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Wilma: dramatic change in forecast track?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:37 PM GMT on October 19, 2005

Hurricane Wilma continues across the western Caribbean towards Mexico as a Category 5 hurricane. The Hurricane Hunters reached the storm at 2:06 pm EDT, and reported a pressure of 892 mb, ten mb higher than the Atlantic record lowest pressure of 882 mb set this morning. The 3:56 pm EDT hurricane eye report showed the same pressure, 892 mb. Peak winds measured at flight level were 141 knots in the southern eyewall, compared to 162 knots measured this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows that the cloud tops have warmed a bit since this morning, and Wilma is a weaker storm--but still a Category 5 capable of catastrophic damage. The eye diameter measured by the hurricane hunters was still a very tiny 5 nm, and an second concentric eyewall with diameter 10 nm has formed. This indicates that Wilma may soon undergo an eyewall replacement cycle, and will weaken to a Category 4 storm.


Figure 1. Computer model tracks for Hurricane Wilma.

Where will Wilma go?
There is now a high degree of uncertainty in the forecast for Wilma. NHC has not adjusted the official forecast much with the 5 pm advisory, other than to slow down Wilma a bit. However, a major shift in the model guidance occurred with the just completed 12Z (8 am) runs, that may force NHC to make major modifications to the official forecast if further model runs continue to show this shift. Three of the top models--the GFS, GFDL, and UKMET models--now show that the trough of low pressure that was expected to pull Wilma sharply northwards and then northeast across Florida is progressing slower than expected, and will not dig as far south. If this forecast verifies, it would be very bad news for Mexico. Wilma may not pass east of Mexico through the Yucatan Channel as originally thought, and may instead make a landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula near Cozumel or Cancun Island on Thursday night or Friday morning, probably as a Category 4 hurricane.

However, this would be very good news for Florida. Any encounter with the Yucatan Peninsula would cause a serious disruption of the hurricane, and make it unlikely that Wilma could affect Florida as a major hurricane. A hit on southwest Florida as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane would be most likely, and the arrival of the hurricane would be delayed until Sunday. It is quite possible that Wilma would not affect Florida as a hurricane at all; the GFDL model forecasts that Wilma will spend three days over Mexico and emerge off the coast as a tropical storm and pass south of Cuba. So, if I lived in Florida and was thinking about evacuating today, I would wait another day and see what the forecast tomorrow brings. Keep in mind, though, that the NOGAPS model, which is one of the top four models for tracking hurricanes, is still showing that Wilma will pass through the Yucatan Channel and a make landfall in southwest Florida as a major hurricane. The Canadian model is showing this as well.

I'll have another update tonight, as conditions warrant.

Conditions on the Yucatan
Here's an email I received from wunderphotographer cleo85 , who is in the Yucatan and took the photo shown below. She has promised to post photos and send reports as her situation permits:

"Here is the Paamul [Yucatan Peninsula] update. After a very cloudy morning we did have some blue sky around 11:00am CDT. Now at 2:00pm CDT the Sky is almost overcast with picturesque clouds. There are a few light showers. We have a light breeze from north with winds what feel more and more warmer. The morning [5am CDT] showed 76 Fahrenheit now we have 88. Paamul is boarding up and will evacuate tomorrow. There is a confusion were to go since some of the newest computer models showing landfall on the Yucatan with a turn around and going back to the Caribbean. I was told the mood in the city of Playa del Carmen changed from almost ignorance two days ago to panic right now. There is no gasoline or diesel anywhere between Cancun and Tulum. Groceries seams to be tight. Batteries are out. There is price poaching going on. The Newspapers do their best to bring the panic up."

Jeff Masters
Wilmas Messenger or just Clouds?
Wilmas Messenger or just Clouds?
Cloudy Sunrise on Yanten Beach, PaaMul, Q.Roo, Mexico, [Yucatan Peninsula]

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Doc.
Verrry interesting, Doc.
Sounds better
oh, FL by Sunday and weaker...now thats what we want to hear here in FL...but poor Cozumel, such a poor island.... :(
21 checked ur email lately?
Don Noe (ABC MIAMI) mentioned the model change...said it may force change in timing (similar to Bastardi's take)...Curious to hear from Bryan Norcross...
Don't forget that it's still early to know for sure. Another sudden track change is always possible.
phew.... things are looking better in FL.
Dr. Masters, with all due respect, typically there will not be a drastic change shown in the forecast unless the models show this a few times in a row. Do you expect the 5PM advisory to show this drastic change? Also if this storm does hit Mexico but only for short time would the wind field increase, as the storm weakens slightly?
Thanks in advance...
That is a lot better news than this morning. But the poor people in Cozumel. Their infrastructure can't take these type of winds and storm surge. The downtown tourist area will be wiped out if it takes a direct hit. No more Senior Frogs.
the GFDL model shows her hitting the Yucatan and then bouncing back over to the Caribbean. Is it possible that she could reintensify after landfall and be pulled north if the low pressure system continues down and sucks her up? And if that is possible would FL be able to expect a cat 1 or 2 to hit it? Thnx
is the GFDL model the most precise in your opinion, there are 3 other model still setting thier aim directly into swfl thanks in advance
Not only have the models shifted, but the storm itself has been tracking further left than predicted in the last 24 hours. Within the next 6 to 12 hours, Wilma would have to make a pretty drastic move to the north in order to miss the Yucatan. That doesn't seem likely considering the system over Colorado is a ways off and weaker than expected. I'm currently in Colorado where our winter weather advisories were cancelled earlier today due to a weaker than expected system.
is the fun overe for the low mb in the hurricane or could it go back down to 888mb or so and i her the winds is 165 mph is that right or is the wind higher then that right now let me no
wx called it! heh
westcoastfla - the gdfl is just the latest one to run. Check out this link:

Link

It shows the times of the runs. UKMET still has it hitting FL even in a later run, but it hasn't been very accurate.
Deanna - Check mail!!
Let's face it folks, the models do not know what to do with Wilma just now. She has confounded virtually all predictions all the way along, and clearly has a mind of her own. It will be a nail-biting few days waiting to see what she decides to do...
Norcross (CBS MIAMI) expects change in timing of track at 5pm; believes that previous track may be too fast. He will talk with Mayfield at 445pm
Elliston, they need to retire that LBAR, that looks the same as it did the other day....Hope they are wrong....
Im begining to think no one will know where this storm goes to any percentage....
I cannot believe Im still at work...this blog is addictive...anyway, heading home...may be back on tonight if I get a chance...
Goodnight! :-)
hmm, looks like jeff looked at what I was saying only earlier I hinted at it crossing the Yucatan then drifting SW into the Pacific. Since then, I do not feel the pacific part of that prediction is going to be accurate (we will see), but definitely the Mexico part is.

After making landfall in Mexico, the storm will sit a few days and weaken to a cat 1 or more likely TS Wilma. Following that and depending on how strong and how far south the front/ridge actually is and goes will determine Wilma's path in the future. Given that the front currently appears weaker and slower than expected, I would not at all be suprised to see Wilma traverse the Bay of Campeche and make a second Mexico landfall. Of course a stronger front could still sail her out into the Atlantic, however I do not see this happening for a couple of reasons that I'll have to wait and explain later.

For now, a definite Mexico landfall.

thx blue.
stormydee - yeah, I'm not sure what's up with the LBAR...it's way out of synch, but it is showing that it is the latest run model of all of them. Maybe it knows something we don't....
wxwatcher

Do you see Wilma NOT hitting FL at all? Please advise!
Has the UM v. Ga. Tech game been rescheduled? If so, to when?
Doc,

what are the chances of Wilma hitting the Gulf Coast. Do the Westerlies prevent this from happening? For example IS it possible this time of year for wilma to pull a Rita an go West the NW then N? Or are the Westerlies likely to get a hold of her when she is above 25 N and drag her to the NE?
any one no if the fun is overe for the low mb or could it go back down to 885mb or so with higher winds then be for
Well......Interesting......
Will check again in the morning but it is looking better and better for the Dayton Bikefest this weekend
Caneman,

I definitely do not see MAJOR Hurricane Wilma hitting the FL coast. If it should head that way, a moderate cat 2 would be the worst but more likely a strong cat 1. I say this because IF it should make the 'turn' it would move so rapidly that there is little liklihood she could recover after moving west. I'm not sure how to explain it simply but when an intense hurricane moves west, it gets a 'rhythm' going in the atmosphere. If the motion abruptly changes it's like knocking a spinning top off of a table -- it takes time to recover and get the 'rhythm' in place for re-rapid intensification. I'm not sure how to exlain it briefly other than that.

There are several reasons I do not see a florida landfall at all, but I do not want to speculate this early in the game. For now, a weakening hurricane over Mex/Yucatan.
WX - I'm going to side with you completely. Wilma takes on the Yucatan; news at 11.
wxwatcher , you got my vote. I hope your scenario pans out. guess lots of stuff can happen 'tween now and this weekend.
Due diligence will be the name of the name until this thing passes.
I have to disagree, you all are looking at the downward wobble, its in fact heading WNW, almost on track.
35. dcw
What about a passage over the Yucatan and out into the BoC? Sort of an Emily clone?
Not too sure, per previous unusual storms, those tracks that indicate Wilma would turn around, in reality they simply stalled at that location, like ophelia being the latest.
The UM - GT game has not been rescheduled. Though November 19th seems most likely, Wake has to agree to move their game with Miami to November 12. Nothing in ink yet, though the AJC is reporting it so.
lookin at the latest mimic....i say in 3-6 hours a big beautiful eye 20-30nm across is gonna wink at us...and unfortunantly...strengthening will occur acordingly...
Your common sense comments are appreciated. I was ready to high-tail it out of Key West this morning, anticipating that there would be nothing to come back to. As the day has gone by the people around me have advocated a wait-and-see attitude... and you comments make me feel good about deciding to go along with that. I evacuated for Rita (only my 2nd evacuation of 24 storms) and felt foolish once I returned. Here in the Keys we have Cat 1's for breakfast, but I am especially concerned about intensities THIS season. Again, thanks for the vice of moderation.
40. KnD
budturner: Yes, it has been postponed
The ACC did not immediately announce when the game would be played. Miami athletic director Paul Dee had said Nov. 17 and 19 are options -- but that would require the Hurricanes' Nov. 17 game at Wake Forest to be pushed back to Nov. 12, and that would also take away a national TV, high-exposure Thursday night game from the Demon Deacons.

41. KnD
budturner: Yes, it has been postponed
The ACC did not immediately announce when the game would be played. Miami athletic director Paul Dee had said Nov. 17 and 19 are options -- but that would require the Hurricanes' Nov. 17 game at Wake Forest to be pushed back to Nov. 12, and that would also take away a national TV, high-exposure Thursday night game from the Demon Deacons.

Cy, it's moving itself, I can see that the direction is WNW. My point is, the upper level winds supposed to steer it East are A) not going to be nearly as strong and B) are not going to come as far south. You can see it's not gaining the latitude it was forecasted to gain.

Anyone can see the only thing steering this thing, currently, is what I call the 'boomerang effect'.
43. KnD
I'm SO sorry for "stuttering" there.. my comp froze up or something..
44. dcw
What is WITH the Floaters?
storms forming in this area have been unpreditcable but most have gone hard right back east or continue back over yuc/mexico.
just be ready to act when needed. we in Central florida do not need one this year.
46. dcw
Latest "mimic"? What are you talking about?

Press conference at 4:45...wonder if they haven't been telling us something.

Latest recon shows 141kt FL winds, so a strong 4. Pressure still below 900 though O.O O.o o.O o.o
For anyone who says this will hit Yucatan, since 1851 zero hurricanes near Wilma's path have hit the northern Yucatan:


I'm not not sure you should get your hopes up. In looking at the 12Z GFDL Link It seems clear to me that it is already way off what we have seen. Despite a wobble or two, Wilma's current direction takes it just over the tip of the Yucatan without any change in direction. A slight jog north, and it avoids the Yucatan altogether. The GFDL had it going much further south than this.

Rather it seems to be following the official NWS track. If the trough is not as strong as expected, that would screw up all the forecasts' for what ahppens after it clears the Yucatan Channel, but wouldn't that also mean much less shear.

So if it misses the Yucatan as its current track seems to indicate, but encounters less shear in the Gulf, is not that a very bad thing?
MIMIC "Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery "
5pm out...still a cat 5 at 160 with gusts to 200mph. No change in the forecast track.
The 5PM forecast is going to be broadcast live from the NHC on CNN according to Wolf Blitzer.
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

...WILMA CONTINUES TOWARD THE YUCATAN AS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC
CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO TULUM ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO
CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO
SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF TULUM TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 83.7 WEST OR ABOUT 285 MILES...
460 KM... SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN HURRICANES OF THIS
INTENSITY...AND ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES...370 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 892 MB...26.34 INCHES.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND JAMAICA THROUGH
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE FROM HONDURAS
NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY.

IF THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...17.7 N... 83.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 892 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.
Will, look at the path of Keith (2000), then read what I posted and maybe you'll get what I'm hinting at (maybe not the EXACT track).

There are a couple of factors I don't think ol' Max is taking into consideration.... I'll pontificate these later (perhaps tonight).
54. dcw
*sigh* The Fox people didn't have the 5PM update...how do I contact them, they obviously don't have anyone on hurricanes.
WX, I still think she'll miss Yucatan. Just my opinion.
Put it on CNN, I think Wolf Blitzed wants to see the bodies already and the weatherman that lost it during Katrina is going lose it again soon!! He's starting to shake apart.

Geeze, these guys are really something...

LMFAO
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

AGREEMENT AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH HAD BEEN VERY GOOD
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HAS COMPLETELY COLLAPSED TODAY. THE
06Z RUNS OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS MODELS ACCELERATED WILMA
RAPIDLY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL THREE OF THESE
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THIS SOLUTION...WITH THE GFDL SHOWING AN
EXTREME CHANGE...WITH ITS 5-DAY POSITION SHIFTING A MERE 1650 NMI
FROM ITS PREVIOUS POSITION IN MAINE TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
THERE IS ALMOST AS MUCH SPREAD IN THE 5-DAY POSITIONS OF THE 12Z
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE YUCATAN TO WELL EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. WHAT THIS ILLUSTRATES IS THE EXTREME
SENSITIVITY OF WILMA'S FUTURE TRACK TO ITS INTERACTION WITH THE
GREAT LAKES LOW. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WILMA HAS BEEN
MOVING SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OR SOUTH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND
THE LEFT-MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ARE NOW SHOWING WILMA
DELAYING OR MISSING THE CONNECTION WITH THE LOW. I HAVE SLOWED THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST JUST A LITTLE BIT AT THIS TIME...BUT IF WILMA
CONTINUES TO MOVE MORE TO THE LEFT THAN EXPECTED...SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE MADE DOWN THE LINE.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY THE
TIMING...HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY.

THE LATEST PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 892
MB...WITH PEAK 700 MB WINDS OF 152 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 140 KT. AIRCRAFT REPORTS...AS WELL AS MICROWAVE AND
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...INDICATE THAT THE INNER
5-MILE-WIDE EYE OF WILMA IS WEAKENING WITHIN TWO OUTER EYEWALLS...
ONE 10 MILES WIDE AND ANOTHER ABOUT 45 MILES ACROSS. IN THE SHORT
TERM...THIS MEANS THAT THE PEAK WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AS THE WIND
FIELD EXPANDS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE TIME FOR WILMA TO
REINTENSITY BEFORE IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN. WITH AN INCREASING
POSSIBILITY THAT THERE WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE INTERACTION WITH THE
YUCATAN...I HAVE LOWERED THE INTENSITY FORECAST SLIGHTLY IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/2100Z 17.7N 83.7W 140 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 18.0N 84.6W 135 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 19.2N 85.6W 145 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 20.4N 86.2W 145 KT
48HR VT 21/1800Z 21.6N 86.3W 120 KT
72HR VT 22/1800Z 24.0N 84.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 23/1800Z 27.5N 79.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 24/1800Z 36.0N 70.0W 65 KT
This hurricane has made me look like a fool....
i hav updated my blog- it has my analysis of the model changes
"ITS 5-DAY POSITION SHIFTING A MERE 1650 NMI
FROM ITS PREVIOUS POSITION IN MAINE TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA."

Who says these guys don't have a sense of humor
While it is good to see photographs from Paamul. Thank-you for that Cleo85. I have friends that live in that trailer park and so Paamul is an important point of reference. I also have a lot of friends in Playa del Carmen. This is what one Playa del Carmen residents comment about Cleos report.

I read the report from Paamul and have to say that most of it was total BS. There is gasoline and there is no panic, at least here in Playa. Very few have even put up their plywood yet. In fact, I drove by two lumber yards on my way back from lunch, and there were not even lines.

I believe that is a more accurate snapshot.
It looks like Wilma will drop to Category 4 by the next advisory, but recharge overnight...I still think she has NOT peaked yet! I think Wilma will join the top secret 880 Club (for storms below 880mb - only 9 typhoons are in it) sometime tomorrow with winds of up to 190 mph...
That chart only shows storms in October of major hurricane intensity (Category 3, 4 or 5)...
Dr Jeff,

Thanks for your advice about waiting another day. However, if it will be even a Cat 1, we will be forced to leave our mobile home, so what's the point of waiting and maybe getting stuck in a traffic jam? There are thousands of people across Florida living in mobile homes, because we can't afford the skyrocketing costs of housing here.

I take your blog seriously, because you always explain things so clearly. I appreciate this website very much.

I will hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

mouseybabe
Link check out that water vapor loop,...no wonder its heading for the Yucatan...
66. Tnek
Where did NOGAPS go?
67. MJH
MIAMI (AP) - - (10/18/05)-- The director of the National Hurricane Center is advising Gulf Coast residents to keep an eye on Tropical Storm Wilma.

Max Mayfield says "there's no scenario now" that would take Wilma toward Louisiana or Mississippi, but adds "that could change."
Hmmm, I see that the GFS was initiated with poor data. This could have caused the wacky track. Notice how the EURO,CMC, and NOGAPS stand their ground.
TIVO'ed the Mayfield presser...He wanted to share the confusion with the public. He knew everyone was talking about the new model runs. He knew people would let their guards down. He stated that yes, one model has it wandering around Cuba in 5 days, but that one had it in Boston just hours ago.

He felt the prudent thing to do was share the info--full disclosure. However he stated that most models still held onto the NHC forecast. He basically admitted that they cant be sure until it turns.

Also, no planes into WILMA until tomorrow. The ol' wait and see.
Is there an E in that poll, since my answer is:

e) Weaken temporarily, then begin to restrengthen
Mosuebabe, consider this: if in doubt get out... or rather if it gives you peace of mind to get ahead of the traffic and you know where to go (and can take your animals if you have them), what a relief you will feel when you get to your destination and don't have to dread watching the latest news and worry that you won't have time. If it turns out your area was okay, then celebrate without regret. Just a thought, as we all deal with these things differently.
I have good friends who are very dear to me in western Cuba. All who read this, please keep them in your thoughts and prayers, as well as those in the Yucatan, of course.
Will do tilda.
75. dcw
Crazy, vote for whatever you think it will do between, say, 12 and 4 AM tonight.
Run from water, hide from wind.....Learned that from Charley's eye ;last year.
i vote c
Anyone know how to secure a 28' travel trailer???
Does this mean FL is out of the woods as a far as a whooper storm. ie, are we looking at Cat 1 landfall or any landfall at all?
Willjax, theirs a first time for everything as this year has taught.
I vote C...she did it last night.
i think a major cat 3 storm will hit sw florida or the keys early sunday moring.......the new models runs should support this. Lefty blog is talking about all of this........
yeah grounder -- get the hell outta dodge.
18Z GFS run just in. Shows a Yucatan hit, then ENE to Key West at 8PM Sunday, then out around WPB 2AM Monday.
the euro model has been very consistant for this storm
Yep, the 12z was a fluke. 18z is almost back to reality.
DCW, what do you think this means for FLA?
Didn't leave for Charley won't leave for Wilma,Fred or Dino...
Didn't leave for Charley either. Mucho stupid on my part.
Image of Hurricane Wilma taken at 11:35 EDT from the Terra spacecraft. They have some issues with their uncalibrated data with projection, but still an interesting view of Wilma. Maybe someone can work out the kinks in the image to have a more normal view of Wilma. Top resolution is 250 m/pixel.
just heard an NHC forecaster on local MIAMI radio (615pm). The host asked about the "craziness" in the models.No mention of a wandering WILMA; NHC guy (Burton) spoke about how models were in agreement that storm would hit FL---divergence came with where WILMA would go after FL (hug the coast or out to sea). Maybe NHC sees things back on track. Or back this guy just came back from his dinner break?
I never thought a concrete wall would move. If the house took it once it WILL take it again.
I live in Palm Beach Gardens. Oh heck.....I need a psychic to tell us where this thing is going to go.
93. dcw
New recon report is in, Wilma restrengthening!

000
URNT12 KNHC 192158
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/21:39:30Z
B. 17 deg 42 min N
083 deg 41 min W
C. 700 mb 2149 m
D. 75 kt
E. 223 deg 009 nm
F. 287 deg 114 kt
G. 203 deg 002 nm
H. 892 mb
I. 13 C/ 3064 m
J. 16 C/ 2962 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C4
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 0824A WILMA OB 25
MAX FL WIND 149 KT W QUAD 19:57:30 Z

All is the same except 149kt instead of the 145 from previous.
All I have is the FSU site for model runs. Is there another link where I could see the runs earlier than later. I live and Broward County on the SE FL coast and would like to see the models sooner than later. Thanks.
95. dcw
!!

There is one other difference. The outer eyewall is gone and the inner one is contracting again...another insane deepening tonight?
"Posted By: coastie24 at 7:47 PM GMT on October 19, 2005.
That is a lot better news than this morning. But the poor people in Cozumel. Their infrastructure can't take these type of winds and storm surge. The downtown tourist area will be wiped out if it takes a direct hit. No more Senior Frogs."

Uh, Cozumel just survived a Cat 4 hurricane in July. Emily did NOT take out the downtown tourist area and, in fact, it survived quite well. Infrastructure in terms of electricity was close to wiped out completely but it was ALL repaired up and running within 2 weeks. Downtown within 5 days. Storm surge ocurrs on the windward side of the island which is 29 miles from the downtown businesses/homes on the leeward side. Yes, it will be bad and hurt financially re tourism in a very significant way but Cozumel will be back, just as it was after Emily, Roxanne and Gilbert.
Does this mean FL is out of the woods as a far as a whooper storm. ie, are we looking at Cat 1 landfall or any landfall at all?
98. dcw
Hmmm..quite a blob of thunderstorm activity in the Atlantic. TD25/Alpha anyone?
it does not mean that fl is out of the woods as far as a whopper storm.
It looks like it will only clip Cozumel barring any further changes.
Why are all the hurricanes forming after they pass, sat St.Thomas and those islands. They haven't gotten hit all year??
Prayers for all ...
103. amd
this is scary for southern florida. The storm is in the middle of an EWRC, but it is still incredibly well organized, winds are still borderline cat4-cat5, and the pressure is still below 900 mb.

It looks like once the EWRC is over in a few hours, it could restrengthen back to its levels earlier this morning.

dcw- are you thinking alpha could hook up with Wilma?

In the last satelite photo the eye has lost its clear formation.
would you guys like direct links to the following models./...??? NOGAPS, CANADIAN< GFDL, GFS, UKMET, and the
mm5fsu. They are all on the same page and are broadband friendly. I think us here in gainesville are gonna be cool, but im still wary of this NE turn. I think Tampa is in the Crosshairs (IMO). But let me know if you like this site.......


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
i see most people voting c or d in dcw's "poll"
such as it is. i vote A. It will
weaken overnight and replace it's eye.

hopefully 77 and lefty will be back on later and
give their take on what happened to the models. have
to stay tuned on wilma... done some pretty amazing
things so far. who knows what she'll do. btw - has a
male hit the US this year? The women sure have wreaked
havoc !!
Alpha coming...

As if this weren't enough, watch 55W, 12N. Lots of convection AND low shear AND decreasing shear AND very warm water.
MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.....lokks good on sat but upeer level winds are ripping it from southwest if it did develop it wouls take several days
Using Clyde's link, check out the last frame of the GFDL model. That looks quite frightening to me. I'd sure hate to be anywhere at sea between Sable Island and Cape Cod if that comes true.
KeriganGirl,

Dennis hit Pensacola this year way early..
duh! I cant type today :(
just top let you guys know the gfdl has flipped back to follow the euro, and ukmet and very close to the nhc track

I said before that the 12Z gfs was on crack. This IS a S FL event.
yeah i was telling everty one that u can not go on 1 run of a model u need to have 2 runs.

if u guys want to stop into my blog u all are welcome

Link
Damn.All I want to know is if I should go camping in Daytona for bikefest this weekend, First I am going, then I'm not, then I am and now who the heck knows..
Help from all of you experts out there
Thanks to Jeff Masters and Heidi (cleo95), most all of our crew of 6 families are now not going to Cancun, We were even able to use the blog to prove to the travel agency that the storm will be a hurricane, and therefore get a refund prior to the official declaration of Hurricane status.

The travel agency did not want to refund us if the storm was "just" a tropical storm. However, at least 2 families I know did go because personal connections in Playa told them things are great, as of 11AMCDT??? Can't reach them now. Any one know what the conditions are now at 7PM CDT?
Might seem like a dumb question but what is EWRC ??
ewrc = eyewall replacement cycle
I know i know!! eyewallreplacementcycle!!
hiya, jimjax neighbor!
Posted By: FLHurricaneChaser at 10:56 PM GMT on October 19, 2005. It looks like it will only clip Cozumel barring any further changes.

Posted By: sngalla at 10:56 PM GMT on October 19, 2005.
it does not mean that fl is out of the woods as far as a whopper storm.

Right you are sngalla ! The eye doesn't have to hit for there to be damage. In fact, past direct hits have caused less damage to Cozumel than clips just to the south of the island.

To someone who asked current conditions in Playa Del Carmen, which is only about 20 miles from Cozumel...phone report from Cozumel reported HEAVY rain a few hours ago with the first band of Wilma reaching there.

A reasonably good article on EWRC's:

Link
dang, elliston...ya beat me to it. Jax, i'd go to daytona, but head home by noon sunday at the latest--and fill up your car, too. Just a thought.
Thanks Elliston and Hi back at ya aquak.
OK Should I go to Daytona or not????????????????
nice computer models above
'lo all.. been lurking, time to ask some questions.

1.) If this misses the trof, (which this year it would make sense. This would be the worst case for Yucatan. Good for US.

2. If this misses the trof, would the entire Gulf be opened back up for a landfall?
Thanks folks......Now if I can just get my wife to go along with it. I figure we will be OK Friday night and Sat night but sunday might be a wet ride home
Everyone, nice reading today. Got to go for the night, must watch the Cardinals Baseball and get up early; back to work.
I will check back in tomorrow while at work to keep up on what is going on.
Good night!
Gamma
JimJax - this season and last has ruined my plans many times...and sometimes I regret not doing what I planned to do...best advise, wait until they update at 11PM...should be interesting...she is getting stronger, you can tell by her ir sat. Link
Dr. Masters, there is a mistake on your hurricane history page showing all October major hurricanes within 500 miles of Wilma. Y'all forgot Mitch!
Stormy.
Hi see you during the day but this is the 1st time I'm on at night. I will for sure wait till morning to make solid plans. We have a large group going to Dayton to camp at the Speedway but time will tell.
Thanks Jim
Jim Jax, not in here much at night, usually busy, but I missed the explosion last night and I think she's gonna do it again tonight...she seems to be slowing down and getting stronger.
How do you all feel about waiting til Friday in SWFLA to board up and get out. Just paid 75 dollars for gas and 500 on plywood and fasteners. Am I overreacting.
Wilma looks like it has taken more of a north "jog"!
someone might want to check to see if little Cayman Island is still there. Looking at the IR satillite loop, it appears to have just been nailed by quite a blob of convection spinning off Wilma. Although a long ways away from the storms center, the blob looked to have colder cloud tops than anything in the hurricane proper. That culd not have been fun to endure.
I just read and try to learn a little bit.. Some interesting converstaions go on in here.
I have a M/C group that is looking to me, the Prez, to tell them if we are making the Daytona trip or not. Like I am some kind of expert or something. HAHAHA
Thanks to all here for your insight and opinions and patience with a newbe...
jim
my wife called me and told me the Fox ticker had the storm going W-NE. Is that some weather jargon or are they just typoing it. I thought hmmm. Siamese storm fighting with itself.
Where did everybody go??
139. dcw
Hey, this year, storms CAN go WNE.
Hi all, anything new going on?

BTW: I am creating a registry of floridians. If you haven't done so already please go to my blog (click my screenname above) and add your name to the list. I plan to create a list of folks by county. There are already over 70 of us registered.
I got married in FL....TWICE....does that count?
JimJax - they are Link in lefty's blog, lots of people there.
Goodnight!
lol robert
Thanks everyone. Will check in again in the AM
Everybody be safe
I am pretty sure this storm's motion is WNESNEWS
The NHC has been saying that Wilma has been expected to make that gradual NW turn. I think it has been at least that long and it doesn't look like it is happening. If anything it looks more W then WNW doing a little wobbling of course. Any thoughts? Is she gonna keep right on going WNW?
I mean the NHC has been expecting the turn for over 24 hours now.
hey everyone. i was on last night but have been busy today. work, of course, and then getting all my supplies this evening. i'm done, stocked up and ready to handle whatever comes.
hey, ft. myers here, any revelations since 8pm?
i work for nbc-2, and for those of you who watch,
you know they're in freak out mode when they pull tom rector in on a weekday.
150. amd
just by looking at the weather channel IR satellite pictures, it seems that the ultra deep convection has fired up around the center, and that the eye is visible again.

The storm may be reintensifying already.
151. dcw
Anyone have a heat-content map for the Bay of Campeche? I see an Allen coming on.

There goes the eye!

Rapid Intensification Clock now at 5:00 and counting. I fully expect her to start firing up again around 2-3AM.
still too early to tell. what happens tonight and through the day tomorrow, sets the path for what more action to take

thanks to those that acknowledge the naples/bonita springs area. i know for one, i'm ready. hope everyone else is.

the groc store was out of bread tonight but the convenience store had plenty
For the last 4 hours, despite the wobbling, I believe Wilma is moving more NW than WNW. It looks to be heading towards the tip of Yucatan and closer to the channel than earlier this afternoon.
The motion has had a more northern component since around 6:00 PM EDT. The floater sat images show it is fairly east and north of the target line( which was moved westward @ 5). This leads one to believe that the NCH UKMET track looks increasingly good. Looks like it will just clip or miss the Yucatan. The big question is if the trough will:
1.) be "on time" to force the "right hook".
2.) be early and "cap the storm in the Yucatan/Cuba area.

Thoughts??
It does appear that Wilma is strenthening but it also looks like dry air is trying to get in on the NW side of the 'cane. That may put an end to the intensification currently going on.
156. iyou
dcw et al - from lefty's blog - link to SST'S etc. at - http://iwave.rsmas.miami.edu/heat/
My fellow Floridians please Relax.

Be prepared. Don't panic. Be patient. We are going make it through this. There is no Levy to break (Unless you live next to Lake Okeechobee). Take a friend who lives in a flood prone neighborhood into your home. Pool your resources.

During the off season, make yourself prepared for next years storms. Dont procrastinate. Add new windows. Check your roof. Setup a hurricane cabinet within your house for supplies.

I'm Sorry, I didn't mean to preach. I have a hard time dealing with the panic thats overcome the people in this state. If you live outside of a flood zone in a concrete house your fine. My grandfathers house has been here since 1909 (wood frame) and its still standing.

Enjoy.
Dr. Jeff Masters,
This is my first post but I have followed you since I moved here to Florida, the day befor Charlie hit. I would like to thank you so very much for all the wunderful information and all the time you put into this site.
I have a naive question for you. I want to know how or where I, myself can find the spagetti tracking model maps? I have two sisters in Cozumel right now and I am very concerned. If you or if one of the other knowledgeble posters here could help me I'd much appreciate it. Also does ooster think or know if the airport will still be open by early tomorrow morn? I'm hoping that they and their 3 elderly dogs can still get out. Thanks for any help.
Hiya from The Bahamas :)
BAMM now has it crossing Cuba and heading right for us --- a-la-Michelle :(
Here is a link to some line models...

Link
mybahamas - I am from Nassau, currently in Ft Lauderdale. My family is still in Nassau. Although I dont anticipate it following the Bamm, I noticed that as well, a little troubling
Heidi!!!! OMG! I know who she is. I would have Heidi aka Cleo85 focus on pictures and not commentary. That was a VERY misinformed and credibility damaging post. Lets not see another one. Sorry Heidi, but it had to be said. You had nieghbors pulling into Paaumul after filling up their tanks right there on 307 after your post, and you got Jeff to post that.
Thanx Socalweathernut!!! I appreciate the link. I'm a recent CA transplant to the Gulf Coast.
HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005
0300Z THU OCT 20 2005

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO PUNTA ALLEN. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
FROM SAN FELIPE TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING
COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND.

AT 10 PM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST
OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF
PUNTA ALLEN TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN
TO CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO
SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...
PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD
THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 84.3W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

...WILMA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...COULD
RE-INTENSIFY ON THURSDAY...

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO PUNTA ALLEN. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
FROM SAN FELIPE TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING
COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND.

AT 10 PM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST
OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF
PUNTA ALLEN TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN
TO CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO
SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...
PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD
THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST OR ABOUT
235 MILES... 380 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...
WITH SOME WOBBLES OF THE EYE. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN HURRICANES OF THIS
INTENSITY...AND ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILMA COULD
REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY ON THURSDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES...370 KM. NOAA BUOY 42056 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 49 MPH... 79 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 56 MPH... 90 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 894 MB...26.40 INCHES.

IF THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES PARTICULARLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO
8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN
ISLAND...AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HONDURAS THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...18.1 N... 84.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 894 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.
Sirena,
I hope you stay safe down there...
I noticed that you need to go to the home page from that link to see Wilma, but it is a good site to keep handy.
167. AmyB
I am currently booked to fly from DC to Miami to Puerto Rico on Friday. I can change my flight (but need to do so now) to fly from DC to Boston to Puerto Rico. Should I do this? I haven't read anywhere that this is supposed to affect PR. Will it? And if not as a hurricane, will it be raining all weekend? Thanks for any help you can give.
Amy
fly to PR via Boston...MIA may not "close" but flights usually get cancelled 24hrs before storm.
All of you NASCAR fans around Daytona know about "The Vortex"
that protects the area around the track from rain during the races. Go to Daytona. What are you gonna melt? Bad to the bone.
Socal, yes, I noticed that and was able to get myself to Wilma on the homepage...but still have a question for you...I noticed the time date was 5pm. So does this refresh itself at particular times with all the most recent models, or as a new model's info comes in?
I have noticed today, that the models have dramatically changed so I was hoping to stay up with it as it happens, or as they individually come in, without having to depend on someone to post their blog. Is this possible to do whle looking at the overall picture or not. Thanks, again!
171. jjf
Hey Sirena the time @ refers to the location of the storm. The times of the computer model runs are listed under them on the top legend in UTC (universal time) which is 4 hours ahead of EDT... so for example, GFDL run at 23:16 or 7:16 pm eastern time.
jjf, thank you too. That really helps me. Now I understand what UTC means to me on ET (is 4 hours ahead) and I know which are the more recent models to come in. Still want to know how often they refresh the map though. Now see it's 11pm, so do they update similarly to N.H.C?

Am moving on to Dr. Master's newest blog, hope to see and Socal there.
It's looking more and more that this storm might just miss Fl. altogether. Looks like cat.2 for sure.The track will come close to the Key's. So they will be on the west side of the storm. At this point it should track up along the east coast. New England area??? Will have to wait in this one.