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Winter rains ease Southeast U.S. drought; Brazilian storm could go subtropical

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:59 PM GMT on February 29, 2008

The winter of 2007-2008 is in the books, as today marks the last day of meteorological winter (December, January, and February). Winter rains have eased the drought gripping the Southeast U.S., where the area covered by extreme to exceptional drought has shrunk by about 50% since the beginning of the year (Figure 1). Some regions of southern Georgia and southern Alabama, where winter rains have been more than six inches above average (Figure 2), are no longer suffering drought conditions at all.


Figure 1. Drought categories for the Southeast U.S. from December 25, 2007, and February 28, 2007. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

However, A large swath of the Southeast U.S., including Atlanta, Charlotte, and Huntsville, have received 1-4 inches of precipitation below usual for this time of year. The shortfall is particularly acute in northern Alabama, where Huntsville has received only 6.77" this year, compared to the normal 10.47". The below average rains during this winter rainy season bode ill for the summer, when drought conditions could easily return to last year's extreme levels. The Southeast badly needs one or two landfalling tropical storms or hurricanes in 2008 to help break the drought.

Central Florida surrounding Lake Okeechobee is also suffering from below average rains this winter. The lake, which reached its all-time low water mark of 8.82 feet on July 2, 2007, has risen to 10.02 feet, but this is still a record low for this time of year. The surface area of the lake has shrunk to about 2/3 of normal, and the water level is more than four feet below normal. Part of the reason for the record low lake levels is the fact that the lake was deliberately drawn down before the 2006 hurricane season, in anticipation of another very active hurricane season.


Figure 2. Departure of precipitation from average for January and February 2008. Image credit: NOAA Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.

The forecast
The short-range rainfall forecast is good for the Southeast, with significant rainstorms possible both Tuesday and Thursday. The longer range three-month forecast calls for a continuation of below average precipitation for the spring season, thanks to the continued presence of a strong La Niña event in the Equatorial East Pacific. La Niña events usually deflect the jet stream into a pattern that takes the Southeast U.S. out of the the usual storm track needed to bring typical spring rains. However, for the summer months of June, July, and August, NOAA's CFS Climate Forecast System Model is predicting a return to normal levels of rainfall over the Southeast U.S.

Severe weather outbreak coming on Monday
A strong low pressure system is forecast to develop over Texas on Sunday, bringing a slight chance of severe weather to eastern Texas Sunday afternoon. By Monday afternoon, the storm is expected to track northeastwards over the Ohio Valley, dragging a strong cold front across the south. A significant severe weather outbreak is possible Monday afternoon in advance of this cold front.

Interesting South Atlantic storm could become subtropical
An extratropical storm centered near 31S 30W, a few hundred miles east of the Brazil-Uruguay border, has begun to acquire subtropical characteristics and could become a subtropical storm this weekend. The storm is not expected to hit land. NASA/MSFC has a clickable satellite image of Southern Hemisphere one can use to zoom in on the storm. An ASCAT pass at 5:29am EST this morning showed winds of 50 mph near the center of the storm. Water temperatures are about 26°C, which is right at the boundary where tropical storm formation can occur. Subtropical and tropical storms are quite rare in the South Atlantic. I'll update this section of the blog through the weekend if the storm develops. There is no naming system in place to name any tropical or subtropical storm that may form in the South Atlantic. It would be up to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to institute such a scheme. The last time I checked into this, they had no plans to consider a naming system. Here's nice MODIS image of the storm from 15:30 GMT today.



Figure 3. Visible satellite image of extratropical low off the coast of Brazil that is beginning to acquire some subtropical characteristics. Image credit: NASA/MSFC.

Jeff Masters

Drought

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

"Central Florida surrounding Lake Okeechobee is also suffering from below average rains this winter. The lake, which reached its all-time low water mark of 8.82 feet on July 2, 2007"

Actually it was the hysterical prediction of more and stronger hurricanes
that caused them to drastically lower the level of the lake
in anticipation of the more and stronger hurricanes
That got them into this mess.
That was an outstanding update Dr. Masters! I will watch that extratropical low myself now. I never even noticed it. At least the drought has been eased in the Southeast. Keep up the great updates Dr. Masters.

Just a question. If the extratropical low were to develop into a subtropical storm, would it gain a name and what would the name be? Thanks.
Thanks Dr Masters.

I personally do not relish being a number, unlike some of you.
1. latitude25 1:12 PM EST on February 29, 2008
"Central Florida surrounding Lake Okeechobee is also suffering from below average rains this winter. The lake, which reached its all-time low water mark of 8.82 feet on July 2, 2007"

Actually it was the hysterical prediction of more and stronger hurricanes
that caused them to drastically lower the level of the lake
in anticipation of the more and stronger hurricanes
That got them into this mess.


Very good point. Many people do not realize this occured just because someone took the hurricane season predictions too seriously and ordered the lake level to be lowered. I could not stop laughing that the SFWMD made a huge decision that will affect the entire region just because of some PREDICTIONS!!! Just goes to show how gullible people can be.
Temperatures across northern Maine dropped to -38°F this morning!

That's about as cold as it gets up there in a typical winter.
latitude25 and cchsweatherman,although you are correct that the draining of the lake did contribute somewhat,the main cause has been the drought.Precipitation has been much below normal here since Wilma,particuarly due to the lack of hurricanes.As Dr. Masters said in his blog,if we do not get one this year,we will be in serious trouble next winter.
Well CCH, that prediction almost came true. Had Ernesto not hung out over Cuba for as long as it did and turned out to be the CAT3 that was thought, it would have been devastating to the Lake O area. Hind site is always 20/20 and the fact that Ernesto crossed directly over Lake O makes the call by the SFWMD a pretty good one. Intensity forecasts leave little to be desired, it was there just not as strong as anticipated.
Well,all I know is that it's no coincidence that the drought started as soon as we stopped getting strong tropical storms and hurricanes.And that goes for ALL of the southeast,not just Florida.
There is no naming system in place to name any tropical or subtropical storm that may form in the South Atlantic. I've told one of the senior forecasters at NHC they should put a naming system in place, but he said it was up to the WMO, any they were very unlikely to do such a thing. Here's nice MODIS image of the storm from 15:30 GMT today.

It is true that Lake Okeechobee was deliberately drawn down quite a bit prior to the 2006 hurricane season. I can't say I blame them, after what happened in 2005. The dikes on Lake Okeechobee would have been vulnerable to overtopping or failure, if a storm like the 1928 hurricane had hit in 2006. If such a storm were to hit in 2008, the chances of such a failure are much lower, thanks to the low lake levels.

Jeff
Thanks for the info Dr. Masters.
Excellent update & thanks for following the South Atlantic storm.

Interesting article being put out about a paper being published in "Science" today. About how the majority of rain's nuculi is one type of bacteria that multiplies on plants, then is swept up by wind into the atmosphere where ice forms around it to cause precipitation. Then only a single bacteria needs to be dropped on a plant to multiply & be swept up again.
I agree Kris. The southeast is very dependent on tropical moisture. Take those away and you get what we're experiencing right now.
dr m what about Catarina that was a South Atlantic Hurricane and they name it too so why would they not name this one? like they did with the South Atlantic Hurricane??? would we see 90L?
15. Tazmanian 2:18 PM EST on February 29, 2008
dr m what about Catarina that was a South Atlantic Hurricane and they name it too so why would they not name this one? like they did with the South Atlantic Hurricane??? would we see 90L?


They did not name the storm. Catarina is the name of the island the storm hit in Brazil, not the storm name. I'm not sure if they would label an invest on this, but, it could be possible.
Llyods did an assesment of risk on the lake O dike in 2006. The Dike is in bad shape. It is being used as it wasn't intended when built, as a dam to form a water resovior. The fill capasity was even increased above design causing farther proplems. Lake levels play a large role in the amount of ongoing erosion & increased chance of failer. There is mention of several unspecified times recently where failure due to internal erosion or tunnelling nearly occured & was stopped by the Army Corp. The panel's results were that there was grave & immenent danger it would fail & the whole region would be lost if something wasn't done. The work has begone because of Katrina & the dike's history. It's also far from completed. Until it's done, (enviromental phosphate cleaning is on going too) it's probibly in the overall best intrest of especially the 40,000 residents that are very close to the dike & the 5 million + residents that are protected by the dike, to keep it low.
Thanks Dr. M.......We'll need to keep our eyes on the Southern Gulf region this coming Monday for sure...........
South Atlantic tropical cyclones seem to be unofficially named a lot like earthquakes; in the case of the latter, the name of the nearest major geographic feature to the epicenter, or of the area hardest hit is applied. I suppose that WMO feels that South Atlantic tropical cyclones happen so rarely that there is very little chance of getting them mixed up over the years. In a way, let's hope that it stays that way.
"I could not stop laughing that the SFWMD made a huge decision that will affect the entire region just because of some PREDICTIONS!!!"

It was the Army Corp that made the decision, not really the South Florida Water Mang District. Dropping the level 10ft.

Not only based on the climate models predictions of hurricanes,
but also on the predictions of a strong El Nino.

Which was also wrong, and turned into the opposite
a La Nina.
21. V26R
Interesting article on what I think was the last Tropical System in the South Atlantic

Link
Once again latitude,you show you don't know what you're talking about.When they dumped the water(after hurricane Wilma),it was forecasted that La Nina conditions would be prevelant,NOT El Nino.No one was forecasting an El Nino.
And as TCW said,hindsight is 20/20.If a hurricane had hit that year.the dike had broken open and thousands had died,those people in charge would have been fried.Their careers would be over.They did the right,safe thing.
You are jumping the gun.
It's one thing to lower the level
It's another thing to maintain that low level because of a prediction.
The low level was maintained because of a prediction.

NOAA ISSUES UNSCHEDULED EL NIÑO ADVISORY Sept. 13, 2006

Link
Minor correction about SFWMD and lake levels. The Army Corps dropped the lake level after Wilma, but it was the SFWMD that drained the entire canal system that L.O. feeds days before the predicted landfall of T.S. Ernesto unnecessarily. That dropped the lake level another foot or more. That action was too early and too extreme. Despite what most folks hear, the canal system could be used to backfeed L.O if it was truly necessary.
US Army Corp of Engineers
Frequently Asked Questions


Is it true that Lake Okeechobee levels must be kept low to avoid
overtopping of the Herbert Hoover Dike during hurricanes?

No. The danger of Lake Okeechobee overtopping the Herbert Hoover Dike
(HHD) is extremely remote. In fact, if the HHD did not exist today, water would
flow into the lake because the lake’s elevation is below that of the surrounding
land. Even if the lake were to fill up and reach a level of higher than 17.25 feet,
the potential for flooding danger would not be from overtopping but from seepage
and piping, or internal erosion.

Link
Your point?The lake was at least 17 feet,and may have been 19 feet,if I remember correctly.Besides,that FAQ is out of date,new info had come out questioning the validity of previous confidence about the dike.
Interesting article on what I think was the last Tropical System in the South Atlantic

According to this, 2006 had a 60 mph tropical storm in February (Dr. Masters also mentioned it):

In late February what appeared to be a small tropical storm developed
of the coast of southeastern Brazil, but unlike the devastating Catarina
of March, 2004, moved away from the coastline with no effects on land.
According to Toni Cristaldi of the Melbourne, FL, NWS Forecast Office,
in its formative stages on 20 February the system for a brief period of
time drifted erratically south-southwestward, parallel to the Brazilian
coastline. On the 21st it began a general eastward motion which would
continue throughout its short lifetime.

Based on an analysis of available satellite imagery by Dr. Karl Hoarau
of Cergy-Pontoise University near Paris, the system intensified quickly
on the 22nd and reached a peak intensity of 55 kts around 23/0000 UTC at
a point approximately 225 nm due east of Porto Alegre, Brazil. Following
this, the system encountered strong westerly and southwesterly shear and
weakened quickly. Following is a track and intensity history recently
compiled by Karl. (A special thanks to Karl for taking the time to
prepare the track.)


Storm Name: None Cyclone Number: None Basin: SAT

Date Time Lat Lon Cent MSW MSW Remarks
(GMT) Press 1-min 10-min
(mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
06 FEB 21 1200 30.8 S 49.7 W 20
06 FEB 21 1800 31.1 S 49.3 W 25
06 FEB 22 0000 31.3 S 49.0 W 25
06 FEB 22 0600 31.4 S 48.6 W 25
06 FEB 22 1200 31.1 S 48.2 W 30
06 FEB 22 1800 30.7 S 47.8 W 35
06 FEB 22 2100 30.3 S 47.4 W 45
06 FEB 23 0000 30.0 S 46.9 W 55
06 FEB 23 0600 29.4 S 45.6 W 50
06 FEB 23 1200 29.2 S 44.3 W 45
06 FEB 23 1800 29.1 S 42.6 W 40
06 FEB 23 2100 29.1 S 41.6 W 30
latitude..they drained it once!They did not purposely keep draining it,I don't know were you're getting that information from.They drained it after Wilma and before Ernesto(as is common protocol,they always drain when there is an immediate hurricane threat).
kris

deep breaths

you're going to have a stroke
LOL.Look,my point is...no need to beat up the SFWMD.They did the right thing,and it would have made little difference at ths point.
Either way (SFWMD) it is a huge effort to try and manage the limited "fresh" water resources available to South Florida (there is plenty of salt water intrusion to worry them as well)and as Dr. M. mentioned in his blog today, they will need some storms/hurricane to replenish the area before the Summer is over....If you ask me, based on what I have read below and what the future might bring, it would probably be a good investment (if they can afford it) over the long term to rebuid/reenforce the barriers around the lake, and, to keep the water levels as high as possible...But, this also brings problems ecologically as extremely high water levels in the Lake start to affect the ecosystem balance and wildlife.....Quite a daunting tasks (with water managers concerned about the human population and scientists-ecologists worried about the natural ecosystem) to keep both sides happy and safe.........
According to this, La Nina set a record last month (it may have also set a February record for the Nino 3.4 index - the link mentions that the March record could be broken as well):

Also... the SOI value of 20.99 for Feb is the highest for Feb on record. The top 10 highest for Feb are:

1928 18
1950 17
1918 16.5
1904 16
1974 16
1971 15.5
1910 15
1955 14.6
1879 14.1


Interesting to see how February ranks globally for temperatures...
US Army Corp of Engineers
Frequently Asked Questions


What will be the condition of the lake when it returns to normal levels?

Numerous variables must be considered. Water levels that increase gradually
over the course of months will result in fewer negative impacts than if a tropical
system or other rain-producing weather event dumps great amounts of water
on
the lake over a short time span, causing the lake level to rise rapidly.

damned if you do
damned if you don't
The adverse effects of L.O on wildlife(the Evergaldes etc.) are caused strictly by agricultural runoff(fertlilzers causing algae blooms, pesticides...) Those same folks using those chemicals have quite a bit of lobbying power with the State Gov. They also want the lake water for irrigation. That is the real reason we are under such heavy water restrictions, while coastal rainfall can't be used to replenish the lake w/o adverse effects.
35. Ivansrvivr 3:42 PM EST on February 29, 2008
You have made some other valid points...Fact is that it is a very complex issue and you bring out something I did not want to mention earlier (even through much of my family lives down there!)......Humans shouldn't really be living on re-claimed swampland in the first place, or, in the direct shadow of the Lake, but, tell that to the politicians and property developers in Florida (or on the coast for that matter)......Don't get me started!...LOL
CCW: it is same old story of overbuilding w/o planning and infrastructure.
Afternoon, all.

Somebody mentioned the 1950 hurricane season earlier (on the previous blog). It turns out that this was an interesting season. 11 hurricanes, including 1 cat 5, were packed into the period 12th August to 21 October. There was a 37 day period when there were at least two hurricanes spinning in the basin. I'm sure it's seasons like this that help to define that double spike pattern of the "average" hurricane season. Six of the 12 named storms impacted the US directly or indirectly. Cat 5 Hurricane Dog at one point packed 185 mph winds and 100 ft seas, but fortunately did not make direct landfall, despite the 130 mph winds felt in the Northern Lesser Antilles.

This was quite an interesting season.
Is that a tropical wave moving west into Belize?
There are 2 good possibilities for rain for the lake in the next 10 days or so. That may be it until the rainy season (which may start later than usual due to La Nina).
If the La Nina stays this strong and the current storm pattern holds true the flooding is going to be serious in parts of the country,especially where there is deep snow cover.
Special Weather Statement NWS New Orleans
Statement as of 3:45 PM CST on February 29, 2008
Link
The Southeast may be getting drought relief, but it appears that it is due to a shift in weather patterns; recall how Texas was so wet last year? Well, this is from the latest Drought Monitor:

The Plains: The overall drought picture was virtually unchanged across the northern and central Plains, but deterioration occurred farther south, mainly in Texas, due to windy weather and a heat wave. In particular, coverage of moderate to extreme drought (D1 to D3) increased in parts of southern, central, and western Texas. On February 25, temperatures climbed to 100 degrees F at several places in southern Texas, including locations near Carrizo Springs and Del Rio. At the official observation site in Del Rio, the high of 99 degrees F on the 25th tied its February record, previously attained on February 21, 1996.

In Texas alone, more than a dozen wildfires were in various stages of containment as of February 27. The largest blaze, the 219,000-acre Glass fire southwest of Sterling City, was burning in parts of three counties. Other large incidents included the 29,000-acre Scurry County complex near the town of Snyder, where five homes were destroyed, and the 20,000-acre Silver fire in Coke County, where the community of Robert Lee was evacuated. Just in the last week, nearly 300,000 acres of vegetation were charred across Texas, boosting the year-to-date total to more than 480,000 acres. During all of 2007, just 121,964 acres burned in the Lone Star State. Fires were not just confined to Texas; other blazes in recent days included a 40,000-acre fire near Hobbs, New Mexico, where tower personnel at the Hobbs Airport were evacuated for 4 hours. In northwestern Oklahoma, several thousand acres burned in Woodward County.

Agricultural impacts of dryness and drought across the south-central U.S. included stress on winter wheat. As of February 24, the Texas winter wheat crop was rated 64% very poor to poor, while the state’s range and pastureland was rated 45% very poor to poor. Ironically, dry conditions also promoted early-season fieldwork in Texas; by February 24, planting advanced ahead of the 5-year average and was 1% complete for corn and 2% complete for sorghum.
One day it will dawn on the people of this nation that we are not gods and Mother (Nature) knows best. In the long run it would be cheaper to buy out all the folks who have settled in places not suited for human habitation and let Nature do the land reclamation. I do not hope to live to see that day as the only thing that would drive the point home within my lifetime is a calamity which would make Katring look like a tempest in a tea pot.
If such a storm were to hit in 2008, the chances of such a failure are much lower, thanks to the low lake levels

Dr.Masters, and to all of us here. Let us pray that this does not get tested. I dont wish for a 1928 storm to hit near were i live.
STL, I hope your'e right and were not seeing a longer term drought spreading from the southeast into Texas and surrounding areas.
Good evening all. To answer your question leftovers, that is not a tropical wave moving into Belize; rather it is strong easterlies interacting with a stationary boundary that remains from the front that passed through Florida earlier this week. Good observation though.
CC: Think either of the next 2 forecast storm systems will bring some more needed rain to the Fl Peninsula?
1928 storm is almost impossible due to all the man made changes that have occurred between the lake and the 'glades. All the canals, and swamp draining that has been done around Lake O has changed the topography completely. There are areas vulnerable to surge around Lake O, but not the same areas as '28
And yet another round.......

46. Ivansrvivr 10:42 PM GMT on February 29, 2008
STL, I hope your'e right and were not seeing a longer term drought spreading from the southeast into Texas and surrounding areas.



There are concerns that a major drought could impact most of the central-eastern U.S. next summer, although for now well above average rainfall has occurred (and snowfall; nevermind that 1993 had similar conditions in the Southeast with heavy snow and rain in the Midwest - although an El Nino instead of a La Nina):

Taylor sees conditions that point to a drought

Tuesday, February 5, 2008

By Jean Caspers-Simmet

Agri News staff writer

WATERLOO, Iowa -- Conditions point to a Corn Belt drought, Iowa State University Extension climatologist Elwynn Taylor told farmers at last week's Crop Advantage Conference at Hawkeye Community College in Waterloo.

La Nina, which is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific and increases the likelihood of a Corn Belt drought, established itself in December and is strengthening, said Taylor. The risk of the Corn Belt harvesting below-trend line crop is 70 percent.

Several other drought risk factors also exist. The last time so many risks were present was 1988, the last major Corn Belt drought, Taylor said.

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is a condition similar to La Nina that impacts the weather west of Interstate 35 through the High Plains. It has been in the higher risk negative phase for most of the past seven years, and remains a drought concern for 2008.

A 19-year drought cycle for the central and eastern United States is at the phase of greatest drought risk, about double the chance of drought compared to off-peak years. The last major Corn Belt drought was in 1988. This cycle dates back 800 years.

Sixteen of the 17 major Corn Belt droughts in the past 100 years started in the southeast and spread to the Corn Belt. Last year's drought in South Carolina is similar to those that have come just before major Corn Belt droughts.

On a positive note, subsoil moisture is good throughout much of the state, Taylor said.

Between now and spring, La Nina could weaken, but it also could grow stronger.

"Often by April 15, the late spring pattern establishes itself," Taylor said. "It will tell us what is going on through July. Some are saying La Nina will be gone by May. Others say it will end in June, and it could be around all summer."

If a strong La Nina is present in April, Taylor said farmers can protect crop yields. They can plant at the low range of recommended planting density, and do everything to conserve water in the soil.

"Every time you disturb the soil, it costs you one-half to one-quarter inch of water," Taylor said.

Farmers should do all they can to get plants off to a good start.

"Don't compact the soil," Taylor said. "Plant when conditions are right, and baby the soil so the plant gets the best root system possible."

Proper fertility, and good weed control and pest management are even more vital during times of drought stress.

Farmers also need to make sure that they have adequate crop insurance, and that they're watching for marketing opportunities.

Mark Recker, an Oelwein farmer, said he values Taylor's weather advice.

"If there's still a strong La Nina in April, I'll put plans in place for a drought," Recker said. "As farmers we can be careful in the hybrids we select, and we can also look at less tillage."



I am also surprised that Dr. Masters said nothing at all about the major drought forecast by the CFS (which he linked to under the forecast section of his entry), just the rain for the Southeast:



Also, this is what they are talking about when they talk about conditions possibly being like those in 1988:

Drought/Heat Wave Summer 1988. 1988 drought in central and eastern U.S. with very severe losses to agriculture and related industries; estimated $40.0 (61.6) billion damage/costs; estimated 5,000 to 10,000 deaths (includes heat stress-related).


There was a drought in the Southeast preceeding that, but it was a couple years earlier, not the year before (not sure if that matters).
48. Ivansrvivr 5:57 PM EST on February 29, 2008
CC: Think either of the next 2 forecast storm systems will bring some more needed rain to the Fl Peninsula?


To answer your question, I do believe that you could see some severe storms capable of producing very heavy rainfall by late Monday into Tuesday associated with the first storm. I have not done enough analysis to respond upon the second forecasted storm, although I did see the storm in the models. Seems like it develops on the backside of this first storm. Quite interesting.
I'm thinking the 2nd may be quite a bit stronger than the first.
STL, given the state of the nation, among other things, i'm leaning towards 1930's dust bowl type drought. If I remember right that one was at the end of AMO, and coincided with economic downturn. (Sound familiar?)
Rain!!! Much needed rain is falling here in north-west N.C. Very light rain and gusty winds.Starting to change to snow above 3000f.t.
1-2inches on the western slopes.Else where, less than half a inch in the mountain areas.Most of N.C wont get any measurable rain.
Info from weatherunderground.

Hopefuly next Tuesday we will get some heavy thunderstorms.
53. Ivansrvivr 6:45 PM EST on February 29, 2008
I'm thinking the 2nd may be quite a bit stronger than the first.


We will have to wait and see about that, but at this time, I do have to agree with you. The models show the second storm becoming stronger than the first.

Hey y'all

Please check out my La Nina update, on my blog, see here.
Statement as of 6:53 PM EST on February 29, 2008


... Brief snow showers to produce light accumulations in parts of
the North Carolina mountains this evening...

... Snow Advisory in effect until midnight EST tonight...

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued
a Snow Advisory... which is in effect until midnight EST tonight
from Yancey to Avery counties in the northern North Carolina mountains.

Widespread rain showers will steadily mix over to snow showers
across the advisory area this evening. Light accumulations around
one inch will develop across most of the advisory area... with up
to two inches possible at higher elevations above 3500 feet. The
snow showers will likely briefly change back to rain showers
shortly after midnight... with precipitation ending as flurries
toward daybreak.

A Snow Advisory means that periods of snow will cause primarily
travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered roads and
limited visibilities... and use caution while driving.




CC, I'm not just going by the models, but a little history. The 2nd storm has many similarities to the 93 superstorm. Only difference is el Nino influenced that one, this on is La Nina. Early March, Cold air behind 1st system, Low forming in GOM, deep tropical connection, all the ingredients are there, it's a matter of track and timing. I doubt the 2nd storm will be of '93 magnitude, but the similarities are there if it pans out.
March 12-14, 1993 NARR Superstorm animation ...
800 x 600 - 621k - gif Link

Hmm, looks like we're going to start March off with a bang. Significant severe weather.

'Course, that's my kind of weather. I prefer it to be stormy as much as possible, but if there is one thing I don't want, it is a tornado. With severe weather as bad as it has been so far in 2008, I wouldn't be surprised to see another significant tornado outbreak with the upcoming storm system.

I'll have to analyze the storm more closely in a couple hours.
I drove through the teeth of that monster. That's when I realized that wx storms can be as strong as hurricanes. The 2nd storm in the upcoming models has similarities to 93', although that one was a once in a 100+yr event, this on could be similar, but maybe a bit weaker(I hope).
179. HIEXPRESS 10:14 AM EST on January 20, 2008
On this page:
http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/2004/summ0403.htm
Scroll down & revisit the unofficially named South Atlantic tropical cyclone Catarina in 2004. Could it happen again? Sure. When?
Here's my page on the 93 superstorm see here.
Imagine if Florida's rainy season never came. Instead a powerful ridge sits directly above us.

Instead of the typical hot humid afternoon thunderstorm scenario you get triple digit heat with northerly continental winds under sunny skies. From June till early Oct.

The low humidity would would be welcomed except the wildfire threat.
My page on the 93 s.s is hardwired into my brain. I saw the snow side and the squall side. I got hail damage on my car, and have a photo at the Al Fl border w/ 2 inches of snow on the ground. that was an amazing adventure, as intense as any hurricane, and in many ways worse.
The seabreezes would trigger morning or afternoon t-storms regardless.
Those type of events are indeed rare.
CC and others, don't let your guard down toward the mon-tues storm system. It has potential to be dangerous severe wx situation too.
Don't worry Ivansrvivr, I'll be watching these two storms very closely since the model output worries me. Good night all.
CC, you know how skeptical I am about dissipating frontal systems over the Fl Peninsula, but both these upcoming storms will have have parent lows far enough south to give us some action unless the track changes drastically from the current models. JUst something to keep an eye on and hope for 3-5 inch rains widespread over the entire peninsula.
Good saturday morning to all....


....SYNOPSIS....

GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....

A frontal boundary extends from Central Texas at 31N/100W across the Southern United States to the Atlantic Corridor near 38N/80W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. Meanwhile, upper level westerly flow is advecting upper level moisture with embedded scattered showers across the Gulf north of 25N from Texas to the Southeastern United States. At the surface, a weakening high pressure system is situated in the vicinity of Northern Florida while a 1010 mb surface low is stationed over Western Mexico at 22N/102W. The pressure gradient between these two features is producing an easterly flow of 10-20 knots over the Gulf and seas of 5-6 ft...east of 90W...and 6-8 ft...west of 90W. This onshore flow is also lifting along the Sierra Madre Mountains of Mexico producing broken to overcast skies and showers from about 17N to 27N between 93W and 101W.

Multilayer cloudiness and showers is seen across the Atlantic west of 70W. This activity is associated mid-upper level moisture being advected from the Gulf across the Southeast United States/Florida and into Western Atlantic...above cold air high pressure stratocumulus clouds. Further east, a frontal boundary has stalled out between the Southeastern end of Cuba and a 1021 mb low near 34N/45W. Broken to overcast cloudiness and light to moderate showers are within 100 nm of the front* north of Tropic of Cancer.

CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

The stationary front also extends into the Caribbean from Cuba to 19N/85W. The front is embedded in a fair amount of mid-level dry air and significant convection is limited to widely scattered low clouds. Meanwhile, the surface pressure gradient has tighten across the Caribbean this morning with trades northeasterly at 10-25 knots generating swells of 6-8 ft everywhere and 11 ft swells along the Colombian Coast/SW Caribbean. As the frontal boundary weakens north of the region, a ridge will begin to build in further increasing trades and seas across most of the region east of 80W. The trades are also bringing widespread low level moisture from the Atlantic into the Caribbean in the form of patches of shallow cloudiness/showers...across the Lesser Antilles, parts of Northern South America, Jamaica and the Central American terrain.

by W456

*From ship reports.
Folks, help me out, I've looked at the NAM and the GFS, and those models don't show any storms along the Atlantic coast this weekend, is there something I don't know or see?
davidw221,

here's a GFS Model run of the storm for sat 8 mar 2008. The storm is depicted right west of New York City, NY.

Goldstein: A big blow to Al Gore
By LORRIE GOLDSTEIN -- Sun Media

Al Gore won't like this. One of the world's leading agencies monitoring climate change says there's no link between global warming and the frequency or severity of hurricanes hitting the United States over the past century.

Scientists affiliated with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released a report last week assessing 105 years of hurricane activity in the U.S., from 1900 to 2005.

They conclude "economic damages from hurricanes have increased in the U.S. over time due to greater population, infrastructure and wealth on the U.S. coastlines, and not (due) to any spike in the number or intensity of hurricanes."

"There is nothing in the U.S. hurricane damage record that indicates global warming has caused a significant increase in destruction along our coasts," said Chris Landsea, science and operations officer of the NOAA's National Hurricane Center in Miami, one of six authors of the study, published Feb. 1, in Natural Hazards Review.

Claims that damages caused by hurricanes are rising exponentially due to the influence of global warming failed to take into account rapidly increasing coastal populations, denser housing, and the huge rise in coastal land values over time, the study said.

Contrary to conventional wisdom that Hurricane Katrina, which struck New Orleans in 2005, was the most destructive ever to hit the U.S., once these factors are considered, the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926 caused almost twice as much damage as Katrina -- $157 billion compared to $81 billion.

***************

New name for the Global warming/climate change gang...

Alarmists
Funny how Dr. M can mindlessly justify destroying the Everglades with the hysterical draw down of Lake Okeechobee. South Florida continues to be the victim of the Alarmists who justify habitat destruction all so that global warming can be given more believeability.

It has been nearly a month sine the NOAA article mentioned earlier...why hasn't the good doctor had even so much as a comment.

I watched the last cold front visit us here in South Florida and I couldn't help notice that The Weather Channel and Intellicast were forcasting low temps which were, on average, 6 degrees warmer than the same predictions at WUnderground. Guess who was right on? It wasn't WUnderground.

That got me to thinking and I finally realized the root of the discrepency. WUnderground is shamelessly in the Global Warming camp and the glasses through which they see the world are shaded toward that mentality.

Alarmists and their mindset are setting the science of weather observation and predicition back at least fifty years. Time to go back to unbiased scientific observation and analysis.
lindenii
it is not going to be that easy. our school system has dropped the ball so long ago that even our phds are not nearly as well educated as they once were. how else can you explain the fact that so many phds are not sticking the the straight and narrow when it comes to the principles of 'scientific research and interpretation'? it is obvious that they simply do not know how becasue they werent taught that well.
Check out ben steins new movie EXPELLED. he explains it a lot better that little ole me.
Dr.Masters,
Thank you for the inspiring update.
Morning everybody.

Somebody please tell me why the cold fronts always go through here on the weekends . . . :o)

I'm interested in how far south this latest front will actually make it. It seems that the jet is consistently pulling the low pressure centres sharply north as the fronts cross the east coast. As a result the boundary sometimes slides off to the north instead of progressing eastward over the central and southern Bahamas.
Good morning all!

Currently, the NAM has cyclogenesis occuring over Northern Alabama and Northern Georiga. Shows quite a powerful low developing with a strong trailing front come late Monday into Tuesday sweeping through the Southeast bringing widespread heavy rains to the worst drought areas.

It seems like the GFS has become less aggressive with the impending storm for late Monday and Tuesday as the forecasted low does not bomb out like some earlier runs had indicated, although it still shows very active weather over the Southeast and especially into Florida with what appears to be a bonafide squall line. Will have to watch for consistency with the GFS model as the forecasted strength of this storm has fluctuated over the past few days.

Like Ivansrvivr noted last night, the next storm that appears on the forecast models does have some striking resemblance to the '93 Super Storm (see links provided by other bloggers above for more info on this event). From my analysis, it indicates that tropical cyclogenesis will occur in the Central GOM as a strengthening frontal system dives down into the Southeast. The front draws up the tropical low and merge creating massive instability and abundant tropical moisture. This could set off a historic severe weather outbreak. It will all deal with timing. The models showing this next storm that will follow Monday and Tuesday's storm is forecasted to move into the SE sometime next weekend into early the following week.

As I have stated several times before, I do not place total reliance on the computer models since they have been proven to change quite often, but I must take them into consideration when forecasting.

Does anyone have any analysis to offer on these two potential severe storms?
The 06z GFS has the Saturday storm developing off the coast of NC and moving northeast parallel to the US east coast, well offshore Cape Cod. On the other hand, the 00z GFS had the storm well inland and a bit stronger than what it currently predicts.

The 00z ECMWF (which I think has been more realiable in the long range so far) has the system farther inland than the GFS; with the center near Ohio or western PA at 00 UTC on March 8th.

Either way, would the cold air be in place to fuel a winter weather type event? From what ive noticed the models tend to have a bias towards colder air in the upper levels this far out in time.
Just following up with Dr. Master's update, here is the latest visible of the possible subtropical storm off South America. Looks quite impressive.

img src="Photobucket" alt="" />
.
NWS New Orleans this morning.

Factors remain in place for our severe weather event Monday into
Monday night. Lifted indices around -5...convective available potential energy 1500 or
more...helicities 300-600...60 knot h850 jet and an upper system in
the process of closing off and going negatively tilted as it moves
through the area. While main Mode of convection will be a squall
line with attendant damaging winds...any convection that develops
ahead of the line will have the potential to become supercellular
and tornadic. Best estimate on timing right now would have squall
line crossing Lake Pontchartrain around 6 PM Monday evening.
Precipitable water values above 1.50 inches...so heavy rain also
in the equation. No major changes to information going out in severe weather potential statement.
Storm,
What is your current thinking for Florida with this next storm? It looks like it all depends upon where that low develops. This could get a bit tricky to forecast.
For Tuesday here in South Florida, my forecast calls for showers and strong storms likely with a 60% rain chance. Does that seem reasonable?
Looks like a Bad severe threat StormW. They are especially vigilante as to Monday here since there are many still in FEMA trailers.

I may be wrong, but I am favoring the CMC right now, which seems like the GFS may have come more inline with it. There should be winter weather, but if the system is further inland, the winter wx will be toward the middle of the U.S. and I think the Great Lakes, and rain event for the NE. More of a eastward shift will bring more winter wx towards the NE (NorthEast).

Thanks Storm.
...SVR WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SERN STATES...NRN/CNTRL FL AND
THE ERN CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY...

...DISCUSSION...
UPR LOW EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE MID-SOUTH EARLY ON TUE WILL EJECT
NEWD AND PHASE WITH THE POLAR BRANCH OVER THE LWR GRTLKS REGION BY
WED. ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES FROM
MIDDLE TN EARLY TUE AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY WED NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP SEWD TO THE S OF THE LOW...REACHING THE ERN SEABOARD AND
CNTRL FL TUE NIGHT.

A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO ONGOING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY ON TUESDAY. STRONG SLY LLJ
WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE SERN STATES THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT THEN BEGIN TO MIGRATE NWD UP THE ATLC SEABOARD BY EVENING
AS THE PRIMARY CYCLONE EJECTS NEWD. GULF AND ATLC MOISTURE SHOULD
ADVECT INTO FL...MUCH OF GA AND THE ERN PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...
LIKELY MAINTAINING THE SQUALL LINE. MAGNITUDE OF LOW/MID-LVL FLOW
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BOWS AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS EXTREME ERN AL INTO GA AND MUCH OF NRN FL THROUGH LATE AFTN.
THE SQUALL LINE WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN WITH NRN EXTENT DUE TO LESS
INSTABILITY...AND WITH SRN EXTENT LATE IN THE AFTN AS OVERALL MASS
CONVERGENCE/SHEAR DIMINISH.

OTHERWISE...LATEST ECMWF/GFS ARE QUITE VARIED ON THE HANDLING OF THE
NEXT TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE PLAINS IN THE WED-FRI TIME
FRAME. AT LEAST HALF OF THE GEFS PERTURBATIONS SUPPORT THE ECMWF
IDEA OF CLOSING OFF ANOTHER LOW AND DROPPING IT SWD INTO MEXICO.
THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE/STRONGER GFS. AT THIS
POINT IN TIME...GIVEN POOR MODEL PREDICTABILITY...THE REMAINDER OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD SVR RISKS ARE UNCERTAIN.
Volusia out of free weather radios

Staff Report:

Volusia County residents who want weather warning radios will have to buy them, at least for awhile.

County officials announced late Friday that residents had picked up the last of 1,000 free weather radios handed out at the 16 branches of the county library system.

Story:Link


Dont be caught un-aware when it counts most.

NOAA Alert Weather Radio's: Link
92. StormW 11:05 AM EST on March 01, 2008
87. cchsweatherman 10:55 AM EST on March 01, 2008
Storm,
What is your current thinking for Florida with this next storm? It looks like it all depends upon where that low develops. This could get a bit tricky to forecast.


My thoughts exactly cch. Have to see how things start shaping up with that low. Skew-T will be helpful that morning.


95. StormW 11:14 AM EST on March 01, 2008
cchsweatherman,
How far along are you in your meteorological studies?

I had been attending college to go for my general A.A., then transfer and go for my B.S. in MET., but had to hang it up until things straighten out financially and stuff. Had just gotten into pre-calculus when I had to hang it up. Did good though at the last, with an A in college algebra, and a 3.7 GPA.


Just got into the second semester of my Freshman year. Right now, I'm at BCC taking the classes necessary to gain my AA before transferring out after next year to FIU where I will begin studying meteorology. At the same time, I'll have an internship at NBC6 working with a good friend in John Gerard. Thank God for the Bright Futures Scholarship. Right now, I'm at a 3.25 GPA.

Referring back to the first comment I pasted in, I've never heard of the Skew-T. What is that and could you provide a link to it? Thanks.
looks oh is back with us i think you all re call Ophelia from 2005 dont you? well Ophelia is back but this time it in the Southern Hem



Rare South Atlantic Tropical Cyclone

Brazillian Hurricane

During its daytime overpass of the southeast coast of Brazil on March 26, 2004, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra satellite captured this surprising sight: a tropical cyclone.
Question:

Has anybody used Google Earth to plot hurricane tracks? I want to use it for a presentation which demonstrates topographical effects on tropical systems, but am not sure exactly how to go about it.
Oh I love using Google Earth.....I plot tracks all the time...I have a historical database of hurricane tracks since 1851 that I can plot on there. I can give you the file for it if you have google earth.
Tropical Cyclone Tracker ..This viewer is an interactive track of every Atlantic Tropical Cyclone and Hurricane since 1950. To view a specific hurricane, select a year from the menu
Link
Anyway here's the link...you gotta do one decade at a time and then you can put them all in one folder in Google Earth.
Pat, Resize, please!
102. Levi32 12:10 PM EST on March 01, 2008
Anyway here's the link...you gotta do one decade at a time and then you can put them all in one folder in Google Earth.


Thanks, Levi. I really appreciate the help. I bookmarked your link so I can pull out what I need. I'm hoping I can put La Nina and El Nino storms that affected the Bahamas into different folders. Once I get done with it, I'll post what I did.
That's great baha, look forward to seeing it when you're done. Google Earth also has incredible storm-tracking ability during the hurricane season, I used it a lot last year to make neat graphics.
I think its important to remember that a strong pre-season La Nina has never resulted in a high activity storm season.The MDR region is quite cool right but that could change through the next 6 months.Iam thinking similar areas could very well be affected once again.My numbers are 13/7/3.

Only takes one so preps should always be completed come june1.

www.AdriansWeather.com
Almost forgot i got some great news from a friend with the hurricanehunters and we were chatting about the great new addition to the planes which now carry SFMR which will be a great addtion.Cant wait to see some results this season.Most planes if not all carry the new instruments.For more on this click Here.
Any chance this possible historic superstorm could surpass '93 next weekend?
108. weatherbro 12:51 PM EST on March 01, 2008
Any chance this possible historic superstorm could surpass '93?

Dont think so my friend.The threat for any real severe weather atleast for southeast florida is not there next week.Those type of events are rare.
109. hurricane23 12:53 PM EST on March 01, 2008
108. weatherbro 12:51 PM EST on March 01, 2008
Any chance this possible historic superstorm could surpass '93?

Dont think so my friend.The threat for any real severe weather atleast for southeast florida is not there next week.Those type of events are rare.


Like Storm and I have repeatedly said, it cannot be ruled out since it depends upon how far south the low develops. If it develops over the SE, then South Florida may get some significant weather coming to them by late in the week into the weekend. Just saying that it can't be ruled out since even the SPC and NWS have very little, if any handle, on this future storm.
Where did everyone go? Seems like everyone just disappeared at the same time.
112. GBlet
CC, does anybody have any info yet on upcoming tornado season in relation to La Nina?
113. GBlet
I happen to feel like a sitting duck this year, especially after Greensburg. I live in Great Bend,Ks.
To be honest, I don't know GBlet. Maybe Adrian or Storm could help you with that.
112. GBlet 1:17 PM CST on March 01, 2008
CC, does anybody have any info yet on upcoming tornado season in relation to La Nina?


La Nina = bad tornado seasons (last year was likely influenced by La Nina in its developing stages); I have posted about this several times (as in my blog here; I also posted about it in February 2007). For example, this sounds like last year, right? Well, it was referring to 1999:

La Nina Probably Contributed to Huge Tornadoes

Cooler than normal ocean temperatures in the mid-Pacific, called La Nina, have caused many bizarre weather effects in North America, including record snow and monster tornadoes.

Start Date: 5/10/99

A rash of killer tornadoes that swept through the midwest United States in early May -- including at least one giant F-5, the most powerful category, packing winds approaching 300 miles per hour -- were driven in part by La Nina, scientists say. The cold-water condition in the mid-Pacific ocean, also credited with dropping a record 91 feet of snow on mountains in Washington state this winter, can be expected to produce more devastating tornadoes in the coming months. Already the number recorded this season is running ahead of normal expectations.
"The signal is there," said Steve Byrd, science officer for the National Weather Service in Omaha, Neb. "The incidence of tornadoes on the central Plains is slightly higher during La Nina."

The monster F-5 tornado that hit Oklahoma City, Oklahoma on May 3, 1999 may be one of the most powerful twisters ever recorded. It cut a path of destruction 19 miles long and nearly one mile wide and stayed on the ground for a full hour -- an unheard-of duration for normal tornadoes.



The results indicate that El Nino events reduce tornadic activity in the southern plain states, while El Viejo events increase tornadic activity in the Ohio River Valley and Deep South. Results further show that El Nino inhibits the chances of multiple tornado outbreaks, while La Nina facilitates large tornadic outbreaks and produces more devastating tornadoes.

The goal of this study is to identify regions where there are statistically significant changes in seasonal tornadic activity due to extremes in the ENSO cycle. The results indicate that there are two areas that exhibit statistically significant changes in tornadic activity due to ENSO. The southern Great Plains during an El Nino spring season has fewer tornadoes, while the Ohio Valley and Deep South see more tornadoes during a La Nina spring.


And a recent news article:

La Nina, Warmth Mix for Tornadoes
By SETH BORENSTEIN %u2013 Feb 6, 2008

WASHINGTON (AP) %u2014 All the right ingredients combined for Tuesday's killer tornadoes, especially warm moist air and a shifting weather pattern courtesy of the La Nina phenomenon. Just one thing was off: The calendar.

The Feb. 5 killer tornadoes %u2014 at least the 15th deadliest U.S. outbreak on record %u2014 had all the earmarks of a batch of twisters usually seen in March, said several meteorologists.

It was farther north than most February tornadoes and stronger, said Joseph Schaefer, director of the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla.

Tornadoes do happen in February, but a study by Schaefer two years ago found that winter tornadoes in parts of the South occur more frequently and are stronger when there is a La Nina, a cooling of Pacific waters that is the flip side of the better known El Nino. In 1971, a deadlier February outbreak in the Mississippi Delta killed 121 people.

But Tuesday's weather violence, which killed at least 50 people, was noteworthy. February tornadoes usually pop up near the Gulf Coast, not in Kentucky or Tennessee, said University of Oklahoma meteorology professor Howard Bluestein.

Part of the explanation is record warmth. It was 84 degrees in Oklahoma before the storm front moved through on its path of destruction. On Tuesday, 97 weather stations broke or tied records in Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky %u2014 the hardest-hit states.

Meteorologists are quick to say they cannot blame global warming. There is not enough good data over enough years with weather events as small as tornadoes, to draw such conclusions.

But there were plenty of the standard ingredients for tornado formation Tuesday: a strong storm system coming from the west (this one buried parts of Colorado in snow); warm air near the ground; high winds; and warm moist air coming north from the Gulf of Mexico.

While La Nina doesn't specifically cause tornadoes, it helps shift the jet stream, pushing storms from the West and moisture from the Gulf into the necessary collision course over the South, said Schaefer.

Like El Nino, it happens every few years, and it's been changing global weather patterns for a few months now, strengthening in January, said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center, which monitors La Nina.

Preliminary figures for January %u2014 the numbers usually drop after closer scrutiny %u2014 show 136 tornadoes, five tornado deaths and three killer tornadoes. The average from 1997-2007 is 40 tornadoes, three deaths, and three killer tornadoes. The record for most tornadoes was 212 in January 1999.

Between 1997 and 2007, the average February has 30 tornadoes, killing 9 people. Early reports tallied 68 tornadoes so far this month.

"We're off to a big start for the year," said Greg Carbin, a meteorologist at the storm center.

Get used to this because the patterns that lead to tornado outbreaks seem to be here for a while, meteorologists said.

"As long as the pattern remains the same it can be very active," Schaefer said. "It's not a time to let down your guard."


Between 1997 and 2007, the average February has 30 tornadoes, killing 9 people. Early reports tallied 68 tornadoes so far this month.

Update - 232 tornadoes and 59 deaths in February (that is more deaths than ALL of 2004 and 2005)
Also, consider this:

The Super Outbreak occurred at the end of a very strong, nearly record-setting La Nina event. The 1973–74 La Nina was just as strong as the 1998–99 La Nina.

The current La Nina is stronger than the 1998-99 La Nina - and has even set some records (coldest monthly February Nino 3.4 SST and highest February SOI, which was also as high as the highest reading in the 1988-89 La Nina; also several monthly records for the Nino 1+2 region last year, including the coldest actual SSTs (not anomalies) ever recorded, also currently headed for a possible March record unless major warming occurs, as the record is -1.24 in 1989 and the anomaly last week was -1.9; there are however finally some signs that weakening may be occurring, which a big emphasis on "may" due to recent past history). That doesn't mean (and hopefully it doesn't) that we will have another Super Outbreak this year.
Michael,
Just was wondering what you expect for Florida with this impending storm and the next one depicted in the models?

Also, it seems like you have done a great amount of research on La Nina and El Nino. Keep it up since I do read your info and learn from it. I find it quite useful in trying to predict what could happen in hurricane season.
My numbers are 13/7/3.

Sounds reasonable.

Only takes one so preps should always be completed come june1.

Well said.
CCHSWEATHERMAN-Could you please give me some info about this storm that the computers are predicting?
3day GFSx 500 mb Plot, UNYSIS
Link
John Gerard is a great guy ive meet him a few times watch him all the time on CW during the week.
WFL surfers: looks like the anticipated active weather will also be bring waves to WFL/GOMEX The next front may deliver the biggest waves thus far this winter (of course that is relative in the GOMEX Looking to be chest high plus? On Tuesday rising seas out of the southwest at your winter spots. Wednesday the swell will be out of the northwest with an easy breeze. Presently the Gulf is 64 degrees. Start planning your "i can't get to work" excuses now!

East of I75 SRQ it was hot as blazes, worried we are going to look like a dust bowl by the end of the summer. Hope this front brings some quality rain. I'd skip catching waves in order to get rain.
I think La Nina saved us from the wildfires this spring in the SE - at least im hoping. The beginning of next week looks like it could be a little difficult for the south and southern Midwest according to the models.
Dog is taking me out for a walk - tomorrow
123. StormW 6:21 PM CST on March 01, 2008
121. Patrap 6:11 PM EST on March 01, 2008
3day GFSx 500 mb Plot, UNYSIS
Link

WOW!

Goes pretty quick from a positive tilt to a negative tilt trof. Good vort max.


I've got a question. What does that mean for the severe threat for SE TX/Upper TX Coast? Does that enhance severe activity?
Adrian,

I don't know why you keep on saying a strong pre-season La Nina has never resulted in an active hurricane season.

1950 ONI peaks @ -1.7
1950 Atlantic ACE - 243!!

1955 maintained a moderate La Nina throughout the season (~-1.0)
1955 Atlantic ACE - 199!!

1999 ONI peaks @ -1.5
1999 Atlantic ACE - 177!!

2000 ONI peaks @ -1.7
2000 Atlantic ACE - 116!!

These are all above normal seasons, in some cases 'hyperactive'

Evening all.

Here are my preliminary findings for

Bahamian Tropical Cyclone Strikes 1950 - 2007.

During this period, a total of 80 tropical systems, ranging from tropical depression to Category 4, passed within a 75-mile radius of the Bahamas, which works out to about 1.38 systems per year. Of these, 25 occurred in ENSO-positive periods, 28 in ENSO-negative periods, and 27 in ENSO-neutral periods. Thus it seems that ENSO does not have a markedly serious effect on the number of hurricanes that affect the Bahamas in a particular season. However, tropical cyclones were seen in only 12 ENSO-neutral seasons, as compared with 15 El Nino and 15 La Nina seasons. There may therefore be a slightly smaller chance that a TC will affect the Bahamas during ENSO-neutral years.

The vast majority of TC strikes in the Bahamas during the 1950 - 2007 period occurred in the peak months of August, September, and October, with 21, 23, and 22 occurrences respectively. By comparison, the TOTAL number of strikes for the other three months of the season was only 18, and this included one pre-season strike in May. A preliminary look suggests that August storms are considerably less likely to occur in El Nino years; only 4 were found. The converse was seen in September, when only 6 of the 23 systems found formed in La Nina years. In October, a whopping 13 of 22 systems passed through in ENSO-neutral years, compared with only 5 and 4 systems in El Nino and La Nina years respectively.

I need to do some further analysis to determine whether stronger systems are more likely to affect the Bahamas during a particular part of the ENSO cycle.

Only about 20 of the 80 systems surveyed affected the Bahamas as hurricanes, and more than half were depressions for their entire passage through Bahamian waters. Notably, 2 of 20 systems between 1970 and 1990 were hurricanes in the vicinity of the Bahamas. One other thing I noticed was the large number of systems which had the Bahamas as either a beginning or ending point. I never thought of my homeland as the hurricane nursery or the hurricane graveyard . . .
Sullivan, I have seen studies suggesting less active ATL seasons are correlated with El Nino rather than La Nina. La Nina seems to have a greater effect on WHERE the storms form and track than on how many form.
that is some nice info baha. i am glad you posted that i found it very interesting.
Thanks, guy. No one around here (I mean in the Bahamas) seems to be compiling this relatively simple to access data, so I needed to satisfy my own curiosity.

When I'm finished, I'll post the whole thing on my blog, hopefully with some graphics courtesy of Levi32.
Great information there, Baha. I can't wait until you're done with it.
BAHA-Dr.Gray was saying that during el Nino years the upper level winds associated with the Q.B.O would usually reduce hurricane formation in the atlantic basin by about 40%.Do you agree with his findings?
Adrian,

I don't know why you keep on saying a strong pre-season La Nina has never resulted in an active hurricane season.


La Nina tends to enhance the strength of Atlantic hurricanes, and also the track (as was already stated above by Baha) of the storms (they tend to form further south and strike further south and west, like Dean, Felix, Gilbert, and Allen did, although Allen did not hit in a La Nina year). Numbers seem to be only affected a minimal amount.

But I have noticed, and this is probably what Adrian is referring to, is that La Nina tends to cool the Atlantic, and El Nino tends to warm it. This is, of course, speaking only from my observations, which have only been over the last few years.
BAHA-Dr.Gray was saying that during el Nino years the upper level winds associated with the Q.B.O would usually reduce hurricane formation in the atlantic basin by about 40%.Do you agree with his findings?

The QBO is pretty much independent of ENSO, alternating on a two year (approximate) cycle, hence the name quasi-biennial oscillation (here is a list of monthly values); for example, while it was positive (westerly winds in the stratosphere) during the last three El Ninos (2002, 2004 and 2006), it was also positive during a strong La Nina (1999). Hurricane activity also varied widely among those years (I did note that 2006 had the most positive QBO of those years, and the least activity). 2008 looks like it could also be positive; last year was very strongly negative, as was 2005 (in fact, both years were at or near record lows, but 2005 didn't have a strong La Nina; by contrast, 1988 had a very weakly negative QBO and late 1998 and 1999 were opposites with similar ENSO conditions).
Adrian said the following:

I think its important to remember that a strong pre-season La Nina has never resulted in a high activity storm season.

I don't know what years he's looking at, but this is completely false.

One also cannot ignore the propensity for East Coast tropical cyclone strikes during these La Nina years.
Feel free to read up on a good read from a friend up in melbourne his numbers and forcast for the 2008 season.He is usually on the money.

When the M/J/J average SST anomaly is +0.6C or greater, 92% of the time the season storm total will be 8 named storms or less. When that average is -0.6C or greater, 92% of the time the season storm total will be 13 named storms or less (and 75% of the time the season storm total will be 9 to 13 named storms, i.e., a normal season. Note that a normal season, because of the increased activity since 1995, is now 11 named storms. Added: Since the start of the satellite era, the past 43 seasons in the Atlantic basin have averaged 11 named storms of which 6 became hurricanes and 2 of those became major hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 111mph.) A strong pre-season La Nina has never resulted in a high activity storm season. Ninety percent of high activity seasons occur under ENSO neutral pre-season conditions."

More Here
Also el nino/nina are only a small portion of tropical cyclone formation.There are many factors that go into a developing tropical cyclone such as sst's , wind shear and the amount of SAL that comes off Africa. The water temp could be 85 degrees but if theres dry air in the vicinity convection will have a very tough time getting going.
Personally ive given up on forcasting el nino and nina.There are just to many things that are involved.For all we know a nino will come out of no were in september.Not likely though.
I have been wondering how the PDO affects Atlantic SSTs; this map only shows the Gulf and East Coast (which are shown as ~0.5*C warmer than normal during cool PDO phases, image on right side):



I think i'll stick to forcasting a 2 week steering pattern rather then forcasting el nino/nina.
i see everyone is getting ansy about hurricane season. just playing
Nope....5-6 months for the real season.

Hope everyone has a great sunday!

www.AdriansWeather.com
141. hurricane23 10:46 PM EST on March 01, 2008
Also el nino/nina are only a small portion of tropical cyclone formation.There are many factors that go into a developing tropical cyclone


Very true. I think it's interesting, though, that so many of the "smaller" facters, like some of those you mentioned, are related to larger synoptic events like MJO, PDO, ENSO, et al. I'm becoming more convinced over time that a better understanding of global weather patterns will lead to improved forecasting on a storm by storm basis.
I wonder if anybody out there is speculating on what causes ENSO to cycle. I. E. why did we have that "sudden" flip-flop from the expected La Nina to El Nino in 2006? Why the flop back to La Nina in 2007? I've seen a fair amount of observation of the mechanism, but not much on what is driving the machine.

Thankfully the severe weather threat for the southeast florida is not there next week as most of the energy will remain to the north of the area.Showers/thunderstorms will be on the increase though.
150. BahaHurican 11:08 PM EST on March 01, 2008
I wonder if anybody out there is speculating on what causes ENSO to cycle. I. E. why did we have that "sudden" flip-flop from the expected La Nina to El Nino in 2006? Why the flop back to La Nina in 2007? I've seen a fair amount of observation of the mechanism, but not much on what is driving the machine.

Baha its extremely difficult to forcast and to unpredictable for me atleast.
143. hurricane23 10:53 PM EST on March 01, 2008
Personally ive given up on forcasting el nino and nina.There are just to many things that are involved.For all we know a nino will come out of no were in september.Not likely though.


The data I've been working with suggests that if even a moderate La Nina is still around in April, we're very unlikely to get into an El Nino before the season is over. There was only one year, 1968, when an El Nino started before the year was out. Frankly, I don't see us getting back to ENSO-neutral before June. Even if we do get out of the La Nina, neutral years tend to yield slightly higher numbers formation-wise and an increased chance of US landfalls.

All this makes for a potentially interesting hurricane season. I may even try a long-range forecast this year LOL.
Hey, 23. I'm not thinking so much about forecasting when it will happen as I am about WHY it happens. After looking at all the different years, I have been wondering what causes such a drastic, and seemingly arbitrary, shift. I find it hard to believe it "just happens".
I wonder if anybody out there is speculating on what causes ENSO to cycle. I. E. why did we have that "sudden" flip-flop from the expected La Nina to El Nino in 2006? Why the flop back to La Nina in 2007? I've seen a fair amount of observation of the mechanism, but not much on what is driving the machine.

There are several theories to explain the cycles; the recharge oscillator one sounds good to me (El Nino events deplete heat in the upper ocean while it builds up again during La Ninas, as is currently happening):

Causes of El Nino
The mechanisms which might cause an El Nino event are still being investigated. It is difficult to find patterns which may show causes or allow forecasts. As the phenomenon is located near the equator, events in both hemispheres may have an effect. As the weather events are somewhat chaotic, the onsets of El Nino-events may also be. This is not to say predicting is totally impossible.


Major theories
Jacob Bjerknes in 1969 suggested that an anomalously warm spot in the eastern Pacific can weaken the east-west temperature difference, causing weakening in the Walker circulation and trade wind flows, which push warm water to the west. The result is increasingly warm water toward the east.

Wyrtki in 1975 proposed that increased trade winds could build up the western bulge of warm water, and any sudden weakening in the winds would allow that warm water to surge eastward. However, there was no such buildup preceding the 1982-83 event.

Recharge oscillator: Several mechanisms have been proposed where warmth builds up in the equatorial area, then is dispersed to higher latitudes by an El Nino event. The cooler area then has to "recharge" warmth for several years before another event can take place.

Western Pacific oscillator: In the western Pacific, several weather conditions can cause westerly wind anomalies. For example, cyclones north and south of the equator force west-to-east winds between. Such wind may counteract the typical easterly flows across the Pacific and create a tendency toward continuing the eastward motion. A weakening in the westward currents at such a time may be the final trigger needed to shift into an El Nino.

Equatorial Pacific Ocean may tend to be near El Nino conditions, with several random variations affecting behavior. Weather patterns from outside the area or volcanic events may be some such factors.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is an important source of variability that can contribute to a more rapid evolution toward El Nino conditions through related fluctuations in low-level winds and precipitation over the western and central equatorial Pacific. Eastward-propagating oceanic Kelvin waves can be produced by MJO activity. The MJO may in turn be influenced by a developing El Nino, leading to a positive feedback[12].

Adams, Mann and Ammann showed in 2003, using statistical analysis of paleoclimatic records, that a volcanic event in the tropics tends to trigger a three year El Nino followed by three years of La Nina.



Also, here is a chart of SST and heat content anomlaies since 2002 that show several ENSO cycles, and how heat content decreases during El Nino events and increases during La Ninas (in the western Pacific):

On the storm next week, it looks interesting here - the 00z NAM has a 1-in-100 year snowstorm (liquid equivalents shown):



With such a strong storm, the severe weather side may be pretty bad (I have already seen some rather strongly worded statements from NWS offices)... not to mention flooding, after the wettest February on record (for at least the southern half of Missouri, likely other areas as well).
The snowstorm back home in St. Louis looks pretty bad from what I have seen too.

A few buddy's and I r going to North Texas/Southern Oklahoma tomorrow to chase. Hopefully we get a few isolated storms out in front of the main line that will form tomorrow afternoon. If the cap can get broken, things could get very interesting tomorrow.
Good Morning, for the hurricane seasons of 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007. I used these indicators to help put together a hurricane season forecast at the beginning of each month for June, July, August, September and October. I donot make one forecast in June for the whole season because some of these indicators are highly variable from June to September and September to December.

Tropical Forecasting

a. Surface Pressure and SST Anomalies

b. Upper Wind Anomalies (Westerly, Increasing)

c. Location and intensity of the monsoon trough, ITCZ, subtropical high-pressure ridge*, African Easterly Jet.

d. The Southern Oscillation

e. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)

f. Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO)

g. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)

h. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL)

i. The Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough/Lows (TUTT)


Medium-Long Range Forecasts 30-60 days

These are just brief descriptions, details will be posted as the hurricane season nears

During the QBO, Atlantic tropical cyclones are more frequent when 30 mb winds are westerly and increasing, rather than easterly and increasing.

During El Nino, high SST over the eastern Pacific causes more deep convection there. The resultant outflow aloft enhances upper tropospheric westerlies over the Caribbean and western equatorial Atlantic. Consequently, the 200 mb anticyclonic flow necessary for tropical cyclones to develop is reduced. During Neutrals and weak to moderate La Ninas, low SSTs over the eastern Pacific supresses deep convection there. The resultant subidence enhances lift and weak to moderate upper level easterlies over the Tropical Atlantic Summer, which favors tropical cyclone development.

During the hurricane season in the Caribbean basin, below normal monthly mean sea level pressure is associated with increased hurricane activity. Pressure anomalies tend to persist from spring through summer.

During times of wind surges into the Monsoon trough, NECZ or ITCZ during late July, August and September, expect increase tropical convection and activity.

During the MJO Active Phase, low level rising and upper level drivergence, thus enhanced convection is favored.

Increase velocities of the African Easterly Jet was found to increase in the intensity and frequency of African Tropical Waves. Examples include Ivan (2004), Florence and Helene (2006) and Dean (2007).

SAL can affect tropical cyclones is several ways but during the period from 2004-2007 I observed only two. Increase African Dust actually lowers SSTs not the entire tropical Atlantic but the area just west of the Cape Verde. Increase African Dust creates a dry enviroment within the mid-levels which enhances subsidence and downdraft and suppresses tropical convection.

The Positive NAO index phase shows a stronger than usual subtropical high pressure center and a deeper than normal Icelandic low. The negative NAO index phase shows a weak subtropical high and a weak Icelandic low. African easterly waves are impelled along the southern periphery of the Azores High away from coastal West Africa towards North America and the Caribbean, sometimes triggering tropical cyclogenesis. The position and intensity of high also affects upwelling along the African Coast, how arid West African gets during the summer months (SAL), surges into the ITCZ, Monsoon Trough, etc., the pressure gradient between a TC low pressure and the high pressure cell. All these factors are compiled and made into a forecast. A stronger High also increases SSTs in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico due to downwelling (the opposite of upwelling). A stronger high also indicates that tropical cyclones move faster and make it more westward than usually (like Frances, Ivan, Dean). It must be remembered that the Bermuda High is just a westward extentsion of the Azores High and only becomes seperated during the passage of frontal troughs and in rare cases, tropical cyclones (Maria 2005).

The Famous TUTT, my second most favorite tropical feature of the summer months (Tropical Cyclone 1st). The TUTT should not be confused with troughs in the mid-laltitude westerlies because unlike those troughs, the TUTT is tropical and mainatined by subidence. The TUTT extends from the North central or Northeastern Atlantic roughly 35-40N/40W all the way to Central America in some cases. The TUTT is more of a short term forecasting tools as it is so variable during the hurricane season. TUTTs can either increase wind shear over tropical system or enhanced outflow through outflow channels. Also TUTTS are respobsible for the sudden "blow-up" in convection of inverted V tropical waves in the Eastern Caribbean which can lead to genesis (Ernesto 2006).

Well most of this information came from those four hurricane seasons. But Climatology is an important tool and the Atlantic Ocean is the most well studied basin in the world. Another useful tool is by looking at past tropical cyclone season and see how each phenomena mentioned above affected that season. Like Neutral-Enso in 1995.

I hope this help those who want to try a hand at forecasting.


Just more info, All will me reposted later in the year.

Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation Sources
a. Persistent area of thunderstorms or convection (synoptic in size)
b. The monsoon trough, NECZ, or ITCZ
c. A tropical wave
d. A dissipating frontal boundary or frontal low
e. An extratropical cyclone/a subtropical cyclone
f. An upper level low
g. A surface trough of low pressure (other than NETs)
h. The interaction between remnant disturbances, tropical waves, upper–mid tropospheric troughs

NETs - Nearequatorial Troughs like the monsoon trough, ITCZ, etc.
162. P451
QPF off the charts for this upcoming event. Good news for the mid-south sans any severe potential.

Day 1

Day 2

Day 3
Anticyclonic Divergence Aloft displayed by Ioke in 2006



Low Level Convergence - Hurricane Florence in 2006

Note: when I was comparing the 2nd storm to the 93 S.S it was in forecast track and available ingredients. I also stated that 93 was a 1 in 100yr event, and while the 2nd storm may have similarities, It would be doubtful that it would have the strength of 93. The 1-2 punch of these 2 storms could be a huge rainmaker for the whole state of FL. While the severe threat would likely be farther north, the frontal boundary will pass over us at least twice with ample moisture. It may even go stationary in between the two storm systems over S.Fl making next week very wet.
BahaHurican 4:23 AM GMT on March 02, 2008
Hey, 23. I'm not thinking so much about forecasting when it will happen as I am about WHY it happens. After looking at all the different years, I have been wondering what causes such a drastic, and seemingly arbitrary, shift. I find it hard to believe it "just happens"
.

Baha...It is called Chaos and more specifically, it is Chaos Theory that can be used to explain your disbelief that it "just happens"

A good explanation can be found in 'Jurasic Park', where Jeff Goldbloom explains how water arbritraily flows down the finger of the other character.

When it comes to attempting to forcast weather issues such as global warming we must always keep in mind that weather patterns occur over periods of hundreds and thousands of years...not in periods of single and groups of single digit years.

Another thing that is important to keep in mind is the fact that the sensitivity of our instrumentation has come into its own in the last twenty years and with that sensitivity comes the ability to see small perturbations in weather activity. If our observers were better trained, they would know not to attempt to dogmatically tie the information gathered with the new instrumentation with the old data gathered with much less sensitive instrumentation.

It is very curious that Dr. M. has yet to comment on the fact that the sun is at a minimum of sunspot activity and that means significantly less energy production which means that all bets are off when it comes to global warming. Doesn't it seem odd to you that we now have two significant issues that he has appeared to avoid discussing. The first is the report from NOAA and the second being the sunspot issue.

It all boils down to this...forcasting the weather and hurricanes is still best done by old style forcasting which accepts the randomness of the weather and still attempts to make common sense of it. Observing El Nino and La Nina is appropriate...predicting when and where flies in the face of Chaos Thoery and, in the long run distracts from good old common sense weather prediction.

Maybe there is a book called Statistics for Dummies out there. If there is maybe we could all read it and see why those who engage in the hysterical alarmist wailings are inappropriate and even dangerous. Read the article describing the report by NOAA scientists debunking the alarmist claims of 'worst damage in history'.

Good old weather science...yeah that's the ticket.
Good morning everyone...

From what ive seen so far the GFS doesn't have much run-to-run consistency or support for the Friday-Saturday storm. It does show a potent frontal boundary affecting Florida with QPF ranging from 0.50 to 1.25.

The "big one" seems like the first system that will develop in the southcentral US and bring very heavy rainfall to the northeast on Wednesday and severe weather to the south on Monday.


Good morning.

156. MichaelSTL 11:26 PM EST on March 01, 2008

There are several theories to explain the cycles; the recharge oscillator one sounds good to me (El Nino events deplete heat in the upper ocean while it builds up again during La Ninas, as is currently happening):


I think I agree with you, STL, that the "recharge oscillator" sounds logical. We already understand the concept of the cycle. Our next task, following this theory, is to determine at what point the depletion or buildup is likely to trigger a new event. If this is the case, there is hope for reliable prediction to take place.

It also supports my thinking that since hurricanes are a part of this heat distribution system, understanding this larger system is likely to lead to improved tropical forecasting ability.

I'm also thinking I understand why some scientists expect increased / radical global warming to result in a severe cooling period. However, taking the same point to its logical conclusion, wouldn't a period of severe cooling (like that experienced in the 1800s)trigger a warming trend as seen in the 1900s?

160. Weather456 7:23 AM EST on March 02, 2008
Good Morning, for the hurricane seasons of 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007. I used these indicators to help put together a hurricane season forecast


BEAUTIFUL! Thanks 456! I'm seriously considering trying my hand at a season forecast this year, and this information is very useful to me. I have a lot of respect for your interpretation of tropical weather events, so I am saving this post to a Word file for future reference.
165. lindenii 9:11 AM EST on March 02, 2008

It is very curious that Dr. M. has yet to comment on the fact that the sun is at a minimum of sunspot activity ....


Why don't you drop him an email about it? He may not have seen your comments in the bulk of the blog.

Observing El Nino and La Nina is appropriate...predicting when and where flies in the face of Chaos Thoery and, in the long run distracts from good old common sense weather prediction.

I don't see wanting to answer the question "WHY" as going against science or common-sense prediction. If my memory serves me (it does occasionally :o) it is that very question which has driven scientific discovery over the centuries. Observation is integral to the scientific method, but it all just produces a bunch of numbers and facts unless we look for patterns in what we see.

The trick is not to become dogmatic about the patterns, to recognise that our understanding is never complete, and even if it happened to become complete, the patterns change.
BTW, what's the latest on TC Ophelia?


Latest on Ophelia.
Good morning all! It looks like one nasty storm is going to develop for Friday and Saturday all across the eastern half of the country. This could cause major chaos at the airports and on the roads.
Since the computer models nor the NWS or SPC have a very good handle on this major storm forecasted for Friday and Saturday, I will have to put off my forecasts for those days until we can have some confidence in the forecast. Right now, I want to forecast widespread showers and strong storms for South Florida late Friday and Saturday, but cannot do that yet. Any advice on how I should forecast those days with such low confidence?
169

If you are going to give that particular individual the time of day please do not post quotes. The season is fast approaching and unless he has recovered from his need to obsessively post on 1 topic ad-infinitum with nothing new from post to post I consider it a major waste of space.
175. ShenValleyFlyFish 10:25 AM EST on March 02, 2008
169

If you are going to give that particular individual the time of day please do not post quotes.


Advice taken. (Hopefully some other people will take advice also.) I will make use of wundermail in future.
funny you should bring up the word Chaos. In my uneducated mind, I often wonder how much of weather can be successfully predicted with the "rules" of science. And how much does random chaos play a part - rendering humans limits in our predictions.
169. BahaHurican 2:52 PM GMT on March 02, 2008

I don't see wanting to answer the question "WHY" as going against science or common-sense prediction. If my memory serves me (it does occasionally :o) it is that very question which has driven scientific discovery over the centuries. Observation is integral to the scientific method, but it all just produces a bunch of numbers and facts unless we look for patterns in what we see.

The trick is not to become dogmatic about the patterns, to recognise that our understanding is never complete, and even if it happened to become complete, the patterns change.


**************

Exactly. Asking 'Why' is the scientific thing to do. Unfortunately, what seems to continually happen is that 'theory' somehow becomes 'edict' and those who are not in step with that 'edict' ie global warming is man-made... are called 'coolies' or 'denialists'.

I intend to continue to 'shine the light of truth' on those 'edict based' individuals and their tactics until they go back to being true scientists who are willing to let both sides be discussed and debated without the name calling and shunning.

Those who want to jump to the ignore button when a serious challenge is made to their desire for a 'edict based' view of weather and mans being at the cause of it all are doing themselves and the rest of us a disservice by impeeding the forward progress of weather observation and prediction.

Nature is Random...get used to it.
After looking at 5 strong La Nina seasons and 8 moderate to strong El Nino seasons, I can say I am totally confused about patterns related to storm numbers and storm landfalls
LOL

The la nina seasons averaged about 13 storms, half of which did not affect any mainland area (for my convenience, I am leaving out the islands). A lot of the stronger hurricanes stayed out to sea.

The el nino seasons fluctuated wildly. There is one season, 1969, with 20 systems!!! However, the storm average per season is around 10 (5 of the 8 seasons had 8 or fewer storms). Also the percentage of landfalling storms was smaller, though the same wild fluctuations were seen (anywhere from 13 to 75 percent, in fact). About 40% of the storms affected the mainland. Some notable "record" hurricanes happened during these years, but the majority of systems were not especially powerful.

I guess what I am getting at is what 23 was stating last night; ENSO is not the sole determining factor, so perhaps it is wiser to stick to the 2-week formation prognosis. OTOH, I encourage the Dr. Grays of the world, so long as they don't suggest that people's lives should depend on their forecasts . . .
175. ShenValleyFlyFish 3:25 PM GMT on March 02, 2008
169

If you are going to give that particular individual the time of day please do not post quotes. The season is fast approaching and unless he has recovered from his need to obsessively post on 1 topic ad-infinitum with nothing new from post to post I consider it a major waste of space.


***************

Thanks for providing a perfect example of the 'edict based' metality.

Somehow excising our words and ideas will result in a more perfect world where only your way of discussion is practiced. Sniff sniff...almost smells of censorship.

Fortunately, many of those who visit here and are lurkers do not engage in such censorship practices are still being reached. They are the ones I am most intent on reaching out to. Those of you in the 'edict based' world have your minds made up and it is senseless to attempt to convice you otherwise.

To you 'edict based' shunners I say ...Please...Please...Keep shunning me, I sleep better at night knowing I am making a difference.
A totally unrelated question:

Should Wunderbloggers seriously consider their efforts and discussions part of the advancement of weather science, whether locally or globally, or should they view their activities as simply "personal events" that contribute mainly to their own enjoyment and interpretation of the world around them?
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm?...

Here's a link to interesting information on The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

Take a look at this chart.



Is it my imagination, or is there a correlation between volume of ATL hurricane formation and PDO orientation?
Pat, LOL, and /swipe/

Saving that one for future use . . .
Da Thinka, LOL
Say, I just looked at the TIME!!!

I gotta go! I'll check in later to see what people are thinking about lots of things.
The Applied Meteorology Unit
A cooperative effort of NASA, the USAF and the NWS

Link
Good afternoon all

With all the talk about La Nina, check out my blog, with early La Nina predictions.
Baha, thank you for that comment there.

***************************************

....SYNOPSIS....

GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....

As a an extratropical storm system moves across the Eastern Rockies, a modest ridge extends from Florida to the Bay of Campeche providing moderate anticyclonic flow, 4-5 ft seas and fair weather across much of the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast United States. Meanwhile, the pressure gradient between the ridge and the aforementioned storm system is resulting in pronounce onshore flow and enhancing the Plains Low Level Jet resulting in widespread overcast low clouds cover much of Texas and surrounding states. The weather pattern across the Gulf should become more interesting in the upcoming days as a frontal system pushes into the region in 48 hrs time accompanied by gale force conditions over the Gulf west of 90W. Expect northwesterlies of 20-35 knots and swells of 14-17 ft. This will then spread southeastward across the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico but with less umph than that experienced further west.

A swath of cloudiness and showers extends from the Northwest Cuban Coast, across the Central-Northern Bahamas and along 25N/70W 30N/60W and beyond. This activity is associated with a stalled out fontal boundary. The Tropical Prediction Center has analyzed this feature as a surface trough but I cannot understand why, when there a frontal ropes, wind and temperature gradients present. Exceptionally fair skies and fine weather behind this feature due to dry offshore flow and surface ridging. Meanwhile, patches of subtropical low clouds...typical...are seen within the return flow ahead of the front/trough between 50W and 70W north of 15N.

CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

The aforementioned surface front/trough extends into the Northwest Caribbean between Western Cuba and the Gulf of Honduras. Here, motions of the scattered low clouds more clearly depict a weak surface trough. A fair amount mid-upper level dry air covers the entire Caribbean basin, thereby deep convection remains absent and only low scattered tradewind clouds are seen. Trades are blowing at 10-20 knots and building swells of 6-7 ft everywhere, with 11 ft seas along the Colombian Coast/SW Caribbean due to the pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and the Colombian Low and Eastern Pacific Equatorial Trough.

by W456
GOM 120 Hour Sea Surface Surface Temperature Forecast
Link
120 Hour GOM Surface Current Forecast

Link
183. BahaHurican 10:32 AM CST on March 02, 2008
Here's a link to interesting information on The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)


A interesting thing is that the Gulf and Atlantic that can be seen here are warmer during the "cold" (probably more proper to say "La Nina-like" since many areas are warmer, and also cooler during the "warm" phase) phase of the PDO (right side):



Current SST anomalies:

weather456, that was a good post at 8;23 this morning.
Also, I came across an interesting page on the PDO, AMO and U.S. drought last night:



The above shows that the worst droughts are during the warm AMO phase, and especially when there is also a cool PDO present. Why is this interesting? Well, look at the CFS forecast for September-November:



See a similarity between the map of cool PDO and warm AMO drought correlation? Also, as for the AMO, I think it is still positive because of the very warm northern Atlantic, even if the tropics are somewhat cool (I recall Gray using the SST anomaly off Europe to define the AMO).
Interesting stuff there, STL.
181. BahaHurican 4:24 PM GMT on March 02, 2008
A totally unrelated question:

Should Wunderbloggers seriously consider their efforts and discussions part of the advancement of weather science, whether locally or globally, or should they view their activities as simply "personal events" that contribute mainly to their own enjoyment and interpretation of the world around them?


*************

The answer is...probably both.

You never know when a Wunderblogger will put an idea out there that will be the exact missing piece to another Wunderbloggers puzzle. By allowing all to participate regardless of their particular theoretical persuasion regarding the science of weather, we will all benefit.

It is only when we choose to become 'edict based' that damage is done to our pursuit of the truth.

Nature is Random...Get over it.
CCW, I would tell all interests in the southeast US including the FL peninsula to watch the 2nd storm closely. With the trailing front possibly stalling out over S.Fl from the 1st storm, there is flood potential for the Fl Peninsula, and Severe wx threat for Gulf Coast states from both storm systems, maybe big snow not far north of severe wx with the 2nd system. This could be an interesting week.
As always most of the energy will ride north of extreme southeast florida.

NWS-Miami Discussion.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE WEATHER QUESTION FOR THIS PERIOD
IS, FROPA OR NO FROPA? LOOKS LIKE NOW THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS MORE
IN PHASE WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN. AND THIS IS DEFINITELY MORE
ENCOURAGING WHEN IT COMES TO BELIEVING THE MDL'S OUTPUT. THIS
LATEST RUN SHOWS A NOT SO DEEP S/W MOVING ACROSS SE U.S AND
LIFTING FURTHER NORTHWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF GREAT LAKES BY TUE
NIGHT. SRN PORTION OF CDFNT LOOSES ITS PUNCH AND SLOWS DOWN
CONSIDERABLY AS MOST OF THE ENERGY IS TRANSFERED NORTH, AN SO
IT CRAWLS THROUGH S. FL THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE STALLING AND
STARTS MOVING BACK NORTH WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. WHILE WILL NOT
RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A STG TSTM OR TWO WITH THIS SYSTEM, IT
NOW LOOKS THAT ANY SVR WX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WHERE BETTER DYNAMICS ARE FORECAST.


Sounds good.Overall a wettern pattern seems to be instored for the area.

www.AdriansWeather.com

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
337 PM CST sun Mar 2 2008



Middle and upper air analysis showed the trough axis from North
Dakota to The Four Corners region. Moist southwest flow was
noted over southern and Central Plains...mainly from 850 to 700mb.
Visible satellite imagery showed a cloud shield at this same layer
over southern and Central Plains.


With the approach of the system Monday...low level south to
southwest winds will increase. Storm relative helicity values will
increase to 300 to 350 M/S by 12z Monday. At the same...southwest
flow will bring in the warm nose or slight cap. If canopy is in
place...surface will not heat sufficiently. High temperatures closer to
80 will overcome the lid and cells are likely to develop in the
warm sector Monday. Surface forcing with the front approach will
force development through this lid. The main trough axis will be
located from north Missouri to north central Texas Monday afternoon. At
the this time...the jet maximum of 120 knots should be located just
east of the base of the trough or from the Texas Hill country to
the arklatex region...placing the best divergence over Louisiana
and Mississippi. Moreover...model area forecast sounding at 00z
Tuesday displayed cape values from 700 to 1000 j/kg across the
forecast area. With all these features in place...strong cell storms
are possible over west zones Monday afternoon becoming more linear
and more speed shear during the evening and overnight. The main
threat will be isolated tornadoes...one or two strong north and
west of Lake Pontchartrain...wind damage and hail. Will issue a Special
Weather Statement to highlight these threats. Boundary winds and
low level winds ahead does not appear as strong in the models as
previous runs have indicated. In addition...cold air advection
does not appear to be as strong as previously thought. However...the
pressure gradients associated with a deep 1004mb passing east
across the deep south maintain bl winds to the sea surface near
100 percent...especially Monday evening.
200. IKE
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
339 PM CST sun Mar 2 2008


Discussion...
strong cold front is now blasting through the southeast Texas
Panhandle and should be out of the County Warning Area by the time this forecast GOES
into affect. Will go ahead and cancel the Severe Thunderstorm Watch
with this forecast as well. Since low level moisture will continue
to get scoured with the front.


Our eyes then turn to developing winter storm that is moving
southeast into northwest New Mexico. The upper low over
northwest New Mexico is expected to close off as it moves into
southeast New Mexico/West Texas on Monday morning. The dynamics
with this system will be quite strong when this system closes
off with plenty of divergence aloft with the coupling of the
upper jets. Low level moisture will get drawn northward into the
panhandles and this moisture will ride up and over the vigorous
frontal zone. A 700 mb low is expected to form as well and it should
move right across the Texas Panhandle. The north winds will continue
to be quite gusty and will be in the 20 to 30 mile an hour range
with gusts near 45. Snow will spread from northwest to southeast
across the panhandles overnight and will slowly exit the
southeast Texas Panhandle by Monday afternoon. Snowfall amounts
look to be in the 2 to 4 inch range...with locally higher
amounts. There is a possibility of greater than 4 inch amounts...
especially in the southern Texas Panhandle...closer to the upper
low track. Thought about issuing a Blizzard Warning due to
reduced visibilities in blowing and drifting snow...but
confidence is not high enough right now that enough snow will
fall to get considerable blowing snow considering the expected wet
nature of the snow. If it does look like some areas will get
greater than 4 inches in a more widespread area...then a Blizzard
Warning will be considered.
Weather will get interesting here in South Florida this week as the front will stall out over us. Could be a focal point for some much needed rains over the area. Looking at the latest GFS model, I have become concerned about Saturday where there will be very strong surface vorticity riding the frontal boundary over us. This could cause some significant severe weather here late Friday into Saturday. Nonetheless, we will finally return to a wet pattern for longer than a couple days. Thoughts on Friday and Saturday here?
Another PDO link
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bro/pdo.htm

I also found this interesting site showing Jet Stream location in the N and S hemispheres . . . It has current data, forecasts, AND a map archive going back to 2005.
weatherman, I've seen the models and I'm not sure what you're so excited about...most of the weather looks like it will happen right around Tampa Bay on Thursday into Friday....I don't see much around South Florida
204. IKE
18Z GFS shows some heavy rain into south Florida the end of next week....

Link
Some places out west are under a tornado warning and a blowing snow advisory.

I hope we get some heavy rain here in
N.C.As always, the mountains will block the severe weather and some rain for the rest of the state.

Anyone have a good guess how much rain the southeast will get?
Although with the first storm system, severe weather will remain more north of FL Peninsula. I doubt the associated front will stall out since:

1. storm #2 isn't close enough to #1

2. Atlantic ridge is weak.

Yet it may slow down a bit. Friday night Saturday morning will be the main thing to watch.

Like CCHSweatherman mentioned that computer models are divided.
Hows that South Atlantic storm doing?
Notice the inflow here..Wichita Live Cam..Link


South Atlantic storm.
Also noticed this area in the S. Indian, which looks like it may be of interest in the ensuing week.

Looks like EUMETSAT is updating its website presentation.

EUMETSAT has developed a new, improved interface to view Near Real Time Derived Products on the website. The new web visualisation has several enhancements to improve interactive use, including a new download feature, overlapping segments to avoid slicing countries in two, as well as the possibility to zoom in and out of an image.

The Derived Products that are available are: Dust, Fog, Airmass, MPE, Fire, Volcanic Ash, Global Instability Index (GII) and Europe seen with the High Resolution Visible channel (E-View).

Two Metop RGB products are also available, based on AVHRR channels 1, 2 and 4. The Orbitview is a composition made by the concatenation of subsequential images. The EPSFlight displays two AVHRR PDUs with orbit information attached.

New tornado watch just issued by the SPC:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
345 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2008

PASCAGOULA TO SW PASS MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
PASCAGOULA TO SW PASS MISSISSIPPI RIVER 20-60 NM OUT-
SW PASS MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM-
SW PASS MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO ATCHAFALAYA RIVER 20-60 NM OUT-AMITE-
ASCENSION-ASSUMPTION-EAST BATON ROUGE-EAST FELICIANA-HANCOCK-
HARRISON-IBERVILLE-JACKSON-LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS-
LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-
LOWER ST BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-ORLEANS-PEARL RIVER-PIKE-
POINTE COUPEE-ST CHARLES-ST HELENA-ST JAMES-ST JOHN THE BAPTIST-
ST TAMMANY-TANGIPAHOA-UPPER JEFFERSON-UPPER LAFOURCHE-
UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-WALTHALL-
WASHINGTON-WEST BATON ROUGE-WEST FELICIANA-WILKINSON-
345 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2008

...A POWERFUL EARLY MARCH WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES...IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY.
WIND PROFILES...INSTABILITY...AND THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS STORM
WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL STORMS WITH A FEW
STRONG TORNADOES...HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MONDAY. MOREOVER...A SQUALL LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED ALONG
THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

STRONG WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS MAY START TO IMPACT COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MILES AN HOUR WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MILES AN HOUR MONDAY WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI.

AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. IN ADDITION...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MILES AN
HOUR OVER LAND AN HOUR...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...
WILL OCCUR TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...GALE WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES
WILL MAY BE ISSUED FOR PART OR ALL OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

RESIDENTS AND MARINERS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS ON THIS DEVELOPING
WEATHER SYSTEM ON MONDAY.
Well I am ready to deal with a bit of rough weather inorder to get some RAIN! SRQ needs rain. We are so dry my backyard looks like a dust bowl, and I so want our pastures, and dried up water holes to get replenished. I am hoping this front will bring the waves all surfers are anticipating, but mostly I know we need rain. Depending on you all to keep me updated, so if I have to do any extra prep work to keep the horses safe I'll have plenty of time.
Dang, even if we don't get the severe weather here in Louisiana, it is bound to be windy. I'd say minimal tropical storm force gusts can't be ruled out even as far inland as I am (Prairieville). One heck of a storm coming. Wouldn't be surprised to see us under a Wind Advisory soon, Pat.
dog walking bbl
Uh-oh... Take a look at this... when the NWS talks like this (we all know what happened on February 5)...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
835 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2008

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
INCLUDING TORNADOES...

.DISCUSSION...THINGS STILL ON TRACK FOR MON AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
LOOK VERY OMINOUS! NEW 00Z NAM HAS ARRIVED AND IS NEARLY IDENTICAL
TO THE PREV RUNS ON TIMING AND CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. IF ANY
THING...IT IS A TAD STRONGER AS THE SFC LOW IS DEEPER...THUS MAKING
THE LLJ A TAD STRONGER. I`M NOT SURPRISED THE SFC LOW IS A BIT
DEEPER AND FULLY EXPECT THE 00Z GFS TO FOLLOW SUIT. THIS IS TOO MUCH
OF A POWER HOUSE SYSTEM TO KEEP PRESSURE >1006-1009MB. I CAN EVEN
SEE PRESSURE GET LOWER THAN WHAT THE NAM/EURO ARE ADVERTISING WITH
VALUES CLOSER TO 1000MB ACROSS THE CWA.

I`M BECOMING VERY CONCERNED ABOUT THE 21-00Z WINDOW AS THE NAM/GFS
ALL INDICATE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION. YOU CAN VISUALIZE THINGS BETTER
WITH THE NAM B/C OF THE 21Z TIME STEP. THE MAIN THING IS THEY BOTH
INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN SQUALL
LINE/FRONT AND MAY ACTUALLY BECOME A LARGE FAMILY OF SUPERCELLS THAT
RAPIDLY TRACK NE INTO/ACROSS THE CWA. I DID A LOCAL SVR WX CHECKLIST
FOR MLU AT 21 USING GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AND GOT WHAT AMOUNTS TO THE
HIGHEST RANKING (EXTREME) WHICH IS RARE TO ACHIEVE (FEB 5 2008 ALSO
HIT IT)
WHICH HISTORICALLY SUPPORTS A SIG RISK OF A HIGH END EVENT
WITH SIG TYPE TORNADOES
. WHAT ALSO GETS ME CONCERNED IS WHERE THE
STORMS INITIATE...SW TO CENTRAL LA. THEY THEN WILL QUICKLY TRACK
ALMOST NNE INTO OUR W/SW CWA. THIS GIVES ANY SUPERCELL TIME TO
MATURE AND BECOME LONG LIVED. THOSE ARE THE WORST AS FEB 5 HAS
SHOWN. I CAN REALLY SEE A CORRIDOR ALONG THE TRACE AND ABOUT 50
MILES EITHER SIDE OF THAT BEING EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR SIG
TORNADOES
BETWEEN 4-9 PM. MON HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A HISTORIC
TYPE SVR WX DAY AND ALL NEED TO BE WX CONSCIOUS.
We're finally getting some substantial rain from the front that has been lingering the last 3-4 days. Sounds more like late May than early March lol. I guess this means that stalled-out boundary is finally on the move, trailing its parent low out to sea. . .
220. M1HS
Hi. I wonder if that S. Atlantic storm still has potential to become a SS>
Hmmm . . . looks like this week is going to be a bumpy ride . . .
STL, reading that kinda scared me. And I'm not usually frightened by weather, no matter how extreme.

I definitely hope no significant tornadoes occur, but it's very likely they will somewhere.
Wow! Thunder! First I've heard in months.
The models wont get a good read on the 2nd storm until the first one gets out of the way. If the Atlantic ridge is so weak, why is storm #1 taking a NNE track west of the Appalachians? This path will take it north too quickly to push the trailing front out of the area. Storm #2 will (as all are here) be an all or nothing deal. We either get flooding or nothing in S.FL.
Line of storms in Texas is looking bad. Looks like a few tornadoes could be in there.

Ok thats a bit disturbing : pressures in the gulf are running low ALREADY and the front is still a distance away.

Note the Graph.


Do my eyes deceive me or is that a low pressure center on the Gulf coast of Texas???


Disturbing:

Corpus Christi, Texas (Airport)

Pressure: 29.69 in / 1005 hPa (Falling)



Thats way low.
MUCAPE is very ominous in the most threatened region for tomorrow!(click on thermo fields then MUCAPE) Readings of 2000-3000 J/kg!

I don't like the looks of this. The line in Texas isn't dying out. Its strengthening at 1 20 am.
Wouldn't be surprised to see some strong winds with that cell by Dallas.

If this line can hold together, it looks like I'll be getting some severe weather today.
The line seems to have weakened considerably. It should built back up though, what with MUCAPE values in excess of 2000 J/KG.
Morning,

Morning guys.

It's actually cold outside (for Nassau, Bahamas) this morning. Looks like 456 was correct in characterizing the frontal boundary as just that, and not as a surface trough as was analysed yesterday.
Morning Weather 456 - you are really rockin' these days, thanks for the picture - post 231 - helps me to understand the technical reports better!

StormW morning to you too! Looks like the weather will be interesting this week - you know I'll be checking in.
233. BahaHurican 7:56 AM AST on March 03, 2008
Morning guys.

It's actually cold outside (for Nassau, Bahamas) this morning. Looks like 456 was correct in characterizing the frontal boundary as just that, and not as a surface trough as was analysed yesterday.


Morning, yeah.....and in addition to that, winds clearly veered from southwest to north-northwest in Bermuda and during the passage rain fell followed by a sudden increase in sustain winds. The obs from Bermuda clearly supports the passage of a front.
Morning Weather 456 - you are really rockin' these days, thanks for the picture - post 231 - helps me to understand the technical reports better!

StormW morning to you too! Looks like the weather will be interesting this week - you know I'll be checking in. Thanks for ALL weather warning - have alerted non-weather-aware friends in those areas this AM
237. surfmom 9:10 AM AST on March 03, 2008
Morning Weather 456 - you are really rockin' these days, thanks for the picture - post 231 - helps me to understand the technical reports better!


ur welcome and no problem
Good morning all! Been getting drenched with some much needed rainfall here in Cooper City. Looks like there is some training occuring in the Southern Broward county.

I'll be in and out all day. Going to take a look at the latest models and see what they're up to now.

Any thoughts regarding Friday and Saturday here in South Florida? I agree with your ideas Ivansrvivr. It has me worried for a flooding event, but hopefully Lake Okeechobee gets the most rain.
Taking a look at the latest models, it appears that they don't have any handle on the second system as of this time. There is no agreement in the models which makes me worried also. It makes forecasting this system tougher.

While I was looking at the models, they all seem to agree on a well-defined surface low developing in the Central Atlantic within the next few days. I'll be watching this area.
North Central Florida has two more rainy days on our weekly forecast. I know the humidity has been a little low, but the dried out lakes have made a shallow return, detention ponds are fuller than they have been all year, thing are looking good.
So why do they keep putting out fire weather warnings in the rain? We had a sunny dry weekend and finally my county doesn't have a sever warning over it.
CC, the models won't get a handle on storm#2 until storm#1 gets out of the picture.
CC, the NAO's tilt is the key to storm #2, if it continues to go more neg. #2 becomes bigger deal. If NAO goes back pos., 2nd storm will be non-event.
Agreed Ivansrvivr. As is customary with the weather, we will have to hope for the best and prepare for the worst since there is such a high degree of uncertainty in the forecast.
Just completed my forecast for Southern Florida on my site. Will publish my forecast discussion later on, but have included possible severe storms in the forecast for Friday and Saturday with high rain chances for both days. Just hoping the heavy rains sit over Lake Okeechobee over the next week. But, all in all, it seems like this is great news with tropical moisture coming much earlier than usual over the region bringing early spring rains.
The CPC 6-10 day precip forecast is good indicator when the 3 day forecast models are blinded by current storm. When it's too early for the specific models, look at the big picture forecast. The CPC is leaning towards a very wet pattern for the Central and southern Peninsula over the next 10 days.
Thanks Storm,Wednesday storm is g oing to be a wet one and windy.
CC, with winter systems so infrequent here, it is natural for the models to have a hard time picking up systems like storm#2
251. IKE
It's already starting...

" Tornado Warning

Statement as of 8:09 AM CST on March 03, 2008

The National Weather Service in Shreveport has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Bowie County in northeast Texas...
this includes the cities of... Wake Village... Texarkana... New
Boston...
southern Little River County in southwest Arkansas...
this includes the city of Ashdown...

* until 915 am CST

* at 807 am CST... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado near New
Boston... moving northeast at 25 mph.

* The tornado will be near...
New Boston by 820 am CST...
Hooks by 835 am CST...
Ogden by 915 am CST...

The safest place to be during a tornado is in a basement. Get under a
workbench or other piece of sturdy furniture. If no basement is
available... seek shelter on the lowest floor of the building in an
interior hallway or room such as a closet. Use blankets or pillows to
cover your body and always stay away from windows.

If in Mobile homes or vehicles... evacuate them and get inside a
substantial shelter. If no shelter is available... lie flat in the
nearest ditch or other low spot and cover your head with your hands.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 PM CST Monday
afternoon for southwestern Arkansas and northwestern Louisiana and
northeastern Texas."
By the looks of that line of storms so early in the morning,its only going to get worse,Arkansas and Louisianna,better prepare.
Wow a week of EXCITING weather perhaps! More fun watching this unfold then TV Frankly, I am praying for rain - for several reasons,1. to change my yard from a dust bowl back to a tropical garden and get my rain barrels filled, 2. to replenish water holes and pasture land out east of I75 and remove the "tinderbox" situation we have out there now 3. get a rain day off from work and lastly I sure love to ride some waves and take a break from riding horses.

I am wishing for Sarasota,FL to get a good soaking. Off to work, see you all in the PM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
421 AM EST MON MAR 3 2008

500 MB CHART AT 00 UTC SHOWED A DEEP POSITIVELY TILTED TROF JUST PREPARING TO EXIT THE ROCKIES AND MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. A
CLOSED LOW OF 546 DM IS ANALYZED JUST SOUTH OF GRAND JUNCTION CO. 500 MB TEMPS ARE QUITE COLD WITH THIS FEATURE...AS COLD AS -34C. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS UPPER TROF AND CLOSED LOW IS MOVING SSE INTO CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. THE FUTURE MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE KEY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AND MAINTENANCE OF EXPECTED SEVERE WEATHER IN THE
SOUTHEAST.


Good Morning Folks.........

Things are relatively quiet in the Gulf/SE right now, but, as the closed low drops down into Texas from New Mexico later today, we'll have to wait and see how the potential for severe weather develops as the front interacts with the warm flow and moisture coming up from the Gulf..........It will be interesting later this evening and into tommorow and interests around the Gulf will need to keep a close eye on their NOAA products and local weather alerts...................

See Yall Later this evening as the situation unfolds..........
Link

PUCKER TIME!
Getting pretty warm and humid in Florida Panhandle and that low swinging down into Texas from NM is looking better organized this morning........Looks like a pretty warm and unstable air mass will be meeting up with the front later today/this evening as the system approches South TX/LA/MISS/AL.......How is the weather looking right now (in terms of heat and moisture) from some of our friends in those parts?.............
Dupage Severe Warnings page..Link

GOEs IR Loop of the GOM Link

At least it looks like the sytem is moving down at pretty fast clip (the potentially damaging straight line winds) so it will not (Thank God) be an extended event, but, the tornado potential seems to be on target right now..............
Nice low level convergence and the resulting lightning, of course:

doesn't feel humid in Orlando with dewpoints in the 50's