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Wilma still pounding Mexico; Alpha a major to threat to Haiti

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:57 PM GMT on October 21, 2005

The eye of very dangerous Category 3 Hurricane Wilma remains onshore the Yucatan mainland near Cancun. The most extreme winds of the eyewall have now been battering Cozumel and the mainland Yucatan Peninsula for over 24 hours. Sustained winds of 100 - 140 mph affecting a built-up resort area like Cozumel/Cancun for so long must have done extreme damage. Wilma has weakened to a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds, and will further weaken to a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds today as its center remains over land. Still, the damage to Mexico may double today as structures already weakened by 24 hours of relentless winds continue to receive another 12 hours of stress, and as new areas along the north coast of the Yucatan receieve the eyewall's worst pounding.

Cancun radar, which is miraculously still functioning, shows the the eyewall of Wilma is degrading and starting to show gaps. The eye is now filled with clouds, and the cloud top temperatures of her eyewall clouds continue to warm as Wilma steadily weakens. When Wilma finally moves back over the ocean late tonight, she will probably be a weak Category 2 hurricane with 95 mph winds.

Conditions in Cancun
Wunderblogger LizinCancun reported yesterday on conditions in Cancun:


"We evacuated our home in Cancun yesterday and came 200 miles west to Merida. Our home sits about 100 feet away from the beach. The waves were crashing over our 6 foot tall sea wall yesterday before we left and destroyed the palapa that sits about 10 feet out in the water. We fully expect our home and all our belongings to be gone. We lost contact with all of our friends that stayed, cell and land lines are down of course as is power. We just talked with a friend that says the power is out, phones only working when the generators are running to pump out all the water. He said the hotel is blowing apart (not in the hotel zone) and all you can see when looking outside is a wall of water blowing sideways and pieces of things being shredded by the high winds, some huge."



>b>Figure 1. Total rainfall for the week. Image generated by NASA's TRMM rainfall measuring satellite.

A deluge of rain
Rainfall amounts in Mexico from Wilma have been extreme. Isla Mujeres, just offshore from Cancun, has reported almost 35" of rain over the past 1 1/2 days, and at one point reported 4" of rain in one hour between 2 and 3 am EDT today. Rainfall amounts in Cuba have not been nearly so extreme--at least in the areas of western Cuba that are still reporting data. San Juan y Martinez measured 10.7 cm (4.2 inches) of rain the past 24 hours, and storm total rainfall amounts of up to 18 cm (7 inches) have been measured in Cuba's westernmost province. Grand Cayman received five inches, Jamaica's Kingston airport eight inches, and Belize four inches. The north coast of Honduras has had numerous locations receive ten inches of rain, with one unofficial report of 20 inches. Rainfall in Haiti reached 8 - 10 inches, and, triggered flash floods that killed 11 people.

How will Wilma affect Florida?
The latest 2 am EDT (06Z) model runs are in, and continue to agree on the basic scenario that Wilma will move offshore the Yucatan late tonight as a weak Category 2 hurricane. On Sunday, the storm will move slowly north and then northeast as westerly winds from a strong trough of low pressure start affecting the storm. There is about an 18-hour window of opportunity for Wilma to re-intensify to a Category 3 hurricane on Sunday. By Sunday night, the Wilma will begin to accelerate, and wind shear will begin to substantially weaken the storm. By Monday morning, Wilma will cross the west coast of Florida between Fort Myers and the Keys as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane. My best guess is that Wilma will be a 100-mph Category 2 hurricane hitting near Marco. Storm surges tend to be worse with large and faster moving hurricanes, so I would expect a storm surge characteristic of a Category 3 hurricane, 10 to 16 feet, in and south of Marco, causing very heavy damage in that city. Fortunately, the area south of Marco is primarily uninhabited--the Everglades swamp. However, if Wilma comes ashore north of Naples--or further south near the Keys--storm surge flood damage in those areas could easily reach billions of dollars. Storm surge flooding should be only 2 - 4 feet on the east coast of Florida, where wind damage is the primary threat.


Figure 2. Storm surge map for southwest Florida.

Wilma's winds and rain
Wilma will be moving too fast to dump more than 5 - 10 inches of rain. The rain will be concentrated on the north side of the hurricane, since there will be a cold front there that will trigger more condensation. Areas to the north of the eye's passage will see winds a full Category--25 to 30 mph--lower than those on the south. This is because the storm's high rate of forward motion, near 25 - 30 mph, will add to the windspeeds seen on the south side of the Wilma's counterclockwise rotation, and subtract on the north side. Since the storm will be moving so fast, the duration of hurricane force winds will be just a few hours.

After Florida, then what?
After crossing Florida, Wilma should bring tropical storm force winds to the northern Bahama Islands, but not hurricane force winds. Wilma should pass close enough to North Carolina's Outer Banks to bring 40 mph winds there.
Wilma is not expected to bring high winds to New England, but could bring 50 mph winds to Nova Scotia five days from now.

TD 25
Tropical Depression 25 has formed 200 miles southwest of Puerto Rico, and looks like a good bet to develop into a tropical storm later today. Long range radar from San Juan, Puerto Rico shows some increasing spiral banding and echo intensity, and satellite imagery shows a good outflow channel developing to the southeast. Wind shear of about 10 knots is eroding the northwest portion of the storm.

Since we are all out of names this year, TD 25 will be given the name Alpha should it develop into a tropical storm. Given the storm's expected track over Haiti, the 8 - 12 inches of rain expected may cause heavy loss of life in that country due to the inability of the deforested hillsides to handle flood waters.

I'll be back in the morning with the latest, or later today, if events warrant.

Jeff Masters
Waves crash over 30 ft cliff due to Wilma
Waves crash over 30 ft cliff due to Wilma
Normally calm seas turn angry in Negril, Jamaica.
Wilma in Cozumel
Wilma in Cozumel
Roof top view looking south, almost a white-out

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

wow!
You can see the Cancun radar at my blog site:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/dracko19/show.html
*shivers*
The above original post was at 1:14 CDT on 10/20/05 and a lot sent in their $5. Remember, what would we being doing now without WU?
Link

Accuweather's path shows wilma going southof Florida.......can this be?
Windnwaves should definitely go elsewhere to read and post, as I am sure most would agree with me that Wunderground is the best bargain around. It has been so very valuable to me that I cannot thank them enough.
Goodbye windnwaves.
And to Wunderground, I think you should charge all to sign up and read or post. $10 would be very fair. $5 quite a bargain.
The latest VORTEX shows lower pressure. Not much, but it is scary.
Hi all! I knew I didn't trust Wilma. She is a bad bad girl. Frankly, I don't care what they say she will be at landfall in FL. I am prepping like it's a cat5 because nobody really has a handle on what she will do. Nothing would surprise me.
it all depends on how far south the trough (upper levels) and canadian high (lower levels) intrude. if these features go south relatively quickly, and further south, then wilma would get pushed more towards the keys/cuba. come south slower, then wilma turns later and hits the peninsula straight up.
caneman, it states that the path will mostly be between the keys and ft myers.
Hello caneman,

Not certain what you mean concerning AccuWeather's path. Certainly, their best guess puts Wilma barely south of Florida but, the cone of "uncertainty", is what you have to watch at this point.
Caneman is trying to see the glass as half full.
Being new to this stuff I can never be sure of what I think I'm seeing. But, the latest loop images appear to have Wilma stalling with the eye smack over Cozumel. How wild would that be, to have a major hurricane stall for a while with you being stuck right in the eye.
sngalla.. "between Fort Myers and the Keys" ... sounds like us..
Mishnook, I was thinking the same thing.
Gotta run, all - it's my mom's b-day.
Hurry, I agree. If they charged, those truly interested would jump at that rate. Can't get this much info for that price elsewhere. It is beyond me why people will not do $5. Most waste more than that per day! Healthcare here, have had zero knowledge about tropical weather until now, still next to zero, but learning all the time due to WU. If they made it mandatory, we wouldn't have to deal with those who are just "users and abusers" as I posted yesterday.
Cancun Weather Data Updated each 10 minutes!!!

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/productos/emas/txt/QR01_10M.TXT
Waiting for the rest of my family before I go, so I went ahead and paid my $5. No ads is actually a very cool perk. Plus, it may be my imagination, but I think the site loads faster!
No replies? Sure hope it means most of you have jumped on the bandwagon and anted up your 5 bucks!
Rain in Cancun: 25 in and counting
I don't know, Code1. I suspect a lot of people stumble across this place, learn some new things, and then get hooked. If they charged for all access people wouldn't have access to the great info here. Especially in times like this when new faces looking for info important to their familes and homes tend to emerge. Although, they could let anyone lurk but require membership for posting. Just a thought...
Yeah, billsfan, we are going to put the shutters up tomorrow.
Good one Coco!
jajuvera, is that true?! They are not
even halfway through this thing!
OK kids please read and look at what you post and or what you read. I am not makeing any judgement or opinion on accuweather. But they did NOT and I repeat did NOT say is going below Florida Here is what they are saying
There is still some uncertainty as to how fast this turn will occur and that leads to some uncertainty of exactly when and where the landfall in southwest Florida will occur. Our current thinking is that Wilma will head somewhere between the Florida Keys and Fort Meyers, sometime between late Sunday night and Monday midday.
This is very important times and you all children who post werd and ridiculas post please stop.
I just told my husband I wanted to put shutters up tomorrow. He balked since he's the one that has to climb the ladder. I won. :) They will be going up :)
NOLA, it's probably not your imagination. when the site doesn't have to load all the ads, it loads faster.

considering how easy it is to waste 5 bucks in this country, spending it on something like WU is more than worth it.

I've been reading WU since it was a text telnet site based at umich.edu!
ye NOLAinNC, I'm gonna show you a graph
"you all children who post werd and ridiculas post please stop"

I'm trying to place your accent...just kidding!
Relax please, Pinnelas. He was merely asking a question. Nobody was predicting anything.
OK, now I'm really outta here. I will check in later. I will look back for the graph jajuvera - please post.
Thanks!
here it is the graph of the rain:

http://webtec.itesm.mx/anexos/WOazteca/her.ph5001.0513.01-13185/a00902967/3221643/qr01rain_60m.gif
Hey Coconut, you preparing?d =)
Good for you, coconut. Max Mayfield is on. Now the NHC is saying that it may linger over the yucatan for 24 hrs or less. May be here quicker than forecasted.
The good news is it looks like at Cat. 1 at landfall in sw florida!
Yep, like I keep saying... Wilma has not played by the rules. Nobody seems to be able to get a good handle on her. I am putting up shutters tomorrow. I already have my hurricane closet stocked. I picked up a little extra water. All I need is to get some gas and perishables and I'm good to go.
Pics and posts from Cancun and Cozumel today.

www.stormcarib.com (look under reports)

www.cozumelmycozumel.com (scroll down to discussion)
Cantore is in Key Largo. Someone let the air out of his tires so he can't come to Cape Coral.
Doesn't the NHC forecast seem awfully different than Dr. Master's in regard to the impact on Florida? I'm picking up the tone from NHC that it won't be too bad here and Dr. Master's blog made me nervous. What gives?
We cancelled all of our elective surgical cases for Monday and Tuesday.
Apologizes' to anyone offended.
Hiya :)
Amazingly BAMM is still taking it over Cuba and straight at us in The Bahamas :(
Typo, sorry.
what gives is...no one is really quite sure yet. but masters has an 80% chance of cat 2 or lower, so it shouldn' make you TOO nervous.
i hav updated my blog
We paid up almost a year ago, code 1. Well worth the great info and no ads.
Also, I feel for all the people on the islands affected by Wilma and other storms ... when you are on an island, there is no where to run, no interstate to travel for hours on and get to safety easily and inexpensively :(
For those who don't want to pay the $5, you should really consider that it cost $$$ to put up a website like this. Web developing is what I do for a living and it doesn't come cheap. It's pretty amazing the amount of effort that goes into WU, I've been using it since I accessed it as a telnet session from my VAX terminal in college (and if you know what that means then you are as old as I am). They provide a great service and I don't think $5 a year is asking too much.
Do check out Discussion # 26, just issued by NHC. It does say and the numbers in the forecast indicate less severe impacts for Florida than previously. And Jeff Masters's new blog now has siginificantly raised the probablity that the storm will hit FL as Cat 3 or greater, so yes, 80% chance of Cat 2 or less, but before it was 70% chance of Cat 1 or less and 90% chance of Cat 2 or less.

Damn, wouldn't be better if we knew what was going to happen? Less interesting, though.

Have a good, safe, dry weekend, all.
What type of storm surge can be expected north of impact on the Florida Westcoast? I know it is less than on the southern side, but how much less is likely? Thanks for any input...
My daughter and son in law just got married Saturday and went to Cancun for their honeymoon. They couldn't get out so they are at the Moon Palace in their boarded up conference center. She called last night at 10:30 CST. If you have any religion at all, please pray for them and the others who are stuck there. God Speed.
I agree Code, $5 is minimal when you look at the data and knowledge that is available. I'm paid...
All of this attention to Wilma. With the path of the potential TD going through Haiti, this could end up being a bigger story. Remember Hurricane Jean last year? Hati is prone to flooding, particularly mudslides because of the lack of trees. If we get a slow moving system through Haiti, we could have another 1,500 people dead from the flooding.
From the 5pm Discussion:
"The models are in remarkable agreement... at least for now...
regarding where Wilma will pass over Florida... although they could
of course all be wrong to some degree given the 3-4 day lead time.
Significant disagreement remains in the timing of the impact on
Florida... so the while the confidence in the official forecast has
increased a little with respect to where Wilma will eventually
go... the uncertainty in the timing remains large."

The models don't look like they are even close to being in agreement. Too many variables and landfall is too far out (Florida). Just weird that they would remark about agreement in the models.

7
I take it back. They are pretty close--just too far out to be reliable. :D


7
Even UKMET has shifted from BAMM ... what does it have against us in The Bahamas :) :) :)
Greetings all,

It's my first time to post here or anywhere, but I have been reading for a while now (actually I tried a moment ago and never saw my post come up so some of this is repeated). I live in Hattiesburg, MS and we had 115 mph sustained during katrina, I also work for the DOT and have access to Hurrevac software developed by the Army Corps of Engineers and it shows a Cat1 (90 mph) coming in around Naples. It could change as newer information gets loaded but it hasn't in the last couple of days. Sorry for the length and thanks for letting me lurk.
Cancun weather at 19:40 (Still not sure of the time zone for this, if Z then a couple of hrs old)Temp 77 winds 108 gusting to 130 from ene pressure @ 968 and what appears to be 10" rain
Is this unbelievable.......Im sitting here in orlando.....florida is a sitting duck......everyone here is hoping the worse for the yucatan penisula.....thats terrible.....but i guess you cant blame them......i just know that alot of people will die there.....from a satellite prospective...it indeed is a beautiful site....I cant remember an eye that beautiful with an island inside it...its almost like it ate it... unfortunately it probably suffer as if it were eaten..........
Earlier today I posted my blog on Wilma entitled "Dying to Stay" (http://kennethelamb.blogspot.com)

I got this from "Steve:"

It might help to know a little bit more about the situation before slagging off on the NHC. They're calling for a 13-foot surge rather than a 25-footer because the water is quite deep in the NW Caribbean, as opposed to the shallow coastal shelf around much of the Gulf Coast.

As Jeff Masters (in whose blog you copied this post to) stated:

"Where a long expanse of shallow waters over the Continental Shelf (light blue) exist next to the coast, one can expect increased storm surge potential. The waters off the coast of Cancun/Cozumel are quite deep, limiting the maximum potential storm surge to about 11 feet."

The storm surge is from the piling of water by the storm, something harder to do when the waters are so deep.

And Dennis was a Category 4 hurricane, not a 5, after it emerged into the Gulf, and weakened considerably upon landfall in Pensacola.

--
Posted by Steve to Reading Between the Lines at 10/21/2005 01:44:46 PM

My reply, in reverse order:

You're right, Dennis topped out at a 4. Thanks for the correction.

Storm surge: I'm sticking with my prediction of 25-feet for now. Here's why:

The 13-foot NHC surge prediction is one of those textbook generic predictions about surge. Wilma is not a textbook hurricane.

In this case, Cancun already had 3-feet of water in its streets when Wilma was still 35 miles ENE of Cozumel - check out the AP quote below. Am I supposed to believe that Cancun will get slammed for about 18 - 24 hours with extreme winds (still at 140 as I write, with gusts to 170) and there will only be an additional pile up of 8-feet of water?

Sorry, I'm not buying that. But we'll see after the event who was closer.

Consider this quote from the Associated Press in Cancun:

At the Xbalamque Hotel, a downtown Cancun shelter for evacuees from beachfront resorts, American tourist Becky Hora, 37, watched floodwaters rise up the steps toward the lobby as winds howled and trees thudded to the ground.
``It's awful,'' she said. ``I thought that last night we had made it through the worst of it. And now it turns out this is only the beginning. It's hard to stay calm.'

Sure, 13-foot surge and it's up to the hotel's lobby door 18 - 24 hours before the NE winds blowing off the Gulf into the city die out. But OK, we'll see in 24-hours.

As for having some experience with hurricanes, I've professionally covered and chased them for 2 of America's largest newspapers (# 1 and #3 respectively) for 15 years. They spent a lot of money on tuition so I'd have a clue.

In addition, do the names Erin, Opal, Ivan, and Dennis ring a bell? If "steve" had looked at my About box, he'd have noticed I live in Pensacola - and lived through each of those while covering them for the papers. In each of the dozens of named tropical storms I've covered, I was in the eye, the eyewall, or the NE quadrant. That's where the story is found.

Finally on the issue of how easy it is to miss a category classification, let's take your Dennis remark at the end of your letter to me.

In my blog I note the dissing the NHC did on Dennis when it crossed over Cuba:

"5 AM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT DENNIS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY WHILE MOVING OVER CUBA. THE HURRICANE STILL HAS A 12 NMI EYE AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 972 MB. HOWEVER...THE PLANE HAS NOT REPORTED ANY WINDS HIGHER THAN 71 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL.
ASSUMING THAT THE ENTIRE WIND FIELD HAS NOT BEEN SAMPLED...IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 80 KNOTS...AND THIS IS VERY GENEROUS. SHIPS MODEL IS NO LONGER RE-INTENSIFYING DENNIS BUT THE GFDL DOES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CONTINUITY AND RE-STRENGTHENS DENNIS OVER THE GULF BUT THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD LATER TODAY. NORMALLY... IT TAKES 12 TO 24 HOURS FOR A CYCLONE TO RECOVER FROM THE EFFECTS OF LAND...IF AT ALL."

That night, just 18 hours later, we read this:

10 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005

"AFTER DEEPENING AT A RATE THAT BORDERED ON INSANE DURING THE AFTERNOON...DENNIS HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AT A MORE NORMAL RATE THIS EVENING. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 941 MB...WITH MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 122 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 110 KT. IT IS EXPECTED THAT WHEN THE AIRCRAFT AGAIN SAMPLES THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL THAT IT WILL FIND STRONGER WINDS THAT WILL JUSTIFY UPGRADING DENNIS TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE."

So much for models.

As for landfall, try this:

11 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005

RECONNAISSANCE WIND AND PRESSURE DATA...AS WELL AS SATELLITE
IMAGERY...INDICATE THAT THE EARLIER INTENSIFICATION TREND HAS CEASED. MOST RECENT ESTIMATED PRESSURE WAS 930 MB...AND THE HIGHEST RECENT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 131 KT. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 120 KT.
ALTHOUGH DENNIS IS NOW MOVING OVER WATERS OF SOMEWHAT LOWER HEAT CONTENT...IT IS MOVING RAPIDLY ENOUGH THAT ONLY MODEST CHANGES IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL. DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE THRESHOLD BETWEEN SAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORIES THREE AND FOUR.

Right on - as this shows 6 hour later, 2 hours after landfall:

5 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005

DENNIS MADE LANDFALL NEAR PENSACOLA AT 1925Z THIS AFTERNOON. THE LANDFALL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 100 TO 105 KT...BASED ON FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 117 KT AT 1928Z...TWO STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER OBSERVATIONS OF 100 KT JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS AT LANDFALL ALSO SUPPORT THIS VALUE.

I'm not exactly sure what steve's "weakened considerably after landfall" is supposed to mean, since weakening after landfall is what always happens.

Tomorrow, my blog will post "Who's Watching the Hurricane Watchers?" - an analysis of whether or not the NHC is really being held accountable for its predictions, and is it really effectively communicating with the public.

Check out Reading Between the Lines by Kenneth E. Lamb at http://kennethelamb.blogspot.com

Currently posted are Wilma posts Dying to Stay, and The Mexican Death Traps.
just paid 5.00$ I think DR. Masters is Great as well as the site, Have lived through several storms on the eastern shore of mobile bay and the gulf. didnt even know how much the site was, never read the ad. thanks and yes in two min. it is much better. hope the Dr gets%
personally i don't see this massive weakening over the yucatan as oficially forcast wilma has been interacting with land for quite awhile and no weakening yet, i still think wilma will emerge as a 3 and be a 2 in sw florida sometime sun night early mon.residents in the keys,monroe and and here in miami dade should definitely shutter and clear the yard of anything that might blow around as we will be in the field with the strongest winds, those to the north of the eye will have lower wind speeds but very heavy rain and probably some localized flooding my point is everyone should prepare because no matter where in cntrl to south florida you live you will feel the effects of wilma in some way shape or form, tropical storm force winds could easily effect the entire southern half of the state
Is Palmettobgut53 out there????

Palmettobug53, I just checked my email on a fluke and saw you sent one yesterday around 7pm. I must learn to check my mail sooner or at least daily. Anyway, I tried to answer your question. Let me know if I can help more.
Sorry for waiting so long to check.

Gamma
So it looks like Alpha is in the making...could have it in the next 2-3 days I say if the thunderstorm concentration keeps up and starts to get a good spin going. Is it really going to recurve so soon? What if the trough that's bringing highs near 70 and lows in the mid-40s to the FL panhandle next week lifts out by then and allows Alpha-to-be to continue moving west into Wilma's territory? We'll have to wait and see how this pans out as the 2005 hurricane season continues to grow more and more interesting (and devastating).
i just looked at joe b's post on accuweather and his thinking is the same as mine, key's through miamidade will recieve the brunt of wilma one point of interest i noticed today on my way home from work, i saw numerous storm drains surrounded by sandbags to keep debris form clorring them up, do you think the city might not be as optimistic as their official stance with the forcast track as far as intensity

FXUS62 KTBW 211801
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005

...WILMA THEN WINTER?...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...EVENTS MAY FINALLY BE COMING INTO FOCUS
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE TWO MAJOR WEATHER PLAYERS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS: WILMA...THEN MUCH COOLER AIR. AS FOR WILMA...
AT 1 PM THE LARGE EYE WAS OVER COZUMEL...WITH THE NORTHERN EYEWALL
POUNDING CANCUN. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY...BUT
STEADILY...TO THE NORTHWEST. AS 12Z SUITE OF MODELS ARRIVE...THE
GFS PARTICULARLY IS NOW EXTREMELY CONSISTENT WITH ITS 06Z TRACK...
ALBEIT A SHADE SLOWER. A QUICK LOOK AT THE CANADIAN SHOW IT TO BE
ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE NEW GFS. ONE GOOD THING IS THAT DATA
FROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET WAS AVAILABLE FOR THE 12Z RUN...
WHICH INCLUDES IMPORTANT WIND FIELDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RUN-TO-
RUN CONSISTENCY.

THE ONLY REMAINING QUESTION...AN IMPORTANT ONE...IS HOW MUCH OF THE
EYE WILL COME OVER LAND AND FOR HOW LONG. EVERY MODEL INSISTS THAT
IT WILL SPEND AT LEAST 12 HOURS COMPLETELY OVER LAND...WHICH WOULD
TEND TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...SHOULD IT REMAIN IN THE EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN AREA (NEAR CANCUN)...WEAKENING WILL BE LESS THAN IF IT
CAN GET FARTHER INLAND WHERE IT WILL BE CUTOFF FROM THE SOURCE OF
ENERGY. NHC TRACK ONLY WEAKENS THE SYSTEM TO A CAT 3 (105 KT) WHICH
MAY BE A TAD HIGH BUT NOT UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE LARGE CORE OF THE
STORM AND LACK OF DURATION OVER SOMEWHAT HIGHER TERRAIN OF CAMPECHE
WHICH WOULD DROP THE STORM BACK TO A CAT 1...OR LESS (THINK ISIDORE
BACK IN 2002).

SO...BASED ON THE NHC TRACK...EXPECT AT LEAST A CAT 1 HURRICANE TO
SWEEP SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
EXACTLY WHEN IS STILL IN QUESTION...ANYTIME BETWEEN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOON IS A POSSIBILITY AND ALL DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
LATITUDE THE STORM GAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...A VARIETY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS (SEE EXTENDED DISCUSSION FOR MORE). CURRENT GFS TRACK
SUGGEST AN INCREASING AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NORTH OF
THE CENTER BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY WEST OF THE WATERS AND AFFECTING
THE WATERS AND PERHAPS LAND AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THAT REGION WOULD ACTUALLY BE A
HYBRID OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE CYCLONE. MORE ON THAT IN A MOMENT.

AS FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION TO BECOME
SCATTERED AT BEST. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO NEAR
SEVERE WITH A SMALL TORNADO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. PLENTY OF
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY...FAVORING THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE AREA WITH THE MORE NUMEROUS PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BASED ON
BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM (ETA) HAS
BEEN DISCOUNTED AS IT IS TOO QUICK IN PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA. ITS SOLUTION DEEPENS THE MIDWEST/OHIO
VALLEY TROUGH AS A SINGLE ENTITY...WHILE THE GFS STRINGS THE SYSTEM
OUT FROM EAST TO WEST...MAINTAINING A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH RATHER THAN A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS THIS SYSTEM ALREADY ELONGATING AS IT DIVES THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS. THAT SAID...THE SURFACE FRONT AND ITS SHALLOW COOL AIR
WILL PROBABLY REACH LEVY AND PERHAPS CITRUS COUNTY BY EARLY
SUNDAY. WHERE THIS FRONT ENDS UP MAY HELP DETERMINE HOW MUCH
OVERRUNNING DEVELOPS...THOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE LIMITED AT
FIRST. FOR NOW...HAVE ONLY TIGHTENED THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTH
SUNCOAST AND BUMPED UP POPS 10 PERCENT.

THE SAME THING GOES FOR SUNDAY...THOUGH THIS FORECAST IS FRAUGHT
WITH UNCERTAINTY ESPECIALLY IF WILMA APPROACHES THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST FASTER. FOR NOW...HAVE TIGHTENED THE GRADIENT AND
VEERED WINDS A BIT ALONG AXIS AHEAD OF WILMA...MAINTAINING TROPICAL
AIR FROM SARASOTA COUNTY SOUTH...A SLIGHTLY MODERATED AIR MASS FROM
HERNANDO COUNTY TO SARASOTA COUNTY...AND A MORE AUTUMNAL
OVERRUNNING TYPE SITUATION FROM CITRUS COUNTY NORTH.

HOPEFULLY...THE MODEL TRENDS AND MODEL SPREADS WILL CONTINUE TO
TIGHTEN SUCH THAT BY THIS TIME TOMORROW WE CAN FINE TUNE THE
DETAILS.


.LONG TERM (SUN NGT-THURSDAY)...WILL BASE THIS FORECAST ON THE
LATEST SCENARIO OF WILMA MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN FL MON...WITH
A TRACK JUST BEYOND THE SOUTH CWFA...AS A RATHER ROBUST COLD
FRONT SWEEPS IN FROM THE NW. WINDS INCREASE EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AS A RESULT OF FIRST WILMA MOVING BY FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT AND
WILL BE A BLEND OF THE CURRENT FORECAST AND TPC WINDS. POPS REMAIN
SCT TO LIKELY MON BEFORE DIMINISHING MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN ENDING
TUE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A STRONG SURFACE MOVES FROM CANADA
TO THE GULF COAST DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPS DROPPING
DOWN TO BELOW CLIMO BY FRI.

&&

.MARINE...AS MENTIONED EARLIER...SEAS ARE THE MAIN QUESTION
REGARDING WHETHER TO ISSUE ADVISORY OR NOT THIS EVENING.
VALUES AT BUOY 36 HAVE CLIMBED TO 5.2 FEET FROM 2.6 FEET...AND REMAIN
OVER 10 FEET WELL WEST OF CAPTIVA. EXPECT VALUES TO REACH 7
TO 8 FEET FROM SWELLS OVER THE EXTREME WEST WATERS LATER
TONIGHT. WILL ISSUE ADVISORY FOR SEAS FALLING WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS VALUES SHOULD REACH AT LEAST 7 FEET BEYOND 20 NM OUT. WILL
PROBABLY HAVE TO EXPAND THIS FARTHER EAST PERHAPS AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
THEN CLOSE ON ON SCA AT LEAST ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY SUNDAY. LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE DETERMINED BY TRACK OF WILMA COMBINED
WITH GRADIENT FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT TROPICAL STORM TO
NEAR HURRICANE FORCE CONDITIONS AT LEAST FOR THE SOUTH WATERS...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NORTH...BUT USE DIRECTION ONLY FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTH LEGS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED RW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES
AS ISOLATED TRW FORM FOR THE CENTRAL & NORTH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SCT TSTMS WILL LOWER CIG/VIS DOWN TO AOA 2000/3 LATE AFTERNOON. OVER
NIGHT HOURS WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS OR RAIN BUT OVERALL VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 75 85 74 79 / 40 60 70 70
FMY 75 86 76 84 / 40 60 70 70
GIF 73 86 72 79 / 40 60 70 70
SRQ 75 85 74 81 / 40 60 70 70
BKV 71 84 71 77 / 30 60 50 50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS BY SATURDAY BONITA BCH TO SUWANNEE
RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM OUT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BSG
AVIATION/LONG TERM...RKR


From Miami NWS: For those of us who are planning to put up shutters. We may want to do in early tomorrow morning.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
627 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005

FLZ067-068-071>074-220030-
PALM BEACH WESTERN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-WESTERN BROWARD-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN DADE-DADE METROPOLITAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BELLE GLADE...WEST PALM BEACH...
MICCOSUKEE INDIAN RESERVATION...FORT LAUDERDALE...SHARK VALLEY...
MIAMI
627 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN MIAMI INDICATED THAT
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING RAPIDLY OVER SECTIONS OF
MIAMI- DADE...BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES AND MOVING NORTH AT
15 TO 20 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THESE AREAS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING
STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY
FUNNEL CLOUDS.

RESIDENT IN THESE COUNTIES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
"i saw numerous storm drains surrounded by sandbags to keep debris form clorring them up, do you think the city might not be as optimistic as their official stance with the forcast track as far as intensity"

It's a case of prepare for the worst, and hope for the best. If youwait until you know you are in the crosshairs, it's too late to do much prevention.
CC...thanks, hubby is usually up at 5 am...I'm sure at the sign of first light he will have them up...we have gas, I've been to Publix (twice) so I think we're all set there.. just need to play Lotto tomorrow..
do you have plenty of cash on hand.. certainly sounds like we'll lose power, we always do
Regarding the small fee of $5, I've been paying for a few years now and will keep doing so. I'd pay $10 if asked - it's a great bargain!

Thanks to Dr. Masters for the most useful site on the web.

I'm formerly from southern MS and now homeless, sheltering with relatives. I knew from info here we'd lose our house in Katrina but it was still hard to really believe until I saw the wreckage in person. Will post photos at some point. BTW, are post-hurricane wreckage photos considered weather related as per agreement on this site?

Best of luck to the tip of Mexico and whomever lies in Wilma's path next.
Have you seen the new update. at 20.6 89.9 How did it move that fast????????
Hi guys. Wilma is interesting, for sure. And all the models have no clue. The last image sure looks like a north jog. What do you guys think. Oh, by the way, I am in Jacksonville. I am the director of technology at Riverside Presbyterian Day School in Jacksonville, Fl.
75. dcw
It didn't. Read the public advisory, someone send out a bad feed.
I just saw that on another site. I didn't think that was right.
hi jaxwhiz, jax here also...mostly lurking...
Sorry, Billsfan. I've been in and out. Yep, got cash. Had gas but have used it up since Wilma slowed down. I'm dreading those shutters. Once again I have accordian shutter envy :)
Have you seen the new update. at 20.6 89.9 How did it move that fast????????

Somebody goofed and turned the actual 86.9 position into 89.9 and it looks like the graphics app drew that. I had to double-check with a sat photo to make sure I hadn't missed some serious excitement by being off here for a few hours.
off to cape cod to safely experience some great surf mid week. Good luck FL east and west
The rain gauge in Cancun is reporting: 1.10 m of rain (42 in), is it possible?

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/productos/emas/var/qr01pr.html

try several times, the server is slow
really 42"
Looking at the last few satellite frames, it would appear that Wilma may be moving more northerly. This may indicate the much awaited "turn".
Hey jajuvera,

That's alot of rain ..... Maybe somebody messed up and mounted the rain gauge close to the ground turning it into a "flood gauge" :-)
beautiful satellite loop images


Link

That was a heck of a lightning show we just got here in Jax!


7
I hate to be a Cassandra but the latest loop images spell bad news for just about everyone. After it stalled right over Cozumel, the storm has clearly started to progress due North, slowly weed-wacking its way to Cancun.

Obvioulsy bad news for Cancun, it will be in thoe core for god knows how many more hours, and it will get the brunt of the Northern eye-wall.

Bad news for Cozumel, as the southern eye-wall is going to slowly eat its way right up the axis of the island.

Bad news for Florida, becasue of this pattern holds, the storm will never be fully over land and will be partialy over land for a much shorter time then any of the models are predicting.

Remember, Cassandra was right after all, Paris did bring Troy down.
the last sat. loop definitely shows a northward motion along with a little breakup of the eye but with the current motion it looks like some of the eye may stay off the coast which would mean wilma won't weaken as much as possible, if this indeed is a trend and not a wobble i would not be surprised to see the nhc up the timetable for a fl. landfall to sun. eve. as wilma won't be stuck over land as previously thought. the next few hours will be critical in determining when and how strong wilma will be when it strikes fl.
This shows part of the eastern Caribbean wave...
In Dr. Master's earlier blog he listed the chances for SW Florida.
Cat 3+ 10%
Cat 2 20%
Cat 1 40%
TS 30%

Tonight he predicting a liklihood of a Cat 2+ (60%)
Cat 3+ 20%
Cat 2 40%
Cat 1 30%
TS 10%

This is not good for Florida.

Notice the eye is now moving due north slowly may just skirt the coast or be inland for a much shorter time
Hey Aptunes,

You may want to check out the last GDFL run at 120 hours. Link

That's Cape Cod getting pummeled by Cat 2 winds. Yea, I know everyone has it going further off shore, but the GDFL is supposed to be the most advanced model for hurricanes.
looks like the ukmet model seems to be most accurate so far....

ukmet model
mishnook Thanks eyes wide open
Apuntes,

Oh yea, the NOGAPS Link aint much happier for a Cape Cod visit.
local news has picked up on the northward movement looking at the watervapor i think this is the beginning of the shift towards fl. and not just a wobble albeit a whole lot earlier than the nhc has forcasted this storm has proven to be an extremely difficult one to predict. on a side note everyone in fl. is lucky to some extent in that not very often is an area of the coast almost assured of a hit for such a long time anyone in fl. who is caught unprepared will have only themselves to blame since it will be about 5 days worth of advisories saying sw fl. by the time wilma gets here. there will be no excuses on this one and no one to blame but yourselves if the track holds true
Any more info about conditions on the ground in Cozumel and Cancun? Jajuvera, thanks for the graph - it is hard to believe that much rain is falling!
Anybody got any guesses as to what Citrus County will experience? (Skinny part of the pennisula on the west coast)...
On the other hand, the GFS model sets up nicely. Link With that huge pressure gradient, you would get some strong west-wind which should hollow out a tube or two, assuming there are some nice fast breaks in the area.
I found this article about new hurricane categories last night and I have to say i agree with some of it.

Link

I think it should be kept simple, but they should expand and refine the wind speeds for each category. What I realize is that each category has different representation if you will. For example, a cat 2 hurricane can only have three possible wind speeds (100, 105 and 110) while a cat 4 has five possible wind speeds (135, 140, 145, 150, and 155). Cat 1 has five, and cat 3 has four.

I think they whould evenly space the categories by 20 mph and do it in such a way where all categories have four possible wind speeds.

For example, a scale like this:

TD: 30-39
TS: 40-74
1: 75-94- hurricane
2: 95-114- hurricane
3: 115-134- major hurricane
4: 135-154- major hurricane
5: 155-174- major hurricane
6: 175-194- super hurricane
7: 195-214- super hurricane

As you can see, I redefined the benchmark for TS, and hurricane status. The problem here now is reclassifying 155 mph cat 4 storms to cat 5 storms.

I think this scale is much more spimpler and it is only understanable that the higher the category, the more damage.
if the current motion hods true i wouldn't expect much of anything north of the lake outside of some heavy rapidly moving thunderstorms and lot's of rain
101. dcw
Not bad regal, but the TS is already 40-74, so how did u redefine?
I am a native Floridian (I hate to tell my age, but I'm 52) and this is the first time in my life that I've put up shutters. Lived through Dora, Donna, Andrew and Charley to name a few. I've been through plenty of hurricanes. We went through Charley last year & are putting up shutters, now. Not going to be caught with our pants down this year! As always, prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
looks like the models are kinda trending more to the north....I still think this is a central FL storm
windnwaves, you need to be nicer and stop being so negative?
Some of the things I have read that you have posted are
unbelievable. Are you really that much of a jerk or are you just trying to cause shock and get attention. If you do not want to pay $5 for a membership, that is your choice. Don't pay it but don't put down those of us that chose to pay the $5 membership. I believe it is worth it and I have more than gotten $5 worth just in the last few months. I would have paid it sooner had I know about it.
dcw, it is actually 39 to 73 mph, so it is somewhat of a change.
windnwaves, someone is going to get hit by this hurricane, so everyone in its possible path must prepare. Buying gas and water is not "hoarding" Hoarding is when you purchase excess amounts of necessities such that others cannot.

The fact that hundreds of thousands have been evacuated in the last few major hurricanes of this season has saved tens of thousands of lives. No one knew for sure exactly where the eyewall would land in Rita and Katrina, no one knew for certain what their strengths would be, but the best course of action was to evacuate as many as possible.

I believe that when someone makes irrational statements about others around him, he is often talking about himself. You may the one who is experiencing panic and you cannot admit it, so I hope you are able to find some calm yourself.
I'm just curious, where is everyone? This blog seems light on post.
i used to live in cape coral for 11 years, and i cant imagine the flood danage this would produce due to the canals

Link

you can see it very easily here, a nice pic of most of Lee county.
Regal: lefty started a blog so people are split up or watching both
Regal, most are in Lefty's blog. There's a post there that looks suspiciously like your new rating system post. You should go check it out.
It's identical to your rating system and is listed as an article found last night.
Hey tpabarb... I couldn't answer this morning as I had gone to work. I saw your post from work but can't answer there.

I've been saying all along that I think this one is meant for us in the Tampa Bay region. I guess it depends on who you listen to. The experts in the field seem to think SWFL or the Keys. If you check the strike probabilities all the numbers have gone up for the entire state. No matter where it goes across the state we will get a pretty good swipe even if it misses us meaning the eye. I'm hoping it stays a little south of but I don't think it will be far off the mark for Tampa.
most are on lefty's blog. that's where I am most of the time. I just check in on this one every now and then to see what is going on an see what some of the original Katrina posters are doing. I think I will stay away for awhile
Someone stated on the radio this afternoon that there were as many as 1,000 persons stranded on Cozumel and as many as 700,000 total in the greater Cancun area, including 10,000 tourists when Wilma rolled in. I suppose they are used to these storms down there, and have adequate preparation and shelters; otherwise this might be a recipe for casualties.
windnwaves, Wilma went from a nothing hurricane to the strongest on record overnight, so I think what you are seeing is an expression of peoples' fears. I don't think anyone forecasted such a drastic strengthening, so that tells people that a hurricane that looks like no big deal when they go to bed, can be a monster in the morning. Katrina was the same way.
can somone post a link to lefty's blog
You don't really need a link. Just go to the blog index page.
The IR sat is really starting to show that Wilma is strating to weaken. Very few reds and lot of yellow indicting warmer cloud tops. Definitly moving North though. It will be interesting to see how this land interaction effects the overall storm. Also looks like wind shear and dry air are beginning to deterioate the west side.
Miami,

Are you staying or bailing?
Sorry about the crappy spelling. I am trying to multitask:-)
123. CB4
Hope this doesn't duplicate....long time lurker, first time blogger. I'm looking for the definitions of the parameters provided in the vortex reports? Anyone?
link to Cancun updates from InCozumel's blog - crazy pics

http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/2005/mexico.shtml

(I don't know how to do links)
CB4,

I can do better then that, try this website. It decodes for you.
CB4,

Sorry here is the link Link
I see no sign of shear on west side--just land interaction.
128. CB4
gnshpdude,

Grassy Arse!
Someone posted them a long time ago, maybe Lefty
It would be nice to see them again
StSimons,

Check out the vater vapor imagery. Look at the loop for the entire gulf not the floater. Looks to me like the NW side is getting sheared toward Florida. What do you think?
i'll be staying i'm between downtown and the grove i'm thinking that i'll have quite an interesting ride i plan on getting outside for pictures as weather permits
132. CB4
Part 2: Extreme rookie here. What is so particularly different about the data which is used for the various models? While I can appreciate that weather is the ultimate dynamic, why would the LBAR still predict a Tampa area landfall, as opposed to the general consensus of Collier/Lee Counties? (And living in TPA leaves me predisposed to ponder this)
windwaves...you make some good points.....I like your thoughts and plans.....I just have one serious question. What do you do with the chicken?
CB4,

Without going into a ton of detail, let me say that the GFDL and GFS have consistently out performed the other models since I have been tracking Hurricanes in 2004. The GFS uses global data from the whole hemisphere. The GFDL is more of specialized Hurricane model. Dr. Masters may post whole model thing in the future. If you go to the NOAA NWS site and navigate to Hurricanes and models they will give you a full explanation in detail.
Just to let you know! As people in this blog can attest to I think the LBAR is by far the worst model.
you store the beer inside the chicken to keep it cold
How do you cook rice with no power?
138. CB4
NOLA...try the gas grill, particularly if you're lucky enough to have the side burner (or your neighbors). Somehow my brother successfully made peach cobbler on a charcoal grill last year after Charley.
Didn't think about gas. I have enough trouble with rice on the stove. And I'm a Louisiana girl!
I am suprised they still have this at a CAT 4 in the 11:00 Advisory. I expect this will be a weak Cat 3 when I wake up tommorrow. G'nite all.
I've updated my blog on the privatization of weather info. We found their trying to pull a fast one by "clarafying" that NOAA won't compete by duplicating anything that private industry already does, in a policy. Click on my name above. Click on 1st line of blog entry and unleash your thoughts on the matter. NOAA wants the public's comment here, on this, but we only have til Nov 2nd.
the keys have advised that beginning tomorrow a mandatory evacuation of all mobile home residents followed by anyone within 40nm of jim cantore
Skyeponey
Since I am kinda new here can you give me a little detail about why this privatization is being proposed? Is this a big business lobby thing?
Please somebody fill me in about paying $5.00 a year for free information. I somehow have miss the loop.
plus Anderson Cooper AND Brian Matthews are in Naples....double whammy
Boy, this place is really quiet. More so then I've seen it in days.
147. iyou
Matilda - if you scroll to the top, there's a blurb to the left about it.
direct quote from the "wonderful weather team on channel 7"
"hurricanes rarely travel in a straight line, but if they did wilma will come onshore in naples" the news media needs to steer people away from if not do away with entirely with the straight line, this is what causes people to not evacuate and not take necessary precautions wilmas hurricane winds reach an 80 mile radius hardly a pinpoint on a map. by the way congress passed a resolution barring jim cantore from all coastal areas, hurricanes expected to decrease but look for more tornadoes floods etc. wherever he may go. lol
149. dcw
NHC is now mentioning the eastern Caribbean blob as a potential depression. Say hi to Alpha everybody!
sorry to hear that billsfan maybe you should get out now
I am new too Weatherunderground. I am on Marco Island waiting to see what happens
Miami --just keep Cantore out of Oklahoma i =n the spring & I will be OK
Hi MarcoGlenn. It's usually a bit noisier here. Not sure what everyone is doing. Maybe boarding up, leaving etc.
$5 a year. I lose $5 in change and get nothing in return. I visit this website every day and enjoy what the $5 gives me. I like the 40 image radar loops, as opposed to the 4 image ones if I remember correctly. This website is great and very informative, I think paying just $5 a year for access to a website with this much information and work being put into it is well worth it. I live in SW FL And find everything in here a lot more valuable than $5 a year. Imagine the bandwidth bill they get.
Thanks MisterJimster. The information here seems to be very good.
Hurricane Wilma Discussion Number 27

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on October 21, 2005


the eye of Wilma is slowly making landfall on the northeastern coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula. Even before landfall...an Air Force
Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicated that the flight-level
winds were decreasing and that the central pressure was starting to
rise. Since the plane left...there has been a notable decrease in
the satellite signature with the convective tops warming and the
eye becoming cloud filled. There was a surface wind of 137 kt from
an eyewall dropsonde east of the center around 23z. While this
surface wind is not supported by either the flight-level winds or
the normal dropsonde analysis proceedures...it and a couple of 127
kt surface winds from earlier drops suggest the possibility that
Wilma might have been a little stronger than 120 kt this afternoon.
Based on this and the decay since the plane left...the initial
intensity remains 120 kt.

The initial motion is a wobbly 330/3. Wilma is currently in a col
area between two segments of the subtropical ridge...and should
move slowly north-northwestward or northward for the next 12-24 hr
into the Gulf of Mexico. After that time...a powerful deep-layer
trough developing over the eastern United States should begin to
turn the hurricane northeastward with gradual acceleration. The
dynamical models are in better agreement that Wilma will cross the
Florida Peninsula in 60-72 hr...although the NOGAPS is still a
little slower. However...there is some spread as to which part of
Florida the center will cross...with the GFDL and GFS pointing more
northward towards Charlotte Harbor...and the UKMET and ECMWF
pointing more toward the Florida Keys. The official forecast track
is shifted a little to the right of the previous track for the
first 96 hr...and lies on the right side of the guidance envelope.
Given the uncertainty of where the center will cross Florida...all
interests in the Florida Peninsula should continue to monitor the
progress of Wilma and make appropriate preparations.

The intensity forecast remains problematic. The first question is
how strong will Wilma be when it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico...
a question complicated by the eyewall replacement cycle it is
undergoing as it makes landfall. Since the new forecast track
calls for less time over Yucatan than earlier...the intensity
forecast has Wilma emerging over the Gulf at a slightly higher
intensity than the previous advisory. Once over the Gulf...there
is a window of opportunity from 24-48 hr for Wilma to re-intensify
as it passes over The Loop current. After 48 hr...the large-scale
models agree that vertical shear will increase significantly over
Wilma...which will likely cause weakening. The intensity forecast
calls for Wilma to reach 95 kt before the shear hits...and it will
probably reach Florida as a category two Hurricane. Wilma should
weaken during after after crossing Florida...becoming extratropical
over the Atlantic between 96-120 hr.


Forecaster Beven
Hi MarcoGlenn...I'm north of you in Orange Tree. You're not doing the mandatory evacuation?

Gak...Cooper and Matthews in Naples? If Cantore shows, that completes the tropical triumverate. Kiss the peninsula goodbye. ;)
THIS JUST IN!

Jim Cantore stops Wilma cold! He flew down to a Cancun and went to a bar. Things got ugly quick between the two and he socked her right in the 40nm wide eye!

This thing is over!
I don't want to fan the flames here, regarding the $5, but remember that this is asked only if you want to visit the site without having to see advertisements. This site is still free if you don't mind that minor annoyance. I paid for a membership as I like this site and want to see it keep operating. So many other "free" sites have run into financial trouble, especially if they are getting high traffic, like this site gets. I like having so much information in one place instead of having to hunt all over for it. I don't like ads.

OK, I'll be quiet and go back to lurking now...
Quite peculiar that Wilma jogged off toward the southwest, huh. Is this because of the replacement cycle, and this is just an illusion?
I also just noticed the jog to the southwest, but yes, it does look like part of the eyewall replacement. The movement of Wilma seems to be quite erratic.
Hi, I discovered this site during Katrina, and its a daily visit at least for me now. I'm not ready to put up $5 yet for it, but I probably will in the near future.

My question about Wilma is this: this storm has almost no linear momentum to it, I don't think it has ever traveled more than 7 MPH, and now its down to as little as 3 MPH;historically, storms this slow can do practically anything, as every little shift in their environment can deflect them enormously - so why on earth is everyone so certain about the southern florida hit? A 5 degree shift in its inital launch off of the Yuccatan puts this thing in northern florida, a 10 degree shift could put it in the panhandle. Rita did a far greater deflection with much more momentum (though still pretty slow), going from a south texas border hit to a north texas border hit. I think focusing on southern florida so early could really put a lot of people in danger, especially those who travel just a few hundred miles to "get away" from the storm.

Seriously, a small change in the pressure to the west could start this thing NW again, and then it could end up almost anywhere. Does anyone put that much faith into models of a stationary storm?
We evacuated our home in Cancun yesterday and came 200 miles west to Merida. Our home sits about 100 feet away from the beach. The waves were crashing over our 6 foot tall sea wall yesterday before we left and destroyed the palapa that sits about 10 feet out in the water. We fully expect our home and all our belongings to be gone. We lost contact with all of our friends that stayed, cell and land lines are down of course as is power.

Last we spoke with our friend that runs a hotel used as a shelter, he said the front of the building was gone and the back was taking one heck of a beating and the streets were full of water and coming into the buildings...this was over 6 hours ago.

Please...I know that it won't be as intense when it hits Florida, but be safe...leave if you can....
Good Morning All!
I am not a familiar face, yet! But am here on and off daily. I just read MisterJimster's 4:05 AM GMT post about the update last night. Did I read correctly??? Is one of the measurements showing the path of the eye across Carolina (Charolette)? And yet the degrees vary that much to also pin Wilma's eye flowing across the Keys? I am so confused! First hurricane for me!

Also, I would love to be let in on the "Jim Catore" Jokes???
:)
Good morning everyone. It's 5:03 Central here in Baton Rouge, and most of the city is asleep at this ungodly hour. But I am up because it's a workday for me, and I have to be there from 6 AM til 6 PM.

Attended the wedding of my baby daughter last night. It was beautiful, and we all had a wonderful time.

I cannot believe Wilma is taking so long to finish up with Yucatan and get back out into the Gulf. The waiting is driving me crazy -- as I'm sure it is also doing to many Floridians.

I personally will not take any comfort in Wilma being expected to head towards Florida upon leaving Cancun, until we see her emerge into the Gulf and actually get picked up by that trough and head that way. Until then, I think the wisest attitude of everyone from Brownsville, TX to Key West, FL is to assume that it's still open and *could* go anywhere.

I remember much earlier this week, before any mention of Florida being the post-Mexico target, the 5-day cone showed a track very similar to what has happened up til now. But at that time they only showed it up to just off the northern Yucatan coast, and had not yet projected what it would do after Yucatan... it was totally eerie, because if you followed the track as they predicted it at that point, and simply continued the track in a straight line in the same direction as it was pointing at that time, it pointed directly at SE Louisiana... had me scared $***less... and then a day or so later we started hearing about the trough turning it towards Florida, and the 5-day cone started showing that forecast. Also we're supposed to be having one or two cold fronts here in Louisiana that are supposedly going to help keep Wilma out of here, too.

I'm still waiting to see. I *hope* the official forecast is accurate in that it's not coming here. But until it happens I'm keeping an eye on this monster.

For you in Florida, my thoughts, prayers and wishes for your safety and that you will all come out of this with as little impact as possible.

Well, time to get ready to leave for work. So hang in there everyone, and I'll be checking back around 18:30 CDT roughly.

Sonny

LizinCancun..

Prayers are with you....glad you got away. Here in Sarasosta, FL (50 mi. s. of Tampa) we are watching and waiting and watching and waiting.
finally, i am able to load this page. i gave up last night and have tried for a while this morning. w-undreground must be being hammered bandwidth wise.

i'm hanging in there here on the coast in bonita springs. just watching and waiting for what is to come.

i think it very interesting that family you don't hear from for a year at a time, ex-girlfriends that have been with other men over years and "friends" you didn't even know were friends are suddenly concerned and make contact.

suddenly i'm getting "take care" and "be careful" and "God Bless You" from the most unlikely of people. where was all this care, love, consideration and concern last year, last month and last week?

it takes a threat to my life.. or at worst, my safety... to have people now care about me?
Hey Ric... at least they think enough aobut you to send the wishes... All my compadres from out of the area think I'm fiesty enough to wear 'ol Wilma down.. either that or they have gotten tired of sending the wishes these past two years... LOL.

At any rate.. be smart in your preps. Good luck.
i'm a little snide about it. i'm hesitant to respond to the emails... and well, i anticipate there will be phone calls come monday... from people that will "care"... and i've been here all along. don't you think it rather selfish and a little rude to suddenly act like they care?
SRQgal,

Doing the same here in Tampa. My husband is from Sarasota, and his grandmother still resides there. I believe she will be driving to Tampa today to stay with my Mother-in-law, who lives around the corner from us in New Tampa area.

To All: I am concerned we are not hearing more about the evacuee's conditions in Mexico. The tourists that are staying in the basketball stadium, as well as the other areas, do not appear to have much food or water. And conditions at the shelters appear to be entering a mirror condition of that in New Orleans stadium. I am worried of the number of people suffering from dehydration, heat stroke, ... When help is finally able to reach them (God knows when, since Wilma is sitting still) I dred the news of victims. I pray for all of them, and fear for the upcoming. Being my first hurricane, I do not know if I am being naive to stay in Tampa. This is so crazy because Wilma is so unpredictable!!!
Hi Ric,

At least you ARE getting calls... tee hee ;)
Although, I did not leave much of a forwarding path when I left California one year ago. "Like a bat out of hell..."
LOL
Hang in there Ric! We are all a little loopey and crazy with this thing. Even the people who are calling!
Dee
Time for more coffee and a computer break. My eyes are starting to get blurred from all the reading of news reports and predictions. Be back soon.
from the experience of charley... i'm not sure evacuating is the smart choice. especially here in florida. where are you going to go? going east just puts you in the same path of the storm with winds that are to a lesser degree... but you are away from home, stuck in your vehicle... maybe in traffic. if you go north.. towards tampa... you are still in the same situation. waiting till the last minute makes it all the worse because everyone is waiting too and then you could end up on the side of the highway, 5 miles from home with a hurricane coming in. so, why not stay at home? the only other option would have been to jet and run out of state.. but then you've wasted plane fare and left your home abandoned.. and the thing may not even hit where you were?

it's a quandary
Ric... part of it is an adrenalin rush for these folks... you know... "I know someone who surviced the Titanic".

Laugh it off... send quick repy notes...with a touch of humor.... "thanks for the note... we're all learning to get along with the displaced alligators." ... or something to that effect...LOL
even if it was a cat5... i think staying here is still smarter than any other option. i've got gallons of water stored and food, a generator with 5 gal of gas, i'm on the third floor-facing east and worst case, my truck is 4wd... IF i had to jet. in the meanwhile... i've got a laptop with a ten hour battery and a broadband wireless card so as long as a tower is still up, i've got internet. and, i've got a dc powered tv.

the wierd thing is... i almost feel guilty for being so ready, safe and secure. there are so many ppl that may end up being in trouble and i KNOW i could help someone... yet going out in it or soon afterwards could be hazardous.

i've got a friend in naples, a single mom with small children. she has no family, no way to be ready... wasn't able or fortuitous enough to leave and is/was too proud to say she needed help or would. how many people are going to be like her... possibly in dire need of help... and here i sit with power from a generator, cold beer, a fan blowing on me, water to drink, etc. even to the point i could be here in my condo probably a week without ever sticking my head out the door... and a bunch of people outside my door might need help?

a tentative plan.. is to do that. hunker down and ride out the storm... and as soon as it's safe... go out and start helping people.
176. sholl
I'd like to hear how Cozumal came through and can't find word one about it. Anyone, Anyone???


sholl
SRQgal

that is GREAT advice, although a little silly. yeah, making it funny is an option. during and after charley... i had calls then too... but over the course of time... when it was a perfect 90 degrees and i was at the beach.. they were jealous and would make comments that they stil had white christmases and that leaves still turned brown... or that they sure were glad they didn't have humidity.

they don't like it when you are happy and safe... but they jump all over drama
sholl

watching the weather channel... i think it's gonna be a day or so before any word comes out of there. it's surely bad.

i was in cozumel a few years ago. it's the epitamy of the "haves" and the "have-nots" there. most everything there is shacks and poverty... with a small percentage of rich, tourist 5-star hotels and cruise ship moorings.

that small upper percentage makes all those ppl that live in shacks be able to live their lives and probably.. all those shacks are blown down or flooded... so those big hotels and upper class amenties are damaged... while the people that work at them... are suffering, maybe even dying.

all we can do is wait.
Cozumel must have devastaing damage and Cancun cannot be fairing too much better. Unfortunately for the people in Mexico the longer the storm stays over a land mass the better it is for Floridians. It also appears that the "shear" as started on the western and north west sides of the storm?

This storm has been bewildering and at this point nothing can be ruled out. In North Fort Lauderdale there were very heavy storms from feeder bands last night, those same storms flooded large parts of Oakland Park and Pompano Beach. Tornados too will become an increasing concern as the storm progresses and becomes extratropical perhaps even before a Florida landfall.
Hi scribblin We are going to wait to see if we are going to leave or not. I will know a little later.
Good morning everybody.I have lived in Florida my whole life. All 50 years of it (ouch). I was born in Jacksonville and now live inland in a very small town, Melrose. It is about 20 minutes away from Gainesville (Go Gators). The waiting on Wilma is driving me crazy. Got this stupid eye twitch thing going on from staring at this computer so long.Ric, people never suprise me anymore but hey at least you got people who pretend to care. I replaced friends and family with dogs and you know what they never let me down.Always loving and forgiving. Pretty pathetic sorry about that I must need more coffee. Even as far inland as we are we lost our electricity for 6 days with Frances last year and I watched our huge oak trees kissing the ground. We got over 13 inches of rain and more wind than we ever expected. So I'm going to be here waitng and watching like the rest of you. Cat
TAke care ALL... must run out for a bit.... BBL. Let's all keep smiling!
Good morning from The Bahamas :)
A little piece of the 8am EST advisory:

At 7 am CDT...1200z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located
inland over northeastern Yucatan near latitude 21.0 north...
longitude 87.0 west about 10 miles... 15 km west-southwest of Cancun
and about 415 miles... 665 km... southwest of Key West Florida.

Wilma is drifting northward... and a continued slow northward motion
is expected today. On this track...the core of Wilma will continue
to severely pound portions of the extreme northeastern Yucatan
Peninsula all day today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 120 mph... 195 km/hr...
with higher gusts. Wilma is a category three hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson scale. Some additional weakening is expected today
while Wilma is over land.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 200 miles...325 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb...27.85 inches.
------------------------

The BAMM is still making with a sharp right turn into The Bahamas :(
Hi everyone,
I hope you all are giving the GFS some credit.
It has been consistant the last 7 runs. I am thinking FT. Myers landfall now.
Unless the GFS shifts.




JenD
::deploy the CANTORE!!
::ALL eyes on the GFS
::http://www.cyberteddy.freeservers.com/blog.htm
Hi IC,

I'm from G'ville, now living in Naples. We're loaded up w/ gas for generator, water, non-perishables, charcoal & propane for grills, home is almost completely boarded. Will finish boarding later. We've got a house in Keystone, will be moving there next summer. Love that area up there, it's beautiful. Wish I was there now. With all the uncertainty surrounding where Wilma is heading we decided to stick it out here instead of possibly getting stuck on I-75. Just hope it goes a little further south as I would much rather be on the backside of this storm. Will ride it out and then, God willing, go out to offer any help to anyone I can.
186. OGal
Hi all, just waiting. I know we don't have the scarey waiting you guys in South Florida have, but as I have said Charley nailed us. Who knows, you South Floridians could be off the hook and Orlando will get the bad winds again. SRQ I have many Sarasota friends and I sure hope you all will get by with only little twigs on the ground. More later from Winter Springs.
ric -
Those "shacks" actually survive a hurricane pretty well. The classic Mayan thatched hut will lose its roof, but it's just palm fronds that can be replaced. The dangerous ones are those whose owners have enough money to add a sheetmetal roof - think 6-foot wide flying razor blades. A step or two up the economic ladder and you are into cement walled houses ... fairly safe.

Most of the Yucatan is fast-draining limestone ... the flooding subsides quickly, so it's not going to do a NOLA on them. It's also flat, so the deadly mudslides aren't going to happen.

The Mexican government, repeating what they did when a hurricane (David?) roared across the middle of the Yucatan, has Army relief convoys sitting out of the storm path, and will move in behind Wilma with road-clearing and repairing crews, followed by water trucks and medical supplies. I've seen them in action in Sonora after a slow-moving tropical depression dumped a years worth of rain into the mountains in 6 hours, kicking off some impressive sudden floods, and it was impressive. I was stuck on a high stretch of highway for hours. Sitting on my skinny little island (safe, but hot and thirsty) I could see boats taking people to hilltops and choppers dropping off supplies to the hilltop refuges.
I'm telling you guys, my dreams are kicking up.
I keep seeing a more northern track.

From Sarasota to Tampa, watch out.

Babu
hi all...haven't checked the posts in a while. just wondering what the so floridas have been doing to prepare for the storm. i'm in palm beach co and am still trying to decide whether or not to put up the shutters. i have to put them up by myself, so it's a big decision to make. anybody else doing the same thing? i'm thinking it may be better to be safe than sorry.

palmbeacher, etc. what have you guys been up to???
Morning everyone, No suprises this morning I expected a weak cat 3 this morning. Hope it gets to a Cat 1 before getting back over the water.
My input on gen sets running 24/7 (someones's earlier gripe).

After Charlie my gen set ran at least 22/7. Three hours three times a day for my freezer, fridge, fans and battery charger for my inverters (for radio and TV). In between my usage, I would roll the gen set to my neighbors (two homes) and they would run a simular but abbreviated schedule. We did this for five days.

That gen is now a backup for my kids or neighbors in that I purchased an electric start (HIGHLY recommended1) unit due to a bad shoulder. Also, my wife can start the unit in my absence.

I used my boat deep-cycle trolling motor batts to run inverters for radio, TV and a couple of small fans. Recharged them during the gen set cycle.

Now back to your normal programming...

Hey, 2ifbyC, tell me more about using your trollng motor to run radio, tv & fans?

Also, tell your kids or anyone who uses the generator to be very very careful. We used ours after Brett and all of us ended up with carbon monoxide poisoning (and the husband is an engineer who is supposed to know what he's doing). We placed our generator pretty far from the house but we were using a window unit a/c as opposed to central at that time and the window a/c pulled in the exhaust (and it wasn't near the generator at all).
I haven't done anything yet Farmer. I am going to wait and see how long it sits over the Yucatan befor I decide to go through the whole put the shutters up routine.
194. Sasha
I'm in central Florida - near you, OGal. I work in local government and worked storm shift after the storms last year. Did a couple of 12-hour stints answering phones in the EOC, and helped distribute ice off of the refrigerated trucks. If it does change track and veer towards us, I know what I'll be doing on Monday. Everyone in south to central Florida sweating it out this week-end. Make all of your preparations now and evacuate if necessary. Don't take any chances if you live in the Naples/south Gulf area. Unbelievable devastation in Cancun. Best wishes to all.
Morning all!

LizinCancun...I'm praying for you. So sorry about the devastation.

MysticDog...There's really only one way out of Naples (I-75), so people have to leave as early as possible before the interstate becomes a parking lot. Everybody who is still here has pretty much committed to staying, I'd say.

newFLfungirl...Wow, first 'cane. Be safe. The local TV stations all have websites that help you think of the things you need to do to prepare.

Regarding a Charlotte hit, I don't think there's any way. Maybe some outlying islands along the Carolinas might get some tropical storm winds, but I think the storm will pass farther out to the east.

Regarding Jim Cantore, he's a TV forecaster who seems to have the uncanny, unearthly ability to be where the eye of a hurricane hits, unpredictable as they are. It's like he is a hurricane magnet. So people (including myself) are cracking jokes that are 50% humor and 50% nervousness - especially if Cantore is near their hometown!

BTW, I'm trying to send out anti-Cantore vibes as I type....
cctxshirl & others,

I pull my trolling motor batts (TMB) and make sure they are fully charged (you can use regular auto batts also, but ya may need them in case you must evac).

I have three inverters that converts battery 12DC voltage to 110 VAC. I have two 400 and one 1000 watt units. There are various qualities, ergo price, units out there. I've had great success with the moderate priced inverters.

There are wattage charts on the web to determine the size inverter or gen set you need.

I run a TV and fan in the garage (where I live during a storm) with a 400 watter. In the house I run two fans and a TV on the other 400 watter to keep the bride happy.

I just purchased the 1000 watter as a catchall in case the gen set kaputs.

I top off the TMBs with a charger when I run the gen set. I've yet to run any of the TMBs down with this schedule.

I move the gen set to the windward side in order to insure that the exhaust is blown away from the house.

I have 20 gallons of gas in 5/2.5 gal containers. As a backup my boat has a 40 gal gas tank. I can transfer gas using a hand crank pump. DO NOT USE A POWERED PUMP FOR GASOLINE FOR TRANSFER!

If anyone has any questions, email me at 2ifbyC@tampabay.rr.com. We don't want to clog the blog!



ric...I think they contact you because of the potential for loss of life (yours, that is). All of us have people with whom we're not close enough to need to call all the time, but we'd still care if they were in danger.

sholl...There are blogs where people from Cozumel were posting as of last night. One is www.stormcarib.com (I think) and another was something like www.caribbeanmycaribbean.com. Click on "reports" or "discussion" or things like that and you'll find them.
As if there wasn't enough to worry about. The flhurricane.com site just posted that td 25 has formed and that advisories are likely to start at 11am.
Storm readiness:
already my old house was built stronger than required by codes, with special attention to the roof / trusses (no 2x4, but 2x6 instead, and I had installed a 7.5 KW/h Genset hardwired to kitchen / lights / and some outlets as well as all ceiling fans (to run the AC you need more power), and it served well after Charley. When I decided to build my new house, I set my standards even higher: First of all, I had the house build at an elevation 4' higher than required, all outside walls, even the recessed ones, which normally get done with stud walls, now are concrete block with concrete filled cells @ 24" o.c., 2x6 cantilevering rooftrusses (no birdsmouth), all windows (Eurocraft - Koemmerling tested to 175 mp/h wind)and doors with triple pane impact resistant (actually bulletproof) glass, and a liquid-cooled diesel powered Genset with 16 KW/h continuous output. I also have an additional 90 sq. ft. "safe-room", surrounded with 8" concrete walls, and with a 12" concrete slab as ceiling, which could serve as escape, if the waters rose higher than expected. All of this "extras" cost me only about $45,000.-, on a house with 2,700 sq ft living area,which translated in monthly cost for a 30-year mortgage would be around $250.00, but given the fact, that in return for the better windows there is a energy savings of $75.- a month, it really is only $175 a month more, than without peace of mind. I think it's worth it, and I don't understand, why new houses are not built this way, or even close to such standards. The cost for doing the above on the average 2,000 sq.ft house, with a smaller generator would be reduced to $20,000, less than $50/month counting the energy savings!
Just my 2 Cents
I heard on Channel 12 that they are saying to put up the hurricane shutters in Palm Beach County. It is so quiet right now that it doesn't seem like a storm is coming. It sure is muggy though!
Is everybody preparing or just waiting for the 11:00 a.m.?
11am out. Still a cat 3. Keys under a hurricane watch. Hurricane watch will probably be posted for the rest of the fl peninsula later today.
Showing TD25 not to be a concern for the U.S. mainland at this time.
steve lyons just reported ts alpha. is that confirmed anywhere?
sorry, td alpha...right?
I am in West Palm.... I think the 11am advisory will tell the tale. The predictiones get worse for us over here, stronger storm on West Coast, with a little more Northern turn gives us East Coasters a pretty powerful kick...remember, SOUTHSIDE of this one is the bad side when it gets to us!

I will probably encourage some boarding up among my family and friends, although tomorrow WILL NOT be too late though.... point of no return will be 2pm Sunday!
The peace of mind is worth it. Our condo replaced all the old 40 year old windows last year. We replaced them with hurricane resisant, Miami-Dade County approved windows What a differnce it makes as far as noise, savings on energy bills, and of better protection from hurricanes. I live near the beach at Fort Lauderdale. The state will require all high rise condo buildings to have high-impact windows within 7 years. The insurance companies are requiring them to do it if they continue to want coverage in the state of Florida. I don't blame them as all older building need to be updated. Outdated windows are the easiest way the wind can penetrate and destroy a building.
Looks like the storm is already beginning to turn. Lastest coordinates indicate NNE motion.
210. code1
Anyone have any news from our fellow bloggers from Cozumel or Cancun? Hope they are safe. I know they are at the very least going to have a very difficult time of it.
I read some last night that said all power had been turned off for safety... Most would be conserving batteries for emergency, if the phones are still active.
Morning all.

Why is it that they only posted a hurricane watch for us in the Keys and not the rest of the southwest coast? This kind of bothers me.....the track guidance still seems to take it all north of here......do they know something we don't know?
11:00 report says 115 MPH max winds cat 3 drifting north 21.3, 87.0 and further weakening is expected. It may be moving a slight bit faster-not sure yet.
214. SEFL
Why is it that they only posted a hurricane watch for us in the Keys and not the rest of the southwest coast?

Because of the evacuation issues they have to give keys 36 hour warning of tropical storm force winds
Thanks SEFL.

I was worried the track was going to change.
SEFL, he said it was because of the huge outer band would be reaching the keys soon.
Hello every one !
I'm in Haiti. It is very hot here ! TD 25 allmost TS Alpha will impact us by sunday morning or at noon. For now the governement didn't post any warning ! It is so curious to see that !
I'm very affraid because where I live is on the track of this system and I will receive a direct impact. My big concern is Wind.
Do you think the systeme have any chance to become a minimal Cat 1 Hurricane before land fall somewhere over Haiti?
jcpoulard, so far no chances for cat 1, all models max at 55 mph stay tuned so, best wishes, you got more problems with rain in mountains.
jcpoulard: The NHC says "A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALL OF HISPANIOLA BY THE GOVERNMENTS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
HAITI."

Looks like they *did* post a warning. Be careful....
Whats up people......Haiti will get alot of rain, more so than wind....flooding should be your most concern....if thats not a problem.......than you should be able to sit back and relax..........as for florida........whewwwwwww..........its killing me to have to sit and wait and wait and wait..........geeeeeeezzzzzzzz....if we see a gust over 100mph with wilma i will be surprised.........the biggest concerns i have are:


1) Storm Surge

2) Tornados

those two things potentially could mess things up.....Rainfall not a problem and again if we see a gust over 100mph i will be surprised... just my opinion..
Hey Scribblin - It's not too late for people to leave Naples at all. I just spoke with the FL Hwy Patrol and they told me I75 is experiencing no delays right now. He said he thinks everyone will be leaving tomorrow. That having been said, even though reports are encouraging with regarding to a weakening of the storm, I'm still hoping to get out tonight. Would leave earlier, but we are still helping others get their plywood up. As soon as that's done it will be early evening and we will make our final call whether to leave or stay in Naples. Fortunately we have a place to stay in Georgia. Best of luck to everyone.
Am I out on a limb here, or isn't the following advisory full of nonsense?
Link

Mr. Knabb maintains that Wilma is at Cat2 strength, though none of the cited values fit with the Saffir-Simpson criteria for a Cat2 storm: near 110 MPH, 953 Mbar. These values and Dvorak Current intensity classification indicate Cat3 the way I see it. Am I missing a point here, or is the NHC classifying Wilma falsely?
Look at the front (troph) moving into the Gulf. It has a bow in it, Could this change or affect Wilma's path????
Gulf of Mexico - Visible Loop