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Wilma devastating Cancun; TD 25 a major threat to Haiti

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:19 PM GMT on October 22, 2005

The eye of very dangerous Category 2 Hurricane Wilma remains onshore the Yucatan mainland near Cancun. The most extreme winds of the eyewall have now been battering Cozumel and the mainland Yucatan Peninsula for over 24 hours. Sustained winds of 100 - 140 mph affecting a built-up resort area like Cozumel/Cancun for so long must have done extreme damage. Wilma has weakened to a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds, and may further weaken to a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds today as its center remains over land. Still, the damage to Mexico may double today as structures already weakened by 24 hours of relentless winds continue to receive another 12 hours of stress, and as new areas along the north coast of the Yucatan receive the eyewall's worst pounding.

Cancun radar, which is miraculously still functioning, shows the the eyewall of Wilma is degrading and starting to have gaps. The eye is now filled with clouds, and the cloud top temperatures of her eyewall clouds continue to warm as Wilma steadily weakens. When Wilma finally moves back over the ocean late tonight, she will probably be a weak Category 2 hurricane with 95 mph winds.

Conditions in Cancun
Wunderblogger LizinCancun reported yesterday on conditions in Cancun:

"We evacuated our home in Cancun yesterday and came 200 miles west to Merida. Our home sits about 100 feet away from the beach. The waves were crashing over our 6 foot tall sea wall yesterday before we left and destroyed the palapa that sits about 10 feet out in the water. We fully expect our home and all our belongings to be gone. We lost contact with all of our friends that stayed, cell and land lines are down of course as is power. We just talked with a friend that says the power is out, phones only working when the generators are running to pump out all the water. He said the hotel is blowing apart (not in the hotel zone) and all you can see when looking outside is a wall of water blowing sideways and pieces of things being shredded by the high winds, some huge."


Figure 1. Total rainfall for the week. Image generated by NASA's TRMM rainfall measuring satellite.

A deluge of rain
Rainfall amounts in Mexico from Wilma have been extreme. Isla Mujeres, just offshore from Cancun, has reported almost 35" of rain over the past 1 1/2 days, and at one point reported 4" of rain in one hour between 2 and 3 am EDT today. Rainfall amounts in Cuba have not been nearly so extreme--at least in the areas of western Cuba that are still reporting data. San Juan y Martinez measured 10.7 cm (4.2 inches) of rain the past 24 hours, and storm total rainfall amounts of up to 18 cm (7 inches) have been measured in Cuba's westernmost province. Grand Cayman received five inches, Jamaica's Kingston airport eight inches, and Belize four inches. The north coast of Honduras has had numerous locations receive ten inches of rain, with one unofficial report of 20 inches. Rainfall in Haiti reached 8 - 10 inches, and, triggered flash floods that killed 11 people.

How will Wilma affect Florida?
The latest 2 am EDT (06Z) model runs are in, and continue to agree on the basic scenario that Wilma will move offshore the Yucatan late tonight as a weak Category 2 hurricane. On Sunday, the storm will move slowly north and then northeast as westerly winds from a strong trough of low pressure start affecting the storm. There is about an 18-hour window of opportunity for Wilma to re-intensify to a Category 3 hurricane on Sunday. By Sunday night, Wilma will begin to accelerate, and wind shear will begin to substantially weaken the storm. By Monday morning, Wilma will cross the west coast of Florida between Fort Myers and the Keys as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane. My best guess is that Wilma will be a 100-mph Category 2 hurricane hitting near Marco. Storm surges tend to be worse with large and faster moving hurricanes, so I would expect a storm surge characteristic of a Category 3 hurricane, 10 to 16 feet, in and south of Marco, causing very heavy damage in that city. Fortunately, the area south of Marco is primarily uninhabited--the Everglades swamp. However, if Wilma comes ashore north of Naples--or further south near the Keys--storm surge flood damage in those areas could easily reach billions of dollars. Storm surge flooding should be only 2 - 4 feet on the east coast of Florida, where wind damage is the primary threat.


Figure 2. Storm surge map for southwest Florida.

Wilma's winds and rain
Wilma will be moving too fast to dump more than 5 - 10 inches of rain. The rain will be concentrated on the north side of the hurricane, since there will be a cold front there that will trigger more condensation. Areas to the north of the eye's passage will see winds a full Category--25 to 30 mph--lower than those on the south. This is because the storm's high rate of forward motion, near 25 - 30 mph, will add to the windspeeds seen on the south side of the Wilma's counterclockwise rotation, and subtract on the north side. Since the storm will be moving so fast, the duration of hurricane force winds will be just a few hours.

After Florida, then what?
After crossing Florida, Wilma should bring tropical storm force winds to the northern Bahama Islands, but not hurricane force winds. Wilma should pass close enough to North Carolina's Outer Banks to bring 40 mph winds there. Wilma is not expected to bring high winds to New England, but could bring 50 mph winds to Nova Scotia five days from now.

TD 25
Tropical Depression 25 has formed 200 miles southwest of Puerto Rico, and looks like a good bet to develop into a tropical storm later today. Long range radar from San Juan, Puerto Rico shows some increasing spiral banding and echo intensity, and satellite imagery shows a good outflow channel developing to the southeast. Wind shear of about 10 knots is eroding the northwest portion of the storm.

Since we are all out of names this year, TD 25 will be given the name Alpha should it develop into a tropical storm. Given the storm's expected track over Haiti, the 8 - 12 inches of rain expected may cause heavy loss of life in that country due to the inability of the deforested hillsides to handle flood waters.

I'll be back in the morning with the latest, or later today, if events warrant.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Jeff...........
Thanks! Just finished putting the shutters up. What a job.
outstanding Dr Masters (as usual) - please set up membership renewal on automatic - your site is a marvelous & unique resource which I hope will be available for many seasons to come! Thank you!!
4 more shutters to go..... What a muggy morning in WPB
Two storms affecting us in The Bahamas at almost the same time ... wowsers :(
my plywood still hasn't arrived :( Hope it is just tropical storm force here :(
Does anyone know of a link to a storm surge map of the Keys?
With what seems like soon to be Alpha coming in from the East and then Wilma coming in from the West, will Alpha push Wilma more north?
Not sure how soon Alpha would make it to the East Coast though.
Keyslady, here is the link...Link scroll down to find storm surge.
afternoon all.just checking in.i haven't been following progress at all this morning.how is it looking for the treasure coast of florida?
Where would the most significant threat for tornadoes be with a fast moving storm like this? And when should tornadic activity begin, does it only start at landfall or earlier. Thanks in Advance.
Ants! I have ants in the house now, so I know it won't be long... I'm in Palm Beach Gardens, and yes, it is tremendously muggy here today.
Ants here in Lake Worth also Zoo
Zoobie, the ants always know eh? Too bad they can't help put up plywood or shutters!
Yeah, it'd be great if the little guys could lend a hand. I'm not actually putting up shutters... my fiance (and room mate) left for a Vegas vacation two days ago and won't be back till Monday, er, make that Tuesday, most likely.
I'm 30 miles N of Gainesville and I've had red ants trying to get into my store for 2 days, they've never done that before.
wish that I had my plywood to put up :(

Ants here in Jacksonville, too...
NWS out of Miami is saying that this could be a major tornado threat on the SE side of the hurricane as it passes. The reason being a cold front from the northwest and the southerly winds on the south create an enviroment conducive to the development of tornados for Florida. Hurricane Isabel in 1964 had 13 tornadoes confirmed on the SE quadant on a similar pass that Wilma is expected to take. So South Florida and Keys are at this time most at risk starting tommorrow evening thru the day on Monday
20. SEFL
Well shutters all up and ready for whatever happens. Going to go out to dinner tonight, have a little champagne and sleep late in the morning!!!
21. OGal
Winter Springs here, hi all, we have carpenter ants all over everything---not a good sign. After the storm need to call Middleton. Where is Cantore????
22. dcw
I would think Wilma would keep Alpha more southerly...and if there is large loss of life we may actually have to see what happens with retired letters.
just found out that the delivery people don't even have my plywood yet :( :( :( Only one in my neighbourhood here in The Bahamas whose thinking of putting up anything ...
Hi, Pt here, do we see some rotation starting on TD25 on the San Juan radar or am I wrong? See Link by Jeff Masters at the top
Here is some information directly from my friend in Cozumel. Please if anyone has contact to direct help there ASAP for supplies, do so. Thanks, Colin

Hey!...I'm really glad I have my laptop, I as able to hook it up to the phone line and connect, I haven't left my house in 39 hours, and it's barely 11.15, we've had 2 very hard nights, the wind's been howling through the hurricane shutters so strongly, that the rain, which has been non-stop, is coming in through shut windows, it's so wet that it's opening slits in the window frames and water gushes in through there. My house is flooding from the upstairs towards downstairs...at first the NNE winds were going through my mon's room, as it switched WNW (during the daytime) we were able to go out on the balcony, since it's protected from the strong winds and rain, we filmed and saw in awe as the neighbors roof started to fly off, and their neighbors house fall apart (made out of sticks and tar paper roofing), I've got pics and video of it, so you'll soon see what I mean....we were able to get a glimpse of the eye, it wasn't the whole eye, even though it was bigger than cozumel (at 10.30 friday the eye was right next to us and was almost twice as big), as we had 10 min of the calmest winds so far, because it still was windy, as the eye was almost over us, my mom moved her car to where it was safe from the S winds we were supposed to get....we watched in shock as 8 guys came out of the house where the roof was almost completely off of...they slowly walked to a shelter, or to someone's house, but as they walked the winds started to pick up, by 5.30 we had our doors closed and went back to being in the dark, the wind was coming in harder than before, by this time wew were in my room, my door goes out to the baclony, and is covered by a tall part of the balcony, but the waterr was gushing in from how hard it was blowing, my brother's room is almost the same as mine, and his was flooding too (not a whole lot, but just so that is get's everything wet) so my house as flooding from upstairs down....the screen door from downstairs was ripped off it's hinges, our front door was blown open during the night, and we just had to stand hearing it slam over and over until morning, when we could shut it closed with some rope.... the wind and rain haven't stopped yet, we might get into a clearer part, but everything is so damaged, power lines are down, houses are wrecked, everywhere is flooded, and we have no idea when we'll get power back, when food and water will come, right now everyone only has a limited amount of supplies, I don't think anyone would've ever imagined the storm lasting over 40 hours....If you can whenever the storm is passed, send food and water, or any kind of aid possible, Katrina was bad, after all New Orleans is 2 ft under sea level, but Katrina was barely a category 4 when it hit, and it passed quite quickly, we've been here for 40 hours,, Wilma hit as a strong category 4 last I kne, but I'm sure it went up to a 5, right now Wilma is strong cat. 3, but being here it doesn't seem that it's mellowed down at all, and above all it's been moving soooo slow, making the damage even worse, it might be moving slow (so slow that now the weahter center is not specifying how slo, last I heard it was 5mph but it's slowed down) the satellite picture from yesterday is almost at the same spot it is today!! So if you can let anyone know what has happened here, because I'm sure I'm the only one on the island that has been able to tell anyone what has happened, please let them know we need help, maybe if they know before the damage is calculted, the help will come quicker
Sincerely
Jadie De Lille
The center of circulation of Wilma is slowly moving offshore Cancun now, and overall outflow is still impressive. It should be interesting to see the convergence of the cold front moving toward Florida (which by the way will put the high temp in parts of Central Florida into the middle to low 70's in the middle of next week) and Wilma.
Interesting projected path and the relationship to the media
Link
Anyone from Naples still here? Spoke with the FL Highway Patrol about an hour ago and the roads are pretty clear for those thinking of getting out.
Every structure is going through a stress test from hell.

Thanks for sharing that e-mail, gowland.
Still hanging in here on Cape Haze. My neighbor and I just went down the street and policed up a construction site of loose lumber. I tried contacting the builder, but couldn't reach them. Going to see if there is any better guidance by tonight. We have a "mutual aid agreement" with friends in Ft. Meyers - problem is that it might go between us both! Webcam up at Link
Good Grief, never thought of that, Cape Haze!! There are lots of houses going up in our neighborhood....arrggghh one more thing to worry about. Our escape plan involves a 7 hour drive (on a good day) with two large dogs. I guess we are hoping we don't have to do it.
Does it look like the most recent models have shifted north? Even the UKMET, which had been bringing Wilma ashore near Everglades City, now seems to show landfall closer to Ft. Myers. Is the 5:00 NHC forecast track likely to move back north some?

Link
"Given the storm's expected track over Haiti, the 8 - 12 inches of rain expected may cause heavy loss of life in that country due to the inability of the deforested hillsides to handle flood waters."

It's bad enough having names go into the Greek alphabet, but now it's looking like the name Alpha will have to be retired!
Naples here. We have reservations for Orlando Tomorrow so can't leave until then Will see what it looks like later this afternoon. We have until 6:00 to cancel our reservations if we decide it's safe to stay. Otherwise mini vacation. We'll try to take back roads to avoid 75
Just heard there's a mandatory evac for Bonita Springs now with a curfew going into effect.
Here's a translation of the 1:00 PM CST Hurricane Warning from Mexico.



"HURRICANE "WILMA" OF CATEGORY III, MOVES VERY SLOWLY TOWARDS the NORTH, the EYE Of the SYSTEM CONTINUES CLOSELY TOGETHER ON LAND OF CANCN.

Zone of alert
ZONE OF ALERTAMIENTO BY HURRICANE FROM SAN FELIPE, YUC. UNTIL CHETUMAL, QR.

Index of danger
SEVERE

registered Effects
torrential Rain is of 1.637,5 mm (Station of SEMAR) (Note: 64.84 inches)
Rain of 743 mm (29.25 inches) in Sian Kaan (Station CNA)
Waves of 5 to 8 ms (16.4-26.25 ft) in Cancn and Mayan Riviera.
Information of the tropical revolving storm to the 12:00 local h (17 GMT)

Location of the center
Coordinate : 21.4 North Latitude; 87.0 West longitude

Location:
20 km (12.5 miles) to the West (270) of Cancn, QR, and 30 km (18.75 miles) to the West (270) of Island Women, QR.

Maintained maximum winds: 185 km/h (115 mph)
Gusts of wind: 220 km/h (137.5 mph) (category III)

Movement
To the North (360) to 3 km/h. (1.875 mph)

Location of the nucleus
the center of the system stays on mainland, moving away of Cancn, QR gradually, extending cloudy bands of strong convection mainly the Northeast of the state of Quintana Roo. The later bands propagate up to 325 km to the East of the system, covering to Cozumel

Diameter of the eye: 35 km. (21.875 miles)
Total diameter of the cyclone: 750 km (468.75 miles)

Estimation of possible material damages and floods

Category III: Structural damages to houses small and auxiliary constructions, with small fissures in the coating walls; destruction of rolling houses; the floods near the coast destroy the smallest structures and the floating rubbish damages to the greater ones; the flat lands underneath 1,5 ms (50 inches) can be more flooded up to 13 km (8.125 miles) from the coast or more.
Accumulated maximum rain potential with of 600 mm (22.6 inches) or greater in the Northeast and East of the Yucatan Peninsula."


I find the total rainfall record incomprehensible (I'm 5'6", so that's up to my hairline, or thereabouts) - in a day or so (since the storm began - not the past 24 hours)

If you're religious, please pray for the people in Yucatan, and Cozamel in particular. If you're not religious, please do whatever your equivalent of praying is. And don't be surprised if the damage is worse than from Katrina's in New Orleans or Mississippi - and to yet another place many of us know, or have at least heard of, and love.
Having been on alert since Wednesday local stores have run out of evrything AND be able to re-stock. Plenty of ice,water,and gas still available.
Saw the post earlier about the ants, the ants are going crazy in Destin as well. Building very large stadium like domes. They have been at it for several days.
Hi Nightbloomer - am I insane? I am the only person in our entire neighborhood even considering leaving (including my husband). My Dad has offered his place in St. Simons Island Georgia - dogs are welcome too. I am ready to go NOW. I cannot understand why no one else is leaving - I think they are feeling safe due to Cat 2 predictions. Since we are in the Golden Gate Estates and our storm surge area is for Cat 4 or 5, that they feel safer. Am I making too much of this, given where we are located?? Am I crazy???
Still thinking Cat 2 at landfall Florida?
I wouldnt be too sure of this storm golden. Isnt the spot where its comming off is the place where katrina intensified into a cat 5?
I'm on the borderline for flooding from a Cat4 so a Cat3 passing to the North would probably flood us. So far the predictions don't seem to be indicating that as a liklihood. Possible though. I'm still waiting to see what's going to happen. I have plywood in the garage to board up if it looks like Wilma is going to come at us, but I'm not overly concerned yet. Just paying close attention.
golden gate - hit the road if you can afford to. I really believe the mistake of using hindsight to say "aw shucks, it wasn't so bad" is outweighed by being stuck in an event more sever than you anticipated. Wouldn't it be nice to see dad? :)
Hi Golden Gate I've been in Naples since 1978 and the only time I evaced was for Andrew. This one has me worried because of the storm surge. I live near a canal with direct access to Naples Bay If it weren't for that I'd stay We're in a cat2 flood plane
We have already put the plywood up, so we're all set that way. I am super-prepared - everything important is in plastic sitting by the door, ready to go. Suitcases packed - people supplies, dog supplies, food, water, flashlights, batteries, you name it, I have packed it or protected it. I have been hoping I could convince my husband to go. That's looking doubtful - but at least I have the peace of mind of knowing that I've protected the house as much as possible and we have everything we'll need if we get stranded for a week. I briefly considered leaving without the husband - but obviously, can't do that.
The only thing I'm concerned about is my cats DOg is going with but I don't have the cats shot records and the vet was closed today. They're going to stay with in-laws who are on higher ground and away from the water but I'll still worry. We're well prepared also, but like I said I'm concerned about the surge.
Anybody hear any more talk of evacuations out to Livingston?
not yet I think EOC was meeting at 3:00
for anyone who lives in brevard county: Schools are closed Monday, Shelters are opening at 10 am Sunday. Buses will be picking up all registered for a special needs shelter at 9 am. Brevard county will be calling for an evacuation of all mobile home and manufactured housing communities at that time
49. SEFL
It's bad enough having names go into the Greek alphabet, but now it's looking like the name Alpha will have to be retired!


I think it will officially be called Alpha2005, I don't think they intend to reture any greek letters
No new info from TWC. Mostly just a waiting game now I guess. :/
First time we've ever had a "W" named storm and they'll surely retire the name Wilma...
Considering that Naples is and has been at the center of the cone for days now, I have to say I am very disappointed in our elected officials that they have only narrowly focused on the coastal residents of Naples. All information has been geared to those west and south of 41. Now, I now that area is in the most danger, but it does seem to me that maybe our mayor could have spared one or two sentences directed to his other constituents. No one has ever addressed the situation facing those of us who are more inland. I've checked Collier's websites and have really not seen anything more than general hurricane preparedness info. Anyone with any more detailed info either on TV or on the web - please share!
53. SEFL
It's bad enough having names go into the Greek alphabet, but now it's looking like the name Alpha will have to be retired!


I think it will officially be called Alpha 2005. I don't think they plan to retire any greek letters. Just retire Alpha 2005.
54. SEFL
I've checked Collier's websites and have really not seen anything more than general hurricane preparedness info. Anyone with any more detailed info either on TV or on the web - please share!


What information would you like?
55. iyou
GoldenGate - You might be able to get the information you need at - www.cbs4.com/ - also, surge info on Norcross's noon report - live streaming video coverage starts at 7 p.m. - traffic cams as well/radar etc.
"maybe our mayor could have spared one or two sentences directed to his other constituents." - GoldenGate

Well, since we are outside of the city limits, we are not his constituents. I'm sure his major concern is for the multi-million dollar mansions along the coast.
Here's what I would like, for the mayor to have said something like this (after discussing coastal concerns):

For those east of 41 and our inland Naples communities, here are the possible scenarios of what could happen at these elevations (and then he lays out the various scenarios).

For our residents in Golden Gate and surrounding communities, you can call X phone number or check X website for details.

We may/may not/will call for evacuations if these conditions are met....

You get the idea.
might be arepost, i hav updated my blog. important info.
I You - thanks for the heads up for those sites...not familiar with Norcross. Santa Barbara, I'm starting to feel that way. I just feel like we could have been thrown a little bone in that press conference.
It looks to me that Wilma has put out to sea again.
61. asaj
hi all, this is an amazing site, so informative and helpful.

i have a simple question that i'd like to confirm:

if i live in miami, and the storm travels across florida to the norht of us, am i right in assuming that ALL of the winds will be coming from the southwest, due to the circular motion of the storm and the fact that there won't be any counter rotation if the eye is well north of us?

in other words, is there any chance that the winds will come out of anywhere but the southwest?

by the way, there's no signs of anything here, no one putting up shutters, or leaving, or even preparing - home dpot and publix was EMPTY last night.

thanks,

steve
I notice that Lefty420 posted in his blog about an hour ago that he thinks Wilma will make landfall as a Cat2 or Cat3 in the Venice area. Still seems a bit early to me to be making a predictions, but some folks have been doing it for days now.
All shutters up here except for the sliding patio door, don't want to live in a cave just yet. First time I installed them in this house, bought it in April and never bothered doing a dry run with them. Thank God for the 25mm socket I have for my drill for the wing nuts. Even if we don't get hit bad at least I know how to install the shutters now for Hurricane GAMMA!
"HURRICANE WILMA TO HIT FT MYERS AREA 40 HRS
EXPECT WIND GUTS TO CAT 3 - STORM SURGE OF CAT 3
MAJOR NOR'EASTER FOR NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
EXTREMELY FAST DEVELOPING TD#25 -- SHOULD NOT AFFECT U.S." -Steve Gregory

Urgent Update!!

JenD
::Operation Cantore needs to move North!!
::Lefty ROCKS *S
Sorry for the rant. I'm losing it a bit, LOL.
GG I think our County Commisioners need to give us more info True about Barnett though
Still couldn't get any plywood today for my house here in The Bahamas :(
Ah well :(
Cybr, that's a scary for Fort Myers and all of us south of there!
We have Alpha! :) :) :) :)
I'm not sure where the Florida landfall will be, but one thing I can tell you is that it is eerily quit here now. All the birds, turtles, squirrels ...etc are no where to be found. Reminds me of right before Charlie.
GG - all is good - you all are in an incredibly stressful situation & probably pretty burned out after this season! I am way up the coast & get worried (oddly hubbo really does not).

wellington - smart to cover up - I have to contend w/a claustrophobe in the house who wants us NOT to put up aluminum covers on BIG south facing windows b/c she "doesn't like living in a cave". I personally prefer no broken glass & minimal seepage. :)
GGate,

I'm here in the Estates as well. Still debating whether to send my wife and kids up north. I want them to leave, they want to stay. I don't leave because, as a CPA who works from home, I can't possibly package up all the confidential info I have here at my home, take down the computers after backing up everything, etc., etc. I also have 75 yr old neighbors who have been wonderful to us for over 7 years and I am concerned for their safety. I'd bail if I were you, my liability insurance doesn't cover my butt enough because the insurance co will say I was negligent if the info I have here is stolen even though I've taken every precaution possible except for destroying said records. Thanks to the lawyers I have to stay so I don't get smoked. #######'s. Best to you and everyone else in the cone.
Punta Gorda here, not liking the models shifting upward every time they are ran, boarding up in the morning. No ants to report, and the local birds don't seem to concerned.
74. SEFL
"I personally prefer no broken glass & minimal seepage. :)"

The principle purpose for shutters is not to keep glass from breaking per se...it is to keep the wind out and therefore your roof on!
WE HAVE ALPHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Gatorman - you have very lucky clients. I'd gladly leave, but hubby does not want to leave. I understand your family not wanting to leave you. The agony of wondering if you were okay would be unbearable.
G Gate and Gatorman: I also think it's odd that they haven't started an evacuation for other parts of Naples. Have you seen the storm surge maps? Link

If we're south of Wilma when it hits, add another category to where you're located.
Duh, there's a storm surge map right above us. I forget what blog I'm on.
Hey Marcomama - I have seen the surge maps and we are good I think for 14 ft. - 22 ft. - Cat 4 is our cutoff. I understand our street elevation is 15', house elevation is 19'. So those stats are pretty good. So far, no ants in the house, and I have plenty of birds and little furry creatures still running around in the yard, if that means anything....
G Gate: I'm not really on Marco, though I work there and spend a lot of my time there. I'm by 951 and 41 and all our little animals are running around. My cats are bothering me more, but that's 'cause I'm on the computer so often now.
Thanks for the info Jen. One thing you neglected to report was the following line near the end:

"(The NHC shows landfall near Naples and a track directly over Lake Okeechobee, and off the coast near West Palm Beach.)"

I guess we'll find out soon enough. :/
GOLDENGATE, I totally feel your pain, nary a mention of Cape Coral either, anywhere. It's as if that tiny little beach in the Ft. represents the entire Lee county coast. There are many of us on or close to the coastline here in CAPE CORAL, one of the biggest cities (sizewise) in FL! Whatever happens, my bitching aside, I hope everyone from top to bottom of FL makes it through ok.
Marcomama, my dogs hate it when I am on the computer. Like most pets, they want your undivided attention.
Hello Every One
This is my last message untill thursday ....
So Haiti Get Alpha and nothing is doing by the governement to evacuate people at the dangerous areas ..... May be some citys will have the same problem with Gonaives and the Prime minister will ask for help ...... for money ....
But the GOV didn't really post any warning at the time at talk to you. I was talking to 10 people in different area and no one know about a Tropical Storm for to night or tomorrow morning ! That's very bad .... I'm Affraid very affraid we will hit Hard ....... Very Hard......
I will be getting the video camera out and will be posting some storm vids on my website (www.sunraypc.com) if anyone is interested. I will publish direct video links here in the days to come if I have an internet connection. I hope it lasts longer then in previous storms... was the first thing to go in Frances, Jeanne, and Katrina (Even though Katrina hit 50 miles south of here as a minimal Cat1) You gotta love Adelphia.
LOL, Cape Coral, I guess your name says it all! I'm with you - wishes of safety and well being going out to everyone here.
JPoulard - Godspeed - you're in our prayers
I honestly think the NHC is holding out for the
NOGAPS runs. If the NOGAPS shifts this evening with it's
newest track I'd hope they would narrow the cone some.

Fact still remains the GFS has been consistantly predicting more north.

Still we all need to remain on guard.
JenD
::Operation move Cantore!!
::GFS and GFDL agree.
Marcomama,

Already factored in the wind speed on the S side. Figure it will be 130-145mph. Geez, I feel like a taxpayer waiting on 4/15 to see how bad I'm gonna get slammed. I'm still trying to get her to leave, getting a lot of resistance.GLTA
CyberTeddy: Where are you seeing the models?
I know what you mean, Gator -- only it's like it's been 4/14 for 3 days!! I know you'd like them to leave, but I wouldn't want to leave a family member behind eiter; not after Katrina and Rita.
Here you are at 5 PM EDT...the government of the Dominican Republic has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for the entire northern coast. A Tropical
Storm Warning is now if effect for the entire coastline of the
Dominican Republic.

At 5 PM EDT...the Bahamas government has upgraded the tropical storm
watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for the southeast Bahamas and
Turks and Caicos.

A tropical Strom warning remains in effect for the entire coastline
of Haiti.

Tropical storm center located near 17.0n 68.9w at
Brevard County Schools cancelled for Monday
So what if Alpha dumps loads of rain on Haiti and kills hundreds of people...how would we retire it?? I know this has been asked several times, but I don't know if even the NHC has an answer to that one.
Cape,
It's our local radar here in Orlando.
You can find it at wftv.com
JenD
::Operation move Cantore NORTH!!
::wftv.com
The breezes are slightly gusty here in St. Pete and I've only heard one bird all afternoon. Though it isn't extremely hot it feels humid and I've noticed the barometer falling slowly all day. I've also noticed that the forecast track keeps creeping more and more northward and the strike probabilities percentage wise from Tampa south don't differ all that much. The latest report says Wilma is beginning to edge out over water again and has actually drifted slightly west of due north. I still think further north then Ft. Myers-Tampa or Sarasota area. By the way the report has her at cat 2 with 100 mph winds.
The models for Wilma and Alpha have them both near the same location off the Florida east coast Monday evening.
Could Alpha be sucked into Wilma if they were to get close together or would Wilma push Alpha away from her?
5:00 advisory now puts us on the dirty side of Wilma. Guess the argument is gonna get a little more heated. To all in this area, God Bless.
Hey Dawgfan,

You guys escaped today. Hope Shockley's knee is ok. As much as I want the Gators to kick your butt I hate to see a kid get hurt. Don't know where you're located but I wish you and yours well.
Here is an article on the retiring alpha subject. It says that they would retire it if it is a major catastrophe, but doesn't say what they would do in future years (replace it with another name or what?)

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/09/0923_050923_stormnames.html
Over a very long period of time, all the greek letters will be used up. Maybe they should add Roman Numerals after the name, like Alpha II, Beta IV, etc...
Cybr: I don't see a legend for their models. Wonder why WFTV models are different then those posted here?
Gatorman - I am in Valdosta, GA just north of the Florida state line. I believe the cold front has passed through us or is about to, so we are not expecting any problems from Wilma. Yes, GA scraped by with several key starters hurt, but both Alabama and USC barely won last week. Aren't you sick and tired of seeing the Gators beat the DAWGS? I know I am!
hiya from The Bahamas :)
what kind of effect do you think we will have in The Bahamas from Wilma now that she is expected to be a stronger cane at landfall ?
GO GATORS or maybe come on gators!
Mybahamas, Wilma should be pretty weak and moving pretty quickly after it passes over Florida--like Jacksonville you're in for some rain and "breezy." :D

What island do you live on? I take the family to Treasure Cay for vacations :D

7
Looking back at the NWS advisories there are two things of interest. On the 11pm October 18th advisory, the sustained windspeed of Wilma was 65 mph. Six hours later on the 5am advisory, Wilma's sustained winds were 175 mph. That has to be a record for intensification in that short of a period of time.
The second thing is that on October 18th the track was to clip the west tip of Cuba and make landfall in South Florida on Saturday night. I know the line is just a projected guideline, but Wilma is currently about 300 to 400 miles east of where she was projected to be by now on the October 18th advisory. My point is that the current projected guideline could end up being off quite a bit by Monday. I just hope that the strength of this storm is dimininshed enough that it doesn't cause severe damage or loss of life.

Last year it was supposed to be a record for the first time that a state had been hit by four hurricanes in a single year since records have been kept. (Charlie, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne) This one will mean that it has happened again. (Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma).
Sorry, I meant that Wilma is 300 to 400 miles WEST of where she was projected to be by now on October 18th.
nope, I had it right the first time. LOL
Comments and observations

I am no means a weather expert not even a novice but I have studied the IR floaters and looked at the fronts. I tunrned on the graph that display the troph. It has changed. Do you notice that the troph has become bowed in the center. The extreme west side of the troph is digging deeper into the extreme west side of the Gulf while the center of the troph is bowed nothward. It seems that Wilma outer bands have bowed the troph. Could this cause Wilma to drift more westward and than North before it makes it turn toward FL??????
I wonder if there will be trop storm force winds in Tampa? The wind field is fopcast to expand as Wilma crosses Florida. Fort meyers is 140 miles south of Tampa.
i think everyone needs to stop paying so much attention to the exact landfall point, remember that hurricane force winds extend 85 miles from the center and likely even further on the south side once the storm hits, not to mention the tornado threat for all of s.fl. definitely anyone in the cone should put your shutters up and prepare, remember how katrina caught us here in miami by surprise.good luck to everyone here in fl. and i hope that tues. we will all be on this site reporting that we are ok. on a side note the wildlife has been awfully quiet here in my neighborhood today
tampa should at least have ts gusts, by the way i posted before saying hello to everyone so....hi everyone miami reporting in
href="headlines.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&myadc=1&traveler=0&article=6" target="_blank">Link

I have not been able to cut and paste a link on this blog. This is my final attempt if it fails to work. This is an interesting graphic about the possible merging of Wilma and Alpha.
btw, to help my little toddler take his mind off his parents stressing about Wilma I produced this happy little track for him. You might like it, too :)

Link
Here is the article from accuweather, cut and paste it into your browser

http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&myadc=0&traveler=0&article=6
Hi there mybahamas. I hope your place holds up without the plywood! I have a niece on Grand Bahama who says she's going to stay (she's new, teaching in an international school, just arrived in August, saw the birth of Katrina and was scared then). I advised her to be prepared to evacuate a couple of days ago but...

Do you know what kind of surge to expect?

Is there any kind of weather centre or other good local source of info on the net you could link me to please?

Otherwise hoping for the best...
That Accuweather scenario looks like another Perfect Storm. Fishing captains, watch out!
My weather radio just alarmed reporting a possible tornado in northern Palm Beach County. Here in West Palm Beach it is dead calm.
Hi Dawgfan,

Have to admit I like beating them Dawgs every year. Gotta run to church, take care.
121. OGal
Hi all,finally I guess this storm is on its way. My husband just left to get four gerry cans filled, incase we need our generator. Believe me South Florida, I want it to all go away. I don't want anyone to be affected. Let's all promise to get back in touch tomorrow so we know everyone is ok, and if any of us can help our fellow weather bloger friends let's do it. Stay safe everyone and Central Florida this is no walk in the park for us. My son is a student pilot at Delta Academy and they are in the process of flying all the 152s,172s,Arrows, and Seminoles to Selma, Alabama.