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World Series forecast and tropical update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:23 PM GMT on October 26, 2006

Tonight's World Series game in St. Louis between the Tigers and the Cardinals has about a 30% chance of being rained out. A slow-moving low pressure system over the Southern Plains is expected to track across Missouri over the next two days, bring the continued chance of rain to St. Louis through Friday night. The best chance of rain is from 2am Friday through 6pm Friday, when periods of heavy rain are expected. There will be some intermittent areas of light rain and short-lived heavier showers in the area tonight, but I think the rain will not be widespread enough to cause a cancellation of the game. A rain delay of an hour or two is certainly a possibility, though. Game time temperatures should be near 48 degrees, with a light 5 mph wind blowing in from the outfield towards home. Friday's game may suffer a rain delay as well, but will likely get played.

In the Atlantic, a concentrated area of thunderstorms about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is associated with a westward-moving tropical wave. The region is under 20 knots of wind shear, and the shear is expected to remain too high to allow development to occur. None of the models are forecasting any significant tropical development over the next six days, and the long-range GFS model forecast no longer calls for a tropical storm to develop in the western Caribbean late next week. In the eastern Pacific, Paul has come ashore in Mexico north of Mazatlan and has dissipated. No damage or flooding problems have been reported from the storm.


The biggest storm so far this hurricane season: the storm of controversy over what was on Kenny Rogers' hand during game two of the World Series! Image of Kenny Rogers courtesy of sportsillustrated.com

I'll be back Friday with a report on a major new hurricane funding initiative introduced to the Senate. With election day fast approaching, I encourage you to ask your Senators how they plan to vote on this important issue!

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

So, we may play ball tonight...sometime.
Love the photo.....thanks Doctor!
Nice to see tropical blogs are not the only places that thrive on controversy. I'm sure come June, every cloud formation in the Atlantic and Gulf will be scrutinized beyond all belief and someone will say, there's our next system and dozens will rally around and start the hurricane chant. It won't matter what wind shear is, SST's or SAL, by God NOGAPS predicts a storm and a storm it shall be. Same thing here, How much you want to bet old Kenny was holding a bat in the dugout. That's exactly where you could expect to see a pine tar stain at. Look at the whole set of pictures, Look at how white every ball is. He's not even using infield dirt to dirty them up. Look at how clean his fingers and the rest of his hand is. Ah, never mind, the controversy is a whole lot more fun than common sense. :-)
Great photo!! I was wondering how Kenny Rogers became Cy Young this postseason!!..LOL
so the stuff on his throwing hand...is that providing some extra condensation nuclei...? :)
oh wthr- you missed it this year. Someone says "there's a blob", then someone says "it's spinning"...then Rand says "it's going west I tell ya"...and then all heck breaks loose between those who say west and those who say no west.
Oh and then someone says "hey, how are ya" and someone responds "pretty good, how about the kids and I think I saw you with my brother last night"...someone else comes on and says "GET OFF THE BLOG, IT'S FOR TOPIC ONLY!" That always makes for a good day too.,
Yeah, it WAS a bit OUT OF CONTROL this season in here. People got booted and banned... then they kissed & made up, and then got bitchy and started it ALL over again... anytime there was a new INVEST.
Next year we need to keep some form of scoreboard on it.

[seeks advice from Magic 8 ball]
That's a good idea keys...A board or spreadsheet with everyone's name on it. Number of posts "on topic". Number of flirty posts...number of whiney posts...number of flaming posts...number of west/wishcasting posts...number of times banned and let back in...it could go on and on.
Sign me up right now for seven of those Westcasts Saddle!
I think I will put you down for thirty or so, you don't want to use up all your budget on one invest.
Would some form of wagering system be out of the question? [void where prohibited]
Don't forget the "PRESSURES ARE FALLING RAPIDLY" debates...following the same diurnal cycle as the pressure falls themselves.
Oh dobson I forgot about all of those. And then there is always the "how stupid can the NHC be to not see what I see" posters.
Why is it called the WORLD series when only US teams are playing against each other? That never made sense to me.
I'm still waiting for STORMTOP'S October surprise.
Well for some tropical activity look to the NW Pacific. Invest 96W has been upgraded to TD and is forecast by JMA to reach tropical storm strength tomorrow. Looks like it will threaten the Phillipines.

In addition 97W, directly over Luzon, is really flaring at the moment and looks like it could develop into something in the near future.
Not to worry Saddle, next year, I'll join the frey and wait till someone realizes that I'm in CA safe and sound and shouting LAND HO! Not that I wish any harm, it's just a fact of life. I can't cry when an earthquake eventually comes and turns my house and yard into a sea bed.
We will hope that doesn't happen, at least not until you get those pins out of your leg. It does get active and people get crazy. I think we all love the excitement of the prediction - until it gets here. Those involved in the actual landfall lose their excitement - others are still just amazed at the power. I think actually, we are all amazed, just some are unfortunate to be in the way of the destruction.
Is there gonna be anyone who does a Winter weather Blog like they do the tropical blog.

Please let me know the names of the ppl who does them so i can put them in my favorites list.

Thanks

Spicey
According to the Navy that is 18E (in the east Pacific) that is now the TD.


A pic of the W Pacific has 96W in the near middle & 97W in the upper left.
I still remember when Ernesto was coming up from Cuba toward the Keys, when SO MANY people were looking at the radar presentation and insisting it looked like it was going west West WEST up the Florida west coast. The radar was only picking up the northern half of the cyclone, and, well, the northern half of northern hemisphere cyclones spins toward the west, so of course it looked like it was going west...the buffoons at the NHC can't POSSIBLY know what they are doing!
Ya I was freaking out when the NHC had Ernesto
hitting tampa as a Major Hurricane. That would suck my parnets insurance (And mine but I live in a Milltary funded house)
Gotta type fast,,I saw the Docs post about the Senate Vote..Heres What was promised in 1965, after Betsy in SE La...and well ..ya saw what we had and how it failed in 05..so..well..youll see.The new Vote will complete what was promised..then.The LAdy whose laptop Im using ..should be credited too..LOL..C-yall soon..PAtLink
The list of Flood acts..Link
HA! I think everyone from Texas to OBX did a little freaking out at one point in time with Ernesto! Just glad it piddled out, the track it took could have done some major damage had it been the 2 or 3 that was predicted days before. Good Job Cuba, way to kill another one for us!
hi all

Been lurking mostly the past few days as there has been little to talk about weather wise in the Atl basin.

The first cold front of the season has dropped down into the NW Caribbean bringing cooler temps and fresh winds; a pleasant change from the oppressive summer heat although it is still warm here.

The front is a weak one just brushing our area but serves as a signal that we are heading into what for us is autumn ( if you can imagine autumn in the tropics LOL )
Gpood call KMAN< its begining to cool off nicely here too. Enjoy while it lasts, I say. Have a good one.........
Hi Pottery

I saw some showers come your way over the past few days. Kind of odd to see those waves coming in that low in lat.

I guess even those of us used to the tropics like a break from the heat !
Yeah, kman, and the wife enjoys being able to attack the mildew with positive results, from dec to may. For sure the weather has been a little unusual to say the least. Keeps it interesting though...
well lunch time now
going out to enjoy the breeze LOL
kmanislander check your mail!
Good afternoon everyone
Pat, pull up the boots and tie down the trailer gonna get rough after midnight.
Hi guys...can't stay on ..busy with auditors but just wanted to pop in for a minute...this is gatorx posing as a science genius...have a great day everyone.
ok this blog is slow
37. N3EG
I'll second that about the winter weather blog...we need a place to wishcast about all the Pacific storms and Noreasters. Where do we all go for the winter?
TD 18E is 30kts 1008mb, headed out to sea.


Xavier is 30kts 1000mb

For entertainment purposes only beyond 144hrs, the long term gfs.
Wayne Davidson had an update on the EH2R site, while I was out of town.

Second or thrird warmest in history....

NOAA makes it third: click here

NASA makes it 2nd: click here

Septemner Nothern Hemisphere results are in, exactly like predicted from Montreal. There were many intriguing features, Russia did warm up as expected from last Springs projection, however North America somewhat cooled a little bit. That is the surprise which knocked off September as being #1 warmest. A complete study for this slight surface air cooling is needed, but it is largely superficial, as some current diffrential refraction shots were found expanded way above normal. True enough to form, these expansions preceded a significant warming in the High Arctic with temperatures +12 C above normal. Despite pressure heights apparently more or less normal. Suggesting a strange Upper Air configuration. Overall its warmer, and there is no sign of significant cooling, so far to date, if this keeps up, it will be the warmest winter ever again.

WD Oct 15,2006
Skye, thanks for adding to the entertainment of an already entertaining blog. S to N over Panama and Honduras -- two "never before seen" events! I'm bookmarking that one for future entertainment.
cyclonebuster if I want to hear about the tunnels I will go to your blog. I don't want to hear about them on this blog.

The "Rising seas..." and "Global warming..." comments are the kind of comments I enjoy seeing on this blog. :)
It looks as if the wave to the E of the islands does have a low of interest with it although the chances of anything developing from it seem slim

Link
hi kmanislander.Looks like bad weather to my east in barbados
hi ryang

get your umbrella ready. Looks like rain starting tomorrow but probably not much else
and thunderstorms
tomorrow morning right
Hello y'all! It has been the strangest day in Houston today weather-wise. It is always sunny with scattered cumulonimbus clouds. Rain is on and off. Once the rain starts, it is very heavy. There is literally a wall of rain when it comes, only taking a second to be pouring. It will rain like that for 30-60 seconds when, just as suddenly as it came, the rain stops.
kmanislander come to my blog and discuss the wave with me
hi 1900
Hello
How is life on those tiny islands today?
1900 come to my blog
you mean in barbados
lol
ryang check your mail!
1900hurricane you have mail!
Still watching the wave to the east of the islands this afternoon but the NHC is not to enthusiastic on its developmnet.

5:30pm outlook from the NHC...

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
REMAINS MINIMAL. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
Here's a close-up pic of the wave approaching the islands.looks like some heavy rain heading towards the islands in the next day or two.



CLICK HERE FOR LOOP

Hello all. Some of the models, namely the FSU, and the CMC are showing some development over the next few days in the Western Carribbean.
nash, that is NOT good news.
nash28 you got mail!
Oh, I forgot to mention this lovely gem.....

Today at my hospital during a leadership change meeting I actually had people come up to me and say they lost money in a betting pool saying a major hurricane would hit Tampa Bay this year, and they are PISSED OFF that it did not come to fruition!!!!

I simply shook my head, looked them dead in the eye and said you should be thanking your lucky f'ing stars that we were spared AGAIN!!!!
Got it Adrian, thanks!

Gotta fire up the grill for some steaks, so I will be on and off.
My fruit trees are blooming perhaps this will bring the temps.

LOL! Blooming? All I have is a big mess in the yard (leaves that have fallen off, especially after the first freeze a few days ago)...
Thanks nash28 some interesting stuff will the models for sure...

MM5 @ 120hrs



Nogaps @ 144hrs

This blog is so quiet no one notices that theres a New TD in the W Pacific!
18E.NONAME is forecast to become Rosa this evening.



click for loop

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182006
2100 UTC THU OCT 26 2006
...

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
...

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.9N 105.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
...
Interesting article:

Satellites Pinpoint World's Thunderstorm Hotspots

A new global satellite survey of thunderstorm activity has helped meteorologists pinpoint exactly where Earths hotspots for intense thunderstorms are: the American Midwest, Argentina, and some semi-arid regions like the edges of the Sahara desert.

Not really surprising, considering what I have had over the last year.
Here's a close-up pic of the wave approaching the islands.looks like some heavy rain heading towards the islands in the next day or two

Yeah that front picked it up and headed it out to sea!..LOL See Adrian, if you posted your own thoughts for once you may have gotten it correct.
Posted By: nash28 at 2:56 PM PDT on October 26, 2006.

...I actually had people come up to me and say they lost money in a betting pool saying a major hurricane would hit Tampa Bay this year, and they are PISSED OFF that it did not come to fruition!!!! ...


pinellas_surgezone.pdf
Do they know what surge zones they live in?
Do they know what surge zone they work in?
weatherguy03 check your mail!
LOL, everybody knows that one.
Anybody here?
Who are you?
if you posted your own thoughts for once you may have gotten it correct.

Who can argue with that?
I'm Dani nice to meat you but I've gotta go.
Hey Randrewl
The blogs really slow Today.
Silence and loneliness go hand and hand.
Whats up Rand.
Yo, wishcaster, wazup........
Pottery!! Well I had horible English test today, It was on two books, "Snow Falling on Cedars" and "Fairwell to Manzanar". Vocab was easy but then the quetsions were insane!
Wait don't you live in the tropics?
Crab??
Who is that?
100. ryang
hi everyone
Who me???? yeah I live in T&T, and snow falling on cedars is goooood writing. Never heard of the other one......
102. ryang
pottery i heard you live in tobago.I live in barbados.We are neighbours
103. ryang
lol
104. ryang
lol
Fairwell to Manzanar is about the internment of Japanese U.S citizens during WWII.
ryang, rains are coming !!!! Lodge School in the sixtees, were you there?
No ryang, I'm in central Trinidad.............
108. ryang
strong wave by my doorstep
It's awful what those people had to go through. It was just like what the Nazi's did to the Jews, the only difference is they didn't kill them.
110. ryang
i am there now
and ryang, nice result in India today again......
Hey whats up fellas :) hi ryang!!
113. ryang
yes pottery.you support lara
114. ryang
hi chaser
115. ryang
chaser you see that srong wave on my doorstep in barbados.
Something more Wrong about the whole thing is that German and Italian immigrants were not interned. For heavens sake Hitler's nephew was able to come to America, make a fortune on a book that portrays Hitler in a negative way, and named his first freaking son Adolf!! He never spent a day behind bars.
So pretty boring today but whent out tonight and its 30 OUT!!!
118. ryang
west indies all the way
you have mail ryang
120. ryang
freezing
where are you stormchaser?
so guys whats happening tonight ?
The Japanese, many of them American born, were searched and prosecuted for having everyday things like a radio, weapons, and many many more. They were held from the begining of the war to it's end. After they got out many of them faced fierce opposition and racism.
Everbody's looking east KMAN, tonight...............
If you want to post a flipping book report you can do that on your personal blog.
That's enough of that unsavory subject, how was your day?
127. ryang
pottery mail back at you
Evening Pottery, ryang and all.
hey pottery

shear is low to the E

Could this be an October surprise ???

Link
130. ryang
kman east of my in barbados
Evening RAND< good to see you here. Take it easy.
132. ryang
Evening rand
You want a book report, I'll show you one if you want one. LOL
Richmond Va is going to be rained out tomorrow in my area.
135. ryang
LOL
ryang

exactly
I am not expecting anyhting given the time of yr but that circular appearance, low pressure and low shear factor COULD open a small door for something to get going
137. ryang
POTTERY YOU SAW MY MAIL
138. ryang
right kman.Good point
hi there Rand

I have been a lurker for a few days. Only 7 months to the start of the next season LMAO
I see you've gone political on your blog Rand.
141. ryang
Now outside is clear
Has anyone seen jp lately?
143. ryang
what does LMAO MEAN
Yeah Kman...counting them down now. Wait...is this season over?
laugh my @*$ off

get it ??
I to am to a connoisseur of politcal politcalness. LOL
I get it.
Rand

I think so
IF we get a strong front in the NW Caribbean in the next 14 days then perhaps one last gasp for this yr otherwise I think the fat lady is singing LOL
149. ryang
LOL
Rand

I knew you did LOL
I would definitely agree with that Kman. Hopefully we will skate right past that also.
Don't post it! I'm warning you I don't want to see it!
Yeah, what DOES LMAO mean?? I was afraid to ask.........
154. ryang
good one kman
LMAO: laugh my ass off!
156. ryang
thanks rand
I'm an LOL kind of guy.
YO pottery im in NYC but Dec 9 ill be in westpalm beach FL :")
this blog is just great
where else can a bunch of weather wannabes seperated by thousand of miles of ocean have a little fun
Then there's always: ROFLMAO!
I'll be back in a while, Peace out.

Mike
163. ryang
funny rand
Rand

I KNEW the fat lady was not far off LOL
165. ryang
you are right kman.NO where else
She's waddling a litter closer every day!
Im a : ) guy amd ocassinaly a LOL
I met all you people from all over the Caribbean this year. That's a priceless gift to me.
You know if I saw this in August I would start to worry

Link
170. ryang
lol
Hey I went on chasing tour in 03 in oklhoma city with my cousin and it was good stuff :0)
1-0......Detroit! Yeah!!
173. ryang
everyone rand
Rand

I share your sentiment. When I first posted here I did not know what to expect. Now, I consider everyone a friend ( unless they say ITS GOING WEST ) LOL
Hey ryang where are you in this good world? (You can email me the answer)
176. ryang
i am coming to miami tomorrow
Where are all the fair Ladies tonight????????
Hey....I resemble that remark Kman.
That little wave might blow up a little getting close to the islands. I wouldn't be surprised to see some flare there the closer it gets.
Hey my teams been gone along time ago hehehehe:)
Barbados is a wonderful place Ryang. I spent 3 yrs at the Cave Hill Campuss of UWI and travel there every 3 months on business.

I do the Miami thing too like every person in the Caribbean !
Miami ryang? Why would you want to go there?
Rand

With a front to the N does that mean high pressure settling in N of PR ?
If so, could it drive that wave, dare I say it , WEST once the front lifts out ??
183. ryang
storchaser i live in barbados
make that campus with one "s"
ouch
185. ryang
rand on vacation
I'm on the tail end of a tectonic plate thats going WEST, get out of my way kman...........We are coming through. Actualy, you and me are gonna end up in San Francisco in a couple of millenia...........
187. ryang
kman what did you study there
I don't know how far East that front will push or if the bottom end will hold together. This little wave may just end up Westward bound. I don't expect anything out of it.
pottery

hopefully in Napa valley LOL
COOl:) HEY i have a question for all of you if a tree falls in the forest and no people are around to hear it will it make a noise (EMAIL ME THE ANSWER)
191. ryang
kman you live in the cayman islands right
ryang

yes I do
I'm still here, can't go anywere!
Come over to my blog updated
196. ryang
kman did you e-mail chaser with the answer
wishcasterboy

are you stuck LOL
Bye gotta go C U tommorow
no but will do so now
200. ryang
teedy check my blog too
You don't want to check my blog.
202. ryang
kman he said i was right.The answer was yes
Pottery you may be right....


The Caribbean sea seems to disappear into a central basin after the merging of The America's.
204. ryang
rand you blog.i thought it was closed
ryang

That was also my answer but his e mail is set to "away"
Not anymore ryang.
come over to m blog
208. ryang
he had to go
Ya I'm trapped I have no car. The worst thing is, I can't eat!
This really sucks considering I had no breakfast or lunch!
211. ryang
oh kman soory.rand i will check your blog tommorow.see everyone tommorow.You can go to my blog now if you want.
That map looks strange... arn't the Americas and Africa moving apart? What makes them move back together (eventually, North America will ram into Asia and South America into Australia).
Somebody check my blog.
wishcaster

does not sound good. I am afraid to ask whats up
215. ryang
wcb where are you trap
That map looks like 250 million years in the past...
217. ryang
lol
They do pull apart to begin with,



but later the tectonic plates on the outskirks over power the interior ones.
STL< I'm not sure I want to be where that map puts me either. I'm cool right here for a while yet.
220. ryang
hi 1900.see everyone.1900 you to my blog if you want
I see that RAMSDIS has a camera focussed on the wave E of Barbados. Obviously Colorado State thinks its worth watching
Big storms in my area with lots of lightning. I should probably step away from the computer...
WISHcater.....what you lost yr car, yr teeth?? whats up man??????????
224. ryang
LOL
Oh Pottery, well all be long dead before this all happends. As for Australia colliding with the west coast I've heard of It but this is more plausible.
new image of the wave. Looking better every frame
Link
227. ryang
KMAN BAD FOR ME
Posted By: Wishcasterboy at 8:17 PM CDT on October 26, 2006.

Oh Pottery, well all be long dead before this all happends
a

Not me! I'm going to live forever!
: )
" plosible"......... good word
ryang

don't worry. there is not enough time or ocean between it and Barbados for it to be a real threat to you.
Tomorrow will be wet though
231. ryang
LOL
Gotta go. I really shouldn't be on now in the first place. Have a great rest of the day!
: )
233. ryang
KMAN THANKS.IT IS STARTING TO RAIN NOW
234. ryang
BYE
hello all 93L is up no photo yet

Link

navy site
Will somebody post the image for shear in the east carib for 24 hrs?????Thanks.
I spelled it wrong, Its plausible.
anyway guys I think I will turn in with a good book now. Those of you up N, do not forget to turn your clocks back this weekend LOL
That way you can be on the same time that I am !!

catch you all tomorrow
239. ryang
PEACE FRIEND
ryang

no problem mon
rain keeps paradise green !
I was just posting that Taz. How do you do that?
AH

93L is the wave E of the islands. I thought I was on to something
243. ryang
THANKS TAZ.POST THAT ON MY BLOG
First shot.




Yeh, you spotted that first Taz. Will they fly it ????
ryang

your caps lock is on
247. ryang
WHAT.INVEST NOW.NOW I AM A BIT MORE WORRIED
20kts....1009mb.
f(t)dt=

I can't solve this.
LOLolOLOloLOL!!!

NRL can't be serious; I mean, wind shear... El Nino... LOL!!!
Randrewl well you got to be fast
252. ryang
oh.not on more
253. ryang
kman i should be worried now
Michael

what shear, 5 to 10 knots ??

Link
It just doesn't look that oppressive.
I was waiting for a photo Taz!
257. ryang
preesure low
it could get in the Carribian
259. ryang
i am
Yeah and the best part....it's moving WEST!
ryang

I don't think so. Way too soon for that and way too close. If, and its a big if, it were to develop it would be by you before it became anything significant, assuming it doesn't stall for a while and there is nothing to suggest that at the moment
Rand

you had to say it didn't you LOL
263. ryang
kman if i see a wind shift tommorow if would have a surface curculation
Rand what are the chances of this wannabe becoming a named system?
How long will it be in the low shear though, and how long will shear stay low? About a dozen potential storms were destroyed this year when shear rose after a brief period of favorable conditions (if not, the early forecasts would have been correct).
Dinners ready! bye
267. ryang
lol
steering winds say W
Big high to the W once it passes a weakness to the N of the NE islandsLink
269. ryang
i think so
Something else to think about: How big/powerful were hurricanes back when most of the Earth was one huge, hot ocean?
Yes I did have to say it....I may not get another chance this season.
ryang

you will be the first to know the true extent of the organisation of the system. A wind shift is almost a given as even a wave with no closed low will produce that
Wind shear is mainly 5-10kts over this invest with a small amount of 20kts to the north. If convection increases, there isn't much left to become the next storm, and Caribbean shear (for the most part) is 5-10kts, with a couple of little patches of 20kts. It needs to be remembered that this was the case with the last invest, but it moved north, lost convection, and spun down after a few days - so right now development is probably 1 in 100, but it definitely needs to be watched in this area that is typically favorable for late-season development.
Wishcaster, the solution to the formula thats bothering you
f(t)dt = food (transport) daily trepidations. It was easy man........
Kman is right ryang....so pay attention and report back please.
Detroit over St. Louis....3 to 1 right now.
I can talk baseball tonight as it is a topic of the blog!
Here is the latest wind information available on the invest - high enough for depression in some spots, but I'm sure convection is holding back the forecasters (as well as models) on this one:

ryang

I suspect that by the time it gets to you the center will likely pass just N of B'dos near 14N
If the winds pull to the SW just before it reaches you and back to the SE after it passes then a closed low would be my conclusion
NHC:
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
REMAINS MINIMAL. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

KJ, your kidding right?..LOL Its a little blob of disorganized T-storms.
Barbados met. service says 90% chance of rain friday. Sounds about right, Looks like it will pass north of me though. TAZ< do you know if they will fly this invest, and when?????
michael

how often have we seen that forecast this season. I have seen that at 11 am only to be followed by a complete turn about at 5pm

I will admit that climatology says no development but what the heck,its the exception that makes the rule
They don't fly thunderstorms that I know of.
03 - Catch up before you put people down:

Wind shear is mainly 5-10kts over this invest with a small amount of 20kts to the north. If convection increases, there isn't much left to become the next storm, and Caribbean shear (for the most part) is 5-10kts, with a couple of little patches of 20kts. It needs to be remembered that this was the case with the last invest, but it moved north, lost convection, and spun down after a few days - so right now development is probably 1 in 100, but it definitely needs to be watched in this area that is typically favorable for late-season development.

And anything that is named an invest by the NHC is something that is meant to be watched. And STL - that was the outlook at 5:30pm, the 8pm discussion said:

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT.
A 1010 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N. THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM
HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOW FAIRLY
EASY TO LOCATE ON SATELLITE IMAGES
. DESPITE THE FAIR STRUCTURE
OF THIS SYSTEM...SHOWERS AND TSTMS REMAIN MINIMAL AND
DISORGANIZED FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 50W-56W...THEREFORE FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.


Still not calling for development, which is probably true, but I feel it's worth keeping an eye on.
The planes arent going anywhere. Negative POD. Right Rand..LOL
Uh KJ, go read my blog..LOL This is about the 20th Invest this year that will not develop. But its fun to watch.
Chance of development:



About 1 in 500 at the most... LOL Also, how many systems have developed in that area in late October?
That 's a Roger on the negatory POD weatherguy.....10-4!
Posted By: kylejourdan2006 at 7:44 PM MDT on October 26, 2006.
And anything that is named an invest by the NHC is something that is meant to be watched. And STL - that was the outlook at 5:30pm, the 6pm discussion said:

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT.
A 1010 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N. THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM
HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOW FAIRLY
EASY TO LOCATE ON SATELLITE IMAGES. DESPITE THE FAIR STRUCTURE
OF THIS SYSTEM...SHOWERS AND TSTMS REMAIN MINIMAL AND
DISORGANIZED FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 50W-56W...THEREFORE FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

Same thing as the outlook...
Right STL - And I said chances of development were 1 in 100 - and I also said that this invest developing is probably just as likely as the last invest - who got everyone all hyped up then fell apart after a northward jump...
KJ, we all love the weather. Just having some fun, dont take it so seriously..LOL
michael

here's one
Link
And I also told all my Carib friends about 20 mins before this popped up on the NRL that it wouldn't surprise me to see this hinky flare up a bit as it approached the islands.
and another

should I keep looking ??
Link
Rand, I thought an INVEST meant they were going to investigate. but as you say, looks like some seasonal rainclouds and not much more.....
Different shear map:

It's an investigative area. How far they want to investigate other than close scrutiny via satellite is their call.
OK rand , thanks
Listen, shear is gonna be a factor its almost November 1st. The GFS is forecasting the high shear to stay in about the same spots they are in now for the next week. So, if this system were to have a slight chance it will need to move directly west, survive the next few days and move into the Southern Caribbean. Very unlikely.
Rand

the RAMSDIS image really shows the curculation well but I do not think we can post it
By God weatherguy just said WEST! lol
Yes, I see that Kman.
weatherguy

isn't shear usually low when a cold front lifts out from the Caribbean ?. Thats when systems get going in the central and W Caribbean and there is a front about to lift out starting tomorrow. Also, in the last 28 yrs 3 of the 6 systems that formed in the E Caribbean were late season Oct systems
just want to add my sentiments....this has been, and hopefully will continue to be a fine experience for me. have enjoyed the blog and the banter alot. would like to meet some of you guys someday.
P.S. where's patrap???????
Great dinner, with all do respect, I don't think we need to be worried about this happening this year.



Pottery....Pat has been out of commission due to a personal health issue. He's fine and will return in the next few days.
The shear we see now just North of this system will remain in place for the next week and beyond. Really no changes according to the GFS. Sure if this moved WEST(lol) and got into the Southern Caribbean it has a shot. But for the next 48 hours W to NW shear is gonna bother it.
We will have to see what we have when it gets to the Islands and beyond that. Right now it doesnt concern me.
Ya never know could be something to watch.
Aaahh....West.
wishcasterboy

that is the hurricane that will forever live in the minds of Caymanians. It killed over 100 people on the island of Cayman Brac alone
I have posted about that storm earlier in the season
Hurricane Ten

A tropical storm formed on October 30 in the Atlantic Ocean east of the Virgin Islands. It was upgraded to hurricane strength on November 1 as it headed southwest into the Caribbean Sea. It was upgraded to Category 2 status on November 3 with winds of 100 mph. The storm strengthened into a major hurricane on November 5, and later peaked as an intense Category 4 hurricane on November 9 in the western Caribbean Sea. The storm later struck central Cuba shortly thereafter at its peak of 135 mph (one-minute sustained) on the same day, weakening to a Category 3 hurricane after crossing the island. The storm continued to slowly weaken as it moved through the Bahamas the following day, later weakening to a tropical storm and dissipating on November 13, becoming an extratropical storm shortly thereafter on the 14th over the central North Atlantic. The storm caused severe damage and an estimate of over 2,500 deaths in Cuba.[13]

Note: this storm was spawned out of an active hurricane season.
weatherguy

I agree to wait and see. No point getting wound up about it but all of a sudden something to talk about. As they say in the movies " who would have thunk it ? "
It probably has a better chance of developing in the East Pacific (where did TD 18E come from? - A: a wave from Africa that failed to develop in the Atlantic).
Yeah, at least its something!!..LOL
I'm always thinking it Kman....that darn weatherguy always tries to stop me!lol
wishcaster et al. What were the conditions that could cause a track like that? ( no. 10 of 32) also, that image looks like a snake skeleton to me.
How ya doing Rand.
Ha Ha!! Well Rand, I am heading to bed, so you can talk all about it now!! GO WEST. GO WEST!! See ya later!
Crab man...we've been waiting on you.
now we have a "blob" forming very near the center. Damn, just as I was planning to read a good book LOL

Link
Bout time you went to bed....West!
Uh O what did I do this time.lol
Crab...everytime we have an invest....you usually show up!
326. 0741
when is did their post the invest 93?
This storm was hard to find, considering it wasn't gaven a memorial name like, The Great Hurricane of Blahh Blahh. I find that strange considering it killed over 2,500 people. The 1932 Bahamas Hurricane in contrast, killed 16 people. Do I smell bias?
pottery

my guess would be a high N of PR and a front with SW winds in the gulf would cause the track seen with the 1932 hurricane
Link for Pottery! Link
Well, all interested parties in the north central gul region should be aware that a squall line is moveing from Texas eastward and the LA, MS. coastal regions can have a possibility of straight line winds and the possibility of isolated tornadoes. It is further discussed that 1-3" rainfall may occure with the approaching system. River stages in the region are under flood stage and river flooding should not be of concern. However all areas subject to flash flooding should monitor the system as it approaches. The system due to the jet stream should began to make more forward progress as it marches to the east.
Man....this hinky looks like a bowl of pasta with way too little sauce to me.




Rand, ya know my job description.lol
Agreed Rand!
Rand

that little white blob with the very cold cloud tops is your center though. If it expands we may have something
Yes sir Crab I do. You know mine also. So how is your personal weather right now?
Northern Gulf water temps are in the 60s and not conclusive to tropical development.
There was an innocuous wave that passed by here about 6 yrs ago, that resulted in the death of 30'000 to 60'000 people in coastal Venezuela just west of me and east of Caracas. It did not make the international news, because we were all too happy that day. It was Christmas morning>>>>>>>>>>>
It has a lot of expanding to do Kman....but you are correct.
339. 0741
when was invest93 issue?
0741...About an hour ago or more.
Overcast with east winds and small craft remain in port has been on and off light rain due to increase and get more intensive from midnight till mid morning.
well I am definitely going to turn in now and I WILL NOT get up in the middle of the night to check on this LMAO

see you all tomorrow
343. 0741
ok because i look at navy site early today their was no invest
That's what it looks like. I don't know if it will be so bad. But I haven't checked recently.
LOL Kman...gnight.
The second part of the Personal forcast is " Lack of interests have created a drought condition not condusive to the normal weather pattern that has historic of the address in which it is being sent." LOL
Pop up hurricanes, yes they do happen!

Hurricane Anita


A view of her eye.


The lovely ladies track.

Her history

The precursor to Hurricane Anita was a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on August 16. It moved westward without strengthening. When it entered the Caribbean, it began to move more northerly. The tropical wave, which extended from the Bahamas through Florida over western Cuba, was able to organize in the Gulf of Mexico with the help of divergence from an upper level low. An anticyclone developed over the area, aiding in the formation of a tropical depression on August 29 in the East Central Gulf of Mexico.

Located at around 230 statute miles (370 km) south-southwest of New Orleans, it initially appeared to threaten the Texas coastline, but a high pressure ridge building southward through Texas and Mexico forced it more southerly. The depression became Tropical Storm Anita on August 30, and a hurricane later that night. Intensification slowed somewhat, but the storm still reached Category 2 strength two days later. As it approached the coastline of Mexico, it passed over a warm eddy of water, likely 1C warmer than the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. Because of this and favorable conditions aloft, Anita rapidly strengthened to a 175 mph (280 km/h) Category 5 hurricane on September 2, and made landfall at this intensity in northeastern Mexico. Landfall was 145 miles (235 km) south of Brownsville, Texas and 80 miles (130 km) north of Tampico, Mexico. It rapidly weakened and dissipated over central Mexico.

My point? One of these beasts could hit your town with very little warning!

Mike


They have been tracking it for quite awhile:



1745z is 12:45 pm CDT.
LOL Crab!
One must maintain a sense of humour while dealing with disasters.lol
Now that I have spewed all the BS what is really going on?
Sandcrab,

Laughing on the outside, crying on the inside!
Wonderful Caster but I am asking what invest and were.lol
Why are most people on here from the south?
Whishcasterboy, I have never seen an ernest apologie to Mrs Gator yet from you you said I was sorry then made remarks that rebuttled the statement have you made retribution on that yet?
Crab....spew all you want.
We have a little thunderstorm off the islands moving in from the Central Atlantic...that's about it.
Because there is very little tropical weather in the north. Wake up guy. LOL
Thank you Pottery!
I have the memory of the elephant but not scared of mice.lol
I never forget either Crab....go for it man.
Sandcrab,

I appologized for to doing nothing wrong, I'd rather not discuss this with you.
One must appreciate all that that they meet and respect all that lives. In harmony we survive but without respect all is lost.
I know where Dr. Masters got the St. Louis hurricane idea from:

Massively destructive severe thunderstorm; over 2 million people lost power from it
Click for animation

PS: This is tropical - hurricanes are just overblown thunderstorms (although they don't produce hail).
Oh boy....I like that.
Crab....this is all there is to this one right now.




Yah yah, I'm very familiar with that.
Oh no....I don't like that.
You did something wrong and no its not forgiven. You did say you were sorry and then showed an attitude. I will not forget it and I will ask you to discuss it and I still would like you to make a sincere apologie to her. You were out of line an offensive and time will not heal the fact of what you said and how you tried to blow it off. You owe the lady a sincere apologie.
Different cultures, different generation, different personalities, different views, different issues, and different feelings, did I leave anything out?
Oh boy....I like that.
Different cultures? What are you a Chinese immigrant that can type fairly well in english?
Sandcrab, the boy doesn't owe you anything you dont run this blog. Now be a man and stop harassing him. Leave him alone.
Funny you should say that Rand, my great great grandmother was chinese.
He is harassing someone. Just report him Wishcaster if he keeps bothering you.
BOY and I use the term loosely you hurt someones feelings and I understand that it is an adolesent move but well men are men and most are gentleman and you will never have my respect untill you do the proper thing and say I am truly sorry I dont care if you are 12 or 20 respect is respect and YES you over stepped your mouth.
Be the bigger man Rand, back of and let it be. I'm serious I'm not trying to patronize you.
wishcaster, you're WRONG
Just trying to help you Wishcaster. They like to gang up on people sometimes. Some of them have be banned before and it can be done again.
I can't go and lie. If I said I was sorry that would not just be a lie to everyone on this blog, I'd be lieing to myself as well, that would bring be great shame.
Hey, I know the whole story everyone. Crab is right...the Boy owes.
Thanks Bill, these people don't scare me, they're just standing up for what they believe in, well some of them anyway.
What you don't understand boy....is that nobody cares what you say on this blog. You post seventh grade book reports.
The shame is still on you caster you did not really mean it. Bill report me ok you were not there when the statement was made but you shure can put your nose in at this time
No Crab I wont. This sort of stuff should be done in an e-mail, not on Dr. Masters blog. Remember respect. Well then respect the blog.
3.3 GPA would say otherwise my friend.
LMAO!
A place and time?? Is that a threat? Well a report will be made then. See ya Crab.
Geez....I like that one Crab.
I just want this to stop. This needs very badly to stop!
LOL Pat "Harley tool #57 (Big Hammer")
Brains r cheap...Experience everything...LOL...
Is that the real Patrap!
Sitting on a pillow..yes..LOL
How's your tired azz doing man?
Back in his trailer...comfy in a weird lil way..Wassup yous two?
Im fine..Thanx..lil sore..but fine..Vicodin takes the edge off.
Hooorah! Crab is in it Pat.
I'm out of here, let it build
Pat, well I am shure ya not full of it anymore.lol
That's terrible Crab.
A report..Wowza...sandcrab may need a Blog lawyer...I dont do the Lawyer thingee..suggest oreodog.
I think Crab can handle it hisself!
LOL..thats the 3rd in 25 mth..this sh$% is getting old...
Crab you are just some old man hiding behind a computer screen yelling at boys on a blog. Who are you kidding? Well, I will respect the blog and leave now. Hopefully you will be removed from here by morning.
Ya know a good way to freak out a VA policeman at the Hospital..go up on the Roof & start flying Paper Airplanes down 5 stories in front of their Cameras..they dont like that ..no sir..not at all..!
Sorry Pat but Gator is still due a real sorry for what was said and Geez I dont know Bill but I dont care to at this time either. Pat ya might get some bad weather tonight or early morning.
anyone have an anger management link? wow! lol
Hi sue...naw, we're having a friendly discussion.
welcome back patrap, you were sorely missed, (or is sorely a tender word). Check the eastern frontier and give us your prognostications.
Pat and Crab....you're killing me here!
Nice to be with the "old" gang again!
Da radar..now ..Link
Thats cool as long as everyone is OK...lol. well whats the dirt on the blob wanna-be? (oh and Sabres won) tee-hee
Score is tied....oh God....I need another brew!
Thanks pottery..The minds willing but the Bodys kinda dragging Behind ..a lil..LOL
I have been here all season and saw what happened. All I have seen is the same trouble makers on here tonite that have been banned before. So what it tells me is that the bans should of been permanent.
The severe Page..Link
Geez, just got back from 4 days of "Crisis Managent training".lol
..Looks like it was a good day to Get outta Dodge!..LOL
4 to 3...
hurricanebill....Nah...you don't really mean that. Hang out. Nobody is doing anything tonight that was not already started by the wishboy weeks ago just before he was banned!
keep on the good foot guys, I'm in bed zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
high rez look of the Pacific thingee..from Margies blog..I kidnapped it..LOLLink
Pat, did you find the DVD from the University of Alabama informative?
Wel.Teresa said Ive been on long enough to say Hello..so Looks like im heading to the rack...Se yall tommorrow...Butt willing..
Nite Pat sleep on your tummy.lol
I found it ALL informative..sandcrab..havent watched that one all the way thru yet.But will tommorrow.
We have an invest and there are no spaghetti's yet.
LOL...advice well Heeded..Gnight yall.
Randrewl you got mail....
Gnite Pat.
Well again I find myself trying to defend those that have been truly offended and accused of being the problem. However I will not change I will always support the offended side because I care. Rand still thinking about a 20 sq. ft. sleeping area.lol
No problem Crab. There's always room.
Ok folks to all a good nite.
Gnite Crab.
Rand how do you get the band notice.lol
93L looks interesting tonight and with light shear ahead of it lets see what tommorow brings.


could 93L be a threat to the US?
MAILCALL FOR CRAB AND RANDREWL
Whoops....what is that?




Is that Barbados on the left?
453. 0741
look at area on west tip of cuba!!!!!!!!
And what is that?




Well, I'm glad I don't live in Barbados, Cancun, or Cozumel otherwise I couldn't go to sleep now.

Good night all.
This is what I think of that blowup of thunerstorms Link
I'm going to sleep, despite the 1932 graphic . . .
I can't believe everyone's going to bed. It's like you get to the most interesting part of a move and "TO BE CONTINUED" flashes across the screen. Thank God for you Randrewl, I know if those blobs get to me (addicted) and i get out of bed to check things out, I can trust you'll be there to chase the "bloggyman" away.Good Nite!
...interesting

Is there a slight (very slight) clockwise rotation to that blob NE of cuba?
This is ludicrous I should go to bed. Oh protect me gracious Randy!
Stormy3,

I fear your wishcasting.
Arn't you afraid your teddybear is getting cold?
What am I doing? (slap my silly self) good moring Friday


Freyja, the god Friday was named after.
Don't you think he can be thawed out?


Teddy no!!!!!!
was that an insult aimed at me Wishcasterboy!
Posted By: stormy3 at 7:12 AM GMT on October 27, 2006.

Arn't you afraid your teddybear is getting cold?


That was what I was refering to, peace.

Mike
93l is looking tight this am will it be a td today ?
93L looks good, but of even greater concern is a possible damaging wind event over southern New England both Staurday and Sunday with gusts into the possible 60's. High Wind Watch.
And what is that?

that moisture in the Caribbean will move over Florida Saturday, in time for a front, its gonna get wet!
Good Morning everyone.
Morning all. Did we have an invest last night, or am I just tired?
Nash..is anything happening in the tropics?
the fat lady has larengitise
Amigo bueno de isla de moring
Statement as of 5:30 am EDT on October 27, 2006


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a westward-moving
tropical wave located about 300 miles east of the Windward Islands
is poorly organized. Significant development of this system is not
anticipated.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Saturday.
$$
Forecaster Franklin

good morning all

93L definitely seems bound for the Caribbean. I wonder whether this will be another system to go " poof " as it is just within the islands or maybe this is the one to defy the odds for the 06 season ?.
There have been so many that have fired up like this but could not keep it together.Will make for interesting watching over the next 24 to 36 hrs
480. HCW
Nasty tornado outbreak on the gulfcoast right now . Live level 3 radar up with watches and warnings and pretty soon that little car icon you see will be me trying to intercept a twister


Link
steering winds at all levels say West

Link
Posted By: Randrewl at 6:46 AM GMT on October 27, 2006.

And what is that?




There was a GFS run I looked at a week ago that had something develop in the area between Cuba and the YP.
my question is will it turn north and go to puerto rico
mrpuertorico

I do not think so with the steering winds as they are now. See my recent post with the winds linked. This one looks like straight W for quite a while and maybe even SW once it enters the Caribbean. Just my opinion
Maybe the model runs will be out when Dr M makes his morning update
gotta go now but will check in periodically today
Ok, I was just gonna say the GFDL has not run anything on 93L.
hello and good morning to everyone...I see that we have 93L to watch and also a severe weather event in florida this afternoon and overnight....Possible toranadoes and high wind event forecasted here where I am....
OK I will just answer my own questions today....Gator is it going to rain on the Treasure Coast today?....No Gator, I don't think so, I believe most of the bad weather will be further North and possibly on the West Coast...but there could still be one more tropical blip before the season is over.

Thank you Gator.
Quickscatt of 93L.

It wasn't fully updated yet! Nothing really to see there!
LOL Gator!

I did that yesterday morning for about 20 minutes until someone posted on here:-)
Nothing at all Pulse. Hey, when the NHC isn't running models on an Invest it isn't going to develop.
Typical strong tropical wave. Will be one to watch if it gets into the Southern Caribbean, but shear will be a constant factor just to its North.
Morning Bob! What would make this one any different! Shear rules!
Morning all,

Weather here in Nassau is fantastic. The sun is out, but air temperatures are pretty cool for this time of year (someone yesterday said to me they think it feels like Christmas!) and we have a constant light breeze. I note the high pressure in place that is keeping things lovely. I am assuming that's what's creating the shear to the north of 93L?

Well, I'm going out to enjoy the sunshine while it lasts. Looking at forecasts, it seems quite likely it will last much longer . . .