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Winter Olympics forecast: near-record warmth

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:28 PM GMT on February 15, 2010

Under sunny skies and warm southwest winds the temperature in Vancouver, British Columbia climbed to 54°F (12.4°C) yesterday, just missing the record of 12.9°C (55°F) for the date, set in 1991 (records in Vancouver go back to 1937). That was marvelous weather for all the joggers that were out in t-shirts and shorts in Vancouver yesterday, but is lousy weather if you're trying to hold a Winter Olympics. The men's downhill was postponed yesterday and rescheduled for today, because of rain and bad snow. The women's combined, originally scheduled to run Saturday, has been postponed until Thursday. The mountain has been getting snow at the top, a mix of snow and rain along the middle section, and rain at the bottom, making for very difficult skiing conditions. Practice runs have been mostly been canceled. In West Vancouver, where the moguls competition was held yesterday, snow had to be trucked and helicoptered in because there wasn't enough on the ground. The snow-making machines weren't any help, because it was too warm to make snow. Too bad Philadelphia or Washington D.C. didn't make a bid for the Winter Olympics! It's an upside-down winter when Canada has trouble getting snow, and Washington D.C. gets five feet.

As we can see from a plot of the temperature departure from average for the month of January (Figure 1), most of Canada has seen very unusual warmth, with temperatures over 5°C (9°F) covering large swathes of the country.


Figure 1. Departure of January temperature from average for the strong to moderate strength El Niño year of 2010 (left), and a composite of the last five years that had a moderate to strong El Niño (right). Note that typically, an El Niño event brings much warmer than average temperatures to Vancouver, and cooler than average conditions to Florida. This year has seen an extreme amplification of this pattern. The impact of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is evident over eastern Canada and Greenland, where exceptionally warm temperatures were recorded. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Why all the warmth in Vancouver? El Niño partly to blame
So, what's going on? The average high temperature in Vancouver this time of year is typically 8°C (46°F). Vancouver has seen above-average temperatures every day this month, and tied one daily record so far. This unusual February warmth follows a record warm month of January, which averaged 3°C (5.4°F) above average, beating the previous record set in 2006 by a pretty significant margin, 0.9°C (1.6°F). Nearby Seattle, Washington had its warmest January in 120 years of record keeping, and both Oregon and Washington recorded their 4th warmest January. As we can see from a plot of the temperature departure from average for the month of January (Figure 1), most of Canada saw very unusual warmth, with temperature anomalies over 5°C (9°F) covering large swathes of the country. Record warm January temperatures were observed not only over British Columbia, but also over Manitoba and over much of Quebec, where half of the province's twelve largest cities experienced their warmest or second warmest January on record. Unusual Canadian warmth is to be expected during a moderate to strong El Niño episode, which is what we've had this winter in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. The pattern we've seen during the previous five moderate to strong El Niños dating back to 1987 (Figure 1, right) shows this trend, and also the trend towards colder than average conditions in Florida. However, the pattern for January 2010 shows an extreme amplification of this El Niño pattern. We had record warmth over much of Canada, and Florida got socked with its 10th coldest January on record. The extreme amplification of the January temperature pattern was due in part to the influence of the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation, a natural wind pattern over the North Atlantic measured by the difference in pressure between Iceland and ocean areas to the south. That difference in pressure was remarkably small in the first half of January, leading to the weakest Arctic Oscillation pattern in 60 years of record keeping. This allowed cold air to spill southwards into Florida, and helped bring very warm temperatures to Greenland and Eastern Canada. El Niño, combined with the Arctic Oscillation, all superimposed upon exceptionally warm global temperatures, is probably the best explanation for the record January warmth in Canada. Globally, January 2010 was the 4th warmest January on record, with global ocean temperatures the 2nd warmest on record, according to NOAA.

The forecast: near-record warmth for Vancouver
The forecast for Vancouver for the remainder of the week calls for temperatures above 10°C (50°F) each day. Today's forecast high of 10°C (50°F) will approach the record high for the date of 12.6°C (55°F). The long range forecast through the remainder of the Winter Olympics promises continued near-record warmth, as the jet stream is projected to stay in its current El Niño-type pattern. In this configuration, a strong ridge of high pressure stays anchored over the Pacific coast, allowing plenty of warm air from the southwest into British Columbia. Unfortunately for the winter games, I expect that Vancouver will end up experiencing its 1st or 2nd warmest February on record.

No major snowstorms in sight
Today's snowstorm for the mid-Atlantic has shifted northwards, meaning the that the maximum 4 - 8 inches of snow from this storm will pass north of snow-weary Philadelphia, Washington D.C., and Baltimore. The computer models are showing that this will be the last significant snow storm to affect the eastern half of the U.S. for at least a week, and residents of the Mid-Atlantic can look forward to a slow but steady melting of their huge piles of snow. This is exactly what is needed to avoid a serious flooding situation--a rapid thaw or large rainstorm would have been a major problem.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Wednesday at the latest. I did an interview with the Washington Post weather blog by the "Capital Weather Gang", for those interested.

Jeff Masters
2010 Winter Olympic Torch Relay
2010 Winter Olympic Torch Relay
The Olympic Torch Relay departing Mackin Park in Coquitlam, BC. Crowds lined the streets and braved the Vancouver rain to cheer on the torchbearers as they continued on to the city of Burnaby. Just one more day before the Olympic Cauldron will be lit in Vancouver on February 12, 2010.
Ballet Of Light
Ballet Of Light
The 'Ballet Of Light', formally known as artist Rafael Lozano-Hemmer's art project Vectorial Elevation, consists of 20 robotically controlled, 10,000-watt Zenon lights that have been installed at Vanier Park and Sunset Beach in Vancouver. Beginning on February 5, they will be lighting the sky over English Bay every night until dawn, right up to the last day of the 2010 Winter Olympics on February 28. The pattern of the lights changes every 10 seconds in response to geometric designs submitted from the public via the Internet. It is quite a sight but works best with low clouds like this evening. View with the Inukshuk at the southern end of English Bay Beach.

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

If its a warmer than average season its NOT GW if its a colder than average season its NOT GW
Thanks Doc!
Good Morning, Lake Erie is frozen over.

Link
No major snowstorms in sight
Today's snowstorm for the mid-Atlantic has shifted northwards, meaning the that the maximum 4 - 8 inches of snow from this storm will pass north of snow-weary Philadelphia, Washington D.C., and Baltimore. The computer models are showing that this will be the last significant snow storm to affect the eastern half of the U.S. for at least a week, and residents of the Mid-Atlantic can look forward to a slow but steady melting of their huge piles of snow. This is exactly what is needed to avoid a serious flooding situation--a rapid thaw or large rainstorm would have been a major problem.


And for this we give thanks...!
Re-Post from previous blog:

369. Grothar 2:58 PM GMT on February 15, 2010

Most of you know me on the blog. I have never got into the argument of AGW either pro or con. Therefore, I would find it difficult to believe anyone could know my full position on subject. However, I noticed a comment this morning in which my name was mentioned. As many of you know, I was born in the U.S. of American Parents. In the U.S. since the 1800's. I was educated in Europe, residing mostly in the Scandinavian countries and Germany, but many other countries as well (including Greenland).

There reference this morning was to my "denial" of conditions in Greenland when the early Viking settlers lived there. If some of you may not realize, the schools in the Scandinavia countries often teach the Old Norse languages and we must read the full history of our countries,even to the point of learning the old runic alpabet. I am quite well aware of the large Viking settlements which were in Greenland from approximately 800-1200 A.D. The climate was much warmer than it is today, especially along the southwestern coast. There was farming, grazing, cattle raising and abundant forests along the coastal area. The settlements may have supported population well over 10,000 inhabitans. I have visited many of the sites of the old villages.

The clarification I attempeted to make to one of the bloggers a while back, was that the ice sheets were still relatively the same at that time as they are today. The entire island of Greenland was not a lush paradise. Even at that time, the winters were much colder in Greenland than they were in Iceland and Norway. The question which still remains, was why the settlements were abandoned. It is known that after 1300 A.D. The climate became much colder and they settlers could not apapt.

When I see derogatory remarks made about our host, Dr. Masters, it is upsetting in the fact that it is now no longer a lack of civility which prevails, but total lack of respect for anyone's opinions. This is directed to both sides of the argument. If they disagree that much, let them start their own blog. If I ever want to clarify something, I normally e-mail the person as not to cause embarrassment or create another argument. I have never berated anyone on this blog or resorted to name-calling. I would expect others to behave the same, but obviously that is behavior for which many on this blog are incapabable.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Re-Post from previous blog:

369. Grothar 2:58 PM GMT on February 15, 2010

Most of you know me on the blog. I have never got into the argument of AGW either pro or con. Therefore, I would find it difficult to believe anyone could know my full position on subject. However, I noticed a comment this morning in which my name was mentioned. As many of you know, I was born in the U.S. of American Parents. In the U.S. since the 1800's. I was educated in Europe, residing mostly in the Scandinavian countries and Germany, but many other countries as well (including Greenland).

There reference this morning was to my "denial" of conditions in Greenland when the early Viking settlers lived there. If some of you may not realize, the schools in the Scandinavia countries often teach the Old Norse languages and we must read the full history of our countries,even to the point of learning the old runic alpabet. I am quite well aware of the large Viking settlements which were in Greenland from approximately 800-1200 A.D. The climate was much warmer than it is today, especially along the southwestern coast. There was farming, grazing, cattle raising and abundant forests along the coastal area. The settlements may have supported population well over 10,000 inhabitans. I have visited many of the sites of the old villages.

The clarification I attempeted to make to one of the bloggers a while back, was that the ice sheets were still relatively the same at that time as they are today. The entire island of Greenland was not a lush paradise. Even at that time, the winters were much colder in Greenland than they were in Iceland and Norway. The question which still remains, was why the settlements were abandoned. It is known that after 1300 A.D. The climate became much colder and they settlers could not apapt.

When I see derogatory remarks made about our host, Dr. Masters, it is upsetting in the fact that it is now no longer a lack of civility which prevails, but total lack of respect for anyone's opinions. This is directed to both sides of the argument. If they disagree that much, let them start their own blog. If I ever want to clarify something, I normally e-mail the person as not to cause embarrassment or create another argument. I have never berated anyone on this blog or resorted to name-calling. I would expect others to behave the same, but obviously that is behavior for which many on this blog are incapabable.

I fully agree, Grothar. Too many people post on this blog spewing gibberish and trying to act like they know everything, and generally refuse to be civil and respectful. Like you, I make a point not to sink to their level, and try my best to be open-minded, civil, and respectful.

So far, what I have done is added quite a few people to my "list of un-awesome" (including one person whose blog I used to follow regularly), and I routinely report posts by people who are being childish or generally not being civil. It is a shame that the blog has degenerated to petty name calling and senseless distortion of facts (on BOTH sides). I wish there was a way admin could really fix the issue, but to fix it, they either cross the line into censorship, or strongly limit participation in the blog.
...Re-Thank from previous blog :)

Mr. Grothar.. thank you sir!
I agree with Grothar one hundred percent; amongst civilized people there are naturally differences in opinion. The mark of a mature person is that they accept the fact that someone disagrees with their opinion and moves on.

I find the people that come here, to Dr. Masters blog, and disrespect him on his own blog because he doesn't agree with their opinions disgusting and beneath reproach; they are not worth the time it takes to call them out and I simply ignore them...I recommend that action to the rest of us adults here that understand how to have a civilized discourse.

Thank you, Dr. Masters, for giving us this place to discuss the various subjects aligned with the weather and climate and I apologize to you for my fellow bloggers who haven't got the decency to treat you with the respect you're due...
Nature Geoscience, published online 14 February 2010; doi: 10.1038/ngeo765
Rapid submarine melting of the calving faces of West Greenland glaciers
Eric Rignot* (University of California, Earth System Science, Irvine, CA 92617, U.S.A., and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA 91109, U.S.A.), Michele Koppes (University of British Columbia, Department of Geography, Vancouver, British Columbia, V6T 1Z2, Canada) and Isabella Velicogna (University of California, Earth System Science, Irvine, CA 92617, U.S.A., and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA 91109, U.S.A.)

Abstract

Widespread glacier acceleration has been observed in Greenland in the past few years1, 2, 3, 4 associated with the thinning of the lower reaches of the glaciers as they terminate in the ocean5, 6, 7. These glaciers thin both at the surface, from warm air temperatures, and along their submerged faces in contact with warm ocean waters8. Little is known about the rates of submarine melting9, 10, 11 and how they may affect glacier dynamics. Here we present measurements of ocean currents, temperature and salinity near the calving fronts of the Eqip Sermia, Kangilerngata Sermia, Sermeq Kujatdleq and Sermeq Avangnardleq glaciers in central West Greenland, as well as ice-front bathymetry and geographical positions. We calculate water-mass and heat budgets that reveal summer submarine melt rates ranging from 0.7±0.2 to 3.9±0.8 m d−1. These rates of submarine melting are two orders of magnitude larger than surface melt rates, but comparable to rates of iceberg discharge. We conclude that ocean waters melt a considerable, but highly variable, fraction of the calving fronts of glaciers before they disintegrate into icebergs, and suggest that submarine melting must have a profound influence on grounding-line stability and ice-flow dynamics.

*Correspondence e-mail: erignot@uci.edu

Link to abstract: http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/abs/ngeo765.html
Well said Grothar.... And thank you AwakeInMaryland for reposting that.... There are a few people on this blog that do need to read that and maybe even 2 or 3 times so they get it....

Thanks Dr Masters for the update....

Taco :0)
Quoting Floodman:
I agree with Grothar one hundred percent; amongst civilized people there are naturally differences in opinion. The mark of a mature person is that they accept the fact that someone disagrees with their opinion and moves on.

I find the people that come here, to Dr. Masters blog, and disrespect him on his own blog because he doesn't agree with their opinions disgusting and beneath reproach; they are not worth the time it takes to call them out and I simply ignore them...I recommend that action to the rest of us adults here that understand how to have a civilized discourse.

Thank you, Dr. Masters, for giving us this place to discuss the various subjects aligned with the weather and climate and I apologize to you for my fellow bloggers who haven't got the decency to treat you with the respect you're due...

Amen.

The ignore button is a fantastic thing. Makes comments that are very disrespectful go "poof".

When you combine a large audience (like Dr. M's blog), and the relative anonymity of the internet, the real person comes out. Some of us really are mature, responsible adults (just look at everything Portlight has done). Some of us.. not so much (just look at any GW/CC blog). Its a shame, really.
Quoting doabarrelroll:
If its a warmer than average season its NOT GW if its a colder than average season its NOT GW


What if it's the warmest January on record, globally?

That's what we have, per Dr. Roy Spencer's satellite data.
Lundi Gras is today,..tomorrow is Fat Tuesday or Mardi Gras.

Curling Budweiser is on my to do list tomorrow.

But its still not a Winter Olympic Event sadly.

Crowds pack the streets to see Drew Brees reign as Mardi Gras' King of Bacchus

NOVA is reairing it's episode "Extreme Ice" tomorrow on your local PBS station: Link
Quoting Patrap:
BR>

Lundi Gras is today,..tomorrow is Fat Tuesday or Mardi Gras.

Curling Budweiser is on my to do list tomorrow.

But its still not a Winter Olympic Event sadly.

Crowds pack the streets to see Drew Brees reign as Mardi Gras' King of Bacchus



I thought 12 ounce curls were a summer event...:)
Quoting Patrap:
Lundi Gras is today,..tomorrow is Fat Tuesday or Mardi Gras.

Curling Budweiser is on my to do list tomorrow.

But its still not a Winter Olympic Event sadly.

Crowds pack the streets to see Drew Brees reign as Mardi Gras' King of Bacchus



I here Ya Pat I myself will be curlin a Moutain Dew and enjoying "Fat-Tuesday"

so "Let The Good Times Roll"

Taco :0)
Quoting FatPenguin:


What if it's the warmest January on record, globally?

That's what we have, per Dr. Roy Spencer's satellite data.

Not much of a record, unfortunately...
Quoting indianrivguy:


I thought 12 ounce curls were a summer event...:)


Not during "Mardi-Gras".... It started yesterday with Joe Cain Day here in Mobile and want stop untill midnite tomorrow.... hehehe

Taco :0)
Been kinda neglecting my Blogging duties in lieu of chasing the Lombardi Trophy around town during various Parades.


Snow last Thursday in McComb,Miss was awesome stuff too.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
NOVA is reairing it's episode "Extreme Ice" tomorrow on your local PBS station: Link


Thank's Dr.......Speaking of PBS (and global warming issues) the new 2010 snow on Cave Diving is very interesting. The dives are in the blue holes on the Bahamas and some very interesting studies being done on the correlation between massive SAL outbreaks and rapid warming issues as measured in the SAL "layers" found in some of the stalagmite-stalagtite core samples from the caves. If you believe what the UM scientists are implying in the show, a huge Saharan Drought/SAL Outbreak can be historically correlated to a pretty rapid global warming/sea level elevation episode.
Quoting Patrap:
Lundi Gras is today,..tomorrow is Fat Tuesday or Mardi Gras.

Curling Budweiser is on my to do list tomorrow.

But its still not a Winter Olympic Event sadly.

Crowds pack the streets to see Drew Brees reign as Mardi Gras' King of Bacchus


Bud!?!

What about Abita, Dixie, or Heiner Brau?
Clarification to an earlier clarification. In an earlier blog, I mentioned a personal remark about me, which may have been a light chide rather than a personal attack. In the same blog I mentioned about derogatory remarks made about Dr. Masters. This remark was in no way related to the blogger who made the comment about me. It was in reference to a number of other blogger's comments. I apologize if there may have been an inference by anyone that it was directed towards them. Perfect example why no one should write a response when angered. I learned by my own example. (Mea culpa..transaltion "My bad"

Now, on a lighter note. We are expecting about 10 inches of snow here in PA. Cannot wait to get back to sunny, warm Florida.
Quoting Floodman:
I agree with Grothar one hundred percent; amongst civilized people there are naturally differences in opinion. The mark of a mature person is that they accept the fact that someone disagrees with their opinion and moves on.

I find the people that come here, to Dr. Masters blog, and disrespect him on his own blog because he doesn't agree with their opinions disgusting and beneath reproach; they are not worth the time it takes to call them out and I simply ignore them...I recommend that action to the rest of us adults here that understand how to have a civilized discourse.

Thank you, Dr. Masters, for giving us this place to discuss the various subjects aligned with the weather and climate and I apologize to you for my fellow bloggers who haven't got the decency to treat you with the respect you're due...
The science associated with climatology is very complex. Some differences in opinion are inevitable. Showing respect for others thoughts, interests, and especially Dr. Masters blog should be a no brainer. Anyone typing to much groundless bull will never be taken seriously anyway. Hope your back is good. My Dad made it through his surgery.:)
Greetings and good morning everyone. I am posting the story below as I was quite shocked by the revelations by Prof. Jones. I know there are those on this board who will immediately dismiss the article by saying something like “it comes from a denier news source” or “provide references NOW” or some like nonsense. These are statements by Prof. Jones himself…no other “source” needed.

This is quite scary, really. Entire nations have (or will attempt to) put in place policies which will cost nations, corporations, and individuals (who will most likely be the most hurt by such policies) a great deal of both currency and resources, even at a time when the world’s economy as a whole is in serious trouble.

To make my position clear, let me state the following: I am a believer in “Climate Change.” After all, the climate has been changing since long before man’s first footprints were made, so to speak. I am a believer in the Scientific Method, provided bias and corruption are excluded. The “scandals” have certainly biased me towards “doubting” the science, as it has most certainly been corrupted. I do have an open mind, and will continue to do so.

Why the need to manipulate data? This is what concerns me the most. Even the most respected scientists will admit that we have not broken the code on climate processes. When the models did not match the reality, we point out that the model did not account for this or that variable. Yet we are ready to propose costly solutions when we do not yet have the “big picture.”

One last statement: I fully support embracing ‘green’ technologies, and freely admit that corporate greed has made us less than good stewards of the environment. We have a long way to go for sure. Yet, for all the hype, I do not see a single government investing in making ‘green’ technologies more affordable, to the extent that the masses will spend their hard earned dollars for readily. Also, I will say that no one, and I repeat, no one will chase me off the board by attacking my position. This was done before, and quite frankly, after thinking about it awhile, I have come to recognize such practices (just silence them…they will go away). So, feel free to attack all you want. I say, we are just not there yet. We will be someday, I am sure. Taking such a small snapshoot of the history of the planet and attempting to extrapolate it into something on the scale we see today, well, I won’t go there. I have a feeling, in the end, “Mother Nature” will prove to be much more difficult to explain then we can ever imagine.

Climategate U-turn as scientist at centre of row admits: There has been no global warming since 1995

By Jonathan Petre
Last updated at 5:12 PM on 14th February 2010

Comments (731)
Add to My Stories


-Data for vital 'hockey stick graph' has gone missing
-There has been no global warming since 1995
-Warming periods have happened before - but NOT due to man-made changes

The academic at the centre of the ‘Climategate’ affair, whose raw data is crucial to the theory of climate change, has admitted that he has trouble ‘keeping track’ of the information.

Colleagues say that the reason Professor Phil Jones has refused Freedom of Information requests is that he may have actually lost the relevant papers.

Professor Jones told the BBC yesterday there was truth in the observations of colleagues that he lacked organisational skills, that his office was swamped with piles of paper and that his record keeping is ‘not as good as it should be’.

The data is crucial to the famous ‘hockey stick graph’ used by climate change advocates to support the theory.

Professor Jones also conceded the possibility that the world was warmer in medieval times than now – suggesting global warming may not be a man-made phenomenon.

And he said that for the past 15 years there has been no ‘statistically significant’ warming.

The admissions will be seized on by sceptics as fresh evidence that there are serious flaws at the heart of the science of climate change and the orthodoxy that recent rises in temperature are largely man-made.

Professor Jones has been in the spotlight since he stepped down as director of the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit after the leaking of emails that sceptics claim show scientists were manipulating data.

The raw data, collected from hundreds of weather stations around the world and analysed by his unit, has been used for years to bolster efforts by the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to press governments to cut carbon dioxide emissions.

More...
MAIL ON SUNDAY COMMENT: The professor's amazing climate change retreat

Following the leak of the emails, Professor Jones has been accused of ‘scientific fraud’ for allegedly deliberately suppressing information and refusing to share vital data with critics.

Discussing the interview, the BBC’s environmental analyst Roger Harrabin said he had spoken to colleagues of Professor Jones who had told him that his strengths included integrity and doggedness but not record-keeping and office tidying.

Mr Harrabin, who conducted the interview for the BBC’s website, said the professor had been collating tens of thousands of pieces of data from around the world to produce a coherent record of temperature change.

That material has been used to produce the ‘hockey stick graph’ which is relatively flat for centuries before rising steeply in recent decades.

According to Mr Harrabin, colleagues of Professor Jones said ‘his office is piled high with paper, fragments from over the years, tens of thousands of pieces of paper, and they suspect what happened was he took in the raw data to a central database and then let the pieces of paper go because he never realised that 20 years later he would be held to account over them’.

Asked by Mr Harrabin about these issues, Professor Jones admitted the lack of organisation in the system had contributed to his reluctance to share data with critics, which he regretted.

But he denied he had cheated over the data or unfairly influenced the scientific process, and said he still believed recent temperature rises were predominantly man-made.

Asked about whether he lost track of data, Professor Jones said: ‘There is some truth in that. We do have a trail of where the weather stations have come from but it’s probably not as good as it should be.

‘There’s a continual updating of the dataset. Keeping track of everything is difficult. Some countries will do lots of checking on their data then issue improved data, so it can be very difficult. We have improved but we have to improve more.’

He also agreed that there had been two periods which experienced similar warming, from 1910 to 1940 and from 1975 to 1998, but said these could be explained by natural phenomena whereas more recent warming could not.


He further admitted that in the last 15 years there had been no ‘statistically significant’ warming, although he argued this was a blip rather than the long-term trend.

And he said that the debate over whether the world could have been even warmer than now during the medieval period, when there is evidence of high temperatures in northern countries, was far from settled.

Sceptics believe there is strong evidence that the world was warmer between about 800 and 1300 AD than now because of evidence of high temperatures in northern countries.

But climate change advocates have dismissed this as false or only applying to the northern part of the world.

Professor Jones departed from this consensus when he said: ‘There is much debate over whether the Medieval Warm Period was global in extent or not. The MWP is most clearly expressed in parts of North America, the North Atlantic and Europe and parts of Asia.

‘For it to be global in extent, the MWP would need to be seen clearly in more records from the tropical regions and the Southern hemisphere. There are very few palaeoclimatic records for these latter two regions.

‘Of course, if the MWP was shown to be global in extent and as warm or warmer than today, then obviously the late 20th Century warmth would not be unprecedented. On the other hand, if the MWP was global, but was less warm than today, then the current warmth would be unprecedented.’

Sceptics said this was the first time a senior scientist working with the IPCC had admitted to the possibility that the Medieval Warming Period could have been global, and therefore the world could have been hotter then than now.

Professor Jones criticised those who complained he had not shared his data with them, saying they could always collate their own from publicly available material in the US. And he said the climate had not cooled ‘until recently – and then barely at all. The trend is a warming trend’.

Mr Harrabin told Radio 4’s Today programme that, despite the controversies, there still appeared to be no fundamental flaws in the majority scientific view that climate change was largely man-made.

But Dr Benny Pieser, director of the sceptical Global Warming Policy Foundation, said Professor Jones’s ‘excuses’ for his failure to share data were hollow as he had shared it with colleagues and ‘mates’.

He said that until all the data was released, sceptics could not test it to see if it supported the conclusions claimed by climate change advocates.

He added that the professor’s concessions over medieval warming were ‘significant’ because they were his first public admission that the science was not settled.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1250872/Climategate-U-turn-Astonishment-scientist-centre-gl obal-warming-email-row-admits-data-organised.html?printingPage=true

Quoting Patrap:
Been kinda neglecting my Blogging duties in lieu of chasing the Lombardi Trophy around town during various Parades.


Snow last Thursday in McComb,Miss was awesome stuff too.


Blogging duties? When you have the Lombardi to chase? I think not...
Quoting Patrap:
Been kinda neglecting my Blogging duties in lieu of chasing the Lombardi Trophy around town during various Parades.
Snow last Thursday in McComb,Miss was awesome stuff too.

Totally understandable, and I think it's okay a lot of us are with you in spirit!
Quoting atmoaggie:

Bud!?! What about Abita, Dixie, or Heiner Brau?
1

I was hoping someone (else, besides me) would say that!
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Thank's Dr.......Speaking of PBS (and global warming issues) the new 2010 snow on Cave Diving is very interesting. The dives are in the blue holes on the Bahamas and some very interesting studies being done on the correlation between massive SAL outbreaks and rapid warming issues as measured in the SAL "layers" found in some of the stalagmite-stalagtite core samples from the caves. If you beleive what the UM scientists are implying in the show, a huge Saharan Drought/SAL Outburst can be hitorically correlated to a pretty rapid global warming/sea level elevation episode.


Ya I saw that show, it does make perfect scents, considering they stay untouched by oxygen, which preserves the bones, sediments, and chemicals present in the atmosphere.

They showed a tortoise shell with holes in it from the bottom a blue hole. They later found a crocodile skull not far from the tortoise shell. The put the crocodile teeth up to the tortoise shell and the holes matched the crocodile teeth, the tortoise fell in and the crocodile followed.

It was a very interesting show.
Grothar's post, yah, I agree.

Even before the post that he found offensive (and I can tell why) I did raise the Jones recant, not as a foe of the theory behind AGW but a friend.

The point is that this entire debate is out of control and the fundamental science is being drowned out by the various political sources.

The questioned I tried to raise is how do the real serious scientists come forth? Methinks Dr. Masters is doing a good job but there must be much more. Yes, heavy snow was already predicted as a consequence of AGW so why is this news?

I have read most of the Icelandic sagas (my wife is a medievalist) and while it wasn't exactly toasty in Greenland it was warmer during the medieval warm period. Jared Diamond in one of his books documents fairly well the inability of the Norse living in Greenland to adapt to the changing climatic situation.

Anyway, I discovered a Legionnaire's issue in the design of my solar storage tank today and I am sitting at home taking vacation rather going to work since mentioning the "L" word to wife had the predictable consequences.

Focus on efficiency, please. Lower your carbon footprint AND save money!
Quoting Grothar:
Cannot wait to get back to sunny, warm Florida.


Did you see the wind gusts measured the other day?

60 - 70 mph gusts, not by damage estimate, but directly measured. That 64 mph at Miami Beach is credible, I can say. Was a rather hairy couple of minutes...

http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/100212_rpts.html
Yeah EL Nino comes and we have the Winter Olympics, skiing on top of the mountain and bikini weather in Vancouver (or almost) Yes the weather has been bad but VANOC was smart enough to look at long term weather patterns last year and they knew this weather was a possibility so they prepared for it as best they could. I do not want to know how much they spent helecoptering in snow to Cypress mountain, we will be paying for that for years to come, but generally things have been going well. It is looking like the Mens downhill may be postponed again but that is the nice thing with the Olympics it is for 16 days just in case events need to be re-booked, there are alternate days they can run it on. And the nice thing with the warm weather in downtown Vancouver is that the indoor events like the speed skating yesterday were broadcast to a nearby park onto a jumbotron for people who couldn't afford to go. They get to watch for free if they don't mind being outside.

And Canada finally won our first gold medal on home soil. WHOOO HOOO GO CANADA GO.
Reply to Eagle101:

I am experiencing first hand the cost associated with ill-thought-out ways to address energy issues.

What is sad (and nobody seems to mention this) is that if we stop all the WASTING ENERGY that occurs, especially in this country, we can make a huge dent in starting to solve our carbon emissions problem.

And save money.

And actually do something to stimulate that economy that will HELP us all.

And reduce dependence upon foreign oil.

And help reduce our national debt (it is no coincidence that our national debt is about equal to our national balance of payments deficit).

This entire argument is silly.
Quoting EnergyMoron:
Reply to Eagle101:

I am experiencing first hand the cost associated with ill-thought-out ways to address energy issues.

What is sad (and nobody seems to mention this) is that if we stop all the WASTING ENERGY that occurs, especially in this country, we can make a huge dent in starting to solve our carbon emissions problem.

And save money.

And actually do something to stimulate that economy that will HELP us all.

And reduce dependence upon foreign oil.

And help reduce our national debt (it is no coincidence that our national debt is about equal to our national balance of payments deficit).

This entire argument is silly.


Greetings Energy;

I have come very close, during the last three years, to installing a whole-house Solar System, to include water heating. My incentive was three-fold: Reduce my families dependance on the grid; recieve a tax credit from the Feds, and my state (Florida) has an additional off-set, not to mention that estimated 25 year system pay-off (which just happens to coincide with the estimated 25 year life span of the cells!) Quite frankly, I am glad at this point that I did not. It seem's that many more here in Florida made the leap, only to find out that Florida's funds for reimbursement do not even come close to funding those who took risk, using there own funds. There are now literally thousands (you read that right) who are waiting on refunds. So, based on Florida's poor planning, many who were once considering this move now have zero incentive to proceed. Truly a shame. Take care, and have a great day.

I have not given up, and will continue to check system costs. There still may be solar in our future...I hope!

Very Respectfully,

Jon
Ha Ha I had to change back to my old avatar.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
No major snowstorms in sight
Today's snowstorm for the mid-Atlantic has shifted northwards, meaning the that the maximum 4 - 8 inches of snow from this storm will pass north of snow-weary Philadelphia, Washington D.C., and Baltimore. The computer models are showing that this will be the last significant snow storm to affect the eastern half of the U.S. for at least a week, and residents of the Mid-Atlantic can look forward to a slow but steady melting of their huge piles of snow. This is exactly what is needed to avoid a serious flooding situation--a rapid thaw or large rainstorm would have been a major problem.


And for this we give thanks...!
yes ya all had a enough its only fun for so long
Quoting hydrus:
The science associated with climatology is very complex. Some differences in opinion are inevitable. Showing respect for others thoughts, interests, and especially Dr. Masters blog should be a no brainer. Anyone typing to much groundless bull will never be taken seriously anyway. Hope your back is good. My Dad made it through his surgery.:)


The issue here is the mental and probably calendar age of thiose involved; add to that the general anonymity of the format and people tend to say things they wouldn't have the guts to say to your face...it's one of the strengths of the format, but also one of the weknesses and people tend to break the conventions because no one knows who they are...

I'm so glad to hear about your dad; hopefully he'll get through all the post-op happiness and be fine!
Eagle 101~ what is so shocking here? That his office was disorganized? He states AGW is happening. It's a confusing article, every 3rd sentence is what the sceptics think, he may have lost papers. A coworker says he has a messy desk..

This was amoung the "hacked" or maybe not so hacked CRU emails.


Quoting Floodman:


The issue here is the mental and probably calendar age of thiose involved; add to that the general anonymity of the format and people tend to say things they wouldn't have the guts to say to your face...it's one of the strengths of the format, but also one of the weknesses and people tend to break the conventions because no one knows who they are...

I'm so glad to hear about your dad; hopefully he'll get through all the post-op happiness and be fine!


Great points Floodman. For myself, I will not post something here I would not say to someone face-to-face. I am also not affraid to use my real name when signing my posts. I think that also goes along way to imparting sincerity.

Hydrus: Not sure familure with your fathers medical problems, but glad to hear he is doing ok. My families thoughts and prayers are with you and yours.
39. RMCF
Quoting morningmisty:
Good Morning, Lake Erie is frozen over.

Link

That does not sound good for the other water ways and rivers up there that are going to have a record snow melt coming.
Quoting Skyepony:
Eagle 101~ what is so shocking here? That his office was disorganized? He states AGW is happening. It's a confusing article, every 3rd sentence is what the sceptics think, he may have lost papers. A coworker says he has a messy desk..



Greetings Skyepony;

I am surprised you have to ask what is so shocking. We, or maybe I should say I, would expect more from a scientist in a position as important as his was. I, for one, document and archive everything I touch. I always follow a logical path, and make sure another professional could retrieve my work, and arrive at the same conclusion, every time. Sloppy work, and even worse, sloppy science and engineering, lead to doubt, and sometimes to preventable tragedies. Being a scientist or engineer brings with it the responsibility to accurately document nearly everything we do. Otherwise, what would be the point? Hope this clears up any questions you may have. Take care and have a great day.

Very Respectfully,

Jon
Eagle the other thing that bothers me about that article is the implication that the hockey stick graph is wrong because of Jones' office keeping skills.. Jones didn't create the hockey stick graph.. Mann did. Also...

The board of inquiry at Pennsylvania State University said it found no evidence that Michael Mann, a leading climatologist, had suppressed or falsified data, tried to destroy data or emails, or misused information. It will convene a second panel to investigate whether he had violated academic practices, including those governing exchanges between scholars. (as of Feb 3, 2010)

Quoting Floodman:


The issue here is the mental and probably calendar age of thiose involved; add to that the general anonymity of the format and people tend to say things they wouldn't have the guts to say to your face...it's one of the strengths of the format, but also one of the weknesses and people tend to break the conventions because no one knows who they are...

I'm so glad to hear about your dad; hopefully he'll get through all the post-op happiness and be fine!
LOL, Reminds of some of the kids I went to school with. When there friends were around , they were big shots and would bully other students. But as soon as you corner them in a hallway all alone they become Wimps.
Quoting Eagle101:


Greetings Energy;

I have come very close, during the last three years, to installing a whole-house Solar System, to include water heating. My incentive was three-fold: Reduce my families dependance on the grid; recieve a tax credit from the Feds, and my state (Florida) has an additional off-set, not to mention that estimated 25 year system pay-off (which just happens to coincide with the estimated 25 year life span of the cells!) Quite frankly, I am glad at this point that I did not. It seem's that many more here in Florida made the leap, only to find out that Florida's funds for reimbursement do not even come close to funding those who took risk, using there own funds. There are now literally thousands (you read that right) who are waiting on refunds. So, based on Florida's poor planning, many who were once considering this move now have zero incentive to proceed. Truly a shame. Take care, and have a great day.

I have not given up, and will continue to check system costs. There still may be solar in our future...I hope!

Very Respectfully,

Jon
I also agree with this post as I too have sought out alternatives to "get off the grid". And as you state, the costs are quite high. My reasons for wanting to "get off the grid" are to be self sufficiant, not dependant upon gov't control, thereby reducing the need for importation and deficiet reduction, the lowering of polution etc. It seems that Gov't is always talking big about such things but in the end only throws a band aid onto the current applications. It appears that a lot of money is fed into our gov't through the status quo of our current system and they are reluctant to let go or downsize the cash cow. What concerns me is that in large part the world does not know what the reserves are for fossil fuels. How many generations will pass until a new source will be mandatory to live. What is going to become the norm for energy for my children, or my grandchildren. It has been said that the country that leads in the use of renewable fuels would be a leader in the world. Even if you take the GW out of the argument, it would seem to me that a more stable market place would be established, thousands of new jobs would be instigated and the high demand on oil was largley declined there would be less demand for protection in the oil rich regions. Non of this is scientific, just a thought process attempting to use some common sense towards the future.
Eagle~ Jones is human, we aren't all neat & organized. He's not even a scientist representing my country's research. Last I checked almost all the IPCC predictions are beginning to come to pass sooner or more than expected...including the amount of greenhouses gases we would put out in the short time since the report. Somehow his messy office or even possible lost data doesn't change that.

& it's nice to actually discuss this with someone instead of discussing how we should discuss it..Thanks for bringing the article..
Quoting Eagle101:


Great points Floodman. For myself, I will not post something here I would not say to someone face-to-face. I am also not affraid to use my real name when signing my posts. I think that also goes along way to imparting sincerity.

Hydrus: Not sure familure with your fathers medical problems, but glad to hear he is doing ok. My families thoughts and prayers are with you and yours.
I respect people who are honest and direct. It reduces the prolixity of the posts and focuses on the important stuff. My Father had prostate removed. He was in serious shape for sometime. He doing better now.Thanks for prayers,those are always welcome here.:)
Just saw video (on TWC -- blush) of 40-car pile-up on I-70 bridge near Kansas City; cars on top of cars, but no one went over the bridge. I think they must be making cars safer, and that's my positive thought for the day.

**********

On the not so positive -- wu-mail is another avenue for bullying, and not so very anonymous, either. As I've been personally affected, the sad part for me is that I feel I have no recourse, other than ignoring and blocking. I'm not an innocent because I didn't ignore, over-apologized and over-explained, and got defensive.

I hang on to the thing I can feel good about -- I am not the one who resorted to vile name-calling.

I do suggest everyone read up on cyber-bullying and cyber-stalking.

ADD-ON: Thanks to all for civil discussion today. I haven't had to scroll past anyone...

- Edie
Quoting eyesontheweather:
I also agree with this post as I too have sought out alternatives to "get off the grid". And as you state, the costs are quite high. My reasons for wanting to "get off the grid" are to be self sufficiant, not dependant upon gov't control, thereby reducing the need for importation and deficiet reduction, the lowering of polution etc. It seems that Gov't is always talking big about such things but in the end only throws a band aid onto the current applications. It appears that a lot of money is fed into our gov't through the status quo of our current system and they are reluctant to let go or downsize the cash cow. What concerns me is that in large part the world does not know what the reserves are for fossil fuels. How many generations will pass until a new source will be mandatory to live. What is going to become the norm for energy for my children, or my grandchildren. It has been said that the country that leads in the use of renewable fuels would be a leader in the world. Even if you take the GW out of the argument, it would seem to me that a more stable market place would be established, thousands of new jobs would be instigated and the high demand on oil was largley declined there would be less demand for protection in the oil rich regions. Non of this is scientific, just a thought process attempting to use some common sense towards the future.


Greetings again Energy,

Well made points. I agree with your conclusions. We must take action, otherwise, I fear, we will all be in for big shock. You and I both know the answers are here, and ready to use now. But the cost is just too much for most of us to bear on an individual basis. You are defiantly right on the lobbyist…they have far too much power. As long as the few rule, the many will suffer. Why on earth would these “few” take a risk on losing billions (the aforementioned oil ‘cash cow’) for technology they know no one can afford on a large scale. Since the late ‘70’s, I have watched the government “invest” in developing energy alternatives, only to watch interest and dollars dry up after the politicians have gotten their “moment in the sun” (read: re-elected). Literally, billions and billions down the drain. Quite sad really. On another sad note, after one year, I can honestly say it appears “CHANGE” really just means more of the same…if you have the lobbyist, “we” have the time…

Very Respectfully,

Jon
Quoting Eagle101:


Greetings Skyepony;

I am surprised you have to ask what is so shocking. We, or maybe I should say I, would expect more from a scientist in a position as important as his was. I, for one, document and archive everything I touch. I always follow a logical path, and make sure another professional could retrieve my work, and arrive at the same conclusion, every time. Sloppy work, and even worse, sloppy science and engineering, lead to doubt, and sometimes to preventable tragedies. Being a scientist or engineer brings with it the responsibility to accurately document nearly everything we do. Otherwise, what would be the point? Hope this clears up any questions you may have. Take care and have a great day.

Very Respectfully,

Jon

I have worked with some exceptional minds in science, but I must say, the persona that makes up a good researcher sometimes includes horrible organizational skills...not a strong suit of mine own, either.

As the defacto IT guy, I have more than once been asked if I know where data, papers, programs, etc. might be in areas of hard drive partitions not accessed in the previous couple of years.

I will agree, though. In the research world, full documentation is a little less critical in the short term, than, say, a civil engineering firm designing a bridge being built next year, though. If Jones is really as poor at organization and documentation as it seems, one would think we could have had some assistant responsible for it. But, again, it simply hasn't got the near-term, potentially tragic, results as many other fields.
I've found the 1st step to getting off the grid is energy efficiency. Which has been tough in a crappy '80s build frame house. New appliances, caulk every 3-5 years & after big wind events, new ducts, careful tree placement, even adding a 4' trellis to the south side to block the summer sun from the slab (down in FL)~ all add up. Shock after the recent dreaded heating bill after running heat a month..new AC saved us at least $300 that month...total $104 Do the solar water heater next, way cheaper than the panels (most are like $2500) & they cut your power use roughly 1/4. By cutting the amount of electricity you use 1st you can buy less panels &/or windmills in the end, making the whole process cheaper.

Howdy, just a passing bit on efficiency. I put in a whole house tank-less (electric) water heater and it dropped my bill by $80 bucks. A new higher efficiency AC/heat pump unit dropped it another $60 per month. 2 stage compressor and no perpetual tank of hot water pays for itself in a few years. Have a have a happy all, on my NON-day off :(

BTW, the endless hot water is great when you have kids who used to hog it all :)
Quoting Eagle101:
This is quite scary, really. Entire nations have (or will attempt to) put in place policies which will cost nations, corporations, and individuals (who will most likely be the most hurt by such policies) a great deal of both currency and resources, even at a time when the world’s economy as a whole is in serious trouble.
This is not corrrect. And please provide your source about your policies you mentioned. Cooperations, Nations and the Public want basicly clean energy and many a tax on Co2. Further this will create the jobs and economy for the coming decades.

I repost this from last blog.

Global Warming Skeptics Lambaste Plan to Increase Funding for Climate Change Research
What, exactly, will the American taxpayer get for its global warming research dollars? The EPA is spending $43 million to implement the greenhouse-gas reporting rule, to perform regulatory work for the largest stationary sources of greenhouse gases, and to develop new standards for cars and trucks.

Research being funded at the National Science Foundation seeks to promote "discoveries needed to inspire societal actions leading to environmental and economic sustainability," according to an agency statement. The NSF's portfolio for global warming will reach $766 million.

a fact sheet from the White House Office of Management and Budget portrays the global warming funding as part of the Obama administration's new jobs-creation policy, which aims at making the U.S. "the world leader in developing the clean energy technologies that will lead to the industries and jobs of tomorrow."
http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/02/11/obama-spending-increase-global-warming-research/


Saudi Arabia to Replace Oil with Sun Power for Desalination Plants

Much of this may be changing, however, as Saudi Arabia is now interested in using solar energy to provide the power needed, instead of oil. According to an article on the UAE Top News media site, the Kingdom is now planning to build solar energy based desalination plants in order to save on energy costs, as well as be in tune with new environmental polices. This might be to secure membership in the International Renewable Energy Agency, otherwise known as IRENA.

Saudi Finance Minister Ibrahim Al Assaf said “desalination is our strategic choice to supply an adequate supply of drinking water to people across the Kingdom.”

He added that by using solar energy instead of oil, it will focus more on using renewable energy and even become an exporter of this clean form of energy as it has been doing with oil.

In addition to desalination, solar energy will also be supplying energy to a country which has been historically known as being a world supplier of oil, especially to countries like the US. Solar energy will eventually enable to Saudis to not only have a renewable energy source to supply their own energy needs but will significantly reduce the cost of fresh water, as well as being able to export renewable energy, as well as oil.
http://www.greenprophet.com/2010/02/01/16722/saudi-arabia-desalination-solar/


Oil Industry Ready to Work on Global Warming

“President Obama comes to office with a strong commitment to tackle climate change,” said Tony Hayward, the chief executive of BP. “Suddenly the challenges many of us have been wrestling with for a long time — the importance of energy security in providing economic security, and tackling the issue of climate change in a way that is commercially viable — are center stage.”

Exxon Mobil, which had long been skeptical of global warming, offered its own suggestions. One of the company’s top executives, Michael J. Dolan, said that Exxon would back a tax on carbon, while criticizing a so-called cap-and-trade approach.

Mr. Dolan, a senior vice president at Exxon, said that a carbon tax would be simpler and less subject to manipulation than a trading system. “A carbon tax reduces policy risks for businesses and investors in a way that cap-and-trade schemes do not,” Mr. Dolan said during his address at the industry conference, organized by Cambridge Energy Research Associates, a consulting firm.

“In addition,” he said, “by reducing other taxes — such as income or excise taxes — we can make a carbon tax revenue-neutral and offset the impact of higher taxes on the economy.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/12/science/earth/12oil.html?_r=1&ref=business


China’s renewable energy views
The price of solar energy & wind turbines is falling all over the world. There was an article recently in the New York Times which showed the role of China in all of this. The main point is that China is a world leader when it comes to the manufacture of solar panels & wind turbines. This is why it can easily achieve economies of scale and is also able to offer products at a low market price.

There are 2 consquences of this:

1. The installation of renewable sources of energy will become cheaper.
2. Competitors manufacturing in different countries around the world have problems in competing with the Chinese manufacturers.

How did China reach this position? The articles in the New Your Times said the following:

“The biggest advantage that China has over all other countries in the world is that their demand for electricity is consistently rising by 15% every year. In U.S., power companies usually have to choose between purchasing equipment for renewable energy or to continue using their fossil fuel powered plants which are already built. In China, these companies need to buy lots of equipment and the alternative sources of energy like nuclear & wind are priced very competitively.” Or, in the U.S. and in Europe, various renewable energies are having to compete with the existing power supply whereas in China they do not have to. There is more than enough space for the rapid expansion of renewable energy as well as for coal power plants. The unlimited demand needes the expansion to be across the board. Another reason for the low price is the low cost of labor in China.
http://www.biofuelswatch.com/china-renewable-energy-views/

Microsoft co-founder Gates tackling climate change

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5h_iNFAG254im4XHNHGNRIpKj6bLA

Rep. Israel pines for 'space race' enthusiasm in clean energy debate
http://thehill.com/blogs/twitter-room/other-news/78927-rep-israel-pines-for-space-race-enthusiasm-i n-clean-energy-debate


Denmark to test wind powered cars in smart grid experiment
Cars could fill gaps in Denmark’s renewable energy supply if an experiment is successful. In a new vehicle-to-grid (V2G) experiment, Denmark will use batteries contained within electric cars to store excess wind power that will be fed back into the power grid when the wind isn’t blowing.

To be conducted on the island of Bornholm, parked electric cars will store excess energy that is generated when the wind is blowing particularly hard. When the wind isn’t blowing, the cars will feed electricity back into the power grid.

The venture-backed firm, launched in 2007 and based in Palo Alto, Calif., aims to create networks of electric cars worldwide. Deals have been announced in other densely packed "transportation islands," as Agassi calls them, in Denmark, Australia, San Francisco, Hawaii, the west coast of Canada, along with a small taxi scheme in Japan.
http://www.smartmeters.com/the-news/560-denmark-to-test-wind-powered-cars-in-smart-grid-experiment. html

San Francisco Joins "Better Place" Electric Car Project
http://solveclimate.com/blog/20081121/san-francisco-joins-better-place-electric-car-project

Better Place Takes Big Leap Forward with Israel Electric-Car Pilot

"Israel is detaching itself from oil," said Shai Agassi (photo), the 41-year-old, Israeli-born founder of the company. The government "really wants this to happen," he said. "It is a national project."

Even if the cars run off coal, "the emissions impact is the difference between a full glass of water on oil and a drop of water on battery," said Shai Agassi. Citing a study by the Israel Electric Corporation, the Better Place head said the nation could switch all of its cars to electric without requiring any new generation.

The reason is the company's so-called "smart batteries." The giant, 550-pound power packs will contain "bi-directional" charging that will allow parked cars to feed power back to the grid, turning them into petite power plants.

The technology, known as vehicle to grid, or V2G, is still in its infancy. Tal Agassi said that between 2013 to 2015, when large amounts of cars are running, the company will be able to deploy it but not before. Theoretically, he said, a half a million electric vehicles could send one gigawatt of power back to the grid — equivalent to about 10 percent of Israel's electricity consumption in a single day.
http://solveclimate.com/blog/20100209/better-place-takes-big-leap-forward-israel-electric-car-pilot
Quoting indianrivguy:


you exposed your nutsack in your avatar on a family rated website and this surprises you?

Interesting read Skye, thanks!


Well there goes my lunch.
Quoting Skyepony:
I've found the 1st step to getting off the grid is energy efficiency. Which has been tough in a crappy '80s build frame house. New appliances, caulk every 3-5 years & after big wind events, new ducts, careful tree placement, even adding a 4' trellis to the south side to block the summer sun from the slab (down in FL)~ all add up. Shock after the recent dreaded heating bill after running heat a month..new AC saved us at least $300 that month...total $104 Do the solar water heater next, way cheaper than the panels (most are like $2500) & they cut your power use roughly 1/4. By cutting the amount of electricity you use 1st you can buy less panels &/or windmills in the end, making the whole process cheaper.



Good post. After I retired from the Air Force, and we settled down and bought a house, the first thing I did was replace the entire HVAC system. My house was built in 1974, and the system was that old. We replaced it with a very energy efficient system, which cost more, and immediately realized a $150 reduction in our electric bill. Amazing. Since then, I have had all the insulation replaced, installed much better windows, and most likely this summer will embark on an experiment. We have a new (3 years old now) roof. They installed the typical dark singles, as there were no (at the time) light colored singles available. So, I am going to have a white elastomeric coating put on the roof. I am also considering some coating for the side walls to reflect even more solar energy. I will be documenting both energy cost reductions (hopefully) and using logging temp. sensors to see if there really is a difference. If so, I plan to write a paper on this. You are right in that even the smallest effort will be rewarded. Thanks for sharing your efforts. Take care.

Very Respectfully,

Jon
Quoting indianrivguy:


you exposed your nutsack in your avatar on a family rated website and this surprises you?

Interesting read Skye, thanks!
Lmao
Quoting Skyepony:
I've found the 1st step to getting off the grid is energy efficiency. Which has been tough in a crappy '80s build frame house. New appliances, caulk every 3-5 years & after big wind events, new ducts, careful tree placement, even adding a 4' trellis to the south side to block the summer sun from the slab (down in FL)~ all add up. Shock after the recent dreaded heating bill after running heat a month..new AC saved us at least $300 that month...total $104 Do the solar water heater next, way cheaper than the panels (most are like $2500) & they cut your power use roughly 1/4. By cutting the amount of electricity you use 1st you can buy less panels &/or windmills in the end, making the whole process cheaper.

Very good points and currently have involved various technologies for my region and have a very efficiant energy consumption. I also make sure trips in auto are combined to accomplish many things in one trip vs several trips. Your point is well taken and sincerely hope that all individuals want to accomplish same. Beyond that though I would like to see something (alternative fuel) used in this country that does not involve huge importation of fuels and huge exportation of money. Again, I appreciate your input Skyponey
Question to all! If ones research is flawed to serve a purpose and knowingly flawed to do so. To think that the data would come up lost because of terrible record keeping, would be very easy way out.

Did his research show no Global Warming since 1995 before or was it just released convenently so now. I have not read enough to know the facts about his research yet!

Climategate U-turn as scientist at centre of row admits: There has been no global warming since 1995
Quoting TampaSpin:
Question to all! If ones research is flawed to serve a purpose and knowingly flawed to do so. To think that the data would come up lost because of terrible record keeping, would be very easy way out.

Did his research show no Global Warming since 1995 before or was it just released convenently so now. I have not read enough to know the facts about his research yet!

Climategate U-turn as scientist at centre of row admits: There has been no global warming since 1995


RoseGate becomes DailyMailGate: Error-riddled articles and false statements destroy Daily Mail’s credibilty
Two top climate scientists and the NSIDC accuse Daily Mail of misquoting and misrepresenting them or their work.


February 15, 2010

Readers should assume that everything they see in the Daily Mail is untrue and unverified. Scientists should refuse to grant interviews to the paper without a third-party present or an agreement to allow a review of any quotes used.

One of the British newspapers leading the charge to undermine the credibility of climate science has had its own credibility rocked. Two leading scientists, Murari Lal and Mojib Latif, have accused the Daily Mail of misquoting and misrepresenting them. And the National Snow and Ice Data Center has accused the paper of printing “nonsense” and of “very lazy journalism.”

Lending further credibility to the scientists’ charges are a pattern of false and misleading statements in the paper (and by DM reporter David Rose in comments on this very blog).

The latest self-inflicted body blow to the Daily Mail is this outrageously false headline (and subhed) echoing through the right-wing blogosphere:

Climategate U-turn as scientist at centre of row admits: There has been no global warming since 1995

… There has been no global warming since 1995

Not. Here’s the BBC interview with Phil Jones that DM is twisting:

BBC: Do you agree that from 1995 to the present there has been no statistically-significant global warming.

Jones: Yes, but only just. I also calculated the trend for the period 1995 to 2009. This trend (0.12C per decade) is positive, but not significant at the 95% significance level. The positive trend is quite close to the significance level. Achieving statistical significance in scientific terms is much more likely for longer periods, and much less likely for shorter periods.

Jones ain’t great at answering questions, something I’ll return to in a later post. For instance, he should point out the recent Met Office reanalysis of their data (see Finally, the truth about the Hadley/CRU data: “The global temperature rise calculated by the Met Office’s HadCRUT record is at the lower end of likely warming”).

Even so, no scientist should have to put up with that kind of gross misrepresentation. And no, the fact that the story itself is (a tad) better on this one point does not excuse the headlines, which is as far as many people read.

Sadly, pushing disinformation has become standard operating procedure for the paper.

DailyMailGate (aka RoseGate) began with two articles that had unjustifiably sensational headlines in early January, “The mini ice age starts here” by David Rose and “Could we be in for 30 years of global COOLING? By [unnamed] Daily Mail Reporter.” Both were based on misrepresenting Latif and NSIDC’s work, as I showed here. Latif went to the UK’s Guardian with his strong charges of misrepresentation against the DM, and they ran this piece:

Read Full Article
http://climateprogress.org/2010/02/15/rosegate-dailymail-error-riddled-articles-misquote-credibilit y-science/
There goes our respectful and mature conversation...

(this comment is not about post 52...)
I think another reason for going off the grid is to be self-sufficient. It seems many people want the system to bring them a net profit, but the self-sufficiency it would afford you is worth more than any amount of money. No one likes to be dependent on someone else. It's denigrating and brings shame. The immeasurable sense of supporting yourself pays in dividends.

I think the greatest danger we have with energy is what will happen if it's true that we're hitting peak oil. If it's true then the cost can only go up. What makes it worse is that some of the most backwards countries in the world are the ones banking on oil profits. They have us over the barrel. They possess us.

And... there're many people using solar power and making a profit. But not everyone will, depending on where they live and what the policy is in their nation state.

Anyway, what i'd like to see is a self-sufficiency revolution, as opposed to a profit-driven revolution. First of all, we can't put nuclear power plants or coal power plants in our backyard, but we CAN setup a solar panel just about anywhere. That is freedom. That is mobility. That is empowerment. It's self-affirming. Any kind of centralized power system, no matter how efficient or profitable, will not have the same impact on peoples lives. It cannot imbue us with the spirit of independence.
Quoting atmoaggie:
There goes our respectful and mature conversation...

(this comment is not about post 52...)

Please elaborate more.
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

Please elaborate more.


NO, NO, please don't, TMI (too much information) -- pass the brain and eye bleach!

Dr.OOC, did you read post #52? (ADD, whoops, I think Atmo's dry sense of humor went over my head for a second.)

#62 -- WHAT? I can't hear you when you're name-calling our Blog host, or anyone else.
Quoting StormChaser81:


Well there goes my lunch.


I heard that. I wish I had the new Firefox Nad block plus loaded :)
Quoting scottsvb:


Yet here you go and insist on putting your own useless two cents worth in. Didn't know you took a poll on the fan base. Must have missed that one. Wack job, huh? The door is that way if you don't like his posts.
Uh, Oss, IF you're still around, would you mind telling me if you've had any trouble with your tankless water heater?

Back in '05, post-Rita, I was in a hotel where they just didn't work...we got too many cold showers (though in the heat sometimes it wasn't too bad.)
They replaced them with regular hot-water heaters.
Disappointing and expensive, I'm sure.

So it would be great if they've been improved, if your model works!
Quoting scottsvb:
This is why I hardly post on this forum. Masters has really become a Wack Job @ Global Warming BS. Anyone can post up bad graphics and false scares. These blogs has turned 50% into Climatology BS! Most Mets know the Earth's Climate goes thru cycle as does other planets and its mostly affect by the Sun!

Are we warming..Are we cooling? We have NO REAL DATA to say otherwise. You Dont Use The Past 100 Years "CAUSE DATA EVEN 10 YEARS AGO WASNT AS GOOD AS TODAYS..AND TO GO BACK 100 YEARS AGO THE DATA WAS PROBABLY 99% WRONG"

Listen..have we been warming over the past decade or 2 compared the the PREVIOUS decades in the 70s-mid 80s. Yes.. but it was the SUN solar cycles that does it. There is ALOT of evidence that we are back to a cooling period cause of the SUN solar cyles.

Finally Masters, this is your blog and can say what you want.. but your fan base is based on Meteorology not Climatology. Your no different than a LA Actor speaking their stupid opinion on politics.. We Dont Want To Hear About It (Climatology).
WOW, #1, You don't have the capability to say you agree to disagree in a more polite method.
#2 you contradict yourself in paragraph 2 and 3. You can't have it both ways. Saying there is not enough evidence for the argument in para 2 then saying that there is evidence of the sun argument in para 3.
But I can spell!

Quoting scottsvb:
This is why I hardly post on this forum. Masters has really become a Wack Job @ Global Warming BS. Anyone can post up bad graphics and false scares. These blogs has turned 50% into Climatology BS! Most Mets know the Earth's Climate goes thru cycle as does other planets and its mostly affect by the Sun!

Are we warming..Are we cooling? We have NO REAL DATA to say otherwise. You Dont Use The Past 100 Years "CAUSE DATA EVEN 10 YEARS AGO WASNT AS GOOD AS TODAYS..AND TO GO BACK 100 YEARS AGO THE DATA WAS PROBABLY 99% WRONG"

Listen..have we been warming over the past decade or 2 compared the the PREVIOUS decades in the 70s-mid 80s. Yes.. but it was the SUN solar cycles that does it. There is ALOT of evidence that we are back to a cooling period cause of the SUN solar cyles.

Finally Masters, this is your blog and can say what you want.. but your fan base is based on Meteorology not Climatology. Your no different than a LA Actor speaking their stupid opinion on politics.. We Dont Want To Hear About It (Climatology).


Annnnd another to add to the ignore list.
If you don't like Dr. Master's blog then *gasp* DONT READ IT! How can you say that all data is unreliable and then go to talk about the Sun (like #67: eyesontheweather jsut said)? And you can't contribute the entire planet's warming/cooling cycles to JUST the Sun. It very well be the main cause (who knows!), but don't trash others just because you think they are wrong. Especially Dr. M. He has a lot of background/knowledge in meteorology AND climate change.
66 - AIM, initially I did have an issue that was two fold. First, you are suppose to install these at the lowest point in the system. I could not and experienced some element damage from back flow. That was cured with an anti-back flow device. Secondly, the control boards on the 3 separate heating elements had a resistor that was not up to par and failed after about 6 months. I initially replace the resistor with a much better one and it has worked flawlessly since (nearly 3 years). BTW, EEmax was extremely good on the customer service side. They sent me replacement parts free of charge and I still have those in stock if I need them. Including the control boards with on-board transformers instead of the resistors. I hope that helps :)
Quoting scottsvb:
This board has become a bunch a delousional Global Warming freaks. I guess the avg shmuck has been replying.

No need to name call. There are plenty of people who have not argues for or against GW on this blog, including myself. I have done quite a bit of research on it, but I still have not stuck my neck out into the topic on this blog for many reasons. If you dont like the blog (or it's contributors) then leave. There is NO need for name calling.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0130
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 PM CST MON FEB 15 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN OH EWD/ENEWD INTO CENTRAL PA
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 151841Z - 152345Z

SNOWFALL RATES LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF 1"/HR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CENTERED ON AN AREA FROM W CENTRAL OH
EWD/ENEWD ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL PA
MOUNTAINS.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOWLY INCREASING WSW-ENE BAND OF
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...PARALLEL TO BUT N OF THE
MID-LEVEL LOW TRACK AS REVEALED BY LATEST WV IMAGERY. TWO-HOUR
SURFACE PRESSURE FALL MAXIMUM RESIDES ACROSS THIS AREA IMPLYING AN
AREA OF CONCENTRATED ASCENT...AND CONFIRMED BY THE OBSERVED INCREASE
IN RADAR REFLECTIVITY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO INTO NRN WV/SWRN PA.

EXPECT THIS SNOW BAND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...SLOWLY ERODING ON THE WRN FRINGE WHILE EXPANDING EWD WITH
TIME IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW. THE BAND
OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY NARROW FROM N-S -- I.E. ON
THE ORDER OF 60 TO 80 MILES...REMAINING LIMITED AREALLY ON THE S END
BY THE EWD-SHIFTING DRY SLOT AND ON THE N END BY APPARENT SUBSIDENCE
EVIDENT IN RADAR TRENDS.

..GOSS.. 02/15/2010
HurricaneHunterGal, here is the sun part (RF Radiative forcing) explained
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/08/the-co2-problem-in-6-easy-steps/
scottsv....

by you OWN admission (post #62) you say that the earth is warming (because of the sun). like many others have pointed out, you contradicted yourself quite badly.

and if you think dr masters is a "wackjob" or whatever insult you can come up with, then DONT visit the site. you are certainly free to think what you want, but you are not free to come here, insult us and dr masters and not have to suffer the consequences. im not adding you to my ignore list yet, but i certainly flagged your posts when you used insults.
when dos the midwest start geting in too there severe weather season are they this now geting in too it ???
I think quite a lot of people are falling for an obvious troll :P

Good rule for blogs => the more you feel angry when you read a post, the less need to reply or start a discussion :)
i no i no whats move the Winter Olympics too Washington D.C.
Just curious, has anyone read this item? L8R, back to work :(

http://economics.huji.ac.il/facultye/beenstock/Nature_Paper091209.pdf

The last of the dominoes are falling. It's all over now but the whining...

http://tinyurl.com/yb2loyt
We have good data "Today" that shows the Sun affects global climates on Earth and other planets.

We dont have accurate data to know what it was like 10 years ago 50 years ago 100 years ago. Further back in time you go.. the less accurate the data or info now (back then) was.

We cant say the Earth is Warmer now then 100 years ago.

We cant say if there is any affect by Humans more than 1%

Only thing we can say is that the Suns activitys does have a affect. We cant say how much affect % wise is does have though.

Thats all Im trying to point out.
Quoting FFtrombi:
I think quite a lot of people are falling for an obvious troll :P

Good rule for blogs => the more you feel angry when you read a post, the less need to reply or start a discussion :)




??????????
Quoting Tazmanian:
when dos the midwest start geting in too there severe weather season are they this now geting in too it ???


Do you mean tornado season? That is in spring when the cold dry air meats up with the moist air from the Gulf as the warm fronts start pushing north.
Quoting scottsvb:


LOL then dont read what I post also! Dumb Dumb. I actually had to un-hide you.. I guess no one likes your posts also?


Wow, how old are you? I really don't care if you had to "un-hide" me. This makes the 4th thing I have posted today. If somone wishes to not read what I have to say, then they can hide me. I don't care if somone disagrees with my posts. thats what intellectual debate is. Recently the blog has gone from intellecual debate, to people getting furious when somone disagrees with them and ending up in a name-calling feud. I assure you more people do not want to read your name calling than whatever I choose to post--most of the time it is weather/climate/blog related, and I also avoid name calling.
Quoting PcolaDan:


Do you mean tornado season? That is in spring when the cold dry air meats up with the moist air from the Gulf as the warm fronts start pushing north.



yes
Does any of this really matter to you geeks?
Flurries?? http://www.baynews9.com/Klystron9.html?category=forecast
PcolaDan so it starts by mid MAR too late MAR
Quoting Tazmanian:
i no i no whats move the Winter Olympics too Washington D.C.


LOL Well, except for the lack of mountains, may be a good idea. Guess there is always Capitol Hill, but you can usually rely on a hot wind there. :)
do i smell a smell i think i smell trolls
Quoting scottsvb:
This board has become a bunch a delousional Global Warming freaks. I guess the avg shmuck has been replying.
I am all for constructive well thought out posts regardless of the position. But this has sunk to mindless
Quoting PcolaDan:


LOL Well, except for the lack of mountains, may be a good idea. Guess there is always Capitol Hill, but you can usually rely on a hot wind there. :)



hot winds?
Algae to solve the Pentagon's jet fuel problem

The brains trust of the Pentagon says it is just months away from producing a jet fuel from algae for the same cost as its fossil-fuel equivalent.

The claim, which comes from the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (Darpa) that helped to develop the internet and satellite navigation systems, has taken industry insiders by surprise. A cheap, low-carbon fuel would not only help the US military, the nation's single largest consumer of energy, to wean itself off its oil addiction, but would also hold the promise of low-carbon driving and flying for all.
and
Unlike corn-based ethanol, algal farms do not threaten food supplies. Some strains are being grown on household waste and in brackish water. Algae draw carbon dioxide from the atmosphere when growing; when the derived fuel is burned, the same CO2 is released, making the fuel theoretically zero-carbon, although processing and transporting the fuel requires some energy.

The industry received a further boost earlier this month, when the Environmental Protection Agency declared that algae-based diesel reduced greenhouse gas emissions by more than 50% compared with conventional diesel. The Obama administration had earlier awarded $80m in research grants to a new generation of algae and biomass fuels.

For Darpa, the support for algae is part of a broader mission for the US military to obtain half of its fuel from renewable energy sources by 2016. That time line meant that the Pentagon needed to develop technologies to make its hardware "fuel agnostic", capable that is of running on any energy source including methane and propane.

DARPA is also working on making solar cells much more efficient.

The whole article is worth a read.
Here's our 7 day forecast, I'm thinking the possibility exist more for Tues. night/ Early Wed. morning...

http://www.baynews9.com/Klystron9.html?category=forecast
Annnd... Another 4 posts between 62 and 75 just went poof. I don't mind intelligent conversation. I do mind name calling.

Have a nice day!
goodness - you guys are feeding the trolls again.

On a weather related note - anyone currently on from Maryland/BWI area? Are you getting snow today or is it further north?

TIA
Quoting Tazmanian:
PcolaDan so it starts by mid MAR too late MAR


In a normal year it tends to start in early to mid April. The more serious season is more in May as the warm fronst really begin to punch north bringing tons of heat and moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico.
Quoting zoomiami:
goodness - you guys are feeding the trolls again.

On a weather related note - anyone currently on from Maryland/BWI area? Are you getting snow today or is it further north?

TIA


Hiya zoo, you can get somw real good camera shots at trafficland.com which looks fairly clear right now. Is moving into DC area from SW right now and doesn't look too heavy.
Quoting PcolaDan:


In a normal year it tends to start in early to mid April. The more serious season is more in May as the warm fronst really begin to punch north bringing tons of heat and moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico.



ok so we are not yet there
Quoting Tazmanian:



hot winds?


LOL Congress!
i noted we got a new toy called Full Screen new!
Quoting PcolaDan:


LOL Congress!



oh
Quoting jpritch:
Algae to solve the Pentagon's jet fuel problem


DARPA is also working on making solar cells much more efficient.

The whole article is worth a read.

Thanks. In regards to solar revolution ...

Enhanced absorption and carrier collection in Si wire arrays for photovoltaic applications
Here, we show that arrays having less than 5% areal fraction of wires can achieve up to 96% peak absorption, and that they can absorb up to 85% of day-integrated, above-bandgap direct sunlight. In fact, these arrays show enhanced near-infrared absorption, which allows their overall sunlight absorption to exceed the ray-optics light-trapping absorption limit
http://www.nature.com/nmat/journal/vaop/ncurrent/abs/nmat2635.html
i no what DC can do too all that snow send it too Vancouver
Taz, I was in Wichita Falls Texas for this tornado and it was on April 10. Bad ones can come any time the season starts, just like hurricane season.

1979 tornado
Main article: Red River Valley Tornado Outbreak

An F4 tornado struck the heavily populated southern sections of Wichita Falls in the late afternoon on Tuesday, April 10, 1979 (known locally as "Terrible Tuesday").[citation needed] The storm was part of an outbreak that produced 30 tornadoes around the region. Despite having nearly an hour's advance warning that severe weather was imminent, 45 people were killed (25 in vehicles) and 1,800 were injured because the storm arrived just in time for many people to be driving home from work.[citation needed] The tornado left 20,000 people homeless and caused $400 million in damage, a U.S. record not topped by an individual tornado until the F5 Moore-Oklahoma City tornado of May 3, 1999.[11]
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Uh, Oss, IF you're still around, would you mind telling me if you've had any trouble with your tankless water heater?

Back in '05, post-Rita, I was in a hotel where they just didn't work...we got too many cold showers (though in the heat sometimes it wasn't too bad.)
They replaced them with regular hot-water heaters.
Disappointing and expensive, I'm sure.

So it would be great if they've been improved, if your model works!


We have had a tankless water heater for 5 years. It is terrific. We can shower, do laundry, and run the dishwasher at the same time and it keeps up with the demand.
Quoting scottsvb:
This board has become a bunch a delousional Global Warming freaks. I guess the avg shmuck has been replying.

Negative. Many of us are capable of dissenting view points (without the derision, which doesn't gain much for the commenter nor his/her arguments)
Quoting GrtLksQuest:


We have had a tankless water heater for 5 years. It is terrific. We can shower, do laundry, and run the dishwasher at the same time and it keeps up with the demand.


That would be so awesome! We can only do one at a time, and we don't want to buy a larger tank.
Quoting PcolaDan:
Taz, I was in Wichita Falls Texas for this tornado and it was on April 10. Bad ones can come any time the season starts, just like hurricane season.

1979 tornado
Main article: Red River Valley Tornado Outbreak

An F4 tornado struck the heavily populated southern sections of Wichita Falls in the late afternoon on Tuesday, April 10, 1979 (known locally as "Terrible Tuesday").[citation needed] The storm was part of an outbreak that produced 30 tornadoes around the region. Despite having nearly an hour's advance warning that severe weather was imminent, 45 people were killed (25 in vehicles) and 1,800 were injured because the storm arrived just in time for many people to be driving home from work.[citation needed] The tornado left 20,000 people homeless and caused $400 million in damage, a U.S. record not topped by an individual tornado until the F5 Moore-Oklahoma City tornado of May 3, 1999.[11]



ok
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Flurries?? http://www.baynews9.com/Klystron9.html?category=forecast


WTH have you been smoking, Flurries?
#96.. thanks JP..

Hiya Zoo!
Quoting lickitysplit:
Its been quite entertaining to watch the flat earthers urinate all over themselves as it snows in DC and the south all the while ignoring heat deaths in Brazil and the mess up in Vancouver.

(without the derision, which doesn't gain much for the commenter nor his/her arguments)
Here comes the rain.

Quoting jeffs713:
Annnd... Another 4 posts between 62 and 75 just went poof. I don't mind intelligent conversation. I do mind name calling.

Have a nice day!


YO! I think my ignore button is worn out. Good post!
Quoting Ossqss:
66 - AIM, initially I did have an issue that was two fold. First, you are suppose to install these at the lowest point in the system. I could not and experienced some element damage from back flow. That was cured with an anti-back flow device. Secondly, the control boards on the 3 separate heating elements had a resistor that was not up to par and failed after about 6 months. I initially replace the resistor with a much better one and it has worked flawlessly since (nearly 3 years). BTW, EEmax was extremely good on the customer service side. They sent me replacement parts free of charge and I still have those in stock if I need them. Including the control boards with on-board transformers instead of the resistors. I hope that helps :)


Just saw your post, Oss -- I sure appreciate the details, for the house tech (the husband), especially, lol!

I'm actually excited to look into this! Thanks!

***************

You know what's really great? Having friends/colleagues/acquaintances with differing opinions; and we can kid around, and jest, but either know or learn how far we can go; and we all help each other with the daily grind...

ADD: NO SNOW YET :-) And we're just supposed to get a smidge...smidge being a technical term for about an inch...unless it's been changed AGAIN, wouldn't be surprised!
96 & 106. We can only hope that these items become cost effective and available to the consumer. I hope to see more positive info on this as time progress's.
Quoting PcolaDan:
Taz, I was in Wichita Falls Texas for this tornado and it was on April 10. Bad ones can come any time the season starts, just like hurricane season.

1979 tornado
Main article: Red River Valley Tornado Outbreak

An F4 tornado struck the heavily populated southern sections of Wichita Falls in the late afternoon on Tuesday, April 10, 1979 (known locally as "Terrible Tuesday").[citation needed] The storm was part of an outbreak that produced 30 tornadoes around the region. Despite having nearly an hour's advance warning that severe weather was imminent, 45 people were killed (25 in vehicles) and 1,800 were injured because the storm arrived just in time for many people to be driving home from work.[citation needed] The tornado left 20,000 people homeless and caused $400 million in damage, a U.S. record not topped by an individual tornado until the F5 Moore-Oklahoma City tornado of May 3, 1999.[11]
I have a video and a book that talks about the 1979 Wichita Falls tornado. The injuries they show are some of the most horrific I have ever seen. The damage in some areas simply cannot be explained. It taxes satisfactory verbal description.
Quoting hydrus:
I have a video and a book that talks about the 1979 Wichita Falls tornado. The injuries they show are some of the most horrific I have ever seen. The damage in some areas simply cannot be explained. It taxes satisfactory verbal description.

Nooooo, not taxes! (thanks so much for the reminder as to what I am avoiding by being here at the moment...did you have to use that word? I was trying to be like Jeffs...)
Quoting hydrus:
I have a video and a book that talks about the 1979 Wichita Falls tornado. The injuries they show are some of the most horrific I have ever seen. The damage in some areas simply cannot be explained. It taxes satisfactory verbal description.


I was in Air Force tech school at the time. I had just gotten my 2 year oldson out of the hospital that day (hip infection, he was fine)and my Mother was there. Watched it from my 3rd floor apt. Remember it vividly, was looking for it and saw big black cloud SW of me thinking it would come out of that, saw flashes and knew it hit power lines, the cloud finally moved where I could see it better, which is when I realized, THE CLOUD WAS THE TORNADO --- 2 miles wide and headed straight for me. My mother said I have never before nor since talked to her the way I did went I sent the family into the bathroom and covered them with mattress and pillows. :) Kept an eye on it and saw it shift away from me and let out a sigh of relief. Hail as big as baseballs outside but the tornado missed us. Spent next few days body hunting (luckily I didn't find any). Was most horrific thing I had ever seen to date. Saw Andrew later and the scale was greater but weirder things in tornado - Corvette wrapped around tree bumper to bumper, van sticking out of a roof, unopened wine bottle - empty. Incredible power that I hope never to see again.
Quoting PcolaDan:


I was in Air Force tech school at the time. I had just gotten my 2 year oldson out of the hospital that day (hip infection, he was fine)and my Mother was there. Watched it from my 3rd floor apt. Remember it vividly, was looking for it and saw big black cloud SW of me thinking it would come out of that, saw flashes and knew it hit power lines, the cloud finally moved where I could see it better, which is when I realized, THE CLOUD WAS THE TORNADO --- 2 miles wide and headed straight for me. My mother said I have never before nor since talked to her the way I did went I sent the family into the bathroom and covered them with mattress and pillows. :) Kept an eye on it and saw it shift away from me and let out a sigh of relief. Hail as big as baseballs outside but the tornado missed us. Spent next few days body hunting (luckily I didn't find any). Was most horrific thing I had ever seen to date. Saw Andrew later and the scale was greater but weirder things in tornado - Corvette wrapped around tree bumper to bumper, van sticking out of a roof, unopened wine bottle - empty. Incredible power that I hope never to see again.
I went through Hurricane David that year. I was 13 in 1979, but I remember seeing on the news the devastation from that tornado. It was a rough weather year for S.W.Florida in 79, severe T-storms. Some of the worst I have ever seen. You are blessed to still have your family after such a catastrophe. We were by Lake O when David hit. It was bad. Andrew was an absolute nightmare as were Charley and Jeanne.
Quoting PcolaDan:
unopened wine bottle - empty

Huh? (thinking physics, how can that be?)
I watched a F3 go through a housing development in Orlando, FL, the things i saw where amazing and horrific, It went over a lake first and There was large mouth Bass thrown all over the housing development, among other types of fish. One of my fathers close friends lived in the housing development and when we arrived we saw nothing wrong with his house until we got to the back porch, It took the whole back porch walls and roof, the weird thing was the back side of the porch the meets the house still had the pictures on the wall untouched and on the table in front of the couch there was napkins and a cup of coffee still setting there. The weirdest was a straw (regular plastic straw) one inch deep into a oak tree.
Quoting PcolaDan:


I was in Air Force tech school at the time. I had just gotten my 2 year oldson out of the hospital that day (hip infection, he was fine)and my Mother was there. Watched it from my 3rd floor apt. Remember it vividly, was looking for it and saw big black cloud SW of me thinking it would come out of that, saw flashes and knew it hit power lines, the cloud finally moved where I could see it better, which is when I realized, THE CLOUD WAS THE TORNADO --- 2 miles wide and headed straight for me. My mother said I have never before nor since talked to her the way I did went I sent the family into the bathroom and covered them with mattress and pillows. :) Kept an eye on it and saw it shift away from me and let out a sigh of relief. Hail as big as baseballs outside but the tornado missed us. Spent next few days body hunting (luckily I didn't find any). Was most horrific thing I had ever seen to date. Saw Andrew later and the scale was greater but weirder things in tornado - Corvette wrapped around tree bumper to bumper, van sticking out of a roof, unopened wine bottle - empty. Incredible power that I hope never to see again.


You wanna talk about an incredible tornado. Look up Jarrell, TX. They had an F-5 in '97 I believe. It skeletonized cattle, and ripped asphalt off the roads. I think it's forward speed was something crazy like 1 or 2 mph.
Obama administration scientist on snowstorms: ‘Weather is not climate’
http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/677-e2-wire/81083-lubchenco-on-the-snowstorms-weather-is-not-clima te
Quoting charlottefl:


You wanna talk about an incredible tornado. Look up Jarrell, TX. They had an F-5 in '97 I believe. It skeletonized cattle, and ripped asphalt off the roads. I think it's forward speed was something crazy like 1 or 2 mph.
I have video footage of that one. The thing that always amazed me about that one it started out as a tiny ribbon and grew to massive proportions in short order.
Jinxed us -- it's snowing, again...at rush hour -- it's all that hot air coming off of the Hill that Dan mentioned. :)

It IS still supposed to be a light snow, isn't it?

BBL.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Huh? (thinking physics, how can that be?)


Exactly, makes no sense. Others said they opened bottles of water and they had grit in them. Maybe sever pressure change separated top some allowing liquid out. No idea really. Maybe just a good trick by someone. :)
Quoting StormChaser81:
I watched a F3 go through a housing development in Orlando, FL, the things i saw where amazing and horrific, It went over a lake first and There was large mouth Bass thrown all over the housing development, among other types of fish. One of my fathers close friends lived in the housing development and when we arrived we saw nothing wrong with his house until we got to the back porch, It took the whole back porch walls and roof, the weird thing was the back side of the porch the meets the house still had the pictures on the wall untouched and on the table in front of the couch there was napkins and a cup of coffee still setting there. The weirdest was a straw (regular plastic straw) one inch deep into a oak tree.


Was with one lady taking her to her house. Got to neighborhood and she said "What happened to my house? Where is the door?" Her house, which sat up some on brick pilings, had been lifted, shifted about 3 feet, and turned over 45 degrees and sat back down. Yea, it leaned a lot and one wall partially caved in and roof messed up.
Quoting indianrivguy:


you exposed your nutsack in your avatar on a family rated website and this surprises you?

Interesting read Skye, thanks!


That's a total lie and you know it. You ought to be ashamed of yourself
`
No skye not directed at you---he lied about my picture in a very mean way. If that had been true, I would have been permabanned, and rightfully so.
repost it then..
LOL.. do try as Indianriverguy suggests..
137, 139 - you two glutton for punishment or something? LOL.
142. P451
I don't know if it's been posted but a school collapse in Haiti due to heavy rain and an EQ has killed 3.





* Print
* ShareThis

PORT-AU-PRINCE, Haiti %u2014 A Red Cross official says a school has collapsed in northern Haiti, killing three children.

Red Cross spokesman Pericles Jean-Baptiste says the children were in the school when a wall collapsed at about noon Monday in the city of Cap-Haitien, about 80 miles north of the country's quake-shattered capital.

Officials say the area saw heavy rains and a small earthquake overnight, though the cause of the collapse is not immediately clear. The quake was not recorded by the U.S. Geological Survey.

A magnitude-7 quake on Jan. 12 near Port-au-Prince killed roughly 200,000 people.

Schools reopened last week in the north but they remain closed in the capital.
Skye, I'm not reposting a pic after being asked to take it down. But if what indianrivguy said was true, I would not be here right now. And I'm not discussing this topic anymore.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
just reading back i see there has been more fun had in the blogs shame really classic example of why nothing ever gets done too much talking and arguing and not enough action it would proably be best just to start again



i believe you have left me speechless keeper.
Quoting WaterWitch11:


i believe you have left me speechless keeper.
sorry waterwitch but i will only tell the truth even if it hurts
146. P451
Wow I hadn't been keeping up but that region is still very active.

A 5.4 off the SE coast of Cuba and a 4.0 near where the big one struck in Haiti. Combined with a smaller un-recorded EQ in northern Haiti.

Also don't forget that Montserrat erupted again.

The Carribean is very alive.
Quoting P451:
Wow I hadn't been keeping up but that region is still very active.

A 5.4 off the SE coast of Cuba and a 4.0 near where the big one struck in Haiti. Combined with a smaller un-recorded EQ in northern Haiti.

Also don't forget that Montserrat erupted again.

The Carribean is very alive.


and it wouldn't take much of a shaker to bring down wet mountain sides.. those poor people just don't seem to catch many breaks.
just heard golf is now a olympic sport thats all i need to see is these overpaid stars to get even more glory they have the ryder cup ext thats enough
Quoting leftovers:
just heard golf is now a olympic sport thats all i need to see is these overpaid stars to get even more glory they have the ryder cup ext thats enough


Its loosing my interest quickly, whatever happened to just leaving things along that have been fine for hundreds of years.
I think anyone that needs a reminder just listen and read along.... Lord knows we all need to know [?]



Taco :0)

StSimon~ I saw the pic.. & don't forget I did my duty as a photo moderator. Usually questionable materiel is just removed & perhaps a please don't repost is sent. Something as tastefully done as you posted wouldn't get a ban:)..
Thanks skye. Didn't know you had been a photo moderator. I'd rather not discuss this topic however, it makes me too angry.
Quoting leftovers:
just heard golf is now a olympic sport thats all i need to see is these overpaid stars to get even more glory they have the ryder cup ext thats enough
And I suppose they are going to call these golfers "Olympic Athletes" a definite misnomer in my opinion.
Global warming, smoeble warming.

No global warming since 1995:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1250872/Climategate-U-turn-Astonishment-scientist-centre-gl obal-warming-email-row-admits-data-organised.html

Al Gore is in hiding.....
StSimonsIslandGAGuy sometimes people only see what they want to see and i saw the picture change unless ya blew it up 400 percent and zoomed in but then in that case maybe thats what they were looking for thats why they see it beleive me sometimes people see things that are just not there
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
StSimonsIslandGAGuy sometimes people only see what they want to see and i saw the picture change unless ya blew it up 400 percent and zoomed in but then in that case maybe thats what they were looking for thats why they see it beleive me sometimes people see things that are just not there
This is hilarious...
Keeper~ Some people just have a really big monitor.. no need to blow anything up here..


Nature Geoscience, published online 7 February 2010; doi: 10.1038/ngeo761
Snowfall increase in coastal East Antarctica linked with southwest Western Australian drought
Tas D. van Ommen and Vin Morgan

Australian Antarctic Division and Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Private Bag 80, Hobart 7001, Tasmania, Australia

Abstract

The southwest corner of Western Australia has been subject to a serious drought in recent decades. A range of factors, such as natural variability and changes in land use, ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation, have been implicated in this drought, but the ultimate cause and the relative importance of the various factors remain unclear. Here we report a significant inverse correlation between the records of precipitation at Law Dome, East Antarctica and southwest Western Australia over the instrumental period, including the most recent decades. This relationship accounts for up to 40% of the variability on interannual to decadal timescales, and seems to be driven by the meridional circulation south of Australia that simultaneously produces a northward flow of relatively cool, dry air to southwest Western Australia and a southward flow of warm, moist air to East Antarctica. This pattern of meridional flow is consistent with some projections of circulation changes arising from anthropogenic climate change. The precipitation anomaly of the past few decades in Law Dome is the largest in 750 years, and lies outside the range of variability for the record as a whole, suggesting that the drought in Western Australia may be similarly unusual.

*Correspondence e-mail: tas.van.ommen@aad.gov.au

Link to abstract: http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/abs/ngeo761.html
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
beleive me sometimes people see things that are just not there


Agreed with ya Keeper and that last part for sure....

Taco :0)
Quoting hydrus:
This is hilarious...
why would you say that
Rate of ocean acidification the fastest in 65 million years

Press release issued 14 February 2010

A paper published in Nature Geoscience

A new model, capable of assessing the rate at which the oceans are acidifying, suggests that changes in the carbonate chemistry of the deep ocean may exceed anything seen in the past 65 million years.

The model also predicts much higher rates of environmental change at the ocean’s surface in the future than have occurred in the past, potentially exceeding the rate at which plankton can adapt.

The research, from the University of Bristol, is reported in this week's issue of Nature Geoscience.

The team applied a model that compared current rates of ocean acidification with the greenhouse event at the Paleocene-Eocene boundary, about 55 million years ago when surface ocean temperatures rose by around 5-6°C over a few thousand years. During this event, no catastrophe is seen in surface ecosystems, such as plankton, yet bottom-dwelling organisms in the deep ocean experienced a major extinction..

it goes on..
Quoting scottsvb:
This board has become a bunch a delousional Global Warming freaks. I guess the avg shmuck has been replying.


Only in the winter my friend, at least there is debates and discussions.. but come May.. all hell breaks loose. 'ITS TRENDING WEST FL LANDFALL!!' 'lol poof what a dud hurricane season'. Ya know, the usual.
Just got the coolest thing in the mail. It's here for a test. A little computer, fits in my hand, to hook my PWS into. No need to have the big pig computer on for my station to be online. Uses the electricity of a nightlight. I'll let ya'll know how it works out.
Good afternoon everyone. I haven't posted here in some time, I believe the last time was during the duration of Hurricane Ida.

Just thought I'd pop in and say hello. I won't be around much until hurricane season, since these global warming debates don't really interest me.
Quoting Skyepony:
Just got the coolest thing in the mail. It's here for a test. A little computer, fits in my hand, to hook my PWS into. No need to have the big pig computer on for my station to be online. Uses the electricity of a nightlight. I'll let ya'll know how it works out.


O_O

Nice.
Quoting hydrus:
This is hilarious...
Keeper, you have an E-Mail.
Getting large sleet/snow pellets in Greensboro now.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
sorry waterwitch but i will only tell the truth even if it hurts


it didn't hurt, it was just a reminder that we are only here temporarily.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Re-Post from previous blog:

369. Grothar 2:58 PM GMT on February 15, 2010

Most of you know me on the blog. I have never got into the argument of AGW either pro or con. Therefore, I would find it difficult to believe anyone could know my full position on subject. However, I noticed a comment this morning in which my name was mentioned. As many of you know, I was born in the U.S. of American Parents. In the U.S. since the 1800's. I was educated in Europe, residing mostly in the Scandinavian countries and Germany, but many other countries as well (including Greenland).

There reference this morning was to my "denial" of conditions in Greenland when the early Viking settlers lived there. If some of you may not realize, the schools in the Scandinavia countries often teach the Old Norse languages and we must read the full history of our countries,even to the point of learning the old runic alpabet. I am quite well aware of the large Viking settlements which were in Greenland from approximately 800-1200 A.D. The climate was much warmer than it is today, especially along the southwestern coast. There was farming, grazing, cattle raising and abundant forests along the coastal area. The settlements may have supported population well over 10,000 inhabitans. I have visited many of the sites of the old villages.

The clarification I attempeted to make to one of the bloggers a while back, was that the ice sheets were still relatively the same at that time as they are today. The entire island of Greenland was not a lush paradise. Even at that time, the winters were much colder in Greenland than they were in Iceland and Norway. The question which still remains, was why the settlements were abandoned. It is known that after 1300 A.D. The climate became much colder and they settlers could not apapt.

When I see derogatory remarks made about our host, Dr. Masters, it is upsetting in the fact that it is now no longer a lack of civility which prevails, but total lack of respect for anyone's opinions. This is directed to both sides of the argument. If they disagree that much, let them start their own blog. If I ever want to clarify something, I normally e-mail the person as not to cause embarrassment or create another argument. I have never berated anyone on this blog or resorted to name-calling. I would expect others to behave the same, but obviously that is behavior for which many on this blog are incapabable.
Hi, everyone. Hope you had a good day so far.

Thanks for the repost, Awake. I support Grothar in this; too many bloggers get their sheets in a wad and start spewing junk about the Doc and making ad hominem attacks. For this, I love the Admins who gave us [-] and[!] buttons. However, I also think we need to remind pple of the rules of the blog. I've seen person after person respectfully disagree with the doc on stuff; some pple even can manage to do it with each other. Can we please leave the personal attacks and petty bickering, regardless of topic, off the blog?

Go Grothar!
Comment #52 was yanked. Good.
Doesn't sound good for the skiers. Oh well, my new baby biorb fish likes warm weather at least!
I don't think Vancouver was the best place to hold the Winter Olympics anyway.
Good evening everyone, looks like the entire USA will get a break from the insane El Nino. Believe me after 14 inches of snow here in SE Arlington, TX I am ready for a break! The temps will be below normal, but at least we will have temps in the 55-60F range for highs, with lows in the mid 20's rising into the near 40F range throughout this week!
Sad for the Winter Olympics, as they are fighting "Mother Nature" and an exceptionally warm Feb 2010.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Comment #52 was yanked. Good.

Almost afraid to ask, what was objectionable about post #52?
Quoting wxgeek723:
I don't think Vancouver was the best place to hold the Winter Olympics anyway.

Actually in a normal winter the Vancouver, BC area has plenty of snow on their mid-slopes.
Quoting wxgeek723:
I don't think Vancouver was the best place to hold the Winter Olympics anyway.


Why not? This is not normal weather for the mountains. Kind of like Seattle and the Cascades.

Olympics blog
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Jinxed us -- it's snowing, again...at rush hour -- it's all that hot air coming off of the Hill that Dan mentioned. :)

It IS still supposed to be a light snow, isn't it?

BBL.

Fear not, your snow will be very light, this is going to be a pretty quiet week weatherwise!
Quoting hydrus:
I have video footage of that one. The thing that always amazed me about that one it started out as a tiny ribbon and grew to massive proportions in short order.

Can you post the Jarrell, TX tornado video please?
Quoting Bordonaro:

Can you post the Jarrell, TX tornado video please?


Is this it?

Concerning our WU blogs, we can wishcast & try to forecast severe weather, snow/blizzwrd events, TS and hurricanes, there does not seem to be any problem. EVeryone has an idea or opinion they share. Some of us a right, others are way off.

However, when it comes to climate change, GW, AGW, it is amazing how much negative attacks occur. When the topics are concerning climate change, I disappear!
179. Thank you very much, this is the tornado went from a nothing to an F5
Dan, I think that was it's begining,it quickly turned into a monster.
This is the one in Wichita Falls Texas that I referred to last night that I was there for.



Here is a link to another. This one got my heart pumping seeing the cars under the bridge. People died that way.

Link
hey guys what is a Keyboard Filter and where do i go too turn it off or re move it and what are the words am looking for?
Quoting Tazmanian:
hey guys what is a Keyboard Filter and where do i go too turn it off or re move it and what are the words am looking for?


Taz, I think it has to do with your upgrade to Windows 7. See if this link helps. Link


This is the tornado at it's peak. Jarrell, TX (3/4 of a mile wide)
From HISTORY.COM:

A tornado in Jarrell, Texas, destroys the town and kills nearly 30 people on this day in 1997. This F5 tornado—a rating indicating it had winds of more than 260 miles per hour--was unusual in that it traveled south along the ground; nearly all tornadoes in North America move northeast.
The storm formed just north of the capital city of Austin, Texas, in the afternoon. A cold front from the northwest collided with warm air from the Gulf of Mexico, creating a supercell, a large storm cloud formation, and towering cumulus clouds. These conditions produced 22 recorded tornadoes, beginning with one in Waco at 1:37 p.m. The Waco tornado then moved south to Lake Belton, where it demolished the marina and sank many boats.
Moving through rural Texas, the Jarrell tornado hit at 3:50 p.m., just as many students were heading home from school. The twister, almost 800 feet wide, picked up so much soil that it caused a powerful mud storm. Roofs were torn off storm shelters and water was sucked out of deep wells. There were even reports of shafts of wheat impaling cattle, and other cows being picked up, their hides stripped by the winds, before being slammed to the ground.
The tornado then slowed, becoming nearly stationary as it hit the Double Creek home development. Cars in the subdivision were reduced to rubble and homes were picked up right off their foundations. The twister simply obliterated everything in its direct path, leaving no recognizable remains. The only structure to survive was a family’s homemade shelter under their house’s foundation. One item from the neighborhood was found 100 miles away. About three quarters of the residents of Double Creek were killed. One survivor reported that she had been carried off with her house as she lay in the bathtub.
Quoting PcolaDan:
This is the one in Wichita Falls Texas that I referred to last night that I was there for.



Here is a link to another. This one got my heart pumping seeing the cars under the bridge. People died that way.

Link


i have a couple that pretty much adopted me as their 3rd daughter. I hear every once in a while the stories of this. They have been in Burkburnett since they were kids.
We had a F-2 tornado pass about 1/2 mile from my house in Port Charlotte a few years back. It was moving from NE to SW, very weird. I was right on the inflow channel for the storm, you could see it sucking the tree branches upward. Scary stuff.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number FOUR
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 12-20092010
4:00 AM Réunion February 16 2010
=================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 12R (999 hPa) located at 11.1S 59.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported moving southeast at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: 2.5/2.5/D0.5/18HRS

Near Gale-Force Winds
=======================
100 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 12.2S 59.5E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
24 HRS: 13.3S 59.6E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 14.5S 59.8E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
72 HRS: 15.6S 60.2E - 80 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
========================
Convection organization has improved during the recent 6 hrs. System shows a curved band pattern now. According to the last ASCAT winds data (1712z), the windfield pattern is still asymmetric with stronger winds east of the low level circulation center.

Environmental conditions are favorable for regular intensification within the next 3 days. Beyond a northwesterly wind shear constraint is forecasted to build in the west ahead of a tropical upper tropospheric trough. System is expected to track south southeast under the influence of the mid tropospheric ridge in its northeast. Beyond, system should undergo the steering influence of the subtropical ridge as it shifts southward and is therefore expected to recurve southwestward. Last available numerical weather prediction models are in better agreement for the south southeast track, system is expected to slow down around 72 hrs, as the steering flow will change
Quoting WaterWitch11:


i have a couple that pretty much adopted me as their 3rd daughter. I hear every once in a while the stories of this. They have been in Burkburnett since they were kids.


They know exactly what I'm talking about. If I remember correctly debris landed in Burkburnett and a piece of a big golf ball display from, a driving range?, landed in Oklahoma.


St Brandon near the forecast path of 12R..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J5LLownBp4c

Can't embed it for some reason, good video on the Jarrell, TX damage.
Quoting PcolaDan:


They now exactly what I'm talking about. If I remember correctly debris landed in Burkburnett and a piece of a big golf ball display from, a driving range?, landed in Oklahoma.


i did hear about the debris landing in burk.
Quoting Bordonaro:
Concerning our WU blogs, we can wishcast & try to forecast severe weather, snow/blizzwrd events, TS and hurricanes, there does not seem to be any problem. EVeryone has an idea or opinion they share. Some of us a right, others are way off.

However, when it comes to climate change, GW, AGW, it is amazing how much negative attacks occur. When the topics are concerning climate change, I disappear!
Your the right man.
Mardi Gras or Fat Tuesday is tomorrow here.

nola.com



We gonna Party Lombardi Gras this Year
Good News!

I have just completed XtremeHurricanes.com latest production, Experience Hurricane Ida.

It is uploading now to YouTube.

Hurricane Ida was the freak November storm of 2009 that formed in the southwest Caribbean Sea and moved north into the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 2 hurricane on November 8th. Within 24 hours, it had weakened into a tropical storm due to wind shear and cool Gulf waters.

Although it was a yawner of a storm, we did our best to at least give you a glimpse into the storm anyway, better than any other chaser team was able to do.

I'll be back later when it's fully composed and ready to be viewed in HD.

Oz---
Quoting Patrap:
Mardi Gras or Fat Tuesday is tomorrow here.

nola.com



We gonna Party Lombardi Gras this Year


Lets not leave out "Fat Tuesday" here in Mobile
Snowing in Alabama confirmed by radar and surface observations:



Wow, echo, echo.

Since the blog is a bit slow, I figured, why not put up a good article on something related to Helioseismology. Somebody please check my spelling :)

The Rhythm of Our Star
Quoting charlottefl:


This is the tornado at it's peak. Jarrell, TX (3/4 of a mile wide)


Nice tornado pic!! It's about that time of year now. Can't wait for some big Florida storms to return. I haven't had a good thunderstorm since September at my house. Maybe next week for Florida.
Quoting charlottefl:
We had a F-2 tornado pass about 1/2 mile from my house in Port Charlotte a few years back. It was moving from NE to SW, very weird. I was right on the inflow channel for the storm, you could see it sucking the tree branches upward. Scary stuff.


Seabreeze collision right?
going up to NYC Feb 23-28th any 10 day models showing any snowfall???
Quoting stillwaiting:
going up to NYC Feb 23-28th any 10 day models showing any snowfall???


Someone at Blizzrd92 Blog may be able to help you. He's good and a lot of winter weather geeks hang there. (said in a good way) :)


latest GFS-MRF shows some deep cold air building in the nw lets see where this goes


here is another view
Lets hope it heads to the Olympics..
we need an artic outflow that would be real good
iam out till morn see ya all then
Hi guys what is the possiblity for future quakes in the cayman area in the next 4-8 weeks?
Boy the nor-easterner up here just died out. Go figure.
hello any one here
ok good night
Quoting CycloneOz:
Good News!

I have just completed XtremeHurricanes.com latest production, Experience Hurricane Ida.

It is uploading now to YouTube.

Hurricane Ida was the freak November storm of 2009 that formed in the southwest Caribbean Sea and moved north into the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 2 hurricane on November 8th. Within 24 hours, it had weakened into a tropical storm due to wind shear and cool Gulf waters.

Although it was a yawner of a storm, we did our best to at least give you a glimpse into the storm anyway, better than any other chaser team was able to do.

I'll be back later when it's fully composed and ready to be viewed in HD.

Oz---


I would like to see this, please get it up soon! I loved tracking that storm, it just would not die!
Quoting Ossqss:
Interesting tid bit.. :)

Lake Erie now frozen over
241-mile stretch all ice for 1st time since 1995-96


What about lake ontario? That is what I'm near.


XtremeHurricanes.com has produced another video of a storm that made landfall along the Gulf Coast of the United States. On November 8, 2009, a freak November hurricane, Hurricane Ida, was positioned in the central Gulf as a Category 2 hurricane. Within 24 hours, it weakened into a tropical storm. Hurricane Chasers Brian Osburn and Doug Morrison intercepted the storm and captured its most intense moments as it made landfall in the early morning hours of November 10th. It's wind strength was enough to defoliate the trees of Pensacola, Florida from dead leaves, leaving the city beautiful and bright green the following morning. Yes, it was not much of a storm, but XtremeHurricanes.com did the best that could be done in capturing it.
windy cold 50f it's not pretty e cent florida
Quoting Skyepony:
Rate of ocean acidification the fastest in 65 million years

Press release issued 14 February 2010

A paper published in Nature Geoscience

A new model, capable of assessing the rate at which the oceans are acidifying, suggests that changes in the carbonate chemistry of the deep ocean may exceed anything seen in the past 65 million years.

The model also predicts much higher rates of environmental change at the ocean’s surface in the future than have occurred in the past, potentially exceeding the rate at which plankton can adapt.

The research, from the University of Bristol, is reported in this week's issue of Nature Geoscience.

The team applied a model that compared current rates of ocean acidification with the greenhouse event at the Paleocene-Eocene boundary, about 55 million years ago when surface ocean temperatures rose by around 5-6°C over a few thousand years. During this event, no catastrophe is seen in surface ecosystems, such as plankton, yet bottom-dwelling organisms in the deep ocean experienced a major extinction..

it goes on..

Daily Mangle
— group @ 15 February 2010

Yesterday, the Daily Mail of the UK published a predictably inaccurate article entitled “Climategate U-turn as scientist at centre of row admits: There has been no global warming since 1995″.

The title itself is a distortion of what Jones actually said in an interview with the BBC. What Jones actually said is that, while the globe has nominally warmed since 1995, it is difficult to establish the statistical significance of that warming given the short nature of the time interval (1995-present) involved. The warming trend consequently doesn’t quite achieve statistical significance. But it is extremely difficult to establish a statistically significant trend over a time interval as short as 15 years–a point we have made countless times at RealClimate. It is also worth noting that the CRU record indicates slightly less warming than other global temperature estimates such as the GISS record.

The article also incorrectly equates instrumental surface temperature data that Jones and CRU have assembled to estimate the modern surface temperature trends with paleoclimate data used to estimate temperatures in past centuries, falsely asserting that the former “has been used to produce the ‘hockey stick graph’”.

Finally, the article intentionally distorts comments that Jones made about the so-called “Medieval Warm Period”. Jones stated in his BBC interview that “There is much debate over whether the Medieval Warm Period was global in extent or not. The MWP is most clearly expressed in parts of North America, the North Atlantic and Europe and parts of Asia” and that “For it to be global in extent, the MWP would need to be seen clearly in more records from the tropical regions and the Southern hemisphere. There are very few palaeoclimatic records for these latter two regions.”

These are statements with which we entirely agree, and they are moreover fully consistent with the conclusions of the most recent IPCC report, and the numerous peer-reviewed publications on this issue since. Those conclusions are that recent Northern Hemisphere warming is likely unprecedented in at least a millennium (at least 1300 years, in fact), and that evidence in the Southern Hemisphere is currently too sparse for confident conclusions. Mann et al in fact drew those same conclusions in their most recent work on this problem (PNAS, 2008).

Unfortunately, these kinds of distortions are all too common in the press nowadays and so we must all be prepared to respond to those journalists and editors who confuse the public with such inaccuracies.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2010/02/daily-mangle/
221. IKE
29.3 here this morning...low so far.

Boy, that sure was a busted snow forecast yesterday morning by the pro's at the NWS.
Quoting IKE:
29.3 here this morning...low so far.

Boy, that sure was a busted snow forecast yesterday morning by the pro's at the NWS.


This is "BUST DAY"...snow forecast, release of Hurricane Ida video...

I'm going to HOOTERS!
223. IKE
Quoting CycloneOz:


This is "BUST DAY"...snow forecast, release of Hurricane Ida video...

I'm going to HOOTERS!


Enjoy...down to 28.9 for a low. Excellent radiational cooling.
anyone got there pre season #'s for the upcoming season? pretty much a crap shoot in my opinion. it all depends on this nino . 10 cyclones but a blockbuster s. florida hit
Quoting leftovers:
anyone got there pre season #'s for the upcoming season pretty much a crap shoot in my opinion it all depends on this nino 10 but a blockbuster s. florida hit


I'm rooting for 1-1-1
226. IKE
I'll go with....

13
7
4......

Morning Ike, You got me on the lows this morning.
228. IKE
Low was 28.6...sun up now.

Good morning.
So it was a big bust for your snow event yesterday. We had just a couple of sprinkles here.
230. IKE
Quoting severstorm:
So it was a big bust for your snow event yesterday. We had just a couple of sprinkles here.


I've been under a winter storm warning and a winter weather advisory, in the last 4 days, and had a trace of measurable snow.

That looks like the end of the snow chances this winter. Warmer weather is on the way by this weekend:)
Has everyone seen how boring Ida was? LOL...it was fun hanging out with PensacolaDoug, though..
Yep same here. Started out as a winter storm watch and now a winter advisory with only 1-3" by days end. Man this truly sucks for snow this year. Ohwell there is always next year.
Boy winter is coming to an end fast. No major storms on the horizon forecasted.
First school day since the 4th in Fairfax
I heard this morning that new england states were going to get 6-10 inches out of this storm.
234. Were do they put all that snow?
Quoting severstorm:
I heard this morning that new england states were going to get 6-10 inches out of this storm.


Maybe if you live right along the coastline.
pretty active huh i have been saying that s.florida blockbuster since andrew so thats alot of wrong forecast
Quoting leftovers:
anyone got there pre season #'s for the upcoming season? pretty much a crap shoot in my opinion. it all depends on this nino . 10 cyclones but a blockbuster s. florida hit


It looks as if we might be in a similiar pattern to what we had in the 60's and if this is the case then Florida will have a rough year. In the 60's a lot of the old timers said that we had cold winters followed by nasty hurricanes in the summer. Take a look at JB's blog below and look at the similiar temp profiles from now and the 60's.

http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-demand.asp?video=66605873001&channel=VBLOG_BASTARDI&title=The
Quoting leftovers:
pretty active huh i have been saying that s.florida blockbuster since andrew so thats alot of wrong forecast


15 total storms 8 hurricanes with 4 major. That's my prediction.
Morning Brian! Ida was a bust for P'cola, just as all three of our predicted snowfalls have been this season. I don't really mind when tropical systems bust. I've seen what happens when they don't! I can't ever remember when we had forecasts for 3 seperate snowfalls in one winter. Too bad it didn't happen.
Quoting CycloneOz:


XtremeHurricanes.com has produced another video of a storm that made landfall along the Gulf Coast of the United States. On November 8, 2009, a freak November hurricane, Hurricane Ida, was positioned in the central Gulf as a Category 2 hurricane. Within 24 hours, it weakened into a tropical storm. Hurricane Chasers Brian Osburn and Doug Morrison intercepted the storm and captured its most intense moments as it made landfall in the early morning hours of November 10th. It's wind strength was enough to defoliate the trees of Pensacola, Florida from dead leaves, leaving the city beautiful and bright green the following morning. Yes, it was not much of a storm, but XtremeHurricanes.com did the best that could be done in capturing it.


That Dolly video is absolutly amazing!!
Quoting Jeff9641:


15 total storms 8 hurricanes with 4 major. That's my prediction.
we may have a shot at making it all the way to scary shary that would be 18
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we may have a shot at making it all the way to scary shary that would be 18


It could. El-Nino might be gone by May.
Quoting CycloneOz:


XtremeHurricanes.com has produced another video of a storm that made landfall along the Gulf Coast of the United States. On November 8, 2009, a freak November hurricane, Hurricane Ida, was positioned in the central Gulf as a Category 2 hurricane. Within 24 hours, it weakened into a tropical storm. Hurricane Chasers Brian Osburn and Doug Morrison intercepted the storm and captured its most intense moments as it made landfall in the early morning hours of November 10th. It's wind strength was enough to defoliate the trees of Pensacola, Florida from dead leaves, leaving the city beautiful and bright green the following morning. Yes, it was not much of a storm, but XtremeHurricanes.com did the best that could be done in capturing it.


I hope you don't have any CONUS intercepts this year.

at the 13min mark, you'll see me waving to everyone here.

Quoting Ossqss:
Interesting tid bit.. :)

Lake Erie now frozen over
241-mile stretch all ice for 1st time since 1995-96


there is an interrsting book that was a bestseller not too long ago "The Frozen Thames". It is a novel based on historical data of every time in recorded history the Thames river has been frozen solid. I wish some meterologist would look at it and coordinate the dates with weather patterns. its an awesome book. Talks about accounts of flocks of birds instantly freezing and dropping to the ground frozen solid.
A nice nippy 31 degrees F this morning here in Panama City…winds are 5 to 15 making it quite difficult to get motivated to leave the house this morning…more coffee…more coffee. I, for one, will be most happy to see a return to normal temps for this time of year.

On the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast…I have only seen Dr. Grays forecast…looks active at this point, but I feel it is far to early to give anything close to a reasonably accurate forecast, with El Nino still in play at this point.

Dr. Grays Dec. ’09 Forecast:
Named Storms: 11-16
Hurricanes: 6-8
Major: 3-5

Very Respectfully,

Jon
Indonesian earthquake felt in Darwin

* From: AAP
* February 16


AN earthquake far off the north-west Australian coast rattled walls, windows and crockery in Darwin this morning but caused no damage.

The earthquake, of magnitude 6.1, occurred in the Banda Sea at a distance which would normally make it pass unnoticed on the Australian mainland.

Geoscience Australia spokesman Chris Thompson said the tremor was felt in northern Australia because of the unusual undersea geology of the region.

Scientists believe the orientation of the fault-lines under the Banda Sea allows seismic waves to travel very efficiently towards Australia.

Other earthquakes in this region have made themselves felt in Darwin. In 2005 Darwin residents felt the effects of a 7.1 magnitude quake some 660 kilometres away.

Mr Thompson said the earthquake this morning occurred at 8.51am (AEDT).

"We got some 20-odd reports from this morning. It was pretty widely felt," he said.
There were no reports of damage.

"We wouldn't expect any either from this sort of event. It is just not large enough to cause that strong a shaking."
Tonga cleans up after cyclone
New Zealand correspondent Kerri Ritchie, Tuesday February 16

There has been extensive damage in Tonga after the Pacific Island nation was battered by Cyclone Rene overnight.

A massive clean-up is underway this morning, after the capital Nuku'alofa on the main island of Tongatapu was battered by torrential rain and winds of up to 230 kilometres per hour.

Mango and coconut crops were destroyed by the cyclone, while power lines and trees were brought down.

Tongan police commander Chris Kelley says it was fortunate no one was killed or injured.

"Considerable damage to buildings, roofs have been ripped off, windows blown out," he said.

"We evacuated about 25 families overnight just to ensure they weren't affected by the flooding."

Mr Kelley says authorities will fly over the area to assess the damage.

"We've had widespread damage here to crops and vegetation, there's been considerable damage to buildings," he said.

"Power has been out all night. Whether or not it is long-lasting remains to be seen, but it has certainly been extensive overnight."

The New Zealand Met Service says the cyclone is now moving further south.

- ABC
Quoting Jeff9641:


That Dolly video is absolutly amazing!!


Yeah...there's a stark difference between that video and all the other night storms.

During Hurricane Ike, another night storm, I kept watching and waiting for that giant wall of water to sweep over the sea wall. I really wanted to "go into the light" that was lighting up the Mermaid Pier, but the call from my Mom telling me that everyone was going to die in my "sheltered area," kept me put.

Dolly taught me a lesson, one that I practiced in Ike. However, had I "been crazy enough" to move closer to shore, I would've got video of that pier being torn apart.
Quoting AussieStorm:


I hope you don't have any CONUS intercepts this year.


Well, if I don't, then there won't be any chasing, as I'm not going to chase in a foreign country this year.
I'm already working on my final "experience" video of last year...Hurricane Jimena.

During that chase, I got some really good footage. It should be the best of 2009.
Quoting CycloneOz:


Yeah...there's a stark difference between that video and all the other night storms.

During Hurricane Ike, another night storm, I kept watching and waiting for that giant wall of water to sweep over the sea wall. I really wanted to "go into the light" that was lighting up the Mermaid Pier, but the call from my Mom telling me that everyone was going to die in my "sheltered area," kept me put.

Dolly taught me a lesson, one that I practiced in Ike. However, had I "been crazy enough" to move closer to shore, I would've got video of that pier being torn apart.

One of my dreams is to be in the eye of a Hurricane/Cyclone/Typhoon.
Quoting AussieStorm:

One of my dreams is to be in the eye of a Hurricane/Cyclone/Typhoon.


For HD video, that's "the money shot."

So far, to my knowledge...the prize is still out there waiting to be claimed.

Ideally, we're talking about an eyewall no wider than 5-10 miles across at landfall...perfectly symmetrical with very little if any cloudiness within the eye.
255. RMCF
Quoting AussieStorm:

One of my dreams is to be in the eye of a Hurricane/Cyclone/Typhoon.

till you are actually in it grab your ankles and kiss your ? not fun and when you think it has peaked out it has a way of getting worse than you imagined.
Quoting AussieStorm:

One of my dreams is to be in the eye of a Hurricane/Cyclone/Typhoon.


Ike's eye was spooky. Complete calm with overhead clouds that were being brilliantly lit up by a full moon. It was like looking up into a bowl of milky water. Seeing all the tropical bird flocks flying inside it was beyond real.
Quoting RMCF:

till you are actually in it grab your ankles and kiss your ? not fun and when you think it has peaked out it has a way of getting worse than you imagined.

I have seen video's on Nat Geo and Discovery Channel of what its like in the very intense part of the eye wall just before the eye. If i am there with someone that knows what they are doing, I am sure i will be fine. Even if i'm in a parking lot.

Goodnight all
Quoting AussieStorm:

I have seen video's on Nat Geo and Discovery Channel of what its like in the very intense part of the eye wall just before the eye. If i am there with someone that knows what they are doing, I am sure i will be fine. Even if i'm in a parking lot.

Goodnight all


Agreed.

BTW...Ossgss is into "designing" hurricane-proof suits. Have you seen any of them? They're a riot!
259. RMCF
Quoting AussieStorm:

I have seen video's on Nat Geo and Discovery Channel of what its like in the very intense part of the eye wall just before the eye. If i am there with someone that knows what they are doing, I am sure i will be fine. Even if i'm in a parking lot.

Goodnight all

parking garage is your best bet and find high ground check elevation and have fun.
Finally, the Dallas-Ft Worth Metroplex, TX will have near or above normal temps for the first time since 2/5/10.

So far for Feb 2010, we are exactly 9F below normal as of yesterday.
i was in the eye of a hurricane as a child. we all went out onto the porch and the sun was shining and the yard was full of downed moss and limbs and debris. we just stood there waiting for it to pass and when it did, moss and limbs started rolling across the yard, the rain started and then an eery roar, and less than a mile from our house a tornado came ashore that was embedded in the eye wall and "mowed" half the trees in town down at the same level about 10 ft off the ground. It also sent 2 by 4 boards thru a warehouse wall and through the trunk of a large palm tree. There were altogether 6 tornadoes i think in the eye wall. and it was very dark.
Quoting Bordonaro:
Finally, the Dallas-Ft Worth Metroplex, TX will have near or above normal temps for the first time since 2/5/10.

So far for Feb 2010, we are exactly 9F below normal as of yesterday.
Forecast for Dallas/Fort Worth.


Don't get used to it. The models are forecasting an arctic onslaught next week for the eastern and central conus. Thankfully, it appears to be our last real shot for the Winter!

According to Joe Lumberg, it'll be just shy of(and so far not as long as) the early January outbreak. Though it looks to be the coldest for this month.
G'morn WU.

Happy Mardi Gras!

A bit cold with the north wind coming off Lake P. Sitting in the neutral ground (median to most of you) of Severn in Metairie awaiting Argus (the first of 3 consecutive parades). Kiddies are dealing with the cold well...not even complaining, though the guy near us with about 5000 super bouncy balls being randomly tossed in the air a few at a time is helping immensely.

(Yes, Metairie daytime parades are kid friendly-the kids outnumber the adults 2 to 1 for these.)
Quoting atmoaggie:
G'morn WU.

Happy Mardi Gras!

A bit cold with the north wind coming off Lake P. Sitting in the neutral ground (median to most of you) of Severn in Metairie awaiting Argus (the first of 3 consecutive parades). Kiddies are dealing with the cold well...not even complaining, though the guy near us with about 5000 super bouncy balls being randomly tossed in the air a few at a time is helping immensely.

(Yes, Metairie daytime parades are kid friendly-the kids outnumber the adults 2 to 1 for these.)


For the record, I envy you going to a Mardi Gras parade. My fiancee wanted to take me this year, but buying a house takes precedence. Next year, though... hehe
Quoting weatherbro:


Don't get used to it. The models are forecasting an arctic onslaught next week for the eastern and central conus. Thankfully, it appears to be our last real shot for the Winter!

According to Joe Lumberg, it'll be just shy of(and so far not as long as) the early January outbreak. Though it looks to be the coldest for this month.
Quoting Bordonaro:
Finally, the Dallas-Ft Worth Metroplex, TX will have near or above normal temps for the first time since 2/5/10.

So far for Feb 2010, we are exactly 9F below normal as of yesterday.


Quoting CycloneOz:


Agreed.

BTW...Ossgss is into "designing" hurricane-proof suits. Have you seen any of them? They're a riot!


Still in Beta on this one Oz :)

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Oh joy let the deep south freeze continue.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



It looks like the flow is becoming more zonal, and the upper midwest is in for a deep freeze.
Quoting jeffs713:

It looks like the flow is becoming more zonal, and the upper midwest is in for a deep freeze.


You can see -24*F and -26*F on the flow coming out of Canada and moves into the Montana, ND, SD region and then down from there.

You could see even colder temps than the model is showing if the cold air flows more southerly.
Post #267 LOL!!! IS that for real?
Quoting StormChaser81:


Oh joy let the deep south freeze continue.
no won't make it down to gulf coast sun is getting warmer now as the great push north ramps up we gain about 2 and half mins of daylight every day from here till spring then it picks up even faster after that further more we got two weeks to go till time goes ahead first sunday of march
273. beell
.
my snow pics from friday in nw fla :)
Link

Link

Link
Quoting Ossqss:


Still in Beta on this one Oz :)



Classic! LOL! :D
Quoting twhcracker:
my snow pics from friday in nw fla :)
Link

Link

Link


Had to look up where Fountain was, had never heard of it. Nice pictures. Were those up towards Dothan?
Quoting StormChaser81:


You can see -24*F and -26*F on the flow coming out of Canada and moves into the Montana, ND, SD region and then down from there.

You could see even colder temps than the model is showing if the cold air flows more southerly.

Yep, but the really cold air never makes it south of KS/OK, before pulling back north.

Welcome to spring?
Quoting jeffs713:

It looks like the flow is becoming more zonal, and the upper midwest is in for a deep freeze.


BRING ON THE COLD!

We've been having a mild winter, which isn't terrible, but anything to cool off the western Great Lakes would be... great!

The south shore of Lake Superior just received 17.5" of lake-enhanced snow Sunday evening, and I was caught by surprise driving in a whiteout! Besides giving my shovel, snowblower, and backside a rest, it would be nice to limit some evaporation from the lakes and aid in the recent low water-level rebounds.

Last year, I reached -20°F a couple times, which is completely normal up here. This year the coldest has only been -7°.
Global Warming Professor Admits to Unorganized Data and More

Updated: Tuesday, 16 Feb 2010, 12:18 PM EST
Published : Tuesday, 16 Feb 2010, 8:15 PM EST

(NewsCore) – Global warming is continually the topic of heated debate and endless conversation. But now Professor Phil Jones has openly admitted that global warming is not as “statistically significant” as currently believed according to The Daily Mail .

Jones, whose data is crucial to global warming research, admitted in a BBC interview on Saturday about many “mistakes” he has suppressed for 15 years.

For one, his record keeping is "not as good as it should be." Much of the data that supports the famous “hockey stick graphs,” used by advocates of the global warming theory, has been lost.

Colleagues say the reason he has refused to open up about his research in recent years is because there isn’t any.

Jones also admitted that over the past 15 years, very little global warming has taken place reports the Daily Mail . In fact, the difference in global warming rates within the last 150 years is barely noticeable.

The most startling find, however, is that today’s shift in climate temperatures may not be related to man-made activity.

According to Jones, between 800 and 1300 A.D., temperatures were actually warmer than they are now.

Known was the “Medieval Warm Period,” this supports the idea that global warming is not so much man-made as it is naturally occurring.
***This is a test of the Portlight Relief Broadcasting System***

Hey, Y'all!! Did you know that a 1-lb bag of rice makes TEN servings? That 10 lbs of rice can feed up to 100 people?? Pretty cool, right?!

BUT WAIT...this is even cooler: if you donate $50 (or more) to Portlight's Food Voyage, your name will be added to a flag that will accompany our 10,000 pounds of rice to Haiti, on the Schooner Liberty!! AND THEN...the flag will fly over our base camp at Quisqueya University in Port-au-Prince!!

NOW...How COOL is THAT?!?!

Raise your cool factor - donate to Portlight!!

Thanks to everyone for your support!!!

***We now return you to your regularly scheduled programming***
281. XLR8
Pics of the snow at my house in Fannin Mississippi on 02/12/10. The snow started around 9:30 pm on 02/11/10 and did not stop till 2 pm on 02/12/10. I hope you enjoy.

Link



Link

Link
282. XLR8
Oops wanted those to be links I will have to work on that..LOL
Quoting TampaFLUSA:
Global Warming Professor Admits to Unorganized Data and More


RoseGate becomes DailyMailGate: Error-riddled articles and false statements destroy Daily Mail’s credibilty
Two top climate scientists and the NSIDC accuse Daily Mail of misquoting and misrepresenting them or their work.

http://climateprogress.org/2010/02/15/rosegate-dailymail-error-riddled-articles-misquote-credibilit y-science/


Daily Mangle

Yesterday, the Daily Mail of the UK published a predictably inaccurate article entitled “Climategate U-turn as scientist at centre of row admits: There has been no global warming since 1995″.

The title itself is a distortion of what Jones actually said in an interview with the BBC.

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2010/02/daily-mangle/
Quoting CycloneOz:


XtremeHurricanes.com has produced another video of a storm that made landfall along the Gulf Coast of the United States. On November 8, 2009, a freak November hurricane, Hurricane Ida, was positioned in the central Gulf as a Category 2 hurricane. Within 24 hours, it weakened into a tropical storm. Hurricane Chasers Brian Osburn and Doug Morrison intercepted the storm and captured its most intense moments as it made landfall in the early morning hours of November 10th. It's wind strength was enough to defoliate the trees of Pensacola, Florida from dead leaves, leaving the city beautiful and bright green the following morning. Yes, it was not much of a storm, but XtremeHurricanes.com did the best that could be done in capturing it.



Good effort, but like i thought, very boring storm in the states. I wish i had footage of if when it was over central america and just would not weaken
Quoting winter123:



Good effort, but like i thought, very boring storm in the states. I wish i had footage of if when it was over central america and just would not weaken


Yeah, we did our best. Snapping trees was all we would get, and we didn't even get that.
Quoting weatherbro:


Don't get used to it. The models are forecasting an arctic onslaught next week for the eastern and central conus. Thankfully, it appears to be our last real shot for the Winter!

According to Joe Lumberg, it'll be just shy of(and so far not as long as) the early January outbreak. Though it looks to be the coldest for this month.


Just wondering if you have a link to this? If so can you post it here online?
Quoting winter123:



Good effort, but like i thought, very boring storm in the states. I wish i had footage of if when it was over central america and just would not weaken


Although when you listen to the storm with Bose headphones, it'll knock you right out asleep! :)

May try it tonight when going to bed! :)
Quoting 47n91w:


BRING ON THE COLD!

We've been having a mild winter, which isn't terrible, but anything to cool off the western Great Lakes would be... great!

The south shore of Lake Superior just received 17.5" of lake-enhanced snow Sunday evening, and I was caught by surprise driving in a whiteout! Besides giving my shovel, snowblower, and backside a rest, it would be nice to limit some evaporation from the lakes and aid in the recent low water-level rebounds.

Last year, I reached -20°F a couple times, which is completely normal up here. This year the coldest has only been -7°.


Must be friggin nice. We haven't seen that kind of snow since christmas.
Quoting PcolaDan:


Had to look up where Fountain was, had never heard of it. Nice pictures. Were those up towards Dothan?


yes! the one in the car was right before the state line, the one of me and my friend was at that first rest area after you cross ala line on 231 and the one with accumulation was at entrance to jeffers pet supply parking lot.
Some casual reading if ya like or a recent presentation :)

Polynomial Cointegration Tests of the Anthropogenic
Theory of Global Warming


This page allows you to pick the method of viewing the presentation from the AGU. It is not the same subject as the paper above. It is quite interesting and long....


U34A Consequences of an Unusually Long and Deep Solar Minimum I
http://www.startribune.com/weather/84400142.html?elr=KArks:DCiUBDEaLDyUiacyKUU

Look at this link and please explain to me how this will affect the global warming induced increased lake effect snow. According to alarmists part of the proble this winter is that there are increased temperatures in the Lakes providing more fuel for lake effect snow.

Just my Man Made global warming debunking two cents for today.
Quoting 47n91w:


BRING ON THE COLD!

We've been having a mild winter, which isn't terrible, but anything to cool off the western Great Lakes would be... great!

The south shore of Lake Superior just received 17.5" of lake-enhanced snow Sunday evening, and I was caught by surprise driving in a whiteout! Besides giving my shovel, snowblower, and backside a rest, it would be nice to limit some evaporation from the lakes and aid in the recent low water-level rebounds.

Last year, I reached -20°F a couple times, which is completely normal up here. This year the coldest has only been -7°.


What's the coldest you've ever seen up there? Our all time record cold is +6
Seriously now, Yes we experienced global warming, no we did not cause it, yes most scientist know that, yes politicians bribed most of those scientist, yes politicians and especially Al Gore are cashing in on this antropogenic global warming theory, yes we will end up paying not only more taxes du to this theory, but increase food, fuel, and many other product prices due to Cap and trade and many other regulations. Yes Golbal warming recently experienced was caused by a solar maximum and for the past years we have been experiencing a solar minimum responsible for the coolins and yes, the warming will come back again once the next solar cycle starts and bring us to a new solar maximum maybe in 2011 or 2012. Governments should quiet trying to steal a buck and try to find soulutions to mitigate the advese effects (if any) of SOLAR CAUSED global warming. Mars also experienced warming as well as the rest of the planets in the solar system. How do you explain that to the nation? will you blame my SUV for that? or the rovers? Please get serious.
It's deja vu all over again...
-----Yogi Berra
hi guys what going on today
something has got me thinking badly
watch and learn why
Link
I dont make it rain....I think thats global warming! suey! suey! Now watch me shut this thing... down!
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number SEVEN
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE GELANE (12-20092010)
22:00 PM Réunion February 16 2010
=================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Gelane (987 hPa) located at 12.9S 60.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The storm is reported moving southeast at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: 3.5/3.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Gale-Force Winds
================
20 NM from the center

Near Gale-Force Winds
=======================
40 NM from the center extending up to 90 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 13.8S 60.7E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 14.4S 60.8E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
48 HRS: 15.4S 61.1E - 80 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
72 HRS: 16.9S 61.0E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
========================
WINDSAT 37ghz at 1355z shows an almost closed low level eye and the N-16 1417z 85ghz swath that this feature is also consolidated also on upper level. GELANE should keep on tracking slowly southeastward than southward for the next 72 hrs as the near equatorial ridge is progressively balanced by the subtropical ridge located to the south.

Available numerical weather prediction models show a large spread of tracks and variations about chronology. GFDN is now the only recent available numerical weather prediction model that forecast a southeastward track along the whole period. On the other hand, ECMWF, Aladin-Reunion, ARPEGE and now joinged by the American numerical weather prediction NOGAPS. All suggest a southward then southwestward track.

Present forecast remains in the philosophy of previous advisories and is close to the tracks followed by this models. Therefore, there is a lower than usual confidence in the forecast track.

Conditions remain favorable for regular intensification for the next 2-3 days. Beyond, an upper level trough should take place between Madagascar and Réunion and according to the present forecast track should induce increasing northwesterly shear.
watch the vid stop it at 1:16 not before and not after then tell me what you guys think
Quoting CaneHunter031472:the warming will come back again

NOAA: Warmest January in both satellite records
Warming is +0.18°C (.32°F) decade


http://climateprogress.org/2010/02/16/noaa-warmest-january-on-record-in-both-satellite-records/
6.2 scale earthquake shakes eastern Indonesia
The U.S Geological Survey says a strong magnitude 6.2 earthquake has rattled eastern Indonesia. There are no immediate reports of casualties or damage.
http://beta.thehindu.com/news/international/article107318.ece
Forecast for next 10 days in central NY state. Low 20, High 32, Snow showers. YAWN.
Quoting TampaTom:
It's deja vu all over again...
-----Yogi Berra


The more things change, the more they remain the same
"plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose"
- Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
6.2 scale earthquake shakes eastern Indonesia
The U.S Geological Survey says a strong magnitude 6.2 earthquake has rattled eastern Indonesia. There are no immediate reports of casualties or damage.
http://beta.thehindu.com/news/international/article107318.ece


Appreciate the info, the headline, the source -- and the brevity -- thank you!

Good afternoon, all...and I'm out again for now.
A quiet weather week this week for the CONUS. However we will probably pay for this next week, as both branches of the Jet Stream will be more active next week.

A snipet of the NWS Dallas-Ft Worth, TX Area Forecast Discussion for 2:24AM CST today:

A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS IN THE DAYS 5-8 PD WITH DEEP CUT-OFF
UPPER LOW MEANDERING JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. A SHORTWAVE DROPS SEWD
IN POLAR BRANCH THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH A SHALLOW FRONTAL PUSH NEXT
WEEKEND. LOW CHANCES OF RAIN FOR NOW BY SUN/SUN NIGHT WITH
INSTABILITY LOOKING MEAGER AND MAINLY ELEVATED...WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ARRIVING MONDAY.

WITH SUCH DISCREPANCIES WITH COMPLEX PATTERN IN THE FAR EXTENDED...
MANY ADJUSTMENTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE COMING DAYS AND WILL FINE
TUNE AS MED RANGE COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT NEXT WEEKEND/BEYOND.

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


What's the coldest you've ever seen up there? Our all time record cold is +6


Bear with me:

I remember a storm when I was a teenager that I will never forget. February of 1996 brought an all-time low temperature of -60°F to Minnesota and -55°F to Wisconsin. Sixty miles east of the Wisconsin record location, I remember staring at the huge dial thermometer hanging off the north side of my parent's house and seeing -50°F. A ice storm snapped off the power poles and a blizzard covered everything with six foot drifts before the extreme arctic outbreak. The gas line ruptured, no power for a week, and bitter cold temperatures and wind... I remember my family duct taping blankets over the doors and huddling around the back-up wood stove in the basement. I can't confirm -50°F, and it wasn't a digital thermometer in an optimal location, but it was darn cold.

I'm at work and I'd have to look back in my weather station's files to see what the coldest temperature I've measured is. And now that you've asked, I'm curious myself. Off the top of my head, I know one of the coldest is -29.3°F in December 2004. I'll double check when I get home tonight and can shoot you a WU/mail if you'd like.

As an anecdote, I inherited my grandfather's daily weather journals from 1974 until 1994. They were mainly used to keep an eye on his retirement vegetable garden but he often wrote down tidbits from the news or local weather phenomenon. I'll have to go back and find the page, but I remember a note he jotted down that read something along the lines of 'windchill of -70°F at radio station' [in town]. Of course, we have an improved windchill equation now, but YIKES!!
Conditions in "Thawing Arlington, TX" as of 2 PM CST today from my backyard:

Sunny
Temp-50F
R/H-30%
DP-20F
Winds-NW 7 MPH G 14 MPH
Baro Pr-30.26" and rising

Beats the heck out of the 14" of snow we had last Thursday 2/11/10:

Last Friday 2/12/10:
#306. That sounds about right, my friend. WI and MN had a "killer cold snap" back in 1996, with -50 to -60F air temps reported in several locations. Link below discussing -60F in Tower, MN during the 1996 Cold Snap:

Link
309.

Oz, is that really necessary right now? We just finished a nice hour or two without a GW/CC post...
Quoting CycloneOz:


Stirring the pot is FUN!!!
Quoting jeffs713:
309.

Oz, is that really necessary right now? We just finished a nice hour or two without a GW/CC post...


No, I don't want to hear another GW argument, please!
Quoting Bordonaro:


No, I don't want to hear another GW argument, please!

Nor do I. Its getting old.

It is well past the time of "beating a dead horse"... more like "beating the area where the dead horse used to be".
Quoting jeffs713:

Nor do I. Its getting old.

It is well past the time of "beating a dead horse"... more like "beating the area where the dead horse used to be".

I like these animated smiley's!!!

Quoting Bordonaro:
A quiet weather week this week for the CONUS. However we will probably pay for this next week, as both branches of the Jet Stream will be more active next week.

A snipet of the NWS Dallas-Ft Worth, TX Area Forecast Discussion for 2:24AM CST today:

A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS IN THE DAYS 5-8 PD WITH DEEP CUT-OFF
UPPER LOW MEANDERING JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. A SHORTWAVE DROPS SEWD
IN POLAR BRANCH THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH A SHALLOW FRONTAL PUSH NEXT
WEEKEND. LOW CHANCES OF RAIN FOR NOW BY SUN/SUN NIGHT WITH
INSTABILITY LOOKING MEAGER AND MAINLY ELEVATED...WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ARRIVING MONDAY.

WITH SUCH DISCREPANCIES WITH COMPLEX PATTERN IN THE FAR EXTENDED...
MANY ADJUSTMENTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE COMING DAYS AND WILL FINE
TUNE AS MED RANGE COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT NEXT WEEKEND/BEYOND.



i just saw the system in pacific looks impressive. it's beautiful here:

W6HN Healdsburg
Last Update on 16 Feb 12:24 PST



68°F
(20°C)
Humidity: 55 %
Wind Speed: calm
Barometer: 30.01 in (N/A mb)
Dewpoint: 51°F (11°C)
Heat Index: 77°F (25°C)
Visibility: Miles
Quoting CycloneOz:
<

Quoting Bordonaro:

I like these animated smiley's!!!


OMG... those are AWESOME. (and perfect for the topic at hand)
It's all hooked up..As of now KFLMELBO48 is 24/7 on WeatherUnderground. I'm testing this WeatherPlug a great little computer (under the pony) that hooks to a Personal Weather Station so you can upload your data to WeatherUnderground & other places 24hrs/7days a week using the electricity of a nightlight (5 watts) instead of a computer. It comes with a neat attachment to plug right up against the wall (not shown). Should be available from RainmanWeather in the near future.



As you can see I got windy cool today..
I just found my old Hurricane Andrew home video and transferred it to DVD. Good shots of Cutler Ridge after the storm, gonna try to upload it tonight
61.5? We haven't hit 50 yet!
2010 Olympics: No Snow Means Challenge for Winter Athletes
The run at Cyprus Mountain looks like it's layered with snow, moguls carved into the base. But looks are deceiving, especially if you're coming down that hill.
Slush, rain and fog combine to make difficult terrain for athletes.

U.S. skier Hannah Kearney made a startling discovery on her high stakes run, the gold medal hanging in the balance.

"I heard a crunch," Kearney said, "and you can feel it grab the bottom of my ski. A simple hole in the bottom of your ski, that can never be good."

The crunch she felt was one of the rocks cutting through the melting snow. The hole punched through just as she was skiing to the starting line. That's how sparse the snow was.

"I didn't look, and I didn't tell anyone," Kearney said, because she knew the final run was coming.

She would ski down the mountain on that damaged ski and win the gold anyway.

While it might look like there's plenty of snow for the Olympians to work with, the reality is far different -- grass and mud everywhere you look. The problem is so bad, organizers have had to truck in the snow. They scoop it up from one mountaintop and replace the lost snowpack with bales of hay.

Making snow isn't even possible, because the Vancouver area had the warmest January on record, and the rain that's fallen 10 of the last 14 days makes the problem even worse. Some are now dubbing it the "Spring Olympics."

The adverse weather conditions in Vancouver are testing many of the athletes.

Snowboarders who began competing today have called the conditions "horrible." Eight-thousand spectators were told they can't watch from the sidelines of the course, for fear they would sink to their knees in mud.

Comedian Stephen Colbert quipped, "On future winter Olympic host city applications, you might want to add the question, 'Does it snow there?'"

For Vancouver during these games, the answer is unfortunately no.
http://abcnews.go.com/WN/olympics-2010-snow-vancouver/story?id=9845612
Quoting Skyepony:
It's all hooked up..As of now KFLMELBO48 is 24/7 on WeatherUnderground. I'm testing this WeatherPlug a great little computer (under the pony) that hooks to a Personal Weather Station so you can upload your data to WeatherUnderground & other places 24hrs/7days a week using the electricity of a nightlight (5 watts) instead of a computer. It comes with a neat attachment to plug right up against the wall (not shown). Should be available from RainmanWeather in the near future.



As you can see I got windy cool today..

That is awesome. I plan on setting up a PWS in the back yard if the other half lets me... this would definitely help "sell" the idea, too. (the cost of the PWS doesn't help my cause, though)
Quoting WaterWitch11:


i just saw the system in pacific looks impressive. it's beautiful here:

W6HN Healdsburg
Last Update on 16 Feb 12:24 PST



68°F
(20°C)
Humidity: 55 %
Wind Speed: calm
Barometer: 30.01 in (N/A mb)
Dewpoint: 51°F (11°C)
Heat Index: 77°F (25°C)
Visibility: Miles


You mean this mean Upper Level Low and trough digging down towards Hawaii??
Quoting jeffs713:

That is awesome. I plan on setting up a PWS in the back yard if the other half lets me... this would definitely help "sell" the idea, too. (the cost of the PWS doesn't help my cause, though)


Have you looked at the ProWeatherStation?

http://proweatherstation.com/

Still only $158 - PensacolaDoug likes his alot.
jeffs~ there is some pretty cheap stations. If your interested in my old La Crosse base cheap to build off of (rain gauge may still be good too) WUndermail me. Sounded like WeatherPlug would be reasonalble & pay for itself eventually in powerbill savings. I can go on extended vacations & not worry about data getting too full on the base & losing some too.
Quoting CycloneOz:


Have you looked at the ProWeatherStation?

http://proweatherstation.com/

Still only $158 - PensacolaDoug likes his alot.


You can also go to costco or SAMS and they have professional weather stations for $60 and up.
Interesting -- I've never seen a single post entirely deleted (#309) without the poster getting banned for at least the day.

Of course, I haven't been around all that long.

Oz, how'd you do that, or get away with that? :)

I despise the nasty AGW/CC debates...and yet...I can't help it, I wonder what I missed...
Quoting CycloneOz:


Have you looked at the ProWeatherStation?

http://proweatherstation.com/

Still only $158 - PensacolaDoug likes his alot.


You have mail OZ.
OZ that is the same as my Tycon. Really like, looks way more durable then my old La Crosse. I got mine even cheaper here.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Interesting -- I've never seen a single post entirely deleted (#309) without the poster getting banned for at least the day.

Of course, I haven't been around all that long.

Oz, how'd you do that, or get away with that? :)

I despise the nasty AGW/CC debates...and yet...I can't help it, I wonder what I missed...


Wow...how did I do that? I made the pic as a funny...and yep...it's gone. *AND* I'm not banned.

Awesome! First time for everything I guess!
Hard to believe, but Central Pacific Hurricane Center has their first invest of the year:

CP 90 2010021618 BEST 0 35N 1662W 25 0 DB


Could it be a mistake? Typo? ???????????

Edit: Thats 3.5N 166.2W coordinates
Quoting Skyepony:
OZ that is the same as my Tycon. Really like, looks way more durable then my old La Crosse. I got mine even cheaper here.


Maybe not as cheap, cause my link doesn't charge shipping.
90C is on the Navy Backup Page. You will probably get a "Certificate Error" when you use the link. Its OK to proceed, .mil websites don't issue security certificates.
Evening everyone. I actually visited the National Hurricane Center today. Very, very cool. And actually that system in the central pacific you were talking about. The hurricane specialist giving us the tour showed it to us, and said the CPHC had called and asked their opinion on starting an invest on the system. I'll post some pics here in a few mins.
Quoting charlottefl:
Evening everyone. I actually visited the National Hurricane Center today. Very, very cool. And actually that system in the central pacific you were talking about. The hurricane specialist giving us the tour showed it to us, and said the CPHC had called and asked their opinion on starting an invest on the system. I'll post some pics here in a few mins.


Definitely and an interesting system south of Hawaii for sure. Potential for severe wx here (C FL and S FL) on Monday my friend. Norman even makes the mention of this for Monday but needs better model consensous before issuing a slight risk area.
I love this song

I dont make it rain....I think thats global warming! suey! suey! Now watch me shut this thing... down!
Quoting Skyepony:
OZ that is the same as my Tycon. Really like, looks way more durable then my old La Crosse. I got mine even cheaper here.


That looks like a good weather station... hrm...
Ok here's pics from today: (The last one has a computer monitor in RED, this is the invest south of Hawaii I was talking about)

ME OUT IN FRONT OF THE NHC

Photobucket

JR HURRICANE SPECIALIST (RIGHT) AND MEDIA LIAISON FOR NHC

Photobucket

LAST YEAR'S TROPICAL ACTIVITY

Photobucket

GUY WHO DEALS WITH DROPSONDE DATA AND NOAA AND AIR FORCE HH MISSION TASKING

Photobucket

TAFB OFFICE

Photobucket

TAFB FORECAST CHARTS

Photobucket

PACIFIC INVEST

Photobucket
My stars, but I am so over the cold in South Florida!! I moved here last summer to get AWAY from the cold. My new landscape is devastated. I keep wondering, is this anything like a normal winter here? I don't want to see this much cold again for many a year!
Hi. Looks relatively slow here, more like normal winter traffic.... lol....

Anybody else notice we're up to cyclone #16 in the Indian Ocean for the season??? I don't remember all those invests. Latest one looks like it might impact Mauritius / Reunion, which I haven't seen for a while.

Also, anybody else notice that while this season's storms have been numerous, they have also not been severe? Typical el nino impact? ?????
Quoting OrchidGrower:
My stars, but I am so over the cold in South Florida!! I moved here last summer to get AWAY from the cold. My new landscape is devastated. I keep wondering, is this anything like a normal winter here? I don't want to see this much cold again for many a year!

What you have experienced in South Florida is extremely rare. Cold snaps like you have experienced usually happen once every 30 yrs or so!
Another beautiful day here in Sydney, Just back from my morning walk with my 4y.o daughter.
The Sky is a beautiful blue, as seen on my web-cam.

Video clips at Ustream

The Video below my LIVE cam is me waving to everyone here. That's at about the 13th minute mark.
Quoting OrchidGrower:
My stars, but I am so over the cold in South Florida!! I moved here last summer to get AWAY from the cold. My new landscape is devastated. I keep wondering, is this anything like a normal winter here? I don't want to see this much cold again for many a year!
Welcome Orchid!

As Bon has said, this is pretty unusual weather for FL, esp. S FL. A normal winter might feature one or two snaps as cold as we have been seeing, but rarely a long stretch of colder temps as we have been seeing. (Of course December isn't usually that warm, either...)

Hopefully we'll get a bit of a break after this weekend...
Aussie, what's the tree in the webcam view?
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hi. Looks relatively slow here, more like normal winter traffic.... lol....

Anybody else notice we're up to cyclone #16 in the Indian Ocean for the season??? I don't remember all those invests. Latest one looks like it might impact Mauritius / Reunion, which I haven't seen for a while.

Also, anybody else notice that while this season's storms have been numerous, they have also not been severe? Typical el nino impact? ?????


Have you forgotten Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence that made land fall NW Australia. 285km/h Cat 5 Cyclone. That was a Indian Ocean Cyclone.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hi. Looks relatively slow here, more like normal winter traffic.... lol....

Anybody else notice we're up to cyclone #16 in the Indian Ocean for the season??? I don't remember all those invests. Latest one looks like it might impact Mauritius / Reunion, which I haven't seen for a while.

Also, anybody else notice that while this season's storms have been numerous, they have also not been severe? Typical el nino impact? ?????


There have been several TC in the S Pac that have approached or exceeded CAT 3 or greater in strength. A matter of fact Tonga was just hit last night by a CAT 4 Cyclone. TC Laurence was a CAT 5, several others were CAT 3 or greater, creating flooding problems in the Outback, which is a desert, all the way to near Sydney.

So far, as the US goes, we have been blessed, concerning Winter Severe Weather outbreaks. We have had scattered areas of severe weather, tornadoes, hail and wind damage, from time to time, but no widespread severe weather outbreaks.

However, as Spring quickly approaches, I fear we will have a very active Spring severe weather season in the SE US, S Plains (where I live) and the Midwest!

I live at the southern end of Tornado Alley, here in North Central Texas. Although I have not seen a tornado up close and personal,
I have seen several funnel clouds, many hailstorms, from golf ball to grapefruit size, straight-line winds over 115MPH and torrential rainfalls that approached near world records!

Quoting charlottefl:
Ok here's pics from today: (The last one has a computer monitor in RED, this is the invest south of Hawaii I was talking about)

ME OUT IN FRONT OF THE NHC

Photobucket

JR HURRICANE SPECIALIST (RIGHT) AND MEDIA LIAISON FOR NHC

Photobucket

LAST YEAR'S TROPICAL ACTIVITY

Photobucket

GUY WHO DEALS WITH DROPSONDE DATA AND NOAA AND AIR FORCE HH MISSION TASKING

Photobucket

TAFB OFFICE

Photobucket

TAFB FORECAST CHARTS

Photobucket

PACIFIC INVEST

Photobucket

what brought you to Miami? How do you like our fair city?
Quoting BahaHurican:
Aussie, what's the tree in the webcam view?

Eucalyptus Tree or more commonly known as a Gum Tree.
Quoting AussieStorm:


Have you forgotten Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence that made land fall NW Australia. 285km/h Cat 5 Cyclone. That was a Indian Ocean Cyclone.
And made landfall.... and made landfall.....

I didnt' realize it had gotten to cat 5.



I don't remember anything else getting much above 100 mph winds, though.

And I thought it might be a eucalyptus, but wasn't sure since the picture wasn't that clear.
Quoting doabarrelroll:

what brought you to Miami? How do you like our fair city?


I live about an hour and a half from there. Heard about them doing tours in the off season, and I had to go on one. Weather fascinates me, especially hurricanes. Did that, then went and ate lunch on Biscayne Bay. I'm back home now.
Quoting Bordonaro:


There have been several TC in the S Pac that have approached or exceeded CAT 3 or greater in strength. A matter of fact Tonga was just hit last night by a CAT 4 Cyclone. TC Laurence was a CAT 5, several others were CAT 3 or greater, creating flooding problems in the Outback, which is a desert, all the way to near Sydney.

Bord, I was thinking mainly about the SIndian storms, which currently number 16. Aside from Laurence, I don't remember much severe activity there.

The SPac storms I am not surprised by, given the warm pool of water near the equator for them to tap into.....
#339 charlottefl...excellent pics...thanks
Quoting charlottefl:


I live about an hour and a half from there. Heard about them doing tours in the off season, and I had to go on one. Weather fascinates me, especially hurricanes. Did that, then went and ate lunch on Biscayne Bay. I'm back home now.


very cool where did u eat
Quoting doabarrelroll:


very cool where did u eat


Bayside mall
Quoting charlottefl:


I live about an hour and a half from there. Heard about them doing tours in the off season, and I had to go on one. Weather fascinates me, especially hurricanes. Did that, then went and ate lunch on Biscayne Bay. I'm back home now.
This tour idea sounds interesting. Maybe I'll do that next winter.
Is anybody out there starting to think about predictions for the 2010 ATL / EPac seasons? I'd be interested to see what analog years ppl would be likely to pick based on our current wx trends.....
Oh, and as a final riposte before I go out, would u believe it's already down to 66 at 6:33 p.m.? And our low is supposed to hit 55.... dunno if that will happen, since it's still overcast (usually more likely to get a lower overnight temp w/ clear skies), but will be interesting to see just how cold it is when I get up tomorrow a.m...... I think I'll stick my thermometer out tonight.

Later, all!
Quoting BahaHurican:
Bord, I was thinking mainly about the SIndian storms, which currently number 16. Aside from Laurence, I don't remember much severe activity there.

The SPac storms I am not surprised by, given the warm pool of water near the equator for them to tap into.....


Link below is the current list of TC to affect the S Indian Ocean so far this season:

Link
Quoting Bordonaro:


You mean this mean Upper Level Low and trough digging down towards Hawaii??


Notice the blob to the south-southwest of Hawaii. Looks like a tropical disturbance trying to form, and it's north of Rene's surrounding tropical moisture.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Interesting -- I've never seen a single post entirely deleted (#309) without the poster getting banned for at least the day.

Of course, I haven't been around all that long.

Oz, how'd you do that, or get away with that? :)

I despise the nasty AGW/CC debates...and yet...I can't help it, I wonder what I missed...


I once had a post deleted for it bring longer than the blog entry (and admitting it), as well as including five images and soliciting traffic to my blog. I wasn't thoroughly aware of the rules, but I still haven't remembered to ask the admin why it was deleted.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hi. Looks relatively slow here, more like normal winter traffic.... lol....

Anybody else notice we're up to cyclone #16 in the Indian Ocean for the season??? I don't remember all those invests. Latest one looks like it might impact Mauritius / Reunion, which I haven't seen for a while.

Also, anybody else notice that while this season's storms have been numerous, they have also not been severe? Typical el nino impact? ?????


The Indian Ocean temperatures are currently above normal and although El Nino has weakened its warm pool has expanded and its ocean current-stalling effects continue. Below are the current global SSTs and anomalies, and I have also saved a collection of almost daily images for SSTs since early December:



Quoting BahaHurican:
And made landfall.... and made landfall.....

I didnt' realize it had gotten to cat 5.



I don't remember anything else getting much above 100 mph winds, though.

And I thought it might be a eucalyptus, but wasn't sure since the picture wasn't that clear.

I'm pretty sure Laurence was only a cat 5 on the Australian scale it's a cat 4 on the saffir simpson. Still an impresive cyclone though. Edzani in the SW Idian ocean did reach cat 5 strength though earlier this year
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


I once had a post deleted for it bring longer than the blog entry (and admitting it), as well as including five images and soliciting traffic to my blog. I wasn't thoroughly aware of the rules, but I still haven't remembered to ask the admin why it was deleted.


Hmmm, a couple-few of the bloggers do that all the time -- have mercy on us all!!! :)
Quoting BahaHurican:
Bord, I was thinking mainly about the SIndian storms, which currently number 16. Aside from Laurence, I don't remember much severe activity there.

The SPac storms I am not surprised by, given the warm pool of water near the equator for them to tap into.....


Actually, considering only the Southwest Indian Ocean this has been only the twelvth storm this season, and Edzani hit 905 mbar back in January.Link The southeast Pacific storms this season have tapped into the ENSO warm pool, and the storms in turn weakened and expanded it while some of its water was pulled southeast to choke the Humboldt Current. Cyclone Oli reached the farthest east that any category four storm in the South Pacific has done so since at least 1945 and its remnants crossed southern Chile to east of the Falklands and is bringing warm water toward the Ronne Ice Shelf.
The NHC specialist there also said they were updating their hurricane model (this season), to look for storm surge warnings, extended lead times on watches (48 hrs) and warnings (36 hours), and a 7 day forecast in the next couple of seasons.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Is anybody out there starting to think about predictions for the 2010 ATL / EPac seasons? I'd be interested to see what analog years ppl would be likely to pick based on our current wx trends.....


Might do that in a future blog post, but right now I'm thinking of 2004 for an analog year. El Nino Modoki weakening throughout the season. Hyperactive tornado season, and many storms hitting Florida, although for this year I'm thinking that the Carolinas and the lower Northeast will be in trouble as well.
Quoting all4hurricanes:

I'm pretty sure Laurence was only a cat 5 on the Australian scale it's a cat 4 on the saffir simpson. Still an impresive cyclone though. Edzani in the SW Idian ocean did reach cat 5 strength though earlier this year




Season so far
I guess only the professionals could make a good guess about next year, or should I say educated guess any way. But as for me I don't see even a slight decrease in the sw to ne wind shear that's been in place for the last year or so. So until that happens I see a hostel environment upstairs.
Quoting charlottefl:
The NHC specialist there also said they were updating their hurricane model (this season), to look for storm surge warnings, extended lead times on watches (48 hrs) and warnings (36 hours), and a 7 day forecast in the next couple of seasons.


They're also issuing a new public advisory format this season. I think they're onto something!Link
Quoting gordydunnot:
I guess only the professionals could make a good guess about next year, or should I say educated guess any way. But as for me I don't see even a slight decrease in the sw to ne wind shear that's been in place for the last year or so. So until that happens I see a hostel environment upstairs.


I think that the warm anomaly in the south and east North Atlantic formed by the slowing of the North Atlantic Gyre will drift into the Caribbean, as shown by some models into June and July. However, the warmth is drifting into the Caribbean already, and some places are up to 1.5C above normal. I see some Caribbean and Cape Verde storms popping up very early in the season, and Gulf Stream storms should be watched out for especially as well. Link
Hi Senior Chief!
Completely cool that you visited the National Hurricane Center charlottefl! :) Or do they call it the Tropical Prediction Center now?
Thank you astro that was interesting reading. But it seems to me that the real warming is occurring from just west of Africa to the mid Pacific as concerning the oceans. A very large part of the earth, I think we maybe in uncharted waters so to speak, no pun intended.




1110 AM HST TUE FEB 16 2010

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. An area of thunderstorms is located 1215 nm SSW of Honolulu and is nearly stationary. Thunderstorm coverage in this area has maintained persistent strength of the past couple of days. Slow development of this system is possible over the next two days.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Thursday afternoon.
hey guys is it true the first invest for the cent. Pac.
is it north or south hem.
Still the NHC.. It's co- located with TAFB and the Miami WFO.
is this a sign of how the 2010 atlantic hurricane season
Quoting AussieStorm:




Season so far

What's your point you have contradicting evidence on whether Laurence is a cat 5 or not.
Quoting all4hurricanes:

What's your point you have contradicting evidence on whether Laurence is a cat 5 or not.

Pardon???
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:




1110 AM HST TUE FEB 16 2010

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. An area of thunderstorms is located 1215 nm SSW of Honolulu and is nearly stationary. Thunderstorm coverage in this area has maintained persistent strength of the past couple of days. Slow development of this system is possible over the next two days.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Thursday afternoon.


Ekeka formed in January 1992 earliest formation of a cyclone on record in that basin. So it is possible.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Pardon???

Sorry for being rude but the track map shows cat 4 status and the timeline shows cat 5 what's your stance?
386. JRRP
hello!!!!

my preliminary prediction is
15
9
4
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys is it true the first invest for the cent. Pac.


Is it usual to have a tropical cyclone or invest to form this early in the season?

Quoting all4hurricanes:

Sorry for being rude but the track map shows cat 4 status and the timeline shows cat 5 what's your stance?


It's category 5 on the Australian scale, but category 4 on the SSHS. No debate required.
Quoting all4hurricanes:

Sorry for being rude but the track map shows cat 4 status and the timeline shows cat 5 what's your stance?

That was my exact point. Cat 4 SSHS, Cat 5 BOM.
Link


MARK NEAR
7N/165W

well this is interesting
CP 90 2010021618 BEST 0 35N 1662W 25 1009 DB
CP 90 2010021700 BEST 0 37N 1664W 25 1009 DB
Has there been a named storm in the Central Pacific in February? I know the West Pacific Typhoon season is year round.
Central Pacific
90C.INVEST


Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Central Pacific
90C.INVEST




That moisture plum extends all the way to Mexico. It's this moisture that could fuel some powerful storms in Florida Monday.
GFS GLOBAL MODEL RUN
MARK AREA
5N/165W



Strong to severe storms will occur Monday across C and S FL as moisture and heat builds out ahead of a short wave disturbance inbedded in the southern jet. This could be our first big thunderstorm of the season in Orlando.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
GFS GLOBAL MODEL RUN
MARK AREA
5N/165W





Notice the moisture getting pulled NE toward Mexico.
785

ACPN50 PHFO 170151

TWOCP



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI

400 PM HST TUE FEB 16 2010



FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180



1. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED 1335 MILES SSW OF HONOLULU

AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THIS AREA HAS

MAINTAINED PERSISTENT STRENGTH OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. SLOW

DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.



ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY

AFTERNOON.



$$



FOSTER


Quoting Jeff9641:


Notice the moisture getting pulled NE toward Mexico.

that area is still far from mex at that point
the model only goes out 72 hrs
after that it starts to be a little less reliable
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

that area is still far from mex at that point
the model only goes out 72 hrs
after that it starts to be a little less reliable


I'm not talking about the low itself, I'm referring to the moisture from this system being injected into the southern jet this weekend as a trough sets up in the eastern US.
Quoting Jeff9641:


I'm not talking about the low itself, I'm referring to the moisture from this system being injected into the southern jet this weekend as a trough sets up in the eastern US.


not getting much on models
If this invest in the Central Pacific remains stationary for much longer, it is going to strengthen El Nino slightly as it circulates warm water to the east and cool water to the Central Western Pacific from the north.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Notice the blob to the south-southwest of Hawaii. Looks like a tropical disturbance trying to form, and it's north of Rene's surrounding tropical moisture.

Betcha the Sub Tropical Jet will tap that moisture later this week into next week, adding an additional kick to that big L in the C Pac that will be moving towards the W CONUS.
The GFS 00Z run for 2-17-10 is running currently up to 54 hrs, it will be interesting to see what this shows for this weekend into next week.
Look at the C PAC 90C and the feed from the Sub Tropical Jet. It will be interesting if that moisture is tapped and thrown into the CONUS next week!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


not getting much on models


That is a old model run from earlier in the day.
Quoting Bordonaro:
Look at the C PAC 90C and the feed from the Sub Tropical Jet. It will be interesting if that moisture is tapped and thrown into the CONUS next week!


I the GFS verifies there will be very interesting weather in the south next week with this added moisture from this tropical system in the C PAC. Severe wx and heavy snow may again appear next week across the South and mid Atlantic.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


not getting much on models
'

Look at the latest model run ie 18z and 0z models and you will see a big difference from model runs earlier today.
i like geting my mode runs from here

Link



all so i noted at the end of the run the cold air go way way N may parts of the midwest may see there 1st 60s and 70s
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number NINE
CYCLONE TROPICAL GELANE (12-20092010)
10:00 AM Réunion February 16 2010
=================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Gelane (960 hPa) located at 13.5S 61.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported moving south southeast at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D1.0/12 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
15 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
================
25 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center extending up to 90 NM in the southern semi circle

Near Gale-Force Winds
=======================
100 NM from the center extending up to 160 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 14.0S 61.4E - 90 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 14.7S 61.7E - 100 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 15.9S 61.7E - 110 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 17.5S 61.2E - 90 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
========================
An eye is now visible on satellite imagery.

Equatorward upper level outflow is weakening and a poleward one is building closed to a westerly subtropical jet wind shear is not expected to strengthen significantly before 72 hours.

Environment should therefore remain rather favorable and then degrade progressively as an upper level trough is coming from the west. GELANE is expected to keep on slowly tracking south southeast then southward over the next 48 hours then recurving southwestward undergoing the mid level subtropical ridge steering influence. Available numerical weather prediction models show yet variations about chronology, but they all suggest a southward then southwestward track. Present forecast remain in the philosophy of previous advisories and is close to the tracks followed by this models.
temp dropped quickly since woke up low 40's e coast cent pac might turn into a gender bender hopefully the islands are not in its way
Morning, leftovers i agree with you on the commercials. The olympics are great.
.
000
WHXX01 KMIA 170700
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0700 UTC WED FEB 17 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO CPHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (CP902010) 20100217 0600 UTC


...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 2.4N LONCUR = 165.6W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 2.4N LONM12 = 165.5W DIRM12 = 333DEG SPDM12 = 1KT
LATM24 = 2.3N LONM24 = 165.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
414. IKE
In February? WTH?

SHIPS text for 90C. Shear ramps up after 24 hours.
625

WHXX01 KMIA 170700

CHGE77

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI

0700 UTC WED FEB 17 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO CPHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (CP902010) 20100217 0600 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100217 0600 100217 1800 100218 0600 100218 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 2.4N 165.6W 4.0N 165.8W 4.3N 166.0W 3.5N 166.2W

BAMD 2.4N 165.6W 4.6N 165.8W 5.9N 165.4W 6.5N 164.0W

BAMM 2.4N 165.6W 4.3N 165.5W 5.1N 164.9W 5.0N 163.8W

SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 39KTS 41KTS

DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 39KTS 41KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100219 0600 100220 0600 100221 0600 100222 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 2.1N 165.7W .4N 167.2W .9N 168.0W .8N 168.4W

BAMD 6.9N 161.9W 9.2N 158.4W 13.3N 154.9W 15.4N 148.9W

BAMM 4.3N 162.0W 4.2N 159.1W 6.0N 159.1W 7.5N 160.4W

SHIP 40KTS 32KTS 33KTS 30KTS

DSHP 40KTS 32KTS 33KTS 30KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 2.4N LONCUR = 165.6W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 0KT

LATM12 = 2.4N LONM12 = 165.5W DIRM12 = 333DEG SPDM12 = 1KT

LATM24 = 2.3N LONM24 = 165.4W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
419. IKE
At 2.4N? LOL....

103 days...
18 hours...
and the Atlantic season starts.
strange to have anything out there at all
421. IKE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
strange to have anything out there at all


True.....

Unusual, but not unprecendented


iam even surprize its an invest be so close to 0n mark figured they would have waited till at least 5 n
425. unf97
Good morning!

Heading off to work, but I have a chilly 27.4 degrees this morning at my north Jax, FL home.

A beautiful, crisp winter day is in store today as the max temp is expected to rise into the low 50s.

Another freeze tonight with lows in the upper 20s. A slow warm-up by this weekend.

Have a great day!

12 in. in Dover NH
A Severe wx and heavy rain potential could be on the way for Florida Monday and into Tuesday. The funny thing is our NWS in Melbourne only say a slight chance of showers. Sounds like they will be wrong again. These guys can never get a forecast right. High schoolers must work there.

THE GFS NOW INDICATES A MUCH STRONGER MIDLEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THIS MORE INTENSE SOLUTION
WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS /SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE/ FROM
THE WRN GULF COAST ON D5 EWD ALONG THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF COAST D6
/MON FEB 22ND/ INTO D7. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE ECMWF AND GFS

SOLUTIONS...AS WELL AS THEIR RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES...NO
REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER AREAS WILL BE DELINEATED.
Thanks Jeff.
Advanced potential is helpful to know.
AP Highschoolers are pretty good.
DISTURBANCE INVEST (CP902010) 20100217 1200 UTC

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 2.5N LONCUR = 164.5W DIRCUR = 85DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 2.5N LONM12 = 165.6W DIRM12 = 72DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 2.3N LONM24 = 165.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


12Z SHIPS text
Evening all
NEW BLOG!
A glitch for every gold
Neither athletes nor fans spared
FYI, BTW... NEW BLOG!
NEW BLOG NEWBLOG NEW BLOG NEW BLOG NEW BLOG