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Wilma: freak of nature

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:25 PM GMT on October 19, 2005

There has never been a hurricane like Wilma before. With an unbelievable round of intensification that saw the pressure drop 87 mb in just 12 hours, Wilma smashed the all-time record for lowest pressure in an Atlantic hurricane this morning. The 4 am hurricane hunter report put the pressure at 882 mb, easily besting the previous record of 888 mb set in Hurricane Gilbert of 1988. Since no hurricane hunter airplane has been in the eye since then, Wilma may be even stronger now. The eye diameter of Wilma during this round of intensification shrunk as low as 2 nautical miles, which may be the smallest eye diameter ever measured in a tropical cyclone. The only eye I could find close to that small in the records was a 3 nm one, the Category 4 Typhoon Jeliwat in 2000. It's amazing the hurricane hunters were even able to penetrate the eye--it's really tough to hit a 2 mile wide eye when you're flying crabbed over at a 30 degree yaw angle fighting horizontal flight level winds of 185 mph and severe turbulence. This is an incredibly compact, amazingly intense hurricane, the likes of which has never been seen in the Atlantic. The Hurricane Season of 2005 keeps topping itself with new firsts, and now boasts three of the five most intense hurricanes of all time--Katrina, Rita, and Wilma.

Where will Wilma go?
There is a lot of uncertainty about this, as usual. After last night's flight by the NOAA jet, the computer models have come into better agreement, forecasting a track northwest through the Yucatan Channel, and then northeast across southern Florida. Cuba will probably end up getting the worst of Wilma, particularly the western tip of Cuba, which could see a direct hit.

After Cuba comes Florida. The models are converging on a landfall over the sparsely populated Everglades, but Wilma could hit as far north as Sarasota or pass south of the Keys. In any case, I expect the evacuation order for non-residents in the Keys will be given today, and the Keys and residents of southwest Florida from Naples southward are at greatest risk from Wilma. Assuming Wilma does hit the Everglades as expected, the Gold Coast of Florida from Miami to West Palm Beach is in for a severe pounding after Wilma crosses south Florida.

How strong will Wilma be?
Hurricanes do not maintain Category 5 strength very long, and Wilma is unlikely to be at that strength when it clears the Yucatan Channel and turns northeast towards Florida. Combine with that the possible effects of weakening due to interaction of a landfall on the western tip of Cuba or the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, Wilma is likely to be a Category 3 or 4 hurricane as it starts bearing down on southwest Florida. When Wilma does make this turn, the winds that will be turning her will also be creating some significant wind shear, which will weaken the storm. Wilma will be moving fairly quickly, though, so the shear won't have a lot of time to weaken her. I'm guessing this weakening will be in the order of 10 - 20 mph.

The end result of all these factors will cause Wilma to hit southwest Florida in the Everglades as a Category 3 or weak Category 4 hurricane with winds in the 120 mph - 135 mph range. The Everglades are low and swampy, and passage over the this area does not weaken a hurricane as much as landfall further north over the Florida Peninsula. In the case of Hurricane Andrew, which passed across the Everglades on a reverse path, the hurricane started its traverse as a Category 5 hurricane with 170 mph winds and a 922 mb central pressure. By the time it emerged in the Gulf of Mexico, Andrew was a Category 3 hurricane with 130 mph winds and a central pressure of 951 mb. Andrew was a very small hurricane, and passage over the Everglades weakened it considerably. In the case of Hurricane Katrina earlier this year, the traverse of south Florida did not significantly weaken the storm. Katrina started its traverse of south Florida with a central pressure of 981 mb and 80 mph winds, and finished with a central pressure of 985 mb and 75 mph winds. Katrina was a much larger storm than Andrew, and more representative of the size Wilma is likely to have over Florida.

The closest analogue storm I can find in the archives is an October 1906 hurricane that looks remarkably similar. The 1906 hurricane formed in the western Caribbean, brushed Cuba as it passed through the Yucatan Channel, then crossed extreme southern Florida, passing from the Everglades to Fort Lauderdale. This hurricane weakened from a Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds to a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds as it crossed Florida.

I think we can expect Wilma to behave in a similar fashion as the 1906 hurricane, and lose about 10 mph in its peak winds due to passage over the Everglades. Wilma may lose an additional 5 mph due to the continued action of the expected higher wind shear. This would make Wilma a strong Category 2 or weak Category 3 hurricane over Miami/Fort Lauderdale with peak winds of 105 - 120 mph. A really big question is how far out will the hurricane force winds extend? Wilma is currently a very compact storm with hurricane force winds extending out only 15 miles from the center. If she maintains this compact structure, damage in Florida will be limited to a very small area. However, with three days remaining over very warm waters, Wilma will expand its windfield somewhat, so that hurricane force winds will extend out 60 - 90 miles from the center. This will be enough to cause severe damage to the Gold Coast in the $10 - $20 billion range. If Wilma follows the path I expect, this will be the worst hurricane in the Miami Beach/Fort Lauderdale area since 1965's Hurricane Betsy.

Keep in mind that the average error in a hurricane track forecasts four days is over 200 miles, and that our skill in making intensity forecasts is low--as witnessed in Wilma's incredible ascent from a Category 1 to Category 5 hurricane in just 12 hours.

What has Wilma done so far?
Wilma has claimed her first victims; up to ten are dead on Haiti in landslides triggered by the hurricane's heavy rains. Mudslides and flooding are also serious problems in the southeastern Cuban provinces of Guantnamo, Santiago de Cuba and Granma. Nearly 13 inches (33 cm) of rain was measured at Santiago de Cuba yesterday. The Cuban newspaper Granma is reporting 255 homes damaged or destroyed in that town, and sections of the Sevilla-Guam-Santiago de Cuba highway impassable due to swollen rivers, while landslides have blocked the Cordovelo-Loma Blanca road. In Jamaica, widespread flooding has cut off several communities and caused millions in damage to roads. All schools are closed on the island through Thursday and hospitals are taking only emergency patients. Rainfall rates as high as two inches per hour were observed in the Blue Mountains of south-central Jamaica yesterday.

I'll have another update this afternoon, there's a lot more to talk about.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

First post. Where is everyone.
Dr. Masters ~ As always thank you for your updates. I enjoy reading them and it gives me insight on what to expect. I live in west boynton beach, florida which is just south west of wpb. I will give updates as long as I can so everyone can see what is going on in palm beach county. Thanks again!
Um, why is nobody here? is there a 'cane on its way and I've missed it?
Hello,
This is my first time on this site. My grown children are in West Palm Beach in a facility called The Watershed. I am very worried. Does anyone know of the facility? Should I insist that they fly home now? Thanks

Sherry,
Click on the "Mail Box" link over on the extreme upper left of.

You have mail.
I don't like that fact that Naples could see that worst of it. Yikes!
Newbie here...I live 30 miles north of Tampa on the water and I have a funny feeling about this storm. I know what the models show, but I am not convinced of that 90degree turn. Any thoughts anyone.
I woke up this morning and the fire ant mounds had "for sale" signs on them, I wonder what's up?
harpazo
Not an expert by any means, but I dont think I would take a chance in WPB. Get out while the gettins good.
is it me or does it looks like the track moved a little further north at 11am?
Hi,

I don't know what the Watershed is, but I do live near WPB. I live in Palm Beach Gardens. Right now, it is going to be impossible probably to get a ticket out of here because we have people who are going to have to evacuate and will choose to fly. How far away are they from the coast? I am 3 miles inland. They could go a few days without electricity and running water so they should bulk up on "hurricane supplies," but they should be okay otherwise.
Hurricane Wilma Advisory Number 17

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on October 19, 2005
...Potentially catastrophic category five Hurricane Wilma continues west-northwestward...Hurricane Warning issued for a portion of the Yucatan...

At 11 am EDT...1500z...the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from San Felipe to Tulum on the Yucatan Peninsula...including Cozumel and nearby islands.

Hurricane conditions are also possible on Swan Island.

At 11 am EDT...the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from south of Tulum to Chetumal.

At 11 am EDT...the government of Belize has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Belize from the border with Mexico southward to Belize City.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from south of Tulum to Punta gruesa.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect in Cuba for the provinces of Matanzas westward through Pinar del Rio...and for the Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Honduras from the Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Cabo camaron.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for the Cayman Islands.

All interests in the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of extremely dangerous Hurricane Wilma.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located near latitude 17.4 north... longitude 83.2 west or about 325 miles... 520 km... southeast of Cozumel Mexico.

Wilma is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph ...11 km/hr. A turn toward the northwest is expected during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 175 mph...280 km/hr...with higher gusts. Wilma is a potentially catastrophic category five hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in hurricanes of this intensity...and are likely during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles... 85 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles...260 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 882 mb...26.05 inches.

Wilma is expected to produce storm total accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with local amounts near 25 inches in mountainous terrain across Cuba through Friday. Additional rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches...with local amounts of 15 inches...are possible across the Cayman Islands...Swan Island...and Jamaica through Thursday. Storm total accumulations of 4 to 6 inches...with isolated amounts of 8 to 12 inches...are possible from Honduras northward to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through Thursday.

Repeating the 11 am EDT position...17.4 N... 83.2 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds...175 mph. Minimum central pressure... 882 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 PM EDT.

Forecaster Franklin


$$



FSUstormnut - I'm with ya, and will update untill pwr is lost.
Thank you CP...I appreciate your help. Like I said, I think I am going to wait and see...I remember with Charley, my local weatherman (Tom Terry) was the first (even before NHC) to predict that Charley was going to turn sooner than later....and boy did we get pounded by Charley. I watched Tom until the very moment I lost power.
Not that I dont love all the post from all of the Floridians in here, but I guess all you guys have your bags packed?
Hi everybody! Wow what a difference a day makes huh? Anybody think there is a chance that trough won't pick the storm up and turn it east?
sorry never heard of watershed? do know something else close to it?
most of us stayed up last night till 5am watching wilma intensify as the HH fed us data. It was pretty wild, at one point the HH lost a lot of altitude an the data stop for about 15 min we thought the plane crashed.
Anyone else think Tampa Bay is going to be the one that gets screwed here?? We are so long overdue...
On careful consideration a $20 billion ticket will mean this is one of the most economically damaging canes ever. Most people overlook the systemic drain this has on the region. Many people are factoring hurricanes into their choice of location...,., thanks to the media attention.
So far little has been said of the disaster that even a modest 12 foot storm surge would bring on the area around Fort Myers. Wilma has some prime real estate to aim at, some of the countrys most desirable real estate. The massive wize of wilma will mean hurricane winds will stretch out to take a wide and powerful swipe at business and homes. Just remember, this storm may not weaken all that much as it transverses us. People in-land often have the comfort of knowing they are somehow safer from the wind - not this time. It could hit Miami with horrendous devastation. It will be a day or two until we know the path with some confidence.
This link illustrates the areas that would suffer most damage.

http://www.luddist.com/popdis90.GIF
FL punk: you may get your wish in the worst way.
Just remember, many power companies, relief workers and resources are still in LA, MS, AL areas - which may mean longer power outages and more hardship after Wilma. My mother-in-law didn't want to evacuate Katrina because she could site dozens of hurricanes that she had "survived" We got her out a day and a half before Katrina and it took 12 hours to go 100 miles. Go now if you can. It's not worth it to try to ride it out or hope that it goes elsewhere.
hello all....tense days ahead
I like how the doctor says, "the Gold Coast of Florida from Miami to West Palm Beach is in for a severe pounding after Wilma crosses south Florida." Makes me feel soo much better. Sigh...
1st time posting here- I have lurked and read these blog all hurricane season but I had to jump in with Wilma WOW! what a crazy scary hurricane-

Westcoastfla- I totaly agree with you Im not to sure about that 90 degree turn- I see Charlie all over again marching up the I-4 corridor....

SheeryB- I LOVE Tom too- and I loved his ask Tom updates when we didnt have power during the storms last year he kept us informed over the radio- I want to hear what he says tonight-

Everyone- thanks for all your post this blog is full of good insight-
I just want to say thank you to Dr. Tom for the clarity of the reports here.
no chance IMO of the storm really turning toward the east...

almost all of the computer models are in general consensus that southern florida is going to be the target.

it'd be tough to buck that prediction.

who knows tho.
Dr. M,
What happened to the flight last night? Up early this morning to check, and on Leftyy's blog, several indicated they may be a problem.
Yea, what NOLA said, I would be ready to run and not get trapped behind the traffic. The meer unpredictability this hurricane season has exhibited would be enough to make me go visit relatives up north or something. Hey, you guys in Florida can come play in the snow in Alaska for a while if you want.
What are everyone's guesses for the Tampa Bay area??? I'm in Pinellas County (St. Pete/Clearwater).
I would think that a storm would have to tear itself somewhat apart if it were to make a hard 90 degree turn in such a short period. Wouldn't this defy physics?
westcoast: I agree... that's quite a sharp turn for such a big girl...
I told you, Destiny. I'd rather a cat3 at my door than freeze my buns up north :)
Link

Here are the buoys reporting near Wilma. Those are some monster wave heights
I don't like the fact it coming across the state as a cat 3!
you know when they are counting on this and that to happen such as front pulling storms north I just don't see that radical of a turn and the fact that if they say everglades then it will be north of that location.. So Tampa north i would watch out.. Look at Katrina and Rita both they were counting on the same type of scenerio.
I am concerned about the projection of Wilma to cross Lake Okeechobee...does anyone know what the possible ramifications are if this happens?
NOLAinNC:
Some of us have to wait tenuously by the TV and run at the last second.... We can't afford to stay in a hotel for dyas before and days after. Grin and bear the traffic is my motto.... I need to make more $$, sigh.
wombats.... you're making me nervous.... this little peninsula would be an island....
A question Dr. Masters

With both Rita and Wilma showing unusually low pressure readings compared to wind speeds, Im wondering if its possible that the instruments are simply getting better at measuring pressure.

For example, if you could send todays aircraft and instruments back to measure Andrew, might we find that the central pressure was actually lower?

Or am totally off base with this?
verobeach, that is what I was just thinking about. I think the lake is at a low level right now. Not sure what will happen.
don't forget, this will probably be a cat 3 at landfall with a cat 5 storm surge. the surge will be huge.

i feel for those stuck between a rock and a hard place, monetarily speaking...hook up with family if you can in other places. its a tough situation.
Hey LilD, I hear ya. Most of my friends and family are in that boat as we speak! Some are still in hotels, most have not gone back to N.O. If at all possible, though, try to get out or be as prepared as you can be.
If you can't get to Alaska, come to Asheville. We have a great Red Cross center here (it's sad that I know that!) and the hotels are emptying out - our leaves forgot to change this year - another weird weather fact.
All of my realatives live in Scotland, I was born there... Staying in a hotel for like a month is cheaper than that round trip flight.. LOL
I am just saying keep an eye out... these things this far out will change.. I was in texas for rita and saw first hand how that forcast changed daily....
I agree.. Charley was headed straight for us and smashed Punta Gorda instead... have some friends down there who were not prepared... I've still got a ton of canned food from last year, just need water and gas...
Oh dear, it hits Fl as a 3 or 4 and then finshes off New England with more storms and floods. Un believable.

IT APPEARS THAT WILMA WILL STILL BE A FORMIDABLE HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES FLORIDA. AFTER THAT...AS WILMA INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE UPPER-LOW...THE WIND FIELD OF
WILMA IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND CONSIDERABLY...AND EVEN GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM AT 5 DAYS.

PRONOUNCED TROCHOIDAL OSCILLATIONS ARE BEING SUPERIMPOSED ON A MEAN MOTION OF 300/6. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 96 HOURS. HOWEVER...RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS AND NOGAPS ARE SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF A THREAT TO NEW ENGLAND.
IN THIS SCENARIO...WILMA BECOMES CAPTURED BY A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN FOUR DAYS.
ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL REACH WILMA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SINCE THEN THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION...ALTHOUGH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED A BIT. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE WILL BE HELD AT 150 KT
PENDING FURTHER RECONNAISSANCE DATA. AT THIS POINT...THE BEST
ESTIMATE FOR THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS A BLEND OF THE 881 MB
EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE AIRCRAFT AND THE 884 MB FROM AN EYE DROP THAT
SPLASHED IN 23 KT WINDS. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A DISTINCT OUTER
WIND MAXIMUM AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A FORMATIVE OUTER EYEWALL.
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES WILL HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE
INTENSITY OF WILMA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THESE ARE
IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME AND ARE NOT REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
ONCE WILMA ENTERS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS IDEAL AS THEY ARE NOW AND SOME WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT WILMA WILL STILL BE A
FORMIDABLE HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES FLORIDA. AFTER THAT...AS
WILMA INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE UPPER-LOW...THE WIND FIELD OF
WILMA IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND CONSIDERABLY...AND EVEN GLOBAL MODELS
ARE SHOWING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM AT 5 DAYS.

PRONOUNCED TROCHOIDAL OSCILLATIONS ARE BEING SUPERIMPOSED ON A MEAN
MOTION OF 300/6. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
TRACK THROUGH 96 HOURS. HOWEVER...RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS AND
NOGAPS ARE SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF A THREAT TO NEW ENGLAND.
IN THIS SCENARIO...WILMA BECOMES CAPTURED BY A LARGE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN
FOUR DAYS. THE ECMWF AND IN PARTICULAR THE UKMET...BOTH OLDER
RUNS...DO NOT YET INDICATE THIS. THE FIVE-DAY OFFICIAL FORECAST
POINT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...BUT IS STILL MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND THAN
THE GFDL...GFS...AND NOGAPS GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
bluewire, don't get caught underestimating. No one predicted this. I don't get why people on here would still take forecasters word as gospel. NOT ONE FORECASTER OR WEATHER MAN/WOMAN PREDICTED THIS TYPE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. EXCEPT FOR ME!!!!!!!!
TB area: Dr. Jeff seems convinced Wilma will stay south of us (how far south, well...), making landfall perhaps around Naples. I wouldn't bet on it being that far south, myself.

If it's tracking north of Ft. Myers tomorrow afternoon, I'm boarding up (or trying to ... it'll be my first time). Otherwise, landfall south of us (say, Bradenton as opposed to Tarpon Springs) will limit the storm surge in the bay. Wilma is also expected to be a very fast-moving storm, so we won't have as much rain as Frances or Jeanne brought to SE FL.

I'm keeping a close eye on both the tracks *and* the cone, getting gas and water, but at the moment I don't expect to evacuate.
Do y'all think FEMA will be "retooled" in time for Wilma landfall?

http://www.cnn.com/2005/POLITICS/10/19/katarina.chertoff.ap/index.html
So 53rd..where are you thinking she will hit?
accuweather has this thing really revving up to full throttle even at land fall plus this link http://hurricane.methaz.org/cgi-bin/mapserv.exe?mode=browse&zoom=1&layer=country&layer=county&layer=ucntyname&layer=track&layer=simtrack&layer=damage&layer=posn&layer=inten&layer=mslp&imgxy=299.5+299.5&imgext=-81.740390+26.581481+-77.288538+31.025926&map=..%2Fhurapak%2FAAL242005.map&savequery=true


really scares me!
With a lot of the other storms the landfall was not where they predicted this far out. I can only hope that is true here. I am NOT looking to see another storm. Anyone want to buy a nice house in WPB? Great for hurricane enthusiasts!
you will see her small inner eye (2-4nm) start to fall apart/diminsh in the next 3-6 hours as the bigger outer eye (18-24nm) starts to strengthen. then we will have our doughnut within 12-16 hours. when it does doughnut, any loss in strength will level out, and we may have a little slight restrengthening phase untill she hits the slightly cooler waters just north of western cuba/less favorable environment. If she doesnt slightly restrengthen, she will at least maintain strength untill she gets 50-80 miles into the gulf. Then who knows, well just have to sit back, watch and wait...what do you guys think on this????
This is absolutely insane. I live in Tampa and I am scheduled to go on a cruise from Tampa to Cozumel which departs Thursday and gets back Monday morning. Carnival is still saying that we will be going to Cozumel. Are they insane?

It's amazing that we live in a society where these cruise lines care more about their gambling profits than assuring the safety of the customers. I can't believe this.
Caneman that is a scary link. Everyone on the east coast of FL should go check it out.
Anyone have elevation stats on FLA?
"I expect, this will be the worst hurricane in the Miami Beach/Fort Lauderdale area since 1965's Hurricane Betsy."

Jeff, aren't you forgetting Andrew?
Destiny- those wave heights are nothing compared to some of the heights recorded before Katrina (30+ foot waves) and Ivan last year (40+ foot waves).
just like katrina was "supposed" to hit the panhandle of florida, like rita was "supposed" to hit galveston instead of lake charles (over 100miles away)...

lets face it, this season has been horribly unpredictable and the 5 day forecasts have been relatively useless so far. granted, they're still in that range of unpredictability, but everyone's banking on naples yet the storm hasnt made its turn yet.

when Wilma starts losing strength, which in the IR imagery, it most certainly looks like shes not 175/882 anymore, that eye is gonna grow. Look at Dr Masters' link to Typhoon Meliwat, the eye grew from 3nm to 90nm! if she's like that when she makes landfall, a cat2 will be devastating due to the amazingly widespread damage. im expecting the eye to expand to about 30-35nm at landfall as a mid range cat3.

i wont say location yet though :\
Don't know the stats but can tell you that southern florida is very flat and not far above sea level. As you go north, the higher the elevation.
caneman thanks for that link, I'll be bookmarking that page.
look at how the lake is right between the computer models. Not good.
Caneman -

Scary...very scary....
St. Petersburg has no hills. My house is at about 2-3ft above....
I work for a fire dept just north of WPB. All the administration are a bit on edge. I didnt see them like this even with last years storms.I think they know something we dont.
Peg, maybe he was speaking to the fact that Andrew hit south of Miami in Homestead. The eye did not cross through a major metropolitan area.
Be afraid, be VERY afraid! Prepare please.
For those looking for stats on elevation for the counties along Florida's SW coast, go to the Wink TV web site (www.winktv.com) - and look on the lower left side of the home page. Much of the populated sections of Charlotte, Lee, and Collier counties sit at a very low elevation.
I hope you guys are preparing!!

I know this sounds dumb, but all of the models seem pretty tight, so there isn't really a chance of it coming here is there??
75. Solo
I'm a St. Pete resident, in flood zone E. I live less than a quarter mile from the Old Tampa Bay shoreline. You can bet your A** that I'll be watching the track solidify with GREAT interest. At this point, I expect to remain here. That could change depending on what the tracks look like Friday or Saturday. Y'al be safe and stay ALERT!
Code: It's amazing how people still are clueless though on this side of the state. My neighbor is like "oh, well it's going to hit the west side, not over here" Duh! And when I tell here that it has to exit the state she thinks that the everglades will tear up the storm. It's not like the glades is a mountain or something.
Yeah.. what happened to the Cat 3 maximum intensities due to the cooler waters? What happened to that prediction.

I think the maps need a redraw. I think she hits the panhandle of FL right around Apalachee Bay.

I think the tracking and the models are junked. As a CAT5 the behavior of this storm changes its track.

The models can't predict what the fastest-growing, most intense storm on record will do.

Sometimes it takes a bit of alchemy and gut instinct.
Caneman.....that link has the storm line going right over my house. Great..
Whew..we missed a bullet here in Cayman. Any chance of this thing going nort earlier than predicted?
lol coconut! You didn't know the glades were mountains?lol
Now they are talking about New England being at serious risk of taking a hit as the models are showing her maintain hurricane force through 5 days and the latest models are shifting left towards the end. Can you imagine New York or Boston taking a hit from a Cat 1 or Cat 2 storm, that would be a mess.
DOes anyone have a link to Joe bastardi update on accuweather? I cannot find it.
Solo I'm "C", but I was talking with a coworker yesterday, it doesn't really matter waht evac any of us are, the city would literally turn into an island temporarily the "E" zone surrounds the city of St. Pete.... Talk about relief efforts being hampered....*nervous laugh*
As to Lake Okeechobee. The water level is not low. We have had too much rain for that. They have been dumping water into the canals and to the ocean which is why both coasts have been having algae blooms. They say that some places aren't even safe to swim in because of these blooms. They have been trying to maintain a lower level but not flood the areas with fresh water.

A few weeks ago they said the levees could handle 90 mile an hour winds without problem if the lake was at a certain level. 72 mile an hour winds with the lake at 21 feet (I believe) The lake is lower than that right now. So, I hope that it is OK. They did predict if Lake O took a hit that it would not be like NO because they don't have the population around the lake like the NO area.

I have lots of friends who live in fish camps/trailer parks around the area. I just hope that they are smart enough to get out.
HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1130 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS BEGINNING NOON TODAY...
For all Floridians: I know someone has a blog showing everyone who posts at wunder. I have started a blog page to "register" the florida folks so we know where everyone is. Please list the town you are in, county, and location within the county (e.g., north central broward).
good idea coconut.
to register just click here....Link
Hey Pensacola 21 - glad to see you are back from vacation. Looks like maybe we are not in the "cone of doom" - at least not yet. I will never say never after this season.
Didn't a hurricane hitting a lake in FL kill 1,000 people years ago? I have been having hurricane nightmares lately so I could have dreamed that.
St. Petersburg, Southeast Pinellas
Dr. Masters

Thanks, but I'm wondering....Last night you hinted that all of the models would continue shifting south into the everglades and keys as the trend went all day yesterday. In this last post you again suggest a southward shift of the models is coming soon. Instead, the NHC has continued to shift the track more northward since last night. Who has the correct reasoning right now? And why??
telegon- your gut says Apalachee Bay? On what basis (not that I don't believe you- just wondering...)
Relax Pens21, we are fine here fortunately!! I agree Coco. There was a lot of the same sentiment here before Ivan. Guess some just have to live it to believe it. Glad you are one of the smart ones!! Come on up if you want to.
NOLAinNC... Yes, I can't remember the name
its been an unpredictable season.

but with the water temps the way they are, i don't see how it can sustain itself as a strong 4/5 as it rams into florida.

i may be wrong (hope i'm not, for FLA's sake) but I think it'll be around a mid to strong 3...maybe a weak 4 at most when it makes land fall.

which is nothing to sneeze at. ::gulp::
I did it for ya Coconut Creek :-)
Wow...

If you calculate the potential surge from this storm, and apply some conservative erosion numbers, it becomes all the more worthwile to hope it hits further north on the western edge of the peninsula.
Well I am in Okeechobee, I work for the telephone company, and if Wilma stays on track, I will be here at the office. I will try to setup my webcam, and may go and buy a cheap weather station at wally world and give updates as the office has a 24/7 standby generator. Just too bad I can't get one that measures wind speed.
Some of you know I'm not impressed with models -- especially after this season. I would like to know what would keep this thing from going west or southwest into Mexico??? I know the front is supposed to suck it up to the northeast, but will it happen before it slams Mexico?

I'm going to go out on a limb with this one and say Mexico then into the Pacific. I just can't see a storm of this size/strength making a dramatic turn like that.
Hi All
Been reading and lurking since Katrina. This is my first post. South St Lucie county here. Anyone here that this thing was suppose to exit at Jupiter?
wxwatcher That would be only too cool! However, I have to disagree with you. I just think that the models are too consistent here and the high will erode and open up the alley so to speak right to Florida. I hope to hell I'm wrong on this, really I do and not slamming your opinion, just seeing things from a different perspective.
The official NHC track is creeping North (left).
I just want to post a quick question to the board - In one of
yesterday's NHC discussions (at CAT 1), they made a mention
of seeing "the dreaded pinhole eye." The definition of this seems
straightforward, and in line with the comments made regarding
the eye of 2nm. My question: Why is this "dreaded"?
106. MIAWX
hurricane force winds have expanded from 15miles to 50 miles away from the center. not good!
I just want to post a quick question to the board - In one of
yesterday's NHC discussions (at CAT 1), they made a mention
of seeing "the dreaded pinhole eye." The definition of this seems
straightforward, and in line with the comments made regarding
the eye of 2nm. My question: Why is this "dreaded"?


Typically the smaller the eye, the more intense the storm.
Just remember that a cat 5 hurricane that weakens may still be holding a cat 5 storm surge when it makes landfall. Prayers for all!
Yeah caneman, the models were extremely consistant with Rita and in fact the NHC said it was their 'most confident forecast'. Look what happend.

It's hard to go against the models, but even the wx guy on fox this morning said that is a possibility, but the models are too consistant to mention it.

I dunno, lots of things are supposed to happen, we'll see what actually happens.
First, Raindancer, thanks for the link to winktv.. it helped tremendously in flood assessment.. it's bizarrely horrifying.

Second, I base my Apalachee Bay assessment on the wind shifts and a low pressure system moving east out of Texas.

Everyone's talking about the shear, and I think it bears noting.. it will affect the storm, but I don't think it will do so on the level current models suggest.

I don't see a large area of high pressure forcing Wilma easterly so dramatically or so rapidly. I see the low pressure system in TX now moving over the gulf and pulling Wilma up toward Apalachee bay mid to late Saturday.

Hope that's clear.
112. MrJ76
As to the hurricane that killed 1,836 offically (many believe it was closer to 5000 because of immigrants that were in the cane fields that were not part of the offical count), it was in 1928. The part of the lake that has to worry is the South Eastern side of the lake. The levy is very weak there. Infact, starting this winter, the ACoE is starting a huge repair project for that side of the levy. If there was a break at this point of the levy, it is expected to flood to as far as Wellington (this was the report as of last night on the local news, so take that with a grain of salt as they like to embrace the worst case senario). The lake right now as of today is 15.55 (here is the link Link). Alot of things would have to go right for the levy to break, but not impossible. However, I would not take the chance, and get my butt out of there.
Thanks Code- I have just been looking at the NHC track and it has shifted more Northward...
anyone have an estimate on the forward speed of Wilma at landfall?

wouldn't that essentially add to the wind speed?
I think that almost the entirely East Coast of the US will ultimately be affected, from New England to Florida...I still stick to the 2nd landfall in the Outer Banks and 3rd landfall around Delaware Bay, moving northward from there...I don't think it will drop below hurricane strength until it reaches 46N latitude on land, after 550 miles on land!
Business: predictions said 35mph across Florida
Ahhhh It's a little more north on track....
I remember reading about Katrina here.. for so long it was Panhandle panhandle, then, whammo.. New Orleans. New Orleans, as I recall was exposed really here, in this forum, much earlier than nationally.

If you look at the new maps, there's still about a 90 degree shift in a 24 hour period that I just don't see this storm making. Make it a 45 degree angle, and I'm agreeing.

It's going to come down to how fast or slow that low comes out of the Texas panhandle, and how much strength Wilma can maintain over the arguably cooler waters of the gulf.

As an aside, this is really fun to watch, guys.
120. MIAWX
interesting that the GFDL consistently shows the wind field diminishing to the north of Wilma and expanding to her south as she crosses florida. based on this, the worst would be south of the center, and by a good distance.
LilD, you sure you can't get out of there?
miawx, thats what I am worried about, I don't want to be on the south side of this thing!
Can someone please send me a link to the current models that are shifting north now?
124. MJH
How soon they forget. So confident on a track hey
remember Katrina or was that too long ago.

The nhc said the storm would curve north into western florida, if it even makes it into the gulf at all.

Oh it made it into the gulf and at that point they were saying all point east of the florida panhandle should watch out but the turn never came.

Then it was all points east of Pensacola, but it not have a chance to go any father west.

Storm still did not turn north.

Then it was watch out New Orleans.

This storm is big like Katrina and may push things around and stubbornly persist north indtead of going north east.
The Gulf couast needs to watch out.

As far as sst' with this monster, those deep water temperatures are more important and I dont believe the water has cooled much down deep.

Just because the NHC says what will happen. It still means maybe.
palmbeach,st lucie county here.. i agree.liked it more when it was coming in south of us
hi rx7evn neighbor...sorry I missed the answer about this again caneman...where's treasure coast?
Oh I will if its on track for us at a Cat 2 or higher, it'll just be the day before in all the crappy traffic :)
Hi all, new poster here with a question for the self-proclaimed experts. Can someone post about the expected storm surge for Wilma in comparison with Katrina and Rita...because she'll move quickly across the Gulf will this limit the storm surge? Thanks.
wunder where stormydee and lefty are?
or did i miss an earlier post or something.
anyway, stormchaser77 i have a question for you:

wilma was supposed to meander around for a
couple of days and then move... with the current
intensity and NW motion do you think the front
will pick her up so far south? kinda looks to me
she might "outrun" the front more north than thought.
Treasure coast is on the east coast of Fl. north of Palm Beach co.
Our local newspaper said we have no chance of getting hit! They said imagine throwing a doughnut at a brick wall.. lol... I hope you guys are preparing down there (once again)

But I am a little frightened...

Also, take a look at Ivan's track verification... It wasnt supposed to hit us either...
Floridians: I started a blog (click my screen name) for all of us to register our locations. Please put your county, city, and any other location info you want. Please post it in my blog (not here). I'll try to create a list by county by Friday.
stormydee is working she'll be back
Kerigan, I think Stormy has a bunch of work... She said her boss was in a bad mood...
today is the day to get ready folks! 21, hope your paper is right for your sake. Do you want to come down and visit for the weekend?lol
Treasure cost Link .
MandyFSU, NHC 5 day forcast has shifted left--slightly. It was mentioned in one of the 11am discussions. Gonna be interesting watching this thing's landfall creep up and down the state as the days go by.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200524_5day.html
sub, good to see you up and about!
Lefty is on his own blog. I think he got tired of all the mean posts (thankfully none today)
Hey Palm! Sorry I havent talked much... been catching up on work, ughrrr!! I had a good vacation.. We went to Kentucky for the PKC World Coon Hunt... We lost.. lol.. It was really beautiful and the weather was fantastic.. We stayed at this lodge on Kentucky Lake, just gorgeous (leaves changing, etc.)
my gosh newschannel 5 is in a Panic!
Thanks rxse..
what they saying palmbeacher
21, you were up twords my old stomping grounds. Glad you had a nice time. I am wondering if i can schedule a vacation for today through Monday. lol
lol Palm maybe I'll chase it!

You better get ready girl, this is gonna be a doozey
Wife and I will make a decision in the morning.
If it's projected to come over Jupiter as anything higher than a strong 2, we're outta here.

Probably would stay if we didn't have our 4 month old boy, but I'm not putting him through the risks associated w/ a major storm.
Beau: The power and speed of this storm in the latest models parallel surprisingly well with Katrina. Intellicast appears to be modeling their data from Kat's impact. Wherever she lands, surge may run conservatively in the 7-10 foot range.

Damage assessments are really difficult because Florida's southern topography is vastly different than the northern topography.
Does anybody see the trof/ midwest low tending more North than earlier predicted? Tropics pushing back - TD16E? Tampa is not out of the woods yet. Dja think?
Palm - You will Definately have a Vacation (of some kind)...
ldy, they are talking about it coming through my area at a 3 and the mayor saying be ready to be without power for atleast 5 days and if you leave do it tomorrow. Just on and on.
21, I fear it won't be a good vacation
Thanks palm and 21 and NOLA. Too
bad about lefty... don't know who that
one person was hurricane-something but
(said they were no longer going to post)
darn near wrote a thesis to lefty.
trick or treat? I'm thinking trick... this has to be a trick?
The trochoidal motion-- inherent in the RX-7s rotary engine :D -- makes it look like the overall motion just shot SW in the last frame here:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html

http://www.rotaryengineillustrated.com/animations.php
Latest IR imagery would appear to indicate Wilma is not looking as healthy now. I'm also beginning to think Wilma may get closer to the Yucatan pennisula than originally thought - perhaps close enough to make landfall and significantly weaken.
already called dad in chicago and told him if they say we'll be without power for a week or more after it goes through i'm taking a roadtrip
160. code1
palmbeacher....GO CATS! Where in KY?
insult to injury its pouring north of me on the Treasure coast. localized flooding. They don't need that now.
See, 77- that's what I was thinking too... I think it's their way of saying they aren't trusting the models... but that's just my opinion...
good info and disccussions in my blog. lots of us over there and all are wlecome. stop by and say high

lefty's blog
code1, actually i am from Ohio, but right across the river from Ashland Ky. and yes a big CATS fan! We always went to Ky when I was a teenager, more fun over there!
Hi palmbeacher (and everybody). Yes I'm up, but define "about". 8-)
166. code1
Even at Big Bend, we would be on the "good" side pens21. Don't freak yet, hope I don't live to eat crow!
Everything is starting to close down here in the Keys. Courthouses shut down Thursday - Monday, Schools closed Thursday, Friday...

Hopefully can persuade my boss to shut the office down Friday...
Why is Dean freaking out, Palmbeacher
Paml Beacher

You live in Huntington, WV? That's where I'm from.
170. code1
Pikeville here, small world :)
hey everybody, dania beach currently waiting for wilma, and im origannally from Barboursville WV. Small world to have so many West Virginians on here.
I am in Hobe Sound, definitely wathing the effect this could have on the treaasure coast. Hope we are on the south side of this storm on the East Coast of Florida. The north side of this storm on the east coast could have ocean moisture blown back in towards it.
I don't know why Dean is flipping! The mayor is too! and
I am from about 20 minutes from Huntington. What a small
world we live in!
subtropic, about- moving around? being functional?
176. MIAWX
wow, i've never seen an eye wobbling so much, it almost seems like it's rotating around a larger circulation. wonder if tomorrow at this time we'll have a big eye.
I grew up in Huntington, but live in the Keys now...you goto B'ville HS cornflake? what year?
Does anyone think the SST close to FL is cool enough to cause a drop off in intensity? What about the windshear?

I'm interested in anyone's comments on these two pheonomena
i ahv updated my blog with some brief forecast changes
cane - At this time of the year, I think the cooler SST's and definitely the westerlies will have a definite weakening impact on Wilma. Historically, all late season storms begin to die down pretty quickly once they hit 25 degrees north. Wilma has been impressive, but she's also in perhaps the most perfect spot in the Atlantic basin for supporting a strong storm. Soon, she will leave that spot...
182. MIAWX
seems to me that it is common for hurricanes (even major ones) to make hard right turns. usually though this happens as they recurve in the Bermuda area (rotating around the subtropical high). So i don't see why a hard right turn won't happen here.
How much do you think the westerlies can shave off Wilma's wind speed?
New GFS shows extreme S FL hit
hey everyone. :-)
Im back...so many decisions to make!!!!
I look for Cantore to go to west coast, and one of his counterparts to set up shop on my driveway.
I just finished 5 weeks helping the animals in Mississippi. I have one comment for everyone in Florida!! Please evacuate EARLY and TAKE YOUR ANIMALS WITH YOU!!! Please, Please, Please for all your sakes. Head north, the fall leaves are terrific this time of the year!!!

Cantore's like the weather equivalent of Geraldo Rivera sometimes..

Can't help but like him though.
How do you get your mother-in-law north of vero on east coast to get out of her mobile home when she beleives the storm will be to weak to cause damage to her home?
Keep in mind she lost the sunroom, carport and part of her roof in Jeanne. This damage was just repaired last month.
Well guys......it looks like im going to get another shot at chasing a storm....im here in orlando....be heading to south florida early saturday morning.....
gotta love Jim, just don't want him anywhere near my house!lol
well...The decision has been made......No Bike Fest in Daytona for me. Dont like camping in the rain and riding in it even less.
I lived through Andrew and it blew my roof away and I am lucky to be alive. Wilma is weird and may not follow the script. The Everglades would not slow down a hurricane much, it is mostly water and very little vegetation above the water. Sometimes when we get tornadoes in summer they come in from the south west around everglades city and exit south of Fort Lauderdale. This is the pattern that Dr Masters was describing for this hurricane. That would put Miami in the right side of the storm. Luckily, Katrina did a good job as a tree trimmer, but there will be a lot of destruction. We need prayrs.
whats up mandyfsu..........go noles.......weve got to get rid of Jeff Bowden....im sorry he sucks.........but what a hurricane
198. MIAWX
Flhurricanechaser, scary the GFS shifted a bit south. is that the 06z or 12z run you are looking at and does it have it going south of Naples?
NHC is currently predicting a 15-20 ft. storm surge from Wilma. I may have been overly conservative with it. Sorry.
Thanks, Telegon.
PalmBeacher, if Wilma stays on track, what day are you boarding up the windows?
jimjax, ever been to the cabbage patch in Daytona?
And I am glad you decided to cancel your trip. Smart
move.
So stormchaser77, you seeing parallels with my Apalachee bay forecast?
gainsville, most of the FPL employees (my boyfriend) get tomorrow off to prepare their homes. So, probably then. Also have my mothers house and my brothers since he is flying to Vegas today. Lucky him! lol
hey weatherboyfsu... Something needs to be done, for sure. I sure wish I had a crystal ball and knew where this thing was going. I don't know whether to be relieved or to fret that the models are wrong.
Armchair, google some of the 911 audio and transcripts from Katrina. They are chilling. Read them to your mother-in-law. I called mine on Sunday before Katrina crying into the phone that she needed to get out. She did but it took her 12 hours to go 100 miles.
Telegon- you still sticking by the Panhandle forecast? :-)
Palmbeacher
hit the patch every time in Datona. love the place
You ride??
weatherboy, why don't you take Jeffs job? I am sure
you'll do a better job. He sucks! When you come south
where are you going?
210. dcw
She's definetly weakening, probably down to a Cat 4 by next advisory with the EWC, maybe re-attain Cat 5 after?
211. TPaul
Anybody else notice that the eye looks like its rotating around a central point?
jimjax, wish I did! Stayed at that campground for the Daytona 500 a few years ago. I had a blast at that place.
My name is under the bar on the corner where it comes together.
come on shear come on shear come on shear...........rip that wicked storm apart!
caneman, I sure hope that works!
215. MIAWX
Tpaul, i definitely see it rotating around a center point. that's why i'm wondering if by tomorrow at this time we'll have a large eye.
Palm
It gets really wild with 100,000 bikers in town.
Should try to check it out sometimne
I am supposed to be flying into tampa airport sat. So I am on the phone right now with US air trying to change my flight and the hold time is unbeleivable. I guess everyone has the same idea. At least the majority of people are trying to fly out and not in like me.

Im in pittsburgh right now, way to far from home and by the time I fly in I still have to go 2 hours up I75 to ge thome. Which I fear right now will be more of an 8 hour drive with everyone trying to get out of dodge in s. fla.

Watching the forecast move more north now...not looking good for tampa airports flights!
(i wanna come home now!)
Its the 12Z that shows the S FL hit.
armchairweatherguy do what nola said. Your mother-in-law should evacuate the mobile home.

You can tell her that Jeanne over 100 mph stayed on the water side, Vero got all below 90 I believe, and she saw the damage. Also tell her to revisit the barefoot bay area mobile home north of her, some did well, others totally destroyed homes at 80 mph, depends on the manufacturer I believe, and no time to test that.

Also, with Jeanne, there was minimal chance for tornadoes, when the hurricane comes from the west, large amount of tornadoes can form, and you know those go looking for mobile homes at 200MPH.
The big question is, where do you go? My wife and I live on South Beach, and we have friends in Coral Springs, far closer to the track at the moment, and much further west. Her folks live on a boat.



emergency news conference from Tally on now.
Even if I did still leave Friday morning and somehow got lucky....coming home Sunday night will mean I'd be home Tuesday or later...I95 yuck yuck!!!
:(
Info Specific For InDian River Co, relavent for St Lucie, Martin & Palm Beach
From Indian River Co EOC Director Nathan McCollum:
... As you can tell by the humidity level this morning, the ridge has already broken down over Florida. Therefore, Wilma will continue moving north as the forecast continues to verify very well. The best guess on landfall intensity along the west coast of Florida is somewhere around 100mph to 120mph at this time. The wind field with Wilma is hurricane force winds 50 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds 160 miles from the center.
The following forecast information is subject to change depending on model runs tonight, but it is time to discuss impacts to our area. For our area, we should be preparing for a wind event of 70mph-90mph beginning Saturday night into Sunday morning. The winds will begin increasing late Saturday afternoon as Hurricane Wilma moves east. The wind estimates may be lower if Wilma moves south of Palm Beach County. If this forecast verifies, Indian River County Emergency Management will be opening protective shelters Saturday and some limited evacuations may be needed. Rainfall estimates are 6" to 8", but this will be a fast moving storm and rainfall will not be as long as with other storms.The wind field map shows the "best guess" estimates for landfall on Saturday.

Indian County Residents should begin some preparations for this storm. The first thing everyone should do is remove all Halloween decorations from your lawns and outside your home. Even with minimal tropical storm force winds, these decorations could cause damage and/or hazardous driving conditions throughout the county. Residents should be securing all of your in home supplies such as non-perishable foods, medications, water, personal items, etc. Window protection is not suggested at this time, but we may change that statement tomorrow (Thursday). Everyone should make adequate plans for supplies they will need if power was out for 3-5 days. Final decisions on protective actions will be announced tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon
.Read Full Entry
jimjax, I will, just not this year!lol
maybe next. Seems like alot of fun.
palmbeacher, whats he saying??? Update me, please I have no TV or radio here....
The lunchtime news said they have some good news and bad. The good news is that it should be moving pretty quickly by the time it gets to us. The bad news is that if it is moving so quickly, it wont have time to weaken.

Good Grief!
I stand solidly by my forecast - the slowdown on the turn north northwesterly in the 11 AM supports my forecast.

Worthy to note, a 15-20 foot storm surge ALONE will put most of the state under water. I advise leaving now.

Seriously. Infrastructural concerns alone should bother most southern Floridians. If this thing stays on NOAA's track and swaths through the state, I think everything's in jeopardy. It's not like we have the most available manpower to assist in the storm cleanup.

I'm trying to find numbers on how long it took to drain the swamps that are now the state in the first place. It kind of changes the perspective on what it took to drain NOLA...
saying, south Fl. will be hit moving across eastern so. Fl. today is the day to be prepared. Red cross is getting ready They are not taking this lightly. and they keep going on and on about getting prepared.
Limey - go north. I'd recommend nothing south of Atlanta.
The only good thing about a northward shift in the track is cooler water and more time will allow Wilma to weaken more before landfall. Still gonna be a crappy day in Florida on Saturday.
wpb, thats what they are saying now, about it going fast but, staying strong.
armchairweatherguy, did you see my post. Current For Vero Beach.
I'm from Vero Beach. Is she From one of the Parks off SR60??
It depends of course on where and how strong wilma will be....I got news for people.......two things.....the everglades is like the ocean and wilma will most likely booking it......she will be as almost as strong when she leaves as she will when she makes landfall......this be across the state in 4-6 hours....i mean moving......so its going to be very tricky......I know i will come down the turnpike....be near you....just depends....
comparing to Charley, but being bigger. Not the track of Charley but the way Charley hit.
telegon, where exactly are you predicting the storm comes ashore?
I going to need some eyes on the radar for me....I will also stop at stores until i find one with a tv and i will watch the radar....to make my determinations....i will be back later....
Monroe county schools closed tomorrow and Friday.
That is the keys for those of you not in Fl.
Sing for me:
Should I stay or should I go now?
If I go there will be trouble
An if I stay it will be double
So come on and let me know
Should I stay or should I go?
239. kingy
this thing will curve further north in time, I just wonder whether panic driving north could be the worst move right now?
what's up with the 175 MPH though? Katrina, Rita, and Wilma.. 902, 897, and 881 pressures.. All 3 of these should of had winds of like 190. Yet, the NHC seems stuck on 175.. Especially Wilma.. 881 and 175?? That seems quite low for the winds.
Stormy, flip a coin?
Does anyone know of links to animated gifs of Wilma at her peak last night? I know they would obviously be infrared views but I would be curious to see one as she rapidly intensified yesterday evening and night.
Yes palmbeacher, reminds me of Charley as well. Charley also had a tiny eye, but this is just ludicrously tiny.
stormydee, portstlucie, right?
I'm sure you've seen this, but just in case:
Wilma Landfall Trajectory 10/19PM

Having Frances/Jeanne Flashbacks Myself.
coastie - Apalachee bay with the eye ashore in Taylor county.
Hi, it's Chicken Little here (just poking fun at myself). I think if you are within 150 miles of the projected path (east or west coast) and you have the means, you should strongly consider getting out (WAY out - like Atlanta, Birmingham, Greenville and points north) Especially if you are on medication, have young children or elderly relatives. Damage from Katrina was FAR reaching - we should learn from her and get out of harm's way, even if it is inconvenient, expensive, or time consuming. Please be safe!!
FlCrackergirl
St Lucie here. Saw that earlier and it's not looking good for us here
Kingy, if you leave now.. and I mean, within 2 hours, you will make it to Atlanta by midnight. You will be safe.
telegon,

Just curious, but what makes you think she'll go that far north?
Afternoon everyone..
stormydee are you considering evacuation? I am south county border on the beach, now getting worried..
telegon - you don't think the trough will make the storm turn as east as being forcasted?
Not saying she's weak, but she does look a little weaker. Not so high cold cloud tops...I think she may be done peaking....I noticed yesterday, she had very warm waters and that could explain her overnight blowup, but with the predicted windshear and the fact the waters are cooling from her stirring...I think she has hit her strongest point and its all weakening from here on out.......is it wishful thinking?
NOLAinNC -

I hope that people are heeding your advice. This is scary in all aspects, but unfortunately...where do you go if you can't leave soon? I am afraid most of us are on the 'wait and see'...but then will it be too late??

Hey FLCrackerGirl - we're neighbors...
JEFF - ANOTHER Record CONFIRMED
Center meteorologist Hugh Cobb said Wilma Set the record for the most rapid strengthening ever recorded in a hurricane. And Yes that Accounts for WIND and MB's.

Snowily - The Snowman
SC77, I see what your saying and value your input. A lot of it will depend on timing.
Hydro, I was leaving for Vacation to VA Friday afternoon...but with the evacuations, I95 is gonna be bad Friday and then Sunday when Im coming home....
So if I don't go to VA, I'll be here, standing in the element with my wind gauge and posting on here as long as I have power.
259. dcw
No, what happened last night was Pinhole eye+ideal conditons+diurnal maximum. If she can hold her eye (which is either collapsing or contracting more [?!!!???!!]) until early tomarrow morning...I shudder to think what she could become.
260. dcw
Tornado, where have you been! If you were ever serious about working with me on forecasting, NOW is the time to be there!

Link
Does anyone have a link giving the SST's for the southern Gulf?
verobeach, its always a wait and see and you are right after wait, it's to late. If I were on the west coast I would be leaving. I am going to stay home and hope for
the best.
StormyDee,

I think The Clash's "Armageddon Time" is more appropriate :D

B
coastie & kittreb: I'm betting on a low sitting over the TX panhandle right now pulling Wilma northward. I'm also betting on a weaker wind shear, and am banking on the deeper water temps rather than the cooler surface temps, which play a bigger role in larger storms.

We'll see though. A lot has to go my way. Look for a stall in the turn in the next cycle.

ok just got informed from property manager for office building they have no shuters. now my office is on the beach in Vero beach. you'd think after last year they would have wisened up..anyone have any extra plywood
267. MJH
Pan handle needs to watch out. These turns have come late if they ever come.
268. MJH
I dont think the models are taking into the account that the storm itself is a lrger factor than the external environment.
I love the clash reference...very appropriate....how about it's the end of the world as we know and I feel fine.
FLcracker - i used vero as a point of reference assuming most bloggers were not local. She is in Micco, Snug Harbor, just waiting to get smacked again.

Wilma, despite missing cross over cuba is similar to Charley. I slight shift in path makes a big difference in landfall point now that she is not a perpendicular to the state in path. I like the weakening theory now that path is becoming more parallel. Remember Charley dipped south at the last minute when it was planned to hit near tampa.
Howdy VeroBeachNative! I'm a Neighbor & A VB Native Too.
(Born in the Old Hospital/Now Co Administrative Bldg.)

Frances/Jeanne Survivors, You think Wilma coming in from the west will Blow/Bend The Trees Here Straight Again?? LOL
ldyavalon, send someone to Home Cheapot
273. dcw
Who wants to live chat?

ME!

Then click. Here.
lol flcrackergirl. That would be great to have straight trees again.
telegon, don't bet on weaker wind shear Link show Sat Winds...look how strong they will? She's gonna haul butt....
This just it:

Sorry, a lot to read, but important for those of you in So Fl.


Expires 5:00 PM EDT on October 19, 2005

Statement as of 1:25 PM EDT on October 19, 2005


... Interests in South Florida should closely monitor extremely dangerous Hurricane Wilma...

Category five Hurricane Wilma located in the northwestern Caribbean Sea about 600 miles south of South Florida at 11 am is moving west northwest around 7 mph. Wilma is forecast to move across the Yucatan Channel early Friday morning... then begin to turn northeast over the southern Gulf of Mexico later on Friday ahead of a low pressure
trough moving east across the central and southeastern United states. The hurricane is then forecast to ccelerate toward South Florida on Saturday.

Based on the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center... Wilma could be making landfall on the southwest Florida coast as early as Saturday afternoon and move northeast across the South Florida peninsula Saturday evening. Although some weakening is forecast as Wilma approaches... it is still expected to be a dangerous hurricane as it moves across the area.

The exact path and strength of Wilma as it approaches South Florida are still highly uncertain. Residents of South Florida are advised to closely monitor advisories and statements issued by the National Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service office in Miami in case watches or warnings become necessary Thursday and Friday.

South Floridians are strongly urged to once again go over their hurricane plans and restock on provisions such as...

batteries for radios and flashlights
drinking water
canned or dried food
first aid supplies
prescription medicine
Cash... credit cards and atm's may not work without power
fuel for automobiles... generators and chain saws.

Preparations to protect life and property may need to be initiated over all of South Florida during the day on Thursday... especially if and when a watch is issued.

For the latest information regarding Hurricane Wilma... please stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and media outlets to monitor the latest statements..as well as possible watches and warnings... from the National Weather Service office in Miami.
MJH, You are the third person to say this. What do you all know that the NHS doesn't?
sorry, referenced the clash song for my own personal reasons :-)
wish i could palmbeacher. this is a new real estate office and i am the only agent so far.haha. well weather alert just came up saying st lucie will have road flooding and water retention ponds will be full in 2 hours..
Thanks sub.
FLCrackerGirl -

How neat is that - I was born there too...probably one of the last though! My mom tells me how the roof was leaking while she was waiting to deliver me....scary to think they use that as the county admin building!

There definitely a lot of trees left that still need "straightening"! Way to stay positive! LOL
CAN ANYONE EXPLAIN WHATS UP WITH THE GFDL?????
armchairweatherguy, damage in micco was unbelieveable last year.Snug Harbor was essentially a debris field. (even parts of US HWY #1 went into the river). Snug Harbor is Really too close to the river there. Have Friends in Grant (up the road from micco/on river). They'll ride out a Cat1 but if a Cat2 is more likely, they'll move west of town with other friends.
good afternoon room....I think the GFDL has had too much to drink lol
funny FLCrackergirl...I wish so, I look across the street facing south and all the trees bend west...they need to blow east to straighten them up. LOL
BTW - that statement was from our local NWS office (MIA), not the NHC.
How about "Rock You Like A Hurricane" by the Scorpions...
VBNATIVE, County Building STILL Leaks (yuck). Some Co Employees have Sick Building Syndrome.
I go with 77... this storm's a freak. Looked like on the IR it intensified right after the 4 AM run so 25.95 or even lower.

Oh, and fsu, please keep jeff and maybe daddy b. will bring tommy down there too! Still don't know how you lost the va. game.
Has anyone noticed that the GFDL model has shift from a landfall point near fort myers to cuba? I also think that the pressure is still falling and this storm could reach sustained winds of 190-200mph+. I am going to predict a land fall point between Fort Myers and Tampa.
UM HELLO WHATS UP WITH THE GFDL?????


Image hosted by Photobucket.com


Eye of a hurricane, listen to yourself churn
(Same REM song)
I think the hurricane hunters are going to find a higher pressure, maybe lesser winds. It appears on infrared that the cloud tops have warmed a little, the eye implosion is probably happening. Theres no way it can keep that 2nm eye forever. In visible satellite the eye appears to get cloudy on the floater. We will see.
I'll bet Lefty was up all night watching this one.
tormydee, portstlucie, right?
I'm sure you've seen this, but just in case:
Wilma Landfall Trajectory 10/19PM

Having Frances/Jeanne Flashbacks Myself.


That just sent a cold chill into my heart.
I know i was
FLCrackerGirl - maybe I will rethink the application I was getting ready to submit to the County.....hmmmm.....
hey dude65, missed ya yesterday, really....some guy was acting like you...well, not really, but I thought it was you and it ended up being a troll...
HI :-)
Go shear go........go shear go.........

man I gotta grasp something!
Hello again,

Here is a pretty impressive water vapor animation from the Global Hydrology and Climate center. Watch Wilma just explode. Place the frames at least at 10, but 12 is better, then animate. WOWLink
Yes lefty was up all night. Of course, If I was sleeping like I should have been, I wouldn't know that.
Dee: to put it shortly, they think she'll move in ahead of the trough, I'm saying she's so big she'll ride the trough northerly.
go shear goooooo go shear goooooooo

gotta hang onto something right?
Hey all, I'm back (lunchbreak! Anyone want a taco? LOL)

The models are getting closer and closer together huh?
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
141 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

VALID 12Z SAT OCT 22 2005 - 12Z WED OCT 26 2005

EXTREMELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST ALONG ATL
SEABOARD...UNFORTUNATELY WHERE IMPACT FROM WEATHER SYSTEMS IS
GREATEST. TRACK OF WILMA HAS PROVEN TO BE A CHALLENGE...WITH 15Z
OFFICIAL FORECAST ALMOST IMMEDIATELY PUT INTO THE DARK SHADOW OF
THE 12Z GFS. MORNING UPDATE FOR WILMA WAS INFLUENCED HEAVILY BY
06Z GFS...WHICH SHOWED ACCELERATION OF HURRICANE UP AND AROUND ERN
PERIPHERY OF VORTEX CLOSING OFF OVER GREAT LAKES. DAY 5 POINT WAS
CONSIDERABLY CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND THAN EARLIER OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN FINAL MANUAL PROGS. BUT ALONG
CAME THE 12Z GFS...WHICH SLOWED WILMAS DEPARTURE FROM THE
SUBTROPICS TREMENDOUSLY. FURTHERMORE...WHOLE ORIENTATION OF UPPER
TROF OVER ERN US LOOKS DIFFERENT ON LATEST GFS...WITH MORE OF A N
TO S AXIS VS W TO E FROM THE 00Z RUN. DECISION TO USE 00Z GFS FOR
THE PRELIM PROGS WAS BASED LARGELY ON ITS GOOD CONTINUITY AND
STRONG RESEMBLANCE TO ITS ENSMEAN...WHICH STILL SOUND ATTRACTIVE
...ESP IN LIGHT OF MORE RECENT MODEL VOLATILITY. SO...COURSE OF
LEAST REGRET WAS TO STICK WITH EARLIER NOTIONS AND HOPE THAT
MODELS SETTLE DOWN ONCE BURGEONING VORTEX MAKES UP ITS MIND AS TO
ITS INTENTIONS.
im pretty sure via the infrared the cloud tops are warming a little. I wonder what the real top strength of this beast was. It seems almost unreal.
LMAO Caneman
309. dcw
Hey Stormchaser. Did You Pay Attention In High School English? Or Do You Just Read The Paper Too Much?
Robb: Sounds like they're a little worried huh? Don't really know what's going on.

Using a little "BASIC SYNOPTIC REASONING" are they?

lol
the hurricane center said that long range models see wilma turning north after florida..he said the way the season could get worse is an impact on New England...what impact could it have on the mid atlantic and NE....last week a similar set up without the hurricane brough tons of rain and heavy winds to NYC and NE....wat could this same set up do with Wilma involed....catastrophy?
Sounds like they put all the models for the last day on a board and threw a dart. ;-)
313. dcw
Wheres the 2pm?
The intermediates are usually right on time, not early like the regular advisories are.
2pm Link
hopefully soon i keep refreshing my screen
317. dcw

...Wilma weakens slightly...

at 2 PM EDT...1800z...the Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch
for the Cayman Islands has been discontinued.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from San Felipe to Tulum on
the Yucatan Peninsula...including Cozumel and nearby islands. A
hurricane is also in effect for Swan Island.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from south of Tulum to
Chetumal Mexico.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the East Coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula from south of Tulum to Punta gruesa.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Belize from the border
with Mexico southward to Belize City.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect in Cuba for the provinces of
Matanzas westward through Pinar del Rio...and for the Isle of
Youth.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Honduras from the
Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Cabo camaron.

All interests in the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should
closely monitor the progress of extremely dangerous Hurricane Wilma.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 2 PM EDT...1800z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located
near latitude 17.5 north... longitude 83.5 west or about 300
miles... 480 km... southeast of Cozumel Mexico.

Wilma is wobbling around an average motion toward the west-northwest
near 7 mph ...11 km/hr. A turn toward the northwest is expected
during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph...270 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Wilma is a potentially catastrophic category five hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common
in hurricanes of this intensity...and are likely during the next 24
hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles... 85 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 160 miles...260 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 900 mb...26.58 inches. An
Air Force aircraft will be in the center of Wilma shortly to
provide a direct measure of the central pressure.

Wilma is expected to produce storm total accumulations of 10 to 15
inches...with local amounts near 25 inches in mountainous terrain
across Cuba through Friday. Additional rainfall accumulations of 5
to 10 inches...with local amounts of 15 inches...are possible
across the Cayman Islands...Swan Island...and Jamaica through
Thursday. Storm total accumulations of 4 to 6 inches...with
isolated amounts of 8 to 12 inches...are possible from Honduras
northward to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through Thursday.

Repeating the 2 PM EDT position...17.5 N... 83.5 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 7 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...165 mph. Minimum central pressure... 900 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 PM EDT.

Forecaster Franklin


$$

And yet here it is :D
nevermind here it is
Of course since I just posted that

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

...WILMA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO TULUM ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND NEARBY ISLANDS. A
HURRICANE IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO
CHETUMAL MEXICO.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER
WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 83.5 WEST OR ABOUT 300
MILES... 480 KM... SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS WOBBLING AROUND AN AVERAGE MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON
IN HURRICANES OF THIS INTENSITY...AND ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 900 MB...26.58 INCHES. AN
AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE CENTER OF WILMA SHORTLY TO
PROVIDE A DIRECT MEASURE OF THE CENTRAL PRESSURE.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND JAMAICA THROUGH
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE FROM HONDURAS
NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...17.5 N... 83.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...165 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 900 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.
Just as i suspected, millibars up, wind slightly down
Yesterday I noticed a "perfect storm" scenario (okay not exactly, but similar) in one of the models. Now three by my count have Wilma interacting with an upper level low and associated fronts just off the New England coast and then slamming ashore. Given the possibility of an everglades landfall (as good a place for a major hurricane to hit land as there is) could the real disaster in the making be in New England?
322. dcw
HA I was first! HAHAHAHA!

*victory dance*
I know this isn't to reasonable, but I have a question for those who know.

Look at Jupiter, it has several (most noteable is the Red Spot) storms that are so powerful they self sustain and dont disapate...

Not specificly with Wilma, but could that potentially happen here? Its already been said she is showing signs like a tornado rather than a hurricane, and look at how fast she grew... What if Wilma didn't go away? What if she became strong enough to self sustain?

Maby I should stick to technology and astronomy, but this thought occured to me after watching Wilma last night and today... You never know, she is rather wierd gal isnt she?
ok stormydee about the trip...lol I thought you were looking at planned evacuation north. Have a safe trip if you o, safe stay if you don't. btw, I-95 next to Virginia/Richmond is busy like evacuation everyday..;)
Mandy, so true that reasoning they do..
21 - Please send me a taco...Yummy! :-)
ANd keep up the chanting Caneman, go blow her away...it seemed to work with me and Ophelia :-)
Stormy...yesterday was pretty busy here. I found out about the troll last night on leftyys blog. Hate it when someone tarnishes my name lol
Hi to you too :-)
^ on the above, I mean, not Wilma, but any hurricane or storm in general...

Im glad Wilma has weakened, but the shows not over till the fat lady sings.
I told ya she's already peaked and done peaking now... :-)
floridafox, lol at myself, I was thinking Jupiter, Fl. Duh
now i get it! Having a blonde moment.
When you get the chance, can you guys go to this link and add your location to the map? Just something I'm adding to my blog.

Thanks.Link
>>I told ya she's already peaked and done peaking now... :-)

I thought female storms can peak several times unlike the male storms. *smirk*
destiny, I expect my location may be several hundered yards farther east than it is right now if the storm takes the projected path. I'll just wait and see where I land!
Destiny - That is a really cool map! BTW - my little girl's name is Destiny!
Just a friendly reminder to post any hurrciane related links to my blog Link
..catch up after lunch
lol subtropic if you fly by me say hi!
Hi All,
I've been lurking for a while and know absolutely nothing about the weather unless I step outside. I remain interested in hurricanes due to my location. I checked this site throughout Katrina and Rita (while I still had power).

With Wilma, I have been checking the LSU Earth Science Laboratory site. The computer model shows two projections into the western Gulf toward the Bay of Campeche. I'm sure these are being disregarded. I hope everyone is correct this time.

We did not receive the official word about Katrina until Saturday. I monitored this site and watched the models move slowly to the west and started calling friends in New Orleans and Slidell. This site seems to give better information than others. After everything Louisiana has been through this year, we don't need another storm. I just hope Wilma diminishes in strength before landfall. To all in her path, I send my thoughts and prayers. I send my deepest appreciation to all on this site who offer their expertise and thoughts on these storms. It helps more than you will ever know.
You KNOW I will palmbeacher!
LMAO I was thinking about Jupiter, Fl at first.

Fox, a hurricane could perhaps self sustain forever given it 1) never makes a prolonged landfall 2) has constant supply of relatively warm sea water 3) never encounters shear bad enough to tear it apart.

So while some storms have lasted a month, they all eventually succumb to one of the factors mentioned above. They make landfall, they travel north and hit colder waters, or conditions change that weaken and destroy the closed circulation. Not to mention that winter is inevitable. So in this case, no.
340. dcw
Ummm...Destiny? Why is it in Alaska?
Destiny,

Nice addition
FloridaFox 7, where in Pensacola are you located?
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE WILMA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.5N
83.5W...OR 260 NM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO...AT 19/1800 UTC MOVING
WNW 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY
TO 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 900 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
WILMA'S SATELLITE REPRESENTATION PEAKED AT AROUND 1200 UTC (WHEN
THE RECORD-LOW PRESSURE OF 882 MB WAS REPORTED BY AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE DROPSONDE DATA) BUT SINCE THEN THE CLOUD TOPS
HAVE COOLED AND THE CONVECTIVE SPIRAL BANDS HAVE BEEN EXPANDING
OUTWARD AWAY FROM THE CENTER. THIS BY NO MEANS INDICATES THAT
WILMA IS WEAKENING. IN FACT...THE HURRICANE MAY BE GOING THROUGH
AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE SINCE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL
RING OF DEEP CONVECTION ABOUT 15 NM FROM THE EYE...AND
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM OUT AND COILING
INWARD TOWARDS THE CENTER. A 1359 UTC SSMIS PASS SHOWS A LARGE
RING OF CONVECTION SURROUNDING A MOAT...WHICH ITSELF ENCIRCLES A
SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION AT THE CENTER. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION EXTENDS ABOUT 100 NM FROM THE CENTER. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED ELSEWHERE IN SPIRAL BANDS
FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN 78W-88W. THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE WATERS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN (INCLUDING
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS)...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD SLOWLY NWD ACROSS CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS WILMA
LIFTS TO THE N.
344. dcw
1. Great Red Spot is cold-core

2. Jupiter's axis tilts by like .3 degrees

3. There is no land
Destiny, What is a "shoutout?"
Coastie, 9 Mile road. Moving on the 31st to Mobile though.
FF7, I work off Airport new Palafox. You're not too far.
348. KnD
I'm from Homestead Florida. So.. should I take my Haloween Decorations down??
NOLAinNCL:

URBAN DICTIONARY definition.
Watching from the airport in Philly waiting for my flight back to Jacksonville. Have invited the Sarasota relatives to come northeast for the weekend. New to this blog -- very informative and interesting. Will stick around for awhile and (not to wish the worst for my many friends the my south)hope the northeast Florida luck holds out for another year...
What is up with the latest 17:40 UTS GFDL. Shows Wilma stalling over the Yucatan then moving ESE then ENE off the Coat of Cuba during the end of the forcast period.
352. MJH
There is no accurate projected path right now for outside of a couple days. This storm can still go anywhere. Naming spots more than three days out is ridiculous. This storm does not have a mid range projected path that is reliable. It could be thousands of miles off.
could wilma move into the atlantic then shift back NWard and slam in NYC or just South in NJ cause massiv flooding and storm serge in Lower Manhattan?
354. dcw
KnD...dress up as a hurricane refugee :D
LOL Robb :-)
Thx Will. I'm getting old.
My brother is planning of flighing down to ft. lauderdale today for an interview tomorrow. Should he stay in Raleigh, NC? We live in WPB. What should he do?
358. dcw
So:

Wilma hits Cuba as Cat 5
Then Florida as Cat 3
Then NE as the Perfect Storm Jr?
This is scary. perhaps the GFDL thinks the trof will not be strong enough to pick up Wilma. Insight please!!!
fsustormnut, if you live in Wpb why is he flying to Ft. Laud? Its not that far of a drive.
361. MJH
The only true safe place is away from the coast anywhere in the gulf coast. The whole gulf coast needs to stay updated and be prepared.
Does anyone know how I can find out what the max sustained winds in Cape Coral, FL during Hurricane Charley?
I don't know what's up with the gfdl. It kinda looks like someone accidentally input their grocery list when they were entering the data.
Concerning Jupiter (the planet), having an MS in astronomy, this is a myth I often have to dispell (a myth that NASA sometimes helps in propagating because their PR people sometimes don't know their stuff). Jupiter's Great Red Spot, which has sustained itself for at least 300+ years, is a HIGH pressure region. It rotates counter-clockwise, but is in Jupiter's southern hemisphere. It is not like a hurricane at all. If you want to compare the Great Red Spot to something on Earth, you'd have to try the Bermuda high that builds in the Atlantic for long periods of time. There are many other systems, however, such as many of the white ovals and brown ovals, that actually are cyclones instead of anticyclones, and these last sometimes as long as decades. Of course, Jupiter has a rotation period of 10 hours compared to Earth's 24 hours, so you have a far more powerful Coriolis force.
Man, I was hoping we could find Fred so he could call Wilma home, but he isn't due out till 2009, darnit Link
366. MIAWX
where do you all see a graphic of this latest GFDL model?
sub, someone said earlier that it looked like
it had to much to drink, thinking they were right.
sub,

I hope you are correct! Here in Ft. Walton we have seen enough the past two years. I will not feel safe until Wilma is NE of us.
MAIWX,

Here http://skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=24. it is cut off the buttom on the WXUndergrond models page.
LATEST GFDL ERROR OR CHANGE?
371. KnD
SE Fl has had a rough season. I've had so many days off, I'm worried they will extend the school year.
BwanaDogSWFL -

have you checked www.nhc.noaa.gov - they have archived info on past storms. You may be able to find it there. Hope this helps!
373. dcw
Recon:

000
URNT12 KNHC 191822
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/18:06:20Z
B. 17 deg 24 min N
083 deg 23 min W
C. 700 mb 2149 m
D. 75 kt
E. 29 deg 008 nm
F. 111 deg 128 kt
G. 023 deg 002 nm
H. EXTRAP 894 mb
I. 12 C/ 3058 m
J. 20 C/ 3028 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C4
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 0824A WILMA OB 11
MAX FL WIND 128 KT N QUAD 18:05:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB


Looks like BAMM is doing something similar to GFDL. Normally I'd think it's a bug, but hard to say now with them both agreeing.
Thanks Vero. I'll check it out.
MJH: Most Excellent point. While we like to prognosticate, we're all effectively throwing noodles at the wall to see if they stick.

What's really great now versus, say, 10 years ago when getting one draw of the current US radar on Compuserve took 30 minutes, is that the general public now has access to the same information as the 'experts.'

It's a beautiful and altogether frightening thing. I think it was Churchill who said, "Spend five minutes with an average man, and you'll discern democracy is the stupidest idea you've ever heard."
377. MIAWX
thanks for the link to the models. crazy what the GFDL is doing. I think this shows no one can be confident about where this will make landfall in FL (if at all). LIke Max says "don't focus on the skinny black line, focus on the cone"!
378. dcw
1st again, muahaha
Can someone tell me the conversion from KT to MPH?
Yes, please, Wilma...go to MEXICO...
Vero,

1 KT = 1.15 MPH
You Know It's Serious When...
Indian River County Traffic Engineering is NOW
Taking down Traffic Lights, Leaving Bare Minimum for Roadways. (Most Lights had To Be Replace After Frances/Jeanne). County's mandated All Roadway Construction Halted & Cones/Barriers removed this evening.

gnshpdude -

Thanks a bunch!
Now the BAMM is freaking. Can't wait to see the 5:00 update
385. dcw
Yeah. Kt*1.15=mph, mph*.93=kt (approx)
wow, flcrackergirl, thats a little alarming.
I went out on a limb earlier and said this storm is going to continue moving west into Mexico... I just want to reiterate that yall heard it first from me...
pressure 894....I see that the models are having her run into the Yucatan now...not good for them with winds at that strength...she is one wobbly cane...
The meteorologist on CNN is reporting that the trough that was expected to steer Wilma is not as strong as thought. She is expecting a major change in the projected path at the 5PM NHC update.
wxwatcher, I hope you are right.
What are the chances that Wilma will come to Abaco, Bahamas??
You guys!!!! What's up with the models? They're wigging out AGAIN!!!!

This CAN'T be good for the forecasting
894 MB again...what caused the sudden up then down?
BwanaDogSWFLA:

I'm not sure what the actual number is, but I'm pretty sure we never got sustained hurricane force winds, but I could be wrong. It sure seemed like it, and my roof had plenty of damage, but I don't think there was any official sustained winds over 75 mph. I live in SE Cape Coral.
InPath - Did CNN say what that change might be?
With this change, should I worry? I'm in Baton Rouge, but I have family in New Orleans and Slidell (just returned home after the storm. One has no bottom floor left and her home is uninhabitable).
The EWRC is happening a lot sooner than I expected, which is interesting. Haven't heard much about it though. Hmmm.

398. MJH
You would think this storm will drain alot of energy the caribean and put an end to major hurricanes for the year.
Hey Jeff, good call. We ordered all non-residents to leave the Keys today at noon. A general evacuation for all residents is set for tomorrow (Thur) at noon.
florida fox...the original 900mb was an estimate....the 894/892 now being placed are actual readings from the plane thats in there right now.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2005101912-wilma24l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

GFDL has it weakening over the Yucatan and then being pulle ENE into the Carribean.
telegon- still sticking with that Apalachee Bay landfall? ;-)
I wouldn't start ringing the crisis klaxons in FL just yet (remember Houston anyone?). Until it makes that turn, which I just don't see happening, I would hold off and don't jump the gun on any forecast tracks this early.
Somethign about the long anticipated turn? Anyone with further information on this?
Mandy - Irritating, huh?
Thanks NVA, didnt catch the estimation mark on the 900mb information I read.
ok, starting to already feel Wilma's effects.
After a nice weekend and so far nice week, the clouds are coming and I can bet 100% they are here to stay till after Wilma leaves.
The only good thing is after she leaves, it won't be as hot here as it was with Frances and Jeanne...weatherguy said cool air should follow in behind her, which will be nice to all those who will not have power....
Link see banding already starting in FL
I verified the GFDL here. It is the same!Link
Mandy - yes.

P-21, You referring to me? If I am, please let me know. Thanks.
Sorry RXSE I didn't relaise you had already posted the link
if you guys look at the mimic Link you can see the outter eyewall really good...just a matter of time before the inner eye clapses.
413. MJH
So the gdfl went from off the new englnd coast in 5 days to south of cuba from one model run to the next

How many thousnads of miles difference is that?
if you guys look at the mimic Link you can see the outter eyewall really good...just a matter of time before the inner eye clapses.

Link
One thing is for sure - these storms can totally wipe out whole areas. If you could see what parts of LA, MS, and AL look like now, you'll know that these storms are not worth taking any risks with. If it's possible it's coming your way, and you live in an area that may be at risk, get out.
416. MJH
When I said the models could be off up to thousand miles for the long range I didnt think they could be several thousands of miles off just mid range
417. MIAWX
I have to say that the most consistent model has been the ECMWF. Latest ECMWF run takes Wilma to just off the NE tip of the Yucatan, then makes the sharp turn to the ENE and across south florida - across the Everglades and exiting the coast at Miami. GFS is just north of this track.
kinda, 21... lol

I just don't understand how these models are flipping all over the place. It's giving me the worst headache. Like I said earlier. I don't know whether to breathe a sigh of relief or pack my shiz and leave! lol
BAMs show slow moveent West, than a zip back straight East through Greater Antilles, sparing Florida.


Are the latest BAMs initialized off the 6Z GFS or the 12Z GFS?


Bueller?
umm, stormydee, those are seabreeze showers/tstorms not really related to Wilma. Keep trying though, you're doing great..
lol
y'all see this site with aerials of dmgs from storms
http://alt.ngs.noaa.gov/katrina/KATRINA0000.HTM
Any weather conversion (temps, pressure, winds, humidity/dewpoint)-

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/elp/wxcalc/wxcalc.shtml
InPath - Did CNN say what that change might be?

NO....CNN did not.... I got the impression that the meteorologist was as puzzled by all this as anyone...
wx - its been beautiful here and very very very dry since Friday....that is totally wilma related...usually the seabreezes don't setup this late in the year unless, well, something like Wilma pushes warmer air our way and causes the humidity to up...and even still our seabreezes setup N-S and move usually from W to E...now that line Link is only down in south FL and moving west....
Sorry wx, its Wilma related....
427. MIAWX
I guess does this come down to a matter of miles? If Wilma hits the Yucatan it'll dissipate (BAMMs), but if it just misses, it'll continue chugging along near the NHC forecast track (GFS, ECMWF)?
hello all....
here ya go Stormy, looks like you might be right.

Link
Different view and ominous - cloud top temps...

Link
uh oh, the link doesn't work.

Try this one instead. Animate the Sat images.Link
MIAWX,

GFDL did not have it dissapating. They have it looping over the Yucatan and out to the East toward Cuba as a cat 1. Then from there who knows!!!
LOL stormy, ok, Wilma may be pushing boundries inland across florida and enhancing lift --BUT those showers are not Wilma herself.

She is 700 miles away, slow down turbo, you'll know if/when the outer rain bands approach florida.
My wife is in New York now, due to fly to Cancun on Thursday morning to pick up a tour leaving Paya del Carmen on Saturday for inland Mexico and Guatemala.
Assuming that it's not exactly the right time to be going now, do you guys think the worst will have passed the Yucatan in 48 hours?
hey 65, thanks destiny for your support! :-)
I couldn't get that link to work though...
gamera,

I think I would stay away atleast until Monday! But hey thats me.
wx, I said wilma "related"...DAH, I know what a hurricane feels like, was here for Charley, Frances, and Jeanne....please don't pick on my observations...it reminds me of a troll. Thank you!
Here's what Bastardi is saying:

Wilma remains in an area favorable for maintaining its strength. The water temperatures and depth of very warm water (80 degrees Fahrenheit or greater) is in place over the northwestern Caribbean and even into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Upper-LEvel winds remain light but are in a position to vent the outflowing air at the top of Wilma. A hurricane watch might be issued for parts of south and southwest Florida perhaps as early as later Thursday. However, new computer model information shows Wilma moving into the northeast Yucatan and either stalling or moving very slowly Friday into Saturday. This would delay the hurricanes affects on Florida.

High pressure in mid-levels of the atmosphere across the central and western Gulf of Mexico has actually remained fairly strong and that explains why Wilma has been moving more west than north during the past 24 hours. An upper-level storm system moving out of the southwestern states will head northeastward and cause this upper-level high to weaken, especially over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This upper-level storm will also cause southwesterly winds to increase over the western and central Gulf by Friday. So, as this upper-level high weakens Wilma will sense this weakening and move more northwest then north during Wednesday night and Thursday. However, the upper level system now over the central U.s. is moving faster and does not extend far enough south to influence Wilma entirely. As a result we now believe Wilma will move into the northeast Yucatan slow down and perhaps stall during Friday perhaps into Saturday. As a result movement toward the north or northeast will probably be delayed and that means the hurricane will probably not affect Florida directly until later Saturday night or on Sunday.

All interests in the northwestern Caribbean including western Cuba and the eastern Yucatan and over central and southern Florida should keep in touch with the latest information on Wilma.
gamera- I wouldn't go there either, no way
sorry...but WILMA hitting Fort Meyers would mean a very bad day/night for me here in Fort Lauderdale.
cellman, Joe gives me hope for my planned vacation this weekend...and so do these models Link
But not the 5 day forecast Link
Here I go again, round and round and round and round...
Should I stay or should I go?
I guess tomorrow I will know :-)
windnwaves - of course you realize this means you are off my xmas card list ;-)
The models have changed again.......who knows what will happen.......
I think the one thing we know for sure is that no one knows anything when it comes to Wilma at this point. Looks like they throwing everything out and starting over......lol
sorry, dont mean to single you out windwaves, but thats the type of thinking that surprised people in South Dade when Katrina hit. Thats the type of thinking that keeps a mall in Miami Dade open because the worst is due in Broward. Sure you might miss the 100mph winds but that 80mph may knock out your power, blow your neighbor's porch into a canal and make driving on I95 hell on earth. A storm is headed our way, we should prepare now and expect the worst. being a few zipcodes away from landfall is no way to make plans.
new post everyone
is the gfdl the most concise in peoples opinion 3 other models still showing it coming inot to sw fla?
Windnwaves-with this kind of talking you aint gonna be on my Christmas list either! :)
does anyone have a link to katrina's models say one week out or so?
Just a note...you can go to Google and type in "XXX knots in mph" or "XXX mph in knots" and it will convert it for you...sweet!