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Winter forecast, part II: NOAA's predicts a warm winter for the Central U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:51 PM GMT on November 21, 2008

Let's follow up on yesterday's discussion about the long range forecast for the coming United States winter. Those of you outside the U.S. will probably be more interested in what the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction has to say for your country, and I encourage you to check out their excellent web site for their seasonal forecasts.

The official National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 90-day forecast for the upcoming winter, issued on November 20 by their Climate Prediction Center (CPC), calls for above average temperatures across the Central U.S. and Alaska. The remainder of the country has equal chances of above or below average temperatures. A dryer than average winter is expected over much of the Southern U.S., including the drought-stricken Southeast U.S.


Figure 1. Temperature forecast for the upcoming winter--December, January, and February 2009--made by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. No areas of the country ar forecast to have an above-average chance of being colder than normal, but the Central U.S. has up to a 50% chance of having above-average temperatures.

How are the NOAA winter forecasts made?
NOAA uses several tools to make their forecasts. One key tool is their Climate Forecast System (CFS) model. This model includes a version of the GFS forecast model that we use for everyday weather and hurricane track forecasts. The CFS model also includes an ocean model that interacts with the atmospheric model. These models solve mathematical equations of fluid flow using a supercomputer for the entire globe, on a 100-km grid. NOAA also uses statistical models, which look at past winters and see how they depended on quantities such as sea surface temperature anomalies. Temperature trends are important, too--if it has been warmer than average the last ten years, it's a good idea to forecast a warmer than average winter.


Figure 2. Skill of the official 90-day forecasts issued 0.5 months in advance by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Note that the average skill over the past ten years is not very high (9 on a scale of 0 to 100), and has remained flat, indicating that our skill in making long-range forecasts has not improved.

How good are the NOAA winter forecasts?
NOAA rates its forecasts using the Heidke skill score, which is a measure of how well a forecast did relative to a randomly selected forecast. A score of 0 means that the forecast did no better than what would be expected by chance. A score of 100 depicts a "perfect" forecast, and a score of -50 depicts the "worst possible" forecast. For 90-day temperature forecasts issued 0.5 months in advance, NOAA has averaged a 9 out of 100 on the Heidke scale since 1995 (Figure 2). So, while there is some skill in forecasting what winter temperatures will be like, this skill is not much better than flipping a coin. Depressingly, Heidke skill scores for three-month precipitation forecasts are even worse, averaging just a one on a scale of 1 to 100 over the past 15 years.

Let's look at some examples. Last's year's winter temperature forecast issued in mid-November did poorly (Figure 3), failing to forecast that the U.S. would have equal areas with both above and below average temperatures. The 90-day forecast done in mid-November of 2005 for the winter of 2005-2006 was awesome, with a Heidke skill score of 45. However, the 90-day forecast done in mid-November of 2006 for the winter of 2006-2007 had virtually no skill, with a Heidke skill score of one.



Figure 3. Temperature forecast for Dec 2007-Feb 2008 issued by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center on November 15, 2007 (top). They predicted Equal Chances (EC) of either above or below-average temperatures for the Northwestern U.S. (white colored areas), and a 30-60% chance of above average temperatures over most of the remainder of the country. In reality, the U.S. experienced an average winter, with approximately equal areas of the country receiving above and below average temperatures (bottom). Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Why do seasonal forecasts do so poorly? Primarily, it's because the long-term weather patterns are chaotic and fundamentally unpredictable. To a lesser degree, we are limited by our imperfect physical understanding of what controls the climate, and our imperfect computer models we use to simulate the climate. As computer power continues to increase and our models include better representations of the weather and climate at finer grid sizes, I anticipate that seasonal forecasts will improve. However, given that long-range forecasts have not improved since 1995 despite a large increase in computer power, I doubt that this improvement will be more than 10-20% over the next thirty years.

Seasonal forecast models vs. climate models
A common complaint one hears about global warming predictions made by climate models is, "How can we trust the predictions of these climate modes, when they so such a lousy job with seasonal forecasts?" It's a good question, and there is no doubt that seasonal forecasts have pretty marginal skill. However, there is a fundamental difference between making a seasonal forecast and making a 100-year climate forecast. A seasonal or a short-term weather forecast is what mathematicians call an "initial value" problem. One starts with a set of initial meteorological and oceanographic values that specify the initial state of the planet's weather, then solve the equations of fluid flow to arrive at the state of the atmosphere a few days, weeks, or months into the future. This forecast is highly sensitive to any imperfections one has in the initial conditions. Since there are large regions of the atmosphere and ocean we don't sample, it's guaranteed that the prediction will suffer significantly from imperfect initial conditions. Furthermore, the chaotic and turbulent nature of the atmosphere leads to many "bumps" in the weather pattern over time scales of days, weeks, and months. The nature of turbulence makes it impossible to accurately forecast these "bumps" that are superimposed on the mean state of the climate.

A 100-year climate forecast, on the other hand, is what mathematicians call a "boundary value" problem. Given an initial and final set of factors (called "forcings") that influence the climate, one runs a climate model 100 years into the future. The final state of the climate will depend on the strength of the forcings supplied. This type of model is not very sensitive to initial conditions, and is not trying to forecast the "bumps" of chaotic, turbulent atmospheric motion superimposed on the mean climate. Rather, one is trying to forecast the mean climate. As computer power increases and our physical understanding of how the climate works grows, these type of models will continue to significantly improve. While climate models do fail to properly simulate important aspects of our past climate, such as the Arctic warming of the 1930s, and the observed 0.1°C global temperature increase that occurs at the peak of the 11-year solar sunspot cycle, they have been very successful at simulating things like the global cooling triggered by the 1992 Mt. Pinatubo eruption, and the observed pattern of greatest global warming in the Arctic. I believe that climate models are already significantly more reliable than seasonal forecast models, and should continue to improve steadily in coming years.

Support the Portlight Christmas for Gulf Coast Kids Honor Walk
Saturday is the portlight.org Christmas for Gulf Coast Kids Honor Walk. This is a fundraiser to buy gifts for the kids along the Gulf Coast who might not have much in their stockings this year because of the ravages of Hurricane Ike. Our own StormJunkie will be walking up the Arthur Ravenel Jr. Bridge in Charleston, SC, and will be taking his webcam along. Tune in to the webcam site at 2:30 pm EST to follow the walk, and participate in a live chat. Sponsorships of any amount, small or large, are appreciated! The cam will go active about an hour before the walk. It should be a cold but beautiful day.

Jeff Masters

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

wpb i may not see 67 again for quite sometime
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Eric
by Eric

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Part concert, part variety show and part party, the event will bring to life many of the amazing videos and talent that YouTube viewers have already made popular.

A global event that will feature a live broadcast from San Francisco and Tokyo.


GOM IR Loop Link

GOES WV Loop of Tropical Basin Link

More GOES Atmospheric Products Link



Very hard to believe !!!!

No freeze in Naples, Florida since January 5, 2001 !!!

That's almost 8 years !!!

wunderground.com said!
as of 930pm 17.2f chill 9f already down 2 degrees passed the forecasted low for tonight they say 19 but its already 17.2
your 10-day forcast 15 brings you down to 54 Thanksgiving morning with a high of 72
I couldn't even imagine that Keeper..are your heating bills outrageous up there?
high of 40 for me in Berrien Srings, MI on Thanksgiving. HOW HOT! lol
freeze mean 32 degress or less!
Quoting Cotillion:
By the way guys, on the SST map, anyone else noticed the Northern Australian anomaly?

It goes from around 30C waters to about 14...


I saw that too, but I think they're over 32-33 C instead and are really high.b

green?!?
whats that mean go?
but the important part is that NHC recognized it
Maybe its less than a 0% chance
wpb actually its about 30,000 a month to heat the building iam a high rise superintendent 10 floors 140 apartments boiler heat 6 gas fire burners heat the building 2 gas fire burners make the domestic hot water temp set on building heat at 120f supply return comes back at about 85f with about 24 psi pressure that keeps the inside temps at about 75 76 all winter inside
think they are drinking their egg nog a little to soon!
I realized green is the opposite of red and the scale is yellow to red so green is the low end of the scale in another dimension
Halftime:
Okla 42
Texas Tech 7
All I cared about was MSU and MU. Both lost! Good for me! LOL
Quoting all4hurricanes:

green?!?
whats that mean go?
but the important part is that NHC recognized it
Maybe its less than a 0% chance


Quoting all4hurricanes:
I realized green is the opposite of red and the scale is yellow to red so green is the low end of the scale in another dimension


LOL
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
think they are drinking their egg nog a little to soon!


mmmmmmmm eggnog
well since its that time of year I suppose when they "fix" it, the circle will be red and green

LOL!
Ummm...Ahhhhhhh...


520. JRRP
Quoting all4hurricanes:

green?!?
whats that mean go?
but the important part is that NHC recognized it
Maybe its less than a 0% chance

green means 99% i think
wow
I looks for an online Ouija board and all they did was connect me to dead people it told me nothing about other storms of 2008 lol
maybe they will make it red and white..candy cane colored!
pretty cool video..

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
maybe they will make it red and white..candy cane colored!


mmmmmmmmmm candycane

LOL

PS it came from OuTeR SpAcE!!!!
ah man they fixed it to yellow now

its yellow on Post 510 too

too bad I liked the new green color

well at least I saved a picture of it :)
maybe the aliens were delivering candy cane flavored egg nog!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
maybe the aliens were delivering candy cane flavored egg nog!


That's thinking like the NHC at this time of the year

LOL

(don't bash me guys I'm clearly J/K)
Maybe it was a.....COOKBOOK!!!...(have to be a Twilight Zone fan to get it)...
Come back and check every 10 days! lol

2008 Atlantic hurricane season:

Nov. 01-10: Paloma!
Nov. 11-20: ---

Rene will be next or not ??
Nov. 21-30: ?
Dec. 01-10: ?
Dec. 11-20: ?
Dec. 21-31: ?
no..no...no...no..and no...jmho...done for the season
Quoting 15hurricanes:
2008 Atlantic hurricane season:

Nov. 01-10: Paloma!
Nov. 11-20: ---

Rene will be next or not ??
Nov. 21-30: ?
Dec. 01-10: ?
Dec. 11-20: ?
Dec. 21-31: ?


Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
no..no...no...no..and no...jmho...done for the season


LOL ya I don't wanna eat another crow
Quoting beell:


Aw, c'mon. Wish. Based on the over-abundant preponderance of querulous FL-based posts regarding recent anamolous sensible weather,...

You be da only one!


I lived somewhere where it snowed I probably would wish for snow. I post about Florida because I live in Florida lol. You're bombastic writing doesn't make it any harder to understand what you are saying lol.

You're humor is a little on the dry side.
quick everyone think of a clever thing to say when Rene forms before it is too late!
534. beell
You're humor is a little on the dry side.

And dusty too! I'll work on it some.
LOL
I can't wait till tomorrow we could have unforeseen Rene in a week
very late storms are so great
Good night
Anyone watch Twister? Pretty cool movie, it was just on TNT.
Atlantic hurricanes typically form between early June and late November, although some have formed before or after that period. By MSNBC.com

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11927624
Query, if someone could answer this via WU mail I would appreciate it?

Has anyone been to the Dominican on Vacation.. and if so, where and what did they think? I am looking at going on a last minute vacation down there.. or somewhere warm.

How bad was the Dominican area hurt by the Hurricanes this year?I know they were hit by few of the TD's.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Query, if someone could answer this via WU mail I would appreciate it?

Has anyone been to the Dominican on Vacation.. and if so, where and what did they think? I am looking at going on a last minute vacation down there.. or somewhere warm.

How bad was the Dominican area hurt by the Hurricanes this year?I know they were hit by few of the TD's.


They were hit by Gustav-(90mph) Hanna-(outer rain bands) Kyle-(Heavy flooding) and Fay-(40mph)....I dont know if they repaired most of the damage.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


They were hit by Gustav-(90mph) Hanna-(outer rain bands) Kyle-(Heavy flooding) and Fay-(40mph)....I dont know if they repaired most of the damage.


Its really hard to find some place to go on such short notice. A lot of Mexico is already booked.
Brisbane Storm images Link
Story on the worst hit street in Brisbane Link
Cheers AussieStorm
Widespread heavy snow warnings in place here...

Already some here this morning. Though, it's bucketing sleet right now.
Good Morning All... Its been Snowing in England.. and I have 2 movies of the snow... So here you go:




Good Morning, Sipping some coffee, enjoying my quiet sleeping house, and getting ready to face the cold (I know this is relative) for a Sunday morning run
ipswich -- thanks for the morning's video's -- so lovely to look at, but not a comfortable reality for me!! I wish I could (my body) enjoy it the change.....but being cold just hurts and I get more tired trying to keep my inner furnace going
Amazing, it's reached low 40s here...
Chickens are causing making all kinds of noises this morning -- they handle the cool weather (cold) better then me -- though they do go through feed far more quickly.

Polo horses are thriving in this weather. I love their woolly winter coats & well most people clip for the look, because the herd we care for is outside 24/7 they keep their coats. It's such a great feeling to warm your hands on their bodies after they've warmed up from a work out
Cot -- do YOU sleep? What time on your island
Quoting surfmom:
Cot -- do YOU sleep? What time on your island


...Link

:)

Though seriously, yeah, just haven't being sleeping too well lately.

It's just past midday here.
video is a hoot ! Spouse just woke.... got to pour him coffee & get out running --gather up Dave the Cat & take a Nap!! Sleep is important -- specially w/school and all..... See you later Cot : )
Quoting Orcasystems:
Query, if someone could answer this via WU mail I would appreciate it?

Has anyone been to the Dominican on Vacation.. and if so, where and what did they think? I am looking at going on a last minute vacation down there.. or somewhere warm.

How bad was the Dominican area hurt by the Hurricanes this year?I know they were hit by few of the TD's.

Hanna hit Haiti hard but I think Dominican dodged some bullets
Quoting surfmom:
ipswich -- thanks for the morning's video's -- so lovely to look at, but not a comfortable reality for me!! I wish I could (my body) enjoy it the change.....but being cold just hurts and I get more tired trying to keep my inner furnace going


Its ok.. NO SNOW LEFT )=
Quoting all4hurricanes:

Hanna hit Haiti hard but I think Dominican dodged some bullets

Yeah. As for vacating down there, they have everything from an inexpensive vacation in a lot of places, to Casa del Campo, in La Romana, which is as elite a place as one can find in the world. :)
gm all
Quoting all4hurricanes:

Hanna hit Haiti hard but I think Dominican dodged some bullets


Just got back from Puerto Plata. Some beaches were severely damaged but most not. There was no major infrastructure damage though considering how they build, is is somewhat hard to tell.
Morning all!

This is early for me on a Sunday! will give the sun an hour or two to get to work before jumping in the playboats and taking advantage of the dip in fuel prices. One guy I met yesterday has one of the new mercury 150's on a 16 ft checkmate. Runs 65 mph before it gets to squirrely but get this...9 mpg. Had all us big block boys cryin at the gas pumps. I don't think my little jon-boat even gets that kind of fuel economy!

Shep, I was thinking the same thing about Trinidad...Orca needs to talk to Pottery tonite.
I used to have a 16 foot Checkmate with a 135 Merc...back in the 70's.

Most fun boat I've ever owned.
Even with that motor and propped right it made 63mph.
we weren't that concerned about fuel economy back then...LOL

Morning everyone......here are the latest model run for the GFS for next Sunday as i said a Winter Storm would be........

Here is the GFS..


557. vortfix
HeHe, I had one too and loved it. Ditto the fuel economy thing...ah the good ole days!

You got a makeover (avatar) almost didn't recognize you!
Had a 22ft stratos bass boat with 2 grow men in it would go 85mph .....freaking scary.....
mornon rob
Removed comment, better to take to mail.

New outboards are the ticket. I run Evindude ETEC's on all my boats. Can't beat the "get home safe" system. On synthetic oil they'll run 8 hrs with and oil failure. Engine shuts back to 1250 rpm for any problem. Even if it over heats. Too much heat and they shut off entirely and after it cools you fire her back up and run a bit more. Dealer doesn't want to see them for 3 years for tune up.
Got a 26Ft Triton now.......much better for the GOM.

I like fast, scary...not so much! I've also reached the point in my life that I know I'm not 10ft tall and bullet proof...Winds should be down a few mph today and temps up a few degrees will be more fun, yesterday was pretty choppy on the big lakes.
Quoting RobDaHood:
I like fast, scary...not so much! I've also reached the point in my life that I know I'm not 10ft tall and bullet proof...Winds should be down a few mph today and temps up a few degrees will be more fun, yesterday was pretty choppy on the big lakes.


Today and Tomorrow.....SW winds in Tampa SWEET Wind for off shore......the GOM will be like GLASS...
I like fast, scary...not so much! I've also reached the point in my life that I know I'm not 10ft tall and bullet proof...

Hahaha....I finally figured that out too.
I protested for many years though.
My doctor told me a few years ago to either sell my jet skis or don't bother him anymore!
Argh.
Shep - yeah, the tech advances in modern outboards is amazing, and I agree the limp home factor very important.

TS - good boat for your area...Nice catch ya got there too.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Today and Tomorrow.....SW winds in Tampa SWEET Wind for off shore......the GOM will be like GLASS...


Made a mistake i meant SE winds....LOL....sorry....when the wind is out of the SE Florida blocks off the winds....and the lite Southerly breeze is sweet...
2 weeks ago brother caught a 112lb Drum....OMG was that a fight.......LOL
nw wind in e cent fl hoping that stuff gets out of the carib. soon
TS - will be doing the Tampa/GOM in December. One of my old bandmates is the bass player in the house band at Sheppards on clearwater beach. We've been trying to get together and fish for a couple months but schedules and storms keep interferring...

Vort - hehe, these cold fronts never really hurt much until this year...back, shoulders, elbows...I'm becoming my own barometer. LOL
i have been to dominican republic. hard to beat costa rica though armed guards are needed in both areas to watch the valuables while sleeping
Anyone with friends on the kingfish tour?
My nepwhew bailed out of Bilouxi and came home.
6 to 8 foot seas, freezing temps. Most packed up and called it a day.
Tried to get him to drag over to Lake Ponchartrain and look for them there, but he said he's "all done"....
Here is my Daughter on ours......only thing i could find to get the kids to still have fun with dad.......have a 22, 20, girls, and 17yr old son..really hard to find something that everyone enjoyed and the Jet Ski is it...lol

562 Tampa
Perfect boat for your area. A fishin' machine.



*****ORCA*****mail****
Quoting theshepherd:
Anyone with friends on the kingfish tour?
My nepwhew bailed out of Bilouxi and came home.
6 to 8 foot seas, freezing temps. Most packed up and called it a day.
Tried to get him to drag over to Lake Ponchartrain and look for them there, but he said he's "all done"....

I know two down there. At the end of the first day one was in first and a close neighbor was in fourth. These Carolina men are tough!!!!
Quoting theshepherd:
562 Tampa
Perfect boat for your area. A fishin' machine.



*****ORCA*****mail****


Its just big enough and Small enough to know you better understand weather and how fast in can turn in the GOM in the Summer months....LOL
Quoting RobDaHood:
TS - will be doing the Tampa/GOM in December. One of my old bandmates is the bass player in the house band at Sheppards on clearwater beach. We've been trying to get together and fish for a couple months but schedules and storms keep interferring...

Vort - hehe, these cold fronts never really hurt much until this year...back, shoulders, elbows...I'm becoming my own barometer. LOL


Ate there many times.......great atmosphere..:)...and the food is dam good also...lol..
Morning everyone..
Jr and I West-casting on Lake Pontchartrain pre-K.

576 Tampa
You got that right !!!
If you can see the squall line on the horizon, then you've waited too long...lol
578. Patrap 9:26 AM EST on November 23, 2008
Morning everyone..
Jr and I West-casting on Lake Pontchartrain pre-K.


Pat....those are the things with our children that they will always remember......its amazing the bonding that happens when doing things like that....NOT ENOUGH PARENTS DO THOSE THINGS WITH KIDS.....GREAT PARENTING PAT........not enough of that going around is the problem in this world..
Quoting TampaSpin:


Ate there many times.......great atmosphere..:)...and the food is dam good also...lol..


Yep, he plays out on the patio, usually afternoon and early evenings. I love places that you can get to by boat...gets pretty congested there sometimes.
Yeah,,tyvm Tampa...hes bout twice as tall ,that Boy.

He Can eat a whole Sack of Crawfish too...LOL
Ditto MissNadia
I'll bow out to "them Carolina yankees" when the temp drops...LOL...Don't send the boys after me ;>)

Quoting Patrap:
Yeah,,tyvm Tampa...hes bout twice as tall ,that Boy.

He Can eat a whole Sack of Crawfish too...LOL


OH hell yes....i love Crawfish....my kids including the girls would put a place out of business eating Crawfish....some people sqinch at the thought not my southern girls....LOL
Does this look like faces that would scarf down stacks of Crawfish.......LMAO.....

Then you'll have to cruise thru here in the Spring..
We can do it right..

Daugther is a High School Senior ..she can dig in with the Best too.

Beautiful Girls with Happy Smiles there.
oops...out of coffee...gotta make a store run before MissNadia can respond lol

Yo, pat
How's the kingfish bite on the lake???
Time for me to hit the shower, get dressed, and go play...Hope you all have a great Sunday!

Back later
Quoting Patrap:
Then you'll have to cruise thru here in the Spring..
We can do it right..

Daugther is a High School Senior ..she can dig in with the Best too.


My friend your doing thing the right way...be proud of what you have accomplished with your kids....I know i am....my girls can tell there father anything....and i love it...
I dont go near that Lake till March Now,..as in it fishing.


Brrrrrrrr...
N Winds can ruin ya,...
Good morning!
Ya right on that one Tampa.

Every child should have the opportunities our's have.

Have a good Day. Im out to move some furniture with some folks.
Have to get cranking.

So regarding the stories on predictions:

Well, if NOAA and the Wolly Bears are about even on the predictions, I think the Wolly Bears are at least more entertaining. The racing is especially appealing to me...

My local concern is that we have had a huge production of mast--almost dangerous to go walking for rolling about on acorns. This is great for the bears and the dear (and the coyotes and the raccoons and the squirrels, etc). Some say this is a prediction of a harsh winter, others are saying it's a result of the drought. Any research on the correlation of mast production and weather patterns?

I know we're colder than normal now, and that has usually meant we warm up in December. Chaos rules, and all we can hope for is rain around here.
For all you Fathers with girls......incredible song......

Young child feared drowned, as storms wreak havoc



FOUR-YEAR OLD CHILD swimming in a Central Queensland water hole was swept away yesterday when a flooded dam ruptured, spilling 6000 megalitres of water.

The dam burst following a weekend of unseasonal weather that battered eastern Australia. Snow fell, gales lashed the coast, knocking down trees and power lines, and crops were extensively damaged in a bout of unseasonal weather that brought an icy chill to eastern Australia.

Orange was expected to be declared a natural disaster zone after snowfalls obliterated millions of dollars' worth of hail netting and uprooted orchards, while roads between Bathurst and Oberon were closed as 10 centimetres of snow fell around the Blue Mountains.

Rockhampton police said rescuers and a helicopter were searching for a girl, aged three or four, who was washed away when an inflatable rubber bladder on the Bedford Weir, near Blackwater, burst.

"Apparently there is a swimming hole below the weir wall for the public, which is quite popular on a hot day," said Sergeant Noel Melrose.

No other information about the missing child has been released at this stage.

A spokesman for the NSW Bureau of Meteorology said the chilly spell was caused by cold air, originating from Antarctica, moving up the NSW coast. A severe weather warning was issued for the NSW coast south from Wooli, near Grafton, to Gabo Island, with winds of 65 kmh, and gusts of up to 90 kmh predicted last night.

More than 1000 homes across the Illawarra and Blue Mountains were left without power on Saturday as gale-force winds uprooted trees and sent branches crashing into electricity lines.

In Sydney the temperature hovered about 15 degrees for most of the day - compared with the monthly average of 20 - the result of an intense low-pressure system.

Gale-force winds were most severe in the western suburbs, where the State Emergency Service responded to 380 calls for help.

Tim Hall, a fruit farmer near Orange, said his property had more than $300,000 in damage caused by more than 10 centimetres of snow and strong winds that flattened dozens of fruit trees. He said he had never seen anything like it, and neither had his neighbours.

Officers from the Department of Primary Industries will view the damage during the week to assess if affected property owners will be eligible for natural disaster assistance.

Morning all.

It's about 75 degrees here now, and isn't forecast to get much warmer. This is a bit cooler than average for us, more like mid-December weather. There's a crisp little breeze blowing from time to time to make u feel REALLY cold. . . . lol. However, the sun is shining most of the time, so it should be a good day.

The snow videos were cool, Ips. I also want to point out the size of the CARS in those pics . . . lol

Later! (Gone to get coffee and warm coconut bread . . .)
594. TampaSpin

Thanks man!

I'm a rocker myself, but (don't tell my mates) cross over from time to time when no one's looking. (esp. Faith Hill)
Quoting TampaSpin:
Got a 26Ft Triton now.......much better for the GOM.

Is that a shark u're pulling there, TS? Looks like a decent boat.

In the 70s my dad used to run a pair of Evinrudes. I don't know if they were as fuel efficient, but they ran pretty darn well. He doesn't do much boating now, but he swore by outboards. . . .
Quoting RobDaHood:
594. TampaSpin

Thanks man!

I'm a rocker myself, but (don't tell my mates) cross over from time to time when no one's looking. (esp. Faith Hill)


Time to counter with some awesome 70s rock then...

Link

Wow. Snow in Australia in the equivalent of May here! It's practically cyclone season on the other end of the continent!
Good Morning All!
Vort,

Thats terrible.... They should be having warm weather now! Springlike temps!
603. GBlet
Anybody have info on how Honor Walk went, I missed broadcast.
It went very well! Awesome!
Quoting GBlet:
Anybody have info on how Honor Walk went, I missed broadcast.
605. GBlet
I got stuck working, so I just hustled all of my customers. I was also very shocked by the number of people that seemed to have no idea that a hurricane had even hit. Are we really so caught up that we don't know what happens around us?
Some people walk through life in total oblivion!
Quoting GBlet:
I got stuck working, so I just hustled all of my customers. I was also very shocked by the number of people that seemed to have no idea that a hurricane had even hit. Are we really so caught up that we don't know what happens around us?
602. Beachfoxx

You just need to come a little further south...68 right now and climbing...should see mid 70s winds about 13 from north, supposed to drop off too. However, when you're not freezing you butt off up there, your area is really nice. Everythings a compromise. Doesn't really seem fair that you go directly from Hurricane season to winter with no fall though.

Have a feeling that my buddies are all nursing hangovers this am...I came home when it got dark...they were supposed to be here by 10!
603. Hey, GB! We missed you on the bridge yesterday but you were there in spirit. SJ and press have said it will be another week or so before all of the pledges are turned in so there's no total yet. From what folks have said on SJ's blog it looks like it's been very successful from a number of perspectives.

Between the trip to Atlanta earlier this week and the walk with SJ yesterday the chat room has been buzzing with activity.

I can't wait for the next WU webcam adventure!
Quoting ILwatcher:
603. Hey, GB! We missed you on the bridge yesterday but you were there in spirit. SJ and press have said it will be another week or so before all of the pledges are turned in so there's no total yet. From what folks have said on SJ's blog it looks like it's been very successful from a number of perspectives.

Between the trip to Atlanta earlier this week and the walk with SJ yesterday the chat room has been buzzing with activity.

I can't wait for the next WU webcam adventure!


I claim credit! As it coincides with the only times I've been there... ;)
610. GBlet
Thanks for info, I put the website out on our street sign this morning, so surely someone will take a chance and a look. Nothing like hustling liquor store customers, they are usually very generous!
611. GBlet
Could we get a round of double expressos for the blog please? Wish I was getting snow for Thanksgiving. Looks like holiday storm will skirt us.
Long range forecasts remind me of Beavis and Butthead goes to the fortune teller. "whaddya want Mac?-er- I am Madame ROMA!"

"I see your are not the A students...nor the B students?...The C students??

NO I don't THINK so"

"Whoa BEAVIS-she's for REAL!"
Out till later...
Anyone got a winter precip forcast for central florida? Our lake is down about 8 inches from full levels reached after Fay. Haven't had any rain to speak of in last couple months and fronts so far have been dry. Wonder if it will be as bone dry as last winter.
I don't think you'll see much of anything in the way of winter wx in FL, Rob.
Quoting RobDaHood:
Anyone got a winter precip forcast for central florida? Our lake is down about 8 inches from full levels reached after Fay. Haven't had any rain to speak of in last couple months and fronts so far have been dry. Wonder if it will be as bone dry as last winter.


Winter precip? Youre kidding right...

Dry season is in full force all across the florida peninsula.
Nice convection in the SW caribbean this morning which has been pretty persistent the last couple of days BUT land interaction and a very hostile environment will keep this area at bay.
during el nino yrs florida gets alot of rain. good luck all this work week.
Actually no, I wasn't kidding. Florida does have a dry season, but last year we had an unusually long and VERY dry one. Just wondering out loud whether everyone's boats are going to be sitting on dry ground again, and whether I will have an extra 50 feet of beach that I don't normally have.
Quoting hurricane23:


Winter precip? Youre kidding right...

Dry season is in full force all across the florida peninsula.


The last measureable precipitation at my house was on Oct. 25th(South Fort Myers).
Quoting RobDaHood:
Anyone got a winter precip forcast for central florida? Our lake is down about 8 inches from full levels reached after Fay. Haven't had any rain to speak of in last couple months and fronts so far have been dry. Wonder if it will be as bone dry as last winter.

Yeah, rob
They are calling for another dry one at least south of Okee.
Water shortages last season were a challenge for completing the Central Broward Reg Park.
Fire Dept was worrying about water pressures all season should home fires spring up in one area.
I worry about my beloved Everglades.Fires are allways there, but the low water plays the devil with fish spawn.
Hey TampaSpin thank you for all your updates this season!!!! MY girls love shrimp
2008 Atlantic hurricane season:


Rene will be next or not ??

Most people can't tell !!
Dr. Masters,

National Geographic on August, 2006:

"We're 11 years into the cycle. I can't tell you if it will last another 10 years, or thirty."

-Gerry Bell, NOAA METEOROLOGIST
Rob~ Here's the offical.

The problem with weather predicting is that it is so inaccurate because there are many causative and unpredictable factors. Last year this little town got snowbound for three days, no travel in or out. Then there was a snowstorm in May that endangered many new calves and colts. Yet this summer we only had one day of 100 deg temps, when normally we have at least two or three weeks of those. We also had seven inches of rain in a week during the last part of May, a total that has not been reached for 100 years. This caused the crops to grow hugely, yet also encouraged more wildlife weight and more grasshoppers. All of this while the NOAA predicted warmer temperatures in the first part of the year! One can almost trust the Farmer's Almanac, the locusts' singing, or the woolly bear caterpillars' forecasts more than the official reports!

What I want to know is, why are there so many official reports of 'droughts' when most of the folks in the 'afflicted' area - the ones who grow the food and raise the animals, and whose lives and livelihoods depend on the weather - are not seeing it?

These things make it hard for most people to trust the forecasters, because what they hear about global warming and trends are NOT what they see and actually experience. When there are too many anomalies, one cannot simply continue to dismiss them as mere anomalies but must recognize them as the norm, mustn't one?

All that said, thanks to the Wundergound's maps and charts, I was able to not only predict the so-called "freak" blizzard three weeks ago, while the weather stations and TV stations were saying it was not going to be that bad, but guesstimated to within a half-inch of how much snow actually stayed on the ground in our area. Power is still out in some areas after over 300 power poles were destroyed, but you won't see THAT on the Weather Channel... They can't pretend it didn't happen because it wasn't accurately predicted, though. Oh, wait; well, I guess they CAN, but that doesn't change the fact that it did...
The site name leads to be biased, but the facts are true.

Link
Human induced global warming is nothing more than a money making scam.
National Geographic on August, 2006:
"We're 11 years years into the cycle. I can't tell you if it will last another ten years, or thirsty." -Gerry Bell NOAA Meteorology.

Very very very very stupid to say!!!!!
-----------------------------------------------
YES! I understand Emanuel!!!

Tuesday, April 11, 2006:
As a result, "it's unlikely we'll ever see a quiet decade for the next 100 years in the Atlantic," said Emanuel, a professor of tropical meteotology and climate, and author of the respected 2005 hurricane text Divine Wind. "I don't think there's any evidence of anything you would call a cycle."

We still could see some calm years here and there, he said-- maybe because of a periodic El Nino, which depresses Atlantic hurricanes.
Excellent Post Dr. Masters.

Anyone who would like to discuss the upcoming storm affecting the Great Lakes please come to my Winter Weather Blog - Link
Another good link on Co2.


Link
627
Dr Master's reflected your concerns to the letter in the above writings. Hard to predict short term meanders.
If you are indeed a farmer, then none of this is new to you.
LOL and good luck with your next crop...
Quoting whatwhat1:
Another good link on Co2.


Link


Thanks, nice link.
636. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND
AREAS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...AND NICARAGUA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN

The period 1995-2008 has been the most active for Atlantic hurricanes in the historical record.

2009 ??? Wait and see what happened!

630
There are also them "what teach" and them "what do".
Good afternoon!

"What we've seen through the past few decades is the arctic sea ice cover is becoming thinner and thinner as the system warms up," Serreze said.
Serreze of (NSIDC) National Snow and Ice Data Center

By CNN
Hostile Green Takeover: The Auto Industry Faces Environmental Thuggery

Senate Floor Speech - November 20, 2008


Senator James Inhofe (R-OK) Ranking Member, Environment and Public Works Committee

Mr. President, Americans are once again being asked to foot the bill for yet another urgent bailout. In October, Congress voted for an unprecedented $700 billion bailout of Wall Street, and now much of the same alarmist rhetoric is being employed to pressure members to act quickly.

The latest bailout demand making the rounds in Washington is for the Big Three auto industry. Democrats would have you believe the proposed bailout is all about saving jobs, but, having been in Washington long enough, my instincts led me to dig deeper where I unearthed green roots hiding beneath the bailout rhetoric.

It now appears that much of what you have heard in the media about the auto bailout being about jobs has been misleading. In fact, there are usual suspects working behind the scenes to subvert the auto bailout and ultimately betray auto workers.

The facts are these:

The proposed $25 billion bailout of Detroit now appears to have been hijacked by the powerful environmental lobby.

The November 19 Wall Street Journal asks:

When is $25 billion in taxpayer cash insufficient to bail out Detroit's auto makers?Answer: When the money is a tool of Congressional industrial policy to turn GM, Ford and Chrysler into agents of the Sierra Club and other green lobbies.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the auto bailout has degenerated into a tool to make Detroit a subsidiary of the Sierra Club.


rest of the speech


The Environmental Motor Company

15Hurricanes, using the term "historical record" is meaningless. You mean since Hurricane records have been kept? - ie: a nanosecond in the greater picture? It is impossible to predict on such a slither of time and evidence - even if the green lobby will fool you into belivieving a few years worth of dubious data justify their doom theory.
Quoting whatwhat1:
Human induced global warming is nothing more than a money making scam.


Right........... and you believe anything that is shoved down your throat...




You ought to read up on the science, and I do not mean via junk science websites, which are paid for by Big Oil. For example (see the last one too):

Inhofe's 400 Global Warming Deniers Debunked
List of "Scientists" Includes Economists, Amateurs, TV Weathermen and Industry Hacks

Sen. James M. Inhofe once famously called global warming the "greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people." It's a deliciously concise phrase %u2013 so well said, in fact, that it demands repeating, because it is so sure of itself, and so wrong.

In the delirious tradition of American conspiracy theories (like that old farce, the Apollo 11 moon landing) Inhofe backs up categorical declarations with voluminous documentation.

Inhofe's latest claim is that "Over 400 prominent scientists from more than two dozen countries recently voiced significant objections to major aspects of the so-called 'consensus' on man-made global warming." It's a claim backed up by honest-to-goodness research, of the cut-and-paste kind.

Like any conspiracy theory, the sheer magnitude of the effort lends it a first-blush air of credibility. And, like any conspiracy theory, it just doesn't hold up under scrutiny.

But it takes a Hercules up to 12 labors-worth of boredom to prove it. Our Hercules is Mark V. Johnson, who works for AOL's Propeller.com. He endured 413 labors, one for each supposed expert on Inhofe's list, so you wouldn't have to.

He combed through university profiles, oil money think tank rosters, news stories and the now-robust literature of climate skeptic debunking. He couldn't identify every name, and we'll say at the outset that there may well be a handful of skeptics on this list with legitimate knowledge of climate science who question some aspect of the theory. It is, however, useful to remember that a theory, in science, is as good as gold (lest we start doubting something so incredible as the theory of gravity).

Here's a quick breakdown of Johnson's findings:

*Inhofe's list includes 413 people. (Score one Inhofe; the math holds up.)
*84 have either taken money from, or are connected to, fossil fuel industries, or think tanks started by those industries.
*49 are retired
*44 are television weathermen
*20 are economists
*70 have no apparent expertise in climate science
*Several supposed skeptics have publicly stated that they are very concerned about global warming, and support efforts to address it. One claims he was duped into signing the list and regrets it.


And unlike some denialist sites try to tell you, the science of carbon dioxide resulting in a greenhouse effect is very solid - it absorbs infrared light (and unlike some try to tell you, it most definitely isn't "saturated" so it can no longer have any effect); paleontology also indicates major past global warming events caused by greenhouse gasses (it also explains the ice age cycles, which have temperature swings that are otherwise too large to be explained by simple changes in the Earth's orbit). Not to mention that the Sun was a whopping 30% dimmer than today in the distant past - yet the Earth was at times warmer than today; why is that? Greenhouse gasses!

Here is a comprehensive history of the science behind greenhouse-gas induced global warming (BTW, without greenhouse gasses, the Earth would be frozen solid, roughly 33*C/59*F colder than present). It goes all the way back into the mid-1800s.
640 vort
The article doesn't mention that GM and Ford have reinvested $476 billion of their own money back into operations since 1997. What's another 25 going to accomplish???
It's way past time the UAW died it's long deserved death. With a wage scale 3 times the national average and living in a state with a zero economy, my sympathy goes out only to the children and retirees missled with a golden parachute retirement dream. The money should go for a union free reorganization and product reassesment. The less fortunate retirees need a hand for sure.
Just my two cents...lol
Quoting whatwhat1:
Another good link on Co2.


Link

So much for a review of high school freshman biology.
Quoting Winterstormsblog:


Thanks, nice link.


LOL... You actually say that is "nice"? Junk! 150 years of scientific research shows that CO2 definitely is something to be concerned about, when in increasing concentrations in the atmosphere (past climate changes also have been definitely attributed to changes in levels of CO2 and other GHGs). I see they post junk like "most of the warming occurred before 1940"... LOL! And what caused that warming? Nothing that we know of if you don't consider CO2 and other GHGs, especially the warming in more recent decades.
Quoting theshepherd:
640 vort
The article doesn't mention that GM and Ford have reinested $476 billion of their own money back into operations since 1997. What's another 25 going to accomplish???
It's way past time the UAW died it's long deserved death. With a wage scale 3 times the national average and living in a state with a zero economy, my sympathy goes out only to the children and retirees missled with a golden parachute retirement dream. They money should go for a union free reorganization and product reassesment. The less fortunate retirees need a hand for sure.
Just my two cents...lol



Pelosi was on TV this morning touting the new increased offer of 75 Billion to be made to the auto companies this upcoming week.
It's pretty obvious they want to get a shoe in that auto door and hope to push other agendas down their throats by doing so.
As much as I hate to see what is about to happen to the employees, retirees and children of auto workers...I feel bankruptcy is the best alternative.

Quoting vortfix:



Pelosi was on TV this morning touting the new increased offer of 75 Billion to be made to the auto companies this upcoming week.
It's pretty obvious they want to get a shoe in that auto door and hope to push other agendas down their throats by doing so.
As much as I hate to see what is about to happen to the employees, retirees and children of auto workers...I feel bankruptcy is the best alternative.


Pelosi,Melosi. She's a bane on society.
I'm almost with you on bankruptcy, but I think the opportunity to pick them back up and stand them on their feet needs a good think. If the pursuit of efficient developement and the elimination of the UAW were the guiding premises, I would support a helping hand.
Thank you STL 642
someone needed to say it
Quoting 15hurricanes:
The period 1995-2008 has been the most active for Atlantic hurricanes in the historical record.

2009 ??? Wait and see what happened!

hahahaha!!
The scary part about this is there is no way of knowing for sure if this so-called "active" period is actually closer to the norm, while the relatively inactive period seen in much of the 20th century was the anomaly . . .

Part of my concern about global warming predictions (regardless of whether they are actually reflecting the reality) is that our database on warming and cooling trends is so minute. Additionally, by the time we have gathered enough data, whatever trend or lack thereof will have played itself out . . .

Quoting vortfix:
Hostile Green Takeover: The Auto Industry Faces Environmental Thuggery

Senate Floor Speech - November 20, 2008


Senator James Inhofe (R-OK) Ranking Member, Environment and Public Works Committee



The latest bailout demand making the rounds in Washington is for the Big Three auto industry. Democrats would have you believe the proposed bailout is all about saving jobs, but, having been in Washington long enough, my instincts led me to dig deeper where I unearthed green roots hiding beneath the bailout rhetoric.

The proposed $25 billion bailout of Detroit now appears to have been hijacked by the powerful environmental lobby.

I only want to comment that the $25 billion u are talking about is actually money that has been set aside for "green" automotive development in the first place. Can't hijack it for the greening process if it's already been put aside for the greening process. . .

Also, I really think Congress SHOULD demand auto industries look for ways to develop non-oil dependent technologies ASAP. America has lost a lot of its clout worldwide because it is so dependent on non-American energy. From my viewpoint, saving the auto industry is much less about the environmental concerns (though I believe strongly that these concerns matter) and a lot more about saving America from massive international debt and dependence.
Aw, shucks, I gotta go. I haven't dipped into the GW debate for a while, and I was just getting my feet wet. . . .
653. IKE
Global warming debate***yawn***
Quoting IKE:
Global warming debate***yawn***


It's always the same...
656. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:


It's always the same...


Exactly.

Fortunately I have to go to town and will miss out on the rest of the arguing over it.

A funny artical from the past


Link
Quoting Drakoen:


It's always the same...


Which is why it has been added to my do not discuss list, along with politics and religion. ...oh yea, and hurricane forecasting :)
Quoting IKE:


Exactly.

Fortunately I have to go to town and will miss out on the rest of the arguing over it.



Should be watching football Ike.:)
661. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:


Should be watching football Ike.:)


I am....
My father showed me a hydrogen powered remote control car, all excited & followed with this story. When he was a teen, a friend had run across a 1920 something ford that was electric & ran on hydrogen. It had a thing to distill water & a hydrogen still to make hydrogen from water. They spent a few weeks rewiring it & fixing it up. Ran beautifully & for free... When cars were 1st introduced they weren't just gas. People prefured electric. Ford & the rest didn't give it to us then or since. If we have to bail them out, I want to be able to plug my next car into a solar panel or my hydrogen still, not pay another country so I can drive it..

The serria club article sounds like pro oil propaganda to me.
MichaelSTL - tapped a note to my surf weather buddy - asking him about the relationship of La Nina & El Nino in relationship to surfing -- (he also liked the link you gave me) I thought you'd enjoy.

"a moderately strong el nio is better for winter, la nia is better for cape verde hurricanes in lat aug &september

el nio's bring low presure to low lattitudes so we get lows in the gulf which can make for epic days 4-6ft and glassy

gotta go, packin for PR"

Quoting whatwhat1:
Link




(this only goes through 2004; check out this, also this)

You cannot compare regional temperatures to global temperatures (the above also clearly demonstrates why statements "It has been a very cold winter; what global warming? LOL") are also invalid.

So why don't you wise up and stop posting junk that can be easily debunked and/or is misleading?
He is going to PR -- not me ; (
Quoting whatwhat1:
A funny artical from the past


Link


Media hype -

The global cooling myth

Every now and again, the myth that "we shouldn't believe global warming predictions now, because in the 1970's they were predicting an ice age and/or cooling" surfaces. Recently, George Will mentioned it in his column (see Will-full ignorance) and the egregious Crichton manages to say "in the 1970's all the climate scientists believed an ice age was coming" (see Michael Crichton’s State of Confusion ). You can find it in various other places too [here, mildly here, etc]. But its not an argument used by respectable and knowledgeable skeptics, because it crumbles under analysis. That doesn't stop it repeatedly cropping up in newsgroups though.

I should clarify that I'm talking about predictions in the scientific press. There were some regrettable things published in the popular press (e.g. Newsweek; though National Geographic did better). But we're only responsible for the scientific press. If you want to look at an analysis of various papers that mention the subject, then try http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/.

Where does the myth come from? Naturally enough, there is a kernel of truth behind it all. Firstly, there was a trend of cooling from the 40's to the 70's (although that needs to be qualified, as hemispheric or global temperature datasets were only just beginning to be assembled then). But people were well aware that extrapolating such a short trend was a mistake (Mason, 1976) . Secondly, it was becoming clear that ice ages followed a regular pattern and that interglacials (such as we are now in) were much shorter that the full glacial periods in between. Somehow this seems to have morphed (perhaps more in the popular mind than elsewhere) into the idea that the next ice age was predicatable and imminent. Thirdly, there were concerns about the relative magnitudes of aerosol forcing (cooling) and CO2 forcing (warming), although this latter strand seems to have been short lived.


(for the last, it has been estimated that up to 80% of the potential warming so far has been masked by aerosols)
If brown clouds were eliminated overnight, this could trigger a rapid global temperature rise of as much as 2 degrees C. "Thus simply tackling the pollution linked with brown cloud formation without simultaneously delivering big cuts in greenhouse gases could have a potentially disastrous effect," it said.

Link


(I wonder why nobody denies this kind (aerosols and the like) of pollution/environmental damage, not really any different and related to the same things. Oh, because it causes global cooling so it fits the agenda of the "Ice Ageists"/"no global warming-ists"!)
Quoting Skyepony:
My father showed me a hydrogen powered remote control car, all excited & followed with this story. When he was a teen, a friend had run across a 1920 something ford that was electric & ran on hydrogen. It had a thing to distill water & a hydrogen still to make hydrogen from water. They spent a few weeks rewiring it & fixing it up. Ran beautifully & for free... When cars were 1st introduced they weren't just gas. People prefured electric. Ford & the rest didn't give it to us then or since. If we have to bail them out, I want to be able to plug my next car into a solar panel or my hydrogen still, not pay another country so I can drive it..

The serria club article sounds like pro oil propaganda to me.
Knowing a bit about exotic animals myself, you should take anything the Sierra Club publishes with a grain of salt.
Electric cars are no problem, it's the battery thingy that needs work. lol
Some interesting hydrogen generators on ebay. Their shortcomings are evident.
T.C.F.A
EST POS
11.4N/79.9W
DEV SLOW TO OCCUR
PRECIP 200+MM
FLOODING RISK HIGH
Yo, mom
Been fishin' lately.
Waiting to see if you improved on my mango/plum salsa ???
Uh oh mom
Capt Sparrow is on the tube...
"Data discovered on NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) website revises recorded temperatures for the United States. It is expected that similar revisions will also be made for global temperature recordings. This information was discovered by Steve McIntyre of Climate Audit on Wednesday (8/8/2007). No NASA press release, no James Hansen (head of GISS) announcement, nothing. Could it be because they don't want anyone to see it? The data is certainly devastating for the Al Gore camp which has based much of their Carbon Credits sales pitch on recent temperatures (e.g. claiming that 1998 was the warmest on record)."
How significant are human impacts?

They say that you can't see anything man-made from space, but this shows otherwise:



Of note is that aerosols only remain in the atmosphere for days, so you need a large constant output to maintain high levels, unlike greenhouse gasses which will accumulate due to much longer lifespans, even the shorter-lived ones like methane, which still has about 20 times the warming potential of CO2 over a century despite having a residence time of only 10 years (note that this can be misleading; it doesn't just all vanish in 10 years but rather more like radioactive half-life where half lasts 10 years, 1/4 20 years, etc). On very long time scales (irreverent to the present), levels of greenhouse gasses, mostly CO2, vary due to geologic processes, along with global temperatures (levels of CO2 have been gradually declining since Earth formed, while temperatures have remained relatively constant, excluding swings (largely caused by continental drift; e.g. Antarctica drifting towards the South Pole and becoming isolated caused a big drop), because of long-term solar brightening).

Perhaps of greatest concern is what happened in the past when sudden jumps in greenhouse gasses occurred; e.g -

Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum

The event saw global temperatures rise by around 6 °C over 20,000 years, with a corresponding rise in sea level as the whole of the oceans warmed.[2] Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations rose, causing a shallowing of the lysocline. Regional deep water anoxia may have played a part in marine extinctions. The event is linked to a negative excursion in the δ13C isotope record, which occurs in two short (~1,000 year) pulses. These probably represent degassing of clathrates ("methane ice" deposits), which accentuated a pre-existing warming trend. The release of these clathrates, and ultimately the event itself, may have been triggered by a range of causes. Evidence currently seems to favour an increase in volcanic activity as the main perpetrator.


(recent findings have added to concerns that large amounts of methane could be released; of course, the warming from that, if it happens, could be considered "natural", but not the warming that lead to it)
Quoting theshepherd:
Yo, mom
Been fishin' lately.
Waiting to see if you improved on my mango/plum salsa ???


No Time -- just a few minutes to catch my breath. Polo season has arrived, and now my work goes into full gear. All the families have just about returned, the barns are almost all filled up. From a ghost town to a vibrant horse filled athletic facility. Training and more training,(horses, young buck) games & practices, cleaning of tack, grooming -- very little time to be near my ocean -- or snitch away to surf. Plus physically I get beat. The work is labor -- I love it mind you -- but it tires me
Quoting theshepherd:
Uh oh mom
Capt Sparrow is on the tube...


Shepherd... ahhh thanks- RUNNING TO TV IN SEARCH OF THE CLICKER....a few days ago, I showed my spouse a picture of Captn' Jack Sparrow ...spouse says "I don't look like him"... I replied laughing "OH YES YOU DO!!"
Quoting whatwhat1:
"Data discovered on NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) website revises recorded temperatures for the United States. It is expected that similar revisions will also be made for global temperature recordings. This information was discovered by Steve McIntyre of Climate Audit on Wednesday (8/8/2007). No NASA press release, no James Hansen (head of GISS) announcement, nothing. Could it be because they don't want anyone to see it? The data is certainly devastating for the Al Gore camp which has based much of their Carbon Credits sales pitch on recent temperatures (e.g. claiming that 1998 was the warmest on record)."


More lunatic denialist B.S.

Here are the facts, from GISS ("no announcements/press releases/etc?" ROTFLMAO):

GISS Surface Temperature Analysis
August 2007 Update and Effects


Recently it was realized that the monthly more-or-less-automatic updates of our global temperature analysis had a flaw in the U.S. data. We wish to thank Stephen McIntyre for bringing to our attention that this flaw might be present.

In the 2001 update (described in Hansen et al. [2001]) of the analysis method (originally published in Hansen et al. [1981]), we included improvements that NOAA had made in station records in the U.S., their corrections being based mainly on station-by-station information about station movement, change of time-of-day at which max-min are recorded, etc.

Unfortunately, we didn't realize that these corrections would not continue to be readily available in the near-real-time data streams. The same stations are in the GHCN (Global Historical Climatology Network) data stream, however, and thus what our analysis picked up in subsequent years was station data without the NOAA correction. Obviously, combining the uncorrected GHCN with the NOAA-corrected records for earlier years caused jumps in 2000 in the records at those stations, some up, some down (over U.S. only). This problem is easy to fix, by matching the 1990s decadal-mean temperatures for the NOAA-corrected and GHCN records, and we have made that correction.



The flaw did have a noticeable effect on mean U.S. temperature anomalies, as much as 0.15°C, as shown in the right hand side of the figure above (for years 2001 and later, and 5 year mean for 1999 and later). That half of the figure can also be viewed in a larger GIF. (Complete figure also available as PDF.)

The effect on global temperature (the left side of the figure; see larger GIF) was of order one-thousandth of a degree, so the corrected and uncorrected curves are indistinguishable.

Contrary to some statements flying around the internet, there is no effect on the rankings of global temperature. Also our prior analysis had 1934 as the warmest year in the U.S. (see the 2001 paper above), and it continues to be the warmest year, both before and after the correction to post 2000 temperatures. However, as we note in that paper, the 1934 and 1998 temperature are practically the same, the difference being much smaller than the uncertainty.



Through scientific discussion here - http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/08/1934-and-all-that/
we now have 96L



WHXX01 KWBC 232110
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2110 UTC SUN NOV 23 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962008) 20081123 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
081123 1800 081124 0600 081124 1800 081125 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.9N 80.1W 9.6N 82.7W 9.5N 85.0W 9.4N 87.0W
BAMD 9.9N 80.1W 10.2N 81.8W 10.6N 83.4W 11.1N 84.9W
BAMM 9.9N 80.1W 10.1N 82.0W 10.4N 83.8W 10.6N 85.4W
LBAR 9.9N 80.1W 10.1N 80.6W 10.5N 81.4W 11.0N 82.1W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 38KTS 39KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 32KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
081125 1800 081126 1800 081127 1800 081128 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 8.9N 88.6W 8.0N 91.8W 7.6N 94.7W 7.3N 97.5W
BAMD 11.4N 85.9W 11.0N 87.2W 10.6N 89.2W 10.1N 91.8W
BAMM 10.4N 86.6W 9.4N 88.7W 8.9N 91.0W 8.0N 93.4W
LBAR 11.6N 82.2W 13.2N 81.2W 15.9N 77.8W 19.9N 72.3W
SHIP 40KTS 31KTS 15KTS 0KTS
DSHP 32KTS 23KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.9N LONCUR = 80.1W DIRCUR = 90DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 10.2N LONM12 = 80.5W DIRM12 = 158DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 10.7N LONM24 = 80.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Come on, when are you going to fold? You can't win, I have debunked every piece of misinformation and lies that you have posted so far.
I don't know about "Global", but it has been below freezing every night for a week here in N. Ga. 16 last night. 1" of ice across my 1/2 acre pond. Spring feed & 15' deep.
Not even Thanksgiving yet!
Quoting MichaelSTL:
How significant are human impacts?

They say that you can't see anything man-made from space, but this shows otherwise:



Of note is that aerosols only remain in the atmosphere for days, so you need a large constant output to maintain high levels, unlike greenhouse gasses which will accumulate due to much longer lifespans, even the shorter-lived ones like methane, which still has about 20 times the warming potential of CO2 over a century despite having a residence time of only 10 years (note that this can be misleading; it doesn't just all vanish in 10 years but rather more like radioactive half-life where half lasts 10 years, 1/4 20 years, etc). On very long time scales (irreverent to the present), levels of greenhouse gasses, mostly CO2, vary due to geologic processes, along with global temperatures (levels of CO2 have been gradually declining since Earth formed, while temperatures have remained relatively constant, excluding swings (largely caused by continental drift; e.g. Antarctica drifting towards the South Pole and becoming isolated caused a big drop), because of long-term solar brightening).

Perhaps of greatest concern is what happened in the past when sudden jumps in greenhouse gasses occurred; e.g -

Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum

The event saw global temperatures rise by around 6 °C over 20,000 years, with a corresponding rise in sea level as the whole of the oceans warmed.[2] Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations rose, causing a shallowing of the lysocline. Regional deep water anoxia may have played a part in marine extinctions. The event is linked to a negative excursion in the δ13C isotope record, which occurs in two short (~1,000 year) pulses. These probably represent degassing of clathrates ("methane ice" deposits), which accentuated a pre-existing warming trend. The release of these clathrates, and ultimately the event itself, may have been triggered by a range of causes. Evidence currently seems to favour an increase in volcanic activity as the main perpetrator.


(recent findings have added to concerns that large amounts of methane could be released; of course, the warming from that, if it happens, could be considered "natural", but not the warming that lead to it)


True, the location of continents has a large impact on the Earths climate. The location of continents affects the oceanic currents which distribute thermal energy.
I have not the scientific background, or savvy to discuss GW -- but I feel that until we do know for sure.... why would we do anything that could be contributing to a situation that is not healthy for the planet earth.

Telsa did some very fascinating work in regards to energy(although there is much in regards to weapons I find horrifying)
well lets see theres......


INVEST 96L!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

LOL sorry had to do it!
Taz -- bearer of ...News 96L never would have believed it...but I kept my mouth shut so I don't have to eat crow this time
Oh, "This information was discovered by Steve McIntyre of Climate Audit on Wednesday (8/8/2007). No NASA press release,":

August 7, 2007: A discontinuity in station records in the U.S. was discovered and corrected (GHCN data for 2000 and later years were inadvertently appended to USHCN data for prior years without including the adjustments at these stations that had been defined by the NOAA National Climate Data Center). This had a small impact on the U.S. average temperature, about 0.15°C, for 2000 and later years, and a negligible effect on global temperature, as is shown here.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/updates/


Ooops! They put out the press release a day before it was "discovered", so the denialists say - LOL!
Catch you later...men are appearing...point to bellies.......
all I know is that our pollution has an effect on the earth but no "Day after Tommorrow" type of scenario

PS I gotta show everyone something that happened last night if you weren't up

brb to upload a photo
Quoting MichaelSTL:
Come on, when are you going to fold? You can't win, I have debunked every piece of misinformation and lies that you have posted so far.


I am a conspiracy theorist to the end. Only time will tell. My bet is we are not causing “climate change.” Scientific theory is only as good as the mathematical formulas devised to produce the intended results. And that is what they are looking for. So that is what they will find.

looky what ya'll missed if you weren't here last night!



and yes noone here is experencing color blindness
Quoting surfmom:
I have not the scientific background, or savvy to discuss GW -- but I feel that until we do know for sure.... why would we do anything that could be contributing to a situation that is not healthy for the planet earth.

Telsa did some very fascinating work in regards to energy(although there is much in regards to weapons I find horrifying)


Why do you say that? It is not a matter of "until we know for sure", though a lot of deniers want you to believe otherwise.

Empirical evidence for anthropogenic global warming

What the science says...

There are multiple lines of evidence, independent of climate models, that show that manmade emissions are causing global warming. The logic is as follows:

CO2 is rising

Rising CO2 levels are based not on one station but over 300 stations in 66 countries (World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases). Isotope ratios show the increase is due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions (Ghosh 2003). CO2 is rising and mankind is causing it.
CO2 causes warming

Climate sensitivity is commonly defined as how much global temperature increase if we doubled CO2. So what is our planet's climate sensitivity?

* Annan 2006 uses a variety of independent methods and results from many studies to narrow climate sensitivity to around 2.5 to 3.5°C.
* Tung 2007 calculates climate sensitivity to between 2.3 to 4.1°C using a model-independent analysis of observations.

These studies, using a variety of independent methods studying different datasets, estimate a climate sensitivity around 3.0 degrees. More on climate sensitivity...
Expected warming

Many lines of evidence show that the Earth has in fact warmed by an amount consistent with theory. Some aspects of the warming are unique to CO2 warming - the carbon "fingerprint".

* Surface weather station measurements
* Satellite measurements show that the troposphere is warming
* The stratosphere is cooling as predicted by anthropogenic global warming theory (this cannot be explained by solar variability)
* Temperatures at the ocean surface and at various ocean depths show warming as far down as 1500 meters
* Sea level rise
* Gravitometric measurements of Greenland and Antarctica show net ice loss
* Sea-ice loss in the Arctic is dramatically accelerating
* Acceleration of glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica, particularly within the last few years.
* The rise of the tropopause
* Poleward migration of species
* Increased intensity of hurricanes as expected from rising sea surface temperatures
* Accelerating decline of glaciers throughout the world
* Rise in temperatures at greater depths in the permafrost
* Rapid expansion of thermokarst lakes throughout parts of Siberia, Canada and Alaska
* Changes in ocean circulation as predicted by climate models, for example, with temperatures rising more quickly overland
* Disintegration of permafrost coastlines in the arctic
* Changes in the altitude of the stratosphere
* An energy imbalance - the earth is receiving more energy than it emits (Hansen 2005)
* Poleward movement of the jet streams (Archer 2008, Seidel 2007, Fu 2006)
* Widening of the tropical belt (Seidel 2007, Fu 2006)

Conclusion

There is a clear empirical evidence that CO2 is rising, CO2 causes warming and the expected warming is observed. This poses two problems for those who deny anthropogenic warming:

1. What is causing the warming if not CO2?
2. Why isn't rising CO2 causing the warming?


(I specifically highlighted the phrase "There are multiple lines of evidence" because that is very important in science; if only a few observations support something then it isn't very solid)
I sold my car last year and have never felt freer! I use my feet or take the free bus offered through the university. No more car maintenance or gas spending. Having a car is a trap.
RE 690


I like the color Green that they put on there but how does that fit into the scale? LOL
Quoting surfmom:
Telsa did some very fascinating work in regards to energy(although there is much in regards to weapons I find horrifying)


You saw that show too, huh! Fascinating. And yea, he was a little scary.
96L! 96L! 96L! 96L!
OMJ 96L formed! Rene is on it's way
X X
___
U
I died
when you think of Tesla, does HAARP come to mind?
MichaelSTL

I'm still waiting for a graph for 1998-2008.

Yes, I read your response to mine, but please a graph of 1998-2008.

TIA.
Quoting Hurricane4Lex:
looky what ya'll missed if you weren't here last night!



and yes noone here is experencing color blindness

I noticed that first that was awesome
Quoting all4hurricanes:
96L! 96L! 96L! 96L!
OMJ 96L formed! Rene is on it's way
X X
___
U
I died


LOL and he's still GREEN! LOL

(well according to the image I saved from last night)
The biggest uncertainties are not whether it is happening or what is causing it (I should say, the main cause because many other things also influence climate like ENSO, solar, volcanoes, etc, no doubt about that; even moreso for regional changes like the AMO, PDO, NAO, etc), but mostly concerning what will happen and exactly how much of an effect we can expect. For example:

Climate sensitivity is expressed as the global temperature change for a particular forcing (eg - °C change per W/m2 forcing). More commonly, it's given as the warming for doubled CO2 (i.e. from 280 ppm to 560 ppm).
Climate sensitivity from models

The first estimates of climate sensitivity came from climate models.

* In the 1979 Charney report, two models from Suki Manabe and Jim Hansen estimated a sensitivity range between 1.5 to 4.5°C.
* Forest 2002 uses a fingerprinting approach on modern temperature records and finds a range 1.4 to 7.7°C.
* Knutti 2005 uses modelling (entering different sensitivities then comparing to seasonal responses) to find a climate sensitivity range 1.5 to 6.5°C - with 3 to 3.5 most likely
* Hegerl 2006 looks at paleontological data over the past 6 centuries to calculates a range 1.5 to 6.2°C.
* Annan 2006 combines results from a variety of independent methods to narrow climate sensitivity to around 2.5 to 3.5°C.
* Royer 2007 examines temperature response to CO2 over the past 420 million years and determines climate sensitivity cannot be lower than 1.5°C (with a best fit of 2.8°C).

Climate sensitivity from empirical observations

There have been a number of studies that calculate climate sensitivity directly from empirical observations, independent of models.

* Hansen 1993 looks at the last 20,000 years when the last ice age ended and empirically calculates a climate sensitivity of 3 ± 1°C.
* Lorius 1990 examined Vostok ice core data and calculates a range of 3 to 4°C.
* Hoffert 1992 reconstructs two paleoclimate records (one colder, one warmer) to yield a range 1.4 to 3.2°C.
* Gregory 2002 used observations of ocean heat uptake to calculate a minimum climate sensitivity of 1.5.
* Tung 2007 performs statistical analysis on 20th century temperature response to the solar cycle to calculate a range 2.3 to 4.1°C.


Obviously a large range in all of these estimates (but they all center around about 3*C per doubling of CO2 and ranges have narrowed with time; note that this also accounts for feedbacks; for example, it has been confirmed (based on actual data) that model predictions regarding water vapor feedback doubling the effect of CO2 alone are correct)
Quoting all4hurricanes:

I noticed that first that was awesome


LOL ya I remember post 510 but yours shows it yellow now mines green cause I saved it on my comp also WPB was there too
Quoting MichaelSTL:
Come on, when are you going to fold? You can't win, I have debunked every piece of misinformation and lies that you have posted so far.


Another conspiracy site for yaLink
And another. Ok I will stop. We can all agree we need a healthy planet with clean air and water. Not to mention not giving our money to the Middle East.


Link
be back gotta go set up the X mas tree :)
Quoting itsnotgw:
when you think of Tesla, does HAARP come to mind?

I admit it, had to look up HAARP, but yea it does. Guy was way ahead of his time. And there are still people trying to work on his idea of distributing electricity without wires using his theories.

Wardenclyffe Tower

Some of Tesla's More Notable Inventions
Quoting Seastep:
MichaelSTL

I'm still waiting for a graph for 1998-2008.

Yes, I read your response to mine, but please a graph of 1998-2008.

TIA.


First of all, it is invalid to try to make some statement about a trend that starts at a warm year (1998, strong El Nino) and end at a cool year (2008, strong La Nina). Second, trends are usually defined over longer periods, usually at least 30 years because over shorter periods there is significant variability from ENSO and other natural influences; temperatures clearly don't simply rise in a monotonic fashion.

Here are graphs of monthly temperatures with trends from 1970-2008 and 1998-2008 (data obtained from here, using 1 month averages or effectively no smoothing, plotted in Excel including added trendlines); the latter period shows less warming but still warming, even though it is skewed for reasons I mentioned before:

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

(eyeballing this graph, I can see periods similar to the last 10 years, even with significant negative trends, you can also see that most of the last decade has actually been above the trendline)

Here is a more fair assessment, starting at 1999 (the last strong La Nina year prior to 2008, thus the ENSO influence should be similar):

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

(the trend is now even larger than the 1970-2008 trend and twice as large as the 1998-2008 trend since we are now starting and ending at La Nina years)

Also notice that the hottest month on record was in 2007 (which also had the warmest Dec-Feb on record and highest land temperatures on record and record warmth for the Northern Hemisphere).

The above also demonstrates why you need to use a trendline to see trends in noisy data over relatively short periods - trendlines also don't include stuff like curve-fitting (people who do that get an "F" in statistics).
621. theshepherd
625. Skyepony

Thanks for your responses. Just came in off the lake - beautiful boating weather, but wore completely out. Ha Ha...nap time, will be back later tonight.
705. PcolaDan

Always been a student of Tesla, a real unsung hero. Unfortunately 90% of people have no clue who he was.

L8tr
Quoting whatwhat1:
And another. Ok I will stop. We can all agree we need a healthy planet with clean air and water. Not to mention not giving our money to the Middle East.


Link




As is obvious from this graph, the largest infrared absorption is by water vapor. Water vapor determines the extent of the baseline greenhouse effect but is not directly responsible for man-made global warming. From a global warming perspective the most important greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide. However, note that CO2 related warming will eventually increase the ocean surface temperature which will increase the average atmospheric water vapor concentration and hence will reduce Ft causing further warming.

(but notice the big dip caused by CO2, which is about 10% of the (33*C/59*F) greenhouse effect, not the .0000000000000000000000001% some claim)

Really, we can actually measure things like atmospheric absorption...
Some additional examples of how showing only a few years can be misleading when there is a lot of noise:

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

(note that the most recent month (October 2008) in the last graph doesn't seem so warm; that is because NOAA uses a different analysis and has October 2008 as the second warmest; GISS has it as the 5th warmest probably because they include the poles and Antarctica was rather cold last month, note also the large short-term cooling trends; -0.0189*C/month, -0.227*C/year from 1988-89, compared to the warming trend of about +0.168*C/decade, but only for a year or two, but denialists love to tell you that "a decade or two of warming has been erased!" or worse, use two months (e.g. January 2007 and January 2008) and say that "a century of warming has been erased!!!" and silly stuff like that)


Of course, on the flip side, I could post a graph like this and made unsuspecting victims think that catastrophic global warming is imminent (I don't do stuff like this, so why do others?):

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

(according to this, since January this year, warming has been occurring at the rate of 0.354*C/year, or 3.54*C/decade or over 20 times faster that the 1970-2008/1999-2008 warming)
Here in MI, the average temp has risen 1 farenheight degree since 1900. I see no reason to worry about global warming.
Even sillier examples that show cooling/warming trends of -20.9*C and +29*C per decade (the former would cause the Earth to freeze solid in about 7 years while the latter would cause it to boil in about 29 years):

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
If it is global average why would they not include The poles? "GISS has it as the 5th warmest probably because they include the poles and Antarctica." "NOAA uses a different analysis." Lack of consistency and changes in algorthims they use to determine temperature causes disbelief.
96L been hanging around that area for almost a week before any official notice was taken of it, I just don't like its persistence.
Quoting twistermania:
Here in MI, the average temp has risen 1 farenheight degree since 1900. I see no reason to worry about global warming.


Yeah, but global warming is a whole lot more than temperature rise, and 1 degree may not seem like much, but it is a big deal when considering the climate; for example, the ice ages were only several degrees colder than today. Also, where has most of the warming occurred? Here is a map of temperature rise since 1999 (the reds in the Arctic indicate rises in excess of 5 degrees F in just that short period):



There is little doubt that there have been major impacts from that; statements like "Oh, it is only going to get a few degrees hotter, who cares?" are very narrowminded.


Empirical evidence for anthropogenic global warming

Many lines of evidence show that the Earth has in fact warmed by an amount consistent with theory. Some aspects of the warming are unique to CO2 warming - the carbon "fingerprint".

* Surface weather station measurements
* Satellite measurements show that the troposphere is warming
* The stratosphere is cooling as predicted by anthropogenic global warming theory (this cannot be explained by solar variability)
* Temperatures at the ocean surface and at various ocean depths show warming as far down as 1500 meters
* Sea level rise
* Gravitometric measurements of Greenland and Antarctica show net ice loss
* Sea-ice loss in the Arctic is dramatically accelerating
* Acceleration of glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica, particularly within the last few years.
* The rise of the tropopause
* Poleward migration of species
* Increased intensity of hurricanes as expected from rising sea surface temperatures
* Accelerating decline of glaciers throughout the world
* Rise in temperatures at greater depths in the permafrost
* Rapid expansion of thermokarst lakes throughout parts of Siberia, Canada and Alaska
* Changes in ocean circulation as predicted by climate models, for example, with temperatures rising more quickly overland
* Disintegration of permafrost coastlines in the arctic
* Changes in the altitude of the stratosphere
* An energy imbalance - the earth is receiving more energy than it emits (Hansen 2005)
* Poleward movement of the jet streams (Archer 2008, Seidel 2007, Fu 2006)
* Widening of the tropical belt (Seidel 2007, Fu 2006)
Quoting stormpetrol:
96L been hanging around that area for almost a week before any official notice was taken of it, I just don't like its persistence.


96L Its getting a lot of shear, and shear is forecast to remaind highly unfavorable for development, even thought yor are correct the persistance of this disturbance is unlikely lets see what NHC has to say about it in the upcoming TWO.
Quoting whatwhat1:
If it is global average why would they not include The poles? "GISS has it as the 5th warmest probably because they include the poles and Antarctica." "NOAA uses a different analysis." Lack of consistency and changes in algorthims they use to determine temperature causes disbelief.


That is why I prefer GISS over the NCDC/NOAA data (which isn't used that often anyway, though it tends to get the most press because NOAA puts out all of those press releases every month; GISS only releases yearly summaries). The NCEP reanalysis data (here and here) is also a good source, although they don't maintain global temperature datasets like GISS and others do, only maps and stuff.

Even with the differences they all show basically the same thing, although the HadCRU data is noticeably different from GISS and NCDC (it is often used to show that there hasn't been any warming since 1998, though that is clearly a false statement if you compare the last 5 years to the previous 5 years, also discussed here, also has another comparison like the chart below but including NCEP reanalysis and ERA40):



IMO, the exact ranking of individual years/months isn't as important as the trend; the use of different base periods also doesn't really matter (except to shift things up/down relative to an arbitrary line).
~Think all that science is going to overload me at midnight...

Thanks though STL, for providing statements with scientific links and basis, so we can read for ourselves rather than making sweeping assumptions and news cuttings. :)
“Indeed, global temperature records taken from ice cores, tree rings, and lake deposits, have shown that the Earth was actually slightly cooler (by 0.03 degrees Celsius) during the 'Medieval Warm Period' than in the early- and mid-20th century.”

The medieval warm period was from 800 to 1300 AD. So since then the earth has warmed 0.03 degrees Celsius. If you start your data from the little ice age then we have warmed a lot more. Like was mentioned it is hard to use short intervals of time to create trends. And the trends will look differently based on when you start and stop. I surmise using records from 1880 to 2008 and even less is some instances like only from the 1970’s is inaccurate. Given geologic time one hundred years is nothing.


This is only one region but still interesting.

North Atlantic

"A radiocarbon-dated box core in the Sargasso Sea shows that the sea surface temperature was approximately 1 °C (1.8 °F) cooler than today approximately 400 years ago (the Little Ice Age) and 1700 years ago, and approximately 1 °C warmer than today 1000 years ago (the Medieval Warm Period).[6]
During the MWP wine grapes were grown in Europe as far north as southern Britain."
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST NORTH OF PANAMA IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
TODAY...AND SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARD.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.



NHC gives 96L slight chance (20% or less) of development.
Winter Storm Watch for northern N.C mountains.2-4inches of snow

This is realy early for the season.Winston Salem,which is in the piedmont got .5 of snow last Friday.
They actually raised it to orange.
You can send some of that our way North Cakalaky! We could use some snow to go with the silly season.
Quoting antonio28:


96L Its getting a lot of shear, and shear is forecast to remaind highly unfavorable for development, even thought yor are correct the persistance of this disturbance is unlikely lets see what NHC has to say about it in the upcoming TWO.


Not really. Shear is a bit high right now, but based off the shear tendancy maps it is decreasing to about 15-20 knts. So, it looks like shear is marginally favorable as long as it does not move too far north.

Quoting twistermania:
NHC gives 96L slight chance (20% or less) of development.


Now it's orange.
Appalachian Ski Mtn, North Carolina

Side-by-Side Ski Conditions
Last Updated: 11/23/08
Base Snow: 48 - 60"

-weatherunderground


Trends say this is going to be a TS
It's getting blasted by 30-40kt shear.

Though it could do a Barry, I guess.
Good evening all.
The NHC took 98L from green (?) , to yellow, to orange, in a couple hours. Whats up with that ? At that rate, it will be a Hurricane by midnight. Following the EXTRAP model, of course.LOL
Quoting whatwhat1:
%u201CIndeed, global temperature records taken from ice cores, tree rings, and lake deposits, have shown that the Earth was actually slightly cooler (by 0.03 degrees Celsius) during the 'Medieval Warm Period' than in the early- and mid-20th century.%u201D

The medieval warm period was from 800 to 1300 AD. So since then the earth has warmed 0.03 degrees Celsius. If you start your data from the little ice age then we have warmed a lot more. Like was mentioned it is hard to use short intervals of time to create trends. And the trends will look differently based on when you start and stop. I surmise using records from 1880 to 2008 and even less is some instances like only from the 1970%u2019s is inaccurate. Given geologic time one hundred years is nothing.


This is only one region but still interesting.

North Atlantic

"A radiocarbon-dated box core in the Sargasso Sea shows that the sea surface temperature was approximately 1 C (1.8 F) cooler than today approximately 400 years ago (the Little Ice Age) and 1700 years ago, and approximately 1 C warmer than today 1000 years ago (the Medieval Warm Period).[6]
During the MWP wine grapes were grown in Europe as far north as southern Britain."


The early to mid-20th century... it has warmed more than half a degree since then:



Also, evidence suggests that the biggest impacts of the MWP and LIA were regional (likely involving anomalies in the North Atlantic Oscillation). Possibly also changes in the THC; for instance, here is what a shutdown would do (projection for 2050, compared to preindustrial temperatures, although it also includes additional warming):



(yes, this is a good example also of how regional climate change can be much larger than global climate change, either masking or amplifying it; the above would suggest glaciers in northern Europe)
New blog post up, and contest still on!
734. IKE
Global cooling offered in the 6-10 day extended.......

735. IKE
8-14 day extended offers more global cooling....

Regarding vineyards in England:

English vineyards again….

Readers may recall a thorough examination of the history of English wine here a few months ago - chiefly because the subject tends to come up as a contrarian climate talking point every now and again. The bottom line from that post was that the English wine industry is currently thriving and has a geographical extent and quality levels that are unprecedented in recorded history. So whether vineyards are a good proxy for climate or not, you certainly can't use the supposed lack of present day English vineyards in any serious discussion about climate….


Also:

Why? Well, warm periods have occured in the past, and if not the medieval period, then probably the last interglacial (120,000 years ago), certainly the Pliocene (3 million years ago), without question the (Eocene 50 million years), and in particular the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (55 million years ago), and so on. Current theories of climate change do not rely on whether today's temperatures are 'unprecedented'. Instead they examine the physical causes of climate change and match up what we know about their physical effects and time history and see which of the multiple drivers or combination can best explain the observations. For the last few decades, that is quite clearly the rise in greenhouse gases, punctuated by the occasional volcano and mitigated slightly by the concomittant rise in particulate pollution.
Quoting IKE:
Global cooling offered in the 6-10 day extended.......



LOL

I ought to just ignore you... that is regional cooling or better, "weather". What about the rest of the globe?



Some cold areas... some warm areas... overall? More warm than cold (at the same time the U.S. is expected to be cold, Canada is expected to fry), thus global warming (do you need a definition of global)?
Leave it to MichaelSTL to threaten the "ignore" or "ban" when someone disagrees with AGW.

He banned me from his blog because of it. It's fine though. I have no room for those who are intolerant of critical thinking.
Quoting surfmom:
I have not the scientific background, or savvy to discuss GW -- but I feel that until we do know for sure.... why would we do anything that could be contributing to a situation that is not healthy for the planet earth.
\
Why do you say that? It is not a matter of "until we know for sure", though a lot of deniers want you to believe otherwise.

Ok MichaelSTL -- You called me OUT, and I am glad you did...I tried to take a wuss position --cause I am not savvy enough to scientifically stand up for myself, and I was being a chicken rather then stand up for my beliefs with some of the big dogs.... but I will go on record and say YES I AGREE WITH YOU MICHAEL, and we do have a problem happening -- I don't know how much of it we the humans have caused -- we are certainly in the "witches brew", but
like the economy until it clearly effects our Bellies---most of us will not address the issue and believe what we are being spoon fed via the media.
Never teach a pig to sing, it only frustrates you and annoys the pig
as an addendum to my above post -- I do not ban, I do not ignore --- The only time I use those aids are for cruelty and troll behavior

It is good to be a crusader and question authority, but keeping tolerance & compassion is important
741. IKE
Quoting MichaelSTL:


LOL

I ought to just ignore you... that is regional cooling or better, "weather". What about the rest of the globe?



Some cold areas... some warm areas... overall? More warm than cold (at the same time the U.S. is expected to be cold, Canada is expected to fry), thus global warming (do you need a definition of global)?


I was joking....lighten up....please.
742. IKE
Quoting MichaelSTL:


LOL

I ought to just ignore you... that is regional cooling or better, "weather". What about the rest of the globe?



Some cold areas... some warm areas... overall? More warm than cold (at the same time the U.S. is expected to be cold, Canada is expected to fry), thus global warming (do you need a definition of global)?


And you can ignore me if you wish. I don't care.
Hi Pot
Any wahoo stories?
Using the same flawed illogic, I guess that there was also global cooling last month because the U.S. was colder than average (or Antarctica or parts of the Pacific, England, etc):

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Even better, what about the warmest January on record in the United States? Check out how cold Russia was ("Dozens die in Russian cold snap"):

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Just examples of regional temperature variability... not the same or even close to comparable to global temperatures...
The second-worst sci fi weather movie of all time will be starting on the Sci Fi channel at 9 EST NYC Tornado Terror.
hey, everyone, only enough time to post just this... I have a question for everyone. Does anyone know where to find data on the Tropical Depressions in the Atlantic prior to 1991 and in the Eastern Pacific prior to 1988?? I looked through all the reports when you go to past storms, and the range of dates, and I have looked through all those. Anything that ends in -prelim/ does not contain tropical depression data, and any years before there is just -prelim/ do not have adequate data. So if anyone else knows where to find data on these storms, it would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks
-hurristat
Also, send any and all responses to my WU mail.
Ike's maps sure have the USA a nice shade of Obama blue :)
We could get another system. Fat lady hasn't sung yet. Pretty decent area of convection in the southern Caribbean. Increasing 850mb vort max in the area and strong upper level diffluent flow aloft.
750. IKE
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Ike's maps sure have the USA a nice shade of Obama blue :)


Yeah it does, doesn't it...lol.
Martha redux! Link
Quoting IKE:


Yeah it does, doesn't it...lol.


and alaska's red... funny :)
The GFDL makes 96L a hurricane eventually. Most likely over done.
The models tracks for our Caribbean disturbance look like a spider someone stepped on.
MichaelSTL
At what point during global warming will the growing seasons be extended in the northern climates where the soil is more fertile producing more food for the world's hungry?
757. IKE
18Z GFDL turns 96L into a cane...Link
758. IKE
18Z HWRF slams 96L into central-America as a tropical storm....Link
Well, if average temps rise about 5 C (9 F) the Yukon basin in central Alaska would be a great wheat growing region. However at temps much above 45C (113) photosynthesis stops, so the Indian subcontinent's agriculture would stop, and as heat waves like that grew more common in the midwest, agriculture would stop there too.
Quoting IKE:
18Z HWRF slams 96L into central-America as a tropical storm....Link


And relatively smaller lol.
Shouldn't we give invest numbers to the start of the "snow hurricanes" we're sure to get real soon. Numbers like -20L LOL.
I like the Martha path. Panama has never had hurricane force winds from a tropical system. It's their turn.
96L looks good for not being a TD or TS it think we may have are R storm come monday or sooner if this keeps up

Looks good on the AVN too...
it should be inland within two days..and I am sure no HH will be sent down...The NHC will base it's strength soley on all the satellite, ship and land observations. Are there any radars in that area that can pick up this invest?
759 Stsim
Understand.
But your referring to current areas which require considerable amounts of modern fertilizers to produce on depleted soils.
The northern migration of crops into almost virgin agricultural regions would have a tremendous yield
767. JLPR
wow we have 96L and wow it looks good...
wow lol
It looks like here comes the R =P and I thought the season was over =S
Hi Sheph.
No fishing. Sat around doing nothing but overdoing. Feeling bloated right now. It was good. Weather was not co-operative for fishing......
Sheph, post 766.
Correct. Except that there is no way we would farm those areas in a holistic way. We will deplete the soil there in quick time, and have to use chemical nutrient to keep the yeild up.
Hi Everyone

Well, I never thought I would be back blogging about another invest in the SW Caribbean. The GFDL is very aggressive with it and develops a Cat 2 hurricane by next weekend.
10-4 pot
Sounds like a "Nobody knows you when you're down and out" weekend.
Pull out the six string and pour a rum brother.
Well I hope it doesn't build up and head your way Kman!
Hi Kman. And that system has been sitting there, stationary, for over a week too. Weirdness........
Quoting kmanislander:
Hi Everyone

Well, I never thought I would be back blogging about another invest in the SW Caribbean. The GFDL is very aggressive with it and develops a Cat 2 hurricane by next weekend.


Something tells me you have been lurking about...
Quoting pottery:
Hi Kman. And that system has been sitting there, stationary, for over a week too. Weirdness........


Yep, November is the time of year when the crazy systems come out to play. Current steering would suggest W over land but typically anything down there heads due N then NE.

Boy, am I weary of this season.
Last news I heard from Caracas, is that 4 people died as a result of heavy rains there on Friday.....Same cloudmass/wave that resulted in 2 deaths here, and major damage due to flooding and landslips on Tues and Wed last.
nice to see the regulars around for the last time this season...seems like old times!
774. Drakoen 1:21 AM GMT on November 24, 2008

LOL, yes I have been lurking and hoping it was all over. The shear map says this thing should be torn apart but there it is persisting and looking better all the time.
Quoting kmanislander:


Yep, November is the time of year when the crazy systems come out to play. Current steering would suggest W over land but typically anything down there heads due N then NE.

Boy, am I weary of this season.

this is called the NO rule. Anything after the letter N is hard to predict.
769 pot
Yeah, just toying with the idea.
I wonder if the coral reefs would migrate north?
Too many questions??? I'll stop. lol
Quoting kmanislander:
774. Drakoen 1:21 AM GMT on November 24, 2008

LOL, yes I have been lurking and hoping it was all over. The shear map says this thing should be torn apart but there it is persisting and looking better all the time.


The SHIPS initialization shows 20 knots of shear over it. It can't afford to move north. You can see on water vapor imagery the strong upper level winds spreading that moisture all the way back to the eastern Caribbean.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
nice to see the regulars around for the last time this season...seems like old times!


I don't think we want "old times" with the regulars lol. This year was pretty bad with the drama.
Quoting pottery:
Sheph, post 766.
Correct. Except that there is no way we would farm those areas in a holistic way. We will deplete the soil there in quick time, and have to use chemical nutrient to keep the yeild up.

Agreed!
781. Drakoen 1:26 AM GMT on November 24, 2008

The gfdl run has it essentailly sitting there all week. By next weekend it is still shown as being E of Nicaragua near 14N.

If that plays out the shear may have slackened by then but I have not had a chance to look at the long range shear forecast.
Quoting hurristat:

this is called the NO rule. Anything after the letter N is hard to predict.
and not much of anything was easy to call this year -- all the rules were broken
We definitely do not need even the rain from it as numerous homes and other buildings in Cayman Brac and Little Cayman are still trying to do roof repairs from Paloma. In fact, in Cayman Brac many homes lost the entire roof and any rain now will do further damage to the interiors.
It could form, go south, cross panama and become a hurricane in the E. Pacific and become Rene (with accent)- Rachel???
Quoting Drakoen:


I don't think we want "old times" with the regulars lol. This year was pretty bad with the drama.
Happily, most of them have "exhausted" themselves... Ike caused a lot of "nervous breakdowns"
i can't believe I'm reading these posts and entertaining the idea of another 'cane...in November, when I'm freezing my butt off
LOL....there were some "unusual" times this season. We ought to come up with the top ten most outrageous or unusual posts that we remember. One of my most memorable was the person (forgot the name) who had to go to the hospital to visit his girlfriend who had been in a car wreck...but promised they would be back to post about a storm as soon as it was convienent.
Quoting kmanislander:
781. Drakoen 1:26 AM GMT on November 24, 2008

The gfdl run has it essentailly sitting there all week. By next weekend it is still shown as being E of Nicaragua near 14N.

If that plays out the shear may have slackened by then but I have not had a chance to look at the long range shear forecast.


The GFDL looks to be over doing things and always gets too over ambitious with it's initial runs. I'll stay conservative and go with the other models that take it into Panama as possibly a tropical storm. The GFS shows shear slackening somewhat; though, that is 4-5 days from now when it may already be going inland as shown by the BAM and GFS.
Wow, we went from "season's over" to "Rene might be here by monday".

Hello TS Rene. :-)
Quoting surfmom:
i can't believe I'm reading these posts and entertaining the idea of another 'cane...in November, when I'm freezing my butt off


It has even been " chilly " here, in a relative sense

73 in the morning with 30 knot winds is COLD for us LOL
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
LOL....there were some "unusual" times this season. We ought to come up with the top ten most outrageous or unusual posts that we remember. One of my most memorable was the person (forgot the name) who had to go to the hospital to visit his girlfriend who had been in a car wreck...but promised they would be back to post about a storm as soon as it was convienent.


I think the most dramatic moments were during and then (even more so) after Dolly. Full-fledged war managed to spread into two blogs.
792. Drakoen 1:33 AM GMT on November 24, 2008

The HWRF has the inland motion over Costa Rica. That would suit me fine. Inland there would be a rain event only.
post 789. LOL Mom. But some of us "ole times Regulars" have not exhausted themselves as yet. Nervous breakdowns and all.
heheheheh
Hi Pottery,

I saw that you had some heavy rain down your way last week. When is your dry season ?
Quoting kmanislander:
792. Drakoen 1:33 AM GMT on November 24, 2008

The HWRF has the inland motion over Costa Rica. That would suit me fine. Inland there would be a rain event only.


Yea. It's relying on northwesterly flow around a mid level ridge like the GFS as opposed to the GFDL who see a deep-layered trough being able to steering the system (being a hurricane).
Kman, dry from end Dec to june. But this year it rained right through to the first week of March. So last dryseason was short, but intense....
23/2345 UTC 10.5N 78.7W T1.0/1.0 INVEST -- Atlantic
T.C.F.A.
TD/18L/R
EST.POS.
80.1W/11.2N
MOVEMENT W
NEARLY STATIONARY
it would be fun as a retrospective to go back to the archives and dig up and relive some posts from this season and see who had it right and who was very, very wrong. Coming to mind was Ike...with many respected posters refusing to believe it would cross Cuba.
Quoting pottery:
Kman, dry from end Dec to june. But this year it rained right through to the first week of March. So last dryseason was short, but intense....


It seems like the seasons are mixed up of late. This year the dry season here lasted all the way to June. So much so that I only got 3 mangos from my Valencia tree !
.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
it would be fun as a retrospective to go back to the archives and dig up and relive some posts from this season and see who had it right and who was very, very wrong. Coming to mind was Ike...with many respected posters refusing to believe it would cross Cuba.


some of the posts were deleted for this year... : (
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
T.C.F.A.
TD/18L/R
EST.POS.
80.1W/11.2N
MOVEMENT W
NEARLY STATIONARY


Does that mean it's a td?
Looks like were on Rene Alert.
I was thinking of StormW and I think CCHS
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
it would be fun as a retrospective to go back to the archives and dig up and relive some posts from this season and see who had it right and who was very, very wrong. Coming to mind was Ike...with many respected posters refusing to believe it would cross Cuba.


Not to sound self-important, but... I thought Ike was going to hit TX the whole time... but not that it was going be in the Caribbean at one point though.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I was thinking of StormW and I think CCHS


Then you can just forget post #805 ;P
See what happens if I leave for a minute? Something pops up for a Thanksgiving surprise.
Personally, from my obs. of the trees and the leaf fall from some of them already, I am expecting an early start to the dry season here this year...
Also, the temps have already begun to drop, and the overall humidity as well. I was on the north coast today, and brisk winds from the N/E .
Dry season conditions. (but there were showers)
784 mom
Yeah, but it just frustrates me that we don't see a more interdiscliplinary approach to planning a future.
Dollars spent on parallel universes, life in other galaxies and such. Seems to me that diverting those dollars toward basic neccesities in the not too distant future would be wise.
I agree Drak...no one is perfect...but some of the bloggers were more adamant than others...to the point of being obnoxious...without looking at the reasoning of the other camp.
post what drak??? lol
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
post what drak??? lol


Exactly. What are we talking about.
This was a very interesting season because we had so many systems that appeared to be at TD or TS status but were not. One thing I learned early in the season was not to pay too much attention to convective blow ups.

After Dolly, I started to be more analytical about convergence and divergence as well as looking at surrounding data. Drak nailed Dolly when many , including myself, thought it would be classified. It was, eventually LOL
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:


Does that mean it's a td?
more like a hat trick
speaking of...as any one heard from storm w?
69 minutes to NHC update
Quoting kmanislander:
This was a very interesting season because we had so many systems that appeared to be at TD or TS status but were not. One thing I learned early in the season was not to pay too much attention to convective blow ups.

After Dolly, I started to be more analytical about convergence and divergence as well as looking at surrounding data. Drak nailed Dolly when many , including myself, thought it would be classified. It was, eventually LOL


Don't give me a yard I might take a mile LOL!
Hard luck on the mangos Kman. We had a MegaCrop. So much so, that one morning early I heard my wife making strange noises outside, only to see her being terrified by 4 or 5 enormous hogs that had escaped their coop, and were gorging on ripe mangos under one of the mangos in the garden. The dogs would have nothing to do with them.
The Muslim neighbour was boisterous in his reprimand, when they invaded his yard for his cherries........

edit, they were NOT my hogs....
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
LOL....there were some "unusual" times this season. We ought to come up with the top ten most outrageous or unusual posts that we remember. One of my most memorable was the person (forgot the name) who had to go to the hospital to visit his girlfriend who had been in a car wreck...but promised they would be back to post about a storm as soon as it was convienent.
b Tears are rolling down my face i'm laughing so hard -- that was a classic -- I mean it was like a comedy
822. Drakoen 1:53 AM GMT on November 24, 2008

LOL

We all had our moments but more importantly I would like to think we all had some fun.
Quoting kmanislander:
822. Drakoen 1:53 AM GMT on November 24, 2008

LOL

We all had our moments but more importantly I would like to think we all had some fun.


Yes. It's all water under the bridge... until next year LOL!
Same here with the mangos, my chickens would feast, gorge themselves on the ones I'd leave behind --I still have two left ..the very last two
823. pottery 1:54 AM GMT on November 24, 2008

LMAO !
Only 2 chickens left, Mom ??
Dolly
-- my favorite wave maker of the season -- her waves were lovely -- Ike - hands down the dirtiest, nastiest waves of the season.. even came w/ the stinging jellies & sea nettles - nasty, nasty storm
I thought it was pretty funny (as ridiculous as it may sound) when stormkat came in with all these different handles thinking he was able to fool us into thinking it was a different person. Also, it was pretty laughable at times when JFV would ask if a tropical wave off of Africa would hit his house. Unsuprisingly, they both got banned. lol
Well,I am going to sign off for tonight.

Quikscat this morning did not show a surface low down near Panama but we know how quickly things can change. At 10 N the low may have been mostly onshore.

No pass for this evening downloaded as yet.

Hopefully this will fizzle out.
Quoting pottery:
Only 2 chickens left, Mom ??
Heck no -- we have six plump ladies... we call them the girls!! They adore my son ... I'll never be w/out chickens again. We live in suburbia not rural -- so technically it's a no no.... but the neighbors are bribed w/fresh eggs... so it's all good
it was fun..and we learned...and I made a few friends (you know who you are)..next year I will be a little more wiser and more tolerant.
We did once have a night of "carnage"... and lost 6 hens -- it was early on. We didn't sink the fence and a racoon dug under and ... I had to pick up chicken parts -- then my kid and I didn't know what to do w/the bag... so we're driving around at night with , God, chicken parts in a hefty bag ....
Yes indeed. This season had some incredible moments.
The lonely damsel in distress with a hurricane approaching, trying to convince her stoned daddy to listen to reason.
Certain amazing revelations.
And storms that just would not follow instructions from the NHC or anyone.
LOL Mom. How would you have explained that bag of parts to the Cops ??
....and talking about parts, there is a sign on the highway near here, advertising

"Used Japanese Body Parts"

I think it refers to Nissan and Toyota, doors and fenders and such, but I dare not stop to ask.
jfv was a classic...every storm in the atlantic was going to hit dade county...plus he brought the bow tie back into vogue
Quoting pottery:
Yes indeed. This season had some incredible moments.
The lonely damsel in distress with a hurricane approaching, trying to convince her stoned daddy to listen to reason.
Certain amazing revelations.
And storms that just would not follow instructions from the NHC or anyone.


I missed that. that is really depressing... (hides in corner)
ROTFL Pottery !
they no longer we name storm if a storm comes from the Atlantic if we get Rene here in the Atlantic and it move in to the E. Pacific it will still be called Rene
Hurristat, the Damsel in distress turned out to be some freak making the whole thing up.........
Quoting surfmom:
We did once have a night of "carnage"... and lost 6 hens -- it was early on. We didn't sink the fence and a racoon dug under and ... I had to pick up chicken parts -- then my kid and I didn't know what to do w/the bag... so we're driving around at night with , God, chicken parts in a hefty bag ....


Maybe I should post the Sarah Palin turkey pardon video again lol...I actually got hate mail for posting that.
Quoting Drakoen:


Don't give me a yard I might take a mile LOL!
Ah, the Dolly discussions!!! I remember that like yesterday. . . . lol Particularly how Drak was so quietly adamant, while most of the rest of us kept railing against him . . . LOL

Like kman, I really started to get the concept of convergence and divergence after that - Dolly was a good teacher. I think we had some better calls after that point from a lot of people.

Oh, and let's not forget all the people who kept writing off the NHC forecasts. . . . lol
Quoting Tazmanian:
they no longer we name storm if a storm comes from the Atlantic if we get Rene here in the Atlantic and it move in to the E. Pacific it will still be called Rene


Last I checked they change the names.

Ex. 1996 Cesar (atlantic)- Douglas (pacific)
844 Goef - No NO no LOL - let that one slide
WPB, did you really get hate mail for that ?
Boggles the mind.
The rule is if it retains tropical storm status it retains its name. If it drops down to a depression or remnant low that regenerates it gets a new name.
This is in regard to the Atlantic-Pacific crossover storms.
SO does 96L have a chance of becoming Rene??
I'm out - mucho work tomorrow
Another sign around here says

"lawn cutting done here"

Think about the logistics involved there....
Quoting sullivanweather:
The rule is if it retains tropical storm status it retains its name. If it drops down to a depression or remnant low that regenerates it gets a new name.


I thought it was as long as the kept issuing advisories. So if it drops down to td rene but they still issue advisories then it would stay rene. But if they issue the last advisory then then it gets the new name.
yeppers...was called a liberal..(voted for Gov. Crist and Tom Rooney, bot Rep.)...i just found it ironic and funny when you pardon a turkey and do an interview in front of the machines that kill turkies..and yes...i am eating turkey for thanksgiving.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Ah, the Dolly discussions!!! I remember that like yesterday. . . . lol Particularly how Drak was so quietly adamant, while most of the rest of us kept railing against him . . . LOL

Like kman, I really started to get the concept of convergence and divergence after that - Dolly was a good teacher. I think we had some better calls after that point from a lot of people.

Oh, and let's not forget all the people who kept writing off the NHC forecasts. . . . lol


I know how to hold my ground and hold it well lol.
No, if a Storm maintains atleast TD status, with the LLC intact, the storm retains its name. If the LLC dissipates and then reforms then it gets a new name.
Quoting cycloone:
SO does 96L have a chance of becoming Rene??
The NHC gives it a 20-50%
Quoting pottery:
Hurristat, the Damsel in distress turned out to be some freak making the whole thing up.........


ooooohhh... :O
Quoting cycloone:
SO does 96L have a chance of becoming Rene??


Well, one thing we know. It's now moving north(1 MPH) and winds are at 35 miles per hour. All it needs to do is fully consolidate a center of circulation to be classified as a Tropical Depression. Tropical Disturbances(a.k.a. Invests) can approach TD and TS strength(remember Fay?). but rarely a hurricane(until forming that coc).
Amen, CybrTed (857). Ivan made a big loop over the southern US came back, redeveloped to a tropical storm again going into SW La. The NHC had a debate over keeping the same name, but that is how they did it.
Come on...this is ironic...

It still looks like an open trough on the quicksat. No evidence of a well-defined surface circulation.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
No, if a Storm maintains atleast TD status, with the LLC intact, the storm retains its name. If the LLC dissipates and then reforms then it gets a new name.


I was joking... I know that, but think how amusing it would be to have Alma-Arthur and Rene-Rachel in the same year. Alliterative names. Fun.
Ouch. (863) Gore doesn't seem to bother her. ;)
Pottery...and others...should I receive hate mail over this? Which I most likely will again....
LOL Hurristat. Changing the names of storms is one thing. Changing their gender is quite another. How can we be so insensitive? No wonder these things become hard to predict and all.
Quoting Drakoen:


I know how to hold my ground and hold it well lol.
Surely have to in this blog, or u may just get run over. . . LOL

It was an interesting summer.

Interestingly enough, while many storms toasted our edges, and the SE part got fried, no storms actually ran right over us. Guess that means my 1926 / 1928 analog years were a bit off. . . .
WPB. Of course not.
Did you create it? No.

Quoting pottery:
LOL Hurristat. Changing the names of storms is one thing. Changing their gender is quite another. How can we be so insensitive? No wonder these things become hard to predict and all.


I have two friends, one named Rachel, and then one whose name is extremely similar to Rene, and they are complete opposites, and then to lump them together in the same storm... (shivers)
Quoting BahaHurican:
Surely have to in this blog, or u may just get run over. . . LOL

It was an interesting summer.

Interestingly enough, while many storms toasted our edges, and the SE part got fried, no storms actually ran right over us. Guess that means my 1926 / 1928 analog years were a bit off. . . .


Well this season helped me learn a lot about everyone. I know whose real and whose fake in here. Things will be different next year... at least on my end.

No one in this blog has the power to run over me LOL!
l just thought it ironic..since a pardon...but knows what happens in real life..thank you
It would really be very interesting if we ended with Rene-Rachel, a ATL-EPAC crosser. Talk about ending as we began, only in reverse . . .
What are the chances that 96L will hit the OBX (NC) as a cat 2?
Quoting Drakoen:


Well this season helped me learn a lot about everyone. I know whose real and whose fake in here. Things will be different next year... at least on my end.

No one in this blog has the power to run over me LOL!


I have believed you since 2006, but I still thought Dolly would form earlier... And I learned something. My writing and thinking style is apparently very similar to an unmentioned troll (not going to mention the name), and when I first got on here I had to dispel rumours. But I eventually came into a better light and I have new friends. Thank you. (sends hug to everyone)
Quoting BahaHurican:
It would really be very interesting if we ended with Rene-Rachel, a ATL-EPAC crosser. Talk about ending as we began, only in reverse . . .


It's cyclic...
Come on Drak...Sarah Palin pardoned a turkey...then in her post interview...turkies were killed behind her.....bad move publicity wise?
That would indeed be very freaky, Baha.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
What are the chances that 96L will hit the OBX as a cat 2?


OBX???? If you mean north of Costa Rica, >1%
Quoting Drakoen:


Well this season helped me learn a lot about everyone. I know whose real and whose fake in here. Things will be different next year... at least on my end.

No one in this blog has the power to run over me LOL!
I'm sure we'll have some more [new] real and fake people next season . . .. seems we get a new crop every year LOL

Actually this was a good teaching season in a lot of ways, not least because there were so many "unusual" or record-setting storms. Also the season's track trend was a rather unusual one. I don't think we have too many seasons where the high hung so far SW that everything for 6 - 10 weeks ran over the greater Antilles . . .
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Come on Drak...Sarah Palin pardoned a turkey...then in her post interview...turkies were killed behind her.....bad move publicity wise?


I didn't even look at the video sorry... lol.
for the record...how old is drak?
Quoting CosmicEvents:
What are the chances that 96L will hit the OBX (NC) as a cat 2?


This made me laugh, as this can't be even remotely a serious question.

Regardless, the percentages of that actually happening are <.00000000001%.
Quoting Drakoen:


I didn't even look at the video sorry... lol.
Don't bother. It's a lot of yadayada from Palin and some gory turkey action in the background. As has been said ad infinitum, not a good choice of location, unless of course you WANT to shock the world. . . . kinda like snapping numerous pics of the alligater after the hurricane, then choosing the one where it's scarfing down someone's deceased pooch or kitty to post beside your news article on recovery efforts. . .
I hold no brief for Ms. Palin. But I am sure that she had no idea what was going on over her shoulder in view of the camera.
I have had some experience with media, and the Cameraman must have been thinking "please dont turn around to see what I am showing the world here."
I do believe that the video is a breach of media "good faith". Or it should be.
An abuse of a situation by the media involved.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Don't bother. It's a lot of yadayada from Palin and some gory turkey action in the background. As has been said ad infinitum, not a good choice of location, unless of course you WANT to shock the world. . . . kinda like snapping numerous pics of the alligater after the hurricane, then choosing the one where it's scarfing down someone's deceased pooch or kitty to post beside your news article on recovery efforts. . .


LOL. I can't stand Palin's voice. It feels so forced and sharp. Don't mind some gory turkey action lol.
Quoting Drakoen:


LOL. I can't stand Palin's voice. It feels so forced and sharp. Don't mind some gory turkey action lol.


mind you its from the huffington post...
Link

sounds exactly like something she would say, but she didn't
it's called ironic...that's all...
Isn't OBX Outer Banks, NC???

[scratching head]
WPB, I agree. I understand the irony too.

893. JRRP
Link
why here don´t show 96L ?
Quoting pottery:
I hold no brief for Ms. Palin. But I am sure that she had no idea what was going on over her shoulder in view of the camera.
I have had some experience with media, and the Cameraman must have been thinking "please dont turn around to see what I am showing the world here."
I do believe that the video is a breach of media "good faith". Or it should be.
An abuse of a situation by the media involved.
Read something earlier this week saying the news crew asked her if she wanted to move and she said "No worries". I think sometimes she forgets she's not playing to only a "hometown" audience who wouldn't find the turkey slaughter particularly out of the ordinary. And face it, people, 100 years ago, most people prepped their own birds, so they wouldn't have been shocked by the vid.
Amazing to see that map on 24th November. Practically Turkey Day!
My question was just one last chance this season to spoof the numerous posts we see every year when a storm's out there, 1000 miles from land.
.
Now watch...it's somehow gonna' happen...lol
Quoting CosmicEvents:
My question was just one last chance this season to spoof the numerous posts we see every year when a storm's out there, 1000 miles from land.
.
Now watch...it's somehow gonna' happen...lol


lol Okay I'm glad that wasn't a serious question.
893. JRRP

Yes, they show 96L.INVEST too!

http://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bin/tc_home.cgi
I got my first avocados on my tree this year. I understand this is pretty far north to go long enough without a freeze to get production. A freeze of significant duration kills the tree back to about 6', but it grows back fast.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
My question was just one last chance this season to spoof the numerous posts we see every year when a storm's out there, 1000 miles from land.
.
Now watch...it's somehow gonna' happen...lol


If it does it better bring snow. If it doesn't I'm going to hunt you down for jinxing me. LOL
Quoting pottery:
Yes indeed. This season had some incredible moments.
The lonely damsel in distress with a hurricane approaching, trying to convince her stoned daddy to listen to reason.
Certain amazing revelations.
And storms that just would not follow instructions from the NHC or anyone.


This was my first hurricane season living in LA. With that said, the aforementioned season nearly cost me all of my hair. Luckily I found this website and though the storms didn't want to follow the rules, listening in here made me feel a lot better and helped me make the decision on when to evacuate from Gustav. Thanks bunches from a newbie!
Hahaha I love that Palin video. She's totally oblivious, and it is so ironic.

Anyway, that 96L looks really good right now. I'm guessing Rene might actually be forming soon.
A broad low pressure (96L) located just north of Panama is producing large area of showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea and adjoining land areas. Showers and thundserstorm activity has continued to become better organized.. and a tropical deprssion could form in the next day or two if the system remains over waters as it drifts slowly westward.

Regardless of whether or not a tropical cyclone forms.. heavy rainfall and localized flooding will be possible over portions of Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua during the next couple of days.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST November 24 2008
=========================================

A low pressure area has formed over Sri Lanka and adjoining neighborhood. It is likely to concentrate into a depression during the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere in the north Indian Ocean
-------------------
Convective clouds are seen over south Andaman Sea, south Bay of Bengal,a nd southeast Arabian Sea.
Still getting heavily sheared, you can tell easily by the way convection is on its north side.

However, the shear is slowly relaxing.. was under 50 kts a couple of days ago. Now about 30, and the tendency is a lowering from 5-20kts in that area. So, it may even be favourable soon. As the current tracking doesn't suggest it'll move north, it won't encounter some of the stronger shear sitting over the Greater Antilles.

I definitely thought the season was done, guess I could be wrong... I'll order mine in advance with Subway BBQ sauce please. ;)
I may be wrong, but from the data I've looked at, and also per satellite imagery, I think whatever center there is (be it low or mid-level, what have you) is in the middle of the convective mass, southeast of that heavily sheared northern area of convection. Cyclonic turning seems evident there to me.
The QuikSCAT data for 96L is out, and there is no closed surface circulation as of yet -- not that I expected there to be, just saying. There is a bit of a wind shift, though.
It looks like 96L is getting a spin. If quikscat finds a well-defined surface circulation today, we will have TD 18.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
IN THE SW CARIBBEAN...A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED N OF
PANAMA NEAR 10N80W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS SURFACE LOW IS INTERACTING WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN TO RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN S OF 15N W OF 77W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND E NICARAGUA. THIS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
OVER THE LAST DAY...AND SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS
SLOWLY WESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
Didn't someone suggest yesterday that once this Twave got into the WCar things could get interesting?


...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 74W S OF 17N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION COINCIDING WITH THIS WAVE. A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE COINCIDES WITH THIS WAVE BASED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. ALSO...UPPER AIR TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS
FOR CURACAO...LOCATED IN THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES NEAR
12N69W...RECENTLY DEPICTS VEERING OF THE MEAN LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW
FROM NE TO SE...SUGGESTING THAT THIS WAVE HAS LIKELY MOVED W OF
CURACAO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 16N. THIS WAVE IS
BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1007 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 10N80W...WHICH IS
DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE.
Gotta go. . . work :o(. . .

Have a great day, all!
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
330 AM EST MON NOV 24 2008


THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1007 MB LOW CENTER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
NEAR THE PANAMA COAST HAS BEEN DEEMED TO BE A POSSIBLE TROPICAL
CYCLONE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 72 HOURS ON THE WIND WAVE CHARTS.
THE T/CI NUMBERS FROM THE TAFB ARE 1.0/1.0 CURRENTLY. STAY TUNED.
NORTHEASTERLY 20 KT WINDS START OFF EVERYWHERE WEST OF 66W...
SHRINKING IN SIZE TO BE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 65W AND 77W AFTER
24 HOURS...AND BECOMING AN AREA OF ONLY 15 KT TO 20 KT WINDS
SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 64W AND 79W ANOTHER 12 HOURS TO 18 HOURS
AFTER THAT TIME. THE SEA HEIGHTS IN THAT AREA DURING THE SAME
TIME PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM 8 FT TO 12 FT. THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY ALONG 75W/76W WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY WHATEVER
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW THAT MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1007 MB
PANAMA LOW PRESSURE CENTER.



Photobucket

Trends continue
i think we're getting a TS soon
It's looking that way...regardless of the shear.
What an interesting season.

don't we know it
well gotto go
918. JRRP
GFDL
Link
Quoting JRRP:
GFDL
Link


Bizarre run.
Morning, Checking to see what 96L has done through the night --
921. JRRP
000
ABNT20 KNHC 241145
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST MON NOV 24 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
ADJACENT LAND AREAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
OVER WATER. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
okay we got the tickets, boards, place to stay, my buddy's son got his four wheel dieseled up ready to go and now 96l. the roads getting to the vacation home in nicaraqua are dirt and these roads can turn into mud pie. i only take one surf vacation a yr 96 could make a mess of it. dry season was suppose to start a couple wks ago. have a good day
Quoting JRRP:
Link


Seems Costa Rica has bought the Tampa-Jacksonville Bubble... Weird runs. GFDL scares me more, with the intensity... and there's only been two other R's used. Roxanne and Rita, both of which were retired.
God Morning from Coastal N.C.
30 F..clear skies..calm winds and a forecast high of 61... nice fall day!
Morning everyone - 41*F in Macon this morning, rain on the way coming out of the NW, already south of Atlanta.
Good morning everyone.....
928 - TampaSpin - looks like something I had in my garage yesterday!!
Quoting RTLSNK:
928 - TampaSpin - looks like something I had in my garage yesterday!!

Did you kill it ???
looks like something I had in my garage yesterday!!


Bwahahahaha!

Looks familiar to me too!!
SFWMD still doesn't have any models up on 96...Gonna try to do the dreaded X-Mas shopping today.
930 - MissNadia - Let me explain it this way, I keep a large broom by the back door going into my garage so I can grab it as I go down the two steps into the garage if I see a large wolf spider, if its close to one of the three doors I hit the auto button and sweep it out into the driveway, if it jumps or runs toward me, then it gets whacked!!
The CLP5 (climo) model can't be wrong every time, or else it wouldn't be climo would it? hmmm?
I just updated my blog....and played some Rock for my Rock friends including me.....:)

TampaSpins Weather Blog Link
NEW BLOG
Yep its an Ike!