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Winter is back to normal

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:38 PM GMT on January 26, 2007

Winter is back to normal across most of the Northern Hemisphere this week, as Europe finally got its first major snowstorm and cold air outbreak. A powerful low pressure system swept across Europe this week, causing numerous flight delays and traffic accidents across Germany, France, and Austria. About 5,000 vehicles were stranded in eastern France when the A6 motorway was cut off by snow. Over 200 police and firefighters were sent to help stranded motorists. Over a meter of snow fell in the Alps, bringing ski areas their first decent snows this winter. London got their first significant snow of winter, as well.


Figure 1. The long-range forecast for February, March, and April. Image credit: Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society.

The 2-week forecast from the GFS model foresees a fairly normal winter pattern for the next two weeks over the Northern Hemisphere. The long-range forecast for the rest of winter and early spring (Figure 1) from Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society also predicts a fairly normal weather pattern for the coming three months. Most of Europe, North America, and northern Asia are predicted to have near normal to slightly above normal temperatures. Record high temperatures are most likely over portions of Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia.

Jeff Masters
Winter is here!
Winter is here!
After a warm December and January, winter has finally arrived to Prague! The snow cover in Prague is now 15 cm (6 inches) and it's still snowing! For the first time this winter, you can go skiing in the city parks. In the picture, you can see the passenger train from Prague to Kladno. Unlike the motorists stuck in traffic jams, this train will arrive on time today!
1st snow this winter
1st snow this winter
After many weeks mild weather winter has at last arrived in Geneva. Beautiful but treacherous!

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update. It's too bad so many were caught off gaurd & stranded but nice to see a normal bit of the seasons appear.
Notice that almost all areas on the forecast are still normal or above-normal--there is almost no below-normal in the forecast.
I am glad things are NORMAL, but I really prefer spring and summer. Hopefully this cold won't last for long.
Definately noted snowboy, just thankful it's not all deep red like December.

Looking around the link Jeff left us, the N American Discussion.



The IRI has prepared this experimental Climate Outlook for North America for February - July 2007. Of relevance in the preparation of this outlook is a strong likelihood that the present weak to moderate El Nino conditions in the tropical Pacific SSTs will continue at weak to moderate strength through the first forecast period and weaken toward neutral thereafter. Such tropical Pacific conditions are indicated in the SST predictions on which these climate forecasts are based. See the IRI's ENSO update for a discussion on the ENSO outlook (see IRI Probabilistic ENSO forecast). Warmer than average SSTs are now observed in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, while normal SSTs are found in the western tropical Pacific. The eastern equatorial Indian Ocean has near to slightly below normal SSTs, and the central and eastern Indian Ocean has above normal SSTs. Much of the northern tropical Atlantic Ocean shows above-average SSTs (SSTs). The SST anomalies in the Indian Ocean are predicted to slowly weaken over the course of the forecast periods, and the SST anomalies in the tropical Atlantic are expected to continue, and the gradient of the anomalies from southern to northern tropical Atlantic are expected to strengthen somewhat
link
HMMMM....ok.....dare i ask the question....with the warm winter for the north being blamed by so many on global warning...now that we're back to "normal"....might we change that comparison that our warmer than current averages winter weather pattern might have actually more to do to the El Nino event.... and now with the weakening El Nino our winter weather is back to a more "normal pattern?
Last year what actually happened was a case of more exremes.


& we were in a Negative neutral to La Nina at the time.

Not exactly what was forecasted...

Guess we'll have to see how the forecast verifies to make any real conclusions ricderr.
Thank you Dr Masters. Nice to know that we will be back to normal temps for the next 3 months. Just did not want to get to excited that we might actually get a reprieve on winter...
like huh Winter is back to normal?????


not so her in ca we are now going in to week 4 with out rain this is week 3 we need rain

can you say dry

lol

and look at this

IN A RECORD BREAKING DRY
JANUARY. DOWNTOWN SACRAMENTO
HAS ONLY HAD .07 INCHES OF PRECIP THIS
MONTH WITH NO MORE PRECIP FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH NEXT
WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE PREVIOUS MINIMUM JANUARY PRECIP OF .15 INCH
WILL PROBABLY BE UNDER CUT THIS YEAR BREAKING A MINIMUM JANUARY
PRECIP RECORD THAT GOES ALL THE WAY BACK TO 1889.


send some rain Please

EXTENDED MODELS BUILD A SHARP HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE THREAT OF ANY MOISTURE
BREAKING THROUGH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD


could FEB be a vary dry one????
Taz, the latest GFS runs show a shift to wetter conditions, at least in southern California (maybe not Sacramento). The model accuracy has been so low that it isn't anything to get excited about, but at least it is hope.

out here we are waiting to put plants in the ground for a habitat restoration project... we really would like an end to this blasted dry spell
: Inyo we need rain bad it will not be a nic summer this year at all i tihnk its time to move to co where they get lots of snow!!! i hate ca weather
surfs up in pr!! A low pressure system of the eastcoast of the us will generate large 10ft swells for the north coast of pr this weekend!! So grab your stick (umm surfboard) and head on down to my little corner of the world.
hi weatherboykris any thing new with you no oh
Well... I still haven't moved to Houston. Couldn't convince my wife, so I'm staying in So. Cal for the time being.

I must say, while I enjoy the 75 degree temperatures in January, I have to agree with Taz -- This summer is not going to be pleasant!

I'm trying to finish some insulation upgrades, replace my last few old aluminum windows and install a pre-cooler near my A/C compressor outside. Without that, I'll be looking at a $500.00 electric bill for about 3 months.
FL sould be in there dry season and ca sould in the wet season but thing are mixs up FL is geting are rain and we are haveing FL dry season
not much,Taz
: weatherboykris not much???
not much.You?what's up with the weather this morning?
Did those links I gave you help?
weatherboykris the weather is dry well in to FEB yes they did help thanks

Notice how active the ITCZ is forecast to be this H-season,which could mean African dust isn't forecast to be a large factor this year.
weatherboykris oh my where do you find the maps?
sea temps are hoter this year too

Link
This shows the comparision of sea temps between this date now and last year. The main development region was warmer last year, but this year theres a larger area of warmer temps closer to the US.

This year


Last year
yes sea temps are a little hoter this year i am seting up my blog for the party too night on thing we can all talk about
see my blog
there it is,Taz
: weatherboykris come tae a look at my blog i set up some thing we can all talk about and have a good time
Hey everybody, Wow the new GFS 12UTC really shows 2 VERY WET WEEKS across FLORIDA. With LOW PRESSURE AFTER LOW PRESSURE!
The only thing we can say for certain about this upcoming tropical season in the Atlantic is that we will not be dealing with an El Nino situation. The other factors..dust or no dust, ULL's, SST's, ITCZ forecasts, etc... are all pure speculation right now. We will know more as we get closer to Spring. Or at least we will try to know more!!..LOL Look what happen last season!
yes but not evere season is going to be like last season

I think we could see 20 storms this year.That honestly would not surprise me considering how things are looking right now.
weatherboykris i say we could see 25 to 30 storms this year when dos the next hurricane forcast come out FEB???? MAR???
TSR's comes in about 10 days,mine about 7,klotzbach's about 2 months
i am trying to find maps like this but dont no where to go dos any one have a link???

lol
weatherboykris thanks
I'll go for the one in 2 months:)
they did worse than TSR last year.I"m pretty sure they did,anyway.And don't trust Klotzbach,he's smart and all,but he just was given leadership of CSU's forecast team last year.He's no Bill Gray yet.
Quite cool this morning going to work with temps around 49 degrees at the airport.A warm up is in the making this weekened when another cold front makes its way into the southeast come monday-tuesday time frame.After that things look to be back to normal with a building ridge which has been pretty persistent so far this winter keeping temps above normal most of the time.Overall things will get back to normal for us across southflorida while other parts of the U.S. experience very cold temps. Adrian
What is this winter you speak of? There is no such thing down here in So Cal.

Here is som information from my local weather station South Whittier, CA...

Days With Rain This Month
4 Days

Rainfall This Month
0.09
Rainfall This Year (July - June)
0.77
Record Daily Rain For Month
0.04

Average Barometer This Month
30.08


High preasue rulled with an iron fist this month.

I would not be shocked if the GFS goes back to a dryer solution witch it had been predicting a day or so ago. Modles seam to have 0% consistancy for the past few days. I noticed that when it has a hard time with consistancy the dryer solution often is the right one (at leaste this season).



TCWC in Wellington, New Zealand
===============================
As 1800pm RSMC Nadi reported Tropical Cyclone Arthur near 24.5S 149.7E.

Tropical Cyclone Arthur 08F has 10 min sustained winds of 50 knots with a center pressure of 985 hPa.

The sustained winds forecasted to decrease to 45 knots.

cyclone is still in the Nadi area of responsibility but will past 25S later today as storm moves southeast at 20 knots.

Repeat as 1800pm RSMC Nadi reported Tropical Cyclone Arthur near 24.5S 149.7E.
We will know more as we get closer to Spring. Or at least we will try to know more!!.


Not without a "POD" 03...LOL!
show STL your support!Vote in his poll Link
he's a valuable member who will be missed if he leaves.
On Second thought So Cal winters are fairly dry to start off with so I guess it is in a way average

:)
53. Inyo
So-cal has an extremely variable 'wet' season with yearly rainfalls in LA historically ranging from 4" to 38". Anything between 8 and 20 is quite common. There really isnt any 'average' here.
54. Inyo
It is also interesting to note that the driest year on record and the second wettest year on record (off by .1 inch from the wettest) both occurred between 2000 and 2005, and the wettest year on record and the second driest year on record both occurred between 1885 and 1890. Extremes tend to cluster around here, for whatever reason.
>_> That is very interesting Inyo. I have never noticed that before. Wouldnt it be interesting if 5 years from know we have a very very wet season?. I love patterns ^_^. Finding information about past winters is not easy to find. Do you have a good website for that?
Hey everyone I was just wondering not that I want to leave this site but, do they have other sites like weather underground and a blog like this one like Dr Masters Site is. I have seen a few that people where talking about them but they don't have blogs like this one. Ive heard of some and I would just like a few names if anyone knows of any, that is good ones where you can get good information. I like learning and talking about Hurricanes and just like to find out new information on them. I know there not really talking about hurricane season right know. that's all. Thanks if someone can help me Sheri.
Just as I had said earlyer I wouldnt have been shocked if the GFS goes towards a dryer pattern for the next week. Thats exactly what happend. New update just came out and it looks dry dry dry. Remember when in question take the dry road...

Long term (tue-fri)...the GFS is no longer showing any precipitation for
our area later Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper low finally returns and
moves through our area. The models are all over the map on this and
run to run consistency is really low so i'm going to leave the
forecast pretty much as is with partly cloudy skies and no rain. Not
much in the way of warming expected until at least the weekend when
the models show a strong eastern Pacific Ridge setting up along the
West Coast and remaining there well into the following week. In
short, if no rain falls from this system over the next couple days
we likely won't be getting any rain for at least the next 2 weeks.
Hey everyone I was just wondering not that I want to leave this site but, do they have other sites like weather underground and a blog like this one like Dr Masters Site is. I have seen a few that people where talking about them but they don't have blogs like this one. Ive heard of some and I would just like a few names if anyone knows of any, that is good ones where you can get good information. I like learning and talking about Hurricanes and just like to find out new information on them. I know there not really talking about hurricane season right know. that's all. Thanks if someone can help me Sheri.


I think there are,but none with the open blogs and comments and email here.I think there's one called EastCoastWx
end of line.......
And I thought for just a minute you were being serious Patrap,LOL
Ping
Pong....
The look ahead is Cold..maybe Dixie South get yer Galoshes and Long johns on cold.....
Right now.Im heading out to Seafood friday Night....adio
66. HCW
Jeff what are your thoughts on the huge artic outbreak next week ? Do you see a couple of shots of snow for the deep south ?

http://www.hardcoreweather.com

Link
When afternoon came it was freezin' rain
in the face of a hurricane west wind.
Posted By: Randrewl at 6:35 AM GMT on January 27, 2007.

The featured blogs here for winter weather are updated maybe every two days....usually three or four.
What good does that do anyone?
My blog is updated every day. But still WU admin does not think it is important for timely updates on the featured blogs!
Hell, if I got paid for not doing my job I would still do it as good as they do!

71st!
Tropical Cyclone Arthur
28.0S 147.0W - 50 knots 985 hPa

forecasted 10 min sustained winds of 35 knots in 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Gale Warning
==============================
tropical cyclone is moving southeast at 20 knots

next Tropical Gale Warning at 1200pm UTC Saturday
St. Louis ,Mo. forecast..er here.Link
1st
The GREAT ST. Louis Storm of 06...hmmmmmm?Link
The big radar view I found..Link
The GFSx has a bead on the Cold plunge..Link
A neat lil chart on the cold I found...Link
looks like weather peoms are in order todaay


Children together can make PEACE forever.
In all weather, thats clever.
Ode to peace
Every year we honour the dead,
But it never ends, there's always bloodshed.
Conflict of war, one kind or another,
Worry and anguish for many a mother.
When will this world come to its senses?
Once and for all take down its defences.
A world where nations could love one another,
Men would regard each one as his brother.
Is this a dream, or can it come true?
Just like the summer sun, it's long overdue.
The T-storms and rain a cometh...6
THE GIFTS OF MARI
by Lucirina Telor Vevan

Between the cold raindrops,
the warm tears hide, cowering.
Inside the fires of passion
the numbness of fear chills us.
Amidst the smell of new-born roses
the smell of decay and death lingers.
In each dawn,
A night dies.
In each twilight,
a day agonises.
For each life
there is a death.
For each smile,
a tear.

For each dream
there is awakening.
In each greeting
there is a farewell.
In a single kiss
beats lie hidden.
Behind the smiles
Awaits the grimace of anger
to transform happiness
into grieving.

Misunderstood, loathed,
Mari's hand touches us all.
Cursed, blessed her gifts.
She gives us joys and griefs.
Peace, then pains of war.
Love, then the cold touch of hatred.
Happiness, then the numbness of sorrow.
But she also gives
The caress, after the strikes.
The kiss, after the absence.
Silence, after the deafening sounds.
Mo. weather link...Link
makes me damn glad i gaave up meat products
99. IKE
And I bought some cheese hot dogs to eat on this weekend...just killed that desire.

STL needs a mellow pill or a bong to hit on...just chill STL....it's a cyber space blog.
hey patrap
good morning
LOL,your funny pat
109. ryang
Morning.
hey ryang.You seen my blog?
112. ryang
hey ryang.You seen my blog

I don't think so.
did you go to Taz's party?
114. ryang
I was at Taz Party.At intervals.
me too.I missed most of the busiest part.Was there at the start and the finish.Taz missed the busiest part,too.
pat stop posting your mail on her no one wants to see it and stop posting thing about STL its not nic

evere one if you see pat post his mail on her that talks about STL this SPAM it its not nic
hey guys I have a quick question does this mean that el nino pattern is gone
Miamiweather~ El Nio has grown weaker & weaker. Now near nuetral & in my opinion headed that way soon, but technecally right now it's still El Nio.
A bit of a shock today. The GFS has been switching a lot between dry/wet for the forcast this weekend and into next week. Today it takes a wet. Showing between today and Thursday anywhere from trace-2.00 inches. Depending on location and how this all pans out. Still a lot of uncertainty out there. It even showed the so far none exsistant Southern Jet kicking up and helping Tuesday storm. Should be interesting to see what comes from this.

Not to get to excited cause it also looks like after Thursday another storng dry Santa Ana wind behind the storms.
Wanted to say hello to everyone. Well Dauphin Island having it's Mardi Gras Parade to day and it's the Senior Bowl today here in Mobile,Alabama
El nino in my opinion is just about gone if not already dead.A moderate La nina is quite possible for the 2007 hurricane season but right now its a wait and see situation to see how all this developes.

I will say this there are alot of other issues that will still be pending for this upcoming season...

For example how will the dust factor be around the basin?What kind of steering pattern will be in place?Alot of questions that wont be answered for the next couple of months.
Agreed 23, looks like we pobibly won't have the inhibiting factor of El Nio. Though it's possible Neutral could rule the season too. And all the other factors well, it's really to hard to tell this far out.
Looking at the MJO...


The green lines are positive areas, tend to be stormer, contributes to tropical as well as winter storms. The brown line areas are negative, more stable, doesn't discount rain, just lessens the chance of severe weather. The other colors.. blue through red is like looking at an IR satalite.
Hopefully that green will stay out of the basin come cane season.
For those who dont understand how the MJO works here are 2 links that will help alot.

1.Madden-Julian Oscillation
2.Another MJO page
Hey, Doc & Saturday blog crew. Break at work.
Will Daytona/Speedweeks Cup races get rained on? Clear & cold is good, the wind isn't as big a factor as it was when the speeds were 210+ on the track. Looks like a lock for rain on the 24 Hours of Daytona going on now. BTW - What's the NAO doing now? Links?
NAO Negative Forecasted to move towards postitive again as we move into February.
Incredibly horrible times for florida hopefully times like these are a thing of the past.

83 major hurricanes hit the united states 1944-1969.(23 hit the U.S./12 hit florida.

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
BTW, postive PNA and negative NAO give the Deep South the best chances of frozen wintry precip. We have that right now. Maybe this week?
Our little storm in the Gulf is a little stronger than forecast, pressure down to 1006 mb at the Mississippi Delta southwest pass.
Man this is unreal. Again Orange county and Southern LA county gets nothing from the band of rain.
It just missed ya lightning10! Los Angeles Area Radar Hopefully the next one won't.
Thanks WG03
Next band for me coming soon
With that first band of rain I didnt think it would hold together this far inland anways. The reason the air is so dry. The next band and any bands aver that should hold together better.

Whenever the rain moves this slow and the air below is this dry I never get much since I am so far inland.
Heads Up Fla..Panama City...Link
140. N3EG
For whoever wanted a good winter weather blog (at least for the Pacific NW) try here.
99S looks to be pulling it together.

Yes Patrap slight tornado chance in FL tonight.
143. Inyo
lightning, its literally been raining almost constantly since at least 7 AM in Ventura, we've had well over an inch and the rain band still isnt moving.
The rain is moderate now but most of the day it was light.. perfect drought-busting rain. It is expected to continue for at least another 24 hours and 'might' spread east. by the time this storm is done ventura county will probably have had several inches and the hills can finally turn green again.


the long term gfs has been flip flopping on more big storms after 8 or 9 days, but it hasnt been worth much that far out so.. we'll have to wait and see
COLD..as predicted..In STL...Link
Cant seem to find a Graph here today?
Clearing here..coolerLink
The GFSx keeping the cold Pattern in Place thru the 7th..Link
Good Sunday Morning to you, and you too........
Some cool after the rains, Pat ?
Itsa cold here..but Sunny now.Nicer day for sure Pottery.Hows you ?
Its a nice one here too. no sign of the dreaded dust this morning.Planning to attend a birthday party later. 10 little guys around 9 years old in a swamp bird santuary. Should be fun ??!!!!! The one that sees the most birds gets thrown overboard to feed the cayman...
Sounds a lil like Louisiana pottery.A local custom I presume?
what..no graphs..what's the good dr's blog without posts of useless informational graphics.......let me attend to this problem..



d
thanks ric..it was a lil dull grey in Here.
...whew..we're good on the ozone laayer here in the WPB area...i was concerned....






West Palm Beach
CURRENT AIR QUALITY
CONDITIONS
Sunday
January 28, 2007 TODAY'S
FORECAST
Sunday
January 28, 2007 TOMORROW'S
FORECAST
Monday
January 29, 2007
Ozone AQI observed at 09:00 EST: 17

current conditions map
yesterday's summary
month's archives

Primary Pollutant
Health Message: No health impacts are expected in this range.
Forecast Not Available
*Tomorrow's forecast is generally available by 4:15 pm EDT.

er..Ozone Holes in Color ..5
beware..this is what the boogeyman looks like......



d
Yeah, VERY local.... My yard only.Most of the time the poor kids get to go to the Mall....
Big Kahuna Global Views of a Shrinking Hole in Anartica
and thus ends another episode of "queer eye for the weather guy" ...and another dreary blog turned colorful....time to celebrate at the church of soccer....until our next episode...please visit our sponsor..weather depot...home of all your graphs and color weather needs
Thanks ricderr looks like we have some areas of questionable air quality out west this morning.

Gfs lied yesterday, glad I stuck with the canadian Gem, got near a 1/2 inch of rain lastnight:)

99S still chugging along~ 30kts 1000mb, could be named at anytime.
Well Skye..I take the Pragmatic views on the Models.Models = truthiness at best..
Pat,unblock my mail.I'm trying to write back.
But we got a good 1"plus here and many like Doc ..got more to my SW.Was a Wet but timid Low.
You should avoid posting such gloomy facts on a nice morning Pat. Brings me back to reality.And I was so enjoying the innocence of the moment. We can run but we cant hide. Oh well...........
I have no blocks on anything Kris...
It said you did.
check it
The ozone hole I meant, Pat.
TO: weatherboykris
DATE: 2007-01-28 15:40:21 (3:40 PM GMT)
SUBJECT: BLOCKED MESSAGE: Re: Severe Blog
Sorry but Patrap is blocking your messages.

try now.Im cowed to two systems right now.
Patrap~ at times a model just seems to pick up the habit of lying for a while & the gfs seems on a good trip of it lately (or has it picked up a crack habit as some have claimed), even the local NWS guys are looking elsewhere.
I think it went,Pat.
GFS is Like a Bag Lunch I say..LOL.And Agree.Itsa been a lil Strong on the Progs Id say.Even the GFSx is giving dire stuff.Link
Pottery~ don't fret the hole this morning, it only open during the Antartic winter. It pretty much closed the 1st week in December as it is summer down there now.

Shame Patrap for posting such out useless & out of date, off topic stuff...'01 & '02?
I like da colors from those Years Skye..LOL
"I bear no Shame..for I am WUBA." Author Unknown
How about a colorful quickscat of 99S


I see some 40kt vectors over the recent blow up in the middle.
Tops brightening and good overall infow..Synoptic view is Good for development there it seems.
odd the loop currents site seem to be off line or it may be this me i was going to see how are little loop eddys are doing in the Caribbean
Good afternoon everyone,

Posting from work...

Very cool temps instore for south florida in the next 2 days with windchill readings in the upper 30's in some locations.Back later

Is anyone on?
Noboddy at all... Hi storm2.
I'm sort of " on "
i'm on. Can't wait for the cool down in florida. Wunderground is projecting an over night low of 35 where i live. The wind will make it fell even colder than that. Right now conditions are windy and in the seventies.
Sounds good, Drakoen. Why is that ? wind from the North ?
Posted By: hurricane23 at 4:31 PM GMT on January 28, 2007.

Good afternoon everyone,

Posting from work...

Very cool temps instore for south florida in the next 2 days with windchill readings in the upper 30's in some locations.Back later


Try upper 30s in most locations as actual lows.And the rest of the SE is no warmer.Also,with the calm winds,practically all of FL and the SE could see frost.
yea. a front is gonna come through then another front to reinforce the cold. Daytime high temperature should be in the mid to low 60s and dramatically dropping of by night.
The high will be right on top of the Sunhine State on Monday night.Excellent radiational cooling conditions.If winds are calm,then temps drop 20-30 degrees from daytime highs.That means places in the low 60s will be in the 30s if winds are calm.Here is from Texas A&M online tutorials:

FORECASTING TECHNIQUE: How will the wind affect the nighttime temperature?
Unless a cold front or some other major weather feature is coming through, you should forecast minimum temperatures by estimating the amount of nighttime cooling and subtracting that number from the previous maximum temperature.

For example, suppose a given station cools 25 F under ideal conditions. If the daytime high was 75 F, the nighttime low would be expected to be 50 F.

Although I have given some rough rules for which stations are most susceptible to temperature inversions, every station is different, and the best way to predict how much the temperature will cool under given wind conditions is by using experience. Check back to a previous night with similar conditions. How much did it cool then? If you can't find a matching day, you can still sometimes get a good sense of what might happen from a station's recent weather history.

Building up some experience on how much a station cools at night is one of the main reasons for watching a station's weather one or two weeks before one has to forecast for it.

For some very vague guidelines, which I wouldn't even follow because they vary so much from station to station, try this:

Calm conditions: temperature will drop 20-30 F from the afternoon high to the overnight low.

Light to moderate winds: temperature will drop 15-20 F from the afternoon high to the overnight low.

Strong winds: temperature will drop 10-15 F from the afternoon high to the overnight low.

Atlantic SST has cooled off nicely. There are strong NE trades now, and the sea is 6 ft chop everywhere. Keeping things here in the low 80's but very pleasant. Long may it last.
Afternoon everybody,

It's been overcast and pretty still here since about 10:30 a. m. local time. Temps are still fairly warm - upper 70s - but I'm hoping that will cool off nicely tomorrow.

It has been an unusually warm and wet winter here so far. I'm interested to see if the projected near normal to slightly cooler temperatures for the rest of the season actually pan out . . .
Baha, remind me, Baha ? or Bahama ?
OK I should of seem this. It must be Bahama or you would call yourself BaJa.
The brain is on "pause " right now. Not a problem........
I have to re-activate in an hour and a half. Time for a cold beer...........
196. ryang
Hello Pottery.
see my blog.just updated.
Pottery,

Your side of the isthmus . Nassau, Bahamas. I've been looking at the local radar, which shows a substantial line of clouds moving through. No rain so far, though.

Current Forecast for the area:

PUBLIC FORECAST FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT SUNDAY JANUARY 28, 2007

WARNINGS:

GENERAL SITUATION: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST AND RACE THROUGH THE ISLANDS TODAY.

FOR: NORTHWEST
WEATHER: INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THE BOATERS: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
WINDS: SOUTHEASTERLY AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS SHIFTING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SEAS : 6 TO 9 FEET

DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURE: 82F 28C
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE: 68F 20C
Hi Ryang......


Baha, rough seas and all. Wind to 20 knts, sounds wintery to me man .
....and dropping from 82 to 65 ? Get on the woollies..........
....sorry, 68. Still, no lounging in the moonlit sea this evening.
Ryang, hows the climate in the north there ?
I'm predicting an intensely active hurricane season in the Atlantic. Namely that the Sahara dust is going to be the most intensely active player, eating everything that comes of Africa that dares to show any potential at all....
204. ryang
Very Cold.Come to my blog.I am talking about my TEMP there.
205. ryang
Pottery NO.The I.T.C.Z is forecated to rise more to the north.The sahara dust will not be a major factor this year.
Ryang, I left a note on yr. blog. And further, I dont believe that the forcast is correct for the ITCZ and the dust. But we shall see.......
Geez,

This is a pretty non-wintry rain event right now. Only thing missing is the SE wind LOL.

Thing is, pottery, it's not FEELING much like 68 . . . well, with the rain it's now cooling off a bit. Usually we average arount 65 at night in the winter, but it's barely gotten below 70 here so far this winter.

I know I shouldn't complain, but I actually went out and bought a new winter coat (not really a coat, but the equivalent for around here :) last month. I'd like to have a reason to wear it this year . . .

And the rain is practically over before I even finish this comment.
Hey Baha, welcome to the world of unpreditctable predictions. Strange business, the weather. I love it for that very reason.......
I'm out till later................
I hear Siberia is coming.......
Gotta Get one of These I Guess!...6


Click the learn more button to go to the website. I encourage everyone to check out the Tesla electric car. Amazing!!!!!
215. Inyo
Still getting light/moderate rain in Ventura, we're at around 2 inches now. Low hasnt moved a bit. We may get 3 or 4 before its over but LA still has had barely any.
Very cold temps in alot of places showing up in the 12z GFS...

SEE HERE
hi again,im getting held up trying to figure out how to work this new PC.
218. ryang
Hi TS2.
1032mb ridging in SE La...Impressive there.H23
hi ryan,how are you
Temps to slowly begin dropping...

THE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY EXITED THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE
SUITE OF GUIDANCE HANDLED THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM VERY WELL...BOTH
WITH EXPECTED WEATHER AND TIMING OF THE FRONTAL APPROACH AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ENTERING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NOW THE
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO DROP. MONDAY MORNING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S INLAND
AREAS...TO UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 COASTAL REGIONS.

Lastest model guidance trending a tad warmer.
222. ryang
I am well.You got rain last night.
223. ryang
Hi 23.
yes i did
good afternoon H23
Hey whats going on guys?

By the way what kind of pc did u get thunderstorm2?
Nothing Much for me H23

Its some kind of Dell PC
228. ryang
By the way what kind of pc did u get thunderstorm2?


I was going to ask,oh well.LOL
Anything good happen on this blog while i was away
Great choice...

I have an e machine with 512mb and 160gb.I also have a 19inch acer flat screen conneted to it.Also own a sony vaio laptop.
I had a struggle getting the internet installed in it. I went to sleep at 3am yesterday after fiddling with it
Not Much on the blog besides the very cool temps the will be takeing place over the next 2-3 days.
Glad u got it hooked up.
Winter is now well underway

Im glad too,GOD!!!!
235. ryang
That front that passed thorugh last night was hammering central and nothern florida.
Some places will be seeing incredible cold in a week or so if this is right (this shows the average temperature for an entire week):



Parts of the northern U.S. may see an average temperature below zero for the second week (lows may be much lower).
It was battering on my window. I put music on so it would drown out the sound,it didn't work
I have to say im glad your back STL. I got your e-mail on WU BTW
239. ryang
It was battering on my window. I put music on so it would drown out the sound,it didn't work


LOL
Thanks, Thunderstorm2
your welcome
Statement as of 2:29 PM EST on January 28, 2007


... Wind Chill Advisory in effect from 3 am to 10 am EST Monday...

The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued a Wind Chill
Advisory... which is in effect from 3 am to 10 am EST Monday.

Reinforcing cold air will overspread the area tonight. Gusty
northwest winds will combine with temperatures falling into the
mid 30s to lower 40s to produce unseasonably cold wind chill
readings late tonight and early Monday morning. Lowest wind chill
temperatures will range from the upper 20s in North Lake and
Volusia counties to the mid 30s in Osceola and southern Brevard
counties.

If you use a space heater... be sure to keep them away from
blankets... pillows... curtains or other combustible material.

I've already survived one of these with no heating.
243. ryang
I've already survived one of these with no heating

Not me.
244. ryang
Do you like chris gayle.
245. ryang
The cricketer from WEST INDIES.
i had to put about 5 covers over me.
Do you like chris gayle.

He's alright but im not a big fan. Do you like him?
248. ryang
I love him.
Who is your favourite cricketer?
updated my blog with info on sounding diagrams.model meteograms to come.
Whats up kris?
Who is your favourite cricketer?

Shane Warne is retires so does he count?
RU cool..GOM..Link
LaBranch Buoy Data..Link
254. ryang
Shane Warne is retires so does he count?


Your favourite from WEST INDIES.
Lake Ponchatrain view, Causeway Bridge. Link
Your favourite from WEST INDIES.

oh sorry didn't understand. I don't really know because i only watch cricket if England are playing and if they are going to loose so i don't know about the West Indies players
257. ryang
I will be back later.
This is defeinetly what a typical Michigan winter should be like

"How does snow rates 1-2 inches per hour with nearly 2 inches accumulating along with white out conditions and 70 car pile ups sound in Detroit?"

Quoted by me.
I got to go take care of other things. Bye
wfreek~ Here's your pile up.
ty skyepony.
Freezing Child

SCOTLAND is on the brink of a power crisis after an accident at one of the country's biggest electricity plants massively reduced supplies to the national grid.

Thousands Still Without Power in Okla.


Torrential rain and flash floods this week wreaked havoc in Angola, Mozambique, Zambia and Malawi, leaving 81 Angolans and five Mozambicans dead.

In Mozambique, 3 500 people are reported to have been without shelter earlier this week, in Angola 1 300 families have lost their homes, and in Malawi 20 villages are still under water.

(Video) Tesla Roadster Demonstration

Vast petroleum reserves in the Arctic are a key source of world energy, but development must also protect the fragile cold-weather environment and curb greenhouse gases, Norways oil minister said Monday.

The International Energy Agency estimates that carbon capture and storage could contribute 20 to 28 percent of total emission reductions by 2050.


& homeless shelters are open about everywhere, from Florida on north.


264. HCW
Setup is there that we could see a storm just like this over the next 2 weeks

2001-2002 snow storm


http://www.hardcoreweather.com
Link
99S is now 10S NONAME ~40kts, 994mbs


new invest alert~93S


Indeed skyepony but thankfully not a threat right now to land.Track

i see loop eddys in the Caribbean do you see the same thing??? and i see a few eddy starting to pop up in the gulf

lol
LOL... No need to watch the Loop Current at this time of the year... the Gulf is freezing as far as tropical storms are concerned (only the Loop Current is at 80F or higher and there is tremendous shear).
The loop in the EP looks the worst.

Noname there, looks alot like the other storms that have formed in that area this year.
Took a pic off skys over my house earlier this evening before the sun went down as the cool air was begining to spill in.

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
i see may be 3 looop eddys in the gulf this year
The CMC thinks that 10S will become an incredibly powerful storm, which is not a bad thing in this case because it is nowhere near land:



Compare to some past storms.
Taz, that map wll be totally different by the time hurricane season arrives; one of those eddies is a dying eddy that was shed last July.
23~Had neat clouds here too today.

Michael~ Just makes it all the more fun to watch..
That article I posted easlier got me looking at 30 day rain averages & anomilies on Trmm for S Afica & the globe.

Scrolled down a little & realized the ENSO precipitation index has gone negative, signalling ENSO gone cold. Comparing it to the not updated bimonthly, it took a dive.
the Heat Potential in the Caribbean seem to be geting a little higher evere day
looool
Time will tell if the CMC is correct...More Here


This one is 3 hrs newer & gives a good referance to it's spot on the glodal. Been heading south, forecasted to continue that way. Luckly, it doesn't look headed for the flooded out S Africa.

One more image...


Cut off low VS Dry air down here in So Cal. Dry air has won the battle. At one time there was an 80% chance of rain today. Doesnt look like anyone south of LA got rain today.
lightning10 here's all sorts of Satalite of that. Did you read latest west Coast blog about the blocking Rex & how hard it is to forecasts those cut off lows? Good stuff there.
sky what do you mean by this????

realized the ENSO precipitation index has gone negative, signalling ENSO gone cold
That means that the pattern of precipitation is more like what you might expect during slightly negative neutral conditions (not quite La Nina, which is -0.5 or lower). SST anomalies still support a weak El Nino; the negative precipitation anomalies indicate that it is weakening.
Ya I did read it. I know cut off lows are very hard to predict. Its just been so dry here and when it looked so good for rain earlyer in the day and nothing comes of it its disapointing just like all of winter so far.

There is a lot of moisture in the air but at the surface its a different story. Due Points are in the low to mid 40's. Humidity is much higher then it was earlyer but still around 60-80% in the valley areas.
wish means what??? do we have neutral conditions or do we now have La Nina conditions or this about???
Taz~ it's an indicator. We are still in El Nino, it just says don't be suprised if it's Neutral in 30 days.
I thought it was interesting. Guess it doesn't help drought frustrations after this tease none.
i think El Nino will be gone in monday update and we may have Neutral now but will wait in tell mondays update
I would take issue with your equating an "expert judgment" with a "theory." Theory is what is used to develop the computer forecast models and the general circulation models. Some experts like Judith Curry and Kerry Emmanuel do hypothesize a connection between sea surface temperatures and tropical cyclone intensity. The theory has not really been developed to the point where we can model the relationship, however. For that matter, we cannot really model individual storms with the large grid cells in most of the GCMs.