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Winter Storm Klaus kills 26 in Europe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:20 PM GMT on January 26, 2009

Powerful Winter Storm Klaus, similar in strength to a Category 1 hurricane, brought high winds that killed at least 26 people in Spain, France, and Italy on Saturday. Wind gusts as high as 124 mph (199 km/hr) occurred along the northern coast of Spain, and Klaus had a central pressure of 967 mb at its peak on the morning of January 24. Sustained winds of 59 mph were measured at Santander, and wind gusts as high as 69 mph hit Barcelona, where a roof collapsed at a sports center, killing four children. Klaus knocked out power to at least 1.7 million people, and likely did hundreds of millions in damage to Spain and France. The storm caused extensive flooding in southern France, and toppled more than half of the trees in the regions of Gironde and Landes, one of Europe's largest forest areas. It was the worst storm to hit the region since Winter Storm Martin hit in December 1999, killing over 100 people in France and Spain.

A few top wind gusts in Spain from Winter Storm Klaus:

El Musel-Gijon (Asturias): 124 mph (199 km/hr)
Malpica (A Coruña): 114 mph (183 km/hr)
Ancares (Lugo): 113 mph (182 km/hr)
Gijon (Asturias): 104 mph (167 km/hr)



Figure 1. QuikScat image of Winter Storm Klaus approaching Spain at 19:08 GMT Friday January 23, 2009. Winds here suggest Klaus had winds similar to a Category 1 hurricane. Image credit: Paul Chang, NOAA.

Future European storm damage due to climate change
How European extratropical storms like Klaus might change in a world undergoing global warming is highly uncertain. A number of studies cited in the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report showed significant increases in the intensity and number of extratropical cyclones in recent years. However, the report notes that "as with tropical cyclones, detection of long-term changes in cyclones is hampered by incomplete and changing observing systems". Thus, we cannot tell at present if recent observed changes in extratropical storms are an indication of climate change.

The forecast is also murky. The 2007 IPCC report states, "Confidence in future changes in windiness in Europe remains relatively low....Several studies have suggested a decrease in the total number of cyclones in the Mediterranean Sea, but there is no agreement on whether the number of intense cyclones will increase or decrease".

It's of interest to note that Klaus was a relatively minor storm compared to some past storms that have affected South France. Over-wash deposits in a lagoon in the region were found by Sabatier et al. (2008) to point to Category 3 hurricane-strength winter storms hitting the region roughly once every 100 years. The most recent strikes were in 1839 and 1893.

Hurricane Ike relief efforts presentation
The portlight.org disaster relief charity will be presenting a summary of their Hurricane Ike relief efforts and plans for the future on Wednesday, January 28, at 8:20 am, at the Summerville, SC Kiwanis club. The portlight webcam will be running during the presentation, for those interested.

Jeff Masters
Here Comes
Here Comes

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters. I wasn't aware that they named winter storms.
Earlier today the shadow of a solar eclipse crossed the Indian Ocean from SW to NE. Here is a half size animation I made from satellite images.

(click image for full size animation)
Interesting read. Thanks for the update.
Nice image lowercal!
One wonders how long it will be until the 1953 storm is equaled or surpassed Link
Lowercal that is awesome :)
I'm thinking a Portlight Wine Walk.... Through the Bourdou region, maybe some Champaign.... some French wine and cheeses...then run it off with the bulls.... bad storm over their...
I have updated my weather blog and also have a SuperBowl Pool going with a donation to Portlight!

TampaSpins Weather Blog and SuperBowl Pool Link
Quoting lawntonlookers:
Thanks Dr. Masters. I wasn't aware that they named winter storms.


That's news to me, too...
This storm sure was severe and devastating. The previous weekend, the extreme northwestern islands of Scotland (where I reside) suffered a storm of similar ferocity. Damage was restricted to a few rooftiles, blown away panelling, 12 crushed cars and half a dozen garden sheds. Population of area: 25,000.
"... Von KLAUSvits will now explain to us how Global Warming impacts European storms...."


Vicious winter storm. I too was unaware they named winter storms!

I do remember a story last year about the naming of storms in europe,and there was discussion about doing that in North America
Quoting lawntonlookers:
Thanks Dr. Masters. I wasn't aware that they named winter storms.
I didn't know either
This is my first time posting away from home (yay me) in NY but I'm headed back to VA tommorow. It should snow there WU says 100% hoping for three inches. Can they retire winter storms? then Klaus would be retired twice.
That would be a bad idea to name winter storm systems. That would give insurance companies extra incentive to raise rates to those folks in the "strike zone" for winter storms.

Have you heard about Vaclav Klaus ? He is our president. The president of the Czech republic. He says, that the global warming is a circle, that will ever repeat. He even says, that people aren't the cause of the global warming. What do you think about his "consideration" ? I don't think he's right at all.
Quoting presslord:


That's news to me, too...


I'm not aware of any specific terminology for them. Winter storm and windstorm are fairly generic. Gales as a term is also used.

The Berlin University (The organisation responsible for the names of these storms, like Klaus) doesn't appear to name them particularly either. Here and here are the naming lists and history behind the idea.

Nice to see this being covered. Hopefully that's the worst one for this season.

Another thing to note, I recall reading somewhere that ENSO has quite an effect on these storms... I think it's El Nino which makes them more intense than usual.
Wow they go through the list quickly up north.. wasn't too long they had a low (hurricane-force winds) named Frank.
Quoting all4hurricanes:
I didn't know either
This is my first time posting away from home (yay me) in NY but I'm headed back to VA tommorow. It should snow there WU says 100% hoping for three inches. Can they retire winter storms? then Klaus would be retired twice.


No low names are retired as far as I'm aware.

The names aren't 'official' in the sense the NHC ones are. They're merely a guide for meteorologists and some media outlets to use. For the latter, it's mostly German and Norwegian (The Norwegians use their own naming system for when storms directly impact their country).

Also, all lows are named, regardless of strength. Naming is done on a donating basis, to raise money for the UoB. Hence why they go through the list quickly, and there are several lists. Highs are also named.
hmm why is there Louis the first and Louis the second?
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
hmm why is there Louis the first and Louis the second?


Where?

(And as you can see, Klaus pops up more than once on that list.)
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
One wonders how long it will be until the 1953 storm is equaled or surpassed Link


Perfect environment. I don't know if it will be, as the Netherlands and London have shored up their flood defences immeasurably since that disaster. Lows tend to go between Iceland and Scotland, and off that way. Lows dropping back towards East Anglia don't happen all that often.

I guess a 'doomsday' scenario is possible. But then, I think we'll see a major hurricane surfing into NY before the flood of '53 is equalled.

However, if you're referring to any disaster hitting Europe, here's a fine example: Link
21. Cotillion 10:53 PM GMT on January 26, 2009
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
hmm why is there Louis the first and Louis the second?


Where?

---
It was on the weather chart

Quoting Frydek:
Have you heard about Vaclav Klaus ? He is our president. The president of the Czech republic. He says, that the global warming is a circle, that will ever repeat. He even says, that people aren't the cause of the global warming. What do you think about his "consideration" ? I don't think he's right at all.

See MichaelSTL's blog.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number SEVENTEEN(?)
TROPICAL CYCLONE DOMINIC, CATEGORY 2
6:50 AM WDT January 27 2009
===============================

At 6:00 AM WDT, Tropical Cyclone Dominic, Category 2 (982 hPa) located at 21.5S 115.2E or 17 kms north northeast of Onslow and 190 kms west southwest of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 6 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Dominic is crossing the coast near Onslow. Destructive gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may be experienced for a period in the Onslow region this morning. Gales with wind gusts to 90 kilometres per hour may be experienced elsewhere within the warning area. The cyclone is expected to weaken steadily as it moves inland during the remainder of Tuesday.

Tides will be higher than expected between Mardie and Exmouth.

Heavy rain and local flooding is expected close to the cyclone's path.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
============================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Mardie to Exmouth and inland parts of the west Pilbara.

The Cyclone Warning for areas between Karratha and Mardie has been CANCELLED.

RED ALERT: People in or near Onslow and adjacent inland communities should move to shelter.

YELLOW ALERT: People in or near Pannawonica should be taking action in preparation for the cyclone's arrival.

BLUE ALERT: People in or near the communities of Exmouth, Nanutarra and adjacent inland communities should be taking precautions.

ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in communities at Karratha, Dampier, Roebourne, Wickham and Point Samson are advised to proceed with caution.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
21. Cotillion 10:53 PM GMT on January 26, 2009
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
hmm why is there Louis the first and Louis the second?


Where?

---
It was on the weather chart



Curious... maybe they split, or are part of the same low?

Here was yesterday's:



Good evening folks.

I also remember the conversation last year about naming storms in Europe. In fact, the Meteorological Institute of Berlin University names every single low pressure system affecting Europe and even the high pressure systems.

Normally these names are only used for the national weather forecasts of Germany. In the case, however, when a low pressure system develops into a big storm, the given name is used by the meteorological services of other countries, too.

The names for low pressure systems 2009 can be found on this site and the high pressure names are found here.

This year the lows have male names and the highs female ones. Last year it was the opposite. Interested people can buy a low or a high so that it will bear their name. Lows are available for 199 Euros (approx. ) and highs for 299 (approx. ) because they are normally longer on the weather maps. If one of the rarer letters finds no buyer, the institute sells it on ebay.
So if anyone here is interested in naming a high or a low in Europe, watch out for those saying "wird bei ebay versteigert" (means: is being sold via ebay), the links leads to the ebay auction.

Why buying one? Besides having your name on the European weather maps you help the students in meteorology in Berlin.
Due to a cut in subsidies in 2002, the weather station can only be run for 8 hours a day. The other 16 hours ca. 20 students observe the instruments and monitors and get nil paid. So they came up with the idea of selling the highs and lows in order to guarantee a 24/7 supervision of the weather in Germany.
Without the students, the instruments would only record temperature, surface pressure, relative humidity and wind, but with their effort observations of cloud formation, cloud cover, precipitation, thunderstorms, ground frost etc. can be recorded as well, thus continuing the long tradition of keeping full records. (summarizing translation of "Gründe" = reasons)
jeez, Cotillon... if I had known that you know the site in English, I wouldn't have had to translate *lol*
Thanks for pointing out to me that they also have the site in English. Sometimes I'm just partially blind it seems. Now I see the little icon... xD
guess it is because new low is along the same front.

Highs are more expensive than lows, LOL
Yes Cotillon, you are right. When a low splits into two, they get the Roman number attached to their name.
Quoting taistelutipu:
jeez, Cotillon... if I had known that you know the site in English, I wouldn't have had to translate *lol*
Thanks for pointing out to me that they also have the site in English. Sometimes I'm just partially blind it seems. Now I see the little icon... xD


Haha.

Well, all questions and queries are hopefully answered between us. ;)

I'm glad it seems to be named after the buyer. Who knows sort of names we could get if they could choose it...

'Winter Storm Beckham'? Maybe even have Potter churning out in the Atlantic while the Galadriel and Oprah highs blanket Europe...

Here is the said Louis (I and II... not beheaded yet I trust?) and the remnants of Klaus, still looking very 'swirly':

Quoting Cotillion:


Haha.

Well, all questions and queries are hopefully answered between us. ;)

I'm glad it seems to be named after the buyer. Who knows sort of names we could get if they could choose it...

'Winter Storm Beckham'? Maybe even have Potter churning out in the Atlantic while the Galadriel and Oprah highs blanket Europe...


Haha, we could work in shifts here, like a sort of hotline for severe weather in Europe.

Actually it is not necessarily named after the buyer - only if the buyer's name starts with the same letter. Most people try to do this, but there are not many people whose names start with Q, X, Y or so. In that case you can pick any name starting with said letter.

The rules for naming the systems are also on the page. The name has to be acknowledged by the registry office as an acceptable given first name. I don't think you can name your child Beckham or Galadriel in Germany, but Ophrah could be possible.
What a mess....WoW

Quoting taistelutipu:


Haha, we could work in shifts here, like a sort of hotline for severe weather in Europe.

Actually it is not necessarily named after the buyer - only if the buyer's name starts with the same letter. Most people try to do this, but there are not many people whose names start with Q, X, Y or so. In that case you can pick any name starting with said letter.

The rules for naming the systems are also on the page. The name has to be acknowledged by the registry office as an acceptable given first name. I don't think you can name your child Beckham or Galadriel in Germany, but Ophrah could be possible.


Ahh, hadn't seen that. Thanks.
I would agree with that, the swirl looks impressive. But if I look at the surface analysis of today, 26th January, it seems to be Louis II and not Klaus. Latter is already over Turkey heading to the black sea. The surface analysis is from 9:00 UTC and the satellite picture is from 22:00 UTC. I think Klaus is already over the Black Sea on the sat image, there is a weak swirl of clouds.
Winter storm kills at least 13 people in Europe
January 25th, 2009 - 3:18 am ICT by IANS

Story:Link
Berlin, Jan 25 (DPA) A fierce winter storm packing gusts of up to 200 km per hour Saturday killed at least 13 people in a swath of Europe stretching from Spain to southern Germany.Spain was worst hit. Four children were killed when the roof of a sports hall collapsed in the town of Sant Boi de Llobregat near Barcelona. Two adult trainers and 13 children were injured.

Radio reports said about 30 people were in the indoor arena when the incident happened.

Five other deaths Friday in Spain included a traffic officer being killed by a falling tree and a 52-year-old woman being crushed in central Barcelona when a wall collapsed on her.

Many areas lost electricity in the Basque region where the storm damaged power lines. Fallen trees blocked roads in many towns.

In France, a 78-year-old man died near Dax when he was struck by flying debris. A car driver was killed near Mazerolles when his vehicle was hit by a tree.

Gusts reached up to 170 km/h in southwestern France Saturday, causing widespread damage and leaving an estimated 1.2 million households without electricity, the French power utility EDF said.

Authorities placed 15 departments in the area on high alert and advised the public to stay indoors. The Red Cross was called in to assist stranded travellers.

Streets were blocked by uprooted trees and railway lines were also affected, with trains carrying hundreds of passengers stranded.

Bordeaux and Toulouse airports were shut and the Aquitaine Bridge was closed to traffic. Winter sport facilities in the Pyrenees were also closed.

Many people were left homeless when winds ripped the roofs from their houses. Tens of thousands of French residents were also cut off from communication, as the storm disrupted both landline and mobile phone services.

In southwest Germany, a 70-year-old man was killed when a barn door was ripped off its hinges by the wind and fell on him Friday at Gerabronn. A motorist was killed in a head-on collision blamed on an icy road near Frankfurt.

A landslide caused by rain sideswiped five cars and a truck on a highway near Lake Constance, injuring five people.

The storm was slowly moving eastwards over southern France in the direction of northern Italy, losing power as it went.

Experts, in radio reports, compared the storm to a devastating winter storm, which struck France and other parts of western and central Europe in 1999.
ALERT Worldwide

Article:Link

The primary energy source for extratropical cyclones, or winter storms, is the degree of contrast in temperature between the poles and the equator. This contrast is strongest, and thus the conditions for strong cyclogenesis are most favorable between 30 and 60 degrees north latitude in the region near the east coasts of Asia and North America. The winter storms affecting Europe typically originate in the Atlantic Ocean to the east of North America and subsequently move eastward toward and across the European continent. Winter storms affecting North America often originate in the Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico and subsequently move eastward. Pacific storms often develop as they approach the U.S. West Coast and sometimes redevelop as they pass over the Rocky Mountains. Storms originating in the Gulf of Mexico, like the 1993 “Storm of the Century”, often redevelop off the Mid-Atlantic coastline and intensify into blizzards which have come to be known as Nor'easters. Blizzards are intense extratropical cyclones characterized by strong coastal winds, heavy frozen precipitation, and extremely cold temperatures.

Extratropical cyclone systems typically comprise multiple areas of relatively low and high pressure, the locations of which can change quickly and frequently. This is in sharp contrast to the homogeneous, symmetric structure that is observed for tropical systems in low latitudes. As an extratropical system evolves, the interaction of these low and high areas creates changes in the horizontal pressure gradient field. The evolving pressure gradient field drives the response of the associated windfield. Extratropical cyclones typically do not achieve the wind speeds of the most intense tropical cyclones. However, at a single time, an extratropical cyclone system’s damaging windfield can affect an area of tens of thousands of square kilometers. Individual locations can be subjected to periods of high winds for up to several days. Examples include the winter storms Lothar and Martin in late December 1999 in Europe and the Storm of the Century in the Eastern U.S. in March of 1993.
Fiji Meteorological Service
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number ONE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-F
9:00 AM FST January 27 2009
========================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression EIGHT-F (1001 hPa) located at 16.9S 176.7W has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 30 knots within 120 NM from the centerin the eastern semi-circle. Position POOR based on multispectral/GOES visible imagery with animaton and peripheral surface observations. The depression is reported as moving souht-southeast at 8 knots.

System is embedded in an active monsoon trough, just south of the 250 HPA subtropical ridge and downstream of a 250 HPA shortwave trough. Deep convection located to the east of the low level circulation center in a moderately sheared environment.

Dvorak analysis based on shear pattern with low level circulation center located 0.25 degrees from the edge of convection yields DT=3.0, PT=MT=2.0

FT Based on MET thus T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS

TD EIGHT is expected to curve south then southwest into a region of increasing environmental shear and lose its tropical characteristics.

Global models EC and UK are moving the system southward, while NOGAPS is moving it southwest, with little intensification.

POTENTIAL FOR 08F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS LOW.

Next Advisory from Nadi RSMC is at 2:30 AM UTC...
I'm usually a lurker but...

Looking at the poll on the blog (about scientific disagreement about climate change), right now it's 13 saying there is significant disagreement and 6 saying there is an agreement among scientists (and one of the six was mine). Maybe it's just a result of a small sample size, but I'm continually struck by how weakly the case for global warming is viewed. If a meteorology specific blog whose author accepts climate change can't even get a simple majority of its respondents to accept it, how in the world is the general public going to be convinced? Right now the public seems (generally) convinced of the case for AGW, but I find it hard to believe that will hold once people are faced with the real financial difficulty of coping with it. Especially when so much of the theory is backed up by such inherently noisy data. If the tobacco industry could cast doubt between the link between cigarettes and cancer for decades, what chance do we have of convincing the general public of AGW against the massive wave of disinformation that will be coming as the debate ratchets up?

Frankly, I have my doubts about whether or not we'll be able to overcome this and stabilize CO2 emissions.

I'm taken back by the lack of agreement even on this blog. For those of you who don't accept AGW, where do you disagree with the theory? The theory seems solid and there doesn't seem to be disagreement among climatologists (Not even Christy, Ball, Singer and their ilk would disagree that human emissions have a significant effect on the climate). Oreskes poll seemed pretty definitive on the matter of debate among climatologists in terms of primary literature. I'm at a loss to guess where this belief that there is a large amount of disagreement in the scientific community about the basic of AGW came from... especially on a blog that seems as though it'd be so close to the science.

I think they are comparing Klaus to Lothar which struck on December 26th 1999. The next one, Martin was named just one day later but I can't really remember it. Unfortunately there are no reports for 1999 on the Adopt-a-vortex site. The first reports date from November 2002; low Yvonne being the first one with a detailed summary (click on the name, unfortunately only available in German).

[edit: I just tried to find information about Lothar and Martin, there is plenty about the former but nothing about the latter. I'm going to dig a bit...

I found an interesting pdf published by an insurance company about the damage of the three December storms Anatol (3./4.), Lothar (26.) and Martin (27./28.) and a comparison between this series and the 1990 series of Daria, Herta, Vivian and Wiebke]
Lowercal, thanks for that image - very nice.

Terrible about the winter storm. Definitely proves that we aren't the only ones that have the violent weather.

After all the other things that have happened this year, I'm beginning to think hurricanes aren't that bad. At least you know they are coming, and there are definite things you can do to be safe.
If you're interested in seeing me in a jacket and tie....as opposed to a dress...then please be sure to watch our Wednesday morning presentation.....
springfield, mo getting nasty stuff tonite
looks like a train of cold fronts coming thru fla. later this week
Quoting Cotillion:


Haha.

Well, all questions and queries are hopefully answered between us. ;)

I'm glad it seems to be named after the buyer. Who knows sort of names we could get if they could choose it...

'Winter Storm Beckham'? Maybe even have Potter churning out in the Atlantic while the Galadriel and Oprah highs blanket Europe...

Here is the said Louis (I and II... not beheaded yet I trust?) and the remnants of Klaus, still looking very 'swirly':



vigorous cyclone
Quoting TampaSpin:
What a mess....WoW



I know, right? I've been watching that all day and I cant remember the last time that i saw winter storm watches/warnings streching from the texas/Mexico to Maine/Canada border. It looks like Im in line for about 9 or 10 inches on wednesday- Bring it on.
Forecast high for Super Sunday down here in West Palm Beach is 67...Yeah!
Geeeeze that wave has TEETH
Quoting presslord:
If you're interested in seeing me in a jacket and tie....as opposed to a dress...then please be sure to watch our Wednesday morning presentation.....
Now I'm interested

So, I got this new T-shirt in the mail..... it's very hot... Just love the logo

HURRICANE IKE RELIEF HONOR WALK - w/IKE'S picture on it too! (thank goodness not Presslord in drag)

Buttt.. the best part was they also included Bumper stickers -- made my day!!

I have this thing for Bumper Stickers.....

My new Portlight.Org sticker will be placed in a prominent position
Quoting surfmom:
Now I'm interested




you've been interested...
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
looks like a train of cold fronts coming thru fla. later this week
Yes.... and they will bring me waves....if El Norte is going to breath his cold nasty breath down my neck -- he better be bringing the goods!!!
Frisky we are, Captain of the Black Swan........ wee bit early for Spring Fever, suppose it's that cold north wind filling the sails

ommm, at another careful look at the lighthouse picture I noticed the rainbow...... the wave took my total attention at first......that is soo knarly and soo beautiful at the same time----
FLASH TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 19
Issued at 10:35 am WDT on Tuesday, 27 January 2009
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

This Flash Advice has been issued to update the FESA Community Alert status at
Onslow.

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Mardie to Exmouth and inland
parts of the west Pilbara.

At 9:00 am WDT Tropical Cyclone Dominic, Category 2 was estimated to be
20 kilometres east southeast of Onslow and
95 kilometres north northwest of Nanutarra and
moving south southeast at 9 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Dominic has crossed the coast near Onslow. Destructive gusts to
135 kilometres per hour were experienced in the Onslow region this morning.
Destructive wind gusts are likely inland from Onslow over the next few hours.
The cyclone will weaken during the day and pass close to Nanutarra this
afternoon where a period of damaging wind gusts to 110 kilometres per hour is
likely. Gales with wind gusts to 90 kilometres per hour may be experienced
elsewhere within the warning area today. Dominic is likely to weaken below
cyclone intensity this evening or tonight.

Heavy rain and local flooding is expected close to the cyclone's path, but
rainfall totals will be highest close to the coast.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Dominic at 9:00 am WDT:
.Centre located near...... 21.7 degrees South 115.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 28 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 9 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 980 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near Nanutarra and adjacent inland communities should
be taking precautions.
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in communities at Onslow, Exmouth, Pannawonica,
Karratha, Dampier, Roebourne, Wickham and Point Samson are advised to proceed
with caution.



The next advice will be issued by 1:00 pm WDT Tuesday 27 January.

Bureau of Meteorology skipping advisories numbers, Aussie?

last advisory was number 17..
Quoting Frydek:
Have you heard about Vaclav Klaus ? He is our president. The president of the Czech republic. He says, that the global warming is a circle, that will ever repeat. He even says, that people aren't the cause of the global warming. What do you think about his "consideration" ? I don't think he's right at all.


I think he is the highest ranking member of STL's ignore list.... not sure about the rest
Fiji Meteorological Services
GALE WARNING FOR TD 08F

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 08F (1000 hPa) located at 17.3S 176.1W is reporting as moving southeast at 9 knots

Position POOR

Clockwise winds 25 to 30 knots within 60 NM from the center in the eastern semicircle, possibly increasing to 35 knots in the next 24 hours.

THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY WILL BE RELEASED BEFORE 2:30 AM UTC ON THIS DEPRESSION.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number TWO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-F
12:00 PM FST January 27 2009
===========================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Cyclone Alert

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TONGA.

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression EIGHT-F (1000 hPa) located at 17.7S 176.1W has 10 minute sustained winds of 25-30 knots within 60 NM from the center in the eastern semi-circle. The depression is reported as moving southeast at about 9 knots. Position POOR based on multispectral/GOESIR Visible imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations.

System is embedded in an active monsoon trough, just south of the 250 HPA subtropical ridge and downstream of a 250 HPA shortwave trough. The low level circulation center is difficult located due to cirrus but appears to be moving closer to the central dense overcast located to the east. System is expected to be steered south in response to a mid level ridge to the east.

Dvorak analysis based on shear pattern with low level circulation center located 0.25 degrees from the edge of convection yields DT=3.0 MT=2.5 and PT=FT 2.0

Thus T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Environmental shear to the south of the system may ease and there is a likelihood that TD EIGHT may intensify in the next 24 hours. Currently good outflow channel exists to the north and south of the system and are aiding the development of this depression.

Global models EC and UK are moving the system southward, while NOGAPS is moving EIGHT southwest, with little intensification. On the other hand, GFS intially moves TD EIGHT southwest and then curves it to the northwest in response to a ridge building to the south.

POTENTIAL FOR 08F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
39. BCtotheG

No problems with speaking up respectfully.

If someone does have an issue, then it is their problem.

Personally, it's not worded very well.

Three things for me, mainly (have not voted).

1. "a lot" - Very broad. For me, in terms of science, say, 10-20% is a lot. As I do not know the exact % (if even available), can't comment.

2. "climate scientists" - Again, how broad? For pre-sat stuff and for sure anything older than 300 years, I favor the geologists. If you include them (and they are the ones for long term climate), I could be wrong (no "real" stats on that), but that would over my threshold in #1.

3. "human activities are a major cause" - Here again, an issue. If you're talking CO2, generously, the human contribution is 5%... and that's just CO2. No one disagrees (I think even MichaelSTL would concede this one) that water vapor is by far (80%... heck, reduce it to 60% if you want)the biggest component of greenhouse gases. In terms of all factors combined, how can that be "major?" Yes, there's methane, urban sprawl, whatever, etc., but it still doesn't reach the threshold of "major," imo. Natural forces alone are huge.

Love ya Doc, but by putting both the "a lot" and "major cause" is a problem. It is a poorly worded poll if you want true results.

Let's say 60% of scientists is "a lot."

By that standard, 60% of climate change (inclusive of all factors that affect climate) would be required to be human related for "major cause."

Not even close to 60%.
However, if you're referring to any disaster hitting Europe, here's a fine example: Link

No kidding. I lived in Verona, Italy during August 2003. No air conditioning at work or in our house. Turned out hundreds died in our area but the government didn´t fess up until weeks later. My wife was 8 months pregnant at the time. Sure felt sorry for her. Fans were king for all the good they did.
I am currently creating a new website

it is 10% complete

It should be completed by wednesday
Look forward to it, futermet.

Always appreciate your efforts.
future, good start so far :)
Quoting Seastep:
Look forward to it, futermet.

Always appreciate your efforts.


Thanks seastep

(sometimes I think I OVERDO IT) lol
Has a little of a TampaSpin feel, right now.

All graphics. ;)

Gotta get your forecast in there, first and foremost. That is your edge.
Tampa is graphics, all you could want... havin' some fun with Tampa (love ya). ;)

As far as I'm concerned, you're a "currentmet" :)

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number TWENTY
TROPICAL CYCLONE DOMINIC, CATEGORY 1
12:50 PM WDT January 27 2009
===============================

At 12:00 PM WDT, Tropical Cyclone Dominic, Category 1 (983 hPa) located at 22.0S 115.4E or 50 kilometres south southeast of Onslow and 60 kilometres north northwest of Nanutarra has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south-southeast at 5 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Dominic crossed the coast near Onslow just after 7am WDT this morning. Dominic is rapidly weakening as it moves further inland and only a small area of the western Pilbara, inland from Onslow and extending to Nanutarra, remains under threat of damaging wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour during the afternoon. The system is expected to weaken below cyclone intensity in the next three to six hours.

Rain is rapidly easing although localised heavy falls with thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
============================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for an area inland from Onslow extending southeast to include Nanutarra.
And, before I sign off, always appreciate EVERYONE's input/efforts/chitchat.

It is what makes it great.
Quoting Seastep:
Tampa is graphics, all you could want... havin' some fun with Tampa (love ya). ;)

As far as I'm concerned, you're a "currentmet" :)



lol no

I have a long-way to go. I am an amature meteorologist. Drakoen should get that title instead.What is more, I am in High School lol
If you live in the USA it does not matter whether man is causing global warming or not. Obama is going to make us pay for it with our wallets. Thats what 52% of America wanted.
Quoting BtnTx:
If you live in the USA it does not matter whether man is causing global warming or not. Obama is going to make us pay for it with our wallets. Thats what 52% of America wanted.
.

Yep, and his approval rating has already dropped 15%....LOL
Quoting futuremet:


lol no

I have a long-way to go. I am an amature meteorologist. Drakoen should get that title instead.What is more, I am in High School lol


It's all good......Futuremet you go gettem...keep up the great work.
My Mother is Loving this....she lives just north of Evansville......LMAO....

39. BCtotheG 11:56 PM GMT on January 26, 2009 Hide this comment.

Looking at the poll on the blog (about scientific disagreement about climate change), right now it's 13 saying there is significant disagreement and 6 saying there is an agreement among scientists (and one of the six was mine). Maybe it's just a result of a small sample size

This is also a huge problem with respect to the evidence supporting the effects of AGW...

, but I'm continually struck by how weakly the case for global warming is viewed. If a meteorology specific blog whose author accepts climate change can't even get a simple majority of its respondents to accept it, how in the world is the general public going to be convinced? Right now the public seems (generally) convinced of the case for AGW, but I find it hard to believe that will hold once people are faced with the real financial difficulty of coping with it. Especially when so much of the theory is backed up by such inherently noisy data.

I concur. It all sounds great, for the moment. Once costs rise, it will not be such a neato idea, all of a sudden. (Did you hear about the 93-year-old that froze to death because his power was shut off for non-payment?)It is very noisy and we have yet to consistently and objectively measure anything through more than a couple of natural cycles. Even our best and most pristine rural temp records only cover 3 full PDO cycles, at most, and give very little measure of what we have to assume is a varying amplitude. In the realm of weather modeling, a feature shown by only 3 grid points would be insufficient to base a forecast from.

If the tobacco industry could cast doubt between the link between cigarettes and cancer for decades, what chance do we have of convincing the general public of AGW against the massive wave of disinformation that will be coming as the debate ratchets up?

Frankly, I have my doubts about whether or not we'll be able to overcome this and stabilize CO2 emissions.


If the evidence is to be believed, a huge (and completely impossible without massive human die-offs) reduction would be the only answer. Roll back the clock to the mid-1700s...

I'm taken back by the lack of agreement even on this blog. For those of you who don't accept AGW, where do you disagree with the theory? The theory seems solid and there doesn't seem to be disagreement among climatologists (Not even Christy, Ball, Singer and their ilk would disagree that human emissions have a significant effect on the climate). Oreskes poll seemed pretty definitive on the matter of debate among climatologists in terms of primary literature. I'm at a loss to guess where this belief that there is a large amount of disagreement in the scientific community about the basic of AGW came from... especially on a blog that seems as though it'd be so close to the science.

In this forum, that is just the problem. This is not the general public. Most anyone in here at any given time is intelligent enough to recognize the limitations of the data that is available and that most any conclusion taken from that data has the potential to be misleading. There are usually a lot of science-types and engineers here. Many of us expect that the professionals in the field have the same misgivings.
Quoting TampaSpin:
.

Yep, and his approval rating has already dropped 15%....LOL


Had nowhere to go but down, really...unless he abolished "politician" as an acceptable profession. Then he would have 100%.
76. atmoaggie 11:57 PM EST on January 26, 2009


No true proof shows man has made global warming as history shows the earth temperatures go up and down without mans influence so, how much of an influence has man really had........Nobody has the knowledge of that answer that can convience even many experts.....so why is it amazing!
Quoting TampaSpin:
76. atmoaggie 11:57 PM EST on January 26, 2009

No true proff shows man has made global warming as history shows the earth temperatures go up and down without mans influence so, how much of an influence has man really had........Nobody has the knowledge of that answer that can convience even many experts.....so why is it amazing!


Hence those valid points about the wording of the poll. "A lot" and "major" are pretty tough qualifiers.

G'Nite, all.
79. atmoaggie

Nite sleep well
Thanks for the responses Atmoaggie and Seastep...

Seastep: I would say major contributor would mean responsible for most (I guess most is also a somewhat relative term though too, so let's say >50%) of the ~.6 C observed warming.

While more data would definitely be nice, I'm not sure the lack of data can be used as a reasonable premise to throw out the theory, especially when the observed data seems to so strongly support the theory.

I guess I'm just hung up on the fact that within the published research there doesn't seem to be much, if any, disagreement about whether human activities are a major cause of global warming. If there is disagreement, why isn't this reflected in the scientific literature? And if there is no disagreement within the scientific community then why is there so much here?
A clean-up effort is under way in the West Australian town of Onslow after tropical cyclone Dominic brought down trees, damaged power lines and blew a section of roof off the town's library.

The weather bureau and Fire and Emergency Services Authority (FESA) said the category two cyclone crossed the coast near Onslow, about 1,400km north of Perth, this morning.

It has since been downgraded to a category one storm and is rapidly weakening as it moves further inland, the weather bureau said.

FESA said no injuries were reported in the coastal township and residents had begun fixing minor roof damage and clearing fallen trees.

``Part of the roof from the town's library blew off and hit power lines,'' a FESA spokesman said.

``Other power lines have been damaged along with trees and minor flooding on roads.''

Power has been restored to the town but the hospital remains reliant on a generator.
Inland Nanutarra, south-east of Onslow, remained on blue alert with damaging wind gusts of up to 100kph possible in the afternoon.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number TWETNTY-ONE
TROPICAL LOW, EX-DOMINIC
3:50 PM WDT January 27 2009
===============================

At 3:00 PM WDT, Tropical Low, Ex-Dominic (994 hPa) located at 22.5S 115.5E or 100 kilometres south southeast of Onslow, near Nanutarra has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The low is reported as moving south-southeast at 6 knots.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Dominic crossed the coast near Onslow just after 7am WDT this morning. Destructive wind gusts to 135 kilometres per hour were experienced in Onslow during the morning. However the system weakened rapidly as it moved inland and damaging wind gusts are no longer expected.

Rain has cleared from coastal areas and is rapidly easing inland, although localised heavy falls with squally thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon.

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin
====================================

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 24.3S 116.2E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
24 HRS: 26.2S 117.2E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Remarks:
The system continued to weaken as it moved inland. Informal observations close to the current position indicate winds have eased below gale force.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Dominic crossed the Pilbara coast near Onslow around 22Z. Highest wind speed observed was a 10-minute mean wind of 53 knots gusting to 72 knots at Onslow airport. Observations in the area confirmed the system had very small radii of storm and gale force winds.

Accumulated rainfall of 272mm was recorded at Onslow Airport, with similar totals recorded offshore.
Subject: Tropical Cyclone Warning

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TONGA-

  • Special Bulletin - Tonga

    At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression EIGHT-F (1000 hPa) located at 18.2S 176.2W has 10 minute sustained winds of 25-30 knots withing 60 NM from the center in the eastern semicircle, possibly increasing to 35 knots. The depression is reported as moving southeast at 10 knots. Position POOR based on multispectral/visible imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations

    System embedded in an active monsoon trough, just south of the 250 HPA subtropical ridge and downstream of a 250 HPA shortwave trough. The low level circulation center is difficult to locate due to cirrus outflow but appears to be moving closer to the central dense overcast located to the east. The system expected to be steered south in response to a mid level ridge to the east.

    Dvorak analysis based on shear pattern with low level circulation center located 0.25 degrees from edge of convection yields DT=3.0, MET=PT=2.0

    FT based on PT, thus T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS

    Environmental shear to the south of the system may ease as the shortwave trough from the west approaches. As a result there is a likelyhood that TD EIGHT may intensify in the next 12 to 24 hours. Currently, good outflow channels exist to the north and south of the system and are aiding the development of the depression.

    Global models UK and NOGAPS are moving the system southwest, while EC moves it south with little intensification. On the other hand, GFS maintains a westward track in response to a ridge building to the south.

    POTENTIAL FOR 08F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
  • 85. ayi
    Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
    Bureau of Meteorology skipping advisories numbers, Aussie?

    last advisory was number 17..


    I noticed that as well Hades. Haven't been able to keep tabs continuously through the day but from #12 to #20 was a surprise to me when I got back.

    Quick question, when you paste advisories you (nearly) always change the spelling so that the TCWC is mispelled. Curious as to why?

    Sorry, another question, how do you post a picture? The obvious doesn't seem to work for me.
    makes my day to wake up and see such a beautiful wave (lighthouse photo) - temp is 59 degrees in SWFL as I wait for dawn to break -- perfect weather for running.
    SWFL Cold Front Surf ALERT

    Block your Saturday morning off for some cold SURF at those day after spots. Looks like a small S windswell Wednesday afternoon at the best S facers in the 1-2ft range. Surf should come up Friday morning, best time to surf late in the day on Friday, again Saturday morning for the cleanup, gonna be cold. Saturday morning looks waist high, maybe plus with NE winds. Temps in the 40's.

    If you have no blubber, better bring out all your rubber......it's going to feel like surfing in a Slushy.

    My luck has me working at the PoloBarn for most of this....grrrr --working on a plan
    If El Norte is going to breath his cold nasty breath down my neck -- he best deliver the goods -- that would be a fair exchange
    89. ayi
    Onslow Airport data during the passage of TC Domenic

    BCtotheG...

    What I find odd is that you do not find it odd that the media is claiming near perfect concurrence with the AGW. Believing that there could ever be such a large percentage of agreement is like saying you believe in the Boogy Man.

    Disagree with the Current Thinking and Writing (CTW) and you will find yourself mercilessly excoriated. MichealSTL will permanently ban you from his blog.

    Don't you find even a bit odd that having a differing opinion is met with such vehement denigration?

    With the AGW folks, its like the world has gone back centuries and they are the Flat Worlders who charge heresy whenever someone has the temerity to suggest the world round, not flat or that our world is not the center of the universe.

    Until there is a Station Placement Protocol and a Calibration Certification and both are required to be periodically verified before data from any station can be used in data analysis, AGW is simply a theory...not a fact.

    Lets not forget that the analysis, when presented, must have the underlying raw data readily and freely available to any and all who may want to see it. Not to mention the compliance with the Placement Protocol and Calibration Certification requirements that any objective scientist would insist upon in any other scientific field of research and analysis.

    Software modification of the data is up to the scientist; but, the underlying data must remain unchanged, it must be the raw data directly from the stations sans any cleaning for readability.
    91. ayi
    Try again!

    Onslow Airport data during the passage of TC Domenic

    Quoting futuremet:
    I am currently creating a new website

    it is 10% complete

    It should be completed by wednesday


    Hmm looks like you just need the rest of Tampaspins webpage to be complete.
    98P


    kat~ you do realize gravity is a theory & not fact? Your not really giving any scientific reasons why AGW is not happening, just social & conspirisy theories. THe theory has been tested in different ways & like gravity seems very much real & to be happening...unlike when they sailed to the edge of the world & didn't fall off.

    What does Exxon gain in admitting burning natural resourses for energy causes AGW? & why would it be involved with Heartland? Which by the way is the source for pretty much all your reasons. Interesting board of directors.

    Heartland’s extreme anti-environmentalism no doubt spawns from its supporters. Between 1998 and 2005, oil giant ExxonMobil gave nearly $800,000 to Heartland. The group’s Board of Directors also explains the group’s climate change denials:

    – Thomas Walton is the Director of Economic Policy at General Motors.

    –James L. Johnston is a former senior economist for oil company Amoco Corporation.

    –Walter F. Buchholtz is a former member of Heartland’s board of directors and worked as ExxonMobil’s Senior Issues Advisor.

    –James M. Taylor is editor of Heartland’s weekly Environment & Climate News and wrote an op-ed criticizing Gore’s “Assault On Reason” insisting that “global warming threats they should not be deliberately exaggerated as a means of building support for a desired political position.”

    Check out their invitation letter to one of their gatherings..lol. Did you attend?
    ayi~ you tried the link to the right under Dr Master's recommended links for posting images?

    Wow 6º in Ann Arbor...

    Anyone care to tilt that sucker back over before June 1?
    Quoting theshepherd:

    Anyone care to tilt that sucker back over before June 1?


    You can't post that graph.. it sort of blows a lot of theories out of the water.
    Oh he can post the graph.. it's yet another theory. An even harder one to test. Little hard to take that one in the hood. It's a factor like all the other natural forcings that contribute to our temp. & by that..a bad time this is indeed to be increasing gasses that would make things warmer for our planet. By June 1st.. What does any of those 3 cycles have to do with the tropics?

    Here was an interesting article about some new research..
    (PhysOrg.com) -- An insecticide used to fumigate termite-infested buildings is a strong greenhouse gas that lives in the atmosphere nearly 10 times longer than previously thought, UC Irvine research has found.

    I will get over 10" of snow in central NH at school. Nice. back home they are expecting 1-3" with a changeover to a heavy rainfall. This storm will get quite intense as it reaches Cape Cod, MA.
    Quoting Orcasystems:


    You can't post that graph.. it sort of blows a lot of theories out of the water.
    I'm just an ol' country boy, trying to stumble through.
    97. Skyepony 2:52 PM GMT on January 27, 2009
    Oh he can post the graph.. it's yet another theory. An even harder one to test
    .......................................
    For sure.
    I have a theory that there used to be an ice age and that there used to be warmer weather.
    Post 99 - Doomed! I tell you, DOOMED!

    So if it is irreversible, now what?
    I'm going home today when I get there I'll tell you If I finally got that snow. The radar looks good so far
    Here was an interesting article about some new research..
    (PhysOrg.com) -- An insecticide used to fumigate termite-infested buildings is a strong greenhouse gas that lives in the atmosphere nearly 10 times longer than previously thought, UC Irvine research has found.
    ........................................
    Research has shown that every 40 sec a child is killed by a mosquito and that half the people that have ever lived on this planet have suffered the same fate and they remain dead just as long as previously thought.

    Good Morning everyone......Don't forget about my Football Pool......
    BCoftheG...

    Whats with the tap dancing around the necessity of having ACCURATE raw data as opposed to manipulated sloppy data?

    The problem with your thoughts on the word 'theory' is because the AGW folks are treating AGW as 'LAW'. Of course, we all know the purpose behind such a ruse. Anyone with the temerity to question the 'LAW of AGW' is a buffoon. The 'LAW of AGW' proves it is invalid by attacking its 'opponents' personally rather than politely and calmly restating their facts over and over again...regardless of how many times that might be needed.

    It is problematic because of the admitted sloppiness of the data gathering process. Even for a theory to work as advertised, the underlying data must be also be as pristine as possible. The mere fact that there has been clear instances of extremely poor placement of a station and that entire reporting areas are suddenly 'non-existent' should serve to cause all concerned to be very wary of any analysis which uses that data in any way shape or form. The lack of any documented methodology of keeping the stations in calibration or having placement protocol should send shivers down the spine of every scientifically minded person.
    Quoting tornadofan:
    Post 99 - Doomed! I tell you, DOOMED!

    So if it is irreversible, now what?


    have no idea... let's just go get a soda...

    Quoting Orcasystems:


    Hmm looks like you just need the rest of Tampaspins webpage to be complete.

    LOL. Sadly I must agree.
    Fiji Meteorological Services
    Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number FOUR
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-F
    0:00 AM FST January 28 2009
    =========================================

    Subject: Tropical Cyclone Warning

    A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TONGA.
  • Special Weather Bulletin - TONGA

    At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression EIGHT-F (998 hPa) located at 18.7S 176.6W has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 to 30 knots within 120 NM from the center in the eastern semicircle, possibly increasing to 35 knots in the next 6-12 hours. The depression is reported as moving south-southwest at 8 knots. Position POOR based on multispectral/infrared imagery with animation, latest Quikscat, and peripheral surface observations.

    System embedded in an active monsoon trough, south of the 250 HPA subtropical ridge and downstream of a 250 HPA shortwave trough. The low level circulation center is difficult to locate due to cirrus outflow. Recent satellite imagery indicates a decrease in the areal extent of the cold cloud tops. System is expected to be steered south in response to a mid level ridge to the east in the short term.

    Dvorak analysis based on curved band pattern with a wrap of 0.55 yields DT=MET=PT=2.5

    FT=2.5 based on MET, thus T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

    The system lies in a moderately sheared environment. Shear to the south of the system may ease as the shortwave trough from the west moves through. The alternative scenario is shear may continue to increase and lead to the demise of TD EIGHT. There is still a likelihood that TD EIGHT may intensify in the next 6 to 12 hours. Currently, good outflow channels exist to the north and south of the system and are aiding the development of the depression.

    Global models UK and NOGAPS are moving the system southwest, while EC is moving it south with little intensification. On the other hand, GFS maintains a westward track in response to a ridge building to the south.

    POTENTIAL FOR 08F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
  • Quoting calusakat:
    BCoftheG...

    Whats with the tap dancing around the necessity of having ACCURATE raw data as opposed to manipulated sloppy data?

    The problem with your thoughts on the word 'theory' is because the AGW folks are treating AGW as 'LAW'. Of course, we all know the purpose behind such a ruse. Anyone with the temerity to question the 'LAW of AGW' is a buffoon. The 'LAW of AGW' proves it is invalid by attacking its 'opponents' personally rather than politely and calmly restating their facts over and over again...regardless of how many times that might be needed.

    It is problematic because of the admitted sloppiness of the data gathering process. Even for a theory to work as advertised, the underlying data must be also be as pristine as possible. The mere fact that there has been clear instances of extremely poor placement of a station and that entire reporting areas are suddenly 'non-existent' should serve to cause all concerned to be very wary of any analysis which uses that data in any way shape or form. The lack of any documented methodology of keeping the stations in calibration or having placement protocol should send shivers down the spine of every scientifically minded person.


    DiDo
    DISCLAIMER: The views expressed are purely to make a point regarding "major" and absolutes in debates.

    BCtotheG

    If the tobacco industry could cast doubt between the link between cigarettes and cancer for decades, what chance do we have of convincing the general public of AGW against the massive wave of disinformation that will be coming as the debate ratchets up?

    First, just want to make it clear that I do not advocate smoking and, if there is such a thing, it is "good" propaganda that we, as a society pound it into kids' minds that "if you smoke, you will get cancer." Also, I am only speaking about cancer here. There are many other negative health affects.

    That being said -

    Actually, this is a perfect example of people believing, by media/propaganda/etc, something that simply isn't true. What is the prevailing "view?" It is that cigarettes cause cancer. Even says it on the pack. Is this true? Nope. "If you smoke you will get cancer" is a false statement.

    Overall, it is about a 20% chance over a lifetime of smoking. The biggest factor is genetics. If cigarettes only cause cancer 20% of the time on average, how can that be "definite" cause. If it were, that number should be closer to 100%. Certainly at least 50%. Yes, the vast majority of lung cancer is smoking related, but not all smokers get it and people get it that are never exposed. In fact, 80% of smokers do NOT get lung cancer on average.

    Check it out for yourself. This is a calculator of the risk from Sloan-Kettering (arguably the best cancer center in the world). Click on the "open calculator" in the upper right-hand box.

    Link

    Knock yourself out. I challenge you to try to get a realistic scenario to come anywhere near 50%. So, if it is say, 5% or 10%, is that "if you smoke you will get cancer?"

    As an example for those that do not care to check it out:

    55 year old male, 2 pack a day smoker for 35 years = 5% chance of developing lung cancer over the next 10 years if continuing to smoke.

    If only 5% of that population gets cancer is the "if you smoke, you get cancer" an accurate statement?

    It seems to me genetics is the #1 factor. If you have a certain genetic makeup (not factored in the calculator) and throw cigarettes into the mix, that % goes way, way up. I would be a perfect example. I am a smoker (trying to quit and will this year!).

    If you put my scenario in (assuming I continue to smoke until I am 50... lowest age you can put in), it is 2%. However, three of my grandparents died of lung cancer (smokers). Regardless of what that calculator says (doesn't factor in genetics), in my case, I would put my chances if I do not quit at upwards of 90%.

    Again, I fully support public service messages that hammer it home as the truth to our youth, though. Even if misleading in reality. It has worked in reducing smoking and that is a good thing. Not to mention the myriad other negative health impacts.

    Just making a point, and probably most will be surprised at these percentages because we have been "told" this. Facts are facts. ;)

    Again, just making a point.
    LOL poet
    Shep~ It's a good theory in my book. Just tough to test in a hood..like in a lab. Unless you look at the whole earth as your lab. Where AGW has been tested both ways..

    It's also a great example of what we could be in for.. Effect exceeds cause..this theory is what gave us the heads up that we were probibly in for some positive feedbacks.


    I haven't thought how the Milankovich cycles could effect hurricane season in a while..any info on that? (your reference to June1st?) I was really intreeged how that tsunomi in Dec 2004 threw the Precession cycle in that theory off & wondered if that had an effect on the horrific 2005 hurricane season.. Any new studies?

    & not pretty when NOAA goes gloom & doom. At this point climate change is something nations should prepare for.
    Bad Freezing Rain Storm ......really bad i Kentucky.......


    I haven't thought how the Milankovich cycles could effect hurricane season in a while..any info on that?
    .............................................

    Tilt the Atlantic Basin in a more direct line of sight with the sun.
    No info required. No fact checking needed....LOL
    The study's authors said there was "no going back" after the report showed that changes in surface temperature, rainfall and sea level are "largely irreversible for more than 1,000 years after CO2 emissions are completely stopped."

    NOAA senior scientist Susan Solomon said the study, published in this week's Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences journal, showed that current human choices on carbon dioxide emissions are set to "irreversibly change the planet."


    --------------


    I would just like to point out something from the article and the scientists - particularly Susan Solomon.

    There is absolutly zero - zip - nada - zilch - way to predict anything with such certainty in a complex environmental and planetary system such as earth - 1000 years into the future. What if there was an a asteroid impact, wide spread volcanic activity or nuclear war would that not quite rapidly reverse CO2 induced planetary warming?


    I am most displeased with scientists talking with such absolutes about the future.

    Gulf - are you saying that scientists are not 100% correct at all times? Wow... They should develop some Method to test their theories...
    I don't know TF... just wondering out loud.

    I appologize also for wanting to learn more about this issue. But I do have a question perhaps someone can link a good article.

    We measure C02 in the atmosphere. But exactly how do we measure how much of that, in terms of increase to the total is actually coming from human activity?

    thanks
    111. What do you think the chance is that sea level will rise more quickly (10 to 20 ft in 100 years vs 1000 years) if we keep pumping CO2 into the atmosphere?

    Your post seems to argue FOR the AGW propaganda.
    119 GulfPoet

    Generally speaking, they use Mauna Loa as the baseline because it is relatively removed from human activity and compare to that, I believe.

    Link
    Have you ever considered Global Warming as a miracle?

    Somewhere around 2040 world population will be approaching 9 billion. Feeding those 9 billion will be done using land and sea. We will be eating produce, meat and fish products...all resources enhanced by the presence of higher levels of CO2. Meat and fish because those at the lower end of the food chain, eat plants.

    If it is warmer, and CO2 is higher, then the plants will grow larger and quicker...helping to feed those 9 billion.

    Not good enough for you? Somewhere near 2081 that population will approach 18 billion!! Feeding those people will be our most important challenge.

    So, do we start out on this quest by taxing those who grow cattle because of the fact that cattle pass gas? At wee bit anal don't you think?

    Perhaps we don't necessarily want the climate cooler, if the population does grow as predicted, we will need all the CO2 we can get to make our land and sea grow as much food as possible.

    Perhaps those living too close to the sea will be forced to relocate. Whatever we do, worrying about CO2 today when we are facing a potential planet destroying population explosion is arrogant and and based on sloppy science to boot.
    Quoting barryweather:
    111. What do you think the chance is that sea level will rise more quickly (10 to 20 ft in 100 years vs 1000 years) if we keep pumping CO2 into the atmosphere?

    Your post seems to argue FOR the AGW propaganda.


    I wasn't arguing anything. Just making a point.

    I am very skeptical of anyone who says "this is a fact, no question about it."

    Just as people who say "if you smoke, you will get lung cancer" are completely false in their statement. But, it is pushed as a fact, when it is not.
    Quoting GulfPoet:
    I don't know TF... just wondering out loud.

    I appologize also for wanting to learn more about this issue. But I do have a question perhaps someone can link a good article.

    We measure C02 in the atmosphere. But exactly how do we measure how much of that, in terms of increase to the total is actually coming from human activity?

    thanks


    Just one major earthquake that would produce an enormous Tsunami could change the tilt of the Earth current axis......how many times has this happened in the past that we are not aware of and will it happen again...of course.....so the reality of it the Earth changes all the time.....GW is just a money making study for Science.....do we need this study probably! Should we take care of Mother Earth of course. But, all GW is simply put is theory....and thats all and not a good one at that when only a blink of the eye is being observed in time.
    Quoting theshepherd:

    I haven't thought how the Milankovich cycles could effect hurricane season in a while..any info on that?
    .............................................

    Tilt the Atlantic Basin in a more direct line of sight with the sun.
    No info required. No fact checking needed....LOL


    Thought: Would more tilt (e.g. direct sunlight at nadir at 24 degrees N) give us more or less shear? If warming more at a slightly higher altitude, then there would be a shorter distance between the warmest and coldest points in the NH. Maybe I am not considering something...like maybe the Arctic not as cold during the season, then there would be less shear.

    Maybe the anti-AGW-historical hurricane link where a study found evidence of far more and more intense storms hit PR and Hispaniola during a period of cooler global temps was influenced by this more than the temps. Hmmm...

    (See, I am willing to consider work claimed to refute AGW effects as the product of something else entirely. Not closed-minded, but require exacting detail and thorough consideration of all potential causes and effects of most anything.)
    shep~ what does mosquitos have to do with CA choice of termite killer?
    Quoting Seastep:
    119 GulfPoet

    Generally speaking, they use Mauna Loa as the baseline because it is relatively removed from human activity and compare to that, I believe.

    Link



    Thanks Seastep... but ... please bare with me... I understand that this is again another measurement of CO2 in the atmosphere, and at a location removed from "human activity" However, more specifically how do they measure actual CO2 emmisions from all the various human activities? Are there actual datapoints for all the factories, cars, cow farts (bovine activities) and other emmission sources in some data table? Knowing that C02 is ABSORBED by plants, a certain amount of this is going to be recycled into oxygen. What are the other sources of C02 in the atmosphere? Again are there data tables? Also these sources some of the C02 is absorbed.

    Thus - how do we measure - "human activity sources" - natural sources - absorbtion rates - effects of deforestation - total gross C02 output planet wide, Gross C02 absorbtion, and determine the net effect is human activity is causing the increase in atmospheric C02 levels.

    thanks
    Perhaps we don't necessarily want the climate cooler, if the population does grow as predicted, we will need all the CO2 we can get to make our land and sea grow as much food as possible.

    I love asking someone what they think caused the Irish potato famine when debating the merits of "doing something about CO2 emissions".


    Again.. I applogize.

    It should be an equation someone has worked out

    human sources + natural sources - absorbtion = net gain to atmostpheric C02

    With some algebra - what is the net gain to atmospheric CO2 from human activity.

    According to Stephen Hawking in A Brief History of Time, "A theory is a good theory if it satisfies two requirements: It must accurately describe a large class of observations on the basis of a model that contains only a few arbitrary elements, and it must make definite predictions about the results of future observations." He goes on to state, "Any physical theory is always provisional, in the sense that it is only a hypothesis; you can never prove it. No matter how many times the results of experiments agree with some theory, you can never be sure that the next time the result will not contradict the theory. On the other hand, you can disprove a theory by finding even a single observation that disagrees with the predictions of the theory."

    So, does that mean when we cite obvious violations of AGW in today's weather patterns that AGW is false?
    so if we look at the graph below we have roughly a 10ppm increase over the past 4 years or so. How much of that 10ppm increase is human induced?

    where is the supporting data to prove it?



    TS~ The tilt corrected itself by the end of 2005 & the cycle continued as if it had never happened.
    where is the supporting data to prove it?

    there is none...Domo ate it...next?
    122. calusakat 4:03 PM GMT on January 27, 2009


    so do you suppose Obama and Pelosi will ask for more than 200million for condums?
    I hear a lot of viewpoints that the science is sloppy. Of course, no one scientist can maintain an array of equipment precise enough to measure global warming accurately. I actually operate a weather station that uploads data to this site. A diode just went out so I no longer have an accurate measurement for wind direction. I hope to have it fixed soon, but budget constraints have pushed the issue to the bottom of the list. Multiply this problem by 10's or 100's of thousands of weather stations the world over (or more if we could get them). Now try to accurately assess the future of climate change.

    That's just it. You can't. Climate scientists are well aware of this fact. You can use the data available to create theories as well as computer models though. Show me one model that says we will start cooling soon for an extended period of time. Show me one model that suggests reducing CO2 doesn't affect the the increase in temperature over time.

    Some groups may be in it to make money. However, the majority of climate scientists really do care about the fate of people on Earth.
    122. From what I've read. CO2 may be a very bad thing for the food chain in the oceans. If I have time I'll try to post some info.
    131. All we can do is use mathematics to estimate these numbers. Consider the factors that balance the carbon cycle.

    Let me know what you find.

    I hate to repeat myself but:




    129. GulfPoet 4:11 PM GMT on January 27, 2009


    Again.. I applogize.

    It should be an equation someone has worked out

    human sources + natural sources - absorbtion = net gain to atmostpheric C02

    With some algebra - what is the net gain to atmospheric CO2 from human activity.
    Barry... I'm asking the question. It seems pretty simple and some AGW expert should be able to simply post the link for the equation solved and the support data.

    127. GulfPoet

    Sorry, don't know. It is just an estimate, but I am sure it is probably pretty close. In terms of that, I have no reason to disbelieve the figures.

    Now, would CO2 also be rising and at what rate compared to now if there were no CO2 emissions by man?

    That I question. Nature has a way of balancing itself out. i.e., if nature wants XX CO2 in the atmosphere, it'll get there. If man contributes, nature produces less to balance. We know nature balances. There was a great study which seems to have disappeared from cyberspace a few years back. I wish I had saved it. It was Atlanta, I believe and studying the effects of their emissions policies. They found that, even though emissions were down, the numbers did not fall as expected. Why? Because the trees simply "soaked up" less to create a balance was the conclusion.

    Just anecdotal, but we have no idea what the rate would be if no man-made. Anyone who says we do is fooling you. Would it be -xx of man-made? I highly doubt it. Nature would certainly balance it somewhat, so it would be some % of xx, imo.

    With that, I have to get some work done.

    See ya all later.
    Poet~ Ya'll have run off about anyone that wants to argue this with the actual science data...so now we have less people on here that actually provides some links & good info about weather. I'm not going there & I can understand's other's reluctance...You want answers. I learned them in a University in Chem class for science majors, it really takes more than a quick post..it takes an education, I suggest you get one through a college or google.

    Kat you need to google ocean acidification..
    Quoting Skyepony:
    Poet~ Ya'll have run off about anyone that wants to argue this with the actual science data...so now we have less people on here that actually provides some links & good info about weather. I'm not going there & I can understand's other's reluctance...You want answers. I learned them in a University in Chem class for science majors, it really takes more than a quick post..it takes an education, I suggest you get one through a college or google.

    Kat you need to google ocean acidification..


    OUCH....WoW
    Did someone say football pool?

    GO STEELERS!!!!!!!!

    Really off now. :)
    141. Skyepony 8:39 AM PST on January 27, 2009
    Poet~ Ya'll have run off about anyone that wants to argue this with the actual science data...so now we have less people on here that actually provides some links & good info about weather.



    Gulf ran them off? Off of THIS blog? You're kidding, right? Just wait until H season starts back up. You won't be able to get a post in edgewise on here. He didn't run them off....they're just hibernating....
    how the hell am I running people off by asking a freekin' question?

    I asked a very simple question. WTF is up with your attitude for me just asking a question?

    All I want to know is how we measure atmospheric C02 and the differences between the natural carbon cycle and man made additions.

    Surely you have that data at your fingertips.

    I would very much like to see the simple graph. man co2 | carbon cycle c02 | increase in atmospheric c02 over time.

    I have no freekin' agenda or religion - Just asking questions to learn. So run along if you don't want to answer the daggum question.

    geezopeezo!!!
    138. Sorry. Missed that post. It's not that simple though. My point is that is will be an estimation and very hard to calculate.

    There are so many microclimates on Earth and so many species of microorganisms involved. Many of these species are completely unknown to science. That's not to mention all of the larger organisms that are part of the cycle as well. There is no way to produce a precise number.

    Since many here tend to discount estimations it seems you probably wouldn't believe it anyway.

    Quoting GulfPoet:
    how the hell am I running people off by asking a freekin' question?

    I asked a very simple question. WTF is up with your attitude for me just asking a question?

    All I want to know is how we measure atmospheric C02 and the differences between the natural carbon cycle and man made additions.

    Surely you have that data at your fingertips.

    I would very much like to see the simple graph. man co2 | carbon cycle c02 | increase in atmospheric c02 over time.

    I have no freekin' agenda or religion - Just asking questions to learn. So run along if you don't want to answer the daggum question.

    geezopeezo!!!


    The problem with GW people they have a very narrow one track mind....LOL ....that also might need more Education on People skills....LMAO
    If Obama can turn water to wine as many think....im sure he can also fix GW also....ROFLMAO
    Quoting NRAamy:
    141. Skyepony 8:39 AM PST on January 27, 2009
    Poet~ Ya'll have run off about anyone that wants to argue this with the actual science data...so now we have less people on here that actually provides some links & good info about weather.



    Gulf ran them off? Off of THIS blog? You're kidding, right? Just wait until H season starts back up. You won't be able to get a post in edgewise on here. He didn't run them off....they're just hibernating....


    He might be referring to STL. (who rather clearly ran himself off by being the metaphorical tunnel boy of AGW in here and has special software that has an "Ignore All" button not unlike "Reply All" in an email client.)
    You can't put the end all answer to how CO2 is measured in a quick post. Yes I have links to satellites & airplanes & floating buoys that measure this but suppling those aren't gonna teach you. It is a very complicated thing with many factors. It can not be explained in some quick post that takes 2 mins to write. To demand someone to do this for you is socially a bit innept if you ask me. You do know what google is?
    State Farm says goodbye to Florida

    Link

    Hello Citizens?

    Chart one miss hissy fit...

    This would go toward proving some point I guess.






    Chart two:

    Skypony - you have to look at the big picture and at least acknowledge the carbon cycle and natural cycles of C02 change over Hundreds of Thousands of years. Granted... Human activity is in fact "enhancing" this current cycle, and rasing the peak. But you cannot leap to the conclusion that Man is destroying the planet, when the peak in the natural cycle is coinciding with the industrial age. And I have seen no other demonstrable evidence that on a planetary basis - human activity is creating anything more than a blip on the vast scale of the atmosphere.





    Now I think what some of us are simply trying to do is understand that there are in fact NATURAL climate change events in the history of the planet, how these are induced and what cause - effect outcomes are there, and finally how does human activity in the industrial age have any impact on this natural cycle?

    I am not a DENIALIST whatever the heck that is supposed to mean. I am trying to understand the data and resolve conflicts in the data logically. In case you forgot some of your college course work in science - you are supposed to question your assumptions, challenge your own data, and resolve contradictions.

    Or perhaps you were refering to your religion classes when you took a swipe at me?

    Now calm down for crying out loud. Between you and Pooper scooper Masters I;m about to call it quits altogether trying to learn any of this "CRAP"
    Quoting Skyepony:
    Poet~ Ya'll have run off about anyone that wants to argue this with the actual science data...so now we have less people on here that actually provides some links & good info about weather. I'm not going there & I can understand's other's reluctance...You want answers. I learned them in a University in Chem class for science majors, it really takes more than a quick post..it takes an education, I suggest you get one through a college or google.

    Kat you need to google ocean acidification..

    LOL...but wearing the tiger's stripe does not a hunter make.
    The ongoing sophistry that the study of GW is going to accomplish anything is a mass diversion of effort and funds.
    Give me my battery. Not the current dinosaur lithium variety.
    I'll be the the first to retrofit my Suburban.
    Research something that will make a difference.
    This a heartfelt comment, not a slam.
    Quoting Skyepony:
    You can't put the end all answer to how CO2 is measured in a quick post. Yes I have links to satellites & airplanes & floating buoys that measure this but suppling those aren't gonna teach you. It is a very complicated thing with many factors. It can not be explained in some quick post that takes 2 mins to write. To demand someone to do this for you is socially a bit innept if you ask me. You do know what google is?



    by god you do have a sense of humor :)

    asking me if I know what google is.

    REally... just calm down. I am not trying to bite you I am just askign for some help finding the data.

    No I am not lazy.

    Next time someone pulls up a chair for you to sit down and explain something, try not to slap them so hard in the face.
    "miss hissy fit"????
    Your Tao just rolled off the scribe's desk.
    Ya'll have made a bigger arguement that STL's social skills are why AGW isn't true then why his arguements for AGW aren't true. It gets tiring debating with people who can't even stick to the subject or purposely tries to confuse people with unpublished theorys. He's not the only one that has tired & moved on.

    How many here are payed by big oil?
    Quoting GulfPoet:



    by god you do have a sense of humor :)

    asking me if I know what google is.

    REally... just calm down. I am not trying to bite you I am just askign for some help finding the data.

    No I am not lazy.

    Next time someone pulls up a chair for you to sit down and explain something, try not to slap them so hard in the face.


    Ahmen........

    Shep - Research something that will make a difference.


    Pickensplan.com

    http://www.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUSTRE50C4LH20090113?feedType=RSS&feedName=environm entNews

    A solar tower:




    We need captial investment in these companies not lip service. How many enviromental wackos drive around in SUV's, fly their jets to Island getaway conferences, and burn the midnight oil in their plush offices making propaganda, instead of taking their cold hard cash and investing it in the stocks of these exciting new companies?

    The President pats himself on the back for giving the Governator the right to slap CAFE standards on the morons from Detroit, instead of making a cold hard cash investment in a NAtural Gas Powered engine and conversion of our gasoline infrastructure.

    You are right. It's all about the money. About politics and money.

    Getting things done actually takes vision - leadership - and investment.
    sorry - i'm just a starving poet so all I can do is the vision thing.
    Quoting Skyepony:
    Ya'll have made a bigger arguement that STL's social skills are why AGW isn't true then why his arguements for AGW aren't true. It gets tiring debating with people who can't even stick to the subject or purposely tries to confuse people with unpublished theorys. He's not the only one that has tired & moved on.

    How many here are payed by big oil?


    Sky your Liberal thinking will eat your heart out.......LOL.......AL will fix everything for you......I'm sure you have faith in Mr. Gore to fix our middle ways thinking that just try to look at the bigger picture with an open Mind that GPoet was attempting and got his head chopped off......WOW!
    Quoting theshepherd:
    "miss hissy fit"????
    Your Tao just rolled off the scribe's desk.


    Indeed ... I'm sorry.
    hello all its now looking more likely that will be looking at extreme” drought here in N CA

    Quoting GulfPoet:
    how the hell am I running people off by asking a freekin' question?

    I asked a very simple question. WTF is up with your attitude for me just asking a question?

    All I want to know is how we measure atmospheric C02 and the differences between the natural carbon cycle and man made additions.

    Surely you have that data at your fingertips.

    I would very much like to see the simple graph. man co2 | carbon cycle c02 | increase in atmospheric c02 over time.

    I have no freekin' agenda or religion - Just asking questions to learn. So run along if you don't want to answer the daggum question.

    geezopeezo!!!


    Here is one potential answer. This is from April of last year. It does NOT say it is differentiating between natural and anthropogenic, but the map says it all...or does it?

    Let us examine how this is generated.

    "To create the Vulcan maps, the research team developed a method to extract the CO2 information by transforming data on local air pollution, such as carbon monoxide and nitrous oxide emissions, which are tracked by the Environmental Protection Agency, the U.S. Department of Energy and other governmental agencies."

    So it really is only depicting emissions at locations where air pollution monitoring is present. It goes on...

    "For example, we've been attributing too many emissions to the northeastern United States, and it's looking like the southeastern U.S. is a much larger source than we had estimated previously," says Kevin Gurney, an assistant professor of earth and atmospheric science at Purdue University and leader of the project."

    Well, no $#!T. You mean that south, where all of the industry that the north didn't want in their backyard, where there is ALWAYS the potential for higher tropospheric ozone levels, and thus air pollution monitoring present? Well, I guess they are surprised that we, in the south, actually have discovered fire.

    If you conduct a spatial analysis with a few obs over a larger area, you end up with a larger feature. Conversely, if you do the same with a lot of obs near one another...smaller. (think the difference between extrapolation between DC and Baltimore vs the same between Houston and Dallas)

    Now if this were supplemented with a satellite that could actually give near realtime CO2 concentration without biases generated by a single situational measurement type (and the proximity to neighboring measurements), then it might be what Gulf was looking for.
    158 gulfy
    just give me my battery
    Shep ~ Your battery is on a shelf at GM.. I forget the name of the guy that invented it. But he made solar panel shingles too but didn't sell those to a big evil corp. I totally agree the effort on this is wasted. CO2 at this rate will kill off most the food we gather in the ocean~ NOAA says 2050 but even if they are off~ way too soon. It needs to stop. I for one have mostly moved on to what I can do & promote & inspire (see the gardening movement around here:)

    The tiger comment~ too cute~ that Univ I went to was Clemson:P

    I really don't mean that as a slap. You are asking for an incrediable complicated answer that needs a semester or more to explain. It amazes me after the studies i've been through how quick so how much work, collecting from more sources than most imagine can be written off. Glad you get the sense of humor though:)
    How many here are payed by big oil?

    Dunno. Not me!

    (please let me know where to put in my direct deposit info...anytime now...hello?...dang)
    A solar tower:

    Great, let's put up thousands of those!. And if there are surface stations anywhere near them (of course there are), I am certain that we will have abolish cattle ranching next "because the methane produced is causing out-of-control warming!" LOL.
    163. atmoaggie 5:16 PM GMT on January 27, 2009


    Great ... and cool.... and not just because it's a VULCAN either. lol

    Obviously we are the largest producers of C02 and other gases as the worlds largest industrial economy. What about China, the rest of South East Asia and Russia in the coming decades. Perhaps President Apollo will sign a divine order allowing Shanghi province to increase CAFE standards for motorized Rickshaws?

    I really like the "scalple" analogy. Clearly in line with thinkers like TBoone Pickens and some others hard at work in renewable energy areas. Europe is of course way ahead of us in SOLAR TOWERS, experiements in Tidal power, and we are just beginning to do the wind thing.

    I have been saying for a long time we need to think CELLULAR instead of global. My energy needs might be very small, and that of my neighbor, compared to someone else. How much energy production and thus carbon emmisions are we WASTING on large scale production and transmission? Start with the high emmsion "REGIONS" and scale down from their across the nation over 20 years.

    Solutions are what is required - for many reasons both environmental, economic, and political. We seem to be in a rush to save the planet, instead of rationally and calmly proceeding with the development of our civilization.

    Well you know Skye even if we disagree - or if I have questions - we can think through solutions that we both agree on. To me that is the essence of the issue anyway.

    Ricky wants to stuff us all into cities, and Doc wants to pooper scoop any dissent. That is not helpfull. I always enjoy STL's exhuberence and complicated graphics. And mostly look past the hyper adjective filled diatribes.

    But what are the solutions?


    I hope you had some debate classes at school as well. State your position, support it with facts, define solutions. Let the other guy talk. Don't get distracted by the baiting that gets you stuck in and endless feedback loop arguing the fundementals of your position.

    The resolution of the argument should be consensus on pragmatic solutions - not the argument itself.

    I have hogged the blog enough today.

    good day all.
    A pleasure cruise on the Bay of Biscayne during WinterStormKlaus



    Personally I'd have given a pass on indulging in such pleasure.
    Personally I'd have given a pass on the pleasure cruise.

    Blaugh! (Dang, got it on my shoes)
    169 Here's a graphic that might help. Hopefully it works.

    img
    src=http://www.skepticalscience.com/images/carbon_cycle.jpg>
    img
    src=http://www.skepticalscience.com/images/carbon_cycle.jpg>
    One more time.


    Quoting barryweather:
    One more time.

    "Before the industrial age, sources were balanced by sinks"


    Now hold on just a second. That would be a net change of zero! Does the author of that graphic really believe that CO2 was unchanging before we built our first steam-powered grain mill? Truth-be-told it is tied in some way to temps, which have been (generally) slowly increasing for 1000s of years (as has CO2).

    This is an example of oversimplification. I seriously expect that GulfPoet was looking for something with scientific support (data and methods).
    You guy thought stl was bad? Check out this greenhouse gas flow chart.Link
    170. Ugh...I think everyone would be throwing up...blahhhhh

    I was on a cruise during hurricane delilah (was doing a puerta vallerta vacation)...ship was sent waaaayyyy out to avoid the hurricane but MAN it didn't help much. I spent the entire vacation puking my guts up. Kids were sick too...it was so rocky that the kiddie pool on board was closed...the waves in the pool were tossing the little ones out of the pool onto the deck.
    Re: 134.

    GulfPoet...

    You obviously had a typo there.

    The number is going to be more like 200 billion.

    If it doesn't have a 'b' in front of 'illion' Congress aint interested. :-)
    Quoting GulfPoet:

    Well you know Skye even if we disagree - or if I have questions - we can think through solutions that we both agree on. To me that is the essence of the issue anyway.

    Ricky wants to stuff us all into cities, and Doc wants to pooper scoop any dissent. That is not helpfull. I always enjoy STL's exhuberence and complicated graphics. And mostly look past the hyper adjective filled diatribes.

    But what are the solutions?


    I hope you had some debate classes at school as well. State your position, support it with facts, define solutions. Let the other guy talk. Don't get distracted by the baiting that gets you stuck in and endless feedback loop arguing the fundementals of your position.

    The resolution of the argument should be consensus on pragmatic solutions - not the argument itself.

    I have hogged the blog enough today.

    good day all.
    Come back soon Gulf - most of us enjoy the information you provide. Don't believe you have run anyone off either! This topic is like religion; always conflict!
    This is an from an article by Richard Houghton from Woods Hole.
    "If the global totals for photosynthesis and respiration are not equal, carbon either accumulates on land or is released to the atmosphere. Unfortunately, the global rates of photosynthesis and respiration are neither known nor measured well enough to determine annual changes in carbon storage."
    Link
    "On the other hand, human use of the land, for example the clearing of forests for croplands, is relatively well documented, both historically and with satellites, and thus can be used to determine changes in the storage of carbon."
    "Concern about the consequences of a changing climate has led us to explore how forests might be used to withdraw carbon from the atmosphere. They have a significant potential for reducing the rate at which carbon builds up in the atmosphere (see "Using Forests to Sequester Carbon"), but the major contributor to climatic change, and hence the human activity most in need of change, is use of fossil fuels for energy. Advances in the technology of renewable energy sources, including wood-derived fuels, might reduce our reliance on fossil fuels and thus reduce global emissions of carbon dioxide significantly."

    Interesting. The unidentified carbon sink.Link
    This paper is a little older. He has a book mentioned at the beginning. Perhaps we should all read it to try to grasp the issue from a more scientific perspective. There is an extensive literature cited section at the end as well. I'm sure the book has an even bigger lit cited though I can not attest to it. (For those who can't stand general statements with no supporting scientific garbledygook.)

    The Carbon Cycle: Human Perturbations and Potential Management Options

    William H. Schlesinger
    Link
    Quoting barryweather:
    Interesting. The unidentified carbon sink.Link


    Very interesting. Thanks for posting.
    Quoting TampaSpin:

    BR>Just one major earthquake that would produce an enormous Tsunami could change the tilt of the Earth current axis......how many times has this happened in the past that we are not aware of and will it happen again...of course.....so the reality of it the Earth changes all the time.....GW is just a money making study for Science.....do we need this study probably! Should we take care of Mother Earth of course. But, all GW is simply put is theory....and thats all and not a good one at that when only a blink of the eye is being observed in time.


    pffft just stop
    This is much more interesting than the AGW topic:


    Bruce Springsteen announces world tour as he releases new CD 'Working on a Dream'


    But if y'all insist......


    Stimulus Plan: Non-Existent Unemployed Climate Modelers Get $140 Million

    President Barack Obama�s trillion dollar stimulus plan, has morphed into an appropriations bill devoid of debate. The process forgoes any pretense of targeting unemployed people and resources.

    For instance, the bill reads “Provided further, That not less than $140,000,000 shall be available for climate data modeling.” This raises the question of how many unemployed climate modelers are out there pounding the pavement.

    When presented with that question, last Friday, Pat Michaels, former president of the American Association of State Climatologists stated “I don�t know one unemployed modeler.” Whether or not another $140,000,000 for climate data modeling is a good idea, it is hard to see an immediate, economy-stimulating impact from this item. What’s the rush? Maybe they need to get all their modeling done before another cool year highlights how bad the models are.

    I guess he's hoping that that wealth will "trickle down" to us.
    For instance, the bill reads “Provided further, That not less than $140,000,000 shall be available for climate data modeling.”

    Can I be a Climate Model!? I hear Al Gordo likes brunettes....

    ;)
    I'm back and It snowed at least 2 inches and it is still going some radio stations say that the wintery mix will certainly close school tomorrow
    140,000,000 to climate modeling? Our tax dollars hard at work!!!
    Quoting NEwxguy:
    140,000,000 to climate modeling? Our tax dollars hard at work!!!


    I would prefer they divert some of that to hurricane research and/or the NHC...
    192. I agree.
    191. That almost as much as CEO's got in bonuses from the last bailout. >:(
    Fiji Meteorological Services
    Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number FIVE
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-F
    6:00 AM FST January 28 2009
    ==========================================

    Subject: Tropical Cyclone Warning for Tonga region

    A TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TONGA.

  • Special Weather Bulletin - TONGA

    At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression EIGHT-F (997 hPa) located at 19.8S 176.8W has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 to 30 knots within 120 NM from the center, possibly increasing to 35 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. The depression is reported as moving south-southwest at 8 knots. Position POOR based on multispectral enhanced infrared radar imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations.

    From the latest visible imagery the low level circulation center is well exposed about 36 NM to the west of deep convection. Tops has warmed significantly in the past 6 hours. Outflow fair to south but restricted elsewhere.

    Dvorak analysis based on shear pattern yielding DT=2.5 MET=PT=2.5

    Thus DT=2.5/2.5/D0.5/24 HRS

    System lies in an area of 35-40 knot shear, just south of upper ridge axis and downstream of an approaching upper trough. System steered south-southwest by low-level monsoon northerlies. CIMSS indicates decreasing shear to south of the track, hence there may still be a chance for TD EIGHT to intensify but only in a very short term

    Global models agree on moving the system south-southwest before weakening.

    POTENTIAL FOR 08F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

    Next Tropical Disturbance Advisory will be issued at about 02:30 AM UTC..
  • Quoting tornadofan:


    I would prefer they divert some of that to hurricane research and/or the NHC...

    Not until I get my battery...LOL
    Quoting calusakat:
    Have you ever considered Global Warming as a miracle?

    Somewhere around 2035 world population will be approaching 12 billion. Feeding those 12 billion will be done using land and sea. We will be eating produce, meat and fish products...all resources enhanced by the presence of higher levels of CO2. Meat and fish because those at the lower end of the food chain, eat plants.

    If it is warmer, and CO2 is higher, then the plants will grow larger and quicker...helping to feed those 12 billion.

    Not good enough for you? Somewhere near 2070 that population will approach 24 billion!! Feeding those people will be our most important challenge.

    So, do we start out on this quest by taxing those who grow cattle because of the fact that cattle pass gas? At wee bit anal don't you think?

    Perhaps we don't necessarily want the climate cooler, if the population does grow as predicted, we will need all the CO2 we can get to make our land and sea grow as much food as possible.

    Perhaps those living too close to the sea will be forced to relocate. Whatever we do, worrying about CO2 today when we are facing a potential planet destroying population explosion is arrogant and and based on sloppy science to boot.


    You are assuming a constant exponential growth graph... it is more like a Y^2/X graph... or it will level out eventually due to several factors... which i dont feel like listing but i could if you asked.

    Also, if your big problem is food, then look at this. If everyone became vegan (as in nothing to do with animals) everyone in Africa would be able to be fed with just what is used by the meat industry. That way, you don't have to kill innocent animals, and everyone gets fed. And global warming becomes an issue again.
    Quoting tornadofan:


    I would prefer they divert some of that to hurricane research and/or the NHC...


    This is NOAAs part of the stimulus:

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

    operations, research, and facilities

    For an additional amount for `Operations, Research, and Facilities', $400,000,000, for habitat restoration and mitigation activities.

    procurement, acquisition and construction

    For an additional amount for `Procurement, Acquisition and Construction', $600,000,000, for accelerating satellite development and acquisition, acquiring climate sensors and climate modeling capacity, and establishing climate data records: Provided further, That not less than $140,000,000 shall be available for climate data modeling.

    I guess NOAA could stear some of the money to a satellite (new quikscat!)


    Whole cookie jar
    Quoting TampaSpin:


    Sky your Liberal thinking will eat your heart out...


    Stop trying to make this a political debate... if someone had said something like "stupid conservative denialists" I would have said the same thing. Let's keep this a respectful and purely scientific debate. (Anyway, that argument is a fallacy (for either side) its the Ad hominem one.)
    Look at the featured article on Wikipedia. : )
    Re: 197.

    hurristat...Regarding the population leveling out, consider yourself asked. :-)

    Assuming the population in Africa grows at the same rate as global estimates, what happens when the population reaches double what it is today or triples what it is today in as in the projection for 2081?

    Observation...I have been reading that a strictly vegan diet has potentially serious pitfalls on the overall health of the individual...that the human body needs the protein found in meat and fish products. Does anyone else have differing views on that subject?
    Quoting calusakat:
    Re: 197.

    hurristat...Regarding the population leveling out, consider yourself asked. :-)

    Regarding Africa, what happens when the population reaches double what it is today or quadruples what it is today in as in the projection for 2070 ?

    Observation...I have been reading that a strictly vegan diet has potentially serious pitfalls on the overall health of the individual...that the human body needs the protein found in meat and fish products. Does anyone else have differing views on that subject?


    Okay, for the list... first of all, disease. There hasn't been a pandemic for at least a 100 years, which is a long time... but i am no means wishing it upon the human race.

    As countries become more industrialized, they stop having as many babies. In fact, Russia is losing 6 people per 1000 every year. Most of Europe have negative rates also.

    About the protein, many beans (soybeans, lima beans, etc.) contain the amino acids used to build those proteins. Because then your body produces those proteins yourself, they are in reality much more healthy for you. All of the nutrients many would think would be lacking from the diet are found before the animal eats it, so humans can get those nutrients too.

    And randomly, all our problems would be solved if we could figure out how to go faster than the speed of light and to find other planets suitable for living on so we could live on them. Support NASA!!! woot!

    And once Asia starts that trend, it could counteract the growth due to Africa.
    Sorry to crash the GW party and everything, but I have a quick hurricane announcement.

    The PSRs are finished for Gustav and Paloma.
    They started Gustav's off pretty dramatically too: "It briefly a Category 4 Hurricane..."
    verbs usually help...LOL.

    Wow... they lowered its maximum intensity from the initial data...
    This was interesting.. the artic vortex split a few days ago..Looks like it's trying to rebuilt, looks weaker & cloudier. Feb might not be as warm as Jan..certainly not the solid vortex that raged into March of last year dragging winter on.

    Poet~ Amy's right~ I shouldn't have put your name in front of the ya'll I was refuring to that have run off some bright minds through the years from here. You didn't do that. As concygirl added..You do bring some nice poems. Here's a link to one of the CO2 monitering satellites, it's europe's ENVISAT. There's some live CO2 monitering stuff in there. Japan just put one or is about to in a few days. I can't remember which ones of ours we use but I have seem them conferm atmos' rant on what is going on in the south (excellent by the way).. Living down wind of TX isn't all it's cracked up to being:) Oh & Your reference to Dr Masters~ Pooper scooper Masters? Your refuring to that article he said was crap. You understand that article? By their graph we had 1 mill sq less ice than last year on new years day & they headlined it~ we had as much on this new years day as 1978. That article was crap~ when the winter vortex gets going really has no bearing on how much ice melts in the summer. Resorting to name calling..tisk tisk, you sound more upset then you try & make me out to be..

    TampaSpin~ Is wanting to leave a less polluted world for my kids liberal or something? I really can't make sense of & don't know how to begin to respond to the Al Gore rant thing..maybe...puff, puff...pass?

    Ya'll do keep me entertained:)

    Taz~ saw they are planting less in Calif cause of that drought. Expect a raise in food costs.

    RE: 202. hurristat

    Interplanetary migration does have a certain ring to it.

    In the mean time, we have to deal with potentially crushing population growth.

    To repeat...Maybe Global Warming is a miracle that came just in time to save us all. Or at least to give us time to develop the technology for interplanetary migration. :-)
    Quoting conchygirl:
    Come back soon Gulf - most of us enjoy the information you provide. Don't believe you have run anyone off either! This topic is like religion; always conflict!


    Like religion? I wasn't aware there was a difference... they say you have to believe in GW after all...

    ;)

    *ducks*
    Quoting calusakat:
    RE: 202. hurristat

    Interplanetary migration does have a certain ring to it.

    In the mean time, we have to deal with potentially crushing population growth.

    To repeat...Maybe Global Warming is a miracle that came just in time to save us all. Or at least to give us time to develop the technology for interplanetary migration. :-)


    We could move all the Africans into developed countries, give them jobs... then they'd stop making so many darn babies. LOL ; )
    Quoting Cotillion:


    Like religion? I wasn't aware there was a difference... they say you have to believe in GW after all...

    ;)

    *ducks*


    Are there GW atheists? *joins Cotillion in the ducking club*... LOL... that's winter storm Kyrill there right (on your avatar)?
    Winter Storm/Windstorm/Gale Kyrill, yeah.

    205. Skyepony 10:57 PM GMT on January 27, 2009 Hide this comment.
    This was interesting.. the artic vortex split a few days ago..Looks like it's trying to rebuilt, looks weaker & cloudier. Feb might not be as warm as Jan..certainly not the solid vortex that raged into March of last year dragging winter on.


    Thanks for posting this...I have been meaning to look at it.

    I made a prediction that the Arctic sea ice would resume growing after the pause (correlated to last week's east coast cold spell and maritime Pacific airmass pumped to the Arcitc). But, if the vortex does not recover, sea ice may not resume growing at a normal rate for the date. Could I have been wrong? First time for everything (j/k).
    "Regarding Africa, what happens when the population reaches double what it is today or quadruples what it is today in as in the projection for 2070+?"

    I'm wondering where you're getting your population figures. The UN projection is for a less than 2.5x increase in population in Africa by 2150 (1 billion in 2008 to 2.3 billion in 2150). And 12 billion world population in 25 years? The UN is projecting 8.9 billion 40 years from now. That's a big difference.
    THE TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
    TONGA IS NOW CANCELLED.

    Special Weather Bulletin - Tonga (TD 08F)
    Oh how I long for the days of hurricane season...

    Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
    THE TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
    TONGA IS NOW CANCELLED.

    Special Weather Bulletin - Tonga (TD 08F)


    that's good.
    Quoting melwerle:
    Oh how I long for the days of hurricane season...



    Wonder if people on here are married to 'the season'...

    Can't live with it, can't live without it. ;)
    Quoting Cotillion:


    Wonder if people on here are married to 'the season'...

    Can't live with it, can't live without it. ;)


    That's a great explanation...

    Marriage is like a cage; one sees the birds outside desperate to get in, and those inside equally desperate to get out.- Montaigne
    Re: 212.

    pangean...Last time I looked it was the U S Census Bureau about two years ago. Went there today and they are projecting 9 billion by 2050. They are detailing changes to their numbers over the last couple of months.

    In another chart they project Midyear statistics with 9 billion by 2040.

    According to them, the population will double to 18 billion in another 41 years.

    Note: I have gone back and made the appropriate corrections in this thread to conform to the current US Census International Population Data.
    Cotillion, What does the upcoming week look like for y'all

    Regarding big oil company payoffs for wunderground bloggers, vegan diets and killing innocent animals:
    Where do I get in on the money? (except for Exxon - I am still not talking to them)
    Though I do like meat, maybe we should not be killing the innocent animals. Let's go after the guilty ones.

    Regarding Wunderground Pyrates and Steeler fans:
    Couldn't help but notice none of you have put your money where you mouth is TampaSpin/Portlight/SuperBowl Pool

    Regarding upcoming Atlantic Tropical Season:
    I am curious as to whether anyone has begun preparing. I know I need to replenish my hurricane supply shelf. Was fairly happy with last year's preps though.

    GO CARDINALS
    KEEP IT LOCAL
    FRIENDS DO NOT LET FRIENDS EAT IMPORTED SHRIMP
    FRIENDS DO NOT LET FRIENDS EAT IMPORTED SHRIMP
    Action: Quote | Ignore User

    Amen to that...
    Quoting KEHCharleston:
    Cotillion, What does the upcoming week look like for y'all

    Regarding big oil company payoffs for wunderground bloggers, vegan diets and killing innocent animals:
    Where do I get in on the money?
    Though I do like meat, maybe we should not be killing the innocent animals. Let's go after the guilty ones.


    GO CARDINALS
    KEEP IT LOCAL
    FRIENDS DO NOT LET FRIENDS EAT IMPORTED SHRIMP


    LOL... maybe the ones who are contributing to global warming and overpopulation...LOL...and I'm undecided on the Super Bowl... I traditionally like the Steelers, but I really like the Cardinals, too. Someone needs to try and convince me to their side... note, I'll be playing devil's advocate. And in keeping with my random thoughts today, you can buy vegan steaks that taste exactly like meat steaks... but they're made from soybeans instead.
    Say No To Drugs - Do Not Eat Imported Shrimp ;)
    Quoting KEHCharleston:
    Say No To Drugs - Do Not Eat Imported Shrimp ;)


    They're highly addictive... sometimes in large cities, there'll be imported shrimp dealers selling them... on a related note, the FBI just had a huge drug bust. They found 80 TONS!!! of imported shrimp... LOL
    Quoting presslord:
    FRIENDS DO NOT LET FRIENDS EAT IMPORTED SHRIMP
    Action: Quote | Ignore User

    Amen to that...


    Yeah, why?

    We have a lot of domestic shrimp caught by imported people. (Just teasing, here!)
    KEH....for the record....Bubba Gump's downtown does not serve local shrimp....makes me furious...
    Quoting atmoaggie:


    Yeah, why?

    We have a lot of domestic shrimp caught by imported people. (Just teasing, here!)


    I was gonna say, don't you live in Louisiana? Even I know what that is, and I'm in Michigan...LOL

    Question, and I can't tell from a distance (Michigan), but, are you guys making fun of it, or are you serious?
    atmo....I'm just glad somebody's making a living shrimping...our shrimping industry in SC is just about dead.....breaks my heart....
    I placed my www.portlight.org bumpersticker in a most appropriate place.
    Quoting surfmom:
    I placed my www.portlight.org bumpersticker in a most appropriate place.


    ...
    surf....Care to share a picture of that?
    vegan steaks that taste exactly like meat steaks... but they're made from soybeans instead.

    Ahh, but (there is ALWAYS a but) this article (which even has scientific references) details some potential very bad side effects of too much soybean intake.

    The part about reduced nutrient absorption is intriguing. My mom went on a anti-dairy and anti-wheat diet some years ago. Some problems before and all sorts of problems since. Hmm...
    Quoting KEHCharleston:
    Say No To Drugs - Do Not Eat Imported Shrimp ;)
    And another Amen.
    Using imported shrimp in a good gumbo is like using yellow snow in a pina colada.
    Quoting hurristat:


    I was gonna say, don't you live in Louisiana? Even I know what that is, and I'm in Michigan...LOL

    Question, and I can't tell from a distance (Michigan), but, are you guys making fun of it, or are you serious?


    I was poking at the huge Vietnamese contingent that are shrimpers here and in East Texas.

    What are you talking about?
    Quoting presslord:
    surf....Care to share a picture of that?


    Yup, as soon as it's a bit warmer.
    ...sorry...but....sometimes...I've just gotta have a chunck of dead cow....
    Quoting atmoaggie:
    vegan steaks that taste exactly like meat steaks... but they're made from soybeans instead.

    Ahh, but (there is ALWAYS a but) this article (which even has scientific references) details some potential very bad side effects of too much soybean intake.

    The part about reduced nutrient absorption is intriguing. My mom went on a anti-dairy and anti-wheat diet some years ago. Some problems before and all sorts of problems since. Hmm...


    then again, you could just not eat the soybean steaks... and you can eat wheat too... but anyway I commend anyone who decides to become vegan or vegetarian.
    Press - Coast does! Buys local produce as well.

    Not kidding at all about imported shrimp. Imported shrimp is not healthy and The South Carolina Coast has a shrimping industry that has suffered as well

    In addition:
    Keeping it local, saves transportation energy. And reduces the amount of time refrigeration is needed and the amount of additives to keep it looking fresh.

    Cut down on all that global warming ;)

    Quoting surfmom:


    Yup, as soon as it's a bit warmer.


    Can't wait for Spring...
    235 - quite the primal male.......

    For a brief time, after we raised the chickens, it was difficult to eat chicken.... but ours have names... the others don't (market) --so we got over it
    Quoting presslord:


    Can't wait for Spring...
    Me too -- I'm waiting to catch a dose of Spring Fever this year...
    Quoting surfmom:


    Yup, as soon as it's a bit warmer.


    either she doesn't get it or is ignoring it completely.... probably the latter... ; )
    yea KEH...most places serve local shrimp...but Gump's is such a tourist trap...I hate that people eat there and think they've had Lowcountry shrimp....

    I love the yellow snow analogy...
    Quoting hurristat:


    either she doesn't get it or is ignoring it completely.... probably the latter... ; )


    oh....fear not....she 'gets' it....
    Quoting hurristat:


    either she doesn't get it or is ignoring it completely.... probably the latter... ; )
    I caught it sweety.......
    Quoting presslord:


    Can't wait for Spring...
    54 days to go till spring
    Good Idea those Bumper Stickers for Portlight.org....... where'd you put yours Press??
    Quoting surfmom:
    I caught it sweety.......


    I know... that's why I said "probably the latter"...LOL... no offense. please. forgive me.
    I love the yellow snow analogy...

    Me, too. Us Louisiana folks are of the mind that if it wasn't grown here, caught here, harvested here, distributed from here, etc. (you get the idea), that meal will be below par, period.
    Awfully self-centered, but until we find something better...maybe that attitude is appropriate.
    Keeper you appeared!!! Thought you might have become an iceberg!!!! Howz it going up there in the Klondike?
    Quoting hurristat:


    I know... that's why I said "probably the latter" LOL


    Good, didn't want you to think I lost my edge.... It's the Lioness that Hunts
    press, I work in the shrimp industry. I work for the worlds largest PINK shrimp market here in Tampa. We are still alive and kicking with over 1 million pounds caught this year so far. your market is still there we buy the whites from the east coast twice a year.
    cold and now waiting on the snow thats coming
    severstorm....that's truly good to know....
    "According to them, the population will double to 18 billion in another 41 years."

    Where do you get that? According to the table on the US Census Bureau site, the world population growth rate in 2040 will be 0.64%. and falling. Even if we assumed a constant growth rate of 0.64%, it would take over 100 years for population to double, not 41.

    "If you would like, I can go back and change my numbers if you would like."

    Matters not to me - just wanted folks to be aware of your predilection for exaggeration.
    Quoting surfmom:


    Good, didn't want you to think I lost my edge.... It's the Lioness that Hunts


    which is kind of unfair, if you think about it... the male lions get to sit around and wait for the females to come back with the kill, and they don't have to do anything... it should be mutual hunting/eating... then again it's nature... oh well... and i modified the commment you quoted.
    you tell those shrimpers to keep catching and we will buy them all. believe it or not most of the white shrimps are sold to the people in the midwest. our biggest customer is Kroger.
    It is nice to go down the street and buy fresh gulf Shrimp...If my job causes me to have to leave the gulf coast I might have to change professions.
    Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
    cold and now waiting on the snow thats coming
    Yes, I saw that coming.... sorry... hopefully not too bad.

    Saw some Monarch's today -- good sign spring is on it's way
    Quoting severstorm:
    you tell those shrimpers to keep catching and we will buy them all. believe it or not most of the white shrimps are sold to the people in the midwest. our biggest customer is Kroger.


    So that's why my shrimp taste so good...
    Hurristat - Life is unfair -- but we learn to live with it...
    Quoting surfmom:
    Yes, I saw that coming.... sorry... hopefully not too bad.

    Saw some Monarch's today -- good sign spring is on it's way


    what are those again??? something called "butterflies"?? and they're orange and black?? what the heck is orange??? everyone knows the color spectrum ranges from white snow to white-gray snow to gray snow to black-gray snow to black snow... occasionally an anomalous yellow will join in, but what the heck is orange???


    LOL
    Real fun to go out on the flats on a full moon -- and catch them fresh w/ Flashlights

    Also been known to cook up leftover bait shrimp
    Quoting surfmom:
    Hurristat - Life is unfair -- but we learn to live with it...


    sigh....
    you got it. friends dont let friends eat imported shrimp. EAT LOCAL plenty out there.
    severstorm...there's a real tricky inlet/outlet between Kiawah and Folly Islands....there's an old family of shrimpers down there who can do it in their sleep...if I radio ahead and time it right, they'll let me follow them offshore...great people...they'll shrimp 'til they die...
    I have Butterfly plants throughout my yard and special plants (dutchmans' pipe ) that specifically attract the black swallowtail -- the back yard fills w/ butterflies -- we bring in the chyrsalis' and let them "hatch" inside the house... it's a marvel to watch them emerge. -- fun to hold then as they dry their wings.... then we set them free
    Quoting surfmom:
    Yes, I saw that coming.... sorry... hopefully not too bad.

    Saw some Monarch's today -- good sign spring is on it's way
    it will be mid may before i see a monarch
    press, i know the type of shrimpers your talkin about. we have 85 boats and when gas went really high only the dieharts were out there shrimpen.
    What are "Butterfly" pants?!?!?!
    Quoting severstorm:
    you got it. friends dont let friends eat imported shrimp. EAT LOCAL plenty out there.


    See y'all later. Dinner time...yes, we are having La shrimp. (How did you all know, anyway?)
    There should be an "L" there.... otherwise my imagination flies with that line
    Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
    it will be mid may before i see a monarch


    Poor Dear !!!
    In the depth of winter, I finally learned that within me lay an invincible summer.
    camus
    Quoting presslord:
    What are "Butterfly" pants?!?!?!


    ROFLMAO
    ...ooopppsss....my bad....
    oppss or not press you sure are a funny guy. LOL




    Hurricanes wack Louisiana Fishing Industry

    We went down to the bayous of Southwest Louisiana to talk with some fishermen and discuss the long term impacts of violent hurricanes and sad US policy which may make them an extinct species.


    ROTFL.......you're one of a kind... that's for sure.... and damn funny
    Quoting Patrap:




    Looks like they caught more birds than shrimp there...LOL...
    by the way severstorm...those same shrimpers I was tellin' ya about...

    If they don't know you and you try to follow them out....they'l run your butt aground....
    Quoting surfmom:
    ROTFL.......you're one of a kind... that's for sure.... and damn funny


    and shameless, too... I mean, that dress photo would be hard to explain to future employers.
    Pat....that shrimpboat pic is a thing of true beauty.....
    if y'all don't get involved in one of our Spring Relief Walks I'm gonna pose in a bikini.....
    Trawling late in the evening press is the Best thing ..in Life next to er,..



    Eating Shrimp.

    Sure is..
    Patrap, that is so true in the industry. US will not help anymore.
    Gustav and Ike hurt shrimpers in Tex and La..
    BAd..

    ..but they strong folks. Most Everywhere ya find um.
    Quoting severstorm:
    Patrap, that is so true in the industry. US will not help anymore.


    I feel kinda outta place... I'm from MI... let's see, what do we have... cars... to bad the US doesnt want to help... Bush only did it for his image... sigh...
    Quoting presslord:
    if y'all don't get involved in one of our Spring Relief Walks I'm gonna pose in a bikini.....


    do you have one up here for Dr. Masters and I??

    a spring relief walk, that is.
    hurristat....yea...we do....and you're in charge of it...check your WU mail in a minute...
    Press -- please -- Not that -- there's a few dudes around with some great Pyrate Wear -- check out their fashion sense...

    also not to hurt your feelings, there comes a time when the bikini should be packed away........ and then we're back to the shaving dilemma
    Quoting surfmom:
    Press -- please -- Not that -- there's a few dudes around with some great Pyrate Wear -- check out their fashion sense...

    also not to hurt your feelings, there comes a time when the bikini should be packed away........ and then we're back to the shaving dilemma


    that reminds me of this French chic I picked up in Key West in 1984...oh.......nevermind.....
    press you dont have to go there, you said it all when you said Key West. LOL
    About the shrimp, that was awesome!

    Boiled shrimp, angel hair pasta, sweet yellow bell pepper, remoulade dressing, and asparagus. Mix it all up and mmmm.

    My wife's invention. Spectacular. Worthy of lunch for a couple of days or for house guests. She is the greatest.
    Re: 254. pangean

    your predilection for exaggeration.

    ?????

    Hmmm... I use dated data that I believed to be accurate and when challenged, I went out and found the data; then I presented the new, differing information I found and offered to correct the numbers in my past posts in this current blog and you stoop to accusing me of having a...what did you say?...predilection for exaggeration.

    If I had a 'predilection for exaggeration', I would have attempted to trivialize the whole concept much like the AGW Flat Landers do when challenged with current weather patterns which clearly fly in the face of the AGW FL'ers

    If you had bothered to go to the site yourself, you would have seen that they had altered the manner in which they determined the future population and that they were making sure that every one knew about it too.

    Too bad the AGW Flat Landers don't have as much pride in their work to make sure their data is as accurate and current.

    BTW the information in my posts in this thread have been corrected to reflect those numbers presented by the US Census Bureau.
    Quoting presslord:
    hurristat....yea...we do....and you're in charge of it...check your WU mail in a minute...


    same for you, at least the last clause...
    atmo....sounds good....am gonna pitch the spouse on giving it a try...will let ya know....
    I'm out for the evening --- can't say what i'll be dreaming tonight after hanging here......

    www.portlight.org
    Quoting atmoaggie:
    About the shrimp, that was awesome!

    Boiled shrimp, angel hair pasta, sweet yellow bell pepper, remoulade dressing, and asparagus. Mix it all up and mmmm.

    My wife's invention. Spectacular. Worthy of lunch for a couple of days or for house guests. She is the greatest.


    Stop your making me hungry lol.
    Hey all i'm out too. gotta get up early to get them shrimp. enjoyed the conversation see ya all later.
    i have to go too...
    yup....gonna go work on my beauty rest....see y'all tomorrow....
    Well I started quite the little firestorm didn't I lol? Perhaps next time I'll start a discussion about politics or religion and see how well that goes over.

    Gulfpoet: We can tell that the increase in carbon in the atmosphere is due to fossil fuel burning by looking at the ratio of Carbon-13/Carbon-12 isotopes. I'm don't think we've identified all the carbon sinks and sources, but we do know the total concentration is increasing and we know approximately how many tons we are putting into the atmosphere.

    Calusakat: I'm not sure I completely buy the fact that the data is too corrupt to draw conclusions from. While there are probably isolated examples of poorly maintained stations I'm not sold on the fact that this can account for the current warming trend. Multiple sources all seem to agree on the rate and overall change in temperature (such as GISS and HADCRUT). If the data was sufficiently corrupt to show a warming trend when there actually was none, wouldn't it be very simple to prove that it was through proxy measurements, such as tree rings or oxygen isotope analysis? Not to mention the satellite temperatures can be used against surface stations.

    I've never heard AGW referred to as a law. It's a theory and always will be. Vigorous debate is how a theory is refined and improved. I'm inclined to believe the science is very strong when there is such a lack disagreement in the primary literature.

    And just because I haven't started enough debate round here:

    Pittsburgh's defense will be no match for Larry Fitzgerald and the Cardinals offense.

    (That last part may or may not be a blatant troll)
    "Too bad the AGW Flat Landers don't have as much pride in their work to make sure their data is as accurate and current."

    Are you from Vermont?

    I have 2 SuperBowl tickets for Sale.....if interested please let me know.
    Quoting presslord:
    yup....gonna go work on my beauty rest....see y'all tomorrow....

    Tomorrow? Are ya sure that would be enough beauty rest?
    Re: 302. pangean "Are you from Vermont?"

    What is it to you, if I am?
    "What is it to you, if I am?"

    That's the only place that I've ever heard the term flat lander. Quite the put-down, I understand.
    Also Seastep, thanks for that thing on smoking, I had no idea it was so strongly genetic.
    Geez, guys, I came here looking for some weather highlights, and all u can talk about is food!!!

    And it's not even crawfish (spiny lobster) either . . .
    Re: 301. BCtotheG
    **************
    'Calusakat: I'm not sure I completely buy the fact that the data is too corrupt to draw conclusions from. While there are probably isolated examples of poorly maintained stations I'm not sold on the fact that this can account for the current warming trend. Multiple sources all seem to agree on the rate and overall change in temperature (such as GISS and HADCRUT). If the data was sufficiently corrupt to show a warming trend when there actually was none, wouldn't it be very simple to prove that it was through proxy measurements, such as tree rings or oxygen isotope analysis? Not to mention the satellite temperatures can be used against surface stations.
    **************

    A person can draw conclusions from any source they want, even corrupt data...it is still a conclusion.

    Perhaps it IS time to begin those proxy measurements.

    What proof do we have as to the calibration accuracy of satellite temperature measurement. Exactly what causes the satellite temperature measurement to skew from pinpoint accuracy?

    ***************

    I've never heard AGW referred to as a law. It's a theory and always will be. Vigorous debate is how a theory is refined and improved. I'm inclined to believe the science is very strong when there is such a lack disagreement in the primary literature.

    ************

    Not in the minds of the AGWFL'ers. AGW is a fact because they say so and no amount of conflicting data is even allowed to see the light of day in their eyes. That is why I refer to them as Flat Landers...AGW is a LAW there is no theory to it.

    The very fact that there is such a stark lack of disagreement in primary literature should cause a prudent person to step back and question how that could be possible. So many scientists and they are all in virtual lockstep? Something is rotten here and it stinks to high heaven.
    Pittsburgh's defense will be no match for Larry Fitzgerald and the Cardinals offense.

    .......................................
    They said the same thing about Fla's defense not being a match for Alabama's Cinderilla offense.
    I love my Tide brothers, don't get me wrong.
    But, I think the best thing to do is just pack a lunch and bring it on. Talk is cheap. Go Gators...Go Steelers LOL
    Quoting theshepherd:
    Pittsburgh's defense will be no match for Larry Fitzgerald and the Cardinals offense.

    .......................................
    They said the same thing about Fla's defense not being a match for Alabama's Cinderilla offense.
    I love my Tide brothers, don't get me wrong.
    But, I think the best thing to do is just pack a lunch and bring it on. Talk is cheap. Go Gators...Go Steelers LOL


    Warner and the Cards will be hard to beat....He won't turn the ball over....and Fitzgerald will go off as the Secondary for Pitt is banged up the last i heard...
    Don't forget about my SuperBowl Pool fundraiser at my Blog......One person has signed up thus far....the longer you wait the chance you take that someone else will take the points you wanted....don't delay.
    Re: 306. pangean
    That's the only place that I've ever heard the term flat lander.

    ***************

    A couple of centuries ago scientists believed with all their hearts that the world was flat.

    To even suggest otherwise was to be met with accusations of being a heretic.

    Today's AGW folks act in much the same way. Don't even dare think about having a differing view. Their response is so vehement against those who would doubt their correctness that it is likely responsible for the seeming lack of opposing viewpoints on the subject.

    Hence my term 'Flat Landers'

    The AGW solution is simple.

    1. Strict adherence to and verification of Placement Protocol for each station.

    2. Strict adherence to and verification of the Calibration Protocol of all instruments at each station.

    A simple yet concise solution that would put an end the most serious concerns regarding accurate data.

    Quoting TampaSpin:


    Warner and the Cards will be hard to beat....He won't turn the ball over....and Fitzgerald will go off as the Secondary for Pitt is banged up the last i heard...
    Ouch tampa. Bad karma talk.
    I'm sitting quitely until the whistle blows...LOL
    Calusakat:

    Actually, it's my understanding that the satellite temperatures were never pinpoint accurate to begin with and that a simple mercury thermometer is more accurate. The satellites have to go through all sorts of mathematical calibrations in order to take temperature. I'm not knowledgeable enough to go into any more detail than that though.

    At this point I'm somewhat at a loss as to what we're debating... Are you specifically disagreeing with this and this? Because if so that's quite an accusation.

    Primary literature is in lockstep with evolution, does it stink to high heaven too, or are they in lockstep because of the relative strength of their theory? Which would occam's razor support?

    I've never heard anybody called a heretic for disagreeing with global warming. It's a theory just like evolution, gravity, and electromagnetism. It could very easily be overturned by observation yet so far has not been.
    Quoting BCtotheG:
    Calusakat:

    Actually, it's my understanding that the satellite temperatures were never pinpoint accurate to begin with and that a simple mercury thermometer is more accurate. The satellites have to go through all sorts of mathematical calibrations in order to take temperature. I'm not knowledgeable enough to go into any more detail than that though.

    At this point I'm somewhat at a loss as to what we're debating... Are you specifically disagreeing with this and this? Because if so that's quite an accusation.

    Primary literature is in lockstep with evolution, does it stink to high heaven too, or are they in lockstep because of the relative strength of their theory? Which would occam's razor support?

    I've never heard anybody called a heretic for disagreeing with global warming. It's a theory just like evolution, gravity, and electromagnetism. It could very easily be overturned by observation yet so far has not been.


    Sorry to interupt but, how do we know what the Temperature in 1880 was. I don't know of any accurate measurement of studies that was being done to the point that one would conclude was accurate......am i wrong......please show me proof of this!
    People who deny global warming should be placed in the same category as holocaust deniers - delusional bigots who deny obvious scientific reality to justify their own selfish prejudice.
    I found it kinda slow.. Atlantic swell animation of Klaus & the storm before.
    I'm pretty sure the temperature in 1880 comes directly from instrumentation. The International Meteorological Organization was founded in 1873, so I'd have a hard time believing there wasn't at least some form of constant temperature observation going on.
    wow look at this the nws in corpus christi didn't mentioned that any frozen precip was going to fall in their cwa turns out their wrong
    Victoria,TX
    Updated: 11:29 PM CST on January 27, 2009
    37 °F
    Light Snow Mist
    Windchill: 26 °F
    Humidity: 93%
    Dew Point: 36 °F
    Wind: 23 mph from the North
    Wind Gust: 32 mph

    000
    WWUS43 KPAH 280319
    WSWPAH

    URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
    ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
    919 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2009

    ...WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT...

    MOISTURE OVERRIDING AN AIRMASS WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
    CONTINUES TO CAUSE FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE MIDDLE
    MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION.

    ADDITIONAL HEAVY ICE ACCUMULATIONS ALONG WITH SOME SLEET AND SNOW
    ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR.

    THIS BAND OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
    DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY.

    KYZ001-002-006-009-012-017-021-022-MOZ114-281130-
    /O.CON.KPAH.IS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-090128T1800Z/
    FULTON-HICKMAN-GRAVES-CALLOWAY-TRIGG-CHRISTIAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-
    NEW MADRID-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HICKMAN...CLINTON...MAYFIELD...MURRAY...
    CADIZ...HOPKINSVILLE...GREENVILLE...ELKTON...NEW MADRID
    919 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2009

    ...ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM CST
    WEDNESDAY...

    AN ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM CST WEDNESDAY.

    FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE
    OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIDESPREAD ICE ACCUMULATIONS ON EXPOSED SURFACES
    HAVE INCREASED UP TO AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER WESTERN
    KENTUCKY. AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF TO AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION IS
    EXPECTED...WITH STORM TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH
    AND A HALF.

    THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF THIS
    MAGNITUDE WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO POWER LINES AND TREES.
    PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES. ROADS WILL
    BE HEAVILY IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY AFTER TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
    20S TONIGHT.

    AN ICE STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS
    WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. KEEP AN EXTRA
    FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER ON HAND. STAY AWAY FROM DOWNED
    POWER LINES.

    $$

    ILZ075>078-080>086-088-089-092-093-MOZ076-086-087-100-107>111-
    281130-
    /O.CON.KPAH.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-090128T1200Z/
    JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
    WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-UNION IL-JOHNSON-ALEXANDER-
    PULASKI-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-RIPLEY-
    BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
    MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...
    CARMI...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...JONESBORO...VIENNA...
    CAIRO...MOUND CITY...PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL...CAPE GIRARDEAU...
    PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...BLOOMFIELD...
    SIKESTON
    919 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2009

    ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
    WEDNESDAY...

    A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
    WEDNESDAY.

    FREEZING RAIN WAS TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF
    EASTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...FREEZING RAIN
    PERSISTED TONIGHT OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...WHERE
    CATASTROPHIC TREE AND POWER LINE DAMAGE WAS UNDERWAY. UP TO TWO
    INCHES OF ICE HAD ACCUMULATED ON EXPOSED SURFACES IN SOUTHEAST
    MISSOURI...WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

    FREEZING RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW AS THE
    NIGHT PROGRESSES. SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD TOTAL UP TO
    TWO INCHES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

    THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE
    ACCUMULATIONS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON
    TRAVEL. PLEASE CONSIDER DELAYING OR CANCELING TRAVEL THROUGH
    WEDNESDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO POWER LINES AND TREES
    WILL CONTINUE.

    $$

    ILZ087-090-091-094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ003>005-007-008-010-011-
    013>016-018>020-MOZ112-281130-
    /O.CON.KPAH.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-090128T1800Z/
    GALLATIN-POPE-HARDIN-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK-
    SPENCER-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CRITTENDEN-
    LYON-CALDWELL-UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
    MISSISSIPPI-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHAWNEETOWN...GOLCONDA...
    ELIZABETHTOWN...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...
    POSEYVILLE...EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...BARDWELL...
    WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...SMITHLAND...BENTON...MARION...EDDYVILLE...
    PRINCETON...MORGANFIELD...DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HENDERSON...
    OWENSBORO...CALHOUN...CHARLESTON
    919 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2009

    ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM CST
    WEDNESDAY...

    A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM CST
    WEDNESDAY.

    FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST
    INDIANA...AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
    WIDESPREAD ICE ACCUMULATIONS ON EXPOSED SURFACES HAVE INCREASED UP
    TO AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THIS REGION. AN ADDITIONAL ONE
    HALF TO AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...WITH STORM TOTAL
    ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF.

    EVENTUALLY THE FREEZING RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW AS
    THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PROGRESS. STORM TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP
    TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE LIKELY IN SOME AREAS.

    THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF THIS
    MAGNITUDE WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO POWER LINES AND TREES.
    PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES. ROADS WILL
    BE HEAVILY IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY AFTER TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
    20S TONIGHT.

    $$

    CRAMER






    D LOCAL ROAD AND WEATHER INFORMATION


    Douglasdao,

    Statements like this undermine the debate. Climate skeptics are not bigots nor delusional. Their opinion is based on what the conclusions they draw from the arguments. To attribute moral or personality traits based on this only serves to further widen a gap that shouldn't exist to begin with. It turns the issue into an 'us vs. them' situation, which isn't what scientific debate is about. A scientific theory stands only by its own merit and that's where the debate should be taking place.
    Quoting douglasdao:
    People who deny global warming should be placed in the same category as holocaust deniers - delusional bigots who deny obvious scientific reality to justify their own selfish prejudice.


    WHAT AN IDIOT..........AND STUPID COMMENT....OBVIOUS TYPICAL LIBERAL THINKING. AL GORE WOULD BE SO PROUD OF YOU........LMAO AS EVERYONE ELSE IS LAUGHING AT YOU ALSO EXCEPT A LIBERAL.
    Fiji Meteorological Services
    GALE WARNING FOR TD 08F
    ========================================

    At 06:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression EIGHT-F (997 hPa) located at 21.0S 177.4W is reported as moving south-southwest at 8 knots.

    Position POOR

    Clockwise winds of 30 to 35 knots between 30 to 120 NM away from the center in the southern quadrant. Wind possibly increasing to 35 knots close to the center in the next 12 to 18 hours.
    Fiji Meteorological Services
    Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number SEVEN
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-F
    18:00 PM FST January 28 2009
    ========================================

    At 06:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression EIGHT-F (997 hPa) located at 21.0S 177.4W has 10 minute sustained winds of 30-35 knots between 30 to 120 NM away from the center in the southern quadrant, possibly increasing to 35 knots closer to the center in 12 to 18 hours. The depression is reported as moving south-southwest at 8 knots. Position POOR based on multispectral/visible imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations.

    The low level circulation center lies along the western edge of the dense convection and is beginning to slip under the central dense overcast. Sea surface temperatures is around 28C. The system lies to the south of the subtropcial ridge axis in an area of upper diffluence.

    Dvorak analysis based on shear pattern yielding DT=PT=3.0 MET=2.5 FT=2.5

    Thus T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24 HRS

    System lies in an area of 20 knot shear just downstream of an approaching upper short-wave trough. System steered south-southwest by an upper level ridge to the east. CIMSS indicates decreasing shear to the south, hence there is a good chance that TD EIGHT will intensify to cyclone status in the very short term.

    Global models are not keen on the system and still agree on moving the system south-southwest and weakening it further.

    POTENTIAL FOR 08F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS IS HIGH.


    Good Morning All..
    Wilmington is 54 and there is thick fog outside
    Today will be 65 with a chance of rain
    Not bad for January in NC!!!
    Quoting douglasdao:
    People who deny global warming should be placed in the same category as holocaust deniers - delusional bigots who deny obvious scientific reality to justify their own selfish prejudice.

    Rednecks also live in ivory towers,I see.
    A bit prejudiced to paint with such a wide brush, maybe?
    People who live in glass houses...but that would be too assuming. Maybe better prefaced; neurotics "build" glass houses...
    Your anxiety might need to take a pill.
    Jewish Holocaust ? Please take two with a glass of warm milk and go back to bed before your vitreous psychology exsposes more.
    I'll speak to those who have problems with swallowing the GW science as I am curious as to why they see differently, but you might want to assume the lotus position and contemplate the Golden Rule...

    mornin' nad
    Hi Shep!

    You know it's too early for that GW stuff LOL
    I'm done.
    Just a little time on the bag before breakfast.
    Shep
    I like your special effects defending the ARK!!!!!
    shhhhhh
    It's top secret
    They closed school today!!! But there's only 2 or so inches so sledding is inprobable.
    Good morning,

    Possible weak to moderate NorthEastern developing in the NE GOM late Sunday into Monday. Should be interesting to see if GFS keeps up the same strength or if it keeps the system at all as we still have a couple days to go until it materializes and cold air again for FL.
    Re: 315. BCtotheG

    Right here on this blog people have been derisively called 'denialists' for differing with AGW. Is it a 'Law' or is it a 'Theory'...the AGWfl'ers conduct themselves as if it were a 'LAW'.

    Denialist...Heretic...all vehement accusations against someone whose only crime was disagreeing with the CTW of a group.

    I do believe that I have made it clear that I am shining the light of truth on the fact that the instrumentation on which the AGWFL'ers are relying, has not been subjected to the same rigorous standards as other research fields.

    By neglecting to demand rigorous standards from those stations and instruments, the PhD's involved have not followed pure science . Are they lazy, were they not taught the basics of scientific research or do they have preconceived political views that color their evaluation of the data. I am not going to touch that with a ten foot pole.

    I have been talking about Instrument Calibration and the need for established specific periodic calibrations of each and every station in the system that is responsible for generating those, currently, questionable graphs you linked to.

    I have been talking about Placement Protocols which determine where each and every station can be placed and, likewise, the periodic reevaluation of each station to verify continuing compliance with the Placement Protocols.
    We are now on site and will be presenting on our Hurricane Ike Relief effort shortly. Live webcast.
    And now for something completely different...

    Please watch the Portlight Live Webcast by clicking on the link provided on Post # 337
    The winter storm rolling across the US has killed 19 so far. Huge losses of power. Arkansas is having their largest outage ever. Hoping to restore in days, not weeks..
    340. P451
    Got about 3 inches of cement here in central jersey. Was probably around four or five inches of snow before the past three hours of mostly rainy mix compacted it. I'd rather shovel a foot of powder over this schlep!

    Of note for my area this is probably the seventh storm this season so far that was first predicted to have the low center move south of us for days and with about 12 hours until the storm were to move through the low was then suddenly shifted to move to our west (sw to ne) or to our north (w to e) giving us the warm sector.

    They're usually only wrong half the time in my area as it's a crossroads of sort for weather but this year they've been wrong every single storm.

    Good morning pope-els
    Nicely done Portlight. Fun watching Paul and John at work.

    Skyepony
    Thanks for the link. Gives a new meaning to 'when hell freezes over'.
    Temperatures nearing 50C degrees
    Tom Saunders, Wednesday January 28, 2009 - 19:43 EDT

    The heatwave scorching the southeast of the country is reaching unprecedented levels with temperatures soaring to nearly 50C degrees in some parts of South Australia.

    Murray Bridge had the states high on Wednesday, reaching an unbearable 48C degrees, 19C above the mid summers average and their hottest day on record.

    Other towns to climb above 45C included Keith, Kyancutta, Cleve, Naracoorte, Port Augusta, Snowtown, Wudinna and Ceduna. Even Encounter Bay on the southern coast hit 46C, a remarkable 22C degrees above average.

    Darkness is bringing little relief with overnight minimums hovering near 30C degrees, around 15C above average.

    Unfortunately the heatwave is still only in its early stages with 40C degree temperatures set to continue over much of South Australia into the weekend.




    Weatherzone 2009
    Good morning everyone......
    Morning Tampa..

    Mid City Station, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
    Updated: 8:27 AM CST on January 28, 2009
    Light Rain
    55.4 °F
    Light Rain Mist
    Quoting Patrap:
    Morning Tampa..

    Mid City Station, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
    Updated: 8:27 AM CST on January 28, 2009
    Light Rain
    55.4 °F
    Light Rain Mist


    Hi Pat....did i see it right Corpus Cristi was getting snow...
    Pat looks like there may be a chance for some snow for you again.....wonder how many times its ever snowed twice in your area in the same winter season........
    Wow Aussie, that's 118F..how miserable.

    Pat~ i'm jelious of your rain..
    Yesterday afternoon almost broke out the A/C,..but now that N wind is a kickin in
    .
    Its got that Blue Northern Taste and Look to the clouds.
    Not quite like Dec 11th 2008.

    But Im wearing my Homer Slippers.
    We saw the worst cold,in 63 and 89 here in my Life. 89 was awful,Dec 22-25.14f Lo,and low 20s thru the days.
    Was,awful.
    Plumbers made money though.

    GOM IR Loop Link

    Area forecast discussion
    National Weather Service New Orleans la
    345 am CST Wednesday Jan 28 2009


    Short term...
    temperatures are falling rapidly behind the cold front moving through
    this morning. Ahead of the front we see temperatures in the middle 60s and
    once the front passes...temperatures fall into the middle 40s brining about
    a 20 degree departure within about an hour. Middle level jet bringing
    moisture over the shallow cold air causing gentle lift and a large
    area of light cold rain. The front should be bisecting the area by
    morning rush hour. The temperature trend should continue over the entire
    area even through middle day...so at least over the Easter half of
    the area people will leave this morning with temperatures in the 60s and
    back home in the middle 40s. Instability is not an asset for this
    front and ts should not occur over land. Farther south where there
    are higher deep and ambient temperatures...ts will be able to break out
    along and ahead of the front later today.
    The second paragraph this am here is interesting.

    Long term...
    another reinforcing surge of cool dry air will move back in for
    Friday morning to keep things cool for the remainder of the week.
    Another system gets started Saturday over the northwest Gulf and East Texas
    and brings moisture warmth and cloudy skies back to the area. Rain
    should begin as well by Sunday as a surface low gets started. This low
    will have some much needed support from an upper level trough that
    will be digging across the area. The surface low deepens rapidly into
    Monday morning as it lifts out. Some strong ts may evolve with the
    help of this low by late Sun night and Monday morning over coastal
    sections of southeast la but mainly over the Gulf waters. Timing strength
    and placement of this system will be better resolved with later
    forecasts. Cool temperatures will once again flood back into the area
    Monday through Wednesday.

    About 15 cm (6 in) total is expected with this storm over the Northeast here in S. Ontario (my location), we could have about half a metre of snow on the ground by February.
    Quoting theshepherd:

    Rednecks also live in ivory towers,I see.
    A bit prejudiced to paint with such a wide brush, maybe?
    People who live in glass houses...but that would be too assuming. Maybe better prefaced; neurotics "build" glass houses...
    Your anxiety might need to take a pill.
    Jewish Holocaust ? Please take two with a glass of warm milk and go back to bed before your vitreous psychology exsposes more.
    I'll speak to those who have problems with swallowing the GW science as I am curious as to why they see differently, but you might want to assume the lotus position and contemplate the Golden Rule...

    Shep - good response -- you crack me up!
    Cuba waits for a new cold front for Friday with another very cold day Saturday and strong winds of the north-northeast. A low pressure will form in the Gulf of Mexico having impelled another cold front at beginnings of February with strong storm possibility in the Cuban West.