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Wlima intensifying rapidly

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 10:19 PM GMT on October 18, 2005

Wilma's rapid intensification phase continues, with another 9 mb drop in the past 1 1/2 hours, for a total of 16 mb in the past three hours. The 7:09 EDT hurricane hunter report found a pressure of 954 mb, and maximum flight level winds at 5000 feet of 101 knots (116 mph). Wilma is a solid Category 2 hurricane, and probably on her way to Category 3 status by early Wednesday morning. The Hurricane Hunters don't fly in Category 2 and stronger hurricanes at 5000 feet altitude very often; I wonder if the next eye penetration will be done at 10,000 feet.

Wilma has claimed her first victims; up to ten are dead on Haiti in landslides triggered by the hurricane's heavy rains. Mudslides and flooding are also serious problems in the southeastern Cuban provinces of Guantnamo, Santiago de Cuba and Granma. Nearly 13 inches (33 cm) of rain was measured at Santiago de Cuba since Wilma's rains began. The Cuban newspaper Granma is reporting 255 homes damaged or destroyed in that town, and sections of the Sevilla-Guam-Santiago de Cuba highway impassable due to swollen rivers, while landslides have blocked the Cordovelo-Loma Blanca road. In Jamaica, widespread flooding has cut off several communities and caused millions in damage to roads. All schools are closed on the island through Thursday and hospitals are taking only emergency patients. Rainfall rates as high as two inches per hour have been observed in the Blue Mountains of south-central Jamaica this afternoon.

Wilma's eye diameter is now a very tiny 8 nm (9 miles), up one mile since last report, but still very small for a hurricane. It will be interesting to see how long Wilma can maintain an eye that small; I expect the eyewall will collapse by morning and an eyewall replacement cycle will begin, with Wilma leveling out at Category 3 strength. The eye is now very prominent on satellite imagery, and spiral banding and upper-level outflow continue to improve and cover a larger area.

The remainer of my 5pm discussion appears below, unchanged.

Wilma became a hurricane today, tying the record of 12 hurricanes in a season set in 1969. In that year, the last two hurricanes formed after October 30, so 2005 has a decent chance of breaking that record. I expect 2005 will also break the record of 21 total storms, which it now shares with the 1933 hurricane season.

The upper level environment looks excellent but not perfect for intensification, with low wind shear and two good outflow channels, one on the north side, and one on the southwest side. About five knots of wind shear is degrading the outflow pattern and symmetry on the northwest side, and there is still some dry air there for Wilma to contend with. Continued intensification into a Category 3 hurricane by Wednesday looks reasonable, and I'd give it a 40% chance Wilma makes it to Category 4 status by Friday. The GFDL is calling for a 922 mb Category 4 storm by Friday, but this forecast is probably overdone, as the GFDL has been consistently too aggressive with its intensity forecasts for Wilma. By Saturday, Wilma will be far enough north that wind shear from an upper-level trough of low pressure will reduce Wilma's winds by perhaps 20 mph.

Wilma is currently traversing an area of high oceanic heat content (see Figure 1), and this heat content will not significantly fall unless Wilma passes north of the Florida Keys. I would expect an additional 10 mph reduction in Wilma's winds if she makes landfall in Florida north of the Keys, due to the lower heat content of the water. So, expect landfall as a strong Category 2 hurricane if Wilma moves through the Keys, or as a weak Category 2 hurricane further north. Remember that hurricane intensity forecasts are poor, especially 3 - 5 days out, so Wilma's intensity could easily be a full Category higher or lower than this.


Figure 1. Total heat content of the ocean is high over the northwest Caribbean and the southern Gulf of Mexico south of 25 N latitude. Images credit: NOAA/AOML.

Jamaica continues to take a pounding from Wilma, but this should end tomorrow night as Wilma pulls away. The next area of concern is northern Honduras and Nicaragua, where rains of up to 12 inches are expected. However, the portions of these countries that will receive the heaviest rains are relatively flat, so I do not expect massive loss of life from flooding in the mountains.

Next on Wilma's list will be the Cayman Islands, but flooding is generally not life-threatening in that nation. Mexico and Cuba may escape serious damage if Wilma passes through the Yucatan Channel as forecast.


Figures 1. Computer model forecasts for Wilma.

Wilma started moving WNW at 8 mph today, as all the computer models predicted she would. The models are pretty unified, bringing Wilma through the Yucatan Channel or across the western tip of Cuba, and then northeastward into the Florida Keys or the west coast of Florida by the weekend. Two models (the UKMET and GFS) predict that Wilma will pass just south of the Keys. The furthest north model is the Canadian, which picks Sarasota for its landfall. The GFDL, NOGAPS, and the official NHC forecast are in the middle, with a landfall over the Everglades of Southwest Florida. The NOAA jet is scheduled to makes its first flight tonight, and tomorrow morning we should have a better idea of which part of Florida is at most risk. Climatology favors a more southern track, and I expect that we'll see the models converge on a more southerly track through the Keys in the runs we see Wednesday morning.

Elsewhere in the tropics, there is a large area of disturbed weather midway between Africa and the Leeward Islands. Upper level winds are not favorable for development of this area, which is also too close to the Equator. I'll be back with a update in the morning.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update Dr Masters!
Scary
2005 hurricane season continues to break all the old records. Amazing!
Wow. Wilma is beginning to remind me a lot of Rita. 7 mb in just a little over an hour...

I think Wilma is containig her anger towards Fred. Sooner or later, she's going to explode.

Just so everyone knows, Fred will be used in 2009 as a replacement for Fabian.
Bouy 42057 Link The waves are nearly 18ft!
Can anyone tell me if Central Florida will be affected and how bad if so?
here's a colorful vater vapor loop that starts at 00:00Z last night Link
It looks like from the 11am report to the 5pm report that the track has shifted further south, is that true?
CaneJunky, no one can tell you for certain. At this point anywhere on the FL peninsula is fair game for hurricane force winds. models though right now are zoning in on a landfall somewhere from Ft. Myers to points south.
cane, yes that's true but not by much. we'll likely see the forecast track go back north, then back south, then back north. so just stay aware and prepare.
CaneJunky~ here's UCF's damage estimates (scroll down), this will change some as the models move. We are a little far out to know for sure at the moment. Also under this map is an interactive bar. hit that, you can zoom & recenter, add countys, roads, etc. Also you can run it for estimated power outages & infastructure damage. Link
Hello CaneJunky,

Well, if Wilma follows the GFDL or NOGAPS track, Central FL will be affected (in some fashion) :-)
Canejunky, you are interpreting the models correctly. They have shifted slightly to the south since yesterdays runs.
Thank You very much. Trust me, I will keep my eye on this blog. It has the best info I have seen. Thanks again MIAWX
And Thank You All
skyepony, wow that is some good information on that link you provided. what is the homepage for that link? thank you!
Here we go again..... this drill is getting old here in Key West. Nobody is going to evacuate this time because they don't have the time or the money with Fantasy Fest coming next week....between gas prices, hotel rooms, and lost wages, these stupid things are expensive to run from. If Wilma were to actually be the one to really clober us this season, she would have plenty of victims. We are getting really good at doing the Hurricane dance ......the shutters will go up in record time.

That's all from Key West......time to go visit the Grotto once again.
Thanks SKY, It is good info.
Skyepony

I saw you post that earlier but I didn't understand about the county overlays. That's a cool link I am currently at code yellow bordering on pink in NNW Lee county FLA.
MIAWX~ Link Here ya go. Have fun~ you can see there befor & finals from Katrina, oil damage & alot more. It's care of Univ. of central fl.
Hey keeywester,
I'll say a rosary for you guys, too.
Way Too Early To Be Accurate But FYI
Skeetobite Landfall & Trajectory Thru So. FL
Thanks Socialweathernut!
Sky, Where are you located?
25. dcw
Wow, 40-some millibars in a day and a half!

I'd say Cat3 is almost certain now, even if she doesn't deepen at all the pressure is low enough to support 120mph winds.

It's intresting that here in central FL, the air is totally still despite laying between a Hurricane and a strong high.
better go visit that grotto Key Westers
nice link FlCrackerGirl.
once your on the map, scoll down , right under it is an interactive bar. hit that. to the right you can zoom (select from bar that says recenter) then on upper right hit redraw map. once zoomed (3X's seems best) recenter by reselecting recenter, put curser on area of your house & click. To over lay county borders, estimated power falure & many, many more, scroll down~ select what you want , scroll down more & hit redraw map.
FLCrackerGirl


Way Too Early To Be Accurate But FYI
Skeetobite Landfall & Trajectory Thru So. FL


That would certainly be good for a lot of populated places and me. Everglades City would take it hard. Naples, Marco would get pounded too.
Melbourne
how about you canejunky?
once your on the map, scoll down , right under it is an interactive bar. hit that. to the right you can zoom (select from bar that says recenter) then on upper right hit redraw map. once zoomed (3X's seems best) recenter by reselecting recenter, put curser on area of your house & click. To over lay county borders, estimated power falure & many, many more, scroll down~ select what you want , scroll down more & hit redraw map.

Yeah, what I was saying was I found it after your last post about it, and it's REALLY COOL! Thanks a bunch for that. :)
I am in Oviedo, just NE of Orlando
I'm not a real religous guy, but the Grotto is very easy to visit. I was actually in Rome, Italy this past weekend and I climbed to the top of the Cupola at St. Peters in the Vatican, strictly as a tourist......I thought about the blob of clouds in the Carribean which CNN was showing as the next possible threat at that time.....I guess it never hurts to say a prayer.
CaneJunky

Bet you had fun last year?
It really sucked, BAD!!! I had about 35k in damage, but it is nothiing like New Orleans or Texas.
And It was nothing like the folks in Punta Gorda either. Where are you at DOG?
Predicted windspeed at landfall.......anyone?
thanks a lot skyponey!!!!
hey keywester, i'm up in marathon,good to read that
someone in the keys is in this blog, I think some of them
need to come down here and enjoy a hurricane party!
this is cool well & scary~ the maximium hurricane intensity potential ~ the 1st 2 maps as you scroll down is our area of intrest. Link

Canejunky, yes I did ~ Fun, a new roof, fences & truck! Thanks storms & allstate, things were gettin run down anyway:) Gotta say Oviedo gets alot of the worst of the seabreeze storms.

Gotta go be back later
And It was nothing like the folks in Punta Gorda either. Where are you at DOG?

officially our city hall is, I think 25 miles south of Punta Gorda. But, I, myself live on the road to Punta gorda, so I would say 15 miles. Right off of Pine Island in NW Cape Coral, and we have a house on N. Captiva that got a new channel and is two islands now a la Charlie. But, the lack of Storm Surge saved that house, and the eye was so little. We built that house in 1980, and it got about $2000 in damage. Most of the places out there are at least a million and some up to four million and we have this little house out there. We were very lucky. If it hit Cape Coral, I would be still trying to get my house rebuilt. My clients in Punta Gorda didn't have it so good.
Skypony, really good link on the max intensity potential. Haven't seen that site before.
Hi Vacakey, It is good to see another keys person in here! The hurricane parties should be good this weekend.
Take care and good luck.
Anyone elucidate on Dr. Masters' comment about the eye being the smallest (7nm) he has ever seen? What is the significance of this, i. e. correlation to vulnerability to shear, intensification cycles?
Dog, I am glad to hear you did ok with Charlie. I just hope you far as well with Wilma.
Look at the latest sat pic. The eye is completly in the middle of the gray surrounded by the deep reds. This developing quickly and it's looking very ugly.
Dog, I am glad to hear you did ok with Charlie. I just hope you far as well with Wilma.

This time I will leave. I won't be fighting with my wife in our driveway about evacuatingn like during Charley. Her parebts showed up with their hurricane kit which consisted of a four pack of water and a box of crackers. Plus, we have two dogs and three cats, so I am really stressed about where we'll go. I am just beside myself right now.
There are several shelters that will let you have pets, just gotta look. A 4 pack of water and crackers? I can tell they have never been in a real storm before.
and they live on a canal which is direct access to the Caloosahatchee river, which is direct access to the Gulf. About 8 feet above sea level, and they were gonna stay there.
You have to preregister to take your pets to the approved shelters.
Hello everyone. Tried to get on here about an hour ago and the site went down could not get on any longer. Does that happen to anyone else.
Haven't had a chance to get on here in last 24 hrs. And I am sure I missed a lot. FL Cracker That was agreat link.
At least it shows going a little north of my house! But I really don't want my family in PBC to have to go thru this again since they got it twice last year.
In the past 3 days that 5 day out cone has moved around so much. Yesterday afternoon it did not even touch Florida except for the NW Panhandle; then last night and today it started edging east again! I will try to do some lurking. The weather reports on TV don't seem to be doing much coverage; guess they don't want to get the general public started.
Please keep me updated. I would love to see that path move elsewhere; I'm prepared and never in panic, but I just know how much work it takes to go thru the drill and I'm tired!
hurigo,
small eye (under 11nm) means rapid intensification. as the eye shrinks, the storms revs up. Analogy: An Ice Skater pulls her arms towards her body, & spins faster.

The Next Milestone will be concentric eyewall for an eyewal replacement cycle.
anyone seen this

000
URNT12 KNHC 182328
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/23:09:50Z
B. 16 deg 36 min N
081 deg 41 min W
C. 850 mb 1037 m
D. 45 kt
E. 178 deg 049 nm
F. 257 deg 080 kt
G. 167 deg 007 nm
H. 954 mb
I. 18 C/ 1518 m
J. 22 C/ 1524 m
K. 20 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C8
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0524A WILMA OB 21
MAX FL WIND 82 KT NE QUAD 21:39:30 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 101 KT N QUAD 23:12:10
VERY TIGHT WIND CENTER
Predicted windspeed at landfall.......anyone?
I live far enough inland and I still sent my family to stay in NC, and I had to stay, i'm in LAw Enforcement so I could not go. But i'll tell ya what, If this thing looks like it will effect us up here, I am gonna take time off and leave.
latest vortex message indicates central pressure has fallen to 954mb.

Maximum Flight level winds are at 101kt in the Northern Quadrant. These winds support maximum sustained winds of 90kt, or 105mph intensity, which is a catagory 2 hurricane.

The pressure of course would support a catagory 3 hurricane, but winds have been behind the pressure of this storm the whole time.

954mb, Closed Eye & Tight...Impressive
Hey VacaKey & Keeywester, I am down here too in Cudjoe Key...doesn't look good AT THIS POINT for any of us three!
9 mb drop in 87 minutes - nearly 1 mb every 10 minutes.

NEW

000
URNT12 KNHC 182328
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/23:09:50Z
B. 16 deg 36 min N
081 deg 41 min W
C. 850 mb 1037 m
D. 45 kt
E. 178 deg 049 nm
F. 257 deg 080 kt
G. 167 deg 007 nm
H. 954 mb
I. 18 C/ 1518 m
J. 22 C/ 1524 m
K. 20 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C8
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0524A WILMA OB 21
MAX FL WIND 82 KT NE QUAD 21:39:30 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 101 KT N QUAD 23:12:10
VERY TIGHT WIND CENTER



OLD

URNT12 KNHC 182158
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/21:42:20Z
B. 16 deg 36 min N
081 deg 32 min W
C. 850 mb 1112 m
D. 55 kt
E. 34 deg 051 nm
F. 111 deg 082 kt
G. 024 deg 009 nm
H. 963 mb
I. 17 C/ 1524 m
J. 20 C/ 1526 m
K. 20 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C7
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0524A WILMA OB 13
MAX FL WIND 82 KT NE QUAD 21:39:30 Z
Same to you keeywester:> hopefully Wilma doesn't mess
up the parade next weekend.
does it look like the tracks are shifting more westerly ?
Now a category two officially.
REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...16.7 N... 81.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 954 MB.
I bet it is almost cat 3 if not already.
My seat-of-the-pants guess: even if she spools up to Cat. 6 in the Yucatan Channel (unlikely, I think) she would not be able to carry more than marginal Cat. 3 intensity to SW FL. If she goes much farther north we are looking at a Cat.1 or TS landfall, due to shear and lack of deep warm water.
954mb that would a cat 2 or a cat 3 with wind at 100 mph or at 125mph right any one
How far south, in SWFLA?
I agree Hecker, but I went through Katrina in south florida, and I wouldn't want to see 2 scales higher! "marginal cat3" is major!
Hmmm, better pen up the Gloucester sword boats. I may be a total hack at this, but it does look like the NOGAPS has Wilma merging with a Northeastern low just off the New England coast. See,Link
Isn't that what happened with the 91 "perfect storm?" Almost exact same time of year too. Spookey
mishnook, there was also a third system in '91 and the whole combined system backed up into the NE coast. PS I was just in Glouster on vacation a few weeks ago.
Predicted windspeed at landfall.......anyone?
hey all. i'm sitting on the coast in bonita springs, fl.. between ft. myers and naples. looks like, at this time, we are dead on to get hit... although that is probable to change. never the less, preparations have commenced. i've got 5 gal of gas for a generator, a full tank in my truck, candles, batteries, rope, chainsaw and gas, food and of course.. some beer. :) i'll go if/when i need to go.. otherwise.. i'll be right here. i rode out charley fine and will here again too if neccessary.. although i'm no fool. i'll go if i need to go. my condi is on the east side of a new ("hurricane proof") building and windows all face east.

watching, waiting and keeping in touch for now.
I agree with MIAWX, Katrina was barely CAT 1 when it came through FT LAUD; neighbors had no power for 4 days...city was littered with trees for over a month...

I suspect full panic mode in South FL tomorrow...no bread at Publix, plywood sales at Home Depot.


Stay classy,FURLEY OUT!
hey all you people in the keys... i live in big coppit and have just been informed that goombay has been canceled. just got done boarding up one of my places and will finish all my prep by thursday nite and and head north for the weekend. with 2 dogs and 5 parrots and a wife on crutches i don't think i'll ride this one out. it sure has been one hell of a year this year...worst i've seen in 26 yrs living in the keys...best of luck to all in the path!!!
plenty of water at Publix this evening. Had no power or phone service for days after katrina.
caneman Wilma seems to be on her way to cat 5 - I'd say landfall will be cat 3 in southern florida - what happens when Wilma makes a right turn - does that surge that is built up on her right side get even MORE bunched up? It seems like it would - could this be a catostrophy in the making for the keys? Could we see a 40 ft storm surge there with projected path? The keys would be at the worst location. Thoughts?
Posted By: ricstevenson at 11:56 PM GMT on October 18, 2005.
hey all. i'm sitting on the coast in bonita springs, fl.. between ft. myers and naples. looks like, at this time, we are dead on to get hit... although that is probable to change. never the less, preparations have commenced. i've got 5 gal of gas for a generator, a full tank in my truck, candles, batteries, rope, chainsaw and gas, food and of course.. some beer. :) i'll go if/when i need to go.. otherwise.. i'll be right here. i rode out charley fine and will here again too if neccessary.. although i'm no fool. i'll go if i need to go. my condi is on the east side of a new ("hurricane proof") building and windows all face east.

watching, waiting and keeping in touch for now.





Good luck Ric. Just north of ya. Hopefully this thing will head south!
charley was devastating to say the least... (and i was more than 10-20 off the eyewall). i watched 100+ mph winds keep trees bent to the ground... or uprooted and broken, for three solid hours. (charley was small compared to all these other hurricanes). i respect the power of these storms.. even more so after that and with watching the northern gulf coast get hit so hard since moving here two years ago from up in tornado alley. yeah, tornado's are worse in intensity, but they are little and fast.. not like a hurricane that is broad/wide and lasts for a long time
i have thanksgiving reservations for vacation on key west and was just there in july... so i'll check what happened since back then until thanksgiving. yeah, at the moment it looks like again those of us on the sw coast will be spared and the keys will get wilma. of course, always subject to probable change
hey bwana.. yeah, we'll see. gas up now, before the idiots sit in line on thurs-fri-sat
What Happens to the path if thing keeps moving West.
That is what will the effect on the FL landfall be. More North?
Hey Tybee22 i'm in Marathon
I will wait and see, too early to do anything yet. I also
have nothing to take care of but myself. Best of luck my
friend.
Also when will the NOAA data be available for the models. I won't beleive squat until they have this data.
I pray she bobbles a couple more frames w like she just did...it would give her time to blow more south....Cape Coral --we will shut her down on thursday.......go away Wilma...
Thanks FlCracker and BwanaDog, glad you are planning to leave, if necessary.
Greetings from Treasure Island, FL. This is my first post although I have been lurking for awhile. Obviously from my location at 5.5 feet above sea level I watch these storms closely.

Wondering if anybody here follows the hurricane futures contracts on intrade?
i'm about a mile, as the crow flies, from the inner-coastal (estero bay) and about 2-3 mi from the actual coast. i'm also on the third floor, in a condo facing eastward. i think i'll ride out a 3 or less, 4 maybe... def not a 5. problem is, i can't plan on whether to go to tampa (north) or miami (east) for yet a few more days, if needed. for now, it's just watch and wait.
I wonder when Steve Gregory will be updating tonight?
Looking forward to hearing if he thinks this is a S.FL event. My gut really does tell me Central Florida will escape this one too.

But I won't take my eye off of her till she clears the east coast of Florida somewhere.
Hi Tybee, Where did you hear about Goombay being cancelled? Goombay is alot of fun...I was kind of hoping this thing would take a turn and all would go on as planned.
i'm about a mile, as the crow flies, from the inner-coastal (estero bay) and about 2-3 mi from the actual coast. i'm also on the third floor, in a condo facing eastward. i think i'll ride out a 3 or less, 4 maybe... def not a 5. problem is, i can't plan on whether to go to tampa (north) or miami (east) for yet a few more days, if needed. for now, it's just watch and wait.

I am going middle, north even if it is at a rest stop.
We all know about the documented effects cooler water has on hurricane intensity.......has anybody ever done a hypothetical study on what would happen if a hurricane encountered water much warmer than normal.......say 95 or 97 degree water? Would we end up with a cat 6 or 7? or would it just blow itself out?
nah bwana... go all the way. no rest stop. that'd be a nightmare.

for one, i'm staying unless i have to leave.

if it goes up through the coast. i go to ft. lauderdale. if it's dead on out of the west... i go to tampa.

i don't know where i'll stay.. but who cares. i'm alone in florida.. no family.. still new... but i've survived a lot of things in my life.

one thing i DO know... do NOT depend on the gov't or other people to "take care of us". i just talked to my add in AZ and assured hm that no one needs to take care of me.. i'll take care of myself... and help others if need be... but i will not be stupid
95. irvy
anybody got an idea as to how much the windspeed drops when a storm has landfall on the west coast, and exits into the Atlantic?
i'm not sure a 6 or 7 is naturally possible. i wouldn't rule it out... but i don't think i CAN happen. actually.. a 5 or above.. you are toast regardless.

i'm just glad i AM above sea level. (11 feet above here)
Posted By: Buhdog at 12:14 AM GMT on October 19, 2005.
I pray she bobbles a couple more frames w like she just did...it would give her time to blow more south....Cape Coral --we will shut her down on thursday.......go away Wilma...


Buh, I may shut her down tomorrow. Not the city, just my business there. :P. I am really freaked out though about CC.
i would guess a cat3 hitting the west coast would be about a 1 upon exit to the east coast. heck, it really isn't that far across. i grew up in MO. it took 4 hours to get from k.c. to st.louis. here, i can get to ft.lauderdale in less than two.

basically, if it's bad, i'd say get out. i'm worried about getting stuck on the highway though.. so i'm preparing for whatever safe, reliable and responsible way to stay and ride it out. i'm a big strong guy. maybe i can help people?
DON'T go to tampa it could very easily hit there,in fact I live in the tampa bay are and we are getting ready to possibly leave to a very strong condominium thatb is 35 ft above sea level near clearwater,if you have to to ocala,that is not to far away and ocala will far pretty good.

one thing i DO know... do NOT depend on the gov't or other people to "take care of us". i just talked to my add in AZ and assured hm that no one needs to take care of me.. i'll take care of myself... and help others if need be... but i will not be stupid

Moneywise I am fine. Just have a bunch of animals. We're a little late to find a fortress for them to stay in (sorry about the grammar). We'll probably end up staying again. It sucks because of the inlaws thinking that this isn't serious, like Charley.
i think all us hurricane blog survivors should plan a get together on key west for thanksgiving. i'll be there. maybe eve open up my suite for an end of season party? let me know.
Oh do not worry about surge in the tampa bay area unless it the eye moves north of tampa winds will bve out of the east so it will blow high waves and water AWAY fdrom pinnelas county.the main threat unless the eye passes north of the tampa bay area will be wind and rain,surge and waves will be non - exsistent.
the absence of surge made charley what it was. THANK GOD!
bwanna dog---funny a buh dog and a bwanna dog both in the Cape! We will be fine....My roof witheld every shingle during Chazz.....and surge will not be higher than we can escape(worst case attic...and I learned from Katrina to take a saw up there).....it will be moving too fast.....just get your gas now....fire up the Generator..throw the kids in the closet with wife and matress...go sneak views of the storm!!! This is what I did Aug 13 2004....We learned this time....just have plenty of water and canned food.....besides....she is going to be south of us!!!!!
it ISN'T serious.. yet

here is my thought.. are we going to sit on our hands and then it hits and we cry for ppl to help us? i say no. prepare now, not out of paranioa... but out of responsibility. check your hurricane kits, get your communication lines set and when it's time to do something... you do the right thing.

i'm gonna go to work as usual tomorrow and tomorrow night is food stock night. thursday will be work again, as usual and be a packing night. if i'm leaving, i'm leaving friday. if not, then it's friday work as usual and i do whatever last minute prep i need to.

to my fellow bloggers.. my suggestion for tonight and tomorrow is this. get your kit ready. it's called hurricane preparedness kit and make sure you have extra to help other people too.

you never know when being a hero will happen and for me, it did once... in a tornado. be a hero.

go, kit.... now
I live in a mobile home park but not in a mobile home,there are 5 or 6 others like mine amongst the mobile homes,I live in the tampa bay area also and am taking this just as sirious as charley,I know quite abit about the weather,mostly locally and tropical weather though,including hurricanes,if these to lows out west do not merdge the likely hood of a tampa landfall increases significantly,this may be found out by tommorow night or on thursday stay tuned.....
I think it is sirious,everyone from the keys to brooksville need to start preparing to possibly board up in a a day or so or evacuate.That is my thinking.
hey, even if a party in the keys won't work for you all.. let's do a party here somewhere afterwards next week. just a get together to celebrate survival... and/or, that it missed us anyway!!! it prolly will you know... but don't count it out.
Lived through charlie last year. This one I think will miss us (FT. Myers)...my guess is through the keys out to the open sea. We'll see in the AM
Posted By: Buhdog at 12:50 AM GMT on October 19, 2005.
bwanna dog---funny a buh dog and a bwanna dog both in the Cape! We will be fine....My roof witheld every shingle during Chazz.....and surge will not be higher than we can escape(worst case attic...and I learned from Katrina to take a saw up there).....it will be moving too fast.....just get your gas now....fire up the Generator..throw the kids in the closet with wife and matress...go sneak views of the storm!!! This is what I did Aug 13 2004....We learned this time....just have plenty of water and canned food.....besides....she is going to be south of us!!!!!




THANK YOU VERY MUCH! I laughed so hard you probably heard it from you house. I did the same thing on the same date, although my kids all have four legs. Keep in touch in the next few days on here.
let's talk "HURRICANE KIT" everyone. does everyone know what they need in their kits?
It seems that it is doing what I predicted - at least from the intensity standpoint! I am leaving my prediction intact - Category 3 overnight, Category 4 by tomorrow afternoon and Category 5 by late tomorrow evening.
Heres a list a thorough hurricane kit list of Survival Materials:

*
* Food/Water *
* Bottled water ( 1 gallon per day per person) for 14 days*
* Manual can opener*
Non-perishable foods:*
o Canned meat, fish, fruit and vegetables
o Bread in moisture proof packaging
o Cookies, candy, dried fruit
o Canned soups, & milk
o Powdered or single serve drinks
o Cereal bars
o Package condiments
o Peanut butter and jelly
o Instant coffee & tea
*
* Flashlight (1 per person) * Portable battery powered lanterns
* Glass enclosed candles
* Battery powered radio or TV
* Battery operated alarm clock
* Extra batteries, including hearing aids
* Ice chest and ice
* First Aid Kit-including aspirin, antibiotic cream, and antacids
* Mosquito repellent
* Sun screen (45 SPF recommended)
* Waterproof matches/butane lighter
*
* Money* Plain bleach or water purification tablets
* Disposable plates, glasses, and Utensils
* Maps of the area with landmarks on it
* Cooking :
o Sterno
o Portable camp stove or grill
o Stove fuel or charcoal, lighter fluid
o Disposable eating utensils, plates & cups
o Napkins & paper towels
o Aluminum foil
o Oven mitts
* Personal Supplies:
o
o Prescriptions ( 1month supply)*
o Photo copies of prescriptions* Toilet paper
o
o Entertainment: books, magazines, card games etc* Soap and detergent
o
o Toiletries*
o Bedding: pillows, sleeping bag*
o Clothing for a few days* Rain ponchos, and work gloves
o Extra glasses or contact lenses
* Babies:
o
o Disposable diapers*
Formula, food and medication* Documents:
*
o Photo copies of prescriptions
o
o Photo identification* Proof of occupancy of residence (utility bills)
o Medical history or information
o Waterproof container for document storage
o Back-up disks of your home computer files
o Camera & film
* Pet Supplies
o Dry & canned food for two weeks
o Water (1/2 gallon per day)
o Litter box supplies
o Traveling Cage
* Other Necessities:
o Tools: hammer, wrenches, screw drivers, nails, saw
o Trash bags (lots of them)
o Cleaning supplies
o Plastic drop cloth
o Mosquito netting
o ABC rated fire extinguisher
o Masking or duct tape
o Outdoor extension cords
o Spray paint to identify your home if necessary
o One of your home phones (many people lost theirs during Andrew, even though their phone service still worked)
Next Hunter Aircraft is in route to Wilma. I have a feeling that when we see that next VORTEX we will be amazed - it will be worth staying up a few extra hours tonight. Latest IR pic is looking even more impressive. We may see 930 mb tonight.
DID ANYONE SEE WHAT I JUST SAW? LOOKS LIKE SHE TOOK A WOBBLE TO THE SW. OR AM I JUST WISHFUL THINKING?
116. OBXER
Anybody wanna speculate where Wilma goeas after crossing Florida?
Great list, Ric. Saw an article sometime back, not to throw out that old rotary dial phone. Land lines quite often stay intact, and if the power goes out.........
I still have ours - not that it does me any good, since I'm deaf, but the husband can use it.
Another checklist everyone should have, is the evacuation list. A lot of what was on Ric's list would carry over to an evacuation list, but you'd also want to be sure to add stuff like important papers, family photos, jewelry, family heirlooms, clothing for each family member, etc., as space allows.
One more item to add to the hurricane supply mix: INDIVIDUAL MAYONNAISE PACKETS!!!
hamboat - NICE. I hadn't thought of that. And I have been making up hurricane supply kits for years.
Your eyes are not playing tricks on you Cane, she bobbled a little SW. I still think track further north, but not by much.
thanks palmettobug. just trying to help ppl. you know ppl are going to freak out in the next few days. until then... we just prepare. i want to be on the side of someone that was smart, not in freakish panic. we got a few days yet to do what needs done.

just do your kits ppl, before the panic starts! when it's all done, you'll know you did right AHEAD of time. if it's all for naught, well, then fine. so, you got extra peanutbutter to eat for a while. :)
Don't forget SPAM for your emergency kit. I'm serious it's great to add because nobody will eat it out of boredom. You've got to really be in need to break out the SPAM.
I have friends in Ft. Myers, I hope they are taking this seriously
Don't get excited about a non north jog yet, the major influence to move north has not arrived yet. Tomorrow til Thurs day will be the important days. It can turn North very quickly if it does.
Hurriphoon, another excellent suggestion. I always skip the spam. The reason you just gave for including it is pure genius.
LOL I love that Hurri!! SPAM :)
127. dcw
I was in Orlando for Charley. It was the first hurricane I'd ever managed to get into, and it was truly amazing. I stood outside up till the eyewall, estimating winds (accurately, I might add). When the first spiral band came, we didn't recognize it at first. All of a sudden, the southern sky was BLACK. And it moved. Fast. 5 minutes later, the line reaches just above us, and the winds shoot up by 30mph in an instant. From there on, it only got more amazing, until at about 60mph winds the rain would sting your hand. I will never, ever stand against the fury of a Cat 4 or 5.

And that's what this monster will be: Katrina III
I have an installation of a burger king in Tampa starting-hopefully-Friday. Not looking good!
Unless I misssed it another great item is to go to Lowes and buy a 5 gallon paint bucket. They also sell lids. Then buy a roll of the smaller trash bags with ties. It makes a very handy portable toilet. Sometimes you can find a toilet seat designed to go on top of the can. You could probably buy an inexpensive seat and rig something up.
BUCKEYE, YOU SAID A TRACK FURTHER NORTH, WHEN? AFTER IT PASSES THE YUCATAN? OR BEFORE, AND HOW WOULD THAT EFFECT FLORIDA?
after the crossing.don't expect the front to pick her up until later on. talking close to Tampa
132. dcw
New recon:

000
URNT12 KNHC 182328
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/23:09:50Z
B. 16 deg 36 min N
081 deg 41 min W
C. 850 mb 1037 m
D. 45 kt
E. 178 deg 049 nm
F. 257 deg 080 kt
G. 167 deg 007 nm
H. 954 mb
I. 18 C/ 1518 m
J. 22 C/ 1524 m
K. 20 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C8
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0524A WILMA OB 21
MAX FL WIND 82 KT NE QUAD 21:39:30 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 101 KT N QUAD 23:12:10
VERY TIGHT WIND CENTER
You think the NHC track is off?
I think she will come close to the yucatan going northwest, then north for a short while, front will do it's thing,NE here she comes. Tampa
135. dcw
CaneJunky...that falls under the heading of too much information :)
A bit of pre-hurricane advice to add to ric's list...do ALL your laundry. We were without power for 9 days after Frances last year and I was totally out of towels!!! I'm in Bradenton (40 miles south of Tampa) and I will be doing laundry all day Friday if necessary.
All I can say is I hope this is the last one of the season!
not by much, but we'll know more when the jet arrives
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You'all Be Safe & Get Some Rest Tonite...While You Can.
I guess then I am screwed. I am just NE of Orlando.
Local Jax weathermen pretty confidient tonight its going to stay well south, but I dont think so
All I can say is I hope this is the last one of the season!
naw..just be watching,waiting,and be prepared!! There is alot of info that we just don't know yet.
144. dcw
When is the next recon?
I'm still thinking it's going right up Tampa Bay.
I am just nervious because of last year. I dont think I can handle another hit like Charley.
I agree...do all your laundry. I was stomping clothes in the tub after Hugo. Of course, in a worse case scenario, if your house gets totally trashed, clean laundry is a moot point.
Another thing BEFORE you evacuate. Be sure you're aware of your local evacuation routes. We're divided into zones, and each zone has it's own route. Also, be sure that every vehicle you own has a laminated road map in the glove box.
We wandered the back roads leaving for Floyd, and had no idea, really, of where we were going, except west. Having one in every vehicle insures that, no matter which one you take, you have your map.
LOL Palmetto!! I did the same! My first experience with a Hurricane! WOW
yeah they are calling for few passing showers and no more than 20 mph winds, and over all nice weekend up here, but if its closer to Tampa, we'll get a heck of alot more than that up here unless it goes do east across the stay
My wife and I are supposed to go to Nassau Bahamas on Friday. How much will the Bahamas be affected and should we cancel our trip?
This is NOT going to be another Katrina. That just isn't possible. There is no way a mid-October storm is going to rival a late August/early September storm. I just don't see how that's possible in the Gulf. It might be possible in the Carribean (Joan), but not in the Gulf.
152. dcw
This thing is intensifying just like Rita did, in very similar conditions...what's to stop it?

Link
I agree, no Katrina..but not something to take lightly
i can't stress enough... that having twice what you need will carry you twice as far, if need be... **OR** you may be able to HELP SOMEONE else, a kid, an elderly person, etc. THAT is a precious lifetime memory.

if you can, but TWO jars of peanut butter and TWO packages of baby wipes. buy FOUR cans of fruits. beef jerky will keep you alive too!

by the way, canned vegetables... corn, green beans, etc... doesn't have to be heated to eat it!

remember the hand can opener
Well Goodnight all. Gonna go get some sleep while I still can. Thank You to all that gave me good info. Much appreciated.
whatever she get to in the channel will be her max i believe, but i don't see her dropping more than 20mph wind speeds at landfall. at least not yet! :)
Anyone see this link?

http://hurricane.methaz.org/hurapak/AAL242005_staterep.html

They are calling for over $20 BILLION in damage from this storm...that's insane!

I'm still picking landfall just South of Sarasota as a strong Cat 1...90 MPH...a crappy day, but not a catastrophic storm like Charley was.
No, it shouldn't be taken lightly. It could strike the west coast of Florida as a CAT-3. That's the most likely scenario, IMHO.
Goodnight cane!! Sleep well! We'll be here in the AM!
Posted By: MartyLynn at 1:28 AM GMT on October 19, 2005.
My wife and I are supposed to go to Nassau Bahamas on Friday. How much will the Bahamas be affected and should we cancel our trip?


cancel, but wait a day first
RobertForsman, do you remember Hurricane Mitch in 1998? It was just as strong as Katrina and Rita, and it happened in the last week of October (in the same area as Wilma, I might add)
In looking at the SST close to the FL coast, I might venture that wilma might drop to a Cat 2 at landfall. QUestion remains, what would the extent of hurricane force winds be? Small like charley or a large strom like Frances?
Accuweather has now suggests that Wilma could become a Cat 5 as for a time before it peaks. They also said this would be the first time, if it does, three cat-5 hurricanes in the Atlantic basin
Accuweather has now suggested that it could become a Cat 5 hurricane for a while before it peaks ....
NHC has it tracking right over our area. I am worn out still from last years two storms. If it is going as fast as predicted, appears it will still have quite a punch for us on the east coast, particularly if were looking at a cat 3 or 4 at landfall on the west coast. I'll be keeping a close eye on the 11:00 advisory. Shutters will need to go up on Thurs. at latest. Anyone else here in PB County?
NHC has it tracking right over our area. I am worn out still from last years two storms. If it is going as fast as predicted, appears it will still have quite a punch for us on the east coast, particularly if were looking at a cat 3 or 4 at landfall on the west coast. I'll be keeping a close eye on the 11:00 advisory. Shutters will need to go up on Thurs. at latest. Anyone else here in PB County?

Folks live in st Lucie county
CAT 5??? NFW...
We are getting torrential rain right now in Fort Lauderdale (at least where I'm at)... a good 45 minutes, non-stop...

Marty.... where are you departing from? and from what I've read, the Bahamas shouldn't be too pleasant this weekend, however< i'm definitely no expert :)
Slightly revised estimates - same track, just reaches Cat 5 sooner, then up and down with eyewall cycles (Current = 8:00 pm advisory):

Current - 16.7/81.8 - 954mb - 100mph
6 hrs - 16.9/82.4 - 938mb - 125mph
12 hrs - 17.3/82.2 - 929mb - 145mph
24 hrs - 18.1/82.8 - 915mb - 165mph
36 hrs - 19.7/82.9 - 908mb - 165mph
48 hrs - 21.3/82.8 - 916mb - 150mph
60 hrs - 22.8/82.5 - 914mb - 160mph Near Cuba Landfall
64 hrs - 23.0/82.4 - 914mb - 160mph Landfall
72 hrs - 24.0/82.1 - 953mb - 110mph Over Water
96 hrs - 27.2/79.4 - 936mb - 145mph Over Water near SE Florida
120 hrs - 33.0/77.3 - 938mb - 135mph
National Forcasting World
171. dcw
Link to the Cat 5 hint? I can't find it.
CAT 5??? NFW...

Yeah, I think that's a tad optimistic?
Actually, this could be the fourth Category 5 hurricane...Emily might have been one for a while between advisories and might be upgraded officially in the final reports...
Slightly revised estimates - same track, just reaches Cat 5 sooner, then up and down with eyewall cycles (Current = 8:00 pm advisory):

Current - 16.7/81.8 - 954mb - 100mph
6 hrs - 16.9/82.4 - 938mb - 125mph
12 hrs - 17.3/82.2 - 929mb - 145mph
24 hrs - 18.1/82.8 - 915mb - 165mph
36 hrs - 19.7/82.9 - 908mb - 165mph
48 hrs - 21.3/82.8 - 916mb - 150mph
60 hrs - 22.8/82.5 - 914mb - 160mph Near Cuba Landfall
64 hrs - 23.0/82.4 - 914mb - 160mph Landfall
72 hrs - 24.0/82.1 - 953mb - 110mph Over Water
96 hrs - 27.2/79.4 - 936mb - 145mph Over Water near SE Florida
120 hrs - 33.0/77.3 - 938mb - 135mph

Crikey!!!
crazy, you think the SST off the coast of FL and the predicted wind shear would support cat 5?
Hello again.. The storm is right in line with what I expected 72 hrs ago. I am also calling for a US landfall further north than all computer models current prediction
It's on Accuweather homepage under impact on Florida updated
CrazyC83, what is the source for your estimates???
FWIW, I just saw Joe Bastardi on Fox News, and he said it would be weakening at landfall...not a repeat of Charley...he said New England could get hammered, though.
They are just that - my own estimates based on my own assessments of the systems, the water and wind conditions and my own gut instinct.
Tampa,

your first error was watching Fox news...your second was sourcing it on a scientific web blog...
let's all just calmly buy our kit needs asap and wait till panic. even then, don't panic! keep drama to a minimum and remember how life teaches us the most minute lessons.

it's not how we handle crisis, but how we smile during it.. one day at a time, one minute at a time. you can influence someones entire life path just by being prepared, calm, trustworthy and sane.

handle the moment, not the crisis as a whole. it may not even BE a crisis for you.. but it will be for someone... whether close to you or not.

prayers are always good. no matter if it's for yourself.. for those close... or for those far away. you will have done SOMETHING and then that piece of mind, no matter how small... will gain on itself and you wil be a better person, more forgiving, more noble and those you come in contact with will remember... they will ALWAYS remember.

influence a life, no matter what you do and smile at someone in the morning while you are buying supplies. say thanks to the person that you pay and get ready... whether you need to or not.

we can all say the sky will fall and scare everyone... or we can calmly do what needs done. right?
Hey, Computermodelsfail2c, WTF does Fox News have to do with it? You're not one of those kool-aid lefties, are ya??? That's okay...we welcome all kinds here!

Anyway...I'm so certain that Wilma will be 95 MPH, tops, at landfall, I'm not even gonna board up...BRING IT, WILMA!!!
caneman--good to see you posting more. I'm hoping your folks will be ok. Will keep'm in my prayers.
Alright, do I need to find dry stalls for my horses? I am in West Palm Beach. Please tell me the forecast is off and it is going south of the Keys. My mom is in Key Largo and she is a little tired of this. I am just getting my siding up that was ripped off from the two last year!

By the way, you MUST have a coffee pot that perks for a hurricane. For those of us who can't stand instant coffee an old fashion coffee pot is a lifesaver (for you and those who you are around!)!
subtropic.......Hi, watched Bryan tonight, he already has that worried, weary look.. telling everyone not to relax just because the storm is coming from the West, it will still be something to reckon with, should it come here. More importantly, don't know if you have followed our locals previously, Don Noe, Mr. "I'm afraid to predict anything" on channel 10 (ABC) are already interrupting prime time shows for updates....now the bet is on who goes to Wilma coverage full-time..

Skyepony, or anyone else...Not sure how to read the max wind potential link. So what is the indicated max wind potential for the northwestern coast of Honduras. In miles per hour?
Correction that's the northeastern coast of honduras.
All of our TV has gone to top of the hour updates on Wilma. That is not a good sign!
wow, i can't believe we are seeing ANOTHER annular storm. Agreed...or am i way off here?
wbp
so has our area.
Also, our weathermen are suggesting the shape of the trof will determine the track over Florida.
Interesting.
just depends on how strong this trof is as to when she turns
Maximun Potential Hurracane Intensity Link This should answer some questions, shows how strong of winds or least amount of pressure pressure the surface conditions will allow. Scroll down, 1st 2 maps are our area of intrest.
skyepony, try that again.
Skyepony, I got as far as the link but I don't know how to read that map and I don't know how to convert knots to miles per hour. I'm from California remember?
what are you looking at skyepony? I can't get the link to work
CalGal~ that's just what the sea atmoshere will support, if a cane goes there. Been keepin an eye on the island.
skyepony, try it again.
I'll never forget the Friday before Andrew and Don Noe said that night that Andrew was going north and not bother us at all. Brian Norcross on the other channel was very concern about a possible westerly course, with a possible threat to South Florida. The next day it turned into hurricane and moving directly at us and I went to the grocery Saturday morning and not one person was aware of Andrew. By that PM panick hit South Florida. From that point forward I never took Don Noe seriously again.
Where is Jim Cantore?
Got it that time. Thanks! And that is a great site btw. Thanks for posting it.
it worked the potental the water holds, don't forget to minus the shear
LOL! sometimes i think they (local weathermen) don't even bother to read the latest updates. it's just a "JOB"
Matilda...... exactly!! Don told everyone to "go have a good weekend, I myself am going fishing in the Bahamas"... back then thw WC was pretty good and of course Bryan...our neighbors were laughing, actually laughing when we started putting up hurricane shutters ....where are you Matilda?
THANKS Skyepony!
CalGal, He shouldn't see more than small tress sway. The waves we'll have to watch~ You ever find out his elevation?
billsfan. I have been eagerly awaiting the word from "The Bryan". Anything to share?
may sound silly, but whenever a hurricane threatens, I order a large pizza(as close as I can until delivery stops) to have in case power goes out....hey, everyone has had cold pizza at least once in their life? and if you're hungry... well... plus we have a generator...easy to zap it
Fort Lauderdale Beach near Oakland Park Blvd and A1A
Billsfaninfla, Have you noticed that Pizza delivery sometimes resumes before power in smaller hurricanes?..Cat 1-2 I am not sure if this reality is funny or just entrepeneurship at it's best...
11pm update is onimous and the "dreaded pin hole eye"
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005

WILMA HAS DEVELOPED THE DREADED PINHOLE EYE. REPORTS FROM THE AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING WILMA BETWEEN 19Z AND
23Z INDICATED A 7-8 N MI WIDE EYE...WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
DROPPING FROM 970 MB TO 954 MB IN 3 HR 14 MIN. THE MAXIMUM
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT AT 850 MB WERE 101 KT.
SINCE THAT TIME...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED ORGANIZATION...
WITH A RING OF COLD TOPS OF -80C TO -87C SURROUNDING THE EYE.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 90
KT FROM AFWA. BASED ON THIS AND EXTRAPOLATION OF THE LAST AIRCRAFT
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 95 KT. THIS MAY BE
CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS THE 12 HR MOTION OF 285/7...ALTHOUGH FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE EYE HAS BEEN MOVING ALMOST DUE WEST AND
PERHAPS A LITTLE SLOWER. WILMA IS SOUTH OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO EASTWARD TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND
SOUTHEAST OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE RIDGES SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE
NEXT 36-48 HR AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN
ARIZONA MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD. THE RIDGES SHOULD
COLLAPSE COMPLETELY AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AFTER 72 HR. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE
WILMA TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR 48 HR OR SO...THEN TURN
NORTHWARD...THEN RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES AFTER 72 HR. ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS SOME SPREAD ON THE EXACTLY WHERE WILMA WILL RECURVE BETWEEN THE
LEFT-MOST GFDN AND RIGHT-MOST UKMET. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT FOR THE FIRST 48 HR BASED ON THE
CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
TRACK SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MODELS DO NOT COMPLETELY
AGREE ON HOW THE EASTERN U. S. TROUGH WILL EVOLVE...AND THESE
DIFFERENCES COULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN WHAT PARTS OF
FLORIDA WILMA WILL ULTIMATELY AFFECT.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BECOME MORE COMPLICATED. THE CURRENT
RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BRING WILMA
TO CATEGORY FOUR STATUS IN THE NEXT 24 HR...AND IT WOULD NOT BE A
SURPRISE TO SEE IT REACH CATEGORY FIVE BEFORE IT BOTTOMS OUT.
HOWEVER...SSM/I DATA SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION WITH THE EYEWALL
COVERS A VERY SMALL AREA...WITH A DISTINCT DRY MOAT ALREADY PRESENT
OUTSIDE THE EYEWALL. OUTSIDE OF THAT IS A BROKEN CONVECTIVE BAND
THAT AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OUTER WIND MAXIMUM.
THUS...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT WILMA WILL GO THROUGH A CONCENTRIC
EYEWALL CYCLE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR...AND SINCE THE INNER EYE IS
SO SMALL THERE COULD BE NOTABLE WEAKENING UNTIL THE OUTER EYEWALL
CONTRACTS. SINCE THESE CYCLES ARE HARD TO TIME...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL HOLD AT 125 KT FROM 24-48 HR. WHEN WILMA MOVES INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO...IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GRADUALLY INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE A SLOW WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH IT IS PROBABLE THAT WILMA
WILL STILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

THE NOAA G4 JET FLEW ITS FIRST SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION ON
WILMA THIS EVENING...AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE THE IMPACT
ON THE 00Z MODEL RUNS.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0300Z 16.8N 82.1W 95 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 17.2N 83.1W 110 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 18.1N 84.2W 125 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 19.2N 85.0W 125 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 20.4N 85.5W 125 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 23.0N 85.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 23/0000Z 26.0N 81.0W 90 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 24/0000Z 33.0N 72.0W 75 KT

Posted By: TampaSteve at 2:04 AM GMT on October 19, 2005.
FWIW, I just saw Joe Bastardi on Fox News, and he said it would be weakening at landfall...not a repeat of Charley...he said New England could get hammered, though.

.
.
After reading that now I'm really worried for the first time wherever this thing strikes. The normal Joey B. take is to look at a map....look at the most likely spot that can cause the greatest calamity...and predict utter destuction. It's probably going to be a Cat. 7 now that he's calling for something reasonable...
NHC now expects a major hurricane to strike SW Florida.
Signing in from West Bay, Grand Cayman. Wilma is causing us at 0200 GMT, Wednesday, 19 October, sustained winds of 30 mph with gusts of perhaps 45-50 mph. House on stilts is swaying. Cayman Airways flew a jet out of here this evening to secure it in Miami. We are experiencing, so far, similar effects as we did with Emily. Rain is rather light and sporadic so far. Expected to feel most intensity at 0800 GMT. Lots of whistles and roars.
Parcay. Thanks for that. Be safe.
Cosmic....oh that's funny...cat7....you're making me wistful for old stormtop...
221. dcw
Tonight is a night to pray, this could be very very bad.
After reading that now I'm really worried for the first time wherever this thing strikes. The normal Joey B. take is to look at a map....look at the most likely spot that can cause the greatest calamity...and predict utter destuction. It's probably going to be a Cat. 7 now that he's calling for something reasonable...

Yeah, CosmicEvents, I was thinking the very same thing...Bastardi not calling for a biblical catastrophe???
Jim Cantore better stay the hell outta Hillsborough County!
if it does reach cat 5...how low would the pressure be [given this storms history of having pressures much lower then the wind speed would suggest]

160mph and 887mb lol
im exaggerating of course. but still... 945 and 110, 954 and 100...
Ok Tampa..now you agree that that taking Fox weather seriously is a danger...So nice..
Parcay ... be safe from a fellow islander :)
we have to vigilant in The Bahamas now for Wilma :(
Annular storm? This is still a long ways from being such...still quite disorganized in the outer bands...
Yeah, Bastardi is the problem, not Fox News...but I still say Wilma is gonna puss out...100 MPH tops at landfall
Where IS Cantore, anyway??? ;-)
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MODELS DO NOT COMPLETELY
AGREE ON HOW THE EASTERN U. S. TROUGH WILL EVOLVE...AND THESEDIFFERENCES COULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN WHAT PARTS OF FLORIDA WILMA WILL ULTIMATELY AFFECT.

That was from the NHC Discussion.

Clearly it's looking like SW Florida for a potential landfall but the West Coast up to the Big Bend of Florida should also keep a watchful eye on the storm this week as well.

The model runs tonight into early tomorrow should give us a good idea since the NOAA G4 Jet has now surveyed the atmosphere and environment around the storm.
231. OBXER
any lefty sightings?
TampaSteve what was that about Jim Cantore or what if he dos not stay out of Hillsborough County what are you going to do hmmm shoot him
233. OBXER
mybahamas where are you i have a house on GTC in Abaco
easy david. It was just a joke I'm sure.

OBXER. lefty pops in every now and then, but mostly he has been posting in his own blog now.
http://scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?chanID=sa003&articleID=000525AD-1223-1354-922383414B7F0000

Fox News
236. OBXER
thanks sub
anytime obxer.
I've now pushed my projection westward...meaning that Wilma will make several landfalls - Cuba, then Florida (SE part), then North Carolina, then the Northeast...
Hey all. I'm a newbie here. Been lurking for a few days and really find it fun and interesting. I'm a native FL guy and been here a long time. I'm thinking this one is gonna come further north then tracks show. We are way way over due up here in the St. Pete area.

Thanks for all the great info you all put up here.
Norcross(CBS MIAMI) mentioned "MITCH" at 10pm and 11pm. But he still thinks the NHC and models are right about Wilma. Don Noe and Trent Aric(ABC MIAMI) spent nearly 10mins on WILMA...I think they are taking the threat seriously. Noe sounded concerned that it went from CAT 1 to almost CAT 3 in no time....everyone to Publix

Stay classy,FURLEY OUT!
i hope you are right mister....we do not care for anything else after going through a cat 1 called Katrina. The mulch piles are still here from the thousands of tons of tree debris from a cat. 1....i can not imagine a cat 3 or 4 in this area. (I was not here for Andrew)
going to publix and get gas/money tomorrow to hopefully beat the rush.....
Thanks Mr Furley (absolutely TOP NOTCH username btw!)
I'm in Nassau :)
OK THIS IS THE WIND MAP FOR THE 11 PM ADVISORY...THERE IS NO LEGEND BUT I CAN TELL U THE GREY STARTS AT 39mph AND THE DARKEST RED OVER FL IS 85-95MPH


Image hosted by Photobucket.com


FTLPUNK--

someone should show this to the goober doing weather on NBC6...he was acting as if we shouldnt worry.."this thing could hit big bend or cuba" or it couldcome right over DOWNTOWN FT LAUD!!!... I wish they'd stop worrying about panic and just report facts. sure it could hit cedar key or havana, but best info at this time says South FL. sorry had to vent, this downpour is messing up my Directv.

stay classy,FURLEY OUT!
Nicely done, FtLauderdalepunk. One thing that map shows nicely is that a little shift in track leads to a big shift in impacts. The track is very uncertain this far out.

Even if models are coming more into (temporary?) agreement, Wilma has yet to really go where the models are pointing, has a mind of her own...
Looks like plane is headed in ....

Time (Z) Lat Lon Alt Dir Speed Gust Temp Dewp
04:08:00 18.01 -81.43 5007 116 67 67 64 61
04:08:30 18 -81.45 5004 117 67 67 64 62
04:09:00 17.98 -81.46 5007 118 67 67 63 62
04:09:30 17.95 -81.48 5007 118 67 67 63 63
04:10:00 17.93 -81.5 5007 119 70 70 63 63
04:10:30 17.91 -81.51 5000 119 71 71 64 64
04:11:00 17.88 -81.51 5010 118 70 71 63 63
04:11:30 17.86 -81.53 5004 121 72 75 63 63
04:12:00 17.83 -81.53 5013 120 74 75 63 63
04:12:30 17.81 -81.55 5000 116 74 75 63 63
04:13:00 17.8 -81.56 4997 115 76 80 61 61
04:13:30 17.76 -81.56 5026 113 75 79 59 59
04:14:00 17.75 -81.58 4990 110 72 74 60 60
04:14:30 17.71 -81.58 5004 109 78 80 60 60
04:15:00 17.7 -81.6 5000 113 77 79 58 58
04:15:30 17.66 -81.61 5017 118 75 78 58 58
04:16:00 17.65 -81.61 4997 116 82 84 59 59
04:16:30 17.63 -81.63 5007 116 83 83 60 60
04:17:00 17.6 -81.63 5010 117 84 85 60 60
04:17:30 17.58 -81.65 5004 118 85 85 60 60
04:18:00 17.56 -81.66 5004 118 85 86 60 60
04:18:30 17.53 -81.66 5007 116 84 84 62 62
04:19:00 17.51 -81.68 5007 114 77 79 60 60
04:19:30 17.48 -81.7 5000 113 80 85 59 59
04:20:00 17.46 -81.7 5010 110 85 89 59 59
04:20:30 17.43 -81.71 4984 113 76 78 60 60
04:21:00 17.41 -81.73 5033 116 75 78 60 60
04:21:30 17.4 -81.73 4994 121 69 74 62 62
04:22:00 17.36 -81.73 5004 120 62 64 63 63
04:22:30 17.35 -81.75 5004 119 60 60 63 63
04:23:00 17.31 -81.75 4997 116 59 60 65 65
04:23:30 17.3 -81.76 5013 115 59 60 67 66
04:24:00 17.26 -81.76 4997 114 59 59 67 67
04:24:30 17.25 -81.78 5013 115 57 57 67 67
04:25:00 17.21 -81.78 5000 117 60 60 67 66
04:25:30 17.2 -81.8 5007 117 59 60 67 65
04:26:00 17.16 -81.8 5000 116 60 62 68 65
04:26:30 17.15 -81.8 5007 118 64 66 68 65
04:27:00 17.13 -81.81 5007 119 68 69 68 65
04:27:30 17.1 -81.81 5004 119 71 72 67 67
And there some big torist thing in Key West this weekend!
I am in West Palm Beach and I am turning
into ChickenMan. After frances and Jeanne last year, I
am burned out.
177 mph flight level winds with 186 mph gusts!!

Time (Z) Lat Lon Altitude Dir Speed Gust Temp Dewp
04:28:00 17.08 -81.83 5007 120 76 76 67 67
04:28:30 17.05 -81.83 5010 118 79 82 67 67
04:29:00 17.03 -81.85 5000 116 87 90 67 67
04:29:30 17.01 -81.86 5010 116 98 102 66 66
04:30:00 16.98 -81.88 5004 120 114 120 65 65
04:30:30 16.96 -81.9 5023 117 131 137 64 64
04:31:00 16.95 -81.9 5004 116 151 156 63 63
04:31:30 16.93 -81.91 5053 115 177 186 63 63
04:32:00 16.91 -81.93 4974 118 147 185 65 65
04:32:30 16.88 -81.93 4626 133 41 60 78 76
04:33:00 16.86 -81.93 5102 210 18 24 77 69
04:33:30 16.83 -81.93 6286 255 69 108 69 69
04:34:00 16.81 -81.95 7330 268 153 161 57 57
04:34:30 16.8 -81.95 8514 265 146 156 54 54
04:35:00 16.76 -81.95 8803 266 121 129 54 54
04:35:30 16.75 -81.95 9446 268 103 109 51 51
04:36:00 16.73 -81.96 9850 273 89 93 52 52
04:36:30 16.71 -81.98 9964 277 77 80 52 52
04:37:00 16.68 -82 9974 280 67 70 53 53
04:37:30 16.66 -82.01 10007 282 57 61 54 53
no way is this now a cat 5 hurricane?
If this keeps up, there is going to be civil unrest in South Florida...we CANNOT escape away from this storm...the highway infrastructure will not support a mass evacuation. If it maintains high intensity we are in big trouble with human and weather factors.
David, based on the recon it's looking like it is indeed a cat 5. You called it! Nice work!
000
URNT12 KNHC 190446
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/04:32:40Z
B. 16 deg 52 min N
081 deg 56 min W
C. 850 mb 516 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 116 deg 162 kt
G. 15 deg 003 nm
H. EXTRAP 901 mb
I. 17 C/ 1537 m
J. 26 C/ 1557 m
K. 25 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C4
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0724A WILMA OB 07
MAX FL WIND 162 KT NE QUAD 04:31:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
subtropic thank you i am hering on the twc that the winds are now 185mph
HOLY SHIT 901MB!!!!!!!!!!
FloridaBeachBum is correct. I just heard it on the Weather Channel. The forecaster said he has never seen anything like this. Pressure has dropped to 901mb. He said everyone the "jaws of everyone in the newsroom dropped" when they read the reconnaisance report.
258. MIAWX
so max flight level wind was 162kt, what does that translate to the surface? anyone know? this is getting scarier by the moment!
dropped 53 mb in 4 hrs ... that does not seem real

at 23:09:50Z was 954mb ... now 901 !!!
that is what I said, holy s**t. I didn't do a double take or triple take even. I thought this was for another storm when I first saw it, even the date did not convince me, not until I saw the word Wilma in the recon report did I believe it. I asked my brother if he thought this would get down into Rita territory, he said no way. I thought it might but not this quick, no way. This is an amazing pressure drop.
think you wow
this has to be a cat 5
Category 4 officially
264. MIAWX
AN AIR FORCE PLANE MEASURED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF NEAR 150
MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS AN EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE
HURRICANE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE TODAY.

WOW!
HURRICANE WILMA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND THE FORECAST
INTENSITY OF WILMA. AN AIR FORCE PLANE JUST MEASURED 162 KNOTS AT
850 MB AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 901 MB IN A PINHOLE EYE. WILMA IS
NOW A VERY STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AND COULD BECOME A
CATEGORY FIVE TODAY. NO CHANGE IN TRACK IS NECESSARY.
Hey Skypony, got a question about those maps. I can't zoom in on the Katrina estimates, but from what it looks like its way off. First reports are in from Bay St. Louis reporting 28ft storm surge, but map says 9ft from what I can tell, just wondering how its that far off or if its just me
Does anyone have any idea about what happens after Florida, are there any models that take it to North Carolina? I would love your thoughts.

so could the mb get in the 800s any one no
Why is the NHC downplaying this as a cat 4 when winds and pressure clearly support 145kt maximum sustained winds.
270. MIAWX
yes, the lowest pressure in the atlantic was Gilbert, measuring 888mb. lowest on earth was Typhoon Tip in the Pacific, measuring 979mb!
271. MIAWX
correction..typhoon tip measured 870mb. (i'm sleepy)
Why is the NHC downplaying this as a cat 4

a special 1am advisory is hardly downplaying....there will be lots of surprised folks in south florida this morning...hope the folks in Keys are still prepared.

Stay classy,FURLEY OUT!
I thought typhoon Ida was 853 mb
274. sigh
>Does anyone have any idea about what happens after
>Florida, are there any models that take it to North
>Carolina? I would love your thoughts.

No. Every single model takes the storm rapidly out into the open Atlantic after crossing Florida.
its downplaying when they always are so sure to follow their recon data for continuity sake and now when data clearly indicates 145KT [unless something else would say otherwise which isnt made apparent yet] ... they put it at 130KT.
whats the record for most sub 900mb cyclones in one year ?
The storm is officially at 130 knots instead of 145 knots because the 80% of flight-level winds is more correct for a pinhole eye--there is no stadium effect yet--when you get stadium effect, you have a stronger cyclonic effect at the surface than would otherwise be anticipated in the air, i.e. a smaller eye radius and thus stronger winds than with the pinhole eye that Wilma currently has. However, with a 901 mb pressure, it will be interesting to see what happens--however, an eyewall replacement cycle might be imminent, and there might not be much further intensification; if an eyewall replacement cycle doesn't happen, then we may end up seeing a stadium effect and the winds will probably increase to around 190 mph.
well i wont debate your point. the NHC is very conservative; that's the nature of scientists and government employees. Plus the local officials think about money first and NHC realizes this.

But I saw Mayfield on TV tonight..he wasnt downplaying anything...he was worried that there would be enough time for Keys to do much of anything.

Local Miami weather spoke of Wilma reaching 3 maybe 4 tomorrow, but weakening to 1 or 2 by landfall...no one was expecting CAT 5.
huh interesting. Thanks!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg

am i right in saying that it looks like its developing one?
It's too difficult to say if it's developing a stadium effect, but I'd say no simply because the eye is too small--it might be at the beginning of a relatively rapid eyewall replacement cycle. However, I'm not sure that a cyclone with pressure this low has ever been witnessed to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle, so this should be interesting. Oh well, off to bed for me, have to see what it's done in the morning...
mmm it does look like the central dense overcast is beginning to break down into banding like katrina did; its particularly apparent on dvorak
OK ALL TwC TROPICAL UPDATE IS ON IN 1 MIN
Jeez, is Wilma sitting on top of a 90-degree pool of Red Bull or something? Holy schamoly.
FTLPUNK--

Do you have coordinates for Plantation? NHC has WILMA at 26N 81W on Saturday..just curious
I'm in Grand Cayman and there is a steady wind but no particularly heavy rain - our dish network is still working and that goes down at the slightest excuse. Dr Masters is right when he says we don't get too affected by flooding (other than the 10 foot storm surge, gift of Ivan, type).

It looks like the worst of the wind will pass us by, but the coast is gonna pounded by some heavy wave action.

Good luck to you all in Fla.
What's up my hungover wunderground friends...? Well, we have another hurricane on our hands and to my amazement, this storm is indeed going to take a 90 degree turn toward Florida (perhaps a little south or 'thread the needle' is the best case). While I feel for those in Florida, I have to say after eight storms over the past two years --- why don't yall move to the South Texas coast where we are SAFE from storms!!!!?????

I know all hurricanes are bad and at first I could sympathize with you all down in Florida, but after EIGHT??!!! YALL are NUTS living there!!!!!!! We are going to enjoy a gentle breeze, sunny, mild, and DRY conditions here in South Texas -- Just like we always do when hurricanes threaten the Gulf!!! Come on Down!!

MargaRITAs and MargarWILMAs here in sunny south texas ..!!
warren madden is gonna piss himself lol
Lat/Lon: 26.14 -80.27
thanks..i will start building my bunker now
lol punk ill bet it will be lyons too lol
THANK YOU SIGH
any of you that want to join us in my blog are more than welcome. thats wheremost of us are

lefty's blog
From Dr. Masters' post:

Wilma is a solid Category 2 hurricane, and probably on her way to Category 3 status by early Wednesday morning.

At this point, the only way she'll be a Category 3 when people wake up this morning is if a chain of 20,000-foot mountains sprout up in her path.

Wow
wilma is a cat 4 and just shy of cat 5 901 milabar at 2 am from plane ..........................winda are at 150 mph....................WOW
HURRICANE Wilma TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HURRICANE Wilma
HAS BECOME AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED
175 MPH WINDS AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 892 MB. THIS IS
THE LOWEST PRESSURE OBSERVED IN 2005 AND IS EQUIVALENT TO THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS.
Sorry lefty, a bunch of us just celebrated our EOTT or (End Of Texas Threat) last night. We do this every year when hurricanes no longer threaten the Texas coast for the remainder of the hurricane season. I'm not usually one to gloat, but after a few hair-raising instances this year, we in TX feel it is a time for celebration and a time to give thanks for a safe year with no catastrophic storms (except for far east Texas).

Again, sorry for the distraction -- I know a bunch of ya'll are trying to figure Wilma out.

Until next year -- take it easy and everyone stay safe.

In the words of Gen. Honore ------>>> OVER!
297. avlos
i seriously came close to pissing myself.... i had an inkling it might be a major hurricane soon... but not this possessed monster... the circulation is so tightly wound it could still strengthen.... the CDO is the most amazing i've ever seen, wow. May it die as fast as it has strengthened, not likely but we can hope.
298. Maui
888? Any takers?
hmmm 892mb wow any one thinking a 885mb or a 880mb? let me no
Maui i go in with you with 888mb
2 mile wide eye?! thats freaking AMAZING
302. Maui
Its also impossible. Isn't it?
Maui: Apparently not.
i say 195 or 200mph winds by 5 am any one going in with me?
MIAMI, Florida (CNN) -- Hurricane Wilma has strengthened into an "extremely dangerous" Category 5 hurricane, with sustained maximum winds of 175 mph, the National Hurricane Center said Wednesday.

The hurricane's minimum pressure is 892 millibars -- the lowest pressure observed in 2005.

Forecasters warn that the storm could possibly slam into southwestern Florida by this weekend.

At 2:30 a.m. EDT, the National Hurricane Center reported an Air Force plane had found 175 mph winds with higher gusts in Wilma.

Wilma "has become an extremely dangerous Category Five hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale," the center said in an advisory.

The storm's minimum pressure of 892 millibars "is equivalent to the minimum pressure of the 1935 Labor Day hurricane in the Florida Keys," the advisory added.

The storm has already left seven to 10 people dead in Haitian mudslides caused by heavy rains, government officials told Reuters news agency.

The latest in a slew of devastating storms to sock the Gulf region, Wilma became a hurricane Tuesday -- tying the record for both most hurricanes in a season with 12 and most named storms at 21.

Just nine hours after becoming a hurricane, Wilma's wind speeds had jumped from 75 mph to 100 mph. Then, within two hours, the winds intensified from 110 to 150 mph. A short time later, its winds had increased to 175 mph.

At 2 a.m. EDT, the center of the storm was located 170 miles south-southwest of Grand Cayman Island and about 400 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. It was moving west-northwest at nearly 8 mph and is expected to turn to the northwest over the next 24 hours, the hurricane center said.

A Category 5 hurricane can cause a storm surge of more than 18 feet above normal.

Projections for Wilma's path suggest the storm may skirt the western tip of Cuba on Friday, possibly as a Category 4 storm with winds of greater than 130 mph, before curving eastward and barreling toward the southwestern Florida coast.

"All interests in the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula should closely monitor the progress of Wilma," the NHC said.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward about 15 miles from the eye, and tropical-storm-force winds stretch up to 155 miles from the center.

Cuba has issued a hurricane watch for the provinces of Matanzas westward through Pinar del Rio and for the Isle of Youth, according to the hurricane center. Late Tuesday, Mexico extended a hurricane watch for the Yucatan Peninsula. The watch area now stretches from Punta Gruesa to Cabo Catoche. A hurricane watch means hurricane conditions, including winds of at least 74 mph, are possible within 36 hours.

A 150-mile stretch of the Honduran coast is under a tropical storm warning, and the Cayman Islands are under tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch.

The hurricane center said Cuba could get anywhere from 10 to 15 inches of rain in Wilma's wake, with some areas getting socked with as much as 25 inches. Additional rainfall accumulations of of up to 10 inches, with up to 15 inches possible in some areas, was possible across the Cayman Islands and Jamaica through Thursday. Across the Yucatan Peninsula, rainfall of up to 6 inches was possible, with up to 12 inches in some areas.

Wilma is the 21st named storm of the 2005 hurricane season and the 12th to reach hurricane status. Of those, five have developed into major hurricanes.

The only other time 12 hurricanes have been recorded in the Atlantic was in 1969, according to the hurricane center. The most major hurricanes in a year was eight, in 1950.

Wilma is also the final name on the 2005 list. The hurricane center does not use certain letters of the alphabet, including X, Y and Z, because there are so few names begin with those letters.

If any tropical storms and subsequent hurricanes form before the season ends on Nov. 30, they will be classified using the Greek alphabet, beginning with Alpha.

If that happens, it would be the first time since the naming of storms began in 1953, according to the hurricane center.

Reuters contributed to this report.

306. Maui
888...g:

I would say you were getting carried away. But with that low of pressure and that tight an eyewall I don't think 200 would be out of the question.

Only thing: how long can she possibly hold on without dumping that 2nm eye? Can we make anything of the recon reports not mentioned concentric eyewalls? They usually mention them... but how could she not have one by this point?
Winds beginning to steadily increase...
absolutely amazing.
What are people going to think when they wake up and find that out???

I can't WAIT to see what Dr. Masters has to say about this. This'll be his most interesting post yet!!!
310. xkcd
Hey, someone just brought up an interesting point -- if they retire "Hurricane Alpha", what replaces it?
311. Maui
looks we have a record. 884 mb.
Newbie here. Been lurking since Katrina. Great info.

My money is on 882mb. Two questions..

1) Whats with the rapid intensification of the storms this year? it just seems like all the major ones have been ramping up FAST.

2) We all know Gilbert holds the Atlantic Basin record for mb with 888. What are the records for measured windspeads?

Never thought I'd see a season like this. Cat 5 "W" storm?

madness
313. xkcd
Hey, someone just brought up an interesting point -- if they retire "Hurricane Alpha", what replaces it?

Maybe the radio phonetic alphabet, or numerals.
30 mile wide F-4 tornado, truly scary
I think I heard the actual name of the 'Alpha' Storm would be 05Alpha. So even if there is an 'Alpha' storm next season, it could still be called 'Alpha' but it would actually be '06Alpha'.

Oh my goodness. Went to bed last night it was a cat 2, woke up this morning and it is a super cat 5. This is unbeliveable!
THIS THING IS A FREAKIN' MONSTER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 884 MB?!?! HOOOOOLLLLLYYYyy S***!!!!!!!!
884mb we broke the record what a night what a year

86mb drop in 11 hrs thats crazy
I'll bet all the NHC forecasters and all the recon mission people are left speechless...Wilma took their breath away...
Wake Dr. Masters!!! Can't wait to hear what he has to say about this. Anyone with new models, links on this one?
can somebody pse xplain what an eywall replacement cycle is and what it means in relation to intensity?
We are all speechless in here Quakeman, and our knowledge is VERY limited. Just imagine what they must be feeling in there. Dang, wish I was there with them!
Windymiller,

Check out this link from NOAA re: eyewall replacement


Link
324. Maui
So according to the plan of the day from the NHC site, it doesn't look like they plan to have an aircraft back in there for 12 hours. Am I reading that wrong?

Since the pressure still seems to be in a freefall (somehow) it would have been interesting to see how much lower it would have gone.
scaldisnoel - many thanks!
326. Maui
So now this season has number 1, 4 and 5 on the strongest hurricances of all time. Pretty insane.

Here's hoping when she finally hits she's alot tamer than 4 and 5 were.
When do you think Dr Masters will update this blog now that the 5am is out and this is a record setting storm?
Infrequent poster here, (though I lurk alot).
1) It does seem as though storms this year are undergoing remarkable intensification over a short timeframe. From cat 1 to cat 5...in what...the space of 12 or so hours? Also, the eye at only 2 miles wide...I've never heard of such a small eye. Is this unprecedented?

2) I know the SSTs in the southeastern gulf are cooler than in the carribean...but, anyone know how cool is "cooler"? And what intensity can those water temps support? I know it depends on how rapidly the storm moves over those cooler waters, and whether it has to deal with eyewall replacement while over them.

3) Thanks scaldisnoel for the link about eyewall replacement. So...since the eyewall is tiny, we can expect eyewall replacement sometime today? I assume since it's still over very warm water, it'll have a chance to recover after some weakening, before it roars into the gulf...

4)Is there a rough gauge as to how often eyewall replacement happens? I guess we can hope that one happens just as Wilma hits the cooler waters, in which case it will have a harder time re-strengthening once the cycle is complete...does that make sense?

5) Also, anyone have a theory as to whether this will track up the east coast once it moves off florida? The models seem to push it away from the coast, though Bastardi seems to think the NE is in for a hammering.

6) How long will it take for S. Florida to evacuate? Long pennisula, few north-south roads, and a large population... many of whom are elderly. Sounds scary to me. I'm thinking people should start evacuating today, though I'm no expert (I didn't even spend the night in a Holiday Inn Express LOL).

So many questions.... Good thing I don't post too often! Great site by the way!
gamma...i suppose even Dr. Masters needs a little sleep from time to time! That said, I cant wait to read his next post!!
330. dcw
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

WHAT????!??????!

WHERE DID THAT COME FROM????

*reconsiders exacuation plan* JEEZ!
331. dcw
Could someone PLEASE tell me how this is possible? They said dreaded pinhole eye...now we know why. Holy God.
Good morning DCW, are you just getting up also. Your words were my expression about an hour ago when I got up also.
Unbelievable! Gamma
Wilma goes from a tropical storm to a Cat. 5 in 18 hours? If this isn't a record, it's gotta be close...and 884 mb pressure?

Gee, if 2005 is any indicator, upcoming hurricane seasons will be mind-boggling!
334. dcw
I heard them talking on the radio (you know, lying in bed groggy), and hear "...is now a Catrgoey 5 hurricane"

At that point I literally plow through my bedroom door, curse my computer's slow booting, and simultaneously watch TWC and NHC with my jaw dropping...because this terrifys me. Three times this season I have called a storm a potential "monster". Three times, they have undergone unbeleiveable deepening that same night. Remaind me not to do that again...breaking Gilbert in NOVEMBER??? Records broken so far:

Most Named Storms (21, tie, 1933)
Most Hurricanes (12, tie, 1969)
Strongest in Atlantic Basin (884mb)
Third Category 5 in a season [with Rita and Katrina]
Most rapid deepening (76mb/11h, 54mb/4h)
First W storm
First W hurricane
First W major hurricane

Any more to add?
335. dcw
WOW. Wilma has dropped from a 998mb TS monday morning to...this...in 36 hours! 114mb in 36 hours, or more than 3mb/hour for 3 days on average.

:O :O :O :O :O :O :O :O :O :O :O
You forgot to add "Smallest Eye (2 N MI)" to that list...
It's unbelieveable how small that eye is. Look at this! Link
Actually I meant to post it directly like this:

njsammy: I'm not an expert, but a student, so these are comments re your questions.
1. Per Master's posting yest'd, he commented he had never seen an eye as small as what it was at that time 7 nautical miles, so let's what he sees when he posts this AM. Rapid decrease in pressure is an indicator that strengthening on the way and I believe we have seen a number of storms this year have rapid drops in pressure.

2) you can see the SST (sea surface temps) on the wunderground tropical opening page. Though I have difficulty interpretting the colors. (Vince formed under lower SST--such that some were quite surprised that those temps could support a hurricane. I, too, would like to know if increased speed decreases the vulnerability of storms to lower SST--and effect on eye wall replacements. Hope we'll see some comments on this from Dr. Masters.

3)I hear that storms of this extreme strength do not maintain strength for long time, but seems like some of the storms this year are not abiding by the "rules." Predictions are that the storm will loose strength as it moves north and then sharp northeast (steered by that California low charging east).

4)I hope Dr. M will address this in his next posting. Question I'd like to see answered, too.

4) Track takes it FAST NE through FL into ocean. I too wonder if it will keep charging ahead in that direction. Would like to know where the "Bermuda High" will be at that time and whether there will be a retrograding front, to pull the storm back to the N or NW.

5) Let's hope the experts are correct in that the storm will decrease in strength before it hits FLA. Don't know how fast suspect Path could be evacuated. I too worry about the elderly and those with limited means to get out of harms way. NHC forecast has it moving from just west of Cuba on Saturday to way into Ocean by Monday--that's pretty fast. Landfalling hurricanes produce tornados on the east side (I think) and wonder if the quickness of the storm will increase/decrease tornado concerns.

NHC 5 am discussion does advise: This is probably the lowest minimum pressure ever observed in the Atlantic
Basin and is followed by the 888 mb minimum pressure associated with hurricane Gilbert in 1988. However...one must be very careful before it is declared a record minimum pressure until a full and detailed calibration of the instruments and calculations is performed. So please do not jump into conclusions yet...be patient.

I have seen in previous postings (and perhaps official NHC info) that there have been problems with some of the equipment used to assess these storms.

SORRY so long a posting.





















6) How long will it take for S. Florida to evacuate? Long pennisula, few north-south roads, and a large population... many of whom are elderly. Sounds scary to me. I'm thinking people should start evacuating today, though I'm no expert (I didn't even spend the night in a Holiday Inn Express LOL).

So many questions.... Good thing I don't post too often! Great site by the way!

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Posted By: seflagamma at 9:21 AM GMT on October
dcw, you forgot on your list: first season with a hurricane hitting Portugal
Well first tropical cyclone ever to make landfall on the Iberian Peninsula (passed just S of southern tip of Portugal and came ashore in extreme SW Spain).
dcw, i don't know if it is a record or not, but research to find out if Vince was the first to form into a hurricane at that lat/lon with that SST
Thanks hurigo...appreciate it!!
This seemed valid at the time, but now this comment from Dr. Masters appears very ironically comical:

"The GFDL is calling for a 922 mb Category 4 storm by Friday, but this forecast is probably overdone, as the GFDL has been consistently too aggressive with its intensity forecasts for Wilma."

Actually, just the opposite is true...the GFDL wasn't nearly aggressive enough!! Clearly NOBODY saw this coming...NOBODY thought it would get THIS strong THIS fast...oh I can't wait for Dr. Masters to show up!!!
345. dcw
"Might become a major hurricane in the Caribbean..."

Yep. Just might.
OMG..just got up to check....This is incredible!!! Cat 5

Checked out Accuweather and they have it coming in where Charley did...This is not good for me!
Of the 2004 storms, does the track and intensity of Wilma (thus far)most resemble Ivan (other then the fact that Ivan formed in western Atlantic.
I've heard mention of 2 other hurricanes hitting Europe...Debbie and something else, I forget...but what I thought was so amazing about Vince is that, while Debbie (and I believe the other storm) formed over the tropics...and just held on all the way across the atlantic...no small feat... Vince FORMED in such a bizarre place...anyone know what the SSTs were where it formed? I would think they were nowhere NEAR 80...or even 75 or 70 for that matter....that part of the Atlantic is far cooler than the Western Atlantic...I'm guessing water temps in the low-mid 60's at best...anyone know? What is going on this season??
Sherry B. All storms are different. I think Charlie was early Aug (perhaps sst higher off Fla) and C moved more slowly. Stay alert, pay attention to your local weather advisories, be prepared and have a plan. I know it is TERRIFYING now with this dramatic news this morning.
I almost chocked on my breakfast when i saw 884 mb...It was a Cat 2 at 11 PM!
Goodmorning to those just joining us. Appears a lot of us who went to bed with a Cat2 almost choked on our breakfast this morning to see what has happened over night!
I think Dr. Masters was saying something about them being in the 23-24C ranger where Vince was, where 26C is typically the minimum temperature needed to support tropical storms and hurricanes. I think that's what it was anyway...if I remember right.
NJSammy: for discussion of water temperatures in the region victor formed, just check Steve Gregory's blog. THere is an entry at the 9th of october called ** VINCE - EXCEPTION TO THE RULE ? - UPDATE - NEW PIX **
NJSammy: I don't know how to look up SST for Vince's birth. I do see that max winds 75 and lowest pressure 987

SOON what we have expected to be our experts on this blog will be waking up and we'll get better commentary and interpretations. (Sometimes though hard to tell the "experts" from the "enthusiasts" and appreciate the science and intuition.)
Woops...boy was I off...according to Dr. Masters, Vince formed in an area with SST around 24 C. If I have the translation from C to F right, that would mean 75 F...should have checked my info before posting....
Will check Dr. Gregory's post...thanks for the suggestion, rarearth...
hurigo...FYI...to find out the SST for vince, i went into Dr. Masters blog, and clicked on a link that said something like "view older entries"...
New to post, but been here for a while. Thanks for all of your insights and education!!!
This is my first hurricane season here. I am in Tampa. When should I worry about evacuating or not??? I don't know the distance, from point of impact, that I need to worry about taking off for a quick, very quick visit to my family in CA. lol My hubbie is very calm, TOO CALM for his own good. Don't trust his reasoning or understanding of the potential harm to us and my 4 year old daughter. Sorry so wordy. I will work on that. ;)
Incredible~ read discusion if ya hadn't. Check your own modelsLink. I gotta get busy.
HE HAS A NEW POST!!! LET'S ALL GO SEE!!!!
Gulp! Woke up, booted up, blinked - thought colour coding on wild Wilma's forecast track had gone haywire. Woke up double quick when the lilac shade matched the Cat 5 figure. Am following blog and I too can hardly wait to see what Dr Masters has to say about Wilma's awesome statistics. One can only hope Wilma fizzles out somehow... but methinks not :(
This all feels like it happened yesterday, but its
2008.

2006; was a slow season, no Hurricanes hit the CONUS

2007; was semi-Active, 2 CAT 5 Landfalls, Hurricanes Dean and Felix in Central America.

2008; Very Active so far, 2 Hurricanes in July,
with Hurricane Bertha at CAT 3 in the middle of nowhere. Right now Hurricane Dolly is in the Gulf of Mexico nearing Texas.
Up to 2012 now, CybrTeddy.

2008 was an active year with the second costliest hurricane on record (Ike). Gustav also made landfall in Louisiana.

2009 featured no hurricane landfalls.

2010 featured no hurricane landfalls.

2011 featured Hurricane Irene, the sixth costliest hurricane on record. It devastated portions of the Northeast and Eastern Seaboard, but only made landfall as a Category 1.

The major hurricane landfall streak--or lack thereof--continues into 2012. I wonder what this season will hold?
Spoiler alert Cody - worse than Wilma in terms of damage.
how come some people have join dates and some dont?