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Winds over Japan on Sunday likely to blow radioactivity towards Tokyo

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:17 PM GMT on March 19, 2011

Radioactive plumes emitted from Japan's troubled Fukushima nuclear power plant will remain near the plant or move out to sea today, due to weak offshore winds blowing over the region. On Sunday, an elongated area of low pressure will develop off the southeast coast of Japan, and the counter-clockwise flow of air around this low may bring several periods of north to northeast winds Sunday through Tuesday to Tokyo and northern Japan. According to the latest trajectory plots from NOAA's HYSPLIT model, these winds may be able to transport radioactivity from the Fukushima power plant to Tokyo beginning at 18 UTC on Sunday. The low pressure system will also bring periods of rain to Japan Sunday through Tuesday, and these rains will tend to remove the great majority of the radioactive particles from the air in a few hours, and it is uncertain how much radioactivity might make it to Tokyo. Radiation at the levels being reported coming from the troubled plant are not high enough to be of concern to human heath outside of Japan, so I will not be posting further plots showing the long-range path of the radioactivity unless there is a major explosion resulting in a significant increase in radioactive emissions. From what I've been able to gather from official reports of radioactivity releases from the Fukushima plant, Tokyo will not receive levels of radiation dangerous to human health in the coming days, should emissions continue at current levels.


Figure 1. One-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 100 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Sunday, March 20, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The plumes get caught in northeasterly winds, and move over Tokyo at the surface by 6 UTC on Monday, March 21. This is a low confidence forecast, as winds are expected to be light and somewhat variable on Sunday over Japan. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.


Figure 2. One-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 100 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Monday, March 21, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The surface plume moves over Tokyo by 18 UTC on Tuesday, March 22, at an altitude of about 1000 meters, while the plume emitted at 100 meters altitude does not make it to Tokyo, getting caught in a upper-level jet stream of southwesterly winds. This is a low confidence forecast, as winds are expected to be light and somewhat variable on Monday over Japan. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.

Resources
Seven-day weather forecast for Sendai near the Fukushima nuclear plant

The Austrian Weather Service is running trajectory models for Japan.

Current radar loops from the Japan Meteorological Agency

I'll have a new post on Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Air and Water Pollution Earthquake

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

so many things so many problems

thanks for update doc
thanks Dr. Masters.....Makes me want to cry with what is happening
It is looking to be almost under a slight amount of control according to recent news (power up to the buildings for reactors 1 and 2) . I guess what is up in the air already will stay offshore.

On the agricultural contamination reported was anyone able to find out if it was associated with precipitation and get a level? If not ill find it and post it in a bit.
U.S. Tomahawk cruise missiles hit Tripoli, Misrata, Pentagon says. - Incidentally Misrata was reported to be a CBR weapon storage area. He is feared to poses them. Dont know the truth level of those however.
Earthquake list of 5+Mags...worldwide

Link
Environmental radioactivity and radiation information -Realtime radiation data collected via the System for Prediction of Environment Emergency Dose Information(SPEEDI)

Link
blog1767comment736 aspectre "Agricultural side effects have begun: FukushimaPrefecture milk and IbarakiPrefecture spinach have already been found to exceed radioactive contamination limits set by the Japanese government.
If they don't shut down the contaminant dispersal problem within a week or two, world food prices are gonna go through the roof.
"

blog1767comment804 JohnTucker "I am wondering about the amounts of radiation. More bad reporting I suspect. That first rain/snow is probably responsible for that spike."

If it were solely a problem of rain/snow, then it would have happened during rains&snows previous to the earthquake. There was something new up there that got washed down.
Or it could be that no one bothered to check before the FukushimaDaiichi mess, and there are radioactive hot spots in Japan which have been overlooked in the past because nobody saw a need to test.

Either way, there's gonna be testing in the foreseeable future. And if a significant portion of those tests show radiation over the safe limits... Heck even within safe limits but slightly over the previous what-was-assumed-to-be-normal background, there's gonna be panic boycotts of agricultural products by the overly health conscious.
And those particular Japanese can easily afford to buy off the world market.

However, journalists misinterpreting the government announcement wouldn't surprise me a bit. So much of that's been going on that it's become more the norm than the exception. Comes from having would-be-journalists educated about journalism rather than educated about the world: they don't know enough about anything to ask the right questions about anything.

But then, even the MIT-hosted nuclear physics&engineering students' site is loaded with partial truths so misleading that they're disinformative. And that site is better than most of the experts being interviewed (or rather the portion of the interviews that gets printed or aired).
Correct me if Im wrong but I see rain / snow as possible concentrating events in areas of recent high airborne contamination. As a result of airborne particles acting as condensation nuclei? But also as a washing out effect I suppose. I don't see it as arbitrary.
From http://www.bousai.ne.jp/eng/

Radiation values measured by the observatory are not zero even during normal time due to because of cosmic rays and natural radiation from natural radioactive materials in the air on the earth.

When it rains, natural radioactive materials such as radon in the air fall down onto the ground.Therefore, measured values temporarily go up.

Even when it thunders, yellow send flies, or nondestructive tests with the use of isotopes are conducted nearby,measured values sometimes go up.Because indicated space radiation dose rates are rounded off to positive numbers,they may differ from data shown on prefectual websites.Data are sometimes not transmitted because of maintenance or for other reasons.
11 interesting. I wonder if elevated iodine isotopes were found and the biological elevation, especially when compared to other contamination events. I have the Chernobyl stuff somewhere if I can find some numbers.

This is all I know:

As workers scrambled to curb a nuclear crisis Sunday, the Japanese government considered halting the sale of food from farms near the Fukushima plant after abnormally high levels of radiation were found in milk and spinach.

Very small amounts -- far below the level of concern -- of radioactive iodine were also detected in tap water in Tokyo


I would have thought they would do that anyway. For a bit at least.

They are really letting lose on Libya. I wonder if something else/some other information isn't behind this.
what's a yellow send fly?
I have no idea what "yellow send flies" means, lost in translation there, I'll try to translate w/google
Quoting JohnTucker:
11 interesting. I wonder if elevated iodine isotopes were found and the biological elevation, especially when compared to other contamination events. I have the Chernobyl stuff somewhere if I can find some numbers.

They are really letting lose on Libya. I wonder if something else/some other information isn't behind this.

JohnTucker(JFLORIDA) Yes, Libya is getting hammered, but what would that something else be?
lol, kinda what i was thinking also.
thanks.
Translators can do some strange things. I think it is better to leave the errors in just so people know its not perfect.
Quoting JohnTucker:
11 interesting. I wonder if elevated iodine isotopes were found and the biological elevation, especially when compared to other contamination events. I have the Chernobyl stuff somewhere if I can find some numbers.

They are really letting lose on Libya. I wonder if something else/some other information isn't behind this.

I think most of the stuff is falling on airfields..... easy to target... destroy his air force on the ground.. ... he does have some good fighter aircraft!
I see you spent some time in Alaska JohnTucker(JFLORIDA) very mild weather there...I spent 3 years in North Pole (Eielson AFB) with ex...Not too mild there
15 to be honest, I m not sure. Enforcing a no fly zone is one thing, we've seen that before and how violations are dealt with in other skirmishes, but they are tilting a balance and I am assuming a piece of information is missing or a decision was made beyond the released no fly zone decision.

Just curious really.

18 that could be it.

Alaska is nice, Fairbanks was far colder than the winters I endured in Anchorage. Way hotter in summer too unbelievably.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
I see you spent some time in Alaska JohnTucker(JFLORIDA) very mild weather there...I spent 3 years in North Pole (Eielson AFB) with ex...Not too mild there

Anchorage is comparible to nort Minnesota
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
I see you spent some time in Alaska JohnTucker(JFLORIDA) very mild weather there...I spent 3 years in North Pole (Eielson AFB) with ex...Not too mild there

Did you live in North Pole?... I went through Arctic survival School at Eielson back in the day..
Quoting JohnTucker:
15 to be honest, I m not sure. Enforcing a no fly zone is one thing, we've seen that before and how violations are dealt with in other skirmishes, but they are tilting a balance and I am assuming a piece of information is missing or a decision was made beyond the released no fly zone decision.

Just curious really.


The UN decision went well beyond the no-fly zone - any measure to protect the civil population is approved
I believe the No-Fly_Zone and cease fire rule is reason to legally by UN rules to kick the crap out of the crazy dictators......And I agree 100%
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:

Anchorage is comparible to nort Minnesota


Even nicer probably because its rarely windy. And the average is like around 20 for the winter months in anchorage. 7-10 feet of snow per season.

The northern tier lower 48 can have some god forsaken weather. Driving to anchorage one spring the only really bad weather i was in was near Minot north Dakota.

23 yea thats it probably. they may want his entire air presence neutralized.
Quoting MissNadia:

Did you live in North Pole?... I went through Arctic survival School at Eielson back in the day..

MissNadia.My ex was a weather forecaster at Eielson...We lived in this crappy little apartment in North Pole...around mile 26 on Richardson Highway...It was on Badger Road....
BTW: I have had no problems with what Xyrus2000 has been saying. He's been very careful about the truth. (I may have missed a few postings; hard to remember where I left off reading when I resume).

And most of those contradicting him have been too reliant on GreenPeace/similar info packs. GreenPeace is good street theater -- with many goals I support -- but not-so-good as a source of scientific information.
The Union of Concerned Scientists is very good... for those who've backgrounded themselves in jargon and caveats, otherwise they can all too easily be misinterpreted.
Coalition Launches Operation Odyssey Dawn

Navy Vice Adm. William E. Gortney, director of the Joint Staff, briefs the press on "Operation New Dawn" at the Pentagon, March 19, 2011. Gortney announced that coalition forces have launched the operation to enforce U.N. Security Council Resolution 1973, which protects the Libyan people from their ruler.

DOD photo by Cherie Cullen

Coalition forces have launched Operation Odyssey Dawn to enforce U.N. Security Council Resolution 1973, which protects the Libyan people from their ruler, said Navy Vice Adm. William E. Gortney, director of the Joint Staff.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:

MissNadia.My ex was a weather forecaster at Eielson...We lived in this crappy little apartment in North Pole...around mile 26 on Richardson Highway...It was on Badger Road....
The only nice thing about that area in the winter was the northern lights... great displays !!!!
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:

MissNadia.My ex was a weather forecaster at Eielson...We lived in this crappy little apartment in North Pole...around mile 26 on Richardson Highway...It was on Badger Road....

MissNadia........What year were you at Eielson?
I dont know what Xyrus2000 said. A lot of the reactor stuff involves the unknown and a bit of guessing. nothing like this has ever happened. Ive corrected my wrong opinions and beliefs several times as I updated my knowledge of the incident.
30 that was nice - I really miss those - and the quiet winters, started to like them a lot.

I always reminded me of what it would be like to be in a photograph.
"Super" Moon Rise NOLA 7:28 PM CDT
Quoting JohnTucker:
30 that was nice - I really miss those - and the quiet winters, started to like them a lot.

I always reminded me of what it would be like to be in a photograph.

I'm sure the northern lights were fantastic last month with all of the sunsopt activity...My ex measured the activity on a magnotometer and he would tell me to run out and look...Many times I would take a cup og hot water outside and throw it up in the minus 40 degree weather just to watch it vaporize...But I was not outside too long.
Now if only the U.N. could agree that the North Korea dictator must go, people there starve to death.
Quoting Jedkins01:
Now if only the U.N. could agree that the North Korea dictator must go, people there starve to death.

Jedkins.I agree 100%, but that North Korea wimp could do MAJOR damage to more than just his country
Quoting JohnTucker:
Translators can do some strange things. I think it is better to leave the errors in just so people know its not perfect.


True, take this blog entry for example:Link

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Quoting DARPAsockpuppet:


True, take this blog entry for example:Link

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My Grammy made me sock puppets many, many years ago...I remember a Sheri Lewis sock puppet named LambChop...There was also a sock puppet that looked like a monkey...Buttons sewed on to make the eyes
...many many many years trimming the fishing line...
*snort*
Quoting MissNadia:

I think most of the stuff is falling on airfields..... easy to target... destroy his air force on the ground.. ... he does have some good fighter aircraft!


Mostly old soviet era MiGs and old French fighter craft. They're good if you consider he;s using them against conventional ground froces with little or no air defense capabilities
37 Anytime someone talks about there not being a need to get rid of him, or it being part of a conspiracy I think of:

this, this and this.

And wonder why he is allowed to continue. People look the other way with him for some reason.
#28. I wouldn't really consider his quotes of the majority of my posts carefully formed. Too much accusation without actually taking the time to read the post and/or simply giving the wrong information without source; at least relating to biomedical and physics.

#34. I'm still working on it, but my thesis work so far indicates that spatial locality of large orbiting objects modifies the environment a little more than currently predicted. But this is also most likely coupled with other factors, so nothing at all may happen; it is just more likely to depending on the path of the moon and current stress amounts in the plates.
Quoting JohnTucker:
37 Anytime someone talks about there not being a need to get rid of him, or it being part of a conspiracy I think of:

this, this and this.

And wonder why he is allowed to continue.

I think the problem is that we do not know the full potential that this crazy man has....He may cause major problems outside of his realm...We are tip toeing around his venue
I believe these will take care of alot of problems.

Quoting emcf30:
I believe these will take care of alot of problems.



emcf......That will put you eye out kid
PBW your not kidding there, that would hurt. BTW, thanks for calling me kid, having flash backs from 40 years ago
Quoting emcf30:
PBW your not kidding there, that would hurt. BTW, thanks for calling me kid, having flash backs from 40 years ago


40 years ago....High School Prom....Pabst Blue Ribbon?
Libya is “detaining” foreign correspondents. I believe the number is now up to 8 missing.
Strawberry Hill
Quoting beell:
what's a yellow send fly?


They work real well for catching Silvers down on the Kenai.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:


They work real well for catching Silvers down on the Kenai.


You're so a-luring, bf.

For the latest from MIT regarding the reactors in Japan...here is the link.

MIT NSE Nuclear Information Hub

Note: Latest updates are from today, March 19th.




wind shear
brb


Knut the Polar Bear Dies

He collapsed in the enclosure and died today at the Berlin zoo. He was four.

His trainer Thomas Doerflein who raised him from an cub in the photo above died back in 2008 of a heart attack at age 44.
This is interesting. Is it true?

This year, July has 5 Fridays, 5 Saturdays and 5 Sundays. This happens once every 823 years.

www.hoax-slayer.com

It is perfectly true that July 2011 has 5 Fridays, 5 Saturdays and 5 Sundays.

However, such a combination occurs far more often than every 823 years. The last occurrence was in July 2005 while the next occurrence will take place in July 2016. The message is just a revamped version of very similar- and equally erroneous - messages about August and October 2010.
Thanks Pat. It came in the form of an email to pass on if you wanted to receive "great fortunes".
Radiation In Food ‘No Immediate Threat’ Says Japan

19 Mar (NucNet): The government’s chief cabinet secretary Yukio Edano said in a statement today (Saturday) that radiation exceeding the government-set radiation level was detected in sampled milk in Fukushima Prefecture and in six samples of spinach in neighbouring Ibaraki Prefecture.

He said the radiation measured from the samples poses “no immediate threat” to health. Even if a person was exposed to it for a year, the amount of radioactive substances detected in the milk would result in a radiation dose equivalent to the dose a patient would receive from one CT scan. The radiation detected from the spinach is equivalent to one-fifth of a single CT scan.Link
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
This is interesting. Is it true?

This year, July has 5 Fridays, 5 Saturdays and 5 Sundays. This happens once every 823 years.


Funny, I don't remember that!
Yeah,,I got them last October too.

Along with one from a Nigerian Prince who needed my help as well.
Quoting Grothar:


Funny, I don't remember that!
Grothar do you remember what happened in the mid evil times?
Quoting washingtonian115:
Grothar do you remember what happened in the mid evil times?


No, but I remember what happened during the midieval times. The ones you may be talking about happened in a club in New York back in the 1970's. Not proper discussion on the blog.
Quoting Patrap:
Yeah,,I got them last October too.

Along with one from a Nigerian Prince who needed my help as well.


Hey, Pat. The Brooklyn Bridge is for sale again; interested????
Quoting Grothar:


No, but I remember what happened during the midieval times. The ones you may be talking about happened in a club in New York back in the 1970's. Not proper discussion on the blog.
I was just a kid back in those days.Boy how time goes by.
Quoting Grothar:


No, but I remember what happened during the midieval times. The ones you may be talking about happened in a club in New York back in the 1970's. Not proper discussion on the blog.


Is that half way through the medieval times? ;)
Radiation in my coffee this morning wow!!
U.S. East coasters - quick, run out and look at the moon. Still a bit of an orange cast, and absolutely beautiful!!
Speaking of radiation in coffee, I wounder if his cat survived the decon it was given?
Quoting xcool:


wind shear
That's false.
Quoting Dr. Jeff Masters:
....Radiation at the levels being reported coming from the troubled plant are not high enough to be of concern to human heath outside of Japan
[...]
True enough, but significant quantities of harmful radionuclides have been released into the environment that will cause many radiation-induced cancer deaths in the future.

Never rely on statistics when logic suffices.
18S CHERONO



Beautiful "Super" Moon this evening. Starting to feel like Lon Cheney, Jr.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Beautiful "Super" Moon this evening. Starting to feel like Lon Cheney, Jr.


Well, guess there are clouds out there, I cant see it ;( .....but why is it I can see stars.....(Ok just jump all over this, Im waiting)...
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Beautiful "Super" Moon this evening. Starting to feel like Lon Cheney, Jr.


It is nice. Even some of the neighbors were out looking.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Well, guess there are clouds out there, I cant see it ;( .....but why is it I can see stars.....(Ok just jump all over this, Im waiting)...


Turn around and look the other way. ;)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Beautiful "Super" Moon this evening. Starting to feel like Lon Cheney, Jr.


Hey, Geoff, don't know if you noticed, but someone is posting your favorite Intellicast video of the Atlantic. LOL
Quoting PcolaDan:


Turn around and look the other way. ;)


___ ____ ,I already did that! lol
Quoting Grothar:


It is nice. Even some of the neighbors were out looking.


Possibly they were checking to make sure your medicine to stop your fangs growing worked. :|
Quoting PcolaDan:


Turn around and look the other way. ;)


LOL
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, Geoff, don't know if you noticed, but someone is posting your favorite Intellicast video of the Atlantic. LOL


And what is it showing?
Quoting PcolaDan:


Possibly they were checking to make sure your medicine to stop your fangs growing worked. :|


Where wolf???
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


And what is it showing?


Nothing? Same as all our lives.
Quoting Grothar:


Where wolf???


Warned you about the howling.
66 Grothar "Hey, Pat. The Brooklyn Bridge is for sale again; interested????

sigh... I don't know how these rumors keep getting started. No. NO! No, it ain't.
And there ain't no way that nobody is gonna convince me to sell it.
Quoting PcolaDan:


Possibly they were checking to make sure your medicine to stop your fangs growing worked. :|


I don't think dental implants can grow.
Quoting aspectre:
66 Grothar "Hey, Pat. The Brooklyn Bridge is for sale again; interested????

sigh... I don't know how these rumors keep getting started. No. NO! No, it ain't.
And there ain't no way that anybody is gonna convince me to sell it.


Holding on to it, huh??
Quoting PcolaDan:


Warned you about the howling.


So did Mrs. Grothar.
Quoting AussieStorm:

WOOOOOW


Reminded me of that movie "The Perfect Storm"
Super Moon? I better not, Butt here is the view from ISS :)




Did ya know about this?

http://discovermagazine.com/2007/jun/life-is-rad
Quoting Grothar:


Where wolf???
'

there wolf, there castle
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I don't think dental implants can grow.


I'll have you know, every tooth in my head is belongs to me. Been paid for over a year now.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
'

there wolf, there castle


Why are you talking that way???
Quoting PcolaDan:


Reminded me of that movie "The Perfect Storm"

amazing footage.

I have just updated my Blog. Added Sydney RADAR to it
Quoting Grothar:


Why are you talking that way???


i have no idea, why arent you?
Quoting PcolaDan:


Reminded me of that movie "The Perfect Storm"


Hey PDan, just saw the moon.....:) and another "WOW" on the video.......
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


i have no idea, why arent you?


I don't know, suit yourself. LOL (Great movie)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Hey, KEEP, some sizeable ones coming every few minutes. I really hope they are wrong about this moon thing:

Update time = Sun Mar 20 1:49:32 UTC 2011


MAG UTC DATE-TIME
y/m/d h:m:s LAT
deg LON
deg DEPTH
km Region
MAP 5.5 2011/03/20 01:30:46 36.945 141.182 22.8 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 5.0 2011/03/20 01:24:44 37.411 141.761 31.3 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 4.8 2011/03/20 01:20:16 -7.792 106.905 64.6 JAVA, INDONESIA
MAP 5.2 2011/03/20 01:09:45 39.173 142.411 36.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF
Quoting Grothar:


I don't know, suit yourself. LOL (Great movie)


just don't put the candle back and everything will be a okay.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


just don't put the candle back and everything will be a okay.


Nw lissen vry carflly, don't pt the candle back!!!!!!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


So did Mrs. Grothar.


Twit! LOL
Will everybody stop looking at the moon and come back in here. I hate talking to myself. If I wanted to do that I could talk to Mrs. Grothar.
Quoting Grothar:
Will everybody stop looking at the moon and come back in here. I hate talking to myself. If I wanted to do that I could talk to Mrs. Grothar.


well i heard the earths gonna turn inside out or something cause of the moon, dont wanna miss it.
Quoting Grothar:
Will everybody stop looking at the moon and come back in here. I hate talking to myself. If I wanted to do that I could talk to Mrs. Grothar.


Quit yelling ! I have a little headache...from my late afternoon siesta.....always does that.:)
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


well i heard the earths gonna turn inside out or something cause of the moon, dont wanna miss it.


If it does, I am sure you won't be watching it for long! LOL
Quoting Grothar:
Will everybody stop looking at the moon and come back in here. I hate talking to myself. If I wanted to do that I could talk to Mrs. Grothar.

the sun um is um out here in Sydney, though it's hella raining.
114. flsky
Gotcha beat on that timeline....
Quoting Grothar:


I'll have you know, every tooth in my head is belongs to me. Been paid for over a year now.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Quit yelling ! I have a little headache...from my late afternoon siesta.....always does that.:)


How could you tell I was yelling? It feels so good when you're sleeping, but groggy for a few hours after you wake up. Hate that, too!
Quoting Grothar:


How could you tell I was yelling? It feels so good when you're sleeping, but groggy for a few hours after you wake up. Hate that, too!

I'm still in bed.
Quoting Grothar:


How could you tell I was yelling? It feels so good when you're sleeping, but groggy for a few hours after you wake up. Hate that, too!


Well, I was outback looking at the Mississippi Moon and I heard ya all the way over here.....advil will get it....
Quoting AussieStorm:

I'm still in bed.


Get up already, is it Sunday or Monday there?
Quoting Grothar:


Get up already, is it Sunday or Monday there?

1:22pm Sunday afternoon.
On this "Super" moon evening, I miss Maria Ouspenskaya.

Quoting Grothar:


If it does, I am sure you won't be watching it for long! LOL
it's not the end,its only the beginning
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
On this "Super" moon evening, I miss Maria Ouspenskaya.



Get your own wolfbane!!!! You know we are probably the only two people left alive who know who she was. LOL
Mt Fujiyama webcam~ live.. why can't I see the MT? Just bad air day?

Since the blog is a little quiet. I wanted to play this for some of the old timer who might remember this song. The only Japanese song ever to make it to Number 1 on American charts. Nice song.


Quoting Grothar:


Get your own wolbane!!!! You know we are probably the only two people left alive who know who she was. LOL


And not even the Google. I knew who she was. As a kid I always read "Famous Monsters of Filmland".
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


And not even the Google. I knew who she was. As a kid I always read "Famous Monsters of Filmland".


Bet you had a "Wale" of a time reading them. Have any left. They are good collectors items.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
it's not the end,its only the beginning


Yup :)


I surely remember it.....and now I know what he was saying.......how bout that.....nice....:) The Japanese song....that is
Looks like clouds in Japan today.. Ill wind for the people there. Doesn't look to be sweeping right out to sea at the moment.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


And not even the Google. I knew who she was. As a kid I always read "Famous Monsters of Filmland".


Geoff, never thought you were a "googler". You come back to fast with the answers to have time to google them. Some people don't realize that we actually have things things stored in our heads. (A little sad when you think about it.) LOL
Quoting Grothar:
Since the blog is a little quiet. I wanted to play this for some of the old timer who might remember this song. The only Japanese song ever to make it to Number 1 on American charts. Nice song.




TY. Brings back memories.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
I surely remember it.....and now I know what he was saying.......how bout that.....nice....:)


It was a nice song. Played constantly. Thought it would be nice in case there were any Japanese speakers on tonight.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


TY. Brings back memories.


There ya go again,DAM....trying to be old....lol
Thought some of you might find this interesting. It is the Norwegian Royal Guard. They are famous thoughout Europe. They really are amazing. This is performed entirely on ice. It is the shortened version. If you want to see the whole thing. Go to Youtube. If you look at minute 3 you will see something amazing.



Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


TY. Brings back memories.



You really remember it?
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


There ya go again,DAM....trying to be old....lol


Hehehe, I gotta pretend in order to keep up with y'all ;-)
Quoting Grothar:



You really remember it?


Yes! I was a month short of 13 when it hit #1. Very into the rock 'n roll/pop scene. I think my Dad liked that one even more than me, though.
Quoting Grothar:


Geoff, never thought you were a "googler". You come back to fast with the answers to have time to google them. Some people don't realize that we actually have things things stored in our heads. (A little sad when you think about it.) LOL


Some things bloggers post on here, have to use the Google to help me out.
Quoting Grothar:
Thought some of you might find this interesting. It is the Norwegian Royal Guard. They are famous thoughout Europe. They really are amazing. This is performed entirely on ice. It is the shortened version. If you want to see the whole thing. Go to Youtube. If you look at minute 3 you will see something amazing.





Now....take that...you North Korean stompers !
Quoting Grothar:
This is performed entirely on ice.


Amazing indeed. They must have something on their soles which gives them traction.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Some things bloggers post on here, have to use the Google to help me out.



Not being funny, but I find that hard to believe. Many some technical stuff, but you are pretty fast on the uptake.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Yes! I was a month short of 13 when it hit #1. Very into the rock 'n roll/pop scene. I think my Dad liked that one even more than me, though.


Are u "telling a tale"?
Like when Nate Dogg passed away, I had no idea who he was.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Like when Nate Dogg passed away, I had no idea who he was.


Who?
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Are u "telling a tale"?


No, eyes, hard as it may seem to believe, I really am that old young!
Suuuupermoon!!!
Quoting Grothar:


Who?


Use the Google.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Amazing indeed. They must have something on their soles which gives them traction.


They really do it on ice. I thought you were in your 20's.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Use the Google.


Oh!
Quoting Grothar:


Who?


Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Use the Google.


lol that's www.google.com, Gro. If you need help finding it, just holler ;-)
Quoting Grothar:


They really do it on ice. I thought you were in your 20's.


Ha, in my dreams! What made you think that?
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


No, eyes, hard as it may seem to believe, I really am that old young!


I see...hmmm....that's why ur so thoughtful..;} good to know....
Mt Fuji show some hot spots by MODIS lastnight. 3rd from the bottom.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:




lol that's www.google.com, Gro. If you need help finding it, just holler ;-)


I used to have a semi-photographic memory. Now the pictures are just getting a little faded is all. LOL

I remember entire episoded of TV shows I saw in the early 50's and entire movies. I even remember watching Swedish movies in Norway and translating them to Norwegian or German. I still do that in my head when I think of them. You think it is easy dreaming with subtitles. LOL
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


I see...hmmm....that's why ur so thoughtful..;} good to know....


TY. BTW, I'm a retired tech support tech, that's why I like to help when I can.
Quoting Grothar:


They really do it on ice. I thought you were in your 20's.


Don't know, really. I am usually pretty good on reading people on the blog.
Quoting Grothar:


I used to have a semi-photographic memory. Now the pictures are just getting a little faded is all. LOL

I remember entire episoded of TV shows I saw in the early 50's and entire movies. I even remember watching Swedish movies in Norway and translating them to Norwegian or German. I still do that in my head when I think of them. You think it is easy dreaming with subtitles. LOL


Haha! You have a better memory than I, that's for sure. I was a language major - German, Danish, Spanish. Was always confusing the profs, speaking the wrong one.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


TY. BTW, I'm a retired tech support tech, that's why I like to help when I can.


Ah, that's why. Usually only the youngsters know how to figure out all these technical things on the PC's. Now we know.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


TY. BTW, I'm a retired tech support tech, that's why I like to help when I can.


Ahhhh Hah !! Nailed that one......but thought u were in ur 20's too.....lol....go figure..:o
Quoting Ossqss:


Yup :)




That Chicago Beginnings - Back to High School....
Quoting Grothar:


Don't know, really. I am usually pretty good on reading people on the blog.


I'm hard to read, my print's faded so much.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Haha! You have a better memory than I, that's for sure. I was a language major - German, Danish, Spanish. Was always confusing the profs, speaking the wrong one.


Taler du dansk? Hvis jeg skriver p norsk, du kan forst alt. Vi skal skrive til hinanden i tysk off-blogg
Quoting Skyepony:
Mt Fuji show some hot spots by MODIS lastnight. 3rd from the bottom.


There have been some 6's over the past week along the boundary that runs just south of Fuji.

Edit: 5's and 6's
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


I'm hard to read, my print's faded so much.


I read you loud and clear. Nice people, you are.
Quoting Grothar:


Ah, that's why. Usually only the youngsters know how to figure out all these technical things on the PC's. Now we know.


Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Ahhhh Hah !! Nailed that one......but thought u were in ur 20's too.....lol....go figure..:o


It's true, the young'ns do know a lot these days. It's hard for me to keep up, now that I'm not working. OTOH, I don't really miss it!
Quoting Grothar:


Taler du dansk?


No mas? Nicht mehr?! Most all of it's long gone.
Another war for oil now, when our we going to drill for our own oil here in U.S. and use our own natural gas and tell those arab nations to drink there oil.No need to depend on unstable nations,this president has no clue,he has shut down the gulf !!drill less pay more and go to war for oil.The president's
new slogan!!horrible president and just wait for the coming inflation and 3.5 trillion dollar defecits!Only the beginning the best is yet to come!
The last few hours have been a bust.
I come here for "Latest Breaking" and quite often I am satisfied.
Lately what I read is a bunch of wunderfolks frapping away - zip/zero content.
Hits Rewind
I'll be back (actually I'm always here)
Given all the self interested comments one has to wade through this is the best information site I have found so far.
"Make it sew"
Quoting ycd0108:
The last few hours have been a bust.
I come here for "Latest Breaking" and quite often I am satisfied.
Lately what I read is a bunch of wunderfolks frapping away - zip/zero content.
Hits Rewind
I'll be back (actually I'm always here)
Given all the self interested comments one has to wade through this is the best information site I have found so far.
"Make it sew"


You're right...havent posted this lately

Link
170. beell
For Grothar.

latest quakes.....world

Link
Quoting ycd0108:
The last few hours have been a bust.
I come here for "Latest Breaking" and quite often I am satisfied.
Lately what I read is a bunch of wunderfolks frapping away - zip/zero content.
Hits Rewind
I'll be back (actually I'm always here)
Given all the self interested comments one has to wade through this is the best information site I have found so far.
"Make it sew"
Good-bye.I come here to disscuss weather.I hope this blog doesn't turn into a .......gulp(says in low voice) a FoxNews blog.
grothar- if you're still here- I really enjoyed the video- thankyou!
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


You're right...havent posted this lately

Link


Quoting EYEStoSEA:
latest quakes.....world

Link


Thanks, eyes. Gotta go, dinner time, bbl.
Grothar, can ya tell anything different in the tides with the Supermoon ?
grothar- if you're still here- I really enjoyed the video- thankyou!
I noticed that in all the super moon years terrihorribad natrual disasters have happened.Now of course this is all superstition....
Quoting washingtonian115:
I noticed that in all the super moon years terrihorribad natrual disasters have happened.Now of course this is all superstition....


Hello W115, I will be glad when time Supermoon time span will be over....just in case :)
Quoting aquak9:
grothar- if you're still here- I really enjoyed the video- thankyou!


I did too :)
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Hello W115, I will be glad when time Supermoon time span will be over....just in case :)
Hey!.Last super moon in 05.I'm sure no one wants to remember how that year went......
Quoting washingtonian115:
Hey!.Last super moon in 05.I'm sure no one wants to remember how that year went......


Truly, a year to forget!!! Just so happens , this one comes with the spring eqinoux (mar 20th), so the tides are suppose to be greater, I believe.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Truly, a year to forget!!! Just so happens , this one comes with the spring eqinoux (mar 20th), so the tides are suppose to be greater, I believe.
(Face palm).I'm just worried for the U.S this hurricane season.I did some reseach that may indeed explian why I,and other forecasters think this will be a bad year for the U.S.'ll have it all released in my blog come May.The 5th to be exsact.Sorry if you see some words missing.The S.O.B computer is once again acting up.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Truly, a year to forget!!! Just so happens , this one comes with the spring eqinoux (mar 20th), so the tides are suppose to be greater, I believe.
yep
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yep


Well, Keeper, soon be midnight here, havent seen anything too bad yet.....listening to BBC trying to keep up with the war....if we're calling it that..really liked the video of the war planes.:)
BBC LIVE.....middle east...some recored, but some live

Link
Link

I have never tried to post a link before

I hope it works

This is a story about a new oil slick in the gom, dated today.

Link

since the first one seemed to work, i thought i'd post another link on the same subject and go to bed.

link is to new reports of a 100-mile-long oil slick in the gulf of mexico.

Quoting WatchingThisOne:


There have been some 6's over the past week along the boundary that runs just south of Fuji.

Edit: 5's and 6's


Mt Fuji had $500mill in insured damages from the 6. That would have been an event in it self.


incoming~
I believe CNN was talking about how Mt Fuji had it's last major eruption when an earthquake similar to what happened earlier had occurred in 1707; probably close to a week ago though. It's starting to look more like this may be a possibility in the near future.

On a side note, still watching the Geiger counters; haven't noticed anything major since yesterday when one in Colorado hit 95 CPM. Won't know for a few days though whether or not background rates are increasing.
Tried to use Nexsat to see the GOM today. It reroutes to a zoom in of Albuquerque.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:
Progress in Japan nuclear crisis, but new worries about food supply


Yes. It seems Japan has been thrown without warning directly into hell. Very soon it will be difficult to maintain order, even given the more societal orientation of the Japanese people.

BBC - The eerie quiet of Tokyo
Unbelievable.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #21
DEPRESSION TROPICALE, FORMER CHERONO (07-20102011)
10:00 AM RET March 20 2011
==========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Cherono (998 hPa) located at 20.9S 61.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 13 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
Only in the southern semi circle up to 70 NM from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
=======================
40 NM from the center extending up to 180 NM in southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 21.9S 58.8E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION Tropicale)
24 HRS: 23.2S 56.0E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION Tropicale)
48 HRS: 25.9S 53.2E - 40 knots (Depression SubTropicale)
72 HRS: 29.3S 56.6E - 25 knots (Depression SubTropicale)

Additional Information
=====================

Convection keeps on flaring up in the southeastern semi-circle. Environment remains sheared and METEO SAT 7 visible channel imagery shows a totally exposed low level vortex on the northwestern edge of the deep convective activity.

Structure is asymmetric with gale force winds over large portion of the southern semi-circle. Vertical wind shear continues to strengthen gradually aloft as the system is approaching an upper level trough located to the southwest.

Some models of the last 1200z run (as ECMWF and french model ARPEGE) clearly suggest an interaction between Ex-Cherono and the upper level trough Monday and Tuesday. Thermodynamic structure of the system could evolve towards an hybrid form.. meaning subtropical form (suggested by latest phasis diagram FRM GFS). Consequently, these models restrengthen somewhat the system. This scenario appears now likely and is reflected in the current intensity forecast.

The current track towards the west southwest should maintain within the next 24-36 hours. Beyond, the more realistic forecast remains recurvature of the track southward and then southeastward in relation with a gap in the subtropical high pressure and gradually dissipation of the system as the upper level trough moves quickly eastward.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
exerpt from MSNBC story (2 hours old at time of post):

"While four of Fukushima's six nuclear reactors have been dangerously overheating since the March 11 earthquake and tsunami disrupted cooling systems, Unit 3 has proved particularly troublesome.

After the government said Saturday that the unit appeared to be stabilizing after being doused with water, nuclear safety officials said the efforts may not have worked. Pressure was rising again inside the reactor's containment vessel, requiring a release of radioactive gas to prevent a more dangerous buildup, said safety agency official Hidehiko Nishiyama.

The venting is an "unavoidable measure to protect the containment vessel," Nishiyama said. He warned that a larger amount of radiation would have to be released than when similar venting was done a week ago because more nuclear fuel have have degraded since then."

Japan to release radioactive gas at nuclear reactor
Quoting Skyepony:
Tried to use Nexsat to see the GOM today. It reroutes to a zoom in of Albuquerque.


That can't be good.
200 Not a good time for that. More fuel degraded - I wonder what that specifically means. There are several possibilities I think.
Here is a NYT article that covers the new venting of reactor no. 3 and a few other things.

Pressure Forces New Release of Gas From Japanese Nuclear Plant

The first figure in Dr. Masters' post above may well come into play, depending on when and for how long they have to vent the reactor. I'd hate to be making those decisions.
I hope there is not a problem with the "sealed" Macondo well, or something worse.


Magnitude 6.0
Date-Time

* Sunday, March 20, 2011 at 08:26:11 UTC
* Sunday, March 20, 2011 at 04:26:11 PM at epicenter

Location 19.008N, 121.261E
Depth 36.6 km (22.7 miles) set by location program
Region BABUYAN ISLANDS REGION, PHILIPPINES
208. mnsky
Lets hope the winds are friendly!labels=1 labels=1 labels=1
ooOOOOooo - starting out the day with a bang, shake & slick

1. Oil slick sighted in the Gomex

2. Japan having continued Nuke troubles

3. and some S H A K E in PI

: ( maybe she did say the sky is falling


grumble- yes- another 6.1 offa the coast of Honshu, says little ChickenLittle, aka Raina
Groundwater readings in Florida show when Japan's earthquake hit.

Just found this. Kinda interesting.

Oh yes, MagicFan, did you say something to me about the Heat not having fans show up? There was a lot of them last night, and few empty seats.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #22
DEPRESSION TROPICALE, FORMER CHERONO (07-20102011)
16:00 PM RET March 20 2011
==========================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Cherono (997 hPa) located at 21.7S 60.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 12 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
Only in the southern semi circle up to 70 NM from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
=======================
40 NM from the center extending up to 180 NM in southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 22.9S 57.9E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
24 HRS: 24.2S 55.6E - 40 knots (Depression SubTropicale)
48 HRS: 26.9S 53.5E - 35 knots (Depression Extratropical)
72 HRS: 29.5S 57.6E - 30 knots (Depression Extratropical)

Additional Information
=====================

Vertical wind shear has weakened and deep convection exist more closer to the center within the last past hours. Low level circulation center is no more exposed since 1030z but 0910z TRMM multisspectral imagery revealed just before a less defined low level circulation center than the previous 0414z F18 imagery. It is therefore unlikely that winds in the northern semi-circle has enough strengthen to allow the system having reached back moderate storm stage. Deep convective activity however only exist in the southeastern semi-circle. Convection keeps on flaring up, well sustained by the very favorable poleward upper level divergence. Structure is asymmetric with strongest winds extending far in the south due to the gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures. Vertical wind shear is expected to strengthen again gradually aloft as the system is approaching an upper level trough located to the southwest.

Several Numerical Weather Prediction models (as ECMWF and French model ARPEGE) clearly suggest an interaction between Ex-Cherono and the upper level trough Monday and Tuesday.. Thermodynamical structure of the system could evolve towards an hybrid form.. means subtropical form (suggested by phasis diagram from GFS). This scenario appear now likely and is reflected in the current intensity forecast. The current track towards the west southwest should maintain within the next 24-36 hours. Beyond, the more realistic forecast remains recurvature of the track southward and then southeastward in relation with a gap in the subtropical high pressure.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..

There has been 2 quakes in the last few hours moving away from Japan.

6.0 2011/03/20 08:26:11 19.008 121.261 36.6 BABUYAN ISLANDS REGION, PHILIPPINES

5.5 2011/03/20 08:00:51 22.396 121.421 17.3 TAIWAN REGION


Could there be any relation between these quakes and the major Quake and aftershocks?

Another interesting link between the Japan megaquake.
215. flsky
I think "terrihorribad" should be the key word for 2011.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I noticed that in all the super moon years terrihorribad natrual disasters have happened.Now of course this is all superstition....
Quoting caneswatch:
Groundwater readings in Florida show when Japan's earthquake hit.

Just found this. Kinda interesting.

Oh yes, MagicFan, did you say something to me about the Heat not having fans show up? There was a lot of them last night, and few empty seats.

The seimic waves travel around the world many times till they disapate, so I am not surprised.
Happy Extreme Super Moon :}
aussiestorm- I got to hear part of your interview with barometer bob, and I really enjoyed hearing your voice, it was almost like meeting you. Thanks for doing that! and it was nice to see your face again, too.
Pretty Strong Wave very far South off Africa! Good thing this was not further North and in August.

Quoting aquak9:
aussiestorm- I got to hear part of your interview with barometer bob, and I really enjoyed hearing your voice, it was almost like meeting you. Thanks for doing that! and it was nice to see your face again, too.

When was that interview? What was it about?
Thank You Skye!
Quoting Skyepony:
When is typhoon season for Asia?

I know it is winter there now, so not to worry about in that regard.
The TREND is much lower Shear in the Tropical Atlantic. Hope this does not continue into June or we might have a bunch of problems. Might even seen an Early May storm!

Symbol of a nation's agony: Boy of nine who saw his family swept away goes searching for them with a homemade sign

By Richard Shears
Last updated at 2:36 PM on 19th March 2011

Still hoping: Toshihito Aisawa holds a message written for his missing parents which reads: 'I will come at 11 o'clock tomorrow, so please wait. I will come again tomorrow.'



He has become a poignant symbol of the human tragedy in Japan.

Day after day, nine-year-old Toshihito Aisawa walks from shelter to shelter looking for his family.

Clutching hand-written signs bearing the names of his missing relatives, the schoolboy has spent the past week wandering the corridors of refugee centres in his ruined home city of Ishinomaki.

The boy last saw his mother, father and grandmother when they piled into their car in a desperate attempt to escape the tsunami.

But the car ran into a dead end and was swallowed by the killer tidal wave.

Toshihito escaped by smashing a window before being pulled, unconscious, from the water by rescuers.

Now he wanders with his sign that also reads: I will come at 11 o'clock tomorrow, so please wait. I will come again tomorrow.

There is hope, as he has already been reunited with a cousin who was in the car. Toshihito recalled the sounds of debris crashing into the sides of the vehicle as it hurtled along with the current.

When one of the objects cracked Toshihito's window, he and his cousin Yuto used their bare hands to smash the glass and claw their way out of the car.

Then something, probably a tree, came crashing through, and I had to let go (of Yuto's hand), Toshihito said. He lost consciousness until he was washed up about half an hour later on a piece of driftwood.

His clothing snagged on a bamboo branch, Toshihito was fished out of the water and taken to the home of a family friend, 64-year-old barber Mitsunari Kitahara.

Mr Kitahara said the boy had refused to show his emotions in the face of tragedy.

He has been helping out in setting the table for dinner and doing the groceries. I'm sure that it has been tough on him, but I'd never seen him cry, Mr Kitahara said.

Link
Gotta run, Everyone have a great Sunday! What a wild BB game between Butler and Pitt last night.....UNREAL!
DARPA,

Heartbreaking....

When is typhoon season for Asia?

I know it is winter there now, so not to worry about in that regard.


In May, but there are times that cyclones do form in April.
Quoting Dakster:
When is typhoon season for Asia?

I know it is winter there now, so not to worry about in that regard.

Typhoon Season goes from about April/May till October/November.
Aussie- it was on the Barometer Bob show, shortly after a few of the bad cyclones that affected Australia. I think you did it by Skype. He runs the site, Hurricane Hollow, near me here in northeast florida. Might've been a few months back, I think.
Quoting aquak9:
Aussie- it was on the Barometer Bob show, shortly after a few of the bad cyclones that affected Australia. I think you did it by Skype. He runs the site, Hurricane Hollow, near me here in northeast florida. Might've been a few months back, I think.

Ok, that was after Cyclone Yasi about a month back or so back. Btw, total number of houses decleared uninhabitable from TC Yasi, 1266.
re: post 188 and 189.

maybe it was all a bad dream?

i went to fox news this morning and i can find nothing at all about any new oil slick in the gulf of mexico.

of course, it is a busy news day today....

MOD RISK
coming up

for today
Quoting TampaSpin:
The TREND is much lower Shear in the Tropical Atlantic. Hope this does not continue into June or we might have a bunch of problems. Might even seen an Early May storm!



We've already had 90L, imo there is a good chance of a TS/ S-TS in the May 5th - 10th time frame just based on the current conditions.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


We've already had 90L, imo there is a good chance of a TS/ S-TS in the May 5th - 10th time frame just based on the current conditions.


not till this changes

Thanks jeff for informing people and doing those plots! You have helped a lot of people cope during this crisis! It looks like they're making progress. Cooling systme are running on reactor 5 and 6, but they still need to verify the operation capacity. I'm not sure about the other ones, but it seems like good news coming out of there. On the other hand, this is a horrible situation and it's probably being underplayed how much the people over there're sacrificing to survive. I already know that 200 have been working off and on at the plant knowing full well it could be suicidal. I hope it gets settled ASAP so people can move on and live their lives and I hope we remember the people who put their lives in danger to cool the reactors. So much ahs been lost in japan as a result of the earthquake.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


not till this changes



Obviously its not very likely that we're going to get a cyclone in the next 7-10 days. I'm talking about just based on compared to the normal, shear is well below average across the Tropical Atlantic although still destructive towards cyclone formation.


still rattling
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Obviously its not very likely that we're going to get a cyclone in the next 7-10 days. I'm talking about just based on compared to the normal, shear is well below average across the Tropical Atlantic although still destructive towards cyclone formation.


i know you know that

east pacific is where i begin the watch
if it gets going early fast and furious
then we see
its only 55 days till
east pacific basin start up date
of may 15
Quoting surfmom:
ooOOOOooo - starting out the day with a bang, shake & slick

1. Oil slick sighted in the Gomex

2. Japan having continued Nuke troubles

3. and some S H A K E in PI

: ( maybe she did say the sky is falling


We dunno what that is yet.

2 very different eye witness reports came in from boaters, "coast guard investigating".

BUT, this time of year, the plankton blooms and sometimes creates a sheen. (Then dies, once nutrients are depleted, decomposes, and causes anoxia.) Possible that it's simply this and not oil-related.
SST's across the entire Atlantic aren't what they were last year. But, I'm not sure if comparing the SST's to previous years really matters now, we compared 2010's SST's in March to be much warmer than what 2005 experienced and 2005 still was 9 storms more active than 2010 was. Come May and June, the SST's will be plenty warm for tropical cyclones.
That hurt
Oil Spill Reported Near Deepwater Drilling Site in Gulf
Link
Update March 20, 2011: A Coast Guard officer with a command center in Morgan City, LA, said today the Coast Guard has confirmed that oil is not coming from the Deepwater Horizon well but that they have found what appear to be smaller oil slicks in the Gulf. Their investigation into reports of large oil slicks is continuing. Additional photos and information from pilots John Waltham and Bonnie Schumaker who flew over the area yesterday are expected to be released today.

Photo: John Wathen taken yesterday -



I try my best to only post fact checked information
I'm friends w/the photographer/pilot
Low in the central Atlantic
Quoting surfmom:
Oil Spill Reported Near Deepwater Drilling Site in Gulf
Link
Update March 20, 2011: A Coast Guard officer with a command center in Morgan City, LA, said today the Coast Guard has confirmed that oil is not coming from the Deepwater Horizon well but that they have found what appear to be smaller oil slicks in the Gulf. Their investigation into reports of large oil slicks is continuing. Additional photos and information from pilots John Waltham and Bonnie Schumaker who flew over the area yesterday are expected to be released today.

Photo: John Wathen taken yesterday -


IT'S OIL ATMOAGGIE Post 242

I try my best to only post fact checked information
I'm friends w/the photographer/pilot


Heck, it might've been affected by the earthquake
Quoting TampaSpin:
Pretty Strong Wave very far South off Africa! Good thing this was not further North and in August.



It's almost being pushed backwards by the shear, LOL
Link

here is another link about the new slick in the gulf of mexico.

US Coast Guard: Reported Gulf Slick Likely Silt From Dredging

Japanese Engineers Prepare Damaged Reactors for Electrical Power

Steve Herman | Tokyo March 20, 2011



In a bit of good news Sunday, rescue workers pulled an 80-year-old woman and her 16-year-old grandson from a flooded house in the hard-hit city of Ishinomaki. The pair were evacuated by helicopter and are being treated in a hospital
Complete Update





re: post 253

Thanks for the link Pat!

I found this in the article:

Additionally, authorities said the number 5 and 6 units -- the least problematic of the six reactors -- were safely under control after newly-restored backup power sources activated water pumps that cooled storage pool temperatures below 100 degrees Celsius.


Sounds to me like both pools went dry, or else how else could the temps get above 100 C?

and there is still the issue of reactor 3.
re:247
Rather typical for March 2011 - won't develop further
Been waiting on this..latest Modis~ Lotta fires in TX. Does look like maybe some stirred up water around the LA area. Not really the same color as the photos posted from pilots lastnight.

click pic for larger view
Quoting surfmom:
Oil Spill Reported Near Deepwater Drilling Site in Gulf
Link
Update March 20, 2011: A Coast Guard officer with a command center in Morgan City, LA, said today the Coast Guard has confirmed that oil is not coming from the Deepwater Horizon well but that they have found what appear to be smaller oil slicks in the Gulf. Their investigation into reports of large oil slicks is continuing. Additional photos and information from pilots John Waltham and Bonnie Schumaker who flew over the area yesterday are expected to be released today.

Photo: John Wathen taken yesterday -



I try my best to only post fact checked information
I'm friends w/the photographer/pilot

Hokay, it's oil, apparently.

I was just musing about the possibilities before we had any confirmation of it being oil. Biology does create sheens from the perspective of a boater, at times. And spring near the MS delta is one of those times.
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:
re:247
Rather typical for March 2011 - won't develop further


Yeah I'd say it's about at it's prime, hence the sat shot (was slumming MODIS for a gulf shot). It's about to get front smacked.
Quoting Terradad:
Link

here is another link about the new slick in the gulf of mexico.

US Coast Guard: Reported Gulf Slick Likely Silt From Dredging

Not sure if that is the official position or just the musings of a local fire chief. See here: http://www.houmatoday.com/article/20110319/ARTICL ES/110319410/1211/news01?Title=Spill-reported-off- Grand-Isle&tc=ar
Possible Second Major Oil Leak in Gulf


An oil slick measuring 12 miles wide and 100 miles long has been spotted in the Gulf of Mexico and is suspected to be from a new major leak at the Matterhorn Seastar oil rig just 20 miles from the Deepwater Horizon oil rig.

Pilots from several independent organization are monitoring the slick and report it is spreading fast. Fishermen in Louisiana are reporting fresh oil slicks washing up on shore. Boom has been placed by cleanup crews to catch the spill.

The Matterhorn field produces 5200 barrels of oil a day and was discovered in 1999. The well sits in 2789 feet of water and has been in production since 2003. It is 30 miles SE of the Mississippi River delta.
Hmm, this sounds a little more serious than dredging silt and oil stirred by that operation:

Also, another Louisiana fisherman reports that fresh oil is coming ashore near South Pass, LA, and that cleanup crews are laying new boom near the beach. He also reports that cleanup crews in four-wheeled vehicles were patrolling the beaches near the marsh filled coast spraying a substance on the beach.

Cleanup crews are still operating along the marshes and beach areas of Louisiana and other gulf states. The Bay Jimmy of Louisiana's Barataria Bay remains heavily oiled.

Oil is also being discovered in more populated areas too. With spring break coming, students and tourists are already heading to the Gulf to escape the winter up north. Recently a group of Missouri college kids came across oil off the beaches of Pensicola. "We were fishing with nets for shells, we call it shelling, and it was just brown, I thought it was shark poop at first," one incredulous student told local Pensacola station WEAR-TV.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rocky-kistner/oil-s pill-reported-near-d_b_838019.html

And 246, surfmom, your link is broken. 2 http:// (commonly a problem when posting from Linux)
WSJ says:
"What was reported as a miles-long oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico is likely a plume of silt emanating from a dredging operation on the Mississippi River, a U.S. Coast Guard spokesman said Sunday. "
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704 433904576212801606559220.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Not sure buy that given the other accounts.

Other thought, anyone remember the oil platform fire from 2 weeks ago? Not at all far from this new slick.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/06/oil-off shore-platform-fire-idUSN0652883220110306
"We had a report from a crabber that it's black oil," Chiasson said.

*sigh* Not good.

http://www.dailycomet.com/article/20110320/ARTICL ES/110319410/1212?Title=Spill-reported-off-Grand-I sle-confirmed-to-be-oil
Atmo~ I remember that. Odd a shut in one caught a fire. Though that one is much more shallow than the Matterhorn area.

There was a boater account lastnight. A fisherman that had to clean it off his boat. Some good pics from pilots..
Quoting atmoaggie:

Hokay, it's oil, apparently.

I was just musing about the possibilities before we had any confirmation of it being oil. Biology does create sheens from the perspective of a boater, at times. And spring near the MS delta is one of those times.


I try to keep an open mind about these "oil spills/algae/dredging mud" reports, because I know any or all are a possibility. But I have to say, I have lost respect for the Coast Guard keeping us informed on the truth of what is happening in the GoM any more. Too often they appeared to be siding with what BP was saying after the oil spill. They went beyond just being cautious and almost appeared to be in BPs back pocket. Too often they speak out before they really know what is going on. It's a shame.
Company that owns the oil field is most likely about to tank looking at the stock volume changes. 3 month average volume is 966,898; current volume is 3,030,847 which indicates something drastic is underway.

If there is another oil spill in the gulf then I really think we need to examine what is going on down there with the oil rigs. They need to be thoroughly inspected and heavily regulated.
Even better. Something is definitely leaking.

The new slick of oil was first spotted on Friday, March 18, 2011 by a helicopter pilot. Several boat captains have confirmed that they have encountered the slick of oil and said that it is indeed fresh oil because of the odor and the way it caused eye irritation.
........
The oil sheen is suspected of coming from the Matterhorn field which includes a deepwater drilling rig, Matterhorn Seastar that is owned by W&T Technology. The oil is suspected from coming from a leak in the well which is a producing well. The Matterhorn field is located approximately 20 miles north of the Deepwater Horizon rig.


Eye irritation means that it still has the VOCs in it and is not weathered oil.

http://www.examiner.com/gulf-oil-spill-in-baton-r ouge/oil-spill-reported-gulf-of-mexico-off-louisia na-coast
Very disturbing to hear about the Gulf if this is in fact really true.

Radiation levels have spiked significantly in Ibaraki Prefecture just to the south of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. This is not necessarily due to pressure rising in containment vessel No. 3; but more likely the result of winds beginning to consistently blow onshore along with intermittent showers.

Live Coverage
If they start dumping corexit in the gulf again then this may be no accident. Having two of these incidents occur right before hurricane season starts, for 2 years in a row is highly improbable.
I am coming to this blog more and more to get my news besides the weather.Thanks again to the doc. but he sure has a loyal and very talented following. This is what the internet is suppose to be,IMO. Most of the time I'm lurking here.Some blogger's here one or two pay grades above my knowledge. PFC Pile reporting for duty.I'm out for now neither Yahoo or Google news page has a word about potential oil spill.
273. beell
Quoting alfabob:
Company that owns the oil field is most likely about to tank looking at the stock volume changes. 3 month average volume is 966,898; current volume is 3,030,847 which indicates something drastic is underway.



May want to check a few more energy stocks-for comparison.

Latest from IAEA - Japan Link

Latest quakes- world Link
275. beell
Click for discussion.

Link


Here is the fox news report on the 'substance' in the gulf.

Coast Guard Investigating Reports of Oil Spill in Gulf


re: post 276

Please note that the picture from the fox news article is from MAY 2010.

Wave of unrest shakes Syria, crowds torch party HQ

20/03/2011 4:23:41 PM

Khaled Yacoub Oweis
DAMASCUS (Reuters) - Crowds set fire to a headquarters of the ruling Baath Party in the Syrian city of Deraa on Sunday, residents said, as the wave of unrest in the Arab world shook even one of its most authoritarian states.


The demonstrators also set ablaze the main courts complex and two phone company branches. One of the firms, Syriatel, is owned by President Bashar al-Assad's cousin Rami Makhlouf.

"They burned the symbols of oppression and corruption," an activist said. "The banks nearby were not touched."

Assad, who has strengthened Syria's ties with Shi'ite Iran as he sought to improve relations with the United States and strike a peace deal with Israel to return the Golan Heights, is facing the biggest challenge to his rule since he succeeded his late father, Hafez al-Assad, 11 years ago.

He has sent government officials to try to placate Deraa but thousands rallied to demand an end to emergency law in the southern city, on the third consecutive day of protests against Syria's ruling Baath Party.

"No, no to emergency law. We are a people infatuated with freedom," marchers chanted, despite the arrival in Deraa of a government delegation to pay condolences to relatives of victims killed by security forces in demonstrations there this week.

Security forces fired tear gas at the protesters. Around 40 people were taken to be treated for gas inhalation at the main Omari mosque in the old city, residents said.

"The mosque is now a field hospital. The security forces know they cannot enter the old city without spilling more blood," one resident said.

Syria has been under emergency law since the Baath Party, which is headed by president Bashar al-Assad, took power 1963 and banned all opposition.

Makhlouf is under specific U.S. sanctions for what Washington regards as public corruption and has been a target of protesters chanting "thief." He owns several large businesses.

The protesters were in control of the old quarters of Deraa by nightfall, with heavy security presence in the rest of the city, which is near the border with Jordan.

CHILDREN DETAINED

Security forces opened fire on Friday on civilians taking part in a peaceful protest in Deraa demanding the release of 15 schoolchildren detained for writing protest graffiti, political freedoms and an end to corruption. Four people were killed.

An official statement said "infiltrators" claiming to be high ranking officers had been visiting security stations and asking security forces to fire at any suspicious gathering.

Citizens should report anyone suspected of trying to fool the security apparatus "into using violence and live ammunition against any suspicious gathering," the statement said.

The government sought to calm discontent by promising to release immediately the 15 children, who had written slogans on walls inspired by uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt.

The statement was a rare instance of Syria's ruling hierarchy responding to popular pressure.

Tens of people arrested on Friday have been released, but scores more were still in jail, activists said.

On Saturday, thousands of mourners called for "revolution" at the funeral of two of the protesters. Officials later met Deraa notables who presented then with a list of demands.

It included the release of political prisoners, dismantling of secret police headquarters in Deraa, dismissal of the governor, public trial for those responsible for the killings and scrapping of regulations requiring permission from the secret police to sell and buy property.

POLITICAL PRISONERS

Non-violent protests have challenged the Baath Party's authority this month, with the largest protests in Deraa drawing thousands of people.

A silent protest in Damascus by 150 people this week demanded the release of thousands of political prisoners. At least one activist from Deraa, Diana al-Jawabra, took part in the protest. She was arrested on charges of weakening national morale, along with 32 other protesters, a lawyer said.

Jawabra, who is from a prominent family, was campaigning for the release of the 15 schoolchildren from her home city. Another woman from Deraa, physician Aisha Aba Zeid, was arrested three weeks ago for airing a political opinion on the internet.

Residents say the two arrests helped fuel the protests in Deraa, a conservative tribal region.

Graffiti have appeared on school walls and grain silos in Deraa with phrases such as "the people want the overthrow of the regime" -- the slogan that became the rallying cry of the Egyptian and Tunisian Libyan revolutions.

Authorities responded by increasing secret police patrols and asking staff at schools and public departments to man their premises around the clock and by requiring IDs and registration for buyers of paint and spray cans.



RISE UP
wow!!! look at this storm!!
280. JRRP
Quoting TampaSpin:
The TREND is much lower Shear in the Tropical Atlantic. Hope this does not continue into June or we might have a bunch of problems. Might even seen an Early May storm!


well...
Spring arrives with the vernal equinox at 7:21pm EST this evening!
Well it looks like we blew up Gadhafi's compound in Libya with cruise missles. or aleast some of it. It was the same buildings we targeted in 1986. Source. CNN on site.
Quoting emcf30:
Well it looks like we blew up Gadhafi's compound in Libya with cruise missles. or aleast some of it. It was the same buildings we targeted in 1986. Source. CNN on site.


I am watching the coverage of this on CNN. Do you know if he was inside?
QQ, They think he is in hidding, had not seen him in last day or so.
Quoting emcf30:
QQ, They think he is in hidding, had not seen him in last day or so.


Thank you. I just hope no innocent civilians are being injured or killed.
Quoting Terradad:
re: post 276

Please note that the picture from the fox news article is from MAY 2010.


They have a habit of using old pictures with current stories.
And with equinox comes the real heat anomalies. Waiting to see how those shear predictions hold up; current models should begin to have larger errors as atmospheric patterns shift due to the degradation of the arctic air mass / sea ice. Here's an animation for the past ice extents from 2003-2011. The concentration for march so far has been nearly consistent with the date I picked, so it should be somewhat close to the months average.


Gadhafi had a lot of anti-aircraft very near to his compound. It is probably this that they were after, and there would have been collateral damage.
Quoting emcf30:
Well it looks like we blew up Gadhafi's compound in Libya with cruise missles. or aleast some of it. It was the same buildings we targeted in 1986. Source. CNN on site.


Right now it is purely speculation by a reporter. (wow, they do that?)
from CNN
"Robertson, invited by government officials to see the damage, said early Monday local time that two circular holes in the building may be telltale signs of cruise missiles, although that could not be immediately confirmed."

Last time I checked, cruise missiles, when they detonate, don't leave "two circular holes" when they hit (possibly if they both are duds? idk) they pretty much obliterate their target. But, I could be wrong, I'm no expert.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Spring arrives with the vernal equinox at 7:21pm EST this evening!
winter is done spring has come
Unfortunately, Gaddafi has filled his palaces with civilians. As in human shields.
JRRP....What do u see about the wind shear in post 280?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Unfortunately, Gaddafi has filled his palaces with civilians. As in human shields.
typical coward tactic
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Unfortunately, Gaddafi has filled his palaces with civilians. As in human shields.


I don't get the justification for what is happening in Libya. Is it a message or a mistake?

Who will be next on the list for the UN? There is certainly much unrest in the area..... Just sayin .....
from BBC

#
0011: An apparent missile strike has caused extensive damage to Col Gaddafi's compound in Tripoli. Journalists who were taken to the Bab al-Aziziya complex said a four-storey administrative building had been flattened. There has been no word of any casualties. The Pentagon has denied that Col Gaddafi is a target.
Quoting Ossqss:


I don't get the justification for what is happening in Libya. Is it a message or a mistake?

Who will be next on the list for the UN? Just sayin .....


Can't say I disagree...

p.s. you get your mail?
Quoting FirstCoastMan:
JRRP....What do u see about the wind shear in post 280?
I think shear will continue to be below average this year.The only reason why that model foresees above average shear is becuase it forecast a El nino.That false.I don't think we'll switch over that fast.
301. beell
If you take a good look at post 280, shear is below average or average from Aug to Sep. For most all of the MDR.

Shear in the Caribbean is low all season.

Just an opinion, but it does not look that detrimental for development to me.

Quoting PcolaDan:
from BBC

#
0011: An apparent missile strike has caused extensive damage to Col Gaddafi's compound in Tripoli. Journalists who were taken to the Bab al-Aziziya complex said a four-storey administrative building had been flattened. There has been no word of any casualties. The Pentagon has denied that Col Gaddafi is a target.

Ha,Ha, you bet he is in the crosshairs on this one... Remember PamAm 103 over Lockerbie ? I am sure men in the Pentagon do !!!
Doesn’t Libya have the capability of Internet access? Have they cut it off? It just surprises me after the Egypt overthrow, which kept citizens connected via Twitter, that Libya has nothing but state television.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #24
DEPRESSION TROPICALE, FORMER CHERONO (07-20102011)
4:00 AM RET March 21 2011
==========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Cherono (997 hPa) located at 22.8S 58.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 12 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
Only in the southern semi circle up to 80 NM from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
=======================
30 NM from the center extending up to 220 NM in southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5/S0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 23.8S 56.3E - 40 knots (Depression SubTropicale)
24 HRS: 25.0S 54.7E - 40 knots (Depression SubTropicale)
48 HRS: 28.0S 54.4E - 30 knots (Devenant Extratropical)
72 HRS: 30.2S 60.8E - 40 knots (Depression Extratropical)

Additional Information
=====================

Convective activity has lessening for the last 6 hours. Center has been located by extrapolation of the AVHRR-NOAA18 at 21.19z. Low level center keeps on tracking west southwestward. Upper level vertical wind shear is strengthening ahead a trough west of the system. The wind pattern of the remnant low remains asymmetric with stronger winds in the southern semi-circle in relation with the gradient effect with the subtropical high pressure (CF ASCAT data at 18.18z).

Within the next 24-36 hours, Numerical Weather Prediction models suggest that system should enter in phase with the approaching upper level trough. Ex-Chanono should evolve in a subtropical structure (CF phasis diagram from GFS). Surface wind should strengthen. Beyond, J 3 (Wednesday) system should begin its extratropical transition. System is expected to keep on tracking west southwestward to southwestward during the next 36 hours. Beyond, it should slow down and the recurve southeast and then eastward.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC.
.lby
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Doesn’t Libya have the capability of Internet access? Have they cut it off? It just surprises me after the Egypt overthrow, which kept citizens connected via Twitter, that Libya has nothing but state television.


I think they did cut it off. It's what happens when you have a tyrant running office.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Doesn%u2019t Libya have the capability of Internet access? Have they cut it off? It just surprises me after the Egypt overthrow, which kept citizens connected via Twitter, that Libya has nothing but state television.


The Libyan government shut down the Internet, including social networks of course, and then proceeded to slaughter its people (aka the opposition, rebels), from what I understand.

Here is just one report on the subject: LinkLibyaSeversInternetConnection
Question for the blog. I have been researching information on coastal vulnerability (not necessarily the index) and population growth. I can't seem to find any studies that are global in scope.

The reason is driven from looking at the loss of life from the disasters we have viewed in the last decade and , more recently, the impact of the Tsunami in Japan and Indonesia. I wanted to know.

The saw tooth shape of Japan's coast most definitely had a significant impact on the Tsunami water levels as it progressed inland. I imagine the water traveled far up some of the rivers along the coast, and there are several.

Here is how a Bore tide wave works with its physics with respect to water up a river. Looks very similar, on a smaller scale, to that of which we have been seeing from the Japan footage. Just a question from my obs.

Quoting Ossqss:
Question for the blog. I have been researching information on coastal vulnerability (not necessarily the index) and population growth. I can't seem to find any studies that are global in scope.

The reason is driven from looking at the loss of life from the disasters we have viewed in the last decade and , more recently, the impact of the Tsunami in Japan and Indonesia. I wanted to know.

The saw tooth shape of Japan's coast most definitely had a significant impact on the Tsunami water levels as it progressed inland. I imagine the water traveled far up some of the rivers along the coast, and there are several.

Here is how a Bore tide wave works with its physics with respect to water up a river. Looks very similar, on a smaller scale, to that of which we have been seeing from the Japan footage. Just a question from my obs.


What's the question?
Quoting Ossqss:
Question for the blog. I have been researching information on coastal vulnerability (not necessarily the index) and population growth. I can't seem to find any studies that are global in scope.

The reason is driven from looking at the loss of life from the disasters we have viewed in the last decade and , more recently, the impact of the Tsunami in Japan and Indonesia. I wanted to know.

The saw tooth shape of Japan's coast most definitely had a significant impact on the Tsunami water levels as it progressed inland. I imagine the water traveled far up some of the rivers along the coast, and there are several.

Here is how a Bore tide wave works with its physics with respect to water up a river. Looks very similar, on a smaller scale, to that of which we have been seeing from the Japan footage. Just a question from my obs.


Tim Roche is on Master's staff and as I remember he knows about waves. His is "Red Tim
Quoting pottery:

What's the question?


Oops, do we have any global studies on coastal vulnerability with respect to population growth trends?

I should have known to be specific :)

When you have to pre-record messages to your people, then go hide, you are in big trouble.
Quoting Ossqss:


Oops, do we have any global studies on coastal vulnerability with respect to population growth trends?

I should have known to be specific :)



This should keep you busy for a while.

Link

Link
Quoting Ossqss:


Oops, do we have any global studies on coastal vulnerability with respect to population growth trends?

I should have known to be specific :)


Interesting question.
Big scope, though.
I suppose the "storm surge projection" models could be broardened to cover this, but so many other things come into play, with a tsunami.
The exact location, distance from coast etc etc would make for a pretty general model.
The recent one, had it been 200 miles south of where it was would have made a big difference to impact, surely.
Let us know if you find anything...
Hello.
Quoting Ossqss:


Oops, do we have any global studies on coastal vulnerability with respect to population growth trends?

I should have known to be specific :)



One more.

Link
Quoting Grothar:
Hello.

Greetings.
Quoting Grothar:
Hello.


Oh God...Whoops...I mean Good.
Un-seasonably hot here today, with 34.4c at my location (about 95f) under overcast sky and heavy showers to my north.
The rain was close enough and so heavy that I could hear it falling on the forest about half-mile away.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Oh God...Whoops...I mean Good.


Sorry, I cannot respond. This is a recording. I am out of the office right now. Please leave a message and I will get back to you as soon as possible. BEEP
Early start in the morning, so I am gone....
Keep Safe, all.
Quoting Grothar:


Sorry, I cannot respond. This is a recording. I am out of the office right now. Please leave a message and I will get back to you as soon as possible. BEEP


Someone's in trouble LOL
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Oh God...Whoops...I mean Good.


He's old, but he's not quite that old.
We better get some rain soon. I have never seen it this dry. The tropics are turning into a desert. The local weather guy said yesterday, that it is the first time he can report -10% chance of rain. This are very dry in Florida. You know what the old saying is?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
When you have to pre-record messages to your people, then go hide, you are in big trouble.


Gaddafi knows he's in deep. He says "long war," but in reality, when it's the U.S., the U.K., France, some of the EU, and the Arab League against him, it will be anything but long.
Quoting caneswatch:


Someone's in trouble LOL


What did you do now?
Quoting Grothar:
We better get some rain soon. I have never seen it this dry. The tropics are turning into a desert. The local weather guy said yesterday, that it is the first time he can report -10% chance of rain. This are very dry in Florida. You know what the old saying is?


We had this happen in 2004. Dry as a desert, then knocked down by 4 hurricanes.
Quoting Grothar:


What did you do now?


The question is what did YOU do LOL
Quoting caneswatch:


The question is what did YOU do LOL


Been a little busy lately.
330. beell
Quoting Ossqss:


Oops, do we have any global studies on coastal vulnerability with respect to population growth trends?

I should have known to be specific :)



Christopher Robin has conducted extensive research on this subject. An excerpt from his study:

Every morning he went out with his umbrella and put a stick in the place where the water came up to, and every next morning he went out and couldn’t see his stick any more, so he put another stick in the place where the water came up to, and then he walked home again, and each morning he had a shorter walk than he had the morning before.

[A.A.Milne, Winnie-the-Pooh]


Quoting beell:
If you take a good look at post 280, shear is below average or average from Aug to Sep. For most all of the MDR.

Shear in the Caribbean is low all season.

Just an opinion, but it does not look that detrimental for development to me.



A better thing to take a look at, before even we consider the CFS's forecast this far out, would be the CFS verification of wind shear and even more so it's verification in predicting ENSO, since we are talking about a coupled ocean-atmospheric phenomena.

I think the CFS does a poor to average job in predicting ENSO and pales in comparison to the ECMWF seasonal prediction system. If the CFS does a poor job in predicting ENSO then that will certainly affect its wind shear forecast. Last year it really didn't grasp how much below average shear would be in the MDR until we got into May.

It is true that the CFS is better at forecasting closer to the event, but can that not be said for any of the notable seasonal forecast models.
Quoting Grothar:


Been a little busy lately.


Doing what LOL
Quoting beell:


Christopher Robin has conducted extensive research on this subject. An excerpt from his study:

Every morning he went out with his umbrella and put a stick in the place where the water came up to, and every next morning he went out and couldn’t see his stick any more, so he put another stick in the place where the water came up to, and then he walked home again, and each morning he had a shorter walk than he had the morning before.

[A.A.Milne, Winnie-the-Pooh]




LOL, I did that once in Pennsylvania during a flood in the 70's on the Ohio river. I think my sticks ended up in Ohio, but that was down stream too :)
For the latest technical information regarding the reactors in Japan...

brought to you by MIT, here is the link.

Very informative.

MIT NSE Nuclear Information Hub

Note: Latest updates are from today, March 20th.


Quoting Drakoen:


A better thing to take a look at, before even we consider the CFS's forecast this far out, would be the CFS verification of wind shear and even more so it's verification in predicting ENSO, since we are talking about a coupled ocean-atmospheric phenomena.

I think the CFS does a poor job in predicting ENSO and pales in comparison to the ECMWF seasonal prediction system. If the CFS does a poor job in predicting ENSO then that will certainly affect its wind shear forecast. Last year it really didn't grasp how much below average shear would be in the MDR until we got into May.

It is true that the CFS is better at forecasting closer to the event, but can that not be said for any of the notable seasonal forecast models.


Have you seen any recent studies on the Arctic dipole affecting the AO for this coming season. Even though the Arctic dipole information is relatively new to the forecasting, are they including it in any windshear forecasts for the Atlantic season? I can't seem to find any.
Quoting Ossqss:


LOL, I did that once in Pennsylvania during a flood in the 70's on the Ohio river. I think my sticks ended up in Ohio, but that was down stream too :)


Would that have been in 1972? When the remnants of Agnes stayed over Pennsylvania for days.
Oil sheen maybe not from a serious long-term incident...still not a good thing, though.

Oil from well being plugged may be cause of beach pollution

Oil was released into the Gulf of Mexico south of Grand Isle for four to six hours Saturday, the apparent source of oil that washed ashore on Louisiana beaches Sunday, a Jefferson Parish Council member said.

The source of the leak has been secured, Councilman Chris Roberts said in an email.

There have been reports that Grand Isle and other barrier islans had been polluted by the oil.

Roberts said Coast Guard Capt. John Burton, the commanding officer of the Coast Guard Marine Safety Unit in Morgan City, said a drilling site was being plugged when the leak occurred.

http://www.nola.com/news/index.ssf/2011/03/oil_co nfirmed_in_gulf.html

And..."islans"? Do journalists not know how to use a spell checker? If not, they do very well spelling most words correctly and we should be impressed they only miss one or two, or something.
338. beell
Quoting Drakoen:


A better thing to take a look at, before even we consider the CFS's forecast this far out, would be the CFS verification of wind shear and even more so it's verification in predicting ENSO, since we are talking about a coupled ocean-atmospheric phenomena.

I think the CFS does a poor to average job in predicting ENSO and pales in comparison to the ECMWF seasonal prediction system. If the CFS does a poor job in predicting ENSO then that will certainly affect its wind shear forecast. Last year it really didn't grasp how much below average shear would be in the MDR until we got into May.

It is true that the CFS is better at forecasting closer to the event, but can that not be said for any of the notable seasonal forecast models.


All great points, nicely stated, Drak (you euro sellout you, lol).

Only stating an opinion on interpretation. Does not matter what model is used if one mis-interprets the output.
Quoting clamshell:
For the latest technical information regarding the reactors in Japan...

brought to you by MIT, here is the link.

Very informative.

MIT NSE Nuclear Information Hub

Note: Latest updates are from today, March 20th.


Realtime radiation monitoring in Tokyo definitely shows the winds have switched. Hope it doesn't keep going up at this rate for long (but I think it will for a couple of days).

Quoting Grothar:


Would that have been in 1972? When the remnants of Agnes stayed over Pennsylvania for days.


Yep, that was one of a few during that decade. Hand pumping water, with a manual bilge pump (yep, no electric version) , out of my families basement, just outside of Pittsburgh, remains forever embedded in my memory banks. Ouch!

that was probably too many comma's :P
Quoting Ossqss:


Yep, that was one of a few during that decade. Hand pumping water, with a manual bilge pump (yep, no electric version) , out of my families basement, just outside of Pittsburgh, remains forever embedded in my memory banks. Ouch!

that was probably too many comma's :P
Yeah, but commas save lives.

For example:
"Let's eat grandma!"
Situation Update No. 1
On 20.03.2011 at 20:07 GMT+2

An oil slick measuring 12 miles wide and 100 miles long has been spotted in the Gulf of Mexico and is suspected to be from a new major leak at the Matterhorn Seastar oil rig just 20 miles from the Deepwater Horizon oil rig. Pilots from several independent organization are monitoring the slick and report it is spreading fast. Fishermen in Louisiana are reporting fresh oil slicks washing up on shore. Boom has been placed by cleanup crews to catch the spill. The Matterhorn field produces 5200 barrels of oil a day and was discovered in 1999. The well sits in 2789 feet of water and has been in production since 2003. It is 30 miles SE of the Mississippi River delta.
Quoting Grothar:


Have you seen any recent studies on the Arctic dipole affecting the AO for this coming season. Even though the Arctic dipole information is relatively new to the forecasting, are they including it in any windshear forecasts for the Atlantic season? I can't seem to find any.


No, I haven't seen research comparing the Arctic dipole to hurricane. But that is only because I haven't specifically looked up research on it.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Yeah, but commas save lives.

For example:
"Let's eat grandma!"


Leave him alone atmo. He was probably out of breath pumping the bilge. Have you no mercy? LOL
Good to see you back Drak. Looking forward to your imput this season.
Atmo~ It's amazing how well this story is being buried, at times behind fluff of how the last spill is a distant memory.
Quoting Drakoen:


No, I haven't seen research comparing the Arctic dipole to hurricane. But that is only because I haven't specifically looked up research on it.


Thanks, Drak. I'll keep looking.
Oil from well being plugged may be cause of beach pollution
Published: Sunday, March 20, 2011, 9:04 PM


Oil was released into the Gulf of Mexico south of Grand Isle for four to six hours Saturday, the apparent source of oil that washed ashore on Louisiana beaches Sunday, a Jefferson Parish Council member said.

The source of the leak has been secured, Councilman Chris Roberts said in an email.

There have been reports that Grand Isle and other barrier islans had been polluted by the oil.

Roberts said Coast Guard Capt. John Burton, the commanding officer of the Coast Guard Marine Safety Unit in Morgan City, said a drilling site was being plugged when the leak occurred.

On Saturday, the Coast Guard received varying reports detailing a sheen between three and 100 miles long, starting about six miles off the coast of Grand Isle. However, the Guard apparently is investigating that as a separate incident.

The Coast Guard had investigated the sheen by sending out a cutter to collect samples, Coast Guard spokeswoman Casey Ranel said.

The Coast Guard said the samples contained "only trace amounts of petroleum hydrocarbons, oil and grease."

The Coast Guard said "the dark substance (in the Gulf) is believed to be caused by a tremendous amount of sediment being carried down the Mississippi River due to high water, possibly further agitated by dredging operations."

The Guard said it is deploying boom to protect areas where "an oily substance was washing ashore on Elmer Isle, Fourchon Beach and Grand Isle."

The Guard is treating the the beach oilings as separate from the sheen it said contained only trace amounts of hydrocarbons.

"We have 10,000 feet of hard boom and 9,000 feet of five-inch sorbent boom ordered into the area. We have 5,000 feet of each boom already delivered and staged in Grand Isle," Burton said.

A company has been hired to clean up the impacted shorelines, the Coast Guard said.

"Samples have been taken from the shoreline impacts for testing, but the oily substance is not, at this time, suspected to be residual oil from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill," the Coast Guard said in a press release.

Grand Isle Fire Chief Aubrey Chaisson said he saw the substance up close Sunday aboard a boat and also viewed it from a helicopter. He said the substance, which covered about a two to three-mile area, looked like "emulsified oil."

The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Yeah, but commas save lives.

For example:
"Let's eat grandma!"


LOL, (comma) Thankfully, (comma) we had the Commadores! Did I spell that right? Gnight~~~ on to the night shift,,,,,

Make it a good week folks! :)

Quoting Skyepony:
Situation Update No. 1
On 20.03.2011 at 20:07 GMT+2

An oil slick measuring 12 miles wide and 100 miles long has been spotted in the Gulf of Mexico and is suspected to be from a new major leak at the Matterhorn Seastar oil rig just 20 miles from the Deepwater Horizon oil rig. Pilots from several independent organization are monitoring the slick and report it is spreading fast. Fishermen in Louisiana are reporting fresh oil slicks washing up on shore. Boom has been placed by cleanup crews to catch the spill. The Matterhorn field produces 5200 barrels of oil a day and was discovered in 1999. The well sits in 2789 feet of water and has been in production since 2003. It is 30 miles SE of the Mississippi River delta.



Are you kidding not another? OMG!
Yeah,,The S.W.A.T. Teams are en route.
Quoting Skyepony:
Atmo~ It's amazing how well this story is being buried, at times behind fluff of how the last spill is a distant memory.
And, so far, this is weird. The coast guard tests the stuff and comes back with "found only trace amounts of petroleum that were well below the state of Louisiana's standard for clean water. A news release says The Coast Guard believes the discoloration is the result of sediments brought down the Mississippi River."
http://ap.stripes.com/dynamic/stories/U/US_GULF_C OAST_GUARD?SITE=DCSAS&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAUL T&CTIME=2011-03-20-09-17-30
(Well, my water doesn't have any trace amounts, thank you.)

And we have the fire chief in Grand Isle that says, "yup, it looks like emulsified oil". I'll not presume he might know what it looks like or not.

But, we also have oil that needs to be washed off of boats, and mariners claiming to have seen oil, smelled VOCs, and had the burning eyes as a result. And, oh look, there's some of it on the freaking beach!

No doubt that the sediment at the bottom of the MS river is rather nasty (thanks Memphis, St Louis, Omaha, and Minneapolis), but now I'm wondering if the coast guard sampled the right patch of discolored water.
Pat~ That say's Matterhorn had a letting on Saturday. Here's article we were reading lastnight. Said it was originally spotted the day before (fri) & skimming had been going on 24hrs already. Interesting the 3rd photo down is dated 3.12.11. But then again they are one of the few independents watching this.

Here's the tracker of the plane that got the photos (On Wings of Care). They weren't in the area Thurs. Flew pretty much the same path fri, sat & sun (they are out there right now). Those last 3 days are pretty much the same path.
Quoting Skyepony:
Pat~ That say's Matterhorn had a letting on Saturday. Here's article we were reading lastnight. Said it was originally spotted the day before (fri) & skimming had been going on 24hrs already. Interesting the 3rd photo down is dated 3.12.11. But then again they are one of the few independents watching this.

Here's the tracker of the plane that got the photos (On Wings of Care). They weren't in the area Thurs. Flew pretty much the same path fri, sat & sun (they are out there right now). Those last 3 days are pretty much the same path.
The article Pat (and I) posted isn't speaking of the Matterhorn production well, IMO.

"Roberts said Coast Guard Capt. John Burton, the commanding officer of the Coast Guard Marine Safety Unit in Morgan City, said a drilling site was being plugged when the leak occurred."

This reads a lot more like an exploration well. "Drilling" being the cue. I seriously doubt the one well, a producing well, on the Matterhorn field was plugged. Unless it was wildly out of control, that is...

Or maybe the 3rd hand info is just plain garbled.
New Oil Slick immediately off the coast of Grand Isle Louisiana

On March 18, 2011, I took a flight over the Gulf Coast with Bonny Schumaker of On Wings of Care, http://onwingsofcare.org/ from Horn Island Mississippi all the way to Raccoon Island to check on the status of wildlife, marshes, and other impacts from the BP Oil Spill. When we were slightly east of Grand Isle and Grand Terre island I started to see those familiar reddish streaks in the water, which extended from east of Grand Isle, Elmer’s Island, where it was very heavy, and past Fourchon almost to Timbalier Bay. I was hoping it was a red algae bloom especially after I saw pods of dolphin swimming in the red tide, but after submitting a few images to a marine biologist, I was informed that there was no way it could be algae, the temperature is not hot enough. Unfortunately there has been another spill. The exact source has yet to be determined but Bonny is flying out again today to try and track the source of the oil. As we all remember, BP’s Macondo well spewed more than 200 million gallons of crude into the Gulf last year.


There's a bunch of pics from the plane at that link.
I see what you mean.

My point is this big slick was there well before the 4-6 hours on Saturday, when some oil allegedly leaked while plugging up that well that the councilman assures us is fixed.
Folks over at The Oil Drum have picked up on the oil sheen/spill. The thread is here for anyone interested. Obviously, there will be more tomorrow.

[-] ROCKMAN on March 20, 2011 - 6:44pm

id - Time will tell. Hopefully when the sun comes up we'll know what's going on. FYI: an oil "sheen" has been reported...not an oil slick. A spill of one gallon can create a sheen that covers square miles. Might be from the W&T rig, might be a natural seep, might be from some ship's bilge dump.

As I said...time will tell. The Coast Guard has gotten good at this lately.


These photos were taken yesterday. Photos 63, 64, 65 seem to show a lot of sheen? (page 4 of album)
http://s291.photobucket.com/albums/ll297/creekkee per_2008/BP%20Slick%20p...

[-] ROCKMAN on March 20, 2011 - 9:41pm

gmf - Thanks but couldn't locate those specific pics. Some the shots might be oil on the surface but a lot of the shots aren't. The ones showing very sharp contrasts are tide lines: the muddy coastal waters meeting the clean Gulf waters. See that all the time. But there's no point in speculating about the pics. By now the Coast Guard should know exactly what's oil and what's not. The choppers have dip lines they can catch samples with. And obviously they had at least one cutter out there by now catching samples if they felt there was the need.

We should be seeing an official statement by lunch Monday.

Link


Here is a report posted at 3pm Saturday. It says that the first call came in at 11am Saturday.



Possible oil sheen under investigation in Gulf of Mexico could be large
I would say the chances are moderate to high for a decent sized leak right now. The reason why I was pointing out the stock volumes earlier is because it makes the stock seem more secure for investors who don't know what they are doing. Allows the ones who have larger stakes in the company to cash out before the stocks begin to plummet. Could be wrong though, but a similar thing happened during deep-horizon. In-fact similar scams occur through any major event, such as 9-11; which once again blackstone, goldman sachs and Rothschild were directly connected to.
Good. Radiation levels in Tokyo seem to leveling out and going back down without hitting a worrisome level. Hope that holds true.

Maybe Ann Coulter will get on Fox and tell us the benefits of oil in the water. Thank God everything is so easily explained there. Move along now sheep.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Good. Radiation levels in Tokyo seem to leveling out and going back down without hitting a worrisome level. Hope that holds true.



They have much more to worry about than what those Geiger counters are saying. They will have soil and general environmental contamination for a while; in which most of the more cancer causing radiation is more difficult to pick up because a small volume of air can stop it. I did some more research earlier today and found that plutonium for some reason sticks to certain receptors biologically. The other compounds which are in larger concentrations compared to non-MOX fuel become more widely dispersed internally and can cause lung, liver, kidney and bone cancer (they also have much shorter half-lifes, but not short enough to become quickly removed from the environment).

In fact, from the beta radiation in that graph I posted; the US may need to worry about future cancer rates. This is why I've been trying to inform people that the situation is being down-played. The first increase in activity is most likely from the first explosion and releases, the second is from reactor #3 coinciding with the atmospheric models.
The best, most concise, radiation chart I have seen: Link

This should help put things into context when translating from hype-speak (OMG!! Radiation is ten times normal!) to rational thought (Oh. That's all it is.).
Except the current model for comparing radiation dose doesn't really make sense; because even when comparing different types of radiation, it's like comparing apples to oranges..

"Throughout the operating cycle, MOX cores have larger inventories than LEU cores of most transuranic (TRU) radionuclides, including plutonium-239 (Pu-239), americium-241 (Am-241) and curium-242 (Cm-242). Since many of these radionuclides are long-lived alpha-emitters, with relatively high radiotoxicities if inhaled or ingested, small releases during an accident can contribute significantly to public radiation exposure."

Link

In addition, how exactly would you measure the presence of alpha radiation in the environment when the cross-section for interaction is extremely large (indicating that even while moving through the atmosphere, it is likely to be absorbed).
368. xcool



ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE.cold weather SE STATE
Quoting alfabob:


They have much more to worry about than what those Geiger counters are saying. They will have soil and general environmental contamination for a while; in which most of the more cancer causing radiation is more difficult to pick up because a small volume of air can stop it. I did some more research earlier today and found that plutonium for some reason sticks to certain receptors biologically. The other compounds which are in larger concentrations compared to non-MOX fuel become more widely dispersed internally and can cause lung, liver, kidney and bone cancer (they also have much shorter half-lifes, but not short enough to become quickly removed from the environment).

In fact, from the beta radiation in that graph I posted; the US may need to worry about future cancer rates. This is why I've been trying to inform people that the situation is being down-played. The first increase in activity is most likely from the first explosion and releases, the second is from reactor #3 coinciding with the atmospheric models.


The situation is not being downplayed. You are being overly dramatic. Cancer rates do not go up appreciably until radiation levels get MUCH higher.

Minimum dose where cancer rates start going up: 100 mSv/yr (the m stands for milli, or 10^-3)

Conversion factor from CPM to uSv/hr: 120 (the u stands for micro, or 10^-6)

Hourly rate needed to have any effect on cancer rates: .011 mSv/hr

CPM equivalent for this effect: 120 * .011x10^-3/1x10^-6 = 1320 CPM

To have any effect on cancer rates, the radiation level would need to increase more than 10 times the highest peak in your graph, and stay there for an entire year.

You've got more to fear from eating bananas, and salt substitutes.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


The situation is not being downplayed. You are being overly dramatic. Cancer rates do not go up appreciably until radiation levels get MUCH higher.

Minimum dose where cancer rates start going up: 100 mSv/yr (the m stands for milli, or 10^-3)

Conversion factor from CPM to uSv/hr: 120 (the u stands for micro, or 10^-6)

Hourly rate needed to have any effect on cancer rates: .011 mSv/hr

CPM equivalent for this effect: 120 * .011x10^-3/1x10^-6 = 1320 CPM

To have any effect on cancer rates, the radiation level would need to increase more than 10 times the highest peak in your graph, and stay there for an entire year.

You've got more to fear from eating bananas, and salt substitutes.


Ok so your calculations differentiate between external, internal, gamma, beta and alpha?

Oh and let's not forget physiological interactions.
oh nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooes
Passenger jet slices the Moon in half.

Pilot blames altimeter malfunction.

While not about the FukushimaDaiichi coverage itself, a first hand account of The Media vs Science seems apt.
Quoting xcool:



ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE.cold weather SE STATE


I guess that means we're going to have our usual "Easter Snap" ( southern term, lol ) One last winter fling, huh? Well xcool, I was sure hoping that wasn't gonna happen....gardens will have to wait...Oh, well...:)
Quoting aspectre:
oh nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooes
Passenger jet slices the Moon in half.

Pilot blames altimeter malfunction.

While not about the FukushimaDaiichi coverage itself, a first hand account of The Media vs Science seems apt.


We are lucky that our current technology does not allow us to split the moon in half, otherwise it might have happened by now. But I agree with the parts I skimmed over in the link, climate change mitigation should not be about destroying society. Even if we managed to stop emitting all forms of carbon and methane, it would do us absolutely nothing at this point. The only solution is technology (mainly nanotechnology), and depriving 6 billion people of what they have been living with for most of their lives will only accelerate climate change and cause suffering.
Quoting alfabob:
Except the current model for comparing radiation dose doesn't really make sense; because even when comparing different types of radiation, it's like comparing apples to oranges..

"Throughout the operating cycle, MOX cores have larger inventories than LEU cores of most transuranic (TRU) radionuclides, including plutonium-239 (Pu-239), americium-241 (Am-241) and curium-242 (Cm-242). Since many of these radionuclides are long-lived alpha-emitters, with relatively high radiotoxicities if inhaled or ingested, small releases during an accident can contribute significantly to public radiation exposure."

Link

In addition, how exactly would you measure the presence of alpha radiation in the environment when the cross-section for interaction is extremely large (indicating that even while moving through the atmosphere, it is likely to be absorbed).


No, the current measures for radiation exposure are quite standard and apply equally to all forms of ionizing radiation. There is no way to standardize radiation exposure based on physical damage, as that can vary between different organisms and even between people, especially when comparing people who live in naturally radioactive areas.

You are also still focusing on just alpha emitters, which even in MOX fuel is a minor component. Highly radioactive beta and gamma emitters, which make up the bulk of fission products, are a much greater concern.

Even the paper you cited makes note of this in several areas. What they're arguing in the paper is that severe nuclear accidents are capable of dispersing low volatile actinides like plutonium. Their severe case they use in their argument? A raging multi-thousand degree inferno capable of boiling steel, a.k.a Chernobyl.

Later in the paper, where they get to the large percentage LCF's, the simulations were using full MOX core reactors, which the Japanese aren't using. And once again, I point out that the paper is making the assumption of severe accidents.

Even the author of the paper, Edwin Lyman, wrote an article about the reactors here stating that latent cancer risk for people near the reactors would only rise by 10% IF there is a severe nuclear accident, which there hasn't been.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


No, the current measures for radiation exposure are quite standard and apply equally to all forms of ionizing radiation. There is no way to standardize radiation exposure based on physical damage, as that can vary between different organisms and even between people, especially when comparing people who live in naturally radioactive areas.

You are also still focusing on just alpha emitters, which even in MOX fuel is a minor component. Highly radioactive beta and gamma emitters, which make up the bulk of fission products, are a much greater concern.

Even the paper you cited makes note of this in several areas. What they're arguing in the paper is that severe nuclear accidents are capable of dispersing low volatile actinides like plutonium. Their severe case they use in their argument? A raging multi-thousand degree inferno capable of boiling steel, a.k.a Chernobyl.

Later in the paper, where they get to the large percentage LCF's, the simulations were using full MOX core reactors, which the Japanese aren't using. And once again, I point out that the paper is making the assumption of severe accidents.

Even the author of the paper, Edwin Lyman, wrote an article about the reactors here stating that latent cancer risk for people near the reactors would only rise by 10% IF there is a severe nuclear accident, which there hasn't been.


First I can assure you that there was a severe nuclear accident, and the fact that IAEA doesn't rate this as a 7 does not mean that it isn't as bad as Chernobyl. No one has offered proof otherwise, and the literature on MOX fuel supports my claim that a fuel/coolant incident occurred at #3; and pictures of it show that all layers of containment were breached. The only reason why local residents are not extremely sick right now is because 95% of it has been blown offshore. So really you are relying on the advice of those who have been shown in multiple occasions to have lied or withheld information.

Second, the paper refers to several types of MOX mixtures. The numbers I had quoted earlier were based upon non-spent, non-reactor grade MOX; this was a best case scenario. So if in fact I am correct about the physiological and situational dependent exposure rates, then something such as Chernobyl would have 4 to 7 times less alpha emitters than reactor 3. The EOC (end of cycle) amounts are higher in the more physiologically important isotopes, as plutonium usually sticks to certain receptors and can be eliminated from the body. Curium and Americium do not behave this way and are therefore much different than any previous situation.

I wish reality was as simple as you are trying to make it, but it's not; and usually all "profession" calculations cannot be solved without differential equations and/or numeric methods.
Quoting alfabob:


Ok so your calculations differentiate between external, internal, gamma, beta and alpha?

Oh and let's not forget physiological interactions.


In order to get enough exposure to cause issues, there has to be enough material, and it has to stay near or inside you for the necessary length of time to have an effect.

1. There isn't enough material in the immediate vicinity. Born out by your graph.

2. There isn't enough to appreciably accumulate above background. Borrow an ecotest terra or a gamma pro or some other digital geiger counter capable of picking up alpha and greater radiation. Now get close to ground, concrete, road, whatever and take a few CPM measurements. Sample this over as wide an area as you want. For fun, sample salt substitute, bananas, and a pack of cigarettes. If you live in NH, go into a basement. For extra fun, sample an area downwind of a coal plant. Don't be to surprised to find that many things, including dirt, naturally give off much higher readings than 125 CPM, and there is a 100% chance you're ingesting those everyday.

3. There isn't enough material to appreciably bioaccumulate. You can either ingest a lot in a short amount of time or the stuff can just hang around the body. The biological half life for many fission by products are less than a year. Radioactive strontium, calcium, radium, are notable exceptions as they like to hang out in the bone structure. Plutonium is the longest lasting, however it is man made so unlikely to be encountered outside of a severe nuclear accident. So unless we receive a constant influx of not-insignificant amounts of fission by-products, the stuff isn't going to bioaccumulate either.

You're going to suffer from cancer by breathing in LA smog long before you get cancer from Japan's nuclear reactors.
Quoting alfabob:


We are lucky that our current technology does not allow us to split the moon in half, otherwise it might have happened by now. But I agree with the parts I skimmed over in the link, climate change mitigation should not be about destroying society. Even if we managed to stop emitting all forms of carbon and methane, it would do us absolutely nothing at this point. The only solution is technology (mainly nanotechnology), and depriving 6 billion people of what they have been living with for most of their lives will only accelerate climate change and cause suffering.


Source for all this about stopping now would do nothing, or any of the other 'facts'? If everyone went green right now it would save society. It's probably the only thing that can, right now.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


In order to get enough exposure to cause issues, there has to be enough material, and it has to stay near or inside you for the necessary length of time to have an effect.

1. There isn't enough material in the immediate vicinity. Born out by your graph.

2. There isn't enough to appreciably accumulate above background. Borrow an ecotest terra or a gamma pro or some other digital geiger counter capable of picking up alpha and greater radiation. Now get close to ground, concrete, road, whatever and take a few CPM measurements. Sample this over as wide an area as you want. For fun, sample salt substitute, bananas, and a pack of cigarettes. If you live in NH, go into a basement. For extra fun, sample an area downwind of a coal plant. Don't be to surprised to find that many things, including dirt, naturally give off much higher readings than 125 CPM, and there is a 100% chance you're ingesting those everyday.

3. There isn't enough material to appreciably bioaccumulate. You can either ingest a lot in a short amount of time or the stuff can just hang around the body. The biological half life for many fission by products are less than a year. Radioactive strontium, calcium, radium, are notable exceptions as they like to hang out in the bone structure. Plutonium is the longest lasting, however it is man made so unlikely to be encountered outside of a severe nuclear accident. So unless we receive a constant influx of not-insignificant amounts of fission by-products, the stuff isn't going to bioaccumulate either.

You're going to suffer from cancer by breathing in LA smog long before you get cancer from Japan's nuclear reactors.


That graph was solely of beta radiation, which the isotopes of Pu, Cm and Am do not undergo until 2 to 7 alpha decays. So any radiation that was measured must have contained large amounts of these or other elements in order to increase the measurement at several ground locations. For example, if background increases by 5 to 10 CPM; then you have 5 or 10 atoms decaying and directing that decay straight to the sensor. So these small increases mean a lot when your not right next to the reactors.
it is incredible how the temps are dropping in PR,like right now it is 59 dgs. eventhough we are in Cuaresma (prior to Holy Week) period and usually on this period the temps are above 85 dgs. Anything that I should now about the climate?
Quoting alfabob:


First I can assure you that there was a severe nuclear accident, and the fact that IAEA doesn't rate this as a 7 does not mean that it isn't as bad as Chernobyl. No one has offered proof otherwise, and the literature on MOX fuel supports my claim that a fuel/coolant incident occurred at #3; and pictures of it show that all layers of containment were breached. The only reason why local residents are not extremely sick right now is because 95% of it has been blown offshore. So really you are relying on the advice of those who have been shown in multiple occasions to have lied or withheld information.

Second, the paper refers to several types of MOX mixtures. The numbers I had quoted earlier were based upon non-spent, non-reactor grade MOX; this was a best case scenario. So if in fact I am correct about the physiological and situational dependent exposure rates, then something such as Chernobyl would have 4 to 7 times less alpha emitters than reactor 3. The EOC (end of cycle) amounts are higher in the more physiologically important isotopes, as plutonium usually sticks to certain receptors and can be eliminated from the body. Curium and Americium do not behave this way and are therefore much different than any previous situation.

I wish reality was as simple as you are trying to make it, but it's not; and usually all "profession" calculations cannot be solved without differential equations and/or numeric methods.


Sorry, the the data just isn't there to back you up. You're falling back on the conspiracy angle which I always have a problem with. You may have convinced yourself that you are correct, but there isn't any corroborating evidence of a severe nuclear disaster capable of affecting the west coast in any appreciable manner.

Geiger counters have sold out just about everywhere online at about 400%-800% markup in some cases. They're backordered for months. I think we'll here it millions of people tart yelling and screaming about being lied to about radiation coming from Japan.
Quoting greentortuloni:


Source for all this about stopping now would do nothing, or any of the other 'facts'? If everyone went green right now it would save society. It's probably the only thing that can, right now.


Well I took about 3 days and gathered 50+ research papers, models, glacier data, gas concentration, absorption spectrum, ECT; and calculated that our current net gain in thermal energy is more than is emitted from the Earth (geo, tidal, AGW). So even if suddenly everything died off, we would still be gaining about 60%-70% of what we are right now. So there are 2 ways to fix the problem: absorb the gas and store it, which in it self creates more waste heat and emissions; or absorb the heat via infrared solar panels and re-emit through the "atmospheric window". Both require advances in current technology. I guess if we cut down and limited our daily lifestyles/some migration, then it could maybe buy us a few additional years. But basically its a storage of energy problem, combined with logistics (limited amount of moves).
Quoting TORMENTOSO83:
it is incredible how the temps are dropping in PR,like right now it is 59 dgs. eventhough we are in Cuaresma (prior to Holy Week) period and usually on this period the temps are above 85 dgs. Anything that I should now about the climate?
I think it is attributable to the NAO, which recently made the switch to positive. A positive NAO strengthens the Bermuda-Azores ridge, effectively strengthening the trade winds, which in turn produces evaporative cooling. Here are some maps comparing the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of the Caribbean from one month ago to present

February 19:



March 19:



And now, the NAO:



Also, notice how it's poised (at least according to the ECMWF) to quickly transition back to negative, which would weaken the Bermuda-Azores ridge and promote weaker trade winds, and thus warming. However, the associated warming would most likely be temporary, given that it is forecast to transition right back into the positive territory within just days after that.

Unfortunately, I lack the GFS' forecast at the moment, so I'm unsure of any potential consensus.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Sorry, the the data just isn't there to back you up. You're falling back on the conspiracy angle which I always have a problem with. You may have convinced yourself that you are correct, but there isn't any corroborating evidence of a severe nuclear disaster capable of affecting the west coast in any appreciable manner.

Geiger counters have sold out just about everywhere online at about 400%-800% markup in some cases. They're backordered for months. I think we'll here it millions of people tart yelling and screaming about being lied to about radiation coming from Japan.


I think I have provided ample evidence over the past few days, if you wish not to believe so then don't. I don't really get what you mean with conspiracy angle, it's common sense that a situation like this would be downplayed. Official statements mean absolutely nothing until independently checked. I couldn't imagine how the scientific community would be if it ran like most governments and the media does. So if you mean accepting how reality and history is as conspiracy, then I guess a small portion of my argument could be seen as that.
Huh, seems hotlinking isn't allowed on Huffman's site. Oh well. You can find the NAO index for the ECMWF model here.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Sorry, the the data just isn't there to back you up. You're falling back on the conspiracy angle which I always have a problem with. You may have convinced yourself that you are correct, but there isn't any corroborating evidence of a severe nuclear disaster capable of affecting the west coast in any appreciable manner.

Geiger counters have sold out just about everywhere online at about 400%-800% markup in some cases. They're backordered for months. I think we'll here it millions of people tart yelling and screaming about being lied to about radiation coming from Japan.


Yeah Nuclear Physicists have made it clear that dangerous radiation will not reach the West Coast. I have read clear explanations why they believe so, and and once you see the facts, you should come to the awareness that dangerous radiation will not reach the west coast of the US. if a not, you would have to either be consumed with fear, or you just like believing conspiracies with no scientific backing.

The concentration reaching the West Coast isn't and won't be anywhere close to being dangerous. People are just letting panic control their thinking instead of reasonable judgment.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


The situation is not being downplayed. You are being overly dramatic. Cancer rates do not go up appreciably until radiation levels get MUCH higher.

Minimum dose where cancer rates start going up: 100 mSv/yr (the m stands for milli, or 10^-3)

Conversion factor from CPM to uSv/hr: 120 (the u stands for micro, or 10^-6)

Hourly rate needed to have any effect on cancer rates: .011 mSv/hr

CPM equivalent for this effect: 120 * .011x10^-3/1x10^-6 = 1320 CPM

To have any effect on cancer rates, the radiation level would need to increase more than 10 times the highest peak in your graph, and stay there for an entire year.

You've got more to fear from eating bananas, and salt substitutes.



hahaha its funny cause I just posted the same thing about eating bananas yesterday :)
Quoting Jedkins01:



hahaha its funny cause I just posted the same thing about eating bananas yesterday :)


Bananas lay very hard on the tummy before bedtime as they are actually very hard to digest......just sayn....LOL
I would appreciate it if people would stop being hypocritical in this argument; last time I checked most nuclear physicists don't know much about the atmosphere or physiology (and I am also a physicist trained in multiple disciplines). Also I have been presented no proof that what I am saying is incorrect, so there's no data backing you up; just people's opinions. Opinions mean nothing, only substantial evidence and measurements is what I'm looking for.
And once again, this look's like a little bit more than nothing; or "minuscule" considering the gamma measurements were around 3000 CPM (in addition to beta, I only used it to clarify the signal and scale). Actually, by gross they probably mean by time interval; so these would be divided by 60. But summed up the total CPM is around 50 - 70 which is way above background. Remember, I'm using these radiation readings to determine how much material there is relative to where it should be in the atmosphere and the isotopes. They are just showing where the more harmful ones are likely to be.


Quoting TampaSpin:


Bananas lay very hard on the tummy before bedtime as they are actually very hard to digest......just sayn....LOL


hmm Ive never experienced that problem before! Maybe its because my digestive system is very resilient and not very sensitive. I haven't gotten a real stomach flue in many years and I can eat live shrimp without getting sick. However I only did this once and I try not to push my limits even though my system doesn't get bothered easy.

Personally I love bananas!
Quoting Jedkins01:


hmm Ive never experienced that problem before! Maybe its because my digestive system is very resilient and not very sensitive. I haven't gotten a real stomach flue in many years and I can eat live shrimp without getting sick. However I only did this once and I try not to push my limits even though my system doesn't get bothered easy.

Personally I love bananas!


I just ate one. Am I going to die?
Quoting alfabob:


First I can assure you that there was a severe nuclear accident, and the fact that IAEA doesn't rate this as a 7 does not mean that it isn't as bad as Chernobyl. No one has offered proof otherwise, and the literature on MOX fuel supports my claim that a fuel/coolant incident occurred at #3; and pictures of it show that all layers of containment were breached. The only reason why local residents are not extremely sick right now is because 95% of it has been blown offshore. So really you are relying on the advice of those who have been shown in multiple occasions to have lied or withheld information.

Second, the paper refers to several types of MOX mixtures. The numbers I had quoted earlier were based upon non-spent, non-reactor grade MOX; this was a best case scenario. So if in fact I am correct about the physiological and situational dependent exposure rates, then something such as Chernobyl would have 4 to 7 times less alpha emitters than reactor 3. The EOC (end of cycle) amounts are higher in the more physiologically important isotopes, as plutonium usually sticks to certain receptors and can be eliminated from the body. Curium and Americium do not behave this way and are therefore much different than any previous situation.

I wish reality was as simple as you are trying to make it, but it's not; and usually all "profession" calculations cannot be solved without differential equations and/or numeric methods.


Hasn't the readings coming into the West Coast higher than what most forecasted. (even tho it still is no danger they say)! Since the findings are higher then was predicted, does it not make since the the radiation released is higher than reported. I would suggest this as a fact?
I'll plot the gross CPM divided by time intervals to find the actual CPM; few minutes...
Quoting WatchingThisOne:


I just ate one. Am I going to die?



Unfortunately you just might, and even if not, there's no counting all of the health issues you will suffer if you do survive. If I were you, I would go move to the West Coast before eating a banana, if you want to make a wise choice.
Quoting Jedkins01:


hmm Ive never experienced that problem before! Maybe its because my digestive system is very resilient and not very sensitive. I haven't gotten a real stomach flue in many years and I can eat live shrimp without getting sick. However I only did this once and I try not to push my limits even though my system doesn't get bothered easy.

Personally I love bananas!


I eat a banana nearly every day. When i played basketball, coach made us all eat a snickers bar and banana before every game. When, i coached youth football i asked all the players eat a banana just before taking the field.
Quoting Jedkins01:



Unfortunately you just might, and even if not, there's no counting all of the health issues you will suffer if you do survive. If I were you, I would go move to the West Coast before eating a banana, if you want to make a wise choice.


Already on the Left Coast :)

Here is a good fact sheet on radiation and human health, with links to fact sheets on some individual radioactive elements. Also a list of references to pursue:

Institute for Energy and Environmental Research

Quoting TampaSpin:


I eat a banana nearly every day. When i played basketball, coach made us all eat a snickers bar and banana before every game. When, i coached youth football i asked all the players eat a banana just before taking the field.


Yeah me too! I always eat a banana before weight lifting or running, that and often an orange or a grape fruit!

Scientists have proven that physical health is very important for intellectual function as well. Ironically, the guys that are only disciplined in their studies but never disciplined in their physical fitness will limit their intellectual function. Likewise those who just focus on the physical and don't ever engage in higher learning and and education will be limited intellectual because their brains are not being "worked out".
I'll have to download the data-sets prior to the 13th to get a baseline tomorrow, I've been up for too long today.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah me too! I always eat a banana before weight lifting or running, that and often an orange or a grape fruit!

Scientists have proven that physical health is very important for intellectual function as well. Ironically, the guys that are only disciplined in their studies but never disciplined in their physical fitness will limit their intellectual function. Likewise those who just focus on the physical and don't ever engage in higher learning and and education will be limited intellectual because their brains are not being "worked out".


Yes, I fondly remember the old newsreels showing Churchill jogging around London. And then there was Einstein with his "take no prisoners" approach to the game of squash.
Tokyo winds out of the NE at 22 mph.
TEPCO announces that electrical connections to reactors no. 3 and 4 have been established. All six reactors now have power.

An unidentified pump is running in reactor 5 on electric power.

So far so good. Now it's time to turn over the engine.

WTO

Edit: apparently both 5 and 6 are hooked up and working, with fuel in spent fuel ponds covered with water and temps falling.
TEPCO - smoke at reactor no. 3, "some" personnel withdrawn from plant.

They are not sure how many. Uh huh.

Edit: smoke reported to be gray
Seems there are one or two things in need of repair. A good current update from:

NY Times

Particularly troublesome comment about "not enough power" to reactor no. 2.

WTO
405. IKE
WatchingThisOne...talking to himself/herself...at 1:30 am to 4:30 am in cyberspace:(
some big shot diplomat said he fears 1000s dead in libya. 100 or so tomahawks can do that
Quoting IKE:
WatchingThisOne...talking to himself/herself...at 1:30 am to 4:30 am in cyberspace:(


Oh good, the day shift has arrived :)
408. IKE

Quoting WatchingThisOne:


Oh good, the day shift has arrived :)
I've done the same thing on here...talking to myself. I ain't staying on here all day. Too much doom and gloom for me.
Quoting IKE:

I've done the same thing on here...talking to myself. I ain't staying on here all day. Too much doom and gloom for me.
Good Morning Ike!
410. IKE
Good morning.
Quoting IKE:
WatchingThisOne...talking to himself/herself...at 1:30 am to 4:30 am in cyberspace:(


we've all been guilty....but I enjoyed reading WTO's updates throughout the night
mournin'
yyuup - lots of doom & gloom

At least, & I am thankful, we do have seemingly better news from Japan
Quoting aquak9:


we've all been guilty....but I enjoyed reading WTO's updates throughout the night
heck I do that here & a whole lotta places : )
414. IKE

Quoting aquak9:


we've all been guilty....but I enjoyed reading WTO's updates throughout the night
Amen to that.
Quoting surfmom:
mournin'
yyuup - lots of doom & gloom

At least, & I am thankful, we do have seemingly better news from Japan


well ... most recent comment from the Reuters blog on the nuclear problem:

""Work to connect power cables to the No. 3 and No. 4 reactors was temporarily halted Monday at the crisis-hit Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, after grayish and blackish smoke was billowing from the building of the No. 3 reactor, the plant operator said." english.kyodonews.jp"

Grayish and blackish seems to infer burning rather than water vapor or steam. Smoke also reported out of number 2.

And the WHO is stating that the food contamination is a much bigger problem than had been expected. It's definitely outside the "zones." Tap water in Tokyo has been found to contain traces of radioactivity.

And with this new burning stuff, we will all be interested in the wind. Currently out of the ENE at 17 mph, but it has been swinging to NNE and even N through the day. It's now around midnight in Tokyo/Honshu.


Edit: It's actually 9 pm in Tokyo.
Great article on WU on NYT this am! Link
Good morning all - IKE, Aqua, Surf. And WTO...I've enjoyed the updates throughout the night. Good coverage.

Despite the overheating in reactor No. 3 that allegedly was billowing the blackish, grayish smoke that prompted an evacuation of some of the workers, radiation levels to my knowledge have not seem to have spiked considerably, even despite the onshore flow now from near the Fukushima Daiichi power plant down to Iwaki down to Tokyo.

Although the plutonium rods have been used in the No. 3 reactor so it remains the most dangerous. Yesterday, there was a pretty rapid spike in the Ibarcki Prefecture. However, level of radiation may spike further inland in response to the onshore winds. Despite the spike yesterday, these levels observed still remain far below what is considered dangerous anywhere further than 25km from the plant in Ibariki Prefecture, with the exception of course with what has been detected to exceed the safety limits within the food.

Nonetheless, here's some good, up-to-the-minute coverage that will keep you abreast of the changes as they happen:

Link
Quoting Guysgal:
Great article on WU on NYT this am! Link


Link doesn't work ... try THIS
Link

Concave bay facing directly into the Tsunami destroyed Rkiuzentaka.
Kyodo: TEPCO says Fukushima No.2 reactor smoke believed to be steam, not from fuel pool.
A banana equivalent dose (BED) is an idea intended to place in scale the dangers of radiation by comparing exposures to the radiation generated by a common banana.
Time flies like an arrow, and fruit flies like a banana...
...which explains where laboratories get all their mutant fruit flies from.

Japan's...government has ordered the...Fukushima, Ibaraki, Tochigi and Gunma prefectures to suspend shipments of spinach and rapeseed after radiation exceeding the regulation limit was detected in some produce. The government also ordered Fukushima prefecture not to sell milk.

For instance, a [kilogram] of spinach grown in the open air near the city of Hitachi, about 60 miles south of the Fukushima power plant, was found to contain 54,000 becquerels of iodine-131. The allowable government limit is 2,000 -- or 27 times lower.
The cesium-137 level in Hitachi spinach was about 2,000 becquerels, four times the safety threshold.

Tohoku was traditionally considered the granary of Japan because it supplied Sendai and the Tokyo-Yokohama market with rice and other farm commodities. Tohoku provided 20 percent of the nation's rice crop.
420. cat5hurricane 12:33 PM GMT on March 21, 2011
Kyodo: TEPCO says Fukushima No.2 reactor smoke believed to be steam, not from fuel pool.

Oh no, not the steam story again!
Is there a trick to making the quote button to work?
Quoting emcf30:
420. cat5hurricane 12:33 PM GMT on March 21, 2011
Kyodo: TEPCO says Fukushima No.2 reactor smoke believed to be steam, not from fuel pool.

Oh no, not the steam story again!

Run!!!
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #26
DEPRESSION TROPICALE, FORMER CHERONO (07-20102011)
16:00 PM RET March 21 2011
==========================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Cherono (997 hPa) located at 23.5S 57.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
Only in the southern semi circle between 60-130 NM from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
=======================
50 NM from the center extending up to 220 NM in southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 24.8S 55.9E - 35 knots (Depression SubTropicale)
24 HRS: 26.3S 56.0E - 35 knots (Depression SubTropicale)
48 HRS: 27.5S 59.1E - 25 knots (Devenant Extratropical)
72 HRS: 28.0S 63.2E - 25 knots (Depression Extratropical)

Additional Information
=====================

Convection is very fluctuating and remains confined in the southern part of the system that is still undergoing a north ot northwesterly wind shear generated by an upper level trough existing very close to the west of the system. Low level circulation center is more or less visible due to blow up of convection occuring since last night. ASCAT swath 0523z confirms the very asymmetric winds structure with stronger winds in the southern semi-circle due to the gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures.

After a regular west southwestward movement, the system should recurve southeastward then eastward within the next 24 hours.

WIthin the next 12 hours, the system should enter the phasis with the approaching upper level trough. Ex-Cherono should evolve in a subtropical structure (CF phasis diagram from GFS). Surface winds will remain strong due to gradient effect in the southern part of the system until Tuesday evening. From Wednesday, system should begin its extratropical transition and beyond dissipate in the south latitudes westerly circulation.

This forecast is based on CEP numerical weather prediction model.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..
Quoting emcf30:
Is there a trick to making the quote button to work?
You have to do it twice, but for some reason it allowed me the first time I clicked. Good Morning everyone:)
Quoting kwgirl:
You have to do it twice, but for some reason it allowed me the first time I clicked. Good Morning everyone:)

Good morning. Yeah, if I use IE (Internet Explorer), I usually have to click it twice. But when I use Firefox which I normally use, one time is usually enough.

Nice forecast for you guys down in KW. Upper 70's all week it looks like. Very dry though, so lots of sun.
For the upper Great Lakes states, Blizzard watches are now up for the nearby Duluth, MN area.

"In a report submitted to Japan's nuclear safety agency on February 28, Japan's largest power utility, Tokyo Electric Power Co, said it had failed to inspect 33 pieces of equipment in the six reactors at the Fukushima Dai-ichi complex.

The equipment missed in scheduled inspections included a motor and a backup power generator for the No. 1 reactor, the firm said in a report available on a company Website...

The agency (Japan's Nuclear Industrial Safety Agency), which has been criticized for its close ties to the industry it regulates, said it had been assured the equipment that had gone without inspection would be tested in the near term by Tokyo Electric..."

LinktoReutersArticle
TokyoElectricPowerCompany "By the way, we haven't made some scheduled safety inspections at FukushimaDaiichi"
Nuclear&IndustrialSafetyAgency "You did? That's cool, bro. Call us back whenever ya get around to it"
Reactor No. 3:



Source: Reuters
Quoting Chicklit:
"In a report submitted to Japan's nuclear safety agency on February 28, Japan's largest power utility, Tokyo Electric Power Co, said it had failed to inspect 33 pieces of equipment in the six reactors at the Fukushima Dai-ichi complex.

The equipment missed in scheduled inspections included a motor and a backup power generator for the No. 1 reactor, the firm said in a report available on a company Website...

The agency (Japan's Nuclear Industrial Safety Agency), which has been criticized for its close ties to the industry it regulates, said it had been assured the equipment that had gone without inspection would be tested in the near term by Tokyo Electric..."

LinktoReutersArticle


These corporations do not care about anything other than profit. It is sad that people may die because of their lack of care.
Good Morning.

Remember to take your radiation readings, away from your new granite countertops and tiles.

I'm glad Honshu is getting some rain.
Wish Florida was too.
Quoting WatchingThisOne:


Link doesn't work ... try THIS


Thanks! What's the trick to getting a live link to post?
Complete Update






Quoting biff4ugo:
Good Morning.

Remember to take your radiation readings, away from your new granite countertops and tiles.

I'm glad Honshu is getting some rain.
Wish Florida was too.
NoOOO granite in my house.
thanks for the inspection information Chicklit, Similar story w/ the oil rigs -sigh- Are we learning anything yet??? off to work I go

I always wonder why people get granite countertops in their homes.
NEW BLOG
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Good morning. Yeah, if I use IE (Internet Explorer), I usually have to click it twice. But when I use Firefox which I normally use, one time is usually enough.

Nice forecast for you guys down in KW. Upper 70's all week it looks like. Very dry though, so lots of sun.
Yes, the weather has been gorgeous here in the Keys. Lots of sun, nice breeze and no rain or high humidity. Which means I have to water my garden maybe twice a week. But as long as it doesn't rain, I might get away with mowing the grass once a month.
Quoting surfmom:
NoOOO granite in my house.
thanks for the inspection information Chicklit, Similar story w/ the oil rigs -sigh- Are we learning anything yet??? off to work I go



Hopefully, we are learning that government regulation on behalf of its citizens' health and safety is a good thing.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Oh I see! thnx a lot