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Wilma: nightmare for Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:44 PM GMT on October 20, 2005

Hurricane Wilma made its expected turn northwest, and is now headed towards Cozumel Island as an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane capable of massive destruction. A new hurricane hunter plane arrived at the center at 2:45 pm EDT, and found a central pressure of 918 mb and surface winds of 150 mph. The 4:16 pm report had the same pressure and winds, so Wilma has leveled out in intensity. Wilma has completed an eyewall replacement cycle, and now has a large 40 mile diameter eye. Some intensification is likely the next 18 hours before Wilma comes ashore in the Yucatan. It is possible Wilma can eclipse its record 882 mb pressure, but she probably will not have enough time to do that.


FIgure 1. Topography of the ocean bottom. Where a long expanse of shallow waters over the Continental Shelf (light blue) exist next to the coast, one can expect increased storm surge potential. The waters off the coast of Cancun/Cozumel are quite deep, limiting the maximum potential storm surge to about 11 feet. The Continental Shelf is quite extensive off the west coast of Florida, making that region prone to large storm surges. Image credit: NOAA.

Wilma's impact on Mexico
Wilma's impact on Mexico is likely to be catastrophic. A 50-mile wide stretch of coast will receive Category 4 to 5 sustained winds of over 150 mph, causing incredible damage. As Wilma sits in place for two days, the long duration of high winds will cause far more damage than a quickly moving storm would. The long duration extreme winds will probably cause some of the worst wind damage ever seen in a hurricane. The storm surge will not be as much as a problem, because deep water just offshore will prevent a huge storm surge from piling up. Still, the expected storm surge of up to 11 feet will cause widespread damage to coastal structures.In adddition, rainfall amounts of 15 - 25 will cause serious flooding. Wilma is likely to be Mexico's worst weather disaster in history.


Figure 2. Computer model tracks for Hurricane Wilma.

Where will Wilma go?
A trough of low pressure moving across the central U.S. has turned Wilma more to the northwest today, on a track towards Cozumel Island. The lastest 12Z (8am EDT) runs of all four major models used to track hurricanes--the GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, and UKMET--agree on a landfall on Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula Friday, followed by a one to two day period of slow and erratic movement over land. By Sunday, strong westerly winds fill in behind the trough and pick up Wilma, and move her across South Florida by Monday. Once Wilma does make the crossing from Mexico to Florida, I expect little change in strength. While the waters are still warm enough to support intensification, this will be offset by increasing wind shear associated with the westerly winds driving Wilma.

How believable is all this? As we've seen many times this hurricane season, when the models come into alignment, it's usually a good sign that the forecast is correct. This is particularly true when data from the NOAA jet is used to initialize the models, which is the case here. However, in a case where the steering currents are weak, there is much less confidence. In addition, just a small 100 mile error in forecast means the difference between Wilma staying over warm waters and maintaining its intensity, or moving ashore and weakening significantly. The Canadian model (which has not performed well with Wilma) is forecasting that she will stay primarily over water the next three days.

Given all these factors, I'd give Wilma a 10% chance of arriving on the Florida west coast as a Category 3 or higher storm, 20% as a Category 2, 40% as a Category 1, and 30% as a tropical storm. On Florida's east coast, knock these value down by half a Category (10 - 15 mph).

After Florida, then what?
There is no change to the forecast. After crossing Florida, Wilma is threat to the northern Bahama Islands. Wilma should pass well offshore North Carolina, but close enough to bring tropical storm force winds to the Outer Banks. Wilma is expected to merge with a large low pressure system as she approaches Maine or Nova Scotia next week, and could bring tropical storm force winds to Cape Cod, Maine, and the Canadian Maritime provinces.

What's behind Wilma?
There is a large area of disorganized thunderstorms near 12N 57W, about 300 miles east of the Leeward Islands. Wind shear is too high to permit development of this area over the next day or two.

I'll be back tomorrow with the lastest. For those of you in Florida looking for storm surge maps of your county, check out the floridadisaster.org website.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

This going so slow is very stressing for SE Florida
How big is Wilma in relation to Katrina?
I can't say enough about the value of the blogs by Dr. Steve and Jeff, and I do appreciate reading all the comments. It's so hard to wait and watch without saying anything, and although we just don't know what will happen eventually, it helps to vent.

I'm encouraged that Steve's estimate is 70% that Wilma will hit FL as a Cat 1 or less, but hope that somehow Cozumel and Cancun and the surrounding areas are spared, although it's hard to see how that will happen.

They are similar in size.
It is nice to know that the recon report of 145knotswas a misprint. 145mph is a much nicer figure. I am conflicted over the emotions of dread for the Yucatan, if the forecast holds, but relief for us in Florida, if the forecast holds.
We in The Bahamas are very concerned as to how strong she will be. Most of the models are now forecasting a jaunt over the Florida Cays instead of the mainland, making the weakening even less for us :(
Oops, I meant Dr. Jeff's estimate. You both are enormously helpful anyway.
Ditto here in SWFLA Matilda, but I am encouraged too by Dr. Jeff's percentage predictions.
I am encouraged by dr masters predictions of strength at landfall.
We're now under voluntary evacuations in Cape Coral, specifically in my neighborhood. It's almost like they gave my address with the streets and the direction.
gimme shear, gimme shear, gimme gimme gimme more shear!
My wife's Mexican tour, which was to start in Playa del Carmen yesterday was put off until Saturday. (She's safely still in New York at the moment)
Saturday's looking pretty unlikely on the latest forecasts isn't it?
I notice American Airlines has extented the period that people going to Cancun can change their flights from Oct 22 to Oct 26.
Latest NHC advisory. Big question - will Wilma "thread the needle" and go through yucatan Channel?

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2005

...WILMA A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BELIZE FROM THE
BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.7 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...
220 KM... SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR... AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF WILMA WILL BE VERY NEAR THE
COASTLINE OF THE YUCATAN BY MIDDAY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...WILMA HAS A
LARGE CIRCULATION AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT WELL BEFORE
THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH AS IT
APPROACHES THE YUCATAN TONIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA AIRCRAFT WASS 918
MB...27.11 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE...
PARTICULARY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN CUBA.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN
ISLAND...AND PORTIONS OF HONDURAS THROUGH FRIDAY.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...18.9 N... 85.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 918 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
where you headed bwana? i'm staying, but hope to catch up with you when you return
Yes, Cape Coral is under voluntary evacuations. I still am going to "wait and see". Our local forecasters were worth their weight in gold during Charley and I have faith that if we need to leave they will tell us. Right now, I think that is the best way to handle this......
So far Ric, I am staying. I have five animals. I may get a muzzle tomorrow for my big dog, and I have crates for all the other ones, and JEB told me earlier they would have shelters that allow pets, so I might take him up on that if it gets too hairy, but I live out at the end of Miracle/Surfside area, and behind the rim canal on surfside is matlacha pass and pine island sound and the gulf (as you know), so the surge scares me thats all flat wetlands, with a few mangroves, but Charlie got those pretty good. We're at wait and see tonight, boarding up tomorrow and deciding after that. Where are you in the cape? My parents are by the yacht club, on the water 1 minute from the river, and they were in Camille, so they're out of here. He's got three hotel rooms booked strategically around the state depending on where this puppy is going.
Our local forecasters were worth their weight in gold during Charley

Van Winkle and Reif, right Lisa? They were awesome support, and they saw it. That was a Holy S___ moment when they told us to not leave and protect our lives. Still gives me chills.
bwana, i'm in bonita springs, about a mile from the water. my condo though.. is third floor and faces east. unless it's big cat 4 or 5.. i'm staying
Does anyone have a link to the radar map where the hurricane stays centered and the map moves, rather than vice versa like most maps. Someone had a link up during Katrina, I think, but I can't seem to find it now. It makes it easier to see the true path of the storm.
Ric, sounds like you're gonna just watch a bunch of stuff flying by. I have one window facing east and it's about 3/5. I am inclined to stay, but I have refuge in Lake Wales at a buddy's house. Of course, the eyes of Charlie, Francis and Jean came over the top of his house last year so I am a little nervous. Good luck down there man, and we'll compare notes after this wench flies by us.
this post is taken from the accuweather.com website

While I'm at it, there is another area in the Atlantic basin that deserves some attention. A tropical wave with a weak circulation center is located east southeast of Barbados near 12N 56W at 20/15Z. The wave showed significant improvement in overall structure last night and it is moving slowly to the west northwest and into an area of lighter wind shear and a slightly more favorable upper air environment. There is a good chance that this system will become a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 36 hours.
Link

If you folks in the SWFLA/SO FLA target area would like to use the link above specifically to keep each other updated on local stuff. I have set it up.
BWANA...You got it. Do you remember them disagreeing with what the NHC was saying? That was quite a moment. Yes, that was the moment I told my children to start praying. That is when we went crazy, "Time to hunker down and protect your lives...." Your right, it still gives me chills!
Have ya'll notice that those who get to the gas stations in time say "We're getting a jump on the situation and making sure we're prepared."

Those who pull up to empty pumps say "Yeah, the crazy people are panic buying!"

LOL. Bottom line: [BSA]Be prepared[/BSA].
Oh yes, my wife and I were arguing in the driveway, her parents showed up here with a pack of crackers and a four pack of bottled water, and I was loading the truck. She came in and then came right back out and said that I needed to see something. Van Winckle and Reif were going "WE DON"T CARE WHAT THE NHC IS SAYING, WE'RE TELLING YOU THAT ITS COMING HERE." Almost seemed surreal.
Dude,

That vortex fake is not funny. Steve's reporting on his blog that he's recently lost live feeds of recon data. I sincerely hope this is just a fluke, but....

My thoughts are with the crew on the plane.
Hi all, sure enjoy Dr. Jeff's blog and all your comments. I am in SE FLA one block from beach and nervous! May we all be safe and well this time next week.
My mom is at her house in the Iona section of Ft. Myers about 300 yds from the Caloosahatchee (sp). I am trying to get her to get the heck out of dodge by tonight or tomorrow morning and go stay with friens in Palm Beach Gardens. I am in Boston so I don't know what's real or surreal - Anyone got some advice for us?
I'm with viget. NOT FUNNY!!! Just left Steve's blog.
Cary, when I find out about what they are saying on the news about the Iona area, I'll post it here http://www.wunderground.com/blog/BwanaDogSWFLA/comment.html?entrynum=0&tstamp=200510#commenttop

Watching Fort Myers local news now. But, in a press conference today, some guy from the EOC was talking about the Caloosahatchee might have 12 ft. surge depending on where it goes. They have started voluntary evacs in Cape Coral and some places in FM, but I didn't see Iona specifically. I'll let you know.
gamera, I doubt your wife is going to Mexico any time soon
I do not usually post anything against other people here, it's not my style. But as much as we all love a big storm, people in Mexico are facing a horrible disaster and people in Florida are scared. Joking to relieve tension is one thing, posting a fake vortex message that someone might not read all the way through and see your ha ha at the bottom is in poor taste. People risk their lives to get that data, my prayers are with them as they work hard to save others.
CNN reports most recent winds at flight level of 167 mph looks like she is intensifying
35. dcw
Alright, alright. Anyone know a way to get rid of it?
Am I the only one seeing a distinct northerly shift?
Bwana and Lisa - I'm here on Pine Island and remember the fear I felt when Van Winkle and Reif disagreed with the NHC. It was an Oh S--- moment! My home is 37' tall on pilings: rocked a full five feet - sloshed the wine out of my glass in our safe room. We have new impact glass doors & have boarded up all other windows. Hate the cave, love the safety!
I label that vortex blob obscene, Don't do it again!
I don't know how to contact an administrator for this dcw, but that's how you'd get rid of it.
Ok questions for the experts.
The recent frames show a MUCH more nothern track. I know this may be a wobble, but the storm seems to be following the inital(i.e a day or so ago) thread the needle track. I understood that the high over cuba/florida was blocking northern movement of the storm, but the pressure here (FT. Myers) has been steadly falling since noon (29.98 this am 29.90 now) this roughly corosponds to the time that the more NW track began. SO:
1.) is it possible that the models have missed the florida ridge moving east?

2.)if so wouldnt this drasticly change the timeline if not the overall track?


Thanks
dcw - you could report your message as obscene or spam :-) but I don't think that's necessary. there isn't anyway to edit or delete from this blog unfortunately unless the moderators do it. The fact that you realize it was in poor taste is enough for me.
42. dcw
Sheesh. I didn't expect that sort of a reaction...sorry :(
43. amd
robert, i see it too.

I think its very possible the storm just goes right over cancun, or the center of the storm does not make landfall.
What bothers me is if the eye moves northerly enough that it doesn't engage the Yucatan, and then makes a sharp right toward Key West.
RobertForsman...looks like a more northerly track to me, too.
What part of Pine Island Patty, St. James, Center or Bokeelia?
47. dcw
I see it too...I REALLY hope that's a wobble.
sorry dcw- your timing was bad with the news that the feed from the hurricane hunters currently in the air has been lost...
dcw, they're being children. Don't feel bad. I quit reading this board for days at a time because the bickering gets out of hand. I lurk most of the time.... getting involved in discussions here is like discussing theology with a toddler.

Even if you win an Internet argument, you're still retarded. :)
50. dcw
Of course, my poor joke could come true if it IS a northerly shift..."Wilma can eclipse its record 882mb...but probably won't have time". What if there isn't a landfall?
51. dcw
Yeah, I didn't know about the feed loss. My apologies.
Thanks BwanaDogSWFLA. She is about 3 miles from the causeway to Sanibel.
dcw, ::G:: apologies accepted. Guess when we're smack in the middle of the target, there is a black-out from the scheduled recon data, we all get antsy...
Let's give dcw a break. I'm sure he won't do it again.
55. dcw
They did, Robert. The matter is dropped.
Bwana, I'm in St. James - the canal across from the Waterfront Restaurant. Storm surge is weighing heavily on my mind. Going to the Fire Station tomorrow for sandbags for my husband's shop. He's a contractor & will need all his tools after this big girl goes through.
57. dcw
She seems to be moving east of north now, and definetly seems to be strengthening a bit. Eyewall contracting and subscidence (is that how you spell it?) is increasing.
FTMeyersZ - While it's certainly possible that the models have missed something, goodness knows it wouldn't be the first time, it is also true that the pressure generally drops off through the second half of the day. Check out my weather page and the barometer graph...it only shows the last two days, but you'll get the idea...

Elliston, VA Weather
59. dcw
Where does it mention the feed loss? I just went over to see it and can't find.
At this point in Rita, they were calling for landfall in Corpus Christy, so don't get too alarmed yet. Prepare? Yes. Panic? No.
Can someone post me a link to a satellite loop?
62. dcw
If you're in Cozumel, panic is about all you can do now. Travelling isn't safe anymore, and it'll just get worse..hopefully the rightward turn will keep the eyewall off them.
63. dcw
IR Loop, Robert. Last image below:

look how clear the eye has gotten- it is a cat 5 now by my visual estimate
Those in Cozumel should have prepared yesterday. I'm talking about those in Florida.
Thank you, dcw.
Bwanadog
You might want to check the limits on your pet shelter before you go.
I was disappointed that the Miami Dade shelter has limits on number of pets!
Those of us with our own mini arks would not be welcome, but hey bring your seven kids and you will be welcome with open arms.
grumble grumble
Bwana, I'm in St. James - the canal across from the Waterfront Restaurant.

Oh, the Waterfront, so you probably know Kristin and JD. Kristin and I grew up together and she's good friends with my wife. She's still out there too. Have to call her and see what she's doing. Yeah, y'all probably need to get off the island if they tell you to. When you get to Burnt Store, wave to the right. I live about a mile and a half from there across the street from the Cape Rim Canal.
I would say that she is going north, look at the northerly pull of her tail off of Florida, she is being pulled right now.
71. dcw
No problem. Cayman, the eye is still filled.
That's not a wooble...that's a trend now....
Look at this larger IR loop

Link



This is almost exactly what Katrina looked like early Sunday morning.
74. dcw
Katrina? Does anyone actually remember stuff like which day of the week she strengthened?
Link

I'll post this again. People that want to share info specifically about SWFLA/SO FLA, you can post it here. Spread the news if you'd like.
76. dcw
WHOA. Last IR frame is a ton healthier, she's getting past diurnal min.
NEWSFLASH: This thing is going to thread the needle....
New vortex... 923mb? anyone else seeing this?
79. dcw
Bwana, don't bother. I tried to provide a nice discussion area but alas, no one uses it.
80. dcw
It's been up there for a little while.
Convection isn't increasing, overall. SW opening in the eyewall.. pressure is up.. winds are down. Might it be interacting with the Yucatan?
MyamuhNative I thought about that too. We'll go to Lake Wales if we have too. Animals won't be happy, but this won't be a happy time. At least they'll be safe. They're all the babies I have. Just hope the house is here when we come back if we have to leave.
all of you that post new images and graphics.. thanks. i always appreciate it when i get new, up to date ones to look at.

i've always been fascinated with weather, since growing up in tornado alley. i watch intently any time there is sever weather. save my life a few years ago being in a nado.
We've been watching the changing situation and postponing our decision to evacuate. We have a motorhome by the house here and use it to "Get out of Dodge" when storms threaten. Primarily to protect the motorhome plus neither of us enjoys going through storms. This one has been a tough one to make decisions about. It does appear that the delay down in the Yucatan is going to change the future environment to a less favorable one. Dr. Jeff's odds appear to favor significantly a weakening trend. But, those things can suddenly blossom at the last minute. Still watching and waiting.
Bwana Dog - will look you up. J.D. & Kristen are gems. Not leaving. Been here, done that and came out OK. Better prepared this ear than last.
86. dcw
O.O You were IN a tornado? Cool.
What's this about missing recon data? Does it imply that there may be a problem onboard the plane?
Yeah, I can see that dcw, but its there if anyone wants to use it., its there. I figure, I have nothing to add weatherwise, so I should try to help when I can. Where are you located? Are you in the projected strike area?
89. dcw
Look at water vapor, that eyewall looks awfully closed to me...
No the plane is fine. See S. Gregory's blog.
Steve just posted that he just thought it was a data feed problem, not that the crew was in trouble.
92. dcw
I'm in the danger cone, yes. Inland near Tampa.
yes, IN a nado... and no, it was NOT kewl
Katrina...got her stuff together on Sat the 27th as she trekked SW then W across the SE Gulf. By Sat nite she was a strong cat 3, had done an eyewall replacement, and the eye went from 15 nm to 30-45 nm if memory serves. Overnight, she really deepened and we woke up to a Cat 5 on Sun am. She hit the MS coast just after dawn on Monday the 29th. NOLA was fine until the levees broke down overnight Monday.
That's a relief. Thank you.
on the visible satellite loop though the eye is not making the best presentation...she definitely hasn't gotten her act together since the eyewall replacement.
97. dcw
Where did he post this? I can't find it.
Patty - I am worried about Kristin and the boys staying out there. I am going to see if she wants to ride it out here. Much safer, provided the surge isn't crazy. I am going to get my wife to call her when she gets home. She called us a couple of days ago, but I don't know if my wife talked to her about this. Of course, it DID go from TS to Cat 5 in like 3 seconds.
New frames continue to show less convection near the center of the storm.

It may not become a Category 5 storm again. Hell, it may be a 3 tomorrow AM.
i'm watching weather channel on tv too. the animated line they draw from the eye direction is aiming straight north toward the channel. anyone else see that?
dcw - it's not on the main page of his blog, you have to go and look at the comments, just like you're looking at the comments on this blog now.
About the levee break: I keep hearing now in the media that the levee broke on that Monday night, but I remember hearing at 11:30 A.M. Eastern (10:30 A.M. in New Orleans) that the levee had been breached. I heard it from multiple sources on that Monday morning.
Link

This really shows the north motion and you look close maybe even some east to it.
yeah, had to explain to squeak who thought my comment was funny that I'm more into human factor than science (when it comes to cost) as I know these damned planes and equip are old and under-funded... Dr. Jeff lived thru the almost-loss of the plane during a Hugo flight.
I always have the crews in my thoughts and prayers, guess that provided a laugh... ::sigh::
Guess I'll find something else to do this evening.
I just reviewed several satalite loops and I see nothing but NORTH with perhaps a little Northwest mixed in for the last 6 frames. It looks like it will just barely clip the coast and perhaps only the left side of the eyewall will make landfall......anyone else see that?
i see it
Weather Channel is saying Cat 1 when it hits South Florida. I am getting my lawn chair and my trident and getting on the roof!
wx channel said it will take a sharp west turn. Stall then proceed ene. I don't see that happening!!!! Looks north north east right now.... and if that continues....
I agree with those people on the NORTH movement. I dont know much, but I trust my eyes, my eyes say a direct land fall on Cozumel, which you can clearly see is NOT predicted by any of those models posted on Dr.J's model picture...

What is the impact of that? Less weakening? Faster tracking into Florida?
what i've seen in my short less than two years here is that hurricanes generally miss forcasted direction to the RIGHT. so, my concern... and why i'm watching intently right now.. is if this thing passes to the right.. it'll hit the channel and florida will get a higher level 'cane
111. a22
i live in western Browrd county,if the Willam follows the same path as the National hurricane Center ho strong will the sustained winds be?
a22 i'm guessing around 70 - 75 mph.. that is if wilma his the west coast as a cat 2
113. wpbwx
Hello all! I think it looks like it is going North too
Link
Click on Trop Fcst Pts. You will see it actually looks like the NHC has it right on!
The last few sat images does show it moving north. It also seems that the ring of intense thunderstorms surrounding eye is becoming better defined and contracting.
just saw a preview on cbs for a movie mini-series...Category 7, the end of the world. Lol. Will be aired in Nov.
The 5pm NHC discussion says the following:

WILMA HAS TURNED NORTHWESTWARD...310/5...BUT THIS IS NOT NECESSARILY
THE BEGINNINGS OF RECURVATURE. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE
WESTERLIES...THE OLD LOW FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA...WILL MOVE PAST THE
LONGITUDE OF THE HURRICANE BY TOMORROW MORNING...AND THE TRACK
MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT BEND BACK TO THE LEFT AS A LITTLE RIDGING
BUILDS IN BEHIND IT.

So perhaps this is what they are talking about......however, if the speed keeps up, Wilma will be well into the Yucitan Channel and a bend back to the left might not bring it over land......and that water is toasty warm in the channel. These things really do have a mind of their own.
118. wpbwx
Maybe they will put the movie on this weekend to get ratings.
Bwanna, you know as well as I - Pine Islanders are very resourceful and very reluctant to leave for fear that we can't come home. That fact alone, generally dictates our decision to stay. We prepare for the worst, hope for the best. Let go, let God! It's the best we can do. I appreciate the information here as it helps me make informed decisions concerning our fuuture. Thanks to all bloggers!
120. a22
FSUstormnut when do you think broward county will go under a warning, and do you think they will evacuate the broward coastline?
lots of people here would probably miss it...due to no power.
I am not an expert! Im only guessing, but...
No. I don't think they will evacuate the coast. This storm is still to far away to say how strong it will be when it hits. At this point in time.. It may be a min. cat one/ strong tropical storm as it moves over palm beach county. If it misses the Yucitan it could be a LOT stronger.
she looks as strong as ever now. Full circle of red around her center. Shes a cat 5 by my estimates.
124. wpbwx
Won't cuba slow it down if it misses Mexico?
125. SEFL
"FSUstormnut when do you think broward county will go under a warning, and do you think they will evacuate the broward coastline?"

The principle reason to evacuate a coastline is storm surge. That will not be a problem on the east coast. Currently the wind predictions should not result in any evacuation orders on the east coast.
when is he next recon and why don't they fly two planes in major storms?
I'm asking for your opinions here...any insights would be much appreciated. We live about 15 miles inland from the Gulf in Naples in an area called Golden Gate Estates. He thinks we are safe out here and I disagree. Does being inland offer any protection? Thanks for any help -
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-bd-loop.html

Check out that link. it looks as if its going to the north now and may thread the needle through cuba and the yucatan. To see the projected path, click on the
Trop Frcst Pts at the top. it appears as though its now headed east of that prediction. Anyone else see? What you guys and gals think?
Golden Gate what is your elevation and what type of structure do you live in - If you are above 25 feet and in a sturdy home you should be able to ride out a cat 1 or 2 if it is a 3 or higher you might want to leave.
130. SEFL
"I'm asking for your opinions here...any insights would be much appreciated. We live about 15 miles inland from the Gulf in Naples in an area called Golden Gate Estates. He thinks we are safe out here and I disagree. Does being inland offer any protection? Thanks for any help -"

Go to the previous Jef Masters blog and click on "read full text" there is a storm surge map there for Naples/Marco Island
Oops - he, meaning my husband
Bwanna, you know as well as I - Pine Islanders are very resourceful and very reluctant to leave for fear that we can't come home. That fact alone, generally dictates our decision to stay. We prepare for the worst, hope for the best. Let go, let God! It's the best we can do. I appreciate the information here as it helps me make informed decisions concerning our fuuture. Thanks to all bloggers!

Yes you are stubborn buggers out there. Be safe, and get off that island if it's too bad. We didn't know with Charlie, and hopefully we'll be alright with Wilma. I just get freaked out after last year. Have been since June 1. Keep in touch when we get back to normal, Patty. Maybe we can all get together and have a drink and a laugh about this thing. I hope so.
133. SEFL
"Check out that link. it looks as if its going to the north now and may thread the needle through cuba and the yucatan"

If you read the NHC 5 pm discussion, they acknowledge the north movement and say it is temporary. trying to discern a trend by looking at a few frames of a loop is very difficult
CaymanRay - Thanks for answering. I don't know what our elevation is - the house is built up so it's about 4 - 5 feet higher than the yard. The house is sturdy - it was built late '90's so is up to code - no hurricane shutters though, so we put up plywood today.
135. dcw
"why don't they fly two planes in major storms?"

Because it costs boucoup amounts of money.
136. dcw
New recon in, weaker:

Vortex Data Message
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT12 KNHC 202331Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/2305Z
B. 18 DEG 57 MIN N
85 DEG 45 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2447 MA
D. 90
E. 315 DEG 20 NM
F. 29 DEG 130 KT
G. 295 DEG 20 NM
H. 923 MB
I. 11 C/ 3064 M
J. 22 C/ 3062 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. OPEN SOUTH
M. C 40
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 1124A WILMA OB 06
MAX FL WIND 128 KT N QUAD 2312Z
SFC WIND FROM DROPSONDE, GOOD RADAR PRESENTATION



Robbert Forsman,
A levvee may have been breached on Monday...but the city did not beginning filling with water until overnight Monday into Tuesday morning.
138. wpbwx
I don't know about you but I am hurricaned out. This waiting and wondering is killing me.
Has anybody noticed that the high cirrus clouds, coming out of Wilma to west has come to a complete stop from moving any more to the west. Meanwhile the cirrus clouds have been moving North and expanding all day. This would suggest a northward movement and eventually northeastward. Yesterday they had moved north and stopped just south of central Florida, from east to west. At that time Wilma was moving westerly direction. Any comments?
Thanks SEFL, will check out that surge map
141. dcw
Hmm...examining the recon, my guess is that she's still solidifying her eyewall. Notice the much higher temp differential and levelled off pressure.
142. dcw
8:00 in:

...Extremely dangerous Wilma moving slowly northwestward toward
Cozumel and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect from San Felipe to Chetumal on
the Yucatan Peninsula...including Cozumel and the nearby islands. A
Hurricane Warning is also in effect for Swan Island.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect from
west of San Felipe to celestun.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Belize from the
border with Mexico southward to Belize City.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the provinces of la
Habana...Ciudad de la Habana...Pinar del Rio...and the Isle of
Youth. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect in Cuba for the
provinces of Matanzas westward through Pinar del Rio...and for the
Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Honduras from the
Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Cabo camaron.

All interests in the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should
closely monitor the progress of extremely dangerous Hurricane Wilma.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 7 PM CDT...0000z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located near
latitude 19.1 north... longitude 85.9 west or about 120 miles...
195 km... southeast of Cozumel Mexico.

Wilma is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph... 8 km/hr... and
this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
On the forecast track...the center of Wilma will be very near the
coastline of the Yucatan by midday tomorrow. However...Wilma has a
large circulation and hurricane conditions will be felt well before
the arrival of the center.

Reports from a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds remain near 150 mph...240 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Wilma is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...
and Wilma could regain category five strength as it approaches the
Yucatan tonight.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 200 miles...325 km. NOAA buoy 42056 recently reported sustained
winds of 69 mph... 111 km/hr...with a gust to 81 mph... 130 km/hr.

The minimum central pressure reported by the NOAA aircraft was
923 mb...27.26 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 7-11 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the north of where the center makes landfall on
the Yucatan Peninsula.

Wilma is expected to produce 10 to 20 inches of rain through
Saturday across portions of western Cuba and the Yucatan
Peninsula...with isolated amounts of 40 inches possible...
particularly over higher terrain in western Cuba.

Additional rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches...with isolated
amounts of 8 inches...are possible across the Cayman Islands...Swan
Island...and portions of Honduras through Friday.

Repeating the 7 PM CDT position...19.1 N... 85.9 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 5 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...150 mph. Minimum central pressure... 923 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 10 PM CDT.

Forecaster Beven


$$

dcw - i know it is very expensive but Katrina cost $200 Billion and just to evacuate a city costs millions even at $100,000 hr which is more than it probably costs the benifits vastly outweigh the costs. The problem is that govt can't think like a business and make a valid determination of when it would be appropriate to make 24 measurements of a storm.

We will never know just how low wilma's preasure got because of the long lags between recon's- and if there were two gulfstreams ($50 mm) each the models would be much more accurate I bet after this year NOAA finally gets the funding required to do its job right...
Could someone provide a link to Steve's blog? Thanks.
Sorry if this is a stupid question, but in general, is it accurate to believe that being inland offers protection? If that were the case, then what about Orlando and the damage suffered there?
ricstevenson, i was in a tornado once too--and even tho i was really young, i thought the world was coming to an end! have been really interested in weather since tho...
147. dcw
Orlando took a lot less damage than Punta Gorda. I was under Charley's eyewall as he passed over with 100mph winds and saw the damage afterward, and it wasn't really that bad there.
"dcw - i know it is very expensive but Katrina cost $200 Billion and just to evacuate a city costs millions even at $100,000 hr which is more than it probably costs the benifits vastly outweigh the costs. The problem is that govt can't think like a business and make a valid determination of when it would be appropriate to make 24 measurements of a storm."

To comment on this, we are only human and to put it frank we have never dealt with storms of this size, and this frequency of evacuations. Over the next couple of years as these storms become more of a household item, the whole process of dealing with a hurricane from start to finish will get much more smooth. Unless we add a cat 6 to the scale, muahahaha, j/k.
I live just NE of Orlando, and i think we were lucky to only have the damage we did. I thank God for that. But this monster really scares me because of the uncertain path.
Bwanna Dog - we will indeed toast! Look forward to meeting you - right now, hubby has worked hard and says "feed me", which I must do! I'll be back later! Best of Luck to All!
Golden Gate- being inland offers protection from the storn surge which is typically the most dangerous and deadly effect of a hurricane- Only cat 4&5 surges exceed 25 ft and they sometimes can come inland 5-10 miles. Unless you are on an island or less than 25 ft above MSL is surge generally a factor. The next issue is wind speed. Hurricanes rapidly lose wind speed while overland due to friction however 15 miles is not far enough to expect more than at most a 10 mph decline over what is felt right on the coast. A cat 1 or two storm generally does limited structural damage but large trees can fall on houses and if I had a yard full of trees that would be a factor in my decsion. Also being in a hurricane is frightening and if you can get to a safer place that is also worth something... Hope this helps
Caymanray - thanks for that response. It was exactly what I was looking for!
GoldenGate, like some said in previous posts, the main protection is from tidal surge flodding. Then maybe the drop of 1 or 2 categories could be an added benefit.

This is not always true, like in Orlando, for a fast moving storm, the drop could not be significant, and still get
total damaged homes like some got from Charley. Also while inland you have to worry about possible tornado formation with greater damage, or have stormwater inside the house from localized flooding due to watershed drainage saturation.

Also even at the coast, if you are in the opposite side of the landfall coast, then you are doing better as well.

So, only safe bet is not being in path at all...;)
where did everyone go??
Cay, I was just thinking the same thing.
Now where did you go? LOL
Can anyone explain why the DRAMATIC change in intensity if it were to have a minimal interaction with land... I mean, I know hurricanes need the water, but I dont see a 6-8hr land traversing, REALLY being that destructive to the intensity of the storm, especially if it is on relatively flat land?

I could see if it HIT where the models showed, then of course it would be a weaker storm, but what about a "glancing" blow?
is anyone tired of the swfl landfall catagory strength projection being different every twelve hours for four days?
Hydrocvl, thanks for your response, too. It's agonizing trying to figure out what to do. Hubbie is determined to ride it out...even if it was a CAT 4....me, I'm ready to bolt once it's a CAT 3. If this thing heads our way at 3 or greater, I'm afraid WWIII will erupt in this household!
i mean, aren't we voluntarily riding a roller coaster here?
I know I am, I just wish it would make up OUR minds. So we know what to do.
Ric,

I am extremely annoyed, because even though I am in West Palm Beach, the intensity and location of THAT will determine what I am going to get...very annoyed with the "wishy washy" back and forth.

I say, if the chance of occurrence is LESS than statiscially significant, don't tell me about it.
You first I hope that this hurricane would just disipate This waiting game for a hurricane to hit SW Florida has been taking its toll on my nerves. The longer we wait the hope is that it will go somewhere else. But if we destined to be hit then lets get it over with and the we can recover and get on with our lives.
Just viewed the IR floater. Looks like the eye is mush better defined and sysmetrical. Would not be suprised to see the 11PM advisory forWilma wind speed increase.
People, this is just another hurricane. We have been through a lot down here in Florida and we will go through a lot more. The best thing to do is always be prepared. When it looks like it is going to land, make final preparations and ride it out or leave depending on your circumstances. Worrying doesn't make it less or more. It justs makes you unhappy. Nature is powerful, but we can be smarter.
BigJohnTheHustler at 8:46 PM EDT on October 20, 2005.
Can anyone explain why the DRAMATIC change in intensity if it were to have a minimal interaction with land... I mean, I know hurricanes need the water, but I dont see a 6-8hr land traversing, REALLY being that destructive to the intensity of the storm, especially if it is on relatively flat land?


Though the official *poitioning* forecast shows otherwise, the strength estimate may have something to do with them not being sure how much time Wilma will spend over land. Current estimates (even at 24 hours out!) range at 0 (passing through the yucatan channel) to 48 hours (stalling over the peninsula). Im not an expert by any means... im a poli sci student... but thats my guess ;p
Looking at the front that is planning to pick up Wilma, it may start to modify causing Wilma to intensify at least to a cat 3. Wilma will move along or in front of it and the front will wash out slowing the forward speed of Wilma and allowing her to strenghten. What are you thoughts?
It looks to me of the "phenomena" of the so called "Forecast" models chasing the storm is what is happening here... They forecast one thing, it doesn't happen and they quickly readjust and forecast again...
oh, and that word was supposed to be positioning
I have been following the motion of the center of Wilma's eye on the Cancun radar for the past 3 hours.

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/iwxpage/adc/popup/cancun_radar.jpg

Over this time period, I estimate that the centre has been moving at the rate of only about 3 statute miles per hour (despite NHC reporting 5) and heading in a direction exactly towards Cancun.
Big john - the reason even a relatively short interaction with land can have a material and long lasting impact on the core of circulation. Once a huricanes core is disrupted it can take days to reform. In this case if Wilma sits near of over the Yucatan for several hours and the core of circulation is disrupted and the eye opens it likely will never recover its strength and may not even be a hurricane when it gets to Florida. However if Wilma passes the Yucatan with it's eye intact then it will likely maintatin considerable (cat 3 or higher) strength all the way to the florida peninsula


172. dcw
Big burst of convection.
Goldengate, I know that feeling after being in the middle of two Florida hurricanes last year.

I think the key is to be prepared to stay, as well as prepared with all valuables at safe place, to evacuate. Also not to be in panic but to be informed.

Nobody should stay in direct path of any above category 2, storm, even if safe from flooding.

Some variables to help you decide that is better to leave:

a) slow moving storms. They can pound for hours in manner that can breakdown roof structures for other reasons than just plain wind.

b)look at the possible tornado conditions. Normally this information is available before landfall.

c)If area will get hit above category 2, check if electric power grid will be out for days. The generators are great, but you could be ready to kill a neighbor running those things for a week at 2:00 in the morning.

d)type of structure: for wooden homes with two stories, or roofs over 15 years old, better stay away.
So basically, what you are saying is that I better call up MISS CLEO because no one but her knows the truth with any conviction about how strong? how soon? how fast?

I mean I get it that its "foreguessing". But I kinda like the NHC guys because they at least say "The models say this, but I think the models are full of it, and I think its slower, so I am saying slower. At least they buy their own BS...
i predict this storm will not lose any strength when it makes landfall. Due to global warming it will intensify over the Ucitan when it stalls and then head to Florida.
Big john it sounds like you would like Joe Bastardi from Accuweather - he isn't always right but he always has conviction in his opinion.

It is my sad duty to inform you all that the latest set of model runs do in fact have Wilma passing GO and collecting $200. In unrelated news, my Monopoly board keeps spinning counterclockwise...
Has Joey B ever been right? LOL

I don't know you can't listen to your local guys anymore because they are all "ITS COMING HERE ITS COMING HERE, STAY TUNED ITS COMING HERE"

But you can't listen to the National guys, because they are all like well there is a .00002% Chance it may dog leg back to the left, but then again there is a .0007% chance it may cause an earthquake in Zimbabwe... so they are no good. I kinda like you all, you guys have your opinions and type what you see...no REAL biases... Keep me informed!
i think those of us concerned about our local areas.. need only be concerned when we know better what IS going to happen in our local area. that doesn't mean i don't care about yucatan, iraq, indonesia, etc. if i sat and watched and worried about human lives everywhere in the world, i'd never sleep, eat or smile.

i've spent the last few evenings reading what people write and put myself into the emotion and intensity of the possible severity of what might happen... maybe... in more than a few days time.

if i lived that way, worried about what was going to happen the days after the day after tomorrow... i wouldn't get anything done about today.

prayers for lives in mexico, iraq, indonesia, russia, baltimore tunnels and new york subways. for me, i gotta get some sleep... go to work tomorrow and deal with the weekend when it comes.

i told my ex that drama-trauma is not a way to live and she agreed... regarding her peers and people that were affecting her daily moments/decisons.. nothing but drama.

hey, when tornados rip through kansas city, i care very much for my extended family and friends back there. but, i don't email them and call them when weather alerts go out.

dada is in arizona, retired, and said they are flooding there lately. that means desert growth... that will dry up and be fuel for fires later. i can't freak about it.

let's do this... take a breath, get supplies and emotional/spiritual strength for what we may need for ourselves and those we touch.. in our vicinity.

more over, let's get some sleep, care for the ppl of cozumel, go to work tomorrow and get ready for landfall in florida if that happens.

until then, our troops are getting blown up in iraq. if i have to sleep tonight and log off here and try not to feel guilty because i'm not "caring" or contributing about wilma... weel, then i shouldn't sleep until iraq is liberated and our boys are home.

for me, now.. good night to all and i'll say my nightly prayer for live everywhere... whether nature induced, political or by terrorism

peace
Very well said RIC, I agree completely. That was very heart felt and I agree 100%. Lets not worry til we have to, cant live our lives on the WHAT IF'S. Thank You
i i hav updated my blog
thanks canejunky. i "care".. but i can't live in the drama. i got bills to pay, a possible hurricane to prepare for and a weekend to look forward to. mostly, i have a life to LIVE... hopefully not spending it asking when the world is gonna get crazy. it already is! i've been through so many things already in my life i'm told to write a book. many ask me to, but where do you start? i'm quiet about it, almost to the point of "i can't say anything".

for now i feel that my 2 cents is to me, worth a million. get off the computer, talk to those you love and share you plans, get your supplies and wait, watch and be careful.

in the meantime... remember that saving a life may not mean anything to you and the person you save.. but who cares? it will mean something to you and that person forever!

go buy just one bit more food, a flashlight, an extra package of batteries for someone else.

if you can't buy something... then smile alot, make someone feel good, tell them it's "ok" and that we'll all be ok. no matter what.

peace, again
Eyewall has expanded a big 30-40 miles per the IRC emergency site.
GoldenGate...I live in the Orange Tree area, about 15 miles NE of you, but my church is in Golden Gate (I'm a pastor). Since Wed. around noon, I've been advising my people that, if it is economically feasable, they should head for Atlanta or points farther north - particularly if there are small children or elderly people involved. It just seems prudent. I'm concerned that I-75 north will be jammed by Friday evening or so. To me, that means if you stay here until then, you're probably committing yourself to riding the storm out.

Here are three more things to think about:

1. I have been told by a member of the Sheriff's Dept. here that a 6' storm surge or greater could shoot water into Golden Gate.

2. When Charley came through, the weather station out here at Palmetto Ridge High School clocked 98 mph gusts. I lost one shingle off of my 1993 home, though it sounded like there was a stampede on my roof for quite a while. A few other homes lost shingles, took lanai damage, maybe lost a tree or two - but that was it.

3. Collier County is now calling for a mandatory evacuation of everyone south and east of U.S. 41. That's just a few miles from you.

I hope this info helps you in some way.

BTW, this is my first time here, and I think this is a terrific blog. The people are great.
I've been mocked by others in SW Fla today for even considering my options...staying vs. evacuating, putting up plywood, etc. It has made me feel as if I should be embarrassed for even worrying about it. It's bizarre - it's seems as if no one is taking this seriously...except of course the people here.
All I can say is: AMEN
freakster...LOL
Here in Afghanistan, our prayers are with all of you all in harms way. My grandpa lives on Big Pine Key, and although I don't know where that is, I know he picked a great time to go visit family back in KS.
Good night Ric. True, however, like in war, or peace, let's not forget to thank the dedicated people working while we sleep, like the pilots flying the storms, personnel tracking the equipment, so we can have the hurricane information in the morning.

Also the community here, getting together, some to learn, some offering to share their knowledge, so we can have an idea what to do, and some true weather aficionados.

Thanks to the ones that work at this Wunder Blog for a great source of information.
Link

Some good information here, especially if you live in Indian river county.
KANSAS, Our PRAYERS are with all of you over the big pond. I spent time in Saudi for Desert Storm/Sheild, I know it is hard, but God be with you and your fellow soldiers.
GoldenGate, there will always be those
who complain about evacuating "for
no reason" when a hurricane goes the
other way, but if you can get out of
harms way, even if you are not perfectly
sure Wilma is going to hit where you are,
then by all means, go. Many, many people
died because the could not or would not
evacuate the Gulf Coast ahead of Katrina.
People say It will just be another Houston
if we leave, but what if Rita HAD hit Houston?
It is not panic to evacuate early, it is prudent
(especially if you have the means) People have
to make their own decisions, but I am for leaving
if you can.
Hey Pastor...thanks for your post. I agree with you - hubby is very reluctant to leave. We have a couple of options that are pretty decent regarding evacuation. I have a friend who has offered us her cottage on the other coast - but it's right on the beach...not sure that's safe either. I have a family member that has offered us their place in St. Simons Island Georgia - it's like a resort there...it could be like a vacation, and a rather lavish one at that. But Hubby does not want to go. We had damage here from hurricane Charley too - we lost a couple of solar panels off of the roof. I don't get why he will not leave!
GoldenGate...You have to do what's safe for you and your family. No one is in a position to pass judgment on that. (Tell 'em a pastor said so.)

:)

I hear you, NOLA. And thanks for the prayers for us, Soldier - all our prayers are also with you, and our respect and admiration for your service.
So Pastor, my neighbor....are you going to evacuate? Do you have a standard-bearer....say, "if it's Cat 3 and moving slow, I'm leaving" or something to that effect? I'm guessing you're going to play it by ear...watch the forecasts like me...and decide when we have more info, right?
I must agree with the idea that if you can, you should leave. The fall colors should be out in the North East this time of year, and hey, the Grand Canyon is a cool hole in the ground all year round!
GoldenGate...I'm staying put for two main reasons:

1. I want to be close to any of my people who need me during/after the storm.

2. I am only a block from the hurricane shelter at Palmetto Ridge.

Actually, the first reason alone is enough to keep me here. Otherwise, I would probably go.
199. code1
This is for all who were not on today. Several have since done so, as they were not aware. Please do so as well.

Posted By: code1 at 1:14 PM CDT on October 20, 2005.
TO ALL WU BLOGGERS:

I just sent in my $5 to WU. (For all who have already done so, disregard post.) I am sure you agree that we have all been done a great service, especially the last several months, by the WU team. I think the least we can do is ante up the $5. They did not have to set this forum up for us and we have all benefited from the knowledge and fellowship of many. Before posts are written back about affordability....if you have a computer and internet access, you can afford $5. Also, there is at least five more (possibly/probably more with this crazy year) weeks of tropical weather, plus winter coming on for those of you up north. This comes out to $1 week just for the next 5 weeks, not including the past nor future. Tell me where else you can find this value. No, I am not paid by WU, just think it is the right thing for all of us to do. I know it is the best 5 bucks I have spent! It helps WU, which in turn, helps all of us. Sorry for off topic and interruption of Wilma, just felt it needed to be said. ANTE UP EVERYONE!
KansasSoldier, our prayers are with all of you brother.

Goldengate, agree what the pastor said. Sometimes people se that it is easier to stay, but only applies when nothing happened.

Sometimes it is a false sense of security to do what others are doing as well. It is not stupid to be prepared, particularly if you are in the cone of probable hurricane path. The evacuation plan should be ready if needed, if the track moves very close to you, any minor deviations and you are in trouble when winds are so high that you can't leave even if you want, or if need any medical emergency attention.

The probability of maximum damage for the top winds is very small, when compared to the area that the hurricane hits. If you watch every single news, when total destruction around, everyone that stayed said....next time I will leave.

It is like small probability of winning the lottery, still nobody mocks at the winning ticket..lol.
La Bajada Nexrad loop--the eye is just starting to be visible. link
Worst disaster in Mexican history? Not so sure about that.

Mexico has been hit three times before by Category 5 hurricanes (Janet-1955, Anita-1977, Gilbert-1988) on the Atlantic side, and probably a few times on the Pacific side as well...
Golden Gate - Preparation for a hurricane is NEVER silly, stupid, or improvident! I evacuated League City, Tx, just off Galveston Bay, on Wednesday before Rita. I had my 87 year old mother & my cat in tow, and none of us had any idea what awaited! But, I had made reservations at what I came to call Camp La Quinta in Nacogdoches on the SATURDAY before, and I did it on the basis of the info that was beginning to show up on this site.

What should have been a 3 hour trip took 14 hours. Luckily, we had no real problems, as we found gas early, and I had taken the car in for a pre-evacuation tune-up and going over. We had food, water, kitty litter, medications, etc. w/us - and enough clothes to keep us through the winter. We had a battery powered tv, radios, and a car cell phone charger. I had been to the bank and got all the important papers from the safe deposit box. We had moved the real valuables/sentimental items we couldn't take with us to a concrete block storage place outside the Category 5 flood plain. Even though we live in apartments, we had boarded up some windows, and made a "safe room" for family furniture, etc.

After 5 days in Nacogdoches, we drove back home in 3 hours.
Nothing had been touched - there had been some wind (65-70 mph) but little rain and no surge at all, as we were on the "dry" side of the storm. But, as we drove home on hwy 146, which comes out less than 2 miles from our homes, there were blue tarps on the roofs, tin roofs peeled back, leaves stripped from the north side of trees and innumerable trees down. It was absolutely, abundantly clear that if Rita had stayed 60 miles west, we would have been toast.

Evacuation is a pain. Evacuation from a major metropolitan area is a nightmare. Evacuation costs money, loses time at work, and sometimes is just flat scary - especially when you have that 87 year old and a cat giving you "the eye"!

DON'T take chances. Unless you are absolutely certain that you are in the clear, my advice (more to your hubbie than to you, perhaps!) is: GO. If nothing else, you can take part in the conversations afterwards - for days in Houston, every conversation could be boiled down to: where did you go? how long did it take? when did you come home? how long did it take? LOL!

Good luck!
The Weather Channel said the recent
movement to the north was caused by
the trof that has now passed, no more
northward movement until another set
of trofs moves in. That means it will
just sit on or near the Yucatan for 3
days! My heart is aching for the people
that are there. It sounds like it will be
catastrophic - I guess that is what Dr.
Jeff already said.
The latest floater shows a course that would have the eye just graze the tip of Yucatan. If it hooks any more to the right, the eye will not come ashore there. Though this news may not be entirely welcome in Florida, let us hope that this means that the colossal Mexican catastrophe feared by Dr. Masters will not come to pass.
Exactly right, HyrdoCVL. And Pastor...I see your point - you'll be needed in the event of catastrophe. I still don't know if I'll be leaving....if it were only up to me, I'd have been out hours ago. But I won't go without DH. I'll do a big sales job on him tonight though - we have two large dogs and we are very lucky that we have a choice of two very nice places to go to!
I noticed that the strike probabilities for points south of Tampa seem to have dropped a point or two. Even Key West dropped by a point in the last column. Is it because the percentages have gone so high for Cozumel and surrounding areas? If so I would expect the probabilities to climb again for FL soon.

The 11:00 report will along soon. Can hardly wait.
ricstevensonYes, I'm extremely tired of this waiting and shifting and all. I'm in Punta Gorda, and after what happened last year I won't believe any of it until it's here or passed. We also have business partners who were in Slidell, LA... and we're about done with these hurricanes!!!
Shoreacres - what a great post. So great in fact, that it is being printed now and is part of the sales pitch. Thanks.
From ricstevenson: if you can't buy something... then smile alot, make someone feel good, tell them it's "ok" and that we'll all be ok. no matter what.

peace, again


Well said......being okay is all you got - that and prayer
Golden Gate, I'm in Naples Off Airport RD There's no 25ft elevation anywhere in Naples. Did you need to get flood ins for your mortgage? If so your in a flood plane. We're going to see what's happening tomorrow before we decide to bug out. Already boarded up though.
11:00 says 19.3, 86.0, NW at 6 and pressure is dropping. Probably gonna be a cat 5 by tomorrow morning again. Doesn't look like she is slowing down at all. I am wondering if she will make to say 23.0 or 23.5 before the big turn.
213. dcw
11PM in, still 150.

Probably higher, but they're waitin on Recon
Hey Nightblooming Neighbor. We did not have to get flood insurance. Thanks for the input. Best wishes for your safety through this.
Thanks Golden Gate You too I just want this to be over. At least we're prepared. I may start drinking though!!
That is an impressive pic Hecker. She is a monster.
The 11 pm NHC Advisory:

HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR WILMA MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD
COZUMEL AND BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BELIZE FROM THE
BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED
THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR SWAN ISLAND AND THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES... 165 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR...AND A
SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF WILMA WILL BE VERY NEAR COZUMEL AND THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY MIDDAY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...WILMA HAS A
LARGE CIRCULATION AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT WELL BEFORE
THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT WILMA IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND THE HURRICANE COULD REGAIN CATEGORY
FIVE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM. NOAA BUOY 42056 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 77 MPH... 124 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 87 MPH... 140 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 923 MB...27.26 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE...
PARTICULARLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN CUBA. OUTER RAINBANDS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY
THE KEYS...WITH SOME 1 TO 3 INCH RAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY.

NOAA BUOY 42003 IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INDICATES THAT LARGE
SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...19.3 N... 86.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 923 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN
Nightbloom - just don't be hungover tomorrow. Evacuation would be considerably less fun with a hangover. I'm heading off to get a good night's rest...and will first say a prayer for everyone in the path of the storm. Thanks to everyone here for the great advice. I'm a first-time poster here and wasn't even sure I'd get a response.
Well Goodnight all, gonna go get some sleep. GOD SPEED TO ALL.
Sleep well Golden Gate. I'm a newbie here also. But also a night owl so I'll be lurking for awhile yet.
Goodnight GoldenGate. I am a first timer too. I have learned alot tonight too. My Prayers also.
Hurricane Wilma Discussion Number 23

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on October 20, 2005


reports from a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft before 00z indicated
that the central pressure of Wilma had risen to 923 mb...and the
maximum 700 mb flight-level winds had decreased to 130-140 kt.
Since then...satellite imagery shows an improved eye presentation
and cooling cloud tops around the center..although not enough to
justify an increase in intensity. Based on this...the initial
intensity remains 130 kt. The next aircraft will investigate Wilma
around 05z.

Wilma has turned more to the right during the past few hr...with the
initial motion now 325/5. The hurricane is moving into a col area
between mid-level ridges to the east and west...while the stronger
westerlies remain north of 26n according to data from the NOAA g4
jet. This is a good formula for slow motion...and all models agree
on this for the next 24-48 hr. However...the dynamical models
steer Wilma northwestward into the Yucatan Peninsula during the
next 12-24 hr...a motion that is not supported by the current right
turn or the jet data. Therefore...the forecast track will be well
to the right of the model guidance...with the center forecast to
pass over the extreme northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula.
This track also requires an earlier recurvature into the westerlies
than any of the guidance and a faster progress toward the northeast
and the Florida Peninsula. The new forecast track is similar to
the previous forecast...except somewhat slower through 96 hr.
Given the radical departure from the model guidance...this is a low
confidence forecast.

The intensity forecast is very problematic. First...the intensity
forecast calls for weakening due to passage over the Yucatan
Peninsula. If Wilma moves as far inland as the models forecast...
it will weaken considerably and likely be much weaker than forecast
along the rest of the track. On the other hand...if the eye moves
east of the track the hurricane will likely stay stronger than
forecast...at least for the first 36-48 hr. Second...all available
data shows that the outflow has decreased to the west as weak
westerly flow impinges on Wilma. This will likely not prevent the
intensification forecast during the next 24 hr...although it may be
a precursor to the shear forecast to affect the hurricane over the
Gulf of Mexico. This shear should cause Wilma to weaken regardless
of how strong it is after passing Yucatan. Third...water vapor
imagery continues to show very dry mid/upper-level air covering the
Gulf of Mexico. As Wilma interacts with the westerlies...this air
should begin to entrain into the hurricane...and indeed there has
been some erosion of the western side of the cloud pattern during
the past 6 hr. Finally...Wilma should pass over the warm loop
current followed by cooler waters near the Florida Peninsula. The
latter should aid the shear-induced weakening. Given the
uncertainties...the intensity forecast will change little from the
previous advisory. It should be noted that if Wilma misses Yucatan
there is a chance that in spite of all the negative factors it
could be a major hurricane at landfall in Florida.

NOAA buoy 42003 in the eastern Gulf of Mexico reports that large
swells generated by Wilma are propagating toward portions of the
northern Gulf Coast...and could reach the coast on Friday.


Forecaster Beven
this storm continues to defy the models... she has not yet slowed, she is spiking northwards and may yet "thread the needle" by avoiding landfall in Yucatan - if so, look out FLA
GREETINGS EVERYONE FIRST TIME POSTER LONG TIME READER. I JUST THOUGHT I'D MENTION THAT THE LOCAL WEATHER REPORT HERE IN MIAMI HAS ACKNOWLEDGED THE MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND SAID THAT THE EYE MIGHT NOT MAKE LANDFALL AT ALL BUT STAY IN THE CHANNEL, BAD NEWS FOR US AS FAR AS STRENGTH GOES BUT I'M GLAD THEY MENTIONED IT BECAUSE I NOTICED IT MYSELF EARLIER THIS EVENING, ANY IDEA WHY THE NHC HASN'T SAID ANYTHING ABOUT THIS MOTION YET?
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2005_TWENTY-FOUR/webManager/basicJavaDisplay.html This is the site where the hurricane is stationary and the land masses move.
Would this northward motion effect the arrival time to FL?
Quite possible Snowboy. I am also think it possible that she my not make the expected turn to the NE at around 22.0 N and maybe get a bit further north to say 23.0 or maybe even 24.0 and possibly bring her closer to central FL. The stronger westerly flowis seemingly north of 26.00 actually from what I can tell in the discussion.
PERSONALLY I'M FINALIZING PREP TOMORROW BECAUSE SO FAR THE ONLY THING FOR SURE SEEMS TO BE A SOUTH FLORIDA HIT AND IF SHE DOESN'T STALL OR INTERACT AS MUCH WITH THE YUCATAN AS EXPECTED IT COULD POSSIBLY BE AN EARLIER/STRONGER SYSTEM THAN ANTICIPATED NOW, SINCE EVEYONE SEEMS TO HAVE THEIR PERSONAL PREDICTIONS I WOULD VENTURE TO SAY THAT THIS STORM WILL BASICALLY REVERSE THE PATH OF KATRINA WITH LANDFALL NEAR THE POINT AND EXITING NEAR HOLLYWOOD
It might affect the arrival time but more likely where it strikes FL if at all. The sooner it makes that dreaded turn to the NE I think the less likely it is it will hit FL. I am concerned that the turn to the NE will be later then sooner and the storm looks like it might stay over water near the Yucatan.
231. dcw
Look at the eye...def clearing out.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/MIAMIWEATHERWATCHER/show.html

I STARTED THIS BLOG FOR EVERYONE OVER HERE ON THE EAST COAST IN MIAMI AREA TO TALK ABOUT WHAT WE MIGHT EXPERIENCE HERE
I sure hope the NHC is ready to issue quick reports when this thing takes off like a rocket toward us. It will take no time at all to get here and it won't be here long when it arrives.
I AGREE I THINK WE'LL BE BACK TO A CAT 2 OR 3 SUN NIGHT
hey miami, welcome aboard but ease up on the caps in your posts please (we can hear you!)
Does anyone think that the nhc will shift their official forecast left and be on track with the models at 5am?
THE NHC'S 11:00 DISCUSSION MENTIONS THE SHIFT TO THE RIGHT AND MISSING THE YUCATAN AND DESPITE NEGATIVE FACTORS INCLUDING SHEAR AND DRY AIR BEING A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL IN FLORIDA
sorry about the cap's force of habit i always type in caps at work and it just doesn't look right too me otherwise i'll try to remember that for future posts
239. MJH
Look at the water vapor models. This storm is pushing the trof around. I dont expect the storm to make a hard right turn the way this storm is pushing through. None of the models have been very accurate so far either.
HELLO EVERYONE!! im new on board and have watched and been a weather freak ever since i was 9 years old in hurricane Andrew down in miami which changed my life! i been reading you alls posts since last year and i have just jumped on board today.
what are your guy's and girl's landfall predictions for florida
Welcome bigsmith6 and miami. I'm pretty new here myself. Lots of good stuff here.
welcome i've lived here in miami all of my 30 years and also just joined the boards tonight
Just looking at the Cancun local weather forecast on this (wunderground) site. Looks like the chance of a Thunderstorm and winds up to 44mph.
Seems pretty mild to me. Think they might be a tad underestimating this?
Friday
Chance of a Thunderstorm. High: 91 F / 33 C Wind ESE 44 mph / 72 km/h
Friday Night
Chance of a Thunderstorm. Low: 77 F / 25 C Wind ESE 40 mph / 64 km/h
Saturday
Rain. High: 87 F / 31 C Wind SE 38 mph / 61 km/h
Saturday Night
Chance of a Thunderstorm. Low: 77 F / 25 C Wind ESE 29 mph / 46 km/h
Sunday
Chance of a Thunderstorm. High: 89 F / 32 C Wind ESE 31 mph / 50 km/h
Sunday Night
Chance of a Thunderstorm. Low: 77 F / 25 C Wind ENE 13 mph / 21 km/h
I've been saying near Tampa and I'm sticking to it grins.
246. MJH
the trof should have picked up the storm by now, wilma is big enough to make her way. That trof is just going to slow her down some. They have been fixated on south florida though. The models will eventually move north though. I'd say north of tampa to the pan handle.
Gamera, heck it's probably doing that now lol. strange report for sure.
welcome miamiwatcher and misterjimster nice to meet you and i agree there is some good stuff here im just trying to figure out whether wilmas latest move was a wobble or a new trend?
Hooboy, they don't need anymore in the panhandle. Actually we don't need it anywere in FL.
250. vlee
I went down to Playa del Carmen the day after Emily...i feel for the people down there. The shelters were turning people away saying they were exclusively for certian hotels (this was at a public school down the street from my condo). This left those who live there with almost no where to go. Please keep my family and friends in playa and cozumel in your thoughts
because of the flow i just don't see going any further north than 26 or 27 especially now with the northward motion i actualy think the models will shift towards extreme sw florida/keys area
Well, gotta get some sleep. Work tomorrow early. I'll be on tomorrow night though or maybe in the morning if I have time. Goodnight and nice to meet everyone.
so u think it will turn more west again before it turns NE ??
personally i think any west motion is done and we are beginning to see the ne turn that was expected, i would say movement n for 24 hrs or so then ne towards the extreme s.florida/keys area i would expect the models will reflect something similar on the next model runs since it looks as though the eye might miss the yucatan and stay in the channel
MisterJimster- where are you located?
bigsmith it seems to be more than a wobble, Wilma is heading almost due north. We'll know more shortly, as a recon plane is out and should soon have data from inside the storm...
MJH,

I'm not sure what you are seeing. The Water Vapor imagery shows Wilma is already being effected by shear from the WSW. The trough that will pick her up is over Eastern TX. Sould move through the North-East Gulf in 24-48 hours and really accelerate Wilma to the NE. I just hope it clips the Yucatan before then to weaken it a bit.
MIAMIWATCHER,

I agree with you. I think it will be lucky to get to 25.5. There is a pretty stron westerly in place.
looking at the water vapor loop i wouldn't be surprised to see cat 5 despite the visible shear on the west side of the storm, so much talk about the yucutan yet i think extreme western cuba might have it worse if the current n to eventually ne movement holds
looks like plane getting ready to make a run at the eye...
getting 129 mph flight level winds gust to 133...

Time (Z) Lat Lon Altitude Dir Speed Gust Temp Dewp
04:38:00 20.55 -85.3 10010 121 82 83 49 45
04:38:30 20.53 -85.31 10007 121 86 86 48 46
04:39:00 20.5 -85.33 10010 120 87 89 46 46
04:39:30 20.48 -85.35 10007 120 90 91 46 45
04:40:00 20.45 -85.36 10000 121 92 93 47 45
04:40:30 20.43 -85.38 10017 119 92 93 48 45
04:41:00 20.41 -85.4 10010 118 93 93 49 45
04:41:30 20.38 -85.41 9997 117 94 97 48 45
04:42:00 20.36 -85.43 10014 116 99 100 48 46
04:42:30 20.33 -85.45 10007 117 102 102 48 46
04:43:00 20.31 -85.46 10007 118 102 105 48 46
04:43:30 20.28 -85.48 10010 119 105 107 47 47
04:44:00 20.26 -85.5 10007 119 107 108 47 47
04:44:30 20.25 -85.51 10007 116 105 106 47 46
04:45:00 20.21 -85.53 10017 116 108 110 45 45
04:45:30 20.2 -85.55 10000 117 116 120 46 46
04:46:00 20.16 -85.56 10004 117 121 123 46 46
04:46:30 20.15 -85.58 10017 114 116 117 44 44
04:47:00 20.11 -85.6 10017 122 115 123 45 45
04:47:30 20.1 -85.61 10007 126 129 133 46 46
anyone watching the disturbance west of the lesser antillies? strong winds affecting the islands but no low pressure center yet, keep an eye on this system we might yet have the first alpha before the season is done
Okay ya'll IT'S ON!! We have found 3 different ways that their proposing to PRIVITIZE ALL WEATHER. NO NEXRAD, NO NWS, NHS, NOAA WEBSITES, THE LIST GOES ON & IT'S BAD. (if ya need to read it all for yourself, click on my name above)

~NOAA is asking the public's opinion till Nov 2nd on a proposed change to thier partnership policy that would allow this. It's easy & quick to leave your comment ~ Release the hounds ~ Link
FBB can you post the link to the site with the live plane feed? i lost it from last time
ah, got it....

Time (Z) Lat Lon Altitude Dir Speed Gust Temp Dewp
04:48:00 20.08 -85.63 10014 132 117 124 47 47
04:48:30 20.06 -85.65 10007 135 107 110 50 50
04:49:00 20.03 -85.66 10000 132 101 101 50 50
04:49:30 20.01 -85.68 10017 127 93 95 53 51
04:50:00 20 -85.7 10000 124 97 98 53 51
04:50:30 19.96 -85.7 10007 121 100 102 53 51
04:51:00 19.95 -85.71 10014 119 103 105 53 51
04:51:30 19.91 -85.73 10010 119 109 113 52 50
04:52:00 19.9 -85.75 10000 119 115 116 54 50
04:52:30 19.88 -85.76 10004 119 118 120 53 50
04:53:00 19.85 -85.78 10017 119 123 124 51 50
04:53:30 19.83 -85.8 10004 118 128 129 50 50
04:54:00 19.81 -85.81 10007 118 131 132 49 49
04:54:30 19.78 -85.83 10010 119 135 138 49 49
04:55:00 19.76 -85.85 10023 117 139 140 50 50
04:55:30 19.75 -85.86 9991 116 141 141 50 50
04:56:00 19.71 -85.88 10056 115 143 147 48 48
04:56:30 19.7 -85.9 9971 119 144 145 49 49
04:57:00 19.66 -85.91 10033 118 115 125 51 51
04:57:30 19.65 -85.93 9987 117 103 106 56 55
Link is at :
http://www.weathermatrix.net/tropical/2005/recon.shtml

winds at 144 gust to 147...

Time (Z) Lat Lon Altitude Dir Speed Gust Temp Dewp
04:48:00 20.08 -85.63 10014 132 117 124 47 47
04:48:30 20.06 -85.65 10007 135 107 110 50 50
04:49:00 20.03 -85.66 10000 132 101 101 50 50
04:49:30 20.01 -85.68 10017 127 93 95 53 51
04:50:00 20 -85.7 10000 124 97 98 53 51
04:50:30 19.96 -85.7 10007 121 100 102 53 51
04:51:00 19.95 -85.71 10014 119 103 105 53 51
04:51:30 19.91 -85.73 10010 119 109 113 52 50
04:52:00 19.9 -85.75 10000 119 115 116 54 50
04:52:30 19.88 -85.76 10004 119 118 120 53 50
04:53:00 19.85 -85.78 10017 119 123 124 51 50
04:53:30 19.83 -85.8 10004 118 128 129 50 50
04:54:00 19.81 -85.81 10007 118 131 132 49 49
04:54:30 19.78 -85.83 10010 119 135 138 49 49
04:55:00 19.76 -85.85 10023 117 139 140 50 50
04:55:30 19.75 -85.86 9991 116 141 141 50 50
04:56:00 19.71 -85.88 10056 115 143 147 48 48
04:56:30 19.7 -85.9 9971 119 144 145 49 49
04:57:00 19.66 -85.91 10033 118 115 125 51 51
04:57:30 19.65 -85.93 9987 117 103 106 56 55
freakster can you post the link?
http://www.weathermatrix.net/tropical/2005/recon.shtml
Time (Z) Lat Lon Altitude Dir Speed Gust Temp Dewp
04:58:00 19.63 -85.95 10014 115 90 92 58 55
04:58:30 19.6 -85.96 10007 115 78 82 58 55
04:59:00 19.58 -85.98 10010 117 68 72 57 55
04:59:30 19.55 -86 10000 116 53 57 60 56
05:00:00 19.51 -86 10014 109 38 43 64 53
05:00:30 19.5 -86.01 10007 109 24 30 67 50
05:01:00 19.46 -86.03 10004 116 14 16 68 49
05:01:30 19.43 -86.03 10000 110 6 9 67 49
05:02:00 19.41 -86.05 10014 355 1 3 65 49
05:02:30 19.38 -86.06 10010 317 8 13 66 49
05:03:00 19.36 -86.1 10007 312 20 21 66 49
05:03:30 19.33 -86.11 10004 312 29 34 65 50
05:04:00 19.31 -86.13 10010 312 48 55 63 53
05:04:30 19.3 -86.15 10014 316 68 71 62 53
05:05:00 19.26 -86.16 10000 314 91 98 61 54
05:05:30 19.23 -86.18 10030 315 106 114 59 55
05:06:00 19.2 -86.2 9978 312 121 123 56 56
05:06:30 19.18 -86.21 10014 308 123 124 55 55
05:07:00 19.15 -86.21 10014 307 129 130 55 55
05:07:30 19.11 -86.23 10004 305 128 129 55 5
i dont usually post on here but lurk like crazy...

if you guys want REAL discussion from the dream team

then check out leftyy420's blog

regular sat updates, vortex messages and computer models.

plus 3 times the people comment in there then over here...

i just thought i would let you guys know, just in case you didn't, that is where everyone and their mom is at right now posting about this storm.
Check out this link... using google maps to track the models

http://www.heidelbergerconsulting.com/hurrimap/
coming back around for another pass...


Time (Z) Lat Lon Altitude Dir Speed Gust Temp Dewp
05:08:00 19.08 -86.23 10014 304 125 126 55 53
05:08:30 19.06 -86.25 10017 302 121 122 55 50
05:09:00 19.03 -86.26 10004 301 115 117 54 51
05:09:30 19 -86.26 10007 300 114 115 54 51
05:10:00 18.98 -86.28 10007 297 110 112 53 51
05:10:30 18.95 -86.3 10014 297 106 106 53 51
05:11:00 18.93 -86.31 10007 298 102 103 53 51
05:11:30 18.93 -86.33 10017 299 101 102 52 51
05:12:00 18.91 -86.35 10004 301 99 99 53 49
05:12:30 18.91 -86.38 10014 303 99 99 53 50
05:13:00 18.9 -86.4 10010 305 97 98 52 52
05:13:30 18.9 -86.41 10007 305 95 97 53 52
05:14:00 18.9 -86.43 10010 306 91 94 52 52
05:14:30 18.88 -86.46 10010 313 85 86 50 50
05:15:00 18.88 -86.48 10020 317 83 84 50 50
05:15:30 18.86 -86.51 10004 320 85 89 51 51
05:16:00 18.86 -86.53 10010 322 89 90 49 49
05:16:30 18.85 -86.56 10027 325 94 99 48 48
05:17:00 18.85 -86.58 9978 318 103 109 46 46
05:17:30 18.83 -86.6 10010 314 110 112 46 46
272. Maui
gnshpdude,

I was looking at that too. Looks like its already over 10 knots. Is this a little sooner that expected? Seems like up until a few hours ago, all forcasts were for re-intensification without mention of any shear within the next 24 hours. Will it keep growing within the next few hours? If so, this will save Mexico from fear of a cat 5 landfall...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html
New Recon, pressure up 7mb

Vortex Data Message
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT12 KNHC 210516
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/05:01:20Z
B. 19 deg 26 min N
086 deg 02 min W
C. 700 mb 2477 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 116 deg 128 kt
G. 28 deg 019 nm
H. 930 mb
I. 10 C/ 3051 m
J. 20 C/ 3054 m
K. 9 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C35
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 1324A WILMA OB 09
MAX FL WIND 128 KT NE QUAD 04:55:50 Z

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/BwanaDogSWFLA/show.htmlLink

SWFLA/SO FLA info blog again for those that didn't see it yesterday. Looks like a Monday/Tuesday event now in So FLA.
275. dcw
What in the world? WHY is she weakening?
276. dcw
Oh. 15kt of shear and shes holding like this? O.O
now going W! Seems they were correct after all.
cTampa, I am in NE St. Pete.
It seems to be at a standstill which is frightening.
The Navy has just posted "99L INVEST". That's the disturbance to the SE of Puerto Rico.
Good morning from The Bahamas :)
The latest computer model tracks for BAMM and UKMET are carrying Wilma south of the mainland and into The Bahamas. In your opinion, how possible is that (percentage wise) and what do you think its category would be at that time.
i ahv updated my blog about this critical northerly movement
Why do I think that this storm will move more northerly than the models show before moving eastward, coming ashore somewhere below Tampa?
I've looked at the jet stream ands it looks to be shifting to the north by the time the storm clears mexico.
Anyone else see this possibility>
morning everyone..
Silver, I agree. That is the direction that I have been saying for awhile now.We'll just have to wait and see!
Jimster, I'm in crescent lake, St. Pete...what do you think our odds are?
TGIF ldyavalon!!
TGIF to you too buckeye..let's get this storm here already
Moring all, and Happy Friday. Raining here
going to be a cloudy dreary day.
Yea! Going to get all my "chores" done today so I can be up for the weekend! It looks like Alpha will be here soon!
What a year!
Cancun radar again (the eye looks smaller and more ragged than last night, IMHO.)
link
i decided last night that my shuteers are staying up until 11/30. too much of a pain to put up and i don't think we will be done after this
morning palmbeacher
have you heard any talk of flood watches. i know in port st lucie we're getting soaked already
I'm sticking by my earlier prediction...landfall just South of Sarasota...Cat 2...100 mph...be ready, folks...once those westerlies grab Wilma, it's gonna get here in a hurry!
For those who missed it last night, here is the La Bajada radar loop link again. link
Oops! try again. La Bajada Nexrad
i think the storm will BARELY clip the yucatan, and NOT meander as forcasted, but will hit florida a little sooner than the models have indicated......

cat 2 in tampa...... monday! ;) thats my prediction! ;)
ldy, I haven't heard of any flood watches yet.
I do know that the perplexing question is "do I shutter
up or not?" I was going to then decided to wait,
then I decided to, then to wait. I feel like a yo-yo!
lol palmbeacher..i started yeasterday at 4 and stopped at 7..have some more to put up but now i think i'll wait to put up the rest..tell you one thing though.what is up will stay up until the seasone is done
By the way, thoughts and prayers
to the people on the Yuchatan. So sad...
thelmores, I agree with you. I don't think she will start going east until the next short wave comes along on Sat.night
ldy, I don't blame you, what a pain. I just
don't want to be out there doing it when the
wind picks up. The rain I can handle, but I am
not talented enough to do it in the wind.
A quick note about hurricane shutters. If you have shutters and you are receiving a discount on your home insurance premium, you better put install them regardless of the hurricanes intensity. If you don't your insurance company will not pay you a dime if you have any damage whatsoever.
Also, please wait unit watches and warnings are posted for your area before installing your shutters because you do not want to be in your home for 3 or 4 days with them up. It is a MAJOR fire hazard. I hope people read this and heed the advice.
morning!
I didn't know that FSU. Makes sense though. I'm sure when the ins. companies have huge numbers of claims they will look for any reason not to pay.

As for me, even though I probably wouldn't put them up in a cat 1, I think I will this time (I'm near ft. lauderdale) b/c I don't trust what wilma will do.
you have anyone to help palmbeacher?
Thanks, FSU thats the problem, fire! You just
never know what could happen, and you don't want to
be stuck inside.
Avalon, what part of PSL are you in, I'm over by centennial HS
ldy, yeah I have help. thanks for asking.
You?
Good morning everyone.

I am a new poster, but I have been reading Dr. Jeff's blog both this season and in 2004. I am an aspiring amateur meteorologist, and I've been tutored by a friend currently living in San Antonio, TX who has studied weather on his own since age 10 or 12 and was actually working for NWS when I first met him 3 years ago.

I live in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. Here in Baton Rouge, we endured both winds and rain from both Katrina and Rita, but we escaped the disastrous consequences experienced by New Orleans and the Mississippi Gulf Coast.

I have been eyeing Wilma all week with a jaundiced eye. Why? Because NHC told us the entire week prior to the landfall of Katrina, that she was going to the panhandle of Florida, and it was only 2 days prior to landfall that they changed their forecast, leaving SE Louisiana entirely too little time to accomplish evacuation. Before you all jump me, let me hasten to add, that NHC's delayed warning for New Orleans does *not* excuse the lack of preparation on the part of Louisiana state and New Orleans officials for the massive job of evacuating New Orleans!! I believe that Louisiana and New Orleans officials should have *anticipated* the possibility that Katrina would come this way and should have taken pro-active measures *before* NHC changed their forecast. Even I, a novice observer, was leery of trusting NHC and told my co-workers all week long that I wouldn't be too sure it wouldn't come our way!! Of course, considering that New Orleans evacuated for Ivan last year and it turned out to be "for nothing", I suppose one can understand why no one wanted to evacuate until they knew for sure. But 48 hours prior to landfall??? Come ON!!!!

Because of that, I will *never* assume that a hurricane is not going to be "our problem" until it's within 24 hours of the projected landfall, and within 200-250 miles from shore!! I've lived in Louisiana all of my life. I watched from the NW corner of the state until I was 18-24, and then I moved south to Baton Rouge 26 years ago. So I've observed the antics of a lot of hurricanes. I've seen them pick a target and race toward lanfall, and I've seen them dilly-dally around in the Gulf and leave everyone baffled as to their final destinations for DAYS and then finally pick the least-expected point of attack. These things are no joke, and they're not any of them to be taken lightly.

I have two major comments here:

1) EVERYONE
Here is the CIRA shear map as of 2 AM this morning. Most of the shear east of Wilma is actually created by the outflow from the storm itself.
flacane i'm over by southbend lakes.psl blvd and the turnpike
palmbeacher i have my live in bf to help plus he's been getting side jobs putting up shutters.he just called and recruited me for tomorrow..i asked him if we split the money 50/50 lol
There you go Ldy. I live with my b/f also, after Wilma I
probably won't see him for awhile. He works to the
power co.
i can't believe all the pre storm prep fpl is doing..they've been reinforcing all the poles up here and even putting some lines underground..guess they've learned..has your bf been working overtime yet?
Morning all! I won't be on after today until after the storm...what am I going to do??? I will have WU withdrawls! Since I found this site my productivity level at work has really suffered!
morning vero
Florida Flicker and Light. I think they do a pretty great job but sometimes I wonder about their infrastructure. You would think that this being florida they would have it set up to take smaller storms. I live in a relatively newer home with electric underground and I am always one of the first to lose power. We lost power with Katrina who hit southern miami at 5:30 in the afternoon.
Have you ever seen a thunderstorm 75 miles from the eye all the way around eye \?

Link
Ldy, he is a superintendant, so overtime for him won't
happen until after.
Morning Vero!
I hear you, Vero. This is addicting - especially when something is headed towards us.
The thing is all the underground feeds off a line above
ground and they all run on a switch. If the switch goes
everthing coming off that goes.
I apologize for posting an incomplete post. Too bad this site doesn't allow the capability to edit previous posts, or I would simply go back and complete it. But I accidentally hit a series of keys in my quick typing and posted it too early. LOL

Back to my two major comments:

1) EVERYONE in the current projected strike zone should seriously consider evacuating NOW. Government ordered or not, mandatory or not, if you can get out, it's never being over-reactive to do so, IMHO. After Katrina, if I were in the path of another *monster* storm (category 3 or higher), and if I were able to evacuate, I would do so before the government told me to do so. Of course, because of my job (essential employee at a municipal wastewater treatment plant) I could not presently evacuate, and there may be many others who simply cannot for similar reasons. However, anyone who can would certainly not be wrong or un-wise for doing so. It has been seen within the last 13 months, in the evacuations for Ivan, Katrina, and Rita, that the sooner evacuations begin, the better it would be for all involved -- thinking of long lines, traffic bottlenecks, gasoline shortages, etc., etc., etc.

2) BECAUSE OF the late revision of strike area for Katrina, NOBODY in the entire Gulf region should assume that we're "safe" just because we're not in Florida!!! Northern Florida, and even Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana should all continue to monitor the storm for any sneaky last-minute surprises. I honestly will not believe that even Louisiana is safe, until at LEAST Sunday afternoon. I would encourage everyone on or near the Gulf Coast to take the same attitude toward this monster.

Sonny
morning all
So much for the safety of underground wires. Sounds to me like putting all your eggs in one basket :)
Can anyone tell me what the "current" projected time of landfall in FL is? I heard something about Tuesday? Is that right?
Hi, dude!
if this doesn't stall like they think it will when would fl landfall be?
early tuesday.
morning weatherdude
morning dude
hey coconut
morning dude!!! TGIF
morning palmbeacher, ldy....gotta love this wait and see game that Wilam is playing with us
Yeah, she is such a tease
i think tonight i'll just start drinking heavily and sleep through the weekend.wake up in time for landfall lol
morning buckeye Yeah TGIF!!
and not in a good way!
well maybe this extra time will give publix time to get more spaghettios
Sonny - good information in your post. I feel as you do that everyone around here is being way too complacent and have let their guard down as the forecast thusfar has been so consistent with South Florida and the models.
Sounds good to me Ldy!lol
i asked this eralier and didn't get a response.what are the chances this thing doesn't stall and slams florida sooner rather then later?
LOVE spaghettios!!! My favorite food!! I think food is my favorite food!! LOL
Sonny, you're right! It's not over until it's gone! She can do almost anything she wants to. It's so hard to tell what Wilma will do past 24 hrs!
ldy, anything is possible with this system..my thinking is that she does not stall, makes it further north and thus the track is adjusted north as well....just my un-scientific guess
is there any links to check on the low pressure system that is suppose to pull away and make it stall?
Greetings, all. I'm also new to the blog, and I am located in Port St. Lucie, Florida. We had some nasty thunderstorms this morning. As to shutters, mine will go up tonight or tomorrow, thunderstorms permitting. As someone else said, rain I can deal with, wind is another matter. I lost my place to Frances last year, and moved to this place just 2 days before Jeanne. So I was putting up shutters the morning before Jeanne hit. That was not pleasant, even moderate wind makes it VERY hard to hold onto the shutters or plywood.

BTW, thanks to everyone here for all the info and links. I run a communications center for a private corporation, and the info I have found here is better than some of the "offical" sites.
hi weatherweasel. where in port st lucie are u? i'm by southbend lakes.psl blvd and the turnpike
Sonny,
Thank You for your comment on this storm... I have always said this, If you live any where on the gulf coast that we all should be ready for the unexpected. We never know what these storms will do untill they pass... Now I know south fl is the target and my heart goes out to all of them but it still could go any where...

Taco
Here are the sea surface temperature and 26 degree isotherm charts for the Gulf. As Wilma makes the turn we all expect and heads east, the warm water east of Havana starts to get thin. How much strength Wilma maintains will become dependent on forward speed: the more slowly she moves, the more she will well cold water up from below and choke herself. The models I have seen suggest a rapid acceleration after the turn, but we shall see.




img src="
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2005293god26.png">
Sorry for the typos! try again:
img src="
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2005293god26.png">


.img src="
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2005293god26.png">
<<<<
she is impressive, too bad she is raking to whole resort area
Ldy, did you get your answer to your question???
I'm off Gatlin Blvd, closer to I-95 than you.
Anyone remember how strong Emily was when she hit Cancun?
Posting from Miami, FL: I lived through (and later studied)Andrew in '92 and most recently dealt with Katrina (phase 1). I studied meteorology and atmospheric sciences in college and I have to say that I disagree with the notion that Wilma will track north of the NHC forecast. The storm's steady northward movement and apparent lack of stalling out leads me to think that it will continue as is for the next 24 hours, positioning it less than 150 miles north of its current position, off the NE coast of Yucatan. At that point, the storm will meet the trough which will force it to make a slow turn toward the NNE, then NE. Eventually, I see Wilma moving ENE with landfall somewhere between Flamingo and Naples, probably near Everglades City/Chokoloskee.
10:00 a.m. Miami NWS statement:

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TROPICAL MOISTURE ALREADY BEING ADVECTED
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA IN ADVANCE OF HURRICANE WILMA. RADAR
SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FAIRLY NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE KEYS...MOVING NORTH. THESE WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS MORNING. MADE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS
PACKAGE...OTHER THAN TO EXTEND THE HIGH POPS INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHICH
IS INLINE WITH LATEST FORECAST TRACK OF WILMA. IT APPEARS WILMA WILL
BE SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT...CROSSING
SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY MORNING (PERHAPS IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS)...AND EMERGING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A WEAKENING TROPICAL
CYCLONE UNDERGOING AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. EXACT POSITIONING OF
ALL HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH A HURRICANE ARE STILL DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT. AT THIS MOMENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SEEMS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY THE RAPID PACE OF THE SYSTEM WHILE HEAVIEST
PRECIP SHOULD FAVOR NORTH OF TRACK...MORE REMINISCENT OF A
DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. GIVEN PRESENT FORECAST TRACK...THIS
WOULD BE MORE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. SOUTH FLORIDA WILL HAVE ENOUGH
TO CONTEND WITH AS STORM SURGE...WINDS...AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES
APPEAR TO BE OUR GREATEST HAZARDS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE BY TUESDAY AS SYSTEM RAPIDLY
EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SURGE OF COOL AND
DRY AIR BEHIND THE HURRICANE WILL FINISH OUT THE WEEK WITH WHAT
SHOULD BE THE FIRST FALL LIKE WEATHER OF THE SEASON.
no i didn't taco
so sunshine you don't think it will stall? when do you think fl landfall will be?
Thanks coconut
radio update just said expect storm here late sunday early monday.which one is it already lol
Avalon: I predict we will start feeling Wilma by Thanksgiving. :)
LMAO coconut!
Coconut Creek - LOL!! It is certainly beginning to feel that way!
shouldn't our fearless leader Dr. Masters
be putting out an update soon?
lmao coconut.that's what it feels like..i told myself i would only buy one pack of cigarettes for the storm yesterday and after it was through i would quit..well i think i'm gonna smoke the whole thing before it gets here lol
Hope so, it seems that there were two main scenarios:

1. Hard hit on Yucatan beats up wilma and she hobbles over here.

2. Just brushes Yucatan (I use the word "just" loosely b/c this is a bad storm and they will be hard hit) and comes at us much stronger.

It seems like it is closer to option #2.
Dr. Masters' info on why storm surge might be less of a problem for Quintana Roo cites the close deeper offshore area as a benefit. Unfortunately, the area between Cozumel and the peninsula has deteriorated in the last 10 years, partly due to past storms. Anyone have info about the effects on underwater environment of the surge? past canes in this area have knocked out or silted over lots of corals and sponges.
i predict wilma will skirt south of the keys go north into the atlantic make a loop east of the treasure coast and come onshore right above my house late next week...j/k people.but boy wouldn't that be something
With this storm, nothing would surprise me
new post
Ldy,
There could be 2 things that could make Wilma move faster or slower...

1: If the Cold Front dips down far enough it could pick up wilma and move her a lot faster to the east northeast might even miss FL...

2: As we all know if the cold front stalls or does not come down far enough ussally a High Pressure builds in after the front and could very well send wilma to the west or just stalls her for just days...

Now I am NOT saying this will happen but with all do respect to the NHC they have not gotten the track right and anything could happen...
LdyAvalon,

I think there is a potential that after making the turn (which should take 12-18 hours), the storm will "race" toward the peninsula, perhaps as rapidly as 16 mph. If so, I believe the mainland will be looking at an all-day Sunday event, as opposed to an early morning Monday event.

After the 2013 season it's hard to remember all the storms in 2005.