WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Wilma's forecast highly uncertain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:41 AM GMT on October 20, 2005

Just a quick update on the latest model runs: The 18Z (2 pm EDT) runs of the GFS and GFDL models have swung back towards Florida, and predict that the Yucatan may only get a quick (but severe) blow. The amount of weakening that might happen with Wilma over the Yucatan for just 12 hours or so is difficult to gauge. Also, there is the possibility of a threat to New England--the latest GFDL model run has Wilma hitting the Cape Cod area as a Category 2 hurricane on Monday night. I'll wait for the 00Z (8pm EDT) runs of the models that will be available in the morning before commenting more. The degree of uncertainty in both the track and intensity forecast of Wilma remains very high. The remainder of my blog from 5pm is below, unchanged.


Hurricane Wilma continues across the western Caribbean towards Mexico as a Category 5 hurricane. The Hurricane Hunters reached the storm at 2:06 pm EDT, and reported a pressure of 892 mb, ten mb higher than the Atlantic record lowest pressure of 882 mb set this morning. The 3:56 pm EDT hurricane eye report showed the same pressure, 892 mb. Peak winds measured at flight level were 141 knots in the southern eyewall, compared to 162 knots measured this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows that the cloud tops have warmed a bit since this morning, and Wilma is a weaker storm--but still a Category 5 capable of catastrophic damage. The eye diameter measured by the hurricane hunters was still a very tiny 5 nm, and an second concentric eyewall with diameter 10 nm has formed. This indicates that Wilma may soon undergo an eyewall replacement cycle, and will weaken to a Category 4 storm.


Figure 1. Computer model tracks for Hurricane Wilma.

Where will Wilma go?
There is now a high degree of uncertainty in the forecast for Wilma. NHC has not adjusted the official forecast much with the 5 pm advisory, other than to slow down Wilma a bit. However, a major shift in the model guidance occurred with the just completed 12Z (8 am) runs, that may force NHC to make major modifications to the official forecast if further model runs continue to show this shift. Three of the top models--the GFS, GFDL, and UKMET models--now show that the trough of low pressure that was expected to pull Wilma sharply northwards and then northeast across Florida is progressing slower than expected, and will not dig as far south. If this forecast verifies, it would be very bad news for Mexico. Wilma may not pass east of Mexico through the Yucatan Channel as originally thought, and may instead make a landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula near Cozumel or Cancun Island on Thursday night or Friday morning, probably as a Category 4 hurricane.

However, this would be very good news for Florida. A long encounter with the Yucatan Peninsula would cause a serious disruption of the hurricane, and make it unlikely that Wilma could affect Florida as a major hurricane. A hit on southwest Florida as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane would be more likely, and the arrival of the hurricane would be delayed until Sunday. So, if I lived in Florida and was thinking about evacuating today, I would wait another day and see what the forecast tomorrow brings. Keep in mind, though, that the NOGAPS model, which is one of the top four models for tracking hurricanes, is still showing that Wilma will pass through the Yucatan Channel and a make landfall in southwest Florida as a major hurricane. The Canadian model is showing this as well. And the worst possible scenario, where Wilma makes a direct hit on Cancun but only spends a few short hours over the Yucatan and does not significantly weaken, is also a possibility.

Conditions on the Yucatan
Here's an email I received from wunderphotographer cleo85 , who is in the Yucatan and took the photo shown below. She has promised to post photos and send reports as her situation permits:

"Here is the Paamul [Yucatan Peninsula] update. After a very cloudy morning we did have some blue sky around 11:00am CDT. Now at 2:00pm CDT the Sky is almost overcast with picturesque clouds. There are a few light showers. We have a light breeze from north with winds what feel more and more warmer. The morning [5am CDT] showed 76 Fahrenheit now we have 88. Paamul is boarding up and will evacuate tomorrow. There is a confusion were to go since some of the newest computer models showing landfall on the Yucatan with a turn around and going back to the Caribbean. I was told the mood in the city of Playa del Carmen changed from almost ignorance two days ago to panic right now. There is no gasoline or diesel anywhere between Cancun and Tulum. Groceries seams to be tight. Batteries are out. There is price poaching going on. The Newspapers do their best to bring the panic up."

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

first

/ftw
11PM in, down to Cat 4.
But seriously, Charlotte county is starting to run out of gas!
Wow. Everybody's gone. Hello out there.

Still very worried about Roatan and Utila off the coast of Honduras. I was communicating with them via internet and telephone today, but as of right now all of that communication is shut down. Nothing to do now but wait and hope we don't have another Mitch. The love of my life is on Utila right now. Utila was destroyed by Mitch. Gulp.
Please forgive my uneducated question, I am new to this hurricane stuff. What is to say that Wilma does not come straight up the gulf and hit the panhandle? Can you explain why such a sharp turn is being forcasted?
Calgal, I will say a prayer tonight
it is sad to see the yucatan and central america suffer..... many will go without any intervention! I feel the suffering! :(
NewFloridian, a trough (thats a southward dip in the Jet Stream) is moving southward now. Such structures deflect storms. I have a hurricane FAQ in the "Tropical Discussion" board at my site: Link
11:00 report still has her going WNW at 8 MPH. Down to 155 sustained, but I think she'll intensify again soon. I think we are still in for it someplace here in Florida and we are so overdue in the Tampa Bay area for a big one.
I have a question for everyone, please help if you have experience with this.

I am scheduled to go on a cruise leaving Tampa tomorrow afternoon and going to Cozumel. Obviously, it is completely unsafe to even think the ship can go in that general area. Yet, the idiots are Carnival are still saying they have no information on itinerary changes. What is likely to happen with this?

I realize these cruise lines don't like to cancel the cruise. God forbid they miss out on their gambling profits for one weekend. But how can they jeopardize the safety and comfort of all their passengers?

Thanks for the help.
DCW,

Actually a trough pulls a storm a ridge deflects. As the trough moves East the storm will follow. Actually I would say more accurately a trough creats a path of lower resistance for the storm to follow.
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

EARLIER REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT WILMA HAD A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 892 MB INSIDE THE 4 N
MI WIDE EYE...ALONG WITH 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 140-150 KT.
SINCE THAT TIME...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME
CLOUD-FILLED. ADDITIONALLY...A 00Z SSM/I OVERPASS SHOWS THAT THE
INNER EYEWALL HAS WEAKENED AS A 40 N MI WIDE OUTER EYEWALL BECOMES
BETTER DEFINED. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED
TO 135 KT. THE NEXT AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE WILMA
AROUND 05Z-06Z.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY WOBBLY 300/7. IN THE SHORT TERM...A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF WILMA SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE ON A
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AFTER
24-36 HR...THE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A POWERFUL DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U. S.. THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW WILMA TO TURN NORTHWARD...WHILE THE STRONGER
TROUGH SHOULD EVENTUALLY RECURVE THE STORM INTO THE WESTERLIES.
THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFDL AND GFS HAVE RETURNED TO THEIR EARLIER
NO-STALL RECURVATURE SCENARIO...THUS INCREASING THE AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS THROUGH 72-96 HR. HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE SUITE OF
GUIDANCE IS SLOWER FOR THE FIRST 96 HR THAN THE EARLIER RUNS. THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT FOR THE FIRST 48
HR...THEN IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM 48-96 HR.
HOWEVER...EVEN THIS SLOWER FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE GUIDANCE.
IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE TRACK IS ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

WILMA SHOULD UNDERGO AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE DURING THE NEXT
12-24 HR. THE FIRST 36 HR OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
THE PREMISE THAT WILMA WILL RE-INTENSIFY WHEN THE CYCLE IS OVER.
THERE IS A CHANCE WILMA COULD WEAKEN MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
BEFORE THE EYEWALL CYCLE ENDS. THE SHIPS MODEL IS FORECASTING A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR ONCE WILMA REACHES THE THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THAT COMBINED WITH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING. THAT BEING SAID...WILMA IS STILL
EXPECTED TO REACH FLORIDA AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. AFTER PASSAGE OVER
FLORIDA...WILMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO SHEAR AND EVEN
COOLER WATER. THERE ARE TWO POSSIBILITIES THAT COULD MAKE LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN THE INTENSITY OF WILMA. THE FIRST IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF LANDFALL OVER YUCATAN OR THE INTERACTION WITH THE
PENINSULA IN THE FORECAST CLOSE APPROACH. A LANDFALL WOULD RESULT
IN A WEAKER STORM...WHILE INTERACTION COULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM MORE
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE SECOND IS POSSIBLE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AND PHASING WITH THE DEEP TROUGH AFTER 96 HR. SHOULD
THIS HAPPEN...WILMA COULD BECOME A POWERFUL STORM EITHER OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OR THE NORTHEASTERN U. S..
CalGal, I feel for ya and I'll be praying he'll be okay.
Thank you dcw. I appreciate you taking the time. I will check out your link. learning about and watching hurricanes is like an addiction.
dcw checked out site, very nice
My wife's mayan tour itinerary originally had her arriving Cancun Thursday morning. To their credit, Peregrine adventures have phoned her and advised her not to come until Saturday.
mcty.... They are not going to cruise into Cozumel in the next few days. Keep calling until you find someone with a brain to explain the situation. I'm sure they have dealt with similar situations before.
newfloridian - From what I've read once Wilma reaches the Gulf waters it will be directed by the westerlies (winds steering the system east). It will be able to pick up speed as a trough or cold front moves eastward. The exact track will be determined by the timing of Wilma reaching the Gulf and the trough moving east. If anyone has a better explanation, please correct me.
Going to sleep now - prayers for everybody
If Wilma hits Florida at a high speed, like NHC says, say about 20mph, does the sustained wind speed get added to the southern eyewall and subtracted from the northern? ie. If it hits with 140mph winds, does the southern side see 160+ and the northern see 120? This is what I think happens, I just want to make sure I am right.
Yes, the forward motion of the storm would be added to the southerly side in a storm approaching/hitting from the west, and deducted from the northen side. The opposite applies to a hurricane hitting the East Coast from offshire.
I'm going to bed, night, and I wish all in the Yucatan luck and hope everybody is prepared.
23. awnm
mcty - I'll bet they change the itinerary to avoid the hurricane areas. May spend more days at sea than originally intended or go to other ports.

I've been on cruises where this has happened. Keep checking with your travel agent or call Carnival. You're right that they won't cancel unless they absolutely have to.
Keep up the good work my people.
Thanks, Hugo. I hope that thing stays south of us. We don't need another eyewall here. My neighborhood ran alongside the southern eyewall of Charley, no calm here, we saw solid winds over 140mph for a good half hour or so. Completely devestaded this community.

g'night
I'm supposed to travel to Orlando on Sunday and arrive at 11:30 AM. Do you guys think the Hurricane is going to track close enough to Orlando to close the airport, or do you think it will stay further south?
Anyone in Miami see Don Noe(Channel 10) show Wilma as a Cat1 when it makes landfall? Where'd he get THAT info?
00Z GFS coming in as I type this...first 78 hrs is up...Yucatan hit, followed by lingering along the Yucatan east coast, drifting slowly southward. Weird.
Following up on that GFS run, there's a chance this storm ends up a replay of sorts of Isidore in 2002. Powerful storm out of NW Carib progged to go northward into Gulf, but stalls out over the Yucatan before resuming its forecasted track. In doing so, it loses (and doesn't regain) its inner core, and ends up a shell of its former self on final landfall.
Tmarohl - A NWS experimental graphic shows that Orlando has a 40% - 50% chance of experiencing tropical storm force winds. The track will determine the impact to Central Florida, but I don't know if planes take off and land during tropical storm conditions. I would think not.
The floater shows a regular, cycloidal wobble of the eye. The weird thing is, this means the eye is actually off-center in the circulation! I have not seen this before.
Okay, more of the GFS 00z is in (126 hr). At about 96 hrs (Sunday night), the storm starts taking off ENE across Western Cuba, then through the Florida Straits on Monday, going just SE of Miami. So, in the end it's further south and much slower than previous runs.
Hecker, theres alot of things about this storm thats not seen before...

Makes me wonder if it wasnt created perhapse...Call me crazy, but what if it was, XD LOL...now that would cause fear a panic.

*is assasinated the next day*

Okay, aside from the silly stuff. Im glad shes died down more. Hopefully she will die down before any worse damage is caused...but then again, the odds are against my hopes, arnt they?
Before I go to bed, let me see if I can get straight what has happened over the lat 24 hours.

1. A tropical cyclone (Wilma) exploded from Category 1/2 strength to Category 5 strength before the sun even came up;

2. It set a new record for lowest core pressure with an eye of less than 2 nmi;

3. A hurricane hunter aircraft was almost lost;

4. Despite the well repeated reframe that hurricanes cannot maintain category 5 strength for very long, this one did all day long, even with its pin-hole eye;

5. That it is in the process of an eye wall replacement cycle, and some here think it is already re-intensifying, without ever dropping below Category 5 strength;
6. By the end of the day the models all appear to be aiming at Perfect Storm II in 5 days;

7. Meanwhile Wilmas future partner in crime was sending tornado warnings up in Oklahoma; and,

8. I did not get any real work done.


Yea, that just about sums it up.
Hecker: its reminiscent of the smaller circulations within the large eye of Ophelia. The cycloidal path appears to be rolling around in a stenograph pattern, like its a marble rolling in a bowl, rather than held in by a something...

Its like a region of weaker pressure gradient. What would you call that? I like this hurricane for the purpose of intrigue, not that its going to kill people. Dang this hurricane looks incredibly delicate, like the hurricane hunters caused to circulation to deteriorate. The radius of cycloidal wobble, I think it should be measured just to see if it measures up to the radius of the new eyewall just for sciences' sake.
Off the subject a little.. Maybe you kind folks could help answer a question I've been pondering for a couple of weeks now. Say we have a few more name storms and hypothetical Hurricane Alpha ravages enough property to have it's name retired. In the future what is the next 22nd named storm? Is Alpha skipped and the 22nd storm becomes Beta? Or is another foreign alphabet used?

Thanks,
Grizz
That is a good Q Grizz! Then we start using the Russian alphabet, followed by Norse ;)
Guess I'l stay in the Northwest where a HEAVY rain is exciting.
Mishnook, I didnt know #3, wow.

Seriously, this has been one awful day for everyone...can't wait to see how tomorow unfolds.
41. KenR
Please pray for my daughter and her new husband as well. They got married Sunday and went straight to Cozumel for their honeymoon. What timing. I am glad their are people paying attention, even if there is nothing to do now but wait. Their was no way for them to evacuate, so they have to ride it out.
KenR

My thoughts are with you and your family. I am sure this will turn into an exciting story they will get to share with their friends.
Is that true snack? I have seen that question before during this season. Never did get a real answer?
just got home from work...I said earlier on lefty's blog she would go accross into the bay of campeachy, am I gonna get it right? is anyone out there?
on the cycle track guidence valid 0000 UTC, which is shown above.....track NGPI is of concern to me and looks to be the worst possible scenerio.....the track bring the storm to florida without prior landfall and so probably CAT3...or 4 effecting the major population centers from Tampa South..the storm would come ashore directly in the middle of this zone....but wat concerns me is after exiting the peninsula the model brings the storm up the caost uneefected by land...and over the warm gulf stream very close to the Jersey Shore, NYC, Long Island and the whole of New England,,,,1938 all over again....isnt this the worst possible track? what is the likelyhood Wilma could take this track?Link
on the cycle track guidence valid 0000 UTC, which is shown above.....track NGPI is of concern to me and looks to be the worst possible scenerio.....the track bring the storm to florida without prior landfall and so probably CAT3...or 4 effecting the major population centers from Tampa South..the storm would come ashore directly in the middle of this zone....but wat concerns me is after exiting the peninsula the model brings the storm up the caost uneefected by land...and over the warm gulf stream very close to the Jersey Shore, NYC, Long Island and the whole of New England,,,,1938 all over again....isnt this the worst possible track? what is the likelyhood Wilma could take this track?Link
Wilma a record-setter, but records scanty -experts

"MIAMI, Oct 19 (Reuters) - The 2005 hurricane season has spawned three of the most intense Atlantic storms on record with Katrina, Rita and now Wilma, fueling the debate over global warming's impact on hurricanes.

Yet even weather experts convinced that global warming is a serious threat caution against blaming climate change.

While Wilma on Wednesday briefly became the most powerful Atlantic hurricane on record in terms of its barometric minimum pressure, that does not mean it is the strongest hurricane ever, they said.

Similarly powerful storms could have occurred in the 1940s and 1950s, said Jeff Masters, chief meteorologist for weatherunderground.com and a former Hurricane Hunter flight meteorologist.

"Back then we didn't have satellites and we didn't have aircraft reconnaissance. So it's quite possible that a lot of those hurricanes had an 882-millibar pressure. We just weren't around there to see," Masters said."

Looks like Dr. Masters is getting famous! :)
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
305 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...AFTER ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL CHANGES EARLY
THIS MORNING...FORECAST OF WILMA IS STILL MUCH LESS THAN CERTAIN.
ONE PARTICULAR FEATURE THAT PERHAPS THE MODELS MAY BE HAVING
PROBLEMS WITH IS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF WILMA. SEEMS
THIS RIDGE HAS BEEN DELAYING THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF WILMA...AND
PERHAPS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BREAKING DOWN THIS RIDGE TOO SOON. IN
ANY EVENT...00Z GFS HAS HAD A SIGNIF CHANGE THIS RUN...NOW MOVING
WILMA HALF WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND STALLING IT
THERE UNTIL LATE SATURDAY. BY THEN...THE LONG WAVE TROF THAT IS
FORECAST TO SWEEP WILMA EAST AND NORTH WILL HAVE HAD PLENTY OF TIME
TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE ERN US...WHICH WOULD THUS KEEP WILMA ON A
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AS IT MOVES ENE. THE NAM AND GFS ARE FAIRLY
SIMILAR WITH THIS SCENARIO...AS WELL AS SEVERAL OTHER MODELS...WHICH
GENERALLY SHOW WILMA`S TRACK STAYING FARTHER SOUTH ONCE IT DOES TAKE
THAT RIGHT TURN AND START MOVING ENE. HAVING SAID ALL THIS...IF THIS
IS INDEED A TREND THAT FUTURE RUNS STICK TO...THAT WOULD BE GOOD
NEWS FOR THE TAMPA BAY AREA. HOWEVER THIS IS NOT THE FIRST TIME
WE`VE SEEN BIG MODEL CHANGES (ESP ON THE 00Z CYCLES)...AND AS SUCH I
WOULDN`T LET THE GUARD DOWN FOR OUR AREA...ESP GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY
OF THE MID/UPR PATTERN THAT IS TAKING SHAPE.

throughout the past 400 years there are records of bad-ass hurricanes, global warming is not THE major factor but you can bet it will get the blame
global warming or no global warming....we all must work to make the earth cleaner....the earth has warmed a degree or two and look at thhe changes ... we are pushing the warming along by polluting the atmosphere...yes the warming is a cycle...but we are not helping...
Hey I'm not against environmentalism, how do you explain the summer ice retreating further and further north each year...I just don't like people who preach that crap for political reasons thats all...we are all to blame!
good morning... just woke up... trying to read through the blogs,but my eyes are too fuzzy. So what is going on with this thing and why have the models shifted again
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/show.html

on the cycle track guidence valid 0000 UTC, which is shown above.....track NGPI is of concern to me and looks to be the worst possible scenerio.....the track bring the storm to florida without prior landfall and so probably CAT3...or 4 effecting the major population centers from Tampa South..the storm would come ashore directly in the middle of this zone....but wat concerns me is after exiting the peninsula the model brings the storm up the caost uneefected by land...and over the warm gulf stream very close to the Jersey Shore, NYC, Long Island and the whole of New England,,,,1938 all over again....isnt this the worst possible track? what is the likelyhood Wilma could take this track?
on the cycle track guidence valid 0000 UTC, which is shown above.....track NGPI is of concern to me and looks to be the worst possible scenerio.....the track bring the storm to florida without prior landfall and so probably CAT3...or 4 effecting the major population centers from Tampa South..the storm would come ashore directly in the middle of this zone....but wat concerns me is after exiting the peninsula the model brings the storm up the caost uneefected by land...and over the warm gulf stream very close to the Jersey Shore, NYC, Long Island and the whole of New England,,,,1938 all over again....isnt this the worst possible track? what is the likelyhood Wilma could take this track?
nj, my eyes are still a little too fuzzy to focus on that much reading, and i am not a meteoroligist but from what i CAN see is more of the models like the hitting the north east scenerio
I really don't like that one either (family up there)
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2005

AS ANTICIPATED...WILMA IS GOING THROUGH THE WEAKENING PHASE OF AN
EYEWALL CYCLE. THIS IS BASED ON MICROWAVE DATA AND OBSERVATIONS
FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WHICH REPORTED EXCELLENT RADAR
PRESENTATION OF CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS OF 4 AND 40 N MI IN DIAMETER
RESPECTIVELY. THE PLANE ALSO OBSERVED TWO MAXIMUM WIND BANDS...ONE
WITH WINDS OF 121 KNOTS...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 903 MB MEASURED
BY A SONDE...BUT WITH 23 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE. THE PRESSURE COULD
THEN BE A FEW MILLIBARS LOWER. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT AS SPECTACULAR AS IT WAS 12 TO 18 HOURS
AGO AND IN FACT...THE EYE IS OBSCURED AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED DOWN TO 130 KNOTS. THIS MAY BE AN OVERESTIMATE
SINCE THE MAXIMUM WINDS REPORTED SO FAR ARE 121 KNOTS. HOWEVER...WE
ARE ASSUMING THAT THE PLANE HAS NOT SAMPLED THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION.

WE DO NOT KNOW EXACTLY WHEN AND IF THE STRENGTHENING PHASE OF THE
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WILL BEGIN. SINCE IT IS ASSUMED THAT IT
WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...RE-INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE THE
FORMATION OF A LARGE EYE LATER TODAY. THEREAFTER...A PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
THERE WILL BE INCREASING WIND SHEAR. WILMA SHOULD THEN BEGIN A
STEADY WEAKENING TREND.

THE EXPECTED NORTHWEST TURN HAS NOT MATERIALIZED YET AND THE AVERAGE
MOTION OF WILMA IS STILL 295 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE
NORTHWEST MOTION SHOULD BEGIN SOON AS THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL UNITED STATES ADVANCES RAPIDLY EASTWARD. THIS WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS OVER THE GULF OE MEXICO AND WILMA
SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH TOWARD THE WEAKNESS. THE
SHORT-WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AND BRING THE WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH
ENOUGH TO CARRY WILMA TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. BEFORE THE WESTERLIES
BECOME ESTABLISHED...THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK.
WILMA WILL LIKELY MEANDER FOR A DAY OR SO OVER NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
OR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BEFORE TAKING OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS IN
A TYPICAL RECURVATURE PATTERN.

TRACK GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE USUAL VARIABILITY BUT THE OVERALL
MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP WILMA MOVING VERY SLOWLY NEAR OR OVER
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND THEN SHARPLY TURNING
THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. IT IS FAIR TO SAY THAT BY DAY
FIVE...WILMA SHOULD BEGIN TO ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
BY JUDGING THE EXPANSION OF THE WIND FIELD AND THE FRONTAL LIKE
MOISTURE PATTERN IN MODELS.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0900Z 18.3N 85.0W 130 KT
12HR VT 20/1800Z 18.9N 85.8W 135 KT
24HR VT 21/0600Z 20.0N 86.5W 145 KT
36HR VT 21/1800Z 21.0N 87.0W 145 KT
48HR VT 22/0600Z 22.0N 86.5W 125 KT
72HR VT 23/0600Z 24.0N 84.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 24/0600Z 27.0N 80.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 25/0600Z 37.1N 70.0W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA HEADING TOWARD THE YUCATAN
PENSINSULA...FOR NOW....

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO PUNTA ALLEN ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO
CELESTUN.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN
TO CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO
SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES...
315 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS STILL MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13
KM/HR WITH SOME WOBBLES OF THE EYE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...240
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES...370 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 900 MB...26.58 INCHES.

IF THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES PARTICULARLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO
8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN
ISLAND...AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HONDURAS THROUGH TODAY.

REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...18.3 N... 85.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 900 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM
CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

58. dcw
There goes the eye! Cycle almost complete.
Who on earth is going to "seed" Wilma!! and why will a swipe of the Yucatan, which is narrow and flat and she will pass over in a couple of hours, drop her from a strong 4 (or probably 5 before she hits) down to a 2 - absolutely no logic behind that as an idea. Hurricanes crossing Florida, which fatter than the Yucatan (like Katrina and Andrew) never lost more than a notch...
Following up on that GFS run, there's a chance this storm ends up a replay of sorts of Isidore in 2002. Powerful storm out of NW Carib progged to go northward into Gulf, but stalls out over the Yucatan before resuming its forecasted track. In doing so, it loses (and doesn't regain) its inner core, and ends up a shell of its former self on final landfall.

I can dig that!
Stormchaser, I hope your scenario plays out. I hope you are serious in your statement also.

Then she will
begin to move North and Encounter Heavy Shear in the Gulf.
Then she will be seeded heavily and by the time she gets
near the Keys she will be practicly In Pieces.
I wouldn't state with certainty that Wilma will stall over the Yucatan and weaken significantly at this point. Indeed, worst case, she may stall east of the Yucatan and possibly start a north drift and strengthen back to a CAT 5 tonight.
Steering currents entering the Gulf west of the Yucatan are beginning to oppose any further west motion. We'll see how far west Wilma gets. I'll be watching her speed and direction during the day, and continue preparing for the worst. If she stalls over the Yucatan I'll be happy, but worst case is we could still see hurricane conditions over much of the south/central Florida peninsula sometime on Sunday or Monday, then I'll be prepared.

Read Steve Gregory's latest blog on how the 18Z models were an "aberration".
By the way the last few frames show that it APPEARS to be moving more northward now,if it misses the yucatan or does not slow down greatly,the tampa bay area I believe will be highest likelyhood IF it does not stay over the yucatan for long or slow down,this is partly to do with the the high with will slow it's right turn,alllowing it to go farther north before cutting right,many variables right now,lets just wait and see,if it makes it into the gulf without trouble it will be clear that wilma will prabably make landfall not far south of tampa,maybe sarasota in that case.
Right now it is a wait and see situation as I said there are many possibilities and complications..........
Yes a large 40 mi wide eye has formed in replace of the new one,wilma has a large windfield and will only likely get larger,a large portion of the western coast of florida will feel at least gusts to hurricane strength,but areas even north of tampa likely t.s. force winds as tropical storm force winds go out 230 mi. to the north and also east of the eye.
67. OGal
Hi all, Calgal, my thoughts and prayers are with you. I think the worst part of hurricanes is the waiting and watching. Some people do not have the need to know what is going on, but I do. The "Charley Scenario" is in my mind and I will not be at ease until Wilma makes landfall. Here in Orlando I plan to still be ready, pool furniture picked up and all outside stuff in the garage (plants ect.) We have a generator, small room airconditioner, lots of water, and will have ice too. Does all this make me feel better--no!! South Florida, my thoughts are with you! Please take this very seriously and listen, listen, listen. Changes can take place in just an hour. Let's hope next week we will all be able to say---WE MADE IT!
Hurricane Wilma, what will she do?
Obviously not what she's suppose to do...
The computer models can't figure her plan,
As she keeps moving towards the Yucatan.
See people like me have plans too,
I need to know when she'll move through!
My state is a target, or so they say...
Now maybe she'll come through on a Monday?
So I'll hop in my car and drive away...
Vacation, come home, and watch her play.

Good morning...going to work :-)
Link
I always want this link at work and only have it at home..don't bother now, nothing to see yet...
Agreed Jedkins, it is very complicated, especially since the
steering currents around Wilma are weakening for now. I
would think even the frictional effects at the beginning of
interaction with the Yucatan could pull her north, given a
very weak steering environment. The more north she gets,
the more likely she will begin to get caught up in the first
weake trough. I'll be watching to see if she gets north of
20N before she hits 87.5 west (if she evven goes that far
west). Then it will be just a glancing blow at the Yucatan
at best.

OGal - Very wise to be prepared. More towards the south of
Orlando seems to be the likely path, but the winds will be
spread out and possibly very strong over a wide area. Also,
there is still a significant possibility the eye could pass
over Orlando, we are not out of the cone by any measures.
Nice poetry stormydee, and also LOL. A little humor is great in stressful times like these.
Good morning everyone. At work and just caught up on your postings for the past 12 hours.
Stormy, loved your poem!
Looks like a lot of watching to do over the next few days.
Will be lurking and working and trying to post when I can.
Keep the info coming. Thanks,
Gamma
Good morning, all. Just got up and checked out the models. I see that the NGPS, A90E, and A98E all have Wilma coming right through Charlotte Harbor. Does anyone have any feedback on the reliability of these models? Thanks.
I see that the GFDL has now corrected to where it was yesterday.
Good morning!

Doesn't look like much has changed since last night. My pollyanna wishes for a fish storm just don't seem to be materializing.... oh well...

Gotta get my girl to school so I'll check back later. If you haven't already, check out my registry of Floridians on my blog (click my name). I plan to create a directory of floridians by county so we know where everyone is when Mean ol' Wilma comes through.
I know Wilma is not predicted to hit the TX Gulf Coast, but I'm still holding my breath.
I don't want to see her hit any place at all, but that's just wishful thinking.
I'd still like to know what makes the experts so certain she will not touch the TX Gulf Coast.
If it's the cold front that is supposed to be pushing through, I'll believe that when I see it. Temps will be in the 90's here today. Our gulf waters are still very warm here.
KenR, if you're willing to post your email address here, I will email you Cozumel info. I have many contacts by phone on the island and will be talking with them through the storm as I did through Emily in July. I can update you on post Wilma conditions if you like.

Posted By: KenR at 6:21 AM GMT on October 20, 2005.
Please pray for my daughter and her new husband as well. They got married Sunday and went straight to Cozumel for their honeymoon. What timing. I am glad their are people paying attention, even if there is nothing to do now but wait. Their was no way for them to evacuate, so they have to ride it out.
Good morning all.
Looks like we may have a pretty good weekend on FLA.
Gonna go camping at Daytona.
Everyone stay safe
Jim
cat1cane - Here is a link with a table of model forecast
performance comparisons for Wilma:

Link

Short answer - GFDL and GFDT have performed a lot better
than A90E and A98E out at 96 hours so far. I didn't see
NGPS in the table, but there is an NGPI model that is
comparable to GFDL and GFDT in accuracy with Wilma so far.


This doesn't really answer your question about "general
reliability", and the statistical significance of the
numbers in this table is unknown, but at least you get an
idea how well the various models are predicting the path of
this particular storm thusfar.
Oops, I need to correct my statement above, I was just looking down the 96 hours column on the table. NGPI doesn't perform nearly as well as GLDL and GFDT for other time frames, the good peformance of NGPI out at 96 hours looks like a statistical anomaly.
Good morning all. Another day of uncertainty. "WHEN WILL THE MADNESS END!!!!"
and let me also correct "GLDL" to GFDL above (sigh).

(Please plan on adding an edit function, blog administrators)
Was hoping for a change in the track this morning. No such luck. Things are crazy here. People are in a panic.
Here's an excerpt from the 7 am CDT NHC advisory. It's going to be a nailbiter of a day.

AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES...
285 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...12 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 145 MPH...230
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES...370 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 910 MB...26.87 INCHES.
CC, Stormy et al.. good morning... this waiting, is the pits.. I'm going to have to restock on supplies if keeps going into next week..
good morning palmbeacher.....the next few days should be interesting.
THIS STORM IS STARTING TO PISS ME OFF...DOES ANYONE NOTICE ITS PRETTY MUCH MOVING JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST NOW... THIS RIDGE IS NOT WEAKENING AT ALL..
WV loop Link
Hey everyone, I know we are all focused on Wilma right now but I just took a look at the wider Atlantic. Do we have "Alpha" forming west of the Leeward Islands? Looks like a wave getting a curving outflow? Watch the loop for the past few hours....Any comments?
seflagamma,

According to the NWS Tropical Outlook, they are noting the storm you speak off, however they are not expecting development at this time. (ie it could become a tropical system but not for the near future ie next 24 hours)
well, I can play cause the boss is away...
suppose to do payroll...but he hid the timecards...goofball..
Now we play the wait and see when she will come our way...while I wait... :-)
Goodmorning everyone. I hope everyone had a nice night. I was worried she do a number last night like she did the night before, but she didn't (thank goodness...)
Morning,
Stupid question. Im new at this. On the wv will the red dry air protect most of fla or will the storm push up thru it?
Punk, check the link Dude just sent. If you put a mark where the loop starts and see where it ends you will see it is almost a NW movement now, not as much west as yesterday. I hope it is starting to make the turn. A few extra days of this will be very tiring! I want it to make it's move, do what it has to do, and move on!
Orion, thanks for your input. good to know nothing more for the immediate future. Gamma
I personally would settle with a western movement into Mexico, meander a bit, weaken, then slide over Cuba on its way NE - bringing nice rainshowers to FL. Sorry to the countries to the south, but my vested interest is in FL at the moment.
weathergirl, the red represents the high pressure that is in control right now. That high is expected to break down, thus allowing Wilma to make her move to the NW and eventually to the NE
morning all..
so my question to all the east coast floridians from palm beach county through treasure coast.. to shutter today or not to shutter? what do you guys thinks
ldyav, shuttering going on, I will get most of it done by Sat. morning. Have several houses to take care of.
morning stormy...I guess we are playing the 'wait and see what Wilma wants to do' game
LdyAvolon, I'm in Broward County, south of your question area. I am going to want to shutter up, if it even looks like a Cat2 or higher hitting the west coast. Even if it hits north of me, the south side is the dirty side. If it is in the South, the Everglades does nothing to really slow down a storm (i.e. Irene). If it hits below the Keys as a 1 or 2, I will be on the good side and probably will not shutter.
Hope this helps.
ok gotta work, check in later :-)
The storm is still too far out to make a reasonable prediction. The "cone of doom" is is still too large. We'll know a lot more when she starts to make the turn.
thanks palmbeacher..what's the last you've heard? TCpalm news said to expect cat 3 winds by saturday with squalls by tomorrow afternoon
Thank you weather dude. I live in Venice south of Sarasota but pretty close to Pt Charlotte. We had planned our vacation this week. WE just dont know if we should go or stay. Its hard to sit here and not know. If it is nothing for our area than I want to go on our vacation!
thanks gamma.i think we'll go ahead and shutter today.better safe than sorry right.plus we've been getting afternoon thunderstorms anyways this week.up here in port st lucie we already have yards half under water
Additional, if it were up to me entirely, I would shutter every time, but I need my husband to do it (with help from grown Son or neighbor) and I have to pick my battles for these things. He would not shutter at all if I did not throw a fit about these things. We have prepared for so many storms over the years never get more than tropical force winds (which can be very messy) and he is convenced Broward County will never have a really bad hit. I on the other hand, totally prepare each time I need to do so.
Hi all... my she's being difficult today!
weathergirl....no one will know exactly where she will go until she starts to make her turn
looks like shes slowing down a bit to me the last few hours...what do you guys think??..hmm
LdyAvalon,

Nice Alias
thanks orion
112. wxfan
Link

In the last two frames, Wilma appears to be englongating towards the North and South. This could mean a turn to the NW, NNW or N is imminent.

The Yucatan may well be spared the worst of it. This is probably a good thing, since the eyewall phase is finished and a new eye is showing up. The colder cloud tops are plentiful on the South side of the storm, as well. When that wraps around we could be back up to CAT 5.
Wish she would just make up her mind!
wx - I noticed the ellipitcal shape, also - but was wondering if my eyes were playing tricks. A strengthening storm is certainly possible over the next 12 hours or so. Though, at this point, I'm still thinking a landfall on the Yucatan.
Can I make a little point here? No one is talking about how fast Wilma will be moving when she hits FL!!! If you live in FL and might possibly be in the path of this thing, I would emplore you to read my blog.

My Weather Blog
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/dracko19/show.html
morning Mandy..and yes she is being difficult!!
wx..I saw that, and i think she will start moving NW and even NNW later today
dracko - You have a very valid point that the NHC has briefly touched upon. Wilma may be hauling butt when she comes at FL - giving people who waited til the last minute - not enough time to get out of dodge. Kudos to Monroe County for at least getting the evac underway for the Keys yesterday. All the more reason Wilma needs to get over the Yucatan if FL is to stand a chance of being spared.

One last comment though... Wilma is not the strongest hurricane seen by modern man. She ranks only as #10 on the strongest storms in history.
morning everyone, I am working and trying to keep up at the same time. Ldyav, they are saying we will get tropical force winds Late Sat. early Sunday. At 2 am Mon morning they have it directly over Palm beach co. or in that area. Yipppeee
Looks like Wilma's gonna give FL an extra day to prepare...hey, at least this weekend won't be a total washout!
I may have mentioned this yesterday, but my concern is Lake
Okeechobee. I don't think it can handle a 3 coming over it. Anyone else thinking about this?
Tampa Steve,
At least with the extra day I'll have satellite to watc h football lol...Speaking of football they haven't cancelled the dolphins game yet. Wonder when that will happen
Good Morning All!

Palmbeacher - I agree with you, but I really haven't heard much about it...hopefully, someone is thinking about it....
LdyAvalon ,

check your email
Does Masters really think Wilma could hit New England as a CAT2?
That's interesting.
LdyAvalon ,

check your email
telegon- STILL sticking with that Apalachee Bay forecast (I'm honestly wondering since I live up here)

:-)
vbnative, I think the Water management is concerned from what I heard yesterday. It's really scary if you think about what could happen.
i heard on the radio driving home yesterday that they lowered the levels in lake o and think everything will be fine.. i know all the spillways in port st lucie are wide open..just hopefully we won't have rain like we did yesterday in the days before the storm
here's an article about Lake o and what they are saying
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/palmbeach/sfl-ppflood20oct20,0,3940566.story?coll=sfla-news-palm
Just wanted to jump in real quick while I had a second from work.......I just looked at the IR satellite.....the max winds should be down to 120MPH at the next advisory....dry air has mixed in to the center......the winds are down...they are not at 150mph.......the milibars should go up also.....probably around 930...........check back later.......
Palmbeacher - it sure is scary...they talked about what could happen more after Katrina then I have heard since Wilma became a threat to the area. Doesn't make much sense to me.
My firm opinion is that this storm will hit the Yucatan and basiclly die, but I just heard that Cantore is headed to Ft. Myers... so I'm probably screwed.
get the heck out of Ft. Myers!!
dry air??..umm, think thats the eye itself man... shes just having a difficult time getting the inner eyewall to completely dimminish... should be another 3-4 hours b4 her eye becomes more pradominent...then she may strengthen a bit..
Good Morning to everyone , I see the storm is still going to South FL and everybody needs to have as much done as possible to be ready for Wilma...

Life is to short to take any chances... You can replace your house but you can't replace your life...
If Cantore is going to Fort Myers, I am outta here!
Dang- they packed him up QUICK after his broadcasts last night then.
Wilma is in a "replacement cycle of the eyewall phase".....but if you look at the IR loop.....it clearly shows dry air moving around the center......most replacement cycles do not have dry air involved.......all you would have is deep red circulating around and around......I agree that she should re-develop a good eye and a general good overall presentation.....and restrengthen......but the winds are down.....they may not acknowledge that big of a drop....because it will probably come back up......so really who would know but them.....
jeff has a new blog.........