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Winds diminish for Arizona's fire; flooding from 94L kills 23 in Haiti

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:27 PM GMT on June 09, 2011

The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will diminish today, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for more modest afternoon winds of 15 - 20 mph through Saturday. For the first time this week, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has not issued red flag warnings for critical fire conditions in Eastern Arizona, and firefighters should be able to make progress battling the Wallow fire, which is 0% contained. Yesterday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had wind gusts in excess of 30 mph for almost 7 hours, temperatures near 80°F, and humidities as low as 5%. The fire has grown steadily this week--300 square miles on Sunday, 365 square miles on Monday, 484 square miles Tuesday, and 608 square miles on Wednesday. Its current size is about 50% of the size of Rhode Island. The fire is close to beating the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles) as Arizona's largest fire in recorded history. Smoke from the Wallow fire has now blown downwind over 2,000 miles over the Atlantic Ocean, as seen using our wundermap for the U.S. with the Fire layer turned on. Smoke caused "Unhealthy" levels of air pollution (code red on the Air Quality Index) over much of new Mexico Wednesday. A separate fire burning in Southeast Arizona, the 167-square-mile Horseshoe Two fire, is the state's 5th largest fire on record, and is 50% contained. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 3.6 million acres have burned in the U.S. so far this year, the most on record for this early in the year--and more than double the 10-year average from 2001 - 2010 of 1.4 million acres. During May, 1.8 million acres burned, the greatest May fire acreage burned in the 12-year record. Extreme to exceptional drought conditions over most of Texas, New Mexico, and Eastern Arizona are largely responsible for the record fire season.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona's Wallow fire passed over the Washington DC area at a height of 5 - 9 km during the day on Wednesday, June 8, 2011. NASA Goddard's micropulse lidar in Greenbelt, Maryland took a vertical profile of particles in the atmosphere during the day. A lidar (short for LIght Detection And Ranging) is a laser detection system that bounces light waves off of particles in the atmosphere to determine where clouds and elevated pollution layers exist. During the afternoon hours, the lidar also detected large amounts of air pollution particles near the surface (orange colors) after 18 UTC (2pm EDT.) Air quality in the Washington D.C. area during the day on June 8 for particles was Moderate (84 on the Air Quality Index, code yellow), and was Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Air Quality Index of 150) for ozone pollution. The University of Maryland Smog Blog is where I got this image from, and is a good place to get daily discussions of air pollution.


Figure 2. Smoke billows from the rapidly growing Wallow fire in Eastern Arizona in this image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite at 1:25pm MDT June 8, 2011. The actively burning fire front (outlined in red) surrounds a vast area of charred land. High winds propelled the fire, igniting spot fires as much as three miles ahead of the fire front. Image credit: NASA.

Flooding from 94L kills 23 people in Haiti
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week is no more, but at least 23 people are dead and six missing in Haiti due to torrential flooding rains from the disturbance. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. The heaviest rains from the remains of 94L lie just north and west of Haiti, and may be capable of bringing 1 - 3 inches of rain to Haiti, the Bahamas, and eastern Cuba today. The NOGAPS model is suggesting the remains of 94L could reorganize into a strong tropical disturbance this weekend off the coast of South Carolina, but none of the other models are showing this. The NOGAPS model has had a poor track record handling the evolution of the wind shear pattern this week, and I'm not expecting any major regeneration of 94L. Wind shear is very high 30 - 50 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development very unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian.

First hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season forms
Hurricane Adrian is putting on an impressive bout of rapid intensification, and has emerged as the season's first hurricane in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Adrian is in an ideal environment for intensification, with light wind shear and ocean temperatures of 30°C (86°), and will likely become a major hurricane later today. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country, at least for the next three days. June hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific are much more common than in the Atlantic.

NOAA's pre-season prediction of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 16, calls for below average activity, with 12 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 75% of the median. The 1981-2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 - 16 named storms, 8 - 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

Jeff Masters
Smokey Moon 2
Smokey Moon 2
This was later at 1109PM when there was heavier smoke from the Ariz Fires.

Fire

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. pottery
Quoting Grothar:


I thought that was Elba. Who do you think you're playing with, pot. LOL

heheheh
It was too close to let it pass...
Quoting Grothar:


Wow, I never knew that. Interesting article. I am up that way a lot. We have been having a lot of trouble with salt water intrusion. Don't know if I sent the link to you or not. Once the Biscayne Aquifer goes, we are finished. Read it when it's not so late.

Link



I did read that and that is why I dug deeper into ours. The nano-filtration is actually the first of it's kind in the World, I did not know that. Kinda neat out of little ole Jupiter. There was a team from the plant sent to Japan after the earthquake.
1004. pottery
Quoting Grothar:


A man, a plan, a canal, Panama!

Hey! I didnt know that one, you kayak.
Something has to give sooner or later Grother, it has to.
337 FirstCoastMan:
em
Baseball has spring training. Players work on fundamentals, roster spots are firmed up. The games "don't count". Does the same apply to the Atlantic hurricane season?Similar to the baseball season, the hurricane season "heats up" to its peak in the months of August, September and October. June, of course, sits a couple months prior to the peak.


Catching up on posts - loved the anaolgy to spring-trining baseball and June tropical prognostications.
Based upon what I'm seeing with the computer models and with the evolving pattern that may support the NHC thinking with the Caribbean disturbance, as the dominant ridge over the Southeast US slowly moves southeast and out over the SW Atlantic, this will allow the upper level trough currently over the GOM to migrate northwestward and replace the ridge. As this happens, the upper ridge over the Caribbean expands some possibly enveloping the disturbance which would indeed bring marginally favorable upper level winds.

Also based on this pattern, one would believe that given the southeast motion of the ridge and the northwest migration of the trough, it would open a valley for the disturbance to head north to northwest over Florida or just off the Florida East Coast.

This could indeed allow for enhanced rains over the area that very much need it.
1008. Grothar
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



I did read that and that is why I dug deeper into ours. The nano-filtration is actually the first of it's kind in the World, I did not know that. Kinda neat out of little ole Jupiter. There was a team from the plant sent to Japan after the earthquake.


I am going to read up on that. We have to do something here. Wonder why the rest of the state isn't doing something? It could be a whole new industry.
night kman my friend unless i miss ya on the way out
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Something has to give sooner or later Grother, it has to.


The drought will pass. Eventually.
Quoting pottery:

Hey! I didnt know that one, you kayak.


When the storms get closer will shall have

radar sagas
1013. pottery
Quoting Huracaneer:


When the storms get closer will shall have

radar sagas

Very clever!

94l is pouring down on Cuba for hours now...
any reports out of there?
1014. Grothar
Quoting pottery:

Hey! I didnt know that one, you kayak.


I always wanted to send this to Aussie. It is a sentence with the most prepositions.


What did you bring that book that I don't want to be read to from out of about 'Down Under' up for?

See this 50% on the map? It will be 20% this time tomorrow you watch.
1016. Grothar
Cuba must be getting pounded, hasn't moved much.


Link
T.C.F.W.
01E/MH/A/C4
MARK
15.25N/105.5W
The WC-130J Hurricane Hunter
1019. Grothar
Well night shift. It has been nice. They are coming around with the cart so I have to go. See you tomorrow.
XX/INV/94L
1021. pottery
Quoting Grothar:


I always wanted to send this to Aussie. It is a sentence with the most prepositions.


What did you bring that book that I don't want to be read to from out of about 'Down Under' up for?


Goodness me!
That IS good!
My brain is going into fuzzmode.
see ya tomorrow gro have a good sleep
OK, you can tell by my last "quote" that I've still got a bit to learn ...

Only posted a handful of times.:-) As if you couldn't tell.

Been lurking for 7-8 years, been a member since whenever it says down there, and been a paid member even less (but will continue to pay because this fantastic resource needs to continue).

As for me, I've lived near the coast for 20 years, a few hundred miles from the coast (though still close enough to care) for 20 years, and on the coast for 10. (Houston, Austin and Corpus Christi, if you really want to know.) My mom (bless her departed soul) told me about going through Carla with an infant - me. I've been enthralled with tropical systems since then (or, at least, as soon after then as I can remember).

Keep up the great work. And I mean all of it - prognostications, barbs, jokes ... everything.

And if sucked in by a troll, ask them the Monty Python questions.
1024. pottery
Quoting Grothar:
Well night shift. It has been nice. They are coming around with the cart so I have to go. See you tomorrow.

Sweet Dreams...
1025. Grothar
A quicky before I go. Just came in. Nite.

Quoting Grothar:
Well night shift. It has been nice. They are coming around with the cart so I have to go. See you tomorrow.


See ya.
Quoting Grothar:
Cuba must be getting pounded, hasn't moved much.


Link


That needs to come to South Florida very soon!
Quoting nopepper:
OK, you can tell by my last "quote" that I've still got a bit to learn ...

Only posted a handful of times.:-) As if you couldn't tell.

Been lurking for 7-8 years, been a member since whenever it says down there, and been a paid member even less (but will continue to pay because this fantastic resource needs to continue).

As for me, I've lived near the coast for 20 years, a few hundred miles from the coast (though still close enough to care) for 20 years, and on the coast for 10. (Houston, Austin and Corpus Christi, if you really want to know.) My mom (bless her departed soul) told me about going through Carla with an infant - me. I've been enthralled with tropical systems since then (or, at least, as soon after then as I can remember).

Keep up the great work. And I mean all of it - prognostications, barbs, jokes ... everything.

And if sucked in by a troll, ask them the Monty Python questions.


Good to see you on this blog.
big t.storm at my house today
Quoting centex:
It would seem that change from unfavorable to marginal upper winds in very disorganized system does not warrant 20% chance. They must be factoring in something esle.
favorable location for this time of yr?
ha ha doesn't 94L remind you guys for a storm that just won't die remeber
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTERACTING WITH A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA... THE
FLORIDA STRAITS...AND MOST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE AREA OF LOWEST
PRESSURE IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF GRAND CAYMAN AND THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR...BUT MAY BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
What?!?!
Levi - You still around? If so, then what do you think about my analysis regarding the situation with Invest 94L?
1034. flsky
Monty Python questions - perfect!

Quoting nopepper:
OK, you can tell by my last "quote" that I've still got a bit to learn ...

Only posted a handful of times.:-) As if you couldn't tell.

Been lurking for 7-8 years, been a member since whenever it says down there, and been a paid member even less (but will continue to pay because this fantastic resource needs to continue).

As for me, I've lived near the coast for 20 years, a few hundred miles from the coast (though still close enough to care) for 20 years, and on the coast for 10. (Houston, Austin and Corpus Christi, if you really want to know.) My mom (bless her departed soul) told me about going through Carla with an infant - me. I've been enthralled with tropical systems since then (or, at least, as soon after then as I can remember).

Keep up the great work. And I mean all of it - prognostications, barbs, jokes ... everything.

And if sucked in by a troll, ask them the Monty Python questions.
1035. alfabob
To me this indicates that the season is going to get active quickly, unlike 2010 when everything happened within a relatively short time-frame. I'm thinking the perfect analog is a hybrid of 2005/2010, both in terms of tracking and activity.

Quoting Grothar:
A quicky before I go. Just came in. Nite.



Night Gro.

Oh BAMS model, please be right!
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Levi - You still around? If so, then what do you think about my analysis regarding the situation with Invest 94L?


I'll chime in. I actually finished looking at the data (writing a blog entry) myself, and I tend to agree with your assessment. You can already see the upper low retrograding a bit northwestward on water vapor imagery. Also, the synoptic pattern doesn't really look all that favorable to retrograde the western Atlantic ridge too far east, which in combination with the retrograding upper low will allow the system to find itself in a lower shear environment. However, this environment still appears to me to be just a little too prohibitive for significant development, even with the system moving parallel to the upper flow after 24-36 hours.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'll chime in. I actually finished looking at the data (writing a blog entry) myself, and I tend to agree with your assessment. You can already see the upper low retrograding a bit northwestward on water vapor imagery. Also, the synoptic pattern doesn't really look all that favorable to retrograde the western Atlantic ridge too far east, which in combination with the retrograding upper low will allow the system to find itself in a lower shear environment. However, this environment still appears to me to be just a little too prohibitive for significant development, even with the system moving parallel to the upper flow after 24-36 hours.


Pretty much in agreement then. I'm thinking rain chances will increase more than the current NWS forecast scheme for South Florida. I'm still expecting significant rains from this system for South Florida.
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Pretty much in agreement then. I'm thinking rain chances will increase more than the current NWS forecast scheme for South Florida. I'm still expecting significant rains from this system for South Florida.


It depends on how you define "significant". Currently, the GFS keeps the upper tropospheric flow nearly uniformly southwesterly, which will tend to keep much of the associated convection downwind of the center. The southern and southeastern peninsula may receive an inch or two, but I don't foresee anymore beyond that, and areas to the west probably won't receive any at all.

We shall see, of course. I agree with you on everything except the rain chances.
1040. alfabob
When I was looking at 94L yesterday/ few days ago, some models were showing an anti-cyclone forming with a weak system; moving with the ULL N/NE. Also said that it might come back because it was headed towards Cuba/Jamaica where the winds were converging, but it seems like shear is still too high. If you look to the SE, there are 200mb winds wrapping back around which are going to push the ULL NE; so this is likely what the models were hinting at earlier. After that shear should drop in the region as the ULL is the main source as of right now.


1041. Relix
Nice wave in the Central Atlantic.
1042. 7544
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Pretty much in agreement then. I'm thinking rain chances will increase more than the current NWS forecast scheme for South Florida. I'm still expecting significant rains from this system for South Florida.


ill agree with you if 94 can build on the west side that would mean xtra rain for so fla also if 94l has a good dmax tonight things can change fast still has some tricks to play out stay tuned and thanks cchs ill be watching tonight
The center of 94L hasn't moved an inch the past 7 hours looking at the IR2
1044. 7544
Quoting caneswatch:


Night Gro.

Oh BAMS model, please be right!


check gap is closing Link
ULAC is ballooning in the Caribbean.

Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #5
TROPICAL STORM DODONG (SARIKA)
11:00 AM PhST June 10 2011
=====================================

DODONG is now outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and continues to move away from the country.

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Dodong located at 19.6°N 117.3°E or 330 km northwest of Laoag City has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gustiness up to 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 12 knots.

Additional Information
=====================
TS "Dodong" is expected to enhance the Southwest monsoon and will bring rains over the western section of Northern and Central Luzon.

With this development, this is the final bulletin on this weather disturbance.
I can't believe 94L came back. If 94L can survive that sw shear now then I'm not gonna' turn my back on it until it's 1500 miles away.
Does any one have a status on the Fort Calhoun Reactor Plant, caught this image yesterday where the flooding from the Missouri river looks to be at the front door. been told the officials say the river won't come through the front door because they won't let it, (Really? omg!)
1050. JLPR2
Adrian is a neat little ball.
1051. alfabob
1052. alfabob
I think the full eye is about to show-up, compare page 10 of this (j) with what it looks like now.
Quoting houston144:
Does any one have a status on the Fort Calhoun Reactor Plant, caught this image yesterday where the flooding from the Missouri river looks to be at the front door. been told the officials say the river won't come through the front door because they won't let it, (Really? omg!)



A fire in an electrical switch room on Tuesday briefly knocked out cooling for a pool holding spent nuclear fuel at the Fort Calhoun nuclear plant outside Omaha, Neb., plant officials said.
I'd doubt there will be fatalities associated with adrian....on the beach.
1055. Walshy
Quoting Vincent4989:
I'd doubt there will be fatalities associated with adrian....on the beach.


Disagree. People die in rip currents off of North Carolina from a fish storm hundreds of miles away every hurricane season.

Quoting Skyepony:



A fire in an electrical switch room on Tuesday briefly knocked out cooling for a pool holding spent nuclear fuel at the Fort Calhoun nuclear plant outside Omaha, Neb., plant officials said.


Thanks Skyepony, I just picked this out also :"On June 6, 2011 the Omaha Public Power District, as required by Nuclear Regulatory Commission guidelines, declared a level 1 "Notification of Unusual Event" (minimal level incident on a 1-4 scale) due to flooding of the Missouri River.[7] The Missouri River is above flood stage and is expected to rise further and remain above flood stage for several weeks to a month. Contractors have been busy installing sandbags and earthen berms to protect the facility from flooding.": the good news is it is in a refueling shut down currently but there is no exact location of the storage pools of the spent fuel that is stored...this could get messy maybe?
Quoting Walshy:


Disagree. People die in rip currents off of North Carolina from a fish storm miles away.


But what if beaches were closed due to an advisory?
Also there are 10-20% chances of Adrian being a CAT-5, in my opinion.
I forgot also this:
Solar Weather for Today:
1058. Walshy
Quoting Vincent4989:

But what if beaches were closed due to an advisory?


But what if someone wanted to surf anyway?

Quoting Walshy:


But what if someone wanted to surf anyway?


And then you're right.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL STORM SARIKA (T1103)
15:00 PM JST June 10 2011
==============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Sarika (996 hPa) located at 20.1N 117.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 15 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 24.1N 116.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 26.4N 118.1E - Tropical Depression

Additional Information
=======================

Tropical Storm will move at the same speed for the next 24 hours then decelerate

Tropical Storm will move north for the next 24 hours then move north northeast

Tropical Storm will keep present intensity for next 24 hours

Final Initial Dvorak Number will be T2.5 after 24 hours
1061. Walshy
GFS
"Parts of England are officially in a drought following the dry spring, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) has said.

Areas of East Anglia are in drought, with parts of the south-west and south-east of England, the Midlands and Wales in a "near-drought" state.

In the drought-affected areas, Anglian Water and Cambridge Water say there is no threat to public water supplies.

But Severn Trent Water says there may be restrictions if rainfall stays low."

Link

Some of that should be alleviated over the weekend with a broad, wet low coming in from the Atlantic.

Adrian's quite a pretty hurricane - it really did sort itself out in a fairly short space of time. Strongest hurricane this early in EPac since Adolph in 2001.
1063. Hugo7
looks like most models still have adrian desipating and going north toward gulf of cali still. Could make cat 5 before currents start to change it's course.


Nice looking eye.
973 cctxshirl "wow, in my opinion, Adrian is impressive. I still haven't heard from my boss but I'm assuming he's okay. He's in Manzanillo, Mexico."

Considering that your boss went with a professional surfer, he's probably stoked about being able to catch some big rides on Adrian's storm waves.
I think the cause of the future fate of 94L if it doesn't develop will be cold waters.
Quotes from Wiki:
The Fort Calhoun Nuclear Generating Station is a..Combustion Engineering pressurized water reactor generating 500 megawatts of electricity. This is currently the smallest rated capacity among all operating commercial power reactors in North America.
[After 30years of operation] In 2003, the plant had its operating license renewed for an additional twenty years, expiring in 2033
A rubber stamp process under which the owner-operator OmahaPublicPowerDistrict didn't even have to prove that the generating plant continued to meet the operating standards set for its commissioning in 1973. Which it obviously didn't because
The plant underwent refurbishment in 2006 by having its steam generators, pressurizer, reactor vessel head, low pressure turbines and main transformer replaced.
After 37years of operating without adequate flood protection,
A flood assessment performed by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission in 2010 indicated that the Fort Calhoun Nuclear Generating Station, "did not have adequate procedures to protect the intake structure and auxiliary building against external flooding events." The assessment also indicated that the facility was not adequately prepared for a "worst-case" flooding scenario.
A number of potential flood water penetration points were discovered that could have impacted the raw feed water supply to the cooling system, the auxilliary water supply and main switchgear (electrical) room. By early 2011, corrective measures had been implemented.
Which were obviously inadequate because
On June 6, 2011 the Omaha Public Power District, as required by Nuclear Regulatory Commission guidelines, declared a level 1 "Notification of Unusual Event" (minimal level incident on a 1-4 scale) due to flooding of the Missouri River. The Missouri River is above flood stage and is expected to rise further and remain above flood stage for several weeks to a month. Contractors have been busy installing sandbags and earthen berms to protect the facility from flooding.
Otherwise adding those sandbags would be mostly unnecessary, except maybe at the entry gates. For which the NRC is at least partially to blame since it failed to provide an adequate standard for flood protection.
On June 7, 2011, an electrical component in a switcher room caused a small fire with poisonous gases and Halon extinguisher activation which forced a partial evacuation. The fire was no longer active when the fire brigade arrived and according to officials, the public was never in any danger, however in response, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission declared an alert, which is a level 2 incident. The fire impacted a pump which is used to recirculate coolant water through the spent fuel pool. The pump was offline for an hour but backup equipment wasn't needed as estimated time to boiling temperature was 88,3 hours. The evacuation was the first at the facility since 1992, when 20,000 US gallons (76,000 l; 17,000 imp gal) of coolant leaked into a containment building from the reactor.
Now consider a scenario in which involvement by the fire brigade were necessary, and the roadways into the nuclear generating station were flooded over...

That's three nuclear power stations with three minor peripheral involvements in three major events -- the Tuscaloosa tornado, the Joplin tornado, and the Missouri near-flood-stage waters -- that have had NRC-reportable Incidents. From which one can surmise that the operators were unprepared for true disaster*situations, that both they and the NRC do not take safety seriously.
And that the NRC and the nuclear industry that they are supposed to regulate have a bit too cozy a relationship.

I mean, what is so onerous about requiring that a nuclear powerplant meet commissioning standards in order to be recertified for extended operations?
Or that they be located above flood height?
Or that emergency equipment&supplies for nuclear powerplants located in TornadoAlley be stored in tornado-proof shelters, insteada in sheds that'll blow down at the approach of a tornado?

* Such as actually getting hit by a tornado or flood.
Xianning was battered by rain and floods from 8 pm Thursday to 5 am Friday.

In Tongcheng county, precipitation topped 300 mm within four hours, a record volume.

The entire county was virtually submerged by Friday morning, with more than 60,000 residents left stranded. Fifty-thousand of them were evacuated by 8 am Friday.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2011yangtzedro ught/2011-06/10/content_12673844.htm
1069. IKE
I see 94L is temporarily back. Isn't it amazing that Florida is going to
miss out on the rain that they desperately need? If it weren't needed
so badly it might be funny....



1070. aquak9
Good morning, good day, wherever on the planet you might be.

Sun's not up yet, but as soon as it shows, I'll slingshot it on to the rest of you.

Woke in a good mood- hey will someone post the five day QPF so I can be my normal depressed self please?
Quoting aquak9:
Good morning, good day, wherever on the planet you might be.

Sun's not up yet, but as soon as it shows, I'll slingshot it on to the rest of you.

Woke in a good mood- hey will someone post the five day QPF so I can be my normal depressed self please?


Is it this?



Morning Aqua, Ike.
1072. aquak9
Hi Cotillion. If nothing else, the colors are pretty.

we need some rain
in the southeast
pkease just not
a Cat3 beast

We need so much
for many days
to soak our soil
and clear the haze

Please make the rain
fall long and slow
so we can thrive
and life may grow

And so I beg
to anyone
we need some inches
and not just one.
central cuba is getting pounded with heavy rain these low level troughs can produced incredible amounts of precip. if stationary they have produced even more rain than hurricanes over 100 inches
While we complain, the silent among us suffer also.

Excerpt:


At the north end of the sprawling Everglades system, endangered snail kites are abandoning nests from the Kissimmee River basin down to Lake Okeechobee. Marshes in the heart of the Everglades are burning or shriveling into cracked mud.

On the east coast, oysters are dying as sea water pushes deeper into the brackish St. Lucie River estuary. On the west, explosions of toxic algae are killing fish and triggering public health warnings in the Caloosahatchee River. At the south end of the Glades, stretches of coastal Florida Bay mangroves have dipped into unhealthy hyper-salinity.



Link
1075. MahFL
Quoting aspectre:
973 cctxshirl "wow, in my opinion, Adrian is impressive. I still haven't heard from my boss but I'm assuming he's okay. He's in Manzanillo, Mexico."

Considering that your boss went with a professional surfer, he's probably stoked about being able to catch some big rides on Adrian's storm waves.


Pro surfers die as well as no pros.
1076. aquak9
Quoting MahFL:


Pro surfers die as well as no pros.

and a cheerful good-morning to you, too, MAH.
1077. IKE
I went down to my dock yesterday....I live on lakefront property. I have never seen the water level that low. About a third of my dock is no longer in water:(


Quoting MahFL:


Pro surfers die as well as no pros.
not many die though cars are dangerous too off topic but i dont know one surfer who has died but i know three separate incidents that friends died from motorcycle wrecks danm alarm clock http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wWJbFtIxS7g
1079. MahFL
Oh yesterday a neibours unkempt rear yard's grass caught fire, I am not sure what the cause was, but it's dry as a bone in Orange Park, FL.
I do not think much of anybody predicted Adrian would reach this strength. But it appears that he has peaked at 140 mph/946 mb. If not, he'll increase about 5 mph and that's his limit.

SAL isn't nearly as high as it was this time last year.

1082. IKE
Since April 6th I've had 1.53 inches of rain.
Well, by being termed 'annular', it's already implicit that Adrian has more or less hit his ceiling as a storm is believed to have to be 85% or greater of its MPI.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
SAL isn't nearly as high as it was this time last year.



Normally, June and July are the months that have plenty of Sal spreading thru the Atlantic.But this year so far is less than average.
Quoting IKE:
Since April 6th I've had 1.53 inches of rain.


Since April 6th, I've had 1.40" :(
We need rain

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Normally, June and July are the months that have plenty of Sal spreading thru the Atlantic.But this year so far is less than average.


Yeah, and Africa has been really active. Typically, years like this one do not experience many Cape Verde storms, I think this season may be an exception though.
1087. IKE
How convenient....you can probably see the clouds, looking east....from the east coast of Florida....


Was 94L reactivated?
Miami NWS Discussion

ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A FEW MODELS (PARTICULARLY THE GFS) DEVELOP A
SECOND SFC LOW OVER THE NRN BAHAMAS AND CONNECT THE TWO LOWS WITH
A LOW LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH SHOULD THEN MOVE NORTH ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND
THE BAHAMAS ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
1092. IKE

Quoting largeeyes:
Was 94L reactivated?
Yes.
1093. IKE

What do you notice?

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Since April 6th, I've had 1.40" :(
We need rain


I never thought I would say this but I would give up golf for the next 3 Saturdays in a row for a steady rain each day here in West Palm Beach.
1096. hydrus
Quoting IKE:
I see 94L is temporarily back. Isn't it amazing that Florida is going to
miss out on the rain that they desperately need? If it weren't needed
so badly it might be funny....



It is a bummer..
1097. pottery
Quoting Hurrykane:
What do you notice?


Adrian has a Sister?
1098. emcf30
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
SAL isn't nearly as high as it was this time last year.


Excerpt from Crown Weather

Finally, I wanted to point out some very interesting and thought provoking ideas that the National Weather Service in San Juan, Puerto Rico wrote in their Wednesday afternoon discussion about the tropical waves over the eastern Atlantic, various model guidance scenarios and the role of the lack of Saharan Dust may play later on in this hurricane season. Even though today is Friday, their analysis still applies:

“LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE A NICE DEPICTION OF AN AFRICAN EASTERLY WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WIND SURGE PASSING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEXT THU JUN 16. THIS SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 10N AND 20W. WEAKENING MJO/NEGATIVE 200 MB VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES ACROSS THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE AND TIME OF THE YEAR DO NOT FAVOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. ONE INTERESTING NOTE IS LACK OF SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND WESTERN AFRICA AT THIS TIME WHICH TYPICALLY TENDS TO DOMINATE THIS AREA DURING THE MONTH OF JUNE. NESDIS BLENDED TROPICAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH A HIGHER WATER VAPOR CONTENT THAN NORMAL PERHAPS A HARBINGER OF THINGS TO COME LATER THIS HURRICANE SEASON.”

My take on this is that it is not out of the question that we may see a much earlier than normal Cape Verde hurricane season, much like 2008 and 1996 and it is not out of the question that we may be dealing with a July Cape Verde hurricane if these conditions across Africa continues.
1099. IKE

Quoting hydrus:
It is a bummer..

But...but...the rainy season will be starting next week for Florida:(


1100. 7544
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Miami NWS Discussion

ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A FEW MODELS (PARTICULARLY THE GFS) DEVELOP A
SECOND SFC LOW OVER THE NRN BAHAMAS AND CONNECT THE TWO LOWS WITH
A LOW LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH SHOULD THEN MOVE NORTH ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.


wait so 94l will meet up with another low in the bahamas and this will bring rain to so fla does that mean when they meet they will move wnw from the bahamas trying to fiqure this one while all the conv.is still moving east lol tia
Thursday, June 9, 2011 INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING

Report: Egyptian reactor leaked radioactive liquid
CAIRO — Egypt's nuclear reactor has been struck by a radioactive leak.

Egypt's new military regime has been told of a leak at the Anshas nuclear reactor. Anshas, located on the outskirts of Cairo, was said to have emitted at least 10 cubic meters of radioactive liquid.
"The fact that the reactor was by mere chance not operated the next day saved the area from environmental disaster," the note to the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces read...

Link
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I do not think much of anybody predicted Adrian would reach this strength. But it appears that he has peaked at 140 mph/946 mb. If not, he'll increase about 5 mph and that's his limit.


I'd have to agree. He's a healthy storm all around, but I think this is his limit.


Pin...wheel...annularity!
Rain, rain come and stay,
Don't leave for twenty days.

Florida needs your soaking wet kiss,
so please return us to a State of bliss!
1105. IKE

Quoting 7544:


wait so 94l will meet up with another low in the bahamas and this will bring rain to so fla does that mean when they meet they will move wnw from the bahamas trying to fiqure this one while all the conv.is still moving east lol tia
94L looks to be moving NNE to me. Wish it was moving WNW.
Quoting alfabob:
I think the full eye is about to show-up, compare page 10 of this (j) with what it looks like now.

It would appear to me that the large area of drier area surrounding him on all outer quadrants rather hindered his ability to draw in more moisture to not only increase in strength but also in sheer size. I have not yet viewed the latest SHIPS RH levels for 500-750mb, but judging by the water vapor imagery, his mid-level airmass around him could have been his only detriment.
1107. FLdewey
Quoting IKE:


But...but...the rainy season will be starting next week for Florida:(


Or the week after that...
The Miami NWS thinks our rainy season should be starting:

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BOTH LOWS AND TROUGH BECOME
DIFFUSE AS THEY MOVE NORTH WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
LIGHT SOUTHWEST. GFS STILL INDICATES A LONG WAVE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS ERN U.S. KEEPING SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER A WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AT LEAST MODERATE UPPER LVL DIVERGENCE.
DIURNAL HEATING AND LAKE/SEA BREEZES CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO
INITIATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WHICH WILL THEN BE STEERED EASTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN INTERIOR AND THE EAST COAST.
1109. Grothar
If you look to to SE of Adrian you can see a large cluster of storms beginning to form. Last night is was just a small swirl with little convection. As many know, it is not unusual for the storms for rapidly one after the other. This feature will be intgeresting to watch over the next few days.

awww...a baby blob!
Quoting pottery:

Adrian has a Sister?


lol!
If you look over at Africa, you'll notice the monsoon trough goes abruptly north, over the western Sahel area.

Look south of there...notice the wind barb? It is out of the south. Normally, it should be out of the NE (NE Trades) Both these conditions are in response to the cooling in the Gulf of Guinea...this is why we are not seeing any SAL.

Back to 10%

1113. pottery
Quoting Grothar:
If you look to to SE of Adrian you can see a large cluster of storms beginning to form. Last night is was just a small swirl with little convection. As many know, it is not unusual for the storms for rapidly one after the other. This feature will be intgeresting to watch over the next few days.


How Sweet!
Adrian has a Baby Sister...
What's the DOOMCON level right now?
1114. emcf30
Geoffery
Melbourne is thinking the same thing. Hope to pans out
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

TUE-THU...MID/UPR TROUGH WL BE WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN CONUS/
WRN ATLC THROUGH MID WEEK AS SFC FRONTAL TROUGH SAGS INTO CTRL FL
AND BCMS DIFFUSE. LOW LVL RIDGE WL BE DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF FL
AS DEEP LYR FLOW WL PRIMARILY BE OUT OF THE W-SW. THIS WILL FAVOR
THE INTR AND EAST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION.
HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE (30) THROUGH THE XTD RANGE
BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEE NUMBERS CREEP A LTL HIGHER
ONCE WE GET A FEW DAYS INTO THE PATTERN CHANGE.
1115. pottery
Quoting Hurrykane:


lol!
If you look over at Africa, you'll notice the monsoon trough goes abruptly north, over the western Sahel area.

Look south of there...notice the wind barb? It is out of the south. Normally, it should be out of the NE (NE Trades) Both these conditions are in response to the cooling in the Gulf of Guinea...this is why we are not seeing any SAL.


Good spotting!
I saw the zig in the ITCZ and thought 'hmmmm?' but I did not notice the barb.

Curiouser and curiouser....
now where's my Hookah!
Quoting largeeyes:
Back to 10%


GIS data: .shp

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND
THE BAHAMAS ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.







plzs see post 1091
and i think some of us no that
1118. DDR
Good morning
Can someone tell me if the NOGAPS model is still operation or can you post a link TIA.
1119. Grothar
Go west young lady!

Morn'n all. The muggy snuck back onto the beach this morning. After an entire 36 hour break, it's back to 80 degrees and 80% humidity at 8AM...ugh
Quoting Hurrykane:


lol!
If you look over at Africa, you'll notice the monsoon trough goes abruptly north, over the western Sahel area.

Look south of there...notice the wind barb? It is out of the south. Normally, it should be out of the NE (NE Trades) Both these conditions are in response to the cooling in the Gulf of Guinea...this is why we are not seeing any SAL.



That is why the Gulf of Guinea plays a key roll on how active or not the CV season may be. Our friend Levi has talked a lot about this and I am sure,he will have something to say soon about the dramatic cooling of that area.
it seems 94 isnt strong enough to pull all the moisture out of the nw carib. seems to be leaving alot behind
1123. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
The Miami NWS thinks our rainy season should be starting:

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BOTH LOWS AND TROUGH BECOME
DIFFUSE AS THEY MOVE NORTH WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
LIGHT SOUTHWEST. GFS STILL INDICATES A LONG WAVE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS ERN U.S. KEEPING SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER A WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AT LEAST MODERATE UPPER LVL DIVERGENCE.
DIURNAL HEATING AND LAKE/SEA BREEZES CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO
INITIATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WHICH WILL THEN BE STEERED EASTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN INTERIOR AND THE EAST COAST.


You think we might get any this week? It is getting desperate.
1125. Grothar
Quoting pottery:

How Sweet!
Adrian has a Baby Sister...
What's the DOOMCON level right now?


1.5
1126. hydrus
Quoting IKE:


But...but...the rainy season will be starting next week for Florida:(


But, but, it sounded like they said it would be the backward pattern. So not much rain for us here in S.W.Florida..GFS and CMC Linkdoes not show much either.
1127. IKE

Quoting FLdewey:


Or the week after that...
lol.
1128. pottery
Quoting Grothar:


You think we might get any this week? It is getting desperate.

You have no idea....

Link

Lurk most of the time, but thought this would be an interesting discussion.
1130. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:
Go west young lady!

If a pattern like this were to set up, it might be interesting....
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
The Miami NWS thinks our rainy season should be starting:

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BOTH LOWS AND TROUGH BECOME
DIFFUSE AS THEY MOVE NORTH WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
LIGHT SOUTHWEST. GFS STILL INDICATES A LONG WAVE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS ERN U.S. KEEPING SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER A WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AT LEAST MODERATE UPPER LVL DIVERGENCE.
DIURNAL HEATING AND LAKE/SEA BREEZES CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO
INITIATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WHICH WILL THEN BE STEERED EASTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN INTERIOR AND THE EAST COAST.


You see this? Florida's rainy season will arrive, a bit tardy, but here nonetheless. We don't need a tropical deluge to make up for the lack of H2O.
1132. Grothar
Early statistical models. Dynamic ones coming soon to a theater near you.

1133. IKE

1135. hydrus
Quoting pottery:

You have no idea....
NO RAIN ! We are thirsty, send huge amounts of South American wine immediately..
1136. Grothar
Quoting DestinJeff:
guten Morgen, mein Damen und Herren!

RELEASE THE HOUNDS!


Guten Morgen. The morning shift is up early. At least we have something to watch.
1137. hydrus
Quoting DestinJeff:


DOOM:CON is "Level Green: This round is on me!"

Remember, the Boys on the Board over at DOOM:CON are extremely conservative in raising the DOOM:CON level. It's in their bylaws. They don't want to cause mass-hysteria by elevating such a widely-monitored public emergency alert system.

you can get real-time DOOM:CON updates by following them on Twitter @doom:con and by liking them on facebook/doomcon
Quoting Grothar:


You think we might get any this week? It is getting desperate.


Like I always write..."I hope so, but I'm not holding my breath." Let's see what today's updates read.
1139. pottery
Quoting DestinJeff:


DOOM:CON is "Level Green: This round is on me!"

Remember, the Boys on the Board over at DOOM:CON are extremely conservative in raising the DOOM:CON level. It's in their bylaws. They don't want to cause mass-hysteria by elevating such a widely-monitored public emergency alert system.

you can get real-time DOOM:CON updates by following them on Twitter @doom:con and by liking them on facebook/doomcon

Shucks.
I could use a little mass hysteria.

Cant help feeling that the Atlantic will provide some soon.
1141. hydrus
Uh oh...
1143. IKE

Quoting hookedontropics:

Link

Lurk most of the time, but thought this would be an interesting discussion.


"The sky fell to the ground" the broadcaster said.
Interesting phenomena related to what happens when it's so dry the rain cannot fall to the ground.
1145. pottery
Quoting hydrus:
NO RAIN ! We are thirsty, send huge amounts of South American wine immediately..

No Prob.
Just checking each bottle for Quality of Contents first.
This may take a while...
1146. hydrus
Low pressure in the extreme S.W.Caribbean in 60 hours. Conditions might be less hostile this time around.
1148. hydrus
Quoting pottery:

No Prob.
Just checking each bottle for Quality of Contents first.
This may take a while...
Skip the quality junk and send the grape juice...I will do the quality checks myself. Remember , I am an expert...:)
1149. Grothar
Quoting DestinJeff:


This is an example of the kind of learning that happens on the blog.

In my case I never knew of the Gulf of Guinea, much less its impact on CV storms, etc related to hurricane season.

The learning wasn't spelled out: here is something to learn. But rather, simply by reading comments made here. Thank you for that.


Here is a link for you. They have always monitored the Gulf of Guinea for their long-term predictions. It is not mentioned much though. It is long, but you can see the correlation between warm and cool periods the the activity which is associated with it.

Link
Pressure is up just a bit, but winds are hanging in there:

EP, 01, 2011061012, , BEST, 0, 152N, 1072W, 120, 948, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 25, 20, 25, 1008, 180, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ADRIAN, D,
1151. pottery
Quoting DestinJeff:


This is an example of the kind of learning that happens on the blog.

In my case I never knew of the Gulf of Guinea, much less its impact on CV storms, etc related to hurricane season.

The learning wasn't spelled out: here is something to learn. But rather, simply by reading comments made here. Thank you for that.

Yes. That's true.
Pieces of the puzzle keep falling into place.
Wisdom, Knowledge and Good Sense. All in one place.
Unusual.
Nice.
1152. hydrus
Quoting Neapolitan:
Pressure is up just a bit, but winds are hanging in there:

EP, 01, 2011061012, , BEST, 0, 152N, 1072W, 120, 948, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 25, 20, 25, 1008, 180, 20, 0, 0,
If that high pressure would build or shift a tiny bit, we could get some of that rain in S.W.Florida.
Quoting DestinJeff:



don't forget, June is not a climatologically favored month for DOOM.

(I was going to post The Chart with Homer teaching, but I see hydrus already threw it up, so I will refrain)

Homer! Homer! Homer!
LinkSchool'sOut!
Quoting Hurrykane:


lol!
If you look over at Africa, you'll notice the monsoon trough goes abruptly north, over the western Sahel area.

Look south of there...notice the wind barb? It is out of the south. Normally, it should be out of the NE (NE Trades) Both these conditions are in response to the cooling in the Gulf of Guinea...this is why we are not seeing any SAL.



Which inturn creates mosture further north, Which in turn creates stronger waves coming off of the coast, pretty close?
1155. Grothar
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


That is why the Gulf of Guinea plays a key roll on how active or not the CV season may be. Our friend Levi has talked a lot about this and I am sure,he will have something to say soon about the dramatic cooling of that area.


Good observation there. I don't know if you have this link about the Gulf of Guinea. It is one of the primary tools in long-range seasonal forecasting. It has been used for a very long tim. As a matter of fact, way before satellites and radar, these waters were monitored by ships, because they knew of their importance. If you haven't seen the charts, you might find them of some interest.

Link
1156. Grothar
Quoting Chicklit:


"The sky fell to the ground" the broadcaster said.
Interesting phenomena related to what happens when it's so dry the rain cannot fall to the ground.


Maybe Chicken Little was on to something.
1157. pottery
Quoting Grothar:


Good observation there. I don't know if you have this link about the Gulf of Guinea. It is one of the primary tools in long-range seasonal forecasting. It has been used for a very long tim. As a matter of fact, way before satellites and radar, these waters were monitored by ships, because they knew of their importance. If you haven't seen the charts, you might find them of some interest.

Link

Yeah, well I for one was not aware of that set of records...
Thanks!

Going to need to study that.
But these bottles keep getting in the way... hang in there Hydrus.
1159. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:
Thanks for the link Grothar.

Has rainy season started in Florida yet?

How about now?
According to someone on the blog it started 5 weeks ago.
1160. Grothar
Quoting hydrus:
Low pressure in the extreme S.W.Caribbean in 60 hours. Conditions might be less hostile this time around.


Glad you are back in SF, but sorry to hear the reason. I hope we both coasts get wet this week.
Can anyone recommend a good hurricane tracking app for my iPod Touch. I did a search on itunes and there are several. I figured as informed as you all are on hurricanes, someone would know which to get. Thanks in advance for your help.
BTW, although, I've only been registered for a couple of weeks. I already feel I know some of you as I've been lurking for a couple of years. Particularly during hurricane season.
Quoting Grothar:


Good observation there. I don't know if you have this link about the Gulf of Guinea. It is one of the primary tools in long-range seasonal forecasting. It has been used for a very long tim. As a matter of fact, way before satellites and radar, these waters were monitored by ships, because they knew of their importance. If you haven't seen the charts, you might find them of some interest.

Link


I say instead of some, very interesting how the stats vary from warm Gulf of Guinea to cool Gulf of Guinea.Thank you for the link.

Agree with others that this kind of discussion is very helpful for those who haven't heard about the Gulf of Guinea factor and how it works.
Quoting IKE:
According to someone on the blog it started 5 weeks ago.



I got about 20 or so drops on my windshield on the way home from work yesterday. It's safe to say, the rainy season has officially begun!

Enjoy!
1165. aquak9
No duck! No pond!

No Rainy Season!
we got 34 dropin in N. Miami yesterday, so we got you beat Bob....
Quoting weaverwxman:
we got 34 dropin in N. Miami yesterday, so we got you beat Bob....


See? It's happening everywhere!
We got 3 inches plus here in central KS yesterday. You want me to send you some!?
1169. Grothar
I am just posting this for the general blog. It is the illustrated analysis for the 2011 Hurricane season that came out last week. It is a summary of the data compiled by Drs. Gray and Klotzenbach. It gives a nice detailed explanation of how they arrive at their predictions. It will really answer a few questions we all have

Link
There is the cool Gulf of Guinea.



Good morning my weather geek friends,

it is so sad to see all that rain just off to the east of SE Florida and we need it so badly..

I see 94L is back up so maybe something will spin up from it this time..
but to my eyes looks like all the stormy weather is off to the NE of the center?
is that what is going on here??


Will be lurking as i can from work.
You all enjoy your Friday.

1172. aquak9
Quoting SirOutlaw2010:
We got 3 inches plus here in central KS yesterday. You want me to send you some!?

Yes, FedEx overnite, I'll pay.
Good morning all. I see 94L has sorta come back to life today. But, all the moisture appears to be on the East side and does not look like FL will get any of this.
So, how all you folks down South in the Carib (and to the East of 94L), please step outside at an agreed upon time, face West, take a deep breath and blow it out...may take several blows. Hopefully, enough hot air will push that sucker towards Florida.
My dead, brown grass thanks you. Have a fantastic day!
1174. FLdewey
Yes, the rainy season has started.

Wait.

No... that was a bird.
1175. Grothar
Quoting SirOutlaw2010:
We got 3 inches plus here in central KS yesterday. You want me to send you some!?


Yes, but do not send anything in an envelope. We found out they leak.
1177. emcf30
Quoting BobinTampa:



I got about 20 or so drops on my windshield on the way home from work yesterday. It's safe to say, the rainy season has officially begun!

Enjoy!


I got some ash falling from the sky yesterday in O-Town, Does that count?
So nobody has any good ideas for which iphone/ipod app I should try for monitoring hurricane season?
Quoting SirOutlaw2010:
So nobody has any good ideas for which iphone/ipod app I should try for monitoring hurricane season?


sorry about that, I am not ignoring you, I saw your post but I cannot help you. One of the more "techy" ones will have to advise.

Gams
Well, at least thanks for letting me know someone is listening. LOL :)
1183. emcf30
Quoting SirOutlaw2010:
So nobody has any good ideas for which iphone/ipod app I should try for monitoring hurricane season?

WU has a mobile app. Have you tried that. Not familiar with any other specific tracking apps.
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
430 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

GMZ089-101530-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRES IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL WEAKEN INTO A
TROUGH AND MOVE N INTO THE FAR SE WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SAT...THEN BECOME DIFFUSE SUN. A RIDGE ALONG 30N WILL MOVE INTO
THE N CENTRAL GULF ON SUN.

yes... I have it, but it's more for just a local forecast and stuff. I was looking more for something specific for the tropics. Just something that would basically have the lastest updates from the NWS on active storms and maybe some tracking maps for them, and if possible the latest satellite/radar shots. I've got an app that covers every radar in the continental US. It even as the storm velocity (wind) radar views and everything, so there's got to be a good app out the for hurricanes too.
1186. HCW
Quoting SirOutlaw2010:
So nobody has any good ideas for which iphone/ipod app I should try for monitoring hurricane season?


Hurricane Tracker and the Myfox Hurricane app also don't forget Radarscope with a sub to Allison House for lightning data and storm tracks. If you have any other questions feel free to shoot me a Wuemail

Quoting Grothar:
I am just posting this for the general blog. It is the illustrated analysis for the 2011 Hurricane season that came out last week. It is a summary of the data compiled by Drs. Gray and Klotzenbach. It gives a nice detailed explanation of how they arrive at their predictions. It will really answer a few questions we all have

Link

Thanks much Grothar. I found this very helpful in adding my understanding of how the mets use the data out there to forcast their tropical predictions.
1188. pottery
Quoting SirOutlaw2010:
So nobody has any good ideas for which iphone/ipod app I should try for monitoring hurricane season?

Sorry. I cant help there.
But if you have any questions about Gramophones, me or Grothar can assist.
Greetings,

Espanola fire got a name on the Fire Detection Maps in Florida today. Looks like the wind is giving my area a smoke break today.

We need a soaker slow tropical depression here and across the whole south.

Sooner or later, they are going to stop calling this a drought in the South and just call it the new climate.
Ty HCW, I'll check them out!
1192. cg2916
*gasp* OMG! A 10% blob north of the Caribbean!

Wait a minute, that's energy associated w/ 94L. The floater is labeled 94L!
1193. cg2916
94L is back up!

AL, 94, 2011061000, , BEST, 0, 201N, 813W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
1194. hydrus
Quoting pottery:

Sorry. I cant help there.
But if you have any questions about Gramophones, me or Grothar can assist.
This model seems to confirm what Levi said in his Tropical Tidbit...Link
Quoting emcf30:


I got some ash falling from the sky yesterday in O-Town, Does that count?


It's a positive sign. Anything falling from the sky shows that gravitational conditions in your area are suitable for rainfall.

Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Friday, June 10th, with Video


Thank you so much for that most informative Tidbit. And I learned a whole lot and now know to watch the Gulf of G. Did not know why until I watched this. For those of us that lurk (and learn), we do so appreciate all information from all of you on this blog. Levi, if your observations pan out, looks like US might have a direct hit or more this season with stronger than usual storms. Hope not. Oh, and let's all keep those in Haiti in our prayers for the loss of life from 94L. That poor country has just suffered so much.
1198. emcf30
Quoting BobinTampa:


It's a positive sign. Anything falling from the sky shows that gravitational conditions in your area are suitable for rainfall.



That's one way to look at it LOL
1199. Levi32
Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:


Thank you so much for that most informative Tidbit. And I learned a whole lot and now know to watch the Gulf of G. Did not know why until I watched this. For those of us that lurk (and learn), we do so appreciate all information from all of you on this blog. Levi, if your observations pan out, looks like US might have a direct hit or more this season with stronger than usual storms. Hope not. Oh, and let's all keep those in Haiti in our prayers for the loss of life from 94L. That poor country has just suffered so much.


Thanks. I appreciate it.

And yes, thoughts and prayers go out to Haiti. It's terrible that they have to deal with yet another wave of flooding deaths.
Quoting IKE:
According to someone on the blog it started 5 weeks ago.
usually starts by now,jeff always says fl's rainy season starts in may,he says that every year,lol....the rainy season should have ready start though,for real...
1202. Grothar
Quoting FtMyersgal:

Thanks much Grothar. I found this very helpful in adding my understanding of how the mets use the data out there to forcast their tropical predictions.


You are welcome. Glad you found it interesting. I learned a bit from it myself.
1203. snotly
Yo Adrian, can you say Annular... Yo, forget about it.
1204. Levi32
Interesting how the Caribbean vertical instability remains below normal so far. Normally during a season like this, it will be below normal in the early spring and then shoot up to near and above normal by May.

Just in case nobody has already noticed, check out the Gulf of Guinea in June 2005.




Seems like good evidence that a cool Gulf of Guinea can lead to an active hurricane season. Waters down there were much cooler at this stage in 2005 though.
1206. Jax82
Adrian, just a donut with no one around to eat it.


You can see the AZ wildfire too
From posts 1182 (Levi32) and 1194 (Hydrus) -- THANKS for those; you've given me hope that SW Florida isn't going to have to live under this constant wind shear for the entire rest of the summer!

Seriously, thanks for those. Those of us down here who watch the weather closely are going a bit mad of late. Every day this dry wind starts blowing and the clouds die of anemia, my soul just sinks. Along with the rest of SoFla, I know I am past ready for that ULL to go find some other place to dwell!

Thanks, guys; very informative....

Quoting pottery:

Sorry. I cant help there.
But if you have any questions about Gramophones, me or Grothar can assist.


For the iPhone, I like Hurricane by Kitty Code. It is $3.99 but well worth the price....
1210. Buhdog
Rainy season in SWFL IMHO has not been consistent since 2004 and 2005. Since our barrage of canes...its been ULL's, subsidence from lows to our south, or fronts dipping down and switching our flow "backwards". You have had to actually wear a watch to tell time in the summer... we need someone to pump the ridge back to where it used to be.
Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI

Game 5 tonight... who is going to lead the series 3 games to 2?? I pick the Canucks :)






Quoting FLdewey:
Yes, the rainy season has started.

Wait.

No... that was a bird.


Hard to think we are in "rainy season" right now. However, it was determined that we had enough consecutive days a few weeks back with some showers and storms developing on the Gulf sea breeze that it fit a rainy season pattern. Granted, now there's no rain. The 70 dewpoint was used in the past as it was a good indication but you can still have a sea breeze pattern with convection developing without consistent 70 dewpoints.
Finally have good percent chances of rain in S Fla. For Miami 40% chance today and 50% chance tomorrow. Not bad.
Levi's blog explains The Gulf of Guinea cooling and how that impacts Cape Verde generated storms very well for us 'regular folks.' Just adding that the higher the ICTZ the easier it is for spin to occur (away from the equator).
Quoting Orcasystems:
Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI

Game 5 tonight... who is going to lead the series 3 games to 2?? I pick the Canucks :)








Make sure you have your crow cooked extra crispy otherwise :P
Anyone see a spin North of Andros, east of Miami on the radar?
I wonder how many "first Hurricane of the season" have been a major?

Annular anyone?
Mid Level WV



Upper Level WV

12ZNAM @ 30hrs.

T.C.F.W.
01E/MH/A/C4
MARK
15.43N/107.6W
WTIO21 PGTW 092230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
REISSUED//REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/082221JUN2011//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 120 NM RADIUS OF 18.4N 70.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 18 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 092032Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 70.3E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 18.7N
69.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 70.3E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AN AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE LLCC WITH A
SHALLOWER AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE EAST. A 09/1651Z METOP-A 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS. A 09/1714Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A STRONG (30-35
KNOT) SOUTHWESTERLY SURGE ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN QUADRANTS. RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FAVORABLE ZONAL
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE
SUPPRESSED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM INTO THE HIMALAYAS. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE
REGION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, RESULTING IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
SUBSIDENCE. THE 09/12Z UPPER AIR STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES THIS
SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH A RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF 10-20 KNOTS OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LLCC IS GRADUALLY DRIFTING EASTWARD WITHIN
A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT MUMBAI,
INDIA HAS REMAINED STEADY AT 100O MB DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
MAXIMIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18-23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. DUE TO CONTINUED
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
102230Z.//
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (SARIKA) WARNING NR
07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (SARIKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 35NM TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED
ON THE IR IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
BASED ON A 996MB SHIP OBSERVATION 40 NM AWAY. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) LOCATED
JUST NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. TS SARIKA
IS CURRENTLY STEERING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS 05W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ROUNDING THE STEERING RIDGE
AXIS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL EAST OF HONG KONG, CHINA WITHIN THE NEXT
12 HOURS. DUE TO THE MODERATE VWS, TS 05W SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY
BEFORE LAND INTERACTION CAUSES THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. AFTER LANDFALL, REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST, AHEAD OF A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC
FORECAST TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

WTPN31 PHNC 101000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 01E (ADRIAN) WARNING NR 012
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
0900 UTC FRI JUN 10 2011


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 106.5W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 106.5W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 106.1W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.3N 107.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.7N 109.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 16.0N 111.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 16.3N 112.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.0N 113.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 35NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 18.0N 115.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 19.0N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 106.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z.//
Quoting swapilot:
I wonder how many "first Hurricane of the season" have been a major?


The last such occurance was the 2004 Atlantic season, when Hurricane Alex reached category 3, in early August.
The last time it happened in the East Pacific was 2002, with category 3 Hurricane Alma, in late June.
Here is the RUC model @ 18hrs

Quoting NICycloneChaser:


The last such occurance was the 2004 Atlantic season, when Hurricane Alex reached category 3, in early August.
The last time it happened in the East Pacific was 2002, with category 3 Hurricane Alma, in late June.
Alex 2010 was pretty close to being a major hurricane.
Quoting MoltenIce:
Alex 2010 was pretty close to being a major hurricane.


Pesky 'Hurricane Alex's.... Wonder how he'll do in 2016.
I'm surprised Alex wasn't retired, it did cause billions of dollars worth of damages.
That is a rather interesting feature just east of Andros

How much moisture will Adrian pump into the Southwest and west Texas?
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
Just in case nobody has already noticed, check out the Gulf of Guinea in June 2005.




Seems like good evidence that a cool Gulf of Guinea can lead to an active hurricane season. Waters down there were much cooler at this stage in 2005 though.


Looking back, the anomaly was freaky high back in 05. There is certainly more now than last year but at that same Token SST's in general are lower across the basin.
Quoting MoltenIce:
I'm surprised Alex wasn't retired, it did cause billions of dollars worth of damages.


The affected country has to request that it is retired, some serious ones just aren't, for some reason. Most notable is probably Hurricane Emily, which, unless seasonal forecasts are very, very wrong, we'll see again this year. I was actually suprised Matthew of last year wasn't retired, $2.6 billion damage and 126 direct fatalities.
Quoting swapilot:
I wonder how many "first Hurricane of the season" have been a major?


Hurricane Alex of 2004 to name an example.
Buhdog, I experienced the same thing on the North Gulf Coast after Hurricane Frederic in 1979. Two years of historic, unprecedented heat and drought afterwards; tornadoes dropping from the sky almost every year (we'd only had a tornado scare once in my entire teenage lifetime, prior); stunning spring floods back to back. Like you, I just wanted things to go back to the way they used to be!
Quoting MoltenIce:
I'm surprised Alex wasn't retired, it did cause billions of dollars worth of damages.


Retirement usually depends on the countries input. Mexico didn't request one, so nothing happened.
1237. aquak9
totally socked in from smoke- less than two block visibility here in downtown Jacksonville.

must be fires nearby? and no air movement...it got real bad, real quick.
Quoting MoltenIce:

Annular anyone?


It'll start a debate, but Levi pointed out some annular characteristics yesterday, maybe this is how the hurricane has achieved this status despite not having perfect conditions underneath it, because it was ingesting dry air yesterday and just seem to sculf at it.

Time will tell, I do believe annular hurricanes have more of a tendency of maintaining a strong structure well within sea surface tempertures lower than the 80 degree threshold.

Quoting ElConando:


Looking back, the anomaly was freaky high back in 05. There is certainly more now than last year but at that same Token SST's in general are lower across the basin.


True, they are, however there was a bit of a cool area down there this time last year too:





Good 850V with that Andros AOI.

Currently in deadly wind shear but, lower is on the way.


Quoting Chicklit:
Levi's blog explains The Gulf of Guinea cooling and how that impacts Cape Verde generated storms very well for us 'regular folks.' Just adding that the higher the ICTZ the easier it is for spin to occur (away from the equator).


A farmer in Missouri is standing waist deep in water.

I am advancing a new theory called "Where did the water go?"

If there is too much water on the ground in some places, that same water that was up in the sky can't be back up in the sky (yet). It has to evaporate.

I think that this is what we are waiting for: More water to get back up in the atmosphere.

It only makes sense. It isn't here and hasn't been here for awhile. It isn't up there. It isn't out west..Some of it fell in Haiti to some (apparently) unsuspecting Haitians:



I was just trying to put myself there and picture why so many Haitians perish during heavy rains. it's like they don't know what to do. It's not just them, it's other people too in hurricanes, tornadoes, fires and floods, rock concerts and other natural disasters.

So, once again, I bid all: BE SAFE out there!



Every plumber knows the water cycle....
Message Date: Jun 10 2011 13:38:23 12z MIA SOUNDING (06/10/11) EQUIL LEVEL 46506, CAPE 3133, PWAT 1.78, 500 MLB TEM P -9.1C, HGT OF WET BULB 11829, LI INDEX -8.26, FRZ LEVEL 14433. THERE IS A SLIG HT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF I-75. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE O F PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH TODAY.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Currently in deadly wind shear but, lower is on the way.




By the time it reaches low shear, SSTs will be decreasing pretty quickly, might be warm enough to become sub-tropical but I don't think it will have time to sit in low shear before it get's kicked back into the north of the Atlantic.
Quoting aquak9:
totally socked in from smoke- less than two block visibility here in downtown Jacksonville.

must be fires nearby? and no air movement...it got real bad, real quick.


Espanola fire to your south. Not nearby but GOES visible shows it as the source.
1247. Walshy
Statement as of 1:25 am EDT on June 10, 2011
... Record high temperature equalled in Chattanooga...
The record high temperature of 97 degrees was tied at Lovell Field in Chattanooga yesterday.

The record was previously set in 1898.
1248. aquak9
eyewall- it's funny, those ones have been kinda kicking, kinda smoldering for days...it's been a little hazy all week but now we are totally socked in. I'm on the 8th floor, and can barely see the road below, now.
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


By the time it reaches low shear, SSTs will be decreasing pretty quickly, might be warm enough to become sub-tropical but I don't think it will have time to sit in low shear before it get's kicked back into the north of the Atlantic.


I'm doing some serious wish casting today. I'm about 100 miles WNW :-)
1250. Jax82
Quoting aquak9:
totally socked in from smoke- less than two block visibility here in downtown Jacksonville.

must be fires nearby? and no air movement...it got real bad, real quick.


All clear here at 95/Old St Aug Rd. Small fires have been poppin up everywhere.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


I'm doing some serious wish casting today. I'm about 100 miles WNW :-)


Haha, here's hoping it wraps some convection round to its west.
1252. aquak9
Quoting Jax82:


All clear here at 95/Old St Aug Rd. Small fires have been poppin up everywhere.

are you kidding?? ya'll are clear down there? That's crazy.
1253. goavs4
Wow, what an impressive storm (even though the cloud tops are now warming)

Quoting ILwthrfan:
How much moisture will Adrian pump into the Southwest and west Texas?


Hi Il,

It really depends on the path. From my understanding, these East Pacific Hurricanes really take themselves out of prime area as they West and North. At some point after they weaken, they are usually picked up by a trough and remnants are scattered over the South Western US.

In my experience, 90% of the time, the most you'll get is some afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains and deserts, but sometimes, a powerful hurricane can get picked up quickly enough to remain somewhat together. I remember the only Tropical Depression to actually hit southern California in my lifetime in 1977 (or maybe 1978), so it does happen.
Anyone thinking 94L will give some rain to FL? Looks like it all going to go east to me.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI

Game 5 tonight... who is going to lead the series 3 games to 2?? I pick the Canucks :)








Um, they got completely embarrassed in Boston and now Boston has the momentum, so it ain't gonna happen :)
Morning all.... quick lookin to say,

WHOOHOO!!!! It finally rained last night!!!! I haven't checked totals yet, but I'm sure we got at least an inch overnight here on New Providence. The cloud cover from 94L is still around, keeping it cool [hopefully for the rest of the day]. Hopefully this means we have started the rainy season, but not the flood season... lol

everyone get one of these and maybe we can pump the ridge
Quoting iahishome:


Hi Il,

It really depends on the path. From my understanding, these East Pacific Hurricanes really take themselves out of prime area as they West and North. At some point after they weaken, they are usually picked up by a trough and remnants are scattered over the South Western US.

In my experience, 90% of the time, the most you'll get is some afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains and deserts, but sometimes, a powerful hurricane can get picked up quickly enough to remain somewhat together. I remember the only Tropical Depression to actually hit southern California in my lifetime in 1977 (or maybe 1978), so it does happen.
usually they move toward hi in a weaken state
I'm looking at the maps in motion and find myself doing a Carlton Fisk trying to will the clouds west and into South Florida. So far, it hasn't worked...and my arms are getting tired.
1261. pottery
I completely forgot to say---

The Calabash tree shed all it's remaining leaves in a Frantic Leaf-Storm on the 6th. BOOM!
The next day, June 7, it was covered with small green leaves.

Ergo-
The Rainy Season OFFICIALLY began on JUNE 7th, 2011.

(everything that happened before that date, was Pre-Season).

It will rain in Florida, Texas, all over, very soon.
OLD BLOG
Quoting aquak9:
totally socked in from smoke- less than two block visibility here in downtown Jacksonville.

must be fires nearby? and no air movement...it got real bad, real quick.


Hey Aqua, it's from the Espanola fire in northwest Flagler county.


Smoke from the Espanola wildfire is impacting the Jacksonville
Metro area this morning...

Smoke from the Espanola wildfire in Flagler County has drifted
northward up the St Johns River basin and is impacting the
Jacksonville Metro area this morning. A strong smell of smoke along
with visibilities of 2 to 4 miles will be common through the early
afternoon hours until the Atlantic sea breeze pushes the smoke
inland and west of the Metro area.

Also shows up quite well on visible sat.
Link
1264. Grothar