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Winter forecast, part III: the Old Farmer's Almanac

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:23 PM GMT on November 24, 2008

Since 1792, the Old Farmer's Almanac has been issuing long-range seasonal weather forecasts. This year, the Almanac is predicting that winter will be colder than average for 3/4 of the U.S., and above average over just 1/8 of the country. Only the Pacific Northwest and the upper Midwest near Minnesota are predicted to be warmer than average. For the Appalachian region that includes the three woolly bear forecasts I discussed last week, the Old Farmer's Almanac is siding with Oil Valley Vick and Kelly the woolly bear, forecasting colder than average temperatures. The Hagerstown Woolly Bears and NOAA disagree, predicting warmer than average temperatures are more likely.

How accurate is the Old Farmer's Almanac?
The Old Farmer's Almanac claims to have a secret formula developed in 1792 based on sunspots and climatology, which gives their long-range predictions 80% accuracy. I've heard a number of anecdotal stories about how uncannily accurate their forecasts are, and have always felt a vague sort of anxiety that maybe I should be checking them out when someone asks me what the upcoming winter will be like. However, the Almanac does not post any verification statistics of their forecasts. It is not hard to do a simple check of their forecast accuracy, though. Unfortunately, the results of my check and those done by several others show that there is little reason to believe that the Old Farmer's Almanac forecasts are any better than flipping a coin.


Figure 1. Observed departure of temperature from average for the period Nov. 2004-Mar. 2005. Superimposed in bold text is the winter forecast made in the 2004 Old Farmer's Almanac for the same period. The Almanac got four regions correct and eight incorrect, with two too close to call.

For example, for the winter of 2004-2005 (Figure 1), the November 2004 version of the Old Farmer's Almanac made a simple prediction of "cold" or "mild" for sixteen separate regions of the U.S. The original forecast map they presented only labels the U.S. in fourteen places, and I've overlaid these predictions on a temperature anomaly map showing what actually happened during the winter of 2004-2005. If we assume that "mild" refers to an above average temperature forecast and "cold" refers to a below average temperature forecast, then the Almanac got four regions correct, eight wrong, with two too close to call. Admittedly, I've "eyeballed" this, and it is a subjective verification. Still, I don't see any way that this forecast could approach even 50% (chance) accuracy. Their precipitation forecast fared better, with seven correct regions, five incorrect, and two too close to call. I also looked at the Farmer's Almanac forecasts for the winter of 2006-2007. They did much worse that winter, with only three of sixteen temperature forecasts verifying, and five out of twelve precipitation forecasts verifying (four were too close to call). For these two winters, the Old Farmer's Almanac made a successful forecast just 37% of the time.

Studies by Jan Null
Jan Null, a meteorologist who founded the private weather consulting firm, Golden Gate Weather in California, has evaluated the Old Farmer's Almanac predictions for San Francisco for three separate years. His first study looked at the forecasts for 1999-2000. His conclusion: "Even trying to be objective and giving the benefit of the doubt to cases that were close, I found last year's forecast from the Old Farmer's 2000 Almanac for San Francisco to be laughable at best and abysmal at worst. The Old Farmer's Almanac was wrong on their monthly temperature forecast 8 out of the 12 months (67%) and wrong on their rainfall forecast 5 of the 8 months evaluated (63%)". His grade for the Old Farmer's Almanac winter forecast for San Francisco during 2006-2007 was a D+. He also evaluated the Old Farmer's Almanac for two separate summers and winters for all sixteen regions of the U.S., and found mostly poor results. For the summer of 2005, just one of the sixteen Old Farmer's Almanac regional forecasts got both the temperature and the precipitation correct. He plans to post a verification of their 2008 summer forecast sometime in the next week.

Weatherwise magazine study
In the October 1981 issue of Weatherwise magazine, pages 212-215, John E. Walsh and David Allen performed a check on the accuracy of 60 monthly forecasts of temperature and precipitation from the Old Farmer's Almanac at 32 stations in the U.S. They found that 50.7% of the monthly temperature forecasts and 51.9% of the precipitation forecasts verified with the correct sign. This compares with the 50% success rate expected by chance.

Old Farmer's Almanac climate forecast
It's also of interest to note that the Old Farmer's Almanac believes that sunspot cycles and other factors suggest that "a cold, not warm climate may be in our future". Their climate forecaster is Joeseph D'Aleo, who was the first Director of Meteorology at the Weather Channel. Mr. D'Aleo is now retired, and is often quoted for his skeptical opinions about climate change.

Conclusion
The results of my forecast verifications and those done by several others indicate that there is little reason to believe the Old Farmer's Almanac claim of 80% accuracy. These verifications attempted to be fair, but one can justifiably argue they were not objective nor complete. However, unless the Almanac posts some scientific evidence to the contrary, I won't believe their forecasts are any better than flipping a coin. One's best bet for the upcoming winter forecast is to use NOAA's prediction, which calls for an an above-average chance of a warm winter across the center portion of the U.S. If you live in Banner Elk, North Carolina, it might be wise to go with Kelly the Woolly worm's forecast of a cold winter, though, given the success of her predecessors!

Tropical disturbance near Costa Rica
An area of disturbed weather (96L) has developed in the extreme southern Caribbean, near the coast of Costa Rica. Wind shear is a hefty 20-30 knots over the disturbance, which will keep any development slow. The disturbance will bring heavy rains to Costa Rica and Nicaragua through Wednesday. If the center can stay off shore, this disturbance has the potential to develop into a tropical depression. NHC is giving a moderate (20-50% chance) that 96L will develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. The GFDL model does develop 96L, but none of the other models do. I'll have an update on the system this afternoon if it gets more organized.

Jeff Masters

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

GOES IR Loop of Gulf of Mexico Link

GOES WV Loop of Tropical Basin Link


GOES-12 Atmospheric Imagery Link

These images are primarily for use in tropical storm monitoring. There are several areas to choose from providing a large-scale view of the Atlantic, down to the Gulf of Mexico. During hurricane season, the hurricanes page provides a variety of GOES atmospheric products to help monitor the active storms.
Surprised the Doc mentioned nothing about our invest.
UNYSIS 10-Day GFSx Link
Works every time. Post then like 12 seconds later... New blog. "Even trying to be objective and giving the benefit of the doubt to cases that were close". LOL

Leftovers:
935. HIEXPRESS 9:20 AM EST on November 24, 2008
The CLP5 (climo) model can't be wrong every time, or else it wouldn't be climo would it? hmmm?
I updated my blog if anyone would like to review and yes i put some Rock on....lol

TampaSpins Weather Blog Link
new closed surface low forming around 80W,10.5 north as apparent on vis. sat. loop!!!!,should drift NNW
Good morning Tampa, thanks for your blog it is very informative. Quick question though, where do you think the snow/freezing rain line may be in the south? I can't quite tell from the models. Thxs in advance. I am in Charlotte, NC
has surfmom been on this morning? I look forward to her daily updates.
check it out!!!,could we have a hurricane in the SW carib. come turkey day???? I would say there is more of a chance of 96L making it to cane status than not...IMO
surfmom was in earlier,asking about 96l's overnight progress...
96 should be inland by Thursday...not likely to reach TS status before then. Looking more ragged than it did yesterday.
Gulf and Tropics (Updated every ~1/2 hour) Link
Dear Dr. Masters,

I was interested to see a study, any study, that actually tested the accuracy of the Farmer's Almanac predictions.

If you actually did one, let's see it!

The map you present in your blog above appears to be an "apples-and-oranges" comparison from a single winter season apparently picked at random (?).

The 1981 magazine article, done over 25 years ago and presented anecdotally, certainly can not be considered definitive.

I will be very interested to see Jan Null's work when it is published in a peer-reviewed weather or climate journal.

I would love to see a proper vigorous study comparing the Farmer's Almanac long-term forecasts compared to those from other institutions or maybe those famous computer models we're always hearing about.

Kip Hansen

96L starting to band,w/decent inflow from the SE and SW...
on satellite..visable and ir...96 looks like it is being ripped apart...would not be surprised if downgraded to yellow later today.
Quoting katbelle77:
Good morning Tampa, thanks for your blog it is very informative. Quick question though, where do you think the snow/freezing rain line may be in the south? I can't quite tell from the models. Thxs in advance. I am in Charlotte, NC


Thats very hard to say this far out. It might just be a big rain event...
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
on satellite..visable and ir...96 looks like it is being ripped apart...would not be surprised if downgraded to yellow later today.




You mean Green LOL
Tampa...do the models forcast another big cold front to pass thru Fla. within the forseeable future?
lol...you love that green graphic!!
Quoting Cotillion:
Surprised the Doc mentioned nothing about our invest.


Sorry, I was focused on getting my winter prediction out, and didn't do my usual check of the tropics first thing. I've added a little blurb on 96L, and will post more later today if it gets more organized.

Jeff Masters
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
lol...you love that green graphic!!


I do! you never know when they'll do it again

^_^
looking at the SW loop it appears that 96L is headed toward TD status this evening as convection near the center is growing and wind sheer is forcast to weaken and looks to be already judging by the WV loop...IMO.... and will look much more impressive as the day passes....
Thanks Doc ^_^
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Tampa...do the models forcast another big cold front to pass thru Fla. within the forseeable future?


No they don't anytime soon....possibly Tuesday of next week at the earliest...
As I posted last night...we ought to do a top 10 list of the most memorable or outrageous posts from this past season.
our 10-day forcast agrees with you Tampa..has lows in my neck of the woods (West Palm) in the 40's.
Quoting stillwaiting:
looking at the SW loop it appears that 96L is headed toward TD status this evening as convection near the center is growing and wind sheer is forcast to weaken and looks to be already judging by the WV loop...IMO.... and will look much more impressive as the day passes....


Not sure where you see the forecast for shear to weaken but the 4 day forecast shows it to increase......Shear 4 day loop Link
Quoting KipHansen:
Dear Dr. Masters,

I was interested to see a study, any study, that actually tested the accuracy of the Farmer's Almanac predictions.

If you actually did one, let's see it!

The map you present in your blog above appears to be an "apples-and-oranges" comparison from a single winter season apparently picked at random (?).

Kip Hansen



Hi, the burden should be on the Old Farmer's Almanac to prove their forecasts are 80% accurate--if they are making that claim. I merely reviewed all the studies I could find that attempted to verify their forecasts, and provide one example (of the two winter forecasts I could find) to illustrate a case where their claim of 80% accuracy did not verify. As I admit in my text, the verifications I was able to find are neither objective nor comprehensive.


Jeff Masters
Quoting Doc M:
The GFDL model does develop 96L, but none of the other models do.




hmmmmm interesting

brb folks
Quoting JeffMasters:


Sorry, I was focused on getting my winter prediction out, and didn't do my usual check of the tropics first thing. I've added a little blurb on 96L, and will post more later today if it gets more organized.

Jeff Masters


Thanks very much. :)
33. JRRP

looks like is closing circulation
TAMPA SPIN-I was just on your blog [loaded with great info] and checked out stairway to heaven,but could not find where to leave a comment.Can you help me find it?
Blast from the past...this day in 2005...

Tropical Storm Delta
Delta is still hanging tough in the face of 30-40 knots of wind shear, but its days are numbered. High shear, dry air, and cooler waters will all conspire to weaken Delta over the next two days, then destroy it by Monday. The deep convection around the eye is already starting to decay, and this storm has missed its chance to become a hurricane. The remnants of Delta have the potential to bring 40 mph winds and heavy rain to the Canary Islands and Morocco early next week.
TS: I looked at the sheer tendency forcast map on the CIMSS website the area I'm speaking of is the new surface low at/or around 80w,10.5 and on the CIMSS map it should drop from 20-30kts currently,to about 10kts....I'm glad we can discuss the tropics rather than our usual bickering,which I give you my word will not ever happen again,brother......we have alot more in common than,not.after all we are both still on here!!!!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
our 10-day forcast agrees with you Tampa..has lows in my neck of the woods (West Palm) in the 40's.


I was pondering that same thing but reconsidered...kind of a "season wrapup" but don't really want to touch that one with a ten-foot pole...

:)
jrrp: there's the new surface low!!!
Sorry - took the wrong quote Geoffrey...meant to click on 27.
I think we should see a +500 DOW again today!!!
41. JRRP
38: stillwaiting
looks like that
Quoting melwerle:
Sorry - took the wrong quote Geoffrey...meant to click on 27.


we had some fun with it last night...it was all in good humor.
I'm sorry I missed that one...I'm going to have to find last night's blog and look it over...should have been pretty fun!

Wish i was there to hang out...
Quoting stillwaiting:
TS: I looked at the sheer tendency forcast map on the CIMSS website the area I'm speaking of is the new surface low at/or around 80w,10.5 and on the CIMSS map it should drop from 20-30kts currently,to about 10kts....I'm glad we can discuss the tropics rather than our usual bickering,which I give you my word will not ever happen again,brother......we have alot more in common than,not.after all we are both still on here!!!!


LOL......so very true...it looks like the shear does decrease just in its general area.....but, just to the north which was what i was referring to shear does appear to expand south some.......JMO......i just don't see it a problem except for South America which will have some very life threatening flooding.....
1. Winterstormsblog 6:25 AM PST on November 24, 2008
first!

i think Winterstormsblog for got too look at Rule # 7

Do not "1st!", "1st post!", or any of the numerical/linguistic derivatives. This is a worthless use of blog space


you can do the 1st post in other blogs but not this blog
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
As I posted last night...we ought to do a top 10 list of the most memorable or outrageous posts from this past season.


Might be handy to get that crow grill fired up for ol' times...

And here's a question for you, folks:

If you could pick one hurricane season from 1851-1994 to live through (Assuming you'd be on the coast, even if you're not now.) *and* study (Don't have to be the same year), which would it be and why?

Deliberately left out our current AMO seasons, as they're still fresh in most people's minds.

TS:yea the area of lighter sheer is forcast to be not a very large area,central america could have to deal w/alot of flooding as well....
Random bit of pub quiz trivia:

Florida has the reputation of being the state most at risk from hurricanes. But did you know, when the contemporary naming list (Albeit without male names, which came in 1979*.) came in, it took 7 years for Florida to be hit by a 'named' major hurricane. (MH at landfall.)

Which was it? Hurricane Donna of 1960, hitting not far from Naples as a Cat 4.

And when they changed the names again in the aforementioned year, it took a further.. guess? Yes, it's the infamous one. Hurricane Andrew, 13 years later. Some were close before then, such as David which hit as a Cat 2 in 79, Kate which hit also as a Cat 2 in 85. That same year, Elena stalled just miles off the Floridian coast, but did not make actual landfall there.

So, should the names alter again for whatever reason, history says luck favours Floridians! (At least for a few years.)

* - Same year, and 2 out of the first 3 male names get retired. Someone just had to tempt fate, didn't they?
GFS shear forecast does start to weaken the shear, albeit not to a fully "conducive" level, starting after about four days. Also, not too bad for the next 24hrs or so, but yes pretty high on days 3-4, then lessening.

Link
96L is very close to TD status right now....imo
ahhhhhh not another crow

y now 96L? just go poof already

PS SFWMD is so slow... they don't have a map yet
First will be last!

Last will be first!

Bible said.
Hearing wild reports from Bilouxi Kingfish Tournament affected by weather.
Two soft tops, one hard top ripped off. One boat nearly ripped in half and had to be rescued by chopper.
Anyone with any first hand knowledge ???

MissNadia...any news???
Just an interesting article on weather sats:

Link
Another reason why the GFDL run should be hoped against...

It brings a Cat 3 very close to where Felix hit last year along the Mosquito Coast... Nicaragua isn't the wealthiest country in the world and could really do without yet another 'cane in that area, even if just a minimal one.
Quoting theshepherd:
Hearing wild reports from Bilouxi Kingfish Tournament affected by weather.
Two soft tops, one hard top ripped off. One boat nearly ripped in half and had to be rescued by chopper.
Anyone with any first hand knowledge ???

MissNadia...any news???

Shep I haven't talked to anyone involved, but am hearing the same stuff...your nephew was the smart one!!!
Also, it's predicting something similar to this:

Link
Thought some of you rockers from the 70's might like this clip......

Good morning all :)

Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site

Still searching for the last minute vacation spot. Looks like the Mayan Riviera so far.. mind you.. I am only along for the ride.. I appear to have no say on the location :)
doc may have an update later this afternoon if 96L gets more organized,which its been doing quite well so far this morning!!!!
Quoting Cotillion:
Also, it's predicting something similar to this:

Link


you're kidding right?

please not another major

heck rain is enough to cause damage
good choice tampa...i like this song also....kinda mellow, but a great hook...

Quoting MissNadia:

Shep I haven't talked to anyone involved, but am hearing the same stuff...your nephew was the smart one!!!
Yeah, that ol' "Flarda" boy was happy to hang at the hotel with a hot toddy and swap stories. How did your buds make out?
gm all,we have a high wind watch for tomorrow,possible damaging winds,going to be a nasty day.
Good morning, all!

My last name was HANCOCK! lol


John Hancock was famous.
59 Tampa
That sure was a wake up...
I built one of those SG double neckers once with six gold humbuckers and then let a friend steal it from me. Once was enough...
Quoting theshepherd:
Yeah, that ol' "Flarda" boy was happy to hang at the hotel with a hot toddy and swap stories. How did your buds make out?


The only close friend that scored was Randall Eadens. He won the 23 and under class with a couple of mid 40s ,both caught on Saturday. I haven't had a chance to get together with him.
96L looks to have a well defined circulation, wouldn't be surprised if this is upgraded tonight or in the morning if this trend continues.
Quoting MissNadia:


The only close friend that scored was Randall Eadens. He won the 23 and under class with a couple of mid 40s ,both caught on Saturday. I haven't had a chance to get together with him.
Good for him. He definetly earned it for sure...
When I lived in Northeastern NJ many years ago I did my own review of the Almanc's forecasts and came up with a less than 30% hit that one year. Darts worked just as well.
WOW! This is best IMO that 96L has looked and its been placed back in yellow, The NHC must have read my comment#70 :)
just as I thought...down to yellow..


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST MON NOV 24 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE
ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME AND FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF
PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.



Quoting stormpetrol:
WOW! This is best IMO that 96L has looked and its been placed back in yellow, The NHC must have read my comment#70 :)


Don't put too much emphasis on a satellite imagery. There are more factors than that that come into play to determine tropical cyclogenesis.
96L abysmal
Hi JP,
Any thoughts on 96L?
Hey folks! I have family making a long car-trek from Des Moines to Charleston, SC today and tomorrow. From Tampaspin's radar map above it looks like today's journey will be clear. Any predictions on what that front along the Smokies will be doing tomorrow? TIA.
re 73
Actually the satellite image looked a lot healthier 3 hours ago. It has now become very ragged again.
You're going to run into some trouble traveling over the Appalachians tomorrow. A cold front blasting through the region tonight is going to bring a moist upslope flow to the region resulting in several inches of heavy wet snow. Be prepared for that along with some gusty winds.
Space walk now in progress...Live NASA-TV.


The ISS is going to flying directly over my house tonight (88°) but the clouds are going to prevent me from seeing it.
83. IKE
154 hours
58 minutes....

and the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season is history.
Quoting IKE:
154 hours
59 minutes....

and the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season is history.


Could be wrong...

85. IKE
Obama paying off already...

From CNN....

Stocks surge on Citi, Obama
The government rescue of the ailing bank and the President-elect's pick for his economic team propel stocks.
sulli,are you expecting any snow out of this system tomorrow
Quoting NEwxguy:
sulli,are you expecting any snow out of this system tomorrow


At least 5". I don't know why BGM hasn't issued any headlines for my area yet. I know they hinted at waiting on the 12Z guidance before raising flags but now that it has come in (colder and snowier than the 00Z model suite) I'm expecting something to be issued any minute.

12Z ECMWF just rolling in and shows a really big storm early next week coming up the Eastern Seaboard followed by an arctic blast and a potent clipper.

Looking VERY snowy here in the NE...
were expecting the warm side here in eastern mass.temps may shoot into the 50/s tomorrow afternoon with 30-40mph winds and possible thunder,you get the cold side
85. IKE

While Citi certainly had an impact and the simple fact of knowing who the team is lessens uncertainly (market hates uncertainty), IMO, it is actually that there are hints that Obama will NOT do what he said he was going to do during the campaign that is helping the most. Indications that he will delay any tax increases for two years.

i.e., it's the fact that he will NOT do what he said he would do that is helping the most.

Have to give him credit for that, though. Just wish it wasn't "hints" and he came out and made a promise.

Just wish he would come out and state that he will not be raising capital gains as he promised. Otherwise, we ain't seen nothing yet as we approach the end of the year and people want to be taxed at the current rate vs. the higher rate.

JMO.
I have a long write up in my blog today about the storm. I feel as though I covered everything but I could've added in a few more details. Oh well. For the most part the forecast looks good and shouldn't need any changes.

I had my area right under the 3-6/6-12" line in the snowmap and then the 12Z guidance came in and backed my forecast up. I was worried looking at the 00/06Z model suite from last night thinking this one might go warm here but instead if flipped back to the cold side of things. Saves me a lot of time having to write up a new blog to cover a changed forecast, tha's for sure.
I have little understanding to why the NHC downgraded 96L to yellow. It's getting a well-defined surface circulation, it has 30 mph winds, and great convection. I thought it would've been on red at 1pm.
Where is everyone?
been lurking...
ok...woolybears, farmers almanac, other sources...why not just go on the acorn theory?
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:
Where is everyone?


Waiting for the NWS to issue winter weather headlines here in the NE! How long must they wait?!
looks like NE may get an extra long Thanksgiving break....
92. hurricanemaniac123

I think it is two reasons.

1. Shear
2. Keep repositioning it farther W and if that is, in fact, the center, then it will be over Nicaragua or CR before it has time to develop into anything.
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
24/1745 UTC 11.4N 82.3W T1.5/1.5 96L
24/1145 UTC 11.4N 81.9W T1.5/1.5 96L
Good afternoon everyone.
Good afternoon Tampa.

Thanks for the tunes.
hey tampa
ok...gotta bounce...peewee still sleeping from nap...if I don't get him up...he won't sleep tonight...bbl if I can....
104. IKE
Quoting Seastep:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
24/1745 UTC 11.4N 82.3W T1.5/1.5 96L
24/1145 UTC 11.4N 81.9W T1.5/1.5 96L


I'm surprised it's at 1.5 for a T #....looks stretched out..and less defined. Suppose it's getting sheared.
Severe weather breaking out in Mississippi...

Quoting Seastep:
Good afternoon Tampa.

Thanks for the tunes.


Your welcome.....music sooths the beast in us all.....LOL
Just updated......

IKE - yeah, and unchanged from when it was orange. I think the change to yellow (before current presentation) because of shear and that if it keeps moving W at that speed/repositioning, it will be over land before it can get going.
And, IKE, now we're hummin'. :)

DJIA
8,563.97
+517.55
+6.43%
Quoting IKE:


I'm surprised it's at 1.5 for a T #....looks stretched out..and less defined. Suppose it's getting sheared.


Its indeed being sheared at the present time...I see nothing at the surface with this feature.Slim chances at any signficant development.
Quoting IKE:


I'm surprised it's at 1.5 for a T #....looks stretched out..and less defined. Suppose it's getting sheared.


And that's putting it gently. ;)



Decreasing but shear is still eating it especially on its north side.
i updated my blog this morning if anyone would like to review......

TampaSpins Weather Blog Link
Moved significantly NW (to new SSD position) and increased to 1008mb at 18Z:

Link

Had to open my big mouth... some last minute profit taking... but looks to be rebounding in the last few minutes here...

Still, very nice, right now about +12% over past two sessions.
Budget changes here... VAT actually gone down to 15% although other rises are included... quite the gamble. Borrowing to increase. Basically, may sort us out now but in ten or so years time I would not want to be here. There will be an almighty tax bombshell. States, here I come...

In European Markets...

FTSE up by 9.84%
Dax and Cac 40 both up by over 10%

Not too bad, not too bad at all.
Just ran across a ship reading from 11.2N/76W of 1004mb.
RSMC: India Meteorological Department

Tropical Cyclone Outlook - 0900z 24NOV
=========================================
This morning's low pressure area over Sri Lanks and neighborhood now lies as a well marked low pressure area over the same region. The interpretation of numerial weather prediction models indicate that the system is likely to concentrate into a depression over southwest Bay of Bengal and further intensify into a tropical cyclone during subsequent 48 hours.
Magnitude 7.3
Date-Time Monday, November 24, 2008 at 09:02:58 UTC
Monday, November 24, 2008 at 08:02:58 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 54.198°N, 154.316°E
Depth 491.7 km (305.5 miles)
Region SEA OF OKHOTSK
Distances


96L floater
I understand that Granny on The Beverly Hillbillies had a "Weather Beetle" that was accurate 100% of the time. Maybe we should consult her beetle if he's still around.
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI,..Squall Line associated withthe Frontal Boundary Link
Hi - don't know if this link has been posted (probably has) - Cayman Brac Paloma video - take care ...

Link
Quoting Seastep:
92. hurricanemaniac123

I think it is two reasons.

1. Shear
2. Keep repositioning it farther W and if that is, in fact, the center, then it will be over Nicaragua or CR before it has time to develop into anything.


Looks to be 2 mid level centers. One moving wsw into land the other closer to SA.
125. eddye
HOW COLD WILL IT GET IN PALM BEACH
Stop talking about Florida, eddye! jk
Quoting Patrap:
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI,..Squall Line associated withthe Frontal Boundary Link


Are those boxes lightning strikes? Have never turned that on.
I think this invest just started a new weakening trend and I doubt this season has anything else to offer
Actually looks to be starting to get back together to me. Just can't decide where it wants to be.
Shear's weakening, looking a bit better organized, so it could still likely become a td.
Quoting Seastep:
Actually looks to be starting to get back together to me. Just can't decide where it wants to be.


I'm putting 10 bucks on Rotterdam.

lol - thanks for that cotillion.
Quoting Cotillion:


I'm putting 10 bucks on Rotterdam.



Nice guess, how are you tonight my friend? Staying warm I hope!
i just ignored!!!!

Yes, i remembered tropical storm Gordon in 1994!!!! hahahahahahahahahahahahahah!!! Honest to God. your very stupid EVER !!!!
Quoting RobDaHood:


Nice guess, how are you tonight my friend? Staying warm I hope!


I could be a million times better.

But, I am at least warm. Yourself?
surfmom's pup is on my blog as well as an nice vid courtesy of beell
Good Evening Mr. De Hood...work all done for the day?
nice flare near 30 55 strong non tropical system open atlantic moving se ward
96l stalled will pull n beginning at end of week in response to a dev boundry and low pressure over se gulf states fri into weekend after current system over lakes pulls away to ne
we still may have a hat trick
5 days to go

135. Cotillion

Almost hate to say it, but beautiful day here, highs in the mid seventies, should be that way most of the week...Taking this week off from work since Angie has the week off. Honey-do lists, of course, but weather so nice, who cares?
Quoting Seastep:
Actually looks to be starting to get back together to me. Just can't decide where it wants to be.
needs to cook not ready yet
Tropical storm Gordon hit Southwest Florida in 1994, where i lived !!!! WOW!!!!!!!!!
137. MissNadia
Nope, work on hold see post # 139...you know you really should post a pic to my blog, or would that ruin the mystery? How are things your way...spent the weekend boating with friends, almost embarrassed to say how nice it has been.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
needs to cook not ready yet


excellent way to put it!
Quoting RobDaHood:
137. MissNadia
Nope, work on hold see post # 139...you know you really should post a pic to my blog, or would that ruin the mystery? How are things your way...spent the weekend boating with friends, almost embarrassed to say how nice it has been.

What is a jet boat?
T.S./Hurri. Gordon in 1994???

Next year- 2009 Atlantic hurricane season:

We'll see 4 hurricanes or MORE before September 30 !!!! I believe !!!!
lets wait for o nine to get here first
I did !!!!!, when i predicted 4 hurricanes or more before September 30, 2008!!! This year!!!

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!
Quoting MissNadia:

What is a jet boat?


I really think your kidding me, but Big Block Chevy or Ford, driving an impellor like on a jet ski...70 to 100 mph, big rooster tails, typical macho guy stuff, but so much fun. My girlfriend loves it BTW...anything loud and fast suits her. All the guys get jealous.
Quoting RobDaHood:


I really think your kidding me, but Big Block Chevy or Ford, driving an impellor like on a jet ski...70 to 100 mph, big rooster tails, typical macho guy stuff, but so much fun.

I have never seen one, but then again, I like the girl stuff!!!
96L looks like it is just a bunch of flare ups
it could be one of those invests that take three days to form but it will run into land by then


cyclone watch for Tamil-Nadu?
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


cyclone watch for Tamil-Nadu?


It's seriously called Tamil-Nadu?

That's just ironic.

(It's right by the NE of Sri Lanka, where the Tamil Tiger separatist group often reside in.)
Quoting MissNadia:

I have never seen one, but then again, I like the girl stuff!!!


hehe...edited my post, read again...girls are welcome to play with us...they just gotta be a tad fearless!
Very unsual siting in Tampa today......look at this cloud formation......



heres the link....Link
no, lol it's not named yet.
154 tampa
ET phoned home
Quoting theshepherd:
154 tampa
ET phoned home


lol,,,,,,maybe so..LOL
154. TampaSpin

Way cool pic!
149. MissNadia

Didn't think to take pics this weekend, but might do it again next week. (gotta take advantage of low gas prices while they last) Will get some pictures to post for you. BTW, one guy had a 16 ft checkmate with a new Merc 150 on it. Runs 65 before gettin a little to squirrely and averages 9 mpg. We were all crying at the gas pumps on day 2 when he still had half a tank.
Miss Nadia
That's quite a boat ya'll build in Wilmington.
A Florida based 23' Onslow won the Biloxi tourney.
Steep 10 foot seas Friday reeked havoc on the Contenders and Everglades T-tops. That was a Wellcraft hull that broke in half.
8 foot seas Saturday. Boats were grounded and washed ashore islands all over the place. Coast Guard choppered in the crew of the Wellcraft, but everybody else not in immediate danger found the true meaning of "small craft advisory" and had to sit for hours.
The smart ones went to the casinos lol
160. theshepherd
but everybody else not in immediate danger found the true meaning of "small craft advisory"

hahahaha...aint no fish worth that!
Quoting RobDaHood:
149. MissNadia

Didn't think to take pics this weekend, but might do it again next week. (gotta take advantage of low gas prices while they last) Will get some pictures to post for you. BTW, one guy had a 16 ft checkmate with a new Merc 150 on it. Runs 65 before gettin a little to squirrely and averages 9 mpg. We were all crying at the gas pumps on day 2 when he still had half a tank.

I have a tunnel hull cat that will do an honest 65 ready to fish.... full bait well.. full fuel.. ect IN THE OCEAN if itsn't too rough
163. MissNadia

Nice, really wanting one of these but still out of my league...maybe after the economy turns around...playing it conservative right now.
# 160
Shep, the Onslow Bay is a new boat this year..build a 23 and a 26..They gave that boat to Randell for the year.. looks like a good move !!!!
Quoting TampaSpin:
Very unsual siting in Tampa today......look at this cloud formation......



heres the link....Link

I believe that's a hole-in-a-cloud, the surrounding cloud is cirrocumulus and cirrus clouds are within the hole. Very interesting formation, I think I've seen something similar to that before, but not as nearly as stunning.
#163 Rob
A fellow in town has a Mares Cat with two 300 mercs. I think they go about $250,00. It is a wonderful ocean fishing machine!!!!
Hurricane4Lex,

Rene ???

Not a crow! That's (NHC) National Hurricane Center or weather channel both!!!!

hahahahaha!!
Yeah, pretty heafty price, and then I have to store it on the coast...can't really justify it...but one can dream...
Quoting AstroHurricane001:

I believe that's a hole-in-a-cloud, the surrounding cloud is cirrocumulus and cirrus clouds are within the hole. Very interesting formation, I think I've seen something similar to that before, but not as nearly as stunning.
i beleive a disturbance causes them normally overhesd jets cause the ice crystals to evaporate if you look at the pitures there is another behind
161 Rob
My nephew kept repeating to himself,"Live to fish another day".
He talked with the capt of a 26 ftr that thought he'd run out to check things out. After thirty minutes he gave up and the waves were so steep and close together it took him another hour to find a slot he could turn around in. When he got back to the dock both of his crew were on the floor laying in their own puke and his forehead was gashed when a wave blew his widshield out.
Quoting RobDaHood:
Yeah, pretty heafty price, and then I have to store it on the coast...can't really justify it...but one can dream...

It is way too much boat for the lake!!!
171. theshepherd

Wow, the advantage of getting a bit older is having been scared enough times not to be afraid to say "not today"
Thanks to National Hurricane Center and Weather Channel both !!!!!!!!!
Toad frogs were hopping today and the gypsy moths are buzzing around my windows tonight.
Gotta love that N Fla fickle weather.
172. MissNadia

hehehe...yeah, a bit much so I will resist as best as I can...real dream is to buy a big sailing cat and retire to a beautiful island one day. keeping the eye on the prize.
175. theshepherd

yeah, and wolf spiders contraflowin' into RTLSNK's garage...somethings up!
# 176
Rob, I did a lot of sailing, but now, for me, it's like watching grass grow.
177 rob
Fearless little critters...maybe they hear my crickets and chorus frogs singing ???
178. MissNadia

Now, yeah, but later...a lot to be said for the communion w/nature plus there is the fuel economy thing...a high performance cat rig is still a lot of fun and cheap to operate.
179. theshepherd

could be...gotta run for a while...steak, salmon, and potatoes await on the grill...yum...back later.
180
Some day when you are becalmed 30 miles off shore you and nature will soon be one.
howdy folks....

nasty, nasty mess!

Rob, i've never had as much sailing as i did when it was a catamaran! touche!
185. fo
SC!
leading showers were dissipating within dry airmass over the
region early Monday evening. Solid band of showers...associated
with upstream cold front/associated shortwave and jet maximum...was
advancing across northern Georgia and the upstate of SC and should
reach inland counties of the forecast area between 10 PM and
midnight...then should advance to the coast between midnight and 2
am. The primary upper vorticity driving the cold front will become
more diffuse overnight with the best forcing pushing through
central and northern SC. Weak upper- level jet divergence will
coincide with the frontal passage although slightly larger values
indicated by both the NAM and GFS over southern SC as opposed to
southeast Georgia. It still looks like a rather quick burst of showers
will push through overnight with the best coverage over southern
SC. Coastal Georgia is one region where little in the way of rainfall
is expected since the front could be drying up by the time it
reaches there. Have included a few hours of likely probability of precipitation in
southeast SC straddling midnight with solid chance most other
areas.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Very unsual siting in Tampa today......look at this cloud formation......



heres the link....Link


Hmm was this over TampMishy house by chance? Could it be the top of the infamous Troll Dome?
182. MissNadia

uhm...big diesel auxillary?

184. pearlandaggie

A Hobie Tiger is about the most fun you can have on the water without paying BIG fuel bills!

Okay, I go eat now.
Now these Met. are forecasting from the same area in Richmond, VA. Tell me why can't people forecast the weather these days?



Quoting TampaSpin:
Very unsual siting in Tampa today......look at this cloud formation......



heres the link....Link


I know I'm late to announce but wow how that happen that's a great pic

maybe its the invisible alien aircraft that keeps hurricanes away from tampa

just right weather conditions brought it to visibility
187. never sailed a Hobie Tiger, but I did sail a Hobie Cat...would consider buying one if I could find one close and reasonably priced!
188. BUT, they CAN predict AGW! LOL
LOL it was suppose to rain today here in Houston and ummmmmmmmmmmm......

It DiDn'T!!!!! LOL!!!!!!!!
Appreciated the musical energy earlier, Tampa.I came back from'nam and spent 1975-1985 in a very horrible place. It's so nice now to revisit those years through the music....I can lament about how much I missed, or throughly enjoy it because it never truly dies. I was so excited when Led Zep got together for the gig in London, still hoping they might tour over here. As much as I enjoy the new metal, it just doesn't hold a candle to these primo trend setters
192. it did here in Pearland! LOL...and where I work...in Freeport. maybe you chased it away! :)
Quoting pearlandaggie:
192. it did here in Pearland! LOL...and where I work...in Freeport. maybe you chased it away! :)


LOL I think I did! it was dry and very unusually sunny today (in Shadow Creek Ranch) when I was putting up the rest of the xmas lights

interesting how 2 sides of the same place could be so different!!! LOL

also Houston was just as dry but I know know about the rest of the day there (since I left at noon)
Lost my wallet in Giant Foods today, couldn't have been more then 2 minutes b4 I realized it was gone....just when I'm getting back into that existential lovin the world, cumbuya, it's why I'm going into social work frame of mind, reality snatches it away....I'm putting myself through Social Work school on meager tips parking cars and had the weekends booty ready for a deposit....collective sigh of "who really cares" and lets get back to the weather.
197. fo
It's going to rain here in SC pretty soon...
Quoting fo:
It's going to rain here in SC pretty soon...


Soon?? or is!

Quoting papasturgeon:
Appreciated the musical energy earlier, Tampa.I came back from'nam and spent 1975-1985 in a very horrible place. It's so nice now to revisit those years through the music....I can lament about how much I missed, or throughly enjoy it because it never truly dies. I was so excited when Led Zep got together for the gig in London, still hoping they might tour over here. As much as I enjoy the new metal, it just doesn't hold a candle to these primo trend setters
Thank you for your service, Sir.
I still carry my 1968 draft card in my pocket.
No expiration date on it.
God speed...
Quoting theshepherd:
Thank you for your service, Sir.
I still carry my 1968 draft card in my pocket.
No expiration date on it.
God speed...


-
Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site
Forest Gump hit close to home. I had polio -like symptoms growing up, Mom died from Leukemia when I was 9 months old..my earliest memories were of braces and pain, and getting laughed at by my buddies, they actually did tie me up to a flag pole in Niagara Falls New York! Course, I never got to shmooze with Presidents and my first fire fight cost me my partner, I was a medic. No heroics,it was the tail end and it was a mess. But I'd drop everything I am doing right now if they asked me to do it again.Social Work is my way back, figure I can do alot of good with the guys fighten now.
Hurricane seson 2008 is history, I am a weather fan, especialy with the tropical systems for obvious reason my home is Puerto Rico all live long.

I found this blog this year and is with out any doubt is the best live tropical systems information place available in America.

Here we have guys who forescast at NHC standard and do it live and free, to mention some of the names that cames to my mind:

Ike, Drakoen, Strom W, Kamanislander among other.

And of corse Orca with his exelent blog.

Thanks to WeatherUnderground.com and all who makes this blog posible.

I will be log in on June 01, 2009.

Good evening folks

96L continues to sit and spin near 11n 81W and seems to be migrating ever so slowly to the NNW.

Sat imagery does show a very well defined spin near those coordinates and the 850 mb vort has improved over the course of the day. Very little in the way of a surface low over the course of the last 2 days but perhaps that is changing.

Quikscat tonight will hopefully tell us whether any development is at the surface or whether it remains restricted to the mid levels of the atmosphere.
Quoting Hurricane4Lex:


I know I'm late to announce but wow how that happen that's a great pic

maybe its the invisible alien aircraft that keeps hurricanes away from tampa

just right weather conditions brought it to visibility
more likly somebody dump a porta pottyas they flew over
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
nice flare near 30 55 strong non tropical system open atlantic moving se ward
96l stalled will pull n beginning at end of week in response to a dev boundry and low pressure over se gulf states fri into weekend after current system over lakes pulls away to ne
we still may have a hat trick
5 days to go

Steering layers now showing a weakness in the NW Caribbean and the Eastern GOM between two high pressure systems. This would tend to open the door for 96L to head NNW or N.

Shear would be the inhibiting factor against significant development.

Link
Quikscat just downloaded for this evening. There is a small but very tight closed low near 10/11N 81W. If this persists we could see 96L upgraded to a high probability for development.



Link
Quoting TampaSpin:
Very unsual siting in Tampa today......look at this cloud formation......



heres the link....Link
Big score with that one ol' buddy.
NOAA lists that as "hole punch clouds" formed by ice crystals falling through cloud layer. Created by jet exhaust. Your's is by far better than any one they have featured. You should submit it to them. You'll be imortalized in cyber space LOL
OOPS..just saw the Baynews9 reference.
been watchin for a few days now its waiting for everything to come together then we may have something if not already
Hi Kman, good to see you - how are things on the island?
Nice to see Orca has new pics for us, also very glad storm time is over - I think we've already had more cold fronts this month then all of last year.
Quoting zoomiami:
Hi Kman, good to see you - how are things on the island?


Really nice now. Low 70s in the morning with fresh NE winds near 25 mph. Cool days with the windows open and no rain.

" Winter " is on the way LMAO
Winter in the tropics is what every one puts up with the rest for. Its beautiful.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
been watchin for a few days now its waiting for everything to come together then we may have something if not already


The convection is blowing up tonight and the " spin " looks better than at anytime today. Perhaps the swan song for the 2008 season
214. zoomiami 2:18 AM GMT on November 25, 2008

The funny thing is that my home has so much insulation that the outside temp was lower than the inside over the last week. Kind of silly to run the a/c to cool the home to match outside temp so turned it off and opened the windows !
Photobucket

Photobucket


Good luck 96L.

One of the paradoxes of having great insulation is that it also holds the internal heat inside the home. It is surprising how much heat appliances, computers,halogen lights etc can generate inside a home.

My kitchen alone tends to run 2 degrees warmer than the rest of the home. Something to think about when trying to conserve energy and keep a home cool.
I'm out for tonight. 96L will hopefully cap off a very interesting season. This late would suggest no further development but the year has been filled with systems defying the norm.

Have a great evening all. Will check in tomorrow.
Quoting kmanislander:


The convection is blowing up tonight and the " spin " looks better than at anytime today. Perhaps the swan song for the 2008 season
yet thats what iam figuring one last run should be it
Quoting antonio28:
Hurricane seson 2008 is history, I am a weather fan, especialy with the tropical systems for obvious reason my home is Puerto Rico all live long.

I found this blog this year and is with out any doubt is the best live tropical systems information place available in America.

Here we have guys who forescast at NHC standard and do it live and free, to mention some of the names that cames to my mind:

Ike, Drakoen, Strom W, Kamanislander among other.

And of corse Orca with his exelent blog.

Thanks to WeatherUnderground.com and all who makes this blog posible.

I will be log in on June 01, 2009.



It probably a good idea for you not to come back untill June 1st lol. You don't want to have to deal with the pre-season drama.
Quoting kmanislander:
Quikscat just downloaded for this evening. There is a small but very tight closed low near 10/11N 81W. If this persists we could see 96L upgraded to a high probability for development.

Link



Kman (if you haven't gone....)
the qscat for Pac area just S of Panama and the Low seems to show that the "circulation" is drawing from the Pacific
CRS
Link
thats the best part drakoen
Quoting Drakoen:


It probably a good idea for you not to come back untill June 1st lol. You don't want to have to deal with the pre-season drama.


Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
thats the best part drakoen


LOL! amen to that I'll probably be back when the 1st one forms (since historically the letter A has struck texas with the recent exception of this year ala Dolly and Ike and I think im forgetting another)
225. fo
Well, Texas was the closest state to Andrew... at least I think so
KOG.. is it snowing yet :)

As kman noted earlier, 96L's circulation has become better defined. Satellite imagery and QuikSCAT data confirms this. The circulation still isn't closed, though, and I still don't think this is going to be a rapid developer, if it develops at all. Northern portion is still heavily sheared, as noted by the sharp cirrus spike stretching SW to NE along the northern portion of the circulation.

Still, shear has been steadily decreasing over the last 24 hours, and SSTs beneath 96L are warm, and so if it does good during the diurnal convective maximum, and maintains that convection through the diurnal minimum, it may have a shot at tropical depression status tomorrow evening.

Just my opinion, of course.
no orca cold rain temps are around 4 or 39 in my area all the snow we had is gone
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
no orca cold rain temps are around 4 or 39 in my area all the snow we had is gone

Thats to bad.. I love it when it snows there :) I think about it every time about this part of the year..as I tee off on the course :)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
lol


Here is what happens when you peeve ORCA fishing :)
230 - Orca - ROFLMAO - My kind of fishing!!
Quoting RTLSNK:
230 - Orca - ROFLMAO - My kind of fishing!!


These guys could teach a redneck to fish :)
232 - I remember that Movie with Richard Harris wasn't it where he killed the mother and baby Orca? I was pulling for the Orca.
Quoting RTLSNK:
232 - I remember that Movie with Richard Harris wasn't it where he killed the mother and baby Orca? I was pulling for the Orca.


I have never seen that.. but I know here if you hurt one.. you best be running for a long long time.. they are like gods up here.
It was a rough movie to watch, he was a commercial fisherman with a good size boat, and he hooked a female Orca and hauled her up onto the deck with a crane and her baby came out and died on the deck with the father Orca watching. The Orca followed him back to the fishing town where Harris lived and began a reign of terror on the harbor destroying every boat and building in the harbor and killing everyone that fell in the water until Harris went back out to take him on one on one. Harris lost.
The GFS is at it again with the feedback issues. Now there trying to develop a ridge over Florida for the upcoming weekend into the early next week. Looking at the NAO which is likely to stay Nagitive until after New Years(at the most). Plus the ridge out west(which will weaken and head southeast-word and park itself over deep south Texas during that time). The latest run of the long ranch GFS has been very unreliable lately(not to mention, all the other global models differ in amplifying a deep trough for the east. Courtesy of the -NAO).
BBL
You win Orca. Sure beats my tarpon experience...
Well as a Minnesotan, I can tell you that the Farmers Almanac has missed the mark if they say that the Upper Midwest temperatures are going to be above average. So far this season, we have been pretty much right on target for what our climate was prior to the warm spell we have had.
It's been warmer than normal for the previous 5 years prior to 2007. Last year was closer to normal temperatures and like I said this year has pretty much been on target with the average. Precipitation on the other hand is still running a little behind normal, though we seemed to catch up pretty much during August and October. Now it's a wait and see how much snow we get. During this time we have gone from 24 inches on the ground to 0 inches on the ground. What we have gotten so far is probably with in average, but none of it has stayed on the ground. It all melts away with in a few hours of get 1/2 to 1 inch. At least here in the South side of the Twin Cities. I hear that there is more snow up in the Northern parts of Minnesota, but haven't seen this show up in the snow reports and haven't been up there myself to verify this. We need to get back into our old jet stream patterns where warm moist air is brought in from the Southern Pacific area and mixed with the cold air that we have now. Some folks that I've talked to think that we will get that more towards Jan. through Mar. Time will tell I guess. But so far we have plenty of cold air to go around. The ski slopes around here are making lots and lots of snow.
I could not sleep so i changed the music on my blog for you early risers.......hope you enjoy....

TampaSpins Weather Blog Link
20081125/0222z
SE-PAC 24.0S 156.7W 1006 MB 25 kts 99P "INVEST"
Escucho Sonido. Silencio bajo el sonido.
Good Morning 56F and cloudy with light SW wind here in ILM
245. IKE
137 hours....
52 minutes...
and it's over~



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...
IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND EASTERN
HONDURAS ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM
DRIFTS WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

later this morning the costa rica surf cam needs to be showing onshore winds if our 96l is becoming more organized. never really liked led zepplin and those other rockers. more into jazz and the dead.
247. IKE
Quoting leftovers:
later this morning the costa rica surf cam needs to be showing onshore winds if our 96l is becoming more organized. never really liked led zepplin and those other rockers. more into jazz and the dead.


Hey...to each his own.

ZEP ROXS!
Ken Kaye writes for the Sun Sentinel...he also blogs on the WUnderground as StormKen!



Thanksgiving Day forecast: Beautiful


Here is the Thanksgiving Day forecast: Almost perfect.

That is, unless you’re a turkey.

For the rest of us, it should be a sunny mild day, with afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 70s and light breezes, the National Weather Service said.

“It does look like a beautiful day in store for Thanksgiving,” meteorologist Dan Dixon said.

The morning might be a bit nippy, in the mid to upper 40s in Palm Beach County and in the low to mid 50s in Broward and Miami-Dade counties.

But, hey, many of you were craving some brisk weather for the holidays, right?

In all, most of this week should be glorious, with somewhat chilly mornings, temperate afternoons and cool evenings. We probably won’t see the temperature reach 80 degrees until the weekend.

Now, I don’t know about you, but I’m going to take advantage of the beautiful weather on Thanksgiving by ... watching football on TV. My prediction: The Tennessee Titans, Dallas Cowboys and Arizona Cardinals will be winners.


Link
Good morning...
Good Morning -- in briefly -- Looks like a nice day out there.... I've had it with the cold fronts........already!! -- I am a wuss -- surf site says another is coming our way... you know if you want to torture me -- turn on the cold
Photobucket

A cold front will swing through southwest Florida today, with a reinforcing blast of cool and dry air arriving behind it. Patchy frost will be possible from Hernando County northward overnight, with another chance as far south as southern Hillsborough County Wednesday Night. Fire weather will also be a concern as the dry air settles in both Wednesday and Thursday afternoon.


Wondering how 96L faired through the night.

Oh, after scrolling back -- THE ORCA WHALE IS A GOD......and if Harris hurt my kid.......LOL he'd regret it too. Just ask the dude I caught red-handed stealing my kids brand new bike.......several months ago...... CAT 5 Mom!!! Dude will think twice before he steals again
251 - Ohhhh Vortfix -- that is just what I don't want to see.
I do see some waves drawn on the picture........only nice part about it
251 - Ohhhh Vortfix -- that is just what I don't want to see.


Whoooooops!

Sorry Surfmomma!!

LOL
I think thats is going to be a cold paddle tomorrow morning surfmom
Way cold Ft.Pierce.... maybe it's me, but when I surf in this cold -- I am just knocked out for the day and maybe the next --my spirit is revived, but physically I get drained......my core gets cold and I'm chattering for a long time.....
Looking like a clean 2ftr Wednesday morning
Carib is going OFF -saw beautiful & incredible pictures from PR. Looks like you'll have some EC waves on Thursday Ft. Pierce -- will you be able to get wet?
maybe it's me, but when I surf in this cold -- I am just knocked out for the day and maybe the next --my spirit is revived, but physically I get drained......my core gets cold and I'm chattering for a long time.....


Back in the Stoneage when I used to surf...that's exactly how I always felt after surfing in cold weather.

We didn't have much of a wet suit selection back then either....mostly nothing!
Argh

Kudo's to a lot of the people on this page.. when I mentioned going south for a quick vacation.. the offers and assistance made from members on here was unbelievable... we are quite the little family on here. The wife was blown away that people would do that for people they have never even met.

Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site
Thanks Vortfix for the insight.....post 260 ...actually you made my day by being honest.... most of the MEN just look at me and snicker, so I think it's just me being a whinner.

Your point regarding wetsuits is well taken, the materials and what we have today are amazing.... the flexibility, the seal off, far better... my favorite new favorite thing is how they use Titanium as insulation or Teflon-lycra-neoprene --these fabrics are amazing innovations
my favorite new favorite thing is how they use Titanium as insulation or Teflon-lycra-neoprene --these fabrics are amazing innovations


WOW!

I know absolutely nothing about these materials in a wet-suit application.
Sounds interesting........

Good Morning everyone. I just updated my blog if anyone would like to review.....

TampaSpins Weather Blog Link
Do you think Jeff Masters realizes the networking that goes on here??? I often wonder if he reads our posts here & visits the blog board to see what we are up to & where we have the format he gave us.

Also wonder, if when he started WU, he fathomed such a "community" would evolve?

What continues to amaze me is that for all our diversity -- beside the commonality of Weather fascination -- there are a great many things we all resonant on. Socially -- i find the whole thing fascinating.... I have had the opportunity to meet more people of my genre here then in my town -- where often I feel like a stranger in a strange land. In other words, I find more "outside girls" here -- then I do in my community....
Quoting surfmom:
Thanks Vortfix for the insight.....post 260 ...actually you made my day by being honest.... most of the MEN just look at me and snicker, so I think it's just me being a whinner.

Your point regarding wetsuits is well taken, the materials and what we have today are amazing.... the flexibility, the seal off, far better... my favorite new favorite thing is how they use Titanium as insulation or Teflon-lycra-neoprene --these fabrics are amazing innovations


I take it thats for your little Bull shark friend? Makes their play toy last a little longer.. like unwrapping a Christmas present?
Frontal Squall line coming.....not much there..

It's always a "tickle" for me when I have information for you guys LOL....
check this out Billabong - The Equator - features 100% metallite .5mm interior - metalite is a titanium coated interior acting like a thermal blanket trapping body heat and reflecting the elements. Sandwiched with a .5mm neoprene - most techno advance material avail. -- seamless

AquaFitness - this is a skin, very thin, like a leotard - Aqua Akins (Teflon, lycra-neoprene)

I surf in the Pyscho, by O'neil and layer underneath w/the above depending on the conditions
I think a wetsuit made out of Kevlar would be a great idea, with matching Kevlar footies and gloves, maybe a helmet with spikes, a small phaser, an anti-grav unit, wait a minute, I think I'm crossing my participles.
I take it thats for your little Bull shark friend? Makes their play toy last a little longer.. like unwrapping a Christmas present?


WoooHooo....LOL!

Actually, Orca I had hopes I would just blend and he'd think I was a buddy --Also thought well, maybe this could afford a little "bite" protection.....NOT

Later that day, after seeing that Bull go past me, I went over to the other Jetty to see a fishermen and friend HAUL a bull out--- the teeth, the teeeth, the teeth.....OMG the teeth.

Makes a wet suit, just like a Candy Wrapper
wait a minute, I think I'm crossing my participles.


OMG...not that!

You might end up like me...a piece of toast!
LOL


Photobucket

Quoting RTLSNK:
I think a wetsuit made out of Kevlar would be a great idea, with matching Kevlar footies and gloves, maybe a helmet with spikes, a small phaser, an anti-grav unit, wait a minute, I think I'm crossing my participles.
Eventually I beleive they will come up with some kind of natural repellent, .... my Dad recalled from the navy that when they wrapped underwater equipment in black... the sharks would mess with it.... but for some reason (unverifiable) he seemed to recall that they switch to Brown and then the sharks were no longer interested. Have always wondered about that

272 - Vortfix - ROFLMAO - gives a whole new visual impact to the phrase-"hes toast"
ROFLMAO - gives a whole new visual impact to the phrase-"hes toast"


Yep...I thought so too!
LMAO

Have a good AM -- Got some work tasks to get done for Boss-Spouse, as well as domestics.....catch you all lunch time...... : )
96L appears to be just off-shore...still moving s l o w l y to the NW:




Photobucket

Have a great day Surfmom!

273 - Surfmom - Yeah, the Navy has done extensive testing with all kinds of repellents and emergency rafts and so on. I had a friend who was a Navy Seal, he had some wild stories about sharks and various sea monsters!hahaha Won't tell you any of them. I have watched nearly all of the Discovery and Natl Geo docs on sharks and one of them stands out. Marine biologist said on one of them "man is not on a sharks normal diet, and very often one will bite a diver because he is wearing a wet suit that makes him look like a seal. He will then realize that the diver is not a fish and let go." My brain instantly said to itself - the key phrase there was "BITE A DIVER", the shark swims off a little ways and says to itself, hmmm, blood, hmmm, my job is to clean up anything bleeding in my ocean, hmmm, HEY FRED, lunch is here!!!! LOL
96l'S CENTER apppears to be near 82W,10.5N.....looks much more exposed than yesterday,w/a mid level circulation displaced to the north,further organization w/be slow with the chance of a TD or TS by thanksgiving if it can stay over water,the surface low has moved wsw in the last 24hrs...
Mom
They already have a fullproof shark repellant.
It's called "geography" lol
Got our 5 minutes of rain. Sending it on South.
Saw a shark coming near, between me and the beach (swam out past the bars, E coast), doing that feeding mode twitching (the shark, not me;). I swam without splashing (dog paddle) straight toward him, and he left.
Your results may vary.
It appears the spaghetti's are no longer being run or published regarding 96L.

No published runs since the 00Z.


Here is where the Low Center was analyzed as of 9:39AM EST:


Photobucket

." My brain instantly said to itself - the key phrase there was "BITE A DIVER", the shark swims off a little ways and says to itself, hmmm, blood, hmmm, my job is to clean up anything bleeding in my ocean, hmmm, HEY FRED, lunch is here!!!! LOL


ROFL!!

Current frontal location:


SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1014 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2008

FLZ050>052-055-GMZ830-251630-
HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-PINELLAS-POLK-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
1014 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2008

.NOW...
A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE NORTHERN
TAMPA BAY AREA AND EXTENDED INLAND TO LAKELAND.
THE SHOWERS
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MIDDLE AND LOWER TAMPA BAY AND
EXTEND FROM BRADENTON TO BARTOW BY 11:30 AM. THE SHOWERS WERE
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM A
TRACE TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO
EXTENDED IN THE GULF OUT 60 MILES FROM EGMONT KEY.


Photobucket

283. vortfix 10:17
It appears the spaghetti's are no longer being run or published regarding 96L

It's not spaghetti, It's a doughnut. For breakfast.
Good Morning All: Haven't been on in a few days - a bit busy. Interesting to see 96L which doesn't appear that it will have any impact. Nice to see the winter blog continuing.
Bye guys, bug man is here, gonna set off a small anti wolf spider device under the house in the crawl space, have decided to go medieval on the fangy little things. LOL
never has there been a shark attack in puerto rico. i came close to one once surfing near aquada (bc's). big fin swimming right at me i turned around paddled hard and never looked back. ten minutes later there were ten others out not one saw anything. here in fl i've seen a mess of them definitely more active here. my trip to nicaraqua coming up is getting kind of hairy. not only 96l to worry about but the sandanistas are making a rustle. mobs are ruling mananaqua police are no where to be found. and to top those two problems a volcano about 20miles north of where we are going has started erupting. have a happy weather day.
GM,all,hope your weather is better than mine,rain and more rain,some coastal locations have wind gusts over 50.
Quoting NEwxguy:
GM,all,hope your weather is better than mine,rain and more rain,some coastal locations have wind gusts over 50.
Ours is really nice here in Melbourne, FL. We'll try to send better weather your way!
Dr.Masters,
Any thoughts on Storm Session on the Weather Channel?
Quoting RTLSNK:
Bye guys, bug man is here, gonna set off a small anti wolf spider device under the house in the crawl space, have decided to go medieval on the fangy little things. LOL


LMAO, why do I get this mental picture of miniature M18A1 Claymore's ringing your house?

Nice to see everyone in fine form today...In lurk mode...
96L is having an impact....

One Dead, 5.000 in Shelters Due To Rain in Limón
One dead, some 5.000 evacuated in 39 communities, 17 towns cut off and 28 roads affected are the result of the rain that has been falling on the Caribbean coast for the last five days.

The areas of Sixaola and Bribri, on the southern part of the province of Limón are completely cut off from the rest of the country, and the water is also threatening the plantations and livelihood of many of the residents.

The Comisión Nacional de Emergencias (CNE) - national emergency commission - along with the Cruz Roja Costarricense (Red Cross) and government agencies, have been busy trying to get to the affected, providing shelters, food and fresh water.

However, the rain is not ceasing.

MORE
NEwxguy,

So far we have 4.8" of snow here, heading for around 5". The backend of a wqeak deformation band is over my area right now and should be for at least the next 90 minutes.
Hello ! Anyone here ? Just checking in for a short one.
Its hot, breezy, not a cloud around. Nice for the beach.....
Hey Pottery,

Same here, beautiful day...slippin in between honey-do items...
LOL Rob. Me too. But now, she has gone out heheheh.
Fixing some plumbing, preparing for dry times. Not looking forward to dry season at all at all.
96L has been pounding Costarica with heavy rain. Not a nice situation there.
Thanks Skye.
Yeah, guess I don't get it...if all those leaves weren't supposed to be on the ground then why did they fall there...Car rolls right over them, dog don't seem to mind...cat likes to jump and make crunchy noises...but I guess I'm supposed to clear a perimeter around the house today.
think I may have been spotted "goofing off"...
-later
There goes a driven man............
looks like the GFS has changed it's mind in not stalling a front over the weekend for the southeast.
Just checking in to see what the talk is about today. Hi Sully. Have to check your forecast next, just checked Blizz. It is fairly nice out today with temp in the upper 30s. Partly cloudy
Flooding in Brazil has killed 68 so far, mostly from mudslides. Also in Columbia, due to volcano eruption, several deaths due to landslides.
videos at BBC.
Quoting RobDaHood:
Yeah, guess I don't get it...if all those leaves weren't supposed to be on the ground then why did they fall there...Car rolls right over them, dog don't seem to mind...cat likes to jump and make crunchy noises...but I guess I'm supposed to clear a perimeter around the house today.


It's like that on my college campus. They get the leaves nice and pilled up and the wind blows them back out before they get picked up. What's worse is the squirrels and stundents jumping in them. It's nothing to see a person running and jumping into a pile of leaves.
Raking dry leaves is ok, if you use the leaves after.
Leaf litter contains all the natural chemistry needed for good soil health, and strong growth.
The dry leaves are part of the cycle of trees. They are supposed to fall off, and they are supposed to stay on the ground under the tree, so that when they decompose, the tree is supplied with a dose of nutrient for the new growth-season.
So, if you can, keep the leaves in a mulch enclosure, or even in a hole in the ground. When they decompose you can use this mulch instead of fertiliser. The mulch will also contain earthworms, and critters of all sorts that will benefit growth of potted plants etc.
Leaf litter is good stuff. Try to use it instead of dumping it.

In fact, a healthy forest is dependent entirely on falling leaves, trees, branches, for its success. Forest biomass is always in equilibrium due to the continual recycling that goes on. The soil is never impoverished. And a layer of litter on the floor prevents erosion, and keeps temps under control.
The termites, fungi, mosses, worms and other critters, down to microscopic, all serve to break the litter down to useable nutrient for growth.
Of course, sunlight and rain are vital. But if you raked a forest you would kill it in a couple years. Fire is bad, but a least the nutrient remains behind in the ash.
Sorry to wander off topic there.
Here endeth the 1st. lesson.
The driven man...

Really, it's like this...I look at the list and seek out the greatest ROI (return on investment) No way all this stuff gets done this week, so what can I do that requires the least amount of work and "looks" like something really got accomplished. Fire up mower and mulch majority of leaves, repair leaf blower and blow leaves from around house and into woods where nature will take it's course. (who the heck left that door open...almost messed up there)...bust my butt for an hour, missy comes home and it "looks" like I've been slaving away...don't tell that I fixed the blower...tell her how someone left mower with no gas and used last of can and didn't tell me...feels a bit sorry 4 me...household bliss. ROI Next item...

Oops! sorry guys, may have revealed too much LOL

BTW Pottery, big fan of composting, Most of property is wooded...you should have seen the compost pile I had after Charlie/Francis/Jeanne...Big as a house.
Live Interaction w/the ColdFront - SRQ...took lunch on the run... Saw Tampaspins map and figured to run into the front. So much fun to look towards Tampa and see the distinct could, dark skyline moving towards me -- timed it perfectly, The front "chased me back" with the last half mile a perfect light drizzle..... Maps in real time -- It's so much fun to read the flags blowing in the wind,read the clouds..get the timing down - understand what I'm looking at, being right under "The Line" -- Think this might make the horse track very nice to ride -- The track is rock hard -- no rain or moisture - this kind of drizzle and all the additional horse traffic as people return will make the track the consistency horse love to trot and canter on.
Rob, ....I'll put that in the treasure chest and throw away the key LOL
LOL

HI surfmom...just in for a cool drink and quick blog check! Hope you're having a great day...back to work.
314. JRRP
Link
GFDL
The GFDL is drunk.
Me too - Dinner Prep & off to the barn Later
Quoting Skyepony:
96L is having an impact....

One Dead, 5.000 in Shelters Due To Rain in Limón
One dead, some 5.000 evacuated in 39 communities, 17 towns cut off and 28 roads affected are the result of the rain that has been falling on the Caribbean coast for the last five days.

The areas of Sixaola and Bribri, on the southern part of the province of Limón are completely cut off from the rest of the country, and the water is also threatening the plantations and livelihood of many of the residents.

The Comisión Nacional de Emergencias (CNE) - national emergency commission - along with the Cruz Roja Costarricense (Red Cross) and government agencies, have been busy trying to get to the affected, providing shelters, food and fresh water.

However, the rain is not ceasing.

MORE
Wow, that is just horrible. Guess I need to check closer before opening my mouth!
Cotillion, the GFDL can't be drunk.
It's all good conchygirl, our weather has been too nice. I hope for a little rain from this front. Like Pottery, dreading the dry season. Dusty already & it's time to throw the pasture winter rye, atleast according to the Farmer's Almanac garden moon calender & the mid 80ºs seem done for the season. So been tackling the leaves too but raking & dumping in my leafy compost. Gonna rake a little done compost in over the seed & probibly have to water good for 5 days or so.
If they leave the earthview camera on for the next ten minutes on the ISS, I think we can get a realtime view of 96L

the link I use in Media player is
Link
Check out this site...an example bad placement of thermometers. And I know there is no way that NCDC checks the quality of this data.
Link
They took AF307 out today & chucked a sonde 132 miles (212 km) to the SSW (196°) from Pensacola, FL, USA. Look at the shear..

1024mb (Surface) 15° (from the NNE) 16 knots (18 mph)
996mb 20° (from the NNE) 22 knots (25 mph)
948mb 20° (from the NNE) 20 knots (23 mph)
935mb 10° (from the N) 16 knots (18 mph)
920mb 350° (from the N) 21 knots (24 mph)
890mb 325° (from the NW) 17 knots (20 mph)
850mb 320° (from the NW) 21 knots (24 mph)
793mb 310° (from the NW) 19 knots (22 mph)
769mb 325° (from the NW) 25 knots (29 mph)
718mb 305° (from the NW) 19 knots (22 mph)
655mb 315° (from the NW) 24 knots (28 mph)
603mb 300° (from the WNW) 28 knots (32 mph)
460mb 315° (from the NW) 38 knots (44 mph)
355mb 290° (from the WNW) 41 knots (47 mph)
313mb 280° (from the W) 56 knots (64 mph)
307mb 280° (from the W) 82 knots (94 mph)
299mb 270° (from the W) 57 knots (66 mph)
Quoting surfmom:
Do you think Jeff Masters realizes the networking that goes on here??? I often wonder if he reads our posts here & visits the blog board to see what we are up to & where we have the format he gave us.

Also wonder, if when he started WU, he fathomed such a "community" would evolve?

What continues to amaze me is that for all our diversity -- beside the commonality of Weather fascination -- there are a great many things we all resonant on. Socially -- i find the whole thing fascinating.... I have had the opportunity to meet more people of my genre here then in my town -- where often I feel like a stranger in a strange land. In other words, I find more "outside girls" here -- then I do in my community....
Skye: Where are you located?
325. IKE
Quoting conchygirl:
Skye: Where are you located?


Their in....Melbourne, Florida
NCDC site:

hey folks =)

hows things in the sunny blogosphere?
Conchygirl~ for some reason I was thinking we are near nieghbors?

Pretty interesting the weather stations, encouraging people to grab their cameras & visit their local. You would think there would be more. The burn barrel is pushing it (if it is actually used). The tennis court though.. do you propose we don't take temps in town? suburbs? at airports?
Glad to see the season is finally over for the eastern Caribbean. Time to get some serious sailing at least planned, after paying tribute to the appropriate maintenance gods.
Quoting msphar:
Glad to see the season is finally over for the eastern Caribbean. Time to get some serious sailing at least planned, after paying tribute to the appropriate maintenance gods.


2003 had a storm in the Cape Verde islands in December.

A storm has existed in every month known, it's never absolutely over. It's just a probability chance. At the moment, we're in a favourable pulse of MJO. While it's not likely to find a 17th, still feasible.
Quoting Skyepony:
Conchygirl~ for some reason I was thinking we are near nieghbors. Didn't realize you were in Melbourne too until I looked at your pics. Great, great weather - clouds rolling in now though. Darn work calling again!
so I guess we finally gave up on the disastrous gloom and doom hurricane predictions for florida this year?
327. Bonedog

Hi Bonedog, guess things are busier on the outside...Pottery and I working on our "Lists"...Surfmom, back to the barn...(sounds like an album title)...RTLSNK: Going Medevial- The Spider Wars (look for it on Sci-Fi next summer)

Hope all is well with you

Hi Conchy, Cotillion, Ike, Skypony, and everyone else.
Quoting RobDaHood:
327. Bonedog

Hi Bonedog, guess things are busier on the outside...Pottery and I working on our "Lists"...Surfmom, back to the barn...(sounds like an album title)...RTLSNK: Going Medevial- The Spider Wars (look for it on Sci-Fi next summer)

Hope all is well with you

Hi Conchy, Cotillion, Ike, Skypony, and everyone else.


Lists? Do elaborate...

And hello :)
Quoting Cotillion:


Lists? Do elaborate...

And hello :)


Too long, read-back!
afternoon,all,busy day today,thought I'd check in and see who's getting in trouble today
337. N3EG
Quoting txag91met:
NCDC site

Quoting txag91met:
Check out this site...an example bad placement of thermometers. And I know there is no way that NCDC checks the quality of this data.



Finally...proof that global warming is man-made...
Quoting NEwxguy:
afternoon,all,busy day today,thought I'd check in and see who's getting in trouble today


Everybody pretty much behavin'
Hey Rob.

Yea work is busy today.

Surprisingly slow blog with an invest out there.
Hmm. My football team (As in my football, not throwball) Plymouth Argyle are playing Southampton tonight.

On the Southampton bench, they have a goalkeeper called...

Link

What a shame he did not turn out to be a meteorologist.
341. 786
339. Just gotta say the conversation has been about everything but 96L...maybe if we start a discussion on it people will join in.

I do see 96L getting sheared, but this year has been full of suprises and shear is forecast to relax a bit. It looks like it may start moving N this weekend
Bone

everybody in wait and see mode. I don't think it's a threat to anybody but central america, unless there's a drastic change that I haven't picked up on, and it will soak them good. That's too bad. The biggest threat to them from most storms is the flooding rains, they're already getting that.

But yeah, let this thing turn into a TS and this place will be jumpin.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number THREE
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB07-2008
20:30 PM IST November 25 2008
========================================

Sub: Deep Depression over Sri Lanka coast & adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal

Cyclone alert for Tamil Nadu coast (Yellow)


At 20:30 PM IST, The Deep Depression over Sri Lanka moved northward and lays centered over Sri Lanka coast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal near 9.0N 81.0E, or about 200 kms east-southeast of Pamban and about 240 kms south-southeast of Nagapattinam, and close to the northwest of Tricomalee (Sri Lanka). The system is likelyto intensify into a cyclonic storm and move slowly in a northwesterly direction and cross Tamil Nadu coast between Pamban and Nagapattinam by tomorrow night.
344. 786
342. you forgot the part of it heading North toward FL
LOL yea Rb nothing impressive at all but figured some would be on here going bananas over it.

Might just be I have them all on ignore and cant see it LOL

Watching the models in eager anticipation for a possible coastal storm up here just after Thanksgiving =) Looks like it might be a snow maker if it pans out
Hi again. Got my list done, except for the cooking part. But I dont mind that.
Wonderful image of the weather station.
Cot, I hope that Mr. Forecast can keep a clean sheet for you today.
96L is in no danger of becoming a Trop. Storm, IMO, but it has already caused deaths and major mayhem in CostaRica. Probably in other areas as well. There have been deaths in Caracas, Brazil, Columbia recently from heavy rain. Dont need wind to cause deaths, as we know.

Pottery, he's on the opposing team. ;)
OOOOOPS. Sorry Cot, I see Mr. Forecast is the Enemy. Put 5 past the scoundrel, if you would.
Pottery, see #310 heheheh just received new mission.

344. 786 - I don't see that happening, but if it does it way to far out to say what if any effect it would have on FL...I wouldn't expect much, but never say never.

Being paged again, will catch up on your posts in a little while.
350. DDR
Hi pottery,do you know when the cmo radar network will be up and running?
N3EG, post 337.
I love it. heheheh
LOL to that Rob. Saw it earlier. Cooking gives me big ROI. And shortly after eating, well, it's bed time.........
Hi DDR, hang on I will try to call the Met office.........
354. DDR
Quoting pottery:
Hi DDR, hang on I will try to call the Met office.........

Cool...thanks
Quoting Cotillion:
Hmm. My football team (As in my football, not throwball) Plymouth Argyle are playing Southampton tonight.

On the Southampton bench, they have a goalkeeper called...

Link

What a shame he did not turn out to be a meteorologist.


Lol...
Its 0-0...
My 2 teams are:

Ipswich Town (Losing 2-0 against Birmingham)
and
Afc Wimbledon (not been playing alot of games in the BSS)
My comment for the day:

2008 has been a terrible year for many. We talk about how Cubans and Haitians have especially suffered, with Haiti getting Fay, Gus, Hanna and Ike back to back. Cuba getting major after major. The United States Gulf Coast getting pummeled in two of its main weak spots.

Over one thousand people have died in the Atlantic alone. Over $50 billion damage caused.

Even 19 fatalities and millions worth of damage in the East Pacific.

So far, over 1,700 people have died in the Western Pacific. Over 3 billion damage has been caused there this year as well.

Other seasons also begin, such as that in Australia where we have heard and read stories of how places like Queensland are suffering.

Though, the story which has dominated this year is that of Cyclone Nargis. Even now, the place is devastated. The death toll could even exceed 150,000 people.

The 7th most deadliest cyclone in recorded history. Of the whole world. Even the top 10 most fatal cyclones in the Atlantic could not equate to that much destruction.

While every death is a tragedy especially in such a natural disaster, don't forget those on the other side of the world. Some people there may not even have another family member left alive.

We are right to help those in need, even in rich countries. Those on the Texan gulf coast do need help, and it will take some time for that area to be cleaned up. Parts of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama are probably still reeling from 2005. Haiti, especially on the Northern coast near Gonaives, will be feeling 2008 for some years.

But they will recover. Recall the link I posted a few days ago pertaining Hurricane Mitch? Even ten years later, there are troubles. Entire towns remain wiped out, not being rebuilt. Some places in Myanmar may never recover.

We are all brothers and sisters in this, spare a thought for those next door, and those thousands of miles away.
Quoting Cotillion:
My comment for the day:

2008 has been a terrible year for many. We talk about how Cubans and Haitians have especially suffered, with Haiti getting Fay, Gus, Hanna and Ike back to back. Cuba getting major after major. The United States Gulf Coast getting pummeled in two of its main weak spots.

Over one thousand people have died in the Atlantic alone. Over $50 billion damage caused.

Even 19 fatalities and millions worth of damage in the East Pacific.

So far, over 1,700 people have died in the Western Pacific. Over 3 billion damage has been caused there this year as well.

Other seasons also begin, such as that in Australia where we have heard and read stories of how places like Queensland are suffering.

Though, the story which has dominated this year is that of Cyclone Nargis. Even now, the place is devastated. The death toll could even exceed 150,000 people.

The 7th most deadliest cyclone in recorded history. Of the whole world. Even the top 10 most fatal cyclones in the Atlantic could not equate to that much destruction.

While every death is a tragedy especially in such a natural disaster, don't forget those on the other side of the world. Some people there may not even have another family member left alive.

We are right to help those in need, even in rich countries. Those on the Texan gulf coast do need help, and it will take some time for that area to be cleaned up. Parts of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama are probably still reeling from 2005. Haiti, especially on the Northern coast near Gonaives, will be feeling 2008 for some years.

But they will recover. Recall the link I posted a few days ago pertaining Hurricane Mitch? Even ten years later, there are troubles. Entire towns remain wiped out, not being rebuilt. Some places in Myanmar may never recover.

We are all brothers and sisters in this, spare a thought for those next door, and those thousands of miles away.


I agree.. I think we should have a minute of blog silence on December 25th for them all....
DDR, spoke to the Met office. Very nice Lady forecaster. Did not get her name.
The Radar is up and running. The info. is only available to them !! I said that is BAD! She said if I wanted, I could make an appointment to go to Piarco to have a look at it !!
She also said that she would pass my request for access up the line. They MAY put a link to it on the Met Services website at some stage.
Give it a couple days, and call yourself, with a similar request. If they think that no one is interested they will never make it available. I did tell them that people on this blog are asking about it.
If we can get a few Foriengers asking, then they will do it.
How it go look ?.
Good post Cotillion. 356.


Typhoon Jangmi, from earlier this year. Visually good enough to be in textbooks for the next 10 years.
There should be a day dedicated to those who died not only in hurricanes but any other natural disaster not to offend anyone but we commemorate stuff that didn't do as much harm as natural disasters do monthly Nonetheless these tragedies are forgotten in time. Maybe if we ever did get such a day we might learn the lessons of those previous storms instead of forgetting those too
360. Cotillion

Remember watching that one on sat and going WOW repeatedly. Wow got quite a bit of use this year.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone Warning #1 (2100z 25NOV)
==========================================
At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone SIX (NONAME) has sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is located 245 NM east of Cochrin, India and is reported as moving north-northwest at 3 knots. Over the past 6 hours, recent animated multispectral satellite imagery and a 1415z SSMIS microwave image show deep convection wrapping into a well-defined low level circulation center, especially within the northern semi-circle. The initial intensity is 40 knots which is consistent with dvorak intensity estimates from PGTW and KNES. The satellite presenation,and topographical influences. Upper level dynamics are favorable for continued intensification with excellent radial outflow and low vertical wind shear, however continued land interaction will prevent significant intensification prior to making landfall. The cyclone is forecast to track slowly northwest trough the Palk strait and will make landfall with eastern coast of India within 24 hours. The cyclone will then weaken significantly as it transists across southern India. Current limited model guidance suggests that a weakened low level circulation center will track into the Arabian sea, though this scenario seems less likely given this forecast track duration overland.



Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone Warning #1 (2100z 25NOV)
==========================================
At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone SIX (NONAME) has sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is located 245 NM east of Cochrin, India and is reported as moving north-northwest at 3 knots. Over the past 6 hours, recent animated multispectral satellite imagery and a 1415z SSMIS microwave image show deep convection wrapping into a well-defined low level circulation center, especially within the northern semi-circle. The initial intensity is 40 knots which is consistent with dvorak intensity estimates from PGTW and KNES. The satellite presenation,and topographical influences. Upper level dynamics are favorable for continued intensification with excellent radial outflow and low vertical wind shear, however continued land interaction will prevent significant intensification prior to making landfall. The cyclone is forecast to track slowly northwest trough the Palk strait and will make landfall with eastern coast of India within 24 hours. The cyclone will then weaken significantly as it transists across southern India. Current limited model guidance suggests that a weakened low level circulation center will track into the Arabian sea, though this scenario seems less likely given this forecast track duration overland.





that has to be a Hurricane.
GFDL still taking 96L to hurricane status, and LBAR takes it to Haiti O_O. Also, look at the water north of Australia, that would take a small storm to a major hurricane quite quickly, as the water is 35C (96F). There's TC six near India, and that is about to make landfall and could cause flooding. By the way, Santa Catarina, the same state in Brazil where Cyclone Catarina struck in 2004, is getting severe flooding, and 70 people have died. Also, re comment 356, Nargis may easily be more than 7th deadliest, estimates are that around 300,000 may have died. The Irrawaddy Delta became so flooded that communities with former populations above 100,000 may be permanently underwater, meaning that future maps may need to be modified. As for us in S. Ontario, GFS gives us about 23 cm (9 in) of snow by December 6. Some places in SW Ontario, such as Arkona, have seen over a metre of snow! Also, (on a lighter note) if you're into astronomy, there's a triple-conjunction of Jupiter, Venus, and the cresent moon, neatly placed in a tight triangle, around the evening of December 1. If you live in Europe, then the trio will be the closest, and if you have a telescope you may be able to watch the occultation of Venus by the moon (the moon covers Venus) in the daytime.
We're talking about 96L right?

The worst Hurricane Seasons ever in my Opinions.
(the first two I can believe we all can agree.)
2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season
2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season
2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season
1999 Atlantic Hurricane Season
2003 Atlantic Hurricane Season

If I were to tell myself in 2007 how horrific this year would have been I wouldn't have believed it. 52 Billion dollars in damage, and the third most costly storm ever to hit the United states. 6 times in a row America was hit by a Tropical Cyclone. And we ended up with a Hyperactive season, 16 named storms.
evenin'

yo rob
He who rakes last,rakes least...lol
sort of looks like it but the center is just north of Sri Lanka and east of Tamil Nadu over the Bay of Bengal still no overland India yet.
2009 is going to be so lame compared to this year
post 370. Sez who ??


Quoting CybrTeddy:

The worst Hurricane Seasons ever in my Opinions.
(the first two I can believe we all can agree.)
2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season
2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season
2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season
1999 Atlantic Hurricane Season
2003 Atlantic Hurricane Season

If I were to tell myself in 2007 how horrific this year would have been I wouldn't have believed it. 52 Billion dollars in damage, and the third most costly storm ever to hit the United states. 6 times in a row America was hit by a Tropical Cyclone. And we ended up with a Hyperactive season, 16 named storms.


Nope, I can't.

2005 is probably the worst. 2008 being the 2nd worst? Not in my opinion.

I don't believe the worst 5 seasons have come in the last 10 years. Yeah, they caused more damage in terms of money... but did they wreck more homes? No. Did they kill more people? No.
Did they end more livelihoods? No.



post 371
did you think 2006 was exciting after 05?
Quoting all4hurricanes:
2009 is going to be so lame compared to this year
lets wait till it becomes 09 before we write it off
Quoting all4hurricanes:
2009 is going to be so lame compared to this year


Lame...?

It's going to be La Nina. Could be as bad as this year. And to be frank, I'm sure the places that have been hit would take a 'lame' year.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
lets wait till it becomes 09 before we write it off


You're right.

Who knows what will happen?
We could have 10 named storms, or 14 named storms, or 20 named storms.
We could have a 3 billion dollar damage total, 3 million dollar damage total, 300 billion (exaggerating a bit) dollar damage total.

Anything is possible.
maybe worst
Atlantic hurricane seasons on record!

2006- 5 hurricanes!!
2007- 6 hurricanes!! Not supposed to get 15 tropical storms in 2007! but we did !!!!

So what!!!
Sheph, the Sandhill Crane. They dont come this far. They winer in Mexico.
I think it was you asking......
2008 was a bad yr but it could of been worse. ike needed another day over water fay could of been a hurricane on and on next yr i dont have a clue.
370
How many volcano eruptions figure in to your equation ?
Sheph. 381. Wha ??
Your probably right 09 could be as bad as 08 but they were saying the same thing about 06
380 every season could have been worse, 2005 could have been much worse if Katrina hit New Orleans dead on as a 5 but I assure you it can always get worse
A couple of new pics in the comments section of my blog if you care to look...
Will return for the night shift, hope everyone has a safe and pleasant evening.
Quoting pottery:
Sheph, the Sandhill Crane. They dont come this far. They winer in Mexico.
I think it was you asking......
thanx pot...yeah that was me. Last couple of years I was fortunate enough to be assigned to Lauderdale and spent the winters fishing in the Everglades when the mosquitos were low(low not nonexistent) and there were quite a few sand hills that stayed with me for the season. They were keen to alert me to movements in the water, kinda like turkeys alerting a hunter to a deer walking out.
map of all storms 2008 season so far
382 pot

Modified comment with post reference to 370
Ah, Ok Sheph.
Funny how a small thing, omitted, can throw me off...........
387 keeper
What an oddball Fay was.
The troughs were perfect for her to do that.
we had a few oddballs shep to say the least
389 pot
LOL...did that just for you Pot
Thought I'd make your elbow slide off the desk and snap you awake just for poops and grins.
Here's a rum to you...lol
LOL Sheph.
I drink to that as well...
96L is persistent for over a week now, even if the odds are stacked against it developing, its one of the most persistent areas of disturbed weather i ever seen.
Yeah keeper, Omar was a goofball for sure. A textbook study in Washahari'(sic) effect and nebulous meander.
I was watching storm session from the weather channel and Dr. Lyons said that Fay, Gustav, Hanna and Ike will likely be retired.

Dolly, Omar and Paloma were said to be less likely retired. But Dr. Lyons also said it's the WMO's decision.
Yep, a strange year really. And only 2 CV storms. Then 2 in the central Atl. Or would those be considered CV as well ?
does anything that ohio will have alot of snow.
Thats true, Stormpetrol. And it has not moved at all in all that time.
I think Omar did a long stopover north of Curacao as well. Dont remember how long for, but a week stationary comes to mind.
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:
I was watching storm session from the weather channel and Dr. Lyons said that Fay, Gustav, Hanna and Ike will likely be retired.

Dolly, Omar and Paloma were said to be less likely retired. But Dr. Lyons also said it's the WMO's decision.


He could be right, but I don't think Fay should. The other 3, okay.
i think that ike will not hannah
Quoting Cotillion:


He could be right, but I don't think Fay should. The other 3, okay.


They had a big debate on whether or not Fay would.

The reason why Dr. Lyons picked it was because it caused over 1 billion $ in damage and 36+ deaths.
398 "ladiesman"???
Sure...flip a coin.
402
Floridians want that "witch" retired. As in adios, don't call us ,we'll call you. LOL
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:


They had a big debate on whether or not Fay would.

The reason why Dr. Lyons picked it was because it caused over 1 billion $ in damage and 36+ deaths.


I've not read any reports saying it caused that much damage. Could you direct me to any?
As we were touching 2009, here's a previous entry of mine to do with it:

Yup, it's a looong time away. We've got Thanksgiving and Christmas to go through yet. Even this season isn't officially done and dusted.

However, I hope you'll forgive me for presenting the first taste of what is to come. CSU usually presents its long-term prediction in the early part of December. Why, I've no idea. What will they say?

This year they predicted 13-7-3, and while it wasn't as close as the April revision, it wasn't too bad. (16-8-5.)

2007 their initial shot was the closest they ever got. 14-7-3. Actual activity was 15-6-2. Not bad, considering they were 7-8 months behind the season's start. 'Course, it just got more out from there.

Perhaps that is making up for badly getting 06 wrong, with 17-9-5... ending up with 10-5-2. Never mind.

So, what will they say this time?

A lot of December's forecast appears to be based on what is to come in terms of ENSO (A major factor in tropical activity) and the previous season. Yes, there are other things involved, but they are more refined come April. Current forecasts seem to show a strengthening of La Nina, to keep neutrality or even to a weak La Nina. Coming off this season, I would not be surprised to see a 'safe bet' 15-8-4 mooted. (The 95-07 average.)

So, expect a re-run? Perhaps not. History tells us that no two seasons are the same. So, don't take this next comparison too literally, but it's interesting regardless.

Let's look at the bastion of the current AMO, 2005. Compare it to the previous active phase of the oscillation's most active season, 1933. What do we see?

Well, the season before 1933, like 05, was deadly. While Florida wasn't adorned with Perfume de Huracan like it was in 04, Cuba and the Bahamas amongst others were hit hard. Texas also got its fair share.

Continuing with this line of inquiry, the following year. 2006 was 'surprisingly' inactive (Though El Nino has a lot to do with that.), how about 1934? Lo and behold, was not much to right home about either. While it did have 11 storms, no majors to speak of. 1935 (2007 in another dimension) has the Labor Day Hurricane, and a couple of other majors. Could that have been the Felix or Dean of the year? Although the era of pre-satellite comes with a warning of 'Expect at least 2 more storms', it wasn't particularly active, whereas 2007 had 15 storms. Though most stayed relatively weak.

1936? Well, this is the most compelling of all. 16 storms were mentioned (Possibly more), the exact same as this year. However, this season was far more intense, with 4 extra majors.

1937? Just 9 storms, no major. Though the links are tenuous, it makes for an interesting read. However, the previous '2005' to 1933, 1887, doesn't fit the pattern so well. 1886 was pretty intense (Including that Indianola Hurricane...), 1888 wasn't too bad... but 1889/1890 don't fit the pattern at all.

Any names grab you for 2009?

Ana
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Erika
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Joaquin
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda

As CybrTeddy has pointed out, this decade seems to be the time of the I's... Isabel, Isidore, Ivan, Iris have been retired this decade alone, with Ike set to join them. Will Ida be one of these, or will it pass harmlessly?

What do you think may occur?
A bill and a billy this 2009 season and maybe a fred and freddy.

Bill - Atlantic
Billy - Australia

Fred - Atlantic
Freddy - Australia
Quoting stormpetrol:
96L is persistent for over a week now, even if the odds are stacked against it developing, its one of the most persistent areas of disturbed weather i ever seen.
that particular area been hot for a while since like mid oct
I think the purpose of retiring is so that
A people don't panic when the name jogs memories
B so that historical or record breaking storms are not confused (ie if there was another Katrina that hit New Orleans in 2035 that would get very confusing )
Hurricane Ivan still haunts me, I personally thinks its probably one the most underrated hurricanes in terms of power and destruction,then again I experienced its wrath first hand so in that respect I would be bias.
406

danny
grace
ida
nicolas
sam
Quoting CybrTeddy:

The worst Hurricane Seasons ever in my Opinions.
(the first two I can believe we all can agree.)
2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season
2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season
2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season
1999 Atlantic Hurricane Season
2003 Atlantic Hurricane Season

If I were to tell myself in 2007 how horrific this year would have been I wouldn't have believed it. 52 Billion dollars in damage, and the third most costly storm ever to hit the United states. 6 times in a row America was hit by a Tropical Cyclone. And we ended up with a Hyperactive season, 16 named storms.


In my opinion, this list is way off...especially if it is based off of every year in recorded history. The only year I can agree with is 2005. But, why do you have 2003 and 1999 but not 1992, 1950, or even 1933?

Also, I don't think this year is as bad as 2004, as the main storms of that year (Charley, Ivan, Frances, Jeanne) caused much more destruction/deaths of people in the caribbean and the United States than this year without a doubt.
...peeks into room

What Hurricane season is the worst is a very subjective thing...I would say 2004 since that is the only one that has ever had a significant effect on me and it also had a major effect on my entire state...TX or LA would probably disagree...Folks in Miami area that experienced Andrew would have a different opinion...

410. stormpetrol- I understand completely, and am sure folks in the Panhandle would agree.


slips back out...
We got hit by Isabel and I will have my eye on Ida, Isabel surprised us but her daughter won't!
Hmm. At 7pm, the temperature here was -1C.

Now it's 7C at near midnight.

How weird.
Quoting Cotillion:
Hmm. At 7pm, the temperature here was -1C.

Now it's 7C at near midnight.

How weird.

wow that is wierd did you really stay up till midnight just to find that out lol
Quoting all4hurricanes:

wow that is wierd did you really stay up till midnight just to find that out lol


Just a casual observation.

Anyway, have a good night all. -signing off-.
406 Cot
Having lived 58 years on the "Florida dartboard" and seeing science evolve first hand, I have zero interest or confidence in preseason forecasts. LOL...Don't get me wrong, I love your passion...LOL... "BUT", I remember Physics 101 and the characteristics of "meander". Dr Masters (a conservative steward) covered the shortcomings of short term dynamics quite well. It's the meander factor that prompts the flip of a coin. I see these predictions as well meaning , but it has a bit of a face of oneupmanship to me.
Just my two cents, but I think Omar should be retired for the interplay, at one brief moment, of three internal COVs that kept popping up and jockying for dominance and for the nebulous meander. Dollar value doesn't have to be the only factor.
Kinda odd ESPI moving in the same direction as ENSO instead of like a reflection of it on this graph. Looking at climo, shouldn't keep it up much longer.
***removed for judgement's sake***
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