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Wilma drenches New England

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:11 PM GMT on October 25, 2005

Wilma continues racing northeast at 55 mph towards Canada, and is still maintaining Category 2 winds of 100 mph. Wind shear of 50 knots is beginning to take its toll, though, and the top potion of the storm is being ripped away from the surface portion, resulting in steady weakening. By tonight, Wilma will pass north of the warm Gulf Stream waters into waters of just 20 C, resulting in rapid weakening to a tropical storm and then to a regular extratropical cyclone. The forward speed of 55 mph means that the winds on the east side of the storm are blowing at 100 mph, and the winds on the west side just 45 mph--quite an asymmetry!

Wilma and New England
Today and tonight, Wilma will dramatically affect New England's weather. A separate powerful Nor'easter storm is developing next to the coast of New England, and moisture feeding back from Wilma into the Nor'easter will drench much of Rhode Island, southeast Massachusetts, and surrounding areas with 2 - 4 inches of rain. In the northern portions of Maine and New Hampshire, the precipitation will come as snow, and reach 6 - 8 inches depth. Snowfall amounts in the Adirondacks will exceed 12 inches, and heavy snow of six inches has already been reported in the Laurel Highlands east of Pittsburgh.

Winds from the combined Nor'easter/Wilma storm will reach sustained levels of 40 - 50 mph over the waters near Cape Cod, and bring wind gusts of 50 mph to New York City, Providence, and Boston. A storm surge of 3.5 feet with 26 foot waves is expected to cause moderate flooding along the coast of southeast Massachusetts, similar to what was experienced with the blizzard of December 2003. Wilma and the Nor'easter will merge on Wednesday, bringing Nova Scotia and Newfoundland tropical storm force winds, heavy rain, and coastal flooding. New England residents, take heart: the
second Nor'easter the computer models were predicting for Sunday now appears to be a non-threat. Yes, the same computer models that have trouble with long range hurricane forecasts also do poorly on winter storms sometimes!

Were the winds on Wilma's backside stronger?
I heard numerous reporters and eyewitnesses say that that after Wilma's eye passed, the winds on the back side were much stronger. A check of the wind history at Fort Lauderdale shows that this was the case there. Sustained winds peaked at 66 mph before the eye's passage, and were 69 mph after. However, most other wind traces I have examined show the opposite trend. For example, West Palm Beach reported peak sustatined winds of 82 mph before eye passage, and 76 mph after. In general, this is what we would expect, since the storm weakened as it passed over Florida. However, there were enough asymmetries caused by friction and interaction with land that some intense thunderstorms wrapped around to the back side of Wilma causing stronger winds there for some areas. In many cases, the perception that stronger winds occurred on the backside was incorrect. After a long lull, the sudden onset of hurricane force winds makes the winds seem stronger, compared to the slow build up of winds that occurs when the storm is first approaching.

Are we done with hurricane season yet?
No. Hurricane season runs through the end of November. On average, we get one tropical storm every other year between now and the end of the year. Given that this is no ordinary year, I think we can expect at least one more tropical storm. However, I do think that the hurricane season for the United States is over. An strong cold front behind Wilma has spread unseasonably cool air across the Gulf of Mexico, the Bahamas, Cuba, and into the northwest Caribbean. This cool air will significantly chill the ocean waters surrounding the U.S., making it difficult for a tropical storm to form or maintain its strength near the U.S.

Tropical disturbance north of Panama
While hurricane season may be over for the U.S., it is definitely not over for the Caribbean. A tropical disturbance in the extreme south central Caribbean north of Panama bears watching this week. Currently, the cloud pattern is disorganized, and wind shear values of 20 knots are too high to allow development. However, wind shear values are expected to drop the next few days, possibly allowing some tropical development to occur later in the week. Most of the global forecast models predict that a tropical depression will form in this region later this week. Any development in this region would be a threat to Costa Rica, Nicaragua, northeast Honduras, and the islands to their north.

Jeff Masters
Wilma and Cape Cod
Wilma and Cape Cod
Chatham Fishing Boat
Roof gone
Roof gone
This Roof came off a several businesses near our house in Palm Beach Gardens.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

thnx dr jeff master
Wow...Wilma is really trucking now...pulling away from Florida at almost a mile a minute...glad it's finally over...
I wonder how our southerly friends are this morning?....Im here...made it back Sunday night and caught the whole storm. Only got gusts to 60MPH...I stood out by my mailbox with my wind gauge, but the highest gust I got was 24mph at 9AM...the winds got worse until around 11:30 but I didn't make it out to get another reading, I had already soaked half the clothes I own. :-)
Good morning everyone :-)
i'm in long island, n.y. and we're having quite gusty winds all morning with plenty of heavy rain. wilma's not quite finished yet - but thank god it didn't turn inland!

love and light,
sean white
From Dr. Masters post: "The forward speed of 55 mph means that the winds on the east side of the storm are blowing at 100 mph, and the winds on the west side just 45 mph"

I'm probably missing something obvious here, but...If the forward speed is 55 mph, resulting in an effective wind speed on the east side of 100 mph, then the circulation wind speed must be 100-55=45 mph. So why isn't the effective wind speed on the west side
45-55 = -10 mph?
In other words, shouldn't the forward speed more than cancel out the rotational speed and result in a net velocity of 10 mph from the opposite direction of the rotational velocity?
Fredman:

Yes, I was just about to make the same observation...

Got a off topic question,

Anyone know how to get the radar on this site to tell you the differenace between rain and snow like the weather.com one does?

Thanks
Thanks DR. Jeff, I really liked the wind history links. I would like to be able to access them in the future. Can they be accessed via this site? Or is there another site I should bookmark? Thanks again and I look forward to your reply.
morning all
I live in Ft. Lauderdale and the eye (moving NE) went just west of me.We were in the eastern eyewall and then the soutern eyewall.We did not get a lull in the storm.The winds were much stronger in the southern eyewall.Most of the worst damadge occured then.Everybody I talk too agrees that the worst winds were in the backside.
Not quite... though I think the math is still off w/ reference to Wilma's actual current windspeed. That would imply that if Wilma was standing still, she would only be a tropical storm -- possibly correct given the shear values, but not if she's over the gulf stream. That said, I believe you do not subtract those winds on the west side.

* Forward speed of 55 mph added to right quadrants; 55 + 45 = 100 mph Category 2 hurricane
* Circulation speed of 45 mph used for left quadrants -- technically this is correct, and some meteorologists (see below) would rather use this value than the 100mph value.

There's a theory around that says that forward speed has nothing to do with windspeeds experienced on the ground (see any of a lot of Joe Bastardi's previous columns on Accuweather), but this storm is traveling 55 mph and is embedded in the jet stream -- the jet stream has something to do with the winds on the ground.
Anohther one trying to form eh? Hmn....

I was griping how the clouds and cold front made it hard for me to view the stars in my telescope (which I fixed and realigned myself =D), then again, I'm grateful for it. No more Hurris till next season.
HEY 65, how was it in Rockledge yesterday?
Hi all,
Just popped in to see if any of our FLA friends checked in. I hope for the sake of the southern inhabitants of this hemisphere that the hurricane season is over! I have learned a lot so far, I will never look at hurricanes the same.

Will check back and catch up later.
If LobCarl or NovascotiaGal are Are able to Post:

I would like to know how you guys are doing?
Hey Stormy!! It was not too bad here. Peak wind gust was 60mph. We got about 12 inches of rain...thankfully we live in a newer subdivision with 3 very large retention ponds so we did not have any flooding. How about in your neck of the woods?
Also, it is interesting to note that 100 mph / 90 knots is a measured value, so technically Wilma probably has the structure of a tropical storm and the windspeed of a Category 2 hurricane. So where the forward speed isn't helping the surface winds, Wilma's circulation is probably leading to 45 mph winds on the backside on the ground.

That said, having looked at the satellite pics, it definitely looks like the net result is -10 mph (at least) at the jet stream altitude, as there no longer is a circulation evident.
65 - it wasnt too bad...lots of rain and some flooding closer to the river, but my house was fine...Hopkins Ave became Hopkins River yesterday morning, but most of the water is gone today. I was a freak out there with my wind gauge at my mail box, luckily there wasn't much flying debris or I might have been knocked hard...the only damage I saw was a small tree on my street split. Wilma reminded me of a nicer Frances...and I enjoyed the fact she was a day storm instead of a night one.
I certainly hope that we in the U.S. and others soon will be able to take a break from hurricanes! Thanks Dr. Jeff for all your work this season!
Hey Dee!! Glad to see you are okay!

Hey all..
What did you clock on your gauge??
I'll be back in a little while.. Gotta go do some work..
Stormydee, maybe you should work for the Weather channel. You can go down to Key West & be a reporter during then next big one to come our way..
sorry 21, playing catchup as well...the highest gust I recorded was 24mph, but there were lots of stronger ones...I just kept going outside from 8:00 - 9:00 and soaked so many clothes...then drove to the shop to make sure there was no damage and after that great soaking, I had an internal chill so I decided to stop playing in the cold rain.. :-)
They said the highest gust here was about 60mph...but we were lucky and had straigh N winds only, not much rotation (thank goodness cause the central and south part of Brevard Cty got a few tornadoes)
funny gator :-) Thats what I was getting told yesterday from my co-workers when I was standing in the middle of my work parking lot getting wind reports (and completely soaked)...too many structures in the way though, I only recorded a 12pmh gust at work. My street though runs N-S so that was the best place to get it...just wish I would have gone out at 11AM when the winds were at their peak here.
That's cool Stormy, glad ya had fun!! I need a wind gauge for the next storm that comes here, lol...
Hey Gals,
anyone heard from palmbeacher today or yesterday? Ive been worried about her.....she got the blunt of the storm...
I wonder if Palmbeacher is okay... She lives in West Palm Beach (gee that was hard to figure out huh? lol)
They did get the brunt? I hope she is okay...
Stormydee needs a rain suit...
Stormy, I think she said she was staying...
21 as of Friday, she told me she was gonna stay...maybe she doesn't have power and thats why we haven't heard yet...at leaast I hope its as simple as that...I only lost cable (darnit) but the power stayed.
And yes weathernut, I need a rainsuit...I had a water-proof jacket on, but I realized it wasn't waterproof at the zipper and by the time I'd go in (which I only stayed out 5-10 minutes at a time), the water had gone up my legs, underneath the jacket and soaked my shorts and shirt (3 times). Burr. :-)

lol Dee... You know the high is in the mid 60's today for us.. It is colddd out!! It was in the 40's last night.. No beach for me =(
Be back in a while - accounts payable (always fun..)
HurryKaneKata
If your still here, things aren't to bad here. 40 to 50 with a couple higher gusts and light rain so far.
Stormy, I was out in it yesterday as well....put on a poncho, which did absoultely no good. By the time I came back in the house my shorts were soaked. It was nice to have this during the day....not a nerve racking that way.
Backside winds...I was in Tampa last year during Frances, and in that case, it was much worse on the backside. The winds may or may not have been stronger, but when they changed direction, they started pushing water up into the bay and canals. The first day the canal was low, with wind pushing water out of it. When we woke up the next morning, my dad's back yard was full of canal water.
stormdee,

Nope last I heard from her in email was she was getting ready for the storm (that was Sat morning)
Hi All,

21...no gauges, haven't you heard, no more for us (heard it from a bird)! lol Stormy, glad you are okay.
For the rest of our Floridian neighbors, as you check in here, be sure to post on CoconutCreekFLA's blog as well. It is strictly for those affected and will be interesting reading for later. For the rest, especially up north, hold on tight. This thing called Wilma, I don't think of her as Fred's wife anymore somehow, with Halloween so near, I tend to think of her as Wilma the Witch (B), is headed your way fast!
The wind speed/forward speed issue is a pet peeve of mine. I think that forward speed is defined as the speed of the storm's center, and the maximum windspeed will be where the circulating winds are blowing in the same direction as the center's movement. (I should be talking about velocity here, I suppose.) If that's true, then if the center is moving at 55mph, and the maximum winds are 100mph, and the storm is symmetrical, then the winds on the opposite side would be blowing at 10mph in the same direction as the storm's movement. In other words, winds are circulating at 45mph (peak) around the storm's center, and the storm's center is moving at 55mph. I know It's Not That Simple, but I think the "100mph on one side and 45mph on the other" statement is off.

What really set me off was one of our local forecasters (on the NBC affiliate in Raleigh/Durham, NC), who said something to the effect of: "This storm is coming in as a strong Cat 2, maybe a Cat 3, but it's moving at 25mph, so it'll actually have Category 4 or higher winds on the southeast side!" Which, of course, is exactly wrong. Grr.
hey all my wonderblog friends. this is the first time i've been able to get out wireless broadband card on laptop. it's pretty bad here... though worse a little south. still no internet from main computer (cable)... but i have power now!

i'm ok, minor damage here, mostly trees-roofs-business awnings and covers. my biz is still without power so i'm just waiting at home for things to recover. just a little bored.. that's all.

will write more when i can.
HEY, Good morning, its good to see you guys in here. Pensecola, stormydee,; any word from Palmbeacher , Coconut and the rest of the Floridians?
HurryKaneKata..winds are starting to pick up here now - 30 km/hr sustained, gusts of 50 km/h - not much to speak of as late

WOCN31 CWHX 251200
HURRICANE WILMA INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT TUESDAY
25 OCTOBER 2005.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT

...HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST TO TRANSFORM INTO LARGE POST-TROPICAL
STORM SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA..GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN EXPECTED...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
36.0 N AND LONGITUDE 68.0 W... ABOUT 270 NAUTICAL MILES OR 500 KM
NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
95 KNOTS... 176 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 965 MB. WILMA IS
MOVING NORTHEAST 45 KNOTS... 83 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
OCT 25 9.00 AM 36.0N 68.0W 965 95 176
OCT 25 3.00 PM 38.8N 66.0W 970 85 157 TRANSITIONING
OCT 25 9.00 PM 41.9N 63.1W 983 70 130 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 26 3.00 AM 44.0N 60.0W 978 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 26 9.00 AM 44.8N 57.0W 981 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 26 3.00 PM 45.0N 54.0W 984 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 26 9.00 PM 45.0N 51.1W 985 55 102 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
MARITIME PROVINCES. SOME RAINFALL AND WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR NEWFOUNDLAND AS WELL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM AN EAST TO
NORTHEAST DIRECTION. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 90 OR 100 KM/H
RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN SHORE OF
MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA AND CAPE BRETON BY TUESDAY EVENING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW
BRUNSWICK WHERE UP TO 70 MM COULD FALL. AMOUNTS IN THE RANGE OF 30
TO 50 MM ARE PREDICTED OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER NEWFOUNDLAND BEGINNING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY.

ROUGH SURF IS FORECAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA BY
TUESDAY EVENING AND IN THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT. WATER LEVELS WILL ALSO BE ABOVE NORMAL..BUT TIDES WILL BE LOW
FOR THE MOST PART DURING THE PEAK OF THE STORM.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

WILMA MAY BRING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OVER SCOTIAN SLOPE WATERS THIS
EVENING. CONSEQUENTLY..HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED
FOR THOSE AREAS. ELSEWHERE..STORM FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
INCLUDING MOST NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS.

WILMA'S REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR OR SOUTH OF SABLE
ISLAND..THEN MOVE EASTWARD WELL SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 7 METERS OVER EASTERN SHORE AND SABLE REGIONS
TONIGHT AND TO NEAR 5 METERS IN THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE.


5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

HURRICANE WILMA CONTINUES TO RACE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE STORM APPEARS
MORE RAGGED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SEEMS TO BE MOVING FURTHER EAST
AND A BIT FASTER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. WILMA'S CIRCULATION MAY ALSO
BE VERTICALLY DECOUPLED DUE TO INCREASING ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR..AND
THE INFERRED CENTRE FROM INFRARED IMAGERY MAY BE WELL AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE CIRCULATION.

B. PROGNOSTIC

INDICATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE THAT WILMA MAY RACE BY WELL SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA. WE STILL EXPECT INCLEMENT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING EXTRATROPICAL LOW NEAR LONG ISLAND..
BUT MAY NOT EXPERINCE THE 100 KM/H WIND GUSTS ADVERTISED UP TILL NOW.

THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. IN SPITE OF THE INITIAL
RAPID FORWARD MOTION AND POSSIBLE DECOUPLING..THE GEM BRINGS THE
REMNANT CIRCULATION OF WILMA OVER CAPE BRETON AND INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. HOWEVER..THIS SOLUTION GOES AGAINST MOST OTHER
GUIDANCE AND THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS..WHICH INDICATE THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION ROUNDING THE DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE AND MOVING SOUTH OF
NEWFOUNDLAND. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY EVIDENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENING ENOUGH TO BRING THE LOW INTO CAPE BRETON.

THAT BEING SAID..THE OVERALL PATTERN PREDICTED BY THE GEM..INCLUDING
THE FORMATION OF A BAROCLINC LOW WELL TO THE WEST NEAR CAPE COD..
APPEARS REASONABLE.

THERE IS A FAIR BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS
TO BE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA. GIVEN WHAT IS UNFOLDING
THIS MORNING WITH THE STORM'S AGGRESSIVE FORWARD MOTION..IT IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY THAT 100-KM/H WIND GUSTS WILL BE
EXPERIENCED.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE WITH THE
ORIGINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER DISSIPATING WELL TO THE EAST.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER

SEE DETAILS ABOVE.

D. MARINE WEATHER

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
25/12Z 340 360 360 300 240 180 140 180 75 90 75 40
25/18Z 320 360 420 330 240 190 145 220 65 85 60 20
26/00Z 300 360 480 360 240 200 150 240 60 80 40 0
26/06Z 300 330 490 360 240 205 180 270 0 0 0 0
26/12Z 300 300 500 400 240 210 210 300 0 0 0 0
26/18Z 270 270 500 420 220 200 195 300 0 0 0 0
27/00Z 240 240 500 480 200 180 180 300 0 0 0 0


END FOGARTY/PARKES

Next update is expected in 30 minutes
Morning to you too Orion, I'll have some answers for you in a little bit, so watch your mail. :)
I posted a few pics...most of the ones I took were blurry or had screen markings in them so I didn't post them (I had 32 pics total) I picked out the only few that were good enough. Enjoy :-)
hey Destiny, Orion, and everyone else :-)
I truly hope we hear from our southern folks soon.....
Destiny,

Afternoon, and am watching the mail (for your email and other reasons)
Orion are you cold there yet? Its freezing rain here this morning with a dusting of snow. I had rather get a foot of snow than just a touch of this freezing crud. Its dangerous to walk out your door. My driveway is slanted towards the street. I stepped outside yesterday, took a single step and ended up at my van at the street. whhooaaaaaaaaa
stormy, I was going to try to get some pics yesterday, but the batteries in the camera were dead, and wouldn't you know it, I could not find any new ones in the house anywhere.
Palm BEach post is reporting that it may take up to 4 weeks to get power restored. Do you have an idea of where palmbeacher lives? (what area?)
lobcarl and novascotiagal,

i am glad everything is ok where you are so far!

thanks for answering and take care!

let us know if conditions worsen
no 65, not sure where she's at there...so, lets just hope its a power problem only...
I'm sure that is all that it is
Regarding the statement about winds; was most likely a typo. If Cat 2 w/sustained winds of 100mph (which would be close to the eye), and forward speed of 55mph, and say moving northward, then winds on the east side would be 155mph, and on the west side, 45mph.
Destiny,

Cold and wet here, no snow yet (some to the south, some places they are talking 5-8 inches by tommorrow night). We might get some later this eveing, tonite and tommorrow.
Does anyone know how Cozumel made out after having the eye of Wilma go directly over the island?
Hi guys! It's not too terrible here (Southern RI), but I just came back from looking at the beach, and I couldn't believe the waves. The water was up to the sea wall, and spray and waves were starting to hurtle over. The waves at Narragansett beach were breaking as far out as I've ever seen them- maybe a hundred and fifty yards out, and everything after that was just foam! A radio reporter came over and asked me to talk about it into her mic, probably because I was the only person out of their car there! Some branches were down and a little street flooding, but not at all the "perfect storm" like '91, thank god. Take care up in Canada, guys!
Hey Destiny, Code1 =)
I was out getting lunch :-)
hey 21
Hey Weatherdude, didnt see ya there! :-)
Spoke to a friend in Everglades City a couple hours ago (cell phone). He stayed there; his house--on stilts--was not damaged, and neither was his boat, although he might have taken his boat away. But there's no power and no fuel there and he said he could find only one gas station open in Naples, with hundreds of cars waiting in line. Another friend in Ft. Lauderdale told me a simlar story last night; his landline phone was working, amazingly.

Obviously, businesses there ( and eslewhere) are going to lose some revenue; I hope all recovers soon.
21, lurking and working and talking a bit
Weatherdude, you and I both! :-)
Wow, Well Im logging out cause I have to catch this work up before I go home.
Have a good night everyone and I hope we hear from our southern folks tomorrow.
Thank you toadfish for the update...
Good night Stormy....have a good afternoon and evening!
Palmbeacher is from Boynton Beach, any reports as to how they weathered the storm there? I know a lot of people are without power down there, so maybe thats why she hasn't popped in this morning.
Hi all - it's a balmy 42 degrees here in southwest Virginia. There have been snowflakes falling all day. Nothing sticking to the ground or more than a few flakes at a time, but even one flake is just wrong this time of year down here. Glad to hear from the FL people and that so far everyone has made it through allright. Still thinking about those that haven't checked in yet, but I'm sure they will when the lights come back on.
Well it is a bit after 2:30 here on the Space Coast and the temp is only at 61 degrees.
North of Panama: not exactly a circulation yet, but suggestive.
hecker, good thing that if anything does form there it will continue west
Dude65, will be there on Fri. Only 61 here in the panhandle. waaaayyyyy to cool for now!! Good note is forecast to be back to normal this weekend. Bye Stormy. 21 check my earlier post :)
code...nice thing about this weather is that I can turn off the AC for about a week!!!
I hear you. My last bill was $132 and I was gone for 3 1/2 weeks with thermostat turned up to 82!
looks like we are being invaded lol

Link
i had just seen that on wu radar!
i guess it's a second little drier troff ~let the even dryer air invade!
skye, you're right, a reinforcing blast of cool are..temps here are supposed to bottom out in the low 40's in the morning
I wonder how CoconutCreek is too... Did that area have bad damage??
80. dcw
2:30 discussion mentions the SW Caribbean wave as a "special feature", aka tropical cyclone. Advisories will start within 24 hours, its really gotten together. Say hi to Beta!
Been watching "Beta" for a couple of hours. Hope our experts are correct in that it won't affect the USA.
82. dcw
To the rotation thing:

Assume that the center is rotating at a speed of n and a forward motion of f. Either the NHC issues advisories based on the center's rotation (so wind speed=n) or on the max speed found anywhere (wind speed=n+f, min speed |n-f|).

Thus, Wilma should have *either*:

160 on right, 50 on left
or
100 on right, 10 on left (|-10|=10)
83. dcw
I think it'll be like that mid-december storm a couple years back. Formed in the same area and immidiately hit central america. I still think it'll be Beta before then though, maybe even Hurricane Beta.
As to what might conceivably yet happen this year due to SSTs, I offer the following and encourage the viewer to draw his or her own conclusions.

Hey everyone,

Finally took some time to catch up on the blog. Glad to see that your ok Dee. I hope all of the other Southern Florida bloggers came through the storm ok as well. Looks like its going to be quite for a little while.
86. dcw
Looks like plenty of heat potential if it can follow in Wilma's footsteps.

Has anyone else noticed that Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma all went through the same spot on the map and went through rapid intensification within a few hours? Pheer the Gulf Loop!
update on the Maine coast. Gusting 50 to 60, my own personel guess. There isn't any info being sent from the gomoos.com weather bouys. We have power and my lobster boat is riding fine on the mooring.
From our radar, looks like it may get worse lobcarl. Hang tight. Someone with real knowledge will repond, I feel sure. Good luck. Also, check Leftyy420's blog. On WU as well. This site is up to the minute with great knowledgable people who will help you.
hey all, ric in bonita. just got cable modem back
Any bets ('"Gentlemen Bets" only) on how many storms this season? I think it will get to Delta, and that will occur after 30 Nov. Since 28 Feb/1 Mar is the cutoff between "this" season and "next season, that gives us four months, not one, and this year seems tho one it will occur in. Every month of the year has had hurricanes at least once, so why not? Everything else has happened this year, it seems...[g]

After 8 hurricanes in 15 months (and maybe some tropical storms? I can't remember - must be hurricane overload), Florida gets a break, however.

I know "they" say storms won't approach the US again til next year, but "they" also say Vince-type storms can't happen at all. [g] Even so, I'll also say no more storms south of Charleston, SC. If nothing else, Dennis and Katrina swamped the panhandle, also, and I want to ignore the weather for a few months.

So, let's share the wealth.. Nothing below Charleston til after Billy Bowlegs next year, at least...

I just reconsidered - I'll put the above comment in my blog (I'll start a blog/whatever) and let everyone post their guessses/forecasts there.

Then we can have them all in one place, and I'll put the resulys in a graph format next spring, and compare it to what really happened.

I think I'd prefer to keep it off Dr Jeff's blog, as most of us want to make sure everyone made it through Wima safely, so no need for me to junk up this blog with an off-topic thread.
And now for coming attractions (extracted from the 2:05 p.m. discussion from the NHC)

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR
11N78W WITH MINIMUM PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1011 MB. THIS SYSTEM HAS
BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF INCREASING ORGANIZATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WITH BANDING FEATURES BECOMING MORE PROMINENT. COMPUTER MODELS
UNANIMOUSLY SUGGEST THE AREA HAS POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY WARM WATER AND LIGHT WIND SHEAR IN THE
FORECAST. A SLOW DRIFT TO THE W OR WNW IS LIKELY WITH THIS
SYSTEM. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE S OF 13N BETWEEN 76W-83W.
Winds on the E side still weak, but getting more organized.
squeak wrote:

Regarding the statement about winds; was most likely a typo. If Cat 2 w/sustained winds of 100mph (which would be close to the eye), and forward speed of 55mph, and say moving northward, then winds on the east side would be 155mph, and on the west side, 45mph.

EXACTLY!!!
How in the hec is Wilma maintaining so much strength with the water temperatures what they are in that area?
Anybody know where I can find some accurate info on top wind gusts in Brevard County during Wilma?

Thanks!
SarahFromFLA, your local weather service office is here Link
They do not appear to have a summary of all the reported winds gusts yet, or an official storm report. I suggest peeking at that web site from time to time to see what info they give.
To Lobcarl:

Hope you have a safe and not too terrible night up there!

Don't lose power!

and to all those down in Mexico:

Cuidado....con Beta!
TampaSteve, if you look at buoys 41001 and 44004 Link You will see that as Wilma passed by at its closest, the pressure fell below 29.00" and yet the winds stayed less than 15 kts as Wilma made its closest approach! Winds did increase several hours later as a cold front passed through. Wilma was at best a minimal hurricane if standing still last night, and maybe a tropical storm. The winds were over 100 mph on the east side, but almost nonexistant on the west side.
Remarkably, when the pressure was lowest at buoy 44004, the wind was just 3.9 knots! And no, it wasn't in the eye, it was at the outer edge of the western eye wall
As we bid Wilma farewell, we have Beta-to-be to keep an eye on (thanks for the heads up StSimonsIslandGAGuy). NSgal, how are things up your way tonight? Wilma has linked with the NE low/trough and her stormtrack is veering westward toward NS.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
HURRICANE WILMA...LOCATED ABOUT 205 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
any one no this one why did we get a high cat 3 or even a low cat 4 at land fall when we where forcasting a cat 1 or low cat 2 at land fall and this one more from last year form 2004 when the I storm made land fall did it made land fall at a high cat 3 or a low or high cat 4 and is winds of 130 mph a cat 3 winds or a cat 4 winds any one with this ? let me no thank you
HurryKaneKata,the wind and rain are letting up. So it should not be a bad night. NE winds never bother us much here. And in northern Maine it is snowing hard.
OK the latest on our SW Carribean low. Compared to 6 hours earlier, it is analyzed as 2 mb lower, and consolidating 1 degree further to the east. This gives it a slightly better chance of clearing the Honduras/Nicaragua angle as it moves WNW.


(extracted from the 8:05 p.m. NHC discussion)

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR
11N77W WITH MINIMUM PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1009 MB. THIS SYSTEM HAS
BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF INCREASING ORGANIZATION WITH BANDING
FEATURES BECOMING MORE PROMINENT. COMPUTER MODELS UNANIMOUSLY
SUGGEST THE AREA HAS POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY
WARM WATER AND LIGHT WIND SHEAR IN THE FORECAST. A SLOW DRIFT
TO THE W OR WNW IS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 76W-79W...AND FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 79W-83W.
I still think it will move ashore in Nicaragua however.
you know StSimonsGAGuy that this season any chance for a storm to blow up will be utilized, and that if there's any chance of Beta-to-be clearing the N/H angle then it will happen and then Beta-to-be will ramp straight up to Cat. 5...
107. dcw
I'm initiating advisories on Beta at 11, probably. Well, TD26Z anyway.
The way this durn season is, Beta will move NW, clear the Honduras/Nicaragua angle, blow up into a Cat 4 or so in the NW Caribbean, and get yanked by a trough across western Cuba into south Florida and become the first major hurricane ever to make landfall in the US in November. And we will see Dr. Masters and Dr. Gregory explain it all ;-)
The tracking map shows Wilma will still be a TS on Thursday, way up there in the North Atlantic. If Beta blows up into a Cat 5, I'm definitely buying some crystals and making a tinfoil hat. (end of the world preparations, lol)
Mmmmmm.....Taking bets on Beta, just kiddin.

Wilma is one scary storm, shes STILL a two?!
never mind NOLAinNC, Wilma is combining with the NE US low/trough and is aiming to make a 3rd landfall in Canada...

... as for Beta-to-be, bring out the crystals and tinfoil hats and shades
Hey everybody! Greetings from NE Naples. Day 2 of Wilma cleanup went well, in a blisters and sore muscles sort of way. We are blessed. We have power, water (never lost water), land line phone, and broadband - only cellular is still out. But most of the metro area has only land line phone service at best - no power, etc. I hope services are restored to everyone soon.

To give you an example of SW FLorida resiliancy and humor: I saw a sign today in someone's destroyed yard. It said, "Free firewood. Bring chainsaw." Good stuff!

Someone asked why the storm intensified when it was forecast as a Cat 1, maybe 2 at landfall. During the storm, as everyone began to realize that the back eyewall was pounding us much harder than the front had, local weathermen put their heads together and began postulating that the cold front was actually feeding Wilma instead of weakening her - soemething about the storm drawing energy from the cold air. They actually went into much greater detail about the dynamics of the situation, but I can't recall exactly what was said. (I'm a heartfelt but rather green weather newbie, and I was sort of preoccupied with a major hurricane that was trying to have my house and family for dinner. Actually, most of what I remember from last night involves stress eating massive quantities of Funions, deep and sincere praying to God for safety, and adrenaline-enhanced listening to every creak and groan of a home under hurricane assault. But I digress....)

I'm really anxious to hear from GoldenGate and nightbloomingjasmine, as well as other SW Floridians.

Regarding storm names...it would really be something if we got to delta. Remember, the Greek alphabet goes alpha, beta, gamma, delta - or a, b, g, d. Delta would really be something!
FloridaFox7 she (Wilma) is now an extratropical storm, so hurricane categories no longer apply. But she is still roaring along (having combined wirth the East Coast low). An excerpt from the marine forecast in Nova Scotia, Canada:

Laurentian fan.
Hurricane force wind warning continued.
Easterly gales 40 to 50 knots increasing to southeast gales 50 to
65 late this evening then veering to southwest gales 50 to 65
overnight.
Looks like the grotto's protection finally ran out! Informative article about Key West damage to anyone that is interested!

http://www.keysnews.com/hurricaneedition/1024_KWflooding.htm

a href="http://www.keysnews.com/hurricaneedition/1024_KWflooding.htm"

I hope I did the link correctly!
Oops: I'll try that again... sorry.

a href="http://www.keysnews.com/hurricaneedition/1024_KWflooding.htm"
116. dcw
About the front strengthening her:

Ever wonder where polar lows get their energy? Certainly not warm water :) Storms can also feed off of differences in temperature, which is the normal source of energy for extratropical systems. Essentially, Wilma went subtropical for a while before reaching the Atlantic.
From looking at recent NHC modeling (well, yesterday), at one point it looked like tropical storm force winds from Wilma could persist east of 15W Longitude. Is that still a possibility, and what would that mean for future storm seasons? Has this happened in the past, or is this part of the brave new world of global warming?

I can't imaging the Irish Tourism Board being particularly pleased with the prospects of fall tropical storms lashing the Emerald Isle on a routine basis.
Does anyone know what the latest a hurricane ever formed is??
rhbrandon, you may be on to something..... considering tropical storm vince, which was a rare event itself, making landfall in spain!!!

the next ten years, at least, may bring us much more rare, or never seen weather phenomenon..... exciting to follow, but potentially costly and deadly.