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Wind, waters rising across the Northeast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:46 PM GMT on April 15, 2007

Water levels are starting to rise along the Atlantic coast from New Jersey to Maine, as the Nor'easter of 2007 prepares to enter its explosive deepening phase. At 2pm EDT, the center of the storm was over North Carolina, with a central pressure of 987 mb. Winds over the ocean are starting to rise significantly. Sustained winds of tropical storm force--44 mph, gusting to 50--were observed at 2pm EDT just south of Long Island at Ambrose Light. The storm is expected to move northeastward and cross out to sea off the Delaware coast this evening, and rapidly intensify to a central pressure of 975 mb as it tracks up the coast of New Jersey and passes directly over New York City.


Figure 1. Tidal levels observed at The Battery in New York City as of 2pm EDT Sunday April 15. Note that water levels were two feet above normal at the time, but it was low tide. High tide tonight (near 00 GMT, or 8pm EDT) will see significant coastal flooding. The Battery is located on the southern tip of Manhattan Island. Image credit:NOAA Tides and Currents website.

Water levels at The Battery in New York City were two feet above normal at 2pm, but coastal flooding had not yet occurred, since it was low tide. The tidal range at New York City is six feet today, and some of the highest tides of the year are expected tonight and Monday, due to the arrival of the new moon. When the Sun, Earth, and Moon all line up (which happens during each new moon and full moon), the highest high tides of the year occur. The strongest winds of the 2007 Nor'easter will affect New York City during high tide tonight at 7:30pm. The expected 3-4 foot storm surge in western Long Island Sound near New York City would match the levels seen there in the "Perfect Storm" of October 31, 1991 (Figure 2), and the March 13, 1993 Storm of the Century. The worst coastal flooding in recent years in New York City occurred during the December 11-12 1992 Nor'easter, which damaged as many as 20,000 homes and forced almost 2,000 people to take refuge in emergency storm shelters. Storm surges of 4 feet were recorded near New York City (Figure 3), and 5.5 feet in western Long Island Sound. Some computer models are forecasting a 4-6 foot storm surge over Long Island Sound tonight, and it is possible that the flooding levels seen in the December 1992 Nor'easter will be exceeded. The timing of the peak of this surge with the high tide cycle will be critical, as will the exact track of the storm. If the storm does track directly over New York City tonight, the relatively calm winds near the center may allow some of the storm surge to flow out of Long Island Sound.


Figure 2. Tidal levels observed at The Battery in New York City during the "Perfect Storm" of October 31, 1991. This storm brought the second highest storm surge to New York City observed in recent years.


Figure 3. Tidal levels observed at The Battery in New York City during the Nor'easter of December 11-12, 1992. This storm brought the highest storm surge to New York City observed since tidal record began at The Battery in 1966.

The same storm also brought heavy snow to Kansas and baseball-sized hail to Texas Saturday, and more severe weather is occurring today across the region where the cold front is passing. However, the main story of this storm will be coastal flooding in the Northeast, and wind damage from tropical-storm force winds. Freshwater flooding from the storm's 3-5 inches of rain could also cause localized flooding problems.

Tune in tonight, I'll have an update, and there will also be a separate update on the East Coast Winter Storm blog.

Jeff Masters
Batter Up!
Batter Up!
We had a tornado about 5 miles south of here last night. We just got a little Texas sized hail. This piece had melted a little before we got it. Lots of damage here.

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

yeah. The wind and rain are definitely picking up here on Long Island.
58th
Thanks for the update Dr.Masters.
dr m you have mail


great update!
could this be come a caat 2 hurricane ?
no, dont spaz taz
pressure down to 29.33 in myrtle beach..... approaching line of storms..... wind gusts exceeding 30mph....

have a good Sunday all! :)
Posted By: Tazmanian at 11:56 AM EDT on April 15, 2007.

could this be come a caat 2 hurricane ?

Taz i dont expect this to amount to a cat2 hurricane but 50-70mph winds are quite possible in those areas.Keep in mind this is a cold-core system.
Taz.... this is a non-tropical storm..... how can it become a hurricane? LOL
no, dont spaz taz

huh?
any ch this could be come tropical some Nor'easter do
GFS has it down to 975mb in 36hr time frame.SEE HERE
I have recently updated my blog with the latest information on the potental noreaster. Please check it out.

1900hurricane's Wunderblog
Here the visible showing the cyclogenesis beginning...rapidly as it nears the coast..its getting better organised ..fast.Link
Prepare now..on Long Island and points north ..for no power or services for 3 days.Review and check your supplies,meds and action plan
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Upton New York
1128 am EDT sun Apr 15 2007


Synopsis...
low pressure over North Carolina will move across the Delaware-Maryland-Virginia
early this afternoon...and then explosively deepen as it slowly
tracks towards New York City tonight. The low then moves across
NYC into the lower Hudson Valley Monday morning...and then looping
back over the region Monday into Monday evening as it
fills...before moving east late Monday night. The low continues to
move slowly move east through Wednesday. The storm will pose a
variety of weather problems for the local area Sunday through at
least Tuesday. High pressure will then build slowly into the
region from the north Thursday through Saturday.


&&


Near term /through Monday/...
developing full latitude upper trough is swinging through the
Mississippi Valley early this morning as upper trough axis slides
offshore. The upper trough will reach neutral tilt early this
afternoon from upper Great Lakes to Gulf Coast...with deep SW flow
continuing to back to southerly up the East Coast. At the
surface...low pressure over North Carolina this morning will slowly
track NE towards the middle-Atlantic while intensifying. Rain will
continue to overspread the area early this morning from SW to NE
in response to strong Theta-E advection and impressive isentropic
lift in developing diffluent flow aloft and ahead of developing 70
lt low level jet up the middle-Atlantic coast.


Models have come into good agreement with main synoptic features
with the elongating closed low over eastern Ontario phasing with
strong shortwave energy rounding the base of the upper trough and
riding up East Coast on front side of negatively tilting upper
trough by this evening...resulting in a two a 2-3 Standard below normal
closed low across central PA.


This is a westward and slower placement and evolution than
previous days runs...but in general well in line with the most
consistent European model (ecmwf)/Gem solutions of the past few days. In fact 00z
GFS/12z European model (ecmwf)/00z can reg are in very good agreement...with NAM just
a bit farther east.


So at the surface...models in agreement tracking the low pressure
through the Delaware-Maryland-Virginia early this afternoon and then rapidly
intensifying as it tracks up the New Jersey coast late this afternoon
through tonight...in response to phasing upper energies.


Heavy rain has overspread the entire area and will continue through
this evening with strong synoptic ascent in diffluent upper
flow...and as a wide band of 700-850 frontogenic forcing develops
in tightening baroclinic zones to the north/NE of bombing low pressure
moving towards lifted index. Copious moisture and additional lift being
provided by 70-75 knots low level jet developing to the east side of the
surface low bringing in 2-3 Standard above normal precipitable water air...and then
dumping it over the region with 4-5 Standard above normal 850 u-wind
component. The perfect combination for a heavy precipitation event over
the area.


Precipitation will be heavy...and there are new indications from various
model output that we could see 5 inches in spots. So Flood Watch
will be continued for all of region through 08z. Already have issued
flood warnings/advisories across the region.


Winds are increasing rapidly this morning ahead of bombing low
pressure...with a 55-60 knots 950 hpa southeast low level jet developing. A good
percentage of these winds should be able to mix down through late
afternoon...for a period of winds of 40 miles per hour or greater sustained
and gusts to around 58 miles per hour expected between 2 PM and 8 PM this
afternoon across Suffolk County lifted index and coastal southeast Conn where the
intensifying low level jet will cross region ahead of bombing low pressure.
Away from the immediate coast...greater threat may be for the
damaging wind gusts in the warning area as the low level jet will coincide
with heavy rainfall. Along the immediate coast of the warning
area...with storm force winds expected on the eastern waters...a
period of sustained winds of 40 to 45 miles per hour are likely across the
adjacent coastal sections in addition to the gusts. Although low level jet
will remain strong late into the evening across far eastern
section of the area...strong warm air advection should strengthen low level
inversion and begin to cut off winds mixing to the surface.
With the low at 990mb centered over western NC at present, why wouldn't the pressure drop lower than 977 over the Atlantic? Seems very conservative.
so is it rapidly intensify ???
cold core phasing has a known limit formula..its complicated but it works.
The cyclogenesis can be best viewed on the Regional animated radar view.. it should show it nicely thru the events worst...Link
any ch this thing be comeing tropical ???
So for the most part, since the waters aren't warm enough to contribute to lower barometric pressure, when this storm curls out into the Atlantic, it will essentially just pick up moisture, not increased winds.
25. cdo
taz, NO!
What will be the effect of the decreasing wind shear off the coast in 24 hours...Patrap?
28. cdo
better weather
Current conditions in Newark DE

Rain
Winds NE 15mph
Pressure 29.44 (was 29.69 at 7:30) and falling
Already over 2 inches of rain has fallen with more to come. Numerous roads have been closed to high water.
weatherboss87 once it moves of the coast it should begin to intensify at a good clip while moving up the coast.
cdo...better weather as in calmer weather or more interesting weather?
Look at the little tentacles way down in the Gulf. Its going to take moisture from way down there there and put it way up there.
34. cdo
nicer weather, until the next storm later in the week(but will way way weaker than this one) and also the Spring Tides will not be a factor then.

doubtful weatherboss
Taz my friend, I know you are antsy, but you will have to wait a while longer for tropical activity.
37. cdo
yeah taz, you got 3 more months to wait
cdo,don't be mean to Taz.He's just excited about the storm.
Perhaps this is a faulty barometer.
http://www.wunderground.com/US/GA/Washington.html
Another one up the way a bit.
http://www.wunderground.com/US/NC/Concord.html
Oh,and Taz.The new Bermuda high long range forecast models are out.They generally indicate a strong high this year,but like last month there is some disagreement.
ok im sure some of you know this but a 975mb nor'easter does not equate to the windspeeds of a 975mb hurricane/ts b/c nor'easter donot develop a tight concentric eye which the winds can just whip around. However the max winds that do develop in a nor'easter will be felt over a larger area as the center of circulation is much broader.Even think in how with a hurricane a large eye will not support as a high as wind speeds as small eye (ex: if Katrina had a smaller eye it would have had hihger sustained winds). Also classic nor'easters take on a comma shape (see sat pic of 1993 superstorm)where as a tropical system takes on a donut shape. Plus tropical systems need warm waters which do not exist in the northeast right now. Hopefully this clarifys some things a little bit
I knew that.
It's been said for days,weatherwatchin,but people won't stop saying it will be tropical.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0506
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN FL...FL KEYS.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 148...

VALID 151703Z - 151900Z

WW 148 SVR POTENTIAL CONTINUES...ALONG/AHEAD OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE
BAND THAT WAS EVIDENT AT 1645Z NEAR XMR-FMY LINE. ASSOCIATED BAND
OF STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER ASCENT WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH AIR MASS
THAT WAS STRONGLY HEATED BEFORE SOME SHADING FROM ANVIL CANOPY. SFC
TEMPS MID-UPPER 80S ALONG E COAST -- COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S -- YIELD MLCAPES IN 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE BASED ON
MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. VWP DATA AND RUC
HODOGRAPHS INDICATE FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES NOW IN
PLACE...AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS PRE-STORM SECTOR THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-AFTERNOON. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR STRENGTHENS WITH NWD
EXTENT BENEATH MORE INTENSE MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS...AND RANGES FROM
AROUND 30-35 KT AT MIA TO 50-60 KT NEAR XMR. TORNADO REPORTED AT
15Z N POLK COUNTY...AND POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL PERSIST
ESPECIALLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH BOW/LEWP CIRCULATIONS AND ANY
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS THAT CAN DEVELOP. SRN PORTION OF LINE ALSO WILL
AFFECT DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK WITHIN NEXT HOUR...FOLLOWED 1-2
HOURS THEREAFTER BY MARQUESAS KEYS AND EYW REGION.

Superstorm of '93 was March 12-14. This one will be April 15-17.
Have Gotten 2.16" of Rain here in Severna Park,MD just south of Baltimore. Pressure is 992.7mb.
The whole east coast of the US will be affected by this system. Here's South Florida right now:


Anyone here from Raleigh NC or thereabouts ?
kris, that long range bermuda high forecast would really worry me if I had any confidence in long range forecast...lol

Hopefully that will change...

wbk-think we will see as many ULLs this year?
i live in virginia but i'm only an hour and a half northwest of raleigh
Hopefully yes...
hey whats up wit the noreatern??
did anyone attend dr. masters lecture on friday?
23, Raysfan70 went. She has a little wright up about it in her blog...
The wind just set off my wife's car alarm..

Rain: ETA 5 min.
K8ECANE. Thanks for the response to the earlier question. Explain to 'lil Buddy, that lightening is natures way of helping the plants to grow, by fixing nitrogen in the atmosphere and in the ground ( fertilizer )
Here in Trinidad, the Amerindians used to give thanks at the spot where the lightening touched down. Its good stuff, unless you stand outside when its going off. HI BUDDY !
The barometric pressure here fell below 1000 mb for the first time since Feb 27, 2005.
Wow, gaguy, thats a bad sign.....
Stansims > Thanks. My sister ( lives in Arizona ) is visiting her daughter in Raleigh. Was just wondering how they were making out. Checked the Ral. weather a few mins ago. Looks like they may be in for an exciting time. You too..........
stay safe.
Yeah lows typically get deep when they are well past us. Will be interesting to see the lowest pressure this one drops down to. But in April 1982 a noreaster dropped to 966 mb (28.52") @ Nantucket, so deep lows have happened before in April.
I live 10 miles from Manhattan. The wind is very calm now, and has only reached 10-15 mph. Is this going to get any worse as we head into the evening?

The only worry is getting to work on the trains tomorrow with all the flooding. The roads flood here easy anyway....not to mention adding 3-5 inches.
This is the WRF forcast for the storm at this time. This run was initialized last night. The lowest pressure of the storm was forcasted to be 987 mbs.



Now these are the current conditions from North Carolina and a radar image. The lowest reliable pressure from NC is 987 mbs. Also here is a current condidtions map.



The accuracy of that forcast so far has been dead-on. Now, here is the image from the same model run when the storm is at it's peak.



The model run has the storm bombing out to 965 mbs. That is somewhat lower than the other model runs, but the forcast has been dead-on so far, and the WRF has been very consistant for the past two days... You never know, it could be true.
good obs 1900
The model run has the storm bombing out to 965 mbs.


Can i have the link if its ok with you?? :)
Hey guys ... Are the storms approaching soth Florida still severe??/ they dont like much to me ....?? They do have the tornado watch ..but they havent issued any warning yet
The weather here....
temp 91 f
humid. 41 %
gentle breezes
cold beer

what are you all doing there ? heheheh
At the moment, they don't look severe to me. Heavy rain makers, but not severe.

LInk
You don't have to rub it in...
Sorry. Could'nt help myself. I'm envious............
Envious of what???
Envious of the rain you're getting. The rest of the stuff is not good. Did not mean to sound flippant......
HHMMMM....Beer..... did someone say beer
Fifth Ave. and 45th Street New York,NY Link
I'm kind of envious of your weather!

See y'all later!
suppppp pat
Only if you can confirm that you are of legal age, Rick.... LOL
Looks like Central and South Florida will not get the severe storms they were speaking of. Granted things can change in an instant, not likely though. Just some brief heavy rains and maybe a rumble of thunder or two, chance of isolated tornado's.
aahh...errrrr.... gray hair on my chinny chin chin
Cloud-cover has put a cap on severe weather for miami dade and broward couties.
OK , Thats qualification enough. Head directly to the fridge. Salud !
okey dokey.....but there are several barking in the cooler outside...think they want out
hey pat... wind rattle ya this morn?
.....the fridge is the big white thing in the corner of the kithen. With the handle on the front. Thats right. Pull the handle. There you go................

( Oh sorry, you said grey on the chin, I thought you said white. Never mind . heheheh )
Been cloudy here in PBC all day also 23. Which is good, I always hate to see the severe weather. We'll take the rain, you can have the severe stuff. Muggy as all get out though, I was working outside sweating my but off. It also could have been the drinking last night, lol.
Jeez JUSTRICK..I thought you got abducted by er..aliens or some Govt entity..LOL..wassup
Was a gale almost a Blowing..arrgh!!!...It twas a tad bumpy..but Im oriented N to S. So I was streamlining ..
Budweiser casualities I presume?
aahhhh....no and no.... puter problems and work work work... just check in ever so often.
kinda got a day off...so i took captives last night and will slowly be releasing them today.
"....barking in the cooler outside...." I love it. LOL
you still in the mobile casa ?
sry dogs they are too pottery
brb.... think they are squabbin...sound like a dog fight... better go check on em...
pulled out the offending party by the scruff of the neck and popped his top.....

ya'll dont mind me...I'm just taking up space between people who have relevant post.
Big Ol storm,
Pressure is 989.5 here now just south of Baltimore.
This storm is going to be everything they warned about! I hope all heeded the warning!
Beer! Great idea, pottery. Sunny, warm here today in Portugal. 75 degrees, humidity 45%. Sun has set now and a beer sounds good after a hard day of 3 hours at the beach and washing two cars! Kids are in bed now too!
Pressure now 981 on the SPC map...click on "Fire Weather" to get the national synoptical map...
The low is gonna go right over this bouy...


Station 44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN ROWAN COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT

* AT 401 PM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SPENCER...OR ABOUT 4 MILES EAST OF
SALISBURY...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 105 MPH.
The low still has not moved offshore...

Here is a view from one of my software.

Here's another eastcoast view of the developing nor'easter.



The storm is really taking shape!
Pressure here in Newark DE is:

29.29.
There's major flooding occurring along some of the creeks
4.10" of rain @ Central Park as of 4 p.m.
Pressure here at my house just South of baltimore at 4:25pm is 988.2mb! WOW!
YEAH WOW!! Is that as strong as a cat 1 hurricane?
Almost.Just about.
I went out on my porch here in SEFL and was amazed at how fast these clouds are moving. Erie reminder of when I stepped out on the porch after Hurricane Jeanne. This is going to be a monster storm.
Sheesh all. I wish the best and safetly for all of you and all people affected by this storm.

Peace On Earth
29.14 in / 986.3 hPa ... heres your pressure here near richmond, va...and it is still dropping. I wonder how far it will go down here before it starts to rise again. It was at 29.16 in / 987.4 hPa less that 30 minutes ago. Kinda crazy if you ask me.
AT 401 PM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SPENCER...OR ABOUT 4 MILES EAST OF
SALISBURY...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 105 MPH.


Did that severe thunderstorm warning say it is moving 105 mph?????
I think a little stronger than predicted even...
The '91 (Perfect Storm) reached 972 MB-- I still remember that one.
Yes, 105mph!
Station ALSN6 - Ambrose Light, NY

Owned and maintained by National Data Buoy Center
C-MAN station
ARES payload
40.46 N 73.83 W (4027'00" N 7348'00" W)

Site elevation: 0.0 m above mean sea level
Air temp height: 28.3 m above site elevation
Anemometer height: 29.0 m above site elevation
Barometer elevation: 21.3 m above mean sea level


Alert: Right whales are active off NY. NOAA recommends vessels reduce speeds below 10 knots, when consistent with safety of navigation. For further info go to: http://rwhalesightings.nefsc.noaa.gov

Latest NWS Marine Forecast 1 and Latest NWS Marine Forecast 2

Important Notice to Mariners

Search And Rescue (SAR) Data

Meteorological Observations from Nearby Stations and Ships

Regional HF Radar Surface Current Observations

Latest Satellite Wind Map for this Area

Sector pictures are available for this station at 0, 45, 90, 135, 180, 225, 270, 315 degrees.

(SECTOR PHOTOS ARE NOT IN REAL-TIME AND ARE NOT UPDATED!)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Conditions at ALSN6 as of
(4:00 pm EDT)
2000 GMT on 04/15/2007: Unit of Measure: EnglishMetric Time Zone: Station Local TimeGreenwich Mean Time [GMT]British Summer Time [GMT+1]Eastern Greenland [GMT-1]Azores [GMT-2]Western Greenland [GMT-3]Atlantic Standard [GMT-4]US/Eastern StandardUS/Central StandardUS/Mountain StandardUS/Pacific StandardAlaska Standard [GMT-9]Hawaii-Aleutian Standard [GMT-10]Samoa Standard [GMT-11]International Date Line West [GMT-12]Western European [GMT+0]Central European [GMT+1]Eastern European [GMT+2]Moscow [GMT+3]USSR Zone 3 [GMT+4]USSR Zone 4 [GMT+5]USSR Zone 5 [GMT+6]USSR Zone 6 [GMT+7]China Coast [GMT+8]Japan Standard [GMT+9]Guam Standard [GMT+10]GMT+11International Date Line East [GMT+12]
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

Wind Direction (WDIR): SE ( 130 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 36 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 43 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.30 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.16 in ( Falling Rapidly )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 49.3 F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 43.2 F
Dew Point (DEWP): 47.7 F
Wind Chill (CHILL): 39.7 F
well, i'm sitting here north of philly and there is no wind. we have gotten a lot of rain, but nothing terribly outrageous. is this it for us?
want....i seriously doubt it....watch out later tonight and tommarow morning when the low starts winding up real good...
impressive pics 23
Never heard of a storm moving that fast. It would be gone as soon as it arrived!!
That's the fastest mover I have ever seen reported. I have seen 95mph before.
Thanks for trying to cheer me up, watching.
this is my forcast from weatherunderground it sounds so boring:

Tonight
Rain this evening possibly heavy at times...then rain with a chance of wet snow after midnight. Little or no snow accumulation. Lows in the upper 30s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph...becoming northwest 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.
Monday
Rain with a chance of wet snow in the morning...then showers likely in the afternoon. Windy with highs in the mid 40s. West winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts to around 45 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.
129. V26R
Okay this isn't funny any more, who ever pissed MotherNature off, please appologize to her RIGHT NOW
5 inches of rain in Staten Island, NY and still pouring No wind yet!
130. V26R
Pressure is 29.33 inches and falling fast here too, think this thing is really going to explode
131. H2PV
Posted By: airman45 at 8:38 PM GMT on April 15, 2007.
AT 401 PM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SPENCER...OR ABOUT 4 MILES EAST OF
SALISBURY...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 105 MPH.

Did that severe thunderstorm warning say it is moving 105 mph?????


Where did this report come from? Link?
haha we didnt even get thunder here in broward
wow...pressure now down to 29.09 in / 984.9 hPa here near richmond, va....it just keeps dropping at a pretty hefty clip...it was at 29.16 in / 987.4 hPa just over an hour ago...its coming down...waiting to see it steady out...probly wont do that till later this evening...
What pressures are you guys getting in the mid-atlantic and up the east coast???
135. V26R
105 mph movement HAS to be a mistype
Here in Delaware it is at: 29.26 and falling
137. V26R
Watchingnva We have 29.33 inches in extreme southern Staten Island, NY
Pressure is 29.24 winds SE 25, gust 38 Belmar NJ
ok at Raleigh NC there mb is 28.70 in / 971.8 hPa
140. TAC9
Brockton Ma (SE Mass) Light rain, Temp 39 degrees, Wind gusts 21Mph, Pressure is 30.02 inchs and falling.
this to tell you that is the lowest mb i can find in NC
I live, About 30 miles west of WInston Selem and I am Geting 976 mb right now
143. V26R
FUBFEE Hows the rain down there? Someone just shut it off up here right now
well in Raleigh NC there a mb of 971
I know I'am jsutr saying that that is likey Right Because I have a reading near it
in Concord NC there is a mb of 968mb
Here its 987.3 south of baltimore
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN ROWAN COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT

* AT 401 PM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SPENCER...OR ABOUT 4 MILES EAST OF
SALISBURY...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 105 MPH.
149. V26R
Down to 991mb here in Staten Island right now and still falling
moveing at 105mph NO WAY
151. V26R
Have to agree with you Taz seems like a misprint, never seen or even heard of a boomer moving that fast
The center is currently near or directly over this site.

Station DUCN7 - Duck Pier, NC

Conditions at DUCN7 as of
(5:30 pm EDT)
2130 GMT on 04/15/2007: Unit of Measure: EnglishMetric Time Zone: Station Local TimeGreenwich Mean Time [GMT]British Summer Time [GMT+1]Eastern Greenland [GMT-1]Azores [GMT-2]Western Greenland [GMT-3]Atlantic Standard [GMT-4]US/Eastern StandardUS/Central StandardUS/Mountain StandardUS/Pacific StandardAlaska Standard [GMT-9]Hawaii-Aleutian Standard [GMT-10]Samoa Standard [GMT-11]International Date Line West [GMT-12]Western European [GMT+0]Central European [GMT+1]Eastern European [GMT+2]Moscow [GMT+3]USSR Zone 3 [GMT+4]USSR Zone 4 [GMT+5]USSR Zone 5 [GMT+6]USSR Zone 6 [GMT+7]China Coast [GMT+8]Japan Standard [GMT+9]Guam Standard [GMT+10]GMT+11International Date Line East [GMT+12]
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

Wind Direction (WDIR): S ( 190 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 22 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 26 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.09 in
Air Temperature (ATMP): 67.8 F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 49.3 F
Dew Point (DEWP): 64.0 F
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure

Rainfall in Central Park is now 5.51" for today. If it stopped there, it would be the 6th wettest day in NYC-Central Park history since Oct, 1869.

Days with more rain in Central Park

5.54" September 21, 1966
5.60" November 8, 1972
7.33" October 9, 1903
7.40" November 8, 1977
8.28" September 23, 1882

All the heaviest rainfalls above this one took place in the fall.

105mph is believable. I saw a line of serious supercells in Oklahoma in February rolling at 95mph. Contact the issuing office for verification.
I remember a cell in Katrina moving at 138 mph, but that is a bit different :P
Oh and the sea level here is LOW -2.24 ft departure as the west wind blows. Greatest negative departure I have seen officially on the instruments, although it was much lower than that in the March 1993 superstorm.
Other minor events--pressure here fell to 997 mb (29.45") which is the lowest since the Jan 2000 storm that brought record snow to Raleigh, NC. We also had a power outage for about 35 minutes this afternoon. Less than half an inch of rain. Very windy with lots of gusts above 40 mph, and cool, 55 now here.
158. V26R
Looks as if the worst of the Precp is just about to move off the NYC/NJ Coast, now its the New Englanders turnLink
159. V26R
Just hope this monster just doesn't retrograde
back west!
rain as tapered off for now, however looks like an other big slug is moving up. winds have picked up a bit and my mother in laws roof is leaking.
the mb at Concord NC has went back up to 969mb from 968mb
pressure is not below 980 mb yet at any reliable observations.

Charlottesville, VA was around 966 mb this morning--that too was wrong.
Here in Newark Delaware some changes are happening:

Winds have switched to the Northwest and The pressure is now rising. Cancel that I just checked it is down to 29.22

29.25 and rising
Winds NW: 12mph
with rain

Wind advisory now in affect
where is dr m may be he can come out and give us a update on what kind of mb this storm has right now

i am seeing mb has low has 968mb
Hmmm... well here in Severna Park its 986.4 and still falling rapidly. Winds have piced up also..
for a Nor'easter it sure not a vary windy one now is it
not yet anyway but the winds are starting to increase
I got a pressure of 991.51mbs with wind gusts only at 12mph. BUT i have gotten 2.25in of rain.
Once the center moves offshore the land friction will be eliminated and it will deepen rapidly. Deepen, meaning winds catching up to the pressure. It is almost there, not yet though.
So Cane, how deep do you think this thing will get??
I haven't looked at the latest GFS but the last I seen was a little stronger than was forcast. I believe it was in the 967 range. I seriously doubt it will get that low, probably in the mid 970's.
The low is basically going to stay inland. But that won't matter. The Superstorm stayed inland too, as well as the great Ohio bomb of 1978 that dropped pressures to 958 mb @ Cleveland. Extratropical storms can deepen just as much over land as over the ocean.
yeah true the super-storm of 93 really caught me off guard with 20+ inches of snow!!
It is below the GFS forecast in terms of pressure already.The GFS had it at 984 at 8 PM.It'll be around 982 then.
In Freehold, NJ at 7pm we are at 986.38 mb and falling rapidly. Winds are now just building and recently gusted to 20 mph. Temp. still 56.
not to get off topic but anyone have an idea of how bad the hail damage was in the dallas ft. worth area? was it widespread?

thank you
I remember the superstorm of 93 too... dropped 26 inches here and I'm not in the mountains or favored lake-effect places, I'm actually in a valley (the st-lawrence river valley in QC) so it's quite rare to get such a huge amount of snow.
Next weekend's preliminary outlook:



DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2007

VALID 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS
PERIOD...IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY
EWD/OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.

HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN
HINTING THAT A FAIRLY POTENT UPPER TROUGH SHOULD CROSS THE ROCKIES
AND AFFECT THE PLAINS ON DAY 7 /SAT. APR. 21/. BOTH FORECAST THAT
AMPLE MOISTURE SHOULD RETURN NWWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/S CENTRAL CONUS
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS --
POSSIBLY SETTING THE STAGE FOR A RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT.

THOUGH THE UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO
LIFT NEWD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR DAY 8...AMOUNT OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- AND THUS POTENTIAL FOR AMPLE DESTABILIZATION
-- REMAIN A QUESTION ATTM -- THEREFORE...WILL NOT OUTLOOK AN AREA
FOR DAY 8 ATTM.
The lowest pressure I could find in NC was at this station at 6PM eastern...
Currituck, Currituck County Airport, NC
28.99 inches (981 hPa)
ecflawthr~Storm reports for the Dallas Ft Worth area.
980.3 here in SE VA. over 2 inches of rain today. winds seem calmer at the moment.
Barely got rain out of this thing in here in north central fla - but - WOW there are some sick pressures out there now in the NE.

Cuba is having a bad day too.
House shaking wind gusts allready in the mountains of Sussex County in franklin... Since this thing is going to park itself over NYC tomorow morning i expect some good winds...
NYC-Central park had another 0.04" rain in last hour to take them to the 5th wettest day on record. I see that band of heavy rain over western NJ and the Delmarva, but I doubt that NYC will see its wettest ever day. I am guessing today will end up as the 2nd wettest.
Oceana NAS station now at 29.00" near VA Beach. (982.4 mb)
We've got only a fraction of the rain NYC received here on Long Island. (or, at least where I live.) We keep getting breaks in the rain, and when we do get rain, it's light.

I want to see some downpours, not drizzle.
Average rain rate for the last 3 hrs

Conditions in my area...
Observed at: Saint-Hubert Airport near Montreal, QC... 7:00 PM EDT

Moderate Rain
Temperature..... 4C
Pressure..... 100.9 kPa (1009 mb) (29.8 in.) falling
Visibility..... 6 km
Humidity..... 91 %
Dewpoint..... 2C
WindENE..... 28 km/h

Rain should start to mix with snow in the next 2 hours.
190. V26R
Ambrose Light atthe mouth of NY Harbor showing 988mb with winds gusting to 32 knots
Winds are starting to pick up here in Staten Island also
4 gauges up there around Dr Master's mention already in major flooding.

This link shows The Battery is already experiencing minor flooding, with near by Lodi in Major.
looking at pressures, wind directions, and radar/satellite...the center of this system is is in north central nc...just east of oxford. and its barely moving north...just north of east...and if it continues this track it will go off the coast...

winds here near richmond have def. picked up alot over the last hour...its getting blustery here...and weve had a good bit of rain today as well...

hows everyone else fairing today?
Its up and rising...almost high tide skyepony Link..
center is somewhere between petersburg, va and rocky mount, nc...
This streamguage will be interesting to watch Link
Pressure 984.9 and still falling...
Heavy rain now mixing with snow here...
pressure 981 and falling....windy as hell....direction and intensity just switched and clouds are flying by...think the center is passing just south/southeast of us here in the richmond, va area...
Air pressure here on Cape Cod, MA is at 1005mb and falling steadily. WInds are at 20mph and I believe hurricane force winds can be well expected, and I see an area of rain moving to the north, to the southwest of Cape Cod and this could be the first part of the hurricane force winds or stronger winds. What do you expect the highest winds to be recorded and where will those winds be located.
8pm... st-Hubert Airport, QC near Montreal

Heavy Rain mixing with snow
Temperature..... 1C (-3 from last hour)
Pressure..... 100.9 kPa steady
Visibility..... 4 km
Humidity..... 94 %
Dewpoint..... 1C
Wind NE..... 24 km/h

I was brave enough to get a video from outside and I will show it to all of you soon once it's finished uploading. Check my blog if you wish which i am currently updating.
pressure readings from 980-990 in ct
None, buster
206. cdo
none, buster
Buster, it's nowhere close to hurricane season.......lol nothing is going to form in the Caribbean.
Hi, all. Pretty crummy here in Albany, NY, tho not as bad as I would have thought, with about an inch of slop, 10 mph winds from the north, and exactly 1000 mb and dropping.

But Hutch's water vapor link and the current radar shows there's a big chunk of dry air being drawn up right along the coast near the Carolina's. Won't that inhibit any real growth, even though it's moving out over the water?

Jo
Heavy down pours with Thunder and lightning now in Freehold, no wind.
its not a ware core system...dry air wont affect it like it would a hurricane..
As usual, we got diddly. Maybe 1/10 of an inch. But at least there's cool air already in place..
low must be close, pressure reading of 975mb