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Wilma's formation marks busiest hurricane season ever

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:00 PM GMT on October 17, 2005

The historic Hurricane Season of 2005 now has the distinction of being the busiest ever. Wilma's formation this morning gives 2005 21 named storms, equaling the mark set in 1933. With over six weeks still left in hurricane season, that mark will likely be surpassed.

After struggling for two days as a tropical depression, Wilma finally put together a sustained, intense burst of deep convection this morning that propelled her to tropical storm strength. This convective burst is only on the south side of the center of circulation, and the storm still has a long way to go before attaining hurricane status. Dry air is intruding on the northwest side, and the upper level outflow is established only on the east side of the storm. Still, the overall satellite signature is rather ominous and impressive, with a large envelope of thickening clouds on the eastern side of the storm. The wind shear is still very low--about five knots, and expected to stay low. The last hurricane hunter mission left the storm at 4:30 pm EDT Sunday, so the exact strength of the storm is not known at this point. There is not another mission scheduled until 2 pm EDT today. The NOAA jet is scheduled to make its first flight Tuesday afternoon.

The forecast guidance still predicts that this will be Hurricane Wilma by Wednesday. Wilma will spend the next three days in a low-shear environment with water temperatures of 30 C (86 F), which should allow intensification into at least a Category 2 storm, perhaps even a Category 3. Wilma reminds me of Rita, which spent about three days trying to organize in the Bahamas before finally solidifying its inner core and rapidly intensifying. This storm may behave similarly.


Figure 1. Computer model tracks for Wilma.

Steering currents are expected to remain weak the next two days, and some erratic motion is possible. All of the forecast models predict a generally west or west-northwest motion over the next two days. However, this morning's southerly motion at 5 mph is something none of the forecast models have called for. This gives me some concern about this storm severely impacting Honduras and its neighboring Central American countries, particularly Guatemala, which is still reeling from the impact of Hurricane Stan. As Wilma grows in size, a continued southward motion may allow it to start pulling in a deep layer of moisture from the Pacific Ocean, which would trigger heavy rains over the regions of Guatemala and El Salvador hardest hit by Stan. These rains would probably be in the 3 - 5 inch range--nowhere near the devastating 15 - 25 inches seen from Stan, but still high enough to trigger new mudslides on the destabilized slopes of the steep mountainsides.

The computer models have been having huge difficulties with a weak trough of low pressure over the U.S. that may be able to pull Wilma northwards. Last night's 00Z (8pm) models runs of the five models we plot on our computer model tracking chart all failed to properly initialize this trough, calling for it to be weaker than is really is. This resulted in a set of model tracks with a much further west track for Wilma, bringing her into Belize or the Yucatan later in the week. This morning's 06Z (2am EDT) runs of the GFDL and GFS model did properly initialize this trough, and these new model runs now indicate a sharp turn to the northwest and north across western Cuba. Given that the models are not currently handling the southerly motion of the storm, I would be hesitant to believe this forecast yet. All the computer models were calling for a similar northward track for Hurricane Mitch in October 1998, and it ended up wandering south and getting stuck off of the coast of Honduras. However, a second much stronger low pressure system currrently bringing rain to southern California is expected to move east this week and push a trough far enough south to pull the storm northwards later in the week, if the current trough can't do the job. The west coast of Florida still appears likely to receive a hit from Wilma. The timing and severity of this blow are impossible to call at this point until Wilma starts her northwestward turn.

Elsewhere in the tropics, nothing else is happening. I'll be back with a update this afternoon about 4pm, when the latest set of model guidance will be in and the Hurricane Hunters will have visited the storm.

Stan revisited
The official death toll from Hurricane Stan in Guatemala is 654, with 830 people missing. Another 133 people have died in Mexico, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Honduras, making Stan one of the 30 deadliest hurricanes in history. Over 3.5 million Guatemlans have been affected by the storm, with nearly 5,000 homes destroyed and hundreds of thousands damaged. Many corn, sesame and sorghum crops along the south coast were been destroyed, and Guatemala will need extensive long-term aid to recover from this immense disaster. The Guatemalan Red Cross has made available a way to donate online via the Active network (www.active.com). With the earthquake disaster in Pakistan and Hurricane Katrina competing for attention, donations are urgently needed in Guatemala.


Figure 2. View of the Lake Atitlan region of Guatemala, looking south towards the Pacific Ocean. The circulation of Hurricane Stan pulled a deep layer of moist air off of the Pacific Ocean, which triggered heavy rains of 15 - 25 inches. A huge mudslide roared down the slope of the Toliman volcano and buried the town of Panabaj, killing over 400 Guatemalans. Note the brownish deforested areas on the slopes of the Toliman volcano; the lack of vegetation on the slopes contributed to many of the mudslides from this disaster.


Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Good morning all! Looks to be an interesting week.
I am number 2.. Yea
I don't particularly like the NHC's graphics this morning. Surprised those haven't made it to CNN...I guess they may have...I am not near a TV.
Where do people think Alpha will form, I think we going to get aleast that far if not more of the Greek letters..
Morning again.
OK BLOGGERS HERE U GO THE LATEST MODEL RUNS


Image hosted by Photobucket.com


Here she comes
hi folks,
i guess "it ain't over till its over" really applies to this year's hurricane season! if anyone is interested, i have some links on my blog (My Links) to some on-line sites for supplies.
Odds are against the West coast.
Thanks for model FTLPunk. It'll probably be a while yet before CNN, MSSNBC & Fox on the right shift tracks. Since the NHC is slower/more conservative to adjust it's official track, most new services won't start the "hype".
Great, not only do I live in Tampa, but I am scheduled to go on a cruise to Cozumel this weekend. I have a feeling this storm is going to impact both areas quite intensely.
That southward motion is bizarre. I wonder how much it will change the next set of model runs..... Needless to say, I am going out sometime before Wednesday to buy a few sheets of plywood at the Home Depot in Brandon before people flip out over this storm.
good morning again...got lost in the shuffle to the new blog lol
Morning all. That's quite a dramatic shift for the models. These late season carribean storms are a real pill. Anyone been around long enough to remember Gordon (94)? I was hoping that some of the models maybe had a handle on this one for a change, but as is typical this time of year.... NOT! I haven't seen this many flip-flops in one place since the last time I went to North Miami Beach: Link
OK THIS IS REAL INTERESTING EVERYONE CHECK THIS GFDL MODEL OUT IT SHOWS THE WIND FORECAST ALSO...

Link
Does anyone have experience with Carnival cruise line? I am scheduled to leave from Tampa to Cozumel this weekend. Will they cancel the trip entirely?
LOL Subtropic. I damn near decorated my flat panel LCD with Coke via the nostrils, thanx!
sub, I remember Gordon...that was one of the strangest tracks that I have ever seen
Opps. Sorry about that nash.
Opps = Oops.
I made it over here- finally. :-) Hi again!

Orion- what's your take on this?
wow punk, that wind field really speads out...large area affected
No problem man. I am always up for a good chuckle. Anyways, this one looks like a west coast of florida storm as each run comes in.
Subtropic, morning to ya. Whats your take on this puppy?
Trouper - my take on this one is to stock an ample supply of Zantac 150 and prepare for a week of serious indigestion. I still think Florida. If it keeps moving south, I may start getting that Irene feeling again. You being where you are, I would start preparing to get prepared if I were you.
Good morning!!
FtLauderdalepunk and others!!~
It's offical we have a Wilma and a historic hurricane season on hand. Who'd a thought we'd be seeing this because I'd bet many of us were not around in the 30's.

Wilma has ::huge:: potential to be another devistating storm and this drift south is only temporary. The Bams and GFDL are in agreement this morning and you all know that isn't a good thing. Still lots of real estate and time before she threatens the US.

We will be prepared in Central Florida..
JenD
And good morning.
I really hope that Wilma does not come across central fl....I hate having to put up shudders on 26 windows!!!!
Wow. 26 windows? That sucks. It would also make an excellent song title. I'll let you know.
MC
My sister was sceduled to go on a Carnival cruise while Dennis was brushing by the coast.
The cruise line insisted the cruise would sail and told her if they didn't show up they would lose their money.
So they went and sat in port for 36 hours while the storm passed by.
It was fairly windy here however she told me the ship was tied down tight and did not rock at all.
I would suppose if the storm was comming direcly into the area they might cancel, but if it comes close they probably wont.
It's going to be a game time decision by the cruise line.
Good luck, hope the storm stays far away.
Out of those, 6 of them are second floor windows. Song title huh? Can't wait to hear that.
Perhaps we'll make it up to Gamma--or as I prefer to call it, "The Great Gazoo!"

Wilmaaaa!!!! Yabba-dabba-destruction!
OK PEOPLE PUNK IS COMIN AT U WITH MORE GRAPHICS THAT U WANT TO SEE.. NOT JUST HEAR PEOPLE MAKE PREDICTIONS...THIS IS THE GFS MAP IN 138 HOURS


Image hosted by Photobucket.com


Hey, subtropic!
Thanks TB58. I have heard the also divert the ship if needed, but that doesn't seem like such a safe strategy to me. Doesn't surprise me that all they care about is their profit.
LOOK at the cloud tops....wow....very impressive....this could be a Hurricane today!!!!!
So are we warning all of the Gulf coast of florida or just from about Tampa southwards?
Hi Palmbeacher. Is my generator thing not working anymore?
I DONT THINK THE NHC WILL HOP ON THE MODEL BAND WAGON JUST YET IM EXPECTING A SLIGHT SHIFT ON THE TRACK TO THE EAST AT 11 BUT THEN AT 5 MAJOR SHIFT OF THE TRACK
Looks like another west coast Fl. storm.
mandy, I would say that the entire gulf coast of Fl needs to keep an eye on this.
anyone care to predict when the storm wilma will begin to move more northward and quit its southern movement?
Sub, I am thinking that you need to go out and buy something else.
Perhaps we're out of the woods... but then again, like has been said... lots of real estate twixt here and there. ;-)
I was afraid you were gonna say that!
ANOTHER PUNK EXCLUSIVE 11AM IS IN


Image hosted by Photobucket.com


Mandy, weatherdude, What happend on Saturday???? I have been so wrapped up in F'ball this weekend that I didn't even know we had a storm until this morning. Playing catch up now.
Not sure windcast, but that's definitely going to be the determining factor on where she hits IMHO. As we all know, a slight shift either way has mucho impacts on different areas.
I'm holding out for more dry air to intrude and disrupt the storm mechanics. No one needs another 'cane now.
that track looks very dangerous FtLauder
Hi Palmbeacher- I didn't get a chance to watch the game, but I hear it wasn't that VA played so well- we just sucked that bad. lol. Go figure.

Yeah, I didn't know about the storm until late yesterday cause I've been so busy.
Reckon it depends on how fast that trough moves, huh?
Reckon it depends on how fast that trough moves, huh?
Mandy, if this storm falls apart like FSU did during the game, nobody will have to worry about it. It was bad. Be glad you didn't see it.
TROPICAL STORM WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2005

THE DEVELOPMENT TREND THAT WE HAVE BEEN ANTICIPATING FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS IS UNDERWAY. DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING MAINTAINED VERY NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...WITH BANDING FEATURES
DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T3.0/45 KT...AND A QUIKSCAT
PASS AT 12Z SUGGESTS WINDS ARE ALSO 40-45 KT. THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 40 KT...AND I EXPECT
STRONGER WINDS WHEN THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARRIVES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
CONTINUED STRENGTHENING AND THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.

WILMA DROVE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT BUT A WESTWARD COMPONENT SEEMS TO
HAVE RETURNED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 235/4.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN EXTRAORDINARILY INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO
RUN AND THERE IS PRESENTLY A HUGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. WHAT IS
MOST PUZZLING IS THAT THE MODELS THAT BEST ANTICIPATED THE
SOUTHWARD MOTION OVERNIGHT...THE GFDL AND THE GFS...ARE WAY OUT
THERE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH A TRACK
OVER WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF TAKE WILMA INTO VARIOUS PARTS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THERE ARE IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT
OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN THESE
MODELS THAT IS AFFECTING THE ABILITY OF WILMA TO CONNECT WITH THE
WESTERLIES NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE IT IS
TEMPTING TO ADJUST THE TRACK TO THE RIGHT BASED ON THE RECENT
CHANGES WITH THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS...THE FACT THAT THE 6Z RUNS OF
BOTH MODELS WERE INITIALIZED A BIT TOO FAR NORTH MAY MEAN THAT THEY
ARE TOO FAST WITH THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO. FOR NOW...I HAVE MADE
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. CLEARLY...CONFIDENCE AT
THE LONGER RANGES IS UNUSUALLY LOW. WHILE THE SOUTHWARD MOTION
OVERNIGHT NOW REQUIRES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
HONDURAS...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN TRACK AS WELL AS THE SIZE OF
THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE...IT IS A LITTLE PREMATURE TO LOWER THE WATCH
AND WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/1500Z 16.3N 80.0W 40 KT
12HR VT 18/0000Z 16.2N 80.6W 50 KT
24HR VT 18/1200Z 16.3N 81.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 19/0000Z 16.5N 82.6W 70 KT
48HR VT 19/1200Z 17.0N 83.7W 80 KT
72HR VT 20/1200Z 18.5N 85.5W 90 KT
96HR VT 21/1200Z 20.0N 86.5W 95 KT
120HR VT 22/1200Z 22.5N 87.5W 95 KT


Yes, it would be best if this thing just kept goin West right into southern mexico before it gets stronger! I'd hate to see a florida landfall with everyone thinking the season was darn near over, buckle up all!
Anyone want a link to the storm floater for Wilma? Link . In this run, the 6th frame is blank. Just click on the 6th green box below the "animation speed" slider to take it out of the loop.

Overall structure is looking a bit more ragged to me the last couple of hours in spite of the deeper convection (which is EXACTLY what my ex used to say about me!).
Exactly as I expected the NHC doesnt buy into the 8am model runs .... Will have to wait for the 2pm runs to see if this was just another flip flop
This is complete nonsense.

There is currently "no wilma", at 22mph winds and 5' seas, you gotta be kidding me.

This from the ndbc's own weather buoy not all that far from the supposed center of this TD:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

And, as for this being the "busiest" season ever. Give me a break, we have only had decent satellite coverage for the past 50 years or so and a lot of "neglible" storms that in times past would have NEVER been "discovered" are now counted.

I would say the busiest season in the past 30 years, sure, for all time?, yeah, right. Our "window" into the past is practically nonexistent when you consider the millions of years (ok, Billions) that hurricanes have existed, this is just complete nonsense that somehow this 6 month period is now the "busiest" ever.

Wilma's not a tropical storm yet and with the HUGE high pressure centered over Mexico it is doubtful it will be allow to become anything other than a stiff breeze.

Frustrated at these weather reports.

-stormman
palmbeacher....I turned the game off after Virginia went up 23-10 VERY BAD games
Good Morning Floridians! Is that a word?

Yeah weatherdude, it sucked.
So as of now, @ 120 hrs, the center should be just north of the Northern Yucatan Peninsula?
well we'll have to wait and see what the
next model runs show, one thing i can say
for the models is that they are consistent
at doing one thing correctly....CHANGING!
bout it tho lol
Mandy if it keeps going south all bets are off...Because a Trough will not be able to pick it up that far south..Im waiting to see if this is a cyclonic loop or if it will really get pushed much further south
JEND Do u have an aol name its hard to talk on these blogs
Hi Destiny! How's things?

And yes, we're Floridians. :-)
OMG i AM a "Floridian"! Why did this just occur to me after all these years? Now I feel old for some reason.
StormMan... try decaf.
StormMan
If you click the NWS Marine Forecast link on the URL you just posted, its recognizing this thing as Tropical Storm Wilma and predicting it to be Hurricane Status in a couple of days, just as Dr. Masters stated in this blog. Where DID you get your information from?
Get a boat and start rowing... We all know October isn't a good month for Florida and hurricanes and storms.

Just for the record Central Florida has been very lucky this hurricane season. All the storms passing us by.

I think some of us are in denial about the past season and it's impact on history. If you doubt how historic this season is ask anyone who went through Katrina.

I am hoping for a south Florida landfall but wish this on no one!! Just not us here.
JenD
So we should have a better idea after the 2pm runs then?
MANDY IT WILL SHOW CONSISTANCY (DID I SPELL IT RIGHT) DONT WANT TO BE CALLED LEFTY LMAO
Punk IM me using CybrTeddy.
I will talk to you.
JenD
Wilma is really getting her act together...But where is she going???
I hope FTLPunk is right and it keeps going south...
round and round she goes, where she moves to no one really knows!!
pcbguy....central america thats where she is going
Hey There Mandy, things are great, but C O L D

Big Whopping 19 degrees this morning, gorgeous snowfall.

Nice Photo there Subtropic
She's really growing right now...
Im in Alaska weatherdude.

Wow, there are a lot of buoys out around Florida. I didn't realize how big some of them were.

Check them out! Link
brrr... it was 57 here this morning and that shocked me.
she looks impressive on IR, but the center is just underneath the northern edge of the convection....still very unorganized.
Destiny, you can keep that 19 degrees BBBRRRRRRR
OMG destiny, I almost spit out my coffee that time! LMAO!
It felt great out this morning. Then the sun came out and the heat was on!
One can hope, windcast, one can hope.
79 here right now....GREAT weather!!!!
LOL Sorry bout that Sub, I'll email you a towel to wipe the coffee off your screen
LMAO sub
I'll keep my 19 degrees. Its t-shirt weather still. I'll have to post some photos this afternoon or something.
I have not felt 19 degress since Maine!!!!
thanks jenD. I'm in SoFlo and we got hit by a katrina and Rita although I will admit that the winds were not much stronger than a typical summer squall for us, the rain and the flooding really screwed up a lot of people. We have been getting a lot a rain recently and we are already saturated.
19 years old, yes, 19 degrees no!
Wilma looks to be strengthening, imo, possibly a 60mph storm at the official next update...check sat
I dont really want to take anything away from Wilma this morning, but take a look at the conditions at the Adak Buoy off Alaska this morning. These are typical conditions for the Bering Sea. Check the wind speed and and the temp of that water.... BURRRLink
OK PEOPLE THE 2PM MODELS WILL START TO TELL THE STORY OF WHERE WILMA WILL GO ... THE WILL HAVE INITIALIZED THIS SOUTHWARD JOG..IM ACTUALLY EXPECTING THE EASTERN MODELS TO SHIFT BACK WEST A BIT AND THE WEST MOST MODELS TO SHIFT EAST TO COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT...IM THINKING WILMA WILL GO IN BETWEEN THE YUCATAN AND CUBA FROM THERE ITS ANYONES GUESS...
windcast...if you look at the visible loop you can see that the center is still to the northern edge of the convection.
Destiny- looks like there is a storm there at that bouy as well
Personally, I think it's looking kinda ragged compared to late last night. But then again, so do I, so I shouldn't talk.
weatherdude- yes, so far the storm hasn't wrapped very well, they usually dont until they become stronger , all the energy is in the southern portion of the storm at this point
The satellite images clearly show Wilma as a tropical storm.

Also interesting though not organized yet is the circulation at around 50 degrees longitude and 12 degrees latitude.
Here is a corrected NHC bulletin. Shes a pretty good size storm isn't she? TS force winds extending 70 miles from center?

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.0 WEST OR ABOUT
220 MILES... 355 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT
230 MILES... 370 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH ... 7 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND WILMA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA... WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO
3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE
OVER HONDURAS.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...16.3 N... 80.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.
punk...i agree with you on a track between Cuba and the Yucatan, after that I am thinking a northward and the NE turn...how soon, not sure yet
106. wpb05
I am beginning to think it will impact land fairly well in central america....just a hunch, but I don't see the wsw track changing anytime soon....so unless it does almost a 180, i am fine here in florida
windcast....she is starting to show some signs of the convection trying to wrap back around the east and north side
Destiny,

Good morning, check your email. Thanks
Going to lunch all- update me when I get back!
any 1 feel wilma could affect florida pandle next week?? or probably hit tampa area????
Destiny,

My information, from the weblink I posted, says it all, barometric air pressure is not doing much, wind speed isn't doing much (all the while the NHC reports steadily dropping pressures and increased wind speed.)

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200524.track.html

Here's a graph of what's been happening around the "supposed" center of wilma for the past few days:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=42057&meas=wdpr&uom=E

here's a link to that shows the huge high pressure over Mexico:

http://www.wunderground.com/global/Region/CA/2xJetStream.html

(click on the reduce button on the link above and then you can "animate it")

All in all I would say this system is going to have a very tough time evolving.

By the way, if you look back over the past couple of weeks, there have been quite a lot of "supposed" storms to evolve out of this same area...except for Stan, not much has happened even though there were a number of predictions otherwise.

My main beef is that this TD has already been named and "supposedly" it has 60mph gusts even though there are no "surface" reports to back this up yet. The buoy data is not backing it up either. That's my main issue here.

=StormMan

p.s. Subtropic: I'm just getting frustrated at how the NHC is getting so agressive in naming storms...I figure it most likely has something to do with them wanting more budget (which they deserve and I am in support thereof) so they are "pushing the envelope" in naming these storms when they really aren't to help further their need for more budget -- not sure what I'm talking about, see this:

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/12853399.htm

(if you do not already have a "free account" for the miami hearld you will have to create one to see the article)

=StormMan

agreed the convection is beginning to wrap and the feeder
bands on the southeast side of the storm are developing
a bit more...also, does it look as if its tryin to eastward
now maybe just a bit
Or maybe it is because of Katrina??????
this may be the beginning of a strong storm, while it developement may be slow, there are no signs that this storm will be broken apart by anything
hard to tell windcast....
unless stormman is correct in his analysis...brb gonna try to find more info on the current pattern for this region
Ok, well I think I understand where your coming from, but you might want to consider checking the time stamps on some of these links.

http://www.wunderground.com/global/Region/CA/2xJetStream.html this one for instance was last updated at 9pm last night.

I certainly wasn't trying to doubt what you were saying, but there are a lot of entities at this point that would beg to differ. She's looking fairly organized to me at least at the moment and according to the NHC, NOAA, GOES, they all seem to be in compliance as to her status.


I'm holding out for more dry air to intrude and disrupt the storm mechanics. No one needs another 'cane now.
Prayers for any and all in Wilma's path and for those suffering from cyclones and other disasters around the world.
Yuck that looks like its headed our way... This is getting real old.
StormMan. Understood. I am very familiar with the issue you raised. I don't necessarily disagree with you. Just don't want to see anybody have an aneurysm over it. I hope you don't think I was flaming you earlier. Just my sense of humor. I try to inject it as much as possible when there is something brewing and people seem tense.
Sub, "Mr. Generator" check your mail
Link good visible you can see the dry air gettin sucked into that massive north eastern low that caused the flooding as it moves out. Also, looks like high pressure in the gulf is keeping wilma south.
OH geez, StormMan, I hope you dont think I was flaming on you either, I was just curious what information you were using. I guess I look at it like this, maybe they inflate the actual severity of these storms, but I would think if it makes people pay attention and take the necessary precautions, then so be it, it surely beats the alternative and people get caught off guard. I do however share your opinion about the historical aspect of it. How in the world would they know. As for this season, you have to admit it was a real thrill ride. So many first, so many big suprising events. Its definitely one for the history books.
Palmbeacher. Received and replied.
As for the historical reference, the only thing I have heard from the NHC is that this ties the busiest season on record. I haven't heard them state this was the busiest season ever. That is a huge distinction.
Stormman - good points. Way to think for yourself. Too many folks here think every fog bank just seconds from turning into the next cat 5.


Posted By: CybrTeddy at 2:56 PM GMT on October 17, 2005.

Just for the record Central Florida has been very lucky this hurricane season. All the storms passing us by.


Ummm... I think I remember reading that Katrina caused 2 BILLION to 4 BILLION dollars of damage and killed as many as 11 while it sliced southwestward across southern Florida as a Cat 1 before entering the gulf and heading for New Orleans...

You might have a hard time convincing those people that they had been "passed by".
No worries subtropic, no flame taken, just wanted to give you more of what I was thinking. Seems I need decaf but I've been sitting on these comments for a bit and the feeling just overwhelmed me on this.

OK, regarding others posts, first you might find this interesting (it is only updated every 6 hours:

http://www.oceanweather.com/data/Caribbean-Sea/marineloop.html

It puts a "graphical spin" on what's happening down there, both ndbc buoys in the area are represented. AirPressure is not doing anything and winds are light.

As for the high pressure (9pm last night comment), ok then here's the 1200 UTC (8am Florida time) map:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html

(this image link is updated every few hours so depending on when you click on it you will see the "current" readings")

Anyway, I hate to run, but I will be offline until Thursday, heading to earthquake county (California) for biz trip.

I certainly hope this system does nothing to harm anyone and I think it will remain weak and dissipate over Columbia.

=StormMan
Link im staring at this and i am wondering how in the world the models can forcast this storm (wilma) to head north at all? any thoughts?
The first part (the 120 hr run) of the 12Z GFS is in. Compared to its previous two runs, it seems to split the difference between too far west (the 0z run) and too far east (the 06z run), bringing Wilma through the Yucatan channel, brushing the NE tip of the peninsula. That's where it ends; presumably, the implication from that point is further up the FL W Coast than the 06z run (which was Ft. Myers).
StormMan. That's what a blog is for. I'm glad you finally took the time to say your piece.
Stormman, you bring up some very good points and your comments are a welcome read. Too many people on this blog, and in general, think every flare-up of convection in the tropics is going to turn into a cat 5 and hit land. It has gotten quite old and I have alluded to this in previous comments. The truth is that nobody has the slightest idea what Wilma will do, or where she is going. It is sad that in this day and age we have not progressed more in hurricane tracking and prediction. With that said, it is even more sad that the NHC has become so aggressive with forecasting. CYA culture we live in. They don't want people to come back at them later and say, 'you didn't warn us this could happen.' So everything becomes a doomsday scenario.

Bottom line, you just have to wait these things out and hope for the best. Conjecture all you want, but anything can happen and simply saying that it will be a Cat 3 to hit the west coast of FLA is a naive thing to do.
Sorry, I meant to say Nicaragua, not Columbia.

Keep an eye on this one "for yourselves", it is very good idea to keep aware but this one looks like it's going to do nothing, let's hope so.

By the way, here's a water vapor loop look at the storm:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/atwv.html

Ciao,

=StormMan
IMHO TS Wilma deserves her name, and it will be proven later today by recon.

Check out the latest QUIKSCAT derived winds (this is from 10:41 AM EDT, so she may have even strenghtened a bit ):

img src="http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur_hires/zooms/WMBas76.png".

Long-term forecasts show the storm heading into the Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Forecasters said high water temperatures and other conditions were favorable for it to become a significant hurricane.

But hurricane specialist Stacy Stewart said Wilma had shifted west of its previous path and could hit Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, not the U.S. Gulf Coast. "At this time it doesn't appear it will be a major threat to the United States during the next five days," Stewart said
HAHA, just called Carnival about a scheduled cruise I have leaving Thursday from Tampa and going to Cozumel. They said that they never cancel trips and they will just divert the destination somewhere else.

Great. It's nice to know their alcohol and gambling profits take priority over everyone's safety.
Do you all think that Louisiana will escape Wilma? I'm a Katrina evacuee myself, my family had to evacuate for Rita, and quite frankly I'm tired of this hurricane business. I'd also like to return to NOLA this weekend, but am concerned about Wilma.
Wow, Steve that 12Z GFS brings her across South Florida and the Upper Keys.
Posted By: Califonia at 4:14 PM GMT on October 17, 2005.

Posted By: CybrTeddy at 2:56 PM GMT on October 17, 2005.

Just for the record Central Florida has been very lucky this hurricane season. All the storms passing us by.


Ummm... I think I remember reading that Katrina caused 2 BILLION to 4 BILLION dollars of damage and killed as many as 11 while it sliced southwestward across southern Florida as a Cat 1 before entering the gulf and heading for New Orleans...

You might have a hard time convincing those people that they had been "passed by".


Califonia- Ummm...I think you need to read CybrTeddy's post more carefully. Central Florida has been spared this year, Katrina included.
Everything that I have read and heard indicates that Louisiana is not likely to take a hit from Wilma. Take that with a grain of salt, though.
mctypething Carnival is a terrible cruise line.
Good Monday Afternoon. :-)
Hi all- back from lunch & been catching up. Thanks for all of the great info. We'll keep our fingers crossed that this turns into a whole lotta nothing.

The next 5 days aren't going to affect us, for sure- it'll still be south of the peninsula (Florida) then, I believe. It's this time next week when we'll all be under the gun, if it makes it that far, IMHO
I have never been on Carnival...I have heard that it is not that good. I have been on Royal Caribbean 5 times.
Hi Stormy. BTW - Thanks for posting that.
I agree wannabe- Royal Carribean all the way!
Hello stormy....and welcome back Mandy
planning on being on Freedom of the Seas next year!!!!
any threat from wilma in Fla. panhandle area anyone????
Thanks! We're going on the Sovereign of the Seas in July- I helped my sister-in-law pick her wedding site. She did goooood. ;-)
Well I personally hope Wilma is plagued with a blast of windshear that just rips her apart so NOBODY has to worry about her at all. That goes for any other potential storm for the rest of the season. I dont live down there, but my family does and I'll be glad for this season to just come to an end.

Now that I've put my foot in my mouth, Im going to go shovel my driveway again. My apologies StormMan, I swear there was no mal intent to anything I said. As for the emails I just got from some people on here. I've never been called a troll before, not sure what thats suppose to mean, but Im sorry. I didn't realize anything I said was, troll like. Wow
I'm holding out for more dry air to intrude and disrupt the storm mechanics. No one needs another 'cane now.
155. iyou
Destiny - in no way are you a troll!!!
caneman, you could be on to something. The ridge of high pressure is also a factor. Too many people seem to get some sick pleasure out of seeing these things turn into major hurricanes, without regard to the human element involved.
heyhey hey wannabe hows it going man well have to go be on later
I totally agree, Royal Caribbean is the better of the two..Ive been on 3 Carnival ships and 3 Royal Caribbean ships...Carnival make their ships exactly the same...part of the fun of a cruise is getting lost on the boat while u r drunk (LOL)...cant do that w/ Carnival more than once if you go out of FL. However, Carnival is more kid friendly....I'll see how kid friendly Royal Caribbean is this Dec 2nd :-)
Destiny -- i think storm mans frustration has more to do with the NHC than you. Clearly he was tryin to state his anger towards them, dontcha feel bad thats all over lol
Royal Caribbean doesn't leave from Tampa, so we used Carnival.
Mandy....been on Sovereign three times. You will have a great time!
163. kingy
west coast of florida is due for an almighty beating. The warm temps of the ocaen will guarantee that much. The remnants will work north and re-flood the NE.

Watch out west coast floridians, it's been a long time-a-coming but Wilma is all yours I believe
THE LATEST GFS 12z

Link
Ummm... I think I remember reading that Katrina caused 2 BILLION to 4 BILLION dollars of damage and killed as many as 11 while it sliced southwestward across southern Florida as a Cat 1 before entering the gulf and heading for New Orleans...



Uhh I was speaking of Central Florida not Southren Florida.
You took what I said out of context.
JenD
mctypething, if you haven't been on a Carnival, you will enjoy yourself...their cabins are bigger than Royal Caribbeans are...just Royal's food seemed better to me...and I like the Bahama cruise out of Port Canaveral, Royal's stops at two places while Carnival, only one port...
Stormy, my kids LOVED Royal Carribean. When we went on Mariner we hardly saw them. They were always wanting to go to all of the kids programs. When we ported at Grand Cayman, the kids stayed on the ship and we went ashore for shopping, then back to the ship and the hot tubs!!
Yeah, dude- I went on it back in 2000, and I hear they've remodeled since then... Hopefully no storms next July!
I don't understand why they are not accounting for all her southerly movement...she still looks like she's heading south....Link...wouldn't that just blow NHC away if she moved out into the Pacific and never turns north...ha/ha
Caneman, check out this WV loop. As far as dry air goes, it appears the air that has been bothering her development is now moving out to the east, and the remaining dry air should soon be mixed out.

It would take some prolonged killer shear to tear her apart at this point, and right now she's in a pretty favorable shear environment. She'll get stronger, making her more resistant to shear and more capable of producing her own favorable upper level environment.

In short:: this storm is here to stay until a landfall dissipates it.
Thanks Hecker.
Well hello there, Wilma. Aren't you a pretty thing?

lol
mandy, I was just on Sovereign in Feb....they did a good job a refurbishing her
mandy lol
mandy i left u mail on ur blog
65 - Im going on the Mariner in March, haven't done that one yet, but really excited...going on the Soveriegn this Dec (for the 6th time) with my 11 year old (and all of my work and some friends)...she's in the middle of kids, older than the kid kids, but still too young to hang with the teens, if you know what I mean...we'll see how it goes, hopefully, she will make friends or they will have something for her age group. :-)
178. wpb05
if you look closely at the model runs from this morning, they indicate that southern movement ....htat is not any big surprise really
Thanks, dude. Definitely looking forward to it then.
Because history has shown us in the past. This may be Florida's storm to deal with. Anyone from Key West to the Panhandle continue to carefully moniter the situation. If this was August I would expect a westward path. But it's mid October W to NW and then NE is the historic path of Caribbean hurricanes.
It looks like Wilma is moving SSE to me.
Yes WBP, lefty and I were just discussing how the GFS indeed shows that southerly movement before her turn to the north.
hey guys. i will be on my blog all day if any one has anyquestions has i have limitedmy time here on dr.masters blog. also recon will be in the storm shortly

lefty's blog
She'll have a great time stormy....when you are on Mariner, make sure you do the rock climbing and the ice skating!!
Well, I gotta grasp something. dry air, shear, dry martinis, anything. Last thing anyone needs is this royal PITA raising hell along the gulf.
I guess its too early to tell, but there's always a chance this thing could evaporate and be little more than a brief entry in the 'cane log of 2005
Upon looking at the forecasts and everything, it seems as though the southernmost part of Florida shouldn't worry too much about it, as it would have to make an immediate turn to the north and northeast to hit there, which it is not yet doing. And the westerlies in the northern Gulf of Mexico wouldn't allow it to get very far west as it moves towards the north. So right now I'm guessing that anywhere between the mouth of the Pearl River in Mississippi (where Katrina made landfall) and Tampa, Florida is the most likely target for Wilma to go.
And I would also bet that it would make landfall as at least a Cat 2, or if not then a Cat 3 as the waters in the Gulf are still warm enough to support such a system (although they may be a touch cooler now than when Katrina and Rita roared through).
Good taste caneman, and if it's Gin martini then you have excellent taste!

Anyway, what appears to be happening with the dry air is that the largest mass is moving out to sea into the Atlantic, leaving a pocket of dry air over the Gulf for with which Wilma must contend.

There is relatively moist air circulating from the North and into the Gulf, and Wilma will mix out that dry air from the south over the day. Soon the dry air will be trapped, and then it will be gone.
Long time reader, 1st time writer.....Long time south Floridian..........

It will be interesting what the 2:00 forecast is based on the majority of the computer models now in consesus about the NE turn
no lie i had 8 days of no power with frances. welcome
Hi 7days! Welcome!
Yah 7 days, it will be interesting to see what the NHC dpes with tehe track. They completely ignored the dramatic change in track shown in last night's model runs, and now the most recent model runs are more in line with the original NHC track.

I speculate the NHC track won't shift much it's current prediction.
welcome aboard 7days.....listen to me, I sound like the captain of a ship....Ahoy matees!!!! LOL
I wonder if Jacksonville's luck will continue
Sail on weatherdude65!!~
We are here for the long haul.
JenD
Aaaaarg me bucko!
Although it does fit in with the earlier cruise ship discussion.
does the north florida gulf coast seem to be safe at the moment from any future inpacts from wilma???
Well it's all that cruise talk. I went on a Carnival cruise out of Tampa in 99. We went to New Orleans. Unfortunately, that won't be a stop on your cruise this year.

If the weather becomes worse, does traveler's insurance cover hurricanes?

Personally, this scenario reminds me of Irene. The hurricane that never was until after the fact.
Hello all,

StormMan, don't know if your still here or not...read your comments..checked out Buoy 42057 you mentioned, right beneath location info found this stated in bold red lettering -

"Station 42057 has been re-established 162.82 nautical miles northwest of its original position to reduce the shoaling hazards experienced in storms."

Now can you or someone else verify if the position listed at 17.6N 80.7W is the previous or present?

StellarCyclone, yeah I've also been watching same healthy convection at 12N 50W - has small anticyclone outflow over it, no apparent LLC...
Also been keeping eye on small ULL NE of Leeward Islands now near 18.5N 59W for any signs on conversion to trop/subtrop system..this should merge w/ upper SW flow to it's NW...possibilities maybe from either of these to become Alpha or Beta? Who knows...none of models appear to show development any time soon from either....


7days, I hope not. We got almost 20 inches of rain from Irene where I am.
I find it interesting that one of our local news stations said Wilma basically has "no chance" of hitting South Florida.. could be true, but surprised they would say that at this time..
billsfan. Who said that? I don't watch local news much. Just curious.
Frances power outages, can we say 3 weeks????
Cellman, looks like the most Jax would get is a strike from the N quadrant of the storm (assuming a near perpendicular landfall in SW Fl).

That would set Jax up with some heavy rains and possibly some TS winds/gusts, but nothing far from the ordinary close call. I like the prediction of a Charleyesque path, with an exit near Daytona Beach. Seems reasonable, though its really just educated guess-work at this point.
Probably Dean Tendrich.....the Vipir5, after all, is all knowing.....
cybr...are you in Florida?
not wishing it on anyone, but we seem to be able to stay just on the edge of everything luckily
Charley situation??? ::shiver::
That puts the eye pretty much right over my house then.
I really think it will go to our north or south the trend thus far this hurricane season.

I think Central Florida has a big bubble protecting it this year. The Space Shuttle effect or something or really "magic" at Magic Kingdom. *G

JenD
Yepp Orlando here (east)
JenD
stormy dee takes the lead for frances.

Jax has got the same situation as us down the east coast ~ rather take a backdoor hurricane any day.

wait & see
I had friends in Gainesville who lost power for 10 days b/c of Frances, and that was only under TS force winds. However, they were the minority regarding the duration of the power outage.

Francis took my Internet for a week, which was ultimatley more bothersome than the tree that landed on my house and smashed the water pumps.
****BREAKING NEWS*****
GFDL AND GFS HAVE ONCE AGAIN SHIFTED WEST AS I SPECULATED ON SINCE EARLY THIS AM

Image hosted by Photobucket.com


Your not to far from me....I'm actually in Rockledge
Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on October 17, 2005
...Wilma moving slowly as it gathers strength...

a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Honduras from the Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Cabo camaron.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for the Cayman Islands.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

At 2 PM EDT...1800z...the center of Tropical Storm Wilma was located near latitude 16.1 north... longitude 80.0 west or about 235 miles... 380 km... south-southeast of Grand Cayman and about 225 miles... 365 km...east-northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua/Honduras border.

Wilma has drifted southward over the past few hours...but a gradual turn to the west is expected over the next 24 hours. Steering currents remain weak and erratic motion is possible during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph... 80 km/hr...with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...and Wilma could become a hurricane tomorrow.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles ...110 km...mainly to the south of the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb...29.44 inches.

Wilma is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the Cayman Islands and Jamaica... with isolated amounts of 8 to 12 inches possible. Rainfall accumulations of 2 to 3 inches...with isolated amounts of 6 to 10 inches...are possible over Honduras.

Repeating the 2 PM EDT position...16.1 N... 80.0 W. Movement toward...drifting south. Maximum sustained winds... 45 mph. Minimum central pressure... 997 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 5 PM EDT.

Forecaster Franklin


$$



Shortly I will be posting the results of the CSE calculations. Stay tuned.
yes central fl's seen everypart of the storms this year but the bad part, at least so far. sure do desurve it after last year. I did some checkin a month or 2 back. Right around early 30's (last bad cycle). we got nailed similar to last year. got lucky a year with them hitten all around but not cfl. the following year we got slammed by a biggin.
going for lunch....be back later for an update
bye dude!
I suspected those models would shift back towards the west. It could be like one of those Ivan or Katrina situations where the models kept moving further and further west until they picked a spot and stopped there (remember how during Ivan, they first wanted to target FL's west coast, then kept moving west until they got to the AL coast...and with Katrina they moved from FL big bend way over to New Orleans). So I would bet that everyone from the Pearl River, MS to Tampa, FL need to pay special attention to Wilma. I tell ya...these females this year...I dunno about them...
221. iloco
Nice equatorial outflow. She looks like she's opened up an outflow channel to the NW, but still a bit restricted there.

Bet we find a nice radar presentation of inner core when RECON gets there.

As far as track, my bets are a Yucatan strike and dissipate unless W/NW motion resumes in the next few hrs.
Until the upper level pattern becomes more pronounced I believe you will keep seeing the models flip flop...The NHC realizes this Hence they left the forecast unchanged
real quick comment on the models.

most the global models shifted to the west last night because they lost the shortwave for some reason. it was explained in the 5am disscussion and why they did not shift the track any further west. right now the models look to be handleing the shortwave bertter now. any questions i be glad to answer in my blog

lefty's blog
224. OGal
Hey Jen D. I am here in Winter Springs. No storms for us ---right?? This track does look a little like Charley. Let's hope we truly are "The Magic Kingdom" this year. I just got everything redone from last year.
what part Fla. coast seems most likely for wilma affects if any?? anyone got any speculations??
to hel[ u guys out here is the 5am disscussion on wilma and the shift in model tracks and the nhc thinking. any questions i be gald to answer in my blog


THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 235/03. THE GENERAL TREND IN THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTH OR
SOUTHWESTWARD AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH OVER FLORIDA AND
CUBA APPEAR TO BE THE ONLY STEERING FLOW AVAILABLE. BUT ON A LARGER
SCALE... WILMA REMAINS TRAPPED BETWEEN TO HIGH PRESSURE CELLS TO
THE NORTHWEST AND EAST OF THE CYCLONE. THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS AND
THE MAJORITY OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY
WESTWARD OR TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
TRACK. THE ONLY MODELS NOT CLOSE TO THE NHC CONSENSUS OR GUNA MODEL
ARE THE ECMWF... CANADIAN... AND THE GFS 10-MEMBER ENSEMBLE MODELS.
THE ECWMF HAS BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT WITH ITS TRACK THE PAST 5
DAYS IN MOVING THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. IT ALSO WAS
THE ONLY MODEL TO EARLY AND ACCURATELY PREDICT CYCLOGENESIS. THE
ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE ALSO THE ONLY MODELS THAT DO NOT
LOSE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THAT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AXIS OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE.
UPPER-AIR DATA AT 00Z INDICATE A GOOD THERMAL PATTERN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH... WHICH ONLY THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN HAVE PICKED
UP ON. THE SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN THE EAST
SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN/ERODE THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA... CUBA...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO BY 48 HOURS. ALSO... THE DEEP-LAYER LOW OFF THE COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA IN COMBINATION WITH THE DEEP LOW OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN A BLOCKING-TYPE PATTERN ACROSS THE
U.S.... WHICH MEANS THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS ONLY
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT... OR WEST... OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL... AND ALSO UNTIL THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BECOMES
MORE CERTAIN BY LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND SHEAR ARE STILL UNDERCUTTING THE
IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER... THESE ADVERSE
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY DIMINISHING BASED ON CONVENTIONAL
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND A 17/0155Z SSMI WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR
CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY
POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PRECLUDES
FORECASTING WILMA TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY 120 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE LESS ROBUST SHIPS
MODEL AND THE VERY BULLISH GFDL MODEL... WITH THE LATTER MODEL
MAKING WILMA A 109-KT HURRICANE BY 60 HOURS.
We is B*&@#$s quakeman, we is b*&@#$s... lol
Subtropic.. We put on Channel 7 for the noon news...
Yes, I remember Irene as well, my work was flooded.. areas of Oakland Park under water for days
most likely the west coast, followed by south fl & panhandle ,but what comes in one side of fl goes out the other. If your in fl keep an eye out.
Thanks billsfan. I was just wondering.
Hey billsfan! I was down in Ft. Lauderdale and Miami over the weekend. Went to Riverfront for the first time, it was nice. It rained while we were there, and I noticed the water stood on the roads. Seems worse than up here. Has the drainage always been like that down there?
Thanks OGal,
Indeed I hope Disney builds or buys HUGE fans (they could afford them) and blow the storm back into the gulf. Granted these fans would have to be bigger than Coronado resort but they could do it. It would keep sales up for them and benefit us all. Magic Kingdom effect~~~:::++ *Grin
JenD
The local weatherman here in Tampa just said that he believes Tampa is out of the woods. I am really surprised that he would make such a statement. Something tells me he just screwed us with that statement.
Wow. That's kinda ballsy for someone to say so early...
Yeah, he said the system is drifting too far south for any trough to pick it up and turn it north. He said it will stay south and go into Mexico. I think he is in a clear minority with that statement.
Hello, all. I've been following this blog and your comments for several days now- you seem like a knowledgeable bunch! I'm from southern Mississippi. My husband just went back to work in New Orleans (St. Bernard parish) for the first time today. It's been surreal. some people in our town are still living in tents, but we're lucky. The eye of Katrina passed right over us, but we as a family were very prepared.

Anyway, what I wanted to ask, and I hope it's not considered rude in this community, is if yall think that landfall in the already Katrina-ravaged areas is ruled out, or is it still completely up for grabs? I realize that nobody knows for sure, but I am curious if you have some greater insight than the generic weather info being given on television. Thanks for reading!
Bad urban planning leads to flooding in the tricounty area. There are places in the north end of Palm Beach County that are regularly flooded because there were not enough drainage ditches put in place before they started to develop......

So....do you think my cheerleaders (and I) will be rained on again on Friday. I say a BIG YES!!!!!
MC. Not for me to critique a trained meteorologist. On the other hand.... Too far south??? Perhaps he missed Gordon (for example) Link
Hey all, a fellow panhandle florida guy here, do u think the south twist and a high here will drive this thing a little more to the Naples area?
240. iyou
And Elena 1985 - sorry, crummy with links...
well, at least the computer models are FINALLY accounting for her southerly movement...I was wondering why they didn't yesterday...if there are weak stearing currents, then it would make sense she would continue to drift in the direction she started in...but, they are finally catching up...
Let me follow that up with... I don't do forecasts per se and I am not actually suggesting that as a scenario for Wilma. But it does illustrate that there are other possibilities.
Hey drtrakman - Where you at? These model shifts are making me a wee tad nervous as well.
244. code1
palmbeacher,
Miami's infrastructure must be very old. Flew in and a monsoon hit late at night. No worse than most So. Fl. storms though, and roads were flooded out. Had to detour from airport to downtown and got lost. Not something you want to do as a female in a car alone late at night down there! Martin Co. does better!
i guess the panhandle is covered here.......we are all a little on the anxious side...... with all the action we have got here recently!
Gbreezegirl, I am sitting on a little island just south of u! Pensacola Beach!
Are the newest models y'all are referring to posted on wunderground or another place? Just want to make sure I"m looking at the same thing...
248. code1
Amen Gbreeze and Navarre, Crestview here. Didn't head south today (Miami) for work, waited to see what Mrs. Flintstone is going to do. Too far out though, should have gone and just came home if needed!
Mandy - I have been looking at the models on Skeetobite -Tropical weather done right. I think they are all the same though. Sorry I am no good at links.
Thanks Gbreeze...
drtrakman - wish I was sitting on that little island. Took the boat out in the bay yesterday and had 3 dolphins jumping around the boat. It was great! Stuck in the office today.
code1 - if you had gone to Miami it would have sealed the deal for the panhandle........ and we all thank you!!!!
subtropic~ i remember gordon~ luckily it was weak both times it passed by here. storms like that make ya realize about anything can happen as to where they'd go.
I see them... not good. not good a'tall
gbreezegirl,
It is getting better out here but a short drive down via de Luna still looks like a war zone!
the ECMWF Link We're all gonna die!!!! lol
257. code1
I have to go tomorrow, work Wed.-Sun. Keep me in mind this week and let me know if I need to come home. I am one of those who doesn't evacuate. If I had evacuated for Ivan, would have had a lot of water damage from roof damage. As it was, had garbage cans ready in the garage and took care of leaks as they came in that night! Want to be home, in order to take care of my house. Have generator and gas, bring it on!!!
Like yesterday, I still see this thing headed for the central panhandle. Hopefully, I will be wrong...
259. code1
Need to clarify last statement...was actually working in Tucson and came home on the last flight into FWB to take care of my own.
PCB - what info can you share that makes us look like the hit in the panhandle? (shaken in my shorts)
back from lunch...did I miss anything earth shatering?
I really feel like she's not gonna get picked up and moved North....she just keeps going south or s/w.....Im no expert, but she obviously hasn't moved north since yesterday..
21 GMT 10/16/05 17.7N 79.6W
03 GMT 10/17/05 17.6N 79.7W
09 GMT 10/17/05 17.2N 79.7W
15 GMT 10/17/05 16.3N 80.0W
so, I think the 5PM will have her creeping even further south...what do you think?
Same here PCB!
Dude: PCB is about to share his insight (we hope) into the origins of his theory into a panhandle landfall. :-)
266. code1
Nope, female health care consultant, on my own, no one to take care of house if I'm away!
One good thought about a panhandle hit (and the only good thing about it I may add) is that our water here is now 78 degrees, so that should, and emphasis is on should, help bring a monster a little down (remember Opal was a 5 prior to landfall but knocked down to a 3)
that's cool, we have a lot of military neighbors - you sounded like one with your traveling.
panhandle landfall??? Don't think so...although it is still very early in the process to tell, but that is just my opinion,
270. code1
drtrakman and Navarre, I had same thoughts about water temps, check last nights Leftyy's blog for info. I have Eglin all around me too!
I don't buy the hard right hook some are suggesting. I think climatology is out the window this year and that the trough late week will turn Wilma N and NNE but too late unfortunately, for the panhandle...

Let's just pray that I am wrong...
I have a hard time justifying a storm any larger than a 3, but, i am no pro.....
Sometimes gut feelings are the best. Mercifully, we still have about a week to watch her...
ok Lefty, so let me get this straight. thye say a ridge is suppose to pull Wilma northward, that is if the ridge is not to weak, if so it will continue toward mexico. But if the ridge does put it northward into the gulf a high pressure is suppose to move into the northern gulf and push the storm towards Florida. that will peventthe storm from moving to the north western gulf, right? How sure are they that this high pressure will form in this area.
In the previous storm NHC has depended a lot on high pressure systems that did not do what they thought they would. Like in Rita's case, the high pressure actually seemed to split and she moved inbetween the two highs.
So what do you think. Put
Just keep in mind that a hard right hook assuumes the rest of the forecast track to that point verifies. Until that happens, it may not require such a hard right to cause a landfall further south. Not a forecast. Just food for thought.
Of course, it also assumes that I can spell the word "assume".
Good point Subtropic.

Maybe she will just go to Mexico and fall apart... Probably not though...
278. code1
Will say the same prayer PCBguy.
You know what they say about ASSUME - LOL
280. code1
lol ST, good point though.
THE HIGH WILL ERODE DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL GIVE WILMA A PASSAGE WAY TO THE NORTH...AFTER THAT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL THEN PICK WILMA UP AND MOVE HER NE IM CALLING TAMPA TO KEY WEST ON THIS 1
SINGIN "OH MANDY"
punk, I agree with you....I just do not see it getting to the panhandle
MANILOW?!?!?! Don't make me click the obscene button on you ftlauderdale ;-)
The storm just changed from moving south at 6 kt, to barely drifting at much slower pace. This movement still complies with what the models show, and same for the next 12 hours, before any of the turns to north.
286. code1
Lauderdale, what is with the caps? We hear you without them.
IF U ALL LOOK AT ALL THE MAIN MODELS THE LAST POINT IS HEADED NORTHEAST.... ONE IS TAMPA ONE IS FT MYERS ONE IS SOUTH COLLIER COUNTY... I THINK THE GFDL WILL BEND MORE TO THE RIGHT AS TIME GOES ON
sorry bout the caps yall
Speaking of Manilow....I saw Copacabana last week at our Playhouse here locally
lol ft.lauderdale.
291. code1
No prob. I know on some systems that I work on, they require caps to work :) Just not at work now, and see the difference.
If this storm is going to Tampa, then the NHC will have to seriously adjust their track...
294. dcw
Also, when is that accursed recon coming in!?
295. code1
dcw, you are getting as bad as Cosmic, double posting. You have told us for weeks now about your site. The ones of us who choose to look will, otherwise let it go. Not saying that your's is not good though.
pcb real quickon ur comment. the nhc has a 5 day track. the stormwill not affect florida for 7-10 days so it will not be on the nhc track yet. any questions ur welocme to ask me on my blog


Link
297. dcw
Is there a way to edit posts then? I generally double-post when I forget to say something, so...
Lefty,
are you back posting here? *G
Oh happy day..
JenD
299. code1
The best option is to just post on your site, unless you have questions for all bloggers. Then, those who choose to, can enjoy your site as well :)
LATEST 12z GFS RUN PUTS IT OVER SOUTH FLALink
cybr, lefty posts in his own blog now. That is a link to it in his last post.
no i just pop in with a comment or 2 when i feel i can help, also letting people know i am in my blog answering questions and what not. i do lurk here though

lefty's blog
I know he has his own blog.
Been there all day.. *Grin

I wonder where they will deploy the Cantore?
JenD
Oooh... the Cantore. I don't know but I will be glad to see his handsome face again

<>

lol
::agreed Mandy!!~
Looking forward to that handsome smile!!
Just hope it isn't in Tampa Bay. *G
Bring on the Cantore..
JenD
Jend...saw your post about Tom Terry...he's pretty good at his job
actually i was kinda puzzled by lefty's posting... lefty had issues with the 'trolls' here and he decided to leave... it saddened many people but i guess a man's gotta do what a man's gotta do...

i just want to know if to break out the welcome back cake??
Lol Mandy...after seeing the pictures on your profile, I can see why you said that!

That was a compliment by the way :-D

Cantore rules though.
oooooh chicken cacciatore - now that is the kiss of death, don't want to see Jim here!
yep weatherdude... we like Tom Terry and The Cantore here.
Like I said at Lefty's blog Mr.Terry doesn't sugar coat anything with hurricanes tells it like it is.

We shall see if Tom Terry is relaxed or serious during his 5pm newscast. I will let you all know here in Orlando.
JenD
I'll have to walk back to the breakroom at 5 and see what he has to say
JenD- definitely. We don't get the pleasure of The Tom here...
I have a little problem with the weather channel - each time i evacuate (i have small children - that don't need a lifetime of flashbacks) I go to my parents home - very slow, internet - they are not with it - the only real source of info comes from the weather channel, not helpful at all....... we had no idea what to expect after Ivan or Dennis. seems like a lot of hype.
Looking at the latest floater images from the NHC site, it looks like Wilma's cloud pattern is changing and is starting the transition to looking more and more like a hurricane. On the last frame it looks like a tiny blob of convection is billowing up directly over the center, which should grow much larger and maybe start to fill up that northern side too. If so, then it'll have the potential for significant strengthening in a relatively short time span. Still barely moving...for now. It wouldn't surprise me if the hurricane hunters find winds a little stronger than 50 MPH...especially as the convection grows.
Thanks, quakeman. :-)
where can I find the data the recon team reported about Wilma at does anybody have a link?
Welcome Mandy...call me Anthony lol

Remind me to put up a dang profile for myself...heck for all everyone here knows, I'm just some mysterious entity that drifts in and out here every now and then :-P
Oh and I am in the panhandle too by the way, in the FWB/Niceville area. So I'll definitely be keeping a good close eye on Wilma over the next week or so.
320. dcw
The recon still isn't in.

How long after a flight arrives do we normally get a Vortex?
Ahhh...y'all can have "the Cantore"..give me Stephanie Abrams!!! LOL ;-)

But, back on the real...I just don't see a LA or MS/AL hit with Wilma, because the westerlies are simply too established here (I live in Lafayette) on the NW Gulf to allow her to pull this far north. Far more likely is exactly what Lefty suggested...a gradual turn to the North along the Yucatan Channel (or a clipping of the Yuc Penisula) followed by a direct jog NE into South or Central Florida. So, right now, it does look better for those areas hit hard by the "Twin Bee-yatches" (Katrina and Rita).

OTOH....if I lived on the East Coast, I'd watch this real closely, because there is a chance that the remnants of Wilma moving into the Atlantic may either: (1) move close enough along the coast to clip the Eastern Seaboard with gale force winds and rain (if not worse); or (2) phase with a very strong trof coming in from the NW by next week and form up a decent late-October "nor'easter" system. Either way,it could be a repeat performance of last week's Tammy experience.

BTW...for the record, Bastardi at AccuWeather is calling for Wilma to become a Cat 5 in the Western Carribean, and at least a Cat 3 at landfall near Tampa Bay...and maintaining itself as a Cat 1 or 2 (or becoming a strong subtropical low) near the Outer Banks. Needless to say, he remains consistent. ;-)

Just had to delurk to mention that.

And sorry to hear about Lefty go...I enjoyed his expertise as well.


Anthony
Oooohhh,
I knew it was only a matter of time before some MAN would want to deploy the Abrams!! *Grin

It's okay the Cantore and the Abrams make for good eye candy. *G the Cantore is more profound however, but he likes the drama.

JenD
anthony i am not gone just relocated and i stilllurk here and will give info where appropriate. you cna find me on my blog where all are welcome

lefty's blog
The Abrams came from my neck of the woods. I remember her when she was doing local weather here in Tally. Love her too.

They'd have beautiful children- "The Abrams-Cantore" family.

LOL
Has anybody noticed the cloud shield that extends from Wilma. The outer edges are now coming over South Florida. This may become a large hurricane.
Hey quakeman55,

I am in the Panhandle also ..... FWB/Valparaiso ..... gotta put the FWB ahead of everything so people can relate to the area:-)
lol Mandy,
Now we have offically lost our minds. *Grin
What pretty babies they would have indeed.

JenD
::deploy the Cantore!!
matilda: that's my fear. Even if it goes in south of the panhandle, we could get some goodies from it if it gets big (like Katrina)

They've all been big this year, haven't they...?
Thanks, Lefty, for the correction..and I have found your blog; will be posting there soon.

Hey, Jen..I like Cantore as much as the other weather geeks and freaks around here...he's much better than Dan Rather. Stephanie's better looking, though.

Oh..and y'all do know that there are no less than TWO systems in formation right behind Wilma in the Atlantic, do 'ya?? Any bets on how far we go in the Greek alphabet?? *UGH*

Anthony
(OK, Mama Nature, we got your point....enough already!!!!)
All Hail The Cantore!

(and The Abrams, as appropriate)


Teeheehee...
JenD....Jim says that he will come down here just for YOU!!!!
yes all are welocme on my blog. heres the recon for you guys

URNT12 KNHC 172024
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 17/20:05:10Z
B. 15 deg 50 min N
079 deg 52 min W
C. 850 mb 1342 m
D. 35 kt
E. 318 deg 020 nm
F. 034 deg 038 kt
G. 318 deg 019 nm
H. 989 mb
I. 17 C/ 1525 m
J. 19 C/ 1524 m
K. 19 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0324A WILMA OB 10
MAX FL WIND 38 KT NW QUAD 19:59:10 Z
GOOD BANDING ON RADAR

It seems like storms never like to hit the Tallahassee area directly, so if that holds true, you should be pretty safe from this one, Mandy. But further west in my neck of the woods is another story...Opal...Ivan...Dennis...and all the smaller ones in between...could Wilma be our second one this year? Could be...I kept telling myself we'd have another one after Dennis this year since it hit so early in the season. Let's see what happens...

tripleb, we could always say Destin instead of FWB...heck everyone knows where that is, even moreso than Pensacola! Anyone who's been to Destin during any given summer day knows EXACTLY what I mean...over half the license plates are from out of state.
334. dcw
Recon in with 989 pressure...Hurricane Wilma? They havent sampled the strongest section.
weatherdude65,
Oh that is soooo reassuring!! I feel much much better now. lol He doesn't come inland does he? I thought the Cantore sticks to the coast more? Orlando wouldn't be his first pick lol

We could discuss the Magic Kingdom effect again.. lol
Any case it isn't looking good for Florida and it's going to be a BIG storm (large).

JenD
::deploy the Cantore
"Teeheehee"? Lol you're a dork, Mandy :-P. One thing I should do though is that next time Abrams comes close to here, I need to go try to find her and say hi...who's with me? :-D

989 mb? That could easily support at least 65-70 mph winds...so it's only a matter of time for the wind speeds to catch up. Typically the pressure falls first, then the winds pick up...like a cause-and-effect kind of thing, with the cause being the pressure falls and the effect being the increased wind speeds.
JenD....as of right now, no, it is not looking to good for us.
LOL Anthony...I think those other systems will be sheared to death...for now...not favorable for development at this time...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD. A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS DISORGANIZED AND SPORADIC...AND NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED.

Link my source :-)
339. dcw
Yeah, if Wilma comes here I'm tracking down TWC people.
I am thinking that by 11pm we will be looking at Hurricane Wilma....everytime I hear Wilma I want to ask, "Where's Fred" LOL
My thinking is that in a week or so, someone's gonna be sounding like Fred Flintstone at the end of the closing theme...

Wiiillllmaaaa!!!!!
I AM a dork. I'm TIRED- it makes me dorkier. lol
Aren't we all really just DORKS at heart? lol
Quakeman, agree about the better organized system which is now visible in satellite images (hadn't looked for awhile, surprised by the changes). Thanks for the recon data Lefty! DCW, wouldn't be surprised if Wilma quickly reaches hurricane status (once the winds catch up).
TROPICAL STORM WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2005

A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS JUST ARRIVED IN THE CENTER OF
WILMA...FINDING A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 989 MB...AND PEAK 850 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 51 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. WHILE THIS
MINIMUM PRESSURE OFTEN CORRESPONDS TO NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY...
ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES ARE UNUSUALLY LOW...FLATTENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THOUGH THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DECREASED WITH THE DIURNAL MINIMUM...BANDING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
AND NEW CONVECTION IS GOING OFF DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTER. WILMA
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN...ONE
WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED...WITH BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS
MAKING WILMA A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. ONCE
WILMA GETS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE HOSTILE AS SHEAR INCREASES...AND SOME WEAKENING IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED AT THAT TIME.

WILMA CONTINUES TO DRIFT MOSTLY SOUTHWARD...OR 190/2. CERTAINLY
THERE HAS BEEN MORE SOUTHWARD MOTION THAN ANTICIPATED...WITH THIS
POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY OBSERVED
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. HOWEVER...THE CORE
CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC THIS AFTERNOON...AND I AM
EXPECTING WILMA TO SOON BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD IN BETTER
ACCORD WITH THE GUIDANCE. THE BASIC SYNOPTIC REASONING IS
UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE LARGE LOW OFF OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA MOVES EASTWARD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW WILMA TO
GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. FOR
REASONS UNKNOWN...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NOGAPS AND UKMET
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHWARD BY ABOUT 200 MILES AND NO LONGER
DRIVE WILMA INTO BELIZE. THE GFS AND GFDL...ON THE OTHER
HAND...HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD...RESULTING IN A RATHER NARROW
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE RATHER CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
CONSEQUENTLY...LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...EXCEPT THAT BY THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILMA
IS EXPECTED TO BE ENCOUNTERING WESTERLY FLOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
THAT SHOULD FORCE A FAIRLY SHARP RIGHT TURN. HOW SHARP A TURN WILMA
TAKES IS OBVIOUSLY OF INTEREST TO ALL ALONG THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...BUT IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO IDENTIFY SPECIFIC AREAS AT
GREATEST RISK.
65, you may be right...if not, we'll wake up and she will be...there is some nice convection blowing up on her north side now...Link
Is it me or is there convection firing over the center right now? Is that going to become a big blob?
I'm a total dork at heart... lol
"NEW CONVECTION IS GOING OFF DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTER" - I guess that answers the first question. :p
This is how they forecast: BASIC SYNOPTIC REASONING
stormy...I believe that the winds will catch up to the pressure by 11:00. She is really starting to look good, and that blow up is going to aid in her strengthning.
Right now, I really do not have a good feeling about this....
Dang... I think I slept through that class. lol
Me too Mandy!! LOL

Dorks Unite!!!!! hummmmm sounds like a new movie!
BASIC SYNOPTIC REASONING means they guess :-)
LOL Stormy. My bad... the dorkiness is spreading too quickly...
5pm forecast map is out. Seeing it. Not liking it. Link
stormy, I think the next time someone here at works asks me how I came up with a decision I am going to say that I used 'BASIC SYNOPTIC REASONING' of course!!!
358. dcw
Haha.

Natscape news headline "DEADLY WILME FORMS, COULD FOLLOW IN KATRINAS FOOTSTEPS"...they really need to relax, thats as absurd as...well...all the absurd tropical things I can think of have already happened, so...
The WU map is even more disturbing because they are more generous with their "cone of doom" : Link
Well, I think shes gonna keep moving further south "than anticipated" because the stearing currents are too weak..I see she is strengthening yet, she is persistant...and this wind map Link explains why I think she will continue south...and maybe not even affect us.
Amthony, what are "Outer Banks"?
Good one dude... me too.
VERY Funny 65 (hehehehehe), see now we all have a great excuse :-)
LOL "cone of doom" I love it.. I am adopting that phrase.. it's hysterical..
LWF. Outer Banks (abbreviated OBX) is a thin strand of land along North east North Carolina. Places such as Kitty Hawk/Nags Head at the north and Cape Hatteras at the south, with a very popular tourist island, Ocracoke.
LakeWorthFinn, you have mail. :)
Watch out, or I will place the 'CONE OF DOOM'
upon you
Hi all! Back from vacation in the Carolinas. Looks like I took it at the right time? There was about a 1 week break in the action in the tropics. Here we go again! This time it looks to be a Florida storm, with more confidence each model run
Accuweather has a huge "CONE OF DOOM"!
You are talking about my home. Eastern NC.
Ok. The Dork is going home now. Hopefully to recoup some of the saneness she used to have. lol

If I don't get on tonight, I'll talk to you all tomorrow.

Bye!
Subtropic, the Cone of Doom is indeed pretty wide, and that's only for the period to Saturday (when it gets interesting).
I have made a forecast track, nut do not go as far out in days as the NHC does at this time. I may add to it later tonight or on Tuesday once I can see exactly how quick Wilma will turn NE as she enters the Gulf Link
SO ANY ONE THINK THIS WILL BE A CAT 4 OR CAT 5 HURRICANE? AND IT IS TIME TO PLAY HOW LOW WILL THE MB GO LIKE 950MB I AM THNIK THIS IS THE WAY IT WIL GO


60 MPH 982MB

75 MPH 975MB

100 MPH 950MB

115 MPH 940MB

125 MPH 938MB

135 MPH 930 MB

145 MPH 925MB

155 MPH 915MB

165MB 907

175 MPH 900MB

I HOP NO KILL ME FOR THIS BUT WE WILL SEE HOW THIS STORM WILL GO SO LIKE I SAID BE FOR IT IS TIME TO PLAY HOW LOW WILL IT GO ANY ONE NO HOW BIG THIS STORM WILL GET AND IF ANY ONE NO THIS ? FOR ME LET ME NO
Bye Mandy!!! I am out as well....I'll check back in tomorrow.
Good night all!
LakeWorthFinn have a look at this Link

Zane, it's a phrase I came up with last year when we were staring down the barrel of Jeanne. We had just recently been told we were in the center of the Ivan cone at one point and we all know about Francis. When Jeanne came around, I needed to find a way to inject some humor into a bad situation. "Cone of doom" seemed to make everyone smile, so I use that now.
79! That heads my way!
Eeek!
Um... in meteorology, synoptic means: Of or relating to data obtained nearly simultaneously over a large area of the atmosphere.
Wow. Sorry finn. That was NOT the link I meant to place there. Try this one instead... Link
88888888 930 MB at 96 hours max strength
Tom Terry said Wilma is coming right at us here in Central Florida. -oh joy

JenD
::deploy the Cantore!!
Somemodels bring it up the east coast after Florida. I hope not.
MandyFSU, she will turn South of Tally I am pretty sure. More likely between the Big Bend and South Florida (Thats still a big area for now)
Some models*
Who came up with the BASIC SYNOPTIC REASONING? and I am equally inspired by WeatherDude's planned use of the term. I think I'll find a reason to use it tomorrow!
thx and hi hurigo, torn, hi to all others too, will answer mail now
Yeah, but she's gonna be a BIG girl... guess we'll have to wait & see.

Night all!
JenD...not good news for us.
I am out for the night, have a good one
But where is she coming???
She is going to go to Florida if you ask me.
Sub tropic--SO funny! you must be on the east coast of fl, then , right..
I am too... only up in Jax

My Brother in law lost his entire roof during Jeanne.. was NOT pretty...

Our weather guy just said that for now he is calling for an increase of clouds and rain for this weekend... How about that for an all emcompassing weather forcast.. No one knows what this one will do yet, I guess...

at least we are not in the "cone of doom" this time--yet
Correct zane. Southeast coast to be more specific. We were under the southern cdo and you can see from the pics in my gallery how bad it was in spite of that. This storm I am more concerned with rain. My house still has structural issues from Francis and Jeanne. Intense rain for any period of time could be a big problem. Wind I can handle. Of course, I fully expect the forecast track to keep changing, so no alarm bells going off yet. Glad you are out of this one at least for the moment.
AySz thanks for the definition. All kidding aside, I am interested in the "data over a large area of the atmosphere," as that is what guides the professionals in their predictions. With this storm,sounds like the forecast is based on the assumption that the high pressure ride will erode when the trof comes in from the left coast, allowing an opening to bring the storm north and then northeast, thus the forecast toward Florida.
396. code1
Hi Quake and tripleb,
Neighbors here. If the unthinkable happens and it heads our way, we need to exchange email addresses along with gbreeze and navarre to keep in touch! After Ivan, you know what I mean.
i have updated my blog with my wilma forecast and update
Man ol Man......Im walking in Tall cotton......whewwwwwwwww.....here comes WILMA....Ive been teased so much this year, I feel like Ive been to one of those there provocitive bars throwing dollars.......lol.........
.....to Move WNW , but that trough will progress East and erode the ridge over florida too. With that trough will come SW upper and mode level winds. Those winds should pick her up in the Gulf. "Just how sharp of a turn" as the NHC mentions is becasue we do not know how strong the SW winds will be over the Gulf in 96 hours.
Night all --- I will be check in tomorrow to see where the "cone of doom" has set it sights on... Have a good night..

I THIS LIKE TO PLAY HOW LOW WILL IT GO SO 930MB THAT WOULD MAKE WINDS AT 135MPH I TTHINK THAT A CAT 4 OR 140 OR 145 MPH MPH ANY THINK I AM RIGHT
My track does not include an inevitable right turn that Wilma will make in the Gulf: Link
David, I say it will drop to 120MB and the entire western hemisphere will be sucked into it as a result.
79 like ur track. i am posting in my blog now and if u want to stop be ur more than welcome to

lefty's blog
So where are you saying she is headed hurricane 79? We here in the panhandle get nervous when you point an arrow at us! LOL!
79. Nice work as usual.
gbreezegirl, she is not going to the Florida panhandle, she will be hitting the Florida peninsula West Coast, too early to exactly tell where
David. I hope you got a smile out of that. Just a little humor.
Thanks, i wish I knew more into the future so I could extend the track, but that will come with time...most likely 12 to 24 hours from now will shed more light on the landfall location
Thanks hurricane 79! Glad not to be in the "Cone of Doom" yet. Of course you know there is that rumor about the magnet over P'cola. (and the of course Ms. Abrams was in Gulf Shores all weekend - one has to wonder) LOL!
Yeah, i have a wedding to go to on Saturday on Madiera Beach, Florida along the Central West Gulf Coast of Florida. I wonder if she will be broadcasting on the beach during the wedding..LOL
Hi Guys,

Long time lurker..first post. Another neighbor from the panhandle. In Destin, appreciate everyone's links and input. It really helps!
If its global warming now. What was it in 1933?
I LOVED Madiera beach. I wanted to move my band there in the 90s. We almost did it. Do they still have that tremndous mini golf place by the beach?
DR JEFF HAVE A NEW POST
120MB AH AH THAT TOO FUNNY LOL NO WAY THAT WOULD BE A CAT 50
Look at the latest Floater IR and WV images - I predict Wilma achieves Cat 1 status tonight!

Below is a link the the Univeristy of Wisconsin's Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery shot of Wilma. Does anyone here have any idea what is happening to the left of Wilma in this image?? It sure isn't thunderstorms.........

Below is a link to a University of Wisconsin Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery shot of Wilma. Look at the strange occurance to the left of Wilma. I've never seen anything like it.......Does anyone have a clue as to what's happening in this image??

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2005_TWENTY-FOUR/webManager/displayGifsBy12hr_04.html