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Winston's Damage Highest in South Pacific History; Extreme February Warmth in Eurasia

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 3:19 PM GMT on February 29, 2016

The nation of Fiji is struggling to recover from the staggering blow Tropical Cyclone Winston delivered on February 20 when the mighty storm made landfall at Category 5 strength on multiple islands. The storm killed at least 42 people, making it the deadliest in Fiji history. Fiji's previous deadliest storm was Category 3 Cyclone Eric of 1985, which made a direct hit on the capital of Suva, killing 25. Cyclones rarely take many lives across the South Pacific, but the modest population of South Pacific islands means that even a relatively small death toll can have a major impact. Fortunately, Winston's human toll was not as large as it could have been. Several South Pacific cyclones since 1980 are known to have taken more lives than the confirmed total from Winston. The deadliest appears to be Cyclone Namu, which killed at least 150 people during its prolonged trek across the Solomon Islands in May 1986. Thanks to WU member skycycle for bringing other South Pacific cyclone tolls to our attention.


Figure 1. VIIRS infrared image of Tropical Cyclone Winston at 0057 UTC February 20, 2016. At the time, Winston was the strongest storm ever recorded in the Southern Hemisphere, with sustained winds of 185 mph. Koro Island (see damage photo below) is in the eye. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.


Figure 2. An example of how Category 5 winds can completely flatten human-built structures: Koro Island received a direct hit from Winston when the storm was at peak strength with 185 mph winds. Image credit: My Fijian Images and Jah Ray.

Winston the most destructive cyclone in South Pacific history
While many cyclones in the South Pacific have caused severe devastation, the roughly half-billion-dollar cost of Winston appears to be a record-setter for this region. Thousands of homes and businesses were destroyed by Winston, with northern and western regions of Fiji receiving catastrophic damage. The government of Fiji estimated on Thursday that the cost of the disaster would be at least $468 million, making it the costliest tropical cyclone in South Pacific history. The previous most costly cyclone in the South Pacific was just last year, when Category 5 Tropical Cyclone Pam tore through Vanuatu, causing $360 million in damage. According to insurance broker Aon Benfield, the previous costliest cyclone in Fiji was Tropical Cyclone Kina in January 1993, at $182 million (2016 USD) in damage. The next-highest damage total was from Cyclone Heta (2003), which inflicted about $150 million in damage (in 2004 US dollars) to American Samoa as well as Niue and Tonga. Fiji's Tropical Cyclone Evan of December 2012 was similar in cost, with damages estimated at $150 million (2016 USD).

Winston's damage is roughly 10% of Fiji's GDP--the type of economic blow that will take many years to recover from. To put this into a U.S. perspective, if the U.S. had a 10% hit to its GDP, that would be a roughly $1.7 trillion disaster, on par with 15 simultaneous Hurricane Katrinas. Unfortunately, insurance penetration in Fiji is only about 2%, making it difficult for people who lost everything to get back on their feet. At least 55,000 people--about 6% of Fiji's population--are in evacuation shelters. Most of the nation's resorts and tourist facilities have reopened, though, and tourism represents about 17% of Fiji's GDP. Another good sign of normalcy returning: schools opened today for the first time since the disaster.


Figure 3. Australian and New Zealand Defense Forces unload relief supplies on February 24, 2016 in Fiji to assist in Tropical Cyclone Winston relief. Image credit: Government of Fiji. Charities asking for donations for Fji cyclone relief include UNICEF, the Australian Red Cross, and Save the Children.


Video 1. The eyewall and eye of Tropical Cyclone Winston, as experienced by a volunteer for Think Pacific working to deliver a youth and sports program for rural school children in the village of Tuatua on Koro, Fiji.

Unprecedented February warmth in Eurasia
December 2015 and January 2016 were Earth's warmest months in recorded history (expressed as the departure of temperature from average), and record-smashing heat in February is making this month a threat to join the parade. Two northward extensions of subtropical heat--one in eastern Europe and one in central Asia--led to phenomenally mild temperatures for February in the last two weeks. At least a dozen countries set or tied their all-time records for February during the latter half of the month, according to international weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera:



Serbia, 26.6°C (79.9°F) at Knjazevac on Feb. 15
Montenegro, 27.8°C (82.0°F) at Ulcinj on Feb. 16
Romania, 26.0°C (78.8°F) at Patarlagele on Feb. 16 (tied record)
Turkey, 32.4°C (90.3°F) at Milas on Feb. 16
Albania, 28.6°C (83.5°F) at Qyteli Stalin on Feb. 16
Austria, 23.2°C (73.8°F) at Pottschach on Feb. 22 (tied record)
Slovakia, 20.3°C (68.5°F) at Bratislava Airport on Feb. 22
Uzbekistan, 30.1°C (86.2°F) at Termez on Feb. 25
Tajikistan, 29.7°C (85.5°F) at Isambaj on Feb. 25
Kyrgyzstan, 25.8°C (78.4°F) at Dzhalalabad on Feb. 25
Kazakhstan, 26.9°C (80.4°F) at Ciili on Feb. 25
Russia, 24.5°C (76.1°F) at Goriatchi Klioutch on Feb. 27
 
Not to be totally outdone, the midsection of North America had an impressively mild weekend, with temperatures between 55°F and 60°F setting daily records across southern Canada from Edmonton to Toronto. Top pick among the U.S. records: Bismarck, ND, where the 73°F high notched on Saturday was the state’s warmest for the entire month of February in 126 years of record-keeping, a full 41°F above Bismarck’s average high for the date of 32°F. Thanks to WU weather historian Chris Burt for catching this noteworthy statistic. Monthly record highs were also set in Mobridge, SD (73°F) and St. Cloud, MN (58°F), as noted by weather.com.
 
Happy Leap Day, everyone!


Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Hurricane Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

The models are trending more amplified with the late week system which could bring significant snowfall to the Mid-Atlantic.
Thanks Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson-
So the climate change beat goes on with the continuation of extreme heat.

I am concerned about the future of powerful hurricane activity in the Atlantic and what that would mean for residents living along the coastal areas.
Winter storm watch in effect for:
•City of Toronto

A snow storm is looking more likely for Southern Ontario Tuesday and Tuesday night.

A low pressure system developing over Texas today will head towards the Lower Great Lakes and is expected to spread an area of snow into Southern Ontario Tuesday and Tuesday night. This low will tap into moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and has the potential to intensify into a significant winter storm.

This type of Winter storm often has a swath of 15 to 30 cm of heavy snow associated with it. Freezing rain and ice pellets may also
be a problem as the storm centre gets close to the Lower Great
Lakes. Exact snowfall amounts and the possibility of ice pellets and freezing rain will depend upon the exact track of this developing storm.

Travellers should be prepared to alter plans accordingly as
driving conditions are likely to deteriorate significantly on
Tuesday.

The development and track of this storm is being monitored closely. Please refer to updated statements and local forecasts for further details as the event approaches.

Rapidly accumulating snow could make travel difficult over some locations. Visibility may be suddenly reduced at times in heavy snow. Poor weather conditions may contribute to transportation delays. There may be a significant impact on rush hour traffic in urban areas.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.
thanks for update
We actually had a record low maximum with a high of only 65 degrees on Saturday in Naples, Fl.
Quoting 1. Drakoen:

The models are trending more amplified with the late week system which could bring significant snowfall to the Mid-Atlantic.



And a. Major pattern changes in the W and may be more severe weather for the mid W and plain states
Quoting 1. Drakoen:

The models are trending more amplified with the late week system which could bring significant snowfall to the Mid-Atlantic.
I thought they were trending with a more suppressed event.
Thanks guys...Koro Island damage looks almost unsurvivable.......Terrible.
Health
Australia sends relief ship to Fiji in wake of Cyclone Winston
on Sunday, 28 Feb 2016. Posted in Home



Image: Fijian woman Kalisi holds her son Tuvosa, 3, as she sits on a bed in the remnants of her home damaged by Cyclone Winston in the Rakiraki District of Fiji's Ra province, February 24, 2016. REUTERS/UNICEF-Sokhin

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Australia is sending a relief ship to Fiji to assist in the recovery effort after Cyclone Winston, the worst ever recorded in the southern hemisphere, tore through the island nation last Saturday, as the sheer scale of the disaster becomes clearer.

The death toll from the category five storm remains at 42, according to a statement from Fiji's National Disaster Management Office, although that figure is expected to rise.

Many communities remain without water and it could be weeks before electricity is restored, the statement said.

The scale of damage and loss is becoming apparent to authorities and aid organizations as communications are being gradually restored throughout the archipelago.

UNICEF spokeswoman Alice Clements said her organization now estimates that more than 62,000 Fijians are homeless and living in evacuation shelters.

"People are very resilient here and have got a solution to every problem, but there are just so many people who don't have any options," Clements said.

"As hard as we are working and as hard as the government is working the scale of this is going to outrun us all unless we get help," she said.

Australia's military vessel, HMAS Canberra, left on Friday and was expected to arrive in Fijian waters early next week.

It was carrying three helicopters and 60 tonnes of supplies, including water purification equipment and medical supplies.

The ship's departure came as Australia's foreign ministry said on Twitter that the first helicopter load of Australian aid had reached the hard-hit remote island of Koro on Saturday.

The Asian Development Bank's South Pacific director, Rob Jauncey, told Radio New Zealand that Fiji's economy would face losses of "tens of millions of dollars" because of the destruction of sugar crops and an expected drop in tourism.
The effects of Cyclone Winston were being felt on the eastern coast of Australia, more than 2,600 km (1,615 miles) southwest of Fiji, on Saturday.

Australia's Bureau of Meteorology issued dangerous surf warnings and authorities closed many beaches in the states of Queensland and New South Wales as swells of up to 6 meters (20 feet) generated by Cyclone Winston battered the coast.

(Reporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Tom Hogue)

Copyright 2015 Thomson Reuters.
Thanks Jeff and Bob. Looking back on the track for Winston, it really was a worst case scenario for Fiji how it looped back around and strengthened right before slamming into the islands.



This image is just crazy to me. I can't imagine being on that island and going through the eyewall and all the destruction that comes with it, to entering the eye and the relative calm, only to look around and be completely surrounded by this monster storm and the other side of the eyewall bearing down on you.
Has anyone here been in a situation like that? What would being on the ground in the eye of a storm like that feel like? Especially knowing you were about to go through the eyewall again.
With the mild weather we have had this winter in my locale (seems to happen during moderate to strong El nino's) I keep wondering if its going to rain much if at all this spring. I sure hope so.

Given the significant weather extremes we have seen I fear its going to be a very disastrous year in all aspects of weather.
Thanks fr the Updates...
Stay alert for any Tornado warnings this week....stay safe out there............................................. .........DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA...SOUTHWARD THROUGH PARTS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...IN A
CORRIDOR FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY...EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST ACTIVITY...IN ADDITION TO AT LEAST SOME
RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL.

...SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. RIDGING WITHIN A BELT OF WESTERLIES EMANATING FROM THE
MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC LIKELY WILL PERSIST NEAR THE PACIFIC
COAST...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE SUPPRESSED SOME BY ANOTHER IN SERIES OF
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES PROGRESSING INLAND AROUND ITS CREST...ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A PRECEDING IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
DIGGING TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...TO THE SOUTH
OF AN ELONGATING VORTEX CENTERED OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. WITHIN THIS
LATTER REGIME...ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
PIVOT AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BROADER
CIRCULATION...SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY...TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION.

THESE LATTER SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS HAVE BEEN A POINT OF
DISCREPANCY AMONG THE MODELS...AND A SOURCE OF SIZABLE SPREAD
WITHIN THE VARIOUS MODEL ENSEMBLE OUTPUT...THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS
REMAINS THE CASE...BUT GUIDANCE...IN GENERAL...DOES APPEAR TO BE
TRENDING TOWARD MAINTAINING THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
OF PACIFIC ORIGIN....EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OZARK PLATEAU...INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. IT ALSO IS APPEARING MORE PROBABLE THAT INCREASED
PHASING OR INTERACTION OF THIS FEATURE WITH THE IMPULSE DIGGING
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES MAY LEAD TO MORE SUBSTANTIVE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT. ALL OF THIS SEEMS TO POINT TO INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS....INTO THE APPALACHIANS.

...LOWER MS/TN/OH VALLEYS INTO APPALACHIANS...
IT STILL APPEARS THAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL REMAIN AT LEAST SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INLAND OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COASTAL
AREAS. HOWEVER...A PLUME OF INITIALLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE DURING THE
DAY...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND FIELDS.
THIS MAY INCLUDE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB FLOW STRENGTHENING TO
50-60+ KT ACROSS TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY AND PORTIONS OF ADJACENT STATES
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE A 90+ KT CYCLONIC...WESTERLY 500 MB JET
NOSES ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY SUPPORT ONE OR MORE
ORGANIZED LINES OR CLUSTERS OF STORMS ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
VALLEYS...PERHAPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
ACTIVITY RAPIDLY SPREADS TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING.

ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...WEAKER MID-LEVEL FORCING
MAY RESULT IN THE PERSISTENCE OF MORE DISCRETE STORMS. LOW-LEVEL
FLOW MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS AREAS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...BUT
INSTABILITY MAY BE A BIT GREATER...AND ACCOMPANIED BY PERHAPS AT
LEAST SOMEWHAT GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL.

...UPPER TEXAS COAST INTO LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS BECOMING MORE UNCERTAIN.
BUT IT STILL APPEARS THAT...IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY...FORCING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD
FRONT COULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH AT LEAST
SOME RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND GUSTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

..KERR.. 02/29/2016

Quoting 2. rmbjoe1954:

Thanks Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson-
So the climate change beat goes on with the continuation of extreme heat.

I am concerned about the future of powerful hurricane activity in the Atlantic and what that would mean for residents living along the coastal areas.
It will be the same as it has been, only now their are more people living on the coast of hurricane prone areas.
Slight error in the statistics...during the satellite-era, Cyclone Meli of 1979 was the deadliest in Fiji with 53 fatalities. Overall, there appears to have been a storm in March 1931 that claimed approximately 230 lives.

(Sorry for the triple post!)
Morning all, hope you all had a pleasant weekend. It's that time of year in South Dakota where the weather can't make up it's mind on which season it is. Saturday was gorgeous with a high temp of 63 tying the record set in 1895 according to the WU almanac. (I didn't get to enjoy it though as I spent most of my time on a bus back and forth from Minneapolis.) Sunday was much cooler and gloomier with wind and rain in the morning and overcast for most of the day.

Now today we're talking more snow, but it won't last long because the 7 day forecast is all over the map. I think I'll have my winter coat, rain jacket, and shorts all ready to go for what ever shows up.


Quoting 1. Drakoen:

The models are trending more amplified with the late week system which could bring significant snowfall to the Mid-Atlantic.


Just a heads up.... Western Region put together a page for side by side comparison of GFS and Parallel GFS.
22. bwi
Lots of warm air right behind the late week system though. If it snows, it won't last.
Our addition of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere is increasing the energy available to the Earth's great climate engine. It would seem inevitable that more energetic storms are one of the results.
24. JRRP
Niño 3.4 2.1ºC
The spring frogs were croaking in the ponds of the Kettle Moraine Forest in Wisconsin on Saturday. As a Floridian, I do not think that is normal for February in Wisconsin.


Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7429
Been here a whole year, Well, a Whole Leap Year....
Quoting 16. NativeSun:

It will be the same as it has been, only now their are more people living on the coast or hurricane prone areas.

no increased storm surge levels
with increased coastal erosions
and increased rainfall rates
along with deeper pressures
and higher winds

faster and faster
Quoting 16. NativeSun:

It will be the same as it has been, only now their are more people living on the coast or hurricane prone areas.


Citation needed.
Quoting 22. bwi:

Lots of warm air right behind the late week system though. If it snows, it won't last.

I guess its winter's last attempt to go out with a bang.Almost reminds me of March 2009 where it snowed...was cold for about 2 days after and then we shot up to temps in the 60's and 70's with the snow melting rapidly also in part thanks to the rising sun angle.
After an incredibly warm December, January and February were seasonably cold in the Mid Atlantic with no huge monthly departures.. January slightly below normal.. February looks to be slightly above, perhaps 1-1.5F.

Both January and February can get above 70F here and February occasionally gets above 80F but not this year.

All three months have had a few remarkably warm humid surges with Dec and February experiencing dewpoints over 60F and that is rare here. Not sure what to attribute that to other than the El Ninou induced unusually high temps and dewpoints persisting in the lower subtropics and upper tropics at our longitude, all winter and occasionally
getting drawn up here by midlatitude storms which are also stronger than in a typical year.
Quoting 29. washingtonian115:

I guess its winter's last attempt to go out with a bang.Almost reminds me of March 2009 where it snowed...was cold for about 2 days after and then we shot up to temps in the 60's and 70's with the snow melting rapidly also in part thanks to the rising sun angle.


March 2009 snow was accompanied by bitter (below freezing all day) cold. This won't be.

Starting to think a period like March 2012 could be in the works midmonth and if that happens I have 3" tomato plants ready to exploit it.
32. JRRP
A transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during late Northern Hemisphere spring
or early summer 2016, with a possible transition to La Nia conditions
during the fall.

Link
Quoting 31. georgevandenberghe:



March 2009 snow was accompanied by bitter (below freezing all day) cold. This won't be.

Starting to think a period like March 2012 could be in the works midmonth and if that happens I have 3" tomato plants ready to exploit it.

The bitter cold only lasted for a few days and then we were warm.
Quoting 26. PedleyCA:


Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7429
Been here a whole year, Well, a Whole Leap Year....
happy 1 year anniversary ped
Quoting 29. washingtonian115:

I guess its winter's last attempt to go out with a bang.Almost reminds me of March 2009 where it snowed...was cold for about 2 days after and then we shot up to temps in the 60's and 70's with the snow melting rapidly also in part thanks to the rising sun angle.
that's whats going to happen here the next few days lots of snow with cold then the warm up and rapid melt off

spring ahead soon
This is a Humanitarian Emergency.




Fiji: UNICEF steps up response as 'full picture' of Cyclone Winston's impact becomes clearer

REPORT from UN Children's Fund Published on 26 Feb 2016


26 February 2016 – As the full picture of the worst cyclone ever to hit Fiji becomes more apparent, the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) estimates that up to 120,000 children across the county may be badly affected.

UNICEF officials say that the trauma of the event itself must not be underestimated, and many children have been affected by varying degrees of loss, including the devastation of losing family or community members, the sadness of losing homes or belongings, and the danger of losing places of critical importance to their development, such as schools and health centres. In addition, there are many dangers at play in a post-emergency situation, such as increasing levels of stagnant water that are a breeding ground for diseases like diarrhoea.

“Children are often the most vulnerable during emergencies and UNICEF continues to support the Government of Fiji's efforts in addressing the needs of children,” said UNICEF Pacific Representative Karen Allen.

UNICEF Pacific's Joseph Hing, who travelled with the first shipment of emergency supplies to Koro Island, one of the areas worst affected by Tropical Cyclone Winston, said that “the damage to Koro Island is extensive and the scale of the destruction is overwhelming,” he said. “I spoke to countless people who have lost everything. Their lives have been turned utterly upside down.”

A grandmother, whose young grandson was nearly swept away by the storm surge, told him that “you can lose all your material belongings, but what's more important is our lives,” he said.

The geographic make-up of Fiji and the logistical challenges involved in completing assessments of the outer islands pose many barriers, but each day brings more progress, the officials said.

The UN agency is continuing to work in close partnership with Fiji's Government and other partners to ensure a coordinated and strategic emergency response.

Within the first 24 hours of the request of the Government for assistance, UNICEF provided 3,000 people in the worst affected areas with water, sanitation and hygiene supplies to ensure safe drinking water and delivered education supplies to 995 students of eight schools in the Lau

Emergency health kits, to service a population of 1,000 people for 3 months, as well as tents and education supplies, funded by the New Zealand Government, are being distributed to worst-affected outer islands. On Wednesday night, health supplies which included vitamin A capsules, oral rehydration salts, zinc tablets and six basic health kits were loaded onto boats departing for Gau Island and Batiki Island.

The Australian Government has donated to UNICEF hygiene kits for 7,920 people and water purification tabs for 1,066 household.

However, funding is needed to sustain and scale up this response, the officials say.

“More heartening though are the stories we are hearing of heroism and the very best of humanity,” Ms Allen said, noting that “Fijians are renowned for the kindness and generosity and we are seeing nothing but solidarity and shared commitment to recover together.”

mid week temp cast
Quoting 16. NativeSun:

It will be the same as it has been, only now their are more people living on the coast or hurricane prone areas.

Climate revisionist drops in one of those sad notes not to be heard again from when, e.g., a request for citation is done.
Climate revisionism, and climate revisionists - are responsible for the Fiji devastation.
No less.

At least this 'NativeSun' will be off the site for a couple days when it's Miami's turn. 860 hPa there, yay, it can be done easily.
Quoting 7. washingtonian115:

I thought they were trending with a more suppressed event.


Not at this moment. Given the trends this winter, things have always trended toward a more amplified solution. The GFS 12z is trending that way and the GGEM is more amplified with an area wide 6-9in of snow.
UKMET 12z low position identical to the GFS 12z:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
414 AM PST MON FEB 29 2016

OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS THE MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A MAJOR
PATTERN CHANGE BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A STRONG AND MOIST ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC WILL FINALLY EXTEND ALL THE WAY TO THE
WEST COAST...DELIVERING A SERIES OF POTENTIALLY WET STORM SYSTEMS
TO CALIFORNIA. A COUPLE OF THE MODELS (00Z CANADIAN AND 00Z GFS)
FORECAST SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA BY FRIDAY...BUT
THE MAIN ACTION WILL BEGIN LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE FIRST STRONG IMPULSE PUSHES INTO CALIFORNIA WITH WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. TWO MORE ROBUST IMPULSES
ARE PROJECTED TO FOLLOW...EACH ABOUT 24 HOURS APART. GIVEN THE
MODEL CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE HIGH THAT
OUR AREA WILL SEE PERIODS OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ALONG WITH LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS FROM THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. WILL
ISSUE A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK SHORTLY...WHICH WILL DRAW
ATTENTION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS AND
THEIR ASSOCIATED HAZARDS.

Miracle March?
Australia's 3 hottest springs were all in the last 3 years, with records going back to 1910. Assuming a uniform distribution, the probability of that happening with springs in Australia is 1 in 192920.

Link


.there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms Tuesday into Tuesday night
across parts of the lower Mississippi/Tennessee and Ohio valleys
eastward into the central and southern Appalachians...


..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms surrounding the slight risk
area...southward through parts of the Texas coastal plain into the
lower Rio Grande Valley...


...
Severe storms are possible Tuesday into Tuesday night...in a
corridor from the lower Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio
Valley...eastward through the central and southern Appalachians.
Potentially damaging wind gusts and perhaps isolated tornadoes will
be possible in strongest activity...in addition to at least some
risk for severe hail.

These latter short wave developments have been a Point of
discrepancy among the models...and a source of sizable spread
within the various model ensemble output...the past few days. This
remains the case...but guidance...in general...does appear to be
trending toward maintaining the strength of the short wave impulse
of Pacific origin....east southeastward across the middle
Mississippi Valley/Ozark Plateau...into the Appalachians by 12z
Wednesday. It also is appearing more probable that increased
phasing or interaction of this feature with the impulse digging
toward the Great Lakes may lead to more substantive surface
cyclogenesis across the Ohio Valley by late Tuesday or Tuesday
night. All of this seems to point to increasing severe weather
potential across parts of the lower Mississippi...Tennessee and Ohio
valleys....into the Appalachians.


..lower MS/TN/OH valleys into Appalachians...
It still appears that low-level moisture return to the warm sector
of the developing low will remain at least somewhat marginal for
severe weather potential inland of western and central Gulf coastal
areas. However...a plume of initially steep middle-level lapse rates
may contribute to at least weak boundary layer cape during the
day...in the presence of strengthening deep layer mean wind fields.
This may include south southwesterly 850 mb flow strengthening to
50-60+ knots across Tennessee/Kentucky and portions of adjacent states
by Tuesday afternoon...while a 90+ knots cyclonic...westerly 500 mb jet
noses across the Ozark Plateau through the Tennessee Valley.


Potential convective evolution remains uncertain at this point.
However...strong forcing for ascent may support one or more
organized lines or clusters of storms across the Ohio/Tennessee
valleys...perhaps southward toward the lower Mississippi Valley.
Damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible as
activity rapidly spreads toward the central and southern
Appalachians through late Tuesday evening...before diminishing.


Across parts of Mississippi and Alabama...weaker middle-level forcing
may result in the persistence of more discrete storms. Low-level
flow may not be as strong as areas to the north and northeast...but
instability may be a bit greater...and accompanied by perhaps at
least somewhat greater potential for severe hail.

Quoting 20. LuckySD:

Morning all, hope you all had a pleasant weekend. It's that time of year in South Dakota where the weather can't make up it's mind on which season it is. Saturday was gorgeous with a high temp of 63 tying the record set in 1895 according to the WU almanac. (I didn't get to enjoy it though as I spent most of my time on a bus back and forth from Minneapolis.) Sunday was much cooler and gloomier with wind and rain in the morning and overcast for most of the day.

Now today we're talking more snow, but it won't last long because the 7 day forecast is all over the map. I think I'll have my winter coat, rain jacket, and shorts all ready to go for what ever shows up.





With the strong wind blowing and skipping my mad bomber hat, today even as warm as it was was one of the more uncomfortable walks I have had. Although, I spent a couple of hours Saturday walking along Skunk Creek. Very nice.

Quoting 35. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

that's whats going to happen here the next few days lots of snow with cold then the warm up and rapid melt off

spring ahead soon


Too soon to tell for sure but if the beginning of spring is marked by the end of soil freezing cold (temps below -5C) we may have already reached it. The last three Marches in the DC area have had a lot of cold outbreaks and late hard freezes. Don't see that in the long range forecasts this year.

Soils are (as is typical) still too wet to work here with a lot of standing water. They are also, again seasonally normal, cold. Raised beds are warm enough for cool season seeds like peas, radishes and lettuce but putting this off two weeks will probably only lose a few days of maturity in May for these crops.

I'm noticing this because my winter seeded transplants e.g. broccoli are behind where I hoped for because my basement has been colder than usual , a consequence of more woodstove/less furnace use and also a warmer winter.
Quoting 38. cRRKampen:


Climate revisionist drops in one of those sad notes not to be heard again from when, e.g., a request for citation is done.
Climate revisionism, and climate revisionists - are responsible for the Fiji devastation.
No less.

At least this 'NativeSun' will be off the site for a couple days when it's Miami's turn. 860 hPa there, yay, it can be done easily.


The science tying increased TC frequency and intensity to AGW is not settled.
51. vis0
This combo ios NOT an official product.

Going now to read the sad details of this blogbytes headline
Thank you for the sobering statistics for Fiji; big natural disasters for smaller countries (whether developed or not) take a tremendous toll in deaths and the subsequent economic issues.

On the Eurasian heat issue, this current period is consistent with heat waves in that region (and Central Russia comes to mind) that we have seen in the last several years as well.......................The writing is clearly on the wall in terms of how the polar jet is starting to affect the Northern Hemisphere in terms of short-lived but bitter cold snaps in Winter and often brutal and prolonged heat waves in the Spring and Summer across Asia, North America, and Europe in any given year recently.

Quoting 27. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


no increased storm surge levels
with increased coastal erosions
and increased rainfall rates
along with deeper pressures
and higher winds

faster and faster
Only if climate change will effect the storms like you stated. We have no clue at this present time how climate change will effect hurricanes or tropical storms, only a few theories floating around.
Quoting 44. Qazulight:



With the strong wind blowing and skipping my mad bomber hat, today even as warm as it was was one of the more uncomfortable walks I have had. Although, I spent a couple of hours Saturday walking along Skunk Creek. Very nice.


I was a little bummed that I was going to be gone for pretty much all of Saturday. I saw the forecast and got excited thinking I was finally going to be able to take my bike for a ride around the trails, until I remembered my trip. Maybe this Saturday if I'm lucky.

Juan Carlos Sanchez paddled a kayak with his shoes on a flooded street in Miami Beach last year. Credit Lynne Sladky/Associated Press

Seas Are Rising at Fastest Rate in Last 28 Centuries
By JUSTIN GILLISFEB. 22, 2016


The worsening of tidal flooding in American coastal communities is largely a consequence of greenhouse gases from human activity, and the problem will grow far worse in coming decades, scientists reported Monday.

Those emissions, primarily from the burning of fossil fuels, are causing the ocean to rise at the fastest rate since at least the founding of ancient Rome, the scientists said. They added that in the absence of human emissions, the ocean surface would be rising less rapidly and might even be falling.

The increasingly routine tidal flooding is making life miserable in places like Miami Beach; Charleston, S.C.; and Norfolk, Va., even on sunny days.

Though these types of floods often produce only a foot or two of standing saltwater, they are straining life in many towns by killing lawns and trees, blocking neighborhood streets and clogging storm drains, polluting supplies of freshwater and sometimes stranding entire island communities for hours by overtopping the roads that tie them to the mainland.

Such events are just an early harbinger of the coming damage, the new research suggests.

“I think we need a new way to think about most coastal flooding,” said Benjamin H. Strauss, the primary author of one of two related studies released on Monday. “It’s not the tide. It’s not the wind. It’s us. That’s true for most of the coastal floods we now experience.”

In the second study, scientists reconstructed the level of the sea over time and confirmed that it is most likely rising faster than at any point in 28 centuries, with the rate of increase growing sharply over the past century — largely, they found, because of the warming that scientists have said is almost certainly caused by human emissions.

They also confirmed previous forecasts that if emissions were to continue at a high rate over the next few decades, the ocean could rise as much as three or four feet by 2100.
Experts say the situation would then grow far worse in the 22nd century and beyond, likely requiring the abandonment of many coastal cities.

The findings are yet another indication that the stable climate in which human civilization has flourished for thousands of years, with a largely predictable ocean permitting the growth of great coastal cities, is coming to an end.

“I think we can definitely be confident that sea-level rise is going to continue to accelerate if there’s further warming, which inevitably there will be,” said Stefan Rahmstorf, a professor of ocean physics at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, in Germany, and co-author of one of the papers, published online Monday by an American journal, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

In a report issued to accompany that scientific paper, a climate research and communications organization in Princeton, N.J., Climate Central, used the new findings to calculate that roughly three-quarters of the tidal flood days now occurring in towns along the East Coast would not be happening in the absence of the rise in the sea level caused by human emissions.

The lead author of that report, Dr. Strauss, said the same was likely true on a global scale, in any coastal community that has had an increase of saltwater flooding in recent decades.

The rise in the sea level contributes only in a limited degree to the huge, disastrous storm surges accompanying hurricanes like Katrina and Sandy. Proportionally, it has a bigger effect on the nuisance floods that can accompany what are known as king tides.

The change in frequency of those tides is striking. For instance, in the decade from 1955 to 1964 at Annapolis, Md., an instrument called a tide gauge measured 32 days of flooding; in the decade from 2005 to 2014, that jumped to 394 days.

Flood days in Charleston jumped from 34 in the earlier decade to 219 in the more recent, and in Key West, Fla., the figure jumped from no flood days in the earlier decade to 32 in the more recent.

The new research was led by Robert E. Kopp, an earth scientist at Rutgers University who has won respect from his colleagues by bringing elaborate statistical techniques to bear on longstanding problems, like understanding the history of the global sea level.

more:,...
updated watch

Winter storm watch in effect for:
•City of Toronto

A snow storm is expected for Southern Ontario Tuesday and Tuesday night.

A low pressure system developing over Texas today will head towards the Lower Great Lakes and is expected to spread an area of snow into Southern Ontario Tuesday and Tuesday night. This low will tap into moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and has the potential to intensify into a significant winter storm.

This type of Winter storm often has a swath of 15 to 30 cm of heavy snow associated with it. The heavier bands of snow will begin in the Windsor to London area Tuesday afternoon and moving towards Toronto in the early evening. Freezing rain and ice pellets may also be a problem near the Niagara region. Exact snowfall amounts and the possibility of ice pellets and freezing rain will depend upon the exact track of this developing storm.

Travellers should be prepared to alter plans accordingly as
driving conditions are likely to deteriorate significantly on
Tuesday.

The development and track of this storm is being monitored closely. Please refer to updated statements and local forecasts for further details as the event approaches.

Rapidly accumulating snow could make travel difficult over some locations. Visibility may be suddenly reduced at times in heavy snow. Poor weather conditions may contribute to transportation delays. There may be a significant impact on rush hour traffic in urban areas. If you must travel, keep others informed of your schedule and destination and carry an emergency kit and mobile phone.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.
Thanks doks!

Expecting thunderstorms tomorrow...some could be severe!
Quoting 54. NativeSun:

Only if climate change will effect the storms like you stated. We have no clue at this present time how climate change will effect hurricanes or tropical storms, only a few theories floating around.
the effects have already been seen for those that are watching with out blinders its already happening and will continue to do so at a faster and faster rate
I know it's in the 'partially reliable' range, but still cool to look at.

Quoting 54. NativeSun:

Only if climate change will effect the storms like you stated. We have no clue at this present time how climate change will effect hurricanes or tropical storms, only a few theories floating around.


A scientific theory is not a conjecture or guess or hypothesis. It is a explanation supported by evidence. For example, we know Sandy's storm surges were exacerbated by current sea level rise that is attributed to global warming. Sea level at Battery Park was about 1 foot higher than 100 years ago:


As for the effects on tropical systems, we know that a warming ocean has expanded the length of the tropical storm season, increased the poleward location of peak storm strength which also implies an increase in the tropical zones where storm forms, and increased the strength of the strongest storms.

Again, support your assertions with evidence.
Quoting 54. NativeSun:

Only if climate change will effect the storms like you stated. We have no clue at this present time how climate change will effect hurricanes or tropical storms, only a few theories floating around.


Several bloggers have pointed out a miss in my post 47. The effects of AGW on TC frequency and intensity are not settled science. But the effects on storm surge are.. it will get worse because sea levels will rise making surge from storms of the same intensity much worse in the new warmer world.
I do not think that we have the scientific ability to model "backwards" for what the polar jet looked like over the Continents (in both the Southern and Northern Hemispheres) in past millenia but earth samples (fossil records, core sediments, tree ring analysis, etc.) can get us in the ballpark in terms of past cooling and warming eras (as well a sea level rise and fall). However, the polar jets are a big part of the weather equation in any given year or era. Point being that the loss or gain of Arctic or Antarctic ice sheets has to have a measurable impact on the jets. With the current rapid warming of the Arctic, changes in the jet stream pattern over the Northern Hemisphere (whether permanent or semi-permanent features) are sure to follow and this the first generation in the history of man to be able to document this important aspect of climate change...............Hang on to your hats in the coming decades.
Figure 2b. These graphs show average sea level pressure and air temperature anomalies at 925 millibars (about 3,000 feet above sea level) for January 2016. normal.||Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center, courtesy NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Sciences Division| High-resolution image
Quoting 64. weathermanwannabe:

I do not think that we have the scientific ability to model "backwards" for what the polar jet looked like over the Continents (in both the Southern and Northern Hemispheres) in past millenia but earth samples (fossil records, core sediments, tree ring analysis, etc.) can get us in the ballpark in terms of past cooling and warming eras (as well a sea level rise and fall). However, the polar jets are a big part of the weather equation in any given year or era. Point being that the loss or gain of Arctic or Antarctic ice sheets has to have a measurable impact on the jets. With the current rapid warming of the Arctic, changes in the jet stream pattern over the Northern Hemisphere (whether permanent or semi-permanent features) are sure to follow and this the first generation in the history of man to be able to document this important aspect of climate change...............Hang on to your hats in the coming decades.


In response to your post (and I agree with it). Here is a good article on how scientists KNOW that the warming arctic is casuing snow to fall in the NE.

http://www.adn.com/article/20160228/what-does-war ming-arctic-have-do-snow-new-england-plenty

Link
ENGLAND - NEW RECORD WARMEST WINTER: Winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) of 2015-2016 is the record warmest winter in England.

Link
Keep - It hit 50F here yesterday. Looks like you are getting our cold weather and snow.
68. JRRP
Well see you later
WALES - NEW RECORD WARMEST & WETTEST WINTER: Winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) of 2015-2016 is the record warmest winter and the record wettest winter in Wales.

Link
SCOTLAND - NEW RECORD WETTEST WINTER: Winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) of 2015-2016 is the record wettest winter in Scotland.

Link
Quoting 68. JRRP:

Well see you later

I notice this! CFS trending more active for the MDR.
CFS also showing strong trade winds for the peak of the season.

CFS you crazy!
Quoting 67. Dakster:

Keep - It hit 50F here yesterday. Looks like you are getting our cold weather and snow.

Check for mail .... 33.6 there today
Actually, Toronto set its all time February high temp record back on Feb. 3.
Quoting 75. Gearsts:



I like it....
We look like pre 2012 hurricane season and 2014.

I guess not.
Quoting 70. DCSwithunderscores:

SCOTLAND - NEW RECORD WETTEST WINTER: Winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) of 2015-2016 is the record wettest winter in Scotland.

Link


The record rainfall we've had here in Scotland hasn't been any more intense than what we're well used to. It's the sheer persistence that has been remarkable, and that goes for the gales, as well.

The jet stream is to blame. Its meandering loops (Rossby waves) have become larger, due to enhanced Arctic warming, and they're becoming stuck in the same place for longer periods than in the past.

In Cumbria, just over the Scottish border, river defences were built five years ago, to protect against 1 in 100 year flood events. This winter, the defences were overtopped by 16 inches. The past is no longer a reliable indicator for the future, and scientists are behind the curve on this jet stream driven climate change.
Quoting 61. Naga5000:



A scientific theory is not a conjecture or guess or hypothesis. It is a explanation supported by evidence. For example, we know Sandy's storm surges were exacerbated by current sea level rise that is attributed to global warming. Sea level at Battery Park was about 1 foot higher than 100 years ago:


As for the effects on tropical systems, we know that a warming ocean has expanded the length of the tropical storm season, increased the poleward location of peak storm strength which also implies an increase in the tropical zones where storm forms, and increased the strength of the strongest storms.

Again, support your assertions with evidence.



Is there a way to differentiate land subsidence versus sea level rise?
Quoting 74. sneezor:

Actually, Toronto set its all time February high temp record back on Feb. 3.


It's the snow, not a single day temp I was talking about. We should have had a lot more snow in Anchorage area, but it is so warm out, it came down as rain.
Quoting 72. Gearsts:

CFS also showing strong trade winds for the peak of the season.

CFS you crazy!


And with the possibility of neutral or La Nina conditions at the peak of the season hurricane activity will wreak havoc in some places. At this time I hope it's premature for just crazy thoughts of what could be.
Quoting 80. VAbeachhurricanes:



Is there a way to differentiate land subsidence versus sea level rise?


Yes and it is often done in the literature. The data used in the graph is from NOAA and measures absolute sea level rise. For the Battery Park area, subsidence accounts for 3-4 inches per century, while sea level contributes the other.

"What kind of sea level rise has New York Harbor seen over the past century?
We’ve had roughly a foot of sea level rise in the New York City area in the past century. That’s measured at a tidal gauge near Battery Park just off the southern tip of Manhattan.

The majority of the sea level rise in the New York City region is due to global warming: primarily, because of thermal expansion of ocean water as it warms and secondly, melting of land-based ice sheets.

Land subsidence [sinking] in the New York City area has been roughly 3-4 inches per century, which is primarily due to the Earth’s crust rebounding* from being compressed by massive ice sheets that covered Canada and the northern U.S. about 20,000 years ago near the end of the last Ice Age. Local variations in ocean surface elevation associated with the strength of the Gulf Stream has played a small role as well." Link

Quoting 79. yonzabam:



The record rainfall we've had here in Scotland hasn't been any more intense than what we're well used to. It's the sheer persistence that has been remarkable, and that goes for the gales, as well.

The jet stream is to blame. Its meandering loops (Rossby waves) have become larger, due to enhanced Arctic warming, and they're becoming stuck in the same place for longer periods than in the past.

In Cumbria, just over the Scottish border, river defences were built five years ago, to protect against 1 in 100 year flood events. This winter, the defences were overtopped by 16 inches. The past is no longer a reliable indicator for the future, and scientists are behind the curve on this jet stream driven climate change.
You are right on the money but I don't think that the scientists are behind the curve; they are seeing the real time effects of a warming Arctic, and the impact on the related jet stream changes, for the first time in recorded history.  Real fascinating stuff that was probably impossible to predict just a few decades ago.  Some new studies have confirmed that the Arctic was ice free in the past (based on core samples) along with concurrent sea level rise but they have no clue what the jet above the earth was doing exactly during these same periods................We can only speculate as to the past and note the current changes you have noted in the coming decades.
Quoting 59. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

the effects have already been seen for those that are watching with out blinders its already happening and will continue to do so at a faster and faster rate
And what effects are you taking about, that have not happened with past severe storms?
Quoting 63. georgevandenberghe:



Several bloggers have pointed out a miss in my post 47. The effects of AGW on TC frequency and intensity are not settled science. But the effects on storm surge are.. it will get worse because sea levels will rise making surge from storms of the same intensity much worse in the new warmer world.
Yes I agree with you on this, but how do we know how high the sea level rise will be in the future. if it's only a few inches, it will have a minor impact, but not as bad as most of the gloom and doom bloggers on here suggest.
Quoting 71. Gearsts:

I notice this! CFS trending more active for the MDR.
Looks like a trail of moister, moving from off Africa, all the way to Florida and the South, Southeast U.S., including most of the Caribbean Islands, and Cuba.
SPC AC 291723

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 AM CST MON FEB 29 2016

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO
MIDDLE TN...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK FROM
THE ARKLATEX INTO KY...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE THE MAIN THREAT.

...DISCUSSION...

STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY REGION
INTO THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEY DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AS MID-LEVEL
SPEED MAX DIGS TOWARD WRN TN. STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD
ENCOURAGE UVV ALONG/AHEAD OF SURGING COLD FRONT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING
ALONG THE FRONT FROM NERN OK...INTO SRN MO. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO BE MAINTAINED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT PROGRESSES DOWNSTREAM
INTO A RECOVERING LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS. STRONG SWLY LLJ SHOULD ALLOW
MODIFIED GULF AIR TO SURGE NEWD ACROSS EAST TX AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WHERE NEAR 60F SFC DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.

FORECAST LAPSE RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT STEEP...THUS
GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ALONG SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER FORCING
WHERE SFC DEW POINTS ARE ABLE TO RISE TO NEAR 60F. STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED ROTATING STORMS
AND THUS SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SLGT RISK
REGION FROM SERN AR INTO MIDDLE TN. WHILE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
ARE THE GREATEST RISK WITH CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY WITH NEAR-FRONTAL
STORMS...A FEW TORNADOES COULD BE OBSERVED WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.


CONVECTION WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS
TX WHERE MEAGER FORCING WILL STRUGGLE TO INDUCE TSTMS WITHIN A
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT.

..DARROW.. 02/29/2016
Quoting 86. NativeSun:

Yes I agree with you on this, but how do we know how high the sea level rise will be in the future. if it's only a few inches, it will have a minor impact, but not as bad as most of the gloom and doom bloggers on here suggest.


We model it. If we had data from the future we would use it. Sigh. The best estimates based on current observations and emission pathways are 1 to 4 feet by 2100. Although current trends put us on the high end of that estimate.
Quoting 86. NativeSun:

Yes I agree with you on this, but how do we know how high the sea level rise will be in the future. if it's only a few inches, it will have a minor impact, but not as bad as most of the gloom and doom bloggers on here suggest.


Also the characterization of this as doom and gloom is quite insulting. Please, if you have better peer reviewed estimates, do share. It seems like this mischaracterization of the science is merely a coping mechanism to ignore the reality of the situation.


223 mph jet max due north of Hawaii by Friday. Long range models are showing a return to storminess for California as March gets underway.
Quoting 83. Naga5000:



Yes and it is often done in the literature. The data used in the graph is from NOAA and measures absolute sea level rise. For the Battery Park area, subsidence accounts for 3-4 inches per century, while sea level contributes the other.

"What kind of sea level rise has New York Harbor seen over the past century?
We’ve had roughly a foot of sea level rise in the New York City area in the past century. That’s measured at a tidal gauge near Battery Park just off the southern tip of Manhattan.

The majority of the sea level rise in the New York City region is due to global warming: primarily, because of thermal expansion of ocean water as it warms and secondly, melting of land-based ice sheets.

Land subsidence [sinking] in the New York City area has been roughly 3-4 inches per century, which is primarily due to the Earth’s crust rebounding* from being compressed by massive ice sheets that covered Canada and the northern U.S. about 20,000 years ago near the end of the last Ice Age. Local variations in ocean surface elevation associated with the strength of the Gulf Stream has played a small role as well." Link

Actually, post-glacial rebound would cause sea level to DROP, not rise. Yet sea level is rising along the East Coast, which suggests that the rise from melting ice and thermal expansion has been even MORE pronounced.
Quoting 92. BayFog:


Actually, post-glacial rebound would cause sea level to DROP, not rise. Yet sea level is rising along the East Coast, which suggests that the rise from melting ice and thermal expansion has been even MORE pronounced.


The New York example is outside the former Ice margin and therefore results in sinking as the areas to the north uplift.
Quoting 93. Naga5000:



The New York example is outside the former Ice margin and therefore results in sinking as the areas to the north uplift.

I thought the ice extended right over what is now NYC, with Long Island as the terminal moraine.
Quoting 67. Dakster:

Keep - It hit 50F here yesterday. Looks like you are getting our cold weather and snow.
it hit 14 c just before midnight last night 58f hard to believe by wed we be near -15c for lows single digits on f scale with 20 maybe 30 cm of snow that will be solid ice by then on the ground
Quoting 25. Caladesian:

The spring frogs were croaking in the ponds of the Kettle Moraine Forest in Wisconsin on Saturday. As a Floridian, I do not think that is normal for February in Wisconsin.


At one time, that would have been normal for perhaps early May. (I grew up back east).

Normal, whatever it was, may no longer exist in any meaningful sense, when it comes to things like this.
It's been a while since we had a cat 5 landfall anywhere in the ATL basin ..... I don't know how well we'd cope here with a cat 5 storm, though Joaquin was a pretty strong reminder.

Good Monday afternoon to all, from mostly cloudy Nassau. It's pretty gloomy here compared to the typical non-frontal Feb/Mar day - must be a leap year thang ....

Quoting 94. BayFog:


I thought the ice extended right over what is now NYC, with Long Island as the terminal moraine.


From my understanding it was the collapse of the bulge on the south end of the ice sheet as the ice retreated which is causing the subsidence there. A little more nuance than just uplift/subsidence and outside my area of knowledge. I just go with what has been written on the subject.

Edit: Work on the Chesapeake Bay area provides the solution in better words than I can muster:

"Glacial Isostatic Adjustment
Crystalline bedrock underlies the layered sediments of the Virginia Coastal Plain aquifer
system. Bedrock is not solid and unyielding but actually flexes and moves in response to stress.
Bedrock in the mid-Atlantic region is moving slowly downward in response to melting of the
Laurentide ice sheet that covered Canada and the northern United States during the last ice age
(Sella and others, 2007; Boon and others, 2010). When the ice sheet still existed, the weight of
the ice pushed the underlying Earth%u2019s crust downward and, in response, areas away from the ice
sheet were forced upward (called glacial forebulge). The southern Chesapeake Bay region is
in the glacial forebulge area and was forced upward by the Laurentide ice sheet. The ice sheet
started melting about 18,000 years ago and took many thousands of years to disappear entirely.
As the ice melted and its weight was removed, glacial forebulge areas, which previously had
been forced upward, began sinking and continue to sink today. This movement of the Earth%u2019s
crust in response to ice loading or melting is called glacial isostatic adjustment." Link
2nd week of March looking very warm.
Quoting 91. BayFog:



223 mph jet max due north of Hawaii by Friday. Long range models are showing a return to storminess for California as March gets underway.


Sure. Three kinds of lies: Lies, Damn Lies, and the GFS.

I'll believe it when I see it.
"[Models] all agree on a powerful warm pattern evolving by next week for much of the eastern two-thirds of the US"-CWG
Quoting 96. MontanaZephyr:



The spring frogs were croaking in the ponds of the Kettle Moraine Forest in Wisconsin on Saturday. As a Floridian, I do not think that is normal for February in Wisconsin.

At one time, that would have been normal for perhaps early May. (I grew up back east).

Normal, whatever it was, may no longer exist in any meaningful sense, when it comes to things like this.


Its usually mid March when we start hearing froggies at night. In Wisconsin it means nothing (unfortunately) but its a hopeful sign of Spring.
Quoting 97. BahaHurican:

It's been a while since we had a cat 5 landfall anywhere in the ATL basin ..... I don't know how well we'd cope here with a cat 5 storm, though Joaquin was a pretty strong reminder.

Good Monday afternoon to all, from mostly cloudy Nassau. It's pretty gloomy here compared to the typical non-frontal Feb/Mar day - must be a leap year thang ....


I was correct in thinking the 2007 "twins" Dean and Felix were the last.
99. Climate175
This seems like a year where we skip Spring completely and head straight into summer.I'd rather have that than the b.s-ing around that nature has done this winter where one week is mild and the next week is cold.If we're going to have a hot summer might as well get a head start.I can feel the 80 degree temps coming looking at that map.
Take a look at this list, though, [taken from this article] and tell me if you see anything "off" ....

IN THE ATLANTIC

%u2014 On Sept. 4, 2007, Hurricane Felix slammed into Nicaragua's Mosquito Coast, killing 101 people.

%u2014 On Aug. 21, 2007, Hurricane Dean hit near Majahual, Mexico, killing at least 13 people.

%u2014 On Aug. 24, 1992, Hurricane Andrew came ashore in Miami, killing 65 people.

%u2014 On Sept. 14, 1988, Hurricane Gilbert slammed into Cancun, Mexico, killing 327 people.

%u2014 On Aug. 29, 1979, Hurricane David barreled into Leeward Island of Dominica, killing more than 2,000 people. [NOTE: In all, 56 people died in Dominica and 180 were injured according to Wikipedia.]

%u2014 On Sept. 2, 1977, Hurricane Anita plowed into Tamaulipas, Mexico, killing at least 10 people.

%u2014 On Sept. 9, 1971, Hurricane Edith made landfall in Nicaragua, killing 30 people.

%u2014 On Aug. 17, 1969, Hurricane Camille hit near Biloxi, Mississippi, killing 256 people.

%u2014 On Sept. 28, 1955, Hurricane Janet raced into Chetumal, Mexico, killing more than 600 people.

%u2014 On Sept. 16, 1937, an unnamed Category 5 hurricane blew into the Bahamas, killing 51 people.

%u2014 On Sept. 3, 1935, Hurricane Labor Day churned into the Florida Keys, killing 408 people.

%u2014 On Sept. 13, 1928, Hurricane San Felipe-Okeechobee pummeled Puerto Rico, killing 2,166 people.

___
Quoting 104. washingtonian115:

99. Climate175
This seems like a year where we skip Spring completely and head straight into summer.I'd rather have that than the b.s-ing around that nature has done this winter where one week is mild and the next week is cold.If we're going to have a hot summer might as well get a head start.I can feel the 80 degree temps coming looking at that map.
I was just chatting with P about that, 80s are not out of the question for sure, I mean it already looks like we will be in the 70s next week.
watch upgraded to warning

Winter storm warning in effect for:
•City of Toronto

A major winter storm is expected.

A deepening low pressure system will give heavy snow and blowing snow. The snow will begin Tuesday midday and intensify into the evening with the heaviest amounts of snow falling Tuesday night. Strong northeasterly winds will also give blowing snow especially in exposed areas and along the Lake Ontario shoreline due to gusts of 70 kilometres per hour. About 2 to 5 centimeters can be expected Tuesday afternoon and then 10 to 20 centimeters during the night. As the wind shifts early Wednesday morning to northerly the snow will end. Regions near Lake Erie may also experience several hours of freezing rain especially Tuesday night. If the freezing rain stays to the south of Niagara then they may see the highest amounts of snow.

Surfaces such as highways, roads, walkways and parking lots may become difficult to navigate due to accumulating snow. There may be a significant impact on rush hour traffic in urban areas.

Winter storm warnings are issued when multiple types of severe winter weather are expected to occur together.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.
Winter storm warning in effect.

Tonight Partly cloudy. Flurries early this evening. Wind southwest 40 km/h gusting to 60 becoming northwest 40 gusting to 70 early this evening then light late this evening. Low minus 9.
Tue, 1 Mar Cloudy. Snow and local blowing snow beginning in the morning. Amount 2 to 4 cm. Wind becoming northeast 30 km/h gusting to 50 in the morning. High minus 4.
Night Snow at times heavy and blowing snow. Amount 10 to 15 cm. Wind northeast 30 km/h gusting to 70 becoming northwest 30 before morning. Low minus 7.
Wed, 2 Mar A mix of sun and cloud. High minus 2.
Night Cloudy periods. Low minus 14.
105. BahaHurican
3:31 PM EST on February 29, 2016

Yeah they screwed you guys over.Andrew hit the Bahamas first as a cat 5 and then came ashore in Florida as the monster many remember today.I just cannot believe a category 5 making landfall today in the United States.Florida nor the Bahamas can afford one.
Quoting 104. washingtonian115:

99. Climate175
This seems like a year where we skip Spring completely and head straight into summer.I'd rather have that than the b.s-ing around that nature has done this winter where one week is mild and the next week is cold.If we're going to have a hot summer might as well get a head start.I can feel the 80 degree temps coming looking at that map.


I'm expecting a longer spring than 2015 where real chill persisted to the first week in April, then summer started the first few days of May. This made cool season vegetable seasons very short. Heat that begins the second week of March can't hang on for two months..

can it??


Incidentally April 2012 averaged close to normal after that record warm March.
Quoting 106. Climate175:

I was just chatting with P about that, 80s are not out of the question for sure, I mean it already looks like we will be in the 70s next week.


80 in March here is common and not at all remarkable. But again duration of this forecast warm spell will
be exceptional.
Quoting 105. BahaHurican:

Take a look at this list, though, [taken from this article] and tell me if you see anything "off" ....

IN THE ATLANTIC

%u2014 On Sept. 4, 2007, Hurricane Felix slammed into Nicaragua's Mosquito Coast, killing 101 people.

%u2014 On Aug. 21, 2007, Hurricane Dean hit near Majahual, Mexico, killing at least 13 people.

%u2014 On Aug. 24, 1992, Hurricane Andrew came ashore in Miami, killing 65 people.

%u2014 On Sept. 14, 1988, Hurricane Gilbert slammed into Cancun, Mexico, killing 327 people.

%u2014 On Aug. 29, 1979, Hurricane David barreled into Leeward Island of Dominica, killing more than 2,000 people. [NOTE: In all, 56 people died in Dominica and 180 were injured according to Wikipedia.]

%u2014 On Sept. 2, 1977, Hurricane Anita plowed into Tamaulipas, Mexico, killing at least 10 people.

%u2014 On Sept. 9, 1971, Hurricane Edith made landfall in Nicaragua, killing 30 people.

%u2014 On Aug. 17, 1969, Hurricane Camille hit near Biloxi, Mississippi, killing 256 people.

%u2014 On Sept. 28, 1955, Hurricane Janet raced into Chetumal, Mexico, killing more than 600 people.

%u2014 On Sept. 16, 1937, an unnamed Category 5 hurricane blew into the Bahamas, killing 51 people.

%u2014 On Sept. 3, 1935, Hurricane Labor Day churned into the Florida Keys, killing 408 people.

%u2014 On Sept. 13, 1928, Hurricane San Felipe-Okeechobee pummeled Puerto Rico, killing 2,166 people.

___
Quoting 115. georgevandenberghe:



I'm expecting a longer spring than 2015 where real chill persisted to the first week in April, then summer started the first few days of May. This made cool season vegetable seasons very short. Heat that begins the second week of March can't hang on for two months..

can it??


Incidentally April 2012 averaged close to normal after that record warm March.


The other casualty of +80F might be daffodils. Temperatures much above 80 blast the buds and kill the flowers.
S NEW ZEALAND'S OLDEST CITY - NEW RECORD HOTTEST SUMMER & HOTTEST MONTH: Summer (Dec-Jan-Feb) of 2015-2016 is the record hottest summer in Nelson NZ, and February 2016 is the record hottest calendar month there. Founded in 1841, Nelson is the oldest city on New Zealand's South Island.

Link
Sioux Falls has been bumped up into a Winter Weather Advisory starting at 6 CST tonight, with snowfall totals now in the 3-5 inches expected range.

Here comes the snow (do do do do)
Quoting 108. nrtiwlnvragn:










Link

Not liking the looks of that at all.
Trinidad (11N 61W) is already very dry after a wet season that did not produce enough rain.
Drought conditions in Tobago, and water restrictions in Trinidad already. Since early Feb., in fact.
Bush and forest fires are a serious problem here -mostly lit by fools- and then that improves the odds for damaging flash flooding when the rains come in June through December.

We have all the "right" laws and Legislation, but the political will is seriously lacking when it comes to matters of the Environment here.
Honored to have finally earned a mention on this great blog :) Hope we see more coverage of other basins, I personally love reading stats and more in-depth analysis for them.
I don't mind milder/shorter winters, and going right into summer heat in March or April, because it extends my wade fishing season (I need water temps of 65 or more at my hot spot on the coast before the fish start coming to that particular flat to eat in the Spring) here in North Florida.

However that is a purely selfish thought (in my little corner of the world); 80% of the world population relies on Winter snow pack for fresh water and a shorter Winter, in global terms, could be disasterous if it ends up reducing snow pack in certain regions. Lots of people are going to be "traveling" in the coming decades to find food (as fishes and animals migrate as the result of climate change and/or planting regions move as well) and to find the most basic need; water for agriculture and consumption.

It's not going to be pretty downstream...........................
Quoting 102. Snacker2:



Its usually mid March when we start hearing froggies at night. In Wisconsin it means nothing (unfortunately) but its a hopeful sign of Spring.


Vermont saying upon hearing the spring peepers

"Three more freeze ups to come"
Quoting 41. BayFog:

Miracle March?


We need like a 3x Miracle March to even get remotely close to busting the drought. I'm not confident that we'll get anything near needed to get rid of the drought. That stubborn High Pressure ridge off the coast is drawing moisture away from us.


Probably not planting much this year - again :(.

I welcome the rain and snow - but we need lots of it.
Global Sea Level rise is occurring FASTER than anytime in the last 2800 years.

As February ends, for Central Florida this El Nino certainly hasn't lived up to the hype of comparing it to 97/98. In Dec of 97 and Feb or 98 Tampa received over 30" of rain. This year less than 7". January was above normal with about 6.5". The good news is there hasn't been any serious tornadoes like we saw in Feb of 98 that killed 42 and injured hundreds.

South Florida has certainly received the rain and the tornadoes - but they do not compare to the devastation seen in 98.
129. vis0

Quoting 16. NativeSun:

It will be the same as it has been, only now their are more people living on the coast of hurricane prone areas.
YES the following is much but it is original and it is actually 3 comments into 1 as this morning i tried to post 2 comments by forgot it was Sunday into Monday nite when the hidden Ghouls fire up their mischievous deeds on WxU servers.

Glad to see NativeSun is learning bit by bit as NativeSun is figuring out that be it GW or aGW the important thing is humanity join together to slow down and in time to stop this planet from warming so much that it make modern living impossible. Modern as in having a cleaner form of AC to maintain a comfortable home yet not add to the planets warming or any EcoEco car (Eco friendly & Economic friendly, yes name the car the Tesla "echo".). Yet to have these luxuries one needs stability as in a place to build a home that one can live in at least for 20 or 30 years. As NativeSun commented that there is now a greater population not just on the coastlines but in the world...millions more in the USofA and billions more throughout the world since the USofA had 2 to 4 severe Hurricanes hit mainland.

 

 

Top maps shows USofA oh lets say 1928 AD. The blueish spot(s) are if 2 Hurricanes cat 4 that hit within one ATLANTIC tropical season (June-Nov) and had a strong surge. So the blue means damage of any type from those storms. Now compare the exact same top map but storms hitting in 2016... .  As NativeSun states it will be worse as there are more people in those areas. This causes delays as 2 areas now need help. Red Cross, Portlight, humans volunteering through OFFICIAL organizations (BTW we need to create some sort of UPC patch that volunteers can wear and expires after a week so official can scan to see if the person wearing it matches the UPC - fingerprint - persons information encrypted coded description.  

 



 

With a mega disaster period we need much more GOOD people and the amount will overwhelm if all we have are officials with red cross cards pointing to volunteers as too many good and not so good people will converge towards those areas. The UPC codes can be create just for those short time periods and can be first given to those that live in the damaged area and has to be of a weather proof material )

 

Now lets add a warmer climate lets raise temperatures 1C which in turn adds more moisture to be held by the "air" If one is not sure of that, notice when you  go out in 72F and 100% humidity and its not raining it still does not feel "wet" no need for under arm antiperspirant.

 

Now if one goes out in 87 F and 100% humidity and its not raining one is feeling the armpit and/or making sure one has anti-perspirant .

 

Why ?

Cause the warmer the air the more moisture it can hold, be it in the atmosphere where droplets condense or under the (sniff sniff) armpit.

 

Now that one has more moisture in the atmosphere and the sun is heating it and heating the warmer oceans more moisture plumps up in the clouds so the clouds "burst" and more moisture is being replenished through evaporation from the now warmer ocean so those 2 Hurricanes not only can add more transferred energy via enclosed matter as rain, but open transfers as winds and the damage area will be greater, plus as a bonus nature has a greater opportunity to create 3 instead of just 2 cat 3 Hurricanes or create 2 more a month or so later.

 

There goes the stability some thought they could build by not taking care of the planet NOW and instead of having to fix your home every 11-22 years from mostly wear n tear and one severe storm now its fix your home every 6-12 years and the city has to fix the roads, state the highways, government the infrastructures.

 

In case some then pull out the "more jobs" card, uh where are you going to live?, place that money (i.e. banks on mountain tops, watch when ya see a Citibank, Insurance companies and Walmarts LITERALLY their offices & storefronts on mountain tops guess what, you will not be able to afford prices at uh ... those levels.

 

So NativeSun i'm glad you are begriming to see the big (globe) picture as just a short while ago it was that no flooding existed, now its that the flooding is affecting more populated areas soon (SADLY) it'll be which city or state official is to blame for not fixing the infrastructure to take i 20-30% more flood waters than was planned 2 generations ago. At that point i recommend NativeSun place a mirror in front of NativeSun and point. Get the point?

 

One more word emo-logical, and as to Trumps WALLmart (ya heard it here 32nd) , where can you read that on my my zilly blog pg. 7 cmmnt#342

BACK TO OBSERVING WEATHER AND helping as one can with those going through (man enhanced) natural disasters.
Re: list in #105: Isn't Hurricane Mitch missing from that list? I thought he struck Central America as a Category 5 storm.
Hi folks. I'm already exhausted at the evening of the first day of the week (*cry*), but nevertheless here a little update on our bad European Zissi (German)/Golia(Italian). And thanks for the good blog on a sad subject, Bob and Doc, which is the aftermath of Winston.


This is the current appearance of Zissi/Golia. Main center of circulation (there are/were two though) still west of the Italian boot, but now up to 1003mb. But it looks like that Greece and the Balkans currently get the beating of the associated fronts of that low, combined with a choke of SAL (dust from the Sahara).

Death toll of the system: two reported from Spain earlier, five now from Italy - but as I often explain, it is really difficult to get a summary of storms like this as the diversity of European countries with their different languages and political independence hamper a sum-up of severe weather which affects more than one country.

Two dead and thousands lose power in Spain snow storms
The Local (Spain) Published: 29 Feb 2016 10:32 GMT 01:00
Two hikers were found dead after being lost during a storm of intense wind and snow in Castellon at the weekend.
The two women had gone missing on Saturday along with a man who was found alive on Sunday by emergency services around the mountainous area of Tinenca de Benifassa, according to the Generalitat Valenciana.
A search helicopter had found the man, who then helped emergency responders find the bodies of the two women. The man was taken to hospital, though the local government reported that he was in a "good condition".
"The government expresses its condolences for the death of the two hikers," the Generalitat wrote in a statement.
Elsewhere, more than 10,000 homes in Aragon and Navarra had blackouts during power outages caused by storms of rain, snow and wind in the northern regions, Aragon's government reported on Saturday. ...

More see link above.

Five people dead as storms batter Italy
The Local (Italy), Published: 29 Feb 2016 09:50 GMT 01:00
Five people were killed and many more rescued from perilous circumstances late on Sunday when storms and heavy rainfall battered much of the Italian peninsular.
The storms were brought by cyclone Golia and by early evening much of Italy was in the grip of bad weather, which left five people dead. ...

More see link above.


From Meteo Europe: Anyone in for a ride like this?! Red panda buried in tons of #snow this morning in Piemonte Italy! WOW!! Photo by Gianluca Nessuno Grafino
Quoting 130. OrchidGrower:

Re: list in #105: Isn't Hurricane Mitch missing from that list? I thought he struck Central America as a Category 5 storm.
No he weakened before he made landfall in central america.It was the rain that caused the tremendous amount of deaths.
Everyone stay weather safe this evening and afternoon; as noted by Keeper (as well as along the Northern tier of the US), Winter is far from over in many parts of North America regardless of the warm temps in other parts of the US and Canada is being hammered by a strong Arctic low at the moment.

See Yall in the AM.




Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database


just recorded a wind gust of 83kmh as the arctic front blows by temps falling too -9c tonight winds will diminish near midnight then regain from ne as Tuesdays storm takes shape
Quoting 125. CraigsIsland:



We need like a 3x Miracle March to even get remotely close to busting the drought. I'm not confident that we'll get anything near needed to get rid of the drought. That stubborn High Pressure ridge off the coast is drawing moisture away from us.


Probably not planting much this year - again :(.

I welcome the rain and snow - but we need lots of it.


Miracle March is better than an Apathetic April.
Quoting 10. LuckySD:

Thanks Jeff and Bob. Looking back on the track for Winston, it really was a worst case scenario for Fiji how it looped back around and strengthened right before slamming into the islands.



This image is just crazy to me. I can't imagine being on that island and going through the eyewall and all the destruction that comes with it, to entering the eye and the relative calm, only to look around and be completely surrounded by this monster storm and the other side of the eyewall bearing down on you.
Has anyone here been in a situation like that? What would being on the ground in the eye of a storm like that feel like? Especially knowing you were about to go through the eyewall again.


If anyone was in between Coral Gables and Key Largo 23.5 years ago on this blog, then yes.
Pretty sure there will be no Rain in the next 9 hours.
So it will be .55" for all of Funky February.
Quoting 91. BayFog:



223 mph jet max due north of Hawaii by Friday. Long range models are showing a return to storminess for California as March gets underway.


Been there seen this ALL WINTER........ wake me up should anything actually materialize.
Another great-looking day tomorrow



Quoting 26. PedleyCA:



Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7429
Been here a whole year, Well, a Whole Leap Year....


One of my uncles is born on Leap Day, so I usually joke that I'm older than him cos I've had more birthdays than him (ten infact).
For all you California surf, rain, and general el nino fans, check out the current stormsurf video update. It's excellent as usual.

Link: Stormsurf Video Surf and El Nino forecast for Sun (2/28/16)
Quoting 138. PedleyCA:

Pretty sure there will be no Rain in the next 9 hours.
So it will be .55" for all of Funky February.
I would gladly send you all my rain but right now in the modern world we have no way of properly transporting it.
Quoting 117. nrtiwlnvragn:




Apparently Edith and Andrew were a couple of whimps
Quoting 130. OrchidGrower:

Re: list in #105: Isn't Hurricane Mitch missing from that list? I thought he struck Central America as a Category 5 storm.


Nope, weakened rapidly and hit as a 1 I think. The death toll was contributed to flooding as it slowly moved offshore and finally onshore the region before recurving back out to the Gulf.

edit: oops sorry washi, didn't see you answer this earlier :/
Quoting 131. barbamz:

Hi folks. I'm already exhausted at the evening of the first day of the week (*cry*), but nevertheless here a little update on our bad European Zissi (German)/Golia(Italian). And thanks for the good blog on a sad subject, Bob and Doc, which is the aftermath of Winston.


This is the current appearance of Zissi/Golia. Main center of circulation (there are/were two though) still west of the Italian boot, but now up to 1003mb. But it looks like that Greece and the Balkans currently get the beating of the associated fronts of that low, combined with a choke of SAL (dust from the Sahara).

Death toll of the system: two reported from Spain earlier, five now from Italy - but as I often explain, it is really difficult to get a summary of storms like this as the diversity of European countries with their different languages and political independence hamper a sum-up of severe weather which affects more than one country.

Two dead and thousands lose power in Spain snow storms
The Local (Spain) Published: 29 Feb 2016 10:32 GMT 01:00
Two hikers were found dead after being lost during a storm of intense wind and snow in Castellon at the weekend.
The two women had gone missing on Saturday along with a man who was found alive on Sunday by emergency services around the mountainous area of Tinenca de Benifassa, according to the Generalitat Valenciana.
A search helicopter had found the man, who then helped emergency responders find the bodies of the two women. The man was taken to hospital, though the local government reported that he was in a "good condition".
"The government expresses its condolences for the death of the two hikers," the Generalitat wrote in a statement.
Elsewhere, more than 10,000 homes in Aragon and Navarra had blackouts during power outages caused by storms of rain, snow and wind in the northern regions, Aragon's government reported on Saturday. ...

More see link above.

Five people dead as storms batter Italy
The Local (Italy), Published: 29 Feb 2016 09:50 GMT 01:00
Five people were killed and many more rescued from perilous circumstances late on Sunday when storms and heavy rainfall battered much of the Italian peninsular.
The storms were brought by cyclone Golia and by early evening much of Italy was in the grip of bad weather, which left five people dead. ...

More see link above.


From Meteo Europe: Anyone in for a ride like this?! Red panda buried in tons of #snow this morning in Piemonte Italy! WOW!! Photo by Gianluca Nessuno Grafino


How is that Hot Wheels vehicle not a cube of scrap metal?
Yikes, people were not ready for this snow. I have a relatively short commute with about 5 miles of interstate everyday and on my way home from work I saw 5 cars in the ditch and 3 accidents. Average speed coming home was only 15-20 mph with traffic way backed up because of the accidents. At least my cat is having fun chasing the snowflakes through the window.
Quoting 141. VibrantPlanet:

For all you California surf, rain, and general el nino fans, check out the current stormsurf video update. It's excellent as usual.

Link: Stormsurf Video Surf and El Nino forecast for Sun (2/28/16)


37 minutes!
But he believes El-Nino will meet its end in about 1- 2 months.
Above average rainfall so far this year.
Temperature anomalies for January, 2016. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies

Scientists are floored by what's happening in the Arctic right now

By Chris Mooney February 18

New data from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration suggest that January of 2016 was, for the globe, a truly extraordinary month. Coming off the hottest year ever recorded (2015), January saw the greatest departure from average of any month on record, according to data provided by NASA.

[January was the ninth straight month of record breaking global warmth]

But as you can see in the NASA figure above, the record breaking heat wasn't uniformly distributed it was particularly pronounced at the top of the world, showing temperature anomalies above 4 degrees Celsius (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than the 1951 to 1980 average in this region.

Indeed, NASA provides a zonal mean version of the temperature map above, which shows how the temperature departures from average change based on one's latitude location on the Earth. As you can see, things get especially warm, relative to what the Earth is used to, as you enter the very high latitudes:
Global warming has long been known to be particularly intense in the Arctic a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification, but even so, lately the phenomenon has been extremely pronounced.

[This is where the Earth is most vulnerable to big swings in climate]

This unusual Arctic heat has been accompanied by a new record low level for Arctic sea ice extent during the normally ice-packed month of January, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center over 400,000 square miles below average for the month. And of course, that is closely tied to warm Arctic air temperatures.

We've looked at the average January temperatures, and we look at what we call the 925 millibar level, about 3,000 feet up in the atmosphere, says Mark Serreze, the center's director. And it was, I would say, absurdly warm across the entire Arctic Ocean.%u201D The center reports temperature anomalies at this altitude of more than 6 degrees Celsius (13 degrees Fahrenheit) above average for the month.

The low sea ice situation has now continued into February. Current ice extent is well below levels at the same point in 2012, which went on to set the current record for the lowest sea ice minimum extent:

more:....
Quoting 148. Gearsts:

Above average rainfall so far this year.

That could portend to something down the road.It has happened many years along the east coast where we'll have a super wet pattern and then a hurricane/tropical storm will come showing up.
Levi how do i read this map?
Quoting 148. Gearsts:

Above average rainfall so far this year.


What's that low doing there?
Quoting 152. tiggerhurricanes2001:


What's that low doing there?


I don't know, but it's likely that somewhere in that region we'll get Bonnie, most likely in May. (May storms have formed in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2012, and 2015 - that's 5 of the last 9 years, despite not being officially part of hurricane season).
Quoting 151. Gearsts:

Levi how do i read this map?



Weaker trade winds* maybe? Positive zonal flow (parallels lines of latitude) means it comes from the west. But yea Levi would surely know.

*edit: westerlies, I always get em mixed up
Not gonna lie, far north Atlantic doesn't look half bad. Still pretty warm off Africa.
Quoting 153. HurricaneFan:



I don't know, but it's likely that somewhere in that region we'll get Bonnie, most likely in May. (May storms have formed in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2012, and 2015 - that's 5 of the last 9 years, despite not being officially part of hurricane season).

I just have this gut feeling that we will see a May storm, or at least another pre-season storm.
Quoting 154. win1gamegiantsplease:



Weaker trade winds* maybe? Positive zonal flow (parallels lines of latitude) means it comes from the west. But yea Levi would surely know.

*edit: westerlies, I always get em mixed up

I believe it's westerlies or weaker trade winds. Same way the surface winds flow during an el Nino to usher in warm water right????
The 2016 Atlantic season should be an active one...I'd say probably somewhere in the neighborhood of 16 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. If the AMO was more positive, it would likely have been even more active, possibly featuring 20+ storms. Above-normal precip in the MDR, near record-warm SSTs in the southwestern Atlantic should allow for a season much more active than 2013-2015. 2015 was actually surprisingly active for a Very Strong El Nino, its activity was actually fairly close to the long-term average, and could be a sign that 2016 will be above normal without El Nino.

Even if the CFS is right, the El Nino will likely be a "Modoki" El Nino similar to the one that caused the very active 2004 Atlantic season.


night time storms
Quoting 157. tiggerhurricanes2001:


I believe it's westerlies or weaker trade winds. Same way the surface winds flow during an el Nino to usher in warm water right????


Yea, easterly winds (the trades, gotta start getting that right lol) weaken during El Nino
The Southeast may bask in some summerlike heat in mid-March, according to the GFS. 94 degrees is expected in Southeastern Georgia.
Quoting 159. HurricaneFan:

The 2016 Atlantic season should be an active one...I'd say probably somewhere in the neighborhood of 16 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. If the AMO was more positive, it would likely have been even more active, possibly featuring 20+ storms. Above-normal precip in the MDR, near record-warm SSTs in the southwestern Atlantic should allow for a season much more active than 2013-2015. 2015 was actually surprisingly active for a Very Strong El Nino, its activity was actually fairly close to the long-term average, and could be a sign that 2016 will be above normal without El Nino.

Even if the CFS is right, the El Nino will likely be a "Modoki" El Nino similar to the one that caused the very active 2004 Atlantic season.
by end of April if sst's are still above and rising too much heat can suppress activity if waters get too hot also shear sal surface winds all play apart we also need to see how itcz activity sets up as the season approaches many variables a lot to take into account before we get even close at all but if things set up right a high impact season could be in the cards we shall see its early too early I think
Quoting 162. HurricaneFan:

The Southeast may bask in some summerlike heat in mid-March, according to the GFS. 94 degrees is expected in Southeastern Georgia.
significant rebound all the way up here be near 60 next week

problem is this week and the boat load of snow and cold that's on the way

march comes in like a savage
Quoting 151. Gearsts:

Levi how do i read this map?

visO !!! Can you straighten us out on this ???
Quoting 159. HurricaneFan:

The 2016 Atlantic season should be an active one...I'd say probably somewhere in the neighborhood of 16 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. If the AMO was more positive, it would likely have been even more active, possibly featuring 20+ storms. Above-normal precip in the MDR, near record-warm SSTs in the southwestern Atlantic should allow for a season much more active than 2013-2015. 2015 was actually surprisingly active for a Very Strong El Nino, its activity was actually fairly close to the long-term average, and could be a sign that 2016 will be above normal without El Nino.

Even if the CFS is right, the El Nino will likely be a "Modoki" El Nino similar to the one that caused the very active 2004 Atlantic season.


What about the dry stable air that has been surpressing storms over the past couple of years? Is RH going up?
Quoting 167. Bucsboltsfan:



What about the dry stable air that has been surpressing storms over the past couple of years? Is RH going up?


According to a European model forecast, the precipitation in the MDR will likely be above average, meaning a weaker Saharan Air Layer will likely be present.
169. JRRP

Quoting 168. HurricaneFan:



According to a European model forecast, the precipitation in the MDR will likely be above average, meaning a weaker Saharan Air Layer will likely be present.


Ok, let's see if it materializes.
Quoting 170. Bucsboltsfan:



Ok, let's see if it materializes.

I want see as well. Bottom line for me is that at least a return to a normal hurricane season.
I'm looking forward to the name Ian because we have a local forecaster with the same name.
Quoting 38. cRRKampen:


Climate revisionism, and climate revisionists - are responsible for the Fiji devastation.
No less.



Whaaaaaat?
Quoting 169. JRRP:





Carbean boy will love that map
Quoting 174. Tazmanian:



Carbean boy will love that map


Yes I like it. Because this forecast will bust anyway.
Quoting 89. Naga5000:



We model it. If we had data from the future we would use it. Sigh. The best estimates based on current observations and emission pathways are 1 to 4 feet by 2100. Although current trends put us on the high end of that estimate.


You don't even need a complex model.

It isn't rocket science. We know the how much ocean water there is. We know the thermal expansion rate of water. We know the range of expected warming. Even without the addition of land ice there is enough ocean rise to be of concern.

Oh...right. Deniers don't believe that increasing the amount of gases with thermal absorption properties to the atmosphere would do anything like cause excess heat to build up in the world's biggest natural heat sink. Because, you know, only stupid people think physics is real.
178. vis0
CREDIT:: University of Washington (even though they insulted me they do prepare good imagery)
TIME:: 20160229'2115utc 20160301'0215utc
AOI:: COnUS
SAT:: TYPE:: 3 types comboD (observe the actual lightning strike times at top of imagery)

HERE 620x496 View on YouTube at 942x753
Trent, I sent you wumail; my mail icon is not showing up when I receive mail--in case yours isn't, check it.
Canadian Press



Bob Weber

18 hrs ago

Canada in 2050: land of greater extremes

EDMONTON Canada is a land of extremes, from car-freezing cold to crop-searing heat and drenching rains to drought. But you ain't seen nothin' yet.

By 2050 within the life expectancy of most Canadians scientists say that if current emissions levels remain unchanged, climate change will be well established.

It will be warmer: a cross-country summertime average of about two degrees. It will be wetter, mostly, by about five per cent.

Those modest figures may sound good to a country that describes summer as four months of poor sledding. And global warming will bring perks, such as the chance to grow different or more abundant crops.

But gentle averages, however, are not what Canadians will experience. Climate change will feed into Canada's already considerable natural variability %u2014 and not to smooth it out.

"The kind of changes one anticipates are more likelihood of drought or more likelihood of wet periods," said Greg Flato, Environment Canada's top climate modeller.

"If you think about temperature extremes, as the climate warms the likelihood of getting a very hot extreme becomes greater; the likelihood of getting a very cold extreme becomes less likely."

The extra rain, for example, is unlikely to fall in a gentle spring shower. Look for it in great flooding downpours or winter rains that drain before they can nourish crops.

John Pomeroy, a Canada research chair in water resources at the University of Saskatchewan, points out the amount of water that falls as snow has already declined by 50 per cent on the Prairies. The number of multi-day rains has increased by the same amount.

"Farmers need to adapt to that, to being inundated and flooded quite a bit," he said.

Heat-loving crops like corn could become much more common in Canadian fields.

But water availability could limit the advantage of a longer growing season. Southern Canada's modest precipitation gains are expected to be lost through higher temperatures.

FOREST TO PRAIRIE

Milder winters allow mountain pine beetles to survive and infect forests in Alberta and Saskatchewan, killing trees and turning parched and overheated forests into tinder boxes.

Wildfire seasons already begin weeks before they used to. In the Northwest Territories, where temperatures are climbing faster than almost anywhere on earth, the 2014 fire season set a record of 3.4 million hectares of scorched forest.

Aspens, the most common leafy tree in the boreal forest, are dying at twice their historic norm, "part of a larger-scale pattern of climate-related dieback episodes," says Natural Resources Canada.

By 2050, look for big parts of the boreal forest's southern fringe to be brand-new prairie.

"Drought-prone spruce will be lost first, followed by pines and then aspen, to be replaced by some form of prairie grassland," said a 2009 report from the Canadian Council of Forest Ministers.

Glaciers, an important source of water for western cities during low-snow years, are on their way out, said Mike Demuth of the Geological Survey of Canada.

"Glaciers in the Rocky Mountains are pretty much going the way of the dodo bird," he said.

Nor do the changes stop with the land.

"We are already seeing (fish) species shifting their distributions," said William Cheung of the University of British Columbia. "Warmer water species from the south are appearing in the north area and some of the (northern) species are suffering because the ocean becomes too hot for them."

Look for overall catches off the Pacific coast to decline between four and 11 per cent by 2050, Cheung said. Salmon hauls will drop between 17 and 29 per cent, herring by up to half.

There is, however, good news.

West coast fishers can look for more pacific sardines and manila clams. In the Atlantic, catches are expected to increase %u2014 as long as fishers can sail further north.

"Smaller-scale fisheries may not be able to fish from their home ports a lot further," Cheung said.

Commercial fisheries could also open in an ice-free Arctic Ocean, with turbot, Arctic cod and Arctic char. But much science is needed to determine if those fisheries are sustainable.

"It will be risky," Cheung said. "Once fisheries have developed, it's very difficult to scale it down."

THE HIDDEN DRIVER

Canadians will also have to deal with climate change's global impacts.

"It complicates the U.S.-Canada relationship," said Rob Huebert from the Centre for Military and Strategic Studies at the University of Calgary.

"We know that in the southwest (U.S.) they're pretty much getting maxed out in terms of available water sources. In a United States that is water-deprived, they're automatically looking northward."

Climate will be a hidden driver behind many difficult foreign situations, said Huebert. Refugees, fleeing expanding African deserts or the strife caused thereby, will be knocking on Canada's door.

"What I'm seeing is an acceleration in the collapse of some of these societies and it seems to be coming from the expansion of the desert," Huebert said. "(Climate change) definitely seems to be an intervening variable that is exacerbating the situation.

"It's the accelerator of what's already a bad situation."

Some worry current predictions are too conservative.

"All the work we've done may be falling apart because nobody expected to see the Arctic exploding with heat," said University of Lethbridge climate modeller James Byrne.

Even with this year's El Nino, Byrne said the Arctic is falling apart faster than anyone thought it would.

January was the ninth straight month of record-breaking global warmth and saw the greatest departure from average of any on record, says NASA. It was hottest in the Arctic %u2014 four degrees above normal.

"The scenarios are challenging to interpret at this point," Byrne said. "How much faith can we really have in them? I'm worried about that."

Most climatologists say the big impacts %u2014 especially if the world doesn't reduce its carbon emissions %u2014 don't even start until after 2050.

Climate change forecasts, said Flato, only predict more uncertainty.

"We don't know where that ultimate change will be," he said.

"It's a bit worrisome, not knowing what the future will be for my son or my grandchildren. The uncertainty of where it will get to is a worry to me."
When the final numbers are in, I'm expecting February of 2016 to continue the streak and be the warmest month ever, though I'm not sure by how much.

Oh and for the record, Dr. Masters, the second-costliest tropical cyclone in South Pacific history actually wasn't Pam of last year, but Cyclone Val of 1991, which tore through the Samoan Islands as a strong category 4 storm in December. According to the Wikipedia article, Val did roughly 278 million USD dollars in damage at the time, which, if you turn that into today's dollars with this inflation calculator, you'd get roughly 483.5 million dollars in damage, which is well ahead of Pam.

Either way, Winston was a historic storm for Fiji, and at least it didn't become the deadliest storm for the nation, even though it certainly was the costliest and strongest they've ever seen.

EDIT: Fixed the link.
the date should be 2025 not 2050

faster and getting faster as each day goes by
>One of my uncles is born on Leap Day, so I usually joke that I'm older than him cos I've had more birthdays than him (ten infact)
Quoting win1gamegiantsplease

My mom just had her 17th birthday today, another 4 years and she can vote.

Beauty of a day, didn't get my rain so I'm stuck at 49.5" since Oct. Got to eat lunch outside in the sun and planted a cherry tree, nice working at home.

Winter storm advisories in the cascades as well as avalanche warnings%u2026looks like my missing rain will be here soon.

Quoting 177. BaltimoreBrian:

Aerial Shots of Villages From The Interior Of Ra, Fiji


The photo posted in the blog is utterly insane. It seriously looks like EF4 tornado damage, and what makes that even more impressive, is that tornado winds can't very well be compared to straight line winds because they are more destructive due to rapid change in speed, direction, and the vertical component.

With that said, the fact some of the worst damage looks like an EF4 tornado is horrifying, those lots are wiped clean, and everything looks like it's been through a blender and been sanded down. I suspect that location may have seen wind gusts over 200 mph to cause that kind of destruction. I can't imagine the chance of survival in that situation is too high.
Quoting 185. Jedkins01:



The photo posted in the blog is utterly insane. It seriously looks like EF4 tornado damage, and what makes that even more impressive, is that tornado winds can't very well be compared to straight line winds because they are more destructive due to rapid change in speed, direction, and the vertical component.

With that said, the fact some of the worst damage looks like an EF4 tornado is horrifying, those lots are wiped clean, and everything looks like it's been through a blender and been sanded down. I suspect that location may have seen wind gusts over 200 mph to cause that kind of destruction. I can't imagine the chance of survival in that situation is too high.


Pics like that make me wonder why anyone would root for an active hurricane season. I'll take a blizzard or some flooding anyday over 200mph winds.
179. BaltimoreBrian

3:36 AM GMT on March 01, 2016


Made a note to the administrators to fix this problem.
Quoting 179. BaltimoreBrian:

Trent, I sent you wumail; my mail icon is not showing up when I receive mail--in case yours isn't, check it.

I reported that issue to support, it seems it is more wide spread....
Quoting 72. Gearsts:

CFS also showing strong trade winds for the peak of the season.

CFS you crazy!


I thought CFS stood for Completely Fictional Senario, or was it, Computer Fantasty Storm%u2026 or perhaps, Can't Forcast Sh%u2026%u2026%u2026!

Not that I know anything,
Quoting 173. LouisPasteur:



Whaaaaaat?

I was crystal there.
Quoting 185. Jedkins01:



The photo posted in the blog is utterly insane. It seriously looks like EF4 tornado damage, and what makes that even more impressive, is that tornado winds can't very well be compared to straight line winds because they are more destructive due to rapid change in speed, direction, and the vertical component.

With that said, the fact some of the worst damage looks like an EF4 tornado is horrifying, those lots are wiped clean, and everything looks like it's been through a blender and been sanded down. I suspect that location may have seen wind gusts over 200 mph to cause that kind of destruction. I can't imagine the chance of survival in that situation is too high.
The video above is also sobering. Aside from the house damage, the stripped and shorn vegetation gives witness to the wind's power. By now most of what was left has turned brown and shed due to wind burn.... :-/ ...
Quoting 183. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

the date should be 2025 not 2050

faster and getting faster as each day goes by
Why not make it 2020, then it would be really faster and faster.
Quoting 186. plantmoretrees:



Pics like that make me wonder why anyone would root for an active hurricane season. I'll take a blizzard or some flooding anyday over 200mph winds.
Some of those pictures look like storm surge damage, they are really close to the ocean their, and what are the building codes like where these pictures were taken?
194. Tcwx2
Where do you see 94 on this map? Am I just crazy or what?
Quoting 162. HurricaneFan:

The Southeast may bask in some summerlike heat in mid-March, according to the GFS. 94 degrees is expected in Southeastern Georgia.
that groundhog is responsible for this Fiji devastation. skin it!
Quoting 195. islander101010:

that groundhog is responsible for this Fiji devastation. skin it!


Living in the middle of an active hurricane zone is responsible for Fiji's devastation.
Quoting 152. tiggerhurricanes2001:


What's that low doing there?


Frontal low. Don't get too excited.
Good Morning. It was great seeing Dr. Forbes and others last night on TWC discussing the details related to the Alabama Vortex project. The Torcon values for Alabama today were rated at 3 by Dr. Forbes so they do not have as much activity to work with as the last severe weather event that caused several deaths and massive destruction. It's a double-edged sword; the researchers would probably want an outbreak of some kind to be able to collect more data but the human toll with a large outbreak is too high of a price to pay for the sake of on-site research.

Here is the current look, forecast, and convective outlook:





Not much jet stream forcing over Alabama today per GFS hence the slight risk value for today from SPC for that region. At least it will be spring-like weather for them as the researchers go out in search of severe cells:

Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database

The biggest weather story for Conus today will be in the Mid-West and NE with the snow and rain/sleet mix for a large swatch as the northern lows push East and the rain in the Pacific NW:

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
322 AM EST Tue Mar 01 2016

Valid 12Z Tue Mar 01 2016 - 12Z Thu Mar 03 2016

...There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Lower
Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, and Southeast...

...Heavy rain for parts of the Pacific Northwest Coast...

...Heavy snow over the Northern Cascades...

...Snow from parts of the Great Lakes to Northern New England...




Central Great Lakes sector loop







Wonder if the weather will affect turnout in Arkansas and Tennessee.



It's weird to see individual severe storms behind the main line.
203. vis0
Quoting 188. PedleyCA:


I reported that issue to support, it seems it is more wide spread....
for the record on zilly blog pg.7 cmmnt@343
back to weather
our good friends the aussie's gave their latest enso update......

El Niño continues to influence global climate as it weakens
Issued on 1 March 2016 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00
The 2015–16 El Niño is now at moderate levels, and is likely to end in the second quarter of 2016. History and model outlooks indicate that neutral conditions are slightly favoured ahead of La Niña for the second half of 2016. Short term fluctuations in the various El Niño Indicators will continue, particularly during the southern tropical cyclone season.
The past fortnight has seen sea surface and below-surface cooling in the central tropical Pacific Ocean. The Nino3.4 index, a key El Niño Indicator, is now below +2 °C for the first time since September 2015, suggesting moderate El Niño levels. Likewise, the Southern Oscillation Index remains negative at moderate levels. A recent temporary weakening of the trade winds has only slightly slowed the decline of El Niño
Although the 2015–16 El Niño is weakening, it will continue to influence global climate during the southern hemisphere autumn. In Australia, the breakdown of strong El Niño events has historically brought average to above average rainfall to many locations. However, northern Australia typically sees less rainfall than usual.
Australia's climate is also being influenced by record warm temperatures in the Indian Ocean. The warmth in the Indian Ocean may provide extra moisture for rain systems as they cross Australia during the southern autumn.
Quoting 156. tiggerhurricanes2001:


I just have this gut feeling that we will see a May storm, or at least another pre-season storm.


The only thing gut feelings are good for is whether or not you're about to mess your pants
Quoting 204. luvtogolf:

It is sad and embarrassing that in 12 hours or so, the Democratic Party will have Hilary Bill Clinton as their candidate for President. Looks like the uneducated and misinformed are turning out in droves to vote for her. Good luck with that in November.


and would you say that the others sides endorsement of trump speaks any differently?
Quoting 204. luvtogolf:

It is sad and embarrassing that in 12 hours or so, the Democratic Party will have Hilary Bill Clinton as their candidate for President. Looks like the uneducated and misinformed are turning out in droves to vote for her. Good luck with that in November.


It's depressing. I'm not a huge fan of Bernie because I'm a Libertarian but he deserved it over Clinton. Killary is nothing but a liar and a disgrace. Same with Trump. It's sick how many sheep are in this country. Speaking of me being Libertarian, I'm not old enough to vote, but Gary Johnson for president 2k16 pls. The fact that it's going to be Trump vs Clinton... can it get any worse?
Donald J. TrumpVerified account
‏@realDonaldTrump
The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing non-competitive.
Quoting 194. Tcwx2:

Where do you see 94 on this map? Am I just crazy or what?


Map is at 18z so it isn't at the hottest time of the day, just before it. With that said, that forecast is so far in the future I wouldn't pay it any mind.
Quoting 209. ricderr:

Donald J. TrumpVerified account
%u200F@realDonaldTrump
The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing non-competitive.


I don't know whether to laugh, cringe, or just break down crying because my IQ probably has dropped like an elevator after reading that. Sike, I've known about that dumb remark but it's nothing surprising from Trump.
Quoting 209. ricderr:

Donald J. TrumpVerified account
‏@realDonaldTrump
The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing non-competitive.
That can't be a real quote.....please tell me that's not a real quote.
Quoting 212. LuckySD:

That can't be a real quote.....please tell me that's not a real quote.



it is a real quote......after the backlash he received over it he then commented that it was a joke.....
Quoting 212. LuckySD:

That can't be a real quote.....please tell me that's not a real quote.


It is indeed real. A terrible, scary type of real.
Quoting 207. ricderr:



and would you say that the others sides endorsement of trump speaks any differently?
The sad fact is that this country shuns intelligence and embraces ignorance. Trump sounds like a throwback to the Weimar Republic and Hillary is nothing but a repeat of the corporate shills of past. This election is sad.

Wx related: What ever happened to the El Nino here in Florida. We had a few rounds of storms, but it's been warm and dry for the most part. The next 10 days are forecast to be in the 80s here with 87 and 88 popping up 3/8 and 3/9.
Quoting 204. luvtogolf:

It is sad and embarrassing that in 12 hours or so, the Democratic Party will have Hilary Bill Clinton as their candidate for President. Looks like the uneducated and misinformed are turning out in droves to vote for her. Good luck with that in November.
Its also sad you bring politics on the blog..Please dont...It starts slow, but escalates quick.
Quoting 207. ricderr:



and would you say that the others sides endorsement of trump speaks any differently?


To be honest, I'm not a big fan of any candidate from either side. I would take Sanders over Clinton any day. Kind of depressing.
Quoting 207. ricderr:



and would you say that the others sides endorsement of trump speaks any differently?


This election is truly a worst case scenario either way for Americans.

Either way you cast your vote, you will be making concessions and choosing the between the lesser of two evils.

It is truly disgusting that among all of the amazing and worthy citizens of this country for the position, we are left with this 3 ring circus to choose from. All the while the fate of mine and everyone else's children hang on the whims of a lying criminal and a self loathing narcissist.
Quoting 214. Articuno:



It is indeed real. A terrible, scary type of real.


Quoting 215. SouthTampa:

The sad fact is that this country shuns intelligence and embraces ignorance. Trump sounds like a throwback to the Weimar Republic and Hillary is nothing but a repeat of the corporate shills of past. This election is sad.

Wx related: What ever happened to the El Nino here in Florida. We had a few rounds of storms, but it's been warm and dry for the most part. The next 10 days are forecast to be in the 80s here with 87 and 88 popping up 3/8 and 3/9.


Agreed.

Sad fact is the biggest problem facing this country over the past 16 years has been Congress collectively and the lobbyists that have been in firm control of it. Meanwhile the IQ of the average Joe in this country continues to plummet as most people in this day and age would rather just accept the fact of what people tell them is true than to do a little research and see the world for what it is...

Meanwhile our generation has a front row seat as to what is on the horizon for all of us...
Quoting 218. olivojoe:



This election is truly a worst case scenario either way for Americans.

Either way you cast your vote, you will be making concessions and choosing the between the lesser of two evils.

It is truly disgusting that among all of the amazing and worthy citizens of this country for the position, we are left with this 3 ring circus to choose from. All the while the fate of mine and everyone else's children hang on the whims of a lying criminal and a self loathing narcissist.


kakistocracy ‎(plural kakistocracies)

---Government under the control of a nation's worst or least-qualified citizens.
Quoting 216. hydrus:

Its also sad you bring politics on the blog..Please dont...It starts slow, but escalates quick.


Not much going on right now in terms of our main topic. What else is there to talk about?
I'm usually against talking politics on this blog, but it's important now that both our nominees are absolute embarrassments of candidates.
Quoting 219. ILwthrfan:





Agreed.

Sad fact is the biggest problem facing this country over the past 16 years has been Congress collectively and the lobbyists that have been in firm control of it. Meanwhile the IQ of the average Joe in this country continues to plummet as most people in this day and age would rather just accept the fact of what people tell them is true than to do a little research and see the world for what it is...

Meanwhile our generation has a front row seat as to what is on the horizon for all of us...
You have been here a long time, but i do not know which generation you are from..Which is it.?..If it is ok to ask..
Quoting 223. hydrus:

You have been here a long time, but i do not know which generation you are from..Which is it.?..If it is ok to ask..


Been a member here since 2008, paid member since 2010. Generation Y Born in 1982. :)
Quoting 224. ILwthrfan:



Been a member here since 2008, paid member since 2010. Generation Y Born in 1982. :)
I kinda figured you were in your thirties..:)
Looks like I'll be participating in the SR520 carwash today...

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA

EVERETT AND VICINITY-TACOMA AREA-BELLEVUE AND VICINITY- SEATTLE AND VICINITY-BREMERTON AND VICINITY-
341 AM PST TUE MAR 1 2016

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PST THIS EVENING...

* WIND...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

* SOME AFFECTED LOCATIONS...SEATTLE...TACOMA...EVERETT... BELLEVUE...AND BREMERTON.

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY.

* IMPACTS...WINDS THIS STRONG CAN SNAP SMALL TREE BRANCHES... TOPPLE SMALL OR SHALLOW ROOTED TREES...AND CAUSE LOCAL POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 39 MPH AND/OR GUSTS OF 45 TO 57 MPH ARE LIKELY OR OCCURRING. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.
In this country there is one Political Party that gives Science the finger.

If one dosen't now who that is, well,...your gonna get mo of the same.

Semper Fi'

Be super careful if you're planning a trip into the back country today!

An Excerpt from our local Seattle NWS Discussion:

SHORT TERM...

A WARM FRONT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME...RESULTING IN LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ON THE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS. IT WAS STILL SNOWING HARD ON MOUNT RAINIER...WHERE PARADISE /ON THE SOUTH SLOPE AT AN ELEVATION NEAR 5500 FEET/ WAS RECEIVING 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW PER HOUR. THE TEMP AT PARADISE WAS 32 DEGREES...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB THIS MORNING. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN HERE BY LATE THIS MORNING.

THE SNOW WAS FINALLY STARTING TO PICK UP AT MOUNT BAKER AND WILL BECOME HEAVY THIS MORNING. THE FAR NORTH CASCADES WILL STAY IN THE COLD AIR A LITTLE LONGER...THUS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS UPGRADED TO A WARNING. MOUNT BAKER SKI AREA WILL LIKELY SEE ABOUT A FOOT OF SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO RAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

PLEASE NOTE THAT THE NORTHWEST AVALANCHE CENTER HAS AN AVALANCHE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE OLYMPICS AND CASCADES TODAY FOR DANGEROUS BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE CONDITIONS. PLEASE VISIT WWW.NWAC.US FOR MORE DETAILS.

IN ADDITION TO THE LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION...EXPECT STRONG... GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS MORNING OR IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE COAST AND PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR. THE MODELS INDICATED LESS WIND OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR AND HOOD CANAL AREA...THUS THE WIND ADVISORY ISSUED EARLIER WAS CANCELLED. EXPECT THE GUSTY WINDS TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING. THE COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO A PARADE OF PACIFIC STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA ON WED FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS. THU LOOKS LIKE A SHOWERY DAY ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

Quoting 216. hydrus:

Its also sad you bring politics on the blog..Please dont...It starts slow, but escalates quick.
Just like El Nino !!!
Politics in the context of a way forward to reduce and move away from Fossil Fuels is welcomed.

This election may determine that future for the next 1000 years.

Yes,it is that important.

If you think not..I suggest a read of Dr. Ricky Roods current Climate Change entry.

The wunderblogs are much more than just here.



Can't wait too see what happens too night in the voting the last Super Tuesday had a tornado outbreak
I stated here with the linked ReliefWEB story yesterday that it was a Humanitarian Emergency.



REPORT from International Federation of Red Cross And Red Crescent Societies Published on 29 Feb 2016

This Emergency Appeal seeks CHF 7 million on a preliminary basis to enable the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) to support the Fiji Red Cross Society (FRCS) to deliver assistance and support to some 38,500 people for 12 months, with a focus on the following sectors:

Assessments; Shelter and settlements; Health; Water, Sanitation and Hygiene promotion (WASH);
Livelihoods; Restoring family links (RFL), Community preparedness and risk reduction, and National Society institutional preparedness and capacity development. The Appeal budget also includes CHF 177,216 to support the IFRC's role as convenor of the shelter cluster coordination. The planned response reflects the current situation and information available at this time of the evolving operation, and will be adjusted based on further developments and more detailed assessments.

Download PDF (761.85 KB)
IBM should get a Team together to Help relive Fiji.

Get some out the Boardroom to see how the World actually works.

You may learn a thing or 400 that could Help your Company downstream as well.




What was the maximum temperature in Sydney, Australia on February 29, 2016?
Quoting 236. DCSwithunderscores:

What was the maximum temperature in Sydney, Australia on February 29?


You no you that you find the answer too that March faster if you looked it up on your own
Quoting 232. Patrap:

Politics in the context of a way forward to reduce and move away from Fossil Fuels is welcomed.

This election may determine that future for the next 1000 years.

Yes,it is that important.

If you think not..I suggest a read of Dr. Ricky Roods current Climate Change entry.

The wunderblogs are much more than just here.




Just finished Dr. Roods blog post... looks like the accountants have out flanked us again! We are so screwed.. It appears more and more, that so long as ANYTHING is profitable, and any ancillary benefit to the community does not threaten the aforementioned profitability, the general populace may be allowed to benefit (in addition to the private jet and mega yacht builders...) We have willingly signed away our collective heart and soul and continue rapidly toward the cliff edge where the only barricade is (was) principles and selfless pursuit of truth. imho.... (kicks soap box in frustration)
Quoting 208. Articuno:



It's depressing. I'm not a huge fan of Bernie because I'm a Libertarian but he deserved it over Clinton. Killary is nothing but a liar and a disgrace. Same with Trump. It's sick how many sheep are in this country. Speaking of me being Libertarian, I'm not old enough to vote, but Gary Johnson for president 2k16 pls. The fact that it's going to be Trump vs Clinton... can it get any worse?


This isn't meant to be condescending in any way, but as you get older you'll grow to discover why libertarianism is just like any other "ism" out there: Good in theory, not so good in practice. We have not advanced enough as a species to be able to handle systems that fundamentally rely on human altruism without them breaking down and/or being abused.

What we end up doing is creating "hybrid" systems which MOST people will follow because it appeals to one or more aspects of human nature, but not so unregulated as to allow human nature to run rampant. We have democratic socialism as opposed to pure communism. We have representative republics as opposed to pure democracies. We do this to try reduce the various weaknesses of the systems and human nature (mob rule, greed, fear, etc.). Some of these hybrids work better and last longer than others, but no system is perfect. Without constant vigilance against the darker side of humanity, all systems become corrupted.

I disagree with libertarianism for the same reasons why I disagree with communism. It's not that they are inherently "bad" or "stupid". It's because I've lived long enough and seen enough of humanity and the world to realize that those principles simply will not work in practice and/or at large scales. Maybe in another thousand years or so (if we make it that long) we'll be able to handle it but right now we're too young and immature as a species for such systems to work.

In regards to this election though, this is the worst bunch of candidates I've seen in any election thus far in my lifetime. The 1920's era anti-science/anti-education crap (and the apparent inability to do simple math) along with the general "carpet bomb them" foreign policy mentality on the republican side makes them completely un-electable. On the dem side we have a crazy old coot who's key message seems to be "GET OFF MY LAWN!" and a used car saleswoman trying to convince you that the broken down rusted out crap box in the lot is really a bargain deal. The saving graces there are that the dems aren't deliberately trying to sabotage and destroy the institutions of science and education, and also wouldn't tell Fiji "sucks to be you" after a catastrophic hurricane impact that was possibly exacerbated by warming ocean temperatures and sea level rise.

Either way, I guess it doesn't matter much with a Stonewall Congress remaining entrenched. Actions on climate change will simply be stalled for another 4 years while republicans bring in snowballs and claim privatizing national science organizations like NOAA will bring nothing but rainbows and ponies to the world. Another four years of groups like the hurricane hunters begging for scraps so they can keep things up and running. Maybe DC getting smacked by a CAT 5 would knock some sense into Congress.

Really this is an election of who sucks less. But the idea of a Trump presidency is so appalling I'd be forced to vote dem just to prevent it from happening. :P
Quoting 162. HurricaneFan:

The Southeast may bask in some summerlike heat in mid-March, according to the GFS. 94 degrees is expected in Southeastern Georgia.


90s aren't that uncommon in the southeast in March with strong sun and still bare trees. The DC area has reached 90 a few times in March and upper 80s are common enough to be expected a few times a decade. 90s in April are also expected a few times a decade and again, usually we are not well leafed out by that time so there is more sensible and less latent heating.

Quoting 86. NativeSun:

Yes I agree with you on this, but how do we know how high the sea level rise will be in the future. if it's only a few inches, it will have a minor impact, but not as bad as most of the gloom and doom bloggers on here suggest.

As others have pointed out as the oceans continue to heat up the water expands causing sea level rise. That account for around half of SLR.

The other half comes from melting ice sheets and glaciers. As the world continues to get warmer they will melt more and more. But there is a lag time built into the melting of ice. If you put an ice cube out on your kitchen counter it doesn't melt instantly but takes time to melt. In the same way ice sheets and glaciers will take time to catch up with the warmth they're already exposed to. Once the warming stops it will take several centuries for the worlds ice sheets and glaciers to reach a new equilibrium with the elevated temperatures. So sea level rise will continue for at least several centuries and in the long run will be measured in multiple feet. The last time CO2 on Earth was at 400 ppm sea level was over 60 feet higher than it is today. It may be that much SLR is already baked in and it's just a matter of time how long it takes to get there.
Don't mind lil old me over here.After whatever falls Thursday night into Friday it will only add to the muddy mess that was once a yard.I can't even walk on the ground without my shoes feeling there about to cave into it and CWG is expecting a rather rainy March....UGH!
Quoting 236. DCSwithunderscores:

What was the maximum temperature in Sydney, Australia on February 29, 2016?
It was 77 degrees
Quoting 242. washingtonian115:

Don't mind lil old me over here.After whatever falls Thursday night into Friday it will only add to the muddy mess that was once a yard.I can't even walk on the ground without my shoes feeling there about to cave into it and CWG is expecting a rather rainy March....UGH!
The six seasons: spring, summer, fall, taint, winter, and mud.
Quoting 244. TheBigBanana:

The six seasons: spring, summer, fall, taint, winter, and mud.


In Panhandle Florida the seasons were late Fall, Spring, Summer(1), Hades (no temperate analog!) , Summer(2), and Fall. :-)

Soggy mud is normal here in early Spring. Winter 2001-02 was so alarmingly dry that the topsoil never saturated and was workable all winter and early spring. This was alarming esp. coming off a long fall drought in 2001.

I think also it was March 2006 that had virtually no rain or snow in DC. But this is the exception.. usually in early spring it's just cold sodden sloppy mud.
Quoting 215. SouthTampa:

The sad fact is that this country shuns intelligence and embraces ignorance. Trump sounds like a throwback to the Weimar Republic and Hillary is nothing but a repeat of the corporate shills of past. This election is sad.

Wx related: What ever happened to the El Nino here in Florida. We had a few rounds of storms, but it's been warm and dry for the most part. The next 10 days are forecast to be in the 80s here with 87 and 88 popping up 3/8 and 3/9.
Someone posted the map of Super Tuesday states a little earlier. Adding the ones that already voted, one might note a certain Southern and rural tilt. That may make sense for Republicans since without a solid South they can't win, but it seems odd for the Democrats to have their nominee decided to a great extent by primary/caucus voters in states they're unlikely to win in November.

As everyone knows the promised El Nino deluge hasn't happened for California, with our old friend the ridge wanting to build in for much of the time such that we're on track for no better than an average rainy season. IIRC at one point earlier in the winter the ridge actually got to be the strongest ever recorded in that location, although it didn't last. Kevin Trenberth commented a couple weeks ago that it looks as if the storms simply lacked the expected push to overcome the ridging tendency, and that this appeared to be a consequence of an unusually warm tropical eastern Indian Ocean preventing the warm pool from cooling off the way it normally would in an El Nino. But presumably that would have affected things elsewhere, perhaps in Florida too.

More sgnificant to me is that the ridging appears to have become a persistent feature such that La Nina and ENSO-neutral years going forward will be very dry in California, with downstream effects from the storm track being pushed north. It's like a whole new climate.

A big reason I'm saying that is because of the tree ring records showing some very nasty multi-decadal megadroughts in the Southwest over the last thousand years. While not a basis for predicting future climate, they tell us that such things can occur without anthropogenic forcing, which is to say that the climate state we may have thought of as eternal is in fact pretty ephemeral.

But that shouldn't be a surprise based on deeper-time paleoclimate data. In the mid-Pliocene of about 3 million years ago, the last time CO2 was at approximately current levels (maybe even a bit lower), global average surface temperatures were about 2-3C higher than at present with sea levels about 25 meters higher. So pushing CO2 up to 400 ppm is commanding the climate to return to those conditions, which it will do inexorably. Actually it will do rather more than that since on what looks to be our best-possible pace CO2 will top out no lower than about 550 ppm, a level that hasn't been seen the late Eocene, a time of little or no permanent ice.
TASMANIA - NEW RECORD HOTTEST SUMMER: Summer (Dec-Jan-Feb) of 2015-2016 is the record hottest summer in Tasmania State, Australia.

Link
Quoting 247. DCSwithunderscores:

TASMANIA - NEW RECORD HOTTEST SUMMER: Summer (Dec-Jan-Feb) of 2015-2016 is the record hottest summer in Tasmania State, Australia.

Link


I like that the Sydney Morning Herald is smh.com :)
Quoting 204. luvtogolf:

It is sad and embarrassing that in 12 hours or so, the Democratic Party will have Hilary Bill Clinton as their candidate for President. Looks like the uneducated and misinformed are turning out in droves to vote for her. Good luck with that in November.
I have been in trial all morning since I posted this am; It is sad and embarrassing that one of the Republican candidates it an outright climate change-global warming denialist in the wake of scientific evidence to the contrary (the same person who read Green Eggs & Ham in the halls of Congress for several hours). 
250. MahFL
Last time I commented about politics I got banned.....interesting to see political comments still flowing...
251. MahFL
Quoting 246. spbloom:

As everyone knows the promised El Nino deluge hasn't happened for California....


Er, 8 inches of rain and 2 feet of snow is forecast Sun through Tue.
252. JRRP
lmao
253. elioe
Horrible amount of damage in Fiji indeed.

Someone said, that climate revisionists are responsible for the destruction by Winston. Well, climate change has affected all weather, but still, weather isn't climate. It could as well be said that I'm responsible, not revisionists. Surely I've caused so many small initial disturbances in the atmosphere with my movements during my lifetime, that Winston couldn't have happened without me.

But if we accept some kinds of moral implications for Winston through climate change, I'd put it this way: Assume that a Cat 5 landfall in Fiji has now a 1/100 annual probability. Assume that it had 1/200 in pre-anthropogenic climate. Half of the probability would be due to man, therefore half of damage should be allotted to individuals relative to the total amount of CO2 emitted directly or indirectly due to their consumption.

And the Arctic situation is extraordinary. I'd say 51% chance of reaching the lowest sea ice minimum this year (so far). I'm not believing Arctic to be ice-free this year, but not many years will pass until that happens.

Now, continue with U.S. politics, this foreigner fades to background... ->
Quoting 250. MahFL:

Last time I commented about politics I got banned.....interesting to see political comments still flowing...
Gotta know when to hold 'em...
Quoting 252. JRRP:

lmao


Am i blind or what??
In the new Earth Atmosphere 2.O...we will see it continue to warm and continue to add energy to the whole system


2016, Rise of the AGW forcing's.

Quoting 232. Patrap:

Politics in the context of a way forward to reduce and move away from Fossil Fuels is welcomed.

This election may determine that future for the next 1000 years.

Yes,it is that important.

If you think not..I suggest a read of Dr. Ricky Roods current Climate Change entry.

The wunderblogs are much more than just here.






If anyone really thinks that this election circus really matters anymore is not facing reality. What we all face on planet earth is a constant cover up of cataclysmic proportions. The ones in power have always used our planet for there intended purposes, and now we all face near term extinction. The future for the next 1000 years really, how about mankind's future for the next 10 years. We all are past the turning point and headed off the cliff with whatever you want to call it Climate Change, Global Warming or planetary meltdown. Another political clown and more regulations will do nothing. We all need to get real now, not tomorrow and face reality. The future is dim and if we stay on the same normalcy bias we all are headed for near term extinction.
Quoting 233. Tazmanian:

Can't wait too see what happens too night in the voting the last Super Tuesday had a tornado outbreak

Super Tuesday: 22 Million Face Extreme Weather
NBC, by Alastair Jamieson

Good luck, US! I'm already missing Obama, climatewise (to stay on topic, lol).
254. tiggerhurricanes2001
12:14 PM EST on March 01, 2016
Not to sound mean but can you all stop posting that map every hour on the hour.It is still March so sst are not going to look as though they should support a category 5.Wait until late July and August to be concerned about anything forming that way near Africa.If the sst profile still looks like that in August then it is time to be concerned.
Quoting 260. washingtonian115:

254. tiggerhurricanes2001
12:14 PM EST on March 01, 2016
Not to sound mean but can you all stop posting that map every hour on the hour.It is still March so sst are not going to look as though they should support a category 5.Wait until late July and August to be concerned about anything forming that way near Africa.If the sst profile still looks like that in August then it is time to be concerned.

Last time i checked i'd could post any weather related topic. If you have a problem with what, there's nothing i can do about that. FYI:I don't post these maps every morning (not trying to sound mean).
252. JRRP
12:12 PM EST on March 01, 2016
Might as well :)
Quoting 251. MahFL:



Er, 8 inches of rain and 2 feet of snow is forecast Sun through Tue.
Weather is not climate, and one storm does not make a season. As of this moment, we're behind *average* precip for this date. The storm you point to and several more like it during the next month or so would get us into the average range. This is important because California needs very wet years to make up for the increasingly prevalent dry ones (trend since about 2000), and even a record El Nino isn't giving us one. By March 1 of '82-3 and '97-8 we were pretty much swimming.

Also, I don't know where those numbers you mention come from, but I'm sure they're not state-wide figures. Where I am (Oakland) e.g. the forecast is for less than 3" in the next week, although if we're getting that much there are certainly coastal mountain locations that will get 8" or more.

That said, what we care about most are the major reservoir watersheds. Those should do well out of the next couple weeks, although the difficulty with March is that too much of what they get may be rain rather than the preferred snow. As things stand, we appear likely to be entering the dry season with full reservoirs but a relatively small snow pack, not at all what we were hoping for.
Quoting 254. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Looks bad if we want and active season.
NEW HAMPSHIRE'S CAPITOL - NEW RECORD WARMEST WINTER: Winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) of 2015-2016 is the record warmest winter in Concord NH.

Link
Quoting 264. Gearsts:

Looks bad if we want and active season.

Well it is March. Trade winds have been really strong.
Quoting 264. Gearsts:

Looks bad if we want and active season.

Well it is March. Trade winds have been really strong.
Quoting 252. JRRP:

lmao



Interesting...probably gone by the next run.

Nice deep moisture tap taking shape near the Phillipines for the upcoming "atmospheric river" event beginning Saturday along the California coast. Local forecasters have heavy rain with periods of high winds extending over several days, perhaps even weeks. March 13 or thereabouts may be a particularly copious storm. All will likely be high elevation snow due to the subtropical tap.
12Z GFS has 175" of snow the next 10 days for one location in the Sierra's. I'm not so sure about that but it does max out the legend and paints 4'+ for a sizable area in the mountains.



Quoting 273. StAugustineFL:

12Z GFS has 175" of snow the next 10 days for one location in the Sierra's. I'm not so sure about that but it does max out the legend and paints 4'+ for a sizable area in the mountains.






WOW!
Quoting 250. MahFL:

Last time I commented about politics I got banned.....interesting to see political comments still flowing...


It is super Tuesday and what happens today has a great impact on our future including weather related.
Quoting 249. weathermanwannabe:

I have been in trial all morning since I posted this am; It is sad and embarrassing that one of the Republican candidates it an outright climate change-global warming denialist in the wake of scientific evidence to the contrary (the same person who read Green Eggs & Ham in the halls of Congress for several hours).


I love green eggs and ham but not a fan of the man with the gold hair.
Quoting 266. washingtonian115:
No one told you to stop posting weather related comments.These sst anomaly maps have been posted a dozen times.
Hey Washi, did you ever notice that SPAM is MAPS spelled backwards?


Last Day of the hot weather and winding down to normal (69/45)
Quoting 284. PedleyCA:


Last Day of the hot weather and winding down to normal (69/45)

We're supposed to be near 80 today.
Quoting 278. Bucsboltsfan:



Vote for Ross Perot.
Can someone post a ten day and and a 384 hour precipitation map that includes west coast of United States? Looks like a lot of rain and snow headed for west coast and I just want to see how much. Thanks!
Time for a new blog.

Weather is beautiful down here in S.W. Florida. I've got 80 degrees with lots of sunshine.
Quoting 290. Trouper415:

Can someone post a ten day and and a 384 hour precipitation map that includes west coast of United States? Looks like a lot of rain and snow headed for west coast and I just want to see how much. Thanks!


That's a long way out and things can certainly change but it does look like the west coast is in for some soild rain and snow.
Here's the entire U.S. I was curious about all of the U.S.
Quoting 274. ncstorm:

As an African American woman who is democratic I urged my fellow party members to get out and VOTE as if your life depended on it.

We are living in dangerous times to think that Donald Trump could actually be the next President. God help some of us if that came to be fact.

Just know that Democrats will lose the election ONLY because of low voter turnout. If your ideology is that your vote doesn't count then you have only yourself to blame if we have a egotistical pompous jacka** with his hand on the button in the White House for the next 4 years..
The US is doing sooooo good now I could see where you would want another Dem in office. I would vote anyone in office besides who the Dems have running for the position.
Quoting 295. blueyedbiker:

The US is doing sooooo good now I could see where you would want another Dem in office. I would vote anyone in office besides who the Dems have running for the position.



The US is doing far better now than 8 years ago, dontcha think?
I have a subscription to Popular Science Magazine. This was some encouraging news. Hopefully this trend will continue.

HOW THE WORLD'S FORESTS ARE CHANGING [INTERACTIVE]
THE FUTURE OF TREES IS LOOKING UP


"The global rate of forest loss has dropped 50 percent in five years."
Link


Quoting 251. MahFL:



Er, 8 inches of rain and 2 feet of snow is forecast


Probably the usual suspects as far as the 8 - 10 inches of rain goes: Gasquet, Honeydew ... these are normal totals for the usual storms that roll in Feb or Mar.
Quoting 298. Dakster:



And a different one that is now legal in a few states.

Anchorage is so snow starved that they are bringing snow in by TRAIN for the ceremonial start of the iditarod here...




Didn't they have to do that last year (or it was two years ago)? But I think it was towards the end of the race (Nome?)
Dat -AO
This a GREAT Sierra Nevada snowfall forecast I just found

https://opensnow.com/dailysnow/tahoe#

Enjoy!!
Quoting 299. Sfloridacat5:

I have a subscription to Popular Science Magazine. This was some encouraging news. Hopefully this trend will continue.

HOW THE WORLD'S FORESTS ARE CHANGING [INTERACTIVE]
THE FUTURE OF TREES IS LOOKING UP


"The global rate of forest loss has dropped 50 percent in five years."
Link





That's definitely great news. I've seen the evidence of it here in the U.S., specifically in Florida. You'll see a lot of rows of trees in rural areas that were replanted in place of the original growth that was cut down.

Unfortunately though, the article notes that deforestation isn't improving in a lot of tropical areas where it's very important. This is mostly due to governments that are either too corrupt to care, or too weak to regulate it. But it's great to see overall significant global improvement.

Unfortunately, corruption in the U.N. often leads to the U.S. and Europe being pressured the most even though both areas continue to improve, while some of the worst areas get a bypass be cause they are "developing countries", which we all know is a lame excuse. I would argue developing countries should get less of a break, because they are adding new industry. It's easier to start from scratch and add a better method, than to change everything in a country already built in the past on older methods.
Effective May 15, 2016, the NWS will expand its mixed-case text
Product Risk Reduction effort to include an additional product
(Table 1) issued by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical
Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB).


Table 1: NHC Additional Products

Product Name WMO Header AWIPS ID
------------ ---------- --------

Tropical Weather Discussion AXNT20 KNHC TWDAT
(Atlantic)

Tropical Weather Discussion AXPZ20 KNHC TWDEP
(Eastern Pacific)
Quoting 284. PedleyCA:


Last Day of the hot weather and winding down to normal (69/45)


Nice and Balmy down my way!

Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA. SSSSD (SDGE)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Tue, 01 Mar 11:55 am PST
Most Recent Observation: Tue, 01 Mar 11:40 am
Explanation of Wx and Clouds columns.
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PST) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
01 Mar 11:40 am 77 29 17 S 9G24 OK
Quoting 291. Sfloridacat5:

Time for a new blog.

Weather is beautiful down here in S.W. Florida. I've got 80 degrees with lots of sunshine.


We are 75 here and I'm loving it, it's a great reminder that i have spring break next week back home in the Tampa Bay area. We usually get our last gasp of winter in late February, and that's basically how it's gone recently.
I like a period of cooler weather from December to February., but I'm still a Floridian at heart, so I enjoy a much longer warm season of 8-9 months like we usually see. Even though Spring isn't technically until March 21st via angle of sunlight. March 1st is the meteorological beginning of spring in Florida. And most years, there's a notable difference in warmth between early March and late February in Florida.
Quoting 284. PedleyCA:


Last Day of the hot weather and winding down to normal (69/45)


What's that stuff coming from the bottom of the clouds on Sun/Mon?
Quoting 288. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Now you've done it!!!! Have i even insulted you??? You need to watch your mouth. PS: I'M NOT A LITTLE BOY. I can post any weather related picture if i want too.


Your post is leaking irony at a substantial rate.

Just sayin...
They are turning my once quite neighborhood into a crowded nightmare.The once beautiful dog park which had lovely flowers growing over it in the spring now has a tacky looking condo sitting on top of it.We tried our best to protect it but the city over ran us and now what they're building is the end result.D.C doesn't care about the environment,just who is the next developer who has the most money.
Quoting 253. elioe:

Horrible amount of damage in Fiji indeed.

Someone said, that climate revisionists are responsible for the destruction by Winston. Well, climate change has affected all weather, but still, weather isn't climate. It could as well be said that I'm responsible, not revisionists. Surely I've caused so many small initial disturbances in the atmosphere with my movements during my lifetime, that Winston couldn't have happened without me.

But if we accept some kinds of moral implications for Winston through climate change, I'd put it this way: Assume that a Cat 5 landfall in Fiji has now a 1/100 annual probability. Assume that it had 1/200 in pre-anthropogenic climate. Half of the probability would be due to man, therefore half of damage should be allotted to individuals relative to the total amount of CO2 emitted directly or indirectly due to their consumption.

And the Arctic situation is extraordinary. I'd say 51% chance of reaching the lowest sea ice minimum this year (so far). I'm not believing Arctic to be ice-free this year, but not many years will pass until that happens.

Now, continue with U.S. politics, this foreigner fades to background... ->


Great example, I don't for the life of me understand why so many people ignore spending just a few minutes of attention to learn basic understanding of probability. A lot of people that deny the existence of man influenced warming attempt to claim anyone who believes it is attributing weather disasters directly on the changing climate. Even though the science stresses that it increases the probability. It's like saying the existence of the month of September is directly responsible for a given hurricane event, even though September simply increases the probability compared to other months.
Quoting 312. Jedkins01:



Your post is leaking irony at a substantial rate.

Just sayin...

I didn't ask you hahaha.....
Quoting 312. Jedkins01:



Your post is leaking irony at a substantial rate.

Just sayin...

I didn't ask you hahaha.....
Quoting 313. washingtonian115:

They are turning my once quite neighborhood into a crowded nightmare.The once beautiful dog park which had lovely flowers growing over it in the spring now has a tacky looking condo sitting on top of it.We tried our best to protect it but the city over ran us and now what they're building is the end result.D.C doesn't care about the environment,just who is the next developer who has the most money.

You got mail.
Quoting 313. washingtonian115:

They are turning my once quite neighborhood into a crowded nightmare.The once beautiful dog park which had lovely flowers growing over it in the spring now has a tacky looking condo sitting on top of it.We tried our best to protect it but the city over ran us and now what they're building is the end result.D.C doesn't care about the environment,just who is the next developer who has the most money.


It can be very difficult and heartbreaking at times. When I first moved to S.W. Florida about 20 years ago, there was an area of forest just south of me that was set aside as protected land for the endangered Panthers. Originally "they"said the area could not be used for residential or commercial development.
Also, there were definitely Panthers in that area because they were occasionally being killed by cars. I even saw a Panther running along the tree line one morning and then it turned into the woods.

To make a long story short (or shorter), "they" out of the blue said the area no longer supported Panthers, and they opened the land up to commercial and residential building. Now the area has nothing but commercial buildings and parking lots.
And occasionally there are still Panthers sighted and hit by cars in the area.
For DC, the weekly heat wave that stands out in March is not 2012 (which lasted longer) but this period
in 1990 which killed my just seeded peas. Five days of 80 highs and three days of 85

The rest of the month was not noteworthy for warmth but the famed cherry trees peaked record early (3/15/1990) that year

date MAX MIN
19900311 69 48
19900312 89 51
19900313 87 55
19900314 86 56
19900315 81 60
19900316 81 63
19900317 72 54
19900318 64 50



Do not log out,

I did to do some maintenance on a issue with my PC,..and had to go thru 6 circles of Hades to get back in.

They be some ghosts in that re send validation thing a ma bob.


Quoting 319. Patrap:

Do not log out,

I did to do some maintenance on a issue with my PC,..and had to go thru 6 circles of Hades to get back in.

They be some ghosts in that re send validation thing a ma bob.



Ixnay on the outsign-ay ....

Currently overcast and slightly post rain here in Nassau .... seems March is starting off with yet another cold front....
.


The Scottish rainfall records are just nuts –

Scotland endures wettest winter on record after highest rainfall in more than a century

THIS winter has been the wettest on record in Scotland.

Met Office statistics show an average of 756mm of rain fell across the country during December, January and February – the highest on records stretching back to 1910.

The downpours brought severe flooding and led to hundreds of people being evacuated from their homes.

Argyllshire was the wettest area in Scotland, recording 1055.7mm of rain from December to February 24 – almost double the average of 697.5mm.

Kirkcudbrightshire also saw almost double the average rainfall, with 1025.6mm compared to 645.1mm.

Two of the last three years have brought record-breaking levels of winter rain, with this year beating the previous record set in 2013/14 of 744mm of rain.

Storms in December led to the national rainfall reaching 351.4mm, more than double the usual total for the month.


Read more at a href=" http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/sc otland-endures-wettest-winter-record-7471747#6zi3I fsdWTzrKOt3.99
" target="_blank">Link
The buggy link at 323 Link
Quoting 321. Gearsts:


what hurricane was that? Man that thing is huge! Was it Dean?
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 20h20 hours ago
CANSIPS March forecast for coming month -- March blow-torch except for an area in Florida
Heading home early but here are the current SPC reports for the last 3 hours; much less so far this time over what happened last week. Bad break for the Alabama Vortex project but a huge break for Mankind.........................................Se e Yall Tomorrow.

last3hours Reports Graphic

Quoting 326. washingtonian115:

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 20h20 hours ago
CANSIPS March forecast for coming month -- March blow-torch except for an area in Florida

It's because the trade winds will blow the heat inland and out.
329. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA / NASA / University of Washington (Final product NOT official of those 3)

Period:: 20160301;1815UTC
(~2hrs)
Area:: COnUS (western Atlantic)

AOI::  central Southern region towards SE


Dimension here 628x464 View on YouTube full 1014x755
Quoting 293. Sfloridacat5:

Here's the entire U.S. I was curious about all of the U.S.


Our local forecast office is saying that latest models are showing even greater amounts of ppt starting Saturday. The map you posted shows that all of it will be falling in all the right places, especially the Sierra Nevada. Lots of green grass around now to help anchor the soils in the Coast Ranges and Sierra foothills, but given the amounts they're talking about, there's bound to be mudslides somewhere. Par for the course.
Quoting 311. HurricaneHunterJoe:



What's that stuff coming from the bottom of the clouds on Sun/Mon?

They say it is called Rain. I had to look it up!!!
Quoting 319. Patrap:

Do not log out,

I did to do some maintenance on a issue with my PC,..and had to go thru 6 circles of Hades to get back in.

They be some ghosts in that re send validation thing a ma bob.



If you get the validation bug that says it can't send you an e-mail right now.. the easiest way back in is to log out and then log back in.

GEOS-5 forecast for widespread rain over California for Monday is holding together. It maybe followed by a heavy rainfall event for Central & Northern California.
Both the GFS and EURO Model both have a tropical system forming, but take into consideration that it's out 10 days, and they both agree for the first time, but you never know what could happen.

GFS

EURO

Been that way up here too.

RED Alert, it is gonna rain, if you can't drive, please stay home. You have my permission...........lol
Well, I learned in my Geography lecture today that the feds blackmailed Mississippi to desegregate their schools in exchange for Hurricane Camille aid.
Quoting 328. rmbjoe1954:


It's because the trade winds will blow the heat inland and out.
Yep..The first two weeks may be warm, but I believe the west ridge/east trof pattern will return the second half...jmo
Quoting 336. wxgeek723:

Well, I learned in my Geography lecture today that the feds blackmailed Mississippi to desegregate their schools in exchange for Hurricane Camille aid.


I learn something new every day I come to this blog... Today I learned that Mississippi finally desegregated their schools...
Spring break is next week, and midweek it's supposed to be absolutely beautiful. My sister is expecting so I probably won't be around for much of that. But priorities.

Quoting 338. Dakster:



I learn something new every day I come to this blog... Today I learned that Mississippi finally desegregated their schools...


Loads of schools still have segregated proms and dual homecoming king/queens. Honestly probably stemmed from never getting asked to prom/voted. Sad but likely. How this is the also called the Bible belt but this stuff still flies (albeit not on a scale like the 60's) is beyond me, but that's a discussion for private blogs/email...
Training the Red Cross for Disaster
By: Portlight , 5:02 PM CST on March 01, 2016


From this Months New Mobility Magazine

Their Cover story,

Training the Red Cross for Disaster
By Paul Timmons, Portlight Chairman March 1st, 2016

From Superstorms Katrina and Sandy to the wildfires of California and unprecedented floods of South Carolina, there has been one common refrain: The Red Cross doesn’t understand disability, and that puts our lives at risk. This is the story of how that’s about to change.

Quoting 336. wxgeek723:

Well, I learned in my Geography lecture today that the feds blackmailed Mississippi to desegregate their schools in exchange for Hurricane Camille aid.


My European point of view would say: "The government did not want to use tax-payers money to rebuild racist schools" instead of "blackmail". But then, I'm not fully aware of your type of education or schoolsystems.
Hey Dakster, I found out who stole all your SNOW!!!!
347. Tcwx2
Could not find any way to notify The Weather Channel of their mistake but I reach out to you for help. On "Daves Wow" he mentioned that Andaluisa, AL almost got wiped off the map by an EF-4 tornado on this date in 2007, however, that is incorrect. Enterprise, AL was the victim of this huge tornado, 4 high school students died in this very sad event. How can I possibly notify them of this mistake?
Quoting 346. PedleyCA:

Hey Dakster, I found out who stole all your SNOW!!!!
it wasn't me
Temperature:

15.6°F

Dewpoint:

11.3°F

Humidity:

83%

Wind:

NE 14 mph

Wind Chill:

1
Winter storm warning in effect for:
•City of Toronto

Hazardous winter conditions are expected.

Snow, heavy at times, and blowing snow is expected tonight.

Light snow and a few freezing rain have been affecting many areas in southwestern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe early this evening. However the more intense snowfall is expected to develop later this evening. Visibilities are expected to be poor in snow and blowing snow tonight as winds gust as high as 70 km/h in some locations creating whiteout conditions.

Total snowfall amounts of 15 to 25 cm are likely by Wednesday morning.

Consider postponing non-essential travel until conditions improve. Rapidly accumulating snow could make travel difficult over some locations. Visibility will be suddenly reduced to near zero at times in heavy snow and blowing snow. There may be a significant impact on rush hour traffic in urban areas.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.
Quoting 348. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

it wasn't me

So this is you(tube) ?
site check
Quoting 335. PedleyCA:


RED Alert, it is gonna rain, if you can't drive, please stay home. You have my permission...........lol


Sure buddy, sure it's gonna rain.. hey tell you what, when it's 2 days out and it's still being forecast, then I'll start getting excited. More likely though is right about tomorrow the models will start backing off the rain totals, and by the time the storm gets to SoCal and the SW, shprinkles I'll tell ya, SHPRINKLESH!

And after that, it will be.. Suprise! A ridge.
355. vis0
Quoting 332. Skyepony:

If you get the validation bug that says it can't send you an e-mail right now.. the easiest way back in is to log out and then log back in.

GEOS-5 forecast for widespread rain over California for Monday is holding together. It maybe followed by a heavy rainfall event for Central & Northern California.


through ones page.(not main pg)
Quoting 354. Mediarologist:



Sure buddy, sure it's gonna rain.. hey tell you what, when it's 2 days out and it's still being forecast, then I'll start getting excited. More likely though is right about tomorrow the models will start backing off the rain totals, and by the time the storm gets to SoCal and the SW, shprinkles I'll tell ya, SHPRINKLESH!

And after that, it will be.. Suprise! A ridge.


Quoting 354. Mediarologist:



Sure buddy, sure it's gonna rain.. hey tell you what, when it's 2 days out and it's still being forecast, then I'll start getting excited. More likely though is right about tomorrow the models will start backing off the rain totals, and by the time the storm gets to SoCal and the SW, shprinkles I'll tell ya, SHPRINKLESH!

And after that, it will be.. Suprise! A ridge.

I know exactly what you mean. I think we have much better support for this event.
Well, since I only got .55" in February, If the coming storm gives me 1.10" which looks like it might and not much more, that would be a ton...
What a wonderfully weather influenced day! I had plans to meet some friends for dinner at 5PM EST roughly half a mile walk from my place. Over various text messages, we all decided to wait until the small hail stopped falling before leaving. Around 545, we had a lovely walk in steady 20+mph winds with limited rain. However, after dinner the winds were much gustier. In fact, we joked as we enjoyed a nice tail wind all the way home! Although, it was raining on the return trip. We also shared a muffled laugh as we watched not one, but three different (presumed tourists) fight and chase umbrellas. Locals know better, hoods are the way to go.

In any case, it's official. Seattle just endured it's wettest winter in history. Whether you start measuring winter from October, November or December it's still the wettest. Thankfully both the flooding situation, and landslide probabilities are not significant considerations at the moment. However, that may change given our rather wet forecast over the next few days.

Check out Cliff Mass' Weather blog post about our most recent record.
NY STATE'S CAPITOL - NEW RECORD WARMEST WINTER: Winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) of 2015-2016 is the record warmest winter in Albany, New York.

Link
NY NJ PA Weather ‏@nynjpaweather 11h11 hours ago
As I have been stating, and now the GFS/CMC is showing, the timing is just off but a few hours for a big storm.
363. vis0


College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
TORNADO WARNING     BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 826 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING PEACHTREE CITY GA - KFFC 901 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING PEACHTREE CITY GA - KFFC 851 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING PEACHTREE CITY GA - KFFC 808 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 702 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016


Severe Warnings Issued More Than Three Hours Ago

TORNADO WARNING     BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 644 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 612 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
TORNADO WARNING     BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 544 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 527 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 504 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 420 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 417 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MORRISTOWN TN - KMRX 504 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MORRISTOWN TN - KMRX 442 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON KY - KJKL 345 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON KY - KJKL 318 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON KY - KJKL 247 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NASHVILLE TN - KOHX 120 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
TORNADO WARNING     CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL - KLOT 1000 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
TORNADO WARNING     QUAD CITIES IA IL - KDVN 1000 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
TORNADO WARNING     ST LOUIS MO - KLSX 1000 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
TORNADO WARNING     PADUCAH KY - KPAH 1000 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
TORNADO WARNING     LINCOLN IL - KILX 1000 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2016
Bye bye El Niño
BOM update

Link
Bump-down

Welcome Home to Terra Firma Scott Kelly and crew.

(file image)




It's a good thing the Wind Advisory just expired. So far reports are up to 75,000 in the Puget Sound region without power.
Quoting 364. Patrap:
Re: Tornado warnings tonight - NWS confirmed tornado reported about a half mile from my house. The warning sirens went off as it skipped through causing minor damage in Opelika, AL. No lead time whatsoever. In like a lion...
3rd snow run complete about 15 cm have fallen with 5 or 10 too come
371. 882MB
Ex-Winston, are you trying to do what I think your trying to do? I'm thinking them warmer waters of the coast of Australia is helping it re-fire convection, but the shear is keeping it in check. I will be watching just for fun the next 2 days, mother nature likes to surprise us sometimes.



Quoting 339. win1gamegiantsplease:

Spring break is next week, and midweek it's supposed to be absolutely beautiful. My sister is expecting so I probably won't be around for much of that. But priorities.



Loads of schools still have segregated proms and dual homecoming king/queens. Honestly probably stemmed from never getting asked to prom/voted. Sad but likely. How this is the also called the Bible belt but this stuff still flies (albeit not on a scale like the 60's) is beyond me, but that's a discussion for private blogs/email...


Personally, I've always thought a more appropriate name is the whiskey belt, or maybe the oil belt.

March is off to a good start, fresh collection of sticks blown all over my yard, and a healthy inch of rain as well. Temp stayed around 45%uFFFD most of the day. 8" fresh snow at Mt Baker ski area. Hope my friends down in Santa Barbara get in on this action soon.
Quoting 342. European58:



My European point of view would say: "The government did not want to use tax-payers money to rebuild racist schools" instead of "blackmail". But then, I'm not fully aware of your type of education or schoolsystems.


Oh? Well I can help you there. Picture a European school. Now under-fund it, overpopulate it, and run it like a day care while simultaneously sabotaging what little education there is by getting morons and idiots to push ideology over science and facts to kids.

Welcome to the American public school system: Churning out indentured servants since the klepto-aristocracy took over in the 70's.
Quoting 376. Xyrus2000:



Oh? Well I can help you there. Picture a European school. Now under-fund it, overpopulate it, and run it like a day care while simultaneously sabotaging what little education there is by getting morons and idiots to push ideology over science and facts to kids.

Welcome to the American public school system: Churning out indentured servants since the klepto-aristocracy took over in the 70's.

I do not believe that things are that bad .Perhaps in a few areas of the country but there still are good schools.
378. elioe

Main road 3, Partola interchange, Tampere (Finland)
9:55 local, air temperature -6.4 C, road surface temperature -4.8 C.
Quoting 357. PedleyCA:


I know exactly what you mean. I think we have much better support for this event.


I will try and stay positive for sure! Even if it remains bone dry in Soo Cal, it is going to rain up north and if it is anywhere near these figures, it will do nothng but help and may top off some lakes up north. 2-4" rain Soo Cal and up to 15" up north, some as snow above 7,000 feet....keeping my fingers crossed.

Quoting 378. elioe:


Main road 3, Partola interchange, Tampere (Finland)
9:55 local, air temperature -6.4 C, road surface temperature -4.8 C.


It still snows in Finland? :)
381. elioe
Quoting 380. HurricaneHunterJoe:



It still snows in Finland? :)


Oh yes, neither spring or climate change has advanced so far as to prevent snowing. More snow forecast on weekend.

The variability here is massive. In December, there was no snow, and temperatures hovered around 5 C. That was as warm as Midsummer 2014. Following pic is from June 17, 2014, taken from a more southern location than where I am:


(Copyright MTV Uutiset)
Good Morning. The highlights of the forecast for Conus today:

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
331 AM EST Wed Mar 02 2016

Valid 12Z Wed Mar 02 2016 - 12Z Fri Mar 04 2016

...Heavy rain over parts of the Olympic Peninsula...

...Snow for parts of the Ohio Valley...

...Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees below average over the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley to parts of the Tennessee Valley...





And the storm reports for yesterday; did not watch TWC last evening so I am not sure if the Alabama Vortex project was able to get onto the tornadoes that were actually confirmed in Alabama but they were certainly in the right State yesterday:



yesterday Filtered Reports Graphic

And finally, the current tornado spread for 2016.  So far so good for the mid-section of tornado alley (Kansas-Oklahoma-Texas, etc) due to the lower storm-front-low trajectories but we have yet to enter the peak Spring tornado season from April to June. 
385. Tcwx2

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 021007
SPC AC 021007

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0407 AM CST WED MAR 02 2016

VALID 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT A PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME DAYS 4-5 WILL
BEGIN TO AMPLIFY BY DAY 6-7 AS SYNOPTIC TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE WRN
STATES. THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
DIFFERENCES PERSIST REGARDING TIMING SMALLER SCALE FEATURES TO DELAY
INTRODUCTION OF CATEGORICAL RISK AREAS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN OPTIMAL MOISTURE RETURN DAYS 5-6.

SUNDAY /DAY 4/ DRYLINE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE SRN/CNTRL
PLAINS...AND AT LEAST A LOWER-END RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MIGHT EXIST
FROM NCNTRL TX INTO PARTS OF OK. HOWEVER...EARLY TIMING OF WEAK LEAD
WAVE MAY RESULT IN EARLY CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN WARM SECTOR AND
LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL.

MONDAY /DAY 5/ A NARROW CORRIDOR OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT NWD THROUGH THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS BENEATH EML
PLUME AS LLJ STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS. A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EJECT INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE DAY...AND THIS MAY FOSTER THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION ALONG DRYLINE. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW MOIST AXIS SOMEWHAT
DISPLACED FROM ZONE OF STRONGER FORCING...AND THERE MIGHT BE
LINGERING ISSUES WITH ONGOING CLOUDS AND CONVECTION ALONG WARM
CONVEYOR BELT. NEVERTHELESS...SOME RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
EXIST...AND THIS REGION WILL PROBABLY BE INCLUDED IN A CATEGORICAL
RISK AREA IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

TUESDAY /DAY 6/ QUALITY OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN WARM
SECTOR FROM ERN TX/OK INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY...AND SOME SEVERE
STORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERTAKES WARM SECTOR. FLOW WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL...AND STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO
AN MCS AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE MS VALLEY REGION. A CATEGORICAL RISK AREA WILL LIKLEY BE INTRODUCED IN THE NEXT UPDATE IF MODELS CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE CONSISTENSY.
386. SLU
Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi

Forecast: March, like Feb, Dec, Nov, Oct will be warmest on CFSV2 record. If cheering it on,expect you to respect fall when la nina comes
Quoting 386. SLU:

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi

Forecast: March, like Feb, Dec, Nov, Oct will be warmest on CFSV2 record. If cheering it on,expect you to respect fall when la nina comes

Oh, poor little Joe. he still doesn't get it, does he? Does he truly believe anyone is "cheering on" the demise of society?

Anyway, speaking of anti-realists, here's a little something on the Spencer-Christy-run and Bastardi favorite UAH GLA dataset, and how it's still failing to support the beliefs of "skeptics" like JB:

CLICK FOR LARGE, INTERACTIVE IMAGE:



Of course, Spencer explains to us that the spike is no big deal, as month-to-month increases of 0.38C have been recorded in the past, and at any rate it's El Nino, so should fall just as fast.

Sigh.

(Given how Spencer/Christy have "tweaked" the UAH data over the past several years, repeatedly revising the more recent numbers downward fo, well,r Reasons, I fully expect the current spike to be shaved down to a nub over the next year or so. The thing is, if they *don't* make it go away at least a bit, they'll be hard-pressed to blather on about how temperatures haven't risen since 1998.)
7.9 earthquake strikes S.W. of Indonesia..Tsunami Warning was issued....Link
Earthquakes occurring during the past 70 minutes....


2016-03-02 13:41:50.0
16min ago
36.36 N 120.41 W 11 2.6 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
2016-03-02 13:41:11.0
17min ago
36.28 N 8.08 W 6 3.8 WEST OF GIBRALTAR
2016-03-02 13:27:14.4
31min ago
38.36 N 44.23 E 7 3.2 TURKEY-IRAN BORDER REGION
2016-03-02 13:21:26.4
37min ago
36.01 N 28.57 E 6 3.6 DODECANESE IS.-TURKEY BORDER REG
2016-03-02 13:11:59.7
46min ago
38.27 N 44.30 E 17 3.0 TURKEY-IRAN BORDER REGION
2016-03-02 13:05:50.0
52min ago
37.10 N 30.30 E 10 2.5 WESTERN TURKEY
2016-03-02 13:02:55.5
55min ago
36.36 N 120.41 W 10 2.3 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
2016-03-02 12:55:10.0
1hr 03min ago
36.36 N 120.41 W 10 2.5 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
2016-03-02 12:50:14.8
1hr 08min ago
36.36 N 120.41 W 11 2.6 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
32
IV
2016-03-02 12:49:46.9
1hr 08min ago
4.83 S 94.23 E 10 7.9 SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA, INDONESIA
2016-03-02 12:48:59.9

1hr 09min ago
37.21 N 28.70 E 8 2.3 WESTERN TURKEY
For the winter of 2015/2016 the epic "Godzilla" El Nino didn't deliver for Central Florida. This was the 18th wettest on record and for St. Pete it was the 25th wettest on record. The good news is that there was very little to almost no severe weather that was hyped to death on here. South Florida certainly got the rains and severe weather and a few unfortunate deaths but fortunately nothing like what happened in February of 1998 in which dozens were killed and hundreds injured.
Quoting 386. SLU:

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi

Forecast: March, like Feb, Dec, Nov, Oct will be warmest on CFSV2 record. If cheering it on,expect you to respect fall when la nina comes



I expect JB to not deny the greenhouse effect. I also expect him to respect science, statistics, long term trends, properties of gases, etc. Good luck with that one, eh?
thought these indian ocean big ones were a once in a thousand yr thing. 7.8 and shallow.
Quoting 390. luvtogolf:

For the winter of 2015/2016 the epic "Godzilla" El Nino didn't deliver for Central Florida. This was the 18th wettest on record and for St. Pete it was the 25th wettest on record. The good news is that there was very little to almost no severe weather that was hyped to death on here. South Florida certainly got the rains and severe weather and a few unfortunate deaths but fortunately nothing like what happened in February of 1998 in which dozens were killed and hundreds injured.



HYPE????? HYPE?????....nothing ever gets hyped on here.......and I did vote yesterday......since I'm independent I wrote in....LA NINA for 2016.......yes...LA NINA for 2016....did I mention LA NINA yet?....hype???...what hype?
Here is location of the Indonesian quake:


And the current specs:
Date/Time
(UTC)March 2, 2016, 12:49 p.m.
(2 hours, 4 minutes ago)
LocationSouthwest Of Sumatera, IndonesiaMagnitudeMWW 7.8Latitude4.9082° SLongitude94.275° EDepth24.0 km
Christmas Island Tsunami Bulletin


TSUNAMI SOURCE:
An undersea earthquake of magnitude 7.8 occurred at
7:49 PM local time on Wednesday 02 March 2016 near SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA,
INDONESIA (4.90S,
94.23E).

Sea level observations have confirmed that a tsunami has been generated.


Anthem of the Seas cut it's recent trip short over the weekend due to this last storm. Now passengers and crew are passing around some gastrointestinal illness.
14000 lost power in West Virginia due to high winds.
Well, here it is... right on queue:


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
830 AM MST WED MAR 2 2016

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE COMBINATION OF RATHER DRAMATIC HEIGHT FALLS (200DM OR MORE) AND
MODERATE AVAILABLE MOISTURE (PWATS IN THE 0.70-0.90 INCH RANGE)
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SW AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY LIMIT RAINFALL TOTALS WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEE 0.50 INCH OR LESS.
WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 2-
5C RANGE...SNOW LEVELS COULD BRIEFLY FALL AS LOW AS 5000 FEET. GUSTY
WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD AS STRONG CAA
HELPS TO MIX STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SFC. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO TO A BIG FALL WITH MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS SEE HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 60S...SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND THE NAEFS PERCENTILE
TABLES SHOWING VALUES AOB THE 10 PERCENTILE LEVEL AT 500MB.

Still plenty of time of course for those rainfall totals to drop even more. And then? A ridge, no doubt.
Quoting 392. islander101010:

thought these indian ocean big ones were a once in a thousand yr thing. 7.8 and shallow.

this is probably related to the twin 2012 quakes which occurred about 600 kilometers to the north. it is a strike-slip earthquake so there won't be a tsunami. it is occurring in an undersea area that is deforming because the Indian and Australian plates are rocketing (in geologic terms, in our terms at about the speed our fingernails grow) off to the north.
401. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA, NASA, U of Washington

NOT an official product of the 3 aforementioned. (using my FunktopGal filters.) FunktopGal? is that a singer, that to earn money paints SAT images weird colours? no. more on VIDs Description.

View on YouTube at 1014x755Here its 620x464


View on YouTube 1014x755Here 632x464

other VID display/youtube player removed by wunderhground or error...not sure... if by error or script but it was not me and cannot re post this VID
RT said The shallow quake led to multiple deaths, according to Indonesia's search and rescue agency.

Here's the tsunami buoys that were activated..


This is the one closest to Australia. The tsunami watch for Western Australia has been cancelled.
Quoting 402. Skyepony:

RT said The shallow quake led to multiple deaths, according to Indonesia's search and rescue agency.

Here's the tsunami buoys that were activated..


This is the one closest to Australia. The tsunami watch for Western Australia has been cancelled.



2 more activated in the Southern Bay of Bengal Link.
404. vis0

Quoting 393. ricderr:




HYPE????? HYPE?????....nothing ever gets hyped on here.......and I did vote yesterday......since I'm independent I wrote in....LA NINA for 2016.......yes...LA NINA for 2016....did I mention LA NINA yet?....hype???...what hype?
ANOTHER CANDIDATE FULL OF HOT AIR...somewhere hows sar2401 (others that went thru the over performing front last nite), not read ahead yet.  read pre #393 2 that had tornado skip over their areas.
Perhaps because it's just "warmth" that doesn't draw attention, but here in Phoenix the weather is officially broken.
Quoting 359. Seattleite:

What a wonderfully weather influenced day! I had plans to meet some friends for dinner at 5PM EST roughly half a mile walk from my place. Over various text messages, we all decided to wait until the small hail stopped falling before leaving. Around 545, we had a lovely walk in steady 20+mph winds with limited rain. However, after dinner the winds were much gustier. In fact, we joked as we enjoyed a nice tail wind all the way home! Although, it was raining on the return trip. We also shared a muffled laugh as we watched not one, but three different (presumed tourists) fight and chase umbrellas. Locals know better, hoods are the way to go.

In any case, it's official. Seattle just endured it's wettest winter in history. Whether you start measuring winter from October, November or December it's still the wettest. Thankfully both the flooding situation, and landslide probabilities are not significant considerations at the moment. However, that may change given our rather wet forecast over the next few days.

Check out Cliff Mass' Weather blog post about our most recent record.


NORMAL? WASHINGTON'S MOST POPULOUS CITY - WETTEST WINTER FOLLOWS WARMEST WINTER & HOTTEST SUMMER: Winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) of 2015-2016 is the record wettest winter in Seattle WA. Summer (Jun-Jul-Aug) of 2015 is the record hottest summer there. Winter of 2014-2015 is the record warmest winter there.
It is much about weather. Gentlemen, world oil production is about 4,000,000 barrels per hour. Coal accounts for over 50% of the worlds electrical needs or about 1,000,000 tons per hour (do your own research). No present energy sources are possible for replacing these two in the near future...

Energy sources used by The Unacknowledged Special Access Programs exist... Even if these Programs were available to the greater civilization on this earth, and they are NOT...Their use would more than likely destroy most of the underlying transactions driving the greater civilization. We exist on a living rock beginning to understanding the hard place... May God help our souls...
March 1, 2016
NASA Finds Drought in Eastern Mediterranean Worst of Past 900 Years


A new NASA study finds that the recent drought that began in 1998 in the eastern Mediterranean Levant region, which comprises Cyprus, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, Syria, and Turkey, is likely the worst drought of the past nine centuries.

Scientists reconstructed the Mediterranean’s drought history by studying tree rings as part of an effort to understand the region’s climate and what shifts water to or from the area. Thin rings indicate dry years while thick rings show years when water was plentiful.


For January 2012, brown shades show the decrease in water storage from the 2002-2015 average in the Mediterranean region. Units in centimeters. The data is from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, or GRACE, satellites, a joint mission of NASA and the German space agency.
Credits: NASA/ Goddard Scientific Visualization Studio

In addition to identifying the driest years, the science team discovered patterns in the geographic distribution of droughts that provides a "fingerprint" for identifying the underlying causes. Together, these data show the range of natural variation in Mediterranean drought occurrence, which will allow scientists to differentiate droughts made worse by human-induced global warming. The research is part of NASA's ongoing work to improve the computer models that simulate climate now and in the future.

"The magnitude and significance of human climate change requires us to really understand the full range of natural climate variability," said Ben Cook, lead author and climate scientist at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies and the Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University in New York City.

"If we look at recent events and we start to see anomalies that are outside this range of natural variability, then we can say with some confidence that it looks like this particular event or this series of events had some kind of human caused climate change contribution," he said.

Cook and his colleagues used the tree-ring record called the Old World Drought Atlas to better understand how frequently and how severe Mediterranean droughts have been in the past. Rings of trees both living and dead were sampled all over the region, from northern Africa, Greece, Lebanon, Jordan, Syria and Turkey. Combined with existing tree-ring records from Spain, southern France, and Italy, these data were used to reconstruct patterns of drought geographically and through time over the past millennium. The results were accepted for publication in the Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, a publication of the American Geophysical Union.

Between the years 1100 and 2012, the team found droughts in the tree-ring record that corresponded to those described in historical documents written at the time. According to Cook, the range of how extreme wet or dry periods were is quite broad, but the recent drought in the Levant region, from 1998 to 2012, stands out as about 50 percent drier than the driest period in the past 500 years, and 10 to 20 percent drier than the worst drought of the past 900 years.

Having such a large area covered allowed the science team not only to see variations in time, but also geographic changes across the region.

In other words, when the eastern Mediterranean is in drought, is there also drought in the west? The answer is yes, in most cases, said Kevin Anchukaitis, co-author and climate scientist at the University of Arizona in Tucson. "Both for modern society and certainly ancient civilizations, it means that if one region was suffering the consequences of the drought, those conditions are likely to exist throughout the Mediterranean basin," he said. "It's not necessarily possible to rely on finding better climate conditions in one region than another, so you have the potential for large-scale disruption of food systems as well as potential conflict over water resources."

n addition, the science team found that when the northern part of the Mediterranean—Greece, Italy, and the coasts of France and Spain—tended to be dry when eastern North Africa was wet, and vice versa. These east-west and north-south relationships helped the team understand what ocean and atmospheric conditions lead to dry or wet periods in the first place.

The two major circulation patterns that influence when droughts occur in the Mediterranean are the North Atlantic Oscillation and the East Atlantic Pattern. These airflow patterns describe how winds and weather tend to behave depending on ocean conditions. They have periodic phases that tend to steer rainstorms away from the Mediterranean and bring in dryer, warmer air. The resulting lack of rain and higher temperatures, which increase evaporation from soils, lead to droughts.

"The Mediterranean is one of the areas that is unanimously projected [in climate models] as going to dry in the future [due to man-made climate change]," said Yochanan Kushnir, a climate scientist at Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, who was not involved in the research. "This paper shows that the behavior during this recent drought period is different than what we see in the rest of the record," he said, which means that the Levant region may already be feeling the affects of human-induced warming of the planet.

The 900-year record of drought variability across the Mediterranean is an important contribution that will be used to refine computer models that are used to project drought risk for the coming century, Kushnir said.

The paper is available at the Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres.
Amazing how much information as to past climate signals are buried/contained within sight of science; tree ring analysis (as well as ice and soil core samples) is science fact and not science fiction................................... 

http://www.amnh.org/education/resources/rfl/web/e ssaybooks/earth/cs_tree_rings.html

“Trees are an enormous feature in the global landscape,” observes Gordon Jacoby. “They’re fascinating in that they have the ability to record environmental changes.” Tree rings generally grow wider during warm periods and narrower during cold ones, so their rate of growth provides a picture of Earth’s temperature over the past centuries.

Co-founder of the Tree Ring Laboratory at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Jacoby is a dendroclimatologist. (Dendro is the Greek word for trees, and a climatologist is a scientist who studies climate.) Jacoby specializes in the study of annual growth patterns from old trees to see what they reflect about environmental conditions as they grew. “In most parts of the world, the written record of major environmental changes is short, so we don’t know the full range of variations that can occur naturally,” he notes, “and thus we can’t tell whether there have been recent, human-induced changes.” From a network of tree ring data being collected around the entire Northern Hemisphere tree line, the Tree Ring Lab has reconstructed temperature records for the Arctic and Northern Hemisphere dating back to the 1600s.

412. MrHul
Quoting 411. weathermanwannabe:

Amazing how much information as to past climate signals are buried/contained within sight of science; tree ring analysis (as well as ice and soil core samples) is science fact and not science fiction................................... 

http://www.amnh.org/education/resources/rfl/web/e ssaybooks/earth/cs_tree_rings.html
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There was an error in the link, an extra space after the e in essay.
Here it is corrected:
http://www.amnh.org/education/resources/rfl/web/e ssaybooks/earth/cs_tree_rings.html
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 377. SunnyDaysFla:
I do not believe that things are that bad .Perhaps in a few areas of the country but there still are good schools.


Really? Have you checked where the US ranks in education among the developed world? We're not even in the top ten.

Worse, once you graduate high school you either take on massive debt in the hopes of not winding up in a dead end no growth job that hasn't been outsourced or H1-bombed or you go work in that dead end no growth job which, statistics show, hasn't even kept up with the rate of inflation. And these days, even with a degree, there's more than a fair chance for your job to be outsourced or H1-bombed anyway.

And $DIETY forbid you have to be hospitalized for something.

There are good schools of course. Most of them you have to pay for. The rest of us 99 percenters have a bit of a crap shoot when it comes to good public schools, and certainly those who are poor/working poor can't simply pick up and move to an area where there are good schools (that creates a vicious little feedback loop right there). There's a hell of a lot more poor people than rich people in this country.