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World Series rainout?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:53 PM GMT on October 25, 2006

Tonight's World Series game in St. Louis between the Tigers and the Cardinals has about a 60% chance of being rained out. A developing low pressure system over the Texas Panhandle is expected to pump plenty of moisture-laden air from the Gulf of Mexico northwards over Missouri today and tonight. An area of steady rain, already visible on regional radar, is moving northwards towards St. Louis, and should arrive at about 7pm local time. If the rain can hold off an extra two hours, there is chance they'll be able to play the game, but right now I'm expecting that the game will be rescheduled for Thursday. The weather outlook is a bit better for Thursday evening's game, but the low pressure system is moving slowly and will still be bringing rain and a few thunderstorms to Missouri through Friday afternoon. I give it a 30% chance of a rainout for Thursday. A rainout should act to give the Tigers a chance to regroup, get their game on track, and make this a competitive series! After the last rainout, the Tigers responded with seven straight victories.

The tropics
Tropical Storm Paul is still alive despite 30 knots of wind shear, but the severely weakened storm is not capable of causing significant damage with its 45 mph winds. Wind shear is expected to increase even more today, finishing off Paul as a tropical cyclone by Thursday, as it makes landfall along the coast of Mexico north of Mazatlan. Los Cabos radar shows just a few heavy thunderstorms near Baja.

In the Atlantic, there are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical development over the next six days. However, the GFS model is forecasting that a tropical storm may develop in the western Caribbean late next week.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Paul, updated every 1/2 hour.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Shhhhhh - don't make any noise
Just what the Tigers need!! Lets go rain!!
Thanks Dr. Masters.

Although I am bummed that I might not be able to watch game 4 tonight...
Wow...and entire season and no big landfalls. We are so deserving of that break this year.
Per Dr. Masters..." However, the GFS model is forecasting that a tropical storm may develop in the western Caribbean late next week."....

Yeah it does. Probably won't happen...but thanks for a world series update.
With this absurdly prolonged playoff system that has been imposed on MLB by owners hungry for more advertising dollars, the day will come when we will see a World Series game called on account of blizzard.
Got a GFS link anyone?
Ranger: "The day will come"? Easy prognostication!

That blizzard that buried Buffalo could just as easily have hit Cleveland, which could (really!) have had a team in the playoffs, much less the Series.

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if a baseball game has already been called on account of snow, although I don't know for sure.

The extension of the playoffs by five games (plus a night off), less than a week, only makes it a little more likely.
hi "dude" I live in Buffalo and our team the Bisons has cancelled opening day before due to snow.lol Thats in like late march or April I think our st patricks day parade been snowed out more than once too.
you never know what can happen up there if the wind blows oer the lakes just the right way. still few hundred without power since 13th.
11. IKE
GFS link>>>>Link
definitely april games in kansas city, cleveland, chicago and other places have been called for snow in the past...
who says this is a quiet season, a tropical storm is threatening to cancel a world series game! LOL But TS Paul is helping to bring moisture into what normally might be a relatively dry storm traversing the midwest...
14. V26R
Anyone care to comment on the Blob a few miles east of the Carib Islands?
Seems to be trying to do something for the past few days
15. V26R
Anyone Home???
V26R nothing to worry about with this wave as the 11:30am from the NHC states unfavorable conditions remain in the area.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED OCT 25 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED
.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

17. V26R
Thanks Hurricane
Flying down Island Antigua tomorrow and looks kind of ominous on the Satellite Pix
Really didn't want to fly into any suprises!
If convection manages to persists for 24hours there might be an invest tag put out on it but in general iam next expecting any sinificant development from this tropical wave.It will most probably track to the N as it is unlikely it will miss the front and continue westward into the caribbean. Adrian
19. V26R
Lets hope so
My Buds down there reported to me that they had a few bad squalls move thru last night and this morning. Probably typical local Tropic Stuff
20. V26R
Thanks again Adrian de Mike
no problem.
Hurricane23, Hello and good morning, would you also be wxman57 who posts on Storm2k.org? Here's what he posted at 10:31 am. If it is you, good job, I totally agree, if not you, I think proper credit should be given when posting other peoples observations.
It looks quite impressive this morning. I would place the area of concern near 12N/48W. A long WV loop reveals moderate shear 24 hours ago has given way to a ridge aloft. Convection was originally enhanced by a weak upper low, but that low is gone. The key to whether or not it develops is if that convection can remain as organized as it is now for another 24 hours. If it does, then we could have a depression/storm on our hands. Wouldnt be surprised if its not given an invest number this afternoon if it doesnt weaken by then.

As for a possible track, it may well move NNW then N right up the front to its northweset. Slight chance it may miss the front and track west.
Oh wthrobserver if you only knew about our friend Hur23. Its a long story. I will fill you in oneday since this tropical season is just about over.
wthrobserver....LMAO!
You guys are full of crap!On visible imagery you can clearly see the front approaching this tropical wave which will turn it to the N and then to the NE.Also as i stated if convection persists an invest tag might be out out.
You stated it?? Are you sure about that?
Weatherguy might be full of crap...but I'm not..lol!
wthrobserver its clearly seen on visible imagery that a cold-front is approaching the area were this TW is presently located.
Ha Ha!! Thanks Rand.
Sorry....slow day 03.
Hurricane23 if the post by WXMAN and yours are coincidence and that friday you also had a post here that was from another STORM2K.ORG poster that was coincidence also, then you are one lucky person and I would suggest you invest in your states lottery. I do thank you, for it drew my attention to their site and I wouldn't have except for your indirect actions. I feel Wunderground offers more links and scientific data and I think Dr. Masters is one of the brightest minds when it comes to tropical systems and relaying that information to the average man, but STORM2K has less drama.
Weather03 here's a visible shot of the front approaching the tropical wave which will help cause a northward turn and NE.Its unlikely it will continue west for much longer as the front will likely turn it away.

Hur23, you dont have to explain that to me. Thank you anyway. Nothing develops East of the Islands this time of year, I wasnt even looking out there.
In the Atlantic, there are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical development over the next six days. However, the GFS model is forecasting that a tropical storm may develop in the western Caribbean late next week.

::sigh:: That would put us into a NOV time frame... SAY IT AIN'T SO!!! LOL!!!
No repeats to the prolonged agony of 2005 season, PLEASE!!! ::G::
Hurricane23, this is truly amazing, that is the black and white version of what THE EUREPEAN posted on STROM2K.ORG at 9;53 am. Three coincidences in such a short span. The California Lottery is tonight, can you forecast the numbers for me please?
Hey, at least I dont ever have to go to that site when we have Hur23 copying everything from there. He has saved me alot of time this season!
This is from a 19 Oct 2006 Reuters interview with Max Mayfield, Director of the National Hurricane Center.

The hurricane center director said he could not pronounce the 2006 season definitively over before the end of November. He recalled that in 1984, also an El Nino year, Hurricane Lili formed in December and lasted until Christmas Eve.

"So it's still not over. But I would think the message here is the last thing we want to do is start forgetting about hurricanes now," he said.
full article

Or in the words of other great and wise Americans

"The opera ain't over until the fat lady sings." Dan Cook, San Antonio sports writer/broadcaster.

"It ain't over 'til it's over." Yogi Berra, N.Y. Yankees Hall of Famer.
I do not believe the GFS scenario will take place.The 12z is out to 138hrs and it shows nothing.On the 06 GFS it showed a disturbance at 312hrs moving N or NE moving into the GOM.Click here for 12z GFS.
Weather, I don't have any problem with anyone copying and pasting from others sites. I would think that Wunderground would take exception to copywrited material, but I would hope people would realize that other sites also have educated people and their knowledge shared with more people only enriches. My only position on the matter is those people should receive the credit for their thoughts and observations. Hurricane23, you're not a lesser person by posting someone elses work, in fact it shows your passion for the tropics.
wthrobserver dont you have something else more constructive to do then trying to put out these ridiculous ideas?Look at visible imagery and you can see the cold-front approaching this wave which most likely cause it to scoot out to the NE.
Hopefully el nino will stick around next year to allow for the quiet times to continue.
42. IKE
Posted By: hurricane23 at 11:23 AM CDT on October 25, 2006.

I do not believe the GFS scenario will take place.The 12z is out to 138hrs and it shows nothing.


The 6Z GFS didn't show anything @ 138 hours either..it's beyond that.
Posted By: hurricane23 at 4:36 PM GMT on October 25, 2006.

Hopefully el nino will stick around next season to allow for the quiet times to continue


Unfortinatly, It is most likley this will be the quite time this year next Year 07 is most likley a active year maybe like 03
IKE my point is this is extremely long range and most likely will not take place.
Because the El Nino is going to peak maybe in
Feb and weaken (This El Nino formed right in the middle of the season) and The La nina will be weak to moderate infulincing the formation of Tropical Cyclones
46. IKE
Posted By: hurricane23 at 11:39 AM CDT on October 25, 2006.

IKE my point is this is extremely long range and most likely will not take place.


Agree.
Posted By: hurricane23 at 4:39 PM GMT on October 25, 2006.

IKE my point is this is extremely long range and most likely will not take place.
Posted By: IKE at 4:42 PM GMT on October 25, 2006.

Posted By: hurricane23 at 11:39 AM CDT on October 25, 2006.

IKE my point is this is extremely long range and most likely will not take place.

Agree.


I agree to El Nino is to strong
I agree also wthrobserver. But, like you said, it would be nice if before the post it could say something like, "Hey I found this here, etc.." But, info is good, and Hur23 has provided us with that this season.
Hurricane23, in response to your query, I have 2 broken legs and for the time being I'm caught up on all paperwork. It's what gives me so much free time to surf the internet. Now, please note that I did not toss out some accusation I posted the material I believe you referenced in your post. Please note that although some words are changed and others are omitted, the verbage is the same and the posts follow the same train of thought. Again, if coincidence, it's truly amazing. I'll reference your post and WXMANS below to show you the similarities.

WXMANS Post:
It looks quite impressive this morning. I would place the area of concern near 12N/48W. A long WV loop reveals moderate shear 24 hours ago has given way to a ridge aloft. Convection was originally enhanced by a weak upper low, but that low is gone. The key to whether or not it develops is if that convection can remain as organized as it is now for another 24 hours. If it does, then we could have a depression/storm on our hands. Wouldnt be surprised if its not given an invest number this afternoon if it doesnt weaken by then.

As for a possible track, it may well move NNW then N right up the front to its northweset. Slight chance it may miss the front and track west


Your Post:
If convection manages to persists for 24hours there might be an invest tag put out on it but in general iam next expecting any sinificant development from this tropical wave.It will most probably track to the N as it is unlikely it will miss the front and continue westward into the caribbean. Adrian
As per Noaa's long range models, EL NINO is projected to influence the Pacific through May of 2007
In support of the mood on the board, I will learn form 23 and post my completely unique view of the situation:

It looks quite impressive this morning. I would place the area of concern near 12N/48W. A long WV loop reveals moderate shear 24 hours ago has given way to a ridge aloft. Convection was originally enhanced by a weak upper low, but that low is gone. The key to whether or not it develops is if that convection can remain as organized as it is now for another 24 hours. If it does, then we could have a depression/storm on our hands. Wouldnt be surprised if its not given an invest number this afternoon if it doesnt weaken by then.

As for a possible track, it may well move NNW then N right up the front to its northweset. Slight chance it may miss the front and track west
on a serious note, how does the convergence and divergence look around this area?
question #2. Does the 1004 off the Carolinas hold any merit?

72 hour urface forecast

Nice waves and barbs in a somewaht circular motion

72 hour wind wave forecast
Patraps fine ,resting well from procedure.He said for me to put this here..and yall would understands..Hope it works,,mrs,Patrap..Link
good to hear Patrap is doing well. Give him our best wishes.
Thankfully paul weakened and there wasn't any significant impact in the area.
Tell Pat we're laughing out loud! Happy to hear he is well.
Hey guys. It has been a busy day for me, so I just read Dr. Masters update. I ran the 12z GFS and I don't see anything developing in the W. Carribbean.
Hey nash28!Yea there is much on the 12z GFS.Its showing a disturbance in the the BOC at 384hrs which will probably not happen.If the GFS was right we would have had 50 systems this year.It has a habbit of making up these fantasy systems all over the basin that never take place.
You forgot your signature Adrian, man I can't stand reading your conterfeit posts.
Dr. Masters - Can you make that rain come in at 1900 hours. Our Tigers do need a rainout so they can get it together. We need a victory tonight or Thursday, so we can get back home. Thanks for taking care of this, I know you will make it rain (I have faith in you controlling the rain, not just predicting it) Now, let's go Tigers!

Bless You Boys
Go Get 'Em Tigers!!!

PS - Is this rain going to follow them to Detroit on the weekend?
Alright Rapid, there is no need to get snippy on here.
In fact, if you have a beef with someone, either keep it to yourself, or send them an email.

It has been nice lately not to see the vitriol on this board that has infested it like a fungus all summer long.
I can't tell you how much I enjoyed wthrobserver pointing out Hurricane23's fraudulent ways. What a delicious expos!

I don't care if they are educational or not. Cite them!

That's fine Utah, I don't have a problem with that. My problem is with muddying up the blog with the blasting. It becomes tedious to read through.

That's why there is email on here.
nash - I was just thinking how I would enjoy a few flaming nashisms today - how are you by the way?
Doing ok Saddle. And by the way, thank you.

It helped.
I don't mind the tedious. I apparently have *enough time to muck around this blog on a regular basis when I should be working. I am sure many of you are under similar circumstances. Such is life. You have to dig to find the gems!

Call me a fungus harborer, but I enjoy credit where credit is due (even if it is negative credit).
not to see the vitriol on this board that has infested it like a fungus all summer long.

Dang...Nash must be mellow today!
Glad it helped. Maybe some day I can help again.
Yeah Rand.... A little mellow. Enjoy it while it lasts.

Now I will get my ass kicking stick out if the trolls return.

There is NEVER a holiday with those lovely folks:-)
Mellow is good....unfortunately that doesn't last long here.
Nash, are you bored today??..LOL
Yeah, a bit bored I guess...
SINCE you guys are bored, how about a forecast for southeast Alabama, such as ARE THERE or ARE THERE NOT going to be severe storms tomorrow? It just feels that way today - overcast, cold, but muggy.
What are those thin arcs moving to the W NW and N? RGB Loop


It has not been this quiet in the the atlantic basin since el nino put a clamp on the 1997 season.Hopefully the 2007 season will not produce any landfalling tropical systems.
wthrobserver~ I've caught some good cut & pastes here, but that just isn't one of them. Other than the area needing to persist another 24 hrs the 2 statements have nothing else in common. 23 is saying possible invest where the other was invest this afternoon & depression or storm in 24hrs. As for direction, there is an obvious front & well 23 makes no mention of a TS or deprression slipping W of it. & the other goes on about the past day in the area that 23 mentions nothing of.

I noticed it's strong inverted V shape on quickscat. Though don't think it will become anything significant, beyond more rain for islands that have been dealing with too much lately, including a few landslides.

On the 12Z gfs is that not a STD forming at the end of the run between EC FL & Bermuda(a little closer to FL) at the tail end of the trough that has sweeps up Paul?
Sorry, should be "W NW and N". :[ fixing
Saddlegait here is the SPC outlook for Friday:



DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 AM CDT WED OCT 25 2006

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST...

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION
AS UPSTREAM SPEED MAX DIGS INTO THE MID MS/OH VALLEY LATE IN THE
PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT
DOWNSTREAM AS FOCUSED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...COINCIDENT WITH
NWD SURGE OF MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS SPREADS INLAND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES STRONGLY SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEEP MESOCYCLONES AS LLJ REFOCUSES ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE INTO GA. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS
WILL STRUGGLE TO SPREAD TOO FAR INLAND...AS CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION AND WEAK LAPSE RATES LIMIT SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION
TO WITHIN ROUGHLY 100 MI OF THE COAST. FOR THIS REASON IT APPEARS
GREATEST SUPERCELL THREAT WILL OCCUR ACROSS SRN AL AND THE FL
PANHANDLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD FORM WITH THE
STRONGER/ORGANIZED STORMS
Well, fortunately for me, I think it is projected to be a little further south than my house - I love a good thunderstorm - hate a bad thunderstorm or tornado.
Oh and thanks Bob.
Yeah Saddle, that tropical air is gonna have a hard time moving too far inland. It will also depend on the timing of the front. If it comes in during the afternoon you may be able to get a good destabilization of the airmass. Forecasted shear values have looked very good for Severe Storms along the Gulf Coast and into Florida with this front, but it takes other factors as well.
Here's another view of the cold-front that will sweep the TW approaching the islands out to sea.


What the heck is "good destabilization". That is a big oxymoron if you ask me. When is destabilization EVER good!? If a co-worker becomes destabilized, it normally involves the use of a gun, if a family member becomes destabilized they normally end up in jail, if a car becomes destabilized, it is normally upside down somewhere...so how can it ever be good?
Hey 03. We may have enough dynamics to actually get a good soaking this weekend in West Central and Central FL.
Hey, if you want some big storms its good!!..LOL
LOL Saddle!!!!
POP Quiz...boring day in the tropics...give me two minutes please...
I am sure there are lotsa people around here (lotsa is a yankee word I just learned and had a chance to use), who like to see good destabilization.
Yeah Nash its looking good, I am still alittle hesitant given the return flow of moisture not looking that good ahead of the front. Everything else is in place, but we need some juice!!
I hope it involves two things and contains the words "no friction" in the quiz!
Well, I am from Dallas so I am FAR from being a Yankee.
Please, Zap and Emmy have done enough Yankee bashing for oneday!!..LOL
Yes we need the juice. I don't think we will have enough to spark any serious boomers, but we should get some widespread showers out of this...
I am not bashing 03. Just pointing out that I am from the deep south.
LowerCal, I wanna say they are decribed as ribbon clouds...a sign dry air is affecting formation or destroying organisation.

Since the the Ozone hole thing the other day...What are the name of those beautiful clouds that appear when Ozone is being destroyed by Cl, Br & such? Dr Masters had a blog on them once & now the name has slipped my brain.
I am hoping for some up this way Nash, we are very dry!
Sorry, didn't mean to bash any innocent yankees (as if there are any innocent yankees)
Skye, just for the record, I did not say it was a cut and paste. I said if it wasn't a cut and paste it was a mighty strange coincidence. I agree that they're not identical but it is amazing they are so closely correlated. Let me break the similarities down. If you still feel differently, that is why we all have our own opinions.
Said by one:
If convection manages to persists for 24hours
Said by another:
if that convection can remain as organized as it is now for another 24 hours
Said by one:
there might be an invest tag put out on it
Said by another:
Wouldnt be surprised if its not given an invest number this afternoon
Said by one:
It will most probably track to the N
Said by another:
As for a possible track, it may well move NNW then N
Said by one:
it is unlikely it will miss the front and continue westward into the Caribbean
Said by another:
Slight chance it may miss the front and track west
There ain't no innocent yankee Saddle.
Paul is gonna cross into the gulf
wthrobserver get a life are you serious you got some serious issues bro.It does not take a brain scientist to look at visible and IR imagery and see that there is a cold-front approaching the tropical wave.I might also add this wave is under unfavorable conditions for any kind of tropical development and will most likely get ripped apart.Persistance is the key always and as i said earlier if thunderstrom activity persists there might be an invest tag put out for it.But its looking unlikely that will happen as this area remains very disorganized.
Thanks, Skyepony.

I don't recall the article but is the word you are looking for noctilucent?
Well then Hurricane23, It would be my guess then that you and WXMAN must have accessed the same information, drawn the same conclusions and worded them closely the same. We may need to see if there is some paranormal activity associated with weather forecasting or have to leave it as an unexplained coincidence.
Looks more stationary to me towards the tail end of the front, that sucker's not going to be able to pick up the wave, it's going to bypass it and head west good people. Head's up in PR in about 3 days. Adrian wannabie.
Hur23, I don't think wthrobsever is saying this is going to develop??
High shear remains over most of the basin making it very difficult for anything to form.Over all its been true blessing this season not having any significant tropical system affect the united states.
I know that weatherguy03 i was just trying to state some thoughts earlier before i got attacked.
Yeah my opinion, & no intent on a flame war, just perhaps a good discussion on what a proffesor at a major university might consider as plagerism. Which I don't think the Proffessor would have much to stand on here. In your comparision you remove many ideas that the other had mentioned & 23 does not. Overall the forecasts are totally different ~ the other much more aggressive with invest this afternoon & TD or storm in 24 hours if it persists. 23 has possible invest in 24hrs if it persists but never making it to a deppresion or a named storm. As for direction W slight chance & unlikely mean 2 totally different things when refuring to weather forecasting terminoligy.

By my mention of cut & paste, I was only hinting it is good fun to catch them.

Xavier update~ he's fading fast for now...down to 65kts & 976mbs. For a 1st storm of the S Hemisphere season, for a short while, that was impressive.

Skyepony,

Polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs), also known as nacreous clouds, are clouds in the winter polar stratosphere at altitudes of 15,00025,000 metres (50,00080,000 ft). They are implicated in the formation of ozone holes.

Noctilucent clouds, also known as polar mesospheric clouds are the highest clouds in the Earth's atmosphere, located in the mesosphere at altitudes of around 85 km.
Getting chippy on here I see.
Skyepony, This is from USM and gives an easy to understand guide to avoiding plagerism and most colleges views on the subject.
Footnotes, references, and citations are extremely important components of academic work. Quotations must always be footnoted or endnoted. A paraphrase of something, or even a heavy reliance on someone else, should be noted. Students should not be afraid that there is some negative connotation attached to a noted paragraph--the critical fact is how you utilize the information, argument, etc. In other words, your own argument and exposition are most critical. You should avoid any attempt to pretend that you do not draw heavily on the thinking, wisdom, and knowledge of others.
Those weren't it, I wikipediad them, interesting a few were found on mars with it's lack of magnetic feild & atmosphere though.

I found it in the WU ozone hole stuff. Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSCs) than usual. These clouds act as ozone destroying chemical factories.

Found some pics of some
Anyways, I think I've spent enough time on this subject, I enjoy your blog Skyepony
Ok, we get it already! Back to the weather...
Skyepony yea there seems to be nothing left out there... Very fast winds have decapitated the system. Xavier did look awsome on satellite imagery a few days ago.

Skyepony, the blog is The coldest clouds.
I am just happy there isn't anything to talk about in the Atlantic. Hope the World Series game happens though.

Florida Keys Fishing
I appreciate that & am glad that friendly debates can still happen here, just think if it was put down as a resource the prossesor would accuse 23 of twisting the resource's words as they look to be 2 different forecasts ~ 23's doesn't have any real hopes for this to develop or go west & the other is saying a possibillity of a named storm with a little hope for west casting. The structure of thought is timeline (very common in forecasting) with the other going farther back.

LowerCal~ Thanks for finding Jeff's blog, I couldn't find it using the blog search looking for Polar Stratospheric Clouds. Amazing something so beautiful, up to no good.

I need to go do stuff bbl.

Thanks for those links Skye. "WU ozone hole stuff" gave me my first look at those great resources in Education.
Awsome view of those clouds...
hello... would all read my birdofpray blog and let me know what you think?...sorry for posting here ,but I think it would be worthwhile
Skyepony, We at least have your last point that we can both agree on. A shame not all can agree on that one, especially on this board.
Physics Answer

Thanks to everyone that posted.....the answer is "A".......it will go the same way!! Lowercal answered first...thanks everyone...I love you guys!

good job...
Lowercal
Nash28
Saddlegait
cbbeacbbum

and Rand thanks for the joke!
Tropical Cyclone? Look at this.





WRF Model
Near the Islands? Anyone seeing that? The forcast is 120 hrs out, though.
Am I halucinating?
New Invest - 93E
Daylight Saving Time Expires This Weekend
Wednesday, October 25, 2006 - 06:00 AM

Bill Johnson
MML News Director
Sonora -- DON'T FORGET ... Daylight Saving Time for 2006 comes to an end this weekend.

Effective 2am Sunday, the majority of the United States reverts to Standard Time. So before you go to bed Saturday evening, turn your clocks BACK one hour. The bonus being an extra hour of sleep.

On August 8, 2005, President George W. Bush signed the Energy Policy Act of 2005. This Act changed the time change dates for Daylight Saving Time in the U.S. effective next year.

Beginning in 2007, DST will begin on the second Sunday of March (March 11) and end the first Sunday of November (November 4). The Secretary of Energy will report the impact of this change to Congress. Congress retains the right to revert the Daylight Saving Time back to the 2005 time schedule once the Department of Energy study is complete.
For the U.S. and its territories, Daylight Saving Time is NOT observed in Hawaii, American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and Arizona.

Many fire inspectors suggest the change from standard to daylight saving time and vice versa are the two best times of the year to check batteries in residential smoke alarms.

What do y'all think?
Reply on my blog please.
1900 it looks like something pottery would be very interested in.
Does pottery live on one of those islands?
Tobago
Ya, he might want to see it then. Should I post it on his blog?
Sure
What do you think of the potential storm?
Much rain expected for US.
141. SLU
A new low has formed along the wave near 12n, 48w. The Quikscat pass later tonight will reveal a couple more secrets about this system.

Upper level winds are too harsh for the Low to form.
Which one? The one that SLU is talking about or the one the WRF is hinting at?
144. SLU
nash CIMSS believes that the shear is only 5 - 10kts near and ahead of the low. That's almost as good as it gets. The air is quite unstable and the SST's are still high enough. The only inhibiting factor is climatology - which normally wins - but the shear is not too strong at all.



145. SLU
146. SLU
1900 i'm talking about the one in the CATL
Maybe you guys could squeeze a few more charts and photos on here....I don't think there's enough yet!

All the storms that have formed in that area from November to May.
Hey Rand!
I know! I'm trying my hardest to get as many pictures as possible on the blog! We need more!
: )
LOL.....have mercy on the dial-ups!
What do you think of the potential storm next week?
Guys i just came back from takeing some pics at the National Hurricane Center,iam going to be posting a few more in my page in a few minutes feel free to check it out.

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
I have no thoughts right now 1900. I generally wait till there's something to observe. If something starts brewing I'll probably be watching.
Hurricane23,

Is that you wearing a sweater in subtopical Miami?
Yea what you think of the pic?Here's another pic of me at the National Hurricane Center.


Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
Way to warm for a sweater In my opinion.

Current tep. were I am 57

Forecast low 39

I best be on my way out if I want to get a good grade.
LOL!Wishcasterboy
hurricane23 those are one megabyte images. As Randrewl said, "...have mercy on the dial-ups!"
ImageShack will remove them soon; the maximum transfer rate is 100 megabytes per hour; that is 100 people viewing or refreshing this page in that time (not that many when you consider how active this blog can get; I ams suprised that they have not been removed yet). This is one reason to use thumbnails, although in my blog I don't have problems with the bandwidth limit since it is not as frequently accessed as Dr. Masters' blogs.
1900 the WRF model has come up with some unusual solutions this year. See if any of the other models pick it up as the days pass.
Thanks STL. As is frequently said, "MichaelSTL, you know everything!"
Hey there,hows everyone doing tonight.little chilly this mourning 38 in zephyrhills FL.
I know why they are so big: They were not resized properly (the actual size is 2,304 x 1,728); an easy way to resize them is to open them in Paint or some other image editing program and reduce the size (in Paint, click on Image, Stretch/skew, then enter a percentage, such as 25% for the width and height). Here is the resized image, 48.7 KB:



Note that reducing the size by 25% (width and height) reduces the filesize by a factor of 16 times.
... and the image quality is just as good as the original at this size.
New invest 93E.



TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT WED OCT 25 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY-
DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL...LOCATED ABOUT 110 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOS MOCHIS MEXICO.

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
AFTERNOON. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES TO WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
If you want to post a really large image on the blog, it is better to resize it with an image editing program (save it with a different name if you want to keep the original) than it is to use width=xxx to resize. Here is another reason why resizing the image is better in some cases (even when the original image is not very large in terms of file size):

Resized with width=640


Resized in Paint:


Of course, the latter requires more work (the file size is also larger for some reason; this probably depends on what kind of image you are resizing).
168. 0741
..TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY
WITH A LARGE ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC TURNING EVIDENT IN THE LOW
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND APPARENT IN SFC OBSERVATIONS. A 1011 MB
LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N...HOWEVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS NOT EASILY IDENTIFIABLE IN SATELLITE IMAGES.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS S OF 16N. THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY BENEATH AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE WHICH LIKELY ALLOWED THIS FEATURE TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED.
169. 0741
their see a low 1011mb and their say it beneath a upper anticyclone WHICH LIKELY ALLOWED THIS FEATURE TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY
...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED.
I just resized the pics a bit...sorry about that guys.
The 18Z gfs is still picking up on potential development N of PR & E of FL at the end of the run. Comparing it to the 12Z run, looks rounder(more tropical) but also smaller. Hmm the times we've seen the gfs forecast something smaller & smaller til nothing was left this season.
hurricane23, using width=xxx DOES NOT change the file size - right-click on them; it will say 1,018,425 bytes; you have to do what I did in my post (it is only 49,961 bytes). In fact:



Right-click and select propoerties and tell me how big this picture is.
MichaelSTL i just made them into thumbnails.
The ones I posted were resized so that they are a lot smaller; I did not use width=xxx to change the size; that is why they are over 20 times smaller than the original that you posted.
ok thanks MichaelSTL.
Interesting Skyepony but it will probably just move out to sea.
Another thing about posting images: If you post the same image several times, it does not increase the download time because once your browser loads it once, it simply duplicates it for all the other images (for example, the , and buttons on the comments; if you have it set on Show All Comments, the same images will be used hundreds or even thousands of times, depending on the number of comments).
Again thanks for your help i appreciate it.i made them into thumbails so hopefully thats better.
Delta 2 just launched NASA's STEREO Sun-watching Satellites. These will give us our 1st 3-D look at the sun. Live coverage here. The launch was beautiful. I heard about it earlier, but forgot & was lucky enough to be outside...sorry no pics for this launch.
As a newbie,
I figured that I'd ask all ya'll as to any reason why there are few, if any cyclones in the Indian Ocean. Most hurricane/cyclone activity seems to be concentrated in the N. Pacific and Atlantic.

Jack
S/v Don Quijote
Fajardo, PR
Welcome Ztapedoc!

As for your question, you have to consider the southern Indian Ocean as well; in the 1997-1998 season, there were 37 tropical cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere, many of them in the southern Indian Ocean. As for the northern Indian Ocean, it is likely due to the weather patterns in the area. When major storms do form in the northern Indian Ocean, they are often very destructive.
Interesting....
Since I'm not much of a "down under" sailor, I don't concentrate on the "other half" of the world.... Maybe I'll venture that way in a couple of years...

Thanks for the info...
Jack

Also, just as El Nino affects activity in the Northern Hemisphere (decreased activity in the Atlantic and increased activity in the Pacific), it also affects the Southern Hemisphere (decreased activity around Australia and increased elsewhere). La Nina has the opposite effects in all of these areas. I am not so sure about the northern Indian Ocean though.
Good evening guys...just saw the Delta Rocket go over my house, Skye Pony did you see it up in Melbourne?
Posted By: Skyepony at 6:12 PM PDT on October 25, 2006.
Delta 2 just launched NASA's STEREO Sun-watching Satellites.


Cool! B-) Anybody needs some 3-D glasses just mail me, I have some extras, lol.
The mm5fsu has the new 93E invest becoming significant at 120h. However, since the MM5 is not a global model and the invest is close to it's boundary one could say the MM5 FSU is "on crack".
The GFS develops 93E, but keeps it relatively weak and takes it out to sea. It also develops another weak system near the end (of course, these could actually be hurricanes, since most models are not good at resloving tropical cyclones due to their small size, even the GFDL unless it is within the high resolution area).
Thanks Michael.
The WAGSOP model says we have a "Storm of the Century" in 3200 hours.. Remember - it is a new century so it won't take much. (wild a$$, seat of the pants model).
We already had the storm of the century.
The STEREO spacecraft are alive and talking to ground controllers following launch tonight. ~ from that link. Looks like 2 months til they are in place.

An artist's rendition of the view with LowerCal's 3-d glasses.

The gfs has 93E slightly stronger now than when we talked about this yesterday. I'll give it a little better odds than yesterday. That 2nd storm has been fairly consistant on the runs.

What you make of that MichaelSTL and HIGHEXPRESS in 3200 hours?
Would someone care to tell me. What needs to happen for arctic fronts to dive south and bring could weather to the south like we used to see.
Thanks Skye.

Those spacecraft should eliminate a lot of the uncertainty in how much any particular solar weather event will affect the earth ... in addition to supplying the cool 3D images. B)
Lost at least 2 in Paul...

However, the storm has caused at least two deaths, including that of a Renton, Wash., man vacationing in Baja.

Off the coast of Cabo San Lucas, officials were searching for the body of John Skoor who was swept away by a large rogue wave while he was walking along the beach with his wife and sister.

Gilberto Guzman, manager of the SolMar Hotel on the outskirts of the resort, said "an enormous wave" swept Skoor and his sister out to sea late Monday. The sister managed to get back to shore.

Just north of Los Cabos, a 23-year-old Mexican fisherman died Monday after he slipped off rocks being battered by the rough sea in the small resort town of Todos Santos, said Baja California Sur civil defense director Jose Gajon.

Streets were already flooded with ankle-deep water in Cabo San Lucas, where authorities closed schools and opened eight shelters Tuesday. Later police drove through neighborhoods, calling on people to take refuge.

City government spokesman Jorge Castaneda said at least 1,000 residents were being evacuated, most from shantytowns in areas at high risk for flooding.

In Cabo San Lucas, hotel guests played board games in lobbies or read in their rooms.

"It looks as though the storm is dissipating and we're not going to get much of anything at all," said Sandra Scandiber, owner of the small Los Milagros Hotel in Cabo San Lucas. Mexico's Pacific coast was struck by two hurricanes last month.
Good evening,

The atlantic basin is dead and paul has weakened to tropical depression status and will probably have very minimal affects on mexico as its almost non-existant on satellite imagery.

Click here to see a 24 frame loop of Paul making landfall in mexico.
... and 93E making its way west from Acapulco.


TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PDT WED OCT 25 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION PAUL...LOCATED ABOUT 95 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LOS MOCHIS
MEXICO.

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES WEST OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION THIS
EVENING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
Posted By: Skyepony at 9:31 PM PDT on October 25, 2006.
Lost at least 2 in Paul...


Sad.

Those who have never experienced it don't know the speed, power, and distance with which the water can suddenly run up the beach on a big day ... and even as little as half a foot of rapidly moving water can cause an adult to lose their footing.
Good morning everyone...Hi Nash if your out there...busy day for me...see you all later.
Good morning everyone.
Hey guys. Looking at the 00z models, they are hinting at some possible formation in the next week. Probably off the tail end of a front.
06z GFS is showing some development from the tail end of a front near the Bahamas as well as development in the northern GOM as well.
Well, apparently I am having a conversation with myself this morning.....

Anyone awake out there????
Just listening to you talk to yourself!
Morning Nash
Morning Rand.
I saw the Bahamas yesterday evening. The Gulf must have just showed up. Interesting.
im hiding and takin it all in. Ive been down here in Fla foe 8 weeks- printed out 2 many trackin maps I never used.lol. last one was Ernesto.lol. going back 2 Buff Tues..work on nor-easters then
I expected to be followinn all kinds of activity down here, due to seasonal prediction- who would have thought I would have missed the major storm in Buffalo, I have lived there all my life too. Everyone up there thought we were nuts commin down 2 house durin hurr. season. was wierd.
Well, sue...you picked a good time to be in Florida.
Thankfully. Dont get me wrong I am not some freak awaiting destruction, I just love weather and enjoy the learning experience, watched the pacific activity. You guys are all very intelligent in here and I enjoy reading all the entries.
Literally the gulf of Mexico is in my backyard.been researchin red tide and some marine life issues too. was hopin 2 see delta rocket last nite, but didnt. Weather rocket goin up nov.4 too, think from california, not sure. see ya goin to get my "feet wet",before I'm wearin boots next week.lol have a great day.
Hawaii back in the threat area. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/avn-l.jpg Have a wonderful day.