irene was made a tropical depression and seeing how good a job they did with that.
look wsi ans self i dont want to get into and arguement with you guys or girls whatever the casr may be..im just giving you my analysis of irene as it stands right now..what i see on the satellite oic and the water vapor loops i dont like ..everything from irene is building back towards the s and sw ..im talking about the convection in case you are confused..another thing is a sure west movement you would have to be blind if you think irene is moving towards the nw..you have your opinion and i have mind...if you dont like mind i understand but this is serious we could be dealing with a cat 3 by sunday morning stalled somewhere off the east coast of the us..i am just trying to tell people in florida who have really had it bad to keep a close watch on this one...irene is the sleeper of 2005 and can pose major problems to someone on the east coast..i can assure you of this it is not going to go out to sea..it will hit the us mainland...now you can argue with me till the cows come home and i will stick to what i just said..the computers do not have a good grasp on this storm they never did...i went back over the records and since irene became a tropical storm you so called faithful computers have changed there minds 11 times from shifting left then shifting right then back to left again until now they all are out to sea well i say there out to lunch...thats all i have to say about that...
1635. WSI
Stormtop, quit getting defensive. I had a very simple question. You said some of the computers were predicting Irene to go over Bermuda. None of the computer models I see today, or have seen in the past few days have said that. I am just curious what computer models you are referring to. So, I ask again, what models are you looking at that are predicting this? Where is the link where the rest of us can view this data? Thank you for your quick response to this question.
1636. SEFL
Stormtop, I am not arguing with you and I resent your subtle innuendo. Of course the models change over time. Have you changes your mind about this storm? How many times have you made modifications to your predictions? I seem to recall a comment disparaging everyone here for worrying about that wuss Irene. I guess you changed your mind since you are now telling the people of Florida to keep a close eye on this one.

It is absurd to think that weather predictions will not be modified over time. I read your predictions, but I have more faith in the NHC. You get this one right and I'll subscribe to your forecasting service.
lol ok mr self....i was not disagreeing with you..im not trying to be defensive ichanged my mind according to my posts which you are more and welcome to go back and read a total of 2 times..my first and only prediction i made was out to sea...the next one was the east coast of the us from daytona beack to s carolina n carolina border..my prediction was a landfall at myrtle beach and charleston sc if the high did not strengthen..im not tryin to hidae anything mr self im just trying to give you the facts as i perceive them without arguing...i hope you understand what im trying to say..now as for florida im still worried about them ..if this storm stalls lie i think it is it can go anywhere mr self..all bets are off it could hir miami to n york if this happens..thats why you need to pay attention to irene before she sneaks up on you as a cat 3...i hope i cleared things up mr self..
1638. Jedkins
By the way the recon plane found I think was a CLOSED 30 mile wide eye.
1639. Jedkins
Oh and y'all already know what my prediction is and I am not changing it yet,if I continued to teel the same thing that would be spam or needless posts so stop tryin to git under my skin.
Jedkins what is your thought should still in thoughts as of earlier today?I know that you were going sith Storm earlier today.
1641. WSI
Stormtop, I would like to know what computer model is predicting Irene to go over Bermuda please. I mean, I thought I had all of the computer models linked on my weather page. You must have one I don't? I can't find one going over Bermuda. Seriously. I am not being mean, I just would like to know what you are seeing that I am not. Thanks.

1642. Jedkins
The northeast U.S. is very unlikely mainly because the conditions raley allow storms to make landfall there.
well lets see the storm was moving yesterday at 17 this morning 15 at 11am 13 now 5pm adv 10mph..seems a major slow down to me and i think by 11pm you are looking at 6 mph...the storm is also strengthing and i said it would reach hurricane force by 11pm tonight..im still sticking to my original forecast and a cat 3 hurricane stalled along the east coast sat and sunday...ill be back at midnight when i receive more new data...i want to repeat again FLORIDA IS NOT OUT THE WOODS...
could florida beout of it? maybe?
1645. SEFL
For an additional point of reference, here is what NHC is predicting

Link
news station in tampa are saying that it is looking to them that the storm is moving due East are you watching Jedkins?
due west I am sorry about that? Trying to do 3 things at one time>.
ray you will find in time everything i have said will happen..it slowed to 10mph now and yes its been moving on a west heading for about 3 hours now..i dont know why the recon plane has it on a nw movement..that ias a joke...ill be back at midnight ray to give you some new info...just keep your eye on the storm and how fast its going that will be your key ray when it stalls out completely that im right..
before you go i thought that I read on one of the sites or maybe here that it has to stay on that movement for 6 hrs. is that true?
1650. SEFL
So now the recon reports are a joke? I guess Stormtop's highly secret equipment trumps what we thought was a well equiped hurricane hunter. Just unbelievable