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Wilma--major threat to Honduras

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:34 PM GMT on October 17, 2005

Wilma is steadily intensifying. The hurricane hunters reached the storm at 4:05 pm EDT, finding maximum surface winds of 50 mph and a central pressure of 989 mb. Satellite imagery shows that deep convection is starting to wrap all the way around the center, and infrared imagery hints at a warm center spot where an eye may form by Tuesday. The hurricane hunters noted that spiral banding looked good, and satellite imagery also shows an impressive amount of spiral banding developing on all sides. The dry air intruding on the northwest side is starting to mix out, and upper-level outflow is well established on the south and east sides of the storm.

The upper level environment continues to look favorable for intensification, with low wind shear and an anti-cyclone on top generating good outflow. Intensification into a Category 3 hurricane by Thursday still seems like a good bet. Once Wilma gets further north into the Gulf of Mexico, shear increases as a upper-level trough of low pressure generates strong westerly winds over Wilma. This shear will likely reduce Wilma's winds by at least 20 mph.


Figure 1. Track of 1974's Hurricane Fifi, which killed over 8000 people in Honduras.

Steering currents are expected to remain weak the next two days, and some erratic motion is possible. All of the forecast models predict a generally west or west-northwest motion over the next two days. However, today's southerly motion at 2 - 5 mph is something none of the forecast models called for, except the UKMET model. This gives me some concern that Wilma may pass close enough to Honduras to create heavy downpours of 10 - 15 inches that would cause severe flooding and significant mudslides. It doesn't take a very strong hurricane to kill thousands in Honduras, as 1974's Category 2 Hurricane Fifi demonstrated. Hurricane Fifi moved along the north of the coast of Honduras at about latitude 16.1, bringing heavy rains of up to 24 inches that killed 8000 people. Wilma is currently at latitude 15.9, and looks like it will also be a Category 2 hurricane as it passes along the north shore of Honduras. Heavy rains will begin in northeastern Honduras tonight, and may well continue for three days. Hopefully, Wilma will pull north as forecast and not subject the entire coast of Honduras to flooding rains as Fifi did. I do expect severe flooding in northeast Honduras that will cause heavy loss of life. Better disaster prevention measures were implemented in Honduras after the devastation Hurricane Mitch wrought in 1998, so hopefully the government will be able to get the people in flood-prone areas to safe shelter and reduce the death toll.

Wilma presents it's next greatest threat to Mexico, which is still cleaning up the damage from Hurricane Emily earlier this year. Heavy rains in Belize, Nicaragua, and northern Guatemala may also create flooding problems in those nations. If Wilma grows large enough to tap the Pacific as a source of moisture, El Salvador and the southern portions of Guatemala hard-hit by Hurricane Stan may get addtional rains that could be a problem. However, the computer models are not indicating that this will happen.

The models have reached more of a consensus this afternoon on the longer term track of Wilma. After struggling mightily to properly resolve a weak trough of low pressure over the central U.S., the models now agree that this trough should be able to pull Wilma west-northwest by Tuesday. Later in the week, a strong low pressure system currently bringing rain to southern California is expected to move east and exert a strong pull on Wilma, turning her more northwest by Thursday. After Wilma makes a landfall near Cancun/Cozumel or a passage through the Yucatan Channel, the trough is expected to pull her northeastward, resulting in a landfall on the west coast of Florida somewhere between Key West and Tampa. The timing and location of the U.S. landfall forecasts look like this:

Candian model: Friday, Sarasota
GFS model: Saturday, Florida Keys
NOGAPS model: Saturday, Florida Keys
GFDL model: Sunday, Tampa
UKMET model: Wilma stalls out over the Yucatan at day 6; eventual track after that not known.

The NOAA jet is scheduled to make its first flight Tuesday afternoon, and we'll have a much better idea of the likely U.S. landfall point on Wednesday morning.

Elsewhere in the tropics, nothing else is happening. I'll be back with a update in the morning about 10 am EDT.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

after the wild shift in the cone of error... I don't know WHAT to think... The jet should answer some questions...
Cool.....thanks Dr.Masters........looking good for a florida landfall.....
yea, now i'm #2
Rats, #3!
#4 see you all tomorrow. It's about quittin' time here at the office.
Somewhere between Tampa and Keywest.....if you take the center......thats about Fort Myers............
Welcome BigKahuna! Drove by there yesterday. 79 don't like your link, but thanks. None of us will like any link pointing toward us, nature of the beast!
Lets hope the computer models don't start shifting further north, say Cedar Key.
Yikes! We're still cleaning up after Charley here in Charlotte county! I'm keeping my eye on this one. We used up all our hurricane supplies we got when we were threatened by Dennis. Get ready Sam's club!
I doubt it would be much worse than a mid-level Cat 1 if landfall occured in Florida. It will weaken over the Yucatan and then the environment will not be favorable over the Gulf (per Dr. Masters).

I live in Tampa and I am not worried, unless you live on the coast a Cat 1 does not pose much of a threat. I do not mean to minimalize the storm in any way, but at least we're not worrying about a Cat 4 or 5.



FXUS62 KMLB 171819
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
220 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2005

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...ANOTHER COMFORTABLE NIGHT FOR THE AREA AS SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A FEW MARINE STRATOCU LINGERING NEAR THE
EAST COAST. RELATIVELY WEAK GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME
LIGHT AND NORTHERLY WITH A FEW AREAS BECOMING CALM ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG IN SOME AREAS AGAIN TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL BE THE LIGHTEST. TEMPS
WILL DROP INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S ALONG SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS
WITH LOW-MID 60S ELSEWHERE AND A FEW UPPER 50S AGAIN IN NORTHERN
RURAL SPOTS.

TUESDAY...SFC RIDGE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF WILL ALLOW FLOW TO
BECOME EASTERLY DURING THE DAY. SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN ALONG THE SE
COAST DURING THE DAY WILL HELP DRAW IN MOISTURE FROM THE SE...BUT
THINGS WILL REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL REACH THE
MID-UPPER 80S THROUGH THE REGION...BUT WITH DEWPOINTS CREEPING BACK
UP TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN
HUMIDITY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.

TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT...WEAK INVERTED TROUGH PRODUCING SOME DISTURBED
WEATHER ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE
PENINSULA. HOWEVER...DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE SHOULD
STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST BUT WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY BELOW MAV
GUIDANCE.

THU-MON...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF TC
WILMA IN THE CARIBBEAN. AHEAD OF WILMA...DEEPEST MOISTURE ALONG
WITH THE STRONGEST GRADIENT FLOW WILL PRODUCE THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES SOUTH OF THE CAPE. MAIN STEERING INFLUENCE ON WILMA WILL BE
A LARGE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT GRADUALLY GIVES WAY
TO A CUTOFF LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST STATES. WHILE SOME
UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST WITH REGARD TO THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS
CYCLONE...THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT WILMA WILL MOVE VERY
SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...PEAKING
AT 10-15 KT. SWELL COMPONENT WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEK...
RESULTING IN A DECREASING THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS.

&&


.AVIATION...VRF CONDITIONS PERSIST UNTIL THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WHEN
SOME MVFR VSBYS MAY AGAIN OCCUR WITH FOG...ESP 10-12Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 62 84 67 86 / 0 0 0 10
MCO 63 88 68 89 / 0 0 0 10
MLB 67 85 72 86 / 0 0 20 20
VRB 67 85 73 88 / 0 0 20 20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GLITTO/MOSES


Hey hecker....how did you get that on here....I cant do that...it wont copy and paste..........
Im not thinking no more than 90-100mph per hour at landfall.....I will be surprised if makes major hurricane status.....
Look at the latest Floater IR and WV images - I predict Wilma achieves Cat 1 status tonight!
Thanks for your update Dr. M.
Looks like we won't really know anything concrete until Wednesday.
Wilma is spiraling and spinning faster than before, and it
is just tstarting the process of strenghtening to a major hurricane.

Meanwhile, taking a look at the GOES 10 WV loop, it looks
like that big California-Baja ULL "wheel" is finally stopped
retrograding and is just beginning to slowly move west.
This will set a series of events in motion that will effect
Wilma's path. Has Wilma dove too deep south for cover, so as
to miss the trough? Or will she be pulled inexorably
northwest and then northeast into the FLorida Coast? I
think the wheels are now turning to decide our fate...

"The Wheel"
Robert Hunter/Jerry Garcia/Bill Kreutzmann
(fragment)
The wheel is turning
and you can't slow down
You can't let go
and you can't hold on
You can't go back
and you can't stand still
If the thunder don't get you
then the lightning will

Round round robin run around
Gotta get back where you belong
Little bit harder, just a little bit more
Little bit farther than you than you've gone before

Small wheel turn by the fire and rod
Big wheel turn by the grace of God
Everytime that wheel turn round
You've got to cover just a little more ground
You've got to cover just a little more ground
Tonight it should really explode....the Diurnal Maximum about 3AM....bam,bam, bam....
weatherboy, have you been in that wind speed before?
Correction: "Meanwhile, taking a look at the GOES 10 WV loop,
it looks like that big California-Baja ULL "wheel" is
finally stopped retrograding and is just beginning to slowly move EAST."

English usage is sometimes more than mere taste, judgment and education -- sometimes it's sheer luck, like getting across the street.
--E. B. White, novelist
I thought diurnal was during the day. Day, flare up and nocturnal,at night, they relax. That storms wane and wax. (Aside: which is wane and which is wax.) BUT: do they always do that?
What are the chances the TROF will weaken once Wilma crosses Florida, causing her to stall? Or would she pick up steam and momentum and cruise across the state like Charley? Any guesses?
Thanks for correction GUYGEE. I was wondering about that. So, the California thing is coming east and that should start the northward pull, if it digs south enough?
Yes I have......
hurigo, systems over warm water do. The air above the storm cools at night, but because of the warm water keeping the surface temps higher, the clouds can really condense. That's not to say there won't be convection during the day also, but at night the temperature contrast really helps get it going again. Hope that helps.
Looks like wilma is going to hit around the weekend.....perfect for me.....and should come ashore somewhere near SW florida....only thing as far as chasing goes....she will be hauling a_____....so Ive got to be prepared......
for those who missed it, i hav updated my blog
As the Doc Masters said in his blog....the pressure is low, but relative the surrounding pressures, its not...hence, the winds are not hurricane force.....the difference in pressure creates the winds.......I got to the road.....but will be back tomorrow....and will hopefully be able to chase wilma.....seems like im always chasing skirts.......lol........she is hot isnt she....lol.......
Subtropic, that helps tremendously, and with your explanation, it really makes sense. I had it backwards. Having the right premise, does help one form the basic synoptic reasoning.
Sorry, weatherboy, none of my business. Just that when people state "only" as to wind speed, most have not been through it. Too tired and ugly to post anymore without offending anyone, but will continue to lurk and learn tonight. Have a good one everybody!
hurigo - Over land, the sun shines and heats the earth more
quickly than the atmosphere, creating instability and
typical afternoon storms. Over warm water, the situation is
reversed, at night the atmosphere loses heat more quickly
than the water, creating instability and instensification in
storms.

I have seen areas of convection that seem to pulse against
this diurnal period, as if in some sort of "breathing
inflow/outflow cycle" but the usual diurnal cycle is for
storms to increase in intensity over the tropics at night.


For example, East Coast of Florida. When we are under deep
Easterlies, we get early morning showers coming from the
ocean-side from instability over the Gulf streams, these
storms typically coming in from 3 AM -6AM or so. When
under the Westerlies (in rainy season), we usually get
storms from over the mainland that push over us sometime in
the afternoon (depending on the strength of the seabreeze).
code1....no problem.......i have been to quite a few storms......only a few did experience more than 100mph...its to dangerous......Ive seen my share.....be back tomorrow.......have a good evening........peace out.......
GuyGee. Very helpful explanation and example. I think I got it now. Thank you very much.
Later weatherboy.
Can someone post the spaghetti forcast track of Wilma?
Thanks :)
i have model tracks and forcast tracks on my blog. stop by some time

lefty's blog
hurigo - I believe it is that S.Cal Low that is supposed to be the kicker, if it indeed gets kicked itself by other systems
over the mid-pacific. Good to take a peek at the GOES 10 data
occasionally, unless you just trust the models.

Wax - Getting bigger (for the Moon, progressing towards the
full moon)

Wane - Weakening, getting smaller (for the Moon, past full
Moon progressing towards New Moon).
Here you go some models.........Link
FSUstormnut - Looks like the spaghetti got braided. We'll see if it gets a little frizzier on the next set of runs.
GuyGee you are providing exactly the type of information that I am looking for. Not that I do not trust the models, but that I want to see the big picture and understand what drives the models. And speaking of the moon, full moon, higher tides. Have to run outside to see what it is now. As a full moon Wilma hitting FLA or hitting Mexico will make a some difference?
And, how do I take a peak at the Goes 10 data?
Where does one find recon schedules and how does one know when VORTEXes come out?
One either goes here... Link or one goes to lefty's blog. Personally, I think you are better off with leftys blog.
AySz88, go to http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Click on left menu aircraft recon
Great, now I have to learn how to read the plan of the day? :p :p Thanks. :)
Muchas gracias. Hasta manana.
hurigo - Try RAMSDIS for both GOES 10 and GOES 12 (GOES 10 is the default). Also check tropical link for large-scale WV tropical Atlantic loop.

Main Page: Link



GuyGee, Thanks.
LEFTY: Couldn't resist checking your blog again before I departed. Great links, very helpful. Thank you.
WW - I don't see why Lefty refuses to post info here anymore, he can always go back to his own blog for some friendly chat, weather, football, computer games etc.

On the other hand, it was getting a little crowded in this space. When it gets too hot in here, I just go outside in the shade, and sip some of my special lemonaide, until I cool down ;-)

guy i still post here fromtimetotime. things like recon and stuff but when it comes to projections or conjecture i have left that for my blog. i incourage u to stop by some time.
Just A Quick Reminder:
If You New To WU or the WUBlogs,
Feel Free To Visit WhiteWabit's City/State Listing
Add Your Name/Location or See Where Other Bloggers Hail from.

Whitewabit's Blog is a Great Reference to Check On
Fellow WeatherUndergrounders, As Storms Pass Through.
We LOVE Newbies & First Time Posters!
I'd love to see that City/State listing by State/City/User Name. Inquiring minds want to know who their neighbors are!

Bradenton, FL
2ifbyc...look at whitewabit's blog...
2ifby I am from Palm Harbor, FL
venice!!!!!!!
aquak9,,

All I saw was a listing by User Name/City/State. Did I miss something? Wouldn't be the first time. 8-)
Sarasota here.
this is becoming hurricane wilma
hurigo - full moon was last night....believe me we have felt it at work (labor and delivery) :)
damn this doesnt look good for central fl .....mnaybe the red tide in the gulf will effect wilma ...maybe?
an eye is starting to peek out on the water vapor
Wilma is gonna hook up with Tampa. They are looong over due! this could be really bad!
maybe the red tide in the gulf will affect wilma? weakin it maybe?
At least the name fits a hurricane. Dr. Masters' posting about Fifi....who thought that was a good name for a hurricane.....

I think it's going to be a rainy weekend in Palm Beach Gardens
You know Wlima is really starting to look gooood on sat. this kinda scares me a little becuase every storm that has entered the gulf has exploded this year. This could really be the big one for Tampa.
I see the hint of an eyewall as well. Perhaps we are closer to a hurricane than the advisory suggests.
Whitewabit: Gulf Shores, AL
If she is not forming an eyewall, it is not from lack of trying matilda!
Its a tempest in a teapot. When the lid boils off it will move north. All that dense air & energy in the outflow has to go somewhere. It will add a kick to the high, energise the trof, & the storm moving north by that time will get a sudden shove to the east, but not uniformly. It will get tilted some, the more the better for Florida. Storms (eyes)(strong steering absent) don't like to cross land or higher terrain & also like to stay closer to the heat source. If enough shear hits while trying to cross Florida while trying to change direction suddenly & if Wilma weakens enough, it could get fractured as we have seen in the past with the LLC going one way, almost appearing to skip over Florida & reform in the Atlantic, & the rest of the storm going off in another direction. Wishing for no loss of life or property, only fun times for you chasers - ya durn fools. Why don't you rent a blimp & go check it out?
The next two sat shots will either verify or just another illusion.
"ya durn fools" Thanks for the laugh. Reminds me of my uncle when I was younger and went out in snow storms to see who was stuck and pull them out. Good memory lane trip.
It seems as though the models have shifted towards a Keys and Miami landfall. The only one to still show a Tampa area landfall is the GFDL. In recent history, how has the GFDL performed??
It's homecoming week at the school I teach at...I am going to be rained on again as well as being blown across the field.......I coach the cheerleaders....
I was a weather freak back home in Iowa. I could not sleep if there was a snowstorm coming. Would go outside all times of the day or night and enjoy it. Same goes for storms in the spring and summer, always looking for a tornado to form. Now I have to take sleeping pills if there is a threat of a hurricane coming to South Florida.
Hey skyepony check your blog. I'm going nutso worrying about Utila and my guy keeps telling me I'm overreacting. He's working on the boat this week. Ugh.
lol I think that just comes with age. Torn, you have mail.
Hmmm... good question, nash. I'm especially interested since St. Pete would take a hard hit if Wilma makes landfall in the Tampa Bay area. Anyone have performance info on the GFDL model?
I'm not liking this at all. I wonder should it make landfall in Tampa, will it move NE across florida or due E? If it moves due E, I have to be concerned for my folks on the treasure coast. Along with everyone else.

Hey Wiiiiiiiilllllmaaaaaaa go away!
hi all remember that it is to early to say where she is going to go. Models will flop back and forth NOAA plane out tommrow will get a better grip on it.
Tampa here so just as worried as everyone else.
Hey guys, I'm in Apollo Beach, just south of Tampa Bay. Just purchased my first house, so I am a little weary about the tracks lately. I am pretty adept at the tropics (last two years, plus I have decided to get the hell out of the network admin line of work and go to FSU for meteorology). Although, the more I think about this, this house is costing me a fortune (circa Money Pit???) Maybe a direct hit in Apollo Beach isn't such a bad thing... And I am kidding by the way. I DO NOT want a direct hit in Tampa! I figured I'd explain that before the hate responses came..
I continue to see a possible eye developing on Wilma. Turtle had also seen it before me. The CDO is completely around the center and in the middle the clouds seem to be thinning, perhaps suggesting an eye is forming.
Temps in the 50s after Wilma passes - Great for marathon training.
Bam, bam, bam-bam-bam!
nope it doesn't look like the eye yet
The results are in for the CSE calculation. The CSE predicts weather will happen tomorrow. And the day after too.
Read Steve Gregory's new post. He's very confident that Wilma will hit South Florida late on Saturday, at least a Cat 1 or more
Hiya from The Bahamas :)
My n-vidia graphics card just died; so I am reading all this in 16 colours :(
We are watching this one carefully here, too. Personally, during Michelle, I was stuck in a second storey apartment where my landlord refused to put up any shutters. No need for repeats here :(
Just curious, what happened to TheDiscussionBlog?
anyone here know why lefty thinks that RITA was a cat 4 even though the NHC says cat 2?
HEY wannabe my you made my evening lol
thanks bold - you like the space ghost?
ask him
yeah i do wannabe lol funny stuff
Great, now can we get back to Wilma, if everyone hasn't left already?
The 11 o'clock should be coming out soon.
Now it's moving to the west...Maybe its starting to turn?
it looks more stationary... or slightly to the west...
id guess 60mph at 11
Newest from NHC, no discussion yet:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2005

...WILMA STEADILY STRENGTHENING AND BEGINNING TO DRIFT WESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST OR ABOUT
250 MILES... 405 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT
205 MILES... 335 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH... 4 KM/HR... AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...
STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH... 100 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND WILMA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES... 110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...HAITI...AND SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HONDURAS.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...15.8 N... 80.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB
Link

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...15.8 N... 80.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.

11pm forecast maps ar out too: Link
new NHC 5-day track has moved WAY east too!
From 11 pm NHC Discussion:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0300Z 15.8N 80.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 18/1200Z 15.8N 80.7W 65 KT
24HR VT 19/0000Z 16.6N 81.7W 75 KT
36HR VT 19/1200Z 17.3N 82.8W 85 KT
48HR VT 20/0000Z 18.2N 83.7W 95 KT
72HR VT 21/0000Z 20.5N 85.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 22/0000Z 22.5N 85.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 23/0000Z 25.0N 82.5W 85 KT

Wilma will be a force to be reckoned with.
not for the US. Wilma will be exceptionally minor.
there will not be another major hurricane making US landfall this year.
Hey Wannabe, please lay off on Lefty. He's not even here. And none of us are experts - if we were we'd be at NHC and not posting here... :-)

Now as for your thoughts on Wilma being "exceptionally minor" is this gut feel of model based?
wannabe, were you hired to drive people away from discussing anything on Dr. Masters's blog? I mean, the leftyy-bashing is getting to such a rediculous level!

A *used-to-be* major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. is certainly possible, NHC seems to say. Might not be major at landfall, of course.
it's based on weather patterns, sheer, heat potentials and models. All things that certain weiners don't want to discuss becuause they have issues. Lefty is the one trying to kill this blog.
lefty is a baby - dont blame me
well holy sh*T looks like wilma has her eyes on my house again in south fla.. I went to work and it was yucatan maybe panhandle now its my house cat 3 well SHYT
lefty pops into this blog whenever he feels like he's being neglected. The guy has some serious issues.
you also seem to have issues wannabee
yeah I think weiner blowhards are funny
Posted By: leftyy420 at 3:46 AM GMT on October 16, 2005.
iam notposting in dr.masters blog anymore
here is the official Wilma Wannabee forecast. wilma will strike extremem southern Florida at cat 1 strength, cause minimla damage and surge and then scoot off into the Atlantic where she will die after grazing Bermuda.
Come on Wannabe, get a grip.

Still want to hear more about the "exceptionally minor" comment. Seems to me that Wilma will speed up once she's through Yucatan Channel, and that while weakening she'll be a force to be reckoned with. In my view there's no such thing as a "minor hurricane"... - they're all big mean storms, some bigger and meaner than others.
Interesting how you can see a "dam" of high pressure
blocking the Yucatan straits in the WV loops, due to the
interaction of Wilma's ULH and the Gulf high. It appears as
a SE-facing arc blocking Wilma from moving NW (for now).

The SoCal ULL has a definite tropical moisture connection
that is being pulled into Gulf high, the high seems weaker
and not as dry, but Wilma still is going to have to eat
some more dry air before it can rapidly intensify. Wilma's
circulation is now definitely pulling some Pacific moisture
itself from the SW.

In the Pacific there is an approaching front and another
behind with a yet another tight little ULL looking poised to
drop down the California coast. The "kickers" are coming,
should see some good movement by tomorrow.

The NHC "further east" track probably depends on when Wilma
finally starts some significant motion towards the N (and
how much farther west she drifts beforehand). Sooner, more
left, later, more right. Also important will be the
latitude and strength of the Atlantic high that is supposed
to poke west over the Florida Peninsula. The extended
forecast cone is spread all the way from landfall at Cape
Blas to an exit off the NE Cuba coast and out to sea.

We've got a long ways to go folks...
wannabe, throw down your hatred, its over.

I thought it all started by you complaining about Lefty posting big images. At least his had something to do with weather!

Yours is more like "personel vendetta SPAM", and Lefty probably isn't even looking anymore.
Well wannabe, I'm off too, after this latest drivel. I'm sensing some serious blog envy. Have fun here.
snowboy what should I grip? There is nothing remotely intersting about Wilma besides the fact that it is the 'W' storm. She will have a short and uneventful life. The rest of this season will not be worthy of long days of waiting for the new VORTEX. It's over, people, move on with your lives.
Okay, just stop trying to incite reactions; if you don't mean to incite reactions, then post your thoughts with logical reasoning and stop bashing leftyy at every turn.

I fail to see any logical reason why everyone should not respect leftyy's opinion. (And respecting his opinion does not mean ignoring that he is not an expert and does not mean that one should take everything he says as fact; it only means allowing him to describe and defend his opinions.) I don't fail to see why he might "have problems" if he continually gets hounded and bullied like the way he's been getting treated.
ahhhh, yer all right. Shoot. Now I feel bad.
wannabe - Here is the link to moveon.org

Link

And yes, I gave at the office.
Q. What does this make LEFTY?

Posted By: leftyy420 at 3:46 AM GMT on October 16, 2005.
iam notposting in dr.masters blog anymore

Posted By: leftyy420 at 11:25 PM GMT on October 17, 2005.
guy i still post here fromtimetotime. things like recon and stuff but when it comes to projections or conjecture i have left that for my blog. i incourage u to stop by some time.

A. A weiner




Posted By: weatherwannabe at 3:46 AM GMT on October 18, 2005:
"lefty 1. is rarely right, 2. refuses to admit it, 3. weasels his way around the blog to avoid admitting 1 or 2, and 4."

Is this multiple choice? Yeah, Lefty could get testy, but I don't see him here much anymore...wannabe, you've "won". Enough already.
But Guy, I wasnt the one that ran him off. Someone else did it - I wasn't even around.
Wannabee you seem to have some sort of infatuation with wieners
LMAO that was funny Hurriphoon
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM WANNABE VS LEFTY ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2005

...WANNABE STEADILY STRENGTHENING AND BEGINNING TO DRIFT WESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LEFTY FROM THE WANNABE BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE WANNABE ISLANDS.
Maybe true, there was a lot of flaming, but can we just let it go? Lefty has a different blog, and he's drwn a lot of people over ther with him. I don;t mind at all if posts recon and such here, and people irritated by his prognostications can just ignore his blog.

I always enjoyed this George Carlin bit on censorship:

"Keep in mind these Reagan people were the ones that were going to get government off our backs. Remember that? That was the rhetoric of the 1980 campaign: 'We'll get government off your back and out of your lives.' Yeah, but they want to tell you what magazines you can read, and they still want to tell you what rock lyrics you can listen to, and they still want to force your kids to pray in school, and they still want to tell you what you can say on the radio! The FCC, the Federal Communications Commission, decided all by itself that radio and television were the only two parts of American life not protected by the free speech provisions of the First Amendment to the Constitution. I'd like to repeat that because it sounds vaguely important:

The FCC, an appointed body, not elected, answerable only to the President, decided on its own that radio and television were the only two parts of American life not protected by the free speech provisions of the First Amendment to the Constitution!

Why did they decide that? Because they got a letter from a reverend in Mississippi! A reverend Donald Wildman in Mississippi heard something on the radio that he didn't like... Well reverend, did anyone ever tell you that there are two knobs on the radio? Two knobs on the radio! Course, I'm sure the reverend isn't too comfortable with anything that has two knobs on it... Well hey, reverend, there are two knobs on the radio! One of the turns the radio off, the other changes the station! Imagine that, reverend! You can actually change the station! It's called freedom of choice, and it's one of the principles this country was founded on! Look it up in the library, reverend, if you have any of them left when you've finished burning all the books!"

- George Carlin, What Am I Doing In New Jersey?
Yeah, I thought there was some sort of Puppy Love thing going on between you two.
Hey Florida...BOHICA!!!
LEFTY refuses to leave the blog - he needs a LOT of attention

Q. What does this make LEFTY?

Posted By: leftyy420 at 3:46 AM GMT on October 16, 2005.
iam notposting in dr.masters blog anymore

Posted By: leftyy420 at 11:25 PM GMT on October 17, 2005.
guy i still post here fromtimetotime. things like recon and stuff but when it comes to projections or conjecture i have left that for my blog. i incourage u to stop by some time.

A. A weiner
flip flop

LEFTY's ORIGZINAL BLOG

"I am no longer posting to Master's Blog"

About 6 hours ago (when nobody was giving LEFTY any attention - boohoohoo)

Posted By: leftyy420 at 11:25 PM GMT on October 17, 2005.
guy i still post here fromtimetotime. things like recon and stuff but when it comes to projections or conjecture i have left that for my blog. i incourage u to stop by some time.
Q: wannabee posting the same pictures and comments
A: a weeeeeeeeeeeener
nah those pics are funny
What to consider when posting in blogs?
"Rule 1. Ignore the blog trolls. Mind the sentence "Don't feed the trolls!", it only incites them to go on. Just do not answer, it is attention they want to attract. When they are ignored it is most likely they lose interest in this kind of conduct."

G'night all!
good points guy. Goodnite
OK CAN WE STOP TALKING ABOUT LEFTY FOR ONE SEC AND TALK ABOUT WILMA!!!!! NEW GFS IS OUT 00Z AND IT IS GOING OVER KEYS RIGHT INTO SOUTH FLA Link
Vortex Data Message
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT12 KNHC 180427
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/04:09:20Z
B. 15 deg 39 min N
079 deg 52 min W
C. 850 mb 1309 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 058 deg 055 kt
G. 314 deg 009 nm
H. 984 mbI. 19 C/ 1524 m
J. 21 C/ 1521 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF309 0424A WILMA OB 08
MAX FL WIND 55 KT NW QUAD 04:06:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 22 C, 299 / 6NM


Vortex Data Message
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT12 KNHC 180427
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/04:09:20Z
B. 15 deg 39 min N
079 deg 52 min W
C. 850 mb 1309 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 058 deg 055 kt
G. 314 deg 009 nm
H. 984 mb
I. 19 C/ 1524 m
J. 21 C/ 1521 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF309 0424A WILMA OB 08
MAX FL WIND 55 KT NW QUAD 04:06:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 22 C, 299 / 6NM


SORRY ABOUT THE DOUBLE POST..WILMA HAS DROPPED 5 MB IN 2 HRS WOW RAPID INTENSIFYING
984 mb - looks like Wilma will be a hurricane soon.
Hello.
I signed up for this website a few days ago because some one I love may be in harms way in the caribbean. I am trying to get as much information as possible, as I know very little about "weather". I'm sure both lefty and wannabe are very nice people. This is my first experience with a hurricane and my first time on a blog of any kind. You have no idea how it comes across to people who don't know any of you and who are just looking for information. I'm respectfully asking you to please stop bickering and arguing. Please.
CALGAL WHAT CAN I HELP U WITH SWEETIE
I think he's going to be OK, I had a nice chat with Skyepony earlier. He's working on a dive boat this week off of Utila, a tiny island off the coast of northeastern Honduras. Dr. Master's message frightened me quite a bit. I have no way to contact him, so I'm just sitting here hoping he calls and tells me he's OK. It's going to be a very long week.
i am sure they are hunkered down out there and out of harms way
calgal. Is this a commercial dive boat, or something private?
It's affiliated with a small hotel down there. I think it's called the Utila Dive Center. So I would think they would be well aware of the potential weather issues. But even if he's not diving, if a giant deadly hurricane sweeps over the island....
sounds like he's working on a dive certification. If its recreational why would you even worry? Commerical fisherman are in far far greater danger everyday.
Why hasnt he called you
I'm worried because I'm completely ignorant of what a hurricane is capable of, other than the terrible statistics I have read about Mitch and Fifi etc etc. It's such a small island, there would be nowhere for him to go. You all seem to have a lot of experience and if you think he's safe there, then it makes me feel a lot better.
Calgal, just call them in the morning and see what's up:
Alternatively, contact us by..

E-mail at dive@utilawatersports.com.

Our postal address is Utila Water Sports, Utila, Bay Islands, Honduras, CA.

Phone us on (+504) 425 3264.

Or fax us on (+504) 425 3239.
He did call today, but he just assured me that the weather was fine at the time, other than some rain, and that his hotel was not on the beach. Internet connections are sporadic and he doesn't make it to an internet cafe very much anyway. He told me not to worry but I still do.
Thanks Hurriphoon. Do you have a dive shop on Utila? I'd rather contact your dive site than try and contact him over and over. I don't want him to get sick of me pestering him.
Is he your husband?
Here are the latest models.



Click here for more images, links.



Some landfall possibilities:

GFDL, Ft Myers, 10/22 5AM EDT.

NoGaPS, Naples, 10/22 7PM EDT.

GFS, Marathon, 10/22 1PM EDT.

BAMM, Ponce de Leon Bay/Everglades, 10/22 6PM EDT.
Not my husband. I wish. If you have some advice on that action plan I'd be glad to hear it. But right now I'm off to bed.

Thanks for all your advice, all of you. I'll go back to sitting on the sidelines now, unless I get freaked out again. I'm born and raised in California and not too well travelled. I have enjoyed learning so much from you all over the past few days. It's fascinating.
See ya.
i got a new post out and it is a fun one to take a look any one
LOOKIE WHAT THE GFDL IS DOING...SOUTH FL STORM???


Image hosted by Photobucket.com


seems like there is a bit of a chance the nhc could give this 75mph winds at 2am based on the central pressure drop... of course they dont like upgrading without flight level winds that prove it. They also dont like strenghtening storms too much on partial advisories. They could just keep it the SQ or nudge it up to 70.
Not really crazy about that GFDL track. That puts us on the south side and it looks like the GFDL is moving it at a pretty good clip. Forward speed gets added to sustained winds (whatever they are at that point). Could be some nasty gusts. On the other hand, there would have to be some serious sheer going on in that scenario. Maybe not so much sustained wind to add on to? Ftl, your thoughts?
i need to see consistancy in the model runs... The new GFS just came out and its much slower than previous runs..I do belive this is a florida storm but where in FL is up in the air
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/05:56:30Z
B. 15 deg 40 min N
079 deg 56 min W
C. 850 mb 1278 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 241 deg 065 kt
G. 152 deg 009 nm
H. 982 mb
I. 15 C/ 1530 m
J. 23 C/ 1521 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF309 0424A WILMA OB 14
MAX FL WIND 65 KT SE QUAD 05:53:30 Z
RADAR PRESENTATION POOR DUE TO ATTENUATION

wow wilma is rapidly deepening.
anybody looking for info or have any questions on wilma please stop by my blog. all are welcome

lefty's blog
TIme to due diligence and batten down the hatches! This could be a major storm when it hits florida

** DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES 1 Degree Fahrenheit ** :-|)

http://www.wunderground.com/US/CA/Los_Angeles.html

Hey did some Hollywood dude leave their champagne icebucket under the wunder thermometer ? :-)

Or is the Hurricane cooling things down in the peripheries?



Remember if you are in the 5 day forecast spot you will not be hit... That is how it has been all year! I still see Wilma not turing as sharp and going to Tampa
im gonna say shes a cane
Tropical Storm Wilma Intermediate Advisory Number 11a

Statement as of 8:00 am EDT on October 18, 2005
...Wilma begins to drift northwestward...

a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Honduras from the Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Cabo camaron.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for the Cayman Islands.

Wilma is expected to become an intense hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. All interests in western Cuba...the Yucatan Peninsula...the Florida Peninsula...and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Wilma during the next several days.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

At 8 am EDT...1200z...the center of Tropical Storm Wilma was located near latitude 15.9 north...longitude 80.2 west or about 245 miles ...400 km...south-southeast of Grand Cayman and about 210 miles... 335 km...east-northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua /Honduras border.

Wilma has been drifting northwestward over the past several hours...and a slow motion to the west-northwest or northwest is expected over the next 24 hours. However...steering currents remain weak and erratic motion is possible.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph...110 km/hr...with higher gusts. Wilma is expected to become a hurricane today.

Reports from NOAA buoy 42057 indicate that tropical storm force winds associated with Wilma are expanding...and now extend outward up to 125 miles ...200 km from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb...28.94 inches.

Wilma is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the Cayman Islands...Jamaica...Haiti...and southeastern Cuba...with isolated amounts of 8 to 12 inches possible. Rainfall accumulations of 2 to 3 inches...with isolated amounts of 6 to 10 inches...are possible over Honduras.

Repeating the 8 am EDT position...15.9 N... 80.2 W. Movement ...Drifting northwest. Maximum sustained winds... 70 mph. Minimum central pressure...980 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11 am EDT.

Forecaster Franklin


$$
You all give me input of the chances of Wilma hopping over Keys and then forming again and coming towards NC coast.
Here in Palm Harbor (about 30 miles west of Tampa), we're hoping Wilma makes a hard right once she enters the gulf. Otherwise, our luck might have run out. Hasn't been a full-scale evacuation here since Elena in '85. Three bridges/causeways won't be able to empty the barrier islands after 20 years of development, so many could be stuck in their high-rises.
anyone want to take a stab at the predicted path and strength?
Good morning guys. Another interesting/nerve wracking day ahead...

Cane-- This is just a stab, but I do believe landfall will be between Tampa and Venice as a strong CAT 2 or weak CAT 3.
Wilma to hit Bedrock as a Cat 3 Hurricane-osaurus.
Very funny.
caneman,

Wilma as a Cat5 in Rock Vegas (LOL), Seriously I tend to think its going where most of the models say its going to go. But I am not making any offical predictions until tommorrow.
jesus christ...i sit here scrolling down, and i see wannabe bitching again...is that all you and you few friends on here can ever do? if its not political, then it has to do with lefty. do you have any good weather-related stuff to post? Or do you just sit there waiting to see something you can complain about? its a fvckin joke if you ask me and about 75% of the people who use this blog as well...I am gone for 2 weeks on business, come back..and nothing has changed...lol... what a waste of typing space...lol
Assuming that say it hits Tampa area as a cat 3 then moves across FL......this of course is simply an assumption......what do you think the wind speeds could be on the E coast of fl when the storm exits the state?
watching... geez, what is your problem? talk about complaining.....
Riverluvr, one October hurricane went across Florida turned north and eventually hit Maryland in 1901. All the others went out to sea, caught in the westerlies. I think the chance of the east coast getting hit from the Atlantic are remote. Of course the storm could travel up the eastern seaboard as a depression and cause heavy rain and flooding, which has happened a number of times, but not much chance as a hurricane coming of the ocean.
lol...yes...that was a complaint...one of maybe 3 I have ever typed in this blog...and this complaint was/is not to start anything (arguement or otherwise)... It is meant to end it...and it being all the grade school bickering that goes on...keep track of wilma, not lefty...lefty doesnt come in here often anymore...and neither do alot of other people because of all the bickering... so as an ending and to say it again...that post was to say stop with the childish behavoir and talk about weather, is that too much to ask, or no???....anyways thats all the "complaining" you'll see from me for some time....carry on..lol...and wilma will be a cane at next advisory...lol...will make no predictions on track till later this afternoon...and if this long blog has irratated or pissed others off, i do apologize once again...lol
On a lighter note, Good morning Billsfan!
Seems things are not looking to good for the sunshine state this morning.
Hi all! Just saw the latest models (I think) seems that wouthwest florida is under the gun- for now at least. We know how these things can change- look at Katrina!
Goodmorning!!!...Alittle update this morning on Wilma..She is finally on the move and almost a hurricane..She has begun her NW track towards the Yucatan channel and should be a hurricane by 11AM adv...Here are the rundown of all the model landfalls...

GFS, Canadian, NOGAPS:..Naples
FSU, UKMET:..Florida Straits near Key West.
GFDL:..Tampa

The SHIPS and the GFDL bring her to CAT 3 strength at landfall..

Again my thinking is this figure is alittle too high and I am still leaning towards a CAT1/2 at landfall due to increasing shear when she gets into the Gulf..

As far as landfall, Naples to Key West is my points right now, but again we still may see this get shifted even more southward during the day and the Florida straits are still not out of the question.. As far as the East Coast of Florida..Ft.Pierce southward would be affected...

Of course the only fly in the ointment has been that persistent GFDL taking it more north, we will have to see if this model comes into better agreement with the rest today..But again all of the west coast of Florida is still in the cone so everyone must be aware and monitor the situation.
morning all,hey hokie,im a terrapin who lives in coastal n.c. i hope we give you a better game thurs.then we did lastyear.lol
Hey Weatherguy. I could easily be wrong, but I just can't see such a severe right hook into the Key West area. The GFDL may not be that out to lunch on this one. Just a hunch.
I am a regular reader of Dr. Masters blog, but very rarely do I read these comments, and never do I post, but, I must agree with watchingnva, too much bitching and childish posting in here.

i hang out in bob's chatroom at the weather community and, yes, we get trolls, but we either run them off or ban them, keeps things on topic when they need to be.

just my 2 cents worth.
so hows everyone doing this morning...any thoughts on landfall and what time frame we will be getting that landfall...and i dont think that a cat3 is too high... she should have time to strenghten dramatically in the caribbean the next 2 days...then lose a little punch as she enters the cooler gulf and more hostile environment near the coast of florida...so i think 110-120mph isnt out of the question here...we'll just have to wait and see...
Morning, everyone!

Looks like Wilma is going to hit Florida... where o' where is the question. The Skeeter pix has her coming over all the sofla morning groups homes...

Link
In the link I just posted, I'm between Coral Springs and Deerfield Beach. If you look closely you'll see me waving :)
I still think that is too far south. More towards Sarasota seems likely.
It all depends on when that jet stream gets down here. Does anyone know if it is moving as fast as, slower than, or faster than they have expected? I guess the faster it comes, the more south Wilma will go.
Good question Coconut. Can anyone tell via the water vapor imagery whether the system out of Cali is ahead of the storm or behind?
Nash, just an amateur here. Here's bastardi's free sample take on Wacky Wilma....

In Florida, I expect a hurricane hit with sub 950 pressures and most of the coast from Cedar Key to Jacksonville to have at least hurricane-force gusts. I have a landfall 3:00-9:00 a.m. Sunday between Tampa and Key West and an exit within 25 miles of Cape Canaveral 12-15 hours later. Unlike the fist of fury that was Charley, this will be more of a large-scale brawler, much like Isabel. Also unlike Charley, which underachieved and disappeared farther north, this is likely to help produce plenty of wind and rain farther north.
Is that Bastardi's post from today?
Nash: if you are still there, talk to you later. Gotta run. We'll know more in an hour. I hope they can narrow the cone of doom down a bit.
Yeah, go to accuweather.com and there's a pretty pix of him saying "read my .. for free today"
The #1 lesson I've learned from this season (Besides the ever popular "It ain't over till it's over.") is that those storms never do what they're told. Katrina was posed to hardly come off the coast of Florida, but it ended up going in @ LA. It slowed down, went southwest when it was posed to northwest... zigged when it shoulda zagged... know what I mean? I'm just afraid it's a crap shoot until she hits the tip of the Yucatan and we can see where she is in proximity to the California factor... but that's just me...
I THINK DR JEFF SHOULD STEP IN WITH LEFTY, I THINK IT IS WRONG FOR HIM TO TRY TO BE A FRONT SEAT FORECASTER, SO TO SPEAK. DR JEFF SHOULD BE CONCERNED NO COLLEGE DEGREE AND HE IS TRYING TO MAKE FORECASTS (WHICH ARE JUST WAY OFF), THERE COULD BE NEWBIES WHO THINK HE IS A METEOROLOGIST AND TAKE HIS BS SERIOUSLY. LEFTY YOU HAVE ISSUES, YOU NEED TO BE HEARD YOU NEED TO BE MAKING PREDICTIONS, ITS WEIRD.


PLEASE IF YOU WANT TO FORECAST.... FINISH COLLEGE AND START YOUR OWN BLOG.... TX

LEFTY IS A JOKE!!!
ok wannabe/fagfrog...lol...anyways...as to the post b4 of bastardis...i seriously dont see this storm effecting the mid-atlantic/northeast much at all unless something drastically changes...just my 2 cents, what do yall think??
Just in case there's anyone checking in foir info, here's the 11 am NHC discussion. Batten down the hatches in south Florida for the weekend!

HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005

WILMA IS BEING UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS OF T4.0 FROM ALL AGENCIES...AND OBJECTIVE T NUMBERS
FROM UW/CIMSS OF T4.5 SINCE 09Z. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO BE IN THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. COLD CONVECTION IS
BEING MAINTAINED OVER THE CENTER...AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
CHANNELS CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AHEAD OF WILMA IS HIGH. THE ONLY INHIBITING
FACTOR IS THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE GULF AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN...BUT THE LARGE AND GROWING CIRCULATION OF WILMA SHOULD
BE ABLE TO KEEP MUCH OF THIS AIR FROM REACHING THE CORE. A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT WILMA WILL BE A MAJOR
HURRICANE WHEN IT ENTERS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS WILMA
ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WIND SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...BUT THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH OF IT TO
WEAKEN WILMA VERY QUICKLY. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH REMEMBERING THAT
THERE IS LITTLE SKILL IN LONG-RANGE INTENSITY FORECASTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 320/5. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST THINKING. THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
THAT HAD BEEN OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS NOW MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD...AND AS IT PROGRESSES HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...ALLOWING WILMA TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN
ABOUT THREE DAYS. ONCE WILMA MOVES NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW...AN ACCELERATION
NORTHEASTWARD IS EXPECTED. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AND
REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.

WILMA...THE 12TH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...TIES THE RECORD FOR MOST
HURRICANES IN A SEASON SET IN 1969.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/1500Z 16.5N 80.6W 65 KT
12HR VT 19/0000Z 17.0N 81.2W 75 KT
24HR VT 19/1200Z 17.7N 82.3W 90 KT
36HR VT 20/0000Z 18.5N 83.5W 100 KT
48HR VT 20/1200Z 19.6N 84.5W 105 KT
72HR VT 21/1200Z 22.0N 85.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 22/1200Z 24.0N 84.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 23/1200Z 28.5N 78.5W 75 KT
217. a22
i live in miami do you think i will go under any watches or warnings
Would you go to Cancun?

I live in New Orleans--evacuated to Texas from Katrina--then left Texas becasue of Rita. Thought it was dumb luck. Now I am supposed to to to Cancun in the morning for a well needed vacation paid for 6 months ago....WOULD YOU GO?
No sick of running, go to Iraq