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Winter's Back!

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:50 PM GMT on December 30, 2014

WEATHERINTEL SERVICES
30-DEC-14 (Next Update FRIDAY – JAN 2)

By Steve Gregory for vacationing Jeff Masters


ARCTIC AIR OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE NATION

Arctic air is surging southward from the Rockies eastward, sending Temps below normal for the first time in over a month. Well below normal Temps are expected to dominate much of the nation east of the Rockies for the next 2 weeks – with significant storm systems impacting the eastern half of the nation every 6-8 days. The only exception will be over Florida where Temperatures are still expected to remain on the warm side of normal.

A large scale long wave TROF now dominates the nation, with the center of the Polar Vortex over Hudson Bay, while a High pressure ridge continues to build over the eastern most Pacific into Alaska. This upper air pattern will provide a colder flow from the arctic southward into the central US this week, and into the easternmost states by next week. Although this is a far more seasonable pattern, all global models continue to show a highly progressive flow which will cause significant oscillations in Temperature anomalies during the next 2 weeks, with anomalies varying from 'just' a few degrees below normal to 20 degrees below normal.

A small but potent short wave TROF is now plunging southward over Nevada and will trigger a Low pressure system over the SW Deserts by tomorrow, with snow possible from near Las Vegas into the higher elevations of Arizona. This system will then move into Texas by the end of the week where it will intensify and then head for the Great Lakes region over the weekend. For over a week now, the models have been extremely consistent on the projected track for this storm, with the storm center tracking from the eastern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley thru the interior of New England. This should result in mostly rain in the Boston-Washington DC coastal corridor, while heavy snows fall inland.

The global model runs have been fairly consistent in their upper air pattern forecasts, but there continues to be a significant difference between the models for time periods beyond 8 days. In general, the GFS has been the ‘coldest’ of the models, as both the longer range ’New’ GFS (which goes operational mid-month) and the European models show stronger systems heading eastward from the Pacific which then force a breakdown in the Ridge near the West coast – ultimately bringing a milder flow aloft into the central US and stronger storm formations east of the Rockies.

As the models continue to struggle with the El Niño like flow pattern that continues to exert itself over the Pacific basin upper air pattern, a number of forecast tools show the EPAC ridge breaking down by mid Jan. For this reason, there is a reasonable chance of seeing Temps return to near and eventually above normal levels during the second half of JAN.



CLICK IMAGE to open full size image in new window

Fig 1: The various global model forecasts valid on the evening of JAN 09 ... There are fairly significant differences in model projections at 10 Days out with the operational GFS showing a relatively weak short wave in the northern Rockies, while the ‘New’ GFS and EURO models show a much more potent system in the west. (Qualitatively, the ‘New’ GFS appears to have a lot in common with the ECMWF for forecasts beyond 1 week...)




Fig 2: The GFS Ensemble forecasts for 5 Teleconnection indices. Curiously, the AO, NAO and PNA do NOT support long term cold in the eastern half of the nation (A positive AO and NAO imply above normal Temps over the eastern US – while a Negative PNA implies mild weather for the southeastern US). However, 2 other, lessor known teleconnections (the WPO and EPO) do support cold weather in the east. Nonetheless, having such inconsistencies between teleconnections implies higher than normal uncertainty for forecasts beyond 8-12 days out.




Fig 3: The MJO has become better organized and somewhat stronger over the last few days as it moves slowly eastward over Indonesia and the Philippines. Forecasts (especially those from the GFS ensemble run) call for the enhanced phase of the MJO to propagate eastward and strengthen some over the next 2 weeks. IF correct, this will place it in the western Pacific in 2 weeks – and supports a warmer pattern over the US during the 2nd half of JAN..




Fig 4: The Temperature anomaly forecast is based STRICTLY on the GFS MOS model data output which calls for below normal Temperatures nationwide – with the exception of Florida. Anomalies will vary considerably every few days due to the approaching storm system this weekend.




Fig 5: The Week 2 Temperature ANOMALY forecast is based on the 12Z run of the HI-RES operational GFS (80%) integrated with the 00Z EURO model (5%), the 12Z GFS ensemble mean (5%) and the ‘NEW’ GFS (10%) - using the projected pattern, along with the GFS surface and 850mb Temperature forecasts. Some Temp forecasts are adjusted for known or expected anomalous thermal patterns and/or projected storm systems. Though well below normal Temps will dominate the eastern half of the nation (except for Florida…) the fairly progressive pattern, especially in the southern stream, introduces greater uncertainty for Week 2 Temperature anomalies. However, based on much better consistency from run-to-run for the last week, Confidence in the general Temp anomaly pattern and its absolute values, is near average for this far out in time, with a rating of ‘3’ on a Scale of ‘1-5’ for both metrics.

✭ The next Weather Update will be issued FRIDAY – JAN 2

Steve

NOTES:

1. A GENERAL Glossary of Weather Terms can be found HERE

2. Another Glossary of weather terms is available HERE

2 Week Temperature Forecast Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Didn't quite make it through December with the Citrus. Took them in at 11PM. Low this morning in the garden was 19, probably colder at grass level. Low on my porch with concrete base and solid roof was in the upper 20s and citrus probably would have made it. Two test plants did but I didn't want to risk all winter's lemons and oranges.

Seasonably chilly at the hockey Winter Classic. Around 40F but dry with a breeze so no ice problems I could see. But it looked like conditions were uneven and there were more missed passes than usual.. precision hockey didn't seem to work this time for either side. But great great game, in doubt to the last seconds. It was cold in the stands but I had the sun at my back so no glare issues for me.

I worried for weeks in November about horrible weather, 33F and sluicing rain or 18F in an arctic outbreak with howling winds. Neither happened though the cold signal two weeks ago was something to notice.
Quoting 497. georgevandenberghe:



No fire ants, coral snakes or alligators in the DC metro area yet.
I think if a Giant snake were to get loose in Rock creek park last year the cold would have likely killed it.These species can however survive the summers here.
Quoting 457. Tornado6042008X:

Is that a neighborhood?!

No doubt its HOME to a lot of people!
Looks like a lot of those snow forecast are going to fail big time if this keeps up.2010-2011 all over again!.

The seasonably cold weather that we are now experiencing will give way to warmer than normal conditions by the weekend as a storm tracks to our north. Its associated cold front will then usher in another round of dry, colder than normal weather next week. That air mass could bring us some of the coldest air we’ve seen this winter.

Temperatures should creep back to above normal by the middle of January.

The pattern is bad news for snow lovers. Our best chances of precipitation will coincide with our warmer interludes while our cold periods will likely be mostly dry.


Link
505. txjac
Quoting 504. washingtonian115:

Looks like a lot of those snow forecast are going to fail big time if this keeps up.2010-2011 all over again!.

The seasonably cold weather that we are now experiencing will give way to warmer than normal conditions by the weekend as a storm tracks to our north. Its associated cold front will then usher in another round of dry, colder than normal weather next week. That air mass could bring us some of the coldest air we’ve seen this winter.

Temperatures should creep back to above normal by the middle of January.

The pattern is bad news for snow lovers. Our best chances of precipitation will coincide with our warmer interludes while our cold periods will likely be mostly dry.


Link


Thats a shame, know that you love your snow. Keeping my fingers crossed that something happens to make it change. I like looking at pictures of snow
Quoting 504. washingtonian115:

Looks like a lot of those snow forecast are going to fail big time if this keeps up.2010-2011 all over again!.

The seasonably cold weather that we are now experiencing will give way to warmer than normal conditions by the weekend as a storm tracks to our north. Its associated cold front will then usher in another round of dry, colder than normal weather next week. That air mass could bring us some of the coldest air we’ve seen this winter.

Temperatures should creep back to above normal by the middle of January.

The pattern is bad news for snow lovers. Our best chances of precipitation will coincide with our warmer interludes while our cold periods will likely be mostly dry.


Link


2010-2011 was a very snowy winter for southern New England. Not for us though. I keep anticipating pattern changes.
Quoting 499. lickitysplit:



We get that all the time here in New Mexico. Basically from April - September these are pretty common. And frequently much stronger.


Well, out of the clear blue? Amazing!

Good night from the Old world in the new year. A lot of snow in certain parts of the Alps and in the Mediterranean. Won't bother you with it, here just a little entertaining video from a couple of thrilled folks (including Italian ladies in the back of the car) hitting the snowy roads this morning amid of palm trees in the uttermost south of Sicily (!) at Ragusa , exclaiming "look at the palm trees!" and so on until at last best wishes and kisses for the new year .... Imagine this to be Florida in snow, lol ...





Good night, I have to catch up with sleep, lol, and maybe an interesting stormy weekend is ahead of us mid Germany, apart from some black ice tomorrow exactly in the area of Frankfurt.



New York Times 1984

MASSAPEQUA, L.I., Aug. 4— Two alligators were trapped early this morning in Caroons Lake by a Federal game warden who tracked them down with a spotlight and used a noose to haul them out, the Nassau County police said.

The warden, Samuel Librandi of the Interior Department's Fish and Wildlife Service, undertook his hunt after repeated sightings of alligators in the lake, about 25 miles east of Manhattan.

''The past couple of weeks we were getting as many reports of alligator sightings as U.F.O. reports,'' said a police spokesman, Officer Anthony Sibiga.

Officer Sibiga said the 2 1/2-hour hunt by boat began at 1 A.M. He said the hunters found the alligators with a spotlight and looped snares around the animals' necks.

He said the alligators, one of them four feet long and the other two feet long, were taken to a Federal facility on Staten Island.
Quoting barbamz:

Sorry to learn about those extinguished native Carolina parakeets, Sar. They were beautiful birds.

German environmental protectionist are still undecided how to handle the increasing population of parakeets in Germany. For now they leave them in peace, but owners of gardens with fruit trees or people in houses near a noisy sleeping tree of those birds aren't exactly happy with Germany going tropical ...

Well, if you have any image of German wildlife in your mind, just forget it (at least in some parts). Would you have imagined to meet wild rheas in northern Germany? Probably not, but now when using the roads up there you should be careful not to crash into one or a couple of those big birds, lol:


Rheas crossing a road in northern Germany in 2012.

Wiki:
Distribution and habitat
Rheas are from South America only and are limited within the continent to Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay. They are grassland birds and both species prefer open land. The greater rheas live in open grasslands, pampas, and chaco woodlands. They prefer to breed near water and prefer lowlands, seldom going above 1,500 metres (4,900 ft). On the other hand, the lesser rhea will inhabit most shrubland, grassland, even desert salt puna up to 4,500 metres (14,800 ft).
A small population of rheas has emerged in northeastern Germany, after several couples escaped from an exotic meat farm near Luebeck in the late 1990s. Contrary to expectations, the large birds have adapted well to the conditions in the German countryside. Currently there is a population of well over 100 birds [German wiki: up to 300 birds now] in an area of 150 square kilometres (58 sq mi) between the river Wakenitz and the A20 motorway, slowly expanding eastwards. A monitoring system has been in place since 2008.


Of course, rheas aren't tropical birds as the parakeets are. Nevertheless seeing them in the wild in Germany is weird --- and especially hard for those farmers whose fields are harvested by a bunch of Rheas, lol.

They seemed like there were indeed beautiful birds, or at least from the stuffed specimens we have to look at now.

I would have bet you a million Euros that there were no wild Rheas in Germany. It makes you wonder exactly what an animal really needs to survive and apparently prosper. All of these things, your feral parakeets and mine, your Rheas, our nightmarish Snakehead Fish -



And our nightmarish plant, the Kudzu -



that can take over any vacant land and cover everything, including trees and railroads cars, all come from one of four sources:

1. They were introduced accidentally, like the Spearhead Fish (how would you like to see one of those on the end of your line?), which came from Asia in the ballast water from ships.

2. Imported for the exotic trade, which mean things like tropical fish, birds, and plants.

3. As an exotic food delicacy like your Rheas.

4. Imported to "solve" a problem that was caused by something else that caused another problem. The Kudzu was imported by the US government in the 1920's to stabilize soil because the existing cover was torn off to plant crops, but the slopes were too steep for crops. Kudzu does a great job of stabilizing hillsides...and everything else it comes in contact with. There's a story about a railroad line that stored about 50 boxcars on an abandoned spur line in the winter, when the Kudzu appears dead and has no leaves. They came back in the fall to retrieve the cars and, so the story goes, no one could find the tracks or the cars because everything was buried 50 feet deep in kudzu! :-)

I don't know what the answer is to these problems but these things are also another form of climate change and it seems like we need to do something about it.
I'm pleased to announce that my PWS is finally incorporated into the Wunderground PWS network at:

http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-stat ion/dashboard?ID=ICARTAGO5

Hopefully it will continue to report conditions on the slope of the Turrialba Volcano in Costa Rica.
While another inland rider fits what we've HAD... it might NOT fit what we have going for us come this time. So it's a curiosity - but again - will it even be there. -Pcroton
That Dust Devil Video is a classic!.So many things going on at the same time.
-A man in a cow suit running
-People jumping into the cars that were on display
-Person jumps into one of the vans and the door before it closes is hit by the bounce house
-Another man trying to save his tent and realizing its to late
-And another person grabbing onto the flying tent and failed miserably before being flung to the ground.
Quoting 513. washingtonian115:

That Dust Devil Video is a classic!.So many things going on at the same time.
-A man in a cow suit running
-People jumping into the cars that were on display
-Person jumps into one of the vans and the door before it closes is hit by the bounce house
-Another man trying to save his tent and realizing its to late
-And another person grabbing onto the flying tent and failed miserably before being flung to the ground.
I just want to say that I've been watching the video over and over again for the past hour and a half. Its absolutely priceless because of the exact things that you mentioned, especially the man being flung to the ground trying to catch the flying tent. Its by far the best dust devil video that I have seen in my life. :) Good thing no one was killed or seriously injured.
Oregon 39, FSU 20, what a way to go out, in flames....
Quoting 514. Tornado6042008X:

I just want to say that I've been watching the video over and over again for the past hour and a half. Its absolutely priceless because of the exact things that you mentioned, especially the man being flung to the ground trying to catch the flying tent. Its by far the best dust devil video that I have seen in my life. :) Good thing no one was killed or seriously injured.
That's the positive thing here :).It looked like a small movie skit.
It looked like the man in the cow suit was like "This is why I moved from Kansas" when he was putting his hands on his head.
That was the Chick-fil-A COW
Cool animation of Earth's Seasons.
South Florida needs a deep and prolonged freeze to whack those Burmese Pythons.

Quoting 502. washingtonian115:

I think if a Giant snake were to get loose in Rock creek park last year the cold would have likely killed it.These species can however survive the summers here.
Weather Armageddon over the city of Houston 1/2-1/3 2015?

From HGX:

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER ARIZONA WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE
JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL THEN TRY TO MERGE WITH THE
SUB- TROPICAL JET BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE JET WILL END UP
TAKING A SPLIT STRUCTURE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD PUT
SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN A RRQ AND A LFQ (BOTH AREAS SUPPORTING UPPER
LEVEL LIFT). AT THE SAME TIME THE GFS IS SHOWING PVA CROSSING
OVERHEAD AT 500 MB AND A SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTH (SOUTHEAST TEXAS
BEING ON THE WEST SIDE). THE EURO SHOWS THE SAME SPLIT BUT A TAD
FURTHER NORTH. THE EURO ALSO DOES NOT SHOW AS MUCH PVA CROSSING
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS THE GFS DOES. PWAT VALUES ARE ALSO FORECASTED
BY THE NAM AND GFS TO STAY AROUND 1.60" (+2 SD COMPARED TO
NORMAL). WIDESPREAD LIFT... PLENTY OF MOISTURE... AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY ALL ADD UP TO EQUAL RAIN SATURDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST AND PUSH
AWAY FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS SATURDAY. BEHIND THE SYSTEM A PACIFIC
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AND TEMPORARY CLEARING WILL COMMENCE.
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTH AND DRAG A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING. BOTH GFS AND EURO SHOW A ~1045 MB HIGH MOVING INTO
KANSAS MONDAY MORNING. HAVE TRENDED MONDAY LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN
DUE TO AMPLIFICATION OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AND RELATIVELY CLEAR
SKIES.

It would help if someone could explain to me what HGX is talking about.
Another year has come and gone here in Wilmington...

- Highest maximum temperature was 97F/36C
- Lowest minimum temperature was 14F/-10C
- 25 record maximum temperatures
- 13 record minimum temperatures

Quoting 521. pureet1948:

Weather Armageddon over the city of Houston 1/2-1/3 2015?

From HGX:

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER ARIZONA WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE
JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL THEN TRY TO MERGE WITH THE
SUB- TROPICAL JET BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE JET WILL END UP
TAKING A SPLIT STRUCTURE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD PUT
SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN A RRQ AND A LFQ (BOTH AREAS SUPPORTING UPPER
LEVEL LIFT). AT THE SAME TIME THE GFS IS SHOWING PVA CROSSING
OVERHEAD AT 500 MB AND A SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTH (SOUTHEAST TEXAS
BEING ON THE WEST SIDE). THE EURO SHOWS THE SAME SPLIT BUT A TAD
FURTHER NORTH. THE EURO ALSO DOES NOT SHOW AS MUCH PVA CROSSING
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS THE GFS DOES. PWAT VALUES ARE ALSO FORECASTED
BY THE NAM AND GFS TO STAY AROUND 1.60" (+2 SD COMPARED TO
NORMAL). WIDESPREAD LIFT... PLENTY OF MOISTURE... AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY ALL ADD UP TO EQUAL RAIN SATURDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST AND PUSH
AWAY FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS SATURDAY. BEHIND THE SYSTEM A PACIFIC
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AND TEMPORARY CLEARING WILL COMMENCE.
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTH AND DRAG A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING. BOTH GFS AND EURO SHOW A ~1045 MB HIGH MOVING INTO
KANSAS MONDAY MORNING. HAVE TRENDED MONDAY LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN
DUE TO AMPLIFICATION OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AND RELATIVELY CLEAR
SKIES.

It would help if someone could explain to me what HGX is talking about.

Favorable ingredients for heavy rainfall across the area late Friday night into Saturday morning before drying out as a weak cold front moves through during the afternoon hours. A stronger cold front will move through Sunday morning.
Quoting PedleyCA:
Oregon 39, FSU 20, what a way to go out, in flames....
59 now, and I can't even come up with an weather analogy...
Beatdown over, they said the Rose Bowl record was 52. well now it is 59.
Quoting 523. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Favorable ingredients for heavy rainfall across the area late Friday night into Saturday morning before drying out as a weak cold front moves through during the afternoon hours. A stronger cold front will move through Sunday morning.


Does this lead up to widespread severe thunderstorms
Quoting 510. sar2401:


They seemed like there were indeed beautiful birds, or at least from the stuffed specimens we have to look at now.

I would have bet you a million Euros that there were no wild Rheas in Germany. It makes you wonder exactly what an animal really needs to survive and apparently prosper. All of these things, your feral parakeets and mine, your Rheas, our nightmarish Snakehead Fish -



And our nightmarish plant, the Kudzu -



that can take over any vacant land and cover everything, including trees and railroads cars, all come from one of four sources:

1. They were introduced accidentally, like the Spearhead Fish (how would you like to see one of those on the end of your line?), which came from Asia in the ballast water from ships.

2. Imported for the exotic trade, which mean things like tropical fish, birds, and plants.

3. As an exotic food delicacy like your Rheas.

4. Imported to "solve" a problem that was caused by something else that caused another problem. The Kudzu was imported by the US government in the 1920's to stabilize soil because the existing cover was torn off to plant crops, but the slopes were too steep for crops. Kudzu does a great job of stabilizing hillsides...and everything else it comes in contact with. There's a story about a railroad line that stored about 50 boxcars on an abandoned spur line in the winter, when the Kudzu appears dead and has no leaves. They came back in the fall to retrieve the cars and, so the story goes, no one could find the tracks or the cars because everything was buried 50 feet deep in kudzu! :-)

I don't know what the answer is to these problems but these things are also another form of climate change and it seems like we need to do something about it.



When snakeheads escaped into the Potomac estuary and became thoroughly established I thought we could at least sanitize the name and call them

"Southern Pike".

and establish an angling fishery for them. Alas they don't bite nearly as well as largemouth bass (which
also thrive in the lower Potomac) and are fairly hard and frustrating to catch. They would be good eating but I wouldn't eat anything that lived in the Potomac.

Kudzu BTW is hardy in the entire DC metro area including the NW 'burbs just outside the beltway.
Quoting 519. Climate175:




One can hope.
Cloudy and cool start to the new year. 45/59 with some spits of light rain this evening. Eyeballing it I'd say 0.05" or so and I'll check my rain gauge at midnight.
Quoting 527. pureet1948:



Does this lead up to widespread severe thunderstorms

Widespread severe thunderstorms? Unlikely. But the Storm Prediction Center has placed Houston in a Marginal risk for severe weather late Friday night into early Saturday morning, indicating that isolated severe storms cannot be ruled out.

Quoting 504. washingtonian115:

Looks like a lot of those snow forecast are going to fail big time if this keeps up.2010-2011 all over again!.

The seasonably cold weather that we are now experiencing will give way to warmer than normal conditions by the weekend as a storm tracks to our north. Its associated cold front will then usher in another round of dry, colder than normal weather next week. That air mass could bring us some of the coldest air we’ve seen this winter.

Temperatures should creep back to above normal by the middle of January.

The pattern is bad news for snow lovers. Our best chances of precipitation will coincide with our warmer interludes while our cold periods will likely be mostly dry.


Link


All the teleconnections are pretty much unfavorable. Positive NAO/AO, negative to neutral PNA, and MJO traversing through unfavorable octants. Maybe after two weeks something will happen. Maybe.


Our best bet is to hope for clipper systems to pass through when the cold air is already present.
533. vis0

Quoting 484. Tropicsweatherpr:

Nice. But what is your reasoning to do that forecast with the atmosphere not cooperating?
Short reply:: the device i state is influencing weather (the ml-d) plus aGW/GCS is causing a back up of weather patterns over land in this case USofA that back up is not allowing ENSO areas to biosphericlly connect (made up word) the closer the ENSO area is to the land mass / USofA.

Long reply ::
The long reply is on Tropicsweatherpr ENSO blog, it too long to add to my too ml-d much posting on Masters. Should be reply #495 or #496 ON
Tropicsweatherpr ENSO blog.
---------------------------------------------
Good news for most, bad for some, i'll start removing my blogbytes this weekend as i've been asked by family to help fix 2 homes in Pa. in late Feb/ March. (i thought too cold but that's what they asked) That means my thought to remove most of my blogbytes just before spring 2015 has been moved forward to this weekend. i'm removing last posts first. Its been fun blogging, nothing against WxU  its my style to give anywhere i blog 8 yrs to ask questions, WxU got 8-12 yrs.  Here the bad news i'll still be posting comments on other blogs and keep 1 of my WxU blogbyte open on my blog.


532. Drakoen
Something needs to happen by late January because by February the clock starts to tick faster and faster.Only extraordinary Winters can pull off March snowstorms.Last year was a exception to the rule.2 major snow storms with several small events in between.I doubt that happens again for the D.C area this year.
Quoting 531. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Widespread severe thunderstorms? Unlikely. But the Storm Prediction Center has placed Houston in a Marginal risk for severe weather late Friday night into early Saturday morning, indicating that isolated severe storms cannot be ruled out.




Bummer.
Quoting 501. georgevandenberghe:

Didn't quite make it through December with the Citrus. Took them in at 11PM. Low this morning in the garden was 19, probably colder at grass level. Low on my porch with concrete base and solid roof was in the upper 20s and citrus probably would have made it. Two test plants did but I didn't want to risk all winter's lemons and oranges.

Seasonably chilly at the hockey Winter Classic. Around 40F but dry with a breeze so no ice problems I could see. But it looked like conditions were uneven and there were more missed passes than usual.. precision hockey didn't seem to work this time for either side. But great great game, in doubt to the last seconds. It was cold in the stands but I had the sun at my back so no glare issues for me.

I worried for weeks in November about horrible weather, 33F and sluicing rain or 18F in an arctic outbreak with howling winds. Neither happened though the cold signal two weeks ago was something to notice.


And I think it's hard to grow citrus in the Florida Panhandle...
Hey guys Happy New Year

Big question WHERE THE HELL IS THE COLD FRONTS!!!

In Cayman normally Cold Fronts normally arrive in Nov and Cayman start getting the good strong cold fronts in mid Dec so far I see very very little fronts in fact maybe about 3 and none are recognisable (except our first and that was rain with interaction with TS Hanna). Normally we would have about maybe 10 or 15 fronts by Jan 1 and 1/4 to 1/2 of them would be strong.

I hope we start getting them soon.

I hope we can get cool like what we had that winter season of 2009/2010 (I think it was then) (that the season that Florida and Cuba had iguanas falling out of trees and just about stiff as a brick) I wish we could break our records again (coldest)
538. beell






SPIA Index Page
Sperry-Piltz Ice Accumulation Index (Wiki)

18Z soundings seems to indicate a deep enough surface freezing layer to result in more sleet than ice. Most of the ice accumulation is scheduled to occur tomorrow. Forecast winds are on the light side. Both of those items would be a plus if true.

The obstinate player in all of this is the upper low-currently reorganizing itself over the far southwestern US before heading out into the south central Plains. All forecasts for W central TX and beyond are suspect until it begins to move.

Quoting 534. washingtonian115:



532. Drakoen
Something needs to happen by late January because by February the clock starts to tick faster and faster.Only extraordinary Winters can pull off March snowstorms.Last year was a exception to the rule.2 major snow storms with several small events in between.I doubt that happens again for the D.C area this year.
Some local news are calling 15-30 inches of snow.
I love the current pattern. Big, sturdy ridge centered over the Bahamas keeping me warm and sunny! In fact, we had a rare December thunderstorm here yesterday during the afternoon hours as the unusually warm conditions for the past few weeks allowed for a build up of heat and instability. I didn't mind it at all actually.
Quoting 538. beell:







SPIA Index Page
Sperry-Piltz Ice Accumulation Index (Wiki)

18Z soundings seems to indicate a deep enough surface freezing layer to result in more sleet than ice. Most of the ice accumulation is scheduled to occur tomorrow. Forecast winds are on the light side. Both of those items would be a plus if true.

The obstinate player in all of this is the upper low-currently reorganizing itself over the far southwestern US before heading out into the south central Plains. All forecasts for W central TX and beyond are suspect until it begins to move.


Norman has had a time with tomorrow's forecast. A few days ago looked like the ice would arrive NY Eve and today. Now overnight and into tomorrow a.m. - a full day later. Late afternoon they reduced the estimations of icy precip for central OK and withdrew some counties from the winter weather advisory. That's in OK. South of Wichita Falls there's a winter weather warning. I hear what you are saying. A wait and see proposition. Thanks for your take on the L that's been taking its time. And for Sperry Piltz Ice info. Bookmarked. :)
Sunrise, Sunset / Sunrise, Sunset / Swiftly Fly the Years
By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 6:01 PM CST on January 01, 2015


Here’s an easy prediction for 2015. When we arrive at March 1, 2015, it will have been 30 years since there was a month where the global average surface temperature was below the 20th century average. Since we are creatures who like our milestones in years and decades and numbers divisible by 5, 10, 25 and 50 (like our currency), 30 years is the definition of climate in the standard of climate as the average weather. The National Climatic Data Center goes to some effort to strictly define “normal” in terms of 30-year averages. With the arrival of March 1, 2015, all of the months used in the calculation of current climate will have been warmer than the climate of my youth, the previous generation, our grandparent’s generation, Howard Taft’s, Teddy Roosevelt’s, indeed, Benjamin Harrison’s.

You might recall that in my unfashionable way, I objected to calling the 30-year average that ended in 2010 the “new” normal, because of the intuitive notion that normal is, well, what we might expect. And what we might expect is that the temperature will continue to rise, and not stay the same as the previous 30 years.


Well I'm about to sign off for tonight.But before I do may I remind some of you young people to never EVER bring back some of these horrors?.
The middle to latter portions of next week might offer the coldest air of the season for many as a persistent negative EPO allows for a number of arctic highs to continue dropping down into the U.S. Verbatim, the 0z GFS parallel shows air temperatures 35-40F below average across the Midwest, equating to highs well below zero. Wind chills dip to -40F to -50F Wednesday morning. Lows on Thursday morning drop into the teens all the way down into central Mississippi and Alabama as the air spreads south and east, with highs struggling to reach above freezing in the same areas.

Looking toward mid-January, much of the U.S. should moderate as the EPO rises towards neutral and positive territories. In addition, the MJO will be progressing across octants 5-6, which is generally a warm signal. I maintain that the pattern will flip after late month with a -AO, both as a consequence of the ongoing stratospheric warming event and the MJO's further progression into the West Hemisphere.


Quoting 543. washingtonian115:

Well I'm about to sign off for tonight.But before I do may I remind some of you young people to never EVER bring back some of these horrors?.

All I care about is the guy on the right. He's cute.
Quoting 545. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The middle to latter portions of next week might offer the coldest air of the season for many as a persistent negative EPO allows for a number of arctic highs to continue dropping down into the U.S. Verbatim, the 0z GFS parallel shows air temperatures 35-40F below average across the Midwest, equating to highs well below zero. Wind chills dip to -40F to -50F Wednesday morning. Lows on Thursday morning drop into the teens all the way down into central Mississippi and Alabama as the air spreads south and east, with highs struggling to reach above freezing in the same areas.

Looking toward mid-January, much of the U.S. should moderate as the EPO rises towards neutral and positive territories. In addition, the MJO will be progressing across octants 5-6, which is generally a warm signal. I maintain that the pattern will flip after late month with a -AO, both as a consequence of the ongoing stratospheric warming event and the MJO's further progression into the West Hemisphere.




Deja-vu anyone?
Quoting 545. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The middle to latter portions of next week might offer the coldest air of the season for many as a persistent negative EPO allows for a number of arctic highs to continue dropping down into the U.S. Verbatim, the 0z GFS parallel shows air temperatures 35-40F below average across the Midwest, equating to highs well below zero. Wind chills dip to -40F to -50F Wednesday morning. Lows on Thursday morning drop into the teens all the way down into central Mississippi and Alabama as the air spreads south and east, with highs struggling to reach above freezing in the same areas.

Looking toward mid-January, much of the U.S. should moderate as the EPO rises towards neutral and positive territories. In addition, the MJO will be progressing across octants 5-6, which is generally a warm signal. I maintain that the pattern will flip after late month with a -AO, both as a consequence of the ongoing stratospheric warming event and the MJO's further progression into the West Hemisphere.


12z ECMWF model had ridiculously low 500mb heights all the way down the east coast next week Wed-Thurs.

EDIT: Okay maybe not ridiculously low but still very low indeed. About 4950 meters over northern VA, my area.
Quoting vis0:

Short reply:: the device i state is influencing weather (the ml-d) plus aGW/GCS is causing a back up of weather patterns over land in this case USofA that back up is not allowing ENSO areas to biosphericlly connect (made up word) the closer the ENSO area is to the land mass / USofA.

Long reply ::
The long reply is on Tropicsweatherpr ENSO blog, it too long to add to my too ml-d much posting on Masters. Should be reply #495 or #496 ON
Tropicsweatherpr ENSO blog.
---------------------------------------------
Good news for most, bad for some, i'll start removing my blogbytes this weekend as i've been asked by family to help fix 2 homes in Pa. in late Feb/ March. (i thought too cold but that's what they asked) That means my thought to remove most of my blogbytes just before spring 2015 has been moved forward to this weekend. i'm removing last posts first. Its been fun blogging, nothing against WxU its my style to give anywhere i blog 8 yrs to ask questions, WxU got 8-12 yrs. Here the bad news i'll still be posting comments on other blogs and keep 1 of my WxU blogbyte open on my blog.
Vis, why remove any of your previous posts because you are going to help some people fix up some houses? You know that we don't always agree with ml-d thing but I always enjoy reading your ideas about things and how you think the weather works. It seems like, considering the amount of work you've put into some of your blogs, it would be a real shame not have them available for people that want to read them. Besides, some of them are a real hoot, and we can use some humor around here sometimes. I hope you're reconsider your plan, I really do.
Quoting 547. Drakoen:



Deja-vu anyone?

The pattern did flip during late December, no? Although, admittedly, a few days later than I thought it would (my original prediction was the 20th-22nd).
Quoting 550. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The pattern did flip during late December, no? Although, admittedly, a few days later than I thought it would (my original prediction was the 20th-22nd).


We were suppose to head into a pattern favorable for snow after mid-December which didn't come to pass. The only thing we seem to be getting is cold and dry or warm and rainy. The pattern still looks progressive as it did in November. The teleconnections show the NAO dominated in the positive region mostly even though we had a positive PNA. The AO had little negative dips but much of it was neutral or positive. Last winter we have a severe negative NAO/AO, literally off the charts.
Quoting Drakoen:


Deja-vu anyone?
It was supposed to be taking a dive after the 15th. Looks like it's doing just the opposite now. It took a little dive in the week after Christmas and now it's starting back up again. So far, the NAO predictions haven't been working out too well.


Quoting 552. sar2401:

It was supposed to be taking a dive after the 15th. Looks like it's doing just the opposite now. It took a little dive in the week after Christmas and now it's starting back up again. So far, the NAO predictions haven't been working out too well.


A lot of teleconnections typically don't.

The most we know is like... the trough/ridge stuff. Trough breeds downstream ridge, ridge breeds downstream trough. There are too many variables that not only do the models often fail to account for, but the human forecaster does as well.
I miss the 500 mile foot-plus snow swaths from the Euro. One can dream.
The week after next looks a bit intriguing.
Quoting 555. Climate175:

A way Far out GFS.
Quoting 556. Tornado6042008X:

Long way out but believe it or not this is the 5th straight run the GFS shows a system/trough like that at that time frame in that general area. I'm not saying I believe it will happen, for its 2 weeks in the future, but just something to watch for now.
It seems like there is a clipper that turns coastal and the GFS has been showing this for a while now, it is a bit far out but interesting.
Quoting 556. Tornado6042008X:

Long way out but believe it or not this is the 5th straight run the GFS shows a system/trough like that at that time frame in that general area. I'm not saying I believe it will happen, for its 2 weeks in the future, but just something to watch for now.
It's not even anything to watch, even. The operationals suck for long-range forecasting. I would advise complimenting them with ensembles and see what they're saying. If you begin to get some consistency with that, then a pattern change/storm becomes more credible. The Euro needs to agree as well for it to REALLY be noteworthy.
Quoting beell:






SPIA Index Page
Sperry-Piltz Ice Accumulation Index (Wiki)

18Z soundings seems to indicate a deep enough surface freezing layer to result in more sleet than ice. Most of the ice accumulation is scheduled to occur tomorrow. Forecast winds are on the light side. Both of those items would be a plus if true.

The obstinate player in all of this is the upper low-currently reorganizing itself over the far southwestern US before heading out into the south central Plains. All forecasts for W central TX and beyond are suspect until it begins to move.

Looks like a good time to be in Alabama compared to some parts of Texas. If you have a chance, take a look at the convective pattern down my way on Saturday and Sunday and let me know what you think. It seems like the dewpoints will be OK but the low will be moving too far north too fast to really set of anything strong, let alone severe. Never know down here in January though.
True.
Quoting KoritheMan:

A lot of teleconnections typically don't.

The most we know is like... the trough/ridge stuff. Trough breeds downstream ridge, ridge breeds downstream trough. There are too many variables that not only do the models often fail to account for, but the human forecaster does as well.
Indeed, and that's one of the reasons I think some of these supposed indicators like the AO and NAO, even ENSO in general, are given far too much weight as being reliable indicators of teleconnections when the evidence shows they're not. We like things we can convert to numbers, feed through a computer, and then put faith in them because they produce nice charts and well-organized tables. :-)
Quoting 558. KoritheMan:

It's not even anything to watch, even. The operationals suck for long-range forecasting. I would advise complimenting them with ensembles and see what they're saying. If you begin to get some consistency with that, then a pattern change/storm becomes more credible. The Euro needs to agree as well for it to REALLY be noteworthy.

I meant to watch as in fantasy like movies because it is visible on my computer screen. I DONT believe it yet. And it IS something to watch. You need to see whether it goes poof next run or not. ;).............................................:/

You know what nevermind I never said anything. What are YOU all looking at? You're the weird ones.

Like the continental ridge that took hold over the eastern United States last year from the middle of August (remember how everyone was talking about Cristobal, and how confident I was I'd get a good chase in? Yeah, THAT debacle. :\) through all of September. The GFS/GFS ensembles AND the Euro were remarkably consistent with the manifestation of a persistent 500 mb ridge over the New England/Ohio Valley area in the long range; it didn't bridge with the Bermuda/Azores ridge, hence why the storms we did get recurved, but it did occur. THAT'S how you signify and denote a pattern change. There were differences between the models, of course, but their general idea did come to pass.

I predicted that, by the way. Yes I'm being immodest. No I don't care.
Quoting 561. sar2401:

Indeed, and that's one of the reasons I think some of these supposed indicators like the AO and NAO, even ENSO in general, are given far too much weight as being reliable indicators of teleconnections when the evidence shows they're not. We like things we can convert to numbers, feed through a computer, and then put faith in them because they produce nice charts and well-organized tables. :-)


The teleconnections are not the problem, their definitions just describe a pattern. The model forecasts are the problem.
Quoting 563. KoritheMan:

Like the continental ridge that took hold over the eastern United States last year from the middle of August (remember how everyone was talking about Cristobal, and how confident I was I'd get a good chase in? Yeah, THAT debacle. :\) through all of September. The GFS/GFS ensembles AND the Euro were remarkably consistent with the manifestation of a persistent 500 mb ridge over the New England/Ohio Valley area in the long range; it didn't bridge with the Bermuda/Azores ridge, hence why the storms we did get recurved, but it did occur. THAT'S how you signify and denote a pattern change. There were differences between the models, of course, but their general idea did come to pass.

I predicted that, by the way. Yes I'm being immodest. No I don't care.

Thank you. Alright. Goodnight.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Hey guys Happy New Year

Big question WHERE THE HELL IS THE COLD FRONTS!!!

In Cayman normally Cold Fronts normally arrive in Nov and Cayman start getting the good strong cold fronts in mid Dec so far I see very very little fronts in fact maybe about 3 and none are recognisable (except our first and that was rain with interaction with TS Hanna). Normally we would have about maybe 10 or 15 fronts by Jan 1 and 1/4 to 1/2 of them would be strong.

I hope we start getting them soon.

I hope we can get cool like what we had that winter season of 2009/2010 (I think it was then) (that the season that Florida and Cuba had iguanas falling out of trees and just about stiff as a brick) I wish we could break our records again (coldest)
The SST's around you are still in the mid 80's, the trade winds are much calmer and, along with the rest of the general North American weather pattern, is progressive, with most fronts being controlled by a ridge and trough pattern that's going to keep cold fronts in a general west to east movement instead of diving down to the south. It was different back in November when we had a lot of fronts that had a lot of cold air and moved out into the Caribbean due to the polar influence of the remnants of those typhoons. We haven't hard any bouts of really cold weather since about December 10. It hasn't been overly warm, just about seasonally average, so I imagine that's what it means for you also. It's just that your seasonal averages, even in January, are still pretty hot in the absence of polar fronts. I don't see a change in this pattern for at least another couple of weeks, but change will come.
The side of me that loves extreme weather in me is so sad that I got no ice. But that common sense side I have (thankfully) is so happy I never went below freezing for a single minute. Had I of been below freezing all this time it would have been so devastating in these hills. I would have been stuck home. Always makes me remember of January 2007 when I was in SA, quarter inch of ice and below freezing for 36-48 hours. But I did enjoy messing with the ice back then. :)
Quoting Drakoen:


The teleconnections are not the problem, their definitions just describe a pattern. The model forecasts are the problem.
Right, but the model forecasts at least purport to describe some mathematical relationship between the output of the models and teleconnections. I'm saying we sometimes put too much faith in a change in the teleconnections being predicted by the models when while tending to push to the back burner those that don't predict such a change as having about 20 other reasons why they failed.
Quoting 564. Drakoen:



The teleconnections are not the problem, their definitions just describe a pattern. The model forecasts are the problem.
My point is that teleconnections are kinda... interconnected. For example, a warm ENSO/El Nino episode can herald snow and cold out east for the winter in the absence of other synoptic influences. But if the NAO edges toward the positive range, you get kind of an overriding mechanism. That's why we fail so hard with anticipating such events, particularly when that forecast pertains to entire seasons, like we're doing now.
This blog is very quiet tonight.
Quoting SouthCentralTx:
The side of me that loves extreme weather in me is so sad that I got no ice. But that common sense side I have (thankfully) is so happy I never went below freezing for a single minute. Had I of been below freezing all this time it would have been so devastating in these hills. I would have been stuck home. Always makes me remember of January 2007 when I was in SA, quarter inch of ice and below freezing for 36-48 hours. But I did enjoy messing with the ice back then. :)
No kidding. Our ice and snow storm of the past January was really terrible for those that lived in the country or had the misfortune of living on a hill or having to drive up a hill to get to work. I'm lucky that I live in a small town where everything is mostly flat, I have four-wheel drive, and I only lost power for about an hour. It was a beautiful scene for the three days we had had below freezing, but all the emergency calls on the scanner for those with no heat, no lights, no way to get their medicine, and no way to get power for thing like their oxygen generators didn't sound like it was much fun.
Wilmington NWS really dropped the temp forecast around here next Wed-Thur. I may not get above freezing one of those days. Looks like a quick hit and gone.

Quoting 545. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The middle to latter portions of next week might offer the coldest air of the season for many as a persistent negative EPO allows for a number of arctic highs to continue dropping down into the U.S. Verbatim, the 0z GFS parallel shows air temperatures 35-40F below average across the Midwest, equating to highs well below zero. Wind chills dip to -40F to -50F Wednesday morning. Lows on Thursday morning drop into the teens all the way down into central Mississippi and Alabama as the air spreads south and east, with highs struggling to reach above freezing in the same areas.

Looking toward mid-January, much of the U.S. should moderate as the EPO rises towards neutral and positive territories. In addition, the MJO will be progressing across octants 5-6, which is generally a warm signal. I maintain that the pattern will flip after late month with a -AO, both as a consequence of the ongoing stratospheric warming event and the MJO's further progression into the West Hemisphere.


Ugh. Hope not. It was still cold into April here last year. Hurt peach crop among others.

Quoting 547. Drakoen:



Deja-vu anyone?
Quoting tampabaymatt:


I love how the dry hole is right over S.W. Florida.
Today will make 37 days with only .05" of rain. Our last decent rain was on November 26th.

It will be interesting to see how long this dry stretch of weather will last here (Fort Myers). It is the dry season, but this is too dry even for the dry season.


Current Winter Radar
Information updates every 5 minutes. Note that mountain ranges may block radar signals, causing some areas of snowfall to not appear on the map.



its look like more snow on saturday now for the northeast adding more blue here
Cozzo Spadaro Italy, the southernmost point of Sicily, had their first freeze on record yesterday. Their record goes back to 1929.

Stazione meteorologica di Cozzo Spadaro
Pretty bold forecast. Also, look how specific it is. They know exactly what time it's going to snow and sleet and then change back to rain 36 hours in advance.

Saturday Night
Rain and snow before 10pm, then snow and sleet between 10pm and midnight, then rain after midnight. Low around 28. Southeast wind 8 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible

Could be a good one for the ski areas. They could use it. Boy I'd like to grab a couple of skate skis and get on some groomed Nordic trails. Probably warm ski wax snow. Good times.

SE winds - probably some decent waves on the Cape after the wind switch. Maybe some for the NH and ME breaks too.

Quoting 581. Sfloridacat5:

Pretty bold forecast. Also, look how specific it is. They know exactly what time it's going to snow and sleet and then change back to rain 36 hours in advance.

Saturday Night
Rain and snow before 10pm, then snow and sleet between 10pm and midnight, then rain after midnight. Low around 28. Southeast wind 8 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible


583. SuzK
Quoting 562. Tornado6042008X:

I meant to watch as in fantasy like movies because it is visible on my computer screen. I DONT believe it yet. And it IS something to watch. You need to see whether it goes poof next run or not. ;).............................................:/

You know what nevermind I never said anything. What are YOU all looking at? You're the weird ones.




There is a lot of long term forecast bashing going around. Unfortunately, not many are posting seasonal forecasts and I really miss that. Enough early warnings have come to pass that I take them seriously, if temporarily, and guardedly. I remember them when the time comes. There is a semblance of truth to many early forecasts. It is extremely interesting to me to watch a season play out and contrast it with the chatter here. Assuming the chatter is about the weather and not a one-upmanship contest. I don't feel foolish if a forecast goes off its mark. Better to take the clues and guess than be caught unaware. Plenty of people call near term forecasts with just as much success!
Quoting 581. Sfloridacat5:

Pretty bold forecast. Also, look how specific it is. They know exactly what time it's going to snow and sleet and then change back to rain 36 hours in advance.

Saturday Night
Rain and snow before 10pm, then snow and sleet between 10pm and midnight, then rain after midnight. Low around 28. Southeast wind 8 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible




Dr. Grenci had a blog entry about that earlier this week.
It looks like we might get some cold down to the GC late next week. Now whats it gonna take to get some moisture with it?
not much storm action in the pacific. even the nw pac is relatively benign.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
It looks like we might get some cold down to the GC late next week. Now whats it gonna take to get some moisture with it?


hell freezing over of course!
Dry socket.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The middle to latter portions of next week might offer the coldest air of the season for many as a persistent negative EPO allows for a number of arctic highs to continue dropping down into the U.S. Verbatim, the 0z GFS parallel shows air temperatures 35-40F below average across the Midwest, equating to highs well below zero. Wind chills dip to -40F to -50F Wednesday morning. Lows on Thursday morning drop into the teens all the way down into central Mississippi and Alabama as the air spreads south and east, with highs struggling to reach above freezing in the same areas.

Looking toward mid-January, much of the U.S. should moderate as the EPO rises towards neutral and positive territories. In addition, the MJO will be progressing across octants 5-6, which is generally a warm signal. I maintain that the pattern will flip after late month with a -AO, both as a consequence of the ongoing stratospheric warming event and the MJO's further progression into the West Hemisphere.

Indeed..

Some who do not need the rain will get it. Then a cold shot...


1050 mb high and bitter cold entering the Mid South.
I really hope this little Clipper redevelops like the GFS shows. I'm not asking for the world. Just a couple inches of snow. One thing's for sure, no matter what the Clipper does, an Arctic blast will follow.



I am having doubts about any long-lasting cold-air outbreaks into the Deep South.
GFS is forecasting a positive AO over the next 7-10 days:



In addition, the GFS has had a negative bias in its 10-day and 14-day AO forecasts since Mid-November:
Quoting Drakoen:


We were suppose to head into a pattern favorable for snow after mid-December which didn't come to pass. The only thing we seem to be getting is cold and dry or warm and rainy. The pattern still looks progressive as it did in November. The teleconnections show the NAO dominated in the positive region mostly even though we had a positive PNA. The AO had little negative dips but much of it was neutral or positive. Last winter we have a severe negative NAO/AO, literally off the charts.
Good morning Drak..I dont know if you saw this , but its definitely worth the time. Explains what is happening with the AO/NAO quite well...Link
Quoting SuzK:


There is a lot of long term forecast bashing going around. Unfortunately, not many are posting seasonal forecasts and I really miss that. Enough early warnings have come to pass that I take them seriously, if temporarily, and guardedly. I remember them when the time comes. There is a semblance of truth to many early forecasts. It is extremely interesting to me to watch a season play out and contrast it with the chatter here. Assuming the chatter is about the weather and not a one-upmanship contest. I don't feel foolish if a forecast goes off its mark. Better to take the clues and guess than be caught unaware. Plenty of people call near term forecasts with just as much success!
The problem with long term forecasting is they just don't work. I don't know what seasonal forecast you don't think is being posted, but we've even got stuff from the "Old Farmer's Almanac". It's better to take all the real data put out by professionals for forecasts over a reasonable time period than "to take the clues and guess" from amateurs here and think you're getting some kind of real forecast.
Quoting 594. hydrus:

Good morning Drak..I dont know if you saw this , but its definitely worth the time. Explains what is happening with the AO/NAO quite well...Link


Link
Quoting 561. sar2401:

Indeed, and that's one of the reasons I think some of these supposed indicators like the AO and NAO, even ENSO in general, are given far too much weight as being reliable indicators of teleconnections when the evidence shows they're not. We like things we can convert to numbers, feed through a computer, and then put faith in them because they produce nice charts and well-organized tables. :-)

Are you saying the world can't be organized into a Power Point presentation and we can't accurately predict the future? AAAIIIEEEE!!!
Quoting guygee:
I am having doubts about any long-lasting cold-air outbreaks into the Deep South.
GFS is forecasting a positive AO over the next 7-10 days:



In addition, the GFS has had a negative bias in its 10-day and 14-day AO forecasts since Mid-November:
I think the week of our cold air in the South may have finally arrived. After the front moves through this weekend, we get a 1055+ mb high that starts to settle in by Tuesday. It looks like this high/ridge is plenty strong enough to stay around until at least next weekend. I've never seen a high that strong in January that also doesn't develop a lot of cold air with it. I think we see lows from 10-15 degrees in the Deep South Wednesday through Friday. This is one of those times to pay attention to the synoptic developments and not so much to models that haven't shown a lot of success lately.
Hmmmm.
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 AM CST FRI JAN 02 2015

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL GA THROUGH
SC TO SRN NC SUNDAY...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL AND EASTERN GEORGIA THROUGH PARTS OF SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS
AND/OR A TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...SYNOPSIS...
BROADLY CYCLONIC MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH 30-60
METER 500-MB HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NEWD FROM
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT...ATTENDANT TO THIS LEAD
TROUGH...WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE EAST COAST STATES AND SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE SRN EXTENT MOVES
INTO NRN FL. A SECOND PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHEAR ALONG
A NNE-SSW ORIENTED AXIS AS IT TRAVERSES THE BASE OF THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH...BUT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE COLD FRONT.

...GA/SC/NC...
ALTHOUGH LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL VEER THROUGH THE FIRST-HALF
OF SUNDAY...STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WINDS WILL BE STRONG TO SUPPORT
STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR A GREATER
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DURING DAY 3 WILL BE THE LACK OF GREATER
INSTABILITY. WHILE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL TRANSLATE
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS
LLJ WITH SPEEDS UP TO 40-50 KT WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR
NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WITH STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS
POTENTIAL SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL GA SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN
SPREAD INTO SC AND SRN NC SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

..PETERS.. 01/02/2015

Quoting 598. sar2401:

I've never seen a high that strong in January that also doesn't develop a lot of cold air with it.

It is a very cold high dropping in the usual route from interior Alaska along western Canada while pressure slowly rises.
A veritable cold wave event for the US, Midwest especially, upcoming. Looks short lived though.


some snow in the northeast right now
Quoting ACSeattle:

Are you saying the world can't be organized into a Power Point presentation and we can't accurately predict the future? AAAIIIEEEE!!!
LOL. I was lucky enough to be going through college in the mid-70's, when WordStar and SuperCalc could be made to work together through the use of a bunch of clever macros done by people a lot smarter than me. Nothing like PowerPoint, but we could make a pie chart in SuperCalc and then embed it directly in WordStar! We could even make color graphs if we had a $5,000 printer and a half-hour per graph to print! Since my major was behavioral psychology, we put together a little study. We used five different disciplines (economics, biology, political science and two others I don't remember any longer) and had professors who were "in on it" with the study provide data for a supposed legitimate paper that affected their discipline. One group of papers was done in the usual boring text presentations of the day with some hand drawn graphs stapled on the end of the paper. The other group was done using all the snappy tools that were just becoming available, like color, professionally done graphs, and even {gasp} different fonts!

Each group of papers was then given to graduate assistants to grade along with a summary of what the paper was supposedly about. The output from each group was exactly the same except for presentation. The control for both groups was that the data output was essentially nonsense, using as many jargon terms as we could come up with for each discipline. Given the hardware and software constraints at the time, we couldn't even do a good job of "graph bombing" the snappy presentations compared to what's possible today, but they were pretty impressive for 1975.

I'll bet you'll never guess which group of papers got the highest grades, consistent across disciplines, with the only variable being presentation. I'm sure that same kind of thing couldn't happen today, since we're much too sophisticated for those tricks to work today...probably. :-)
Quoting 598. sar2401:

I think the week of our cold air in the South may have finally arrived. After the front moves through this weekend, we get a 1055+ mb high that starts to settle in by Tuesday. It looks like this high/ridge is plenty strong enough to stay around until at least next weekend. I've never seen a high that strong in January that also doesn't develop a lot of cold air with it. I think we see lows from 10-15 degrees in the Deep South Wednesday through Friday. This is one of those times to pay attention to the synoptic developments and not so much to models that haven't shown a lot of success lately.
I would tend to agree for the short-term , but I would not go so far as "winter returns". The correlation for the 7-day AO forecast with observations is very strong, however the AO is not the whole story. That being said, the recent "forecast-buster" has been the persistence of the unexpected more progressive pattern, so we will see if that continues as the theme this winter...
Quoting LargoFl:
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 AM CST FRI JAN 02 2015

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL GA THROUGH
SC TO SRN NC SUNDAY...

...SUMMARY...


And for Tomorrow...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST LA...SOUTHEAST
MS...AND FAR SOUTHWEST AL...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK AREA
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI...AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO THREAT WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
Quoting guygee:
I would tend to agree for the short-term , but I would not go so far as "winter returns". The correlation for the 7-day AO forecast with observations is very strong, however the AO is not the whole story. That being said, the recent "forecast-buster" has been the persistence of the unexpected more progressive pattern, so we will see if that continues as the theme this winter...
Ah, maybe I didn't read your post correctly, but I'm not on board the "Polar Express" either. This will just be a three day interlude of normal winter weather before we go back to our progressive pattern again. It's going to be a good hard freeze for us in the South but I see nothing that's going to bump off the progressive pattern we've had for the past month, regardless of the AO/NAO. These indicators have been wrong since after Thanksgiving and the forecasts that show them turning negative have also been wrong. It's really hard to get rid of a persistent pattern like this, and it won't flop over in a week.

Quoting 536. opal92nwf:


And I think it's hard to grow citrus in the Florida Panhandle...


It is. I move my trees inside during arctic outbreaks. FL panhandle conditions get cold enough to freeze fruit most winters and cold enough to kill the trees every few winters so it's not feasable to grow them outside unless you have extensive protection methods. There is also risk of long warm periods preventing the trees from going fully dormant so they are more vulnerable to cold outbreaks. In the DC metro area my trees are guaranteed dormancy by thanksgiving from our cold temps.

Nobles and kings with large estates grew citrus this way in NW France in the 18'th century.
Those questioning the warm bias of the Euro and CFSv2 really need to take a look at this as we have a very large and powerful Kelvin Wave moving east. There is no question in my mind that this next Kelvin Wave is going to have major implications across the Globe during 2015. You also have to remember unlike early last year with the first Kelvin Wave we had a positive SOI Index and now that index is at El-Nino levels so everything is in place for this next wave except the ESPI But both th PDO & SOI all support El-Nino so far.



Looks like this next Kelvin Wave arrives this Summer based on the Euro and CFSv2

High temperatures across the Midwest on Wednesday afternoon via the 12z GFS parallel:



Northeast on Wednesday afternoon:



Southeast on Thursday afternoon:

It also looks as if the IOD is beginning to trend toward negative values.

Quoting 611. StormTrackerScott:

Those questioning the warm bias of the Euro and CFSv2 really need to take a look at this as we have a very large and powerful Kelvin Wave moving east. There is no question in my mind that this next Kelvin Wave is going to have major implications across the Globe during 2015.



Looks like this next Kelvin Wave arrives this Summer based on the Euro and CFSv2


Scott, i'm sorry but i have to:
Quoting 614. Gearsts:
Scott, i'm sorry but i have to:


Well everyone has their own opinions but you would to be niave to ignore what appears to be coming. This next Kelvin Wave is going to have to be dealt with. Whether you like me or not what I posted is fact that this next wave is very large and we may have some 6C anomalies with it as the scale I posted only goes to 5C.

The IOG method (In and Out of Garage) works well for my small dwarf orange here. Worked well for a Meyer lemon I used to have but unfortunately is now gone. Also works for the hibiscus that I replant in the front bed each spring and dig up in the fall.

Works for yucca plants too, but they are so big and do so well indoors that I just move them inside the house from first freeze to last freeze.


Quoting 610. georgevandenberghe:




It is. I move my trees inside during arctic outbreaks. FL panhandle conditions get cold enough to freeze fruit most winters and cold enough to kill the trees every few winters so it's not feasable to grow them outside unless you have extensive protection methods. There is also risk of long warm periods preventing the trees from going fully dormant so they are more vulnerable to cold outbreaks. In the DC metro area my trees are guaranteed dormancy by thanksgiving from our cold temps.

Nobles and kings with large estates grew citrus this way in NW France in the 18'th century.
Quoting 613. StormTrackerScott:

It also looks as if the IOD is beginning to trend toward negative values.



Waters across the southern Indian Ocean and West Pacific are above-average to well above-average; as long as that continues to be the case, the atmosphere will continue to trend more toward a Neutral/La Nina than an El Nino, with the ascending portion of the walker circulation focused across the Maritime Continent (it should be positioned across the West Pacific in El Nino years).
Quoting 617. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Waters across the southern Indian Ocean and West Pacific are above-average to well above-average; as long as that continues to be the case, the atmosphere will continue to trend more toward a Neutral/La Nina than an El Nino, with the ascending portion of the walker circulation focused across the Maritime Continent (it should be positioned across the West Pacific in El Nino years).


PDO and SOI are in El-Nino levels and you can't deny the fact that the Euro and CFSv2 seem to have latched on to this next Kelvin Wave. Last year at this time we had positve SOI index and a meager PDO. So if some think we will not have a El-Nino next Summer or Fall might be mistaken. Likely with in the next 2 to 4 weeks we should see this warm pool make it to the Date Line and by then we will know more on just how massive this next Warm Pool is.
el nino managed to break through this fall but once again the atmosphere does not want to cooperate with the ocean and the 3.4 region has tanked below el nino threshold. MDR is warming up too. perhaps we will see an active season this year compared to the lull we have had the last 3 seasons
Quoting 618. StormTrackerScott:



PDO and SOI are in El-Nino levels and you can't deny the fact that the Euro and CFSv2 seem to have latched on to this next Kelvin Wave. Last year at this time we had positve SOI index and a meager PDO. So if some think we will not have a El-Nino next Summer or Fall might be mistaken. Likely with in the next 2 to 4 weeks we should see this warm pool make it to the Date Line and by then we will know more on just how massive this next Warm Pool is.

We'll see. The CFS and ECMWF haven't exactly proven themselves to be accurate ENSO models over the past three years, however....
Quoting 620. TropicalAnalystwx13:

We'll see. The CFS and ECMWF haven't exactly proven themselves to be accurate ENSO models over the past three years, however....


I totally agree with you on that but this time around we have many factors arleady in place for El-Nino so it will be interesting to see what happens as this Warm Pool begins to treverse further east.
The chance of widespread thunderstorm activity lasts through Sunday, as Winter Storm Frona ejects out of the West.

While this does not appear to be a widespread severe weather outbreak, the risk of a few isolated severe thunderstorms returns late Friday from southeastern Texas into western Louisiana. Damaging winds and hail are the main threats with these storms.

A better chance for at least isolated severe thunderstorms will be found on Saturday along and near the northern Gulf Coast. In addition to damaging winds and hail, these storms do have a slight risk of producing tornadoes, especially in southeastern Mississippi.

The risk for severe thunderstorms pushes farther east on Sunday and will stretch from eastern North Carolina to the Florida panhandle.


Quoting StormTrackerScott:


PDO and SOI are in El-Nino levels and you can't deny the fact that the Euro and CFSv2 seem to have latched on to this next Kelvin Wave. Last year at this time we had positve SOI index and a meager PDO. So if some think we will not have a El-Nino next Summer or Fall might be mistaken. Likely with in the next 2 to 4 weeks we should see this warm pool make it to the Date Line and by then we will know more on just how massive this next Warm Pool is.
Officially, not much has changed:

-ENSO-neutral conditions continue.

-Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean.

-There is an approximately 65% chance that El Niño conditions will be present during the Northern Hemisphere winter and last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.

So after all the watching and monitoring and analyzing and discussing we've done, there's still only a 2-in-3 chance we'll see an El Nino--and a solid 1-in-3 chance we won't. Personally, I think it'll happen, but it's looking more and more likely to be too late, too weak, and too short-lived to impact global patterns as much as a longer and stronger event obviously would have.

But, as always, we'll see...


maybe adding more snow on tuesday night on this map soon!
Quoting 623. Neapolitan:
Officially, not much has changed:

-ENSO-neutral conditions continue.

-Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean.

-There is an approximately 65% chance that El Ni%uFFFDonditions will be present during the Northern Hemisphere winter and last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.

So after all the watching and monitoring and analyzing and discussing we've done, there's still only a 2-in-3 chance we'll see an El Nino--and a solid 1-in-3 chance we won't. Personally, I think it'll happen, but it's looking more and more likely to be too late, too weak, and too short-lived to impact global patterns as much as a longer and stronger event obviously would have.

But, as always, we'll see...


I don't think we are going to see El-Nino declared to maybe Summer or Fall as the first 2 Kelvin Waves have fallen flat. However there appears to be a third one in equal strength to the one we saw last February as it began to cross the Date Line. So what the CPC is saying is correct and I would say that we don't get El-Nino until later this year but again JMO.
Quoting 615. StormTrackerScott:



Well everyone has their own opinions but you would to be niave to ignore what appears to be coming. This next Kelvin Wave is going to have to be dealt with. Whether you like me or not what I posted is fact that this next wave is very large and we may have some 6C anomalies with it as the scale I posted only goes to 5C.


I don't hate you.
Quoting 620. TropicalAnalystwx13:


We'll see. The CFS and ECMWF haven't exactly proven themselves to be accurate ENSO models over the past three years, however....
Greetings 13..The climate is changing , and while the models are not succeeding at precise forecasts , the trend is toward improvement. The Earths atmosphere and oceans have been undergoing a transition , computer models and historical records do assist us , but nothing will be able to pin down exactly where or when El Nino , PDO , NAO , AMO , or any other pattern anomaly with the precision some expect. I feel you know this , but wanted to type my thoughts....I have stated here before , statistics are only numbers that have no control over actual events.
Quoting 627. Gearsts:
I don't hate you.


Well if you did you wouldn't be the only one. Anyways Happy New Year everyone as I have to finish taking down all my Christmas decorations even though its nearly 80 degrees. Local mets say we could hit record highs this weekend with mid to upper 80's.
Quoting 616. HaoleboySurfEC:

The IOG method (In and Out of Garage) works well for my small dwarf orange here. Worked well for a Meyer lemon I used to have but unfortunately is now gone. Also works for the hibiscus that I replant in the front bed each spring and dig up in the fall.

Works for yucca plants too, but they are so big and do so well indoors that I just move them inside the house from first freeze to last freeze.





I have four "improved meyer" lemon trees. The original almost died in 2009 but I took a cutting and it took and thrived. I took three more cuttings in 2012 and these are now also bearing lemons. I gave one to my sister in law in Ohio and she put it in the classroom she teaches in. Kids liked watching the lemons ripen.

Meyer lemon roots readily from 4" new wood cuttings (not slips) but they need bottom heat (80-90F is ideal).


BTW they all come in next week. It looks like serious arctic air is headed for the Mid Atlantic next Wednesday or so.
Quoting 612. TropicalAnalystwx13:

High temperatures across the Midwest on Wednesday afternoon via the 12z GFS parallel:



Northeast on Wednesday afternoon:



Southeast on Thursday afternoon:


00z(7pm est/6pm cst) is past peak heating of the day.

I would try 18z(1pm est/12pm cst)Wednesday and Thursday afternoon to get more accurate high temps for they are the closest times to the peak heating of the day.

Maybe 21z for the central US(3pm cst) ;)
Quoting 631. Tornado6042008X:

00z(7pm est/6pm cst) is past peak heating of the day I would try 18z(1pm est/12pm cst)Wednesday and Thursday afternoon to get more accurate high temps for they are the closest times to the peak heating of the day. Maybe 21z for the central US(3pm cst) ;)


Note on the bottom of the image it says "6-hourly Maximum," meaning that the images I posted show maximum temperatures between 18z-0z.
Quoting 629. StormTrackerScott:



Well if you did you wouldn't be the only one. Anyways Happy New Year everyone as I have to finish taking down all my Christmas decorations even though its nearly 80 degrees. Local mets say we could hit record highs this weekend with mid to upper 80's.



mid to upper 80s?
Quoting 632. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Note on the bottom of the image it says "6-hourly Maximum," meaning that the images I posted show maximum temperatures between 18z-0z.


Well in that case then....Sweet Momma that is some cold air!
Quoting 633. tampabaymatt:



mid to upper 80s?


84 to 87 is what Tom Terry said the other day for Sunday and that seems reasonable given that there is going to be a SSW wind going which is typically a hot wind for E C FL. West Coast will be much cooler due to the wind coming in off the water.
Quoting tampabaymatt:



mid to upper 80s?
It seems there's always a record of some sort predicted to occur, about to occur, or occurring somewhere near Orlando.
From the NWS in Melbourne.

WEEKEND...PATTERN WL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WARMING TREND WITH DEEP
LAYER SE FLOW AROUND PERIPHERY OF A RETREATING WRN ATLC RIDGE.
SUITABLE DRYNESS OF AIRMASS WL PRECLUDE MENTION OF PRECIP CHCS
THROUGH MOST OF AREA SUN. AN APCHG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING SUN MAY
MAKE ENOUGH PROGRESS TOWARD AREA TO DESTABILIZE AIRMASS...MAINLY W
OF I-4 LATE IN THE DAY TO BRING A SHOWER OR TWO IN FROM THE WEST.
A LOW PCPN MENTION WL BE USED W OF METRO ORLANDO WITH UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPS APPROACHING RECORDS WELL IN THE 80S BOTH SAT AND SUN.
Quoting 636. sar2401:
It seems there's always a record of some sort predicted to occur, about to occur, or occurring somewhere near Orlando.


Unreal. Again here you go.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
302 AM EST FRI JAN 2 2015



WEEKEND...PATTERN WL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WARMING TREND WITH DEEP
LAYER SE FLOW AROUND PERIPHERY OF A RETREATING WRN ATLC RIDGE.
SUITABLE DRYNESS OF AIRMASS WL PRECLUDE MENTION OF PRECIP CHCS
THROUGH MOST OF AREA SUN. AN APCHG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING SUN MAY
MAKE ENOUGH PROGRESS TOWARD AREA TO DESTABILIZE AIRMASS...MAINLY W
OF I-4 LATE IN THE DAY TO BRING A SHOWER OR TWO IN FROM THE WEST.
A LOW PCPN MENTION WL BE USED W OF METRO ORLANDO WITH UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPS APPROACHING RECORDS WELL IN THE 80S BOTH SAT AND SUN.

Quoting 634. Tornado6042008X:

Just when I thought I had made a helpful statement just to find out a made a complete idiot of myself 3^(.............. I'm sorry.

Well in that case then....Sweet Momma that is some cold air!

Lol, no need to apologize, it's fine.
640. vis0
WiSiT? (where is it)
Clues::  in our solar system, 201412-30;0145u_201501-02;1015u

I'll bet you can't guess where I live in Alabama, even if you look for the place with the lowest predicted rainfall total.... :-)



oop i was right adding more snow at 12pm update this map heavy snow on here now
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

We'll see. The CFS and ECMWF haven't exactly proven themselves to be accurate ENSO models over the past three years, however....

Wait...now the STS Forecast Center says El Nino comes next Summer or...Fall? Given the fact I'm not a young man any longer, I have this feeling that my obituary is going to be published in the same paper with a news story that says El Nino is still just one more season away. :-)
Quoting HaoleboySurfEC:
The IOG method (In and Out of Garage) works well for my small dwarf orange here. Worked well for a Meyer lemon I used to have but unfortunately is now gone. Also works for the hibiscus that I replant in the front bed each spring and dig up in the fall.

Works for yucca plants too, but they are so big and do so well indoors that I just move them inside the house from first freeze to last freeze.


Looks like I have to move all the tender plants in again next week too. It looks like mid-teens Wednesday and Thursday and not far above freezing during the day. I remember entire winters where I had to go through this drill one or twice. This will be the fifth time and we're only in the first week of January. I'm thinking building some sort of conveyor belt thing from the porches to the plant room would save a lot of time...and my back. :-)
Any of you watching the S. Hemisphere's tropical activity? I'm watching a area near Madagascar.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
High temperatures across the Midwest on Wednesday afternoon via the 12z GFS parallel:



Northeast on Wednesday afternoon:



Southeast on Thursday afternoon:

My high of 40 is, I think, a little optimistic. The cold air advection is going to be headed south right out of Canada, and the models always tend to be too warm with these events. My forecast ,FWIW, is a high of 35 and a low between 13 to 16. Depending on how cold it actually gets overnight into Wednesday morning, the high of 35 may still be a touch warmer than reality. The wind chill is going to be brutal.
647. vis0

Quoting 552. sar2401:

It was supposed to be taking a dive after the 15th. Looks like it's doing just the opposite now. It took a little dive in the week after Christmas and now it's starting back up again. So far, the NAO predictions haven't been working out too well.


-maybe nature wants to "cell" while its up?


Quoting 612. TropicalAnalystwx13:

High temperatures across the Midwest on Wednesday afternoon via the 12z GFS parallel:



Northeast on Wednesday afternoon:



Southeast on Thursday afternoon:


Wait a sec... the second map, just the second map, doesn't say 6 hourly maximum... and the temps in the Ohio Valley are colder on it.

Not that it matters much though. I'm just pointing it out.
Quoting Tornado6042008X:
Wait a sec... the second map, just the second map, doesn't say 6 hourly maximum... and the temps in the Ohio Valley are colder on it.

Thanks, not sure why it switched. Thursday afternoon is actually cooler across much of the Northeast, so here's the new image:

Quoting vis0:

-maybe nature wants to "cell" while its up?


LOL. Nothing like a good pun, especially when uʍop ǝpᴉsdn sᴉ ʇᴉ ɟo ɟlɐɥ, to start the New Year. :-)

Looks like I may be in the Winter Weather Advisory soon!
Sunrise, Sunset / Sunrise, Sunset / Swiftly Fly the Years
By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 6:01 PM CST on January 01, 2015


Here’s an easy prediction for 2015. When we arrive at March 1, 2015, it will have been 30 years since there was a month where the global average surface temperature was below the 20th century average. Since we are creatures who like our milestones in years and decades and numbers divisible by 5, 10, 25 and 50 (like our currency), 30 years is the definition of climate in the standard of climate as the average weather. The National Climatic Data Center goes to some effort to strictly define “normal” in terms of 30-year averages. With the arrival of March 1, 2015, all of the months used in the calculation of current climate will have been warmer than the climate of my youth, the previous generation, our grandparent’s generation, Howard Taft’s, Teddy Roosevelt’s, indeed, Benjamin Harrison’s.

You might recall that in my unfashionable way, I objected to calling the 30-year average that ended in 2010 the “new” normal, because of the intuitive notion that normal is, well, what we might expect. And what we might expect is that the temperature will continue to rise, and not stay the same as the previous 30 years.

New day, new beach--afternoon from Kure Beach, NC.

Quoting 643. sar2401:


Wait...now the STS Forecast Center says El Nino comes next Summer or...Fall? Given the fact I'm not a young man any longer, I have this feeling that my obituary is going to be published in the same paper with a news story that says El Nino is still just one more season away. :-)


The funny thing about it is that he's using the same models over and over. You'd think once those models failed to verify once, twice, three times, hell I've lost count, that one would realize they're not quite reliable when it comes to predicting El Nino. I remember seeing posts about 6 C anomalies about a year ago, and here we go again. I'm sure I'll get banned now, so have a great rest of the day everyone.
Quoting 637. StormTrackerScott:

From the NWS in Melbourne.

WEEKEND...PATTERN WL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WARMING TREND WITH DEEP
LAYER SE FLOW AROUND PERIPHERY OF A RETREATING WRN ATLC RIDGE.
SUITABLE DRYNESS OF AIRMASS WL PRECLUDE MENTION OF PRECIP CHCS
THROUGH MOST OF AREA SUN. AN APCHG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING SUN MAY
MAKE ENOUGH PROGRESS TOWARD AREA TO DESTABILIZE AIRMASS...MAINLY W
OF I-4 LATE IN THE DAY TO BRING A SHOWER OR TWO IN FROM THE WEST.
A LOW PCPN MENTION WL BE USED W OF METRO ORLANDO WITH UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPS APPROACHING RECORDS WELL IN THE 80S BOTH SAT AND SUN.

yes here by me the record temp is 83..we may come close to or break that record they are saying..we'll see
The little man has that duty. Puts them on the red wagon and wheels them in and out when instructed. One of his chores.

Definitely and up and down winter so far.

Quoting 644. sar2401:

Looks like I have to move all the tender plants in again next week too. It looks like mid-teens Wednesday and Thursday and not far above freezing during the day. I remember entire winters where I had to go through this drill one or twice. This will be the fifth time and we're only in the first week of January. I'm thinking building some sort of conveyor belt thing from the porches to the plant room would save a lot of time...and my back. :-)
Quoting 656. HaoleboySurfEC:

The little man has that duty. Puts them on the red wagon and wheels them in and out when instructed. One of his chores.

Definitely and up and down winter so far.


The jets could bring some serious winter storms if phasing occurs.
img src="

48-Hour Snowfall Forecast">
Earlier today,I was talking with family in Texas (freezing cold there). I told them it was 86 degrees at the house, and they didn't believe me.

Now it's 85 (in the shade) at the house.

Here's some temps around the area.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
661. flsky
Definitely looking forward to it.

Quoting 637. StormTrackerScott:

From the NWS in Melbourne.

WEEKEND...PATTERN WL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WARMING TREND WITH DEEP
LAYER SE FLOW AROUND PERIPHERY OF A RETREATING WRN ATLC RIDGE.
SUITABLE DRYNESS OF AIRMASS WL PRECLUDE MENTION OF PRECIP CHCS
THROUGH MOST OF AREA SUN. AN APCHG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING SUN MAY
MAKE ENOUGH PROGRESS TOWARD AREA TO DESTABILIZE AIRMASS...MAINLY W
OF I-4 LATE IN THE DAY TO BRING A SHOWER OR TWO IN FROM THE WEST.
A LOW PCPN MENTION WL BE USED W OF METRO ORLANDO WITH UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPS APPROACHING RECORDS WELL IN THE 80S BOTH SAT AND SUN.