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Winter forecast for the U.S.; Typhoon Mirinae threatens the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:18 PM GMT on October 28, 2009

Expect a warmer than average winter in the north central U.S., and cooler than average over the Southeast U.S., according the latest winter forecast issued last Thursday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Wetter than average conditions are likely from Texas across the Gulf Coast and across the Southeastern U.S., with California also more likely than not to get increased precipitation. Those are the temperature patterns observed about 60% of the time in the U.S. during an El Niño event. As I discussed in yesterday's post, El Niño--the periodic warming of the equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean that occurs every 2 - 7 years--has just crossed the threshold from weak to moderate, meaning that that ocean temperatures are 1.0 - 1.5°C above average along the Equator off the Pacific coast of South America. Moderate El Niño conditions are expected to continue through the winter months of December - February, with some climate forecast models predicting intensification into a strong El Niño. The presence of all that warm water alters the path of the jet stream, affecting the winter weather across a large portion of the globe. In particular, the southern branch of the jet stream--called the subtropical jet--is expected to intensify, bringing increased cloudiness and storminess along its usual path, from south Texas, across the Gulf Coast, through Florida, and into South and North Carolina. The increased cloudiness typically leads to cooler temperatures and more rainfall across the entire Southeastern U.S., especially Florida and South Texas. This should give significant drought relief to the South Texas.

The heat in the Eastern Pacific Ocean during an El Niño winter makes for more intense mid-latitude low pressure systems off the U.S. west coast. As a result, these storms are able to pump abnormally warm air into western Canada, Alaska and the extreme northern portion of the contiguous United States. With this warm air typically comes drier than normal conditions. With the forecast for Vancouver, Canada--home to the February 12 - 28 2010 Winter Olympics this winter--calling for warmer and drier conditions than average, lack of snow may be a problem for some of the venues. If the El Niño manages to strengthen to the strong category (greater than 1.5°C), California will most likely experience much increased precipitation, and the North Central U.S. will see winter temperatures 3 - 6°F above average. NOAA maintains a web page that shows the typical U.S. temperature and precipitation patterns for any season for historical EL Niño and La Niña events. Golden Gate Weather takes the idea a step further, and separates the effects by whether it is a weak, moderate, or strong El Niño.

How good is this forecast?
Not all El Niño winters follow the usual pattern. For instance, the El Niño winter of 2004 - 2005 had above-average temperatures over the entire U.S., and drier than average conditions across Florida, which are the opposite of the typical pattern observed during most El Niño winters (Figures 1 and 2). There are other natural variations in the weather and climate, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) that can act to counteract or re-enforce the typical El Niño pattern. In addition, the climate is changing due to human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases, and its possible that what we've come to expect an El Niño winter to be like based on past history will no longer be true as often. It is likely the dramatic loss of arctic sea ice in recent years is already significantly affecting precipitation and temperature patterns during winter, and that the patterns we expect to see during El Niño winters are now changing to a new mode. I'll discuss the possibilities in a future post.


Figure 1. Wintertime (December - February) temperatures for the U.S. over the past nine years. The past three winters with El Niño conditions (yellow highlighted years) were 2003, 2005, and 2007. The 2003 El Niño was moderate strength, and 2005 and 2007 were weak. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Figure 2. Wintertime (December - February) precipitation for the U.S. over the past nine years. The past three winters with El Niño conditions (yellow highlighted years) were 2003, 2005, and 2007. The 2003 El Niño was moderate strength, and 2005 and 2007 were weak. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Philippines prepare for Typhoon Mirinae
Category 2 Typhoon Mirinae continues to trek westward towards the Philippine Islands, but appears to have leveled out in intensity. Latest infrared satellite loops show a large, well organized cloud pattern, but an eye is not evident, and the areal extent, organization, and temperature of the cloud tops has not changed much over the past six hours. Satellite estimates of Mirinae's intensity have held steady over the past twelve hours. Wind shear is a moderate 15 knots, and the ocean temperatures are very warm, 29°C. These warm waters extend to great depth, and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) is 80 - 100 kJ/cm^2 along Mirinae's entire path to the Philippines. Values of TCHP in excess of 90 kJ/cm^2 are frequently associated with rapid intensification. With wind shear expected to remain in the low to moderate range over the next three days, intensification of Mirinae into a major Category 3 or higher typhoon before its expected landfall at 06 UTC October 31 on Luzon Island is a good possibility.


Figure 4. Mirinae on October 27, 2009, as a tropical storm with 55 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss, and the the Caribbean is dominated by dry air and high wind shear. However, the extreme Southwestern Caribbean near the coast of Panama is expected to gradually moisten early next week, and several recent runs of the GFS and NOGAPS models suggested that a tropical depression could form in the Southwest Caribbean off the coast of Panama 7 - 8 days from now.

Next post
In tomorrow's port, I'll discuss the impact of El Niño on wintertime tornado activity in Florida, plus have an update on the Philippines typhoon, and the latest model predictions of a possible tropical depression in the Caribbean next week.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting tornadodude:


haha well it is for my English 106 class, we have to write about a local issue in the West Lafayette area, so I chose the various construction projects here, and how they are annoying LOL

AHHH, I see! That should work very well for you. Back at U.Md., my old "beau" wrote on the new really annoying speed bumps around town. Here they sometimes call them speed "humps." He wrote it totally straight.

The professor read the article aloud...and with all the "humps" the class was rolling. An "older" student (prob. my age now) was laughing so hard she was crying.

Boyfriend was totally embarrassed; shouldn't have been. It was a huge hit.

Hope your is a hit, too, though maybe not in the same way...but it's a good topic.

So I'm going to stop diverting you, and this time I'm really going. Thanks for the conversation!

Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

AHHH, I see! That should work very well for you. Back at U.Md., my old "beau" wrote on the new really annoying speed bumps around town. Here they sometimes call them speed "humps." He wrote it totally straight.

The professor read the article aloud...and with all the "humps" the class was rolling. An "older" student (prob. my age now) was laughing so hard she was crying.

Boyfriend was totally embarrassed; shouldn't have been. It was a huge hit.

Hope your is a hit, too, though maybe not in the same way...but it's a good topic.

So I'm going to stop diverting you, and this time I'm really going. Thanks for the conversation!



hahaha we have the same signs here! and there are plenty of jokes that go around about them like, "the girls at this corner...." etc. haha you get the point, alright, you have a goodnight, get some sleep, it has been a pleasure talking to you, as always (:

goodnight all
I'll leave this link for y'all to check out. pretty impressive line of storms, not severe, but plenty of rain I'm sure. Storms
Quoting Babsjohnson:
In the Denver area, it is not the intensity of the snow, but the persistence. Over a foot of snow has fallen over much of the metro area as of posting this. The micro climate data shows two feet of snow in localized areas. This is one of the earliest records that I can find.

Hi, I lived in Littleton, CO, for a couple years. My son was born at Swedish Hospital.
One thing about snow there, though, is that it can be really nice the next day. We'd be out in a sweatshirt shoveling and it would be sunny, and the snow would be melting.
I hope it won't be as tough a winter as this fall has started out...but the caterpillars do have the thickest coat I've ever seen here (real scientific, right).
Hello, everyone (well, whoever may be here...)
Don't discount old wives tales...woolier caterpillars, fuzzier squirrels...all of these things point to an early and cold winter

Awake, you have a WUMail
Oh, I forgot more acorns than usual
Meanwhile In The Swamp...

It wa 70 at midnight. AC blasting.

Orange, Texas (Airport)
Updated: 11 min 54 sec ago
74 °F Overcast
Humidity: 88%
Dew Point: 71 °F
Wind: 13 mph from the ESE
Wind Gust: 20 mph

FOR TONIGHT...OVERRUNNING RAINS WILL BEGIN AS THE WARM FRONT TRAVELS
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE RUNNING FROM
15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
. PASSING SHORTWAVES ALOFT...TRAVELING
ALONG THE JET CORE...MAY SET OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF WARM FRONT

FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A PROBLEM. THE FORECAST PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE RUNNING OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. HEAVY RAIN
WILL PERSIST...DESPITE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS THE LINEAR FRONTAL
CONVECTION TRANSITIONS TO A HEAVY STRATIFORM RAIN.

ADEQUATE SLANTWISE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
STRATIFORM RAIN. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE RELEASED BY ENHANCED LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHEAST-TEXAS JETSTREAK
Quoting RobustIncoherence:
Hello, everyone (well, whoever may be here...)


Hey, and hey homeless (:


sorry all, but I have some sleep to get, have a great night!
508. SOUTHEAST-TEXAS JETSTREAK

LOL
Quoting tornadodude:


Hey, and hey homeless (:


sorry all, but I have some sleep to get, have a great night!


NP. Hi Matt, all. Having computer problems anyway. Just thought I'd give a quick gripe about the weather. Lol. Good night all. :)
Quoting homelesswanderer:


NP. Hi Matt, all. Having computer problems anyway. Just thought I'd give a quick gripe about the weather. Lol. Good night all. :)


goodnight xD
Quoting RobustIncoherence:
Oh, I forgot more acorns than usual

YES! We HAVE seen SO many; many neighbors have remarked on that in passing. So that means a cold winter?

WU mail returned.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

YES! We HAVE seen SO many; many neighbors have remarked on that in passing. So that means a cold winter?

WU mail returned.


Per my grandad that's a sure sign...that and really furry squirrels (we'd do a little squirrel hunting when I was young and he was still with us)
modified in order to try to avoid a ban (:
515. I leave to write an e-mail and he's making trouble again. I just know it had something to do with squirrels or beavers.

514, 515, I don't have a gun because I might use it. My loved ones are glad. (joking, really, joking)

I said I was going to sleep about maybe 200 posts back? It's always too much fun; I'm such a party grandma. Night guys; hopefully you're already in dream land.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
TYPHOON MIRINAE (T0921)
15:00 PM JST October 29 2009
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Mirinae (960 hPa) located at 15.8N 130.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The typhoon is reported as moving west at 15 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Storm-Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
=================
200 NM from the center in north quadrant
120 NM from the center in south quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 15.5N 125.3E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 15.5N 120.8E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 15.4N 115.0E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
Japan Meteorological Agency

DEVELOPED LOW, FORMER LUPIT (T0920)
52.0ºN 170.0ºE - 974 hPa

SUBJECT: Developed Low In Sea East Of Kamchatka Peninsula
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Typhoon "SANTI" continued moving towards Central Luzon.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #4
===============================
At 5:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Santi (Mirinae) located at 15.8ºN 129.9ºE or 800 km east of Baler, Aurora has 10 minute sustained winds of 150 km/h (80 kts) with gustiness up to 185 km/h (100 kts).

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #2 (60-100 km/h winds)

Luzon Region
-----------
1.Aurora
2.Northern Quezon
3.Polillo Island

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 km/h winds)

Luzon Region
----------
1.Isabela
2.Ifugao
3.Quirino
4.Benguet
5.Nueva Vizcaya
6.Pangasinan
7.Tarlac
8.Nueva Ecija
9.Pampanga
10.Bulacan
11.Rizal
12.Rest of Quezon
13.Camarines Norte
14.Camarines Sur
15.Catanduanes

Additional Information
======================
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 are advised to be on alert against storm surges and big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
ike wheres that cold front? gezz its unusually warm this fall in e cent florida. almost broke about 20 days worth of records this yr
Hey leftovers were are you at in fl? I'm in Zephyrhills
523. IKE
Quoting leftovers:
ike wheres that cold front? gezz its unusually warm this fall in e cent florida. almost broke about 20 days worth of records this yr


Should cool off slightly in your area by early next week.


Don't forget...set those clocks back Sunday morning or before retiring Saturday night...as daylight savings time ends.

.............................................

32 days
17 hours
24 minutes and thankfully, it will officially be over.....


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
Good morning...
Morning Ike, Don't know if you saw last week. but You were dead on about the weather that was moving on the west coast of fl last weekend. I think we need to call you the COLD FRONT MAN thanks again John
Quoting leftovers:
ike wheres that cold front? gezz its unusually warm this fall in e cent florida. almost broke about 20 days worth of records this yr


This has been one of the most felt El Nino years since I've been living here in CFL. On top of that no even enough rain if any. Everything has mostly stayed to the N over the Panhandle.

Definitely wondering how the real WX is going to reveal itself as we get into Winter/Spring for us here in CFL.
527. IKE
Quoting severstorm:
Morning Ike, Don't know if you saw last week. but You were dead on about the weather that was moving on the west coast of fl last weekend. I think we need to call you the COLD FRONT MAN thanks again John


You mean about the rain diminishing....yeah, I saw that.
cocoa bch is our home it will be nice to get those clocks turned back didnt the ex admin. change it a few yrs ago? the clocks would of been turned back a couple wks ago
529. IKE
Quoting leftovers:
cocoa bch is our home it will be nice to get those clocks turned back didnt the ex admin. change it a few yrs ago? the clocks would of been turned back a couple wks ago


That's true.

It'll be getting dark here about 4:30 to 4:45 in the afternoon.
another sign of el nino http://xcelpro.xcelwetsuits.com/2009/?news_id=66 solid back to back northwest swells for the north shore of hi. kind of early
g'morning (:

LOL :)
The fog is so thick in North central Florida this morning that it tastes like cloud. The forecast doesn't even call it fog, it calls it Mist. I like the distiction.

Good morning, suspicious looking area in SW caribbean again.
Humidity: 94%

Blah! You'll need a knife to get to your car this morning.
535. IKE
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW HAS MOVED TO 15N78W ABOUT 150 NM
TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA. THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST FROM THE 15N78W CYCLONIC CENTER IS ABOUT 180 NM WIDE
AS IT PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES...AND
BEYOND THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. IT APPEARS THAT
THIS CYCLONIC CENTER MAY BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE TROUGH DURING
THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING NORTHWARD
AS THE TROUGH NARROWS IN WIDTH AS COMPARED TO SIX HOURS AGO.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 11N76W NEAR THE COLOMBIA COAST TO
12N76W 12N79W 13N79W. THE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW IS MUCH GREATER
IN COVERAGE TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA...FROM 11N TO CUBA BETWEEN
HAITI AND CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM PARTS OF
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND COSTA RICA...PANAMA...COLOMBIA...
AND VENEZUELA IS PUSHED NORTHWARD ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF 15N78W
CYCLONIC CENTER AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH.
maybe the Eddie will go this winter http://live.quiksilver.com/2009/bigwave/ there has not been competition for 4 yrs
Yes Ike, you had that right on. and Wxlogic, I could not agree more about the weather in central fl. I'm on the west coast and have notice the same thing.
539. P451
Good Morning.

Shear City.



24 Hours
Good morning,afternnon, evening or night depepending on where you live. EDT here nice 52F 94%H. Going to be a beautiful day and I will be here in front of the monitor again.
541. P451
24HR WV Loop



Quoting IKE:
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW HAS MOVED TO 15N78W ABOUT 150 NM
TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA. THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST FROM THE 15N78W CYCLONIC CENTER IS ABOUT 180 NM WIDE
AS IT PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES...AND
BEYOND THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. IT APPEARS THAT
THIS CYCLONIC CENTER MAY BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE TROUGH DURING
THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING NORTHWARD
AS THE TROUGH NARROWS IN WIDTH AS COMPARED TO SIX HOURS AGO.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 11N76W NEAR THE COLOMBIA COAST TO
12N76W 12N79W 13N79W. THE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW IS MUCH GREATER
IN COVERAGE TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA...FROM 11N TO CUBA BETWEEN
HAITI AND CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM PARTS OF
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND COSTA RICA...PANAMA...COLOMBIA...
AND VENEZUELA IS PUSHED NORTHWARD ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF 15N78W
CYCLONIC CENTER AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH.
I was looking yesterday on the caribbean/w.atlantic vapor loop and saw cyclonic flow but it was the dry air if I was reading the loop correctly. I am clueless to what that is.
Before they changed it,the clocks would have been changed last weekend,the rest of the world is on standard time this week.
544. P451
Quoting NEwxguy:
Before they changed it,the clocks would have been changed last weekend,the rest of the world is on standard time this week.


They need to simply do away with it entirely. Did you know the Mountain time zone doesn't change? Did you know that worldwide only a few major cities change?

Why anyone bothers with this crap is beyond logic!

We are a 24/7 corporate world so the argument of trying to conserve energy is moot.

The farmers wake up when the sun rises and pack it in when it sets so the argument of giving them more time to operate is not just moot but insane.

I forget the third supposedly legitimate reason for doing Daylight Savings Time.

The sad thing is we need to just STAY on EDT and throw out EST. *for us in the east of course*.

I don't understand why they bothered to change the time frame for doing this - if they were going to do that then just ABOLISH THIS ABSOLUTE NONSENSE!!!!



Good morning, All.
I just got the following response from one of my senators, based on Dr. Master's call for us to write in about NOAA funding. Not surprisingly, a Senator representing Florida believes we should be doing more for Hurricance research and support. :)

-----
Thank you for contacting me regarding S. Amendment 2666, which would cut funding for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) by $172 million. I oppose this amendment, because a budget cut of that magnitude would severely impact NOAA's ability to prepare the United States for hurricanes, thus undermining public safety and the public good.

Since 2003, hurricanes and other tropical cyclones have caused more than 2,000 deaths in the United States. These extreme weather events also cause significant economic devastation. Insured losses average more than $5.2 billion per year in the U.S. A recent study of hurricane-related damages over the last century suggests that economic losses will double every ten years. With more than 50 percent of the U.S. population living within 50 miles of the coast, and with 180 million people visiting the coast annually, the risks to life and property are growing. Clearly, there is an urgent need for substantial improvements in hurricane forecasting and planning--not budget cuts.

NOAA serves a vital role in forecasting and tracking severe weather patterns. Cuts to its budget would stall NOAA's Hurricane Forecasting Improvement Project Plan and the agency's plans for a new system to replace the QuikSCAT, an aging satellite used to monitor ocean surface wind and waves.

I have worked for years to ensure that Florida and the U.S. are better protected and prepared for hurricanes. I will continue to fight for funding for NOAA that ensures our safety in the face of severe and deadly storms. Please do not hesitate to contact me in the future with your thoughts.
Sincerely,
Senator Bill Nelson

-----

Quoting P451:


They need to simply do away with it entirely. Did you know the Mountain time zone doesn't change? Did you know that worldwide only a few major cities change?

Why anyone bothers with this crap is beyond logic!

We are a 24/7 corporate world so the argument of trying to conserve energy is moot.

The farmers wake up when the sun rises and pack it in when it sets so the argument of giving them more time to operate is not just moot but insane.

I forget the third supposedly legitimate reason for doing Daylight Savings Time.

The sad thing is we need to just STAY on EDT and throw out EST. *for us in the east of course*.

I don't understand why they bothered to change the time frame for doing this - if they were going to do that then just ABOLISH THIS ABSOLUTE NONSENSE!!!!





I thought everyone knew that it was to allow more time for golf after work.
544. yes, you forgot the third and most important reason..."we've always done it this way." LOL
548. IKE
Quoting pearlandaggie:
544. yes, you forgot the third and most important reason..."we've always done it this way." LOL


Are You Sure Hank Done It This Way?

RIP Waylon.
when bill nelson was a council man here in cocoa bch one of my associates at work told me that that guy wont be happy until he's president my buddy had a vendetta against him then said he'll he will do what ever it takes to get there. sen nelson did not do nothing special here but he knows how to ride the wave of popularity.
Good evening everyone,
OMG please don't let this happen. Typhoon Mirinae will go right over my wife and I's house in the Philippines. Damn Damn Damn Damn Damn :-(

About two years ago a man on the radio said he thought DST was a bad idea because it could mess up the entire plant world by having an extra day of sunlight. He said that we would add about 30 hours a month of extra daylight which could cause and over-growth of plants and disrupt the growing season. I don't think he quite got the point. In Norway and Sweden, it doesn't much matter. In summer it stays light until almost midnight. In the winter, we only have a few hours of sunlight. By the time we changed our clocks back and forth, they would resemble fans!!!!
Actually the third reason I have always heard was they didn't want the kids waiting at the bus stop in the morning in darkness.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Good evening everyone,
OMG please don't let this happen. Typhoon Mirinae will go right over my wife and I's house in the Philippines. Damn Damn Damn Damn Damn :-(



Is she there now Aussie? Hope her family is being informed. I thought it would weaken a little more. I sure it will be OK.
Quoting NEwxguy:
Actually the third reason I have always heard was they didn't want the kids waiting at the bus stop in the morning in darkness.


Actually, I liked waiting for the bus in the dark. This way, nobody could see us smoking and report us to our parents.
Quoting Grothar:


Is she there now Aussie? Hope her family is being informed. I thought it would weaken a little more. I sure it will be OK.

This is my place compared to the storm track on GE.
Quoting Grothar:


Is she there now Aussie? Hope her family is being informed. I thought it would weaken a little more. I sure it will be OK.

not there yet, looks to make landfall Saturday morning.
Hi Aussie,
Looks like a direct hit.
Are you insured?
Looks like maybe a CAT 2 or most CAT 3 which is nothing to trifle with.

Dr. Masters thinks cyclogenesis may occur in the SW Caribbean. If not now, when?
Quoting Chicklit:
Hi Aussie,
Is this the Phillipines?
Looks like a direct hit.
Are you insured?
Looks like maybe a CAT 2 or most CAT 3 which is nothing to trifle with.

Dr. Masters thinks cyclogenesis may occur in the SW Caribbean. If not now, when?

Yes that's my place in the Philippines
Its built very strong with solid steel bracing from the roof to down under the floor, insurance, that's something we can't get there in Philippines. It's probably the strongest house in the village
Quoting Chicklit:
Hi Aussie,
Looks like a direct hit.
Are you insured?
Looks like maybe a CAT 2 or most CAT 3 which is nothing to trifle with.

Dr. Masters thinks cyclogenesis may occur in the SW Caribbean. If not now, when?


when pigs fly but then again there likely a new blog/
Quoting AussieStorm:

This is my place compared to the storm track on GE.


wow!!! literally a direct hit. Kinda funny in a scary way.
Quoting BrowardJeff:
Good morning, All.
I just got the following response from one of my senators, based on Dr. Master's call for us to write in about NOAA funding. Not surprisingly, a Senator representing Florida believes we should be doing more for Hurricance research and support. :)

-----
Thank you for contacting me regarding S. Amendment 2666, which would cut funding for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) by $172 million. I oppose this amendment, because a budget cut of that magnitude would severely impact NOAA's ability to prepare the United States for hurricanes, thus undermining public safety and the public good.

Since 2003, hurricanes and other tropical cyclones have caused more than 2,000 deaths in the United States. These extreme weather events also cause significant economic devastation. Insured losses average more than $5.2 billion per year in the U.S. A recent study of hurricane-related damages over the last century suggests that economic losses will double every ten years. With more than 50 percent of the U.S. population living within 50 miles of the coast, and with 180 million people visiting the coast annually, the risks to life and property are growing. Clearly, there is an urgent need for substantial improvements in hurricane forecasting and planning--not budget cuts.

NOAA serves a vital role in forecasting and tracking severe weather patterns. Cuts to its budget would stall NOAA's Hurricane Forecasting Improvement Project Plan and the agency's plans for a new system to replace the QuikSCAT, an aging satellite used to monitor ocean surface wind and waves.

I have worked for years to ensure that Florida and the U.S. are better protected and prepared for hurricanes. I will continue to fight for funding for NOAA that ensures our safety in the face of severe and deadly storms. Please do not hesitate to contact me in the future with your thoughts.
Sincerely,
Senator Bill Nelson

-----



Of course he does hes the democratic senator :P. Anyways that was a thought full response, if he wrote it himself.
Quoting AussieStorm:




Thank you for the few who are now folliwing the phillipenes storm.... I almost believe there's some higher power that is trying to destroy them. On the other hand there is the Trans-Siberian orchestra new album to counter act that. Idk if i'm banned for that. because there is still some hope because if they get through this they will be better for like next 12 months.