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Wilma steadily intensifying

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:27 PM GMT on October 23, 2005

Wilma has entered a slow intensification phase the past three hours. The pressure has fallen from 963 mb to 959 mb, the eye has shrunk in diameter from 60 nm to 45 nm, and satellite imagery shows cooling cloud tops in the eyewall region--all signs of an ongoing intensification cycle. In response to this intensification cycle, the Hurricane Center has now upped their forecast of the maximum storm surge from 13 feet to 17 feet over southwest Florida. At the current rate of intensification, Wilma could become a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds by midnight.

This intensification phase should slow down or reverse by midnight, since shear is now increasing over the storm. Shear is now about 15 knots, up from 10 knots this morning. The hurricane hunters noted that strong westerly winds aloft have pushed the top of the storm eastward, so that the area of calm in the eye at 10,000 feet is about ten miles east of the surface calm area. This stretching is also beginning to be evident on satellite images, with the shape of the hurricane appearing less circular. Assuming that the shear begins weakening the hurricane at midnight, only six or eight hours remain for the shear to weaken the hurricane before landfall at 6 am or 8 am Monday morning. This may not be enough time to weaken the storm much, so I am still anticipating a 105 mph Category 2 hurricane at landfall. By the time Wilma crosses the Florida Peninsula and arrives at the east coast of Florida, she should have top winds of about 85 mph.

The remainder of my discussion from noon today appears below, unchanged.

Assuming my forecast of a landfall near Marco, Florida as a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds is a good one, we can expect a storm surge of 8 to 14 feet near that city and to the south. The Keys would see storm surge flooding of 5 to 8 feet. Fortunately, the area south of Marco is primarily uninhabited--the Everglades swamp. However, if Wilma comes ashore north of Naples--or further south near the Keys--storm surge flood damage in those areas could easily reach billions of dollars. Storm surge flooding should be only 2 - 4 feet on the east coast of Florida, where wind damage is the primary threat.


Figure 1. Storm surge map for southwest Florida.

Wilma's winds and rain
Wilma will be moving too fast to dump more than 5 - 10 inches of rain. The rain will be concentrated on the north side of the hurricane, since there will be a cold front there that will trigger more condensation. Areas to the north of the eye's passage will see winds a full Category--25 to 30 mph--lower than those on the south. This is because the storm's high rate of forward motion, near 25 - 30 mph, will add to the windspeeds seen on the south side of the Wilma's counterclockwise rotation, and subtract on the north side. Since the storm will be moving so fast, the duration of hurricane force winds will be just a few hours.

After Florida, then what?
After crossing Florida, Wilma should bring 50 - 60 mph winds to the northern Bahama Islands, but not hurricane force winds. Wilma should pass close enough to North Carolina's Outer Banks to bring 40 mph winds there and up to an inch of rain. It now appears that Wilma will bring 40 mph winds and 1 - 3 inches of rain to southeast Massachusetts, along with 20 foot waves. Boston, which has already had its fourth wettest October ever with 7.52 inches of rain, may break its October record. Nova Scotia will probably bear the brunt of Wilma's fury, receiving a direct hit by the center, along with 45 - 55 mph winds and rains of 3 - 5 inches.

Alpha
Tropical Storm Alpha, the record-breaking 22nd tropical storm of this unbelievable hurricane season, has come ashore over Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Heavy rains of up to 12 inches could cause heavy loss of life in Haiti, where 98% deforestation rates have left the island highly vulnerable to flooding from even ordinary fast-moving tropical storms like Alpha. In the event a major flood disaster does ensue, dictating the retirement of Alpha's name, there are no contingency plans on how to replace Alpha's name on the list. Alpha is moving fast enough that I am hopeful a major flooding disaster will be averted in Haiti, though.

The 10,000 foot high mountains of Hispanolia have seriously disrupted the circulation of Alpha, making it questionable how much will remain of the storm to threaten the Turks and Caicos Islands. In any event, Alpha does not have long to live, as the huge circulation of Hurricane Wilma will overtake it by Tuesday and destroy the storm with high wind shear.

I'll be back with an update in the morning, or later tonight if events warrant.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Some pretty intense deep convection in the eyewall seen in the last couple frames of satellite imagery (esp. in visible and IR channels).

Cat 3 looking more and more likely now. We'll see how much the shear affects her.
Thank you for all your hard work, kind sir.

twd
No Name Key
looks like a possible cat 3. Thanks for the update.
i think it will definitely become a cat 3 i just hope it weakens before landfall
go shear go.....go shear go........
The windfield is so large. I think we are gonna get slammed.
Doc,

You rock!

You post the most insiteful information for a hurricane watcher like myself... shows real understanding on your part. You have increased my understanding of how mother nature works in respect to this type of weather. I am greatful for your expanded view and taking the time to communicate something different than what we hear OVER and OVER again on-line and on the tube.
Really looks to me like a dead on for Ft. Myers based on what I can tell. At 5:00 she was at 23.5, 84.9 and Ft. Myers is at 26.6, 81.9 I believe. I think it must have taken that little jog northward that someone mentioned earlier. I wonder if they will revise the hurricane warnings. Probably not since it that wouldn't allow for much time for evacuations.
Ninth! Ha! Link
go shear go.....go shear go........
if you don't want to take it seriously... come on over to this coast and go to the beach at about dawn in the morning.
thank you all for your dedication to this site! i have come here regularly since hurricane season, and i love the chats as well as i love the information. figured i'd post at least once!

i and many lightworkers across the world are praying for wilma to decrease and not create such havoc! i am glad other here are praying for shear as well!!!

mahalo!

love and light
sean white
windnwaves.....Who isn't taking this "silly" (your words) seriously?? I know we are.
I'm down with the love, but not much light getting through Wilma's nimbus heads.
It upsets me to see such criticism of the NHC. I have no doubts that everyone at the Hurricane Center is trying there best to accurately predict this storm. Our technology only provides so much. Wilma has defied all logic and will do what she wants. There have been plenty of predictions from the NHC, Dr Masters, and Bloggers on this site that have been wrong.
ole fosse- I did not want to admit it, but yes, there appears to be the pinhole eye feature again.
windnwaves - lets see what you have to say tomorrow
The NHC has done a great job and kept us informed exactly as they should with what info is available. Anyone in SE Florida who didn't board up or prepare and think Wilma is just going to dissapate is an idiot. Driving around Broward, I'm dissapppointed in the level of preparation, not many as I would like to see have boarded up. A hurricane is a hurricane whether a Cat 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5. People need to stop differentiate Categories except for scientific reasons and take every hurricane seriously.
"Steve" and the storm surge


On my blog post entitled "Dying to Stay," talking about tourists trapped in Cancun, I received a comment from someone without an email address calling himself "steve" criticizing me heavily for predicting a 25-foot storm surge in Cancun. "Steve" berated me for criticizing the NHC, and then repeated their 11-foot surge prediction. He even pulled a quote from Dr. Masters' own prediction to make sure I knew that he knew just how wrong I was.

Essentially, the message was, "How dare you question the gods of Mount NHC and Mount Academia?!"

Well, here's a report from the Knight-Ridder newspaper chain from Cancun, variations of which you will find from the AP, and others news organizations on the scene: "In Cancun, the Caribbean flowed over the hotel zone, reached three stories high and merged with an inland lagoon."

Last time I looked, three stories in a hotel is significantly higher than 11 feet. Figuring the typical 10 - 15 feet per story, we are talking at least 30 feet of surge. Sorry "steve."

The reason the 11-foot prediction was obviously flawed was because it did not account for Cat 4, then Cat 3, then Cat 2 winds from the NE blowing for nearly 48 hours into Cancun. Instead, it only looked at the seabed depth, factored in an average speed for a hurricane passover, then spit out the unthinking 11-foot generic prediction.

The NHC is responsible for those who nearly lost their lives because it failed so miserably to take the surge into proper consideration and warn residents trying to do a vertical evacuation that in this hurricane, it wasn't going to work at less then 30 to 40 feet above the ground.

By the way, this wasn't just true in the Hotel District. The pitiful prediction also threatened the lives of those in first-floor ballrooms and other ground level shelters as well.

So tell us NHC, who will call you to account for the quality of your predictions? Like surgeons who bury their mistakes on the operating room table, so the NHC just drops examining its failures and no one is called to account.

In my next post, I will blog on the topic, "Who's Watching the Hurricane Watchers?" It will not only circulate on the Internet, but in the halls of Congress with each member of the appropriate NHC oversight committees receiving a personal copy.

I will document several terrible mistakes in Wilma, and review more from prior hurricanes this season. The fact that you haven't read a word about the NHC cleaning up its house after a hurricane season demonstrates my point about the NHC being an unaccountable bureaucracy holding the lives of millions in its shaky hands.

I will also offer several major improvements for the NHC and Congress to consider to improve the NHC and its task of keeping us as safe as possible from hurricanes.

I ask you to not be a mindless NHC junkie when you read the posts on the blog, but rather open your mind to the constructive critique offered to make all of safer.


Look for the post Monday at "Reading Between the Lines - Cutting through the clutter to learn what the news really means to you."

http://kennethelamb.blogspot.com
Reports of traffic flow from south to north shows nothing above normal - thats scary
KELamb- right, right, right. I posted a comment an hour ago. The Yucatan will slide into lawlessness with not nearly the personnel or will to save those 25,000 or more gringos down there. This country's leaders know they are going to become victims. There won't be a thing done until outrage occurs.
Lamb - do those in a CAT 4 Hurricanes path not bare so responsibility for not getting out of harms way??????????
hi all. hope everyone in so fla is all set for wilma. i'm over in palm beach county. shutters are up, beer's in the fridge, time to sit and wait. i'm going to try and post pics on my blog as long as the power is on...just in case anyone from out of state is curious what's it's looking like here.

take care,
jfr

A lot of Yucatan tourists were stranded because the area is by and large serviced by cruise ships, which bugged out, and weren't there for return passengers.
Hey Kenneth, go for it man, I support you 100%. Not sure if you have seen this blog, Privatization, but its right along that line. I think all these "natural" disasters might be too overwhelming for Big Brother.
So Jeremey - what would the resolution be if this were the prediction from a contractor (privatized company)????
Dear Storm:

Of course, you are absolutely correct about personal responsibility. In a blog post next week, I will document the way tour operators and cruise lines put people trying to get out of harm's way into economic blackmail by insisting they carry through on their travel reservations regardless of the personal harm they placed themselves and loved ones.

I hope to see it expand into a class action lawsuit against both groups, and will send information to specific members of Congress, and the appropriate federal and state agencies for their review for action. I will keep visitors to Reading Between the Lines updated.


Dear globalize and Jeremey:

Thank you for your kind remarks!

To all:

I have a hot date with Wilma in Everglades City, which I am chasing professionally for a leading US newspaper. I will respond to other comments and post other items from the blog in Dr. Masters' most recent blog entry.

Thank you to all for your comments, and especially to Dr. Masters, for allowing this viewpoint on the NHC to be allowed in the interests of legitimate academic freedom. We are all very fortunate he is the first-class professional and scholar that he is, so that we may all enjoy his blog and its comments!


Respectfully,

Kenneth E. Lamb

Pensacola, FL (The Heart of Hurricane Alley)

web: www.kennethelamb.com

bio: www.kennethelamb.com/bio.htm

blog: http://kennethelamb.blogspot.com
Reading Between the Lines Cutting through the clutter to learn what the news really means to you.

Concerning Wilma, two posts so far: The Mexican Death Traps, and Dying to Stay. Enjoy, and feel free to comment.

(Please see the About box on the blog for the author's background and credentials, in addition to those on his web site bio.)
Depends on who was supporting the contractor. But the privatization plan, if it gets enforced, will prevent all the information we get from this and other weather sites to have to go through, and get approved to be released, by the government.
Predicting a hurricanes strenght and track is an inexact science whatever certain people may tell you. It is very easy to judge history in hindsight when all the facts are available. To stick your neck out, with limited facts and knowledge, on a whim or a personal "gut feeling" is irresponsible in the extreme. people have to make decisions that affect thousands on consensual information form the tried and tested sources available! A conservative approach is the safest approach...
funeeeg- this your thesis if the error is on the side of caution?
privatization is just one more layer of crap only benifiting the contractor - check out the privatization of mobile home operations in LA, MS and AL. I think NHC did the best with what they had to work with and did a pretty damn good job - they predicted the path days in advance and many decided to not heed the warning - so whos falt is that???????
The construction of mobile homes anywhere in this country should have ended fifty years ago, after never having begun in the first place! All present mobile home builders should be summarily shot!
It means getting a proper perspective on all the information available and not your personal opinion or gut feeling. An individual is at liberty to say what they want as an individual, but when they are messenger for a government organisation it is a completely different story!
Hiya from The Bahamas :)
My plywood arrived too late to put up ... wind had picked up by 4 p.m. :(
I do have a new house and our building codes are one of the models South Florida used after Hurricane Andrew; so I feel relatively safe. Also, I did batten down a bedroom and a bathroom as two "safe" rooms in case of emergency. My wife has to go to work tomorrow (she's a specialcare babies' nurse) and I, being a photojournalist, am on call tomorrow. I now see what people say -- I think I will worry less about my house when the people I care about are not in it -- like it will be tomorrow. All the best to you and yours.
Eric (mybahamas)
WINK TV will begin to stream at 10pm EST
true
I just felt the first good gusts out on my balcony and we are not even in any cells right now....the sound of the wind through the sailboat masts makes a really unique howl. I hope everything here is ok later tonight....I'm getting a little worried looking at the current sat loops.
Glob - you may feel differently if you had just lost EVERYTHING with no place to go - its a good program for assistance for temp living.
I'm guessing that the absence of many of our Florida friends means they have evacuated. I hope they are all safe and well.
I didn't evacuate and am begining to wonder if I should have.
Seems to be getting a little better organised (NHC speak for; I want to say ...... but I am not allowed to).

Good luck all.
Eric (mybahamas),

Good luck across the pond. I think you guys will be fine, maybe a little breezy tomorrow afternoon, but should be out-of-there pretty quickly. I'm in the south miami / homestead area towards biscayne bay. I think we are going to get a good shot of it, hopefully it will only be for a short while, but I'm shuttered up. plants inside, patio furniture in the garage, and plenty of gas for my generator if needed. Time will tell, and all you can do is get ready the best you can.

Good Luck,

Matt (mjb1206)
ground zero. this is gonna be scary
I can't imagine that anyone in the weather field would do any less than their best at forecasting and predicting. No one knows for sure what a weather system is going to do. I am pretty amazed at how close they get it. When I was a kid, the weatherman would stand at a dry-erase type board and draw the path of the hurricane. And you had to be watching the news to get that info (and tracking on a paper map at home) I am glad I found this site to fuel my hurricane obsession - I hope the vulnerable folks in S. FLA have evacuated.
I don't think your alone keey
up to 110mph.
Last time I checked, Cancun is in Mexico. The N in NHC stands for National, not International, not Mexico, Canada, and the rest of the hemisphere. Venezula wont even allow airspace rights for our recons. Anything the NHC does for Mexico is a courtesy. Let Mexico hire their own forecasters and build their own weather technology base and make their own bloody surge predictions. I am sure NHC would gladly share any raw data.
Maybe it's punchiness from waiting so long, who knows ... Anyone besides me see the eyewall diameter as "45 nm to 60 nm" and think "Radiating in the ultraviolet!"
Too obscure? Nautical miles is abbreviated "NM", nanometers is "nm".
Chasing- completely misunderstood me. Travel and vacation trailers, and temp/emergency housing one thing. 'Mobile home' as a permanent dwelling concept NEVER!!. Americans are not a race of nomads.
winds up to 110 and pressure down i mb. I have a bad feeling that we will see cat 3 at 11pm.
Math, I get those two mixed up all the time when I'm reading these reports and have to scratch my head until I remember. I guess the professionals do too (or forget to hit the shift button)
its going to be at worst a minimal cat III for merely a few hours.....people are really overreacting but who can blame them when we've had Katrina and Rita.
We just had a gust to 51 here in Key West
Good luck Keeywester. Are you in a safe place? I mean, relatively speaking.
I agree glob - travel trailers and mobile homes are a hurricane and tornado magnet - there need to be more strengent codes to anchor them if they don't go away
If you ask me, a lot of people are underreacting. The thing is bringing a surge with it, even if it's only going to be around a few hours.
I am on the water on the north side of the island.....third floor condo. My balcony faces west.....I have no storm shutters on my slider.....so the back bedroom may be my spot if things get bad.
51 already in Key West?!
Geez, keey - that sounds scary. I hope everything holds tight for you!
I agree with globalize.....people, including myself to some degree, did not heed the evacuation. I hope KW doesn't get it too bad.
well all... i'm gonna sign off until it's over, got things to do. best wishes to everyone
latest (8 pm EDT) NHC advisory:

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

...WILMA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND STRENGTHENING AS IT
GRADUALLY ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA...
...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS IMPACTING WESTERN CUBA AND
APPROACHING THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER...AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...
BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM CDT...0000Z... DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT... NOAA DOPPLER RADARS... AND SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATE THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST OR ABOUT 170
MILES... 275 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT
225 MILES... 365 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION... WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED... IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER
OF WILMA IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WILMA IS A LARGE
SYSTEM AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL REACH THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA PENINSULA WELL BEFORE THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL.

DATA FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT THIS EVENING
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE NOW INCREASED TO NEAR 110
MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A STRONG CATEGORY
TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY... AND WILMA
COULD BE NEAR CATEGORY THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE... STRENGTH AS IT
NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST MONDAY MORNING.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES...370 KM. A WIND GUST TO 85 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED
IN HAVANA CUBA... AND A GUST TO 55 MPH WAS REPORTED AT DRY
TORTUGAS. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND WESTERN CUBA... AND THESE WINDS SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS BY MIDNIGHT... AND SPREAD EASTWARD TO
THE MIDDLE KEYS AND THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST BY SUNRISE MONDAY
MORNING.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ESTIMATED TO BE
958 MB...28.29 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 17 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST NEAR AND TO THE
SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY...AS WELL AS IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF FLORIDA.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 10 TO 15 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA...
AND 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS APPROACHING 50 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA... INCLUDING THE KEYS... THROUGH
TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 8 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS NORTHWARD TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...23.9 N... 84.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 958 MB.

HOURLY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATES WILL BE ISSUED BEGINNING
AT 9 PM EDT. THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART
Globalise- To be conservative means that when you occasionally advise that a really big one is coming people believe you.
We just got some really big gusts....the sound of the wind is getting louder.
a gust to 51....not that surprising...here in san antonio we just had a gust to 40..... OMG we didn't evacuate for that strong cold front.
Looking at the local KW radar right now, I am seeing a much better defined eye with a lot of intense colors around the eye. My radar pointer shows us being 138 miles from the edge of the eyewall.
Hey Nola, I'm still here. Could not convince DH to leave, and too much the fool for love to leave without him. I'd rather die with him than live without him. Me, hubby and the two dogs are riding it out. It is very cave-like in here with all the windows covered in plywood. I have to say, I'm scared, but the beers are starting to help. I feel comforted by the fact that we were not asked to evacuate by our local officials. We are inland quite a bit, and I'm hoping that means we are safer.
I agree, sngalla. This is not the place for that.
just had another gust to at least 40...temperature is dropping...i'll probably lose power soon. think i'm just gonna ride this front out on my couch.
GoldenGate...we call our shuttered home, the batcave. Lol.
Hello Everyone, Im new to this site and have that all the comments posted are very informative. I would like to know if we can expect any type of hurricane force winds in the miami dade county area?
Wow. My husband and I decided to ride out Georges in New Orleans a few years ago. We ended up lucking out (people were predicting a Katrina-like outcome)
I hope y'all are safe and secure. I'm thinking about you!
yes, yes and yes miamiman.
Bad Texas humor....must be looking forward to next year's tornado season.
thanks NOLA
Keeywester- yes, don't freak, but the eye appears to be tightening.
good luck to everyone hanging tight in FL. friend in Bonita says her condo has the shutters, but "didn't get around" to her side of the building. irresponsible. she's going to stay put. local forecasts (Ft. Myers) continue to say landfall in Collier with hurricane force winds being felt north of Cape Coral. it's about 8:21 EDT. lots of neighbors here in S. Lee (San Carlos) have boarded up; many have not. These are not newer homes, and I doubt that many have replaced old windows with impact-resistant ones. Scary thought.
good luck all -
SWM
Thankyou for the info sng
Speaking of tornados, any more warnings up?
Looks like it is continuing to intensify. What happened to the forecasted shear?
folks latest GOES satellite pics (visible, IR and WV) have Wilma looking more organized and strengthening - batten down the hatches in south Florida please
Sheer is supposed to stop the intensification at midnight, per Dr.'s blog above. Hope he's right.
The eye is staring to get symmetrical and clear, and the whole storm is becoming a "donut" again. Seems as if the shear is affecting it less and less.
The eye is starting to appear in the key west radar.
Does the color change in the eye in the IR loop mean the eye is clearing out?
Im definitely noticing the intensification on the dvorak
According to Max Mayfield at the NHC, the storm IS intensifying.
Are you watching TV, sngalla? Has there been a news conference?
Watching Norcross. Mayfield was on just a bit ago.
Norcross just pointed out on the radar why they feel that the storm is strengthening.
Some of you here, esp. the neophytes, may find this site useful. It's a bit like one stop shopping, since the guy that runs the site adapts it to each storm. No personal forecasts; just a collection of advisories, discussions, satellite and radar images from NWS, NHC, GOES and even Wunderground. Click on the satellite/radar images and it links you to the loops.

Link
NOLA - yes, eye is clearing, and she's ramping up
I just saw the shortwave ir loop the and i noticed that the cloup tops are getting colder and much more organized.
Gretra Van Sustren is reporting on Wilma on Fox??? What the heck does she know about Wx????
Local forecasters are showing the new GFDL on TV...showing a bullseye landfall around 8am EST on Everglades City, just south of Marco Island, with 108 knot winds, pressure 950 mb. Northern eye wall will go through Naples, Bonita Springs, etc. Current location is 198 miles from landfall. Still a big tornado threat in the area, too.
That's a good site, everything on one page. Thanks bug.
You still here Golden Gate?
I think she was reporting from Naples......Her contribution? "This place is flat and all this houses could get washed away." I like Fox but they're scraping the bottom of the Wx barrel puutting her out there.
Hey nightbloomingjasmine...I'm in Orange Tree (hunkered down).
Yeah, NOLA, kind of one stop shopping, you don't have to keep jumping from place to place.....great for the neophytes on here, esp. since none of it is really technical. Just good basic info.
106. SpyRI
Wow, I don't post often here (but read every day) and my thoughts are with you all who are in the way of Wilma. Good luck and be careful! This hurricane season has gone past being interesting intp being just scary. What's left of Wilma is supposed to absorb Alpha and meet up with a nor'easter for one heck of a mess up here in a few days, and it's starting to feel personal- my sister lives in NOLA, and my brother flew out of Cancun on Wednesday- it's like they're chasing us! (not to anthropomorphize the weather, but ;> )
Again, good luck, be careful, and if you can take pics, please share!
I'm definitely in the neophyte club, so it's good for me.
Hi Scribblin I'm in Coconut River Estates. Hubby's kicking himself right now. I might do it for him!!
Thanks SpyRI
jxnkrock- no...i don't live in a trailer park so i'll be safe from tornadoes...

Did you mean ...safer from tornadoes. In that case I understood you.
We had reservations in Orlando. Decided it wasn't going to be too bad. HA
Me, too, NOLA. Still learning. :-)
I'm glad we have teenagers in here, like jxnkrock, to make stupid comments on serious issues.
Greta reporting on the hurricane...why not? Isn't she Wilma and Barney's love child?
I hate Fox news.
116. dcw
WHOA. Look on the IR loop, last frame has an almost completely clear eye with eyewall cloud tops at -80c.
I'd rather have Greta reporting on Wilma than reporting on Natalee!
nightbloomingjasmine...LOL...real men will always pick Wilma over Mickey. Or something like that.
119. SpyRI
I don't know if it's verboten to quote from Accuweather here, but the 8.00 summary had some tidbits that I hadn't seen elsewhere (probably don't know where to look). If it's not ok to post this, please mods, remove and forgive.
"Wilma's landfall should be around sunrise tomorrow near Naples with pressure readings similar to a category 3 storm although the winds may not be that high. The wind field will be spread out so the Keys and areas from the hurricane track south and east will receive the strongest wind gusts...over 100 mph. Winds north of the center to Tampa will gust to 60 mph with gusts to hurricane force as far north as Vero Beach. Gales will howl along the East Coast to Wilmington NC. Heavy rain of 3-6 inches will occur across central and south Florida Sunday night and Monday with a few locally higher amounts. Winds from the Outer Banks to Long Island, New York Monday night and Tuesday can reach 60 mph in gusts with flooding rains expected. The hurricane itself stays out at sea and becomes the eastern focal point of the large ellipse of low pressure Tuesday night. The winds in the coastal waters of New England will mount to sustained storm force with gusts to hurricane force and seas should rise to near 30 feet. Windswept rains of 1-3 inches should cover much of New Jersey and southeast New York with 3-6 inch amounts in southeast New England. Snows will break out Tuesday in the high grounds from northeast Pennsylvania to central New England.

You cant make this stuff up.

As for Alpha, the system's overall cloud structure has maintained itself after moving over the island of Hispaniola and should the low level circulation redevelop, a quick intensification to a 60 mph storm is possible by Monday afternoon. Alpha should be located ahead of Wilma by Monday night but probably will become part of one system farther north in the Atlantic. "

Link
I'm laughingm out loud at all the Greta comments. We haven't heard from keeywest in a while. Hope you're alright.
The latest NHC position estimate suggests Wilma is about to reach Category 3 intensity - 115 mph at 11:00 pm?
dcw- yeah, the convection is getting really nasty in the right front quadrant. The way it is wrapping the eye will be 5-10 miles in diameter by landfall.
I want your opinion everyone in this blog right now. On flhurricane.com's blog they are in agreement with each other that Wilma's moving ene and not ne. What do you all think? is she moving ne or ene? They also believe she is climbing and will make landfall farther north than anticipated. So again what's your thoughts on this also?
Max Mayfield was just on with Norcross and he said plan on a cat 3 hitting Florida.
SpyRI, that is a sobering post - I don't think they mind at all if you quote them here. I guess the "You can't make this stuff up." is your comment. So true. This year's weather has been like watching a movie. Several movies.

I sure hope that this thing loses some intensity after midnight.
Does anyone have or know how to get Havana's radar to view
Wild - if I were anywhere between Key West and Long Boat Key, I would be prepared for the absolute worst. Katrina jogged to the east at the last minute and devastated MS coast, even though she was losing strength.
Key West NEXRAD showing 110 knots in a cell now...
willdd1979...I think ENE, but not because I have any special skill in deciphering all the info. Local forecasters here in Naples have been homing in on Everglades City (the Ten Thousand Islands area) for something like the past three hours, constantly talking about surge predictions and practically begging people to clear out of that area. They sound pretty nervous.
wildd1979- well, if they are saying the storm is heading ene and not ne, then they can't be predicting a more northerly landfall. That's a contradiction.
We've got a really big cell about to rotate in from the south....this should be our best one yet.
Crazy - what does that mean?

Key West NEXRAD showing 110 knots in a cell now...
These people in Key West don't realize they'll get hit first, instead of last like in a hurricane coming from the east. WFOR 4 kept interviewing these people, "We go to Naples, we'll get hit, we go to Miami, we'll get hit, so we'll stay here." Idiots.
Sgrego72 link to radarLink
scroll down to radar imagery
good point, global
Sgrego72- yeah, I could tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya!
Latest recon report from 23:53Z shows pressure back to 959, and max flight level wind of only 71 knots. Maybe it's done strengthening?
thanks all who made comments to questions I posted i appreciate you all since it's helping me learn cuz I believe life experience beats out book experience.
scribblin He actually likes Mickey. He just didn't want to leave home. Been watching local weather all evening and they have really stressed Everglades City
Click here - one cell shows 110 knots (deep in the storm) - that would be 125 mph - is this pulling a Charley?
The eye is shoiwng up very well on the Havana radar.
I have been lurking here all week. I have to say something now about a certain comment I just read about people overeacting (you know who you are) I live in Punta Gorda and rode Charley out in a closet. No hurricane is to made light of. I decided to stay here in Punta Gorda again when I saw all models taking the storm way to the south of us and what is going on in the atmosphere now. Charley was supposed to go past us but took a jog to the east. This storm is different but I am still a nervous wreck. We just had our roof replaced a month or so ago. The foundation to the house is cracked from Charley too. Be safe everyone in the path of this storm, it is not a joke.
Chrispc24- cool stuff, Chris. Amazing that the thing's eye is still closed.
Hey.. anyone have a link to lefties blog.. I'm in my "safe house" and not on my regular PC. BTW I've got gen power for the whole place here.. so I should be able to post as long as comcast stays in service.
146. SpyRI
Believe it or not, the "You can't make this stuff up" came from the official summary I linked to- I think Wilma's surprising even veteran meteorologists! This is my first season really watching and trying to understand tropical weather, and all the books I've read aren't helping much with understanding the storms we've had this season!
But perfect choice of words, NOLAinNC, it is "sobering."
Cold clouds

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/ECIR4.html
Follow the lats and longs and you can tell what direction it is moving. I still feel somewhere very near to Ft. Myers. Maybe a little south a little north but not far.
149. dcw
8.0 Extremo

Lol. Look at the position estimate at www.nhc.noaa.gov. They mention recon data, but there's no new Vortex. Anyone know why?
yeah does anyone have a link to lefty's blog I wanna see what he has to say also
a couple of hours ago we began getting some gusty winds and thunderstorms here in Pinellas county. Amazing how far these storms can reach.
Crazy, great link - I have not seen that page before. I think I understand how it works. How do they identify cells within the bands? It's amazing they can do that.
nightbloomingjasmine...Good, you noticed that, too. I thought maybe I was misinterpreting that. The local guys seemed pretty nervous about an Everglades City landfall even before the new GFDL came out and pegged it.

Things that make you say, "Hmmmm."
For lefty just click on blogs and then scroll down.
Oops. that was lefty's blog link
Hey guys,
can someone post the a link to lefties blog. I'm in my "safe house" and not using my own PC.
Thanks
Thanks Matt ... I have a sister in North Miami Beach and I hoped she battened down as well.
Rest well all of you and the best for the rest of the season. :)
btw, here's a peaceful track I produced that hopefully will take you away to a quieter place :

Link
160. dcw
ATTN: Everyone looking for Lefty's blog.

Go to the blog index page. Thats "http://wunderground.com/blog/index.html?range=updated". Find Lefty's name in the list. Click on it.

Why do you GO to Lefty's blog? There isn't anything semi-useful there!
It's the technology of Doppler Radar. It has been up and down, now a lot of cells in the 80 knot range but no more real big ones at the moment...82 knots is the largest.
Ftmeyrs, see my link above, or do what nola said, click on blogs, then scroll down to lefty420 and click there.
What do you mean windnwaves?
Did you ever get your plywood mybahamas? Hope so and hope you're doing okay.
windnwaves aka 8888899...no, the colder the cloud tops, the more violent the storm.
Lots of transformers exploding here across the water at the Navy property....huge green flashes! So far I still have power here....it's really picking up.
Allo Jimster .. it arrived to late to put up ... too windy for the 22-foot ladder :(
I have secured two rooms as "safe" in case anything happens, though, with shutters I built when Rita passed through.
I wish the best to all dealing with Rita :)
OK This thing can't really get any stronger can it???? God I hope not Looks like we'll be in the bathroom with all the animals in the morning.
Key West is where you are? Looking at the radar, you have a clearing for the next hour or so, then comes the outer eyewall...
keeywester- hello, and hang on bud. My oldest sis lives in Cudjoe Key (Summerland). She wanted to stay, but she's in Vero for the night. Glad you're riding it out.
Night all, for now. Got to get some rest before this thing really gets interesting.
This thing is getting better organized looking at the radar...
Hello to all this thing looks like it's intensifying pretty quick, is everyone underestimating this?
That's what I am wondering - I'd say this is a 120 mph storm at least now...I wouldn't be surprised if it is a Category 4 at landfall now...
nightblooming...where are you? It appears it won't intensify much more. The last few radar loops show it leveling off in intensity. It's strange that it has strengthened at all, considering the influences which should be weakening it. But who knows?
Radar presentation is showing the eye trying to shrink and the IR satellite is doing the same. Don't know how much it will intensify but I hope everyone that decided to stay listened to the NHC, i.e. prepare for a cat. 3 'cane. I wish the best for those that stayed. There is still time for the storm to weaken (as the jet stream sags South, or to intensify, which seems to be the norm this year for the gulf).
Knowing what happened with Charley, if I lived there, I would have prepared for a Category 4 hurricane...
Colder cloud tops are indicative of more intense convection taking place in the hurricane, not "it's less like a hurricane." Not sure if that was misinformed or a troll...
Crazy, I have to agree, these storms in the gulf seem to want go crazy and defie logic. What ever it is...this thing is intensifing right now. The colder tops are building esp on the NW-W side.
Definitely. While I wonder if the 119 and 114 kt recordings are real or a fluke, I'd still put the intensity at least at 120 mph (105 kt) right now (Category 3)...
183. dcw
Please remember all, the doppler velocities are at an angle. To figure out true elevation of the echoes:

tan (angle)*distance from radar station=elevation

For example, the eyewall is a a 5000ft elevation from the Key West Radar (tan .5 * 124nm = 1.small nm high, 1nm=5280ft/1.15=4xxxft, 1.small * 4xxx ~ 5000). A 5000 foot elevation wind sig should be multiplied by .9 for ground use, so 123kt sig on Key West * .9 * 1.15 (kts to mph) gives 125mph surface.
184. dcw
!!!!!!!!!

185KT READING FROM KEY WEST!

!!!!!!!!!
000
URNT12 KNHC 240135
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/01:12:40Z
B. 24 deg 15 min N
084 deg 08 min W
C. 700 mb 2732 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 142 deg 114 kt
G. 039 deg 027 nm
H. 958 mb
I. 8 C/ 3053 m
J. 14 C/ 3047 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. CO45-60
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF305 2424A WILMA OB 13
MAX FL WIND 114 KT NE QUAD 01:04:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 16 C, 225 / 24NM
OUTER EYE IS RAGGED
INNER EYE IS OPEN E-SW
186. dcw
By the way, look at Base Radial Velocity for winds, the tracks are how fast individual cells are moving.
Looking at that recording, I think they'll set it at 125 mph.
188. dcw
That 181 wasn't a gust! Unless gusts occur at 5k and 15k feet simultaneously? And hold for 5 minutes? Still showing 180+ at 5k and a crazy 200+KTS at 15000! Can a storm of this size even DO that?
Where are you getting those numbers from?
THX
190. dcw
...Wilma strengthens into a major category 3 hurricane...
...Tropical storm-force winds lashing the lower Florida Keys
and western Cuba...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for all of the Florida
Keys... including the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay...along the
Florida West Coast from Longboat Key southward... and along the
Florida East Coast from Titusville southward... including Lake
Okeechobee.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z... the Tropical Storm Warning along the Florida
East Coast has been extended northward to St. Augustine. A Tropical
Storm Warning is now in effect along the Florida West Coast north
of Longboat Key to Steinhatchee river...and along the Florida East
Coast north of Titusville to St. Augustine.

A tropical storm watch is now in effect along the northeast coast of
Florida from north of St. Augustine to Fernandina Beach.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of
Ciudad de la Habana...la Habana...and Pinar del Rio. A Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect for the Isle of Youth. A Hurricane
Watch remains in effect for the province of Matanzas. These warnings
and watches will likely be discontinued Monday morning.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the northwestern
Bahamas...including the Abacos...Andros Island...Berry Islands...
Bimini...Eleuthera...Grand Bahama Island...and New Providence.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane
hunter aircraft... NOAA Doppler radars... and satellite images
indicate the center of the large eye of major Hurricane Wilma was
located near latitude 24.4 north... longitude 83.7 west or about
120 miles... 195 km... west of Key West Florida and about 170
miles... 275 km...southwest of Naples Florida.

Wilma is moving toward the northeast near 18 mph...30 km/hr. A
continued northeastward motion... with a gradual increase in forward
speed... is expected tonight and Monday. On this track...the center
of Wilma is forecast to make landfall along the southwestern coast
of the Florida Peninsula early Monday morning. However... Wilma is
a large hurricane and tropical storm force winds will reach the
Florida Peninsula well before the eye makes landfall. The eastern
portion of the eyewall... accompanied by the strongest winds...
will reach the southwestern coast of Florida about 2 hours before
the center of the large eye makes landfall.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph...185 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Wilma is a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Little change in strength is expected until landfall occurs
...And Wilma will likely make landfall as a category 3 hurricane.
Some slow weakening is forecast as Wilma crosses the southern
Florida Peninsula... but the hurricane is forecast to still be a
significant category two hurricane by the time the center reaches
the Florida East Coast early Monday afternoon.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 230 miles...370 km. Sustained tropical storm-force winds are
occurring over the Yucatan Channel... western Cuba... and the lower
and middle Florida Keys. These winds should reach the southwestern
Florida coast by midnight... with hurricane-force winds reaching
the Lower Keys and southwestern Florida coast before sunrise.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force
Reserve unit hurricane hunter aircraft was 958 mb...28.29 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 9 to 17 ft above normal tide levels is
possible along the southwest Florida coast near and to the
south of where the center of Wilma makes landfall. Storm surge
flooding of 5 to 8 ft above normal is possible in the Florida Keys
and Florida Bay... as well as in Lake Okeechobee. Storm surge
flooding of 2 to 4 feet is possible along the extreme southeastern
coast of Florida.

Wilma may produce additional rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10
inches through Monday across portions of western Cuba. Rainfall
across southern Florida and portions of central Florida...
including the Florida Keys... through Monday afternoon is expected
to be 4 to 8 inches... with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches
possible. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches will be possible over
portions of the northwest Bahamas.

Large swells generated by Wilma will continue to affect portions of
the northeastern Gulf Coast from the Florida Keys northward tonight
and early Monday.

The tornado threat across the central and southern Florida Peninsula
... And the Florida Keys... has increased significantly. Scattered
tornadoes will be possible in these areas tonight through Monday
afternoon.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...24.4 N... 83.7 W. Movement
toward...northeast near 18 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...115 mph. Minimum central pressure... 958 mb.

Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 1 am EDT and 3 am EDT followed
by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.

Forecaster Stewart

NBC 2 in Ft. Myers has it as a 115mph Cat 3.
Hello from the north side of Key West.....It's really cranking outside right now.....unbelievable winds in the last few minutes
193. dcw
The Base Radial Velocity from the Key West Radar. Hit the advanced radar options, then Base Radial Velocity .50.

194. dcw
Wow, is anyone watching TWC? They just showed footage of this massive waterspout off Key West.
From my vantage point, about 1/2 of Key West appears to be without power.
globalize, I'm in Naples
Naples get ready.....what we are feeling now is not too far away from you
Yea I see it coming
People need to remember this is the storm that dropped 87 mb in 12 hours, and reached a record 882mb! It won't do that again, but it can intensify very fast, and it has.
here is a link to the Key West radar ... it is ana animated gif so let it load ... also the page will reload every 3 minutes
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/radbyx.html
201. dcw
We could embed that radar, but it'd make scrolling...how ya'll feel?
I'm watching the Ir and the radar and am trying to determine whether the eye is trying to close in or is degrading. It has made several attemps at getting smaller in the last couple of hours. It is defficult to tell if it is trying increase or decrease in intensity.
957mb
204. h0db
NHC made Wilma officially a CAT 3 Major Hurricane in their 23:00 EDT advisory.

000
WTNT34 KNHC 240241
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

...WILMA STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...
...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS LASHING THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
AND WESTERN CUBA...

Link
lets see if this will work .. Key West Radar .. updated every 3 minutes....

nope .. tried to use an iframe and use my server to shrink the image down .. oh well
anyone see that weird vortex in the south portion of the eye in the KW radar? What's that all about?
the radar echo makes it look like an eye within the eye
I have been watching it. I have a hypothesis that it may be response to the approaching jet stream from the N. The eye may be trying to re-form to the south of the main eye.
If you look at the IR loop you can see convection in the N part of the eye. This is either an attempt to close the eye off to as smaller eye or the eye is begining to degrade and the covection is filling in. Hard to tell atm. Would be interesting to see what the latest recon shows.
It looks like the E side is warming. Maybe it has seen its strongest point. This NOT a prediction just an observation.
Guys, the radar speed is NOT winds.. it's how fast the cell is moving...

Read the FAQ on the Radar:
Speed (knots) - Speed of the storm movement in knots.
213. dcw
Cool storm. I'm pulling an all-nighter, this is exciting.
Yup
The eye wall looks distorted with small bands imbedded in it. Who knows, that eye is huge. I agree, it is interesting but I hope that is begging to reduce in strength for the sake of those that stayed and for the properties of those that didn't.
Hi everyone - I live in Tampa and just want to say my thoughts are with everyone to the south.

When Wilma finally bids farewell I think most people will realize how utterly amazing it is that the NHC and all the other forecasters hit this complex storm on the head. For days on end Accu Weather and the NHC predicted landfall close to Naples - for days on end the NHC center stated that the storm would be moving at 20 kts at landfall ( a certain Accue Weather forecaster mocked the idea of her forward speed - stating that Wilma would be much, much slower and less intense than NHC forecasts) And for days on end the NHC stated that the landfall intensity would be hard to nail down but that it would likely be a Cat. 2 or 3.
Hey I get frustrated with the NOAA when they call for ideal fishing winds of 5-10 mph and I end up getting battered by 15-20 but I also realize that we make due with the technology in place and after viewing the accuracy of the Wilma forecasts - I'm impressed.

Just now starting to get some moderate rains and the winds have been a steady 20mph.
I'll be watching this all night
Hey Keeywester, you still with us? Anything to report?

Radar looks like a good size band is coming through soon, 30 mins. Stay safe!

Dog
I am here in West Palm Beach and unless I
get in the car now and drive north, it might be...unpleasant.
Anyone wants any side conversation:

manley20@bellsouth.net
My animals are starting to freak out, they feel the barometer dropping probably.
221. wpbwx
What do you do in a tornado and how do you know it is coming?
Head to the basement, of course. And pray that the tornado doesn't have enough mojo to get to ya!
223. wpbwx
West Palm does not have basements. Next best thing?
next best thing...have a safe room..small room usually bathroom, because of the plumbing it makes the room even safer....
Tonados occur w/o much warning, so you would go to the strongest part of the house. Thats what I hope those that stayed does for the 'cane. However, given the fact that ample warning is given and the NHC said that it could be a 3, I would of gotten the hell out. It would be interesting to stay and experience one of natures most wonderous creations but...

Then again I have been known to have an adventureous spirit at times. Guess you would have to be there to know what you would do. Common sense doesn't always win.
when you 1st get on wunderground.com it shows the U.S. map my question is what effect if any will those 2 fronts (the one in Fl and the one in the southern southeast) have on Wilma direction wise?
227. wpbwx
Thanks. The hurricane does not bother me. The tornados scare me. Oh that gust moved our shutters
Time to sign off for the night. wish everybody involved lots o' luck. This monster has been in some ways the most interesting of all, from an observers point of view. But none of them are something to be wished for.

Out until tomorrow.

229. wpbwx
My neighbours in west palm did not start putting their shutters up until this afternoon. They thought it would be a 1. With all of you I had everything prepared yesterday. I also told my neighbours most of you thought it would become a cat 3 and put up the shutters.
on another's blog the bloggers are saying it's moving more north then ne is this right or wrong? also I was taught that if it moves in a direction and it's not observed for 6 hrs. this is a qualified wobble & if a movement be it north, south, or east is observed for 6 hrs. it's a qualified movement now was I taught right or wrong?
Hi - I'm a Wunderground newcomer from South Miami, FL. Its beginning to pick up here - the local news is saying that given the size of the eye, if the storm tracks thru marco/broward/palm beach, then Miami-Dade Co. could get the worst winds. (Shutter). at any rate, i just peeked outside. Our wooden fence is blown over and the barometer is at 29.24 and falling. Ill be around so long as Wilma allows...
Yes,it looks more NNE than NE to me as well
that would be bad for my area
233. iyou
hey all - www.cbs4.com/ has good coverage of Wilma.
Think Keeywester is gone, unless he's got a generator and uplink. Just saw all power go down in Key West, par CNN reporter Tuchman.
http://www.nbc-2.com is streaming live
236. iyou
oops!-www.cbs4.com/ also streaming live...
Im watching CBS 4 and Norcross...they just reported that all 24000 ppl on key west are without power.
238. SpyRI
Hey, IO reallize this is random and OT, but why has Dave Schwartz not been on The Weather Channel all week? He's my favorite meteorologist, Dr. Masters nothwithstanding, and I miss watching him! Anyone know where/why???
And again, good luck to all in FL!!!
Yeah, Schwartz is a good weatherman, and a space cadet!
He cracks me up.
240. dcw
Well, now that Wilma is on her way out...shall we start obsessively watching every model run and tropical wave for Beta?

*raises glass* To Hurricane Omega!
It's funny that they have Mike Seidel in Key West and he hasn't even seen sustained hurricane force yet.
I just saw a weatherman from Key West report on TWC with a life jacket on. It also had a chem-light on it. Not a good sign!

It's squalling pretty good here in the Punta Gorda area, I say 25mph sustained with 40mpg gusts.

Thats just guessing though.
I guess keeywester lost power.
244. dcw
Where's the 3AM?
Look at this radar from Key West:Link. What the heck is that eye doing, collapsing? Getting smaller?
135kt wind on recon
whats the chance that Wilma will merge with the Low in the eastern US and hit Southern NE more south and west than Cape Cod...wat would that mean 4 NJ shore, NYC, and Long Island?
Very notable:

track is far further south than previously
forecast.

Eye IS shrinking....

Storm is maintaining strength

My Live Journal Blog
249. dcw
135kt recon, thats 140mph at surface using 90%!
It's getting interesting here in NE Naples. Power was out from 2:20am EST until about 4:40am. Big wind gusts are making my screened porch scream. Didn't hear that during Charley. Power flickering.
Bradenton: 20 - 30 Kt winds down in our protected hollow, some gusts higher. Dog sleeping soundly, wife isn't -- more because of frogs gronking outside our bedroom window than because of rain and wind noise, which are still minor. We've had a couple of momentary power outages in the last few hours, but FPL gives us those when it's sunny and calm, so no big deal. (UPS mandatory here.)

It's time to secure my converted-lanai office, including doggie door. Dog and I will go into the main house, try to get some sleep. Maybe make some coffee in my thermal pot coffeemaker so I'll have some if I wake up powerless. Be prepared and all that!
Nearby weather station has 29 mph winds NE with gusts above 60, but that seems awfully conservative. Local forecasters say the eye is about 14 miles off Marco Island...winds there are around 100 mph sustained with gusts to 125 mph. Marco is 30 miles south of my position.
Power just went out in our south Fort Myers home. Winds only 55 mph.
Soakin wet here, just saw the green flash of a transformer glow.
Substations are out near Marco and just north of me in Immokalee.

Local forecasters are saying this is the first time a major hurricane has hit Naples since Donna in 1960. Approx. 20 percent of the county did not evacuate because they didn't believe it would really happen.
Eye is about to make landfall on Marco Island.
Local forecasters are showing a satellite graphic of tornadic rotation in the NW quadrant eyewall of Wilma as it approaches Naples. Rotation is still out over the water.
Where's the shear????? I thought the experts said shear would weaken the storm s bit.
259. OGal
Well, the day has finally come. Here in Winter Springs we are having heavy rain. Several tornado warnings have been out over Central Florida. My cats are wanting in and out (just on the lani) very restless, me too. Hang on everyone, at least we can look forward to cool weather for a short time after this Wilma person is gone. Stay happy, South Florida, our thoughts are with you.
Here in North Naples....

power went out about an hour and a half ago...I still have laptop battery and dialup...gusts here to 60 mph, based on elementary school weather station across the street...winds have been ENE to NE...my weather station anenometer is obstructed in this direction by my neighbor...we are in the eyewall right now, albeit the NW portion...which is the least of the eyewall...pressure is 28.54"....nearly 5 " of rain here...small leaks in the house, but so far so good...I have ss of radar image but will wait to upload until I have started generator in a couple hours..

lots of us are in my blog. lots of peoplefrom florida as well. tons ofinfo so please stop by

lefty's blog Link
262. KS4EC
Great Radar - Check out th ewind speeds at the bottom - WOW 132 Kts!
Link
here is a blast from the past!!!
Hurricane Wilma's landfall in Leftyy's blog!


543. seflagamma 6:54 AM AST on October 24, 2005

Just got up again after going back to bed around 4am.
It is almost 7am now and the winds are howling and roaring. Raining. Winds from EAst now and wipping my trees. In gusts they lay flat. It is bad now and the worse is yet to come. One wall of screen in my patio (east side) has blown in. I see it is just now making landfall around Marco (if what is see is correct). Did not have time to read




that was my last post from my home computer for a week! LOL