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Winter grips North America

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:23 PM GMT on December 17, 2007

We've got a real winter on our hands in North America this December. The latest in series of storms that has pounded the continent left nearly a foot of snow over portions of Michigan, New York, Massachusetts, Maine, and Canada Sunday. Heavy snow collapsed the roof of a pharmacy in Boston, injuring one person yesterday. Heavy ice accumulations were a problem in Pennsylvania, where ice and high winds brought down the 800-foot high TV tower of WNEP-TV. A possible tornado associated with the storm's trailing cold front swept through Land 'O Lakes, Florida early Sunday morning, destroying a jail and flipping cars. No one was injured, and the inmates were moved to safety before the storm hit.


Figure 1. Departure of surface temperature from average for the period December 1-15, 2007. Note that the northern U.S. has seen below average temperatures, but the southern U.S. has seen above average temperatures. Temperatures across most of Europe and Asia have been much above average. Temperatures over ocean areas are not reliable in this data set, and should be ignored. Image credit: NOAA ESRL.

This winter's jet stream pattern
When this year's record sea ice melt in the Arctic occurred, I predicted another late arrival to winter over the Northern Hemisphere, because of all the extra heat and moisture the loss of sea ice would provide to the polar atmosphere. Well, winter arrived pretty much on time over North America. We've seen temperatures near average during the first half of December (Figure 1). However, almost all of Europe and Asia have seen a delayed start to winter. First half of December temperatures have been 3-6°C (5-10°F) above average across most of Europe, and even warmer over much of Asia. While the ski areas of the Alps have gotten much more bountiful snow than last winter, the lack of cold temperatures and snow is hurting the tourist industry in many regions, such as Finland. In Eastern Siberia, the lack of usual sea ice has led to temperatures up to 15°C (27°F) above average during the first half of December. The missing sea ice between Russia and Alaska has also brought unusual storminess and low pressure to the region during November and December. This may have deflected the position of the jet stream, bringing colder conditions to North America than the rest of the Northern Hemisphere. The current La Nina event and natural variability are also involved, and it is difficult to say which effect is mostly responsible for the current jet stream pattern.

What does the rest of December hold in store? Well, the latest 16-day forecast from the GFS model shows no major changes to the jet stream pattern. Expect a continuation of normal winter weather over North America, and much warmer than average conditions over Europe and Asia.

Jeff Masters
Ice Storm
Ice Storm
Six days after the storm, the ice has not melted yet. We spent five days without electricity. The sun finally popped out in the afternoon and the ice began to melt.
After 14 inches of snow and 50MPH wind...
After 14 inches of snow and 50MPH wind...
Near 36 inches of snow in December... And winter isn't started yet...

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.
Thanks, Dr. M!

Morning, CCHS...

The snowcover in the United States even before the last two storms had increased so that together with some new snows in Asia, the snowcover across the northern hemisphere, which had been running below normal for much of the fall, had risen to above normal for the first time this year.

more here.

Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket
Thanks for the update, Doc Masters! :~)

Here in Vermont we have 15" of new snow on top of the remaining foot of snow we already had.

It is blowing around today ~ icy cold for shoveling.

Took our friends four hours to make the 1.5 hour trip to and from the airport last night to pick up a loved one whose plane came in after all. The runways were pretty good but the roadways were a mess.
Dr. Masters, do you think that the negative tilt of the NAO is effecting the weather on the east Coast?
Paul Kocin found that whenver the NAO went into negative levels a major east coast storm had developed. What I find even more interesting is how the NAO hasn't even gone down to its lowest levels near -2 until after this storm went bye. Could there be another major east coast storm this weekend?
All I can say is that I'm happy I live in Florida...it's COLD up there!

Sunday morning was pretty impressive here in the Bay Area. I was on standby for work in the Emergency Ops Center and awake at 3:30 to watch the squall line move into the area. Lots of heavy rain and lightning, and the tornado stayed north of us.
Good morning Flood. How are you doing this morning? How did the storm system affect you?
Tampa, isn't it cold for you this morning? I thought there were freeze warnings in Tampa.
As usual...the heave squall line in SW Florida (cape coral) broke up as she approached land. Just a windy affair. We need rain so bad before our real dry season hits.
30 degrees this morning in Ocala-barn roof covered in frost. That was quite a temperature drop from the 80 degrees or so on Saturday afternoon.
SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES FROM 200 AM EST FRI DEC
14 2007 THROUGH 300 AM EST MON DEC 17 2007...
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters. Harrisburg, Pa had iceing an power outages. No snow to speak of. Temp is 29F at 11:30 AM EST. Was not able to get another snow fall in my count.
As usual, great synopsis Storm.
winter is also down here in the Caribbean.....with almost 2 weeks of below average lows and very chilly nights and mornings.
Tropical Cyclone 97S

1500 UTC DEC 17 2007

Pattern: Not clearly identify due to a circular dense mass obscuring pattern evolution.

Adjustment: Central Cold Cover (CCC) Pattern will be used.

Current Intensity: CI 2.2

Dvorak Tends:
0030 UTC DEC 17 - CI 1.5
1030 UTC DEC 17 - CI 1.7
1500 UTC DEC 17 - CI 2.2


We had our first freeze of the season here--31.3 degrees at my house. As the young folk say nowadays--- w00t!
Wow.......Fujiwhara effect

A winter storm dumped more than 30 centimetres of snow on the Toronto area yesterday, with some parts of southern Ontario receiving as many as 50 centimetres of snow. Toronto usually receives approximately 30 cm of snow during the entire month of December.


Yesterday’s snowfall likely trumped the previous record of 28 cm set on Dec. 11, 1944.



Atlantic Canada now braces for nasty weather.

the TMI sensor captured the excellent curved band pattern of 98S which is clearly evident. 0.25 arc which corresponds to CI 1.0.


Great info Weather. For all of you in the Northern half of the U.S., come down to Texas, we are warm (relatively, in the 50-70), no snow. :P I'm bragging because come summer we will be suffering and you can write about how nice the weather is in your neck of the woods.

I remember the days in Georgia when we had some bad ice storms and lost power. In the 1980's we had a week with near zero. The water heater, located in the garage, froze solid! What a surprise that was.

Hope everyone remembers to take care of your toes and fingers. We don't want any frost bitten weather undergrounders. :)

Catfuraplenty
has all the visible characteristics of a potent mid-latitude storm


Look at all the different types of clouds: stratocumulus, cumulus, altocumulus, altostratus, stratus

Good afternoon,to all,and yes it is cold here in massachuesetts,thinking back to last december with many days in the 50's.
Not only is it cooler here in KY, its wetter as well. The average rainfall for the month has already been topped for the second time in three months, and there is plenty of month left. We did have an all time record for the highest ever recorded temp of 74F a few days ago, but the temps are continuing to be below average here, but still no snow! Envy is setting in seeing all these winter wonderland pics. We did have ice on Saturday, and a burst of snow early Sunday, but it just amounted to .03 of an inch of snow instead of the 3" predicted. Am I seeing the temps rise in late January and early Feburary again as a prediction... perhaps.
Most of us know that tropical cyclones have a significant warm core in the mid-upper levels of the atmopshere due to the release of latent heat of condensation. The warm-core of a tropical cyclone is illustrated below in this AMSU Radial Height Cross section of Celina (04R). The weak warm core of this tropical cyclone is located between 9.5 KM and 13.5 KM in the troposphere.

I have to chuckle with so many people looking to see some winter weather,I would love to send you some of mine,1st half of December has been nothing but wintery.
Here's the warm core structure again on AMSU-A channel 7 (200 mb) onboard the noaa-15 spacecraft.


afternoon folks
afternoon bone
Merry Christmas to everyone. I hope the new year treats you great. I've been tied up a lot with my family and extended family and have stuck to lurking in the pantry. (Some of us are old enough to remember the La Choy cooked in dragon fire commercials.) I got my taste of Global Warming last night and more is expected here in SE Ga. It's probably warm over at St. Simon's Island, tho.lol I hope everyone is having a blessed day. Back to lurking.
hey 456
Well Bone how did you fair with the storm? I made it home Fri nite, but it was a no go Sat. The snow plows got us out yesterday.I only live a half mile off the hiway, but it is one hell of a trip when you have 3 foot drifts!
I wouldn't mind at all if the current pattern continues for the entire winter and more things like this happen (especially in January-March, when the really big snow events have occurred):

...DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS SET FOR ST. LOUIS AND COLUMBIA...

A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 6.9 INCHES FELL AT ST. LOUIS LAMBERT INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT DECEMBER 15TH 2007. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.8 INCHES SET
IN 1989.

A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 5.4 INCHES FELL AT COLUMBIA REGIONAL AIRPORT
DECEMBER 15TH 2007. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 3.0 INCHES SET IN 1987.

LAMBERT FIELD (KSTL) RECORDED 6.9 INCHES OF SNOWFALL FOR DECEMBER 15TH 2007.
THIS RANKS AS THE FOURTH SNOWIEST DECEMBER DAY IN HISTORY!

IT HAS BEEN ALMOST 5 YEARS SINCE LAMBERT FIELD HAS RECORDED THIS MUCH
SNOW ON A SINGLE DAY.
Hello everyone. This is my first comment with the site.

The cold front basically brought some pretty cold temps here. This morning when I checked both local weather stations it was 30°F here in Baton Rouge. The frost was welcome considering the last week or so has felt more like Spring!

On Saturday we had one good storm and it was overall just a windy day. Winds stayed between 20 - 30 mph all day.
hey GB. faired well through this storm. around 4 1/2 inches of snow and about a 1/4 inch of ice on top of it. Most of the "snow" was actually fine sleet. It started by me around 2am Saturday night and lasted till 5pm Sunday. The stuff on the ground is frozen solid, can walk on it without sinking. Roads are clear and salted as of this morning.

Kinda wished for a bigger storm but watching the radar my town kept being overrun with a dry slot. Also the warm air overran my area pretty quickly which limited precip amounts.
Our best guess is about 12 inches. Really hard to judge with all the drifting.
Hi everyone,

As I predicted Sat night, here in SE Fla, Broward County, we got nothing. No rain, no real wind, no storms..but we did finally get in some cold air last night and today we are all in sweats! It is nice to open all the windows and sliding doors and turn off a/c LOL


and wear our sweat pants and sweat shirts and warm socks LOL

So sorry to hear about the bad weather in other parts of the state and all of the major bad weather in the US.

We didn't even get any measurable rainfall..just a sprinkle yesterday while I was out running.


Happy Monday everyone!!
I haven't heard, did some of the areas in th SE US get some good rainfall to help with our drought?
Just a quick point re. temperatures in Europe. We've had a pretty cold snap over much of the UK (not the NW, though) over the last week to ten days, much cooler temperatures than we've had at this time of year for quite a while, I think. The NAO has also been trending negative for most of December, and looks set to stay negative or low/neutral for a while yet, so we may get some v. low temps in the near future (although not as bad in England as you have them in the US at present). Nick
afternoon ,bone
Welcome hondaguy! I hope that you enjoy blogging on this site and that you learn as much as we have learned regarding the weather. If you have any questions, you could always send me a message and I will be glad to answer them.
Hey NE. How was it up your way?
Pat, StormW, mail call.
great TERRA Sat image of the Northeast.

it was pretty nasty,got 6" to start,then about half inch of rain late morn into the afternoon which flooded the streets,then a flash freeze last night.not a lot of fun and all that ontop of 9" last thursday.
hondaguy, welcome to our cozy corner
aewsome cloud streets in those TERRA Modis images
Hey New England guys, what if we had a storm on Wednesday? The GFS continues to advertise a set up called the norlun trough, where a coastal front sets up and gives isolated areas a lot of snow. The GFS out put for precip in 48 hours in the 84 hour window upto 1.25". This is always something to watch and my blog has the link, which I just updated.
so many of you did get rain and/or snow sleet, etc. any amounts that can help the SE Drought?

hi everyone and the new blogger!

Gams
SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN TROPICAL CYCLONES AND DISTURBANCE SUMMARIES - AS OF 18:00 UTC


Tropical Cyclone Advisory #22
==============================
As of 1800 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Celina [993 hPa] located near 20.3ºS 60.7ºE, or 515 kms east of the coast of Reunion had 10 min sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts up to 60 knots. The moderate tropical storm is reported as moving southwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: 3.0

Gale Warning Area
================
30 NM from the radius of the center

extending to:
150 NM southwestern quadrant from the center
110 NM southeastern quadrant from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 21.1S 59.1E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 21.8S 57.7E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)

Additional Information
=======================
The system has slowed down in speed. Celina is expected to keep tracking southwestward within the next 12 to 24 hours then recurve westward then west-southwestward undergoing the rebuilding subtropical high pressures. System has probably reached its maximum intensity and environmental conditions are expected to be less favorable with a weak polar inflow linked to the shifting trough in its south and a bad energetic potential on cooler sea surface temperatures.

-----

Tropical Disturbance Summary [1800z 17Dec]
==========================================

The area of convection (97S) near 11.5S 88.1E or 530 NM west of Cocos Island. Animated enhanced infrared imagery and SSMI Microwave Image shows a partially exposed low level circulation center with deep convective banding reveals a synoptic scale upper level anticyclone to the east is providing good poleward outflow. The disturbance has also moved under an area of weak to moderate vertical wind shear which has allowed the convection to form closer to the low level circulation center.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 20-25 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1004 mb. The potential of this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains FAIR.

----

Tropical Disturbance Summary [1800z 17Dec]
==========================================

An area of convection (98S) near 9.1S 81.1E or 520 NM east-northeast of Diego Garcia. Animated enhanced infrared imagery and SSMI Microwave Image shows a partially exposed low level circulation center with poorly organized deep convection over the western quadrant. Upper level analysis reveals a marginal environment with moderate easterly vertical wind shear which is shearing the convection west of the low level circulation center.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 15-20 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1006 mb. The potential of this disturbance to from into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is POOR.
53. dean2007 7:50 PM GMT on December 17, 2007
Hey New England guys, what if we had a storm on Wednesday? The GFS continues to advertise a set up called the norlun trough, where a coastal front sets up and gives isolated areas a lot of snow. The GFS out put for precip in 48 hours in the 84 hour window upto 1.25". This is always something to watch and my blog has the link, which I just updated.

Yeh,have watched the models,getting a little more robust with this setup,going to have to watch this closesly. 1.25 sounds a bit much though.
I don't think so and accuweather.com has a headline on this situation although I will get rain as 850mb temps are not all that cold.
ewww NE that does sound bad. I would rather have all rain or all snow. I am sick of this mixed precip crap.
Hang on tight in the East and Northeast thru the 27th...The GFSx 10-day has a covey of Lows traversing East thru the period. Link
I agree Bone,much rather have one or the other,but both just makes a mess.Last thursday they let us out early right into the storm,my 15 min ride home took me 3 hrs.
Bring on the storms, I want them to be snow, although its not quite cold enough whenever the storms come through so its all rain.
Hey,Bone,what did you see for pressure,I had 28.95 last evening.
Yea guys been looking at the long range models and its a train for the next few weeks. Looks like every 3 to 5 days something comes through.

Gotta love a negative NAO
I expect this pattern to last right through the month.
Lowest I got was 28.56 at 2:37pm

66. JLPR
Hey guys got some new photos just to invite you all to check them out and rate them =)
just click on my handle to go to my blog then click on my pictures
88th AMS Annual Meeting
Link




New Orleans, LA
20-24 January 2008


The 2008 Annual Meeting is being organized around the broad theme of Enhancing the Connectivity between Research and Applications for the Benefit of Society. This is an important topic that will shape our weather, ocean, climate, and environmental enterprise for many years to come. Our nations economy, well-being, and safety will depend on successful efforts in this area from all sectors of our Society academia, private, and government and will require all of us to participate in and be engaged in discussing how we might enhance mutual interactions between research and applications. A Presidential Forum entitled "Hurricane Katrina: Looking back to look ahead will consist of presentations from the weather community on the meteorological event, followed by diverse presentations on the social impacts. The Forum will be accompanied by a special 2-day Hurricane Symposium. Several important and complementary events have been planned to leverage the interest, participation, and expertise in this theme, including the following:

* A special WeatherFest focus on hurricanes and other tropical storms on Sunday
* An opening plenary session at noon on Monday (with a cash and carry lunch available) featuring Mayor Nagin of New Orleans
* Two special named symposia for Dr. Richard Hallgren on Monday and the late Professor Peter Hobbs on Thursday; a separate luncheon for each will be held in their honor on the day of their symposium
* Joint sessions to begin each day with brief presentations by representatives from selected Scientific and Technological Activities Commissions, followed by an interactive discussion with the audience
* A half-day Data Assimilation Forum targeted on educating the broad AMS membership
* The Fifth GOES Users Conference
* A 1-day session examining the "Impacts of 2007's Weather: Major Stories of the Year
* The AMS Student Conference and Career Fair to take place on the Saturday and Sunday prior to the Meeting
* An opportunity to tour the Katrina-affected neighborhoods and volunteer for helping the local New Orleans Habitat for Humanity

Program and Schedules for the Event Link
Program and Schedules for the Event Link
Thanks pat
nice cross sectional shot of yesterdays storm from Cloudsat. Near its peak.



28.56 thats pretty incredible for a non tropical low.
Yea was kinda Low hehehe

one thing to remeber NE thats at 1200 feet elevation. The guage is calibrated FYI.
Link
I find this quite interesting!
Bone,whats your take on the storm for wednesday or wed. night.
looking at the models now NE. first impressions arent impressive right now.
Lowest pressure I found at an official NWS site so far was 28.59" / 968.1mb @ Houlton ME. Have not looked through quite all the stations yet.
after looking at the model packages I see a limited precip event for wednesday. temp profiles appear cold enough for an all snow event north of NYC, with a rain/snow transitional zone in NJ with all rain south.

I am looking at the longer range now.. something appears to be on the horizon for sunday.
75. Bonedog 9:17 PM GMT on December 17, 2007
looking at the models now NE. first impressions arent impressive right now.

Ok,although some concern up here if winds come off the water,could generate ocean effect snow.
Always have to watch these clipper systems.
Yeh,I saw some hints for late weekend,like you said,pattern is every 3 to 5 days,although seems to be 3 days right now.
winds dont look to be much of a factor. 5 to 10knts according to the models.
Thats favorable for Ocean Effect Snow if temps are cold enough.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE FEATURED AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
QUEBEC SLOWLY BUILDS S INTO NEW ENGLAND. MARGINAL INSTABILITY MEANS
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN
EASTERN MA AND IN AREAS OF OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT SUCH AS WORCESTER
HILLS. OTHERWISE A RATHER CLOUDY PERIOD IS IN STORE
Thanks cchsweatherman. I love the weather and have been watching/enjoying it for years. I def will have questions and probably start discussions while here.

Thanks again!
all I know is that I woke up this morning and in western broward our temps were in the low 40's with the windchill added in. A fairly nice day, cept for those of us who went to bed last night with it in the 60's and woke up freezing our rear ends off cause we left the windows open.
dean temps will be cold enough anywher north of Long Island.

The only problem with wednesday/thursdays system is it is realitively dry. The forcast suites range from zero to .25 inch QPFs. If anything expect snow showers around the area. Only spot I see a potential for accumulations is Eastern Maine.

what can someone tell me about this second supposed system for next week. Are we looking at another cold snap before christmas or not?
Cold snap yes, snow maybe!

HPC DISCUSSIONS AND MAPS FOR DAY THREE - WEDNESDAY:
NEW ENG...

A SHRTWV TROF AND ASSOC WEAK SFC LOW/TROF IS FCST TO REACH
EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND CROSS NEW ENG BY WED NIGHT.
THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE INDICATING THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRC
MAY REDEVELOP NEAR THE COAST OF ERN NEW ENG ON THURSDAY AND HELP
TO ENHANCE THE ONSHORE FLOW NORTH OF THIS FEATURE. OVERALL THERE
APPEARS TO BE GROWING SUPPORT FOR THIS SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE GFS STILL ONE OF THE MORE ROBUST SOLNS AND
ALSO SPREADING PCPN FARTHEST SOUTH INTO S CNTRL NEW ENG. WILL
RECOMMEND A SOLN TWD A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/ECMWF CAMP WHICH
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MDT TO HVY SNOWFALL FRM COASTAL NH NEWD UP
INTO DOWNEAST MAINE. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF...THEIR WETTER TRENDS...AND OVERALL GOOD VERIFICATION OF
LATE...WILL INDICATE A HIGH RISK OF 4 INCH AMTS ACRS PARTS OF NRN
NEW ENG WITH PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO COASTAL AREAS OF MAINE.

Link
Link
Link
Link
plywood. Lows in florida should creep down to the mid 40s only. If thats a cold snap then yes. Wed night Thursday night then again sunday night
well at least the pros are with me on the what I see in the models :)
Bonedog, the HPC makes reference to the ECWMF and the GFS as the models to follow, so they did a compromise. The GFS brings 1.25" QPF to coastal Maine and then .50 to .75" QPF to Cape Cod, MA which profiles should be marginal for a chance of snow. So by that yes the GFS has been showing more precip.
For now. The HPC favors coastal Maine for precip, but are not sure how far south the good precip amounts go to.
Yea the GFS was the most wet. The eta was the dyest.

Most model suits (blends) show an averaged QPF of .25 to .5. Thats in Maine though.

The over 1 inch QPFs seem way to high. System would need to bomb out to pull in that much moisture and ATM I dont see it happening in any model package.
Ok bonedog, what do you think about any snow before Christmas here on Cape Cod, MA or would that be a wet one or dry one again. So far this year we had 10" of snow, I believe it surpassed last year's total already.
Snow in the NE usually means a lot of rain in NorCal. This has not been happening so far this year. La Nina winters also usually meaning above average rainfall in the northern half of Calif. for the late fall/early winter time frame, but that has not happened either. Not sure what the reason is, but something unusual is happening. We are supposed to get a lot of rain in the next week if the GFS and other models are correct, but I have seen the models back off or fail to verify on QPF time and time again so far this rain year. We shall see.
The GFS has now become more robust, with QPF around 2" just off the Maine Coast. This is interesting and if it verified those areas could received around 24" if the GFS was correct.
dean I would say there may be a shot of winter again before Christmas. The long range models that verified out to sunday 12z show a rather large system in the Northeast again.

Being so far out will have to monitor the model trends. Right now the temp profile shows it may be cold enough for snows north and rain south. Thats the best resolution right now. As the weekend approaches the more refined models will be able to pick up on it and give a more detailed resolution as to who gets what.
I feel the GFS is too moist. not enough of the other models show it so it may be an outlier
OK Bonedog. I guess we will have to see what models are saying tomorrow.
yea tuesday afternoon (18z) the high resolution models will be far enough out to see the system.

Most of the hi-res models only look 18 to 24hrs. There are a couple that look 36hrs but their reliablity drops after the 26hr mark historically
This is for Wednesday's storm right Bonedog?
yes dean for wednesday/thursday storm.


Sundays wont be picked up until 18Z friday
Man, its great to be a New England professional sports fan. Red Sox won their second WS in four years, the Patriots are 14-0, the Celtics are 20-2 and even the Bruins are 18-11 which puts them the third best team in the NHL third to Ottawa and Detroit.
yea thanks for hogging all the sports dean :)~
Where are you from bonedog?
New Jersey dean
Remember...what goes up must come down.
LOL yea Ivan and when they all do everyone up there will be saying curse again LOL
no i will enjoy it while it lasts and i won't say its a curse.

the 18z gfs long rang around the 27th to 31st is interesting set up.
Tropical Invest 97S

2300 UTC DEC 17 2007

Pattern: Curved band 0.55 arc

Current Intensity: CI 2.7

Adjustments: MET Agrees

Final Estimate: CI 2.7

Dvorak Trends:

0030 UTC DEC 17 - CI 1.5
1030 UTC DEC 17 - CI 1.7
1500 UTC DEC 17 - CI 2.2
2300 UTC DEC 17 - CI 2.7

111. IKE
Didn't see this posted anywhere...from the Tallahassee,FL. weather office....

" Public Information Statement

Statement as of 4:06 PM EDT on December 17, 2007

... Two tornadoes confirmed in southwest and south central Georgia on
Saturday evening...

NWS storm surveys were conducted in Worth... Turner and early
counties following the severe weather event on Saturday.

... Storm survey #1 in Worth and Turner counties...

An NWS storm survey was conducted Sunday afternoon to assess the
damage caused by a tornado that moved across Worth and Turner
counties Saturday night. The survey determined that one tornado
touched down in central Worth County and continued along an
intermittent path northeastward into central Turner County.

In Worth County...
the tornado touched down around 905 PM EST about 3 miles west of
Sylvester just south of U.S. Highway 82. The tornado moved
northeastward through the community of Isabella. Along this path the
tornado damaged 29 homes... 6 of them suffered major damage. Several
irrigation systems were toppled. 1 Peanut warehouse building was
damaged. The path width of this tornado was estimated to be 75 yards
and was rated an EF-0 with maximum winds up to 75 mph.

In Turner County...
the tornado touched down again just southwest of Ashburn and caused
moderate damage in the city of Ashburn. The tornado destroyed four
single wide Mobile homes and damaged thirty-nine frame homes.
Several empty tractor trailers were damaged or destroyed. Several
businesses in the town suffered damage. Just northeast of
Ashburn... a large area of Pine trees were snapped. The tornado
continued northeast and approached Interstate 75 near the 83 mile
marker. As the tornado crossed the Interstate... an 18-wheel truck
was tossed off the Road and down a 50 foot embankment. The driver
and only occupant of the truck died.
This tornado had a maximum path
width of 125 yards and is rated an EF-1 with maximum winds of 105
mph.

No other injuries or fatalities were reported with this tornado.

... Storm survey #2 in Early County...

An NWS storm survey was conducted Monday afternoon in Early County.
This survey confirmed that a weak EF-0 tornado briefly touched down
in north central Early County 3.5 miles northwest of Blakely. The
first area surveyed west of Blakely found a destroyed addition to a
home. This damage was caused by straight line winds. The second
survey area was northwest of town centered around damage to a single
wide Mobile home. This damage was determined to be caused by a a
weak EF-0 tornado. The path width of this tornado was about 50 yards
wide with estimated maximum winds of 70 mph."
112. Inyo
Why does the NWS hazards assessment show 'severe drought' in areas that are also forecast to have above average rainfall? weird.
because even though the rainfall will be above average it will not bring the area out of the drought.

most areas will go from extreme to severe but not make up their deficit enough to be considered out of a draught
Evening, everybody.

We finally have a "real" cold weather event today . . . LOL I had to break out the jacket today, since temps here never got above 80 degrees. This is a welcome change from the summer-like temps of last week.

Tonight it's supposed to dip into the 60s in Nassau [shivering]. Brrr . . . . that's really cold!

LOL

LOL Baha what would you do in 19* weather with single digit windchills? LOL
115. Bonedog 7:26 PM EST on December 17, 2007
LOL Baha what would you do in 19* weather with single digit windchills? LOL


Stay inside.
LOL

gotta love the tropics ;)
Bone, I've been in weather like that once or twice (when I was at university in NC), and I admit to going outside and getting into snowfights on one or two occasions . . .
lol the weather channel reported that it was only going down to 56 in west palm beach tonight and its all ready 55, usually the temperature ends up being in between this websites predictions and the weather channel
Ike, could you imagine if this past weekend's events, had occured during March?

Good evening all.
Its been cold for a while now. Cant make snowballs though snow is frozen solid under about a 1/2 inch of ice.
I guess if you took a hammer, bonedog, and pounded thru the ice, you could get to the snow...but then the shards of ice would probably be dangerous in a snowball fight.

Yeah, you're right, I don't know ANYTHING about cold weather.
Apparently, one tropical cyclone is absorbing the other

Moderate Tropical Storm Celina: An impressive circulation.

LOL aquak
456,you trying to Hypnotize us tonight?

As of 0000 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Celina [994 hPa] located near 20.6ºS 60.1ºE, or 445 kms east of the coast of Reunion had 10 min sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots. The moderate tropical storm is reported as moving southwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: 2.5

Gale Warning Area
================
30 NM from the radius of the center
110 NM southern quadrant from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 21.4S 58.7E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 21.7S 57.3E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)

Additional Information
=======================
The system has slowed down and showed some weakening signs. It may be downgraded to a tropical depression status later today. Celina is expected to keep on tracking southwestward within the next 12 to 24 hours and then recurve westward and west-northwest undergoing the rebuilding subtropical high pressures.

System should weaken over the forecast period.
Surface Plots near Celina

On the storms in Florida yesterday: Sirens Vs Radios
"Oviedo residents heard the alarms [sirens]loud and clear. However, NOAA weather radios [WXJ70], the alarms tuned into the Melbourne frequency, didn’t broadcast alerts."

Florida Event Reports
I did not have a report - as I watched, 5 minutes after the last gust, a large tree (dead)fell narrowly missing my boat.
Working & lurking - stay warm & watch the fires.
gnite all
Dr.Masters thank you for bone chilling update:)
Indian Ocean looks interesting tonight.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary [0530z 18Dec]
==========================================

The area of convection (97S) near 14.3S 87.8E or 550 NM west-southwest of Cocos Island. Animated enhanced multispectral satellite imagery shows a developing low level circulation center with deep convection banding on the southwestern periphery. Upper level analysis reveals that the upper level anticyclone previously located east of the system has become more coincident with the low level circulation center, providing excellent poleward outflow and increasing equatorward outflow.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 25-30 knots with a mimimum sea level pressure of 1003 mb. The potential of this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to GOOD.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert is now in effect. The alert may be re-issued, cancelled, or upgraded to a warning by 0530z 19Dec.
As of 0600 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Celina [994 hPa] located near 21.0ºS 59.8ºE, or 410 kms east of the coast of Reunion had 10 min sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots. The moderate tropical storm is reported as moving southwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: 2.5

Gale Warning Area
================
30 NM from the radius of the center
90 NM southern quadrant from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 21.5S 58.6E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 21.8S 57.1E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)

Additional Information
=======================
Celina is keeping on tracking southwestward and presents clear signs of weakening (Low level circulation center visible, centered northwest of the main active part). The system is nevertheless still classified as a tropical storm due to the intensity of the winds blowing near the center, which are estimated according to the Quikscat Satellite Data as of 0215 UTC.

The system should curve westward then west-northwestward due to the rebuilding subtropical high pressures, and come closer to Reunion Island. Weakening of the system should continue over the forecast period.
Tropical Invest 97S

1030 UTC DEC 18 2007

Pattern: 3/4 CDO with banding 1/2 degree banding for a small tropical cyclone.

Current Intensity: CF 2.0 BF 1.0 = CI 3.0

Adjustments: MET sugguests CI 2.5, but the current intensity will be kept at CI 3.0.

Final Estimate: CI 2.5/3.0

Dvorak Trends:

0030 UTC DEC 17 - CI 1.5
1030 UTC DEC 17 - CI 1.7
1500 UTC DEC 17 - CI 2.2
2300 UTC DEC 17 - CI 2.7
1030 UTC DEC 18 - CI 2.5/3.0

morning folks
Moderate Tropical Storm Celina (04R)

1030 UTC

Pattern: Shear with convection 1/2 de gree from edge.

Current Intensity: CI 2.0

Adjustments: None

Dvorak Trends:
0000 UTC 16 DEC - CI 2.0
0330 UTC 16 DEC - CI 2.5
1300 UTC 16 DEC - CI 2.5
1730 UTC 16 DEC - CI 2.5
1030 UTC 17 DEC - CI 2.3
1030 UTC 18 DEC - CI 2.0






mornin bone and all
Morning, all.

Celina is looking even better defined this morning.
Morning Storm
appears so Storm. Just got done with the 00Z runs.

Appears to be a light qpf system. downeast Maine and Coastal NH appear to be the focal point. GFS appears too moist (.75-1.00 qpf) most others keep it reasonable (.25-.5 qpf)

Timing appears 18Z wed thru 20Z thur.

Winds look to be around 10-15 on the coast 20knt open waters (gulf of maine eastward)

I didnt get a chance to look at the wavewatch graphics.

Then another system appears to be a player sunday into monday. sound familiar? LOL
The 00Z for sundays system is very messy thus far. Dont have hi-res for sundays but the 36km res model suites show a big mess

the 0-96 surge model shows tidal departures from Sandy Hook,NJ to Portland. Around 10Z Friday. Most ranges show .23 to .63 above MAT.

Highest Newport, RI to Boston
yea seemed not to verify the Low well. Most models show the main Low going northeast across Huron into Canada while developing a coastal Low off Delmarv. GFS shows the main Low coming back south across Erie and developing two coastal Lows 1)South of Hatteras. 2)Just off the NJ coast.

By 6Z Thu GFS has the Great lakes Low disapated but holds onto the two coastal Lows. The NJ low passing the 40/70, the hatteras low well offshore. By 18Z disapates NJ Low and keeps Hatteras Low well southeast of the Maritimes but shows High QPF (.5- 1.0) in Downeast Maine and NH.

0Z Friday has moisture filliung back in from CT/RI all the way to Albany and Northwards.

Very wierd scenario. I am shying away from it

Gotcha. that I didnt know.

The windfield does appear correct no matter what model you follow. With the High Pressure in place today and tomorrow retreating northwards then the approaching clipper and associated coastal Low should yeild a tight gradiant. Appears onshore flow as evident by the surge model and isobars on the models.

The MAV MOS shows 25knt offshore Gulf Of Main 12Z thursday growing to 35knt 00Z friday. Eta MOS keeps winds below 25knts throughout. MEX MOS brings winds to 40knts by 00Z Friday.
MM5 brings winds to 30Knt at the 12Z Friday.
WRF keeps winds below 25knts (averaged 15-20Knts)

97S has been upgraded to Tropical Cyclone 07S by the JTWC....and RSMC METEO FRANCE should upgrade this to 05R
07S

still trying to figure out why the GFS has such a hard time in the Northeast?

Seems it over emphasizes all parameters. Picks up cyclogenisis fairly well far out but the actual qpf, winds, ect seem overdone usually. At least thats what happened on the last 3 systems.

Been leaning to the WRF and MM5 as the better models with NAM and ECM/UKM close behind.

Actually, LOL, I blend things from each. I take bits and pieces from each as they seem to have better resolution for certain things.
No problem Storm. Glad I could help.
Morning 456
Good morning all! Hope you guys are handling the cold well. It was the second straight morning in the 40s here in Cooper City. I'm loving this weather and it looks like Christmas Eve and Christmas Day are going to feel like Christmas (for South Florida standards).

Hey 456, if you have time, could you give me a tutorial on how you derive those Cl numbers and how you recognize certain system types. I have been wanting to do analysis like that on my own for quite a while now. You could just send an email since I will be out from time to time today. It would be greatly appreciated.
morning CCH
Good morning Bonedog. How cold is it in your neck of the woods? I see what you and Storm have been discussing about this morning. You guys brought about some very good points. It is tough to throw out the GFS since, in my opinion, it is the most reliable computer model out there.
Test received weathermanwannabe. Good morning to you.
Morning CCH. Woke up to 22* winds light windchill 19* :)

I dont throw out the GFS models as they are pretty accurate but they do over emphasize certain things here in the Northeast.

I was looking up why and came across an interesting fact. This is from the NWS page disscusion of model suites...

The GFS model itself is a global spectral model truncated at total wave number T382 (equivalent to about 35-km horizontal grid spacing) with 64 vertical levels. This resolution is maintained through 180 hours of the forecast. Thereafter, the GFS is truncated to wave number T190 (equivalent to about 80-km grid spacing) with 64 vertical levels out to 384 hours.

Looking at how wide of a grid they use then looking at the Terrain in the Northeast one can infer (at least I did) that due to quickly varing terrain certain synoptic things can be missed.

Still researching though.
159. Bonedog 1:25 PM GMT on December 18, 2007
Morning CCH. Woke up to 22* winds light windchill 19* :)

I dont throw out the GFS models as they are pretty accurate but they do over emphasize certain things here in the Northeast.

I was looking up why and came across an interesting fact. This is from the NWS page disscusion of model suites...

The GFS model itself is a global spectral model truncated at total wave number T382 (equivalent to about 35-km horizontal grid spacing) with 64 vertical levels. This resolution is maintained through 180 hours of the forecast. Thereafter, the GFS is truncated to wave number T190 (equivalent to about 80-km grid spacing) with 64 vertical levels out to 384 hours.

Looking at how wide of a grid they use then looking at the Terrain in the Northeast one can infer (at least I did) that due to quickly varing terrain certain synoptic things can be missed.

Still researching though.


Very good point there Bonedog. You can clearly see the truncation occur when you run the GFS model. I did not factor in the varying terrain in the NE when considering these computer model runs. There is a vast difference between 35km grid spacing and 80km grid spacing, so that could explain some of the outliers produced by the GFS model. Thanks for the info. You come up with some fascinating info.
Hey 456, if you have time, could you give me a tutorial on how you derive those Cl numbers and how you recognize certain system types. I have been wanting to do analysis like that on my own for quite a while now. You could just send an email since I will be out from time to time today. It would be greatly appreciated.

i will send u an email with some info. But I caustion you: the Dvorak tecnique is headache. I have been doing since 2002 and I sill have difficulties, but once ur into it, that shud not be a problem.
wow looking up the diffrent models the NWS says the ECMWF is the most sophisticated they use!

Looks at the atmosphere in 4D and uses terrain following parameters in the boundry layers and puerly isobaric near the tropopause. and spaceing of 25km grided.
Very true Storm. Maybe the GFS foresees a change in the zonal flow. But, I do have to agree that with the current flow pattern based on water vapor imagery, the low should move into NC. I find VA to be a bit far north, but who knows.
Thanks 456. It can't give me a headache worse than learning Calculus and Statistics from a teacher who carries a unique mix of a Russian and Spanish accent arround.
Thanks for the heads up Storm. I havent looked at any imagery yet today. Was puerly going on models.
In my opinion, the metric system is much easier to handle than our English system since the metric system is based on powers of 10.
Yeah, it pretty much nails tropical systems...especially in the Pacific area. I would imagine since it's the European model, it may use metric values for intake and output.

I belive it does. Usually looking at the temp profiles usually in C*

It also appears to pick up the Nor'Easters well too. Right around the time they transfer the Low to the Coast the ECM is pretty accurate on where it forms and tracks.

Time to research more LOL. Guess today during the Lull of systems is a research day.
167. Bonedog 1:36 PM GMT on December 18, 2007
Thanks for the heads up Storm. I havent looked at any imagery yet today. Was puerly going on models.


When I do my forecasting, I tend to rely more on satellite imagery (mainly water vapor) than on computer models, although I do consider them a major factor into my forecasts. Just for fun, I showed some friends (who know very little about weather) the various computer models I study everyday and one actually started drooling since his mouth was wide open. I got a good kick out of that.
169. Bonedog 1:38 PM GMT on December 18, 2007
Yeah, it pretty much nails tropical systems...especially in the Pacific area. I would imagine since it's the European model, it may use metric values for intake and output.

I belive it does. Usually looking at the temp profiles usually in C*

It also appears to pick up the Nor'Easters well too. Right around the time they transfer the Low to the Coast the ECM is pretty accurate on where it forms and tracks.

Time to research more LOL. Guess today during the Lull of systems is a research day.


I never knew there was lull in the systems since the Northwest continues to get hammered this morning by the same system that will hit the Northeast later in the week going into the weekend.
Good morning JFV! How are your finals going thus far? I remember that you have your finals this week.
I do to CCH (look at imagery). Just haven't gotten around to it yet. Being Im at my job I have to take care of that first and usually model runs I can glance at and get an idea of whats going on. Imergy I have to look at a little closer. I get to that during lulls in my job (basically labor brakes).

When I say Lull in systems I mean between model runs. I will be following everything all day but with current information already out and anyalised gives me a few moments to do research.

Im a great multitasker but should clarify my statements better for folks.
Morning JFV
well JFV thanks for asking
This tropical cyclone has two outflow channels - one to the north and one to the south. The one two the south is more define. I define an outflow channel as a region in which outflow emanating from a tropical cyclone is focus. clockwise in the N hemisphere and anticlockwise in the S H.

oo another fun fact LOL

found out why the NGM model works well in the winter with systems....

Major parameters provided by NGM are ice covered water areas (yes/no), snow covered areas (yes/no), terrain height, mean sea level pressure, convective precipitation, total precipitation, exchange coefficient at surface, upward turbulent flux of sensible heat, upward turbulent flux of water, surface pressure, number of mixed layers next to surface, u component of wind, v component of wind, vertical velocity, specific humidity, and temperature
I think alot of models do not take into account snow / ice pack.

Some models seem to make the temps too warm. Like on this weekends system so models are showing the warm sector to reach 55 degrees. With current snow cover and recent cold air I doubt thats possible ( I may be wrong). Also I believe thats why a forcast can bust as far as type of precip. 55* would signify all rain but if the layer near the ground is still cold due to snow/ice cover a mixed precip event would be more probable

GM,all
morning NE
CCW thing with storm heading east out of texas is where does it reform over ocean. Storms approaching the coast always do and transfer their energy as they do.. I'm about to check storm's update to find out where.
Very cold this morning,brrrrrrrr.
Morning everyone. Quiet here in south Louisiana this morning. Lower to mid 40's...partly cloudy...and warming into the mid - upper 60's today. Back in the mid 70's tomorrow. :-(
187. Ivansrvivr 2:18 PM GMT on December 18, 2007
CCW thing with storm heading east out of texas is where does it reform over ocean. Storms approaching the coast always do and transfer their energy as they do.. I'm about to check storm's update to find out where.


I realize that Ivan, but you always want to track the low coming across the country since that could have a great impact on the weather in the Southeast, where we all need rain.

Morning all - a few minutes b/4 I'm off to work. Missed surfing the cold front waves on clean-up Monday - I was just in too much shock from the cold air temps. Gomex by me is 68 degrees. Due to the coming weak trough coming in thursday or Friday, I may get a chance this Friday ---just got to get over the whine and put the rubber suit on.

Bonedog some GREAT cold-front surf pictures from the jetties Venice can be found on gulfster.com and aurasurf.com
Good morning hondaguy. Already warming up that quick?
thanks surfmom. But if I look at them I will start to cry :( I miss those waves down there.

Now with water temps in the lower 40s and air temps in the 20s and lower 30s surfing is over for me till June or July.
The GFSx shows the next storm and another behind it..and another, and another..Link
I had to look :)

man I missed some great swell. Love that break.
yea Pat. talk about training.
My point is thats why we miss out on alot of it. If parent low isn't in GOM or close to it, or new low forming on tail of front, we miss almost everything else.
guess you gave me a reality check - I felt bad chickening out after I looked at the pictures, now hearing your conditions - I should just suck-it-up, just harder to stay warm the older I get ...and there were NO chicka's out - hopefully i'll adjust to the cooler temps, I know you'll are laughing - but once it gets below 60 I am miserable!!! Just can't keep warm.

Well, off to work, got to be sure the furry-four leggeds (horses) have kept their blankets on, and get them exercised. Can't believe last week I was complaining about 80 degree weather, and now I'm whining about the cold 53 degree --just like a woman - so hard to please. Pull out the hats, gloves, thermals --hate riding looking like a insulated snowman
Wednesday and Thursday's storm looks quite interesting for me on the Cape. Cape Cod is under the .5 to 1.0" of QPF combining the GFS and NAM which they both have trended further south with the bulk of the precip in their 6z for the GFS and 12z for the NAM. Looks interesting at best.
Patrap, that GFSx showed something try to form near yucatan then go poof. That would be a good one for Lake O if it popped and went NE.
LOL surfmom.

Yea I used to go out in these conditions but as you said its harder to get warmed up the older we get.

If I was done by you though 60* waters I would be in my spring suit maybe its all realitve though.


Have a good day and hope you catch some of the swells next time around.
B-dog figured the pics were worth the tug on the heart - must say it's got me motivated for this Friday. Just have to properly prepare and start eating so I got some carb stash for fuel. I don't think this trough heading here is going to make as nice waves. Monday was the FIRST decent coldfront wave maker this season. Hasn't been much here at all since Hurricane Dean.
Bone, youre right about snow cover. Especially in interior N.E.
Seems strange talking about surfing with my temp at 6 deg.
yea ivan doing a little more research and finding out interesting things..

surfmom. yea the tug was nice. warmed me right up :)

Still glad to see the bar held up and made some rideable barrels.
Ok Dudes - I am off East. Drought conditions are still prevailing out there - this last storm did NOTHING as far as being a rainmaker. Serious drought conditions in the making. Even so they are still hell bent on building 19,5000 homes Charlotte County, northport 18,000 homes, and roughly 18,000 homes for Lakewood Ranch florida(surrounding the polo club where I work) We are starting to experience some of the strictest water restrictions ever mandated, but there is enough water to build all these homes in the next two decades?? Along with a housing slump --Guess i am missing something.

Well that my political dissertation for the day. Have a good day - enjoy watching Celina & the other TC :)
morning... freezing cold here.

Surfmom...I'd be wearing shorts and t-shirt in 53 degree weather about now.

I'm learning a lot with your models discussion. so thanks!
have a good day surfmom
morning LakeShadow
I don't worry about the GFS right now until I start to see more models agreeing,but that said,I always watch the clipper systems closely to see if they get any upper support.
Morning,Lake
yea NE thats one hiccup right now with the clipper. very little upper air support. The 500 vort is lagging behind by a few hours.

If things came together a little better then I would give credence to an event. But right now appears, to me anyways, maybe a cloudy day with possible snow showers. dusting to an inch maybe.

Maine looks to take some sort of hit. 4 to 6 inches downeast and rapidly tapers off as you move inland. Coastal NH should see 2 to 4 depending on exact track.

The 1" qpf the GFS shows is way over estimated. Doesn't have that much moisture to it also doesnt have any support to lift that much from the Atlantic.
Hey cchsweatherman. According to one source it'll be 76°F (last check)tomorrow and according to wunderground it'll be 70°F. So yea it will be warming pretty quickly.

Cold weather this time of year is best. It's hard to be Christmasy without it!
I don't know but the GFS and NAM are seeing things we are not seeing and the HPC says a 10% chance for accumulations of 4" at least for Thursday. Not a lot of confidence, but something like that wasn't there yesterday. I posted the 12z NAM and the 6z GFS as the 12z didn't come out yet. I will post a link when it does. The models have shifted southward with the heaviest QPF.
Yep,Bone,thats the way I see it at this time.Don't want anymore right now.looks to be a rain event on sunday.
I would lean twords the NGM dean. The GFS has been over playing the systems in the northeast.

Look back a few posts and I found that the GFS appears to use to wide of a resolution grid 35km and 80km respectively. Plus doesnt take into account snowpack.

NGM take sinto account terrain, snow pack and ice pack also. The NGM also looks lower in the atmosphere in better resolution, albeit doesnt resolve as much of the atmosphere as the GFS.

To see which way trends will lean check the ECM. As I found (check previous post) it is the most advanced model in the NWS arsonal.
yea NE its going to be sloppy sunday and monday.

the latest MOS runs show start as snow then quickly snow/rain line moves in, then all rain after that before a quick change over back to snow. In quick I mean the little time for change overs to occur not how long they last.

Im waiting till the hi-res solutions come out on friday before locking in to exact trends. But right now the long range shows just a mess.
Ok, I'm really trying to understand these models, and since I'm more visual that mathematical, its all very pretty but what am I looking at?

Is the NAM the same as NGM? How can I look at beyond 36z?
Here's the e-wall of models...if someone could help me to navigate this page, that would be peachy!
Link
Sunday 00Z


Sunday 12Z


Monday 00Z


Monday 12Z


yea ivan doing a little more research and finding out interesting things..

I know a little bit about a little bit. A bit more every day.
The AVN shows the GFS and NAM solutions as well with the low developing to our south and quickly. The atmosphere is moist and the low pumps more into the coast. While Wednesday might be a little warm, the HPC said dynamic cooling will take place and turn the rain over to snow for Thursday where they highlighted a 10% of snow accumulations of at least 4". Bonedog is the AVN one of the high resolution models?
I recall a few in Va that were predicted like that(3 quick changeovers) snow-rain-snow in 6 hrs. We got all snow.
LOL,if it makes you feel any better Lake I get really confused with all the models,ensemble models,and groups of models,I try to stay focused on just a handful of the more common models you see mentioned. You do walk away with a migraine sometimes.
I'll help you Lake ask away :)

BTW NAM and NGM are two diffrent models

NGM- Nested Grid Model. A synoptic forecast model for short term forecasting.


NAM
- North American Mesoscale Model . usually known as the North American Model.

here is a good link for model runs thats a little easier on the eyes to figure out Lake.

Dept. Of Earth Sciences
Bonedog, I like what the models suggest however I'm highly doubting that snowfall will reach that far into the south/southeast.

I'd scale that line up by about 100 - 150 miles. Possibly on a line from and north of Oklahoma City, Little Rock, Memphis, and Nashville.

Good to be hopeful though!
Thanks storm.
So I cant find the NAM of this page, but I can look at the WRF? I cant find the ETA here, either. These seem to rely heavily on the GFS here on this e-wall page.
thanks bone, Its MUCH easier to look at!
ok. Its bookmarked, now I'm gonna spend some time looking at this.
dean the three hi-res models I know of are the RUC, WRF, and MM5. They are models that go out 24 to 36hrs and are zoomed into certain regions thus giving better solutions to you.

the MM5 goes as small as 4km.

here is an example of the MM5 for today


its run from the OKX forcast office in that image
honda the images I posted in post 219 doesnt show actual precipitation. It shows if there was precip what form it would be.
glad to help Lake. You know if you have questions feel free to ask.
Storm I didnt know that NWS is rarely using the NGM. LOL its one I do reley on to help me.
Tropical Cyclone 07S

1430 UTC 18 DEC 2007

Pattern: Curved band 0.60 arc

Current Intensity: CI 3.0

Adjustments: MET agrees with CI 2.5 but if organization continues the CI will be raised permantely to CI 3.0.

Final Intensity: CI 2.5/3.0

Dvorak Trends:



Lake and everyone else here is a great link to help you understand the diffrent things inside each of the models. Also has pros and cons and Q&A about why models do certain things.

Weather Forcast Models
213. hondaguy 3:13 PM GMT on December 18, 2007
Hey cchsweatherman. According to one source it'll be 76°F (last check)tomorrow and according to wunderground it'll be 70°F. So yea it will be warming pretty quickly.

Cold weather this time of year is best. It's hard to be Christmasy without it!


True that man.
Thanks guys... You're awesome!

Thats the best display of NAM products that I have come across yet,thanks, Storm!

I'll chime in with questions right now I'm checking it all out. Its like a giant puzzle...
nice link Bone,I'll have to find some time to read,might clear up some confusion I have with models.
NE besides the models that site has all things weather related. just go to the main page and have a blast. I think its the most comprehensive free site to learn eather forcasting. It even has tests for you to take!!

THE SITE PURPOSE


METEOROLOGIST JEFF HABY

The main focus of this web site is weather prediction education. While there are many websites for retrieving weather data, there remains somewhat of a lack of weather data interpretation and forecasting methods. This site will benefit the beginner as well as the advanced forecaster. Feel free to link to this site and use it for educational purposes. I hope each of you can learn a great deal about forecasting and meteorology through this site.

Please send me ideas for new content, notify me of broken links, and notify me of suggested improvements or corrections. If you have any questions or comments, e-mail them to:

webmaster@theweatherprediction.com
WOW, heatwave coming this weekend,I might hit 40
wow, thanks, bone! That is a great page.
Its like model forecasting 101.
loooove it!!!
Yea Lake. If you go to the main page start with
(1)Philosophy then move onto (2)Basic Topics and so one and so forth until you get to (5)WX Analysis you should be able to understand most weather forcasting.

I have been using that site for a year or two now, and its really where I began learning forcasting not just interpratation.

Also for everyone, top right of the main page has a very good bookmarks link, very detailed and very well organized.
LOL I found this under the field trips link...

4. Nor'easter

A. Preparation:

*Winter survival kit and extra gas

*Battery operated radio/TV

*Snow chains

B. Trip not complete until:

*Witnessed winds with sustained speeds over 50 miles per hour

*Witnessed at least one foot of snowfall and 10 foot snowdrifts

C. Advantages:

*Any snow fans dream

*Incredible snowfall rates, visibility near zero

D. Disadvantages:

*Travel becomes very difficult once storm begins

*Could be stranded for days

230. Bonedog 3:47 PM GMT on December 18, 2007
honda the images I posted in post 219 doesnt show actual precipitation. It shows if there was precip what form it would be.



Hey bone. I know they dont show actual precepitation. That's why I said I like what they "suggest" meaning future tense.

Again though I dont foresee a chance of snow that far south. Also, again, I really hope that it makes it that far!
ooo looky here. Man i love that site...

Other Precipitation Factors:

Alberta Clippers love La Nina years. La Nina means the Jet Stream dives south across the Great Lakes. That can often mean areas surrounding the lakes are the only ones in the U.S. to see a white Christmas. The Great Lakes southern and eastern shores often receive enhanced snowfall from Clippers during the winter months from lake enhancement. Lake effect snow substantially increases snowfall totals. Also, if conditions are favorable, an Alberta Clipper can rapidly intensify off the East Coast. Once the storm taps the relatively warm moist air over the Atlantic Ocean, the storm sometimes spreads heavy snow over New England and Southeastern Canada.
no problem Hondaguy. I misread the post :)

yeah, bone, I've looked at most the philosophy pages so far... This is great stuff, really!
thanks again!
anytime Lake. Glad to help. Feel free to ask questions thats how we all learn
Alberta loves la nina,sounds like a romance that means trouble for the northeast
yea NE. Guess that early season forcast Noaa made abotu a mild winter here went out the door about the same time 3.4 went -1.5 LOL
!!!!!NEW BLOG!!!!!