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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Winter Storm Jonas: Fourth Strongest Nor'easter since 1950

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 5:34 PM GMT on January 29, 2016

The massive blizzard that rocked the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. last weekend, killing at least 58 and leaving over $2 billion in damage, has been rated the 4th most severe snowstorm to hit the area in the past 66 years, said NOAA. A Category 4 or “Crippling” rating was given to the storm using NOAA’s Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale, also known as NESIS. NESIS scores are a function of the area affected by the snowstorm, the amount of snow, and the number of people living in the path of the storm. Wikipedia has a list of NESIS rankings based on the original scale (created by Paul Kocin and Louis Uccellini] as well as a revised version implemented by NOAA in 2005.

The only stronger storms on the NESIS scale since 1950, according to NOAA, were:

Category 5 - March 1993, Mid-Atlantic/New England
Category 5 - January 1996, Midwest/Mid-Atlantic/New England
Category 4 – March 1960, Midwest/Mid-Atlantic/New England

Insurance broker Aon Benfield said economic losses from the blizzard would likely be at least $2 billion, and added that a similar storm system in January 1996 caused $4.6 billion in losses.


Figure 1. Residents were forced to walk in the streets of Washington, D.C., during and after Winter Storm Jonas. Image credit: Joe Flood, NOAA.

Jonas also ranks high on NOAA’s Regional Snowfall Index
Another way to view Jonas is through the lens of the Regional Snowfall Index (RSI). According to NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, NESIS “can be thought of as a quasi-national index that is calibrated to Northeast snowstorms,” whereas the RSI examines each region of the country independently.

On the RSI, Jonas ranks #6 out of the top 200 Northeast snowstorms since 1900, which is slightly lower than the NESIS ranking (again, only the Northeast region alone is considered when calculating this RSI value). Interestingly, when you look at the total area affected by snowfall over the Northeast region, Jonas was quite unimpressive: #199 out of 200! It was the large snowfall amounts and the large number of people affected that pushed up Jonas’s total RSI rating for the region.

For the Ohio Valley, the RSI for the Jan. 22-24 storm ranks #12 among the top 200 snowstorms, thanks to the heavy snows that struck Tennessee, Kentucky, Ohio, and West Virginia early on. For the Southeast region, the storm came in as #14 due to the heavy amounts in the higher terrain of North and South Carolina and across much of Virginia. Thanks to Stu Ostro, The Weather Channel, for background on the RSI.


Figure 2. Snowfall from Jan. 22 to 24, 2016, was spread across the the Ohio Valley, Southeast, and Northeast regions of the United States as defined in the Regional Snowfall Index (RSI). Image credit: NOAA/NCEI.

More reflections on the big storm
Steve Gregory has an a new Thursday post, Blizzard Overview and Why NYC Got Much More Snow Than Forecast, and wunderblogger Lee Grenci offers his thoughts on the storm in his latest post, Reflections on the "Blizzard" of 2016: A Rant about Transferring Energy to the Coast.

We’ll be back late Friday afternoon with an update on El Niño and California rainfall.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson



Winter Weather Extreme Weather Extreme Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks doks!
bob or jeff how dos winter storm memo from 2013 rank with winter storm Jonas on the NESIS scale?
Thank you both for those stats; most remarkable thing is the crippling nature of this storm when juxtaposed against current temps across a large portion of the South-Mid West today due to the warm-dry E-Pac flow into the mid-west. I hope you address this in the post later as to how this strong El Nino compares with past ones in terms of these temperature extremes across Conus in a short period of time (in a strong El Nino Winter):

Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database



Quoting 2. Tazmanian:

bob or jeff how dos winter storm memo from 2013 rank with winter storm Jonas on the NESIS scale?


Here's a list of NESIS rankings for various storms (I've just added this to the blog post]:

NESIS rankings (Wikipedia)

Looks like Nemo is one of more than a dozen storms since 1950 ranked as Category 3.
Thanks Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson!
No, its not the 4th Strongest.
NESIS takes into account strength and population effected.
So for Example the Jan. 2015 Blizzard that just missed NYC might have been stronger but because adjusted for population only the 11 million in Eastern New England (say New London to Augusta) were heavily effected as opposed to the more populous DC-NY corridor, the NESIS scale rates the 2016 storm stronger.
Sort of like if Hurricane Ike has a population multiplier so was considered stronger than Katrina because Greater Houston has 7,000,000 people as opposed to New Orleans metro that only has 1,300,000
Steve Gregory's post "Blizzard Overview" link isn't working on my computer.
Quoting 4. BobHenson:



Here's a list of NESIS rankings for various storms (I've just added this to the blog post]:

NESIS rankings (Wikipedia)

Looks like Nemo is one of more than a dozen storms since 1950 ranked as Category 3.



thanks
Thanks for the update gentlemen.
Quoting 7. Sfloridacat5:

Steve Gregory's post "Blizzard Overview" link isn't working on my computer.


Whoops! Link is now fixed. Thanks for the catch.

Blizzard Overview and Why NYC Got Much More Snow Than Forecast
Thanks, the link is now working.
Quoting 6. Methurricanes:

No, its not the 4th Strongest.
NESIS takes into account strength and population effected.
So for Example the Jan. 2015 Blizzard that just missed NYC might have been stronger but because adjusted for population only the 11 million in Eastern New England (say New London to Augusta) were heavily effected as opposed to the more populous DC-NY corridor, the NESIS scale rates the 2016 storm stronger.
Sort of like if Hurricane Ike has a population multiplier so was considered stronger than Katrina because Greater Houston has 7,000,000 people as opposed to New Orleans metro that only has 1,300,000


Should be 4th most impactful storm.

Strength would me more of lowest pressure thing.
From past blog:

Quoting 166. Sfloridacat5:
12.98" for Fort Myers for January. I thought we'd break 13" but didn't quite make it.


That is really remarkable, especially for South Florida. While south Florida is typically wetter than Central Florida in terms of yearly precip, it's due to the rainy season usually being longer and wetter. But typically the dry season is notably more dry. South Florida's rainfall averages, records, and severe weather amounts historically are notably less than Central and North Florida.

Given that, the amount of rain and severe weather down there has been just crazy. Also, to get that much in January is just amazing. North of the deep tropics, historically, available atmospheric moisture and instability reaches it's absolute minimum in January, including Florida. So to see that amount of rain is truly remarkable. This January had a lot more heavy rain and severe weather in Florida than January 1998.

Available moisture, instability, as well as as frontal system strength typically increases a lot into February and March as the tropics begin to heat and the sun angle increases, yet the north is still cold, placing strong temperature gradients across the subtropics. Florida and the northern gulf coast naturally becomes the "battle ground" between winter and spring on average even without El Nino.

Since El Nino is a climate cycle not a synoptic scale weather pattern, there is no guarantee this February and March will be really crazy in Florida in terms of severe weather and heavy rain, but given what I mentioned above, the chances are pretty good that it will.

Quoting 13. Jedkins01:

From past blog:



That is really remarkable, especially for South Florida. While south Florida is typically wetter than Central Florida in terms of yearly precip, it's due to the rainy season usually being longer and wetter. But typically the dry season is notably more dry. South Florida's rainfall averages, records, and severe weather amounts historically are notably less than Central and North Florida.

Given that, the amount of rain and severe weather down there has been just crazy. Also, to get that much in January is just amazing. North of the deep tropics, historically, available atmospheric moisture and instability reaches it's absolute minimum in January, including Florida. So to see that amount of rain is truly remarkable. This January had a lot more heavy rain and severe weather in Florida than January 1998.

Available moisture, instability, as well as as frontal system strength typically increases a lot into February and March as the tropics begin to heat and the sun angle increases, yet the north is still cold, placing strong temperature gradients across the subtropics. Florida and the northern gulf coast naturally becomes the "battle ground" between winter and spring on average even without El Nino.

Since El Nino is a climate cycle not a synoptic scale weather pattern, there is no guarantee this February and March will be really crazy in Florida in terms of severe weather and heavy rain, but given what I mentioned above, the chances are pretty good that it will.




Yeah, normal January precipitation is 1.92" for Fort Myers. I've lived here 20 years or so and I don't remember it ever raining that much during a "dry season" month.
The UK is currently experiencing its own 'nor'easters', although we just call them gales or storms. Gertrude hit today, with winds exceeding 100 mph in gusts in the far north. Lots of tiles off roofs littering the pavements as I walked to work this morning, but didn't see any downed trees. Next up may be Henry on Monday, but I can't find much information on how bad it's going to be. Any elucidation on that would be appreciated.
I thought there was a blizzard from 2010 that was ranked a category 4.It happened a week after snoverkill and effected New England.
Thanks for the new entry!

Here the latest about our current North European storm
Storm Gertrude: Gales cause chaos across parts of UK
BBC, 1 hour ago
Storm Gertrude is sweeping across parts of the UK with winds of more than 100mph causing damage to buildings, travel disruption and power cuts.
In Edinburgh, a man was hospitalised after being struck by flying debris, and a rare Met Office "danger to life" wind warning is in place for Shetland.
At least 4,000 homes are without power in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Trains, flights and ferries have been cancelled and roads and bridges shut.
There are flood warnings across the UK. ...
More details see link above.


I was glued to the screen today, displaying the amazing cliff cam (now dark) of Shetland Isles where the storm hit most. Amazing to witness live in HD and full screen the power of the exceptional high waves and the relentlessly blowing hurricane force winds battering the coast. Guess now I have to wash my hair to get rid of all the salt the spindrift has left in there, lol.

For those who couldn't watch, here some screenshots:








Top gales so far today in Europe (km/h).




"Gertrude": Deep and vigorous low NE of Shetland and associated cloud. Source.

Norway braces for wrath of mighty storm Tor
The Local (Norway) Published: 29 Jan 2016 09:21 GMT 01:00

Norwegian "Tor" = British "Gertrude" = German "Marita" :-) More of the naming confusion.
Thanks for the updates Gentlemen....
Quoting 15. yonzabam:

The UK is currently experiencing its own 'nor'easters', although we just call them gales or storms. Gertrude hit today, with winds exceeding 100 mph in gusts in the far north. Lots of tiles off roofs littering the pavements as I walked to work this morning, but didn't see any downed trees. Next up may be Henry on Monday, but I can't find much information on how bad it's going to be. Any elucidation on that would be appreciated.

You sure getting pummeled and drenched this year!


Latest GFS: Rest of today's Gertrude.


Next storm on Monday. Looks like the center could hit a bit more south, umm.


For a change: this is the French weather model Arpege with forecast of max surface gusts on Monday 7 pm. Source.
nice update thanks
Quoting 15. yonzabam:

The UK is currently experiencing its own 'nor'easters', although we just call them gales or storms. Gertrude hit today, with winds exceeding 100 mph in gusts in the far north. Lots of tiles off roofs littering the pavements as I walked to work this morning, but didn't see any downed trees. Next up may be Henry on Monday, but I can't find much information on how bad it's going to be. Any elucidation on that would be appreciated.
looks to be a stormy period for the next 10 days

Thanks for this short and at the same time comprehensive post. Impressive numbers : 4th strongest storm according to the data, 2 billions or more in monetary damage equivalent, 60 fatalities...
- Decennial climate motto : "May/could/will/should/has-occur(ed)-faster/sooner /more intense-than-models/scientists/experts-predicted/e xpected."
___
"Stan", South Indian Ocean, RGB:

Australian BOM's forecast, a cat. 3 equivalent landfall within the next 24 hours.

Warning Zone : Gales within 24 hours
"Heavy rainfall associated with the system is occurring in parts of the Pilbara and far western Kimberley and will extend further inland as the system continues to track southwards on Saturday. See www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/ for more details."
Really nice atmospheric river aimed at NorCal right now, should be gradually dipping south over the next 2 days.

Potentially fun times ahead in February.

Quoting 23. TimSoCal:

Really nice atmospheric river aimed at NorCal right now, should be gradually dipping south over the next 2 days.




The NOAA El Niño Rapid Response Field Campaign website has a few links to Atmospheric River Products (towards bottom of page).
Storms sweep across Australia, with WA on alert for Cyclone Stan
The Guardian/Australian Associated Press, Friday 29 January 2016 08.50 GMT (with pics and timelapse of the latest storm in Sydney)

Little respite seen from hot, dry South African summer - weather service
Source: Reuters - Fri, 29 Jan 2016 14:32 GMT

After unusual weather, Cuba struggles to save prized tobacco crop
Source: Reuters - Thu, 28 Jan 2016 18:01 GMT
SAN JUAN Y MARTINEZ, Cuba, Jan 28 (Reuters) - Highly unusual weather has damaged Cuba's tobacco crop, raising concerns among farmers and cigar-lovers that the island's supply of its famous cigars might suffer at a time of increased demand resulting from detente with the United States.
The weather phenomena El Niño led to Cuba's worst drought in a century in 2015, followed by heavy rain during the northern winter, which is normally a dry period in Cuba.
While all Cuban crops have suffered, delicate tobacco plants are especially vulnerable. Rains have wiped out production at some plantations and severely damaged others. In response, tobacco farmers are replanting now, out of season, in hopes of salvaging the 2015-2016 harvest. ...


Zimbabwe: Typhoid hits Harare, as water crisis fuels fears of new epidemics
Source: Thomson Reuters Foundation - Fri, 29 Jan 2016 11:57 GMT

With those mixed weather news, I'm out. Have a good evening together, folks!
Quoting 24. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Potentially fun times ahead in February.


Hey 13..Thats not good..and will cause problems if it pans out that way....I believe it will...Happening as we type...
Quoting 24. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Potentially fun times ahead in February.




Very nice PV split. Towards mid February looks like it will be undoubtedly below average as far as temperatures are concerned. With the teleconnections trending more favorably, that should allow the baroclinic zone to shift from the Plains back to the eastern seaboard.
CWG has 18.8" for the season all thanks to snowzilla.That would make it the 3rd biggest in D.C's history.Wonder if we will add to that.
This blog is a wreck today! Good grief WU fix your damm site! Too many damm ads running is running this site into the dirt.
Australia. issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1938 UTC 29/01/2016.Remarks : Tropical Cyclone Stan is a category 2 system moving towards the Pilbara coast.
- Dvorak analysis yields DT of 3.5 based mainly PAT adjusted MET. ADT and CIMMS AMSU [old] are in agreement. System intensity is set to 50 knots. 40 knot 10 minute mean winds are being observed at Rowley Shoals which is about 75nm northeast of the system.
- Deep convection persists although is slightly offset from the low level circulation as some shear is affecting the system, this is highlighted in microwave imagery. CIMSS shear at 15Z showed easterly shear about 20 to 30 knots although the actual shear the system is experiencing appears lower.
- Model guidance is very consistent with continued SSE motion. Latest 12Z runs are a little slower and a little further east than previous. Slower means more time over water and thus aiding further development.
- With conditions remaining unchanged or improving until landfall, Stan should intensify to CATEGORY 3 [SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE] prior to crossing the coast. In Dvorak terms, this means going from a FT of 3.5 to 4.5 in about 18 hours [crossing time based on the most likely track], which is not unreasonable.
- Even after the system weakens over land, there is the potential for damaging winds [gusts to 120 km/hr] on the eastern side of the track well into the interior of WA.

The next bulletin for this system will be issued 30/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.
Quoting 30. StormTrackerScott:

This blog is a wreck today! Good grief WU fix your damm site! Too many damm ads running is running this site into the dirt.


I don't have a single issue with any websites on my PC except for this one. Is there anybody doing any maintenance on this site? This is getting embarrassing.
Quoting 30. StormTrackerScott:

This blog is a wreck today! Good grief WU fix your damm site! Too many damm ads running is running this site into the dirt.


I'm using many different computers (Chrome is the browser I'm using) and everything's been fine. Maybe you're not using Chrome 48.0.2564.97 ?
Quoting 25. nrtiwlnvragn:



The NOAA El Niño Rapid Response Field Campaign website has a few links to Atmospheric River Products (towards bottom of page).

Baffling ground truth: surprisingly paltry amounts of rainfall from this "river" thus far in most of Northern California. I would have expected far more. It looks like the precipitation is narrowly focussed right now along the California-Oregon border. Hopefully that band drops southward before the "river" runs dry.
Quoting 35. BayFog:


Baffling ground truth: surprisingly paltry amounts of rainfall from this "river" thus far in most of Northern California. I would have expected far more. It looks like the precipitation is narrowly focussed right now along the California-Oregon border. Hopefully that band drops southward before the "river" runs dry.


Yup totally agree - the PSU loops keeps bringing up high pressure off the coast of CA. Not great news for trying to bust the drought

IVW, MSLP, Wind Loop

EDIT: Maybe having the atmos river pointed more towards the northernmost part of the state isn't "that bad" of a thing - I'd rather have reservoirs filling up than to change public perceptions of busting the drought with high rain totals where the water doesn't get collected that "efficiently" - hopefully that makes sense.
Quoting 32. tampabaymatt:



I don't have a single issue with any websites on my PC except for this one. Is there anybody doing any maintenance on this site? This is getting embarrassing.
I use to have plenty of problems with this site until I started using a ad blocker.I know the ads help pay for the site but it started to become a real problem.My computer(s) thought a virus was attacking every time I got on here or my computer would freeze.Every since I got the ad blocker though I haven' t had any of those things happen here on WU besides the usual blog hole.
Quoting 30. StormTrackerScott:

This blog is a wreck today! Good grief WU fix your damm site! Too many damm ads running is running this site into the dirt.

If you talked to me like that, I would turn my back and walk away.....Now what do you really want to say.....
I'm guessing the clear circles on the map are the <2" readings. Probably should have made the legend background different or the marker. I like how it represents where the banding was concentrated versus the areas where drier air got entrenched from Delmarva to Jersey, but they had severe coastal flooding so just as damaging.
Quoting 24. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Potentially fun times ahead in February.




For who? Us down in the Caribbean lol?
Decipher this mathematical poem:

Quoting 40. CaribBoy:

For who? Us down in the Caribbean lol?
Your turn for fun will come in September ;)
I was in DC for the 93 storm. In a hotel with no power for 3 days. Couldn't get much food. Car was buried.
Wettest storm since the first week of 2016 inbound for SoCal.

The middle two weeks of Feb are gonna kick.
12z GEFS 500mb height anomalies days 9-13. Negative EPO/Postive PNA. Debatable NAO, and negative AO. I would look to this period and beyond for the possibility of a significant snowstorm.

And if I had info on an upcoming severe weather threat for Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, and Kentucky, then I'd certainly want to share it...but since I can't do that publicly (as it is a pay-for site) - - well...

I guess there's always wu-mail.
A dozen, a gross - -
did I SCORE?
Quoting 45. aquak9:

The middle two weeks of Feb are gonna kick.
kick scream and bawl
Quoting 41. BaltimoreBrian:

Decipher this mathematical poem:




No
Certainly by next Friday, a lot of these blues and purples will disappear on this map.
Quoting 41. BaltimoreBrian:

Decipher this mathematical poem:




Your answer is 69
Quoting 46. Drakoen:

12z GEFS 500mb height anomalies days 9-13. Negative EPO/Postive PNA. Debatable NAO, and negative AO. I would look to this period and beyond for the possibility of a significant snowstorm.


Something big always seems to occur around Valentines Day or President's Day.
Quoting 56. Bucsboltsfan:



Your answer is 69


My answer is 81 FWIW (25 years removed from this stuff)
Quoting 32. tampabaymatt:



I don't have a single issue with any websites on my PC except for this one. Is there anybody doing any maintenance on this site? This is getting embarrassing.


I always get script errors on this site, here and only here if I run the page with frequent refreshes.
81 is the answer. Now on to more important things.

The 0Z GFS last eve showed a winter storm down the to the N Cent GOM around the 9th. The 06Z run took it away and now the 12Z run brings it back. Fantasy land but I'll be watching!
60. PensacolaDoug
81 is the answer.


Which equals nine squared, and not a bit more. (sorry, my dad was an accountant at NASJAX)

And Doug! that storm is not FantasyLand! it will be a messy February.
81=81 so the answer is yes or correct
Tuesday continues to have the makings of a significant severe weather and tornado outbreak across the Mid-South. The SPC and various WFOs have already mentioned the possibility for one or two strong tornadoes. I expect this wording will be amped up as we approach the event. If model guidance is correct, we will probably see multiple strong tornadoes and the possibility for at least one violent tornado.

Rule of thumb for me is if I don't see snow or ice by Valentine's Day here in central SC we will be waiting until the following year to see it again. However the one-month window between Jan 15 and Feb 14 is our sweet spot for winter storms. After our warm up here in the next 7 days, it will be interesting to see if Mother Nature throws us a memorable parting shot. Would not surprise me. The yo-yo winter continues...

If not for the dry slot in Jonas my location northward into Raleigh would have experienced a harsh ice storm. At one point it was pouring down and then the spigot just shut off. Good luck for us.

Quoting 57. Climate175:

Something big always seems to occur around Valentines Day or President's Day.
Quoting 58. StAugustineFL:



My answer is 81 FWIW (25 years removed from this stuff)


It's a limerick, aquak9 knows
Quoting 44. TimSoCal:

Wettest storm since the first week of 2016 inbound for SoCal.




Let's hope it's not the last.


A cold Pacific low pressure system will move slowly southward along the West coast through Saturday night, moving inland through Southern California Sunday through Monday morning. Southwest winds will increase Saturday night ahead of the main system, shifting to the northwest and becoming very strong Sunday evening through Monday morning, following the cold front. Gale force winds are expected over the coastal waters during that time as well. Rainfall amounts will be between one-half of an inch near the coast, up to around 2 inches in the mountains. Snow levels will remain above 6000 feet for most of the event, dropping to around 3500 feet by early Monday morning. Significant snowfall is expected above 6000 feet, with a few inches above 4000 feet as well. Precipitation will decrease Monday morning, with winds dropping off through the day Monday.
I was just going to Post that, Good thing I did a refresh first..... around an inch here
Winter Storm Watch
Statement as of 1:51 PM PST on January 29, 2016

... Winter Storm Watch in effect from Saturday afternoon through
Monday morning...

The National Weather Service in San Diego has issued a Winter
Storm Watch... which is in effect from Saturday afternoon through
Monday morning.

* Snow levels... 8000 ft Saturday evening... lowering to 7000 ft
Sunday morning then 6000 ft Sunday afternoon and crashing to
3500 ft Sunday night.

* Wind timing... gusty Saturday afternoon through Sunday
morning... then strengthening Sunday afternoon through Monday
morning.

* Precipitation timing... light precipitation developing in the
mountains late Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning... then
widespread and moderate to heavy precipitation Sunday afternoon
through early Sunday night.

* Snow accumulations... trace to 1 inch 3500 to 4000 ft... 2 to 5
inches 4000 to 5000 ft... 3 to 10 inches 5000 to 6000 ft... 8 to
16 inches 6000 to 7000 ft... 10 to 20 inches above 7000 ft.

* Winds... west 30 to 45 mph... with gusts to 75 mph.
Link /Out of control ship presently 150 nautical miles off La Rochelle, France, drifting to the east (The Maritime Executive, By MarEx 2016-01-29 16:48:02.)
"The Express issued a distress signal when she was 130 nm off Cape Ortegal, Galicia, in the British zone of SAR responsibility for the Bay of Biscay. Spanish Coast Guard assets rescued the 22-member crew of the listing ro/ro on Tuesday evening and brought them safely ashore.
- The Panama-flagged, 10,000 dwt Modern Express was under way from Gabon to Le Havre with cargo of "3,600 tons of wood in bundles and a dozen pieces of heavy machinery" at the time that she began to list, French authorities said.
- With nightfall approaching, at 1600 hours the team stopped work on the salvage and were taken from the ship by helicopter. Response assets on scene include the response tug Abeille Bourbon, the frigate Primauguet, the pollution control vessel Arogonaute, and two tugs contracted by SMIT.
- The salvage team contracted for the recovery of the stricken ro/ro Modern Express has been temporarily removed from the vessel as heavy swells complicated their efforts Friday to establish a tow line. Swells of 12 to 15 feet meant that the two vessels were moving significantly relative to each other, and the motion parted the line."
--- Update from TC Stan: sat. image at dawn (high tower of clouds is beautiful; no eye yet) :

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
235 PM PST FRI JAN 29 2016

CAZ072-NVZ002-301200-
/O.NEW.KREV.WS.A.0004.160131T1400Z-160201T1200Z/
/O.CON.KREV.WS.W.0002.160130T0000Z-160130T1800Z/
GREATER LAKE TAHOE AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTH LAKE TAHOE...TRUCKEE...
INCLINE VILLAGE
235 PM PST FRI JAN 29 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST
SATURDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RENO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

* TIMING: STRONG WINDS...RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

* SNOW LEVELS: 8000 TO 8500 FEET THIS EVENING...THEN LOWERING TO
5000 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY: 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE 8000
FEET...INCLUDING CARSON PASS AND THE MOUNT ROSE HIGHWAY SUMMIT.
6 TO 12 INCHES BETWEEN 7000 AND 8000 FEET...INCLUDING DONNER
PASS AND ECHO SUMMIT. 3 TO 6 INCHES BELOW 7000 FEET.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: 4 TO 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALLY UP TO 1 FOOT.

* WINDS: SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH SIERRA RIDGE GUSTS UP TO 130 MPH.

* IMPACTS: DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR RECREATIONAL ACTIVITIES AND
TRAVEL OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES. STRONG WINDS MAY DAMAGE DROUGHT
STRESSED TREES WITH POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE.
Quoting 41. BaltimoreBrian:

Decipher this mathematical poem:




Two steps.

The RHS is 9**2 or 81. The = sign says the LHS is the same so.. done.


To verify correctness we of course have to do all that LHS arithmetic. Or trust you. Laziness wins :-)

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
74. vis0
ate 1 and am full


The clouds are being blown out of the southwest. In this photo to the east, taken around 5pm, you can see the beginnings being shoved up against the Stillwater range. Looks like the rain comes right out there, washing down the snow that's been there since the last few storms.

Highs today in the mid-60's, at 7:30pm we still have the windows open. Lows predicted into the mid-low 40's, and the high tomorrow's not going to be much above that. Cold front coming behind is forecasting lows in the teens a couple nights from now.